Tory MPs and Cabinet ministers warn Johnson not to put back 21st June unlocking in order to protect anti-vaxxers.
Now we need Starmer to say the same and put Labour behind that otherwise the government will just use opposition votes to keep us locked down to protect the c***s who chose not to have the vaccine.
Maybe I am wrong, but I think people just wont do it. If there is another lockdown because of anti-vaxxers there will be massive rule breaking. Absolutely massive. No one will give two fucks about the rules.
But the pubs, restaurants, bars and other hospitality will bleed to death with a thousand cuts under that scenario. The only way back for these businesses is to axe social distancing on June 21st. We have got no way around that. I want these businesses to thrive again. I have no issues breaking the rules today if necessary, I went to a house party with way more than the number of people allowed under the April rules.
We have to make the old normal come back for the sake of pubs, bars, restaurants, clubs and other hospitality businesses. Rule breaking doesn't help them.
There is no way that we can make a dent in the hospital waiting list, or even attenuate it's growth if we have to maintain social distancing etc. It is a major drag on productivity. It is like wading in treacle trying to get anything done. Exhausting and unproductive.
Tory MPs and Cabinet ministers warn Johnson not to put back 21st June unlocking in order to protect anti-vaxxers.
Now we need Starmer to say the same and put Labour behind that otherwise the government will just use opposition votes to keep us locked down to protect the c***s who chose not to have the vaccine.
Maybe I am wrong, but I think people just wont do it. If there is another lockdown because of anti-vaxxers there will be massive rule breaking. Absolutely massive. No one will give two fucks about the rules.
But the pubs, restaurants, bars and other hospitality will bleed to death with a thousand cuts under that scenario. The only way back for these businesses is to axe social distancing on June 21st. We have got no way around that. I want these businesses to thrive again. I have no issues breaking the rules today if necessary, I went to a house party with way more than the number of people allowed under the April rules.
We have to make the old normal come back for the sake of pubs, bars, restaurants, clubs and other hospitality businesses. Rule breaking doesn't help them.
There is no way that we can make a dent in the hospital waiting list, or even attenuate it's growth if we have to maintain social distancing etc. It is a major drag on productivity. It is like wading in treacle trying to get anything done. Exhausting and unproductive.
Yes, but the government will pitch it as a low cost measure in the short term and eventually normalise it.
Important to note this is lower than their GE19 score & Labour’s is higher
Redfield & Wilton
Westminster Voting Intention (17 May):
Conservative 42% (-3) Labour 33% (-1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+2) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Green 6% (+1) Other 5% (+1)
Changes +/- 10 May
Lowest Lab % since May 2020
It actually matches Labour's 2019 GB vote share - 33%.
That's a solid platform at a time when things are rock bottom. Make no mistake - Labour are slap bang in the running for the next GE. People giving it to the Tories are getting carried away. All the old rules are useless, including the one that says Oppositions should have a poll lead mid parliament if they are to have a chance.
Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.
Was raised in West Virginia and spent lots of quality time there & in the Midwest. The cicadas are a strange if not wonderful phenomena, and obviously can be a problem for farmers and gardners.
But NOT quite like those movies where the army ants march across the jungle gobbling up whole plantations, villages, towns & cities in their wake. Mostly just a lot of weird-looking bugs mostly dead. IIRC a real feast for birds & other critters who like nice grass-feed insects!
UK officials said Australian and New Zealand negotiators were holding firm on demands for full tariff liberalisation, which Truss was under pressure to grant in order to meet the G7 deadline, perhaps phased in over a 10-year period.
But such a deal risks inflaming arguments over Scottish and Welsh independence because the likely impact of zero-tariff imports of Australian lamb and beef will land hardest in rural areas such as Scottish and Welsh hill farms.
Just to give a quick summary of the overall likely boundary changes based on 2019 votes:
Devon +1 seat +1 Con Somerset +1 seat +1 Con Bristol/Gloucs/S Gloucs +1 seat +1 Lab Isle of Wight +1 seat +1 Con Berks/Hants+1 seat +1 Con Oxon +1 seat +1 Con Bucks +1 seat +1 Con (although Lab's position in Wycombe/MK may be approved) W and E Sussex +1 seat +1 Con Kent +1 seat +1 Con Surrey +1 seat +1 Con Beds+Herts +1 seat +1 Con Cambs +1 seat +1 Con Suffolk + Norfolk +1 seat +1 Con Lambeth +Southwark +1 seat +1 Lab (no longer need to be paired but Southwark will need a ward from Lewisham) Tower Hamlets+Newham +1 seat +1 Lab Central London - Lab should be able to flip one here +1 Lab, -1 Con Lincs and Rutland +1 seat +1 Con Walsall and Wolves -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Dudley and Staffs -1 seat - 1 Con Wirral -1 seat - 1 Lab Cumbria+Lancs -1 seat - 1 LD (Cumbria is only entitled to 5.3 seats meaning a cross-border seat with lancs and the end of Farron's seat) Durham -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Northumberland and Newcastle - 1 seat -1 Con (Blyth Valley is most likely to disappear) Scotland -2 seats -2 LD (Glasgow loses 1 seat and Highland/Abs loses the other but the SNP should eb able toflip both Caithness and NE Fife) Wales -8 seats -3 Con -3 Lab -2 Plaid (Lab loses 4 in the South but they should be able to flip Bridgend. I would expect Plaid to lose 2 in Dyfed Powys and the NW due to their vote being spread thinly and Con to lose 2 in the NE)
Total - Con+5, Lab 0, LD -3, Plaid -2
I have mainly featured areas that will change but within counties that keep the same number of seats there will be changes as well e.g. the Northampton seats have to expand into the current South Northants seat
London will see huge change due to new groupings of the boroughs
Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.
Was raised in West Virginia and spent lots of quality time there & in the Midwest. The cicadas are a strange if not wonderful phenomena, and obviously can be a problem for farmers and gardners.
But NOT quite like those movies where the army ants march across the jungle gobbling up whole plantations, villages, towns & cities in their wake. Mostly just a lot of weird-looking bugs mostly dead. IIRC a real feast for birds & other critters who like nice grass-feed insects!
Not really started in the DC area yet. They tend to go for oak trees, although I am told saplings of any type can be susceptible to their unwanted attentions.
The usual sign that a tree has these bugs is the foliage from one or more major limbs drying up brown against the deep green.
I'm glad that Sir Kir Royale is taking a stand against "biphobia"
I hear biphobia everywhere and it needs to be dealt with.
"You know who I hate? People who aren't certain. I hate them with their Oh I like pizza but I ALSO like lasagne. Fuck them and their improved choice of partners"
UK officials said Australian and New Zealand negotiators were holding firm on demands for full tariff liberalisation, which Truss was under pressure to grant in order to meet the G7 deadline, perhaps phased in over a 10-year period.
But such a deal risks inflaming arguments over Scottish and Welsh independence because the likely impact of zero-tariff imports of Australian lamb and beef will land hardest in rural areas such as Scottish and Welsh hill farms.
Hmm, that's possible but I'd guess that EU imports will be hit hardest. People who buy British meat will probably continue to do so, people who don't will now have alternatives at a competitive price to imported meat from Ireland, France and Denmark.
What we haven’t mentioned is the context that the red wall was called a red wall because it used to be overwhelmingly and unquestioningly Labour. The fact it is much the same as/slightly more Tory than, the rest of the country is a huge problem for Labour - but they seem to be taking it as a signal that things aren’t as bad as people say
It’s like your partner saying they like you just as much as all the other people that fancy them, when you used to be their one and only - it’s not good news
FWIW I'm coming round to the idea of a one world government with a single legal system.
Common Law… you know it makes sense!
Especially IF you belong to your local Bar Association (or whatever they have in UK). Who like to advise clients to seek writs of replevin & the like, just for the fun of watching the haunted look that comes over them when they realize they do not have a clue what you mean, but that it's gonna cost them a pretty penny one way or another to find out!
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
Something like +7 compared to +24 I think
So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.
I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.
I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.
The big divider is age not class or colour or colour of wall. Hardly surprising when we have the richest cohort of pensioners ever, and the first generation of workers who will do less well than their parents since the big wars.
Woke is a distraction and reflection of age.
My parents are both in their mid 70s, both still work part time. When they were full time they never earnt big money - local govt Admin/Woolworths & a labourer/sports coach. 15% interest rates when they were skint & paying a mortgage. 0.1% now they’ve paid the house off & have decent savings. So they’re now quite rich, through having modest tastes and living within their means. But they’re still working class, ex council house kids who never earnt more than 40k pa - lefties are trying to say they’re wrongly defined as working class in polls though.
Yes but their economic interests are essentially aligned with a millionaire banker now - inflate assets and squeeze the workers through rents and taxes.
Those with assets are voting Tory, those without are split roughly 50-50.
Well they aren’t voting Tory, but I don’t see why being sensible and saving their whole life transformed them from being working class to something else. Class isn’t about bank balance - if Prince Harry goes skint and works in McDonalds, he won’t be working class.
And what about interest rates pensioners paid/what they receive now? How’s that them being so lucky?
Yes, very frequently people want to self declare as working class, as that is how they see themselves. It is quite common with University academics to do so for example, and in many liberal professions.
Solicitors from Sheffield from example?
I'm as working class as foie gras I am modest.
My life outcomes were determined by my father's occupation and his choice to send me to a private school.
It says a lot about the English/British class system that my grandfather, a brown skinned immigrant to this country, had a son and grandson who are part of the upper middle classes, whilst my grandfather became a member of the middle class the moment he arrived in the country.
It still boils my piss that Corbyn said only Labour can unlock the talents of BAME people.
It frustrates me no end that plenty of people, mostly on the left, like to lump me into the BAME group when I have absolutely nothing in common with a black kid on a council estate.
These people are as dangerous as those people who say there's no racism in this country/immigrants don't assimilate.
Important to note this is lower than their GE19 score & Labour’s is higher
Redfield & Wilton
Westminster Voting Intention (17 May):
Conservative 42% (-3) Labour 33% (-1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+2) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Green 6% (+1) Other 5% (+1)
Changes +/- 10 May
Lowest Lab % since May 2020
It actually matches Labour's 2019 GB vote share - 33%.
That's a solid platform at a time when things are rock bottom. Make no mistake - Labour are slap bang in the running for the next GE. People giving it to the Tories are getting carried away. All the old rules are useless, including the one that says Oppositions should have a poll lead mid parliament if they are to have a chance.
I’ll bet you an even grand Tories win a majority at the next GE
2023 seems entirely plausible if things are going well and would be consistent with 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005.
May or June 2023 would be earlier than those precedents. October 2023 would be more reasonable - and also the earliest realistic date to rely on boundary changes
Yes I think late Summer or Autumn 2023 would make sense too, especially as it would be on new boundaries. Only loses just over a year from the last possible date and loses less than a year from the expected 2024 date.
For the betting markets late Summer or Autumn 2023 would count as an early election, but it would be historically quite normal being roughly four years in.
The new boundaries will not be implemented before July 2023 - probably too late for a Summer election.
Summer is June to August, or 21 June to 21 September depending upon how you measure it.
So if the new boundaries come in July then a late Summer election would be entirely possible.
There are more summers than that. The Irish definition starts summer at the beginning of May (or at half-past two on the second Tuesday in June, lasting for three hours, if you're being unkind). Or you can use a long summer definition, May-September.
Professor Lamb did define a "High Summer" season, from 18th June - 9th September, based on weather circulation patterns in the first half of the 20th century, but please don't use a definition of summer that starts on the summer solstice. It's nonsensical. If you want to have a summer season defined by measurements of the length of the day, then the summer solstice needs to be in the middle of the summer season, and so summer would start on the cross-quarter day of 6th May.
The "summer starts on Midsummer's Day" brigade should be taken out and shot.
Summer starts when you start drinking in the airport at 9am before boarding your Ryanair flight to Benidorm. Everyone knows that.
What we haven’t mentioned is the context that the red wall was called a red wall because it used to be overwhelmingly and unquestioningly Labour. The fact it is much the same as/slightly more Tory than, the rest of the country is a huge problem for Labour - but they seem to be taking it as a signal that things aren’t as bad as people say
It’s like your partner saying they like you just as much as all the other people that fancy them, when you used to be their one and only - it’s not good news
Yes, that is true, but we know these seats are like that already, after all the poll was in 51 seats that were Tory gains.
What is interesting is that the way to win them back is not fundamentally different to how Labour win back other voters, and also that Labour is not dead there.
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
Something like +7 compared to +24 I think
So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.
I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.
I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.
The big divider is age not class or colour or colour of wall. Hardly surprising when we have the richest cohort of pensioners ever, and the first generation of workers who will do less well than their parents since the big wars.
Woke is a distraction and reflection of age.
My parents are both in their mid 70s, both still work part time. When they were full time they never earnt big money - local govt Admin/Woolworths & a labourer/sports coach. 15% interest rates when they were skint & paying a mortgage. 0.1% now they’ve paid the house off & have decent savings. So they’re now quite rich, through having modest tastes and living within their means. But they’re still working class, ex council house kids who never earnt more than 40k pa - lefties are trying to say they’re wrongly defined as working class in polls though.
Yes but their economic interests are essentially aligned with a millionaire banker now - inflate assets and squeeze the workers through rents and taxes.
Those with assets are voting Tory, those without are split roughly 50-50.
Well they aren’t voting Tory, but I don’t see why being sensible and saving their whole life transformed them from being working class to something else. Class isn’t about bank balance - if Prince Harry goes skint and works in McDonalds, he won’t be working class.
And what about interest rates pensioners paid/what they receive now? How’s that them being so lucky?
Yes, very frequently people want to self declare as working class, as that is how they see themselves. It is quite common with University academics to do so for example, and in many liberal professions.
The one thing I really hate about England is the idea that Class isn't linked to how much money you have *now*, but how much money you had growing up. Frank Skinner for example is considered to be Working Class, despite being a sodding Multi-Millionare
Quite so, though it can pass down a further tier fairly easily. For example, an academic friend sees herself as working class, despite her parents being teachers, because her grandparents were miners.
That is stupid. Like people who claim to be Scottish despite living their whole life in Leicestershire because one parent was born in Scotland. It's just 'look at me, I'm special.
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
I would not be at all surprised. The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account). I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
Hmmm....
Never been able to make head nor tail of that graph.
Look at the peak and thickness of the different colour bands. I think @Andy_Cooke is right, there does look to have been a smallish peak in cases over the last two weeks, but no sign yet that it's resulting in higher hospitalisations other than those few vaccine refusers in Bolton.
What I think is interesting, is that we get that sharp peak on the 10th - which only reverses the fall of a couple of weeks, look at the 26th.
But just after that peak on 10th, the "sub-peak" (11th-12th) is lower. Yes, we are in a weekend and data to fill in, but it hints at a resumption of the fall. We shall see in a day or so.
We'll have to wait and see if the Indian variant seed cases in the rest of the country cause any additional transmission. I think some parts of London will be particularly susceptible, as Stodge has pointed out take up of vaccines in Newham is pretty poor. We could see some small to medium rise in cases over the next two weeks before it starts falling again as acquired immunity pushes those areas towards herd immunity.
I agree but it strikes me that this variant was seeded here over a month ago now. At what point do we file this one with the Brazilian and Spanish variants as NBD?
Yes, I think that's where it's heading. A marginal increase in transmission that looks worse in India and Indian/Pakistani areas of the UK because there's no such thing as personal space or social distancing in those places.
The odd one is why Bolton seems so badly effected but we're not really seeing it in Wembley, Ealing or Harrow. There's definitely something that needs investigating within that difference.
Luck.
It's why India and Eastern Europe were hardly affected first time around.
Important to note this is lower than their GE19 score & Labour’s is higher
Redfield & Wilton
Westminster Voting Intention (17 May):
Conservative 42% (-3) Labour 33% (-1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+2) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Green 6% (+1) Other 5% (+1)
Changes +/- 10 May
Lowest Lab % since May 2020
It actually matches Labour's 2019 GB vote share - 33%.
That's a solid platform at a time when things are rock bottom. Make no mistake - Labour are slap bang in the running for the next GE. People giving it to the Tories are getting carried away. All the old rules are useless, including the one that says Oppositions should have a poll lead mid parliament if they are to have a chance.
We are in strange times. The twelve point differential between Labour and Conservative consists of a very fluid 6%.
I know my 1980s economic theory that an increase in M3 is inflationary has been ridiculed as "old hat", however I still can't see past a two year boom followed by significant inflation, interest rate rises and everything else that follows, namely, bust.
On topic, this is why Johnson would be wise to look at a snap election in late 2022 or Spring 2023, giving the Conservatives a solid five year majority, soon thereafter handing over to Sunak before the excrement hits the AC.
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
Something like +7 compared to +24 I think
So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.
I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.
I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.
The big divider is age not class or colour or colour of wall. Hardly surprising when we have the richest cohort of pensioners ever, and the first generation of workers who will do less well than their parents since the big wars.
Woke is a distraction and reflection of age.
My parents are both in their mid 70s, both still work part time. When they were full time they never earnt big money - local govt Admin/Woolworths & a labourer/sports coach. 15% interest rates when they were skint & paying a mortgage. 0.1% now they’ve paid the house off & have decent savings. So they’re now quite rich, through having modest tastes and living within their means. But they’re still working class, ex council house kids who never earnt more than 40k pa - lefties are trying to say they’re wrongly defined as working class in polls though.
Yes but their economic interests are essentially aligned with a millionaire banker now - inflate assets and squeeze the workers through rents and taxes.
Those with assets are voting Tory, those without are split roughly 50-50.
Well they aren’t voting Tory, but I don’t see why being sensible and saving their whole life transformed them from being working class to something else. Class isn’t about bank balance - if Prince Harry goes skint and works in McDonalds, he won’t be working class.
And what about interest rates pensioners paid/what they receive now? How’s that them being so lucky?
I'm not really that interested in what class people are as it means different things to different people. My point is the political landscape can at least as easily be defined by age and wealth (assets not income), as class, Brexit or historic constituency voting.
That this cohort of pensioners is (on average) far richer than those who go before them is surely not in doubt? Again whether that is down to "luck" or "hard work" does not matter much, it is in their economic interests to protect their wealth and that impacts the political sphere.
Yeah I agree, but most pensioners are protecting their wealth for their kids and grandkids, not themselves. You could just as easily point out that when they were 20 somethings, they had to stay living with their parents until they got married, save up and didn’t have wealthy grandparents to leave them big inheritances
While that's true, the average age of buying the first home was in the mid-20s not that long ago.
Bloody Hell. Just seen Taiwan has recorded 91% of its total cases in the past 4 days!
I think I read there has been an outbreak amongst airport staff and those running quarantine centres?
People paying to watch airplanes put in the quarantine hotel with aircrew by mistake... Also "Grandpa Shops" (brothels for old folk), and the many, many temples of Wanhua (my old stomping ground), which is the oldest, and most higgledy piggledy part of town. The original port, and most deprived part of Taipei. Has all the risk factors youd imagine. Taipei is rammed. High density, high-rise housing.
What we haven’t mentioned is the context that the red wall was called a red wall because it used to be overwhelmingly and unquestioningly Labour. The fact it is much the same as/slightly more Tory than, the rest of the country is a huge problem for Labour - but they seem to be taking it as a signal that things aren’t as bad as people say
It’s like your partner saying they like you just as much as all the other people that fancy them, when you used to be their one and only - it’s not good news
Yes, that is true, but we know these seats are like that already, after all the poll was in 51 seats that were Tory gains.
What is interesting is that the way to win them back is not fundamentally different to how Labour win back other voters, and also that Labour is not dead there.
Yes they like left wing policies, but not left wing politicians. It’s the default English position
Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.
UK officials said Australian and New Zealand negotiators were holding firm on demands for full tariff liberalisation, which Truss was under pressure to grant in order to meet the G7 deadline, perhaps phased in over a 10-year period.
But such a deal risks inflaming arguments over Scottish and Welsh independence because the likely impact of zero-tariff imports of Australian lamb and beef will land hardest in rural areas such as Scottish and Welsh hill farms.
Hmm, that's possible but I'd guess that EU imports will be hit hardest. People who buy British meat will probably continue to do so, people who don't will now have alternatives at a competitive price to imported meat from Ireland, France and Denmark.
Seattle Times ($) - Report: Microsoft investigated Gates before he left board
Board members at Microsoft Corp. made a decision in 2020 that it wasn’t appropriate for its co-founder Bill Gates to continue sitting on its board as they investigated the billionaire’s prior romantic relationship with a female Microsoft employee that was deemed inappropriate, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.
Citing unnamed sources, The Journal reported online Sunday that board members looking into the matter hired a law firm in late 2019 to conduct an investigation after a Microsoft engineer alleged in a letter that she had a sexual relationship with Gates over several years.
The Journal reported that Gates resigned before the board’s investigation was finished, citing another person familiar with the matter.
An unnamed spokeswoman for Gates acknowledged to The Journal that there was an affair almost 20 years ago, and that it ended “amicably.” The spokesperson told The Journal that “his decision to transition off the board was in no way related to this matter.””
When he left Microsoft’s board last year, Gates said he was stepping down to focus on philanthropy.
In an email sent to The Associated Press late Sunday, Microsoft said that it “received a concern in the latter half of 2019 that Bill Gates sought to initiate an intimate relationship with a company employee in the year 2000. A committee of the Board reviewed the concern, aided by an outside law firm, to conduct a thorough investigation. Throughout the investigation, Microsoft provided extensive support to the employee who raised the concern.”
Comment - Have always had a lot of respect for Bill the Billionaire's father, who was a highly successful Seattle attorney & moderate, country-club Republican (a "Dan Evans Republican" as we say in WA) who led unsuccessful effort to pass a statewide initiative establishing an upper-income state income tax.
Never had much respect for Bill Gates as a person. Always thought he was more lucky than visionary and more into ego gratification than philanthropy. All of which I thought & said (if not here) long BEFORE Melinda lowered the boom on him.
It is interesting that the Gates Foundation is responsible for crashing the cichlid populations in the African Great Lakes through their massive distribution of mosquito nets which locals have turned into fishing nets.
Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.
Was raised in West Virginia and spent lots of quality time there & in the Midwest. The cicadas are a strange if not wonderful phenomena, and obviously can be a problem for farmers and gardners.
But NOT quite like those movies where the army ants march across the jungle gobbling up whole plantations, villages, towns & cities in their wake. Mostly just a lot of weird-looking bugs mostly dead. IIRC a real feast for birds & other critters who like nice grass-feed insects!
Not really started in the DC area yet. They tend to go for oak trees, although I am told saplings of any type can be susceptible to their unwanted attentions.
The usual sign that a tree has these bugs is the foliage from one or more major limbs drying up brown against the deep green.
According to map with link below, Brood X has major concentrations centered on Indiana and east-central Ohio, and also in Maryland, Delaware and large swath of central PA.
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
Something like +7 compared to +24 I think
So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.
I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.
I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.
The big divider is age not class or colour or colour of wall. Hardly surprising when we have the richest cohort of pensioners ever, and the first generation of workers who will do less well than their parents since the big wars.
Woke is a distraction and reflection of age.
My parents are both in their mid 70s, both still work part time. When they were full time they never earnt big money - local govt Admin/Woolworths & a labourer/sports coach. 15% interest rates when they were skint & paying a mortgage. 0.1% now they’ve paid the house off & have decent savings. So they’re now quite rich, through having modest tastes and living within their means. But they’re still working class, ex council house kids who never earnt more than 40k pa - lefties are trying to say they’re wrongly defined as working class in polls though.
Yes but their economic interests are essentially aligned with a millionaire banker now - inflate assets and squeeze the workers through rents and taxes.
Those with assets are voting Tory, those without are split roughly 50-50.
Well they aren’t voting Tory, but I don’t see why being sensible and saving their whole life transformed them from being working class to something else. Class isn’t about bank balance - if Prince Harry goes skint and works in McDonalds, he won’t be working class.
And what about interest rates pensioners paid/what they receive now? How’s that them being so lucky?
Yes, very frequently people want to self declare as working class, as that is how they see themselves. It is quite common with University academics to do so for example, and in many liberal professions.
Solicitors from Sheffield from example?
I'm as working class as foie gras I am modest.
My life outcomes were determined by my father's occupation and his choice to send me to a private school.
It says a lot about the English/British class system that my grandfather, a brown skinned immigrant to this country, had a son and grandson who are part of the upper middle classes, whilst my grandfather became a member of the middle class the moment he arrived in the country.
It still boils my piss that Corbyn said only Labour can unlock the talents of BAME people.
It frustrates me no end that plenty of people, mostly on the left, like to lump me into the BAME group when I have absolutely nothing in common with a black kid on a council estate.
These people are as dangerous as those people who say there's no racism in this country/immigrants don't assimilate.
I think a major problem with the whole BAME idea is the spectacular success of both Indian and Chinese immigrants in this country. Both earn above the national average, have higher levels of professional qualifications etc. Both achieve this because they have strong and very positive cultural values that admire hard work, education and success. Both seem to me to fit a lot more comfortably with the Tories than the victimhood mindset of so many in the Labour party as the current HS and Chancellor indicate.
Groups that do not have those cultural advantages, including many poor white kids, really struggle and our education system does a pretty crap job of helping them out or allowing them to reach their potential. This is bad for all of us but the reluctance to accept the root of the problem really doesn't help.
UK officials said Australian and New Zealand negotiators were holding firm on demands for full tariff liberalisation, which Truss was under pressure to grant in order to meet the G7 deadline, perhaps phased in over a 10-year period.
But such a deal risks inflaming arguments over Scottish and Welsh independence because the likely impact of zero-tariff imports of Australian lamb and beef will land hardest in rural areas such as Scottish and Welsh hill farms.
Hmm, that's possible but I'd guess that EU imports will be hit hardest. People who buy British meat will probably continue to do so, people who don't will now have alternatives at a competitive price to imported meat from Ireland, France and Denmark.
We export lamb to the EU, not import it.
There might be a case for beef.
Yes but that's not going to change, Australian re-exports won't qualify under rules of origin and we may be a net exporter of lamb but we still import prime cuts from the EU and export the less prime parts of the animal. I'd expect that Australia/NZ will compete with those EU imports of prime cuts of lamb and beef as well as packaged meat and dairy imports from Denmark.
Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.
Was raised in West Virginia and spent lots of quality time there & in the Midwest. The cicadas are a strange if not wonderful phenomena, and obviously can be a problem for farmers and gardners.
But NOT quite like those movies where the army ants march across the jungle gobbling up whole plantations, villages, towns & cities in their wake. Mostly just a lot of weird-looking bugs mostly dead. IIRC a real feast for birds & other critters who like nice grass-feed insects!
Not really started in the DC area yet. They tend to go for oak trees, although I am told saplings of any type can be susceptible to their unwanted attentions.
The usual sign that a tree has these bugs is the foliage from one or more major limbs drying up brown against the deep green.
According to map with link below, Brood X has major concentrations centered on Indiana and east-central Ohio, and also in Maryland, Delaware and large swath of central PA.
Yep, we're expecting them, they just haven't decided to come out in force yet. As you know, it's impossible to miss them once they do - the noise can be deafening. Not to mention the crunch underfoot.
Seattle Times ($) - Report: Microsoft investigated Gates before he left board
Board members at Microsoft Corp. made a decision in 2020 that it wasn’t appropriate for its co-founder Bill Gates to continue sitting on its board as they investigated the billionaire’s prior romantic relationship with a female Microsoft employee that was deemed inappropriate, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.
Citing unnamed sources, The Journal reported online Sunday that board members looking into the matter hired a law firm in late 2019 to conduct an investigation after a Microsoft engineer alleged in a letter that she had a sexual relationship with Gates over several years.
The Journal reported that Gates resigned before the board’s investigation was finished, citing another person familiar with the matter.
An unnamed spokeswoman for Gates acknowledged to The Journal that there was an affair almost 20 years ago, and that it ended “amicably.” The spokesperson told The Journal that “his decision to transition off the board was in no way related to this matter.””
When he left Microsoft’s board last year, Gates said he was stepping down to focus on philanthropy.
In an email sent to The Associated Press late Sunday, Microsoft said that it “received a concern in the latter half of 2019 that Bill Gates sought to initiate an intimate relationship with a company employee in the year 2000. A committee of the Board reviewed the concern, aided by an outside law firm, to conduct a thorough investigation. Throughout the investigation, Microsoft provided extensive support to the employee who raised the concern.”
Comment - Have always had a lot of respect for Bill the Billionaire's father, who was a highly successful Seattle attorney & moderate, country-club Republican (a "Dan Evans Republican" as we say in WA) who led unsuccessful effort to pass a statewide initiative establishing an upper-income state income tax.
Never had much respect for Bill Gates as a person. Always thought he was more lucky than visionary and more into ego gratification than philanthropy. All of which I thought & said (if not here) long BEFORE Melinda lowered the boom on him.
It is interesting that the Gates Foundation is responsible for crashing the cichlid populations in the African Great Lakes through their massive distribution of mosquito nets which locals have turned into fishing nets.
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has done a lot of good work. Perfect, certainly not!
From what I gather (by reading the paper and talking to folks somewhat in the know here in the Emerald City) both Bill & Melinda have made major personal contributions, but she somewhat more than he. One thing that Bill definitely brought with him, is the "take no prisoners" management style he made famous (or rather infamous) at Microsoft. In terms of dealing with actual & potential competitors - and even more so in treatment of managers & esp. contract workers.
Seattle Times ($) - Report: Microsoft investigated Gates before he left board
Board members at Microsoft Corp. made a decision in 2020 that it wasn’t appropriate for its co-founder Bill Gates to continue sitting on its board as they investigated the billionaire’s prior romantic relationship with a female Microsoft employee that was deemed inappropriate, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.
Citing unnamed sources, The Journal reported online Sunday that board members looking into the matter hired a law firm in late 2019 to conduct an investigation after a Microsoft engineer alleged in a letter that she had a sexual relationship with Gates over several years.
The Journal reported that Gates resigned before the board’s investigation was finished, citing another person familiar with the matter.
An unnamed spokeswoman for Gates acknowledged to The Journal that there was an affair almost 20 years ago, and that it ended “amicably.” The spokesperson told The Journal that “his decision to transition off the board was in no way related to this matter.””
When he left Microsoft’s board last year, Gates said he was stepping down to focus on philanthropy.
In an email sent to The Associated Press late Sunday, Microsoft said that it “received a concern in the latter half of 2019 that Bill Gates sought to initiate an intimate relationship with a company employee in the year 2000. A committee of the Board reviewed the concern, aided by an outside law firm, to conduct a thorough investigation. Throughout the investigation, Microsoft provided extensive support to the employee who raised the concern.”
Comment - Have always had a lot of respect for Bill the Billionaire's father, who was a highly successful Seattle attorney & moderate, country-club Republican (a "Dan Evans Republican" as we say in WA) who led unsuccessful effort to pass a statewide initiative establishing an upper-income state income tax.
Never had much respect for Bill Gates as a person. Always thought he was more lucky than visionary and more into ego gratification than philanthropy. All of which I thought & said (if not here) long BEFORE Melinda lowered the boom on him.
It is interesting that the Gates Foundation is responsible for crashing the cichlid populations in the African Great Lakes through their massive distribution of mosquito nets which locals have turned into fishing nets.
Bill Easterly is very good on the $2 mosquito net aid paradox.
Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.
Was raised in West Virginia and spent lots of quality time there & in the Midwest. The cicadas are a strange if not wonderful phenomena, and obviously can be a problem for farmers and gardners.
But NOT quite like those movies where the army ants march across the jungle gobbling up whole plantations, villages, towns & cities in their wake. Mostly just a lot of weird-looking bugs mostly dead. IIRC a real feast for birds & other critters who like nice grass-feed insects!
Not really started in the DC area yet. They tend to go for oak trees, although I am told saplings of any type can be susceptible to their unwanted attentions.
The usual sign that a tree has these bugs is the foliage from one or more major limbs drying up brown against the deep green.
According to map with link below, Brood X has major concentrations centered on Indiana and east-central Ohio, and also in Maryland, Delaware and large swath of central PA.
Yep, we're expecting them, they just haven't decided to come out in force yet. As you know, it's impossible to miss them once they do - the noise can be deafening. Not to mention the crunch underfoot.
Remember the noise & the crunch very well, though it was a loooooooooong time ago.
As a kid & young adult wasn't scary or creepy, just weird. But pretty soon you got used to it - and then they were gone, until the next hatch years later.
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
Something like +7 compared to +24 I think
So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.
I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.
I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.
The big divider is age not class or colour or colour of wall. Hardly surprising when we have the richest cohort of pensioners ever, and the first generation of workers who will do less well than their parents since the big wars.
Woke is a distraction and reflection of age.
My parents are both in their mid 70s, both still work part time. When they were full time they never earnt big money - local govt Admin/Woolworths & a labourer/sports coach. 15% interest rates when they were skint & paying a mortgage. 0.1% now they’ve paid the house off & have decent savings. So they’re now quite rich, through having modest tastes and living within their means. But they’re still working class, ex council house kids who never earnt more than 40k pa - lefties are trying to say they’re wrongly defined as working class in polls though.
Yes but their economic interests are essentially aligned with a millionaire banker now - inflate assets and squeeze the workers through rents and taxes.
Those with assets are voting Tory, those without are split roughly 50-50.
Well they aren’t voting Tory, but I don’t see why being sensible and saving their whole life transformed them from being working class to something else. Class isn’t about bank balance - if Prince Harry goes skint and works in McDonalds, he won’t be working class.
And what about interest rates pensioners paid/what they receive now? How’s that them being so lucky?
I'm not really that interested in what class people are as it means different things to different people. My point is the political landscape can at least as easily be defined by age and wealth (assets not income), as class, Brexit or historic constituency voting.
That this cohort of pensioners is (on average) far richer than those who go before them is surely not in doubt? Again whether that is down to "luck" or "hard work" does not matter much, it is in their economic interests to protect their wealth and that impacts the political sphere.
Yeah I agree, but most pensioners are protecting their wealth for their kids and grandkids, not themselves. You could just as easily point out that when they were 20 somethings, they had to stay living with their parents until they got married, save up and didn’t have wealthy grandparents to leave them big inheritances
While that's true, the average age of buying the first home was in the mid-20s not that long ago.
It's now 34.
It's hard to peg that as progress.
It’s a trade off isn’t it? When my grandparents died, my parents didn’t inherit anything, because their parents lived in council houses. When property owning parents and grand Parents pass away, their family get a windfall, despite having to have rented for longer
I think a major problem with the whole BAME idea is the spectacular success of both Indian and Chinese immigrants in this country. Both earn above the national average, have higher levels of professional qualifications etc. Both achieve this because they have strong and very positive cultural values that admire hard work, education and success. Both seem to me to fit a lot more comfortably with the Tories than the victimhood mindset of so many in the Labour party as the current HS and Chancellor indicate.
Groups that do not have those cultural advantages, including many poor white kids, really struggle and our education system does a pretty crap job of helping them out or allowing them to reach their potential. This is bad for all of us but the reluctance to accept the root of the problem really doesn't help.
The thing that boggles my mind is class sizes of 30 plus in state schools.
How on earth can teachers work with pupils who need help on an individual basis?
I was taught in class sizes of around a dozen.
Abolish the department for education and use the money to give vouchers for schools to the parents, the lower the parent/carer tax bracket the more vouchers they.
An entirely privatised school system might just allow the kids who really need help to break the cycle.
Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…
I would not be at all surprised. The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account). I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.
Hmmm....
Never been able to make head nor tail of that graph.
Look at the peak and thickness of the different colour bands. I think @Andy_Cooke is right, there does look to have been a smallish peak in cases over the last two weeks, but no sign yet that it's resulting in higher hospitalisations other than those few vaccine refusers in Bolton.
What I think is interesting, is that we get that sharp peak on the 10th - which only reverses the fall of a couple of weeks, look at the 26th.
But just after that peak on 10th, the "sub-peak" (11th-12th) is lower. Yes, we are in a weekend and data to fill in, but it hints at a resumption of the fall. We shall see in a day or so.
We'll have to wait and see if the Indian variant seed cases in the rest of the country cause any additional transmission. I think some parts of London will be particularly susceptible, as Stodge has pointed out take up of vaccines in Newham is pretty poor. We could see some small to medium rise in cases over the next two weeks before it starts falling again as acquired immunity pushes those areas towards herd immunity.
I agree but it strikes me that this variant was seeded here over a month ago now. At what point do we file this one with the Brazilian and Spanish variants as NBD?
Yes, I think that's where it's heading. A marginal increase in transmission that looks worse in India and Indian/Pakistani areas of the UK because there's no such thing as personal space or social distancing in those places.
The odd one is why Bolton seems so badly effected but we're not really seeing it in Wembley, Ealing or Harrow. There's definitely something that needs investigating within that difference.
Luck.
It's why India and Eastern Europe were hardly affected first time around.
Steady. If we start acknowledging luck and random effects in this way winning court cases is going to get a lot more difficult.
Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.
Have they just found out that Trump was defeated?
They have their own cycle NOT directly related to the US presidential election calendar.
Though they ARE total vegans, and extremely wokish!
Of course there should be a zero-tariff agreement.
So you wish to see our hill farmers and the landscape they maintain decimated...
Butting in again as usual, I wouldn't like to see the hill farmers decimated, but the landscape they maintain - particularly in the Lake District - is very poor ecologically speaking.
Getting rid of all the sheep would make a vast improvement on that front.
Would it destroy the "look" of the Lake District? Maybe. But it hasn't been that way forever.
I think a major problem with the whole BAME idea is the spectacular success of both Indian and Chinese immigrants in this country. Both earn above the national average, have higher levels of professional qualifications etc. Both achieve this because they have strong and very positive cultural values that admire hard work, education and success. Both seem to me to fit a lot more comfortably with the Tories than the victimhood mindset of so many in the Labour party as the current HS and Chancellor indicate.
Groups that do not have those cultural advantages, including many poor white kids, really struggle and our education system does a pretty crap job of helping them out or allowing them to reach their potential. This is bad for all of us but the reluctance to accept the root of the problem really doesn't help.
The thing that boggles my mind is class sizes of 30 plus in state schools.
How on earth can teachers work with pupils who need help on an individual basis?
I was taught in class sizes of around a dozen.
Abolish the department for education and use the money to give vouchers for schools to the parents, the lower the parent/carer tax bracket the more vouchers they.
An entirely privatised school system might just allow the kids who really need help to break the cycle.
After more than 20 years I only have one more month of private school fees to pay 😎😎😎😎
Tory MPs and Cabinet ministers warn Johnson not to put back 21st June unlocking in order to protect anti-vaxxers.
Now we need Starmer to say the same and put Labour behind that otherwise the government will just use opposition votes to keep us locked down to protect the c***s who chose not to have the vaccine.
If you won't open up because of vaccine refuseniks, how do you ever open up?
Given there are fewer anti-vaxxers in this country than in other countries its going to be difficult not to open up here when other countries do so.
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
Something like +7 compared to +24 I think
So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.
I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.
I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.
The big divider is age not class or colour or colour of wall. Hardly surprising when we have the richest cohort of pensioners ever, and the first generation of workers who will do less well than their parents since the big wars.
Woke is a distraction and reflection of age.
My parents are both in their mid 70s, both still work part time. When they were full time they never earnt big money - local govt Admin/Woolworths & a labourer/sports coach. 15% interest rates when they were skint & paying a mortgage. 0.1% now they’ve paid the house off & have decent savings. So they’re now quite rich, through having modest tastes and living within their means. But they’re still working class, ex council house kids who never earnt more than 40k pa - lefties are trying to say they’re wrongly defined as working class in polls though.
Yes but their economic interests are essentially aligned with a millionaire banker now - inflate assets and squeeze the workers through rents and taxes.
Those with assets are voting Tory, those without are split roughly 50-50.
Well they aren’t voting Tory, but I don’t see why being sensible and saving their whole life transformed them from being working class to something else. Class isn’t about bank balance - if Prince Harry goes skint and works in McDonalds, he won’t be working class.
And what about interest rates pensioners paid/what they receive now? How’s that them being so lucky?
I'm not really that interested in what class people are as it means different things to different people. My point is the political landscape can at least as easily be defined by age and wealth (assets not income), as class, Brexit or historic constituency voting.
That this cohort of pensioners is (on average) far richer than those who go before them is surely not in doubt? Again whether that is down to "luck" or "hard work" does not matter much, it is in their economic interests to protect their wealth and that impacts the political sphere.
Yeah I agree, but most pensioners are protecting their wealth for their kids and grandkids, not themselves. You could just as easily point out that when they were 20 somethings, they had to stay living with their parents until they got married, save up and didn’t have wealthy grandparents to leave them big inheritances
While that's true, the average age of buying the first home was in the mid-20s not that long ago.
It's now 34.
It's hard to peg that as progress.
It’s a trade off isn’t it? When my grandparents died, my parents didn’t inherit anything, because their parents lived in council houses. When property owning parents and grand Parents pass away, their family get a windfall, despite having to have rented for longer
That windfall will be a lot smaller in the red wall than it is in Essex. Which is when we find out whether it is just lip service to levelling up from the Tories.
Just to give a quick summary of the overall likely boundary changes based on 2019 votes:
Devon +1 seat +1 Con Somerset +1 seat +1 Con Bristol/Gloucs/S Gloucs +1 seat +1 Lab Isle of Wight +1 seat +1 Con Berks/Hants+1 seat +1 Con Oxon +1 seat +1 Con Bucks +1 seat +1 Con (although Lab's position in Wycombe/MK may be approved) W and E Sussex +1 seat +1 Con Kent +1 seat +1 Con Surrey +1 seat +1 Con Beds+Herts +1 seat +1 Con Cambs +1 seat +1 Con Suffolk + Norfolk +1 seat +1 Con Lambeth +Southwark +1 seat +1 Lab (no longer need to be paired but Southwark will need a ward from Lewisham) Tower Hamlets+Newham +1 seat +1 Lab Central London - Lab should be able to flip one here +1 Lab, -1 Con Lincs and Rutland +1 seat +1 Con Walsall and Wolves -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Dudley and Staffs -1 seat - 1 Con Wirral -1 seat - 1 Lab Cumbria+Lancs -1 seat - 1 LD (Cumbria is only entitled to 5.3 seats meaning a cross-border seat with lancs and the end of Farron's seat) Durham -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Northumberland and Newcastle - 1 seat -1 Con (Blyth Valley is most likely to disappear) Scotland -2 seats -2 LD (Glasgow loses 1 seat and Highland/Abs loses the other but the SNP should eb able toflip both Caithness and NE Fife) Wales -8 seats -3 Con -3 Lab -2 Plaid (Lab loses 4 in the South but they should be able to flip Bridgend. I would expect Plaid to lose 2 in Dyfed Powys and the NW due to their vote being spread thinly and Con to lose 2 in the NE)
Total - Con+5, Lab 0, LD -3, Plaid -2
I have mainly featured areas that will change but within counties that keep the same number of seats there will be changes as well e.g. the Northampton seats have to expand into the current South Northants seat
London will see huge change due to new groupings of the boroughs
Neat list. I think Wansbeck will be the one to go though. Although the likely loss of Cramlington flips it to Labour anyways, meaning -1 Con. As for Durham. It will be South Tyneside and Teesside and Durham. Sedgefield looks favourite for the chop.
Just to give a quick summary of the overall likely boundary changes based on 2019 votes:
Devon +1 seat +1 Con Somerset +1 seat +1 Con Bristol/Gloucs/S Gloucs +1 seat +1 Lab Isle of Wight +1 seat +1 Con Berks/Hants+1 seat +1 Con Oxon +1 seat +1 Con Bucks +1 seat +1 Con (although Lab's position in Wycombe/MK may be approved) W and E Sussex +1 seat +1 Con Kent +1 seat +1 Con Surrey +1 seat +1 Con Beds+Herts +1 seat +1 Con Cambs +1 seat +1 Con Suffolk + Norfolk +1 seat +1 Con Lambeth +Southwark +1 seat +1 Lab (no longer need to be paired but Southwark will need a ward from Lewisham) Tower Hamlets+Newham +1 seat +1 Lab Central London - Lab should be able to flip one here +1 Lab, -1 Con Lincs and Rutland +1 seat +1 Con Walsall and Wolves -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Dudley and Staffs -1 seat - 1 Con Wirral -1 seat - 1 Lab Cumbria+Lancs -1 seat - 1 LD (Cumbria is only entitled to 5.3 seats meaning a cross-border seat with lancs and the end of Farron's seat) Durham -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Northumberland and Newcastle - 1 seat -1 Con (Blyth Valley is most likely to disappear) Scotland -2 seats -2 LD (Glasgow loses 1 seat and Highland/Abs loses the other but the SNP should eb able toflip both Caithness and NE Fife) Wales -8 seats -3 Con -3 Lab -2 Plaid (Lab loses 4 in the South but they should be able to flip Bridgend. I would expect Plaid to lose 2 in Dyfed Powys and the NW due to their vote being spread thinly and Con to lose 2 in the NE)
Total - Con+5, Lab 0, LD -3, Plaid -2
I have mainly featured areas that will change but within counties that keep the same number of seats there will be changes as well e.g. the Northampton seats have to expand into the current South Northants seat
London will see huge change due to new groupings of the boroughs
Neat list. I think Wansbeck will be the one to go though. Although the likely loss of Cramlington flips it to Labour anyways, meaning -1 Con. As for Durham. It will be South Tyneside and Teesside and Durham. Sedgefield looks favourite for the chop.
In the end, the new boundaries are MoE stuff, so won't influence a decision on an early election to any real degree.
Just to give a quick summary of the overall likely boundary changes based on 2019 votes:
Devon +1 seat +1 Con Somerset +1 seat +1 Con Bristol/Gloucs/S Gloucs +1 seat +1 Lab Isle of Wight +1 seat +1 Con Berks/Hants+1 seat +1 Con Oxon +1 seat +1 Con Bucks +1 seat +1 Con (although Lab's position in Wycombe/MK may be approved) W and E Sussex +1 seat +1 Con Kent +1 seat +1 Con Surrey +1 seat +1 Con Beds+Herts +1 seat +1 Con Cambs +1 seat +1 Con Suffolk + Norfolk +1 seat +1 Con Lambeth +Southwark +1 seat +1 Lab (no longer need to be paired but Southwark will need a ward from Lewisham) Tower Hamlets+Newham +1 seat +1 Lab Central London - Lab should be able to flip one here +1 Lab, -1 Con Lincs and Rutland +1 seat +1 Con Walsall and Wolves -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Dudley and Staffs -1 seat - 1 Con Wirral -1 seat - 1 Lab Cumbria+Lancs -1 seat - 1 LD (Cumbria is only entitled to 5.3 seats meaning a cross-border seat with lancs and the end of Farron's seat) Durham -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Northumberland and Newcastle - 1 seat -1 Con (Blyth Valley is most likely to disappear) Scotland -2 seats -2 LD (Glasgow loses 1 seat and Highland/Abs loses the other but the SNP should eb able toflip both Caithness and NE Fife) Wales -8 seats -3 Con -3 Lab -2 Plaid (Lab loses 4 in the South but they should be able to flip Bridgend. I would expect Plaid to lose 2 in Dyfed Powys and the NW due to their vote being spread thinly and Con to lose 2 in the NE)
Total - Con+5, Lab 0, LD -3, Plaid -2
I have mainly featured areas that will change but within counties that keep the same number of seats there will be changes as well e.g. the Northampton seats have to expand into the current South Northants seat
London will see huge change due to new groupings of the boroughs
Neat list. I think Wansbeck will be the one to go though. Although the likely loss of Cramlington flips it to Labour anyways, meaning -1 Con. As for Durham. It will be South Tyneside and Teesside and Durham. Sedgefield looks favourite for the chop.
So less of a bump for Tories from boundary changes, than was typical for most of the 20th century?
Due to shifting demographic patters, such as infilling & gentrification in cities, as well as suburbanites becoming somewhat less Conservative, and small town & rural areas rather less so?
Of course there should be a zero-tariff agreement.
So you wish to see our hill farmers and the landscape they maintain decimated...
Butting in again as usual, I wouldn't like to see the hill farmers decimated, but the landscape they maintain - particularly in the Lake District - is very poor ecologically speaking.
Getting rid of all the sheep would make a vast improvement on that front.
Would it destroy the "look" of the Lake District? Maybe. But it hasn't been that way forever.
The same goes for a lot of Welsh hills.
The decimation of the Welsh hill farmers would finally destroy the only really Welsh-speaking communities left in Wales.
Just to give a quick summary of the overall likely boundary changes based on 2019 votes:
Devon +1 seat +1 Con Somerset +1 seat +1 Con Bristol/Gloucs/S Gloucs +1 seat +1 Lab Isle of Wight +1 seat +1 Con Berks/Hants+1 seat +1 Con Oxon +1 seat +1 Con Bucks +1 seat +1 Con (although Lab's position in Wycombe/MK may be approved) W and E Sussex +1 seat +1 Con Kent +1 seat +1 Con Surrey +1 seat +1 Con Beds+Herts +1 seat +1 Con Cambs +1 seat +1 Con Suffolk + Norfolk +1 seat +1 Con Lambeth +Southwark +1 seat +1 Lab (no longer need to be paired but Southwark will need a ward from Lewisham) Tower Hamlets+Newham +1 seat +1 Lab Central London - Lab should be able to flip one here +1 Lab, -1 Con Lincs and Rutland +1 seat +1 Con Walsall and Wolves -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Dudley and Staffs -1 seat - 1 Con Wirral -1 seat - 1 Lab Cumbria+Lancs -1 seat - 1 LD (Cumbria is only entitled to 5.3 seats meaning a cross-border seat with lancs and the end of Farron's seat) Durham -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat) Northumberland and Newcastle - 1 seat -1 Con (Blyth Valley is most likely to disappear) Scotland -2 seats -2 LD (Glasgow loses 1 seat and Highland/Abs loses the other but the SNP should eb able toflip both Caithness and NE Fife) Wales -8 seats -3 Con -3 Lab -2 Plaid (Lab loses 4 in the South but they should be able to flip Bridgend. I would expect Plaid to lose 2 in Dyfed Powys and the NW due to their vote being spread thinly and Con to lose 2 in the NE)
Total - Con+5, Lab 0, LD -3, Plaid -2
I have mainly featured areas that will change but within counties that keep the same number of seats there will be changes as well e.g. the Northampton seats have to expand into the current South Northants seat
London will see huge change due to new groupings of the boroughs
Neat list. I think Wansbeck will be the one to go though. Although the likely loss of Cramlington flips it to Labour anyways, meaning -1 Con. As for Durham. It will be South Tyneside and Teesside and Durham. Sedgefield looks favourite for the chop.
So less of a bump for Tories from boundary changes, than was typical for most of the 20th century?
Due to shifting demographic patters, such as infilling & gentrification in cities, as well as suburbanites becoming somewhat less Conservative, and small town & rural areas rather less so?
The Tories have new found success in areas of declining populations. That didn't happen before much. In addition, city living was more trendy pre-pandemic. Old industrial cities like Liverpool had spectacular population falls in the last 3 decades of last century. That has reversed. Quite substantially. London used to lose seats in the Central area. Now it is gaining.
I think a major problem with the whole BAME idea is the spectacular success of both Indian and Chinese immigrants in this country. Both earn above the national average, have higher levels of professional qualifications etc. Both achieve this because they have strong and very positive cultural values that admire hard work, education and success. Both seem to me to fit a lot more comfortably with the Tories than the victimhood mindset of so many in the Labour party as the current HS and Chancellor indicate.
Groups that do not have those cultural advantages, including many poor white kids, really struggle and our education system does a pretty crap job of helping them out or allowing them to reach their potential. This is bad for all of us but the reluctance to accept the root of the problem really doesn't help.
The thing that boggles my mind is class sizes of 30 plus in state schools.
How on earth can teachers work with pupils who need help on an individual basis?
I was taught in class sizes of around a dozen.
Abolish the department for education and use the money to give vouchers for schools to the parents, the lower the parent/carer tax bracket the more vouchers they.
An entirely privatised school system might just allow the kids who really need help to break the cycle.
Are you turning into a left wing heretic?
My wife is involved in foster caring. I made the foolish mistake at a dinner party of suggesting that local authorities, paying money-motivated foster carers (not all, but a fair percentage) a fortune to babysit intelligent children during the evening and send them to sink schools during the day was not cost effective. They should instead, I suggested, pay the likes of Malvern, Clifton, Marlborough and Cheltenham Colleges the money. This would have a twofold effect of breaking the costly cycle of a social security lifestyle, and creating worthy taxpayers. I was almost ****ing lynched as a communist. The concensus was, as taxpayers who could not afford to send their moderately well-off children to a Headmaster's Conference school, they didn't see why these "peasant" children should get the benefit.
Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.
Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud
Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:
"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."
*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.
Something like +7 compared to +24 I think
So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.
I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.
I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.
The big divider is age not class or colour or colour of wall. Hardly surprising when we have the richest cohort of pensioners ever, and the first generation of workers who will do less well than their parents since the big wars.
Woke is a distraction and reflection of age.
My parents are both in their mid 70s, both still work part time. When they were full time they never earnt big money - local govt Admin/Woolworths & a labourer/sports coach. 15% interest rates when they were skint & paying a mortgage. 0.1% now they’ve paid the house off & have decent savings. So they’re now quite rich, through having modest tastes and living within their means. But they’re still working class, ex council house kids who never earnt more than 40k pa - lefties are trying to say they’re wrongly defined as working class in polls though.
Yes but their economic interests are essentially aligned with a millionaire banker now - inflate assets and squeeze the workers through rents and taxes.
Those with assets are voting Tory, those without are split roughly 50-50.
Well they aren’t voting Tory, but I don’t see why being sensible and saving their whole life transformed them from being working class to something else. Class isn’t about bank balance - if Prince Harry goes skint and works in McDonalds, he won’t be working class.
And what about interest rates pensioners paid/what they receive now? How’s that them being so lucky?
Yes, very frequently people want to self declare as working class, as that is how they see themselves. It is quite common with University academics to do so for example, and in many liberal professions.
Solicitors from Sheffield from example?
I'm as working class as foie gras I am modest.
My life outcomes were determined by my father's occupation and his choice to send me to a private school.
It says a lot about the English/British class system that my grandfather, a brown skinned immigrant to this country, had a son and grandson who are part of the upper middle classes, whilst my grandfather became a member of the middle class the moment he arrived in the country.
It still boils my piss that Corbyn said only Labour can unlock the talents of BAME people.
It frustrates me no end that plenty of people, mostly on the left, like to lump me into the BAME group when I have absolutely nothing in common with a black kid on a council estate.
These people are as dangerous as those people who say there's no racism in this country/immigrants don't assimilate.
I think a major problem with the whole BAME idea is the spectacular success of both Indian and Chinese immigrants in this country. Both earn above the national average, have higher levels of professional qualifications etc. Both achieve this because they have strong and very positive cultural values that admire hard work, education and success. Both seem to me to fit a lot more comfortably with the Tories than the victimhood mindset of so many in the Labour party as the current HS and Chancellor indicate.
Groups that do not have those cultural advantages, including many poor white kids, really struggle and our education system does a pretty crap job of helping them out or allowing them to reach their potential. This is bad for all of us but the reluctance to accept the root of the problem really doesn't help.
In my opinion the earliest, simplest biggest difference is between kids who read at home, and those that don't. And parents that read to or with their kids, and those that don't.
My daughter has been able to read her reading books from school but until recently was struggling with the books we have got her. Last week it was like a lightbulb turning on, she's got a novel that she could read all by herself and she's had her nose inside books now all week. Put her to bed on the weekend and went past her room earlier and she was sat up in bed reading to herself - I was so proud of her. We got her a boxed set of the novels that she's enjoying and are giving them to her one-by-one as she finishes each one.
Kids that aren't encouraged at home. Kids that don't have books at home. Matilda is very much an exception, not a norm, and there's little schools can do to make up for that.
I think a major problem with the whole BAME idea is the spectacular success of both Indian and Chinese immigrants in this country. Both earn above the national average, have higher levels of professional qualifications etc. Both achieve this because they have strong and very positive cultural values that admire hard work, education and success. Both seem to me to fit a lot more comfortably with the Tories than the victimhood mindset of so many in the Labour party as the current HS and Chancellor indicate.
Groups that do not have those cultural advantages, including many poor white kids, really struggle and our education system does a pretty crap job of helping them out or allowing them to reach their potential. This is bad for all of us but the reluctance to accept the root of the problem really doesn't help.
The thing that boggles my mind is class sizes of 30 plus in state schools.
How on earth can teachers work with pupils who need help on an individual basis?
I was taught in class sizes of around a dozen.
Abolish the department for education and use the money to give vouchers for schools to the parents, the lower the parent/carer tax bracket the more vouchers they.
An entirely privatised school system might just allow the kids who really need help to break the cycle.
Thank god your flavour of Tory is no longer near Government.
Of course there should be a zero-tariff agreement.
So you wish to see our hill farmers and the landscape they maintain decimated...
Butting in again as usual, I wouldn't like to see the hill farmers decimated, but the landscape they maintain - particularly in the Lake District - is very poor ecologically speaking.
Getting rid of all the sheep would make a vast improvement on that front.
Would it destroy the "look" of the Lake District? Maybe. But it hasn't been that way forever.
The same goes for a lot of Welsh hills.
The decimation of the Welsh hill farmers would finally destroy the only really Welsh-speaking communities left in Wales.
Is that not happening already? I'd have put tourism as the biggest industry in most of Gwynedd and Ynys Mon, and that is presumably displacing the Welsh language to some degree (hence Meibion Glyndwr). Perhaps in parts of upland Carmarthen there are fewer visitors, but that's not really the landscape I'm thinking of anyway.
It is a bit different to the Lakes, maybe, where half the land now seems to be owned by the National Trust and is still farmed the way it is because people have decided they like the landscape, overgrazed or not. I can't imagine it pays, Australian imports or otherwise.
Important to note this is lower than their GE19 score & Labour’s is higher
Redfield & Wilton
Westminster Voting Intention (17 May):
Conservative 42% (-3) Labour 33% (-1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+2) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Green 6% (+1) Other 5% (+1)
Changes +/- 10 May
Lowest Lab % since May 2020
It actually matches Labour's 2019 GB vote share - 33%.
That's a solid platform at a time when things are rock bottom. Make no mistake - Labour are slap bang in the running for the next GE. People giving it to the Tories are getting carried away. All the old rules are useless, including the one that says Oppositions should have a poll lead mid parliament if they are to have a chance.
I’ll bet you an even grand Tories win a majority at the next GE
Comments
I find it quite positive for social cohesion.
But NOT quite like those movies where the army ants march across the jungle gobbling up whole plantations, villages, towns & cities in their wake. Mostly just a lot of weird-looking bugs mostly dead. IIRC a real feast for birds & other critters who like nice grass-feed insects!
There seem to be a lot of sporadic cases in China too. It is hard to see how they can escape.
But such a deal risks inflaming arguments over Scottish and Welsh independence because the likely impact of zero-tariff imports of Australian lamb and beef will land hardest in rural areas such as Scottish and Welsh hill farms.
Devon +1 seat +1 Con
Somerset +1 seat +1 Con
Bristol/Gloucs/S Gloucs +1 seat +1 Lab
Isle of Wight +1 seat +1 Con
Berks/Hants+1 seat +1 Con
Oxon +1 seat +1 Con
Bucks +1 seat +1 Con (although Lab's position in Wycombe/MK may be approved)
W and E Sussex +1 seat +1 Con
Kent +1 seat +1 Con
Surrey +1 seat +1 Con
Beds+Herts +1 seat +1 Con
Cambs +1 seat +1 Con
Suffolk + Norfolk +1 seat +1 Con
Lambeth +Southwark +1 seat +1 Lab (no longer need to be paired but Southwark will need a ward from Lewisham)
Tower Hamlets+Newham +1 seat +1 Lab
Central London - Lab should be able to flip one here +1 Lab, -1 Con
Lincs and Rutland +1 seat +1 Con
Walsall and Wolves -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat)
Dudley and Staffs -1 seat - 1 Con
Wirral -1 seat - 1 Lab
Cumbria+Lancs -1 seat - 1 LD (Cumbria is only entitled to 5.3 seats meaning a cross-border seat with lancs and the end of Farron's seat)
Durham -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat)
Northumberland and Newcastle - 1 seat -1 Con (Blyth Valley is most likely to disappear)
Scotland -2 seats -2 LD (Glasgow loses 1 seat and Highland/Abs loses the other but the SNP should eb able toflip both Caithness and NE Fife)
Wales -8 seats -3 Con -3 Lab -2 Plaid (Lab loses 4 in the South but they should be able to flip Bridgend. I would expect Plaid to lose 2 in Dyfed Powys and the NW due to their vote being spread thinly and Con to lose 2 in the NE)
Total - Con+5, Lab 0, LD -3, Plaid -2
I have mainly featured areas that will change but within counties that keep the same number of seats there will be changes as well e.g. the Northampton seats have to expand into the current South Northants seat
London will see huge change due to new groupings of the boroughs
The usual sign that a tree has these bugs is the foliage from one or more major limbs drying up brown against the deep green.
It’s like your partner saying they like you just as much as all the other people that fancy them, when you used to be their one and only - it’s not good news
My life outcomes were determined by my father's occupation and his choice to send me to a private school.
It says a lot about the English/British class system that my grandfather, a brown skinned immigrant to this country, had a son and grandson who are part of the upper middle classes, whilst my grandfather became a member of the middle class the moment he arrived in the country.
It still boils my piss that Corbyn said only Labour can unlock the talents of BAME people.
It frustrates me no end that plenty of people, mostly on the left, like to lump me into the BAME group when I have absolutely nothing in common with a black kid on a council estate.
These people are as dangerous as those people who say there's no racism in this country/immigrants don't assimilate.
What is interesting is that the way to win them back is not fundamentally different to how Labour win back other voters, and also that Labour is not dead there.
It's why India and Eastern Europe were hardly affected first time around.
I know my 1980s economic theory that an increase in M3 is inflationary has been ridiculed as "old hat", however I still can't see past a two year boom followed by significant inflation, interest rate rises and everything else that follows, namely, bust.
On topic, this is why Johnson would be wise to look at a snap election in late 2022 or Spring 2023, giving the Conservatives a solid five year majority, soon thereafter handing over to Sunak before the excrement hits the AC.
It's now 34.
It's hard to peg that as progress.
Also "Grandpa Shops" (brothels for old folk), and the many, many temples of Wanhua (my old stomping ground), which is the oldest, and most higgledy piggledy part of town.
The original port, and most deprived part of Taipei. Has all the risk factors youd imagine. Taipei is rammed. High density, high-rise housing.
There might be a case for beef.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22362042/cicada-brood-x-map-2021
Groups that do not have those cultural advantages, including many poor white kids, really struggle and our education system does a pretty crap job of helping them out or allowing them to reach their potential. This is bad for all of us but the reluctance to accept the root of the problem really doesn't help.
From what I gather (by reading the paper and talking to folks somewhat in the know here in the Emerald City) both Bill & Melinda have made major personal contributions, but she somewhat more than he. One thing that Bill definitely brought with him, is the "take no prisoners" management style he made famous (or rather infamous) at Microsoft. In terms of dealing with actual & potential competitors - and even more so in treatment of managers & esp. contract workers.
Of course there should be a zero-tariff agreement.
As a kid & young adult wasn't scary or creepy, just weird. But pretty soon you got used to it - and then they were gone, until the next hatch years later.
How on earth can teachers work with pupils who need help on an individual basis?
I was taught in class sizes of around a dozen.
Abolish the department for education and use the money to give vouchers for schools to the parents, the lower the parent/carer tax bracket the more vouchers they.
An entirely privatised school system might just allow the kids who really need help to break the cycle.
Though they ARE total vegans, and extremely wokish!
“Fears that spread of variant may end in tiers”
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1394404799576219649
Getting rid of all the sheep would make a vast improvement on that front.
Would it destroy the "look" of the Lake District? Maybe. But it hasn't been that way forever.
The same goes for a lot of Welsh hills.
I think Wansbeck will be the one to go though. Although the likely loss of Cramlington flips it to Labour anyways, meaning -1 Con.
As for Durham. It will be South Tyneside and Teesside and Durham. Sedgefield looks favourite for the chop.
Due to shifting demographic patters, such as infilling & gentrification in cities, as well as suburbanites becoming somewhat less Conservative, and small town & rural areas rather less so?
My wife is involved in foster caring. I made the foolish mistake at a dinner party of suggesting that local authorities, paying money-motivated foster carers (not all, but a fair percentage) a fortune to babysit intelligent children during the evening and send them to sink schools during the day was not cost effective. They should instead, I suggested, pay the likes of Malvern, Clifton, Marlborough and Cheltenham Colleges the money. This would have a twofold effect of breaking the costly cycle of a social security lifestyle, and creating worthy taxpayers. I was almost ****ing lynched as a communist. The concensus was, as taxpayers who could not afford to send their moderately well-off children to a Headmaster's Conference school, they didn't see why these "peasant" children should get the benefit.
My daughter has been able to read her reading books from school but until recently was struggling with the books we have got her. Last week it was like a lightbulb turning on, she's got a novel that she could read all by herself and she's had her nose inside books now all week. Put her to bed on the weekend and went past her room earlier and she was sat up in bed reading to herself - I was so proud of her. We got her a boxed set of the novels that she's enjoying and are giving them to her one-by-one as she finishes each one.
Kids that aren't encouraged at home. Kids that don't have books at home. Matilda is very much an exception, not a norm, and there's little schools can do to make up for that.
That's what the Kiwis did and it works
Besides, in the unlikely event that there's absolutely no way for them to be competitive then maybe we'll have more space for housing. 😉
It is a bit different to the Lakes, maybe, where half the land now seems to be owned by the National Trust and is still farmed the way it is because people have decided they like the landscape, overgrazed or not. I can't imagine it pays, Australian imports or otherwise.