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One in nine of those younger than 25 on the YouGov panel don’t even know who Tony Blair was – politi

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  • Nigelb said:

    38mm cannon with a muzzle (not exactly) velocity of 6.5km/sec..
    (Test apparatus for a British fusion project.)
    https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/First-Light-Fusion-completes-two-stage-gas-gun-wit

    I am always fascinated by fusion technology. There always seems to be something inescapably Heath Robinson about it.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,782

    Meanwhile, in Gilead:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/14/edwin-poots-elected-dup-leader-to-succeed-arlene-foster

    Poots, 55, is a young Earth creationist from the party’s conservative Christian wing who believes the planet is 6,000 years old, a belief that could impede the party’s effort to court new voters.

    So here’s the thing. He’s mocked because he believes in god and creationism. Well I think everyone who believes in god(s) are idiots. That’s my choice. Why is his belief in his version of the history of the planet any worse than believing any other aspects of religion?
    Which other UK party leaders are Creationists out of interest?
    Was Blair not one?

    MrEd said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tres said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    MrEd said:

    For what it is worth, I also think the "take the knee" thing before football matches is a little bit stale too, to be honest, like @Casino_Royale said. I don't start frothing with rage every time I see it though, like some we know...

    Just because you disagree with something doesn’t mean you are “frothing with rage”. But you seem to jump to that conclusion quite quickly.
    You have failed to explain why you "disagree" with people participating in an anti-racism gesture. Please do, without reference to the BLM organisation, which has nothing to do with it.
    Sky continue to show the BLM logo up during matches, so I don't think it's right to say that it's a gesture that has nothing to do with the organisation.
    What 'logo'?
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcVuKM4XYAQWqPo.jpg
    That doesn't appear to have anything to do with Black Lives Matter, the organisation — https://store.blacklivesmatter.com/store/
    But the point is, it isn't simply an anti-racism message. It's not about kicking out racism directed towards Asians or Jews, for example.
    But that's just wrong. That's the classic "white lives matter" trope. So in response, I will use the classic retort: when you use the phrase "save the whales" you're not insinuating that all other ocean life should get f*cked, are you?

    It's an anti-racism message that's highlighting one form of racism that is particularly topical in the western world. That's not saying other forms of racism aren't as bad. It in turn highlights all forms of racism.

    It really doesn't need this level of analysis. it really shouldn't be divisive at all. Like I said, I think it's completely irrational.
    Fucking hell. You were comparing BLM to the generic kick it out campaign earlier asking if people get upset about that. Well, here's the difference mate.

    And, yes, all lives do matter.

    BLM in the USA makes sense as I think there is a specific issue of anti-black racism. That isn't the case here.

    But hey, you enjoy calling anyone who dares to disagree a racist.

    Good night.
    Try telling that there is no anti-black racism in the UK to Dalian Atkinson's family.
    I didn’t realise that race was part of the prosecution’s case there.

    The point I was making was that Jews and Asians and others are just as likely to be on the receiving end of racism as blacks.
    In years gone by, Irish too - speak to anyone Irish who was around in the 1970s and they faced a hell of a lot of racism.
    Not half. I was lucky. Had 3 Irish grandparents and the one I got the English surname from. So despite the Irish first name and looks I got away with the worst.
    Many of my school mates and their parents didn't.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,797
    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    Although the impact of having only a single vaccination as opposed to being "wholly vaxxed" is as yet undetermined.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,483

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    How many of them are in the proper at risk age cohorts?
    If you mean over 50, where CFR is 0.6%-27%, it's about 3m I think

    Even 40 somethings face some risk. A CFR of 0.2%. Sounds tiny but ten times that will be hospitalised. Only those under 40 will have basically zero risk


    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/

    And of course many of these "vulnerable" will have co-morbidities, making it worse
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,681



    Because this is the internet, and you’re only ever one step away from being called all sorts of names, I will also emphasise that I have no time at all for Hammas. But then the passing of the PLO and a chance for peace was kind of the Israeli’s fault too.

    Hammas? It's written thusly in Arabic: حماس

    Note there is no consonant doubling shaddah over the mim (Arabic 'm').

    Compare and contrast with hummus: حُمُّص

    HAMAS. Which is also an Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and literally means 'zeal'.

    These are basics, people.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    TIMES: Lockdown easing at risk #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393308786119561219/photo/1
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,412
    dixiedean said:

    Meanwhile, in Gilead:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/14/edwin-poots-elected-dup-leader-to-succeed-arlene-foster

    Poots, 55, is a young Earth creationist from the party’s conservative Christian wing who believes the planet is 6,000 years old, a belief that could impede the party’s effort to court new voters.

    So here’s the thing. He’s mocked because he believes in god and creationism. Well I think everyone who believes in god(s) are idiots. That’s my choice. Why is his belief in his version of the history of the planet any worse than believing any other aspects of religion?
    Which other UK party leaders are Creationists out of interest?
    Was Blair not one?

    MrEd said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tres said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    MrEd said:

    For what it is worth, I also think the "take the knee" thing before football matches is a little bit stale too, to be honest, like @Casino_Royale said. I don't start frothing with rage every time I see it though, like some we know...

    Just because you disagree with something doesn’t mean you are “frothing with rage”. But you seem to jump to that conclusion quite quickly.
    You have failed to explain why you "disagree" with people participating in an anti-racism gesture. Please do, without reference to the BLM organisation, which has nothing to do with it.
    Sky continue to show the BLM logo up during matches, so I don't think it's right to say that it's a gesture that has nothing to do with the organisation.
    What 'logo'?
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcVuKM4XYAQWqPo.jpg
    That doesn't appear to have anything to do with Black Lives Matter, the organisation — https://store.blacklivesmatter.com/store/
    But the point is, it isn't simply an anti-racism message. It's not about kicking out racism directed towards Asians or Jews, for example.
    But that's just wrong. That's the classic "white lives matter" trope. So in response, I will use the classic retort: when you use the phrase "save the whales" you're not insinuating that all other ocean life should get f*cked, are you?

    It's an anti-racism message that's highlighting one form of racism that is particularly topical in the western world. That's not saying other forms of racism aren't as bad. It in turn highlights all forms of racism.

    It really doesn't need this level of analysis. it really shouldn't be divisive at all. Like I said, I think it's completely irrational.
    Fucking hell. You were comparing BLM to the generic kick it out campaign earlier asking if people get upset about that. Well, here's the difference mate.

    And, yes, all lives do matter.

    BLM in the USA makes sense as I think there is a specific issue of anti-black racism. That isn't the case here.

    But hey, you enjoy calling anyone who dares to disagree a racist.

    Good night.
    Try telling that there is no anti-black racism in the UK to Dalian Atkinson's family.
    I didn’t realise that race was part of the prosecution’s case there.

    The point I was making was that Jews and Asians and others are just as likely to be on the receiving end of racism as blacks.
    In years gone by, Irish too - speak to anyone Irish who was around in the 1970s and they faced a hell of a lot of racism.
    Not half. I was lucky. Had 3 Irish grandparents and the one I got the English surname from. So despite the Irish first name and looks I got away with the worst.
    Many of my school mates and their parents didn't.
    This was a factor - not the only one for sure - in the radicalization of Michael Collins when he was living and working in London in the year before the Easter Rising. Heightened by the rise of Home Rule & Ulster Crisis, in same way anti-Irishism rose due with the advent & course of The Troubles.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,099
    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,118
    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    For what it is worth, I also think the "take the knee" thing before football matches is a little bit stale too, to be honest, like @Casino_Royale said. I don't start frothing with rage every time I see it though, like some we know...

    Just because you disagree with something doesn’t mean you are “frothing with rage”. But you seem to jump to that conclusion quite quickly.
    You have failed to explain why you "disagree" with people participating in an anti-racism gesture. Please do, without reference to the BLM organisation, which has nothing to do with it.
    Because it means nothing and has become a token symbol for people to virtue signal as opposed to doing something and concrete about helping Black peoples’ lives. Look at the States (and arguably the U.K.). The breakdown of the family structure has probably done far more damage to Black communities than some Enoch Powell type lurking in the background. Yet the biggest “proponents” of black lives don’t touch that issue and nor do they try to stop black on black murders, which is by far the most prevalent cause of murders in the US and the U.K. BLM is only interested when it’s a white person shooting a black person. Funnily enough, they don’t seem to be around to stop black people killing each other.
    Couldn't help yourself.
    BLM don’t. Where have they been in Chicago, Baltimore et al stopping Black on Black crime?

    Anyway Mrs Ed says hi - she is actually black but says she always finds it amusing when some white middle-class right on woke-ist thinks they know the answer.
    Amazingly an campaign group formed to focus on police violence against African Americans focuses on police violence against African Americans.

    Why doesn't it focus on sickle cell anemia research, that's what I want to know!?!!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,146
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Charles said:

    Meanwhile, in Gilead:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/14/edwin-poots-elected-dup-leader-to-succeed-arlene-foster

    Poots, 55, is a young Earth creationist from the party’s conservative Christian wing who believes the planet is 6,000 years old, a belief that could impede the party’s effort to court new voters.

    So here’s the thing. He’s mocked because he believes in god and creationism. Well I think everyone who believes in god(s) are idiots. That’s my choice. Why is his belief in his version of the history of the planet any worse than believing any other aspects of religion?
    I'll bite. Belief in a creator God is not incompatible with a belief in science. The problem with "young earth" creationists is that they are looking at the science and saying "fake news". They are no better than flat earthers.
    See my later post re distressing. As a scientist I cannot find anything to make me religious, but not all scientists think like me. Some reconcile their beliefs, but I cannot.
    Religion is a matter of faith - it explains what science cannot (yet) explain.
    It’s when it tries to dismiss what science can explain that it just looks silly.
    Or dangerous.
    Most modern religious people in cultures like ours (and there are millions from professors of theoretical physics to bin emptiers) broadly think that science deals accurately and impressively with 'how' questions, and religion deals, rather more opaquely and variably with 'why' questions. Neither is good in the other's domain, some people are very deeply engaged in both.

    Some questions are deeply mysterious in both domains: free will, the nature and origin of consciousness, rationality, appearance and reality, why there is something rather than nothing to name five. Philosophy is a sort of umpire of those questions. Science, religion and philosophy are best when a bit of humility is around.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,412
    edited May 14

    Charles said:

    Meanwhile, in Gilead:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/14/edwin-poots-elected-dup-leader-to-succeed-arlene-foster

    Poots, 55, is a young Earth creationist from the party’s conservative Christian wing who believes the planet is 6,000 years old, a belief that could impede the party’s effort to court new voters.

    So here’s the thing. He’s mocked because he believes in god and creationism. Well I think everyone who believes in god(s) are idiots. That’s my choice. Why is his belief in his version of the history of the planet any worse than believing any other aspects of religion?
    I'll bite. Belief in a creator God is not incompatible with a belief in science. The problem with "young earth" creationists is that they are looking at the science and saying "fake news". They are no better than flat earthers.
    See my later post re distressing. As a scientist I cannot find anything to make me religious, but not all scientists think like me. Some reconcile their beliefs, but I cannot.
    Religion is a matter of faith - it explains what science cannot (yet) explain.
    More like mystic mumbo-jumbo if you ask me!
    Science? I share your view!

    EDIT - I mean, first they tell you that the stars and planets revolve around the earth. THEN after centuries, they tell you that earth and the planets revolve around the sun!

    Make up your cotton-pickin' minds!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,042
    edited May 14
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Thought.

    Israel GDP per capita is $43,000

    Palestinian GDP per capita is $3,000


    A ridiculous and grotesque disparity........ and maybe one which Israel could help to fix? Have the Israelis ever thought of being absurdly generous? Pour money into Gaza rather than rockets and bombs. If they could briskly raise the living standards of Palestinians from $3000 to $10,000 GDP capita, a lot of hatred might melt away. Easier said than done, but still maybe worth doing

    I am reminded of Robert McNamara's belated revelation about Vietnam. Basically: "America would have won in Vietnam if we'd dropped refrigerators on the Vietnamese rather than Agent Orange"


    @Leon. Mate.

    You are the one who literally starts wanking over the prospect with war with France over every slight insult.

    Now pretend you are Israeli. Citizens are getting rockets fired at their houses. Do you think there are significant votes to be won in being nice to the people who attack them?

    No matter who's at fault — that is the reality. People vote for security. They don't vote for perceived weakness.

    It's a flaw of democracy, really.
    I don't ACTUALLY want war with France. I don't think

    Do you have a better idea to achieve peace twixt Jews and Arabs?

    At least this is an idea, and one the Israelis have not tried. Is their present tactic, of sometimes killing lots of Palestinians and generally making Palestinian lives miserable, doing any good? Is it working in any way? Is it making Israel more secure? No. It is storing up historic hatred for Israel and - perhaps worse - turning the Isrealis themselves into blatant racists, which cannot work long term. It IS becoming apartheid South Africa

    I wonder if Israel is like some person who grew up poor, and who therefore still acts poor - eating shit food, taking the bus - even when he is now rich, and could get a lovely taxi?

    Israel has always seen itself as the underdog, the little country battling for survival, so it cannot see any other way of dealing with "enemies" other than hitting them as hard as possible. Well now it is wealthy, sophisticated, well educated, and it has nukes and the Iron Dome, it won't be overrun any time soon.

    This is the moment for it to change perceptions. Act the Christian. Be generous. Shower Gaza with hard cash.

    Buy the Peace
    Showering with cash has been the strategy for Gaza for years.

    eg $5bn+ raised at one international conference in 2014.

    One problem is that if eg cement is sent in it miraculously gets turned into bunkers and fortifications.

    It's like stuffing developing world counties' mouths with gold without dealing with governance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,219
    edited May 14
    Dura_Ace said:



    Because this is the internet, and you’re only ever one step away from being called all sorts of names, I will also emphasise that I have no time at all for Hammas. But then the passing of the PLO and a chance for peace was kind of the Israeli’s fault too.

    Hammas? It's written thusly in Arabic: حماس

    Note there is no consonant doubling shaddah over the mim (Arabic 'm').

    Compare and contrast with hummus: حُمُّص

    HAMAS. Which is also an Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and literally means 'zeal'.

    These are basics, people.
    I like this idea. From now on I shall call Hamas ‘basics.’

    It describes their level of concern for the people of both Palestine and Israel quite admirably.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    TELEGRAPH: Real risk of disruption to our plans warns PM #tomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393310471231582208/photo/1
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,137

    Nigelb said:

    38mm cannon with a muzzle (not exactly) velocity of 6.5km/sec..
    (Test apparatus for a British fusion project.)
    https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/First-Light-Fusion-completes-two-stage-gas-gun-wit

    I am always fascinated by fusion technology. There always seems to be something inescapably Heath Robinson about it.

    If it were to ever actually work it'd be so amazing. I have a an investment here via IP group (IPO)- a tech portfolio company. Great to dream, and I like that this is in their portfolio, but there are less fanciful parts too.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,902

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 13,052

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    Still: it does seem in retrospect that it was this critical period in April when the variant gained a foothold in the UK.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1393271922595667971

    Fuck Boris. If his crass stupidity causes lockdown to be prolonged by one day.....

    How can a government make the SAME tragic mistake SEVERAL TIMES?
    Vote wiffle-waffle get wiffle-waffle.
    "How can a government make the SAME tragic mistake SEVERAL TIMES?"

    Because Johnson is in charge?
    "Thats what he does. That's ALL he does"
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,590
    edited May 14
    Dura_Ace said:



    Because this is the internet, and you’re only ever one step away from being called all sorts of names, I will also emphasise that I have no time at all for Hammas. But then the passing of the PLO and a chance for peace was kind of the Israeli’s fault too.

    Hammas? It's written thusly in Arabic: حماس

    Note there is no consonant doubling shaddah over the mim (Arabic 'm').

    Compare and contrast with hummus: حُمُّص

    HAMAS. Which is also an Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and literally means 'zeal'.

    These are basics, people.
    But is חומוס ישראלי superior to Hamas hummus?

    I've heard this is something over which people are willing to fight to the death.
    So just like everything else in the ME.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,070
    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    It won't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    I don't even get the point in telling people there may be disruption to the lockdown easing - the public cannot do more than it already was, and I haven't seen significant differences in how people have been acting now vs a month ago.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,483
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    It won't.
    The government is apparently affeared that it might
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,068

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    Good sensible post and hope you enjoy your cricket tomorrow

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,676
    Chameleon said:

    Doesn't surprise me, someone who is 18 now (which is ~18% of the 18-24 bucket) was what, 4 years old when Blair left? If they're not very politically engaged it is likely not surprising that they're not up to speed with what happened when they were 4.

    Surely they were leafleting and trying their hand at the odd bit of phone canvassing?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,902

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    Good sensible post and hope you enjoy your cricket tomorrow

    Thanks. I intend too (weather permitting alas). :)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,412
    Dura_Ace said:



    Because this is the internet, and you’re only ever one step away from being called all sorts of names, I will also emphasise that I have no time at all for Hammas. But then the passing of the PLO and a chance for peace was kind of the Israeli’s fault too.

    Hammas? It's written thusly in Arabic: حماس

    Note there is no consonant doubling shaddah over the mim (Arabic 'm').

    Compare and contrast with hummus: حُمُّص

    HAMAS. Which is also an Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and literally means 'zeal'.

    These are basics, people.
    Very interesting and informative.

    Also a bit picky, in that foreign words are naturally foreign for foreigners.

    Expect that when Arabic-speakers are blogging in their own language re: Presbyterianism they might add (or subtract) one of their squiggles, they way English-speakers often do with ours when writing and transliterating (and butchering) foreign words.

    However, am still glad you posted this!
  • Dura_Ace said:



    Because this is the internet, and you’re only ever one step away from being called all sorts of names, I will also emphasise that I have no time at all for Hammas. But then the passing of the PLO and a chance for peace was kind of the Israeli’s fault too.

    Hammas? It's written thusly in Arabic: حماس

    Note there is no consonant doubling shaddah over the mim (Arabic 'm').

    Compare and contrast with hummus: حُمُّص

    HAMAS. Which is also an Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and literally means 'zeal'.

    These are basics, people.
    But is חומוס ישראלי superior to Hamas hummus?

    I've heard this is something over which people are willing to fight to the death.
    So just like everything else in the ME.
    Rather Pratchettian
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    Why wasn't India put on the red list?

    BoZo wanted a good headline...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,219

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because this is the internet, and you’re only ever one step away from being called all sorts of names, I will also emphasise that I have no time at all for Hammas. But then the passing of the PLO and a chance for peace was kind of the Israeli’s fault too.

    Hammas? It's written thusly in Arabic: حماس

    Note there is no consonant doubling shaddah over the mim (Arabic 'm').

    Compare and contrast with hummus: حُمُّص

    HAMAS. Which is also an Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and literally means 'zeal'.

    These are basics, people.
    But is חומוס ישראלי superior to Hamas hummus?

    I've heard this is something over which people are willing to fight to the death.
    So just like everything else in the ME.
    I think even the Arabs accept Israeli hummus is something else.

    After you’ve eaten it, even the very finest hummus from elsewhere tastes like semi-liquid cardboard.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,628
    So irritating on Sky leading with a "Scientific Advisory Group" member saying that the 4th test isn't met and we shouldn't be proceeding on Monday.

    Looked the guy up online, he's not in SAGE, he's Independent SAGE FFS. Why are these Zero Covidiots still being given attention, and why masquerade calling them Scientific Advisory Group? Have enough people twigged that Independent SAGE are full of shit so now they're rebranding again?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Christ the media is depressing for its idiocy. Part of the reason I watch the press conferences each time is that the media really never do understand what they were told, and their reporting on it is therefore pointless. Honestly, have they always been this thick?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,219
    edited May 14

    So irritating on Sky leading with a "Scientific Advisory Group" member saying that the 4th test isn't met and we shouldn't be proceeding on Monday.

    Looked the guy up online, he's not in SAGE, he's Independent SAGE FFS. Why are these Zero Covidiots still being given attention, and why masquerade calling them Scientific Advisory Group? Have enough people twigged that Independent SAGE are full of shit so now they're rebranding again?

    Because bad news sells papers.

    Christ the media is depressing for its idiocy. Part of the reason I watch the press conferences each time is that the media really never do understand what they were told, and their reporting on it is therefore pointless. Honestly, have they always been this thick?

    Yes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,068
    kle4 said:

    I don't even get the point in telling people there may be disruption to the lockdown easing - the public cannot do more than it already was, and I haven't seen significant differences in how people have been acting now vs a month ago.

    I think it was sensible and prudent, but the press conference did not suggest we are facing an armagegddon covid situation, just to be aware and behave responsibly with one another
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,613
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    It won't.
    Yeah, my takeaway from earlier is that they’ll now massively surprise on the upside. This reserved the position a bit, but we don’t seem concerned.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643

    So irritating on Sky leading with a "Scientific Advisory Group" member saying that the 4th test isn't met and we shouldn't be proceeding on Monday.

    Looked the guy up online, he's not in SAGE, he's Independent SAGE FFS. Why are these Zero Covidiots still being given attention, and why masquerade calling them Scientific Advisory Group? Have enough people twigged that Independent SAGE are full of shit so now they're rebranding again?

    Let me guess Christina Pagel?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643
    John Bye
    @_johnbye
    SAGE have rushed out minutes of yesterday's meeting, warning of the danger posed by India's B.1.617.2 variant.

    As it usually takes several days for minutes to appear online, this looks like an effort to speak out before Monday's lifting of restrictions.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,797
    edited May 14

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    John Bye
    @_johnbye
    SAGE have rushed out minutes of yesterday's meeting, warning of the danger posed by India's B.1.617.2 variant.

    As it usually takes several days for minutes to appear online, this looks like an effort to speak out before Monday's lifting of restrictions.

    Or the head of the secretariat is on holiday next week and wanted to get it done....

    No more or less likely that his idea. There’s a million reasons things happen.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,613
    Here's a nonsensical theory about Boris and his reluctance towards border controls.

    Boris thinks he's being Churchillian and has a "we'll fight covid on the beaches and in the streets" mentality.

    Forgetting that Churchill's aim was not to fight Germany on the beaches and in the fields but to not let them get to Britain in the first place.
  • Christ the media is depressing for its idiocy. Part of the reason I watch the press conferences each time is that the media really never do understand what they were told, and their reporting on it is therefore pointless. Honestly, have they always been this thick?

    They truly are.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,068
    edited May 14

    So irritating on Sky leading with a "Scientific Advisory Group" member saying that the 4th test isn't met and we shouldn't be proceeding on Monday.

    Looked the guy up online, he's not in SAGE, he's Independent SAGE FFS. Why are these Zero Covidiots still being given attention, and why masquerade calling them Scientific Advisory Group? Have enough people twigged that Independent SAGE are full of shit so now they're rebranding again?

    And they are Sky's go to commentators and they do not state they are members of independent sage

    Indeed if you listen to them they would hold the country to hostage until all traces of covid have been eliminated
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,449

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,096

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    There you go again, countering Leon's gusset-wetting with rational thought....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,463

    If we voted 55% to abolish the monarchy but it failed because we had a 2/3rds threshold for "major constitutional change" - which it would be - how would republicans feel about that?

    Perhaps more importantly, how would the Monarch feel about that?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,264
    edited May 14

    John Bye
    @_johnbye
    SAGE have rushed out minutes of yesterday's meeting, warning of the danger posed by India's B.1.617.2 variant.

    As it usually takes several days for minutes to appear online, this looks like an effort to speak out before Monday's lifting of restrictions.

    Or the head of the secretariat is on holiday next week and wanted to get it done....

    No more or less likely that his idea. There’s a million reasons things happen.
    Or it was published because the decision was announced today? Quite why that seems unusual is beyond me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,646

    The 17 days that Johnson fucked up in order to further his ideas of an Indian trade deal.

    We are now possibly going to reap his whirlwind.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1393271922595667971

    As @Leon has said: Johnson has to go over this one if it takes off. All the work of the vaccine will be have been thrown away by our PM.

    I remember banging on about it and Him at the time, and being pooh-poohed by various people - including Leon IIRC. Perhaps that was one of Leon's earlier regenerations poking through.
    That is a very data rich Twitter thread, which points a big finger at those four days when tens of thousands of people rushed back to the UK from India to beat the government deadline. Damning.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
    The virus is seasonal.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,483
    The medium range weather forecasts are incredible. 7C maximum in Paris on the 27th May. Snow widespread across Britain

    Day after day of quite sensational cold across northern Europe, if it happens

    I'm here to be cheerful
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,096

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    Yes, because otherwise the '22 will get involved...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,370

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    Obviously if the new variant is so much more transmissible that it is doubling every week at a time when the wild type is declining, then it has the potential to increase hugely the number of infections. Particularly after restrictions are relaxed further.

    If the number of infections increases by a factor of N, so will the number of hospitalisations and deaths. Whatever the percentage efficacy of the vaccine.

    It really shouldn't be hard to understand.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643

    So irritating on Sky leading with a "Scientific Advisory Group" member saying that the 4th test isn't met and we shouldn't be proceeding on Monday.

    Looked the guy up online, he's not in SAGE, he's Independent SAGE FFS. Why are these Zero Covidiots still being given attention, and why masquerade calling them Scientific Advisory Group? Have enough people twigged that Independent SAGE are full of shit so now they're rebranding again?

    And they are Sky's go to commentators and they do not state they are members of independent sage

    Indeed if you listen to them they would hold the country to hostage until all traces of covid have been eliminated
    Seems more like a pressure group with a massive agenda to me than an independent group of scientists.

    And why listen to them more than Great Barrington?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,646
    Leon said:

    The 17 days that Johnson fucked up in order to further his ideas of an Indian trade deal.

    We are now possibly going to reap his whirlwind.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1393271922595667971

    As @Leon has said: Johnson has to go over this one if it takes off. All the work of the vaccine will be have been thrown away by our PM.

    I remember banging on about it and Him at the time, and being pooh-poohed by various people - including Leon IIRC. Perhaps that was one of Leon's earlier regenerations poking through.
    You do NOT remember correctly. I have always been hugely critical of the government's lax approach to the borders, and I was shouting at him to shut down flights with India from the get-go
    Are you sure you weren’t merely relaying concerns? ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,264
    Chris said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    Obviously if the new variant is so much more transmissible that it is doubling every week at a time when the wild type is declining, then it has the potential to increase hugely the number of infections. Particularly after restrictions are relaxed further.

    If the number of infections increases by a factor of N, so will the number of hospitalisations and deaths. Whatever the percentage efficacy of the vaccine.

    It really shouldn't be hard to understand.

    Don't the vaccines reduce the risk of death for people infected?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,628
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    It won't.
    The government is apparently affeared that it might
    They're being fed garbage data by scientists who want to keep everyone locked away forever. Evidence over the next few weeks will show that there's nothing to worry about.
    Now that Monday's lifting is happening (that was always the biggie for me), I'm content to go with "data not dates" for the next step.

    The data may show a rise in cases but no real hospitalisations and deaths, so we can proceed with the final step. This pandemic is done, with the vulnerable vaccinated.

    Many millions more vaccine doses will be given out by 14 June when a decision needs to be made.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,096

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
    There has been an awful lot of normal human behaviour going on in the past month or two. Much of it has been illegal.

    I can't believe how much a government banned. And how many MPs trooped through the lobbies to support it. An inquiry should examine how MPs were far too willing to give up civil liberties to buy a little sense of safety.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    RobD said:

    John Bye
    @_johnbye
    SAGE have rushed out minutes of yesterday's meeting, warning of the danger posed by India's B.1.617.2 variant.

    As it usually takes several days for minutes to appear online, this looks like an effort to speak out before Monday's lifting of restrictions.

    Or the head of the secretariat is on holiday next week and wanted to get it done....

    No more or less likely that his idea. There’s a million reasons things happen.
    Or it was published because the decision was announced today? Quite why that seems unusual is beyond me.
    Yes - the original tweet is bizarre. “You’ve published a thing - what are you trying to hide”?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,613
    Leon said:

    The medium range weather forecasts are incredible. 7C maximum in Paris on the 27th May. Snow widespread across Britain

    Day after day of quite sensational cold across northern Europe, if it happens

    I'm here to be cheerful

    The weather has been fine in Yorkshire and the woods are beautiful with their carpets of bluebells.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643
    alex_ said:

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
    Who knows. I 'd like to think that having been promised that we would lockdown one last time to save the NHS while the vulnerable are vaccinated then most of the public would massively object to or even disobey another lockdown if there is not overwhelming evidence that vaccination is not working.

    But I'm not optimistic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,483

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    .... Because countries have always locked down before it gets that bad? We are proposing to unlockdown just as a dangerous new variant emerges

    Look, I hope the optimists on this forum are right and the government is proved to be a bunch of scaredy cat whelks

    But, I can see why HMG is nervous
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,096
    edited May 14
    Chris said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    Obviously if the new variant is so much more transmissible that it is doubling every week at a time when the wild type is declining, then it has the potential to increase hugely the number of infections. Particularly after restrictions are relaxed further.

    If the number of infections increases by a factor of N, so will the number of hospitalisations and deaths. Whatever the percentage efficacy of the vaccine.

    It really shouldn't be hard to understand.

    Surprised to see you back spouting the same nonsense after the shellacking you got last night.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,068
    The role of the media and other commentators including independent sage should be an integral part of next year's public enquiry
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,613

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
    Not in this country but they have in others and I don't see any place where half the population has been infected within a few weeks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643
    Spare a thought for the Treasury tonight. Looking at the sea of red debt and thinking that SAGE are edging us towards another lockdown.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,902
    Chris said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    Obviously if the new variant is so much more transmissible that it is doubling every week at a time when the wild type is declining, then it has the potential to increase hugely the number of infections. Particularly after restrictions are relaxed further.

    If the number of infections increases by a factor of N, so will the number of hospitalisations and deaths. Whatever the percentage efficacy of the vaccine.

    It really shouldn't be hard to understand.

    My suspicion is that the Indian variant is to a large extent spreading among the British Indian population, from returning travellers, to family in the U.K. and then into schools. I think this might be exaggerating the advantage, but time will tell.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,096
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    .... Because countries have always locked down before it gets that bad? We are proposing to unlockdown just as a dangerous new variant emerges

    Look, I hope the optimists on this forum are right and the government is proved to be a bunch of scaredy cat whelks

    But, I can see why HMG is nervous
    Today struck me as 'lets say something that doesn't actually change anything' to sound like we're HARD so gusset-wetters will be appeased. I don't expect any delay to June removal of all restrictions.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    It won't.
    Yeah, my takeaway from earlier is that they’ll now massively surprise on the upside. This reserved the position a bit, but we don’t seem concerned.
    Ultimately, we’ve had schools reopened for four weeks and there has been no surge in cases, and certainly no surge in hospitalisation and deaths.

    Since notwithstanding the lies of the DfE they appear to have been one of the key factors, along with unis and foreign travel, in spreading the disease in the autumn that is a sign that we can be optimistic there isn’t a likelihood of meltdown if we reopen other venues.

    If the Indian variant were to lead to vaccine escape, we would know by now. So I think that can be discounted.

    Although open plan offices probably should be the last to reopen as they appear to be the highest risk environment.

    And finally, we can definitely say some scientists are power crazed pillocks with bizarre mask fetishes. One thing this pandemic does show is the need to treat scientists and doctors just as sceptically as everyone else.
    Agreed. Prepared to be quoted later and shown up as an idiot if I’m wrong, but it feels to me that by June we’ll have forgotten about this Indian variant, or indeed any variants.

    I certainly will. There’ll be Test Cricket and a major football tournament on home soil, with most home nations involved.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,462
    Omnium said:

    Nigelb said:

    38mm cannon with a muzzle (not exactly) velocity of 6.5km/sec..
    (Test apparatus for a British fusion project.)
    https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/First-Light-Fusion-completes-two-stage-gas-gun-wit

    I am always fascinated by fusion technology. There always seems to be something inescapably Heath Robinson about it.

    If it were to ever actually work it'd be so amazing. I have a an investment here via IP group (IPO)- a tech portfolio company. Great to dream, and I like that this is in their portfolio, but there are less fanciful parts too.
    On the Fusion topic, it's been announced that a company has applied for planning permission to construct a new Fusion reactor in Pembrokeshire!! I can't help thinking they are being a little previous here....by 50 years perhaps?
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 180
    alex_ said:

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
    I'm not particularly worried that it will happen, but if it does I'll probably be out there with the hardcore anti-lockdown nutters protesting. Enough is enough.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,646
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Charles said:

    Meanwhile, in Gilead:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/14/edwin-poots-elected-dup-leader-to-succeed-arlene-foster

    Poots, 55, is a young Earth creationist from the party’s conservative Christian wing who believes the planet is 6,000 years old, a belief that could impede the party’s effort to court new voters.

    So here’s the thing. He’s mocked because he believes in god and creationism. Well I think everyone who believes in god(s) are idiots. That’s my choice. Why is his belief in his version of the history of the planet any worse than believing any other aspects of religion?
    I'll bite. Belief in a creator God is not incompatible with a belief in science. The problem with "young earth" creationists is that they are looking at the science and saying "fake news". They are no better than flat earthers.
    See my later post re distressing. As a scientist I cannot find anything to make me religious, but not all scientists think like me. Some reconcile their beliefs, but I cannot.
    Religion is a matter of faith - it explains what science cannot (yet) explain.
    It’s when it tries to dismiss what science can explain that it just looks silly.
    Or dangerous.
    Most modern religious people in cultures like ours (and there are millions from professors of theoretical physics to bin emptiers) broadly think that science deals accurately and impressively with 'how' questions, and religion deals, rather more opaquely and variably with 'why' questions. Neither is good in the other's domain, some people are very deeply engaged in both.

    Some questions are deeply mysterious in both domains: free will, the nature and origin of consciousness, rationality, appearance and reality, why there is something rather than nothing to name five. Philosophy is a sort of umpire of those questions. Science, religion and philosophy are best when a bit of humility is around.

    Maybe some of the questions are silly ones?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,797

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    It won't.
    Yeah, my takeaway from earlier is that they’ll now massively surprise on the upside. This reserved the position a bit, but we don’t seem concerned.
    Ultimately, we’ve had schools reopened for four weeks and there has been no surge in cases, and certainly no surge in hospitalisation and deaths.

    Since notwithstanding the lies of the DfE they appear to have been one of the key factors, along with unis and foreign travel, in spreading the disease in the autumn that is a sign that we can be optimistic there isn’t a likelihood of meltdown if we reopen other venues.

    If the Indian variant were to lead to vaccine escape, we would know by now. So I think that can be discounted.

    Although open plan offices probably should be the last to reopen as they appear to be the highest risk environment.

    And finally, we can definitely say some scientists are power crazed pillocks with bizarre mask fetishes. One thing this pandemic does show is the need to treat scientists and doctors just as sceptically as everyone else.
    Agreed. Prepared to be quoted later and shown up as an idiot if I’m wrong, but it feels to me that by June we’ll have forgotten about this Indian variant, or indeed any variants.

    I certainly will. There’ll be Test Cricket and a major football tournament on home soil, with most home nations involved.
    Maybe we'll have to step in and take India's place in the World test final. Or we could just spend all summer playing the New Zealanders whilst they're banned from going home.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,125
    Hopefully the material of tomorrow’s header

    David Herdson on Twitter

    “After 13 months in office, the only Leaders of the Opposition since 1977 whose net satisfaction ratings were worse* than Keir Starmer's were Jeremy Corbyn, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Foot - and all bar Foot were very close.

    * Ipsos-Mori series”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,264
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tasty match between Yorkshire and Glamorgan, despite the loss of a day.
    Young Harry Duke looks a prospect.

    Will be interesting to see who they pick for the first Test. Looks like Craig Overton for Ben Stokes. Fairly strong rumours that Bracey will play, either as wicketkeeper or in the top three replacing Burns. Lawrence has presumably done enough to save his place.

    We could see a side like this.

    Crawley
    Sibley
    Bracey
    Root
    Pope
    Lawrence
    Foakes
    Overton
    Anderson
    Broad
    Leach

    Or drop Lawrence and raise Foakes/Overton one place, inserting another seamer - Robinson or Archer.
    There’s an Overton window pun crying out to be made, but I’m just too tired.
    Good night all.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,613
    alex_ said:

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
    Bit difficult to have more restrictions in this country when the government is simultaneously allowing people to fly to Portugal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643

    The role of the media and other commentators including independent sage should be an integral part of next year's public enquiry

    Yep. And also this habit of scientists from SAGE "speaking in an independent capacity" every morning on R4 to tell us how their own latest modelling shows we are not lockdown enough and so on.

    If they are on SAGE then the minutes should do the talking.

    If they want to be independent then leave SAGE.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,096
    Maffew said:

    alex_ said:

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
    I'm not particularly worried that it will happen, but if it does I'll probably be out there with the hardcore anti-lockdown nutters protesting. Enough is enough.
    I agree.

    Not sure if anyone here has noticed, but society has basically returned to normality. The govt are about a month behind the curve. Everyone I know has been hugging for ages, going for dinners, having boozy evenings etc since late March.

    And case numbers are tiny, hospitalisations smaller still.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,068
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    .... Because countries have always locked down before it gets that bad? We are proposing to unlockdown just as a dangerous new variant emerges

    Look, I hope the optimists on this forum are right and the government is proved to be a bunch of scaredy cat whelks

    But, I can see why HMG is nervous
    It is right to be so, but tonight's press conference was well balanced and being responsibly cautious while at the same opening up on Monday

    With so many vaccinated, and tens of thousands added daily, we just need to hold our nerve and not fall into doom and gloom, when optimism is needed
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,646

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    It won't.
    The government is apparently affeared that it might
    They're being fed garbage data by scientists who want to keep everyone locked away forever. Evidence over the next few weeks will show that there's nothing to worry about.
    Now that Monday's lifting is happening (that was always the biggie for me), I'm content to go with "data not dates" for the next step.

    The data may show a rise in cases but no real hospitalisations and deaths, so we can proceed with the final step. This pandemic is done, with the vulnerable vaccinated.

    Many millions more vaccine doses will be given out by 14 June when a decision needs to be made.
    Monday’s not such a big day now that we are only allowed to leave but not to arrive.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,797

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
    Not in this country but they have in others and I don't see any place where half the population has been infected within a few weeks.
    280 deaths a day is what's currently (pro-rata) happening in large parts of Europe, and not far off the numbers in America where they've declared that they've 'tamed the virus'
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,613
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    .... Because countries have always locked down before it gets that bad? We are proposing to unlockdown just as a dangerous new variant emerges

    Look, I hope the optimists on this forum are right and the government is proved to be a bunch of scaredy cat whelks

    But, I can see why HMG is nervous
    We're unlocking with 55 million vaccinations and millions more every week.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,646
    Leon said:

    The medium range weather forecasts are incredible. 7C maximum in Paris on the 27th May. Snow widespread across Britain

    Day after day of quite sensational cold across northern Europe, if it happens

    I'm here to be cheerful

    The BBC has 14C here - usually an underestimate - and 18C in London for that day, which is pretty normal for late May
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,463

    kinabalu said:

    People like Beckett cannot see Priti Patel, Sajid Javid, Trever Phillips etc... as minorities because minorities support their views. It's a really ugly blind spot.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1393160472908771332?s=20

    The Blessed Owen has weighed in:

    Double standards Jones...if a Tory or a business had suggested deporting an ethnic minority MP, he would be organizing a pile-on and boycott.
    Imagine if a Tory had said that David Lammy or Diane Abbott should be deported. Would he be so forgiving then? This is my problem with any Talking Head like Owen. They are almost always blind to their own sides failures.
    He was clear sighted on antisemitism. And he said this tweet was bad. There are many more one eyed than he. Including many of those attacking him on this.
    Hm. Here’s Owen Jones totally not being a gigantic hypocrite on the topic of racism:


    But as I say, there are far worse hypocrites and these include most of those who attack him.

    I read lots of his stuff. You just see what right wing warriors pluck and copy. You aren't knowledgeable here.

    My opinion thus trumps yours on this subject. Just as yours does mine on Julius Caesar.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    .... Because countries have always locked down before it gets that bad? We are proposing to unlockdown just as a dangerous new variant emerges

    Look, I hope the optimists on this forum are right and the government is proved to be a bunch of scaredy cat whelks

    But, I can see why HMG is nervous
    I can fully see why they would be bloody nervous. For a start if this goes as pear shaped as SAGE thinks it might then Johnson is fully culpable this time. No way to hide it. He kept the flights flowing to and from Indian and here we are up shitcreek apparently.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,226
    Maffew said:

    alex_ said:

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
    I'm not particularly worried that it will happen, but if it does I'll probably be out there with the hardcore anti-lockdown nutters protesting. Enough is enough.
    Yes, I agree. If it turns out that even with vaccinations we can't open up then we'll never open up. Time to give up and just let it wash over us.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,483

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    .... Because countries have always locked down before it gets that bad? We are proposing to unlockdown just as a dangerous new variant emerges

    Look, I hope the optimists on this forum are right and the government is proved to be a bunch of scaredy cat whelks

    But, I can see why HMG is nervous
    We're unlocking with 55 million vaccinations and millions more every week.
    Yes. True. Fingers X'd
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,412
    Re: SAGE, regardless of the quality or otherwise of their research, conclusions and recommendations, their public relations has NOT been sage. To put it mildly.

    Of course same could be said - and rightly - from time to time about yours truly and others here on PB. But then nobody in his right mind pays any attention to us!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,226
    Chris said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    Obviously if the new variant is so much more transmissible that it is doubling every week at a time when the wild type is declining, then it has the potential to increase hugely the number of infections. Particularly after restrictions are relaxed further.

    If the number of infections increases by a factor of N, so will the number of hospitalisations and deaths. Whatever the percentage efficacy of the vaccine.

    It really shouldn't be hard to understand.

    No it won't, because those most likely to be hospitalised and killed have been vaccinated.
    It's increasing amongst those who largely don't suffer from it, isn't it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,219

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    It won't.
    Yeah, my takeaway from earlier is that they’ll now massively surprise on the upside. This reserved the position a bit, but we don’t seem concerned.
    Ultimately, we’ve had schools reopened for four weeks and there has been no surge in cases, and certainly no surge in hospitalisation and deaths.

    Since notwithstanding the lies of the DfE they appear to have been one of the key factors, along with unis and foreign travel, in spreading the disease in the autumn that is a sign that we can be optimistic there isn’t a likelihood of meltdown if we reopen other venues.

    If the Indian variant were to lead to vaccine escape, we would know by now. So I think that can be discounted.

    Although open plan offices probably should be the last to reopen as they appear to be the highest risk environment.

    And finally, we can definitely say some scientists are power crazed pillocks with bizarre mask fetishes. One thing this pandemic does show is the need to treat scientists and doctors just as sceptically as everyone else.
    Agreed. Prepared to be quoted later and shown up as an idiot if I’m wrong, but it feels to me that by June we’ll have forgotten about this Indian variant, or indeed any variants.

    I certainly will. There’ll be Test Cricket and a major football tournament on home soil, with most home nations involved.
    One thing our esteemed scientific community have forgotten is that this is about balancing risks. The risk of Covid taking off, as against the risk of society breaking down if we lock down longer. The risk of variants arising from infections leading to vaccine escape, against the risk of major health problems occurring form keeping us all indoors all the time.

    At the moment, all the indications are that the risks involved in easing lockdown are low. That’s not to say things couldn’t go wrong, but if 20% of the population are meeting daily in old unventilated buildings and not wearing masks (and they really are not, because again these scientists don’t understand teenagers) without the virus going mental, that’s a sign the risk of opening other venues where masks would be worn or where ventilation is likely to be better are minimal.

    Unfortunately these people seem to be suffering from the burden of knowledge. They keep thinking of all the things that could go wrong and are paralysed with fear as a result. Therefore, they dare not accept good news. At the same time, in doing so they ignore that balance of other risks.

    Masks in school are a good example. SAGE estimates they could cut transmission by 30%. Leaving aside the interesting de facto admission that everything the DfE said about transmission in schools in the autumn must have been a lie, the fact is that even if they do the cost - discomfort, confusion, trouble communicating (as a deaf teacher my life has been beyond impossible for the last two months) and the potential to cause nice anonymised mischief simply isn’t worth it. It makes returning to schools pretty well worthless for them. It’s no coincidence those people at the unions agitating to keep them haven’t taught for years. It is not a good balance of risk.

    So I think another casualty of this pandemic will be SAGE.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,613

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    .... Because countries have always locked down before it gets that bad? We are proposing to unlockdown just as a dangerous new variant emerges

    Look, I hope the optimists on this forum are right and the government is proved to be a bunch of scaredy cat whelks

    But, I can see why HMG is nervous
    I can fully see why they would be bloody nervous. For a start if this goes as pear shaped as SAGE thinks it might then Johnson is fully culpable this time. No way to hide it. He kept the flights flowing to and from Indian and here we are up shitcreek apparently.

    Were the SAGE bods calling for border control ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,483
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    The medium range weather forecasts are incredible. 7C maximum in Paris on the 27th May. Snow widespread across Britain

    Day after day of quite sensational cold across northern Europe, if it happens

    I'm here to be cheerful

    The BBC has 14C here - usually an underestimate - and 18C in London for that day, which is pretty normal for late May
    Models like GFS are ahead of the BBC. They are the raw data. GFS is super pessimistic, its like a bipolar version of me in a funk
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,264
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because this is the internet, and you’re only ever one step away from being called all sorts of names, I will also emphasise that I have no time at all for Hammas. But then the passing of the PLO and a chance for peace was kind of the Israeli’s fault too.

    Hammas? It's written thusly in Arabic: حماس

    Note there is no consonant doubling shaddah over the mim (Arabic 'm').

    Compare and contrast with hummus: حُمُّص

    HAMAS. Which is also an Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and literally means 'zeal'.

    These are basics, people.
    But is חומוס ישראלי superior to Hamas hummus?

    I've heard this is something over which people are willing to fight to the death.
    So just like everything else in the ME.
    I think even the Arabs accept Israeli hummus is something else.

    After you’ve eaten it, even the very finest hummus from elsewhere tastes like semi-liquid cardboard.
    Nah - the best hummus o ever had was in a tumbledown shack in a back alley in Ramallah. I was just catching up with some friends and they took me there to meet someone.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,412
    edited May 14
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    The medium range weather forecasts are incredible. 7C maximum in Paris on the 27th May. Snow widespread across Britain

    Day after day of quite sensational cold across northern Europe, if it happens

    I'm here to be cheerful

    The BBC has 14C here - usually an underestimate - and 18C in London for that day, which is pretty normal for late May
    Models like GFS are ahead of the BBC. They are the raw data. GFS is super pessimistic, its like a bipolar version of me in a funk
    Leon - "its like a bipolar version of me in a funk"

    Talk about yer bleak dystopian vision!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    THIS. 1000x THIS.

    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    I am genuinely perplexed. And have asked experts on the show about this all week.

    90%+ of those at risk of illness/death have been vaccinated.

    If they don’t think the new variant is resistant to the vaccine, what is the risk? Young healthy people get Covid for a week?

    I've told you. Derr. There are 5m older people not wholly vaxxed. That's enough to cause big problems
    It won't.
    Yeah, my takeaway from earlier is that they’ll now massively surprise on the upside. This reserved the position a bit, but we don’t seem concerned.
    Ultimately, we’ve had schools reopened for four weeks and there has been no surge in cases, and certainly no surge in hospitalisation and deaths.

    Since notwithstanding the lies of the DfE they appear to have been one of the key factors, along with unis and foreign travel, in spreading the disease in the autumn that is a sign that we can be optimistic there isn’t a likelihood of meltdown if we reopen other venues.

    If the Indian variant were to lead to vaccine escape, we would know by now. So I think that can be discounted.

    Although open plan offices probably should be the last to reopen as they appear to be the highest risk environment.

    And finally, we can definitely say some scientists are power crazed pillocks with bizarre mask fetishes. One thing this pandemic does show is the need to treat scientists and doctors just as sceptically as everyone else.
    Agreed. Prepared to be quoted later and shown up as an idiot if I’m wrong, but it feels to me that by June we’ll have forgotten about this Indian variant, or indeed any variants.

    I certainly will. There’ll be Test Cricket and a major football tournament on home soil, with most home nations involved.
    One thing our esteemed scientific community have forgotten is that this is about balancing risks. The risk of Covid taking off, as against the risk of society breaking down if we lock down longer. The risk of variants arising from infections leading to vaccine escape, against the risk of major health problems occurring form keeping us all indoors all the time.

    At the moment, all the indications are that the risks involved in easing lockdown are low. That’s not to say things couldn’t go wrong, but if 20% of the population are meeting daily in old unventilated buildings and not wearing masks (and they really are not, because again these scientists don’t understand teenagers) without the virus going mental, that’s a sign the risk of opening other venues where masks would be worn or where ventilation is likely to be better are minimal.

    Unfortunately these people seem to be suffering from the burden of knowledge. They keep thinking of all the things that could go wrong and are paralysed with fear as a result. Therefore, they dare not accept good news. At the same time, in doing so they ignore that balance of other risks.

    Masks in school are a good example. SAGE estimates they could cut transmission by 30%. Leaving aside the interesting de facto admission that everything the DfE said about transmission in schools in the autumn must have been a lie, the fact is that even if they do the cost - discomfort, confusion, trouble communicating (as a deaf teacher my life has been beyond impossible for the last two months) and the potential to cause nice anonymised mischief simply isn’t worth it. It makes returning to schools pretty well worthless for them. It’s no coincidence those people at the unions agitating to keep them haven’t taught for years. It is not a good balance of risk.

    So I think another casualty of this pandemic will be SAGE.
    It definitely needs reform.

    Fraser Nelson was saying this morning that one of the issues is SAGE are supposed to collate/synthesis the scientific advice and then pass on up to a group what weighs up other issues and proportions things e.g. economics. There should even have been an actual other committee sitting above SAGE. That has just not happened in this crisis. SAGE has become "the science" and "the science must be followed".

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,449

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    We haven't been fully mixing as normal since the pandemic started, but potentially will be from next month.
    The virus is seasonal.
    Only in the sense that the weather influences social behaviour. It doesn't go away because of the time of year.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,643

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAIL: Indian variant threat to June freedom #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1393298439815974913/photo/1

    We've protected the NHS. We've vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Unless SAGE can come up with concrete evidence that this variant evades the vaccine and will fill up wards again then the politicians should over rule their advice.

    And by concrete evidence I do not mean one of Warwick's mathematical models.
    This is a common error. The variant does not have to evade the vaccine to be a significant problem. It just has to be more transmissible. There is plenty of evidence that it is, we just don't know how much
    I just don't buy it. The vast majority of cases that have ended up in hospital are the older cohort who have now been vaccinated.
    We did the maths earlier. There are ~5m vulnerable (over 40) people unvaxxed in the UK. If half of them catch the very infectious new variant in the summer, we would see about 280 extra dead per day, and a total of 250,000 hospital admissions in the same time

    That's enough to seriously impact the NHS and derail unlockdown
    And why would half of them be infected in the summer ?

    That rate of infection hasn't happened anywhere at any time.
    .... Because countries have always locked down before it gets that bad? We are proposing to unlockdown just as a dangerous new variant emerges

    Look, I hope the optimists on this forum are right and the government is proved to be a bunch of scaredy cat whelks

    But, I can see why HMG is nervous
    I can fully see why they would be bloody nervous. For a start if this goes as pear shaped as SAGE thinks it might then Johnson is fully culpable this time. No way to hide it. He kept the flights flowing to and from Indian and here we are up shitcreek apparently.

    Were the SAGE bods calling for border control ?
    Dunno. But pretty sure other countries with far fewer issues were being put on red lists.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,989

    alex_ said:

    Wow, Looks like Leon was spot on when he suggested that Boris was wobbling on ending the lockdown. Will we ever be set free?

    That’s not what I heard today. Quite rightly they are taking the new variant seriously, and will see what the next few weeks throw up. Special efforts where needed too. All good. Genuinely if there is a problem arising over the next month then I think people will, with resignation, understand. But that snag needs to be extra hospitalisation and death, not just more cases among the unvaccinated. Cases overall are not really taking off yet and we are 4.5 weeks since the reopening of April, and the Indian mutant has been here for a while. I am still positive. And unlike last may im allowed to play cricket tomorrow. Shame the weather didn’t get the message...
    The problem is that the Govt are terrified of the "exponential" argument. Once they finally get it into their minds that they *might* need to lockdown things, the whole thing has a snowball effect because their whole focus switches rapidly from "wait and see" to "act as fast as possible". At this rate we'll be lucky if the only impact is to "delay" the June date. As opposed to rowing back on the May 17th opening within a few weeks.

    But i think this time they could well have big political problems in doing so. Because they (at present) can provide little evidence that the vaccinated in general are at serious risk. If they tell the people who are vaccinated, and therefore feel personally very safe (in combination with most of the unvaccinated who feel the same because of their youth) that they've got to go back in their box...
    Bit difficult to have more restrictions in this country when the government is simultaneously allowing people to fly to Portugal.
    And remarkably the Portuguese government want us to go.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,463
    edited May 14
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rpjs said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    There's a widespread expectation among Westminster-based journalists and foreign correspondents reporting from London that a huge constitutional bust up between Sturgeon and Johnson is inevitable. But it's not clear the British government has to do anything 1/9
    ....

    In either event, the constitutional clash between London and Edinburgh doesn't happen. The 2nd referendum is stopped by Scots in Scottish courts by Scottish judges, with the Johnson government looking on. Not quite the SNP playbook. 9/9


    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1393201453863419909?s=20

    Very plausable
    Doesn't surprise me, esp after the prorogation case (which had Unionists astounded as the UKSC wouldn't override Scots law as she is spoke in Parliament Square - remember).

    The law does need to be checked and tested, but the issue always was that the law itself was incompatible with the mandates conferred on the Scottish Pmt. Which will put the ball in the Westminster court sooner or later.
    The MSPs *can’t* get a mandate that is ultra vires. It simply isn’t a mandate.

    It’s like a candidate for PCC in Yorkshire making a declaration of war on Germany the centrepiece of his manifesto. Even if he’s elected it doesn’t mean he has a mandate to declare war on Germany
    That's right, if you are relying solely on a legal technicality, but it expresses what is wanted - a change in the law, and that is in the political realm [edit]. And I'm off to finish what I am doing as we are now at the same old logjam.
    Around 50% want a further referendum. Not an overwhelming case.
    More than half the Scottish Pmt. And most of the Scottish representation in HoC. Which is the way things work in a representative democracy. Which is where we were before. So I'll change the subject now and admire the blue sky asnd puffy white clouds outside.
    Not in ultra vires matters

    - Holyrood has no authority in this matter. It’s composition is irrelevant
    - Westminster doesn’t have a nationalist majority
    - The case that the SNP can make is that there is a moral imperative for Westminster to grant a referendum because there is overwhelming demand. But if you add all the votes cast in the latest election is about 50/50.
    Right, but what does "ultra vires" mean in this context? Obviously it's clear that an Act of Holyrood actually declaring Scotland independent of the United Kingdom would not be lawful under the Scotland Act, but is that the case for legislation authorizing a referendum? Historically, local government in the UK has been very constrained as to what it can authorize the expenditure of public money on, with, in general, any expenditure on a matter not specifically authorized by statute being ultra vires and the councillors subject to surcharge to reclaim such monies spent.

    In recent years though, legislation has been passed to allow local authorities to assume a general power of competence in which the formula is reversed: they may spend public money on any matter of benefit to their community unless specifically forbidden to by statute. IIRC, this power was first enacted by Westminster for English authorities, but at least one of the devolved assemblies (NI, I think) has enacted it for its local authorities. So, if a devolved assembly can confer a general power of competence upon its local authorities, then surely it follows that it itself possesses such a power?

    So in that case, is it ultra vires for Scotland to hold a referendum? It could be argued that all the Scottish government would be doing is asking its electorate for authorization to negotiate an extension of the Scottish Parliament's powers with the UK government. As the Scotland Act (and the legislation for Wales and NI too) has been amended several times since 1998 to give Scotland more powers, and presumably the Scottish government must have spent public money on the process of requesting and negotiating such powers, how is the expenditure on an independence referendum any different?
    All matters related to the Union are specifically reserved to Westminster
    Just 6 Tory Westminster seats in Scotland...
    So?
    It would be better if you skipped the pseudo-intellectual justification and simply admitted that you don't want Scotland to be independent so they can't have their referendum. At least it would be more honest.
    If the Scots vote for independence they can be independent. I think it will be a shame but it’s up to them.

    However the majority of people who voted in 2014 chose to stay part of the United Kingdom. They have the right to have that decision respected. After a period of time - I think about 20 years but there is no magic to that - there can be another vote. The exception is if there is evidence that an overwhelming majority of voters have changed their mind. That is not there - the split is about 50/50
    The split in 2013 was about 27:73 IIRC. And your party allowed a referendum then.
    I wasn’t a member of any party then and I am not now either.

    But there hadn’t been a referendum for 35 years. I wasn’t happy that I had never had a chance to vote on EU membership so it’s reasonable people should have a chance to vote occasionally on Scottish membership of the UK
    Regarding the idea of generational referendums. Should it not be that once people not born at the time of the last one are now eligible to vote then the question can be reopened?
    That seems to have a certain internal logic to me.

    That’s part of my logic for thinking every 20 years is about right.
    This is a nonsense idea. Why should there be a vote every 20 years if there's no demand for it?

    What you need is 2 things at the same time. Demand + Rationale.

    We have that now. The rationale is Brexit - to justify a vote within a decade of the last one.

    And the demand is the democratic mandate from the Scottish election. Seats, just as for Westminster.

    This really is it.

    Against this is just one thing - Westminster's legal right to refuse it.

    You're spinning like a top to avoid accepting what cannot be disputed.
This discussion has been closed.