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Annalena Baerbock to succeed Merkel? – politicalbetting.com

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  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    QT was a waste of time.

    Nandy landed one zinger when she asked Buckland why, if the Tories were so keen to protect the democratic system, they had failed after 18 months to enact a single recommendation from the Russian report which described foreign interference as the biggest threat to our democracy?

    Yeah, why is that?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Why was it so bad for Trump to call Covid the Chinese virus, but ok to call variants by country of origin?

    Because the virus never came from China? Only reason I can think of

    Wuhan Flu has a nice ring to it.
    wuflu has been the going name in a lot of my circles.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Why was it so bad for Trump to call Covid the Chinese virus, but ok to call variants by country of origin?

    Because the virus never came from China? Only reason I can think of

    Because Trump's was unnecessary xenophobia. The virus was known as Coronavirus or Covid and there was literally no reason to call it the China virus except to deliberately associate it with China and pass the blame on to China.

    With the rise of variants, they're only known by meaningless (to the public) code names or the identifying nation. There is no equivalent name already used like coronavirus or covid.

    B.117 or B1.162.2 or whatever it is means nothing to any but either an expert or an obsessive nerd about this, hence the names by nation that mean something. That wasn't the case with original covid.
    How come everyone's saying things like "the Indian variant", "the UK variant", "the Brazilian variant", "the South African variant"?
    Because that's the only meaningful names.

    What else would you call it instead?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    On topic (with apologies to RB for ignoring his thread header until now), I can easily see the Germans going for a Green Chancellor but I think that will be the cause of massive issues within the EU going forward. If things are bad now between Germany and countries like Poland and Hungary, they will be magnitudes worse with a left wing environmentalist in power in Berlin looking to use the EU to spread her agenda.

    What might be good for Germany may be further bad news for EU unity.

    Baerbock is an enviro all right, but she's hardly leftwing with (or about) it.

    And my own fearless prediction, is that she & Greens will end up in coalition with CDU/CSU either with Greens or Union ending up first in seats.

    A Green - Black or Black - Green government.
    The amusing thing of course is that her green ambitions are less green than the Tories green ambitions.

    Though no doubt if she did win then many, especially on Sky it seems, will be calling on the UK to do more. Ignoring the fact that her winning would be bringing Germany's ambitions closer to our own.
    Is it possible that Annalena and the Greens are more sincere in their greenery, than Boris and the Blues?

    Anyone making book on that?
    No evidence for that, no.

    It would be interesting if Annalena wins and her and Boris were in charge to 2030 - I wonder which country will have done more to reduce greenhouse emissions by 2030? My money would be on the UK, Boris and the Blues.
    Are you giving odds? On Boris lasting until 2030 that is!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    I don't think anyone's going to be visiting Portugal for at least a few more weeks. They've extended their highest level of alert to the end of the month.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    Unspecified virus of unknown origin....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522
    For real by-election junkies:

    http://www.britainelects.com/2021/05/13/previewing-the-airdrie-shotts-by-election-13-may-2021/

    Summary - the SNP won the same area reasonably comfortably last week.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't there supposed to be the Airdrie byelection today ?

    If so this must be the most unbyelectie night ever on PB.

    I keep trying to talk about it. A Labour win isn't completely impossible.
    Are they counting tonight?
    (Corrected) Yes, they are.
    Does anyone know what media is most likely to be live bloging or posting A&S result in the wee hours?
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    For everyone worrying about the Indian vuvu, here's PHE's latest report.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986380/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_11_England.pdf

    I'm horrified at the idea of rowing back on the roadmap, but I think at this stage people are getting over excited as with South African Covid. The graphs of non-traveller prevalence are helpful.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    So Israel gone into Gaza then.

    Looks like Netanyahu remains in power then, and that prospective coalition including an Arab party won’t happen.

    Funny coincidence.

    dixiedean said:

    So Israel gone into Gaza then.

    Looks like Netanyahu remains in power then, and that prospective coalition including an Arab party won’t happen.

    Funny coincidence.
    Netanyahu and Hamas locked in a dance of mutual survival.
    Netanyahu is one of the craftiest politicians of the 21st century. He's been in and around power in Israel since before Blair got in !
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NOW LIVE - New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary Debate - opening statements just concluded.

    https://www.thecity.nyc/2021/5/12/22433369/nyc-mayoral-debate-where-to-watch-thursday-night
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    So Israel gone into Gaza then.

    Looks like Netanyahu remains in power then, and that prospective coalition including an Arab party won’t happen.

    Funny coincidence.

    dixiedean said:

    So Israel gone into Gaza then.

    Looks like Netanyahu remains in power then, and that prospective coalition including an Arab party won’t happen.

    Funny coincidence.
    Netanyahu and Hamas locked in a dance of mutual survival.
    Like DUP and SF in NI?
    Very much.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,591

    NOW LIVE - New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary Debate - opening statements just concluded.

    https://www.thecity.nyc/2021/5/12/22433369/nyc-mayoral-debate-where-to-watch-thursday-night

    Free burgers and fries with your vaccination in NYC.

    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1392853246725791745
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    "NorthLanCouncil
    @nlcpeople

    First ballot box arrives at the count centre after today's UK Parliamentary by-election in Airdrie and Shotts, and is soon opened and emptied for our team of staff to start counting. The result will be announced later on social media and our web site. https://crowd.in/Lfy6Ya"

    https://twitter.com/nlcpeople/status/1392965650033872905
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    DOGE is back in business :D
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ...
    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE is back in business :D

    I have absolutely no idea how this all works, but everyone tells me I should be buying them
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    For real by-election junkies:

    http://www.britainelects.com/2021/05/13/previewing-the-airdrie-shotts-by-election-13-may-2021/

    Summary - the SNP won the same area reasonably comfortably last week.

    Yours truly does have an advantage, as it's just 4:22 PST my location!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    isam said:

    ...

    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE is back in business :D

    I have absolutely no idea how this all works, but everyone tells me I should be buying them
    I bought a thousand at 5 cents, worth around $500 now. I think Max can retire if he finds the old laptop he has his millions on...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,785
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    ...

    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE is back in business :D

    I have absolutely no idea how this all works, but everyone tells me I should be buying them
    I bought a thousand at 5 cents, worth around $500 now. I think Max can retire if he finds the old laptop he has his millions on...
    It's not retirement money just yet...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,812

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Why was it so bad for Trump to call Covid the Chinese virus, but ok to call variants by country of origin?

    Because the virus never came from China? Only reason I can think of

    Because Trump's was unnecessary xenophobia. The virus was known as Coronavirus or Covid and there was literally no reason to call it the China virus except to deliberately associate it with China and pass the blame on to China.

    With the rise of variants, they're only known by meaningless (to the public) code names or the identifying nation. There is no equivalent name already used like coronavirus or covid.

    B.117 or B1.162.2 or whatever it is means nothing to any but either an expert or an obsessive nerd about this, hence the names by nation that mean something. That wasn't the case with original covid.
    How come everyone's saying things like "the Indian variant", "the UK variant", "the Brazilian variant", "the South African variant"?
    Because that's the only meaningful names.

    What else would you call it instead?
    Well, the original Covid was the "Chinese variant"...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    ...

    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE is back in business :D

    I have absolutely no idea how this all works, but everyone tells me I should be buying them
    People
    Offer
    Now
    Zero
    Interest in

    Showing
    Clearly
    How
    Escalating
    Money
    Endures
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,785
    edited May 2021
    Also, just came back from our first house party in over a year. Felt amazing to cut loose for an evening. Music, booze, mandy, a proper night. Probably about 60 people in an undisclosed location in Camden. If the government outlaws this in June I fear for everyone under 30 who will lose the best part of the their lives unable to party and find out just exactly who/what they are. The idea that losing nightclubs and close social contact is cost free is a myth perpetrated by old people who have forgotten or never really appreciated what living really is.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    ...

    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE is back in business :D

    I have absolutely no idea how this all works, but everyone tells me I should be buying them
    I bought a thousand at 5 cents, worth around $500 now. I think Max can retire if he finds the old laptop he has his millions on...
    It's not retirement money just yet...
    So you found the laptop rummaging in your attic?

    And IF you do strike the Mother Lode, how's about "investing" to fund a Home for Indigent PBers?

    The need is great - give generously!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    It's odd how the A&S by-election is getting so much less coverage than Hartlepool when you consider Labour have a good chance of getting closer to winning A&S than they did in Hartlepool.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,113
    The market capitalization of Dogecoin is $62 billion.

    Bear in mind that, unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, there is sensible way for transaction volume to scale. And unlike Monero, there is no anonymity.

    So, it's not entirely clear why anyone would want to own Doge, except as a trade.

    It's simply a "hustle" where you sell to someone a little later who will hope to sell it to someone further down the line.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,785
    rcs1000 said:

    The market capitalization of Dogecoin is $62 billion.

    Bear in mind that, unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, there is sensible way for transaction volume to scale. And unlike Monero, there is no anonymity.

    So, it's not entirely clear why anyone would want to own Doge, except as a trade.

    It's simply a "hustle" where you sell to someone a little later who will hope to sell it to someone further down the line.

    I've held it for that purpose. It's simply a means to sell it to some rube who will hopefully hold the inevitable losses.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169

    isam said:

    ...

    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE is back in business :D

    I have absolutely no idea how this all works, but everyone tells me I should be buying them
    People
    Offer
    Now
    Zero
    Interest in

    Showing
    Clearly
    How
    Escalating
    Money
    Endures
    Is $DOGE a ponzi ?

    From Investopaedia:

    A guaranteed promise of high returns with little risk - There's no guaranteed return, no dividends or any such like are paid. You buy 100 DOGE, you own 100 DOGE - well perhaps 99 due to a brokerage fee, no different to a stock.

    A consistent flow of returns regardless of market conditions - There's no guaranteed cashflow.

    Investments that have not been registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) - I think Binance / coinbase must be registered with someone or other...

    Investment strategies that are secret or described as too complex to explain - Again you but one BTC, DOGE, ETH and you own 1 ETH, BTC or DOGE.

    Clients not allowed to view official paperwork for their investment - You can see your balances on any of the reputable sites.

    Clients facing difficulties removing their money - Never had an issue with coinbase or binance. Haven't tried to withdraw mind, but I've converted freely back and forth to Euro on Binance and Sterling on coinbase.

    The price IS driven entirely by sentiment. There's nothing underpinning any of the crypto currencies, but then again what underpins sterling , the greenback or the Euro ? They're means of exchange. Musk indicating he may accept DOGE as a means of exchange for Teslas and whatnot is what has driven the recent spike from 30 Euro cents back to 40.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    The market capitalization of Dogecoin is $62 billion.

    Bear in mind that, unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, there is sensible way for transaction volume to scale. And unlike Monero, there is no anonymity.

    So, it's not entirely clear why anyone would want to own Doge, except as a trade.

    It's simply a "hustle" where you sell to someone a little later who will hope to sell it to someone further down the line.

    Isn't that what they all are?

    As well as consuming an absolutely ludicrous amount of primarily coal-fuelled electricity. Which makes the likes of Musk backing them really off.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,785
    Honestly, this was one of the major missing parts of life for me (and my wife). Not being able to properly live in the moment for an evening, not worry about anything, not think about anything other than existing and being with my wife in a surrounding of amazing music and people also in the moment of life has been a huge miss for me.

    We need this back in our lives all of us. An illegal house party isn't enough. I need to go to a proper late night bar with my friends, with my wife, even with my work colleagues. If the government fails to deliver that in June it would be a big failure. Every person deserves the ability to cut loose and not have to think about anything else for an evening.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    ...

    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE is back in business :D

    I have absolutely no idea how this all works, but everyone tells me I should be buying them
    People
    Offer
    Now
    Zero
    Interest in

    Showing
    Clearly
    How
    Escalating
    Money
    Endures
    Is $DOGE a ponzi ?

    From Investopaedia:

    A guaranteed promise of high returns with little risk - There's no guaranteed return, no dividends or any such like are paid. You buy 100 DOGE, you own 100 DOGE - well perhaps 99 due to a brokerage fee, no different to a stock.

    A consistent flow of returns regardless of market conditions - There's no guaranteed cashflow.

    Investments that have not been registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) - I think Binance / coinbase must be registered with someone or other...

    Investment strategies that are secret or described as too complex to explain - Again you but one BTC, DOGE, ETH and you own 1 ETH, BTC or DOGE.

    Clients not allowed to view official paperwork for their investment - You can see your balances on any of the reputable sites.

    Clients facing difficulties removing their money - Never had an issue with coinbase or binance. Haven't tried to withdraw mind, but I've converted freely back and forth to Euro on Binance and Sterling on coinbase.

    The price IS driven entirely by sentiment. There's nothing underpinning any of the crypto currencies, but then again what underpins sterling , the greenback or the Euro ? They're means of exchange. Musk indicating he may accept DOGE as a means of exchange for Teslas and whatnot is what has driven the recent spike from 30 Euro cents back to 40.
    Didn't Musk just trash some bitcoinery on "Saturday Night Live" and thus caused it to tumble?

    Elon Musk = Henry Ford with a bong
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,113

    rcs1000 said:

    The market capitalization of Dogecoin is $62 billion.

    Bear in mind that, unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, there is sensible way for transaction volume to scale. And unlike Monero, there is no anonymity.

    So, it's not entirely clear why anyone would want to own Doge, except as a trade.

    It's simply a "hustle" where you sell to someone a little later who will hope to sell it to someone further down the line.

    Isn't that what they all are?

    As well as consuming an absolutely ludicrous amount of primarily coal-fuelled electricity. Which makes the likes of Musk backing them really off.
    Ethereum and Bitcoin are - in theory at least - able to scale via the Lightning network protocol to be able to handle millions of transactions a second. Ethereum also allows semi arbitrary code to run in the Blockchain, making it potentially a way to harness the computers doing the mining to do calculations, or to handle smart contracts.

    Monero has value too: it's a genuinely anonymous form of money transfer, and if one were doing something dodgy, it would be a good way to do it.

    Now, we can argue (and I would argue) that the market cap associated with these is still far too high - perhaps an order of magnitude in the case of Bitcoin. But that doesn't make them worthless or useless.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,591
    Delay in giving second jabs of Pfizer vaccine improves immunity

    Study finds antibodies against Sars-CoV-2 three-and-a-half times higher in people vaccinated again after 12 weeks rather than three

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/may/14/delay-in-giving-second-jabs-of-pfizer-vaccine-improves-immunity
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MaxPB said:

    Honestly, this was one of the major missing parts of life for me (and my wife). Not being able to properly live in the moment for an evening, not worry about anything, not think about anything other than existing and being with my wife in a surrounding of amazing music and people also in the moment of life has been a huge miss for me.

    We need this back in our lives all of us. An illegal house party isn't enough. I need to go to a proper late night bar with my friends, with my wife, even with my work colleagues. If the government fails to deliver that in June it would be a big failure. Every person deserves the ability to cut loose and not have to think about anything else for an evening.

    May I ask, are you vaxxed? Only reason I'm out and about is because I am (also superannuated so have been for well over a month now).

    Before that I was meeting with four or five friends, outdoors at home of one of us (bit rugged at times due to rain & cold!) and socially-distanced.

    Glad you had a good time - and good wishes & best of luck to you & yours.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169

    Delay in giving second jabs of Pfizer vaccine improves immunity

    Study finds antibodies against Sars-CoV-2 three-and-a-half times higher in people vaccinated again after 12 weeks rather than three

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/may/14/delay-in-giving-second-jabs-of-pfizer-vaccine-improves-immunity

    Well I'm on the 3 weeks model tommorow ^^;
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The market capitalization of Dogecoin is $62 billion.

    Bear in mind that, unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, there is sensible way for transaction volume to scale. And unlike Monero, there is no anonymity.

    So, it's not entirely clear why anyone would want to own Doge, except as a trade.

    It's simply a "hustle" where you sell to someone a little later who will hope to sell it to someone further down the line.

    Isn't that what they all are?

    As well as consuming an absolutely ludicrous amount of primarily coal-fuelled electricity. Which makes the likes of Musk backing them really off.
    Ethereum and Bitcoin are - in theory at least - able to scale via the Lightning network protocol to be able to handle millions of transactions a second. Ethereum also allows semi arbitrary code to run in the Blockchain, making it potentially a way to harness the computers doing the mining to do calculations, or to handle smart contracts.

    Monero has value too: it's a genuinely anonymous form of money transfer, and if one were doing something dodgy, it would be a good way to do it.

    Now, we can argue (and I would argue) that the market cap associated with these is still far too high - perhaps an order of magnitude in the case of Bitcoin. But that doesn't make them worthless or useless.
    They're all ludicrous tbh, anyway I own 1017 DOGE, 0.1 ETH and 0.004 BTC, £130 odd spent on it all.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,785

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly, this was one of the major missing parts of life for me (and my wife). Not being able to properly live in the moment for an evening, not worry about anything, not think about anything other than existing and being with my wife in a surrounding of amazing music and people also in the moment of life has been a huge miss for me.

    We need this back in our lives all of us. An illegal house party isn't enough. I need to go to a proper late night bar with my friends, with my wife, even with my work colleagues. If the government fails to deliver that in June it would be a big failure. Every person deserves the ability to cut loose and not have to think about anything else for an evening.

    May I ask, are you vaxxed? Only reason I'm out and about is because I am (also superannuated so have been for well over a month now).

    Before that I was meeting with four or five friends, outdoors at home of one of us (bit rugged at times due to rain & cold!) and socially-distanced.

    Glad you had a good time - and good wishes & best of luck to you & yours.
    Neither of us are vaccinated and I doubt many who were there are either. The government scheme is barely opening up to people our age, I have mine booked, my wife is 29 and she's still waiting for what feels like a lifetime to get her first jab.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    SNP: 46.4% (+1.3)
    LAB: 38.4% (+6.4)
    CON: 12.9% (-4.7)
    LDEM: 1.0% (-2.6)
    SDP: 0.7% (+0.7)
    SU: 0.3% (+0.3)
    REFUK: 0.2% (+0.2)
    UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)

    SNP HOLD

    Closer than Hartlepool at any rate.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    My take glancing through live blog re: NYC Dem Mayoral Debate

    > everybody talking about crime, in some fashion

    > most of the action so far seems to be from lower-tier candidates, with women making gender a talking point; Maya Wiley scored points on blog with line she'd be "first mom" to be mayor.

    > former Clinton admin alums Shaun Donovan and Ray McGuire sparring with one another, which is surprising the blog, but makes sense to me in that they are essentially competing for same vote base, so each would like to eliminate the other in order to have a ghost of a chance on primary day (not too likely)

    > Of the top three as per polling, Scott Stringer (under cloud for sex harassment allegations) "seems like a footnote" while Eric Adams has just given Andrew Yang a good punch, after AY took (some) credit for Democratic US Senate victories in GA; Adams: Yangs claim is "disrespectful and appalling to Stacey Abrams”

    > "Maya Wiley attacks Eric Adams - who at one point was a registered Republican - saying he said back in the day that Rudy Giuliani was better than David Dinkins. Adams says it’s not true"

    > Countering attack that he was a Republican, Adams notes that so was Hillary Clinton.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Pulpstar said:

    SNP: 46.4% (+1.3)
    LAB: 38.4% (+6.4)
    CON: 12.9% (-4.7)
    LDEM: 1.0% (-2.6)
    SDP: 0.7% (+0.7)
    SU: 0.3% (+0.3)
    REFUK: 0.2% (+0.2)
    UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)

    SNP HOLD

    Closer than Hartlepool at any rate.

    The start of mass Boris fatigue? Perhaps a bit too early to be sure!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    My prediction from yesterday was SNP 46%, Lab 41%, Con 10%, LD 2%, Others 2%.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly, this was one of the major missing parts of life for me (and my wife). Not being able to properly live in the moment for an evening, not worry about anything, not think about anything other than existing and being with my wife in a surrounding of amazing music and people also in the moment of life has been a huge miss for me.

    We need this back in our lives all of us. An illegal house party isn't enough. I need to go to a proper late night bar with my friends, with my wife, even with my work colleagues. If the government fails to deliver that in June it would be a big failure. Every person deserves the ability to cut loose and not have to think about anything else for an evening.

    May I ask, are you vaxxed? Only reason I'm out and about is because I am (also superannuated so have been for well over a month now).

    Before that I was meeting with four or five friends, outdoors at home of one of us (bit rugged at times due to rain & cold!) and socially-distanced.

    Glad you had a good time - and good wishes & best of luck to you & yours.
    Neither of us are vaccinated and I doubt many who were there are either. The government scheme is barely opening up to people our age, I have mine booked, my wife is 29 and she's still waiting for what feels like a lifetime to get her first jab.
    Thanks - and surely do hope that you both get your wish and get your jabs ASAP if not sooner.

    AND a free toaster!

    EDIT - you do realize, there IS such a thing as geezer guilt?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169

    Pulpstar said:

    SNP: 46.4% (+1.3)
    LAB: 38.4% (+6.4)
    CON: 12.9% (-4.7)
    LDEM: 1.0% (-2.6)
    SDP: 0.7% (+0.7)
    SU: 0.3% (+0.3)
    REFUK: 0.2% (+0.2)
    UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)

    SNP HOLD

    Closer than Hartlepool at any rate.

    The start of mass Boris fatigue? Perhaps a bit too early to be sure!
    Nah it's Scotland, the only place where Tories will vote Labour and vice versa.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction from yesterday was SNP 46%, Lab 41%, Con 10%, LD 2%, Others 2%.

    What do you have for Batley ?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NYC Dem Mayoral Debate live blog

    > "Very interesting: NONE of the candidates would require public school teachers to be vaccinated."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    edited May 2021
    Figures from Wikipedia:

    SNP 10,129
    Lab 8,372
    Con 2,812
    LD 220
    SDP 151
    Scot Unionist 59
    REF UK 45
    UKIP 39

    Maybe Starmer wishes he'd campaigned a bit more in this seat? After all, a win in Airdrie is just as good as a win in Hartlepool.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction from yesterday was SNP 46%, Lab 41%, Con 10%, LD 2%, Others 2%.

    What do you have for Batley ?
    Nothing yet, depends on the candidates. But likely to be very close between Lab and Con.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021
    NYC Dem Debate blog

    > "Every candidate has a group helping, Shaun Donovan says about his dad contributing $5 million so far to a Super PAC supporting his campaign. “Not every candidate,” Dianne Morales interjects; “Don’t get me involved in your daddy’s problems,” Scott Stringer says."

    Donovan was a big deal at the Obama White House. Surprised he would come out with something as dumb as that!

    Almost of up to Caitlyn Jenner level of political communication cluelessness.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction from yesterday was SNP 46%, Lab 41%, Con 10%, LD 2%, Others 2%.

    What do you have for Batley ?
    Nothing yet, depends on the candidates. But likely to be very close between Lab and Con.
    So Lab perhaps better value bet-wise, better odds?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction from yesterday was SNP 46%, Lab 41%, Con 10%, LD 2%, Others 2%.

    What do you have for Batley ?
    Nothing yet, depends on the candidates. But likely to be very close between Lab and Con.
    So Lab perhaps better value bet-wise, better odds?
    If Labour can't hold seats like Batley & Spen, that implies a 140+ seat Tory majority at the next election, so you decide who should really be in a position to win it...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    More NYC live blog

    > "It feels like they’re unwittingly ganging up on Shaun Donovan when we were expecting them to focus attacks on Andrew Yang."

    > "Is this the overly-coached Eric Adams who’s being told to be low-key? He seems kind of subdued tonight."

    SSI2 - real battle is shaping up between Yang & Adams on moderate side, with 3 women and Stringer competing for progressive lane; Donovan & McGuire have spent big bucks already for zero traction.


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    Someone has quickly set up a Wikipedia page for the newly-elected MP. It's unusual for someone to be elected to Westminster who didn't previously have a page.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anum_Qaisar-Javed
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NYC Debate blog

    > "Yang, is doing a good job staying above the fray."

    > "I agree. I expected this debate to be a “gang up on Yang” night – and that’s not really been the case 90 minutes into the debate."

    Sounds like a good night for Yang and also Wiley. Though Adams did get in good line re: Stacey Abrams verus Yang. Which will help him some with Black progressives who are likely not gonna give him #1 preference (prob Wiley) but might give him #2 to stop Yang.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    Someone has quickly set up a Wikipedia page for the newly-elected MP. It's unusual for someone to be elected to Westminster who didn't previously have a page.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anum_Qaisar-Javed

    They were just waiting to press the button.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Andy_JS said:

    Someone has quickly set up a Wikipedia page for the newly-elected MP. It's unusual for someone to be elected to Westminster who didn't previously have a page.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anum_Qaisar-Javed

    Shotts hired...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction from yesterday was SNP 46%, Lab 41%, Con 10%, LD 2%, Others 2%.

    What do you have for Batley ?
    Nothing yet, depends on the candidates. But likely to be very close between Lab and Con.
    So Lab perhaps better value bet-wise, better odds?
    If Labour can't hold seats like Batley & Spen, that implies a 140+ seat Tory majority at the next election, so you decide who should really be in a position to win it...
    Like I said, I do NOT bet. Not with my own money anyway!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone has quickly set up a Wikipedia page for the newly-elected MP. It's unusual for someone to be elected to Westminster who didn't previously have a page.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anum_Qaisar-Javed

    Shotts hired...
    You're on fire dude! EDIT - Or rather have fired, and hit target.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NYC Dem Mayoral Debate live blog

    > "A retired member of the NYPD, Eric Adams says he would carry a gun if he’s told there’s a specific threat against him." One blogger says this might be off-putting to some Dem voters, but my guess is that it's smart thing to point out that he IS a former NYC cop in environment where concern over crime is becoming more significant than concern re; COVID.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Andy_JS said:

    Figures from Wikipedia:

    SNP 10,129
    Lab 8,372
    Con 2,812
    LD 220
    SDP 151
    Scot Unionist 59
    REF UK 45
    UKIP 39

    Maybe Starmer wishes he'd campaigned a bit more in this seat? After all, a win in Airdrie is just as good as a win in Hartlepool.

    That's a miss for Labour. A win there and the narrative against them would have changed. Promising signs for Unionist tactical voting and SLab though.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NYC Dem Debate blog

    > "This really has been Andrew Yang as the Happy Warrior tonight"

    > Yang is "going for the really nice guy thing, Bob. It’s effective and on message. He’s the guy that will cheer the city into recovery."

    Sound familiar? Of Biden AND Boris.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,591

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone has quickly set up a Wikipedia page for the newly-elected MP. It's unusual for someone to be elected to Westminster who didn't previously have a page.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anum_Qaisar-Javed

    Shotts hired...
    Airdrie bar low.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    More NYC Democratic Mayoral Debate live blog

    > "How many times did Garcia mention her Times endorsement?"

    > "So much of the race has been dominated by Yang. [So the debate] was definitely helpful for the field."

    > "I don’t think Shaun Donovan did himself any favors, Juan. Stringer didn’t distinguish himself really either. I sometimes forgot McGuire was there."

    > "Wiley had a very strong night. Her TV skills were in effect."

    SSI2 - My own take based on the bloggery is that Yang had a good night because he was cool, collected and hardly dinged, except by Adams over Stacey Abrams. As for Adams, he didn't shine but did get make a few points, such as he's the cop. As for the rest Wiley was clearly the best, and may well have given herself a big boost; all the others were either less-than-stellar, and Donovan was positively lame.

    But as Scarlet O'Hara (maybe NOT best example for NYC Dems!) said, "tomorrow is another day".


  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    One more Live from New York!

    > "Who’s your second choice in your ranked ballot?
    Shaun Donovan: Maya Wiley
    Ray McGuire: Kathryn Garcia
    Maya Wiley: Dianne Morales
    Eric Adams: doesn’t answer
    Kathryn Garcia: doesn’t answer
    Scott Stringer: doesn’t answer
    Andrew Yang: Kathryn Garcia
    Dianne Morales: doesn’t answer"

    SSI2 = Donovan & McGuire AND Yang signalling they are really closet progressives, for the benefit of actual, out-with-it progressives who (they hope) might give them THEIR 2nd prefs.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Whenever I see "Airdrie" immediately calls to mind one of those air dryers they have in public restrooms.

    Similar to how when I used to run across name Lord Dacre (aka Hugh Trevor Roper) always thought of a place where working parents leave their kids during working hours.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction from yesterday was SNP 46%, Lab 41%, Con 10%, LD 2%, Others 2%.

    What do you have for Batley ?
    Nothing yet, depends on the candidates. But likely to be very close between Lab and Con.
    My sense (wrong last time in H admittedly) is that Labour should be much more comfortable in B&S - the Jo Cox legacy may just create enough goodwill if Labour pick the right candidate.... odds already fallen on a Labour hold. Tories will fight them for every vote which is good for democracy - I wonder whether the Cons will prioritise seeing off the LDs in Chesham & Amersham
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Figures from Wikipedia:

    SNP 10,129
    Lab 8,372
    Con 2,812
    LD 220
    SDP 151
    Scot Unionist 59
    REF UK 45
    UKIP 39

    Maybe Starmer wishes he'd campaigned a bit more in this seat? After all, a win in Airdrie is just as good as a win in Hartlepool.

    That's a miss for Labour. A win there and the narrative against them would have changed. Promising signs for Unionist tactical voting and SLab though.
    North Lanarkshire voted Yes to independence in the referendum. Although it includes a wider area than this seat so we don't know whether this represents a pro-Union swing or not. Someone might have worked it out.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021
    Interestingly, Airdrie was once part of Coatsbridge parliamentary constituency which in a 1928 by-election sent Labour Party firebrand Jennie Lee, later the wife of Aneurin Bevan, to the House of Commons.

    At 28, Jenny Lee was the Baby of the House; indeed she was not old enough to vote for herself (or anyone else) because single woman were not enfranchised until 1930. She used her maiden speech to denounce then Chancellor of the Exchequer Winston Churchill for his "cant, corruption, and incompetence"; doubtful he agreed with the substance, but could at least appreciate the alliteration!

    http://www.britainelects.com/2021/05/13/previewing-the-airdrie-shotts-by-election-13-may-2021/

    (Link was posted by Nick Palmer on a previous thred)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    edited May 2021

    Interestingly, Airdrie was once part of Coatsbridge parliamentary constituency which in a 1928 by-election sent Labour Party firebrand Jennie Lee, later the wife of Aneurin Bevan, to the House of Commons.

    At 28, Jenny Lee was the Baby of the House; indeed she was not old enough to vote for herself (or anyone else) because single woman were not enfranchised until 1930. She used her maiden speech to denounce then Chancellor of the Exchequer Winston Churchill for his "cant, corruption, and incompetence"; doubtful he agreed with the substance, but could at least appreciate the alliteration!

    http://www.britainelects.com/2021/05/13/previewing-the-airdrie-shotts-by-election-13-may-2021/

    (Link was posted by Nick Palmer on a previous thred)

    Interesting. The new MP is also 28 years old.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Whenever I see "Airdrie" immediately calls to mind one of those air dryers they have in public restrooms.

    Similar to how when I used to run across name Lord Dacre (aka Hugh Trevor Roper) always thought of a place where working parents leave their kids during working hours.

    Lib Dems pouring into Amersham and Chesham.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,812
    Pulpstar said:

    SNP: 46.4% (+1.3)
    LAB: 38.4% (+6.4)
    CON: 12.9% (-4.7)
    LDEM: 1.0% (-2.6)
    SDP: 0.7% (+0.7)
    SU: 0.3% (+0.3)
    REFUK: 0.2% (+0.2)
    UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)

    SNP HOLD

    Closer than Hartlepool at any rate.

    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide! :lol:
This discussion has been closed.