The extreme partisan wing of the PB Tories is clearly rattled by the prospect of Yvette as Shadchan. They have raised HIPS - a scheme launched some 14 years ago.
For a year we’ve heard the PB Tories whinge that “Yvette Cooper would have been better”, and at the first rumour she might be back it’s, “oh but what about HIPS?”
Their obsession with her HIPS comes across as a bit sexist, tbh.
She was very proud of them , always going on about hips and how we would all love them..she brought hips to.our attention...
Rumours from a source that Yvette Cooper is the next SC, all but confirmed
That will mean three years of pb Tories banging on about HIPS. Surely there must be someone else?
I was very involved with hips including 18 meetings at her department
Both Yvette and her civil servants just did not listen to advice as they knew best
And of course hips failed
I am surprised if she become Shadow Chancellor when Rachel Reeves seems the shoe in
Hips don't lie - but they also added no tangible benefit to home buying. People need professional advice from qualified surveyors for real issues not simplified reports from proforma.
Held my nose and went SNP constituency and Alba List, independence is my first concern. Hoping Sturgeon gets dumped quick mind you.
Not really the time to be switching leaders of the movement right after winning a majority at Holyrood is it?
One can only hope, unfortunately it would be likely Macbeth would be the replacement
Cometh the hour, cometh the Kate Forbes. I don't agree with her politics but as class an act as Nicola. Odd that the SNP can field more top leadership material than the Labour party.
Now had a second person being delayed meeting me due to having a long queue at their polling station in Edinburgh.
Turnout is officially brisk.
There was a constant queue of 50-60 at my Edinburgh Central polling station, mainly due to the very social distancing and one way route (or maybe that’s just Edinburgh....)
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Can't tell you. Don't know when you will die! I suspect that they will be around longer than we think. I mean look at the opposition and discussions hear around Tories in 2003. Seven years from power after financial crash.
Agree. She isn't dull, she isn't dour, she has charm - a vital quality, and just the lightest sprinkling of magic spirit - like Nicola. She is miles off Boris quality, but so is everyone (except Nicola, and they happen to play in different divisions). In that way it's just like the Blair era.
PM's first name has been a significant political plus for him. Just like Winston was for his idol & (alleged) role model. (Even though for starters it reminded Brits of a TV sitcom cat?)
Having an unusual (but not offputting) name greatly facilitated Mr. Johnson's entry into the elite group of politicos who are instantly and widely called & recognized by ONE name.
For example (here's a PB pop quiz!)
> (Honest) Abe > Pam > Dizzy > (Pushful) Joe > Teddy > Winston (or Winnie) > Ike > Rocky > Tony > (The) Donald
The extreme partisan wing of the PB Tories is clearly rattled by the prospect of Yvette as Shadchan. They have raised HIPS - a scheme launched some 14 years ago.
Except on current trends Yvette is unlikely even to be in parliament in 2024.
1,200 majority with 8,000 UKIP votes last time out. In the North.
And two and a half years of Cooper curling her lip about Boris's curtains.
Game over.
I fear you might be right. I live in her constituency, and vote for her. But many (most?) people don’t have a good word to say about her. She gets a lot of shit for things the council does that she doesn’t have responsibility for, which is a bit unfair but hey, that’s politics.
Plus of course she’s a Remainer, a most foul view hereabouts.
I’ve mentioned before where I live it’s always been 3 Labour cllrs. Last time a Lib Dem got in, today I expect a second one to get in. Doesn’t bode well.
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Toby Perkins MP @tobyperkinsmp · Apr 6 Instead of spending his members’ money running tiny polls to undermine @UKLabour campaign, @DaveWardGS could more usefully get himself up to Hartlepool. A lot more than 42% of voters I’ve met are voting for @PaulWilliamsLAB
I exercised my prerogative at lunchtime and then went to vote - no queue and well organised.
One of the local Labour Councillors outside asked me if I was considering voting for Sadiq. I told her I'd considered it...
Mrs Stodge has just been over to vote, I presume for Count Binface of whom she is a big fan. She said there was a small queue but our road got called and she was able to jump ahead of the line - it helps sometimes to be in a cul-de-sac.
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Toby Perkins MP @tobyperkinsmp · Apr 6 Instead of spending his members’ money running tiny polls to undermine @UKLabour campaign, @DaveWardGS could more usefully get himself up to Hartlepool. A lot more than 42% of voters I’ve met are voting for @PaulWilliamsLAB
How do polls undermine the campaign when also insisting that things are going well in the campaign?
It's like how people confidently state media influence is dead, then complain about media influence being why they lost.
I exercised my prerogative at lunchtime and then went to vote - no queue and well organised.
One of the local Labour Councillors outside asked me if I was considering voting for Sadiq. I told her I'd considered it...
Mrs Stodge has just been over to vote, I presume for Count Binface of whom she is a big fan. She said there was a small queue but our road got called and she was able to jump ahead of the line - it helps sometimes to be in a cul-de-sac.
Not supposed to canvass people outside polling stations!!!
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Can't tell you. Don't know when you will die! I suspect that they will be around longer than we think. I mean look at the opposition and discussions hear around Tories in 2003. Seven years from power after financial crash.
Back in 1992, after their fourth win, the Times pompously described the Conservatives as "the Natural Party of Government" and Labour as "the Natural Party of Opposition".
It may simply be hubris which does for the Conservatives - the belief they will always win, they will never lose.
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Pretty simple. At the latest, when someone leading Labour convinces the electorate of these things: that they are making a better offer than the Tories, that they are better at running the country, that they don't hate or regard as 'scum' the people whose switched votes they need, that they have a genuine and heartfelt support for the Brexit project, that they have purged the left permanently, that they understand why good people have deserted them, that they are unwoke and that they love their country. May it be soon.
Until then, as for me I will vote Labour locally (I have just done so) but never in a General Election.
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Toby Perkins MP @tobyperkinsmp · Apr 6 Instead of spending his members’ money running tiny polls to undermine @UKLabour campaign, @DaveWardGS could more usefully get himself up to Hartlepool. A lot more than 42% of voters I’ve met are voting for @PaulWilliamsLAB
How do polls undermine the campaign when also insisting that things are going well in the campaign?
It's like how people confidently state media influence is dead, then complain about media influence being why they lost.
They dont
Just pointing out a month ago this MP was confident Lab were doing well but then again as someone pointed out
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
Burgon has been campaigning for months. The left dislike Rayner intensely.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
She also won the Deputy Leadership comfortably. Indeed I think she would have won the leadership if she had stood instead of her flat mate.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
Angela would be one - there are lots - who would shore up the vote in most of the urban and Bame seats they already hold but would struggle both in the posh seats they hold and in almost all the ones they need to win. Though TBF she would do streets better than Burgon, who has no idea that he is the problem not the solution.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
She also won the Deputy Leadership comfortably. Indeed I think she would have won the leadership if she had stood instead of her flat mate.
She fell out with left. She even said nice things about Blair.
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Sad to say but not anytime soon ! With a generally arse licking Bozo press and a BBC now just turning into the media wing of no 10 it’s all rather troubling.
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
As it happens I was just looking at historic regional GVA trends.
There’s a definite inflection point from around 2010, ie the GFC and austerity.
Who did badly in this period, ie got relatively poorer? Most of the country, but especially the northern rust belt.
Who did well, ie got relatively richer? London preeminently, but also Herts/Beds/Cambs, Manchester/Cheshire, Birmingham/Solihull.
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Can't tell you. Don't know when you will die! I suspect that they will be around longer than we think. I mean look at the opposition and discussions hear around Tories in 2003. Seven years from power after financial crash.
Back in 1992, after their fourth win, the Times pompously described the Conservatives as "the Natural Party of Government" and Labour as "the Natural Party of Opposition".
It may simply be hubris which does for the Conservatives - the belief they will always win, they will never lose.
On topic, the premise of the thread doesn't hold up. The fall in home ownership since its peak around the millennium has been associated with rising Conservative vote shares in general elections. There is a negative correlation, not the positive one the thread assumes. So other factors are clearly far more important. It won't be home ownership that does for the Conservatives.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
I would probably vote for her.
Needs to be a woman IMO
Who would win if it was Rayner v Nandy in your opinion?
My son has been busy nagging his class mates to vote today. Lib Dem in NE Fife, Tory in Angus South and North and Labour in Dundee East and West. Whichever Unionist party is the closest.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
She also won the Deputy Leadership comfortably. Indeed I think she would have won the leadership if she had stood instead of her flat mate.
She fell out with left. She even said nice things about Blair.
Yes, she has a very political ability to not accumulate enemies. I don't think she will have a problem with either left or right. She is able to unite the feuding factions.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
I would probably vote for her.
Needs to be a woman IMO
Who would win if it was Rayner v Nandy in your opinion?
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
I would probably vote for her.
Needs to be a woman IMO
Who would win if it was Rayner v Nandy in your opinion?
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
She also won the Deputy Leadership comfortably. Indeed I think she would have won the leadership if she had stood instead of her flat mate.
She fell out with left. She even said nice things about Blair.
Yes, she has a very political ability to not accumulate enemies. I don't think she will have a problem with either left or right. She is able to unite the feuding factions.
Some of the momentum/Corbyn lot hate her. Apart from that, yeah.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
Burgon has been campaigning for months. The left dislike Rayner intensely.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
Burgon has been campaigning for months. The left dislike Rayner intensely.
The "left" - the mass of members of elected Jezbollah twice - voted en-masse for Starmer. If he is encouraged to fall on a sword held by him for Angela, I can see her being able to coalesce a movement.
Nothing else from the phone call I took was a surprise. Apart from Angela planning to move on the leadership once Labour lose Hartlepool and Teesside and West Midlands and a stack of councils and go backwards in Scotland and and and.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
Burgon has been campaigning for months. The left dislike Rayner intensely.
Rumours from a source that Yvette Cooper is the next SC, all but confirmed
God help them.
To be honest, she's got to be better than - WHO? Ken Dodd? - who's never said anything or done anything ever.
Anyone still breathing would be better than that.
Let’s be honest, Dodds got the job because she wouldn’t be a threat to Starmer. Cooper might be.
What a bizarre theory. Almost LOL’d.
The first bit, the second bit, or both?
Dodds always seemed an odd choice given no one knew who she was and we know even less about her now.
Cooper, on the other hand, is an experienced performer who would give the government a harder time.
Difference is we know Cooper is totally crap. Dodds cannot possibly be worse.
And for as long as Labour think the solution is a Blairite metropolitan remainer they won't regain power. Not that a socialist is either.
Half of the Labour Party are fighting the war from a previous generation. The other half are fighting the one from the last century.
They need a northerner (or a Scott) with a bit of British bulldog grit about them.
King of the North, King of the North. They need him back but he is about to be re-elected by acclamation in Manchester and is not showing a lot of interest in going back to opposition without running anything.
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Can't tell you. Don't know when you will die! I suspect that they will be around longer than we think. I mean look at the opposition and discussions hear around Tories in 2003. Seven years from power after financial crash.
Back in 1992, after their fourth win, the Times pompously described the Conservatives as "the Natural Party of Government" and Labour as "the Natural Party of Opposition".
It may simply be hubris which does for the Conservatives - the belief they will always win, they will never lose.
Absolutely the problem is that the civil war in the Labour party has left the opposition looking like they couldn't run a stall at a car boot sale. Starmer is as charming as a kick in the nuts and Dodds looks very reminiscent of a woman I had a business meeting with in Glastonbury. When I asked her to comment on the legal document she had signed previously she tipped her cup up and consulted the tea leaves. In 1992 labour almost won, and they had some really good potential ministers.
Rumours from a source that Yvette Cooper is the next SC, all but confirmed
God help them.
To be honest, she's got to be better than - WHO? Ken Dodd? - who's never said anything or done anything ever.
Anyone still breathing would be better than that.
Let’s be honest, Dodds got the job because she wouldn’t be a threat to Starmer. Cooper might be.
What a bizarre theory. Almost LOL’d.
The first bit, the second bit, or both?
Dodds always seemed an odd choice given no one knew who she was and we know even less about her now.
Cooper, on the other hand, is an experienced performer who would give the government a harder time.
Difference is we know Cooper is totally crap. Dodds cannot possibly be worse.
And for as long as Labour think the solution is a Blairite metropolitan remainer they won't regain power. Not that a socialist is either.
Half of the Labour Party are fighting the war from a previous generation. The other half are fighting the one from the last century.
They need a northerner (or a Scott) with a bit of British bulldog grit about them.
King of the North, King of the North. They need him back but he is about to be re-elected by acclamation in Manchester and is not showing a lot of interest in going back to opposition without running anything.
Rumours from a source that Yvette Cooper is the next SC, all but confirmed
God help them.
To be honest, she's got to be better than - WHO? Ken Dodd? - who's never said anything or done anything ever.
Anyone still breathing would be better than that.
Let’s be honest, Dodds got the job because she wouldn’t be a threat to Starmer. Cooper might be.
What a bizarre theory. Almost LOL’d.
The first bit, the second bit, or both?
Dodds always seemed an odd choice given no one knew who she was and we know even less about her now.
Cooper, on the other hand, is an experienced performer who would give the government a harder time.
Difference is we know Cooper is totally crap. Dodds cannot possibly be worse.
And for as long as Labour think the solution is a Blairite metropolitan remainer they won't regain power. Not that a socialist is either.
Half of the Labour Party are fighting the war from a previous generation. The other half are fighting the one from the last century.
They need a northerner (or a Scot) with a bit of British bulldog grit about them.
Without an extensive coalition with other parties, I have to say I think Labour may not make it whatever the leader. There's a very substantial centre-left to left vote in this country, but it's incredibly fragmented. A centre-left coalition may only be able to get in with different target candidates in Bath and Bolton.
Unless..Rayner, Starmer or Nandy work out how to channel that Wilsonian energy, from Labour outwards.
If you’re going to need to hold onto northern Labour seats you need someone who voters there feel understands them . And someone who will be less polite and call out Johnson for the liar he is. I like Starmer but he needs to get down into the gutter and fight the Tories at their own game ,if he’s not willing to then pass the mantle to someone who will tell it like it is .
I exercised my prerogative at lunchtime and then went to vote - no queue and well organised.
One of the local Labour Councillors outside asked me if I was considering voting for Sadiq. I told her I'd considered it...
Mrs Stodge has just been over to vote, I presume for Count Binface of whom she is a big fan. She said there was a small queue but our road got called and she was able to jump ahead of the line - it helps sometimes to be in a cul-de-sac.
Not supposed to canvass people outside polling stations!!!
Yes, well, this is Newham and the rules aren't universally enforced. Mrs Stodge reported the pro-Committee side in the Governance Referendum were handing out leaflets to people in the queue to vote.
When I used to do telling in Cornwall, it was so much more civilised. I would for the most part enjoy non-political conversations with the Conservative teller as we dealt with the trickle of voters. We'd help each other with the rush and exchange polling card numbers and the like.
It was always my experience if you avoided politics, the Conservative and occasionally Independent tellers were perfectly sensible.
I often wonder if we could take politics out of the political process whether we'd all be much better off.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
I would probably vote for her.
Needs to be a woman IMO
Who would win if it was Rayner v Nandy in your opinion?
The Tories?
Yes. The key question is who has got the talent bordering on genius to take on the Boris government. Looking at the absolute top talent post Churchill (1945 a special case!) Thatcher was never defeated by Labour; Blair was never defeated by the Tories. Both were essentially defeated first by hubris and elements in their own party.
At the moment Boris is untouchable by his party (early days of course) and intends to avoid hubris by being so solidly centrist. Obviously he can defeat himself, but as it seems now, he both needs to make a terrible mistake or mistakes and have a working opposition that looks like a government. So the key need is someone who can go 15 rounds with Boris day after day and come out on top. SKS doesn't. Does Labour have anyone who looks convincing in that role?
I confidently predicted a tory win in Hartlepool, and backed them at evens not long after the announcement to do so, I also predict them to win the next GE, but what I would like to know from others on here, is when will the electorate finally see through this shambles of a government, led by the clown in chief.Someone on here said that the voters want to give labour a kick in, but they haven't been in power for 11 years, will they ever see they have been sold a pup in brexit, and that most of the ills in society have been caused by 11 yrs of an unnecessary austerity, by the tories, not the opposition, someone please tell me I wont die before we get rid of these awful lot
Interesting post.
All good things must come to an end, even the Johnsonian Conservatives. I recall in the late 80s and certainly after 1992, The Sunday Telegraph gaming who would be the Conservative Prime Minister in 1996,. 2000 and 2004. I think they even had 2008 pencilled in as a Tory win.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
It would be difficult as deputy leader to challenge though wouldn't it?
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
It would be difficult as deputy leader to challenge though wouldn't it?
I think a Starmer resignation is more likely than a challenge.
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
I thought Labour were value here at Evens.
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
Why think that in the middle of a pandemic, with a world leading vaccination campaign and during a generational shift in politics from economy to culture, things can be predicted by what happens normally?
Because, as with regular government, many people seem quite cross about the way the pandemic has progressed. And while I agree with the 'shift in politics from economy to culture', this isn't a sudden thing. Neither of these should take away from the general rule that those angry about the government are generally more motivated to vote than those content with them. But what this feels like to me (from the vantage point of 100 miles away, so what do I know) is that people are more motivated by voting against Labour. I can't remember when the Tories were in opposition there being the same desire to vote against the Tories at by-elections. A lack of enthusiasm to vote for them, certainly; but the desire to give the Tories a kicking didn't seem to feature in by-elections of the 1997-2010 period.
Well lets see if its national or local. I'd say mostly local so mostly Brexit/culture driven.
And will culture voters switch between blue and red in mid terms/by elections in the same way economic voters did? It seems pretty unlikely to me that they would - they will cheer on their team.
Yes, but even in the heyday of government by-election losses, there were relatively few switchers - more a case of the opposition parties being better able to get their vote out and the government's finding it hard to muster the enthusiasm. You would have thought the same rules would apply whatever the nature of the split - it's just the nature of being on government that you have to disappoint people, whether economically or culturally.
So I still find a government gain in a by-election remarkable, even allowing for large scale transferability between BXP and CON.
But on top of the special BXP circumstances you have special pandemic circumstances - opposition blotted out and the government vaccine triumph. So this is exceptional times two. Double special. A Labour hold would have been a great result for them. As it is - meh.
Re Hartlepool - are you going to be giving it that superforecaster stuff again tomorrow? Can't wait.
☺ - No I'll disappoint by staying low key and concentrating on the next challenge.
If you’re going to need to hold onto northern Labour seats you need someone who voters there feel understands them . And someone who will be less polite and call out Johnson for the liar he is. I like Starmer but he needs to get down into the gutter and fight the Tories at their own game ,if he’s not willing to then pass the mantle to someone who will tell it like it is .
It might cause concerns but labour need a pro Brexit leader
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
I thought Labour were value here at Evens.
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
Why think that in the middle of a pandemic, with a world leading vaccination campaign and during a generational shift in politics from economy to culture, things can be predicted by what happens normally?
Because, as with regular government, many people seem quite cross about the way the pandemic has progressed. And while I agree with the 'shift in politics from economy to culture', this isn't a sudden thing. Neither of these should take away from the general rule that those angry about the government are generally more motivated to vote than those content with them. But what this feels like to me (from the vantage point of 100 miles away, so what do I know) is that people are more motivated by voting against Labour. I can't remember when the Tories were in opposition there being the same desire to vote against the Tories at by-elections. A lack of enthusiasm to vote for them, certainly; but the desire to give the Tories a kicking didn't seem to feature in by-elections of the 1997-2010 period.
Well lets see if its national or local. I'd say mostly local so mostly Brexit/culture driven.
And will culture voters switch between blue and red in mid terms/by elections in the same way economic voters did? It seems pretty unlikely to me that they would - they will cheer on their team.
Yes, but even in the heyday of government by-election losses, there were relatively few switchers - more a case of the opposition parties being better able to get their vote out and the government's finding it hard to muster the enthusiasm. You would have thought the same rules would apply whatever the nature of the split - it's just the nature of being on government that you have to disappoint people, whether economically or culturally.
So I still find a government gain in a by-election remarkable, even allowing for large scale transferability between BXP and CON.
But on top of the special BXP circumstances you have special pandemic circumstances - opposition blotted out and the government vaccine triumph. So this is exceptional times two. Double special. A Labour hold would have been a great result for them. As it is - meh.
Re Hartlepool - are you going to be giving it that superforecaster stuff again tomorrow? Can't wait.
☺ - No I'll disappoint by staying low key and concentrating on the next challenge.
On topic, the premise of the thread doesn't hold up. The fall in home ownership since its peak around the millennium has been associated with rising Conservative vote shares in general elections. There is a negative correlation, not the positive one the thread assumes. So other factors are clearly far more important. It won't be home ownership that does for the Conservatives.
Untrue. Falling home ownership plateaued years ago, last few General Elections have seen rising home ownership.
The extreme partisan wing of the PB Tories is clearly rattled by the prospect of Yvette as Shadchan. They have raised HIPS - a scheme launched some 14 years ago.
For a year we’ve heard the PB Tories whinge that “Yvette Cooper would have been better”, and at the first rumour she might be back it’s, “oh but what about HIPS?”
Very pro Yvette Cooper. However she isn't going to be chancellor unless something very odd happens. Her seat is a Hartlepool, whose result she will watch with interest. YC has a majority of 1300 and the Brexit party got 8000 votes.
Labour is more likely to form a government without YC than to form one with her. Plus should they form a rainbow alliance - their only option - someone droning on SNP bore will have a claim to be SC. And most likely of course is none of these. At the moment there are loads of Tory seats they look more like winning than holding NP and C.
I thought Yvette had Castleford and they weighed her votes.....
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
She also won the Deputy Leadership comfortably. Indeed I think she would have won the leadership if she had stood instead of her flat mate.
She fell out with left. She even said nice things about Blair.
Yes, she has a very political ability to not accumulate enemies. I don't think she will have a problem with either left or right. She is able to unite the feuding factions.
Some of the momentum/Corbyn lot hate her. Apart from that, yeah.
Some of the Momentum and Progress/ Labour First extremists need to compromise
I would be fine with AR
Those who want to get behind Burgon or Philips even though it would completely split the party need to compromise and get behind AR
I've staked an entire £25 today on the elections. Hoping that Count Binface gets above 20,000 votes, at the rather overly long odds of 9/2. Big old field though.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
It would be difficult as deputy leader to challenge though wouldn't it?
I think a Starmer resignation is more likely than a challenge.
Like I said. A sword held in place for him to fall upon. As with Thatcher once your core team have no confidence your choices are sack all the doubters or quit.
I've staked an entire £25 today on the elections. Hoping that Count Binface gets above 20,000 votes, at the rather overly long odds of 9/2. Big old field though.
How long is it until we find they are really the ones behind the politics for all twitter account?
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
She also won the Deputy Leadership comfortably. Indeed I think she would have won the leadership if she had stood instead of her flat mate.
She fell out with left. She even said nice things about Blair.
Yes, she has a very political ability to not accumulate enemies. I don't think she will have a problem with either left or right. She is able to unite the feuding factions.
Some of the momentum/Corbyn lot hate her. Apart from that, yeah.
This is arguing in the wrong register. Labour need a leader who can stop feuding and eliminate the left and all that; but they need someone who can do that before breakfast as a side issue while actually beating Boris daily, saving the union, winning 125 seats at a GE and looking like a better government than the government.
As of now the great general public have no idea of any of their names. Have Labour any idea what a problem they have?
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
Angela would be one - there are lots - who would shore up the vote in most of the urban and Bame seats they already hold but would struggle both in the posh seats they hold and in almost all the ones they need to win. Though TBF she would do streets better than Burgon, who has no idea that he is the problem not the solution.
Burgon is less charming than Starmer. Take that in!
If you’re going to need to hold onto northern Labour seats you need someone who voters there feel understands them . And someone who will be less polite and call out Johnson for the liar he is. I like Starmer but he needs to get down into the gutter and fight the Tories at their own game ,if he’s not willing to then pass the mantle to someone who will tell it like it is .
It might cause concerns but labour need a pro Brexit leader
No it doesn’t. It needs a pro-union, pro-jobs, pro-opportunity leader.
Rehearsing a bad faith Brexit mantra will simply kill off Labour for good.
BETTING POST: Angela Rayner is on manuevers. If there is a challenge to Starmer it won't be that wankshaft Burgon, it will be her. Angela thinks She is the one. Woman. Northern. Authentic.
She also won the Deputy Leadership comfortably. Indeed I think she would have won the leadership if she had stood instead of her flat mate.
She fell out with left. She even said nice things about Blair.
Yes, she has a very political ability to not accumulate enemies. I don't think she will have a problem with either left or right. She is able to unite the feuding factions.
Some of the momentum/Corbyn lot hate her. Apart from that, yeah.
Some of the Momentum and Progress/ Labour First extremists need to compromise
I would be fine with AR
Those who want to get behind Burgon or Philips even though it would completely split the party need to compromise and get behind AR
Angela Rayner is plausible (aside from sounding like like my mum). Poor background. Been there done that, so can talk to the working poor. Pulled herself up and pushed herself through law school, so can talk aspiration. Is northern and authentic and lets be honest isn't remotely an inspirational politician.
Starmer seems to have no political philosophy or instincts and has done nothing to arrest the snail-like pace of Labour's recovery since 2010. Rayner might accelerate that for the leader after her - Labour's Michael Howard to follow IDStarmer.
The extreme partisan wing of the PB Tories is clearly rattled by the prospect of Yvette as Shadchan. They have raised HIPS - a scheme launched some 14 years ago.
For a year we’ve heard the PB Tories whinge that “Yvette Cooper would have been better”, and at the first rumour she might be back it’s, “oh but what about HIPS?”
Very pro Yvette Cooper. However she isn't going to be chancellor unless something very odd happens. Her seat is a Hartlepool, whose result she will watch with interest. YC has a majority of 1300 and the Brexit party got 8000 votes.
Labour is more likely to form a government without YC than to form one with her. Plus should they form a rainbow alliance - their only option - someone droning on SNP bore will have a claim to be SC. And most likely of course is none of these. At the moment there are loads of Tory seats they look more like winning than holding NP and C.
I thought Yvette had Castleford and they weighed her votes.....
Her seat is NP and C and like Hartlepool. Not quite weighing vote territory but dead safe. But not now.
A pollster gave a 17% conservative lead in the most recent constituency poll
Private labour polling indicated they were retaining just 40% of their 2019 vote
The pollster who established the 17% conservative lead said he will never do another constituency poll if Labour win it
Canvassers and the media suggesting today the votes need weighing for the conservatives
Smarkets have just jumped to 92.59% conservative win
Surely a Labour hold would be extraordinary
Objectively, it’s won at 10pm; we just don’t have the proof for a while.
Its fucking won. Question is whether the Tories push through a 5k majority or not. Labour are not turning out. For the by-election, for council seats up for election, for the mayoral, for the PCC. For none of them. All Tory, the only question is by what margin.
Well, Yvette seems to have the first name factor based on responses here, which some people persist in pretending is like how people think Boris is their best mate or some such rubbish, so she is clearly the candidate to go for based on that alone.
One day you will understand the point I make about the Boris brand and how the ubiquitous use of his first name in a spirit of false intimacy is a key part of it.
But until then you will write more posts like this.
Comments
Having an unusual (but not offputting) name greatly facilitated Mr. Johnson's entry into the elite group of politicos who are instantly and widely called & recognized by ONE name.
For example (here's a PB pop quiz!)
> (Honest) Abe
> Pam
> Dizzy
> (Pushful) Joe
> Teddy
> Winston (or Winnie)
> Ike
> Rocky
> Tony
> (The) Donald
Plus of course she’s a Remainer, a most foul view hereabouts.
I’ve mentioned before where I live it’s always been 3 Labour cllrs. Last time a Lib Dem got in, today I expect a second one to get in. Doesn’t bode well.
@tobyperkinsmp
·
Apr 6
Instead of spending his members’ money running tiny polls to undermine
@UKLabour
campaign,
@DaveWardGS
could more usefully get himself up to Hartlepool.
A lot more than 42% of voters I’ve met are voting for
@PaulWilliamsLAB
I exercised my prerogative at lunchtime and then went to vote - no queue and well organised.
One of the local Labour Councillors outside asked me if I was considering voting for Sadiq. I told her I'd considered it...
Mrs Stodge has just been over to vote, I presume for Count Binface of whom she is a big fan. She said there was a small queue but our road got called and she was able to jump ahead of the line - it helps sometimes to be in a cul-de-sac.
And, as an American, am talking out of my ass. So good thing I'm standing up!
It's like how people confidently state media influence is dead, then complain about media influence being why they lost.
It may simply be hubris which does for the Conservatives - the belief they will always win, they will never lose.
Until then, as for me I will vote Labour locally (I have just done so) but never in a General Election.
Just pointing out a month ago this MP was confident Lab were doing well but then again as someone pointed out
https://twitter.com/chipshopchop/status/1379432761535078407/photo/1
I think Con will take the PCC, as there are no council elections in Leicester City, just the blue and yellow bits of Shire Leics
Needs to be a woman IMO
There’s a definite inflection point from around 2010, ie the GFC and austerity.
Who did badly in this period, ie got relatively poorer? Most of the country, but especially the northern rust belt.
Who did well, ie got relatively richer?
London preeminently, but also Herts/Beds/Cambs, Manchester/Cheshire, Birmingham/Solihull.
This is going to be a twitchy couple of days.
Nothing else from the phone call I took was a surprise. Apart from Angela planning to move on the leadership once Labour lose Hartlepool and Teesside and West Midlands and a stack of councils and go backwards in Scotland and and and.
Half of the Labour Party are fighting the war from a previous generation. The other half are fighting the one from the last century.
They need a northerner (or a Scot) with a bit of British bulldog grit about them.
Am I correct in thinking that if Starmer did go in short term (not likely IMO) Burnham couldn't stand (or Khan) as they are not MPs? Just checking.
@SadiqKhan
·
4h
LONDON: reports show that voter turnout is low across our city.
If you love London & what we stand for, please come out and vote for it.
We had a Tory mayor just five years ago - if you don’t vote, they could win again.
Already voted? Please RT and ask friends to #VoteLabour.
Unless..Rayner, Starmer or Nandy work out how to channel that Wilsonian energy, from Labour outwards.
When I used to do telling in Cornwall, it was so much more civilised. I would for the most part enjoy non-political conversations with the Conservative teller as we dealt with the trickle of voters. We'd help each other with the rush and exchange polling card numbers and the like.
It was always my experience if you avoided politics, the Conservative and occasionally Independent tellers were perfectly sensible.
I often wonder if we could take politics out of the political process whether we'd all be much better off.
At the moment Boris is untouchable by his party (early days of course) and intends to avoid hubris by being so solidly centrist. Obviously he can defeat himself, but as it seems now, he both needs to make a terrible mistake or mistakes and have a working opposition that looks like a government. So the key need is someone who can go 15 rounds with Boris day after day and come out on top. SKS doesn't. Does Labour have anyone who looks convincing in that role?
All good things must come to an end, even the Johnsonian Conservatives. I recall in the late 80s and certainly after 1992, The Sunday Telegraph gaming who would be the Conservative Prime Minister in 1996,. 2000 and 2004. I think they even had 2008 pencilled in as a Tory win.
He's got the people's touch and is untainted by the SKS leadership.
I have seen at least one cartoon this week with labour canvassers saying to voters 'so why aren't you white racists voting for us then?'
That needs to change. Despising your own electorate in a different accent is not going to cut it.
I would be fine with AR
Those who want to get behind Burgon or Philips even though it would completely split the party need to compromise and get behind AR
As of now the great general public have no idea of any of their names. Have Labour any idea what a problem they have?
However Williamson is very much tainted by the Corbyn leadership and his own unique brand of odiousness.
It needs a pro-union, pro-jobs, pro-opportunity leader.
Rehearsing a bad faith Brexit mantra will simply kill off Labour for good.
The Count Binface surge is REAL.
If there was one side unenthused about their mayoral campaign it seemed to be the Tories.
If I was a betting man I'd put a monkey on the Tories.
I delivered my postal vote in person in sunny but chilly Primrose Hill
I went:
Lozza
Binface
Tories
Starmer seems to have no political philosophy or instincts and has done nothing to arrest the snail-like pace of Labour's recovery since 2010. Rayner might accelerate that for the leader after her - Labour's Michael Howard to follow IDStarmer.
NEW THREAD
But until then you will write more posts like this.