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One in nine of those younger than 25 on the YouGov panel don’t even know who Tony Blair was – politi

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,754

    alex_ said:

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
    Bit difficult to have more restrictions in this country when the government is simultaneously allowing people to fly to Portugal.
    And remarkably the Portuguese government want us to go.
    Maybe they are as stupid as our lords and masters when it comes to flights in and out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,754

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
    The virus is seasonal.
    Only in the sense that the weather influences social behaviour. It doesn't go away because of the time of year.
    Reference?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,673

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
    The virus is seasonal.
    Only in the sense that the weather influences social behaviour. It doesn't go away because of the time of year.
    Only because surface transmission, despite all the initial panic, doesn’t appear that significant. In warm humid conditions viruses generally don’t live very long on surfaces.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,789

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
    The virus is seasonal.
    Only in the sense that the weather influences social behaviour. It doesn't go away because of the time of year.
    Reference?
    You can find peaks in summer and winter around the world.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because this is the internet, and you’re only ever one step away from being called all sorts of names, I will also emphasise that I have no time at all for Hammas. But then the passing of the PLO and a chance for peace was kind of the Israeli’s fault too.

    Hammas? It's written thusly in Arabic: حماس

    Note there is no consonant doubling shaddah over the mim (Arabic 'm').

    Compare and contrast with hummus: حُمُّص

    HAMAS. Which is also an Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and literally means 'zeal'.

    These are basics, people.
    But is חומוס ישראלי superior to Hamas hummus?

    I've heard this is something over which people are willing to fight to the death.
    So just like everything else in the ME.
    I think even the Arabs accept Israeli hummus is something else.

    After you’ve eaten it, even the very finest hummus from elsewhere tastes like semi-liquid cardboard.
    Nah - the best hummus o ever had was in a tumbledown shack in a back alley in Ramallah. I was just catching up with some friends and they took me there to meet someone.
    For me it was the backstreets of Jaffa decades ago- an Arab place frequented by Jews because the hummus was so good. And my God, it was good

    Tel Aviv was an optimistic place then, and there was a sense maybe peace could be found

    I remember the first time I encountered deeply racist Israeli Jews. An eerie young orthodox couple in an eco-resort in the Negev desert. Around 2003 or so? They unsettled everyone, their loathing of Arabs was cool and pure. A few days later I had dinner with some guy in Jerusalem who was a senior reservist in the Israeli army. He openly speculated about wiping out or kicking out the Palestinians, even as he was good fun over wine. For him it was just a practical necessity

    My doubts about Israel's future were sown



  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    People like Beckett cannot see Priti Patel, Sajid Javid, Trever Phillips etc... as minorities because minorities support their views. It's a really ugly blind spot.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1393160472908771332?s=20

    The Blessed Owen has weighed in:

    Double standards Jones...if a Tory or a business had suggested deporting an ethnic minority MP, he would be organizing a pile-on and boycott.
    Imagine if a Tory had said that David Lammy or Diane Abbott should be deported. Would he be so forgiving then? This is my problem with any Talking Head like Owen. They are almost always blind to their own sides failures.
    He was clear sighted on antisemitism. And he said this tweet was bad. There are many more one eyed than he. Including many of those attacking him on this.
    Hm. Here’s Owen Jones totally not being a gigantic hypocrite on the topic of racism:


    But as I say, there are far worse hypocrites and these include most of those who attack him.

    I read lots of his stuff. You just see what right wing warriors pluck and copy. You aren't knowledgeable here.

    My opinion thus trumps yours on this subject. Just as yours does mine on Julius Caesar.
    I understand: you like him because you like him. I'm generally the same with people. But his claim to affection and respect on the basis of consistent moral leadership is ... tenuous at best.

    Would Gaius have gone on Twitter, I wonder, and outraged it with his illeism? Or would he have declared, with justice, quot pipiatores, tot fatui?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
    The virus is seasonal.
    Only in the sense that the weather influences social behaviour. It doesn't go away because of the time of year.
    Reference?
    Ecuador, Brazil and Colombia, say hi
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,580

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    People like Beckett cannot see Priti Patel, Sajid Javid, Trever Phillips etc... as minorities because minorities support their views. It's a really ugly blind spot.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1393160472908771332?s=20

    The Blessed Owen has weighed in:

    Double standards Jones...if a Tory or a business had suggested deporting an ethnic minority MP, he would be organizing a pile-on and boycott.
    Imagine if a Tory had said that David Lammy or Diane Abbott should be deported. Would he be so forgiving then? This is my problem with any Talking Head like Owen. They are almost always blind to their own sides failures.
    He was clear sighted on antisemitism. And he said this tweet was bad. There are many more one eyed than he. Including many of those attacking him on this.
    Hm. Here’s Owen Jones totally not being a gigantic hypocrite on the topic of racism:


    But as I say, there are far worse hypocrites and these include most of those who attack him.

    I read lots of his stuff. You just see what right wing warriors pluck and copy. You aren't knowledgeable here.

    My opinion thus trumps yours on this subject. Just as yours does mine on Julius Caesar.
    I understand: you like him because you like him. I'm generally the same with people. But his claim to affection and respect on the basis of consistent moral leadership is ... tenuous at best.

    Would Gaius have gone on Twitter, I wonder, and outraged it with his illeism? Or would he have declared, with justice, quot pipiatores, tot fatui?
    Well quot pipiatores tot fatui - obvs.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,421
    Hummus?

    Yuk!

    Night all.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    Re: SAGE, maybe PB epidemiologists (academic and armchair) could form our own panel?

    Scientific Organizing Directorate & Overseers of Fact and Fiction. Or SOD-OFF for short.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,673
    Germany plans to classify Britain as a coronavirus risk region due to the emergence of the highly infectious variant first detected in India, government sources said on Friday.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,503
    Mortimer said:


    I agree.

    Not sure if anyone here has noticed, but society has basically returned to normality. The govt are about a month behind the curve. Everyone I know has been hugging for ages, going for dinners, having boozy evenings etc since late March.

    And case numbers are tiny, hospitalisations smaller still.

    We've noticed before that this varies a lot with social circles. None of that has been true for anyone I know, including colleagues at work in their 20s and 30s. They are now starting to go to outdoor pub gardens. They're still extremely wary of any physical contact at all and I know people who've been vaccinated twice who remain extremely cautious - more than I am at this point.

    I'm not doubting that you're right about your circle. Maybe it's an urban thing? The people I know are all nearly in small towns and villages.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190
    IanB2 said:

    Germany plans to classify Britain as a coronavirus risk region due to the emergence of the highly infectious variant first detected in India, government sources said on Friday.

    Christ, we're the pariahs of Europe again. Well done Boris

    Tho I wonder if Germany should be looking south. Italy also has the India-bug very bad
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,503
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:



    The general silence of liberal America on Gaza is quite something to behold. Black Lives Matter but Palestinian Lives..... Don't?

    This is especially perplexing when Israel is doing to Palestine pretty much exactly what Derek Chauvin did to George Floyd. A slow, steady asphyxiation, laced with contempt, apparently untroubled by the consequences

    The AOC left are vocal. Who do you mean - just general liberal "types"?

    Very good comparison btw.
    See https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/05/14/americas-democrats-are-increasingly-divided-over-israel?utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2021-05-14&utm_content=article-link-1&etear=nl_today_1 (paywall)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,580
    isam said:

    Hopefully the material of tomorrow’s header

    David Herdson on Twitter

    “After 13 months in office, the only Leaders of the Opposition since 1977 whose net satisfaction ratings were worse* than Keir Starmer's were Jeremy Corbyn, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Foot - and all bar Foot were very close.

    * Ipsos-Mori series”

    What an original choice that would be.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,308
    Ian Paisley Jr having a mental one on Newsnight.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,789
    IanB2 said:

    Germany plans to classify Britain as a coronavirus risk region due to the emergence of the highly infectious variant first detected in India, government sources said on Friday.

    Source? Can you attach a link with quotations like these.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    People like Beckett cannot see Priti Patel, Sajid Javid, Trever Phillips etc... as minorities because minorities support their views. It's a really ugly blind spot.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1393160472908771332?s=20

    The Blessed Owen has weighed in:

    Double standards Jones...if a Tory or a business had suggested deporting an ethnic minority MP, he would be organizing a pile-on and boycott.
    Imagine if a Tory had said that David Lammy or Diane Abbott should be deported. Would he be so forgiving then? This is my problem with any Talking Head like Owen. They are almost always blind to their own sides failures.
    He was clear sighted on antisemitism. And he said this tweet was bad. There are many more one eyed than he. Including many of those attacking him on this.
    Hm. Here’s Owen Jones totally not being a gigantic hypocrite on the topic of racism:


    But as I say, there are far worse hypocrites and these include most of those who attack him.

    I read lots of his stuff. You just see what right wing warriors pluck and copy. You aren't knowledgeable here.

    My opinion thus trumps yours on this subject. Just as yours does mine on Julius Caesar.
    I understand: you like him because you like him. I'm generally the same with people. But his claim to affection and respect on the basis of consistent moral leadership is ... tenuous at best.

    Would Gaius have gone on Twitter, I wonder, and outraged it with his illeism? Or would he have declared, with justice, quot pipiatores, tot fatui?
    "outraged it with his illeism"?

    Now you are outraging me! Kindly keep your filthy Latin vices to yourself!!!

    And pipiatores? Really? So nasty that even Google refuses to translate it!!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,420
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Germany plans to classify Britain as a coronavirus risk region due to the emergence of the highly infectious variant first detected in India, government sources said on Friday.

    Christ, we're the pariahs of Europe again. Well done Boris

    Tho I wonder if Germany should be looking south. Italy also has the India-bug very bad
    And yet we are going for airbridge scheme v3 so people can get a bit of sun in Portugal. We are just going to import more.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    Spare a thought for the Treasury tonight. Looking at the sea of red debt and thinking that SAGE are edging us towards another lockdown.

    If the Treasury had paid attention to SAGE in Septmeber rather than dishonest Covid Denialist we'd be in a vastly better position now.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766

    Ian Paisley Jr having a mental one on Newsnight.

    Bears same relationship (in more ways than one) to his father, as Franklin Graham does to his daddy.

    First time drama, second time farce.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190
    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886
    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,945
    edited May 14
    Hoping my trip to London on Monday won't be cancelled. Already booked the hotel.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Germany plans to classify Britain as a coronavirus risk region due to the emergence of the highly infectious variant first detected in India, government sources said on Friday.

    Christ, we're the pariahs of Europe again. Well done Boris

    Tho I wonder if Germany should be looking south. Italy also has the India-bug very bad
    Much more & even Gibraltar won't have you. But always South Sandwich Islands to fall back on
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Germany plans to classify Britain as a coronavirus risk region due to the emergence of the highly infectious variant first detected in India, government sources said on Friday.

    Christ, we're the pariahs of Europe again. Well done Boris

    Tho I wonder if Germany should be looking south. Italy also has the India-bug very bad
    And yet we are going for airbridge scheme v3 so people can get a bit of sun in Portugal. We are just going to import more.
    No one is going to Portugal, I don't think. With the UKG panicking the EU will keep borders closed. See Germany already
  • isamisam Posts: 38,599
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Hopefully the material of tomorrow’s header

    David Herdson on Twitter

    “After 13 months in office, the only Leaders of the Opposition since 1977 whose net satisfaction ratings were worse* than Keir Starmer's were Jeremy Corbyn, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Foot - and all bar Foot were very close.

    * Ipsos-Mori series”

    What an original choice that would be.
    It would, wouldn’t it? Sir Keir’s abysmal ratings have barely been mentioned above the line.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,580
    Anyway, a closer with real bite from me today -

    Johnson is NOT wobbling on the roadmap. He's simply playing with the narrative. Having a bit of a laugh with it. It's how he is.

    That's my 100% genuine take.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Germany plans to classify Britain as a coronavirus risk region due to the emergence of the highly infectious variant first detected in India, government sources said on Friday.

    Christ, we're the pariahs of Europe again. Well done Boris

    Tho I wonder if Germany should be looking south. Italy also has the India-bug very bad
    And yet we are going for airbridge scheme v3 so people can get a bit of sun in Portugal. We are just going to import more.
    I wonder how many will justify a holiday in Portugal by continual whining about the London weather.

    Though the irony of panicking over an imported variant while simultaneously opening up more foreign travel is intense.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886

    Ian Paisley Jr having a mental one on Newsnight.

    How can you tell ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886

    Mortimer said:


    I agree.

    Not sure if anyone here has noticed, but society has basically returned to normality. The govt are about a month behind the curve. Everyone I know has been hugging for ages, going for dinners, having boozy evenings etc since late March.

    And case numbers are tiny, hospitalisations smaller still.

    We've noticed before that this varies a lot with social circles. None of that has been true for anyone I know, including colleagues at work in their 20s and 30s. They are now starting to go to outdoor pub gardens. They're still extremely wary of any physical contact at all and I know people who've been vaccinated twice who remain extremely cautious - more than I am at this point.

    I'm not doubting that you're right about your circle. Maybe it's an urban thing? The people I know are all nearly in small towns and villages.
    I suspect it depends greatly on the individual's work situation.

    For those who are, and have been throughout, working at their standard place of work then things have never been that non-normal.

    For those working from home or furloughed its different.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190
    The Daily Mail has a much calmer perspective

    "The dire SAGE warning that Indian variant could put 10,000 in hospital a day within months - which puts end of lockdown in peril and led scientists to BACK regional vaccine surges"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580159/SAGE-says-realistic-possibility-Indian-variant-lead-10-000-hospital-admissions-day.html
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,308
    One for Leon. We all stand on the shoulders of giants.

    https://twitter.com/clapifyoulikeme/status/1393253054745661444?s=21
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,967
    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rpjs said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    There's a widespread expectation among Westminster-based journalists and foreign correspondents reporting from London that a huge constitutional bust up between Sturgeon and Johnson is inevitable. But it's not clear the British government has to do anything 1/9
    ....

    In either event, the constitutional clash between London and Edinburgh doesn't happen. The 2nd referendum is stopped by Scots in Scottish courts by Scottish judges, with the Johnson government looking on. Not quite the SNP playbook. 9/9


    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1393201453863419909?s=20

    Very plausable
    Doesn't surprise me, esp after the prorogation case (which had Unionists astounded as the UKSC wouldn't override Scots law as she is spoke in Parliament Square - remember).

    The law does need to be checked and tested, but the issue always was that the law itself was incompatible with the mandates conferred on the Scottish Pmt. Which will put the ball in the Westminster court sooner or later.
    The MSPs *can’t* get a mandate that is ultra vires. It simply isn’t a mandate.

    It’s like a candidate for PCC in Yorkshire making a declaration of war on Germany the centrepiece of his manifesto. Even if he’s elected it doesn’t mean he has a mandate to declare war on Germany
    That's right, if you are relying solely on a legal technicality, but it expresses what is wanted - a change in the law, and that is in the political realm [edit]. And I'm off to finish what I am doing as we are now at the same old logjam.
    Around 50% want a further referendum. Not an overwhelming case.
    More than half the Scottish Pmt. And most of the Scottish representation in HoC. Which is the way things work in a representative democracy. Which is where we were before. So I'll change the subject now and admire the blue sky asnd puffy white clouds outside.
    Not in ultra vires matters

    - Holyrood has no authority in this matter. It’s composition is irrelevant
    - Westminster doesn’t have a nationalist majority
    - The case that the SNP can make is that there is a moral imperative for Westminster to grant a referendum because there is overwhelming demand. But if you add all the votes cast in the latest election is about 50/50.
    Right, but what does "ultra vires" mean in this context? Obviously it's clear that an Act of Holyrood actually declaring Scotland independent of the United Kingdom would not be lawful under the Scotland Act, but is that the case for legislation authorizing a referendum? Historically, local government in the UK has been very constrained as to what it can authorize the expenditure of public money on, with, in general, any expenditure on a matter not specifically authorized by statute being ultra vires and the councillors subject to surcharge to reclaim such monies spent.

    In recent years though, legislation has been passed to allow local authorities to assume a general power of competence in which the formula is reversed: they may spend public money on any matter of benefit to their community unless specifically forbidden to by statute. IIRC, this power was first enacted by Westminster for English authorities, but at least one of the devolved assemblies (NI, I think) has enacted it for its local authorities. So, if a devolved assembly can confer a general power of competence upon its local authorities, then surely it follows that it itself possesses such a power?

    So in that case, is it ultra vires for Scotland to hold a referendum? It could be argued that all the Scottish government would be doing is asking its electorate for authorization to negotiate an extension of the Scottish Parliament's powers with the UK government. As the Scotland Act (and the legislation for Wales and NI too) has been amended several times since 1998 to give Scotland more powers, and presumably the Scottish government must have spent public money on the process of requesting and negotiating such powers, how is the expenditure on an independence referendum any different?
    All matters related to the Union are specifically reserved to Westminster
    Just 6 Tory Westminster seats in Scotland...
    So?
    It would be better if you skipped the pseudo-intellectual justification and simply admitted that you don't want Scotland to be independent so they can't have their referendum. At least it would be more honest.
    If the Scots vote for independence they can be independent. I think it will be a shame but it’s up to them.

    However the majority of people who voted in 2014 chose to stay part of the United Kingdom. They have the right to have that decision respected. After a period of time - I think about 20 years but there is no magic to that - there can be another vote. The exception is if there is evidence that an overwhelming majority of voters have changed their mind. That is not there - the split is about 50/50
    The split in 2013 was about 27:73 IIRC. And your party allowed a referendum then.
    I wasn’t a member of any party then and I am not now either.

    But there hadn’t been a referendum for 35 years. I wasn’t happy that I had never had a chance to vote on EU membership so it’s reasonable people should have a chance to vote occasionally on Scottish membership of the UK
    Regarding the idea of generational referendums. Should it not be that once people not born at the time of the last one are now eligible to vote then the question can be reopened?
    That seems to have a certain internal logic to me.

    That’s part of my logic for thinking every 20 years is about right.
    This is a nonsense idea. Why should there be a vote every 20 years if there's no demand for it?

    What you need is 2 things at the same time. Demand + Rationale.

    We have that now. The rationale is Brexit - to justify a vote within a decade of the last one.

    And the demand is the democratic mandate from the Scottish election. Seats, just as for Westminster.

    This really is it.

    Against this is just one thing - Westminster's legal right to refuse it.

    You're spinning like a top to avoid accepting what cannot be disputed.
    You just don’t get it.

    MSPs are elected to represent the voters of Scotland for a certain remit.

    Not anything else.

    The referendum is outside that remit.

    So all they can do is advocate for Westminster to authorise a referendum

    The strongest argument would be “there is overwhelming demand from the voters”. Except there isn’t.

    It’s not particularly complicated.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886

    alex_ said:

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
    Bit difficult to have more restrictions in this country when the government is simultaneously allowing people to fly to Portugal.
    And remarkably the Portuguese government want us to go.
    Not just the Portuguese.

    All of Club Med would allow British tourists back right now.

    They'd let every variant possible in if it led to their hotels being filled.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 608
    Back to European weather, the ECMWF model (by some way the most accurate at medium range) brings frost back to much of Northern Europe by the 24th.

    www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_2.png
    https://meteologix.com/bo/model-charts/euro/france/min-temperature-6h/20210524-0600z.html

    (actual ground temperatures will be lower).

    Most vineyards in France, Germany, much of North Italy and Spain have already lost their 2021 crop. This will finish off a few more. Look at the Mosel, or Chablis.

    Any seasonal effect on COVID is going to be heavily mitigated by this unseasonable May weather shoving everyone back indoors.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190
    TimS said:

    Back to European weather, the ECMWF model (by some way the most accurate at medium range) brings frost back to much of Northern Europe by the 24th.

    www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_2.png
    https://meteologix.com/bo/model-charts/euro/france/min-temperature-6h/20210524-0600z.html

    (actual ground temperatures will be lower).

    Most vineyards in France, Germany, much of North Italy and Spain have already lost their 2021 crop. This will finish off a few more. Look at the Mosel, or Chablis.

    Any seasonal effect on COVID is going to be heavily mitigated by this unseasonable May weather shoving everyone back indoors.

    Yes, I'm trying to explain this to the PB weather virgins. We are looking at potentially historic cold, on top of already quite notable cold
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,308
    Charles said:

    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rpjs said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    There's a widespread expectation among Westminster-based journalists and foreign correspondents reporting from London that a huge constitutional bust up between Sturgeon and Johnson is inevitable. But it's not clear the British government has to do anything 1/9
    ....

    In either event, the constitutional clash between London and Edinburgh doesn't happen. The 2nd referendum is stopped by Scots in Scottish courts by Scottish judges, with the Johnson government looking on. Not quite the SNP playbook. 9/9


    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1393201453863419909?s=20

    Very plausable
    Doesn't surprise me, esp after the prorogation case (which had Unionists astounded as the UKSC wouldn't override Scots law as she is spoke in Parliament Square - remember).

    The law does need to be checked and tested, but the issue always was that the law itself was incompatible with the mandates conferred on the Scottish Pmt. Which will put the ball in the Westminster court sooner or later.
    The MSPs *can’t* get a mandate that is ultra vires. It simply isn’t a mandate.

    It’s like a candidate for PCC in Yorkshire making a declaration of war on Germany the centrepiece of his manifesto. Even if he’s elected it doesn’t mean he has a mandate to declare war on Germany
    That's right, if you are relying solely on a legal technicality, but it expresses what is wanted - a change in the law, and that is in the political realm [edit]. And I'm off to finish what I am doing as we are now at the same old logjam.
    Around 50% want a further referendum. Not an overwhelming case.
    More than half the Scottish Pmt. And most of the Scottish representation in HoC. Which is the way things work in a representative democracy. Which is where we were before. So I'll change the subject now and admire the blue sky asnd puffy white clouds outside.
    Not in ultra vires matters

    - Holyrood has no authority in this matter. It’s composition is irrelevant
    - Westminster doesn’t have a nationalist majority
    - The case that the SNP can make is that there is a moral imperative for Westminster to grant a referendum because there is overwhelming demand. But if you add all the votes cast in the latest election is about 50/50.
    Right, but what does "ultra vires" mean in this context? Obviously it's clear that an Act of Holyrood actually declaring Scotland independent of the United Kingdom would not be lawful under the Scotland Act, but is that the case for legislation authorizing a referendum? Historically, local government in the UK has been very constrained as to what it can authorize the expenditure of public money on, with, in general, any expenditure on a matter not specifically authorized by statute being ultra vires and the councillors subject to surcharge to reclaim such monies spent.

    In recent years though, legislation has been passed to allow local authorities to assume a general power of competence in which the formula is reversed: they may spend public money on any matter of benefit to their community unless specifically forbidden to by statute. IIRC, this power was first enacted by Westminster for English authorities, but at least one of the devolved assemblies (NI, I think) has enacted it for its local authorities. So, if a devolved assembly can confer a general power of competence upon its local authorities, then surely it follows that it itself possesses such a power?

    So in that case, is it ultra vires for Scotland to hold a referendum? It could be argued that all the Scottish government would be doing is asking its electorate for authorization to negotiate an extension of the Scottish Parliament's powers with the UK government. As the Scotland Act (and the legislation for Wales and NI too) has been amended several times since 1998 to give Scotland more powers, and presumably the Scottish government must have spent public money on the process of requesting and negotiating such powers, how is the expenditure on an independence referendum any different?
    All matters related to the Union are specifically reserved to Westminster
    Just 6 Tory Westminster seats in Scotland...
    So?
    It would be better if you skipped the pseudo-intellectual justification and simply admitted that you don't want Scotland to be independent so they can't have their referendum. At least it would be more honest.
    If the Scots vote for independence they can be independent. I think it will be a shame but it’s up to them.

    However the majority of people who voted in 2014 chose to stay part of the United Kingdom. They have the right to have that decision respected. After a period of time - I think about 20 years but there is no magic to that - there can be another vote. The exception is if there is evidence that an overwhelming majority of voters have changed their mind. That is not there - the split is about 50/50
    The split in 2013 was about 27:73 IIRC. And your party allowed a referendum then.
    I wasn’t a member of any party then and I am not now either.

    But there hadn’t been a referendum for 35 years. I wasn’t happy that I had never had a chance to vote on EU membership so it’s reasonable people should have a chance to vote occasionally on Scottish membership of the UK
    Regarding the idea of generational referendums. Should it not be that once people not born at the time of the last one are now eligible to vote then the question can be reopened?
    That seems to have a certain internal logic to me.

    That’s part of my logic for thinking every 20 years is about right.
    This is a nonsense idea. Why should there be a vote every 20 years if there's no demand for it?

    What you need is 2 things at the same time. Demand + Rationale.

    We have that now. The rationale is Brexit - to justify a vote within a decade of the last one.

    And the demand is the democratic mandate from the Scottish election. Seats, just as for Westminster.

    This really is it.

    Against this is just one thing - Westminster's legal right to refuse it.

    You're spinning like a top to avoid accepting what cannot be disputed.
    You just don’t get it.

    MSPs are elected to represent the voters of Scotland for a certain remit.

    Not anything else.

    The referendum is outside that remit.

    So all they can do is advocate for Westminster to authorise a referendum

    The strongest argument would be “there is overwhelming demand from the voters”. Except there isn’t.

    It’s not particularly complicated.
    For someone who accepts that ‘it’s not up to me’, you don’t half go on and on about it as if it is up to you.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766

    Mortimer said:


    I agree.

    Not sure if anyone here has noticed, but society has basically returned to normality. The govt are about a month behind the curve. Everyone I know has been hugging for ages, going for dinners, having boozy evenings etc since late March.

    And case numbers are tiny, hospitalisations smaller still.

    We've noticed before that this varies a lot with social circles. None of that has been true for anyone I know, including colleagues at work in their 20s and 30s. They are now starting to go to outdoor pub gardens. They're still extremely wary of any physical contact at all and I know people who've been vaccinated twice who remain extremely cautious - more than I am at this point.

    I'm not doubting that you're right about your circle. Maybe it's an urban thing? The people I know are all nearly in small towns and villages.
    Same here with me and my circle(s). Which skews older, so most of us have been fully vaxxed for well over a month. Before that VERY cautious. Afterward, going out & hanging out more, but hardly what you'd call wild or even (our dull) normal.

    So had breakfast yesterday at a diner. But putting off body-surfing at raves for at least another year!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743
    Chillax on the Indian variant. From my tame evolutionary virologist:

    "Another intriguing tidbit: B.1.617.2 *lacks* E484Q, which was the substitution in B.1.617.1 that had everyone initially worried about immune escape.

    "Fascinating that it may be outgrowing 617.1, coupled with the fact that B.1.1.7+E484K lineages have not done as well as one might have projected.

    "Fitness tradeoffs at spike position 484?"
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886
    India looking like it has peaked out (restricted testing notwithstanding):

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

    That wouldn't be happening if the Indian variant really was capable of infecting half of the UK's non-vaccinated within a few weeks.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 608
    Covid's ability to keep evolving more rapidly spreading variants is quite impressive (much more so than its ability, so far, to escape immunity). Like some kind of Moore's law for viruses. Surely it has to slow down and take a breather soon.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743

    Mortimer said:


    I agree.

    Not sure if anyone here has noticed, but society has basically returned to normality. The govt are about a month behind the curve. Everyone I know has been hugging for ages, going for dinners, having boozy evenings etc since late March.

    And case numbers are tiny, hospitalisations smaller still.

    We've noticed before that this varies a lot with social circles. None of that has been true for anyone I know, including colleagues at work in their 20s and 30s. They are now starting to go to outdoor pub gardens. They're still extremely wary of any physical contact at all and I know people who've been vaccinated twice who remain extremely cautious - more than I am at this point.

    I'm not doubting that you're right about your circle. Maybe it's an urban thing? The people I know are all nearly in small towns and villages.
    Same here with me and my circle(s). Which skews older, so most of us have been fully vaxxed for well over a month. Before that VERY cautious. Afterward, going out & hanging out more, but hardly what you'd call wild or even (our dull) normal.

    So had breakfast yesterday at a diner. But putting off body-surfing at raves for at least another year!
    Hung out inside at a Starbucks for the first time since the 2nd wave.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Back to European weather, the ECMWF model (by some way the most accurate at medium range) brings frost back to much of Northern Europe by the 24th.

    www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_2.png
    https://meteologix.com/bo/model-charts/euro/france/min-temperature-6h/20210524-0600z.html

    (actual ground temperatures will be lower).

    Most vineyards in France, Germany, much of North Italy and Spain have already lost their 2021 crop. This will finish off a few more. Look at the Mosel, or Chablis.

    Any seasonal effect on COVID is going to be heavily mitigated by this unseasonable May weather shoving everyone back indoors.

    Yes, I'm trying to explain this to the PB weather virgins. We are looking at potentially historic cold, on top of already quite notable cold
    South Sandwich Islands - currently 4C/40F, 96% humidity, light rain showers, wind 0 mph

    Outlook for first of next week sunnier (or less cloudy) but bit cooler. Not too bad - provided you bring along your own sandwich.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,967

    Charles said:

    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rpjs said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    There's a widespread expectation among Westminster-based journalists and foreign correspondents reporting from London that a huge constitutional bust up between Sturgeon and Johnson is inevitable. But it's not clear the British government has to do anything 1/9
    ....

    In either event, the constitutional clash between London and Edinburgh doesn't happen. The 2nd referendum is stopped by Scots in Scottish courts by Scottish judges, with the Johnson government looking on. Not quite the SNP playbook. 9/9


    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1393201453863419909?s=20

    Very plausable
    Doesn't surprise me, esp after the prorogation case (which had Unionists astounded as the UKSC wouldn't override Scots law as she is spoke in Parliament Square - remember).

    The law does need to be checked and tested, but the issue always was that the law itself was incompatible with the mandates conferred on the Scottish Pmt. Which will put the ball in the Westminster court sooner or later.
    The MSPs *can’t* get a mandate that is ultra vires. It simply isn’t a mandate.

    It’s like a candidate for PCC in Yorkshire making a declaration of war on Germany the centrepiece of his manifesto. Even if he’s elected it doesn’t mean he has a mandate to declare war on Germany
    That's right, if you are relying solely on a legal technicality, but it expresses what is wanted - a change in the law, and that is in the political realm [edit]. And I'm off to finish what I am doing as we are now at the same old logjam.
    Around 50% want a further referendum. Not an overwhelming case.
    More than half the Scottish Pmt. And most of the Scottish representation in HoC. Which is the way things work in a representative democracy. Which is where we were before. So I'll change the subject now and admire the blue sky asnd puffy white clouds outside.
    Not in ultra vires matters

    - Holyrood has no authority in this matter. It’s composition is irrelevant
    - Westminster doesn’t have a nationalist majority
    - The case that the SNP can make is that there is a moral imperative for Westminster to grant a referendum because there is overwhelming demand. But if you add all the votes cast in the latest election is about 50/50.
    Right, but what does "ultra vires" mean in this context? Obviously it's clear that an Act of Holyrood actually declaring Scotland independent of the United Kingdom would not be lawful under the Scotland Act, but is that the case for legislation authorizing a referendum? Historically, local government in the UK has been very constrained as to what it can authorize the expenditure of public money on, with, in general, any expenditure on a matter not specifically authorized by statute being ultra vires and the councillors subject to surcharge to reclaim such monies spent.

    In recent years though, legislation has been passed to allow local authorities to assume a general power of competence in which the formula is reversed: they may spend public money on any matter of benefit to their community unless specifically forbidden to by statute. IIRC, this power was first enacted by Westminster for English authorities, but at least one of the devolved assemblies (NI, I think) has enacted it for its local authorities. So, if a devolved assembly can confer a general power of competence upon its local authorities, then surely it follows that it itself possesses such a power?

    So in that case, is it ultra vires for Scotland to hold a referendum? It could be argued that all the Scottish government would be doing is asking its electorate for authorization to negotiate an extension of the Scottish Parliament's powers with the UK government. As the Scotland Act (and the legislation for Wales and NI too) has been amended several times since 1998 to give Scotland more powers, and presumably the Scottish government must have spent public money on the process of requesting and negotiating such powers, how is the expenditure on an independence referendum any different?
    All matters related to the Union are specifically reserved to Westminster
    Just 6 Tory Westminster seats in Scotland...
    So?
    It would be better if you skipped the pseudo-intellectual justification and simply admitted that you don't want Scotland to be independent so they can't have their referendum. At least it would be more honest.
    If the Scots vote for independence they can be independent. I think it will be a shame but it’s up to them.

    However the majority of people who voted in 2014 chose to stay part of the United Kingdom. They have the right to have that decision respected. After a period of time - I think about 20 years but there is no magic to that - there can be another vote. The exception is if there is evidence that an overwhelming majority of voters have changed their mind. That is not there - the split is about 50/50
    The split in 2013 was about 27:73 IIRC. And your party allowed a referendum then.
    I wasn’t a member of any party then and I am not now either.

    But there hadn’t been a referendum for 35 years. I wasn’t happy that I had never had a chance to vote on EU membership so it’s reasonable people should have a chance to vote occasionally on Scottish membership of the UK
    Regarding the idea of generational referendums. Should it not be that once people not born at the time of the last one are now eligible to vote then the question can be reopened?
    That seems to have a certain internal logic to me.

    That’s part of my logic for thinking every 20 years is about right.
    This is a nonsense idea. Why should there be a vote every 20 years if there's no demand for it?

    What you need is 2 things at the same time. Demand + Rationale.

    We have that now. The rationale is Brexit - to justify a vote within a decade of the last one.

    And the demand is the democratic mandate from the Scottish election. Seats, just as for Westminster.

    This really is it.

    Against this is just one thing - Westminster's legal right to refuse it.

    You're spinning like a top to avoid accepting what cannot be disputed.
    You just don’t get it.

    MSPs are elected to represent the voters of Scotland for a certain remit.

    Not anything else.

    The referendum is outside that remit.

    So all they can do is advocate for Westminster to authorise a referendum

    The strongest argument would be “there is overwhelming demand from the voters”. Except there isn’t.

    It’s not particularly complicated.
    For someone who accepts that ‘it’s not up to me’, you don’t half go on and on about it as if it is up to you.
    I spent 5 years studying constitutions and government. It’s an occupational hazard to be interested in constitutions and government.

    But if it goes to a properly authorised vote it’s not up to me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886
    TimS said:

    Covid's ability to keep evolving more rapidly spreading variants is quite impressive (much more so than its ability, so far, to escape immunity). Like some kind of Moore's law for viruses. Surely it has to slow down and take a breather soon.

    The clever Darwinian evolution would be into a milder form which would then be tolerated as a mild inconvenience.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.

    50% on Kent would still put R0 at around 5.7. So we're not yet at herd immunity levels for that kind of R0
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    TimT said:

    Mortimer said:


    I agree.

    Not sure if anyone here has noticed, but society has basically returned to normality. The govt are about a month behind the curve. Everyone I know has been hugging for ages, going for dinners, having boozy evenings etc since late March.

    And case numbers are tiny, hospitalisations smaller still.

    We've noticed before that this varies a lot with social circles. None of that has been true for anyone I know, including colleagues at work in their 20s and 30s. They are now starting to go to outdoor pub gardens. They're still extremely wary of any physical contact at all and I know people who've been vaccinated twice who remain extremely cautious - more than I am at this point.

    I'm not doubting that you're right about your circle. Maybe it's an urban thing? The people I know are all nearly in small towns and villages.
    Same here with me and my circle(s). Which skews older, so most of us have been fully vaxxed for well over a month. Before that VERY cautious. Afterward, going out & hanging out more, but hardly what you'd call wild or even (our dull) normal.

    So had breakfast yesterday at a diner. But putting off body-surfing at raves for at least another year!
    Hung out inside at a Starbucks for the first time since the 2nd wave.
    Yeah, you are a wild and crazy dude alright. Did you wear your leather jacket?

    BTW, yours truly hasn't been in a Starbucks in Seattle for years; nothing to do with COVID, just too declasse in these parts!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,649

    TimS said:

    Covid's ability to keep evolving more rapidly spreading variants is quite impressive (much more so than its ability, so far, to escape immunity). Like some kind of Moore's law for viruses. Surely it has to slow down and take a breather soon.

    The clever Darwinian evolution would be into a milder form which would then be tolerated as a mild inconvenience.
    Like a cold? Yes, indeed. Just like a cold.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743

    TimT said:

    Mortimer said:


    I agree.

    Not sure if anyone here has noticed, but society has basically returned to normality. The govt are about a month behind the curve. Everyone I know has been hugging for ages, going for dinners, having boozy evenings etc since late March.

    And case numbers are tiny, hospitalisations smaller still.

    We've noticed before that this varies a lot with social circles. None of that has been true for anyone I know, including colleagues at work in their 20s and 30s. They are now starting to go to outdoor pub gardens. They're still extremely wary of any physical contact at all and I know people who've been vaccinated twice who remain extremely cautious - more than I am at this point.

    I'm not doubting that you're right about your circle. Maybe it's an urban thing? The people I know are all nearly in small towns and villages.
    Same here with me and my circle(s). Which skews older, so most of us have been fully vaxxed for well over a month. Before that VERY cautious. Afterward, going out & hanging out more, but hardly what you'd call wild or even (our dull) normal.

    So had breakfast yesterday at a diner. But putting off body-surfing at raves for at least another year!
    Hung out inside at a Starbucks for the first time since the 2nd wave.
    Yeah, you are a wild and crazy dude alright. Did you wear your leather jacket?

    BTW, yours truly hasn't been in a Starbucks in Seattle for years; nothing to do with COVID, just too declasse in these parts!
    The nearest non-Starbucks coffee shop is about 15 miles away. Given this one is very nice and never crowded, and only 2 miles away, I go there. But the non-starbucks coffee shops in Frederick are very nice.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    But its not going to.

    Now stop looking for doomsday scenarios to 'give you the horn' and do something constructive.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    True enough IF that happens.

    Definitely reason to tap the brakes. But not yet (at this stage) to stand on them?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    TimT said:

    Chillax on the Indian variant. From my tame evolutionary virologist:

    "Another intriguing tidbit: B.1.617.2 *lacks* E484Q, which was the substitution in B.1.617.1 that had everyone initially worried about immune escape.

    "Fascinating that it may be outgrowing 617.1, coupled with the fact that B.1.1.7+E484K lineages have not done as well as one might have projected.

    "Fitness tradeoffs at spike position 484?"

    So we're in better shape than Steve McQueen was fighting the Blob?

    The Blob (1958)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OICbxwdm2fo
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,320
    Cookie said:

    Maffew said:

    alex_ said:

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
    I'm not particularly worried that it will happen, but if it does I'll probably be out there with the hardcore anti-lockdown nutters protesting. Enough is enough.
    Yes, I agree. If it turns out that even with vaccinations we can't open up then we'll never open up. Time to give up and just let it wash over us.
    Agreed. I’ve been in favour of lockdowns. But no more. We are at serious risk of lockdowns becoming a first-resort response to any public order or public health issue.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,945
    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Boomers vs. Zoomers

    18-24s:
    Labour: 52%
    Conservatives: 6%

    65 yrs+:
    Labour: 17%
    Conservative: 64%

    Today's YouGov"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1393230163245154306
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    But its not going to.

    Now stop looking for doomsday scenarios to 'give you the horn' and do something constructive.
    What was the rule the late, great SeanT gave us (before he departed this parish) vis a vis Coronavirus?

    "Imagine your reasonable worst case scenario, because that is what will usually happen"

    I miss him. Such a solid source of calm stoicism. Cool wisdom and measured advice. Much needed now
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.

    50% on Kent would still put R0 at around 5.7. So we're not yet at herd immunity levels for that kind of R0
    Though the infection rates in India or Bolton don't suggest that it is so high to my untrained eye:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    edited May 14
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Mortimer said:


    I agree.

    Not sure if anyone here has noticed, but society has basically returned to normality. The govt are about a month behind the curve. Everyone I know has been hugging for ages, going for dinners, having boozy evenings etc since late March.

    And case numbers are tiny, hospitalisations smaller still.

    We've noticed before that this varies a lot with social circles. None of that has been true for anyone I know, including colleagues at work in their 20s and 30s. They are now starting to go to outdoor pub gardens. They're still extremely wary of any physical contact at all and I know people who've been vaccinated twice who remain extremely cautious - more than I am at this point.

    I'm not doubting that you're right about your circle. Maybe it's an urban thing? The people I know are all nearly in small towns and villages.
    Same here with me and my circle(s). Which skews older, so most of us have been fully vaxxed for well over a month. Before that VERY cautious. Afterward, going out & hanging out more, but hardly what you'd call wild or even (our dull) normal.

    So had breakfast yesterday at a diner. But putting off body-surfing at raves for at least another year!
    Hung out inside at a Starbucks for the first time since the 2nd wave.
    Yeah, you are a wild and crazy dude alright. Did you wear your leather jacket?

    BTW, yours truly hasn't been in a Starbucks in Seattle for years; nothing to do with COVID, just too declasse in these parts!
    The nearest non-Starbucks coffee shop is about 15 miles away. Given this one is very nice and never crowded, and only 2 miles away, I go there. But the non-starbucks coffee shops in Frederick are very nice.
    Do any have a plaque commemorating where Barbara Fritchie used to sit while enjoying her morning latte?

    EDIT - best Starbucks are definitely outside Seattle metro area. Here it's like going to McDonalds.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,967
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    But its not going to.

    Now stop looking for doomsday scenarios to 'give you the horn' and do something constructive.
    What was the rule the late, great SeanT gave us (before he departed this parish) vis a vis Coronavirus?

    "Imagine your reasonable worst case scenario, because that is what will usually happen"

    I miss him. Such a solid source of calm stoicism. Cool wisdom and measured advice. Much needed now
    Wasn’t that 2m British citizens dead?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743

    TimT said:

    Chillax on the Indian variant. From my tame evolutionary virologist:

    "Another intriguing tidbit: B.1.617.2 *lacks* E484Q, which was the substitution in B.1.617.1 that had everyone initially worried about immune escape.

    "Fascinating that it may be outgrowing 617.1, coupled with the fact that B.1.1.7+E484K lineages have not done as well as one might have projected.

    "Fitness tradeoffs at spike position 484?"

    So we're in better shape than Steve McQueen was fighting the Blob?

    The Blob (1958)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OICbxwdm2fo
    It gets to the point I have been making time and time again - changes to the spike protein that might increase the prospects of vaccine escape are likely to reduce its transmissibility which means that, in competition with more transmissible strains, they lose out.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    But its not going to.

    Now stop looking for doomsday scenarios to 'give you the horn' and do something constructive.
    What was the rule the late, great SeanT gave us (before he departed this parish) vis a vis Coronavirus?

    "Imagine your reasonable worst case scenario, because that is what will usually happen"

    I miss him. Such a solid source of calm stoicism. Cool wisdom and measured advice. Much needed now
    And he was wrong.

    I remember a graph that was often posted in early 202 which showed everyone on the planet infected by autumn 2020.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    But its not going to.

    Now stop looking for doomsday scenarios to 'give you the horn' and do something constructive.
    What was the rule the late, great SeanT gave us (before he departed this parish) vis a vis Coronavirus?

    "Imagine your reasonable worst case scenario, because that is what will usually happen"

    I miss him. Such a solid source of calm stoicism. Cool wisdom and measured advice. Much needed now
    Too funny.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.

    50% on Kent would still put R0 at around 5.7. So we're not yet at herd immunity levels for that kind of R0
    Though the infection rates in India or Bolton don't suggest that it is so high to my untrained eye:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
    I would tend to agree. Has anyone reverse engineered the Indian infection graph? Assuming that the rate of underreporting has been consistent throughout, wouldn't that give us a reasonable estimate of the R for the Indian variant?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,886
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Chillax on the Indian variant. From my tame evolutionary virologist:

    "Another intriguing tidbit: B.1.617.2 *lacks* E484Q, which was the substitution in B.1.617.1 that had everyone initially worried about immune escape.

    "Fascinating that it may be outgrowing 617.1, coupled with the fact that B.1.1.7+E484K lineages have not done as well as one might have projected.

    "Fitness tradeoffs at spike position 484?"

    So we're in better shape than Steve McQueen was fighting the Blob?

    The Blob (1958)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OICbxwdm2fo
    It gets to the point I have been making time and time again - changes to the spike protein that might increase the prospects of vaccine escape are likely to reduce its transmissibility which means that, in competition with more transmissible strains, they lose out.
    Thanks.

    You've clearly summed up a key point.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    But its not going to.

    Now stop looking for doomsday scenarios to 'give you the horn' and do something constructive.
    What was the rule the late, great SeanT gave us (before he departed this parish) vis a vis Coronavirus?

    "Imagine your reasonable worst case scenario, because that is what will usually happen"

    I miss him. Such a solid source of calm stoicism. Cool wisdom and measured advice. Much needed now
    Wasn’t that 2m British citizens dead?
    No, I distinctly remember this. Even as a lurker I followed his tremendous commentary with great assiduity.

    That was his EXTREME worst case scenario - and with zero mitigation. He was teasing us. Reasonable worst case scenario - with no mitigation - was 500,000, a la Ferguson.

  • RattersRatters Posts: 198
    Some people on here are so excitable they should perhaps release excess energy writing thrillers...

    Take a deep breath:

    1) To the best of our knowledge, the Indian variant is more transmissible variant, but is not vaccine resistant
    2) >90% of vulnerable (groups 1-9, so over 50s and pre-existing conditions) people have been vaccinated. Most of tat group have had second doses, with the remainder expected in the next few weeks.
    3) The rest of the adult population will have had their first dose within 2 months
    4) Cases are not yet rising meaningfully in aggregate; hospitalisations continue to fall
    5) According to the ONS, weekly deaths have been below their 5-year average for the 8 weeks to 30 April, so most likely 10 weeks now

    I just can't see a scenario where cases rise at an escape velocity to be able to result in a meaningful increase in deaths at an aggregate level - at least not beyond what we see in a normal flu season, and most likely much below. We simply can't keep cowering at Covid like it is going to kill us all - not now we've had a successful vaccination programme. Life entails risks that can't be avoided fully, and putting people's lives on hold any longer to deal with the unproven risk of variants is simply not equitable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,420
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Boomers vs. Zoomers

    18-24s:
    Labour: 52%
    Conservatives: 6%

    65 yrs+:
    Labour: 17%
    Conservative: 64%

    Today's YouGov"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1393230163245154306

    Or the don't voters vs the voters...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    But its not going to.

    Now stop looking for doomsday scenarios to 'give you the horn' and do something constructive.
    What was the rule the late, great SeanT gave us (before he departed this parish) vis a vis Coronavirus?

    "Imagine your reasonable worst case scenario, because that is what will usually happen"

    I miss him. Such a solid source of calm stoicism. Cool wisdom and measured advice. Much needed now
    That wanker? Bit of a degenerate show-off, wasn't he? Fellow had no bottom! Or was it too much?

    Reminds me of a Brendan Behan story.

    BB was entering England on route from Ireland to France (or maybe the other way around). Which he habitually did, besides having been banned for entry due to IRA activity (which resulted in term at Borstal) in his misspent youth.

    "Have you ever heard of Brendan Behan?" asked the suspicious official?

    "Behan? Yesss, come to think of it, I think I have heard of him. Bit of a loudmouth and a lout, is that who you mean?"

    "Heard of him - you ARE him!"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,967
    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    But its not going to.

    Now stop looking for doomsday scenarios to 'give you the horn' and do something constructive.
    What was the rule the late, great SeanT gave us (before he departed this parish) vis a vis Coronavirus?

    "Imagine your reasonable worst case scenario, because that is what will usually happen"

    I miss him. Such a solid source of calm stoicism. Cool wisdom and measured advice. Much needed now
    Wasn’t that 2m British citizens dead?
    No, I distinctly remember this. Even as a lurker I followed his tremendous commentary with great assiduity.

    That was his EXTREME worst case scenario - and with zero mitigation. He was teasing us. Reasonable worst case scenario - with no mitigation - was 500,000, a la Ferguson.

    Cool. So only out by ~4x
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.
    They don't say that. The SAGE sub-com says "more than 50%" but they are waiting for further data to be really sure.

    This is a tad ominous
    It might be for the non-vaxxed.

    For the non religious nutters / conspiracy obsessed it isn't.
    After 14 months of a pandemic, you still don't understand how pandemics work. Impressive
    Let me explain:

    The anti-vaxxers are at far more risk than the vaccinated.
    Christ

    We are all at risk if the NHS crashes. We share it with the refuseniks
    But its not going to.

    Now stop looking for doomsday scenarios to 'give you the horn' and do something constructive.
    What was the rule the late, great SeanT gave us (before he departed this parish) vis a vis Coronavirus?

    "Imagine your reasonable worst case scenario, because that is what will usually happen"

    I miss him. Such a solid source of calm stoicism. Cool wisdom and measured advice. Much needed now
    Wasn’t that 2m British citizens dead?
    No, I distinctly remember this. Even as a lurker I followed his tremendous commentary with great assiduity.

    That was his EXTREME worst case scenario - and with zero mitigation. He was teasing us. Reasonable worst case scenario - with no mitigation - was 500,000, a la Ferguson.

    Cool. So only out by ~4x
    With no mitigation. No lockdown.

    Anyway let him come on here and defend himself. I'm bored of doing the batting for that drunken fool. He was a liability and a maniac
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,649
    edited May 14
    TIL.
    Gil Scott-Heron's Dad played for Celtic.
    That may be common knowledge to some, indeed many.
    However, it has dramatically shifted the axis of my understanding of the Universe.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,420
    edited May 14
    Sleaze inquiry into Boris's £15,000 Mustique holiday with Carrie finds him guilty of failing to reveal how freebie villa break was financed and it was worth double what he declared - but PM REFUSES to accept ruling

    Her damning verdict was delivered privately to Mr Johnson months ago.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580509/Inquiry-Boris-Johnsons-Mustique-holiday-says-failed-say-financed.html
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,351
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    SAGE sub committee is really grim on the India variant

    "The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

    "There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations."

    Jeez

    https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=20


    I think the phrase used earlier was 'up to 50%'.

    A very different thing.

    50% on Kent would still put R0 at around 5.7. So we're not yet at herd immunity levels for that kind of R0
    Though the infection rates in India or Bolton don't suggest that it is so high to my untrained eye:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
    I would tend to agree. Has anyone reverse engineered the Indian infection graph? Assuming that the rate of underreporting has been consistent throughout, wouldn't that give us a reasonable estimate of the R for the Indian variant?
    It's very unlikely that the rate of underreporting is consistent. You'd expect that underreporting would increase as infection levels increase.

    The Indian reported case statistics now are probably little more useful than the UK's were in April 2020.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,320
    edited May 14
    I’m willing to lay @Leon a sportman’s wager on both the British weather and the Indian variant.

    I say 1) it doesn’t snow in London until the winter. 2) the Indian variant is no more deadly in the UK than any other strain (within normal MOE).

    @Leon?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,308
    edited May 14
    dixiedean said:

    TIL.
    Gil Scott-Heron's Dad played for Celtic.
    That may be common knowledge to some, indeed many.
    However, it has dramatically shifted the axis of my understanding of the Universe.

    He did indeed.
    Cruel devotees of Scottish football have observed that Celtic’s record breaking 10 in a row league title will not be televised.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    edited May 14
    Another Brendan Behan versus the Brits story:

    Behan was in Paris, taking part in a bigtime drama festival, invited because of the international success of one of his plays.

    He flies from Dublin to Paris, making sure to stay well-hydrated during the flight. Deplaning at Orly Airport (back in the day), he breezes though customs, and walks out to meet he limousine his hosts have provided.

    And discovers that it sports a Union Jack on the hood.

    "What the hell is this bloody fecking rag doing on my car!" he sputters.

    "But, but, M'sieur Be-han," exclaims a distraught functionary, "didn't you know? - your play is the official British entry for our festival!"

    "Well, in that case," replies Behan, not missing a beat while climbing into the back seat, "Rule Britannia!"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,649

    dixiedean said:

    TIL.
    Gil Scott-Heron's Dad played for Celtic.
    That may be common knowledge to some, indeed many.
    However, it has dramatically shifted the axis of my understanding of the Universe.

    He did indeed.
    Cruel devotees of Scottish football have observed that Celtic’s record breaking 10 in a row league title will not be televised.
    Bravo Sir!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,832
    Who’s SesnT? I’ve never heard of him. Probably a LibDem.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190

    I’m willing to lay @Leon a sportman’s wager on both the British weather and the Indian variant.

    I say 1) it doesn’t snow in London until the winter. 2) the Indian variant is no more deadly in the UK than any other strain (within normal MOE).

    @Leon?

    Er, no dice.

    We're in mid May. The chances of it snowing in LONDON - even in a bitterly cold May, which this might be - are tiny, before winter

    And it's not very reassuring to think the Indian variant may kill no more than Kentish Covid. Another 50,000? Doddle

    A poorly framed bet. Sorry
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,190
    And with that, goodnight PB. Goodnight
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    Leon said:

    I’m willing to lay @Leon a sportman’s wager on both the British weather and the Indian variant.

    I say 1) it doesn’t snow in London until the winter. 2) the Indian variant is no more deadly in the UK than any other strain (within normal MOE).

    @Leon?

    Er, no dice.

    We're in mid May. The chances of it snowing in LONDON - even in a bitterly cold May, which this might be - are tiny, before winter

    And it's not very reassuring to think the Indian variant may kill no more than Kentish Covid. Another 50,000? Doddle

    A poorly framed bet. Sorry
    Hows about on which will be colder on the Queen's (official) birthday? London OR South Sandwich Islands?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    Jonathan said:

    Who’s SesnT? I’ve never heard of him. Probably a LibDem.

    IIRC SeanT was Independent Loony of the (Groucho) Marxist wing, with Whig tendencies but Tory tastes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,664
    @Leon

    Interestingly, the Indian variant is here in the US too.

    Do you know how much panicking there is on this side of the pond?

    None. Zero. Nada.

    Everything is opening up. Spring is here. It's joyous.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,320
    Leon said:

    I’m willing to lay @Leon a sportman’s wager on both the British weather and the Indian variant.

    I say 1) it doesn’t snow in London until the winter. 2) the Indian variant is no more deadly in the UK than any other strain (within normal MOE).

    @Leon?

    Er, no dice.

    We're in mid May. The chances of it snowing in LONDON - even in a bitterly cold May, which this might be - are tiny, before winter

    And it's not very reassuring to think the Indian variant may kill no more than Kentish Covid. Another 50,000? Doddle

    A poorly framed bet. Sorry
    Bet declined. Noted.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,420
    rcs1000 said:

    @Leon

    Interestingly, the Indian variant is here in the US too.

    Do you know how much panicking there is on this side of the pond?

    None. Zero. Nada.

    Everything is opening up. Spring is here. It's joyous.

    I would be a bit worried in those states that appear to think vaccinations is something every other state does.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    Cautionary tale re: The Blob.

    At the end of the movie, the Blob is rendered harmless, after scientists (or somebody, maybe Steve's girlfriend?) discovers that extreme frigidity stops it cold (maybe that's how she did it). The solution: collect the well-chilled Blob and drop It on the Arctic ice cap.

    Mission accomplished, say the scientists.

    "Yeah," agrees Steve, "as long as the Arctic stays cold!" Ha! Ha! Ha!

    But six decades later, who's laughing now? The Blob!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,832
    edited May 14
    rcs1000 said:

    @Leon

    Interestingly, the Indian variant is here in the US too.

    Do you know how much panicking there is on this side of the pond?

    None. Zero. Nada.

    Everything is opening up. Spring is here. It's joyous.

    You got rid of your other virus last November, we’re stuck with ours it seems. Makes a difference.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,036
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Boomers vs. Zoomers

    18-24s:
    Labour: 52%
    Conservatives: 6%

    65 yrs+:
    Labour: 17%
    Conservative: 64%

    Today's YouGov"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1393230163245154306

    Hope vs experience.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,036
    IanB2 said:

    Germany plans to classify Britain as a coronavirus risk region due to the emergence of the highly infectious variant first detected in India, government sources said on Friday.

    What's the German for pointless?

    https://www.thelocal.de/20210514/indian-virus-variant-steadily-increasing-in-germany/

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,664

    rcs1000 said:

    @Leon

    Interestingly, the Indian variant is here in the US too.

    Do you know how much panicking there is on this side of the pond?

    None. Zero. Nada.

    Everything is opening up. Spring is here. It's joyous.

    I would be a bit worried in those states that appear to think vaccinations is something every other state does.
    Yes, that's a fair point.

    Re the UK, it the key point (to me) is that the Indian variant does not seem to manage to evade vaccines in any meaningful way. As we're going to be doing increasing numbers of first vaccinations again, and as they are Pfizer and Moderna which confer protection pretty damn quickly, this is going to be a very short term problem.

    So while the UK is right to be cautious about opening up its borders, we're getting increasingly close to the point where everybody can just relax.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,308
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Leon

    Interestingly, the Indian variant is here in the US too.

    Do you know how much panicking there is on this side of the pond?

    None. Zero. Nada.

    Everything is opening up. Spring is here. It's joyous.

    I would be a bit worried in those states that appear to think vaccinations is something every other state does.
    Yes, that's a fair point.

    Re the UK, it the key point (to me) is that the Indian variant does not seem to manage to evade vaccines in any meaningful way. As we're going to be doing increasing numbers of first vaccinations again, and as they are Pfizer and Moderna which confer protection pretty damn quickly, this is going to be a very short term problem.

    So while the UK is right to be cautious about opening up its borders, we're getting increasingly close to the point where everybody can just relax.
    I know it's a tabloid headline but..

    https://twitter.com/_Mozza_/status/1393328580147429376?s=20
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766

    Sleaze inquiry into Boris's £15,000 Mustique holiday with Carrie finds him guilty of failing to reveal how freebie villa break was financed and it was worth double what he declared - but PM REFUSES to accept ruling

    Her damning verdict was delivered privately to Mr Johnson months ago.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580509/Inquiry-Boris-Johnsons-Mustique-holiday-says-failed-say-financed.html

    Thought for a minute the PM was wearing a very funky pair of ugg boots in that pix. He's not.

    But those shorts, with shirt tucked in, are a clear & present danger to anyone unfortunate enough to gaze upon them.

    Seems to me that Carrie herself MUST have a lot to answer fo here.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743

    Sleaze inquiry into Boris's £15,000 Mustique holiday with Carrie finds him guilty of failing to reveal how freebie villa break was financed and it was worth double what he declared - but PM REFUSES to accept ruling

    Her damning verdict was delivered privately to Mr Johnson months ago.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580509/Inquiry-Boris-Johnsons-Mustique-holiday-says-failed-say-financed.html

    Thought for a minute the PM was wearing a very funky pair of ugg boots in that pix. He's not.

    But those shorts, with shirt tucked in, are a clear & present danger to anyone unfortunate enough to gaze upon them.

    Seems to me that Carrie herself MUST have a lot to answer fo here.
    Who wears a dress shirt with that kind of shorts while on holiday in the Caribbean?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,766
    edited May 14
    TimT said:

    Sleaze inquiry into Boris's £15,000 Mustique holiday with Carrie finds him guilty of failing to reveal how freebie villa break was financed and it was worth double what he declared - but PM REFUSES to accept ruling

    Her damning verdict was delivered privately to Mr Johnson months ago.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580509/Inquiry-Boris-Johnsons-Mustique-holiday-says-failed-say-financed.html

    Thought for a minute the PM was wearing a very funky pair of ugg boots in that pix. He's not.

    But those shorts, with shirt tucked in, are a clear & present danger to anyone unfortunate enough to gaze upon them.

    Seems to me that Carrie herself MUST have a lot to answer fo here.
    Who wears a dress shirt with that kind of shorts while on holiday in the Caribbean?
    Old (or is it Odd) Etonians?

    EDIT - and Nixon was famously photographed walking along the beach at San Clemente in wingtips.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,664
    edited May 14

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Leon

    Interestingly, the Indian variant is here in the US too.

    Do you know how much panicking there is on this side of the pond?

    None. Zero. Nada.

    Everything is opening up. Spring is here. It's joyous.

    I would be a bit worried in those states that appear to think vaccinations is something every other state does.
    Yes, that's a fair point.

    Re the UK, it the key point (to me) is that the Indian variant does not seem to manage to evade vaccines in any meaningful way. As we're going to be doing increasing numbers of first vaccinations again, and as they are Pfizer and Moderna which confer protection pretty damn quickly, this is going to be a very short term problem.

    So while the UK is right to be cautious about opening up its borders, we're getting increasingly close to the point where everybody can just relax.
    I know it's a tabloid headline but..

    https://twitter.com/_Mozza_/status/1393328580147429376?s=20
    It's a tabloid headline. The CDC just opined yesterday that none of the variants (Saffer, Indian, etc.) had any meaningful effect on efficacy.

    Much more of an issue is that protection with the AZN vaccine takes time to build. (This was why the trial in South Africa was so misleading relative to what we now know.)

    Essentially, your protection from Covid rises from about 20% in week two up to about 90% in week 12*. There will therefore be a lot of people who got their first vaccine shot 4, 5, or 6 weeks ago who are quite a bit protected... but nowhere near fully protected. I suspect some of these guys are the ones in hospital.

    * The same is very much true of the J&J vaccine, but isn't really true of Moderna or Pfizer.
This discussion has been closed.