The US mainly benefited, not Europe, as was predicted by many. Yet the Europeans still thought by not including financial services in a deal, they would get the bulk of this trade. Wrong.
The argument about ID cards cutting underage drinkers /smokers/gamblers is overegged as well given nearly everyone on here that supports it probably has done these things when under 18 and occasionally almost brag about it in a fond way as a nostalgic anecdote. My daughter drinks underage (she is 17 ) but is fine and balanced . We really have become a pompous bossy culture full of petty rules (cautious hugging FFS) and sometimes mean rules
Again you are coming at it from the wrong angle....
The Caledonian Sleeper is insanely expensive compared to other routes (airlines, normal trains)
Yet it is consistently sold out, even in First Class - and they have pretty crap trains, still, despite some updating
The new thing in travel is Experience, not just arriving somewhere on a normal boring plane to sit on a beach. Going by sleeper - especially on a brilliant route like Euston-Fort William - is an amazing experience IN ITSELF.
Other famous sleeper trains around the world - the Ghan for sure, maybe the Trans Siberian? - are also commercially successful. People want to have the experience
Of course it is important.
The only trouble is that to experience it I myself have to go to London. Or to what TUD would call An Gearasdan. Which rather defeats the aim.
Happy memories of eating boiled eggs and toast in the restaurant car as dawn broke over Rannoch Moor in the 1970s ...
You embark in a midge-ridden toilet of a country, where people LITERALLY eat pebbles in an essentially Neolithic environment, beset with ague, and then you wake up in the glittering, modern, hi-tech, gleaming global-city capital of England, where we keep your Queen, and store all your treasures in the Bank of England, along with your sovereignty?
What could be more exciting for a Scotsman?
Perhaps it is TOO exciting for someone advanced in years by Scottish standards, ie about 43?
As another English wiseguy once said, "The noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees, is the high road that leads him to England!"
What have I said? All I meant was that I'm living roughly halfway between the two ends of the Caledonian Sleeper run! So not much point for me to use it ...
And as for Mr Johnson - he was well known for trying to get a rise out of his Scottish chum Boswell, like (I trust) Leon is. But that was before he actually visited Scotland and found it much more to his liking than his lazy preconceptions had indicated, as he happily admitted.
Voting should be easy not hard. Making voting hard is a fraud all of its own.
Photo ID us not “hard”
Does it make voting easier or harder?
Should the electoral process be secure or not?
The most striking thing is that push the (usually Conservative) proponents of voter ID, and you pretty quickly get to what one might call the alleged Tower Hamlets scenario. Yet the proposals themselves don't really offer anything to deal with that. Which means they are being put forward for some other reason.
The blackest scenario is the quasi-GOP voter suppression one. Yet I suspect the impact on turnout will actually be marginal (although I do anticipate it could cause queues and admin chaos at some polling stations), and may well hit the elderly (and new red wall) Tory voters. So I suspect it isn't being put forward for that reason.
The two more likely scenarios are as a stepping-stone to ID cards, or simply the "something must be done" factor as a bone to Tory electioneers, with this being "something" regardless of whether it will make any difference.
A signalling device, box checking vs international recommendations and possibly a dead cat
That's the best case that can be made for this scheme, I reckon.
Much like the Freedom Of Speech In Universities bill.
An 80 seat majority, 3.5 years to go, an opposition on the ropes, a bulging intray... And this is what they come up with?
Johnson and co really are a dog who caught the car, aren't they?
It is somewhat worrying that government supporters are happy restrictions to ‘preempt’ potential problems. Where does that end?
I'm not a government support but I see a tick box exercise being implemented because it makes sense to do so.
I would argue there are bigger things that could be legislated for but everyone of my pet topics has I we don't want to impact business recovery from COVID flag against them so they aren't options.
I support Voter and photo ID based on what I experienced as a Lib Dem Leader in Woking Council in 2012 where one of my councillors was found guilty of voter fraud. We knew widespread voter fraud was going on for at least 8 years prior to this - in all parties in Maybury and Sheerwater ward - but it could never be proven because of witnesses being too scared to come forward. My own councillor, who I suspected was guilty, tried to use all sorts of intimidation to undermine me and discredit my leadership with my own party members. It did work where eventually I decided not to restand as leader of the group in 2013. However, my wife and I were proved right in denying party funds be used in his defence. I just felt sorry for the poor suckers who were fooled into funding his legal defence costs on an individual basis.
Woking was one of the pilot councils who implemented voter ID to ensure that elections were free and fair. It hasn't suppressed voter turnout and support for anti-Tory parties actually increased last week in Woking.
Four people have been jailed for electoral fraud after a local by-election in Surrey in 2012.
A fifth person was given a suspended jail term following the Maybury and Sheerwater poll three years ago.
Shaukat Ali, Parveen Akhtar, Shamraiz Ali, Sobia Ali-Akhtar and Abid Hussain, from New Haw, were charged over claims that postal votes were being fraudulently submitted.
They were all convicted of conspiracy to defraud at Reading Crown Court.
Shaukat Ali was jailed for 15 months, Parveen Akhtar and Sobia Ali-Akhtar were both jailed for nine months, and Shamraiz Ali was jailed for six months.
Abid Hussain was given a six-month prison term suspended for 18 months.
One side point I wonder re: ID cards, which I don't know the answer to, is whether the WIndrush Generation loss of records would have happened in the same manner.
I have no objection to ID cards per se, but I do object to the potential abuses they can open up. As an aid to make things easier they are fine. As a requirement to get through your daily life I would be less happy.
If the proposed IDs were NOT machine readable in any way then that would be a good thing. It would limit the usefulness of such cards to that of identity verification.
The Caledonian Sleeper is insanely expensive compared to other routes (airlines, normal trains)
Yet it is consistently sold out, even in First Class - and they have pretty crap trains, still, despite some updating
The new thing in travel is Experience, not just arriving somewhere on a normal boring plane to sit on a beach. Going by sleeper - especially on a brilliant route like Euston-Fort William - is an amazing experience IN ITSELF.
Other famous sleeper trains around the world - the Ghan for sure, maybe the Trans Siberian? - are also commercially successful. People want to have the experience
Of course it is important.
The only trouble is that to experience it I myself have to go to London. Or to what TUD would call An Gearasdan. Which rather defeats the aim.
Happy memories of eating boiled eggs and toast in the restaurant car as dawn broke over Rannoch Moor in the 1970s ...
You embark in a midge-ridden toilet of a country, where people LITERALLY eat pebbles in an essentially Neolithic environment, beset with ague, and then you wake up in the glittering, modern, hi-tech, gleaming global-city capital of England, where we keep your Queen, and store all your treasures in the Bank of England, along with your sovereignty?
What could be more exciting for a Scotsman?
Perhaps it is TOO exciting for someone advanced in years by Scottish standards, ie about 43?
As another English wiseguy once said, "The noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees, is the high road that leads him to England!"
What have I said? All I meant was that I'm living roughly halfway between the two ends of the Caledonian Sleeper run! So not much point for me to use it ...
And as for Mr Johnson - he was well known for trying to get a rise out of his Scottish chum Boswell, like (I trust) Leon is. But that was before he actually visited Scotland and found it much more to his liking than his lazy preconceptions had indicated, as he happily admitted.
Perhaps I put my Doc Johnson quote as reply to wrong post, as I thought I was making ironic retort to Leon's (semi-)ironic anti-Caledonianism.
And yet, the good (or otherwise) doctor DID mellow, after having some of the water of life poured into him. Presumably by the bucket?
I can imagine the "red wall" cares even less about that than they do about the Downing Street wallpaper.
Sadly I suspect that's true. Maybe when the realisation that the lack of tax revenue and then increased inflation leading to not so many pork barrel bribes coming to fruition will make them think.
I remain a bemused by the shouting on this one. It's all a bit hysterical.
AFAICS:
More than 20 countries in the EU have a form of national ID card. At least 10 EU countries require Voter ID at vote-casting time. One 1 EU country - Austria - has votes for under 16s.
Most of Europe seems to manage reasonable turnouts. My EU friends are baffled.
But requiring voter ID is an end to democracy in the UK, voter supression and all the rest. Presumably the country is also going to turn into a blasted desert populated by cockroaches.
Time to calm down a touch, perhaps.
I have no problem with voter ID linked to a national identity card system.
But wait... what's that coming over the hill, is it a vanity by election in Haltemprice and Howden?
I can imagine the "red wall" cares even less about that than they do about the Downing Street wallpaper.
Sadly I suspect that's true. Maybe when the realisation that the lack of tax revenue and then increased inflation leading to not so many pork barrel bribes coming to fruition will make them think.
We don't need tax revenue when we have the magic money forest
The argument about ID cards cutting underage drinkers /smokers/gamblers is overegged as well given nearly everyone on here that supports it probably has done these things when under 18 and occasionally almost brag about it in a fond way as a nostalgic anecdote. My daughter drinks underage (she is 17 ) but is fine and balanced . We really have become a pompous bossy culture full of petty rules (cautious hugging FFS) and sometimes mean rules
My daughter who is 24 would never go out without ID. Despite being 5ft 10 she is always asked for ID when buying alcohol. Young people have ID on them all the time.
I'm not going to bother joining in the "debate" over voter ID. That various PB Tories are so enthusiastic shows how dog whistle this is - which is the sole purpose of the policy.
Meanwhile in Middlesbrough the Mayor is under increasing pressure following the resignation of 5 out of 6 council executive members yesterday who demanded his resignation. They allege a whole string of errors some of which are criminal if true.
I know what is desperate - an independent directly-elected Mayor branding his now former executive as undemocratic. HE appointed them. He is independent. They are independent. This isn't party political.
Nobody outside Boro cares about Boro politics. But it is a good allegory for what happens once Labour forever areas remove them and install independents as alternatives. In Boro there are two competing groups (or "parties"!) of independent councillors, and independent Mayor, and they are fighting like ferrets in the adjacent sack to Labour members in their own sack.
The US mainly benefited, not Europe, as was predicted by many. Yet the Europeans still thought by not including financial services in a deal, they would get the bulk of this trade. Wrong.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
The argument about ID cards cutting underage drinkers /smokers/gamblers is overegged as well given nearly everyone on here that supports it probably has done these things when under 18 and occasionally almost brag about it in a fond way as a nostalgic anecdote. My daughter drinks underage (she is 17 ) but is fine and balanced . We really have become a pompous bossy culture full of petty rules (cautious hugging FFS) and sometimes mean rules
My daughter who is 24 would never go out without ID. Despite being 5ft 10 she is always asked for ID when buying alcohol. Young people have ID on them all the time.
Yes around here you order on Tik Tok and somebody drops a fake Id around for £30 for proving age and I live in Ken Clarke's old seat so hardly South Central LA. Just forget about Id cards as I have said , they are mean , petty , OCD and souless
I support Voter and photo ID based on what I experienced as a Lib Dem Leader in Woking Council in 2012 where one of my councillors was found guilty of voter fraud. We knew widespread voter fraud was going on for at least 8 years prior to this - in all parties in Maybury and Sheerwater ward - but it could never be proven because of witnesses being too scared to come forward. My own councillor, who I suspected was guilty, tried to use all sorts of intimidation to undermine me and discredit my leadership with my own party members. It did work where eventually I decided not to restand as leader of the group in 2013. However, my wife and I were proved right in denying party funds be used in his defence. I just felt sorry for the poor suckers who were fooled into funding his legal defence costs on an individual basis.
Woking was one of the pilot councils who implemented voter ID to ensure that elections were free and fair. It hasn't suppressed voter turnout and support for anti-Tory parties actually increased last week in Woking.
Four people have been jailed for electoral fraud after a local by-election in Surrey in 2012.
A fifth person was given a suspended jail term following the Maybury and Sheerwater poll three years ago.
Shaukat Ali, Parveen Akhtar, Shamraiz Ali, Sobia Ali-Akhtar and Abid Hussain, from New Haw, were charged over claims that postal votes were being fraudulently submitted.
They were all convicted of conspiracy to defraud at Reading Crown Court.
Shaukat Ali was jailed for 15 months, Parveen Akhtar and Sobia Ali-Akhtar were both jailed for nine months, and Shamraiz Ali was jailed for six months.
Abid Hussain was given a six-month prison term suspended for 18 months.
One problem is persistent official disinterest in "finding" a problem. When my flatmate had his vote stolen in Tower Hill, he was all but told to go away by the police - who didn't want to record a crime.
Another Labour figure said Leadbeater would “cut through” any attempt by rival parties to inflame a row over the suspension of the Batley grammar school teacher who showed a cartoon of the prophet Muhammad, prompting days of protests in the constituency in March.
...but isn't this a thread on voter ID? My mistake.
Well indeed. But for an issue that everyone accepts is incidental in the great sweep of life and politics it seems to be taking up quite a lot of room now on Day 2.
I remain a bemused by the shouting on this one. It's all a bit hysterical.
AFAICS:
More than 20 countries in the EU have a form of national ID card. At least 10 EU countries require Voter ID at vote-casting time. One 1 EU country - Austria - has votes for under 16s.
Most of Europe seems to manage reasonable turnouts. My EU friends are baffled.
But requiring voter ID is an end to democracy in the UK, voter supression and all the rest. Presumably the country is also going to turn into a blasted desert populated by cockroaches.
Voting should be easy not hard. Making voting hard is a fraud all of its own.
Photo ID us not “hard”
Does it make voting easier or harder?
Should the electoral process be secure or not?
Voting should be secure AND easier. Not just for some, but for all.
You can't make a horse drink, but you can and SHOULD give them a water trough.
Not sure how much easier voting can be here. We have 16 hours of voting, with no queues.
A weekend day would make a huge difference.
Possibly in the wrong direction. People have a tendency to be at home in the week, but go away for weekends. If someone has a holiday booked for a weekend then an election is called for that weekend is that going to increase or suppress turnout?
Given the 16 hours of voting there's little reason not to vote on election day.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
The UK has extra trade barriers up with four big rich nearby countries and a significant number of smaller and/or less rich (though not exactly poor) ones. Each of them now has extra barriers with one big rich nearby country. Once you acknowledge that those barriers exist, it's just counting. Which is why BoJo has been desperate to deny said barriers.
(Posted a birthday present to Irish relatives yesterday. Having to do a customs sticker- a little thing, but it narked.)
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
Voting should be easy not hard. Making voting hard is a fraud all of its own.
Photo ID us not “hard”
Does it make voting easier or harder?
Should the electoral process be secure or not?
The most striking thing is that push the (usually Conservative) proponents of voter ID, and you pretty quickly get to what one might call the alleged Tower Hamlets scenario. Yet the proposals themselves don't really offer anything to deal with that. Which means they are being put forward for some other reason.
The blackest scenario is the quasi-GOP voter suppression one. Yet I suspect the impact on turnout will actually be marginal (although I do anticipate it could cause queues and admin chaos at some polling stations), and may well hit the elderly (and new red wall) Tory voters. So I suspect it isn't being put forward for that reason.
The two more likely scenarios are as a stepping-stone to ID cards, or simply the "something must be done" factor as a bone to Tory electioneers, with this being "something" regardless of whether it will make any difference.
A signalling device, box checking vs international recommendations and possibly a dead cat
That's the best case that can be made for this scheme, I reckon.
Much like the Freedom Of Speech In Universities bill.
An 80 seat majority, 3.5 years to go, an opposition on the ropes, a bulging intray... And this is what they come up with?
Johnson and co really are a dog who caught the car, aren't they?
As I've already posted there are a whole set of bills that are in complete limbo due to "COVID". The employment bill however is one currently "blocked due to COVID" when in reality various departments are trying to convince HMRC that merging employment law with employment tax law won't reduce tax received.
I suspect a lot of the other things Boris would like to deal with (Social care being a big one) are having similar arguments.
The argument about ID cards cutting underage drinkers /smokers/gamblers is overegged as well given nearly everyone on here that supports it probably has done these things when under 18 and occasionally almost brag about it in a fond way as a nostalgic anecdote. My daughter drinks underage (she is 17 ) but is fine and balanced . We really have become a pompous bossy culture full of petty rules (cautious hugging FFS) and sometimes mean rules
My daughter who is 24 would never go out without ID. Despite being 5ft 10 she is always asked for ID when buying alcohol. Young people have ID on them all the time.
Yes around here you order on Tik Tok and somebody drops a fake Id around for £30 for proving age and I live in Ken Clarke's old seat so hardly South Central LA. Just forget about Id cards as I have said , they are mean , petty , OCD and souless
And clearly neither use nor ornament as they are faked.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's always subject to confirmation and reviews - the reviews and confirmation haven't arrived yet.
Doesn't mean it won't come. The confirmation of the 17 May unlocking only arrived this Monday, which also happened with prior steps, so its entirely possible the 21 June confirmation will only arrive on 14 June.
The argument about ID cards cutting underage drinkers /smokers/gamblers is overegged as well given nearly everyone on here that supports it probably has done these things when under 18 and occasionally almost brag about it in a fond way as a nostalgic anecdote. My daughter drinks underage (she is 17 ) but is fine and balanced . We really have become a pompous bossy culture full of petty rules (cautious hugging FFS) and sometimes mean rules
Again you are coming at it from the wrong angle....
I'm not going to bother joining in the "debate" over voter ID. That various PB Tories are so enthusiastic shows how dog whistle this is - which is the sole purpose of the policy.
Meanwhile in Middlesbrough the Mayor is under increasing pressure following the resignation of 5 out of 6 council executive members yesterday who demanded his resignation. They allege a whole string of errors some of which are criminal if true.
I know what is desperate - an independent directly-elected Mayor branding his now former executive as undemocratic. HE appointed them. He is independent. They are independent. This isn't party political.
Nobody outside Boro cares about Boro politics. But it is a good allegory for what happens once Labour forever areas remove them and install independents as alternatives. In Boro there are two competing groups (or "parties"!) of independent councillors, and independent Mayor, and they are fighting like ferrets in the adjacent sack to Labour members in their own sack.
If you look at how little news the Liverpool issues got outside issue and then remove the "can hit labour with it" element you can see why it's not even news in the western part of the Tees Valley.
It really is a local story (albeit one that really isn't surprising).
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
Are you sure they know who they are?
LOL good point. I don't want to spell it out but if I have to, they are ******* ****, ****** ********, ****** ********.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
The argument about ID cards cutting underage drinkers /smokers/gamblers is overegged as well given nearly everyone on here that supports it probably has done these things when under 18 and occasionally almost brag about it in a fond way as a nostalgic anecdote. My daughter drinks underage (she is 17 ) but is fine and balanced . We really have become a pompous bossy culture full of petty rules (cautious hugging FFS) and sometimes mean rules
Again you are coming at it from the wrong angle....
Nah - coming at it from my angle .
Nope you've just shown that the ID cards used to control alcohol sales currently don't work as they are being faked.
The fact you admit that your daughter has bought fake ID and used it to purchase alcohol isn't something I would be personally admitting in public.
And I definitely wouldn't be using it when the requirement is to confirm identification against an external system (the voting list) when you are talking about her ability to cheat a minor attribute check..
Voting should be easy not hard. Making voting hard is a fraud all of its own.
Photo ID us not “hard”
Does it make voting easier or harder?
Should the electoral process be secure or not?
The most striking thing is that push the (usually Conservative) proponents of voter ID, and you pretty quickly get to what one might call the alleged Tower Hamlets scenario. Yet the proposals themselves don't really offer anything to deal with that. Which means they are being put forward for some other reason.
The blackest scenario is the quasi-GOP voter suppression one. Yet I suspect the impact on turnout will actually be marginal (although I do anticipate it could cause queues and admin chaos at some polling stations), and may well hit the elderly (and new red wall) Tory voters. So I suspect it isn't being put forward for that reason.
The two more likely scenarios are as a stepping-stone to ID cards, or simply the "something must be done" factor as a bone to Tory electioneers, with this being "something" regardless of whether it will make any difference.
A signalling device, box checking vs international recommendations and possibly a dead cat
That's the best case that can be made for this scheme, I reckon.
Much like the Freedom Of Speech In Universities bill.
An 80 seat majority, 3.5 years to go, an opposition on the ropes, a bulging intray... And this is what they come up with?
Johnson and co really are a dog who caught the car, aren't they?
As I've already posted there are a whole set of bills that are in complete limbo due to "COVID". The employment bill however is one currently "blocked due to COVID" when in reality various departments are trying to convince HMRC that merging employment law with employment tax law won't reduce tax received.
I suspect a lot of the other things Boris would like to deal with (Social care being a big one) are having similar arguments.
Good thing to, considering my employment law exam is in less than 40 minutes.
Voting should be easy not hard. Making voting hard is a fraud all of its own.
Photo ID us not “hard”
Does it make voting easier or harder?
Should the electoral process be secure or not?
Voting should be secure AND easier. Not just for some, but for all.
You can't make a horse drink, but you can and SHOULD give them a water trough.
Not sure how much easier voting can be here. We have 16 hours of voting, with no queues.
A weekend day would make a huge difference.
Possibly in the wrong direction. People have a tendency to be at home in the week, but go away for weekends. If someone has a holiday booked for a weekend then an election is called for that weekend is that going to increase or suppress turnout?
Given the 16 hours of voting there's little reason not to vote on election day.
I was suggesting in addition not instead of a weekday. In the nicest way, you are a political obsessive so of course will find time to vote.
Are there people who work from 8-7, and cant be bothered to vote because of that, but might vote on their day off? Absolutely. Instead of moaning that the young don't vote why not give them more opportunity to vote?
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
The UK has extra trade barriers up with four big rich nearby countries and a significant number of smaller and/or less rich (though not exactly poor) ones. Each of them now has extra barriers with one big rich nearby country. Once you acknowledge that those barriers exist, it's just counting. Which is why BoJo has been desperate to deny said barriers.
(Posted a birthday present to Irish relatives yesterday. Having to do a customs sticker- a little thing, but it narked.)
My view was always that Brexit wouldn't be apocalyptic but would be more inconvenience, cost, faff than hitherto. Which, economically, has a cost, but no more noticeable to punters than 2p more on beer and fags.
Unless you are a UK fisherman, obvs. Then it's fucking noticeable.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's always subject to confirmation and reviews - the reviews and confirmation haven't arrived yet.
Doesn't mean it won't come. The confirmation of the 17 May unlocking only arrived this Monday, which also happened with prior steps, so its entirely possible the 21 June confirmation will only arrive on 14 June.
If that were the case, why not say, we're just waiting for the government to confirm that 21 June is happening?
The argument about ID cards cutting underage drinkers /smokers/gamblers is overegged as well given nearly everyone on here that supports it probably has done these things when under 18 and occasionally almost brag about it in a fond way as a nostalgic anecdote. My daughter drinks underage (she is 17 ) but is fine and balanced . We really have become a pompous bossy culture full of petty rules (cautious hugging FFS) and sometimes mean rules
Again you are coming at it from the wrong angle....
Nah - coming at it from my angle .
Nope you've just shown that the ID cards used to control alcohol sales currently don't work as they are being faked.
The fake you admit that your daughter has bought fake ID and used it to purchase alcohol isn't something I would be personally admitting in public.
Is this news? When I was growing up plenty of people had either fake ID or used their older siblings' ID.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
The difficulty with this is that the personators identify people who don't normally vote and turn up to vote for them. That is why there are relatively small numbers of tendered ballots.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's always subject to confirmation and reviews - the reviews and confirmation haven't arrived yet.
Doesn't mean it won't come. The confirmation of the 17 May unlocking only arrived this Monday, which also happened with prior steps, so its entirely possible the 21 June confirmation will only arrive on 14 June.
If that were the case, why not say, we're just waiting for the government to confirm that 21 June is happening?
They do say that: "a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government" 🤷♂️
Only once confirmation is given, probably on 14 June, has the decision been made. But they're making plans in July in anticipation of the decision being made.
The argument about ID cards cutting underage drinkers /smokers/gamblers is overegged as well given nearly everyone on here that supports it probably has done these things when under 18 and occasionally almost brag about it in a fond way as a nostalgic anecdote. My daughter drinks underage (she is 17 ) but is fine and balanced . We really have become a pompous bossy culture full of petty rules (cautious hugging FFS) and sometimes mean rules
Again you are coming at it from the wrong angle....
Nah - coming at it from my angle .
Nope you've just shown that the ID cards used to control alcohol sales currently don't work as they are being faked.
The fake you admit that your daughter has bought fake ID and used it to purchase alcohol isn't something I would be personally admitting in public.
Is this news? When I was growing up plenty of people had either fake ID or used their older siblings' ID.
Oh it really isn't - Age checks are really just token gestures to avoid trading standards hitting the landlord with a fine.
Another Labour figure said Leadbeater would “cut through” any attempt by rival parties to inflame a row over the suspension of the Batley grammar school teacher who showed a cartoon of the prophet Muhammad, prompting days of protests in the constituency in March.
Dangerous game.
A single-issue "Respect the Prophet" candidate in response could really cause Labour a headache.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
The main consequence seems to be that we have made it much harder for people to buy stuff from Europe. And many EU retail companies have had to close their mail order business to UK customers, in the same way as some UK companies have closed their mail order to Northern Ireland.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
Voting should be easy not hard. Making voting hard is a fraud all of its own.
Photo ID us not “hard”
Does it make voting easier or harder?
Should the electoral process be secure or not?
The most striking thing is that push the (usually Conservative) proponents of voter ID, and you pretty quickly get to what one might call the alleged Tower Hamlets scenario. Yet the proposals themselves don't really offer anything to deal with that. Which means they are being put forward for some other reason.
The blackest scenario is the quasi-GOP voter suppression one. Yet I suspect the impact on turnout will actually be marginal (although I do anticipate it could cause queues and admin chaos at some polling stations), and may well hit the elderly (and new red wall) Tory voters. So I suspect it isn't being put forward for that reason.
The two more likely scenarios are as a stepping-stone to ID cards, or simply the "something must be done" factor as a bone to Tory electioneers, with this being "something" regardless of whether it will make any difference.
A signalling device, box checking vs international recommendations and possibly a dead cat
That's the best case that can be made for this scheme, I reckon.
Much like the Freedom Of Speech In Universities bill.
An 80 seat majority, 3.5 years to go, an opposition on the ropes, a bulging intray... And this is what they come up with?
Johnson and co really are a dog who caught the car, aren't they?
As I've already posted there are a whole set of bills that are in complete limbo due to "COVID". The employment bill however is one currently "blocked due to COVID" when in reality various departments are trying to convince HMRC that merging employment law with employment tax law won't reduce tax received.
I suspect a lot of the other things Boris would like to deal with (Social care being a big one) are having similar arguments.
Good thing to, considering my employment law exam is in less than 40 minutes.
I'm not going to bother joining in the "debate" over voter ID. That various PB Tories are so enthusiastic shows how dog whistle this is - which is the sole purpose of the policy.
Meanwhile in Middlesbrough the Mayor is under increasing pressure following the resignation of 5 out of 6 council executive members yesterday who demanded his resignation. They allege a whole string of errors some of which are criminal if true.
I know what is desperate - an independent directly-elected Mayor branding his now former executive as undemocratic. HE appointed them. He is independent. They are independent. This isn't party political.
Nobody outside Boro cares about Boro politics. But it is a good allegory for what happens once Labour forever areas remove them and install independents as alternatives. In Boro there are two competing groups (or "parties"!) of independent councillors, and independent Mayor, and they are fighting like ferrets in the adjacent sack to Labour members in their own sack.
If you look at how little news the Liverpool issues got outside issue and then remove the "can hit labour with it" element you can see why it's not even news in the western part of the Tees Valley.
It really is a local story (albeit one that really isn't surprising).
The sad thing is that this disfunctional sack of ferrets is still more competent that the local Labour team. The latter are run directly out of the Unite office!
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's the issue all outdoor large events currently have - it's likely everything returns to normal of 21st June but no-one can be 100% sure about it.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
The main consequence seems to be that we have made it much harder for people to buy stuff from Europe. And many EU retail companies have had to close their mail order business to UK customers, in the same way as some UK companies have closed their mail order to Northern Ireland.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
Indeed it is, but its also a gain for some businesses here based on import substitutions.
It will take time for the aggregate figures to play out but the fact that we're over £10 billion better off in Balance of Payments is not something to be screaming in horror at. That the EU are over £10 billion worse off is something they can own too.
The reality is though that figure will almost certainly shrink as time goes on since its largely measuring stockpile versus unwind, so its rather meaningless.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
The UK has extra trade barriers up with four big rich nearby countries and a significant number of smaller and/or less rich (though not exactly poor) ones. Each of them now has extra barriers with one big rich nearby country. Once you acknowledge that those barriers exist, it's just counting. Which is why BoJo has been desperate to deny said barriers.
(Posted a birthday present to Irish relatives yesterday. Having to do a customs sticker- a little thing, but it narked.)
My view was always that Brexit wouldn't be apocalyptic but would be more inconvenience, cost, faff than hitherto. Which, economically, has a cost, but no more noticeable to punters than 2p more on beer and fags.
Unless you are a UK fisherman, obvs. Then it's fucking noticeable.
Except you don't need that much GDP reduction to have a noticeable effect, because the whole economy is so highly-strung. 2008 was about a 4% contraction, albeit as a burst not a slow puncture. (The Covid crunch is different, because of the correct decision to treat it as the once in a lifetime rainy day, paid for with made-up money. Since we mostly didn't feel the pain on the way down, I'm not sure that we'll feel that much economic joy during the return to normal).
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
The main consequence seems to be that we have made it much harder for people to buy stuff from Europe. And many EU retail companies have had to close their mail order business to UK customers, in the same way as some UK companies have closed their mail order to Northern Ireland.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
If the market is big enough a UK based company will start importing the products direct from Europe / China and sell them to the UK market.
Equally software will fix the issue in a whole lot of cases - Ebay / Amazon / Aliexpress and (probably) Shopify have ways of handling the cross border VAT stuff.
On trade figures, I'd say it's going to be at least a year, probably 18 months before we can actually gauge the brexit effect. There's too much short term variability in UK and EU GDP at the moment which makes the numbers very bumpy. We just posted a contraction of 1.5% in Q1, that will have an effect on importation of goods, especially with household expenditure forming the major part of that contraction and the nature of EU exports to the UK. In Q2 the economic mood music for the EU us very poor so that also has a depressive effect of EU imports from the UK as consumers there tighten their collective belts.
This pattern will make it difficult to make any judgement on what, if any, effect brexit is having on UK/EU trade for quite some time.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
The EU can only trade with the UK. That they have lost exports to us means they have no other way to export to other markets. Whereas the UK can now trade globally and our farmers and fishing fleets are now enjoying record exports and definitely aren't tied to the dock unable to trade.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
They've lost over 7 billion in net exports and about 3 billion in net membership fees we were paying to them, which they'd have kept had they engaged with Cameron seriously.
They can maybe trade with others so it will be interesting over time to compare how the UK's trade figures and EU27's trade figures trade long-term. They're unlikely to regain our net membership fees from others though.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
The main consequence seems to be that we have made it much harder for people to buy stuff from Europe. And many EU retail companies have had to close their mail order business to UK customers, in the same way as some UK companies have closed their mail order to Northern Ireland.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
Indeed it is, but its also a gain for some businesses here based on import substitutions.
It will take time for the aggregate figures to play out but the fact that we're over £10 billion better off in Balance of Payments is not something to be screaming in horror at. That the EU are over £10 billion worse off is something they can own too.
The reality is though that figure will almost certainly shrink as time goes on since its largely measuring stockpile versus unwind, so its rather meaningless.
But doesn't import substitution generally work out badly for countries that try to do it? (Are there any counterexamples?) Both as an observation in history, and because it goes against the idea of comparative advantage?
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
They've lost over 7 billion in net exports and about 3 billion in net membership fees we were paying to them, which they'd have kept had they engaged with Cameron seriously.
They can maybe trade with others so it will be interesting over time to compare how the UK's trade figures and EU27's trade figures trade long-term. They're unlikely to regain our net membership fees from others though.
I'm not sure how the membership fees relate to "border pedantry" but you know.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
The EU can only trade with the UK. That they have lost exports to us means they have no other way to export to other markets. Whereas the UK can now trade globally and our farmers and fishing fleets are now enjoying record exports and definitely aren't tied to the dock unable to trade.
Huzzah!
The UK has the possibility to sign trade deals with the Rest of the World (like CPTPP) that the EU wouldn't sign.
The EU has not gained any possibility to do that from the UK leaving.
The EU was an impediment to the UK doing its own agreements. The UK was not an impediment to the EU doing its own agreements.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
They've lost over 7 billion in net exports and about 3 billion in net membership fees we were paying to them, which they'd have kept had they engaged with Cameron seriously.
They can maybe trade with others so it will be interesting over time to compare how the UK's trade figures and EU27's trade figures trade long-term. They're unlikely to regain our net membership fees from others though.
I'm not sure how the membership fees relate to "border pedantry" but you know.
Its a serious of stupid mistakes.
Had they engaged with Cameron constructively we'd have almost certainly remained and still be paying our membership fees.
Had they engaged with May constructively we may have continued to pay EEA-style fees.
They didn't, they knew they were losing the membership fees, and they insisted upon border pedantry with a nation they have a mahoosive trade surplus with knowing full well that any damage would come on top of lost membership fees.
I fall, just about, on the opposition side to voter ID as I agree that at present the fraud doesn't seem to be serious enough to warrant it.
But I do think OGH might be mistaken in using figures for known voter ID fraud as a measure of the problem. The reason I say this is because, as he mentions, detection seems to rely primarily on people turning up at polling stations to find they have already voted.
But there is another clear way in which this fraud can be achieved without much fear of detection.
All it would need is for canvassers to note which households have said they do not intend to vote. This means that any fraud operation could then pretty safely claim to be those people with little fear of being detected. Is this a real problem? Who knows. But it is certainly a way in which it could be in issue that circumvents the evidence that OGH is relying on to say there is no real fraud issue.
Of course the answer to this is not to insist on voter ID which has other drawbacks, but to educate people not to tell canvassers that they do not intend to vote.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
The main consequence seems to be that we have made it much harder for people to buy stuff from Europe. And many EU retail companies have had to close their mail order business to UK customers, in the same way as some UK companies have closed their mail order to Northern Ireland.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
If the market is big enough a UK based company will start importing the products direct from Europe / China and sell them to the UK market.
Equally software will fix the issue in a whole lot of cases - Ebay / Amazon / Aliexpress and (probably) Shopify have ways of handling the cross border VAT stuff.
My client wants to sell products in the UK both B2B and in a small scale D2C. Setting up a UK Ltd company and selling the products to that company for onward sale is the only feasible way to operate now.
Cross-border VAT is not a problem as very little has changed. Its customs and paperwork - and if foreign companies also want to sell in NI they need to do it all twice. Once their UK company starts trading (soon baby...) it will only have the ability to import into and sell within GB. To sell within NI would involve exporting from the EEA to GB and then exporting it back to the EEA (NI).
If you are selling to Tesco that is their problem - they need to fuck around with the export paperwork to send products to their Belfast or Antrim warehouses. If on the other hand you want to sell to someone like Spar Hendersons with product imported from the EEA its far simpler to bypass GB completely.
Punters don't give a fuck about Northern Ireland - their "British" patriotism is for England. So it won't matter a jot to these Queen and country voters in the red wall that I am saying GB instead of UK. From a trading perspective there is no UK any more. And the people who traditionally would have been sad about that - and howl at the moon at the concept of Scotland going - seem delighted.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's the issue all outdoor large events currently have - it's likely everything returns to normal of 21st June but no-one can be 100% sure about it.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
For sure, I get that they don't want to commit to anything at this point, but that paragraph reads to me as though the government hasn't actually decided what is happening after 21 June.
EDIT: I mean, the government has said if all goes well then that's the end of restrictions, but I don't think they actually mean it. They are very much going to keep some things even if there is no reason to delay the 21 June stage.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's the issue all outdoor large events currently have - it's likely everything returns to normal of 21st June but no-one can be 100% sure about it.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
For sure, I get that they don't want to commit to anything at this point, but that paragraph reads to me as though the government hasn't actually decided what is happening after 21 June.
EDIT: I mean, the government has said if all goes well then that's the end of restrictions, but I don't think they actually mean it. They are very much going to keep some things even if there is no reason to delay the 21 June stage.
Voting should be easy not hard. Making voting hard is a fraud all of its own.
Photo ID us not “hard”
Does it make voting easier or harder?
Should the electoral process be secure or not?
Yes it should be. But as far as voter ID fraud is concerned it is. So nothing to fix. See my posts of the last few days where I detail out why and how. The process makes it pretty well impossible to carry out voter ID fraud over a handful of votes without getting caught.
There are plenty of other flaws in the electoral law that need fixing.
Indeed, as mentioned yesterday, I'm reading Caro's Means of Ascent and the vast vast majority of the electoral fraud that has taken place so far (in the book, and not quite at the 1948 senate results) has been around electoral organisation rather than voter fraud per se. Mainly buying votes, bribing counts and stuffing ballot boxes rather than people voting twice (though like I say, I'm not at the end of 48 race, so that might be a part of it).
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
They've lost over 7 billion in net exports and about 3 billion in net membership fees we were paying to them, which they'd have kept had they engaged with Cameron seriously.
They can maybe trade with others so it will be interesting over time to compare how the UK's trade figures and EU27's trade figures trade long-term. They're unlikely to regain our net membership fees from others though.
Again you are making the mistake of treating the EU as an homogeneous whole instead of 27 separate countries. Individually it is a tiny amount.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's the issue all outdoor large events currently have - it's likely everything returns to normal of 21st June but no-one can be 100% sure about it.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
For sure, I get that they don't want to commit to anything at this point, but that paragraph reads to me as though the government hasn't actually decided what is happening after 21 June.
EDIT: I mean, the government has said if all goes well then that's the end of restrictions, but I don't think they actually mean it. They are very much going to keep some things even if there is no reason to delay the 21 June stage.
They should just text Boris and find out
But this is my point. That paragraph sounds like they are in touch with the government. Things are clearly happening behind the scenes.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
They've lost over 7 billion in net exports and about 3 billion in net membership fees we were paying to them, which they'd have kept had they engaged with Cameron seriously.
They can maybe trade with others so it will be interesting over time to compare how the UK's trade figures and EU27's trade figures trade long-term. They're unlikely to regain our net membership fees from others though.
Again you are making the mistake of treating the EU as an homogeneous whole instead of 27 separate countries. Individually it is a tiny amount.
Not tiny, over £10 billion worse off is a considerable amount of money, even if they're five times our size.
If the UK was net over £2 billion worse off (which is pro-rata'd the same amount of money) then that would be bad news for us, don't you agree?
PS the EU have chosen to discuss this as a homogenous whole not 27. Their choice.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's the issue all outdoor large events currently have - it's likely everything returns to normal of 21st June but no-one can be 100% sure about it.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
For sure, I get that they don't want to commit to anything at this point, but that paragraph reads to me as though the government hasn't actually decided what is happening after 21 June.
EDIT: I mean, the government has said if all goes well then that's the end of restrictions, but I don't think they actually mean it. They are very much going to keep some things even if there is no reason to delay the 21 June stage.
The government hasn't decided though.
Its given an indication of what its thinking, subject to confirmation. But prior to confirmation nothing is official yet.
I fall, just about, on the opposition side to voter ID as I agree that at present the fraud doesn't seem to be serious enough to warrant it.
But I do think OGH might be mistaken in using figures for known voter ID fraud as a measure of the problem. The reason I say this is because, as he mentions, detection seems to rely primarily on people turning up at polling stations to find they have already voted.
But there is another clear way in which this fraud can be achieved without much fear of detection.
All it would need is for canvassers to note which households have said they do not intend to vote. This means that any fraud operation could then pretty safely claim to be those people with little fear of being detected. Is this a real problem? Who knows. But it is certainly a way in which it could be in issue that circumvents the evidence that OGH is relying on to say there is no real fraud issue.
Of course the answer to this is not to insist on voter ID which has other drawbacks, but to educate people not to tell canvassers that they do not intend to vote.
I have never been involved in local politics but it seems a world of egos and big fall outs. If there has been any significant collusion with canvassers to act in this way, I would be surprised someone hasn't whisteblown to get revenge.
I fall, just about, on the opposition side to voter ID as I agree that at present the fraud doesn't seem to be serious enough to warrant it.
But I do think OGH might be mistaken in using figures for known voter ID fraud as a measure of the problem. The reason I say this is because, as he mentions, detection seems to rely primarily on people turning up at polling stations to find they have already voted.
But there is another clear way in which this fraud can be achieved without much fear of detection.
All it would need is for canvassers to note which households have said they do not intend to vote. This means that any fraud operation could then pretty safely claim to be those people with little fear of being detected. Is this a real problem? Who knows. But it is certainly a way in which it could be in issue that circumvents the evidence that OGH is relying on to say there is no real fraud issue.
Of course the answer to this is not to insist on voter ID which has other drawbacks, but to educate people not to tell canvassers that they do not intend to vote.
I have never been involved in local politics but it seems a world of egos and big fall outs. If there has been any significant collusion with canvassers to act in this way, I would be surprised someone hasn't whisteblown to get revenge.
Depends if the person coming to your door claiming to be a canvasser really is surely.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
The main consequence seems to be that we have made it much harder for people to buy stuff from Europe. And many EU retail companies have had to close their mail order business to UK customers, in the same way as some UK companies have closed their mail order to Northern Ireland.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
Indeed it is, but its also a gain for some businesses here based on import substitutions.
It will take time for the aggregate figures to play out but the fact that we're over £10 billion better off in Balance of Payments is not something to be screaming in horror at. That the EU are over £10 billion worse off is something they can own too.
The reality is though that figure will almost certainly shrink as time goes on since its largely measuring stockpile versus unwind, so its rather meaningless.
But doesn't import substitution generally work out badly for countries that try to do it? (Are there any counterexamples?) Both as an observation in history, and because it goes against the idea of comparative advantage?
Indeed, school geography textbooks are full of case studies of countries that tried import substitution, fell progressively behind in technology and efficiency, and ended up pivoting to export orientation. Brazil, India, South Africa etc all current examples of import substitution leading to inefficiency. It's no surprise India's big export success in recent years has been in tech enabled services where the same barriers don't apply, or that Brazil essentially ships little more than raw materials to the rest of the world.
There are exceptions to the rule but generally when import protectionism is culturally popular and coupled with an aggressive export strategy. Like France and Italy with food and wine, or Russia's defence industry.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
The EU can only trade with the UK. That they have lost exports to us means they have no other way to export to other markets. Whereas the UK can now trade globally and our farmers and fishing fleets are now enjoying record exports and definitely aren't tied to the dock unable to trade.
Huzzah!
The UK has the possibility to sign trade deals with the Rest of the World (like CPTPP) that the EU wouldn't sign.
The EU has not gained any possibility to do that from the UK leaving.
The EU was an impediment to the UK doing its own agreements. The UK was not an impediment to the EU doing its own agreements.
I know that. When the UK left the EU it didn't impact any of the trade deals the EU had with the rest of the world. It did rip up every trade deal the UK had as part of the EU. It didn't make anything more difficult for the EU. It made a lot of things more difficult for the EU.
As for deals now being signed elsewhere for the UK that doesn't help farmers and fishermen who can only sell their product fresh. Anyway lets not go back around debating whether or not this has been bad for the fishing fleets no longer able to fish their normal areas or sell to their main markets.
For some reason I am reminded of certain scandals. "No one does X, therefore there is no problem" turns out to be "No one looks for crime X, which turns out to be quite popular really".
IIRC attempting to prosecute over the Cash For Honours scandal was ruled not to be in pubic interest. Because it would be unfair on the government - since everyone else sold honours! No prosecutions in a long, long time, though....
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's the issue all outdoor large events currently have - it's likely everything returns to normal of 21st June but no-one can be 100% sure about it.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
For sure, I get that they don't want to commit to anything at this point, but that paragraph reads to me as though the government hasn't actually decided what is happening after 21 June.
EDIT: I mean, the government has said if all goes well then that's the end of restrictions, but I don't think they actually mean it. They are very much going to keep some things even if there is no reason to delay the 21 June stage.
The government hasn't decided though.
Its given an indication of what its thinking, subject to confirmation. But prior to confirmation nothing is official yet.
No, we've been told 21 June, end of all legal restrictions (all back to normal, in other words). Obviously they want to review what happens after the 17 May changes. Fine.
But I get the feeling that end of all legal restrictions isn't going to be the end of the matter.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
The main consequence seems to be that we have made it much harder for people to buy stuff from Europe. And many EU retail companies have had to close their mail order business to UK customers, in the same way as some UK companies have closed their mail order to Northern Ireland.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
Indeed it is, but its also a gain for some businesses here based on import substitutions.
It will take time for the aggregate figures to play out but the fact that we're over £10 billion better off in Balance of Payments is not something to be screaming in horror at. That the EU are over £10 billion worse off is something they can own too.
The reality is though that figure will almost certainly shrink as time goes on since its largely measuring stockpile versus unwind, so its rather meaningless.
But doesn't import substitution generally work out badly for countries that try to do it? (Are there any counterexamples?) Both as an observation in history, and because it goes against the idea of comparative advantage?
There's a mixed bag of evidence in history. In general I agree with your principle, however many nations have gained in history from it. The USA for instance deliberately had a policy of import substitution to cut ties and reliance upon Britain's manufacturing early in its development.
The big picture here though surely is that the UK has a zero-tariff, zero-quota trade deal with the EU so if there's significant comparative advantage then the trade will still go ahead despite any border pedantry. If there's billions of pounds in substitution (which I expect long-term once the stockpiling/unwind has rolled out of the system) based upon border pedantry alone and not because of tariffs or quotas then that seems significant.
Plus as the UK rolls out more trade deals in the future (eg CPTPP) we'll gain more based upon comparative advantage too.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
The main consequence seems to be that we have made it much harder for people to buy stuff from Europe. And many EU retail companies have had to close their mail order business to UK customers, in the same way as some UK companies have closed their mail order to Northern Ireland.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
Indeed it is, but its also a gain for some businesses here based on import substitutions.
It will take time for the aggregate figures to play out but the fact that we're over £10 billion better off in Balance of Payments is not something to be screaming in horror at. That the EU are over £10 billion worse off is something they can own too.
The reality is though that figure will almost certainly shrink as time goes on since its largely measuring stockpile versus unwind, so its rather meaningless.
But doesn't import substitution generally work out badly for countries that try to do it? (Are there any counterexamples?) Both as an observation in history, and because it goes against the idea of comparative advantage?
Indeed, school geography textbooks are full of case studies of countries that tried import substitution, fell progressively behind in technology and efficiency, and ended up pivoting to export orientation. Brazil, India, South Africa etc all current examples of import substitution leading to inefficiency. It's no surprise India's big export success in recent years has been in tech enabled services where the same barriers don't apply, or that Brazil essentially ships little more than raw materials to the rest of the world.
There are exceptions to the rule but generally when import protectionism is culturally popular and coupled with an aggressive export strategy. Like France and Italy with food and wine, or Russia's defence industry.
Actually, historically, it worked well. The United States is the best examples. Its industries were built up behind a wall of protectionism. Same goes for Germany pre-World War 1. South Korea is a classic example post-World War 2, as is Japan. In fact, it might be argued the UK is another example, given the height of its economic supremacy was pre-the 1850s. From that base, you can expand aggressively overseas but need a strong domestic base.
The examples you gave didn't work well because the commitment / Government infrastructures / plain old corruption meant it morphed into something else, namely cronyism. However, when properly applied, protectionism, rather than free market, helps build up industries.
I fall, just about, on the opposition side to voter ID as I agree that at present the fraud doesn't seem to be serious enough to warrant it.
But I do think OGH might be mistaken in using figures for known voter ID fraud as a measure of the problem. The reason I say this is because, as he mentions, detection seems to rely primarily on people turning up at polling stations to find they have already voted.
But there is another clear way in which this fraud can be achieved without much fear of detection.
All it would need is for canvassers to note which households have said they do not intend to vote. This means that any fraud operation could then pretty safely claim to be those people with little fear of being detected. Is this a real problem? Who knows. But it is certainly a way in which it could be in issue that circumvents the evidence that OGH is relying on to say there is no real fraud issue.
Of course the answer to this is not to insist on voter ID which has other drawbacks, but to educate people not to tell canvassers that they do not intend to vote.
I have never been involved in local politics but it seems a world of egos and big fall outs. If there has been any significant collusion with canvassers to act in this way, I would be surprised someone hasn't whisteblown to get revenge.
Depends if the person coming to your door claiming to be a canvasser really is surely.
Why tell the canvasser? Just have a checkbox for "not going to vote".
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
"I wonder, which side of the Channel is looking at those numbers and gnashing its teeth more?"
I didn't make that remark but yes the UK side of the Channel has seen a massive net over £10 billion improvement in its balance of payments - and the other side has seen a massive net over £10 billion deterioration.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
I agree it's far too early to make judgements and I didn't say you had said that. I said a fucking idiot had said that. I did say "idiots" and I may easily be wrong but can't be bothered to go through every post.
The only idiots are the EU that insisted upon border pedantry and are now billions worse off. We'll see how it plays out in the future.
Why are the EU billions worse off? Surely they can simply trade with other people instead, the same way we supposedly can?
The EU can only trade with the UK. That they have lost exports to us means they have no other way to export to other markets. Whereas the UK can now trade globally and our farmers and fishing fleets are now enjoying record exports and definitely aren't tied to the dock unable to trade.
Huzzah!
The UK has the possibility to sign trade deals with the Rest of the World (like CPTPP) that the EU wouldn't sign.
The EU has not gained any possibility to do that from the UK leaving.
The EU was an impediment to the UK doing its own agreements. The UK was not an impediment to the EU doing its own agreements.
I know that. When the UK left the EU it didn't impact any of the trade deals the EU had with the rest of the world. It did rip up every trade deal the UK had as part of the EU. It didn't make anything more difficult for the EU. It made a lot of things more difficult for the EU.
As for deals now being signed elsewhere for the UK that doesn't help farmers and fishermen who can only sell their product fresh. Anyway lets not go back around debating whether or not this has been bad for the fishing fleets no longer able to fish their normal areas or sell to their main markets.
I care as little about agriculture as I do about Northern Ireland.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's the issue all outdoor large events currently have - it's likely everything returns to normal of 21st June but no-one can be 100% sure about it.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
For sure, I get that they don't want to commit to anything at this point, but that paragraph reads to me as though the government hasn't actually decided what is happening after 21 June.
EDIT: I mean, the government has said if all goes well then that's the end of restrictions, but I don't think they actually mean it. They are very much going to keep some things even if there is no reason to delay the 21 June stage.
The government hasn't decided though.
Its given an indication of what its thinking, subject to confirmation. But prior to confirmation nothing is official yet.
No, we've been told 21 June, end of all legal restrictions (all back to normal, in other words). Obviously they want to review what happens after the 17 May changes. Fine.
But I get the feeling that end of all legal restrictions isn't going to be the end of the matter.
They've literally said all along there will be a review on social distancing and whether that will continue to be advised once the legal restrictions have been removed.
What part of that is confusing you? That's all in public domain. No decision is made yet, so they're just parroting what the government has said for months now.
On the import/export numbers - I see the fucking idiots (you know who you are) are saying - aha! The EU have imported less from the UK so they must be hurting...who's laughing now...etc.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
I haven't seen a single person make that remark, who are you referring to.
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
The main consequence seems to be that we have made it much harder for people to buy stuff from Europe. And many EU retail companies have had to close their mail order business to UK customers, in the same way as some UK companies have closed their mail order to Northern Ireland.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
Indeed it is, but its also a gain for some businesses here based on import substitutions.
It will take time for the aggregate figures to play out but the fact that we're over £10 billion better off in Balance of Payments is not something to be screaming in horror at. That the EU are over £10 billion worse off is something they can own too.
The reality is though that figure will almost certainly shrink as time goes on since its largely measuring stockpile versus unwind, so its rather meaningless.
But doesn't import substitution generally work out badly for countries that try to do it? (Are there any counterexamples?) Both as an observation in history, and because it goes against the idea of comparative advantage?
Indeed, school geography textbooks are full of case studies of countries that tried import substitution, fell progressively behind in technology and efficiency, and ended up pivoting to export orientation. Brazil, India, South Africa etc all current examples of import substitution leading to inefficiency. It's no surprise India's big export success in recent years has been in tech enabled services where the same barriers don't apply, or that Brazil essentially ships little more than raw materials to the rest of the world.
There are exceptions to the rule but generally when import protectionism is culturally popular and coupled with an aggressive export strategy. Like France and Italy with food and wine, or Russia's defence industry.
But the UK isn't going protectionist. There are no tariffs and no quotas, so we're doing the free trade exporting.
The EU's border pedantry is petty and pathetic but what they've decided upon. If that results in import substitutions then there can't have been that much competitive advantage there to lose and we've gained from the substitutions. If there's significant competitive advantage then our zero-tariff, zero-quota deal will trump any petty border pedantry.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's the issue all outdoor large events currently have - it's likely everything returns to normal of 21st June but no-one can be 100% sure about it.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
For sure, I get that they don't want to commit to anything at this point, but that paragraph reads to me as though the government hasn't actually decided what is happening after 21 June.
EDIT: I mean, the government has said if all goes well then that's the end of restrictions, but I don't think they actually mean it. They are very much going to keep some things even if there is no reason to delay the 21 June stage.
The government hasn't decided though.
Its given an indication of what its thinking, subject to confirmation. But prior to confirmation nothing is official yet.
No, we've been told 21 June, end of all legal restrictions (all back to normal, in other words). Obviously they want to review what happens after the 17 May changes. Fine.
But I get the feeling that end of all legal restrictions isn't going to be the end of the matter.
They've literally said all along there will be a review on social distancing and whether that will continue to be advised once the legal restrictions have been removed.
What part of that is confusing you? That's all in public domain. No decision is made yet, so they're just parroting what the government has said for months now.
Nah, load of bollocks. The Indian variant may actually have better binding efficiency to antibodies than the existing Kent one. In a vaccinated country this variant is not going to cause a surge in hospitalisations, and that's the ultimate justification for lockdowns being extended. This is zero COVID chumps trying to have one final push.
Also independent SAGE. Lol. They're literally zero COVID zealots who would have everyone locked away forever in case some 97 year old dies a year after getting COVID.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
That's the issue all outdoor large events currently have - it's likely everything returns to normal of 21st June but no-one can be 100% sure about it.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
Lack of clarity is starting to become a big problem. Brighton Pride –– schedule for August (!) – has been cancelled because government has failed to either a) give clarity on the the rules or b) underwrite the event. If they don't want to do a) they should do b). Ideally, they'd do both.
I fall, just about, on the opposition side to voter ID as I agree that at present the fraud doesn't seem to be serious enough to warrant it.
But I do think OGH might be mistaken in using figures for known voter ID fraud as a measure of the problem. The reason I say this is because, as he mentions, detection seems to rely primarily on people turning up at polling stations to find they have already voted.
But there is another clear way in which this fraud can be achieved without much fear of detection.
All it would need is for canvassers to note which households have said they do not intend to vote. This means that any fraud operation could then pretty safely claim to be those people with little fear of being detected. Is this a real problem? Who knows. But it is certainly a way in which it could be in issue that circumvents the evidence that OGH is relying on to say there is no real fraud issue.
Of course the answer to this is not to insist on voter ID which has other drawbacks, but to educate people not to tell canvassers that they do not intend to vote.
Hi Richard, I covered this the other day. This is a very inefficient way of committing voter id fraud. I covered the 2 methods of doing so yesterday. I am aware of one case decades ago. I suspect it was more prevalent in the distant past. It is very difficult to pull off as you need a lot of people, who are unknown, to go vote pretending to be those who are absent. So the fraud is usually only a handful of votes and you are likely to get caught (already voted, person you are pretending to be is known) as you have to take the risk for each vote and you have to use a different person to cast the vote so a team of 20 will only garner 20 votes and if you have 20 people doing it soon becomes apparent to others what is going on. There is a mechanism of allowing parties to put an agent in the polling station and challenge voters. We were aware of this likely to happen at a particular polling station. 2 voters were challenged. One did a runner, but the police were not interested as they didn't get a chance to vote. The other was genuine, but who said they were going to be away to our canvassers.
One of the biggest problems was the police not being interested. The Sheerwater and then later Maybury and Sheerwater example was well known to everyone. It had been going on for years. None of it condoned by the parties. All parties had won it at some stage. I suspect the result in each case was due to the efficiency of deception, but all the later examples were not a case of voter id at the polling station and lack of police interest. Eventually they did something.
Nah, load of bollocks. The Indian variant may actually have better binding efficiency to antibodies than the existing Kent one. In a vaccinated country this variant is not going to cause a surge in hospitalisations, and that's the ultimate justification for lockdowns being extended. This is zero COVID chumps trying to have one final push.
Also independent SAGE. Lol. They're literally zero COVID zealots who would have everyone locked away forever in case some 97 year old dies a year after getting COVID.
Given we're already vaccination thirty-somethings around the nation we should however surge vaccinations in the few areas where this is spreading.
If everyone in Bolton etc has been offered their vaccine by end May then any more spread will be because people have chosen to decline the vaccine. Their own damn fault.
Good old 'Independent Sage' again. The article specifically suggest that it doesn't look like like the Indian variant will escape the vaccines (less so even than the SA variant). It also picks out schools (not vaccinated) and care homes (likely less protected even after vaccination) and no mention of cases vs ill vs severely ill vs hospital vs death.
We must expect cases to rise as we open up - the true measure must be are people getting ill enough to need hospital care and/or dying. If no, then we keep vaccinating and keep opening up.
Comments
And as for Mr Johnson - he was well known for trying to get a rise out of his Scottish chum Boswell, like (I trust) Leon is. But that was before he actually visited Scotland and found it much more to his liking than his lazy preconceptions had indicated, as he happily admitted.
Much like the Freedom Of Speech In Universities bill.
An 80 seat majority, 3.5 years to go, an opposition on the ropes, a bulging intray... And this is what they come up with?
Johnson and co really are a dog who caught the car, aren't they?
I would argue there are bigger things that could be legislated for but everyone of my pet topics has I we don't want to impact business recovery from COVID flag against them so they aren't options.
If the proposed IDs were NOT machine readable in any way then that would be a good thing. It would limit the usefulness of such cards to that of identity verification.
And yet, the good (or otherwise) doctor DID mellow, after having some of the water of life poured into him. Presumably by the bucket?
But wait... what's that coming over the hill, is it a vanity by election in Haltemprice and Howden?
Meanwhile in Middlesbrough the Mayor is under increasing pressure following the resignation of 5 out of 6 council executive members yesterday who demanded his resignation. They allege a whole string of errors some of which are criminal if true.
"I won't go" says the Mayor https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/i-wont-quit-mayor-hits-20575947. "Mr Preston said the attempts to oust him were 'desperate' and driven by 'undemocratic' attempts by his political rivals to take power."
I know what is desperate - an independent directly-elected Mayor branding his now former executive as undemocratic. HE appointed them. He is independent. They are independent. This isn't party political.
Nobody outside Boro cares about Boro politics. But it is a good allegory for what happens once Labour forever areas remove them and install independents as alternatives. In Boro there are two competing groups (or "parties"!) of independent councillors, and independent Mayor, and they are fighting like ferrets in the adjacent sack to Labour members in their own sack.
Just like we did when we were members and we compared our trade figures with those of Germany and Spain. ie never.
"The EU" is 27 countries so individually the increase or decrease in trade terms with the UK is barely a rounding error.
then https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/apr/05/uk.localgovernment
Overnight it became "Voting is fraud is rare".
One problem is persistent official disinterest in "finding" a problem. When my flatmate had his vote stolen in Tower Hill, he was all but told to go away by the police - who didn't want to record a crime.
Another Labour figure said Leadbeater would “cut through” any attempt by rival parties to inflame a row over the suspension of the Batley grammar school teacher who showed a cartoon of the prophet Muhammad, prompting days of protests in the constituency in March.
Dangerous game.
Friends are also baffled about that one.
Given the 16 hours of voting there's little reason not to vote on election day.
Each of them now has extra barriers with one big rich nearby country.
Once you acknowledge that those barriers exist, it's just counting. Which is why BoJo has been desperate to deny said barriers.
(Posted a birthday present to Irish relatives yesterday. Having to do a customs sticker- a little thing, but it narked.)
I have seen people remark on the improvement on the UK's Balance of Payments. That's purely from the UK's perspective not the EU's - whether 27 on 1.
We look forward with increasing optimism to The 149th Open at Royal St George’s from 11-18 July 2021.
Whilst we would like to be able to give greater clarity at this stage, a number of important decisions have still to be made by the government, on issues such as social distancing, testing and Covid certification. These will have a significant bearing on the number of fans permitted at the Championship.
So much for everything back to normal from 21 June.
I suspect a lot of the other things Boris would like to deal with (Social care being a big one) are having similar arguments.
Doesn't mean it won't come. The confirmation of the 17 May unlocking only arrived this Monday, which also happened with prior steps, so its entirely possible the 21 June confirmation will only arrive on 14 June.
It really is a local story (albeit one that really isn't surprising).
You know - the usual bunch.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57079985
Worse than we thought in the comedy gold stakes - not Brittas, but Spencer.
The fact you admit that your daughter has bought fake ID and used it to purchase alcohol isn't something I would be personally admitting in public.
And I definitely wouldn't be using it when the requirement is to confirm identification against an external system (the voting list) when you are talking about her ability to cheat a minor attribute check..
Are there people who work from 8-7, and cant be bothered to vote because of that, but might vote on their day off? Absolutely. Instead of moaning that the young don't vote why not give them more opportunity to vote?
Unless you are a UK fisherman, obvs. Then it's fucking noticeable.
The UK shouldn't be gnashing its teeth over improving its balance of payments by £10.6 bn should it, don't you agree?
Although the reality is of course that its far too early to draw much judgement since the Q4 figures included stockpiling, the Q1 figures included unwind of stockpiling, and there is a pandemic going on.
Good luck, Mr. Gate.
Only once confirmation is given, probably on 14 June, has the decision been made. But they're making plans in July in anticipation of the decision being made.
Which, if you believe in free trade, is a loss for consumers.
Even though infection rates rose slightly earlier this week I still think the vaccination numbers are such that the current roadmap will remain as its planned to be.
It will take time for the aggregate figures to play out but the fact that we're over £10 billion better off in Balance of Payments is not something to be screaming in horror at. That the EU are over £10 billion worse off is something they can own too.
The reality is though that figure will almost certainly shrink as time goes on since its largely measuring stockpile versus unwind, so its rather meaningless.
2008 was about a 4% contraction, albeit as a burst not a slow puncture.
(The Covid crunch is different, because of the correct decision to treat it as the once in a lifetime rainy day, paid for with made-up money. Since we mostly didn't feel the pain on the way down, I'm not sure that we'll feel that much economic joy during the return to normal).
Equally software will fix the issue in a whole lot of cases - Ebay / Amazon / Aliexpress and (probably) Shopify have ways of handling the cross border VAT stuff.
This pattern will make it difficult to make any judgement on what, if any, effect brexit is having on UK/EU trade for quite some time.
Huzzah!
They can maybe trade with others so it will be interesting over time to compare how the UK's trade figures and EU27's trade figures trade long-term. They're unlikely to regain our net membership fees from others though.
Both as an observation in history, and because it goes against the idea of comparative advantage?
The EU has not gained any possibility to do that from the UK leaving.
The EU was an impediment to the UK doing its own agreements. The UK was not an impediment to the EU doing its own agreements.
Had they engaged with Cameron constructively we'd have almost certainly remained and still be paying our membership fees.
Had they engaged with May constructively we may have continued to pay EEA-style fees.
They didn't, they knew they were losing the membership fees, and they insisted upon border pedantry with a nation they have a mahoosive trade surplus with knowing full well that any damage would come on top of lost membership fees.
But I do think OGH might be mistaken in using figures for known voter ID fraud as a measure of the problem. The reason I say this is because, as he mentions, detection seems to rely primarily on people turning up at polling stations to find they have already voted.
But there is another clear way in which this fraud can be achieved without much fear of detection.
All it would need is for canvassers to note which households have said they do not intend to vote. This means that any fraud operation could then pretty safely claim to be those people with little fear of being detected. Is this a real problem? Who knows. But it is certainly a way in which it could be in issue that circumvents the evidence that OGH is relying on to say there is no real fraud issue.
Of course the answer to this is not to insist on voter ID which has other drawbacks, but to educate people not to tell canvassers that they do not intend to vote.
Cross-border VAT is not a problem as very little has changed. Its customs and paperwork - and if foreign companies also want to sell in NI they need to do it all twice. Once their UK company starts trading (soon baby...) it will only have the ability to import into and sell within GB. To sell within NI would involve exporting from the EEA to GB and then exporting it back to the EEA (NI).
If you are selling to Tesco that is their problem - they need to fuck around with the export paperwork to send products to their Belfast or Antrim warehouses. If on the other hand you want to sell to someone like Spar Hendersons with product imported from the EEA its far simpler to bypass GB completely.
Punters don't give a fuck about Northern Ireland - their "British" patriotism is for England. So it won't matter a jot to these Queen and country voters in the red wall that I am saying GB instead of UK. From a trading perspective there is no UK any more. And the people who traditionally would have been sad about that - and howl at the moon at the concept of Scotland going - seem delighted.
EDIT: I mean, the government has said if all goes well then that's the end of restrictions, but I don't think they actually mean it. They are very much going to keep some things even if there is no reason to delay the 21 June stage.
https://twitter.com/KELLYWEILL/status/1391804873520386051
If the UK was net over £2 billion worse off (which is pro-rata'd the same amount of money) then that would be bad news for us, don't you agree?
PS the EU have chosen to discuss this as a homogenous whole not 27. Their choice.
In 2019, 47,587,254 voted. 1 person was convicted of fraud. To put it another way electoral fraud in the UK accounted for 0.000002% of votes.
Don't take my word for it, check out the data here 👇 1/5
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/our-views-and-research/our-research/electoral-fraud-data/2019-electoral-fraud-data
https://twitter.com/CPJElmore/status/1392393582393298944
Its given an indication of what its thinking, subject to confirmation. But prior to confirmation nothing is official yet.
There are exceptions to the rule but generally when import protectionism is culturally popular and coupled with an aggressive export strategy. Like France and Italy with food and wine, or Russia's defence industry.
As for deals now being signed elsewhere for the UK that doesn't help farmers and fishermen who can only sell their product fresh. Anyway lets not go back around debating whether or not this has been bad for the fishing fleets no longer able to fish their normal areas or sell to their main markets.
IIRC attempting to prosecute over the Cash For Honours scandal was ruled not to be in pubic interest. Because it would be unfair on the government - since everyone else sold honours! No prosecutions in a long, long time, though....
But I get the feeling that end of all legal restrictions isn't going to be the end of the matter.
The big picture here though surely is that the UK has a zero-tariff, zero-quota trade deal with the EU so if there's significant comparative advantage then the trade will still go ahead despite any border pedantry. If there's billions of pounds in substitution (which I expect long-term once the stockpiling/unwind has rolled out of the system) based upon border pedantry alone and not because of tariffs or quotas then that seems significant.
Plus as the UK rolls out more trade deals in the future (eg CPTPP) we'll gain more based upon comparative advantage too.
The examples you gave didn't work well because the commitment / Government infrastructures / plain old corruption meant it morphed into something else, namely cronyism. However, when properly applied, protectionism, rather than free market, helps build up industries.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Sorry but its insignificant.
What part of that is confusing you? That's all in public domain. No decision is made yet, so they're just parroting what the government has said for months now.
The EU's border pedantry is petty and pathetic but what they've decided upon. If that results in import substitutions then there can't have been that much competitive advantage there to lose and we've gained from the substitutions. If there's significant competitive advantage then our zero-tariff, zero-quota deal will trump any petty border pedantry.
Also independent SAGE. Lol. They're literally zero COVID zealots who would have everyone locked away forever in case some 97 year old dies a year after getting COVID.
One of the biggest problems was the police not being interested. The Sheerwater and then later Maybury and Sheerwater example was well known to everyone. It had been going on for years. None of it condoned by the parties. All parties had won it at some stage. I suspect the result in each case was due to the efficiency of deception, but all the later examples were not a case of voter id at the polling station and lack of police interest. Eventually they did something.
If everyone in Bolton etc has been offered their vaccine by end May then any more spread will be because people have chosen to decline the vaccine. Their own damn fault.
We must expect cases to rise as we open up - the true measure must be are people getting ill enough to need hospital care and/or dying. If no, then we keep vaccinating and keep opening up.