Hopefully this arcane debate will be settled inthe book I'm about to read, Governing Britain: Parliament, Ministers and out ambiguous constitution by Philip Norton
I have no desire for a Labour government, but I think the "Starmer is rubbish" narrative is fundamentally wrong. It is possible that those who want him to fail get enough momentum (excuse the pun) behind that narrative and it becomes impossible for him to shift it, in which case he is politically finished. If he does turn it round it will show he is a character of some significant resilience.
My guess is that SKS's previous jobs have not been great preparation for leading a political party -- let alone a party like the Labour Party which has spent most of its life in a state of continuous feuding.
Has SKS experienced anything like the shaming catastrophe of Hartlepool before? My guess is, in his previous jobs, he worked hard and he was rewarded with great success.
Now he is working hard and he is being rejected in a humiliating fashion. He is being ridiculed for his flags and his suits by the Left. He is being blamed for the collective failures of the Labour Party. Members of his Shadow Cabinet are either ineffectual or disloyally planning for his demise.
Has SKS experienced the levels of ridicule or dissatisfaction or even hate that are now coming his way?
Politicians lead really gruelling lives, and especially party leaders. They have to cope with loads of shit -- but in his pre-political life, SKS had none of this.
He was a hard-working, widely-admired lawyer.
SKS looks to me out of his depth, lacking the personal skills to navigate the treacherous waters of the Labour party and lacking the electioneering skills to defeat Boris and Nicola.
"Queen/King in Parliament" was and still is a device so that legally all LEGITIMATE state authority belongs to the Crown - and that the Crown transfers its powers, especially THE final say so, to the Houses of Parliament. Originally both houses, but of course the preeminent legislative power is the House of Commons, and executive power is concentrated in the Cabinet directly responsible to the Commons.
So Queen in Parliament is rather like the Holy Trinity (and may have been suggested by it?). That is (bear with me!) the Crown as God the Father (or Mother), House of Commons God the Son, and House of Lords the Holy Ghost. Or something like that.
May sound (and is) slightly bonkers. But it does provide a theoretical construct (if you have faith!) that allows for Britons (or Northern Irish if they are inclined) including Lords & Commons to bow to the Queen and her authority, while permitting Parliament to run the show.
The final say hasn’t been transferred. That’s royal assent.
Which by constitutional convention - itself a part of the law according to Dicey & etc. - is given upon the advice of the Prime Minister.
Or in devolved matters the First Minister. Ditto with her other PMs and Premiers in Canada, Australia & other Commonwealth nations where she is Head of State.
Late to the thread so just wanted to say it's another devastating Cyclefree broadside, worth reading for the style alone, and very convincing on the content.
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
The collective nappy wetting on here as the white smoke from SAGE is awaited would be funny if it weren't so utterly pitiful.
You're quite funny, sometimes.
The conversation has been overwhelmingly based on "nothing really to worry about, looks like vaccines stop serious illness from these, hopsitalisations still declining" (All right, Leon's a bit excitable, but that's nothing new. It's on brand for him)
You pop up and insist that everyone's wetting their pants and holding their breath for SAGE. I assume it's because you've decided what you want to see so you automatically see it.
It's gone from frustrating to actively amusing.
Never change, old son. I don't think I could adjust to the world where you did.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
Meaning in context that 1% to 2% is WAY more acceptable than no vax at all.
Some interesting 'helicopter' on long term demographic change and he seems (like me) to come down on the side of the Alternative Narrative, ie Labour should prioritize securing and expanding their new base rather than bust a gut chasing their old one.
Rather fudges things at the end, though, with the conclusion that what Labour really need to get back in the game are policies that will - wait for it - "make Britain richer, fairer, cleaner and more contented."
And he got paid for that, I suppose.
As a floating voter (partisans will have their own view), Corbyn Labour only showed interest in fairness - nothing about richer, cleaner or more content, and it felt very likely their policies would lead to poorer and less content.
I am not sure the govt is offering those 4 either, although I can see why some think they are.
If Starmer can convince voters like me he is offering at least 3 from 4 out of richer, fairer, cleaner, more content, with credible policies to go with it, they are on their way to a recovery.
Well the JC era was big on green too. I personally don't think governments can make a country richer. That's magical thinking. Which they encourage of course.
As I said partisans will have their own view, and all parties' partisans like to think they are green. It didnt come across to me at all, and I was listening.
Does Brexit, on average, make us poorer? If the answer to that is yes, then govts can make us richer or poorer. 2019 was a choice of two main parties offering to make us poorer.
On the margins, yes. And govermments can do stupid stuff that damages the economy for a while, eg Brexit. But if you look at long range relative real growth per capita under Tory and Labour governments you don't see much difference.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
Meaning in context that 1% to 2% is WAY more acceptable than no vax at all.
That's death. One has to factor long covid in as well, though IIRC there's also a fair bit of protection for that.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
It's Philip_Thompson - even a stop clock is more accurate than he is.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
The collective nappy wetting on here as the white smoke from SAGE is awaited would be funny if it weren't so utterly pitiful.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
The collective nappy wetting on here as the white smoke from SAGE is awaited would be funny if it weren't so utterly pitiful.
The infantility is all yours. Daddy told you that, yes, we are nearly there now. Traffic has now been held up by a crash and you are blaming daddy for the crash.
Are you saying that the Indian variant is a myth, or that it is real but we should ignore it because ignoring covid works so well whenever it is tried?
I have no desire for a Labour government, but I think the "Starmer is rubbish" narrative is fundamentally wrong. It is possible that those who want him to fail get enough momentum (excuse the pun) behind that narrative and it becomes impossible for him to shift it, in which case he is politically finished. If he does turn it round it will show he is a character of some significant resilience.
My guess is that SKS's previous jobs have not been great preparation for leading a political party -- let alone a party like the Labour Party which has spent most of its life in a state of continuous feuding.
Has SKS experienced anything like the shaming catastrophe of Hartlepool before? My guess is, in his previous jobs, he worked hard and he was rewarded with great success.
Now he is working hard and he is being rejected in a humiliating fashion. He is being ridiculed for his flags and his suits by the Left. He is being blamed for the collective failures of the Labour Party. Members of his Shadow Cabinet are either ineffectual or disloyally planning for his demise.
Has SKS experienced the levels of ridicule or dissatisfaction or even hate that are now coming his way?
Politicians lead really gruelling lives, and especially party leaders. They have to cope with loads of shit -- but in his pre-political life, SKS had none of this.
He was a hard-working, widely-admired lawyer.
SKS looks to me out of his depth, lacking the personal skills to navigate the treacherous waters of the Labour party and lacking the electioneering skills to defeat Boris and Nicola.
Sorry, but this is going to end badly for him.
Well it might end badly, depending on what you count. He has dislodged the left from its perch and created a field in which it would be possible to think about how Labour might revive and recover, following a catastrophe. he is personally electable in the sense that people who could not possibly vote Labour under Corbyn on moral grounds no longer are likely to have that objection. Far fewer people would regard a Labour government as a national tragedy and humiliation than would have been the case in 2017/2019.
If he hands over to someone who can make progress on social democrat lines perhaps that is as much as one can ask.
To be an opposition leader when there are two political geniuses in the fray, and your party isn't close to having one at all is no-one's fault. (Though for the party to have allowed no proper succession to Blair, and then elect the wrong brother, and then elect an extremist is faults enough).
5m PHE: Cases of the Indian variant of concern have shot up in the UK from 520 to 1313 this week.
Not gonna panic yet. But if I was in relatively less vaccinated Europe, I would be.
That's exponential growth. Nearly tripling in a week. In six weeks, at that rate (ie the end of June, which is meant to be when we finally unlockdown) we would - in theory - see 900,000 new cases a day
This is the inexorable and hideous logic of exponential growth. And only 25% of us are fully vaccinated.
I can easily see the government wettings its knickers, and locking us down, deeper, again (or just keeping us locked down)
How do we escape the logic of the maths? Isolate the outbreaks? It looks too deeply rooted and widely spread, to me
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
5m PHE: Cases of the Indian variant of concern have shot up in the UK from 520 to 1313 this week.
If this form of the Plague significantly escapes the protection of vaccines then we shall soon know about it; failing that, it's of minimal concern to the bulk of the country where vaccine take-up is already incredibly high and the vast majority of the vulnerable are shielded against serious illness.
If it causes local eruptions, because pockets of the country are full of refuseniks, then our various Governments will use local restrictions to stamp on outbreaks and blackmail the reluctant into getting their jabs, There will be precious little sympathy elsewhere in the country for the suffering of neighbourhoods where a lot of people are still kicking the bucket because they won't have the vaccines, and no tolerance whatsoever for collective punishment amongst the population everywhere else. The Government knows this.
I think we can therefore be fairly confident that we aren't going to slide back into lockdown.
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
Or it could change the maths on whether it makes sense to give AZ to younger people leading to us speeding up the vaccine rollout.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
This discussion has made me fish out a couple of papers on the death risk from flu in normal-ish flu years, if only to get some sort of benchmark as to what might be 'acceptable' risk levels. I haven't finished reading them, but what struck me at once is how important co-morbidities (ie preexisting conditions) are, just as with the current pox. I had not realised this.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
You're scaremongering Leon. Or is it Sean? I'm a little confused. People seem to call you by different names.
For every rabid lockdown scientist frothing at the mouth there's another (or probably ten) who remind us that the vaccines are working really well.
Even if, and it's a big if, there was an Indian surge it would not cause hospitalisations on anything like the scale you are suggesting with your mass hyperbole. Why? Because that's one of the major benefits of mass vaccination.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Yes. We are heading rapidly back to hysteria on PB and - who knows? - in the country at large. Repeat: the Indian variant is NOT vaccine resistant. Ergo, vax the young in the hotspots and keep buggering on. I hope someone - anyone - gets in front of this on QT tonight. I wish Mark Harper was on (there you go, I actually want a bloody Tory to present this, funny old world!!).
Some interesting 'helicopter' on long term demographic change and he seems (like me) to come down on the side of the Alternative Narrative, ie Labour should prioritize securing and expanding their new base rather than bust a gut chasing their old one.
Rather fudges things at the end, though, with the conclusion that what Labour really need to get back in the game are policies that will - wait for it - "make Britain richer, fairer, cleaner and more contented."
And he got paid for that, I suppose.
Can the new Labour Party change its name then as it will no longer, if it does now, represent the labouring classes?
Good point. But the Conservative Party aren't conserving much either.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
You're scaremongering Leon. Or is it Sean? I'm a little confused. People seem to call you by different names.
For every rabid lockdown scientist frothing at the mouth there's another (or probably ten) who remind us that the vaccines are working really well.
Even if, and it's a big if, there was an Indian surge it would not cause hospitalisations on anything like the scale you are suggesting with your mass hyperbole. Why? Because that's one of the major benefits of mass vaccination.
Calm down.
Thoroughly silly post. Nobody is frothing at the mouth, and it is entirely consistent to think both that vaccines work and that the new variant is concerning . And science is not done by counting scientists.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
You're scaremongering Leon. Or is it Sean? I'm a little confused. People seem to call you by different names.
For every rabid lockdown scientist frothing at the mouth there's another (or probably ten) who remind us that the vaccines are working really well.
Even if, and it's a big if, there was an Indian surge it would not cause hospitalisations on anything like the scale you are suggesting with your mass hyperbole. Why? Because that's one of the major benefits of mass vaccination.
Calm down.
Call me Leon, it's my name
The trouble is the stats don't lie. And we still have enough unvaxxed people in the country for a rampant new variant to cause MAJOR trouble.
There are, what, 30m unvaxxed Brits? 45m partly vaxxed? Add in a few million vulnerable-but-stupid vax refuseniks, and remember they will be concentrated in particular areas....
Did people hear that Ohio are using part of their covid relief funds to setup a state lottery for vaccinated residents?
Fairly genius move I think.
Yours truly suggested the same basic thing for UK less than 24 hours ago - and was ignored! Even worse, mocked!!
Heard today about some jurisdiction that was offering anyone who got a jab a free beer. More what you might call obvious genius!
As to Ohio, the Buckeye State's vac lottery is brainchild of Republican Gov. Mike DeWine (or at least his administration, which is same thing). Who is without a doubt one of the better Republican governors - by objective, not partisan or ideological measures - in the United States. And hard to think of too many Dems who are better on that score.
In fighting COVID DeWine has been one of the good guys. And he still is - more power to his arm!
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
The collective nappy wetting on here as the white smoke from SAGE is awaited would be funny if it weren't so utterly pitiful.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
The collective nappy wetting on here as the white smoke from SAGE is awaited would be funny if it weren't so utterly pitiful.
The infantility is all yours. Daddy told you that, yes, we are nearly there now. Traffic has now been held up by a crash and you are blaming daddy for the crash.
Are you saying that the Indian variant is a myth, or that it is real but we should ignore it because ignoring covid works so well whenever it is tried?
For me, the whole journey that you think you are on is one big mirage. It did not exist, it doesn't now and it never will.
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
If you're supposed to be a writer please learn the meaning of the word exponential.
There is no exponential growth of any variant in the UK. At best cases have dribbled upward by c. 7% over the past week.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
He didn’t say that did he? The risks for the vaccinated are incredibly low. Hence the phrase at no REAL risk.
Some interesting 'helicopter' on long term demographic change and he seems (like me) to come down on the side of the Alternative Narrative, ie Labour should prioritize securing and expanding their new base rather than bust a gut chasing their old one.
Rather fudges things at the end, though, with the conclusion that what Labour really need to get back in the game are policies that will - wait for it - "make Britain richer, fairer, cleaner and more contented."
And he got paid for that, I suppose.
As a floating voter (partisans will have their own view), Corbyn Labour only showed interest in fairness - nothing about richer, cleaner or more content, and it felt very likely their policies would lead to poorer and less content.
I am not sure the govt is offering those 4 either, although I can see why some think they are.
If Starmer can convince voters like me he is offering at least 3 from 4 out of richer, fairer, cleaner, more content, with credible policies to go with it, they are on their way to a recovery.
Well the JC era was big on green too. I personally don't think governments can make a country richer. That's magical thinking. Which they encourage of course.
As I said partisans will have their own view, and all parties' partisans like to think they are green. It didnt come across to me at all, and I was listening.
Does Brexit, on average, make us poorer? If the answer to that is yes, then govts can make us richer or poorer. 2019 was a choice of two main parties offering to make us poorer.
On the margins, yes. And govermments can do stupid stuff that damages the economy for a while, eg Brexit. But if you look at long range relative real growth per capita under Tory and Labour governments you don't see much difference.
My politics only goes back to the 80s but I would say for the majority of that time there has been reasonable consensus on the economy between the main parties (aside from Labour under Foot/Corbyn and to an extent Brexit Tories), so you would expect little differential, especially as the electorate generally will seek to back the more reliable of the two.
We don't have Corbynite governments to compare real growth rates with historically, I am far from alone in expecting there to be a significant differential. In the noughties Labour and Tories would argue about whether govt spending should be 43% or 43.5% as if it was a big ideological difference rather than a rounding error, it is not surprising their approaches had similar results.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Go and read what Stodge posted below - there are places were we are no where close to Herd Immunity - even you frankly wrong definition of it let alone the real definition.
Sorry but I'm talking big picture as a country, we absolutely are - and certainly will be by 21 June which is what we're talking about.
There are places like Stodge's were people have refused the vaccine. That's on them. They're not going to reach Herd Immunity if they continue to refuse the vaccine too, so its not a waiting game. It isn't right, fair or reasonable to expect the country to remain locked down just because a few pockets have refused the vaccine when offered.
If there's a surge in cases post-lockdown then so be it, we need to live with the virus. If some people die, that will be sad for them - but it will be primarily the people who refused the vaccine. It will be the Darwin Award for them.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Just to check, please: you mean in total population statistics, rather than the protection to a single individual?
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
You're scaremongering Leon. Or is it Sean? I'm a little confused. People seem to call you by different names.
For every rabid lockdown scientist frothing at the mouth there's another (or probably ten) who remind us that the vaccines are working really well.
Even if, and it's a big if, there was an Indian surge it would not cause hospitalisations on anything like the scale you are suggesting with your mass hyperbole. Why? Because that's one of the major benefits of mass vaccination.
Calm down.
Thoroughly silly post. Nobody is frothing at the mouth, and it is entirely consistent to think both that vaccines work and that the new variant is concerning . And science is not done by counting scientists.
Oh I certainly think Professor Christina Pagel is frothing at the mouth. She has been jabbering for weeks.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
You're scaremongering Leon. Or is it Sean? I'm a little confused. People seem to call you by different names.
For every rabid lockdown scientist frothing at the mouth there's another (or probably ten) who remind us that the vaccines are working really well.
Even if, and it's a big if, there was an Indian surge it would not cause hospitalisations on anything like the scale you are suggesting with your mass hyperbole. Why? Because that's one of the major benefits of mass vaccination.
Calm down.
Call me Leon, it's my name
The trouble is the stats don't lie. And we still have enough unvaxxed people in the country for a rampant new variant to cause MAJOR trouble.
There are, what, 30m unvaxxed Brits? 45m partly vaxxed? Add in a few million vulnerable-but-stupid vax refuseniks, and remember they will be concentrated in particular areas....
Hmm
Certainly the COVID variants, like the original, are a clear & present danger to the unvaccinated. Much less so to the jabbed.
Thus incentive for those not already vaccinated to get with the program. Which should be publicized that way. AND also incentive for government, businesses, schools, what-have-you to provide positive inducements, such as the Ohio lottery, free beer or (my own suggestion) a free toaster oven for coming down and getting jabbed.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
The collective nappy wetting on here as the white smoke from SAGE is awaited would be funny if it weren't so utterly pitiful.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
The collective nappy wetting on here as the white smoke from SAGE is awaited would be funny if it weren't so utterly pitiful.
The infantility is all yours. Daddy told you that, yes, we are nearly there now. Traffic has now been held up by a crash and you are blaming daddy for the crash.
Are you saying that the Indian variant is a myth, or that it is real but we should ignore it because ignoring covid works so well whenever it is tried?
For me, the whole journey that you think you are on is one big mirage. It did not exist, it doesn't now and it never will.
What the makes you think I think I am on a journey? What journey?
As the weekly vaccination statistics have been updated, I thought I'd see where we are in my home Borough of Newham in East London.
I'm using the published NIMS estimates of population:
There are 353,012 people over 16 in the Borough of whom 123,122 have received a first vaccination and 41,526 a second vaccination.
Among the 88,202 aged 50 and over, 62,763 have received a first vaccination of whom 27,209 have had both vaccinations.
Among the 17,773 aged 70 and over, 14,254 have received a first vaccination of whom 12,086 have had both second vaccination.
So, just under 35% of the total adult (16+) population have had a first vaccination.
Among those more at risk, 71.1% of those over 50 have had a first vaccination and 30.8% have had both vaccinations.
Among those over 70, 80.2% had had a first vaccination and 68% have had both vaccinations.
Put another way, 25,300 people over 50 have had no vaccination. There are a total of 230,000 unvaccinated people over 16 in the Borough so that's your target for the Indian Variant.
As a comparison, Richmond has 79,006 people over 50 of whom 65,913 (83.4%) have had a first vaccination and 37,687 (47.7%) have had a second vaccination.
Those compare with 71.1% and 30.8% respectively in Newham so it's a tale of divergent vaccination programmes. In Newham, a significant minority of those over 50 and potentially at risk have yet to receive a first vaccination and less than a third have received both vaccinations.
The more I look at these numbers, the more I think the Government has called this right - we need to unlock all together as one "Team UK" (apparently) so as much time as possible needs to be given to those areas and communities which are struggling to get the numbers vaccinated.
Arguing the case risk from the Indian Variant is only for the younger age groups ignores the fact of the 25,300 over 50s in Newham who are also currently unprotected.
Without wishing to be cruel, if people choose to be unvaccinated that is their choice and the consequences of that choice should be theirs. Not extended lockdown for everyone else.
100% this and quite frankly this point needs to be made at some point. If people think they can avoid the vaccine and be kept safe because lockdowns will be kept to keep them safe - that is not on!
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
This discussion has made me fish out a couple of papers on the death risk from flu in normal-ish flu years, if only to get some sort of benchmark as to what might be 'acceptable' risk levels. I haven't finished reading them, but what struck me at once is how important co-morbidities (ie preexisting conditions) are, just as with the current pox. I had not realised this.
That's just your ignorance, if so. The simple fact is that the overall fatality rate is around ten times larger for COVID-19. There's no way any but the looniest are going to be fooled by a "no worse than flu" narrative. Not to discourage you, because by all appearances there are plenty of carpet-biting loonies around here!
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
If you're supposed to be a writer please learn the meaning of the word exponential.
There is no exponential growth of any variant in the UK. At best cases have dribbled upward by c. 7% over the past week.
"@sailorrooscout This is fantastic! First real-world data out of Italy shows out of 37,000 people vaccinated with their 1st dose of AstraZeneca: 99% effective against severe disease/hospitalization 100% effective against COVID-related death 95% effective against ALL infections" https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1392896775942443013
Nottingham, in its best parts, is truly worthy of its moniker. The Queen of the Midlands. A beautiful city, ruined in part by planners, but this looks like an interesting step forward.
"@sailorrooscout This is fantastic! First real-world data out of Italy shows out of 37,000 people vaccinated with their 1st dose of AstraZeneca: 99% effective against severe disease/hospitalization 100% effective against COVID-related death 95% effective against ALL infections" https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1392896775942443013
"@sailorrooscout This is fantastic! First real-world data out of Italy shows out of 37,000 people vaccinated with their 1st dose of AstraZeneca: 99% effective against severe disease/hospitalization 100% effective against COVID-related death 95% effective against ALL infections" https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1392896775942443013
Yes but how quasi-effective is it? I notice they dont give you the stats on that.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
You really don't understand the point I just made? Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Yes. We are heading rapidly back to hysteria on PB and - who knows? - in the country at large. Repeat: the Indian variant is NOT vaccine resistant.
Sean 'call me Leon' Thomas seems particularly hysterical. His use of statistics is almost as wild as his use of the term 'exponential.'
The vaccination rollout is excellent. We're close to herd immunity but even if one of these alleged super smart variants were able to spread there is no evidence that they cause serious illness in the vaccinated. Furthermore, it's the most vulnerable who have been jabbed
I've long anticipated that people like Prof Pagel will be seizing on the slightest sign of infection increases to advocate lockdown extension. But we're talking piddling numbers. 2500 cases a day despite mass testing (including all secondary school children twice a week).
Covid has ceased to be an important illness in the UK. 11 so-called deaths reported yesterday, meaning deaths in which covid was mentioned at some point in the last 28 days. That compares to 450 people a day in the UK who die from cancer.
Thanks to our vaccination programme covid is rapidly becoming an irrelevance in this country.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
You really don't understand the point I just made? Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
You should shut up. Really.
Does anyone else understand his point? Beside showing us all his ass that is?
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that possible to = "at no risk".
Being vaccinated drops the risk down to being very tolerable. You can die from any reason. You can die crossing the road. You can die driving on the road. You can die playing football and getting struck by lighting. Its sad, you need to learn to live with it.
Otherwise absolutely I agree that the human race is too stupid to survive.
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
If you're supposed to be a writer please learn the meaning of the word exponential.
There is no exponential growth of any variant in the UK. At best cases have dribbled upward by c. 7% over the past week.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
You're scaremongering Leon. Or is it Sean? I'm a little confused. People seem to call you by different names.
For every rabid lockdown scientist frothing at the mouth there's another (or probably ten) who remind us that the vaccines are working really well.
Even if, and it's a big if, there was an Indian surge it would not cause hospitalisations on anything like the scale you are suggesting with your mass hyperbole. Why? Because that's one of the major benefits of mass vaccination.
Calm down.
Call me Leon, it's my name
The trouble is the stats don't lie. And we still have enough unvaxxed people in the country for a rampant new variant to cause MAJOR trouble.
There are, what, 30m unvaxxed Brits? 45m partly vaxxed? Add in a few million vulnerable-but-stupid vax refuseniks, and remember they will be concentrated in particular areas....
Hmm
Certainly the COVID variants, like the original, are a clear & present danger to the unvaccinated. Much less so to the jabbed.
Thus incentive for those not already vaccinated to get with the program. Which should be publicized that way. AND also incentive for government, businesses, schools, what-have-you to provide positive inducements, such as the Ohio lottery, free beer or (my own suggestion) a free toaster oven for coming down and getting jabbed.
Yes, exactly. It seems to me that that the Indian variant presents exactly the same risk to the unvaccinated as original classic covid.
Some interesting 'helicopter' on long term demographic change and he seems (like me) to come down on the side of the Alternative Narrative, ie Labour should prioritize securing and expanding their new base rather than bust a gut chasing their old one.
Rather fudges things at the end, though, with the conclusion that what Labour really need to get back in the game are policies that will - wait for it - "make Britain richer, fairer, cleaner and more contented."
And he got paid for that, I suppose.
Can the new Labour Party change its name then as it will no longer, if it does now, represent the labouring classes?
Good point. But the Conservative Party aren't conserving much either.
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
If you're supposed to be a writer please learn the meaning of the word exponential.
There is no exponential growth of any variant in the UK. At best cases have dribbled upward by c. 7% over the past week.
Do you understand how exponential works?
It doesn't mean "fast".
I do indeed understand it. And we don't have it.
You cannot determine whether growth is exponential based on two data points.
As the weekly vaccination statistics have been updated, I thought I'd see where we are in my home Borough of Newham in East London.
I'm using the published NIMS estimates of population:
There are 353,012 people over 16 in the Borough of whom 123,122 have received a first vaccination and 41,526 a second vaccination.
Among the 88,202 aged 50 and over, 62,763 have received a first vaccination of whom 27,209 have had both vaccinations.
Among the 17,773 aged 70 and over, 14,254 have received a first vaccination of whom 12,086 have had both second vaccination.
So, just under 35% of the total adult (16+) population have had a first vaccination.
Among those more at risk, 71.1% of those over 50 have had a first vaccination and 30.8% have had both vaccinations.
Among those over 70, 80.2% had had a first vaccination and 68% have had both vaccinations.
Put another way, 25,300 people over 50 have had no vaccination. There are a total of 230,000 unvaccinated people over 16 in the Borough so that's your target for the Indian Variant.
As a comparison, Richmond has 79,006 people over 50 of whom 65,913 (83.4%) have had a first vaccination and 37,687 (47.7%) have had a second vaccination.
Those compare with 71.1% and 30.8% respectively in Newham so it's a tale of divergent vaccination programmes. In Newham, a significant minority of those over 50 and potentially at risk have yet to receive a first vaccination and less than a third have received both vaccinations.
The more I look at these numbers, the more I think the Government has called this right - we need to unlock all together as one "Team UK" (apparently) so as much time as possible needs to be given to those areas and communities which are struggling to get the numbers vaccinated.
Arguing the case risk from the Indian Variant is only for the younger age groups ignores the fact of the 25,300 over 50s in Newham who are also currently unprotected.
Without wishing to be cruel, if people choose to be unvaccinated that is their choice and the consequences of that choice should be theirs. Not extended lockdown for everyone else.
100% this and quite frankly this point needs to be made at some point. If people think they can avoid the vaccine and be kept safe because lockdowns will be kept to keep them safe - that is not on!
This is what I am now struggling with. Are we now saying we must lockdown for the sake of those who refuse the vaccine?
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Just to check, please: you mean in total population statistics, rather than the protection to a single individual?
That's the point really. Vaccine efficacy reduces your risk by 90% or 95% or whatever. That's for a given level of infection in the population. If infection levels rise by a factor of 10 or 20 because of a new variant, you end up with the same level of risk that you started with. That's even if the vaccine is just as effective against the new variant.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
You're scaremongering Leon. Or is it Sean? I'm a little confused. People seem to call you by different names.
For every rabid lockdown scientist frothing at the mouth there's another (or probably ten) who remind us that the vaccines are working really well.
Even if, and it's a big if, there was an Indian surge it would not cause hospitalisations on anything like the scale you are suggesting with your mass hyperbole. Why? Because that's one of the major benefits of mass vaccination.
Calm down.
Thoroughly silly post. Nobody is frothing at the mouth, and it is entirely consistent to think both that vaccines work and that the new variant is concerning . And science is not done by counting scientists.
Given the wide range of action of the current vaccines, any 'new variant' which evaded them would have every right to be defined as a new virus full stop. It could happen, but there's no real reason to expect it to any more than the last 50 years when new pandemics didn't pop up.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
You really don't understand the point I just made? Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
You should shut up. Really.
Blimey. That's, erm, a sophisticated level of debate.
Seattle TImes ($) - CDC: Fully vaccinated people can largely ditch masks indoors
In a move to send the country back toward pre-pandemic life, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday eased indoor mask-wearing guidance for fully vaccinated people, allowing them to safely stop wearing masks inside in most places.
The new guidance still calls for wearing masks in crowded indoor settings like buses, planes, hospitals, prisons and homeless shelters but will help clear the way for reopening workplaces, schools, and other venues — even removing the need for masks or social distancing for those who are fully vaccinated.
“We have all longed for this moment — when we can get back to some sense of normalcy,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC.
The CDC will also no longer recommend that fully vaccinated people wear masks outdoors in crowds. The announcement comes as the CDC and the Biden administration have faced pressure to ease restrictions on fully vaccinated people — people who are two weeks past their last required COVID-19 vaccine dose — in part to highlight the benefits of getting the shot.
Walensky announced the new guidance on Thursday afternoon at a White House briefing, saying the long-awaited change is thanks to millions of people getting vaccinated — and based on the latest science about how well those shots are working.
“Anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities – large or small — without wearing a mask or physically distancing,” Walensky said. “If you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic.”
The easing guidance is likely to open the door to confusion, since there is no surefire way for businesses or others to distinguish between those fully vaccinated and those who are not.
President Joe Biden was set to highlight the new guidance Thursday afternoon in a speech from the White House.
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
If you're supposed to be a writer please learn the meaning of the word exponential.
There is no exponential growth of any variant in the UK. At best cases have dribbled upward by c. 7% over the past week.
Do you understand how exponential works?
It doesn't mean "fast".
I do indeed understand it. And we don't have it.
You cannot determine whether growth is exponential based on two data points.
So don't use it.
We don't have exponential growth of covid in the UK.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
You really don't understand the point I just made? Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
You should shut up. Really.
Does anyone else understand his point? Beside showing us all his ass that is?
Just stop talking for a moment and try to understand the very simple point I made. For heaven's sake.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
You really don't understand the point I just made? Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
You should shut up. Really.
Blimey. That's, erm, a sophisticated level of debate.
No. It's the only appropriate response to someone who pontificates about risk levels, whuile being unable to do extremely simple arithmetic.
If you're piling in on their side, what does that say about you?
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
If you're supposed to be a writer please learn the meaning of the word exponential.
There is no exponential growth of any variant in the UK. At best cases have dribbled upward by c. 7% over the past week.
Do you understand how exponential works?
It doesn't mean "fast".
I do indeed understand it. And we don't have it.
You cannot determine whether growth is exponential based on two data points.
So don't use it.
We don't have exponential growth of covid in the UK.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
You really don't understand the point I just made? Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
You should shut up. Really.
Does anyone else understand his point? Beside showing us all his ass that is?
Just stop talking for a moment and try to understand the very simple point I made. For heaven's sake.
The very simple point you made was rather too simple - given the Indian variant is a small fraction of current UK cases, we're not '1 month' from it wiping out the benefit of vaccines even if we accept it keeps doubling every week.
Moreover, you seem to assume the vaccine efficacy rate applies at a per person level rather than a population level, which is... interesting.
Some interesting 'helicopter' on long term demographic change and he seems (like me) to come down on the side of the Alternative Narrative, ie Labour should prioritize securing and expanding their new base rather than bust a gut chasing their old one.
Rather fudges things at the end, though, with the conclusion that what Labour really need to get back in the game are policies that will - wait for it - "make Britain richer, fairer, cleaner and more contented."
And he got paid for that, I suppose.
As a floating voter (partisans will have their own view), Corbyn Labour only showed interest in fairness - nothing about richer, cleaner or more content, and it felt very likely their policies would lead to poorer and less content.
I am not sure the govt is offering those 4 either, although I can see why some think they are.
If Starmer can convince voters like me he is offering at least 3 from 4 out of richer, fairer, cleaner, more content, with credible policies to go with it, they are on their way to a recovery.
Well the JC era was big on green too. I personally don't think governments can make a country richer. That's magical thinking. Which they encourage of course.
As I said partisans will have their own view, and all parties' partisans like to think they are green. It didnt come across to me at all, and I was listening.
Does Brexit, on average, make us poorer? If the answer to that is yes, then govts can make us richer or poorer. 2019 was a choice of two main parties offering to make us poorer.
On the margins, yes. And govermments can do stupid stuff that damages the economy for a while, eg Brexit. But if you look at long range relative real growth per capita under Tory and Labour governments you don't see much difference.
My politics only goes back to the 80s but I would say for the majority of that time there has been reasonable consensus on the economy between the main parties (aside from Labour under Foot/Corbyn and to an extent Brexit Tories), so you would expect little differential, especially as the electorate generally will seek to back the more reliable of the two.
We don't have Corbynite governments to compare real growth rates with historically, I am far from alone in expecting there to be a significant differential. In the noughties Labour and Tories would argue about whether govt spending should be 43% or 43.5% as if it was a big ideological difference rather than a rounding error, it is not surprising their approaches had similar results.
Yes, the consensus is a relevant factor. But I think it's generally overstated in political discourse to what extent left or right or centre policies make a difference to aggregate wealth per capita. I think governments have far more influence on the distribution of the wealth than the amount of it. This is one of the biggest reasons I dress left.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
You're scaremongering Leon. Or is it Sean? I'm a little confused. People seem to call you by different names.
For every rabid lockdown scientist frothing at the mouth there's another (or probably ten) who remind us that the vaccines are working really well.
Even if, and it's a big if, there was an Indian surge it would not cause hospitalisations on anything like the scale you are suggesting with your mass hyperbole. Why? Because that's one of the major benefits of mass vaccination.
Calm down.
Thoroughly silly post. Nobody is frothing at the mouth, and it is entirely consistent to think both that vaccines work and that the new variant is concerning . And science is not done by counting scientists.
Given the wide range of action of the current vaccines, any 'new variant' which evaded them would have every right to be defined as a new virus full stop. It could happen, but there's no real reason to expect it to any more than the last 50 years when new pandemics didn't pop up.
Is anyone saying that the new variant is vaccine resistant? The concern is its effect on the unvaccinated plus the less than 100% effectiveness of the vaccines against all variants.
Seattle TImes ($) - CDC: Fully vaccinated people can largely ditch masks indoors
In a move to send the country back toward pre-pandemic life, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday eased indoor mask-wearing guidance for fully vaccinated people, allowing them to safely stop wearing masks inside in most places.
The new guidance still calls for wearing masks in crowded indoor settings like buses, planes, hospitals, prisons and homeless shelters but will help clear the way for reopening workplaces, schools, and other venues — even removing the need for masks or social distancing for those who are fully vaccinated.
“We have all longed for this moment — when we can get back to some sense of normalcy,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC.
The CDC will also no longer recommend that fully vaccinated people wear masks outdoors in crowds. The announcement comes as the CDC and the Biden administration have faced pressure to ease restrictions on fully vaccinated people — people who are two weeks past their last required COVID-19 vaccine dose — in part to highlight the benefits of getting the shot.
Walensky announced the new guidance on Thursday afternoon at a White House briefing, saying the long-awaited change is thanks to millions of people getting vaccinated — and based on the latest science about how well those shots are working.
“Anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities – large or small — without wearing a mask or physically distancing,” Walensky said. “If you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic.”
The easing guidance is likely to open the door to confusion, since there is no surefire way for businesses or others to distinguish between those fully vaccinated and those who are not.
President Joe Biden was set to highlight the new guidance Thursday afternoon in a speech from the White House.
The Americans are now ahead of us, I think. I have said many times on here: they’ll be first out of the pandemic. And Biden will benefit.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
You really don't understand the point I just made? Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
You should shut up. Really.
Does anyone else understand his point? Beside showing us all his ass that is?
Just stop talking for a moment and try to understand the very simple point I made. For heaven's sake.
The very simple point you made was rather too simple - given the Indian variant is a small fraction of current UK cases, we're not '1 month' from it wiping out the benefit of vaccines even if we accept it keeps doubling every week.
Moreover, you seem to assume the vaccine efficacy rate applies at a per person level rather than a population level, which is... interesting.
"Moreover, you seem to assume the vaccine efficacy rate applies at a per person level rather than a population level, which is... interesting."
Yeah, that's what has me scratching my fool head also. Perhaps Chris can elucidate?
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
You really don't understand the point I just made? Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
You should shut up. Really.
Does anyone else understand his point? Beside showing us all his ass that is?
Just stop talking for a moment and try to understand the very simple point I made. For heaven's sake.
The very simple point you made was rather too simple - given the Indian variant is a small fraction of current UK cases, we're not '1 month' from it wiping out the benefit of vaccines even if we accept it keeps doubling every week.
Moreover, you seem to assume the vaccine efficacy rate applies at a per person level rather than a population level, which is... interesting.
Did you suffer from an attack of blindness when you read the parts where I hoped the figures were misleading, but that I just thought people wouldn't be so blase about it?
It's as though some people here can't even think in greyscale - just black and white. And half the time they're actually under the impression black is white ...
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Just to check, please: you mean in total population statistics, rather than the protection to a single individual?
That's the point really. Vaccine efficacy reduces your risk by 90% or 95% or whatever. That's for a given level of infection in the population. If infection levels rise by a factor of 10 or 20 because of a new variant, you end up with the same level of risk that you started with. That's even if the vaccine is just as effective against the new variant.
And you're making false assumption that that happens without the virus burning out because you've got 20x the cases so it runs out of hosts.
You're wanting to eliminate risk, that's not possible.
Seattle TImes ($) - CDC: Fully vaccinated people can largely ditch masks indoors
In a move to send the country back toward pre-pandemic life, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday eased indoor mask-wearing guidance for fully vaccinated people, allowing them to safely stop wearing masks inside in most places.
The new guidance still calls for wearing masks in crowded indoor settings like buses, planes, hospitals, prisons and homeless shelters but will help clear the way for reopening workplaces, schools, and other venues — even removing the need for masks or social distancing for those who are fully vaccinated.
“We have all longed for this moment — when we can get back to some sense of normalcy,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC.
The CDC will also no longer recommend that fully vaccinated people wear masks outdoors in crowds. The announcement comes as the CDC and the Biden administration have faced pressure to ease restrictions on fully vaccinated people — people who are two weeks past their last required COVID-19 vaccine dose — in part to highlight the benefits of getting the shot.
Walensky announced the new guidance on Thursday afternoon at a White House briefing, saying the long-awaited change is thanks to millions of people getting vaccinated — and based on the latest science about how well those shots are working.
“Anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities – large or small — without wearing a mask or physically distancing,” Walensky said. “If you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic.”
The easing guidance is likely to open the door to confusion, since there is no surefire way for businesses or others to distinguish between those fully vaccinated and those who are not.
President Joe Biden was set to highlight the new guidance Thursday afternoon in a speech from the White House.
The Americans are now ahead of us, I think. I have said many times on here: they’ll be first out of the pandemic. And Biden will benefit.
I think that is right.
The second wave seems to have been a massive psychological shock to this country. Making us willing to put up with restrictions that would never have been accepted otherwise, and a regulatory hangover that may last way longer than in other country.
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
Watch the hospital numbers.
At the moment we are almost down to below 100 admissions a day and 1000 in hospital.
If the vaccines are effective in preventing serious illness from the Indian variant then these numbers should stay low. Maybe you'd see a bit of a bump if it really runs wild among those yet to be vaccinated.
I'm furious that the government completely failed on border control again. If they'd brought in the controls earlier it would have at least slowed down the introduction of this variant, and an extra few weeks makes a lot of difference. It's about 10m more vaccine doses every three weeks at the moment.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Am too dumb and ignorant to read though all the stats & stuff, not my bag dude.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
You really don't understand the point I just made? Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
You should shut up. Really.
Does anyone else understand his point? Beside showing us all his ass that is?
Just stop talking for a moment and try to understand the very simple point I made. For heaven's sake.
The very simple point you made was rather too simple - given the Indian variant is a small fraction of current UK cases, we're not '1 month' from it wiping out the benefit of vaccines even if we accept it keeps doubling every week.
Moreover, you seem to assume the vaccine efficacy rate applies at a per person level rather than a population level, which is... interesting.
That's the definition of the vaccine efficacy rate!
As the weekly vaccination statistics have been updated, I thought I'd see where we are in my home Borough of Newham in East London.
I'm using the published NIMS estimates of population:
There are 353,012 people over 16 in the Borough of whom 123,122 have received a first vaccination and 41,526 a second vaccination.
Among the 88,202 aged 50 and over, 62,763 have received a first vaccination of whom 27,209 have had both vaccinations.
Among the 17,773 aged 70 and over, 14,254 have received a first vaccination of whom 12,086 have had both second vaccination.
So, just under 35% of the total adult (16+) population have had a first vaccination.
Among those more at risk, 71.1% of those over 50 have had a first vaccination and 30.8% have had both vaccinations.
Among those over 70, 80.2% had had a first vaccination and 68% have had both vaccinations.
Put another way, 25,300 people over 50 have had no vaccination. There are a total of 230,000 unvaccinated people over 16 in the Borough so that's your target for the Indian Variant.
As a comparison, Richmond has 79,006 people over 50 of whom 65,913 (83.4%) have had a first vaccination and 37,687 (47.7%) have had a second vaccination.
Those compare with 71.1% and 30.8% respectively in Newham so it's a tale of divergent vaccination programmes. In Newham, a significant minority of those over 50 and potentially at risk have yet to receive a first vaccination and less than a third have received both vaccinations.
The more I look at these numbers, the more I think the Government has called this right - we need to unlock all together as one "Team UK" (apparently) so as much time as possible needs to be given to those areas and communities which are struggling to get the numbers vaccinated.
Arguing the case risk from the Indian Variant is only for the younger age groups ignores the fact of the 25,300 over 50s in Newham who are also currently unprotected.
Without wishing to be cruel, if people choose to be unvaccinated that is their choice and the consequences of that choice should be theirs. Not extended lockdown for everyone else.
100% this and quite frankly this point needs to be made at some point. If people think they can avoid the vaccine and be kept safe because lockdowns will be kept to keep them safe - that is not on!
This is what I am now struggling with. Are we now saying we must lockdown for the sake of those who refuse the vaccine?
I don't think we should delay ending lockdown. I think we should follow the road map set out by the Government and I have not yet seen evidence that this should be derailed by the new variant.
But...
I think the point is well made that we are not yet at the point where everyone who wants to be vaccinated has been. Indeed it looks unlikely - in fact impossible - that everyone over the age of 18 will have been vaccinated by the 21st June when all restrictions are supposed to end.
This is fine if we are saying that people who have not yet been vaccinated can still voluntarily work from home or do distance learning. But Johnson has now announced that the work from home instruction is ending. This means that companies could be forcing people to go back into the office or universities could be ending distance learning whilst many of their employees/students have not yet had the chance to have the vaccine, no matter how much they want to.
Is it really fair to say to those people that because all the over 40s are fully vaccinated (if they are by then) that everything should go back to normal and if you catch covid then tough?
If you have chosen not to have the vaccine that is one matter and I have no sympathy for you. If, like my daughter at university, you have not been offered the vaccine and cannot have it then I would think it is reasonable for people to kick up a stink at suggestions it is all over and we can get on with life as before.
Oh and for the record I have had both jabs and will be as immune as I am ever going to be in about 14 days.
"@sailorrooscout This is fantastic! First real-world data out of Italy shows out of 37,000 people vaccinated with their 1st dose of AstraZeneca: 99% effective against severe disease/hospitalization 100% effective against COVID-related death 95% effective against ALL infections" https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1392896775942443013
So after all the negative PR, all Macron calling it ineffective, it might well be the best of all the available vaccines.
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
Meaning in context that 1% to 2% is WAY more acceptable than no vax at all.
Precisely! Glad some people can read and comprehend it properly.
We need to learn to live with this, death rates were about 0.7% to begin with ... ~5% of 0.7% is tolerable risk. We can't be locked down for Zero Covidiots thinking we can eliminate death altogether.
< There are places like Stodge's were people have refused the vaccine. That's on them. They're not going to reach Herd Immunity if they continue to refuse the vaccine too, so its not a waiting game. It isn't right, fair or reasonable to expect the country to remain locked down just because a few pockets have refused the vaccine when offered.
If there's a surge in cases post-lockdown then so be it, we need to live with the virus. If some people die, that will be sad for them - but it will be primarily the people who refused the vaccine. It will be the Darwin Award for them.
I didn't publish the Newham figures to advocate extending the lockdown. Indeed, if you read to the end of my piece, you'll see I think the Government has got the roadmap pretty much right.
Mrs Stodge and I are a fortnight from our second vaccinations and I appreciate for those who have had both vaccinations and are champing at the bit for some "normality", it looks a frustratingly long wait for that normality.
It seems to me however getting the maximum number of people fully (doubly) vaccinated is a prerequisite for a proper and permanent full re-opening of the economy and society.
The 25,300 people over 50 in Newham who aren't vaccinated are at risk. To be fair, I have every sympathy for those who for medical reasons cannot have the vaccination - it's a tiny number but they should not and must not be forgotten. For those whose refusal is for non-medical reasons my view is yours - it's their right but it's their risk and it shouldn't be mine.
We should also (and I'm sure we are) be looking ahead to autumn booster vaccinations - when and for whom are valid questions to which answers will hopefully be forthcoming. Will it be everyone or just those over 60 for example?
I think we are mostly in a very good place and I see no reason to deviate from the roadmap at this time. it may be we see increases in cases among younger people and with luck we can continue to extend the vaccination programme further down the population.
As the weekly vaccination statistics have been updated, I thought I'd see where we are in my home Borough of Newham in East London.
I'm using the published NIMS estimates of population:
There are 353,012 people over 16 in the Borough of whom 123,122 have received a first vaccination and 41,526 a second vaccination.
Among the 88,202 aged 50 and over, 62,763 have received a first vaccination of whom 27,209 have had both vaccinations.
Among the 17,773 aged 70 and over, 14,254 have received a first vaccination of whom 12,086 have had both second vaccination.
So, just under 35% of the total adult (16+) population have had a first vaccination.
Among those more at risk, 71.1% of those over 50 have had a first vaccination and 30.8% have had both vaccinations.
Among those over 70, 80.2% had had a first vaccination and 68% have had both vaccinations.
Put another way, 25,300 people over 50 have had no vaccination. There are a total of 230,000 unvaccinated people over 16 in the Borough so that's your target for the Indian Variant.
As a comparison, Richmond has 79,006 people over 50 of whom 65,913 (83.4%) have had a first vaccination and 37,687 (47.7%) have had a second vaccination.
Those compare with 71.1% and 30.8% respectively in Newham so it's a tale of divergent vaccination programmes. In Newham, a significant minority of those over 50 and potentially at risk have yet to receive a first vaccination and less than a third have received both vaccinations.
The more I look at these numbers, the more I think the Government has called this right - we need to unlock all together as one "Team UK" (apparently) so as much time as possible needs to be given to those areas and communities which are struggling to get the numbers vaccinated.
Arguing the case risk from the Indian Variant is only for the younger age groups ignores the fact of the 25,300 over 50s in Newham who are also currently unprotected.
Without wishing to be cruel, if people choose to be unvaccinated that is their choice and the consequences of that choice should be theirs. Not extended lockdown for everyone else.
100% this and quite frankly this point needs to be made at some point. If people think they can avoid the vaccine and be kept safe because lockdowns will be kept to keep them safe - that is not on!
This is what I am now struggling with. Are we now saying we must lockdown for the sake of those who refuse the vaccine?
I don't think we should delay ending lockdown. I think we should follow the road map set out by the Government and I have not yet seen evidence that this should be derailed by the new variant.
But...
I think the point is well made that we are not yet at the point where everyone who wants to be vaccinated has been. Indeed it looks unlikely - in fact impossible - that everyone over the age of 18 will have been vaccinated by the 21st June when all restrictions are supposed to end.
This is fine if we are saying that people who have not yet been vaccinated can still voluntarily work from home or do distance learning. But Johnson has now announced that the work from home instruction is ending. This means that companies could be forcing people to go back into the office or universities could be ending distance learning whilst many of their employees/students have not yet had the chance to have the vaccine, no matter how much they want to.
Is it really fair to say to those people that because all the over 40s are fully vaccinated (if they are by then) that everything should go back to normal and if you catch covid then tough?
If you have chosen not to have the vaccine that is one matter and I have no sympathy for you. If, like my daughter at university, you have not been offered the vaccine and cannot have it then I would think it is reasonable for people to kick up a stink at suggestions it is all over and we can get on with life as before.
All the under 40s I know cannot WAIT to get back to normal.
< There are places like Stodge's were people have refused the vaccine. That's on them. They're not going to reach Herd Immunity if they continue to refuse the vaccine too, so its not a waiting game. It isn't right, fair or reasonable to expect the country to remain locked down just because a few pockets have refused the vaccine when offered.
If there's a surge in cases post-lockdown then so be it, we need to live with the virus. If some people die, that will be sad for them - but it will be primarily the people who refused the vaccine. It will be the Darwin Award for them.
I didn't publish the Newham figures to advocate extending the lockdown. Indeed, if you read to the end of my piece, you'll see I think the Government has got the roadmap pretty much right.
Mrs Stodge and I are a fortnight from our second vaccinations and I appreciate for those who have had both vaccinations and are champing at the bit for some "normality", it looks a frustratingly long wait for that normality.
It seems to me however getting the maximum number of people fully (doubly) vaccinated is a prerequisite for a proper and permanent full re-opening of the economy and society.
The 25,300 people over 50 in Newham who aren't vaccinated are at risk. To be fair, I have every sympathy for those who for medical reasons cannot have the vaccination - it's a tiny number but they should not and must not be forgotten. For those whose refusal is for non-medical reasons my view is yours - it's their right but it's their risk and it shouldn't be mine.
We should also (and I'm sure we are) be looking ahead to autumn booster vaccinations - when and for whom are valid questions to which answers will hopefully be forthcoming. Will it be everyone or just those over 60 for example?
I think we are mostly in a very good place and I see no reason to deviate from the roadmap at this time. it may be we see increases in cases among younger people and with luck we can continue to extend the vaccination programme further down the population.
My concern is that it's not just your risk - the people who are refusing vaccinations are placing those who cannot be vaccinated at risk and that is a problem.
How you resolve it however is a question to which I don't think there is an acceptable answer...
"Scientists do not believe the Indian variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain. This would mean a far higher peak of infection in the summer and, as more of those who are still vulnerable catch the virus, thousands more deaths and hospital admissions."
&
"Dominic Cummings, who unsuccessfully attempted to convince Johnson to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown last September, today retweeted a message from the mathematician Timothy Gowers.
"Gowers said that if there was even a 20 per cent chance that the B.617.2 variant was far more transmissible, “the cost of another big wave is much higher than the cost of delaying the next stage of the road map. The precautionary principle is much stronger when exponential growth is involved.”
Except effectively all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and so they're not at real risk anymore. Haven't for a long time. 🤦♂️
By 21 June then all vaccines done by 31 May will be live and active.
120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing.
Can anybody still be so ignorant as still to think that vaccinated = "at no risk"?
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
PT did NOT say "at no risk" he said "at no real risk".
No pin too narrow for some people to dance on the head of, evidently!
Must be missing something? Is it that ANY risk is totally unacceptable?
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
Just try to think. Please. Just try to think.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
Just to check, please: you mean in total population statistics, rather than the protection to a single individual?
That's the point really. Vaccine efficacy reduces your risk by 90% or 95% or whatever. That's for a given level of infection in the population. If infection levels rise by a factor of 10 or 20 because of a new variant, you end up with the same level of risk that you started with. That's even if the vaccine is just as effective against the new variant.
And you're making false assumption that that happens without the virus burning out because you've got 20x the cases so it runs out of hosts.
You're wanting to eliminate risk, that's not possible.
No. You are the one making all the assumptions and assertions - for example, "120% of nothing is nothing. 200% of nothing is nothing. 1000% of nothing is nothing." And so on, and so forth.
You are the one making the assertions. I am just trying to knock a bit of caution and humility into your thick skull, by pointing out a few very obvious reasons for caution.
Or at least they would be very obvious to anyone who wasn't functionally innumerate and with the arrogance of Lucifer despite that fact!
Prediction: SAGE will now advise the Govt that further unlockdowning is too risky. The govt will look at that exponential growth in Indian variant cases, and reluctantly agree
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
Watch the hospital numbers.
At the moment we are almost down to below 100 admissions a day and 1000 in hospital.
If the vaccines are effective in preventing serious illness from the Indian variant then these numbers should stay low. Maybe you'd see a bit of a bump if it really runs wild among those yet to be vaccinated.
I'm furious that the government completely failed on border control again. If they'd brought in the controls earlier it would have at least slowed down the introduction of this variant, and an extra few weeks makes a lot of difference. It's about 10m more vaccine doses every three weeks at the moment.
It is inexplicable that, having already made this mistake once last spring they have gone and done exactly the same thing again.
Comments
Has SKS experienced anything like the shaming catastrophe of Hartlepool before? My guess is, in his previous jobs, he worked hard and he was rewarded with great success.
Now he is working hard and he is being rejected in a humiliating fashion. He is being ridiculed for his flags and his suits by the Left. He is being blamed for the collective failures of the Labour Party. Members of his Shadow Cabinet are either ineffectual or disloyally planning for his demise.
Has SKS experienced the levels of ridicule or dissatisfaction or even hate that are now coming his way?
Politicians lead really gruelling lives, and especially party leaders. They have to cope with loads of shit -- but in his pre-political life, SKS had none of this.
He was a hard-working, widely-admired lawyer.
SKS looks to me out of his depth, lacking the personal skills to navigate the treacherous waters of the Labour party and lacking the electioneering skills to defeat Boris and Nicola.
Sorry, but this is going to end badly for him.
https://youtu.be/Cuae1zcsQBc
This style of interviews are so much more insightful than the standard 5min interrupt-athon that is the standard in the media.
Or in devolved matters the First Minister. Ditto with her other PMs and Premiers in Canada, Australia & other Commonwealth nations where she is Head of State.
Aubrey Allegretti
@breeallegretti
5m
PHE: Cases of the Indian variant of concern have shot up in the UK from 520 to 1313 this week.
The pubs will stay shut. No holibobs for anyone until 2029
I pray I am wrong
The conversation has been overwhelmingly based on "nothing really to worry about, looks like vaccines stop serious illness from these, hopsitalisations still declining"
(All right, Leon's a bit excitable, but that's nothing new. It's on brand for him)
You pop up and insist that everyone's wetting their pants and holding their breath for SAGE.
I assume it's because you've decided what you want to see so you automatically see it.
It's gone from frustrating to actively amusing.
Never change, old son. I don't think I could adjust to the world where you did.
Truly, sometimes I think the human race is too stupid to survive.
But if I was in relatively less vaccinated Europe, I would be.
"Indian variant: Officials in Bolton, Blackburn, Sefton, London and Glasgow concerned over Covid strain
The rising number of cases across parts of the North West has been described as ‘incredibly worrying’"
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/indian-variant-uk-covid-strains-cases-bolton-blackburn-sefton-london-glasgow-999939?utm_term=Autofeed&ito=social_itw_theipaper&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1620930046
Any crimes, whether by paramilitaries or the state, confessed to the commission would not be prosecutable. Anything omitted would be.
Where we are today, the best of the bad options is to stop any prosecutions pre GFA, but encourage all parties to be honest about the past.
Meaning in context that 1% to 2% is WAY more acceptable than no vax at all.
Are you saying that the Indian variant is a myth, or that it is real but we should ignore it because ignoring covid works so well whenever it is tried?
If he hands over to someone who can make progress on social democrat lines perhaps that is as much as one can ask.
To be an opposition leader when there are two political geniuses in the fray, and your party isn't close to having one at all is no-one's fault. (Though for the party to have allowed no proper succession to Blair, and then elect the wrong brother, and then elect an extremist is faults enough).
This is the inexorable and hideous logic of exponential growth. And only 25% of us are fully vaccinated.
I can easily see the government wettings its knickers, and locking us down, deeper, again (or just keeping us locked down)
How do we escape the logic of the maths? Isolate the outbreaks? It looks too deeply rooted and widely spread, to me
Or am I just misunderstanding what your driving at?
If it causes local eruptions, because pockets of the country are full of refuseniks, then our various Governments will use local restrictions to stamp on outbreaks and blackmail the reluctant into getting their jabs, There will be precious little sympathy elsewhere in the country for the suffering of neighbourhoods where a lot of people are still kicking the bucket because they won't have the vaccines, and no tolerance whatsoever for collective punishment amongst the population everywhere else. The Government knows this.
I think we can therefore be fairly confident that we aren't going to slide back into lockdown.
Fairly genius move I think.
For every rabid lockdown scientist frothing at the mouth there's another (or probably ten) who remind us that the vaccines are working really well.
Even if, and it's a big if, there was an Indian surge it would not cause hospitalisations on anything like the scale you are suggesting with your mass hyperbole. Why? Because that's one of the major benefits of mass vaccination.
Calm down.
A lot of folk on here seem unhappy about the way civil liberties are being eroded on a legislative and judicial level.
But you want to control people? Instil fear in them. They will become so compliant they will forget what freedom looks like.
The trouble is the stats don't lie. And we still have enough unvaxxed people in the country for a rampant new variant to cause MAJOR trouble.
There are, what, 30m unvaxxed Brits? 45m partly vaxxed? Add in a few million vulnerable-but-stupid vax refuseniks, and remember they will be concentrated in particular areas....
Hmm
Heard today about some jurisdiction that was offering anyone who got a jab a free beer. More what you might call obvious genius!
As to Ohio, the Buckeye State's vac lottery is brainchild of Republican Gov. Mike DeWine (or at least his administration, which is same thing). Who is without a doubt one of the better Republican governors - by objective, not partisan or ideological measures - in the United States. And hard to think of too many Dems who are better on that score.
In fighting COVID DeWine has been one of the good guys. And he still is - more power to his arm!
Nottingham is considering restoring the medieval road pattern obliterated in the 1960s.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1392809546779930631?s=21
There is no exponential growth of any variant in the UK. At best cases have dribbled upward by c. 7% over the past week.
The protection conferred by the vaccine is a factor of 10 or 20.
The estimated growth of the Indian variant in the UK per week is a factor of 2.
I hope those figures are misleading. But on the face of it, that growth rate would wipe out the benefit from the vaccine in a month or so.
Please just don't be so blase about it.
We don't have Corbynite governments to compare real growth rates with historically, I am far from alone in expecting there to be a significant differential. In the noughties Labour and Tories would argue about whether govt spending should be 43% or 43.5% as if it was a big ideological difference rather than a rounding error, it is not surprising their approaches had similar results.
There are places like Stodge's were people have refused the vaccine. That's on them. They're not going to reach Herd Immunity if they continue to refuse the vaccine too, so its not a waiting game. It isn't right, fair or reasonable to expect the country to remain locked down just because a few pockets have refused the vaccine when offered.
If there's a surge in cases post-lockdown then so be it, we need to live with the virus. If some people die, that will be sad for them - but it will be primarily the people who refused the vaccine. It will be the Darwin Award for them.
Keep Calm And Carry On Jabbing.
Thus incentive for those not already vaccinated to get with the program. Which should be publicized that way. AND also incentive for government, businesses, schools, what-have-you to provide positive inducements, such as the Ohio lottery, free beer or (my own suggestion) a free toaster oven for coming down and getting jabbed.
But you being snarky and dismissive (akin to blase) does NOT persuade me you know what you're talking about.
It doesn't mean "fast".
This is fantastic! First real-world data out of Italy shows out of 37,000 people vaccinated with their 1st dose of AstraZeneca:
99% effective against severe disease/hospitalization
100% effective against COVID-related death
95% effective against ALL infections"
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1392896775942443013
You should shut up. Really.
Because Leon getting excited here on PB is generally in itself pretty exciting
Though it's really nothing to be getting excited about, based on past form, is it?
The vaccination rollout is excellent. We're close to herd immunity but even if one of these alleged super smart variants were able to spread there is no evidence that they cause serious illness in the vaccinated. Furthermore, it's the most vulnerable who have been jabbed
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
I've long anticipated that people like Prof Pagel will be seizing on the slightest sign of infection increases to advocate lockdown extension. But we're talking piddling numbers. 2500 cases a day despite mass testing (including all secondary school children twice a week).
Covid has ceased to be an important illness in the UK. 11 so-called deaths reported yesterday, meaning deaths in which covid was mentioned at some point in the last 28 days. That compares to 450 people a day in the UK who die from cancer.
Thanks to our vaccination programme covid is rapidly becoming an irrelevance in this country.
Being vaccinated drops the risk down to being very tolerable. You can die from any reason. You can die crossing the road. You can die driving on the road. You can die playing football and getting struck by lighting. Its sad, you need to learn to live with it.
Otherwise absolutely I agree that the human race is too stupid to survive.
The solution: get your jabs!
In a move to send the country back toward pre-pandemic life, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday eased indoor mask-wearing guidance for fully vaccinated people, allowing them to safely stop wearing masks inside in most places.
The new guidance still calls for wearing masks in crowded indoor settings like buses, planes, hospitals, prisons and homeless shelters but will help clear the way for reopening workplaces, schools, and other venues — even removing the need for masks or social distancing for those who are fully vaccinated.
“We have all longed for this moment — when we can get back to some sense of normalcy,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC.
The CDC will also no longer recommend that fully vaccinated people wear masks outdoors in crowds. The announcement comes as the CDC and the Biden administration have faced pressure to ease restrictions on fully vaccinated people — people who are two weeks past their last required COVID-19 vaccine dose — in part to highlight the benefits of getting the shot.
Walensky announced the new guidance on Thursday afternoon at a White House briefing, saying the long-awaited change is thanks to millions of people getting vaccinated — and based on the latest science about how well those shots are working.
“Anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities – large or small — without wearing a mask or physically distancing,” Walensky said. “If you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic.”
The easing guidance is likely to open the door to confusion, since there is no surefire way for businesses or others to distinguish between those fully vaccinated and those who are not.
President Joe Biden was set to highlight the new guidance Thursday afternoon in a speech from the White House.
We don't have exponential growth of covid in the UK.
If you're piling in on their side, what does that say about you?
Moreover, you seem to assume the vaccine efficacy rate applies at a per person level rather than a population level, which is... interesting.
As was a famous author / travel journalist who used to post on this site.
Yeah, that's what has me scratching my fool head also. Perhaps Chris can elucidate?
It's as though some people here can't even think in greyscale - just black and white. And half the time they're actually under the impression black is white ...
You're wanting to eliminate risk, that's not possible.
The second wave seems to have been a massive psychological shock to this country. Making us willing to put up with restrictions that would never have been accepted otherwise, and a regulatory hangover that may last way longer than in other country.
At the moment we are almost down to below 100 admissions a day and 1000 in hospital.
If the vaccines are effective in preventing serious illness from the Indian variant then these numbers should stay low. Maybe you'd see a bit of a bump if it really runs wild among those yet to be vaccinated.
I'm furious that the government completely failed on border control again. If they'd brought in the controls earlier it would have at least slowed down the introduction of this variant, and an extra few weeks makes a lot of difference. It's about 10m more vaccine doses every three weeks at the moment.
But...
I think the point is well made that we are not yet at the point where everyone who wants to be vaccinated has been. Indeed it looks unlikely - in fact impossible - that everyone over the age of 18 will have been vaccinated by the 21st June when all restrictions are supposed to end.
This is fine if we are saying that people who have not yet been vaccinated can still voluntarily work from home or do distance learning. But Johnson has now announced that the work from home instruction is ending. This means that companies could be forcing people to go back into the office or universities could be ending distance learning whilst many of their employees/students have not yet had the chance to have the vaccine, no matter how much they want to.
Is it really fair to say to those people that because all the over 40s are fully vaccinated (if they are by then) that everything should go back to normal and if you catch covid then tough?
If you have chosen not to have the vaccine that is one matter and I have no sympathy for you. If, like my daughter at university, you have not been offered the vaccine and cannot have it then I would think it is reasonable for people to kick up a stink at suggestions it is all over and we can get on with life as before.
Oh and for the record I have had both jabs and will be as immune as I am ever going to be in about 14 days.
We need to learn to live with this, death rates were about 0.7% to begin with ... ~5% of 0.7% is tolerable risk. We can't be locked down for Zero Covidiots thinking we can eliminate death altogether.
Mrs Stodge and I are a fortnight from our second vaccinations and I appreciate for those who have had both vaccinations and are champing at the bit for some "normality", it looks a frustratingly long wait for that normality.
It seems to me however getting the maximum number of people fully (doubly) vaccinated is a prerequisite for a proper and permanent full re-opening of the economy and society.
The 25,300 people over 50 in Newham who aren't vaccinated are at risk. To be fair, I have every sympathy for those who for medical reasons cannot have the vaccination - it's a tiny number but they should not and must not be forgotten. For those whose refusal is for non-medical reasons my view is yours - it's their right but it's their risk and it shouldn't be mine.
We should also (and I'm sure we are) be looking ahead to autumn booster vaccinations - when and for whom are valid questions to which answers will hopefully be forthcoming. Will it be everyone or just those over 60 for example?
I think we are mostly in a very good place and I see no reason to deviate from the roadmap at this time. it may be we see increases in cases among younger people and with luck we can continue to extend the vaccination programme further down the population.
How you resolve it however is a question to which I don't think there is an acceptable answer...
You are the one making the assertions. I am just trying to knock a bit of caution and humility into your thick skull, by pointing out a few very obvious reasons for caution.
Or at least they would be very obvious to anyone who wasn't functionally innumerate and with the arrogance of Lucifer despite that fact!
The Scots can afford to be smug and superior about illegal immigration. They're 400 miles from the Channel and very few people want to settle there.