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Why the likely CON win in Hartlepool won’t be as big a deal as some are saying – politicalbetting.co

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Andy_JS said:

    Nothing beats election day rumours. 😊

    Tottenham are rumoured to be talking to Inter Milan boss Conte about their managerial vacancy?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Oh God. Bercow on Question Time tonight.

    I thought that weirdo had dropped off the radar.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Andy_JS said:

    Nothing beats election day rumours. 😊

    Just seen this one

    https://twitter.com/Stefan_Boscia/status/1390330751078502402

    Seriously.......

    A Labour campaign source said “voter turnout is very low” across the capital and that Khan’s camp were “concerned”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Bored now.

    Want some psephological action.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    I disagree completely that its no big deal if the Tories win tonight, its massive. For quite a few reasons.

    1. These Brexit Party voters are not-Tories, traditionally Labour, that were not prepared to vote Tory even in 2019 to "Get Brexit Done".
    2. This is far from the only seat that would fall if BXP voters go blue. It'll be the case for eg Yvette Cooper's too.
    3. A baseline majority would be 110 instead of 80 if Hartlepool and comparable falls.
    4. This is midterms, the government should be losing.
    5. It shows that "Get Brexit Done" wasn't a one-off two years ago.
    6. It shows that Corbyn wasn't the be all and end all either.
    7. Even if the political layout "just" keeps the landscape the same as it was in 2019, that's incredibly good news for the Tories.
    But Brexit isn't done at all. We have the October border stuff to sort out. Though I doubt many of the voters are aware of that.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    A Brussels plot to lock the City out of European markets has backfired and harmed the finances of banks on the Continent, the boss of the UK's finance watchdog has said.

    Nikhil Rathi, head of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), said in a first major intervention that European Union lenders have lost market share because of resistance to a so-called equivalence deal that would have preserved ties with Britain.

    He added that the UK will not now pursue access to the EU at any price - and vowed to use the country's post-Brexit freedoms to redraft cumbersome regulations.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/06/brussels-bid-cut-city-backfiring-watchdog-warns/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, Yvette seems to have the first name factor based on responses here, which some people persist in pretending is like how people think Boris is their best mate or some such rubbish, so she is clearly the candidate to go for based on that alone.

    One day you will understand the point I make about the Boris brand and how the ubiquitous use of his first name in a spirit of false intimacy is a key part of it.

    But until then you will write more posts like this.
    I understand the point completely, I just think it is fundamentally flawed, insulting to the electorate by suggesting one element of a person's brand is so powerful, and therefore disagree with it and so like to make fun of it.

    That people have indeed being mentioning Yvette (and indeed Keir) rather makes the point that a brand is a lot more than some claptrap about false intimacy - since even if a politician gets known by an 'intimate' name, it is not enough on its own.

    Put simply, yes, people calling him Boris is part of his brand, but I think it is utterly absurd to suggest that merely using the name is as powerful as you appear to think it is, even when people who detest him use it, and I personally think obsession with people using the name he is known by is ridiculous and focusing on the wrong thing. How much energy wasted by people moaning about others calling the man Boris?

    We disagree about that and will continue to do so, so no, there will be no enlightenment as the point is pretty darn easy to grasp. It's ok to disagree.

    But thank you for 'one day you will understand', that certainly helps makes your point.
    The inanity of people obsessing over someone's first name is completely ridiculous.

    People have been talking about Keir and Yvette, Joe and more.

    Its 2021, people use first names quite frequently. Why people act like we're still in the 1950s is beyond me.
    I think it must be Kier, I saw one of his vans go by earlier
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    edited May 2021

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    Have you SEEN the choice we have in London?

    Exactly
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662

    Oh God. Bercow on Question Time tonight. What are the odds on everyone except the Conservative blaming Boris for the French Fishermens action?

    Do you live in the Inverness area if Scotland?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Deleted already so couldn't see it but there's a clue that its nonsense: It has "/peston/" in the URL.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    On topic I think it depends on the result. If the Tories squeak it I would say no big surprise. If the rumours that Labour might get less than half their 2019 vote have any truth in them then it would be bordering on a disaster.

    Basically a Tory win of 4k or more would be really bad.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    felix said:

    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    5m
    Tories are briefing that Labour has got its vote out in Hartlepool and is doing better than expected throughout England. I have zero idea if this is mind games or real.

    GOTV. Still one hour left, right?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    DavidL said:

    On topic I think it depends on the result. If the Tories squeak it I would say no big surprise. If the rumours that Labour might get less than half their 2019 vote have any truth in them then it would be bordering on a disaster.

    Basically a Tory win of 4k or more would be really bad.

    If Labour really have less than half of their 2019 vote in Hartlepool it potentially puts the South of England into play for Labour if the polls are right and their support is still in the 35% range. Those votes must be somewhere.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Floater said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nothing beats election day rumours. 😊

    Just seen this one

    https://twitter.com/Stefan_Boscia/status/1390330751078502402

    Seriously.......

    A Labour campaign source said “voter turnout is very low” across the capital and that Khan’s camp were “concerned”.
    GOTV
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993

    Leon said:

    India

    414,443 cases. In one day

    10% of them can expect to end up in hospital.

    40,000 daily. Theoretically. Add in a collapsing health system?

    This is what would have happened here if Toby Young and his fellow Lockdown Sceptics/Covid deniers would have had their way.
    Yeah like it did in Florida and South Dakota, where they did have their way.

    Oh wait...
    Sure they did.
    Which is why DeSantis is having to pass laws to try to stop the various counties from continuing to impose restrictions and mask mandates in Florida.
    Because ... um... I’m a bit lost on that. Outside mask mandates, closed recreation facilities, maximum of 25% capacity allowed for restaurants, etc - they don’t scream “this is what Toby Young wants” to me.
    (Just glancing at Orange County).
  • DavidL said:

    On topic I think it depends on the result. If the Tories squeak it I would say no big surprise. If the rumours that Labour might get less than half their 2019 vote have any truth in them then it would be bordering on a disaster.

    Basically a Tory win of 4k or more would be really bad.

    If Labour really have less than half of their 2019 vote in Hartlepool it potentially puts the South of England into play for Labour if the polls are right and their support is still in the 35% range. Those votes must be somewhere.
    Be interesting the weekend polling as to whether the gap has widened again.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662

    Oh God. Bercow on Question Time tonight. What are the odds on everyone except the Conservative blaming Boris for the French Fishermens action?

    Do you live in the Inverness area if Scotland?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, Yvette seems to have the first name factor based on responses here, which some people persist in pretending is like how people think Boris is their best mate or some such rubbish, so she is clearly the candidate to go for based on that alone.

    One day you will understand the point I make about the Boris brand and how the ubiquitous use of his first name in a spirit of false intimacy is a key part of it.

    But until then you will write more posts like this.
    I understand the point completely, I just think it is fundamentally flawed, insulting to the electorate by suggesting one element of a person's brand is so powerful, and therefore disagree with it and so like to make fun of it.

    That people have indeed being mentioning Yvette (and indeed Keir) rather makes the point that a brand is a lot more than some claptrap about false intimacy - since even if a politician gets known by an 'intimate' name, it is not enough on its own.

    Put simply, yes, people calling him Boris is part of his brand, but I think it is utterly absurd to suggest that merely using the name is as powerful as you appear to think it is, even when people who detest him use it, and I personally think obsession with people using the name he is known by is ridiculous and focusing on the wrong thing. How much energy wasted by people moaning about others calling the man Boris?

    We disagree about that and will continue to do so, so no, there will be no enlightenment as the point is pretty darn easy to grasp. It's ok to disagree.

    But thank you for 'one day you will understand', that certainly helps makes your point.
    You still don't get it. The name is symptom not cause.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Leon said:

    India

    414,443 cases. In one day

    10% of them can expect to end up in hospital.

    40,000 daily. Theoretically. Add in a collapsing health system?

    This is what would have happened here if Toby Young and his fellow Lockdown Sceptics/Covid deniers would have had their way.
    Yeah like it did in Florida and South Dakota, where they did have their way.

    Oh wait...
    South Dakota: 2,234 covid deaths per million. Say no more.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    On topic I think it depends on the result. If the Tories squeak it I would say no big surprise. If the rumours that Labour might get less than half their 2019 vote have any truth in them then it would be bordering on a disaster.

    Basically a Tory win of 4k or more would be really bad.

    If Labour really have less than half of their 2019 vote in Hartlepool it potentially puts the South of England into play for Labour if the polls are right and their support is still in the 35% range. Those votes must be somewhere.
    Or the national vote includes a lot of Labour voters who are not turning out today for whatever reason. In local elections differential turnout is key.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    PS managed to convince my girlfriend to vote 👏
  • FWIW My perception of turnout in Knowsley (mostly) and Liverpool (east of the city) is turnout is really low. The greenies seem to be happy and the Tories think Labour will get what amounts to a kicking in one of its remaining WC redoubts. They are in no danger of anything but embarrassment though.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Queues outside our (Oxfordshire) polling station earlier. Ok, social distancing and all that, but it seems to have been a very healthy turnout. For the first time I found myself voting tactically in a town council election, too...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I think it depends on the result. If the Tories squeak it I would say no big surprise. If the rumours that Labour might get less than half their 2019 vote have any truth in them then it would be bordering on a disaster.

    Basically a Tory win of 4k or more would be really bad.

    If Labour really have less than half of their 2019 vote in Hartlepool it potentially puts the South of England into play for Labour if the polls are right and their support is still in the 35% range. Those votes must be somewhere.
    Or the national vote includes a lot of Labour voters who are not turning out today for whatever reason. In local elections differential turnout is key.
    I think that's certainly the case. The young are certainly not bothering to vote. Almost all of my friends from university, primarily Labour supporters, have not bothered to vote today, anecdotally.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Just back from a few hours' telling in my ward to show the flag (mixed wealthy, middle-class and one council estate - County seat is LibDem held) - very light poll, around 40 people an hour. No other tellers. Reports from across the constituency say a few candidates are doing telling but nobody is knocking up, on the basis that unnecessary visits will still be unwelcome. Postal vote also light, as reported earlier.

    I've had five knocker uppers out in Barnes for several hours each this afternoon and evening. All five are enthusiastic about the reception they got. No complaints about appearing on the doorstep. Some welcomed them. Most supporters have now voted.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,898
    A disappearing Peston tweet !
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    Oh God. Bercow on Question Time tonight. What are the odds on everyone except the Conservative blaming Boris for the French Fishermens action?

    Do you live in the Inverness area if Scotland?
    He told us earlier that he's in Edinburgh Pentlands (my neighbouring SP constituency).

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, Yvette seems to have the first name factor based on responses here, which some people persist in pretending is like how people think Boris is their best mate or some such rubbish, so she is clearly the candidate to go for based on that alone.

    One day you will understand the point I make about the Boris brand and how the ubiquitous use of his first name in a spirit of false intimacy is a key part of it.

    But until then you will write more posts like this.
    I understand the point completely, I just think it is fundamentally flawed, insulting to the electorate by suggesting one element of a person's brand is so powerful, and therefore disagree with it and so like to make fun of it.

    That people have indeed being mentioning Yvette (and indeed Keir) rather makes the point that a brand is a lot more than some claptrap about false intimacy - since even if a politician gets known by an 'intimate' name, it is not enough on its own.

    Put simply, yes, people calling him Boris is part of his brand, but I think it is utterly absurd to suggest that merely using the name is as powerful as you appear to think it is, even when people who detest him use it, and I personally think obsession with people using the name he is known by is ridiculous and focusing on the wrong thing. How much energy wasted by people moaning about others calling the man Boris?

    We disagree about that and will continue to do so, so no, there will be no enlightenment as the point is pretty darn easy to grasp. It's ok to disagree.

    But thank you for 'one day you will understand', that certainly helps makes your point.
    The inanity of people obsessing over someone's first name is completely ridiculous.

    People have been talking about Keir and Yvette, Joe and more.

    Its 2021, people use first names quite frequently. Why people act like we're still in the 1950s is beyond me.
    Thanks Phil.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    DavidL said:

    Well voting is beyond brisk in my village. Over 60% turnout at 8pm and going like a fair. Can't say that this is good news for Unionists. The army of the dead (in the head) that follow Nicola have apparently risen from their pits. Bah.

    Why does everyone seem to think "Nicola" walks on water in Scotland?

    I can't stand her. Lots of people I know round here can't. Yet, people throw themselves down in front of her north of the border.

    What is it? Her earnestness? Her utter obsession with nothing but politics since the age of twelve? Her annoying voice? Her professional - but transparent - obfuscation or any criticism? Her poor performance and delivery in office? Her jerky head-bobbing whenever she's interviewed? Her habit of angrily spitting out "The Tories" three times in every sentence? Her total lack of a sense of humour?

    Do tell.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Floater said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nothing beats election day rumours. 😊

    Just seen this one

    https://twitter.com/Stefan_Boscia/status/1390330751078502402

    Seriously.......

    A Labour campaign source said “voter turnout is very low” across the capital and that Khan’s camp were “concerned”.
    It's a tough knack to come up with phony rumours that was techncally plausible enough to be pushed without too much embarrassment, in order to further encourage voters to turnout. That one has missed the mark.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,174

    Just back from a few hours' telling in my ward to show the flag (mixed wealthy, middle-class and one council estate - County seat is LibDem held) - very light poll, around 40 people an hour. No other tellers. Reports from across the constituency say a few candidates are doing telling but nobody is knocking up, on the basis that unnecessary visits will still be unwelcome. Postal vote also light, as reported earlier.

    Godalming Binscombe?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    geoffw said:

    Oh God. Bercow on Question Time tonight. What are the odds on everyone except the Conservative blaming Boris for the French Fishermens action?

    Do you live in the Inverness area if Scotland?
    He told us earlier that he's in Edinburgh Pentlands (my neighbouring SP constituency).

    I used to live in Edinburgh Pentlands 1963 - 1965
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,174

    Bored now.

    Want some psephological action.

    +1
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Re-posted from end of last thread:

    1. There's no vacancy as leader of the Labour Party. Starmer isn't going anywhere for at least a year, even if tonight's results are horrendous. And there won't be a challenge.

    2. Don't forget that Starmer won the leadership election hands down. The idea that there's any appetite for somebody like Burgon from the membership is ludicrous.

    3. If Starmer were to jack it in, I'd expect both Rayner and Nandy to stand. Nandy would win, because she'd run a better, more articulate campaign and has the ability to appeal to all factions in the party apart from the far, far left who are, as can be seen from the last leader/deputy election, in retreat.

    2. Because he was supposed to be a vote winner and promised to unite


    Failed miserably on both fronts

    PLP knives will be out IMO
    He is a vote winner but only if the govt makes a mess of the economy.

    Labour do not have and will not have a vote winner whilst the govt does well or okay for their voting coalition.
    Exactly this. The best chance Labour has is the Tories imploding or screwing up which is the only way they will lose. Keir is best for that scenario.

    Until somebody better comes along he has my support. End of.
    It's not possible to out-Boris Boris; even if it were, I'm not sure that it would be desirable.

    So, frustrating as it is, Labour's best bet remains Starmer- the Mark Darcy that the nation can turn to when Daniel Cleaver has been caddish once too often.

    That's not to say that Labour shouldn't have energetic campaigners at the top, but they don't need to be Prime Minister in waiting. They're different jobs after all.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
    He’s Oswald Mosley with a pisspoor singing voice.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1390392399365554181?s=19

    Question for lawyers, do judges like it when defendants scream "fuck you" at them repeatedly?
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 309

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, Yvette seems to have the first name factor based on responses here, which some people persist in pretending is like how people think Boris is their best mate or some such rubbish, so she is clearly the candidate to go for based on that alone.

    One day you will understand the point I make about the Boris brand and how the ubiquitous use of his first name in a spirit of false intimacy is a key part of it.

    But until then you will write more posts like this.
    I understand the point completely, I just think it is fundamentally flawed, insulting to the electorate by suggesting one element of a person's brand is so powerful, and therefore disagree with it and so like to make fun of it.

    That people have indeed being mentioning Yvette (and indeed Keir) rather makes the point that a brand is a lot more than some claptrap about false intimacy - since even if a politician gets known by an 'intimate' name, it is not enough on its own.

    Put simply, yes, people calling him Boris is part of his brand, but I think it is utterly absurd to suggest that merely using the name is as powerful as you appear to think it is, even when people who detest him use it, and I personally think obsession with people using the name he is known by is ridiculous and focusing on the wrong thing. How much energy wasted by people moaning about others calling the man Boris?

    We disagree about that and will continue to do so, so no, there will be no enlightenment as the point is pretty darn easy to grasp. It's ok to disagree.

    But thank you for 'one day you will understand', that certainly helps makes your point.
    The inanity of people obsessing over someone's first name is completely ridiculous.

    People have been talking about Keir and Yvette, Joe and more.

    Its 2021, people use first names quite frequently. Why people act like we're still in the 1950s is beyond me.
    It's also a communications issue - referring to 'Boris' in a political context is a much more effective way of communicating who you mean than 'Johnson', given there's about half a dozen MPs with that surname. Similarly, Yvette is more distinctive than Cooper. Keir and Starmer are probably about as distinctive as each other and I've seen people use the names interchangably without really thinking about it.

    For the purposes of commenting on this site, I say Johnson even though it's an objectively worse way of communicating who I'm talking about, because I don't want to irritate the militant anti-Boris posters who pop up occasionally.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Queues outside our (Oxfordshire) polling station earlier. Ok, social distancing and all that, but it seems to have been a very healthy turnout. For the first time I found myself voting tactically in a town council election, too...

    I find it difficult to be tactical at a town election, since even for politics all parties and candidates tend to promise the same thing - they will put the town first, listen to residents, work with police, seek to stop overdevelopment etc

    Hopefully you are lucky and there was a hot button issue to wrestle with which polarised the factions.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662

    FWIW My perception of turnout in Knowsley (mostly) and Liverpool (east of the city) is turnout is really low. The greenies seem to be happy and the Tories think Labour will get what amounts to a kicking in one of its remaining WC redoubts. They are in no danger of anything but embarrassment though.

    You couldn't get a more Labour stronghold than Knowsley. Its where St Helens RLFC ground is near to.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Anecdote from the front line:

    "Our Labour voters are not turning out"

    So there we go.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:

    Forgive me for laughing my head off

    https://twitter.com/CityAM/status/1390381863521374212

    Taxman chasing Gary Lineker for £5m over IR35 dispute

    Good.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    edited May 2021
    Barnesian said:

    The London result will be interesting.

    There are three ballot papers. The Mayoral one is supplementary vote with two columns. Then there is a Regional vote (for 12 GLA members FPTP) and a List vote (de Hondt method) for 12 List members of the GLA. It's hideously complex. Three different coloured ballot papers with three different methods of voting.

    LibDems are voting enthusiastically. Tories seem to unenthusiastic about Bailey for Mayor and therefore many are not bothering to vote at all. Don't know about Labour.

    I think the LibDem will double, and perhaps treble their representation on the GLA. But no betting opportunities as far as I can see.

    I've laid Khan getting between 40-45% first preferences at 1.7 ( now moved to 1.99).
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.181958375
    I think he will do better than that.

    I split my ticket. Gave the Liberal girl my first choice as I’ve been impressed with the Libs’ line on civil liberties. I think they might do quite well in the London-wide poll.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    NYT ($) Republicans and Democrats are increasingly alienated from one another, rhetorically and geographically.

    Measure your own political isolation with this tool from The New York Times’s Opinion section. . . .

    We measured political isolation by looking at each voter’s thousand closest neighbors. For about one in five Republicans, and two in five Democrats, less than a quarter of their neighbors belong to the opposite political party. . . .

    Our data reveals the racial and political segregation that exists even within cities. In Mobile, Ala., for example, Black Democrats live along the water, while white Republicans are bunched up farther inland. This division has existed for more than a century, in part because of the government’s racist housing policies. . . .

    But even if racial segregation disappeared overnight, there’s evidence to suggest that people would still be sorted into red or blue communities.

    Take Cedar Grove, N.J., and its neighbor to the east, Upper Montclair. About four out of five residents in both areas identify as white.

    Politically, though, the two New Jersey suburbs are worlds apart. Last year, Donald Trump won Cedar Grove by a margin of seven percentage points. In Montclair, President Biden won by 78 percentage points. . . .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    DavidL said:

    Well voting is beyond brisk in my village. Over 60% turnout at 8pm and going like a fair. Can't say that this is good news for Unionists. The army of the dead (in the head) that follow Nicola have apparently risen from their pits. Bah.

    Why does everyone seem to think "Nicola" walks on water in Scotland?

    I can't stand her. Lots of people I know round here can't. Yet, people throw themselves down in front of her north of the border.

    What is it? Her earnestness? Her utter obsession with nothing but politics since the age of twelve? Her annoying voice? Her professional - but transparent - obfuscation or any criticism? Her poor performance and delivery in office? Her jerky head-bobbing whenever she's interviewed? Her habit of angrily spitting out "The Tories" three times in every sentence? Her total lack of a sense of humour?

    Do tell.
    A lot of people cannot understand Boris's appeal either, but he clearly has it (south of the border anyway). Ratings alone, imperfect as they are, suggest Nicola managed to connect with people somehow.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Leon said:

    Saw a couple of voting queues this evening, but that could easily be the Lurgy


    I delivered my postal vote in person in sunny but chilly Primrose Hill

    I went:

    Lozza

    Binface

    Tories

    I wonder which way @Lion_of_Penarth voted in the London Mayorals. Hopefully he'll be along later to confirm.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    Well voting is beyond brisk in my village. Over 60% turnout at 8pm and going like a fair. Can't say that this is good news for Unionists. The army of the dead (in the head) that follow Nicola have apparently risen from their pits. Bah.

    Why does everyone seem to think "Nicola" walks on water in Scotland?

    I can't stand her. Lots of people I know round here can't. Yet, people throw themselves down in front of her north of the border.

    What is it? Her earnestness? Her utter obsession with nothing but politics since the age of twelve? Her annoying voice? Her professional - but transparent - obfuscation or any criticism? Her poor performance and delivery in office? Her jerky head-bobbing whenever she's interviewed? Her habit of angrily spitting out "The Tories" three times in every sentence? Her total lack of a sense of humour?

    Do tell.
    You're asking the wrong person. Personally I am fonder of an unfortunate event I had to scrape off my shoe this morning.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,174
    edited May 2021

    geoffw said:

    Oh God. Bercow on Question Time tonight. What are the odds on everyone except the Conservative blaming Boris for the French Fishermens action?

    Do you live in the Inverness area if Scotland?
    He told us earlier that he's in Edinburgh Pentlands (my neighbouring SP constituency).

    I used to live in Edinburgh Pentlands 1963 - 1965
    When they used to weigh the Tory vote in the posh areas of Edinburgh.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257

    Anecdote from the front line:

    "Our Labour voters are not turning out"

    So there we go.

    Which front line?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Whatever isn't it great to be having real elections again

    Indeed. Yearly Israeli elections just isn't the same thing in terms of scratching the psephological itch.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Pulpstar said:

    A disappearing Peston tweet !

    I wonder if someopne pulled out his telephone wire.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    This is interesting. Hong Kongers have accounted for 4% of property sales in London in the last year:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hong-kong-buyers-snap-up-prime-property-in-london-r5c2dxlt6
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited May 2021
    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    Saw a couple of voting queues this evening, but that could easily be the Lurgy


    I delivered my postal vote in person in sunny but chilly Primrose Hill

    I went:

    Lozza

    Binface

    Tories

    So right wing loonies do live in London. Rare as hen's teeth but still surviving in our great capital!
    Be on the lookout for them and stay safe, murali_s!
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Well voting is beyond brisk in my village. Over 60% turnout at 8pm and going like a fair. Can't say that this is good news for Unionists. The army of the dead (in the head) that follow Nicola have apparently risen from their pits. Bah.

    Why does everyone seem to think "Nicola" walks on water in Scotland?

    I can't stand her. Lots of people I know round here can't. Yet, people throw themselves down in front of her north of the border.

    What is it? Her earnestness? Her utter obsession with nothing but politics since the age of twelve? Her annoying voice? Her professional - but transparent - obfuscation or any criticism? Her poor performance and delivery in office? Her jerky head-bobbing whenever she's interviewed? Her habit of angrily spitting out "The Tories" three times in every sentence? Her total lack of a sense of humour?

    Do tell.
    A lot of people cannot understand Boris's appeal either, but he clearly has it (south of the border anyway). Ratings alone, imperfect as they are, suggest Nicola managed to connect with people somehow.

    Doesn't say much good for 45% of Scottish people (no offense intended to the rest) if that is what they connect with.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549

    PS managed to convince my girlfriend to vote 👏

    IF she voted as you suggested, then you are Boss Gallowgate - a political power in the land . . . or ward.

    Start procreating, and before you know it you'll have your own political clan!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Barnesian said:

    The London result will be interesting.

    There are three ballot papers. The Mayoral one is supplementary vote with two columns. Then there is a Regional vote (for 12 GLA members FPTP) and a List vote (de Hondt method) for 12 List members of the GLA. It's hideously complex. Three different coloured ballot papers with three different methods of voting.

    LibDems are voting enthusiastically. Tories seem to unenthusiastic about Bailey for Mayor and therefore many are not bothering to vote at all. Don't know about Labour.

    I think the LibDem will double, and perhaps treble their representation on the GLA. But no betting opportunities as far as I can see.

    I've laid Khan getting between 40-45% first preferences at 1.7 ( now moved to 1.99).
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.181958375
    I think he will do better than that.

    I split my ticket. Gave the Liberal girl my first choice as I’ve been impressed with the Libs’ line on civil liberties. I think they might do quite well in the London-wide poll.
    What counts as well? Outperforming Green?
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,227
    Re: Sunderland - Lab did badly in 2019 losing 10 seats to a mix of Con/LD/UKIP. They are defending 22 seats that were Lab last time round (2016) and would need to lose 12 to lose control of the council. It is interesting to see that UKIP are still quite active in Sunderland and have put quite a few candidates up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    This is interesting. Hong Kongers have accounted for 4% of property sales in London in the last year:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hong-kong-buyers-snap-up-prime-property-in-london-r5c2dxlt6

    This is interesting. Hong Kongers have accounted for 4% of property sales in London in the last year:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hong-kong-buyers-snap-up-prime-property-in-london-r5c2dxlt6

    Surely you mean 4% of property purchases?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well voting is beyond brisk in my village. Over 60% turnout at 8pm and going like a fair. Can't say that this is good news for Unionists. The army of the dead (in the head) that follow Nicola have apparently risen from their pits. Bah.

    Is high turnout definitely good for the nats?
    Yes. The Tory vote always turns out. Whether it wins or not depends on how many SNP supporters can be arsed.
    We've lived in interesting times for a few years now.

    Scotland is all that's left to stop it getting boring in the next few years. Sorry, but all our entertainment is resting upon you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
    He’s Oswald Mosley with a pisspoor singing voice.
    He's no such thing. In many respects he's still a bit of a hippy liberal, but not on Wokeness and the right to say whatever the f-ck you think.

    Silly post.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1390392399365554181?s=19

    Question for lawyers, do judges like it when defendants scream "fuck you" at them repeatedly?

    Generally not, they don't even like it when I do that as counsel.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362

    Anecdote from the front line:

    "Our Labour voters are not turning out"

    So there we go.

    Which front line?
    All of them....
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,227
    Has anyone got any news on turnout in Scotland and Wales? You might expect higher turnout for these as the elections are more important.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nothing beats election day rumours. 😊

    Just seen this one

    https://twitter.com/Stefan_Boscia/status/1390330751078502402

    Seriously.......

    A Labour campaign source said “voter turnout is very low” across the capital and that Khan’s camp were “concerned”.
    Just imagine waking up and finding that the new Mayor of London is . . . Count Binface. 😂
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Anecdote from the front line:

    "Our Labour voters are not turning out"

    So there we go.

    Why?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    On a Covid point - I was Zeneca'd around midday today - so far not much sign of side effects - maybe slightly more tired than usual but at my age would I even notice.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    PS managed to convince my girlfriend to vote 👏

    Does she know of your newly found desire for Jessie Jo Jo Jo Jo
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    PS managed to convince my girlfriend to vote 👏

    You've only just started on a new career and now already looking for another - get out the vote consultant.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
    He’s Oswald Mosley with a pisspoor singing voice.
    He's really not. It's just a measure of how the Left has triumphed, until now, in the Culture Wars, that you can even conceive of saying such a thing.

    Lozza Fox is a man who mildly and sometimes clumsily demurs at more extreme Woke Shibboleths. That's it. He doesn't worship PC sacred cows.

    How does this make him.... Oswald Mosley?

    THIS is Oswald Mosley. Hitler salutes, Nuremburg rallies, actual self-confessed Fascism

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPB1jy4vmFA

    THIS is Laurence Fox


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jhQsp4Ow0A

    He's a bit of a dickhead, he is not a Nazi. That is wanky hyperbole
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, Yvette seems to have the first name factor based on responses here, which some people persist in pretending is like how people think Boris is their best mate or some such rubbish, so she is clearly the candidate to go for based on that alone.

    One day you will understand the point I make about the Boris brand and how the ubiquitous use of his first name in a spirit of false intimacy is a key part of it.

    But until then you will write more posts like this.
    I understand the point completely, I just think it is fundamentally flawed, insulting to the electorate by suggesting one element of a person's brand is so powerful, and therefore disagree with it and so like to make fun of it.

    That people have indeed being mentioning Yvette (and indeed Keir) rather makes the point that a brand is a lot more than some claptrap about false intimacy - since even if a politician gets known by an 'intimate' name, it is not enough on its own.

    Put simply, yes, people calling him Boris is part of his brand, but I think it is utterly absurd to suggest that merely using the name is as powerful as you appear to think it is, even when people who detest him use it, and I personally think obsession with people using the name he is known by is ridiculous and focusing on the wrong thing. How much energy wasted by people moaning about others calling the man Boris?

    We disagree about that and will continue to do so, so no, there will be no enlightenment as the point is pretty darn easy to grasp. It's ok to disagree.

    But thank you for 'one day you will understand', that certainly helps makes your point.
    The inanity of people obsessing over someone's first name is completely ridiculous.

    People have been talking about Keir and Yvette, Joe and more.

    Its 2021, people use first names quite frequently. Why people act like we're still in the 1950s is beyond me.
    Thanks Phil.
    Precisely, Al. :smile:
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I think it depends on the result. If the Tories squeak it I would say no big surprise. If the rumours that Labour might get less than half their 2019 vote have any truth in them then it would be bordering on a disaster.

    Basically a Tory win of 4k or more would be really bad.

    If Labour really have less than half of their 2019 vote in Hartlepool it potentially puts the South of England into play for Labour if the polls are right and their support is still in the 35% range. Those votes must be somewhere.
    Or the national vote includes a lot of Labour voters who are not turning out today for whatever reason. In local elections differential turnout is key.
    I think that's certainly the case. The young are certainly not bothering to vote. Almost all of my friends from university, primarily Labour supporters, have not bothered to vote today, anecdotally.
    Hardly surprising, as (at least in US) younger voters are the least likely to actually vote of any age group.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
    He’s Oswald Mosley with a pisspoor singing voice.
    He's really not. It's just a measure of how the Left has triumphed, until now, in the Culture Wars, that you can even conceive of saying such a thing.

    Lozza Fox is a man who mildly and sometimes clumsily demurs at more extreme Woke Shibboleths. That's it. He doesn't worship PC sacred cows.

    How does this make him.... Oswald Mosley?

    THIS is Oswald Mosley. Hitler salutes, Nuremburg rallies, actual self-confessed Fascism

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPB1jy4vmFA

    THIS is Laurence Fox


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jhQsp4Ow0A

    He's a bit of a dickhead, he is not a Nazi. That is wanky hyperbole
    Exactly. Spot on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1390392399365554181?s=19

    Question for lawyers, do judges like it when defendants scream "fuck you" at them repeatedly?

    Generally not, they don't even like it when I do that as counsel.
    "With respect, my lord, I fear that your last pronouncement lacks objective reasoning" doesn't work?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302

    So, I voted Lib Dem. I'm now on the gin as I try and come to terms with it.

    Do I get a free pair of sandals now from OGH or @IanB2 ?

    You're getting a volley of abuse from HYUFD for rejecting the faith.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well voting is beyond brisk in my village. Over 60% turnout at 8pm and going like a fair. Can't say that this is good news for Unionists. The army of the dead (in the head) that follow Nicola have apparently risen from their pits. Bah.

    Is high turnout definitely good for the nats?
    Yes. The Tory vote always turns out. Whether it wins or not depends on how many SNP supporters can be arsed.
    We've lived in interesting times for a few years now.

    Scotland is all that's left to stop it getting boring in the next few years. Sorry, but all our entertainment is resting upon you.
    Oh bugger. I think I have had enough politics for a while.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Making it up as they go along......

    BERLIN — Germany Thursday opened up the use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine for everyone over the age of 18 in order to speed up immunization efforts, Health Minister Jens Spahn announced.

    Speaking at a press conference in Berlin following talks with Germany's 16 state-level health ministers, Spahn said the vaccine should become available to all, regardless of their medical history.

    "We agreed today to completely abolish the prioritization of AstraZeneca's vaccine — this means that when vaccinations are administered in doctors' offices, it is the doctors who decide who is to be vaccinated and when, at their own discretion," he said, adding that "the vaccine can only be administered after the patient has been informed [about potential risks] by the doctor and an individual decision has been made."


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-allows-oxford-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-to-all-adults/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
    He’s Oswald Mosley with a pisspoor singing voice.
    He's no such thing. In many respects he's still a bit of a hippy liberal, but not on Wokeness and the right to say whatever the f-ck you think.

    Silly post.
    He’s decided to monetise his mid-life crisis by professional race baiting.

    Disappointed in you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Anecdote from the front line:

    "Our Labour voters are not turning out"

    So there we go.

    Why?
    Well SKS making excuses as to why he lost before the polls even opened wasn't a great look.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Hartlepool
    1945:Rose
    1950:Rose
    1951:Rose
    1955:Rose
    1959: Blue circle (by 182 votes)
    1964:Rose
    1966:Rose
    1970:Rose
    1974:Rose
    1974:Rose
    1979:Rose
    1983:Rose
    1987:Rose
    1992:Rose
    1997:Rose
    2001:Rose
    2004:Rose
    2005:Rose
    2010:Rose
    2015:Rose
    2017:Rose
    2019:Rose
    2021: Blue circle (by 20%)

    it’s Starmers fault.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    So, I voted Lib Dem. I'm now on the gin as I try and come to terms with it.

    Do I get a free pair of sandals now from OGH or @IanB2 ?

    You're getting a volley of abuse from HYUFD for rejecting the faith.
    Nah, I believe he has been forgiving of people dipping their toe into voting non-Tory in local and mayoral elections. Only GE's count #CataloniaIsSpain

    (All in good fun, HYUFD, and fingers crossed for your victory today).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1390392399365554181?s=19

    Question for lawyers, do judges like it when defendants scream "fuck you" at them repeatedly?

    Generally not, they don't even like it when I do that as counsel.
    You need to know the right Hizzoner.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Leon said:

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
    He’s Oswald Mosley with a pisspoor singing voice.
    He's really not. It's just a measure of how the Left has triumphed, until now, in the Culture Wars, that you can even conceive of saying such a thing.

    Lozza Fox is a man who mildly and sometimes clumsily demurs at more extreme Woke Shibboleths. That's it. He doesn't worship PC sacred cows.

    How does this make him.... Oswald Mosley?

    THIS is Oswald Mosley. Hitler salutes, Nuremburg rallies, actual self-confessed Fascism

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPB1jy4vmFA

    THIS is Laurence Fox


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jhQsp4Ow0A

    He's a bit of a dickhead, he is not a Nazi. That is wanky hyperbole
    It certainly is. He’s a buffoon but I am partly convinced this is some sort of performance art like the time Joaquin Phoenix became a rapper.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
    He’s Oswald Mosley with a pisspoor singing voice.
    He's really not. It's just a measure of how the Left has triumphed, until now, in the Culture Wars, that you can even conceive of saying such a thing.

    Lozza Fox is a man who mildly and sometimes clumsily demurs at more extreme Woke Shibboleths. That's it. He doesn't worship PC sacred cows.

    How does this make him.... Oswald Mosley?

    THIS is Oswald Mosley. Hitler salutes, Nuremburg rallies, actual self-confessed Fascism

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPB1jy4vmFA

    THIS is Laurence Fox


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jhQsp4Ow0A

    He's a bit of a dickhead, he is not a Nazi. That is wanky hyperbole
    Nor is Fox (Lozza not Foxy) cabinet material, as was Mosley.

    As a Labourite, though, NOT as a BUFer. Though of course he'd likely have been at the top of the High Table (for what it would have been worth) IF his buddy Adolf had made it across the Channel . . .
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,638

    DavidL said:

    Well voting is beyond brisk in my village. Over 60% turnout at 8pm and going like a fair. Can't say that this is good news for Unionists. The army of the dead (in the head) that follow Nicola have apparently risen from their pits. Bah.

    Why does everyone seem to think "Nicola" walks on water in Scotland?

    I can't stand her. Lots of people I know round here can't. Yet, people throw themselves down in front of her north of the border.

    What is it? Her earnestness? Her utter obsession with nothing but politics since the age of twelve? Her annoying voice? Her professional - but transparent - obfuscation or any criticism? Her poor performance and delivery in office? Her jerky head-bobbing whenever she's interviewed? Her habit of angrily spitting out "The Tories" three times in every sentence? Her total lack of a sense of humour?

    Do tell.
    We can have the Independence vote in 2022. 'Yes' will lose 42-58. Then we don't hear of SNP ever again. Good news.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Has anyone got any news on turnout in Scotland and Wales? You might expect higher turnout for these as the elections are more important.

    Only from my village which I posted earlier but was 60%+ at 8.00pm which is high.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    DavidL said:

    Well voting is beyond brisk in my village. Over 60% turnout at 8pm and going like a fair. Can't say that this is good news for Unionists. The army of the dead (in the head) that follow Nicola have apparently risen from their pits. Bah.

    Why does everyone seem to think "Nicola" walks on water in Scotland?

    I can't stand her. Lots of people I know round here can't. Yet, people throw themselves down in front of her north of the border.

    What is it? Her earnestness? Her utter obsession with nothing but politics since the age of twelve? Her annoying voice? Her professional - but transparent - obfuscation or any criticism? Her poor performance and delivery in office? Her jerky head-bobbing whenever she's interviewed? Her habit of angrily spitting out "The Tories" three times in every sentence? Her total lack of a sense of humour?

    Do tell.
    Hm. For somebody who just posted that their first choice in London would have been Laurence Fox (which surprised me), I'm not sure you've strengthened your position to tear apart Sturgeon.

    As an aside, although I disagree with much of what you say on 'woke' matters, I respect your views and you often make them well. But Laurence Fox? Really? He's not just anti-woke - he's a full on anti-vaxxer, Covid denier, let it rip merchant.
    Climate change denier too

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1360254751607316483?s=20
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    So, I voted Lib Dem. I'm now on the gin as I try and come to terms with it.

    Do I get a free pair of sandals now from OGH or @IanB2 ?

    You're getting a volley of abuse from HYUFD for rejecting the faith.
    In fairness, I could only bring myself to half-vote Lib Dem - so I did so with just one "slash", not a cross, and I defaced my ballot with "END COVID LAWS" as well.

    I don't care too much if it's counted or not. And I totally defaced my PCC ballot paper.

    Yes, it's childish, but it's my vote and it's a silly year so... a plague on all your houses.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,796
    IanB2 said:

    Anna Soubry: Who would I vote for if I lived in #Hartlepool Don’t want to say and scupper his chances .... !

    Re-posted from end of last thread:

    1. There's no vacancy as leader of the Labour Party. Starmer isn't going anywhere for at least a year, even if tonight's results are horrendous. And there won't be a challenge.

    2. Don't forget that Starmer won the leadership election hands down. The idea that there's any appetite for somebody like Burgon from the membership is ludicrous.

    3. If Starmer were to jack it in, I'd expect both Rayner and Nandy to stand. Nandy would win, because she'd run a better, more articulate campaign and has the ability to appeal to all factions in the party apart from the far, far left who are, as can be seen from the last leader/deputy election, in retreat.

    I would have agreed with you right up until the conversation where a very good source told me that she is going for him. An apocalypse-o-fuck result and then the deputy saying time's up? I agree that had a challenge come from Dicky B then it would have been laughed off. Not from Rayner.
    I wonder if your very good source is as reliable as my very good sources that tell me Rayner has absolutely no intention of challenging Starmer, whatever the outcomes of today's elections. I write as a current Labour member, rather than as a Lib Dem who, understandably, seeks to slag off Labour at every opportunity.
    Perhaps she won't. But I trust my sources when it comes to campaigning on Teesside and the various big beats who have been involved which is all of them. I don't think people get just how "oh fuck" it is. Labour are going to lose every election they are fighting tonight on Teesside to the Tories. Every single one. Council seats, PCC, Mayoral, MP. Unless their polling numbers are wrong.

    This is a betting site. I am providing anonymised tips when I get them from the heart of the campaign there. As always, DYOR.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Anecdote from the front line:

    "Our Labour voters are not turning out"

    So there we go.

    Where is that ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929

    I disagree completely that its no big deal if the Tories win tonight, its massive. For quite a few reasons.

    1. These Brexit Party voters are not-Tories, traditionally Labour, that were not prepared to vote Tory even in 2019 to "Get Brexit Done".
    2. This is far from the only seat that would fall if BXP voters go blue. It'll be the case for eg Yvette Cooper's too.
    3. A baseline majority would be 110 instead of 80 if Hartlepool and comparable falls.
    4. This is midterms, the government should be losing.
    5. It shows that "Get Brexit Done" wasn't a one-off two years ago.
    6. It shows that Corbyn wasn't the be all and end all either.
    7. Even if the political layout "just" keeps the landscape the same as it was in 2019, that's incredibly good news for the Tories.
    I sort of agree, and sort of don't.

    There will be no Brexit Party in 2024. And had they not stood in 2019, we can reasonably assume that Hartlepool would have been a Conservative gain then.

    Hartlepool was also one of the most pro-Brexit constituencies in the entire country, and the Conservative Party has delivered Brexit.

    And one would expect that the government should - at this moment in time - be getting lots of credit for their handling of vaccines (and particularly when compared to our friends over the water).

    So, them winning this seat is a big deal, but not *that* big a deal. If on the morning after the last General Election in 2019, you'd asked 'which seat would be most vulnerable to a Conservative gain in the event of a by-election?', it would have been hard not to choose this one.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,796
    Though I did have to go and get a whisky to drink whilst watching the phone call I was just video called to witness... :o:D
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    FPT

    If Yvette is the answer you're asking the wrong questions.

    Been saying for a long time the Tories didn't succeed by retreading those who were leftover from the past. Clarke would have made an amazing Shadow Chancellor, but the Tories were ready when Cameron & Osborne were ready. Similarly Brown himself was not a retread from the seventies.

    Cooper is a Brownite retread from the past. Where's their Osborne? Where's their Brown?

    I agree. As many on here may have surmised I am not a natural friend of Labour. But it worries me that the best they can do is mediocre combiner minister from over a decade ago. Where is the new blood?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,796
    Taz said:

    Anecdote from the front line:

    "Our Labour voters are not turning out"

    So there we go.

    Where is that ?
    The United Kingdom.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    MaxPB said:

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
    That's fairly disappointing tbh, CR. Lozza has become the worst kind of reactionary right wing rent-a-gob and has been courting anti-vaxxers. He goes well beyond "saying it how it is" and will hopefully come very close to last place.
    Don't forget his bullshit about denigrating our antecedents and their role in the world wars.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51233734
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Why on Earth would anyone vote “Lozza”?
    I think we can safely ignore Leon’s attempts to pose as a sentient poster.

    He'd have been my first choice in London too.
    He’s Oswald Mosley with a pisspoor singing voice.
    He's no such thing. In many respects he's still a bit of a hippy liberal, but not on Wokeness and the right to say whatever the f-ck you think.

    Silly post.
    He’s decided to monetise his mid-life crisis by professional race baiting.

    Disappointed in you.
    He's doing no such thing. And nor is he doing any "race baiting".

    I'm disappointed in you for writing something so nonsensical.

    @Leon has got him dead on. Read what he said.
This discussion has been closed.