John Curtice on the BBC "The first law of politics is the law of unintended consequences and that has certainly played out with respect to devolution."
So Andy Burnham has been reelected and therefore committed to another term of mayor, is not an MP and yet is 4/1 clear favourite with the bookies for next LP leader and can be laid at 5.4 at the exchanges.
The Tories lose control of Tunbridge Wells district council for the first time since 1998 after LD, Independent and Labour gains, though they remain largest party
So Andy Burnham has been reelected and therefore committed to another term of mayor, is not an MP and yet is 4/1 clear favourite with the bookies for next LP leader and can be laid at 5.4 at the exchanges.
I think that the thread header is a little harsh on Drakeford who has done exceptionally well in Wales and of course the new Labour Mayor of the West of England.
Its SKS that has been a complete failure. Difficult circumstances, Covid and all that, but a poor performance with no policies, no vision, no obvious direction other than hoping that the juggernaut that has just rolled over the top of him might veer off course at some point.
I think Sir Keir will have to go. It's not just his politics that is underwhelming (that can be forgiven), it's that he's letting Boris and minions off Scott free - the sense of bitter frustration from the Left over that is palpable.
Boris as Gru...getting up to all manner of mischief with his Minions, but still coming out of it all loveable in the end.
I think that the thread header is a little harsh on Drakeford who has done exceptionally well in Wales and of course the new Labour Mayor of the West of England.
Its SKS that has been a complete failure. Difficult circumstances, Covid and all that, but a poor performance with no policies, no vision, no obvious direction other than hoping that the juggernaut that has just rolled over the top of him might veer off course at some point.
He is SO BORING. I have just realised what is wrong with the taking the knee photograph, whatever your views on knee taking: it's in an empty characterless badly furnished boardroom. Could they not have popped out to the Mandela statue in Parliament Square?
Yesterdays we must connect with the public interview from his Westminster office with a shelf full of boring books the only other thing in shot....cut to Boris in Hartlepool with his blimp.
Boris and his Blimp was on the front of most every paper today. Just fucking genius.
I would hate to have him as an opponent.
No, no, he's just lucky. Everyone says so.
It is amazing that people still underestimate him and/or have moved on to the “he will get found out eventually” strategy. Sounds just like how people used to talk about Blair.
I think that the thread header is a little harsh on Drakeford who has done exceptionally well in Wales and of course the new Labour Mayor of the West of England.
Its SKS that has been a complete failure. Difficult circumstances, Covid and all that, but a poor performance with no policies, no vision, no obvious direction other than hoping that the juggernaut that has just rolled over the top of him might veer off course at some point.
I think Sir Keir will have to go. It's not just his politics that is underwhelming (that can be forgiven), it's that he's letting Boris and minions off Scott free - the sense of bitter frustration from the Left over that is palpable.
Boris as Gru...getting up to all manner of mischief with his Minions, but still coming out of it all loveable in the end.
I think that the thread header is a little harsh on Drakeford who has done exceptionally well in Wales and of course the new Labour Mayor of the West of England.
Its SKS that has been a complete failure. Difficult circumstances, Covid and all that, but a poor performance with no policies, no vision, no obvious direction other than hoping that the juggernaut that has just rolled over the top of him might veer off course at some point.
He is SO BORING. I have just realised what is wrong with the taking the knee photograph, whatever your views on knee taking: it's in an empty characterless badly furnished boardroom. Could they not have popped out to the Mandela statue in Parliament Square?
Yesterdays we must connect with the public interview from his Westminster office with a shelf full of boring books the only other thing in shot....cut to Boris in Hartlepool with his blimp.
Boris and his Blimp was on the front of most every paper today. Just fucking genius.
I would hate to have him as an opponent.
It looked like another Boris, didn't it? Becker. Now there was a muscly guy.
Just musing - when a working class area becomes gentrified, politically it moves to the left.
That's fecking mad.
Middle class replacing the working class without a change in the housing stock is a very urban thing.
And the urban middle classes are increasingly left wing.
The likes of Fulham and Battersea a generation ago saw gentrification favouring the Conservatives but that was very much a financial services caused effect.
When an area becomes more middle class because of new housing being built then that is more likely to favour the Conservatives.
I think that the thread header is a little harsh on Drakeford who has done exceptionally well in Wales and of course the new Labour Mayor of the West of England.
Its SKS that has been a complete failure. Difficult circumstances, Covid and all that, but a poor performance with no policies, no vision, no obvious direction other than hoping that the juggernaut that has just rolled over the top of him might veer off course at some point.
He is SO BORING. I have just realised what is wrong with the taking the knee photograph, whatever your views on knee taking: it's in an empty characterless badly furnished boardroom. Could they not have popped out to the Mandela statue in Parliament Square?
Yesterdays we must connect with the public interview from his Westminster office with a shelf full of boring books the only other thing in shot....cut to Boris in Hartlepool with his blimp.
Boris and his Blimp was on the front of most every paper today. Just fucking genius.
I would hate to have him as an opponent.
It looked like another Boris, didn't it? Becker. Now there was a muscly guy.
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I think that the thread header is a little harsh on Drakeford who has done exceptionally well in Wales and of course the new Labour Mayor of the West of England.
Its SKS that has been a complete failure. Difficult circumstances, Covid and all that, but a poor performance with no policies, no vision, no obvious direction other than hoping that the juggernaut that has just rolled over the top of him might veer off course at some point.
He is SO BORING. I have just realised what is wrong with the taking the knee photograph, whatever your views on knee taking: it's in an empty characterless badly furnished boardroom. Could they not have popped out to the Mandela statue in Parliament Square?
Yesterdays we must connect with the public interview from his Westminster office with a shelf full of boring books the only other thing in shot....cut to Boris in Hartlepool with his blimp.
Boris and his Blimp was on the front of most every paper today. Just fucking genius.
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
So Andy Burnham has been reelected and therefore committed to another term of mayor, is not an MP and yet is 4/1 clear favourite with the bookies for next LP leader and can be laid at 5.4 at the exchanges.
I think that the thread header is a little harsh on Drakeford who has done exceptionally well in Wales and of course the new Labour Mayor of the West of England.
Its SKS that has been a complete failure. Difficult circumstances, Covid and all that, but a poor performance with no policies, no vision, no obvious direction other than hoping that the juggernaut that has just rolled over the top of him might veer off course at some point.
He is SO BORING. I have just realised what is wrong with the taking the knee photograph, whatever your views on knee taking: it's in an empty characterless badly furnished boardroom. Could they not have popped out to the Mandela statue in Parliament Square?
Yesterdays we must connect with the public interview from his Westminster office with a shelf full of boring books the only other thing in shot....cut to Boris in Hartlepool with his blimp.
Boris and his Blimp was on the front of most every paper today. Just fucking genius.
I would hate to have him as an opponent.
It looked like another Boris, didn't it? Becker. Now there was a muscly guy.
There is one wild card I suppose. If enough left of centre LibDems and greens went Binface as second preference for a joke because they assumed Khan was a shoe in, I guess the second preference framework COULD look different than expected for Bailey.
Just musing - when a working class area becomes gentrified, politically it moves to the left.
That's fecking mad.
Middle class replacing the working class without a change in the housing stock is a very urban thing.
And the urban middle classes are increasingly left wing.
The likes of Fulham and Battersea a generation ago saw gentrification favouring the Conservatives but that was very much a financial services caused effect.
When an area becomes more middle class because of new housing being built then that is more likely to favour the Conservatives.
Not if they already own property as it means they will vote LD or Green locally to protect the fields and countryside.
The main factor of course is Brexit, this is now the poshest Labour party ever under Sir Keir, gaining seats in Remain voting upper middle class Surrey and Tunbridge Wells and a swing from the Tories in West London and winning the West of England Mayoralty thanks to Bristol and increasing its vote in posh Edinburgh while losing seats and votes in working class Leave voting areas from Harlow and Basildon, to Hartlepool, Nuneaton, Cannock Chase and Rotherham, the West Midlands and Havering and Bexley as Boris' Tories are the most working class Tory party ever and failing to make any gains from the SNP in its old Glasgow working class heartland.
Only Wales it seems is still seeing the working class vote Labour
I think that the thread header is a little harsh on Drakeford who has done exceptionally well in Wales and of course the new Labour Mayor of the West of England.
Its SKS that has been a complete failure. Difficult circumstances, Covid and all that, but a poor performance with no policies, no vision, no obvious direction other than hoping that the juggernaut that has just rolled over the top of him might veer off course at some point.
He is SO BORING. I have just realised what is wrong with the taking the knee photograph, whatever your views on knee taking: it's in an empty characterless badly furnished boardroom. Could they not have popped out to the Mandela statue in Parliament Square?
Yesterdays we must connect with the public interview from his Westminster office with a shelf full of boring books the only other thing in shot....cut to Boris in Hartlepool with his blimp.
Boris and his Blimp was on the front of most every paper today. Just fucking genius.
I would hate to have him as an opponent.
No, no, he's just lucky. Everyone says so.
It is amazing that people still underestimate him and/or have moved on to the “he will get found out eventually” strategy. Sounds just like how people used to talk about Blair.
Boris is able to make many of his enemies so angry and bitter that they are unable to consider him rationally, claim his success is all down to luck and so continually underestimate him.
Just musing - when a working class area becomes gentrified, politically it moves to the left.
That's fecking mad.
Middle class replacing the working class without a change in the housing stock is a very urban thing.
And the urban middle classes are increasingly left wing.
The likes of Fulham and Battersea a generation ago saw gentrification favouring the Conservatives but that was very much a financial services caused effect.
When an area becomes more middle class because of new housing being built then that is more likely to favour the Conservatives.
The urban middle class need a stiff dose off socialism - to see how much they will be the milch cow....
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
Hmm. I think part of the issue was the narrative hyping up an SNP majority, the “both votes snp” strategy. I didn’t expect pro unionist parties to get a higher % of vote share overall.
Once David Miliband was defeated by his brother in 2010, Burnham was the only potential Labour leadership contender as a Tory I really feared and still do.
Centrist in Labour terms, not fanatically anti Brexit and respecting the Leave vote despite having backed Remain, charismatic and Northern rather than London he ticks all the boxes Labour need
What about Jess Phillips, quite a few on the labour right seem to think the Tories would quake in their boots at the thought of facing her.
Burnham would be an infinitely better choice for Labour than Phillips. Labour Party would probably split if she became leader.
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
Hmm. I think part of the issue was the narrative hyping up an SNP majority, the “both votes snp” strategy. I didn’t expect pro unionist parties to get a higher % of vote share overall.
Hence the the stalemate..
There is no stalemate. Various parties have a manifesto pledge to independence, and for the first time since the 2011 parliament we have a majority of MSPs for it. And a record number of MSPs for independence.
Once David Miliband was defeated by his brother in 2010, Burnham was the only potential Labour leadership contender as a Tory I really feared and still do.
Centrist in Labour terms, not fanatically anti Brexit and respecting the Leave vote despite having backed Remain, charismatic and Northern rather than London he ticks all the boxes Labour need
What about Jess Phillips, quite a few on the labour right seem to think the Tories would quake in their boots at the thought of facing her.
Burnham would be an infinitely better choice for Labour than Phillips. Labour Party would probably split if she became leader.
Given that Labour needs to rid itself of the left wing elements with their own agendas where is the problem in encouraging them to leave earlier?
Owen Jones 🌹 @OwenJones84 · 8m Keir Starmer is sacking Angela Rayner as party chair as part of his new strategy, Operation Scapegoat Working Class Women For The Abject Failures Of Keir Starmer
Incidentally, it's obvious Count Binface is centre-left (the anti-Boris/Priti, monarchy-sceptic and pro-EU stars etc.) but I don't care.
He's fun and funny - our politics needs much more of that.
He's really in the tradition of Lord Sutch, which is not either progressive or conservative, and yes I definitely agree a good thing. 1960s British pantomime.
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
Hmm. I think part of the issue was the narrative hyping up an SNP majority, the “both votes snp” strategy. I didn’t expect pro unionist parties to get a higher % of vote share overall.
Hence the the stalemate..
There is no stalemate. Various parties have a manifesto pledge to independence, and for the first time since the 2011 parliament we have a majority of MSPs for it. And a record number of MSPs for independence.
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
I don't want Scotland to be under SNP control a minute longer than necessary, but I have felt for a while that it was necessary from a Unionist standpoint that Sturgeon's necrotic Government be returned to power. There's a lot coming down the line for them to own. People 'going off them a bit' and returning a Unionist party to power, then going off that party, and returning the SNP to power, isn't going to happen - this isn't politics as usual. This is about a movement, and how that plays out.
Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire · 4m Angela Rayner has been sacked as chairman of the Labour Party, source confirms
Even I as a Tory think that's totally f-ing stupid. She's not the problem.
What's wrong with him?
I reported a few days ago my Labour sources from up very high that Rayner was on manuevers. On what planet does it make sense to sack the deputy leader? If she's launched a putsch against you!
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
Comments
1 prefs
Con 44%
Lab 37%
LD 14%
Reform 3%
Leonie Cooper 41.7 (=)
Con 33.7 (-5.7)
For Mayor Merton and Wandsworth is
Khan -0.6
Bailey -6.1
https://www.timeslocalnews.co.uk/tunbridge-wells-news/conservatives-lose-control-of-tunbridge-wells-after-two-decades-in-power
You've nailed it.
That's fecking mad.
4 Labour
Pauline McNeill
Anas Sarwar
Paul Sweeney
Pam Duncan-Glancy
2 Con
Annie Wells
Sandesh Gulhane
1 Green
Patrick Harvey
Same as 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktVvO2SafAY
https://news.stv.tv/politics/election-2021-seat-by-seat-results-as-they-happen
And the urban middle classes are increasingly left wing.
The likes of Fulham and Battersea a generation ago saw gentrification favouring the Conservatives but that was very much a financial services caused effect.
When an area becomes more middle class because of new housing being built then that is more likely to favour the Conservatives.
BINFACE!!!!!
second round
Labour 80,520
Conservative 77,352
Lab hold
Doubt it though.
Then again Leave was a clear loser at around midnight on that heady day in June and that was a five figure win for me...
I'll still make money on the race overall because of my laying of Gammons et al but I have been so uncomplimentary about Shaun Bailey for ages.
The main factor of course is Brexit, this is now the poshest Labour party ever under Sir Keir, gaining seats in Remain voting upper middle class Surrey and Tunbridge Wells and a swing from the Tories in West London and winning the West of England Mayoralty thanks to Bristol and increasing its vote in posh Edinburgh while losing seats and votes in working class Leave voting areas from Harlow and Basildon, to Hartlepool, Nuneaton, Cannock Chase and Rotherham, the West Midlands and Havering and Bexley as Boris' Tories are the most working class Tory party ever and failing to make any gains from the SNP in its old Glasgow working class heartland.
Only Wales it seems is still seeing the working class vote Labour
4 Con
2 Lab
1 Green
Green gain.
LD lost seat
They Boris is able to make many of his enemies so angry and bitter that they are unable to consider him rationally, claim his success is all down to luck and so continually underestimate him.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
But I have worked with him previously and I think there's more good than bad in him.
Hence the the stalemate..
Oh well. There is beer.
Am I missing something. I've run the numbers and no matter what the scenario the SNP get the last List seat. Which would take them to 64 seat overall.
But everyone is saying they will get 63 seats.
Khan -7.1
Bailey +2.4
Assembly constituency
Labour 48.3 (-5.7)
Con 25.8 (+2.2)
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1391088961372762124?s=20
@patrickkmaguire
·
4m
Angela Rayner has been sacked as chairman of the Labour Party, source confirms
He's fun and funny - our politics needs much more of that.
BBC have comprehensively bust the embargo on Boris Johnson letter to Nicola Sturgeon, which is supposed to be 10.30pm
https://twitter.com/ChrisGreenNews/status/1391082838125162501?s=20
What's wrong with him?
@OwenJones84
·
8m
Keir Starmer is sacking Angela Rayner as party chair as part of his new strategy, Operation Scapegoat Working Class Women For The Abject Failures Of Keir Starmer
He doesn't have the power to sack her as depute.
How is Sturgeon going to get the vote?
Unless she’s on manoeuvres and it’s a preemptive move..