Why the big panic about whether the Indian variant become “the dominant variant”. Something’s got to be the dominant variant. Unless somebody can demonstrate evidence that the “Indian” variant is more harmful and/or vaccine evasive than those it replaces (beyond just “lots of people have died in India in Indian specific circumstances”) what’s the problem? Might even be doing us a favour if it’s less harmful.
I’d love to see the source but apparently there was an Indian doctor/scientist on one of the news programmes the other day saying, “I’m not sure why the English are so worried about the Indian variant, it’s the English variant that is scaring us!”
Yes, doctors in India are overwhelmed by what they call the “English Variant” as much as by what we call the “Indian Variant”. Both are bad, but numbers thankfully appear to be turning in the right direction.
We have no Indian variant on the island as yet, so predictably some residents now want North Island walled off.
Today's opening up is like a vast tidal wave finally receding, giving us the first chance to count the drowned.
On my local high street I can see that several businesses - which I presumed were just temporarily shuttered - are, in fact, never going to reopen. The To Let signs are up. Very sad
Boris and Sunak have to navigate us through these economic white waters, which lie in wait beyond the Falls
Did you miss Frost earlier?
He wants to hire someone outside Government to find a benefit of Brexit...
Maybe you should apply
The benefit of Brexit is that we now hire and fire those that rule us
You hate Boris. I get that. You can vote his party into oblivion at the next election, you can campaign on the street to make others vote the same, you can make your voice heard in British media to tell everyone of his sins, and thereby speed his fall. It's called democracy
What if you hate Ursula von der Fucknows, what if you are outraged by the way her cabal of obscurities mishandled EU vaccine procurement? What can you do about her, and that?
Nothing. Nada. Nil. Tough shit. She's nominated for the job and she's not elected. She is immune
That is the beginning and the end of the Brexit benefits. Democracy and sovereignty. It's all we wanted
Today's opening up is like a vast tidal wave finally receding, giving us the first chance to count the drowned.
On my local high street I can see that several businesses - which I presumed were just temporarily shuttered - are, in fact, never going to reopen. The To Let signs are up. Very sad
Boris and Sunak have to navigate us through these economic white waters, which lie in wait beyond the Falls
Did you miss Frost earlier?
He wants to hire someone outside Government to find a benefit of Brexit...
Maybe you should apply
The benefit of Brexit is that we now hire and fire those that rule us
You hate Boris. I get that. You can vote his party into oblivion at the next election, you can campaign on the street to make others vote the same, you can make your voice heard in British media to tell everyone of his sins, and thereby speed his fall. It's called democracy
What if you hate Ursula von der Fucknows, what if you are outraged by the way her cabal of obscurities mishandled EU vaccine procurement? What can you do about her, and that?
Nothing. Nada. Nil. Tough shit. She's nominated for the job and she's not elected. She is immune
That is the beginning and the end of the Brexit benefits. Democracy and sovereignty. It's all we wanted
You still hate her and you still can't get rid of her...
Today's opening up is like a vast tidal wave finally receding, giving us the first chance to count the drowned.
On my local high street I can see that several businesses - which I presumed were just temporarily shuttered - are, in fact, never going to reopen. The To Let signs are up. Very sad
Boris and Sunak have to navigate us through these economic white waters, which lie in wait beyond the Falls
Did you miss Frost earlier?
He wants to hire someone outside Government to find a benefit of Brexit...
Maybe you should apply
The benefit of Brexit is that we now hire and fire those that rule us
You hate Boris. I get that. You can vote his party into oblivion at the next election, you can campaign on the street to make others vote the same, you can make your voice heard in British media to tell everyone of his sins, and thereby speed his fall. It's called democracy
What if you hate Ursula von der Fucknows, what if you are outraged by the way her cabal of obscurities mishandled EU vaccine procurement? What can you do about her, and that?
Nothing. Nada. Nil. Tough shit. She's nominated for the job and she's not elected. She is immune
That is the beginning and the end of the Brexit benefits. Democracy and sovereignty. It's all we wanted
You still hate her and you still can't get rid of her...
I’m not sure Stodge has seen tonight’s model runs. GFS, GEM and ECM all agree on the Azores High moving in middle of next week. Nobody is talking about or even wants a “heatwave”, just some fine weather. Mid range outlook now pretty decent.
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
Zoe covid data for new infections is reducing.
Yes. Zoe is good as a leading indicator of trends, like the 111 triage data, useless at a local level mind.
I’m not sure Stodge has seen tonight’s model runs. GFS, GEM and ECM all agree on the Azores High moving in middle of next week. Nobody is talking about or even wants a “heatwave”, just some fine weather. Mid range outlook now pretty decent.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
I think it's unfortunate because it's a day 'against' things. It would seem to me that a day like that encourages people to look for negative behaviour in others rather than celebrate good things.
I fancy a bet on Spurs and Arsenal to both get relegated next season.
That’s a shame. I love a one club man. Theres a lot to be said for it. Staying in the PL is a surprise. There’s no guarantee he’ll win anything at Chelsea or Man Utd, so unless it’s City, why bother?
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
I think it's unfortunate because it's a day 'against' things. It would seem to me that a day like that encourages people to look for negative behaviour in others rather than celebrate good things.
I mean there's a day for everything, I wouldn't read too much into it.
We have a day against dragons after all. The 23rd April.
I fancy a bet on Spurs and Arsenal to both get relegated next season.
That’s a shame. I love a one club man. Theres a lot to be said for it. Staying in the PL is a surprise. There’s no guarantee he’ll win anything at Chelsea or Man Utd, so unless it’s City, why bother?
The benefit of Brexit is that we now hire and fire those that rule us
How do we fire life peer Lord Frost?
I remeber when underperfoming MP Zsc Goldsmith was kicked out - one of the benefits of FPTP if I remeber the Tory manifesto correctly. Whatever happened to him
The opinion polls suggest that Labour is currently attracting around 33%. Given the absolutely torrid time that Labour has had over the last month, it strikes me that it is remarkably resilient. If I just read posts on here for my political information, I'd expect Labour to be on around 10% - awful leader, divided, woke-obsessed etc.
I don't think you can write off a party that attracts 33% even when it is regarded as screamingly unpopular by most commentators, on here and elsewhere, and is being slaughtered in the press. Obituaries are premature.
The Tories were on the same back in the early naughties and people were writing them off all the time. The question is can Labour repeat their recovery?
Yes, I agree. And Labour was in the same place after 1983, written off, dead in the water. Both our major parties have proved very resilient. And yes, I do expect Labour to stage a recovery. Maybe not enough for 2023/24, but I wouldn't rule it out.
It just strikes me as notable that even at such a low ebb, which even its supporters acknowledge, around a third of people would still vote Labour.
I think Labour are in a much deeper, darker hole than in 1983 because of the additional problems of Scotland & the Red Wall.
That said, the right leader can make a huge, huge difference (the Jacinda Effect).
The problem Labour face is that it is their opponents who are benefitting from the Jacinda Effect.
Both Nicola and Boris (in their very different ways) have turned out to be excellent vote-getters for Labour's opponents.
My guess is that Labour's best chance of recovery is when one of those two goes. Preferably both, from Labour's POV.
Scotland will be very hard imo, Sturgeon or not, but 100% agreed about Johnson. Without him, and I mean HIM, this rather odd manifestation of the Tory Party would imo lose much of their appeal to WWC leavers in particular and apolitical floaters in general. That's a lot of seats.
Not sure. Think you can overlook that May made quite a lot of progress in “red wall” seats. Possible it really was more about policy than personality.
There's been a Lab to Con trend there for a long time, this is true, and I think the Brexit/Johnson combo has supercharged it. I'm not 100% sure what's driving it either. I come from the Red Wall but that's a long time ago now. What I do know is I'd be more confident about Labour's prospects at the next GE against any Tory leader bar this one.
Hypothesis|: Any Labour leader against any Tory leader has this problem in England until they have solved it.
If you make a long line of Tory seats from, say, richest to poorest, house prices, attitudes to social issues, most to least educated and other things you get a spectrum or continuum. Christchurch may haver little in common with Hartlepool but they hold hands indirectly along a long spectrum. The average seat along this line is a Tory one
If you do the same with Labour seats you get clumps instead - three large and overlapping ones: Posh/educated; ethnic minority; very urban. Not a continuum or spectrum. Remarkably little therefore in common.
If you were to average them out you would get not a Labour seat but a Tory one. There is an average Tory seat. There isn't an average Labour seat.
The fourth Labour clump was the red wall. It is in the process of vanishing.
Addressing them all is not easy. Can it be done? And where do the 125 extra seats come from?
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
I would not be at all surprised. The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account). I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
The benefit of Brexit is that we now hire and fire those that rule us
How do we fire life peer Lord Frost?
I remeber when underperfoming MP Zsc Goldsmith was kicked out - one of the benefits of FPTP if I remeber the Tory manifesto correctly. Whatever happened to him
In the interests of fairness, the Commons could pass laws stripping peers of titles, I assume.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
I think it's unfortunate because it's a day 'against' things. It would seem to me that a day like that encourages people to look for negative behaviour in others rather than celebrate good things.
I mean there's a day for everything, I wouldn't read too much into it.
We have a day against dragons after all. The 23rd April.
No we don't, that's the point, we have a day 'for' St George. We have remembrance Sunday, not 'Day against ungrateful people who don't respect our armed forces Sunday'. Looking at things positively is always the way forward - looking for the negative is counter-productive.
*Yes I am aware of the irony of this itself being a negative observation.
I can confirm you *can* get a *pint* in a *pub* in *Scotland (well Aberdeen at least)t*
A hard job, but someone has to do it! In my village we have 4 licensed premises. The hotel 3 doors down hasn't reopened yet. The legion across the road from the hotel hasn't reopened and I'm not a member anyway. The pub has reopened but it isn't somewhere I would go to. And then there's a bizarre wee bar at the opposite end that looks like it has folded.
We've had two or three heavy downpours here in lowland east London this afternoon.
Before this place turns into netweather.tv, those hoping for a heatwave - I can't see it. Settled and warmer by the middle of next week perhaps but for me the High pressure is building in the wrong place for heat fans (more to the north and west than to the east). No sign of a "plume" of hot air from the Sahara either but we've enjoyed or endured a prolonged period of below average temperatures in London.
Should be 18c in mid May but 15c today.
Last year was exceptional. This year, well, won't be.
Just how it is.
This year is exceptional - just in the wrong direction.
Last year was exceptional for the good, this year is exceptional for the bad. Average the two and the average across the two-year period would compare to normal averages, but contrast the two and this year's weather is horrendous.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
I think it's unfortunate because it's a day 'against' things. It would seem to me that a day like that encourages people to look for negative behaviour in others rather than celebrate good things.
I mean there's a day for everything, I wouldn't read too much into it.
We have a day against dragons after all. The 23rd April.
No we don't, that's the point, we have a day 'for' St George. We have remembrance Sunday, not 'Day against ungrateful people who don't respect our armed forces Sunday'. Looking at things positively is always the way forward - looking for the negative is counter-productive.
*Yes I am aware of the irony of this itself being a negative observation.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
I think it's unfortunate because it's a day 'against' things. It would seem to me that a day like that encourages people to look for negative behaviour in others rather than celebrate good things.
I mean there's a day for everything, I wouldn't read too much into it.
We have a day against dragons after all. The 23rd April.
No we don't, that's the point, we have a day 'for' St George. We have remembrance Sunday, not 'Day against ungrateful people who don't respect our armed forces Sunday'. Looking at things positively is always the way forward - looking for the negative is counter-productive.
*Yes I am aware of the irony of this itself being a negative observation.
November 5th is "For" Guy Fawkes
November 5th is "for" a piss up around a big-ass fire
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
“ too many immigration liberals respond to it by falling into the trap set for them by the home secretary. First they howl about her brutish immorality. Then they hope that mere facts — illegal immigration is a small proportion of the total; most asylum claims are found to be genuine — will be enough to satisfy public appetite for effective enforcement of border rules. The Brexit vote shows how ineffective such tactics are. Calling Patel a nasty thug goes down well in online echo chambers but it won’t persuade a single voter who agrees with her policies to think again. If anything, it boosts her support.”
Is it a bit insane that somehow Greater Glasgow & Clyde has 60 cases today and this is sufficient to be stuck in Level 3 not Level 2, or am I being daft?
I can confirm you *can* get a *pint* in a *pub* in *Scotland (well Aberdeen at least)t*
A hard job, but someone has to do it! In my village we have 4 licensed premises. The hotel 3 doors down hasn't reopened yet. The legion across the road from the hotel hasn't reopened and I'm not a member anyway. The pub has reopened but it isn't somewhere I would go to. And then there's a bizarre wee bar at the opposite end that looks like it has folded.
"A hard job, but someone has to do it!"
Yup!!! A friend asked me yesterday how I manage to cope - I said "an enthusiasm for beer"
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
Is it a bit insane that somehow Greater Glasgow & Clyde has 60 cases today and this is sufficient to be stuck in Level 3 not Level 2, or am I being daft?
2023 seems entirely plausible if things are going well and would be consistent with 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005.
May or June 2023 would be earlier than those precedents. October 2023 would be more reasonable - and also the earliest realistic date to rely on boundary changes
Today's opening up is like a vast tidal wave finally receding, giving us the first chance to count the drowned.
On my local high street I can see that several businesses - which I presumed were just temporarily shuttered - are, in fact, never going to reopen. The To Let signs are up. Very sad
Boris and Sunak have to navigate us through these economic white waters, which lie in wait beyond the Falls
Did you miss Frost earlier?
He wants to hire someone outside Government to find a benefit of Brexit...
Maybe you should apply
The benefit of Brexit is that we now hire and fire those that rule us
You hate Boris. I get that. You can vote his party into oblivion at the next election, you can campaign on the street to make others vote the same, you can make your voice heard in British media to tell everyone of his sins, and thereby speed his fall. It's called democracy
What if you hate Ursula von der Fucknows, what if you are outraged by the way her cabal of obscurities mishandled EU vaccine procurement? What can you do about her, and that?
Nothing. Nada. Nil. Tough shit. She's nominated for the job and she's not elected. She is immune
That is the beginning and the end of the Brexit benefits. Democracy and sovereignty. It's all we wanted
You still hate her and you still can't get rid of her...
Apparently on Lancaster council Labour have fallen out with greens and the ecosocialists (former Labour) and have let tories in to committee chairs because they refused to take the seats.
Today's opening up is like a vast tidal wave finally receding, giving us the first chance to count the drowned.
On my local high street I can see that several businesses - which I presumed were just temporarily shuttered - are, in fact, never going to reopen. The To Let signs are up. Very sad
Boris and Sunak have to navigate us through these economic white waters, which lie in wait beyond the Falls
Did you miss Frost earlier?
He wants to hire someone outside Government to find a benefit of Brexit...
Maybe you should apply
The benefit of Brexit is that we now hire and fire those that rule us
You hate Boris. I get that. You can vote his party into oblivion at the next election, you can campaign on the street to make others vote the same, you can make your voice heard in British media to tell everyone of his sins, and thereby speed his fall. It's called democracy
What if you hate Ursula von der Fucknows, what if you are outraged by the way her cabal of obscurities mishandled EU vaccine procurement? What can you do about her, and that?
Nothing. Nada. Nil. Tough shit. She's nominated for the job and she's not elected. She is immune
That is the beginning and the end of the Brexit benefits. Democracy and sovereignty. It's all we wanted
You still hate her and you still can't get rid of her...
But we did. From interfering in our lives.
She still seems to interfere in @Leon 's life quite a lot
I have zero doubt that India was red listed too late but the problem with this outrage is that it requires the new variant to trigger a substantial third wave to cut through. If that wave doesn’t happen (there will be an increase in cases but when and by how much is open to debate) the current criticism goes nowhere - indeed looks a bit alarmist. So BJ’s critics are in the invidious position of having to hope that the prophesied doom comes to pass. As with Brexit. Probably best to keep powder dry for now.
Today's opening up is like a vast tidal wave finally receding, giving us the first chance to count the drowned.
On my local high street I can see that several businesses - which I presumed were just temporarily shuttered - are, in fact, never going to reopen. The To Let signs are up. Very sad
Boris and Sunak have to navigate us through these economic white waters, which lie in wait beyond the Falls
Did you miss Frost earlier?
He wants to hire someone outside Government to find a benefit of Brexit...
Maybe you should apply
The benefit of Brexit is that we now hire and fire those that rule us
You hate Boris. I get that. You can vote his party into oblivion at the next election, you can campaign on the street to make others vote the same, you can make your voice heard in British media to tell everyone of his sins, and thereby speed his fall. It's called democracy
What if you hate Ursula von der Fucknows, what if you are outraged by the way her cabal of obscurities mishandled EU vaccine procurement? What can you do about her, and that?
Nothing. Nada. Nil. Tough shit. She's nominated for the job and she's not elected. She is immune
That is the beginning and the end of the Brexit benefits. Democracy and sovereignty. It's all we wanted
You still hate her and you still can't get rid of her...
But we did. From interfering in our lives.
She still seems to interfere in @Leon 's life quite a lot
I slightly fancy her. I don't know why. She's not my target demographic
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
It's in the same box as wibbling on about food banks and the bedroom tax. Fixating on minorities doesn’t win you a majority.
I don't think what Keir is promoting is a minority view.
In any case, it's just a tweet man!
Of course being against homophones etc is not a minority view. Just as not wanting the poor to starve is not a minority view.
The issue is that by constantly giving the impression that Starmer and Labour are fixated on minority issues, the average red waller comes to the conclusion that there is nothing on offer for them. Meanwhile Bozo talks about levelling up, recruiting coppers and nurses and any manner of other attractive policies.
I have my last exam (probably ever) on Wednesday so I can't enjoy the pubs just yet.
Good luck.
I'm currently reading about whistleblowing acts in various countries.
So if say a Brit working for an American company with a subsidiary company in Germany, I'm working out what legal protections they enjoy and if they are simultaneously adhering to the whistleblowing act in one jurisdiction whilst breaking the law in another jurisdiction.
I have my last exam (probably ever) on Wednesday so I can't enjoy the pubs just yet.
Good luck.
I'm currently reading about whistleblowing acts in various countries.
So if say a Brit working for an American company with a subsidiary company in Germany, I'm working out what legal protections they enjoy and if they are simultaneously adhering to the whistleblowing act in one jurisdiction whilst breaking the law in another jurisdiction.
I have my last exam (probably ever) on Wednesday so I can't enjoy the pubs just yet.
Good luck.
I'm currently reading about whistleblowing acts in various countries.
So if say a Brit working for an American company with a subsidiary company in Germany, I'm working out what legal protections they enjoy and if they are simultaneously adhering to the whistleblowing act in one jurisdiction whilst breaking the law in another jurisdiction.
This is a theoretical discussion.
You hope - but given America's love to extend their jurisdiction where ever they can I doubt it's as theoretical as you think it is.
I have my last exam (probably ever) on Wednesday so I can't enjoy the pubs just yet.
Good luck.
I'm currently reading about whistleblowing acts in various countries.
So if say a Brit working for an American company with a subsidiary company in Germany, I'm working out what legal protections they enjoy and if they are simultaneously adhering to the whistleblowing act in one jurisdiction whilst breaking the law in another jurisdiction.
This is a theoretical discussion.
The employment law answer is quite simple. The regulatory/criminal implications are more complex.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
It's in the same box as wibbling on about food banks and the bedroom tax. Fixating on minorities doesn’t win you a majority.
I don't think what Keir is promoting is a minority view.
In any case, it's just a tweet man!
Of course being against homophones etc is not a minority view. Just as not wanting the poor to starve is not a minority view.
The issue is that by constantly giving the impression that Starmer and Labour are fixated on minority issues, the average red waller comes to the conclusion that there is nothing on offer for them. Meanwhile Bozo talks about levelling up, recruiting coppers and nurses and any manner of other attractive policies.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
It's in the same box as wibbling on about food banks and the bedroom tax. Fixating on minorities doesn’t win you a majority.
I don't think what Keir is promoting is a minority view.
In any case, it's just a tweet man!
Of course being against homophones etc is not a minority view. Just as not wanting the poor to starve is not a minority view.
The issue is that by constantly giving the impression that Starmer and Labour are fixated on minority issues, the average red waller comes to the conclusion that there is nothing on offer for them. Meanwhile Bozo talks about levelling up, recruiting coppers and nurses and any manner of other attractive policies.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
It's in the same box as wibbling on about food banks and the bedroom tax. Fixating on minorities doesn’t win you a majority.
I don't think what Keir is promoting is a minority view.
In any case, it's just a tweet man!
Of course being against homophones etc is not a minority view. Just as not wanting the poor to starve is not a minority view.
The issue is that by constantly giving the impression that Starmer and Labour are fixated on minority issues, the average red waller comes to the conclusion that there is nothing on offer for them. Meanwhile Bozo talks about levelling up, recruiting coppers and nurses and any manner of other attractive policies.
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
Something like +7 compared to +24 I think
So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.
I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.
I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.
I have my last exam (probably ever) on Wednesday so I can't enjoy the pubs just yet.
Good luck.
I'm currently reading about whistleblowing acts in various countries.
So if say a Brit working for an American company with a subsidiary company in Germany, I'm working out what legal protections they enjoy and if they are simultaneously adhering to the whistleblowing act in one jurisdiction whilst breaking the law in another jurisdiction.
This is a theoretical discussion.
You hope - but given America's love to extend their jurisdiction where ever they can I doubt it's as theoretical as you think it is.
Yup, the Natwest Three feature heavily in my briefings to traders.
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
I would not be at all surprised. The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account). I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
It's in the same box as wibbling on about food banks and the bedroom tax. Fixating on minorities doesn’t win you a majority.
I don't think what Keir is promoting is a minority view.
In any case, it's just a tweet man!
Of course being against homophones etc is not a minority view. Just as not wanting the poor to starve is not a minority view.
The issue is that by constantly giving the impression that Starmer and Labour are fixated on minority issues, the average red waller comes to the conclusion that there is nothing on offer for them. Meanwhile Bozo talks about levelling up, recruiting coppers and nurses and any manner of other attractive policies.
I'm glad that Sir Kir Royale is taking a stand against "biphobia"
I hear biphobia everywhere and it needs to be dealt with.
"You know who I hate? People who aren't certain. I hate them with their Oh I like pizza but I ALSO like lasagne. Fuck them and their improved choice of partners"
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
It's in the same box as wibbling on about food banks and the bedroom tax. Fixating on minorities doesn’t win you a majority.
I don't think what Keir is promoting is a minority view.
In any case, it's just a tweet man!
Of course being against homophones etc is not a minority view. Just as not wanting the poor to starve is not a minority view.
The issue is that by constantly giving the impression that Starmer and Labour are fixated on minority issues, the average red waller comes to the conclusion that there is nothing on offer for them. Meanwhile Bozo talks about levelling up, recruiting coppers and nurses and any manner of other attractive policies.
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
I would not be at all surprised. The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account). I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
I’m all about motivated reasoning. Take everything I say with a pinch of salt.
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
I would not be at all surprised. The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account). I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
Hmmm....
Never been able to make head nor tail of that graph.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
It's in the same box as wibbling on about food banks and the bedroom tax. Fixating on minorities doesn’t win you a majority.
I don't think what Keir is promoting is a minority view.
In any case, it's just a tweet man!
Of course being against homophones etc is not a minority view. Just as not wanting the poor to starve is not a minority view.
The issue is that by constantly giving the impression that Starmer and Labour are fixated on minority issues, the average red waller comes to the conclusion that there is nothing on offer for them. Meanwhile Bozo talks about levelling up, recruiting coppers and nurses and any manner of other attractive policies.
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
I would not be at all surprised. The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account). I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
Hmmm....
Have to say that of your excellent and informative graphs I always have trouble with this one.
Today is the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.
Labour is committed to promoting and defending the rights of our LGBT+ communities. #IDAHOBIT2021
What's wrong with that?
It's in the same box as wibbling on about food banks and the bedroom tax. Fixating on minorities doesn’t win you a majority.
I don't think what Keir is promoting is a minority view.
In any case, it's just a tweet man!
Of course being against homophones etc is not a minority view. Just as not wanting the poor to starve is not a minority view.
The issue is that by constantly giving the impression that Starmer and Labour are fixated on minority issues, the average red waller comes to the conclusion that there is nothing on offer for them. Meanwhile Bozo talks about levelling up, recruiting coppers and nurses and any manner of other attractive policies.
2023 seems entirely plausible if things are going well and would be consistent with 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005.
May or June 2023 would be earlier than those precedents. October 2023 would be more reasonable - and also the earliest realistic date to rely on boundary changes
Yes I think late Summer or Autumn 2023 would make sense too, especially as it would be on new boundaries. Only loses just over a year from the last possible date and loses less than a year from the expected 2024 date.
For the betting markets late Summer or Autumn 2023 would count as an early election, but it would be historically quite normal being roughly four years in.
We've had two or three heavy downpours here in lowland east London this afternoon.
Before this place turns into netweather.tv, those hoping for a heatwave - I can't see it. Settled and warmer by the middle of next week perhaps but for me the High pressure is building in the wrong place for heat fans (more to the north and west than to the east). No sign of a "plume" of hot air from the Sahara either but we've enjoyed or endured a prolonged period of below average temperatures in London.
Should be 18c in mid May but 15c today.
Last year was exceptional. This year, well, won't be.
Just how it is.
This year is exceptional - just in the wrong direction.
Last year was exceptional for the good, this year is exceptional for the bad. Average the two and the average across the two-year period would compare to normal averages, but contrast the two and this year's weather is horrendous.
Some people, though, are never satisfied. This April was sunnier than average, but because it was also colder than average, it gets slammed as being "bad" weather. I found that it's been pretty good for getting out and about. I've done some good longish cycle rides.
If it had been raining a lot, then that would have been much more miserable.
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
I would not be at all surprised. The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account). I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
Hmmm....
Never been able to make head nor tail of that graph.
Look at the peak and thickness of the different colour bands. I think @Andy_Cooke is right, there does look to have been a smallish peak in cases over the last two weeks, but no sign yet that it's resulting in higher hospitalisations other than those few vaccine refusers in Bolton.
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
I would not be at all surprised. The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account). I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
Hmmm....
Never been able to make head nor tail of that graph.
It shows the cases by the actual date that the tests are taken. This has a weekly cycle. Hence the ups and down.
So on the 10th a bunch of tests were processed into the system, causing the spike in cases that has got people upset.
2023 seems entirely plausible if things are going well and would be consistent with 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005.
May or June 2023 would be earlier than those precedents. October 2023 would be more reasonable - and also the earliest realistic date to rely on boundary changes
Yes I think late Summer or Autumn 2023 would make sense too, especially as it would be on new boundaries. Only loses just over a year from the last possible date and loses less than a year from the expected 2024 date.
For the betting markets late Summer or Autumn 2023 would count as an early election, but it would be historically quite normal being roughly four years in.
The new boundaries will not be implemented before July 2023 - probably too late for a Summer election.
We've had two or three heavy downpours here in lowland east London this afternoon.
Before this place turns into netweather.tv, those hoping for a heatwave - I can't see it. Settled and warmer by the middle of next week perhaps but for me the High pressure is building in the wrong place for heat fans (more to the north and west than to the east). No sign of a "plume" of hot air from the Sahara either but we've enjoyed or endured a prolonged period of below average temperatures in London.
Should be 18c in mid May but 15c today.
Last year was exceptional. This year, well, won't be.
Just how it is.
This year is exceptional - just in the wrong direction.
Last year was exceptional for the good, this year is exceptional for the bad. Average the two and the average across the two-year period would compare to normal averages, but contrast the two and this year's weather is horrendous.
Some people, though, are never satisfied. This April was sunnier than average, but because it was also colder than average, it gets slammed as being "bad" weather. I found that it's been pretty good for getting out and about. I've done some good longish cycle rides.
If it had been raining a lot, then that would have been much more miserable.
April was very dry. With last weeks rain, everything in my garden is taking off, despite being a bit chilly still.
2023 seems entirely plausible if things are going well and would be consistent with 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005.
May or June 2023 would be earlier than those precedents. October 2023 would be more reasonable - and also the earliest realistic date to rely on boundary changes
Yes I think late Summer or Autumn 2023 would make sense too, especially as it would be on new boundaries. Only loses just over a year from the last possible date and loses less than a year from the expected 2024 date.
For the betting markets late Summer or Autumn 2023 would count as an early election, but it would be historically quite normal being roughly four years in.
The new boundaries will not be implemented before July 2023 - probably too late for a Summer election.
Summer is June to August, or 21 June to 21 September depending upon how you measure it.
So if the new boundaries come in July then a late Summer election would be entirely possible.
I'm glad that Sir Kir Royale is taking a stand against "biphobia"
I hear biphobia everywhere and it needs to be dealt with.
"You know who I hate? People who aren't certain. I hate them with their Oh I like pizza but I ALSO like lasagne. Fuck them and their improved choice of partners"
It reminded me of that embarrassment of an interview with Jess Philips this morning on R4.
"We want a new criminal offence of aggravated misogyny." "So you want more people to go to jail? "Err". " So do you think Jail works now?" "Not really."
I mean the Today program tried really quite hard to make this sound like a big deal. They said it was about 3 times. But what it boiled down to was that she wanted the political gesture of being able to show that she cared but not an actual consequence.
If Jess Philips is the best Labour has got they better keep SKS.
2023 seems entirely plausible if things are going well and would be consistent with 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005.
May or June 2023 would be earlier than those precedents. October 2023 would be more reasonable - and also the earliest realistic date to rely on boundary changes
Yes I think late Summer or Autumn 2023 would make sense too, especially as it would be on new boundaries. Only loses just over a year from the last possible date and loses less than a year from the expected 2024 date.
For the betting markets late Summer or Autumn 2023 would count as an early election, but it would be historically quite normal being roughly four years in.
The new boundaries will not be implemented before July 2023 - probably too late for a Summer election.
I agree with the poster a day or so back. Repealing the FTPA also permits pushing the election back, from May 2024 into the Autumn.
I think that very possible. Voters don't like early elections if they feel them unnecessary. Unlike us who rather like elections, to most folk they are a bore.
Comments
I can confirm you *can* get a *pint* in a *pub* in *Scotland (well Aberdeen at least)t*
You hate Boris. I get that. You can vote his party into oblivion at the next election, you can campaign on the street to make others vote the same, you can make your voice heard in British media to tell everyone of his sins, and thereby speed his fall. It's called democracy
What if you hate Ursula von der Fucknows, what if you are outraged by the way her cabal of obscurities mishandled EU vaccine procurement? What can you do about her, and that?
Nothing. Nada. Nil. Tough shit. She's nominated for the job and she's not elected. She is immune
That is the beginning and the end of the Brexit benefits. Democracy and sovereignty. It's all we wanted
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
Lord of the Rings now to include more potatoes.
Anyway, there are forums for weather chat!
You should not travel to amber list countries or territories.
Is unclear?
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/red-amber-and-green-list-rules-for-entering-england#amber-list
It’s the single biggest screw-up of the last 15 months (and I say that as someone living abroad who wants to see my parents at some point this year!).
We have a day against dragons after all. The 23rd April.
He can become a toon legend at St James Park
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8917346e-b678-11eb-98e3-d1306649ebf7?shareToken=1b54ef890db008aa493cefcab0fc25d7 https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1394379351802662919/photo/1
Any Labour leader against any Tory leader has this problem in England until they have solved it.
If you make a long line of Tory seats from, say, richest to poorest, house prices, attitudes to social issues, most to least educated and other things you get a spectrum or continuum. Christchurch may haver little in common with Hartlepool but they hold hands indirectly along a long spectrum. The average seat along this line is a Tory one
If you do the same with Labour seats you get clumps instead - three large and overlapping ones: Posh/educated; ethnic minority; very urban. Not a continuum or spectrum. Remarkably little therefore in common.
If you were to average them out you would get not a Labour seat but a Tory one. There is an average Tory seat. There isn't an average Labour seat.
The fourth Labour clump was the red wall. It is in the process of vanishing.
Addressing them all is not easy. Can it be done? And where do the 125 extra seats come from?
Government didn't expect Brexit to be so disruptive to Northern Ireland, David Frost admits
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/david-frost-northern-ireland
The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account).
I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
Is that difficult?
*Yes I am aware of the irony of this itself being a negative observation.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-when-the-governments-opaque-green-amber-and-red-list-decisions-dont-match-the-data-12309430
Disingenuous and slippery, Matt Hancock deflects blame for spread of India variant | John Crace https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/17/covid-coronavirus-disingenuous-slippery-matt-hancock-deflects-blame-spread-india-variant
Last year was exceptional for the good, this year is exceptional for the bad. Average the two and the average across the two-year period would compare to normal averages, but contrast the two and this year's weather is horrendous.
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
In any case, it's just a tweet man!
The Greens and Conservatives have joined ranks to overthrow the Labour-led administration of Lancaster City Council. Disgraceful.
https://twitter.com/richardmarcj/status/1394367401509195784?s=20
Yup!!! A friend asked me yesterday how I manage to cope - I said "an enthusiasm for beer"
Progressive Alliance[1] vote-share at GE 2019: [1] Parties deemed to be of the "Left" OR "Centre-left" by Wikipedia.
Right-wing Alliance[2] vote-share at GE 2019: [2] Parties deemed to be of the "Right" OR "Centre-right" by Wikipedia.
Remember, this just for a bit of fun!
England 1,035,211
Scotland 11,361
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland
IIRC Sturgeon said last week that Glasgow had a positivity rate of over 30%.
live HT Barnsley0 - 1Swansea City
Champers for Brisky tonight??
The issue is that by constantly giving the impression that Starmer and Labour are fixated on minority issues, the average red waller comes to the conclusion that there is nothing on offer for them. Meanwhile Bozo talks about levelling up, recruiting coppers and nurses and any manner of other attractive policies.
I'm currently reading about whistleblowing acts in various countries.
So if say a Brit working for an American company with a subsidiary company in Germany, I'm working out what legal protections they enjoy and if they are simultaneously adhering to the whistleblowing act in one jurisdiction whilst breaking the law in another jurisdiction.
This is a theoretical discussion.
They had clearly looked into the situation before deciding on a break
Lets hope the country in question does not end up on the red list
Though seeing we still allow flights in from India even today no doubt that isn't a problem even if it does.......
I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.
I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.
I hear biphobia everywhere and it needs to be dealt with.
"You know who I hate? People who aren't certain. I hate them with their Oh I like pizza but I ALSO like lasagne. Fuck them and their improved choice of partners"
https://m.thepaperboy.com/frontpages_archive/Daily_Mirror_12_12_2019_400.jpg
"For them" rather than "for you".
For the betting markets late Summer or Autumn 2023 would count as an early election, but it would be historically quite normal being roughly four years in.
If it had been raining a lot, then that would have been much more miserable.
I suspect many others anticipate that Greece, Italy, Spain etc are all green listed by the time the travel actually happens.
Wasn't it supposed to be so much better than cheeks of the same arse?
Progressive Alliance 53%
Tory Boys 42%
Other 5%
So on the 10th a bunch of tests were processed into the system, causing the spike in cases that has got people upset.
So if the new boundaries come in July then a late Summer election would be entirely possible.
"We want a new criminal offence of aggravated misogyny."
"So you want more people to go to jail?
"Err". "
So do you think Jail works now?"
"Not really."
I mean the Today program tried really quite hard to make this sound like a big deal. They said it was about 3 times. But what it boiled down to was that she wanted the political gesture of being able to show that she cared but not an actual consequence.
If Jess Philips is the best Labour has got they better keep SKS.
I think that very possible. Voters don't like early elections if they feel them unnecessary. Unlike us who rather like elections, to most folk they are a bore.