Angry father calls for Muslim parents to pull their children out of primary school after teacher mistakenly displayed image of Prophet Muhammad in assembly
'avoid accidentally showing images of the Prophet to muslims by simply not carrying images of the Prophet around with you, and/or not having them in the school.
Excellent, Viz tips would make a great thread!
Avoid getting overly worked up by wokeism by not spending 3 hours a day searching out transgender issues in the extreme twittersphere.
Just voted in Woking and I have to say turnout was brisk.
Turnout - non existent in West End (Surrey Heath)
Forgot to bring my own pencil ✏️ too
Turnout Thornbury South Glos surprisingly brisk. Against my better judgement I voted Libdem / Labour for WECA mayor. Dan Norris was the best candidate, and I could support the disappointing Stephen Williams (confusingly up against Tory Samuel Williams) and back him on second preference. I was reluctant to do this as Starmer is a complete washout, and shouldn't be let anywhere near power. In the PCC I supported the independent on principle, policing should not be political
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
Can someone other than Leon summarise the UK/France fish war of 2021? I haven't really paid any attention to it.
The previous treaty (which took 11 years to negotiate between Jersey & France) had a requirement that annually French authorities would submit to Jersey details of their catch. In 20 years they never did.
The current treaty - negotiated between the UK & EU (neither France nor Jersey directly involved) requires that French fishermen can go on catching the same amount of fish as they have historically. Because the treaty was agreed so late there has been a 4 month grace period free for all where the French have caught as much as they like - two years worth of scollops in 4 months for example. They also stopped Jersey fishermen landing their catches in France. To get a licence to carry on fishing, French fishermen have to submit details of their historical catches - which many of them have not, either because they didn't understand the requirement, or because they simply never kept the record, or deliberately low-balled their claimed catch. So when the licences were issued on Friday - reflecting their reported historical catches - many of them were completely snookered.
In the French Parliament a minister observed that as France supplies power to Jersey they have some leverage, to which one Whitehall source remarked "at least the Nazi's kept the lights on". Jersey can keep its own lights on in any case. Macron professed "surprise" which suggests either he or his officials didn't understand what the EU had signed on their behalf.
French fishermen announced a blockade of St Helier - so Boris offered to send two boats to keep an eye on things, which Jersey gratefully accepted.
About 80 boats arrived off St Helier this morning - some sailed in, then sailed out again, delaying a departure, but not stopping it. The RN hung back by about a mile. Two French Navy boats stayed just outside territorial waters. The French fishermen are returning to port, having had their demo.
Looking ahead - if they haven't kept records of what they've caught - or have lied about how much they did catch they are still in trouble.
This is classic "Brexit Red Tape" - just the boot is on the other foot and they don't like it.
OMG! Foreigners are such bastards, aren't they?
What in that detailed, well-informed and balanced account of the issues invites that response?
You are forgetting that @Chris is the smartest person he knows.
Wow. You really didn't have a happy experience at school, did you? Maybe you should get some kind of therapy. It's horrible to think of that kind of thing making people unhappy all through their lives.
Excellent. This is a great example of you being smart.
Can someone other than Leon summarise the UK/France fish war of 2021? I haven't really paid any attention to it.
The previous treaty (which took 11 years to negotiate between Jersey & France) had a requirement that annually French authorities would submit to Jersey details of their catch. In 20 years they never did.
The current treaty - negotiated between the UK & EU (neither France nor Jersey directly involved) requires that French fishermen can go on catching the same amount of fish as they have historically. Because the treaty was agreed so late there has been a 4 month grace period free for all where the French have caught as much as they like - two years worth of scollops in 4 months for example. They also stopped Jersey fishermen landing their catches in France. To get a licence to carry on fishing, French fishermen have to submit details of their historical catches - which many of them have not, either because they didn't understand the requirement, or because they simply never kept the record, or deliberately low-balled their claimed catch. So when the licences were issued on Friday - reflecting their reported historical catches - many of them were completely snookered.
In the French Parliament a minister observed that as France supplies power to Jersey they have some leverage, to which one Whitehall source remarked "at least the Nazi's kept the lights on". Jersey can keep its own lights on in any case. Macron professed "surprise" which suggests either he or his officials didn't understand what the EU had signed on their behalf.
French fishermen announced a blockade of St Helier - so Boris offered to send two boats to keep an eye on things, which Jersey gratefully accepted.
About 80 boats arrived off St Helier this morning - some sailed in, then sailed out again, delaying a departure, but not stopping it. The RN hung back by about a mile. Two French Navy boats stayed just outside territorial waters. The French fishermen are returning to port, having had their demo.
Looking ahead - if they haven't kept records of what they've caught - or have lied about how much they did catch they are still in trouble.
This is classic "Brexit Red Tape" - just the boot is on the other foot and they don't like it.
OMG! Foreigners are such bastards, aren't they?
What in that detailed, well-informed and balanced account of the issues invites that response?
You are forgetting that @Chris is the smartest person he knows.
Wow. You really didn't have a happy experience at school, did you? Maybe you should get some kind of therapy. It's horrible to think of that kind of thing making people unhappy all through their lives.
Excellent. This is a great example of you being smart.
I'm drinking it all in.
Great. Happy to hear you're not so bitter and resentful as it sounded!
PS Please don't feel you necessarily have to have the last word ...
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
I thought Labour were value here at Evens.
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
Can someone other than Leon summarise the UK/France fish war of 2021? I haven't really paid any attention to it.
The previous treaty (which took 11 years to negotiate between Jersey & France) had a requirement that annually French authorities would submit to Jersey details of their catch. In 20 years they never did.
The current treaty - negotiated between the UK & EU (neither France nor Jersey directly involved) requires that French fishermen can go on catching the same amount of fish as they have historically. Because the treaty was agreed so late there has been a 4 month grace period free for all where the French have caught as much as they like - two years worth of scollops in 4 months for example. They also stopped Jersey fishermen landing their catches in France. To get a licence to carry on fishing, French fishermen have to submit details of their historical catches - which many of them have not, either because they didn't understand the requirement, or because they simply never kept the record, or deliberately low-balled their claimed catch. So when the licences were issued on Friday - reflecting their reported historical catches - many of them were completely snookered.
In the French Parliament a minister observed that as France supplies power to Jersey they have some leverage, to which one Whitehall source remarked "at least the Nazi's kept the lights on". Jersey can keep its own lights on in any case. Macron professed "surprise" which suggests either he or his officials didn't understand what the EU had signed on their behalf.
French fishermen announced a blockade of St Helier - so Boris offered to send two boats to keep an eye on things, which Jersey gratefully accepted.
About 80 boats arrived off St Helier this morning - some sailed in, then sailed out again, delaying a departure, but not stopping it. The RN hung back by about a mile. Two French Navy boats stayed just outside territorial waters. The French fishermen are returning to port, having had their demo.
Looking ahead - if they haven't kept records of what they've caught - or have lied about how much they did catch they are still in trouble.
This is classic "Brexit Red Tape" - just the boot is on the other foot and they don't like it.
OMG! Foreigners are such bastards, aren't they?
What in that detailed, well-informed and balanced account of the issues invites that response?
You are forgetting that @Chris is the smartest person he knows.
Wow. You really didn't have a happy experience at school, did you? Maybe you should get some kind of therapy. It's horrible to think of that kind of thing making people unhappy all through their lives.
Excellent. This is a great example of you being smart.
I'm drinking it all in.
Great. Happy to hear you're not so bitter and resentful as it sounded!
PS Please don't feel you necessarily have to have the last word ...
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
I thought Labour were value here at Evens.
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
Why think that in the middle of a pandemic, with a world leading vaccination campaign and during a generational shift in politics from economy to culture, things can be predicted by what happens normally?
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
I thought Labour were value here at Evens.
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
Why think that in the middle of a pandemic, with a world leading vaccination campaign and during a generational shift in politics from economy to culture, things can be predicted by what happens normally?
Because, as with regular government, many people seem quite cross about the way the pandemic has progressed. And while I agree with the 'shift in politics from economy to culture', this isn't a sudden thing. Neither of these should take away from the general rule that those angry about the government are generally more motivated to vote than those content with them. But what this feels like to me (from the vantage point of 100 miles away, so what do I know) is that people are more motivated by voting against Labour. I can't remember when the Tories were in opposition there being the same desire to vote against the Tories at by-elections. A lack of enthusiasm to vote for them, certainly; but the desire to give the Tories a kicking didn't seem to feature in by-elections of the 1997-2010 period.
Went for a walk, got thoroughly soaked in a downpour. Passed one polling place with 5 display placards; the Conservative one had been ripped off both sides. Went on to the next nearest. Same story.
"Why Madrid has rewarded the anti-lockdown Right Lockdown isn’t always a surefire vote winner - just ask Madrileños, who won the latest elections with a landslide
As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.
Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.
Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.
So much life wished away to buy a new build clone. This obsession with getting on the market no matter the cost will stagnate the young. You can't have a dynamic economy if your peoples lives are dedicated to propping up Taylor Wimpey's balance sheet. 5.5x multiples, fucking madness. What next signing up your unborn for another 25 years of servitude to Barratt. The fuckers in government have already been floating the use of what limited DC pensions we have to prop up the sick economy we will inherit.
If Barratt and Taylor Wimpey didn't exist we'd be looking at 10x multiples not 5.5x ones.
Really good trolling. The house builders have helped keep prices down, fucking brilliant. Coming up next Persimmon have a vested interest in building affordable housing.
let 10x multiples happen, make housing truly unaffordable to the majority. We'll just be skipping another 15 years of conservative policy to end up with it anyway. And maybe a few suckers will have avoided the ponzi scheme.
Its time investing in productive assets was made government policy. We could all fund a chip industry at least it will fucking make something and we will be less beholden to the house builders.
No trolling. Absolutely 100% yes the house builders have helped keep prices down, and absolutely 100% yes Persimmon do have a vested interest in building affordable housing. If their homes are unaffordable, they won't get sold, they won't make a profit.
The sole issue is that population has risen much faster than housing - and that the amount of land dripped out to be able to be built in is in many areas insufficient to keep up with population demands. That's not the house builders fault.
If any and all land could be built on, outside of very tightly defined protected areas, then we could have much greater housing capacity, more houses built and more affordable ones too. Trying to constrain land supply is the issue.
Assuming we are entirely supply constrained the house builders will benefit no? They can set the prices at the very limit to which the market is able to support. See the 3-4 bedroom 'executive clones' popping up all over Yorkshire.
Do you not accept that the largest home builders have the UK over a barrel. Yes they will build and drip feed homes into an area. But if you earn anything near an average income your gonna have to tale the most leverage you can afford and whatever inducement the government is offering at the time.
No of course I don't accept that, don't be silly.
Land is drip fed by the Councils, not the builders. If the Councils released huge swathes of land to be built on then if the large home builders didn't build on it then new companies could easily be created that would do so. But they can't, because the land hasn't got permission.
From the LGA: House builders currently have 423,000 homes with permission that they are still to build.
The LGA is working on an online map showing where these are. The full report is balanced and examines a variety of relevant issues:
"Planning is not a barrier to building. Councils are approving nine in 10 planning applications and in 2017 they worked with developers to grant planning permission to over 350,000 homes, an 11-year high. In fact house builders currently have 423,000 homes with permission that they are still to build. This is a positive base reflecting improving economic conditions following the recession"
"Councils are approving nine in 10 planning applications" is another one of those ridiculous meaningless statements to distract. People don't put in applications they know will be refused.
By only allowing a small amount of land to be built on, the applications go in for that land - but all the other land that could have been built on if permission weren't denied never gets applications in the first place!
I think you're ignoring
'house builders currently have 423,000 homes with permission that they are still to build'
Seems like they're doing well enough at the planning stage but suffering when it come to throwing down the concrete.
No I'm not because its completely meaningless gibberish. It takes time to get things built, you can't just snap your fingers and have it done overnight. There will always be a pipeline of houses due to be built. That includes houses where developers have received permission for an entire project but it will take years to build all of them, in phases, even though construction has already begun. It also includes houses where permission has been granted in principle, but construction can't occur yet pending other steps that haven't happened.
Its not like you can grant permission then click your fingers and as if by magic every single house in an entire development is 100% built and ready the day after permission was granted.
There will always be houses in the pipeline, either next to be built, or being built, or stalled for other reasons. But widening the pipeline would allow more houses to be built each year. Saying "build those with permission first" is as much an excuse as those who want everything to be brownfield.
Its never going to be possible to have 0 homes with permission that are still to be built, unless you invent a way to magically build every house in a plan on the very day permission is granted. Is that your solution?
Quite importantly, though, the developers have zero incentive to build enough that the prices drop. I thought as you did until joining a Planning Committee. We approve loads of stuff more than ever gets built, and in a recent one, I asked why they were planning on taking twenty years to build out a large development.
The answer was "market issues." Or, to put another way, if they built it out faster, they would be in danger of having prices drop, or at least not go up. And that hits their bottom line.
Their incentive is to keep prices as high as possible whilst still selling houses. That, around here, is the £300k+ level, minimum.
We've tried swamping the market with approvals, but if developers don't want the prices to fall, they don't have to build rapidly enough to let them.
Which to me, seems not unreasonable behaviour on the part of the developers, who are after all there to maximise shareholder value rather than to deliver a common good (and indeed it should be noted are delivering a common good with affordable housing requirements). Which brings me on to something I often muse on: should the state have a role in developing market housing? My view is that it should. Not only would this get houses built in response to a political demand for them, rather than a market demand, but it would also enable the state to control what the buildings look like. We have discussed previously, I think, that the owner of a house doesn't fully bear the cost of its externalities - principally whether it creates an attractive streetscape. If the state had a role as a developer of market, rather than just affordable, houses, it would be in a much better position to deliver the sort of communities it sees as desirable, and to deliver at the volume it wanted.
Agreed. Quite a few of us have advocated for some time for the state to get into the housebuilding business.
Are you thinking of something as ambitious as a Haussmannian scheme, or just state-funded cheapo housing?
That's the thing about state funded building - you get a public debate over the options. I'd be inclined to be ambitious. If the state can take a fifty year view on HS2 (which could be obsolete in a decade), they ought to take a similarly long view of building stuff people will live in for the next half century.
I'm wondering whether I am in 2021 or 1921.
Just looking at air photos of my town ca 1929 (for other reasons) but noticing the cramped C19 stone tenements versus the semidetached council houses and maisonettes in large gardens, all spanking new or in the process of construction.
Mind you, they also installed a decent public park complete with parkies, putting course, tennis courts, water fountain etc. as per discussion on PB the other day.
Angry father calls for Muslim parents to pull their children out of primary school after teacher mistakenly displayed image of Prophet Muhammad in assembly
I'm genuinely curious - what would happen if the image in question was one purchased from the various shops around the big mosques in Tehran? Yes, not all branches of Islam have the same view of such representations.
Mind you, there is the issue that some branches of Islam deny the existence of other branches....
So who gets to decide?
What possible use to anybody is a non-satirical plain depiction of the prophet Mohammed?
To many muslims, it is very offensive.
Nobody else gives a monkeys. Quite why anybody would have one, or want one, is a mystery to me. Except maybe to antagonise people.
A relative of mine has one - he bought in one of the shops I mention, in Tehran, many, many years ago. 80s, I *think*.
It's mildly interesting - looks rather like Byzantine iconography to me, gold leaf halo round the head, painted on wood etc.
What I find interesting is the blanket statement that all Muslims would find it offensive. This kind of denial of the existence of other branches of the faith reminds me rather of the attitude of the Catholic church to Protestants some little while ago - they weren't another brand of Christian, they were HERETICS!
Don't forget the poor old Cathars!
And the Anglicans. Neither proper Catholics nor full-on Reformed.
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
I thought Labour were value here at Evens.
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
Why think that in the middle of a pandemic, with a world leading vaccination campaign and during a generational shift in politics from economy to culture, things can be predicted by what happens normally?
Because, as with regular government, many people seem quite cross about the way the pandemic has progressed. And while I agree with the 'shift in politics from economy to culture', this isn't a sudden thing. Neither of these should take away from the general rule that those angry about the government are generally more motivated to vote than those content with them. But what this feels like to me (from the vantage point of 100 miles away, so what do I know) is that people are more motivated by voting against Labour. I can't remember when the Tories were in opposition there being the same desire to vote against the Tories at by-elections. A lack of enthusiasm to vote for them, certainly; but the desire to give the Tories a kicking didn't seem to feature in by-elections of the 1997-2010 period.
Well lets see if its national or local. I'd say mostly local so mostly Brexit/culture driven.
And will culture voters switch between blue and red in mid terms/by elections in the same way economic voters did? It seems pretty unlikely to me that they would - they will cheer on their team.
Yet another "fears growing" Covid-19 story turns out to be rubbish...
Tim Spector
@timspector · 1h More ZOE app data from the early days - do you remember all the fuss about NSAIDs and ibuprofen? All rubbish it turns out -published today - thanks for all the info ZOE loggers...
Seattle Times ($) - Washington health-care exec vowed to follow COVID rules. Then he led a 153-person Grand Canyon hike, rangers say.
When park rangers caught wind of Joseph Don Mount’s plan to lead a 153-person hiking trip through Grand Canyon National Park last fall, they tried to warn him against it.
The large excursion, which Mount, from Chehalis, Wash., had been advertising on Facebook and collecting $95 fees to fund, would violate the park’s rules against hiking groups larger than 11 people, ranger Timothy Hopp warned in an Oct. 8 phone call, according to a federal affidavit filed on Tuesday.
Mount reassured the ranger that he only planned to bring a small group of 10 into the park, made up of his former rugby teammates, close friends and family. The next day, he logged onto Facebook to tell the dozens who had paid for the hike that he needed to make it appear that he would no longer be leading them.
“Ranger Hopp — this is my plausible deniability,” Mount wrote on Facebook, according to the affidavit. “I am no longer leading a group through Grand Canyon on 10/24. I am simply going with my 10 (or less) closest friend[s] and family.”
Just over two weeks later, Mount and more than 150 other people from 12 states allegedly flocked to Grand Canyon National Park to descend from the canyon’s North Rim, walk along the Colorado River below, and then ascend to the South Rim — with many not wearing masks or observing social distancing rules.
Now, Mount faces five federal charges and is accused of lying to park officials, doing business in the park without a permit and violating coronavirus restrictions. . . .
My comment - Hope the feds throw the book at this clown. Certainly fact he is a "health-care executive" compounds his crimes.
My hope is that someone who was visiting the Grand Canyon AND following the rules, has grounds to sue the SOB for a LOT of money. Also, that the Boy Scouts of America strip him of his freaking merit badges, as someone without merit, a disgrace to the memory of Lord Baden Powell.
And IF there is a hell, then sure that Dante would give this former Eagle Scout a nice seat in the first row of the campfire jamboree!
Went for a walk, got thoroughly soaked in a downpour. Passed one polling place with 5 display placards; the Conservative one had been ripped off both sides. Went on to the next nearest. Same story.
Says it all about the political dialogue on the left....
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
I thought Labour were value here at Evens.
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
But this isn't a normal election - remember that alongside this there is a mayoral election and sweeties and toys have gone to the mayor's "friends / friendly towns"
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
I thought Labour were value here at Evens.
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
It's baffling - unless they have noone available who is not against Brexit why choose that numpty.
In these northern England parts the only election today is for Police Commissioner. Just voted, and at the polling station they were surprised that they have had a little trickle of folks all day - rather more than they expected.
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
I love this "look at how much of a f-ing hero I was" stuff!
Ok, ok, we all do it, but @kinabalu said it too and I've bet on the Tories throughout too, I just wasn't sure if it was going to be a narrow margin or a big margin.
I decided 4 days ago it'd be big, and bet accordingly.
UK reports 13 more coronavirus deaths and 2,613 new cases
I wonder if ~2000 cases a day is the floor until we have vaccinated the plague spreaders otherwise known as children.
My other half hasn't been offered it yet, she is 34 - neither has Max of this parish or his other half I believe. So there's a large number of 20s and 30s still unvaxxed.
Woman of the People - Politico.com - ‘He was packing up his hangar’: Jenner says wealthy Californians are moving to avoid the homeless The remarks were criticized by some on social media as tone-deaf and unhelpful to the Republican’s developing gubernatorial campaign.
Caitlyn Jenner, a Republican candidate for California governor, lamented on Wednesday that her wealthy friends were leaving the state in droves, recounting the story of one man who decided to pack up his private airplane hangar because he was tired of seeing homeless people.
The remarks from Jenner came in her first major media appearance since announcing her gubernatorial bid last month: a sit-down interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, conducted in Jenner’s own Malibu-area hangar.
“My friends are leaving California,” Jenner said. “Actually, my hangar, the guy across … he was packing up his hangar. I said, ‘Where are you going?’ And he says, ‘I’m moving to Sedona, Arizona. I can’t take it anymore. I can’t walk down the streets and see the homeless.’”
“I don’t want to leave,” Jenner added. “Either I stay and fight, or I get out of here.”
The comments also seemingly undercut Republican efforts to portray Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is facing a recall election, as an elite career politician who remains out of touch with the state’s residents amid the coronavirus pandemic. . . .
Republicans don't need to portray Newsom as anything seeing as there are so many prepared to vote for his recall
Most recent poll I could find (in a minute of googling) from March 31 by Public Policy Institute of California, showed that:
"If a special election to recall Governor Newsom were held today, 40 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on removing Newsom, while 56 percent would vote no and 5 percent are unsure. Views break along party lines: Republicans (79%) are far more likely than independents (42%) and Democrats (15%) to say they would vote yes . . ."
Now 40% of Cali voters IS "many" in one sense, but NOT as many as you may think.
Even if anti-Newsom GOPers are more highly motivated, still a BIG mountain for them to climb. And without any alternative as appealing as Arnold Schwarzenegger to break trail.
Unless you think Caitlyn Jenner or John "Big Bear" Cox is in the same league?
Rumours from a source that Yvette Cooper is the next SC, all but confirmed
That will mean three years of pb Tories banging on about HIPS. Surely there must be someone else?
It is an important point, the safe pair of hands werent very safe when she tried to shepherd this through parliament. She does do righteous indignation very well though and the media love her.
UK reports 13 more coronavirus deaths and 2,613 new cases
I wonder if ~2000 cases a day is the floor until we have vaccinated the plague spreaders otherwise known as children.
My other half hasn't been offered it yet, she is 34 - neither has Max of this parish or his other half I believe. So there's a large number of 20s and 30s still unvaxxed.
Nor me.
Haven’t been offered it either, and the website is still saying 40+.
Woman of the People - Politico.com - ‘He was packing up his hangar’: Jenner says wealthy Californians are moving to avoid the homeless The remarks were criticized by some on social media as tone-deaf and unhelpful to the Republican’s developing gubernatorial campaign.
Caitlyn Jenner, a Republican candidate for California governor, lamented on Wednesday that her wealthy friends were leaving the state in droves, recounting the story of one man who decided to pack up his private airplane hangar because he was tired of seeing homeless people.
The remarks from Jenner came in her first major media appearance since announcing her gubernatorial bid last month: a sit-down interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, conducted in Jenner’s own Malibu-area hangar.
“My friends are leaving California,” Jenner said. “Actually, my hangar, the guy across … he was packing up his hangar. I said, ‘Where are you going?’ And he says, ‘I’m moving to Sedona, Arizona. I can’t take it anymore. I can’t walk down the streets and see the homeless.’”
“I don’t want to leave,” Jenner added. “Either I stay and fight, or I get out of here.”
The comments also seemingly undercut Republican efforts to portray Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is facing a recall election, as an elite career politician who remains out of touch with the state’s residents amid the coronavirus pandemic. . . .
Republicans don't need to portray Newsom as anything seeing as there are so many prepared to vote for his recall
Most recent poll I could find (in a minute of googling) from March 31 by Public Policy Institute of California, showed that:
"If a special election to recall Governor Newsom were held today, 40 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on removing Newsom, while 56 percent would vote no and 5 percent are unsure. Views break along party lines: Republicans (79%) are far more likely than independents (42%) and Democrats (15%) to say they would vote yes . . ."
Now 40% of Cali voters IS "many" in one sense, but NOT as many as you may think.
Even if anti-Newsom GOPers are more highly motivated, still a BIG mountain for them to climb. And without any alternative as appealing as Arnold Schwarzenegger to break trail.
Unless you think Caitlyn Jenner or John "Big Bear" Cox is in the same league?
Honestly I find the whole thing very puzzling. Why bother recall Newsom at all when the inevitable result is more Newsom? Dems invincible in California.
Completely futile exercise. I feel sorry for those who did it. Only option is to abandon the aircraft hangar and leave.
Bozos gun boat willy waving might go down well south of the border but is likely to go down badly with the vast majority north of the border .
The Bozo stunt just reminds those who think he’s a detestable waste of space of the need to get out and vote and make sure the fat oaf won’t be able to crow about the results in Scotland .
UK reports 13 more coronavirus deaths and 2,613 new cases
I wonder if ~2000 cases a day is the floor until we have vaccinated the plague spreaders otherwise known as children.
My other half hasn't been offered it yet, she is 34 - neither has Max of this parish or his other half I believe. So there's a large number of 20s and 30s still unvaxxed.
Nor me.
Haven’t been offered it either, and the website is still saying 40+.
I know it will give you all comfort to know that at 37, I’ve had one and my second is booked. So it’s all going swimmingly.
Politico.com - Cheney faces the boot in Washington. Wyoming isn’t looking much better. Trump's political operation is engaged in recruiting for Liz Cheney's 2022 primary as the House GOP prepares to oust her from leadership.
Rep. Liz Cheney’s colleagues are set to boot her from House GOP leadership this month. Now Republicans back in her home state of Wyoming are plotting how to remove her from Congress entirely.
There is no shortage of Republicans eager to take on Cheney in a 2022 primary since her vote to impeach President Donald Trump and her subsequent criticism of him tanked her popularity in Wyoming. But the crowded field is also a risk for the anti-Cheney forces, making it more possible for her to win with a plurality.
That might be the only path back to Washington for Cheney, barring a drastic change of fortune: Internal polling conducted for Trump’s PAC in January and, more recently, for the pro-Trump Club for Growth show a majority of Wyoming Republicans disapproving of Cheney and continuing strong support for Trump.
The collapse in support is a remarkable fall from grace for Cheney, who just last year passed on an open Senate seat in her state to remain in House leadership instead. After ascending to GOP conference chair — the same post her father once held — she was touted as a future House speaker. Now, it’s impossible to call her anything other than an underdog in her own congressional seat.
Trump and his orbit have taken a strong interest in the race, and an endorsement could help clarify the field, which already features four Republicans who have filed to run against Cheney. But more contenders are waiting on the sidelines, and Trump’s political team, according to two people familiar with the efforts, has shown early interest in recruiting a pair of Republicans who aren’t already in the race: attorney Darin Smith, who ran for the seat in 2016, and Wyoming Secretary of State Ed Buchanan.
"I think anybody who's a decent Republican is going to get behind whoever Donald Trump eventually endorses,” Smith said in an interview. “He's gonna look under every rock and look over the lay of the land, and he's going to determine who that person that he's going to get behind is.” . . .
Comment - Certainly DO agree that Trumpsky will "look under every rock" looking for something really creepy crawly - a verminous insect in his own image.
Question. Is it legal to park a car literally plastered in party logos directly outside the door of the polling station?
Yes , so long as it is outside the precinct
There is a statuary distance of, from memory, 50 yards, unless it's on private property. You need to talk to the Presiding Officer or the RO or their Deputy.
I dont think there's statutory limit. 100 m is sometimes mentioned , but this is just RO guidance to local political parties.
From years of doing this I've had it drilled into me that you don't take party materials anywhere near a polling station. I always removed a rosette even though I knew that was allowed.
Alex Salmond cames across as an arrogant bastard. I am parking here and who are you to ask me if it's ok. I was polite!
Within the precinct - being the grounds - of the polling station, rules are very strict. You shouldn’t really display the party or candidate name, and I have come across some areas where ROs still insist and therefore a blank coloured rosette was all you were allowed. The electoral commission guidance nowadays is a little more relaxed and simply requires that any such material be unobtrusive.
Beyond the polling station there is no jurisdiction to enforce any such rules, which is why the guidelines sometimes issued to the parties are just that - guidance.
There is an electoral commission rule prohibiting party logos and materials in the immediate vicinity of the polling centre which I posted earlier. At best they can be asked to move on - and he did. Having said that the law (these rules) don't apply to candidates.
BTW we're talking a narrow pavement between his car and the entrance door. Coming from one side you'd need to siddle past him to gain entry.
The rules all apply “in the polling station”, which includes its precinct.
And outside, where Tellers (and other party agents) "must not wear, carry or display any headwear, footwear or other apparel that carries any writing, picture or sign relating to any candidate or party apart from a rosette". As tellers (and other party agents) have to remain outside the "precinct" as you keep putting it, that means that the Rosette Mr Salmond was wearing was OK, his branded car Mr Salmond had parked and got out of was not ok.
I've had the police move branded up cars parked outside polling stations before. Not allowed. Unless you are Alex Salmond when "that law doesn't apply to candidates" in his own words.
Wrong on several counts, but we are too near poll close to make the argument worthwhile. Check the EC website where it’s all spelled out (noting that an instruction not to wear your shoes around the house doesn’t mean you are required to walk down the street barefoot).
Var. Tory canvasser and media reports that it's not even close in Hartlepool.
And? Rochdale and myself said that from the very beginning of this by-election
And I said narrow labour hold from the start. Have to say I'm starting to wonder.............
I'm the same. This really ought to have been a Lab hold, but the campaign has been shocking. From the candidate picked, to the national campaigning ... It's like they're conspiring to throw the election.
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
I thought Labour were value here at Evens.
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
Why think that in the middle of a pandemic, with a world leading vaccination campaign and during a generational shift in politics from economy to culture, things can be predicted by what happens normally?
Because, as with regular government, many people seem quite cross about the way the pandemic has progressed. And while I agree with the 'shift in politics from economy to culture', this isn't a sudden thing. Neither of these should take away from the general rule that those angry about the government are generally more motivated to vote than those content with them. But what this feels like to me (from the vantage point of 100 miles away, so what do I know) is that people are more motivated by voting against Labour. I can't remember when the Tories were in opposition there being the same desire to vote against the Tories at by-elections. A lack of enthusiasm to vote for them, certainly; but the desire to give the Tories a kicking didn't seem to feature in by-elections of the 1997-2010 period.
Well lets see if its national or local. I'd say mostly local so mostly Brexit/culture driven.
And will culture voters switch between blue and red in mid terms/by elections in the same way economic voters did? It seems pretty unlikely to me that they would - they will cheer on their team.
Yes, but even in the heyday of government by-election losses, there were relatively few switchers - more a case of the opposition parties being better able to get their vote out and the government's finding it hard to muster the enthusiasm. You would have thought the same rules would apply whatever the nature of the split - it's just the nature of being on government that you have to disappoint people, whether economically or culturally.
So I still find a government gain in a by-election remarkable, even allowing for large scale transferability between BXP and CON.
I appreciate that he has put in the effort to have an actual website, multiple musical updates, and from the looks of ballot paper even arranged to have his own logo, something some representing actual parties have not done.
It's all about rewarding effort with the joke candidates. I mean, Gammons has done nothing other than have a ridiculous name and defunct party logo, that's not taking the joke seriously enough.
Bozos gun boat willy waving might go down well south of the border but is likely to go down badly with the vast majority north of the border .
The Bozo stunt just reminds those who think he’s a detestable waste of space of the need to get out and vote and make sure the fat oaf won’t be able to crow about the results in Scotland .
Bozo is a disingenuous racist overweight fornicator - nothing more, more less.
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If a majority of The Public are in favour of the death penalty, and are opposed to litter louts, HOW COME no major party is proposing bringing back the Rope?
Bozos gun boat willy waving might go down well south of the border but is likely to go down badly with the vast majority north of the border .
The Bozo stunt just reminds those who think he’s a detestable waste of space of the need to get out and vote and make sure the fat oaf won’t be able to crow about the results in Scotland .
Except this was a stunt that someone else precipitated. I'm all for condeming willy-waving in general, and those participating in it, but it's a pretty minor example.
Bozos gun boat willy waving might go down well south of the border but is likely to go down badly with the vast majority north of the border .
The Bozo stunt just reminds those who think he’s a detestable waste of space of the need to get out and vote and make sure the fat oaf won’t be able to crow about the results in Scotland .
Bozo is a disingenuous racist overweight fornicator - nothing more, more less.
Loved by the pea-brained fanbois who live on this right-wing blog!
Comments
Avoid getting overly worked up by wokeism by not spending 3 hours a day searching out transgender issues in the extreme twittersphere.
Tom Scott"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkH2r-sNjQs
I bet with Kinabalu at evens on a Lab hold. I wouldn't today based on what's happened since, I think I'll lose that bet.
Yahoo elections guide
I'm drinking it all in.
"@BorisJohnson
I'm urging everyone in Hartlepool to get out and vote for Jill Mortimer today.
She's got a fantastic plan for change to take Hartlepool forward.
So vote Conservative in Hartlepool today."
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1390266752148328453
https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1390335772708982787?s=20
PS Please don't feel you necessarily have to have the last word ...
I never bought that ALL Brexit Party votes transferred to the Conservatives - but even starting from the guess that two thirds of them would, that would give a notional result from 2007 of 45% Con, 37% Labour. That is the sort of territory that governments normally lose from in a by election.
Turnout is officially brisk.
Neither of these should take away from the general rule that those angry about the government are generally more motivated to vote than those content with them.
But what this feels like to me (from the vantage point of 100 miles away, so what do I know) is that people are more motivated by voting against Labour. I can't remember when the Tories were in opposition there being the same desire to vote against the Tories at by-elections. A lack of enthusiasm to vote for them, certainly; but the desire to give the Tories a kicking didn't seem to feature in by-elections of the 1997-2010 period.
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/corona-vakzine-fuer-kinder-jens-spahn-plant-impfungen-bis-ende-der-sommerferien-a-d15f786e-bdc3-422b-9a09-8079304724e4
Lockdown isn’t always a surefire vote winner - just ask Madrileños, who won the latest elections with a landslide
FIONA GOVAN" {£}
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/05/madrid-has-rewarded-anti-lockdown-right/
Just looking at air photos of my town ca 1929 (for other reasons) but noticing the cramped C19 stone tenements versus the semidetached council houses and maisonettes in large gardens, all spanking new or in the process of construction.
Mind you, they also installed a decent public park complete with parkies, putting course, tennis courts, water fountain etc. as per discussion on PB the other day.
And will culture voters switch between blue and red in mid terms/by elections in the same way economic voters did? It seems pretty unlikely to me that they would - they will cheer on their team.
Tim Spector
@timspector
·
1h
More ZOE app data from the early days - do you remember all the fuss about NSAIDs and ibuprofen? All rubbish it turns out -published today - thanks for all the info ZOE loggers...
When park rangers caught wind of Joseph Don Mount’s plan to lead a 153-person hiking trip through Grand Canyon National Park last fall, they tried to warn him against it.
The large excursion, which Mount, from Chehalis, Wash., had been advertising on Facebook and collecting $95 fees to fund, would violate the park’s rules against hiking groups larger than 11 people, ranger Timothy Hopp warned in an Oct. 8 phone call, according to a federal affidavit filed on Tuesday.
Mount reassured the ranger that he only planned to bring a small group of 10 into the park, made up of his former rugby teammates, close friends and family. The next day, he logged onto Facebook to tell the dozens who had paid for the hike that he needed to make it appear that he would no longer be leading them.
“Ranger Hopp — this is my plausible deniability,” Mount wrote on Facebook, according to the affidavit. “I am no longer leading a group through Grand Canyon on 10/24. I am simply going with my 10 (or less) closest friend[s] and family.”
Just over two weeks later, Mount and more than 150 other people from 12 states allegedly flocked to Grand Canyon National Park to descend from the canyon’s North Rim, walk along the Colorado River below, and then ascend to the South Rim — with many not wearing masks or observing social distancing rules.
Now, Mount faces five federal charges and is accused of lying to park officials, doing business in the park without a permit and violating coronavirus restrictions. . . .
My comment - Hope the feds throw the book at this clown. Certainly fact he is a "health-care executive" compounds his crimes.
My hope is that someone who was visiting the Grand Canyon AND following the rules, has grounds to sue the SOB for a LOT of money. Also, that the Boy Scouts of America strip him of his freaking merit badges, as someone without merit, a disgrace to the memory of Lord Baden Powell.
And IF there is a hell, then sure that Dante would give this former Eagle Scout a nice seat in the first row of the campfire jamboree!
I asked the tellers how busy they had been: started flaccid before turning vigorous, frenzied for a while, desultory since.
I wonder what Reeves' future is – I would have thought her the main challenger for that role?
This might all change of course, that's just what I heard today.
As for where elsewhere Reeves might go, this is just a guess but Shadow Home?
Our 2019 vote coming out.
Ok, ok, we all do it, but @kinabalu said it too and I've bet on the Tories throughout too, I just wasn't sure if it was going to be a narrow margin or a big margin.
I decided 4 days ago it'd be big, and bet accordingly.
My grovelling apologies for saying that the remarkable form of their batting lineup meant that they looked a good shout for the Championship.
I really should have kept my mouth shut, shouldn’t I?
"If a special election to recall Governor Newsom were held today, 40 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on removing Newsom, while 56 percent would vote no and 5 percent are unsure. Views break along party lines: Republicans (79%) are far more likely than independents (42%) and Democrats (15%) to say they would vote yes . . ."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/gavin-newsom-is-well-positioned-for-recall-poll-shows.html
Now 40% of Cali voters IS "many" in one sense, but NOT as many as you may think.
Even if anti-Newsom GOPers are more highly motivated, still a BIG mountain for them to climb. And without any alternative as appealing as Arnold Schwarzenegger to break trail.
Unless you think Caitlyn Jenner or John "Big Bear" Cox is in the same league?
Had to smile at the young man in front of me in queue who was seemingly at his first vote and he was pretty enthusiastic.
Completely futile exercise. I feel sorry for those who did it. Only option is to abandon the aircraft hangar and leave.
Both Yvette and her civil servants just did not listen to advice as they knew best
And of course hips failed
I am surprised if she become Shadow Chancellor when Rachel Reeves seems the shoe in
One thousand majority last time out.
Eight thousand UKIP votes. Ooh-er...
Nuffence, but I suspect the high turnout anecdotes will 'turnout' to be bollocks, as they usually are.
The Bozo stunt just reminds those who think he’s a detestable waste of space of the need to get out and vote and make sure the fat oaf won’t be able to crow about the results in Scotland .
Might as well be. All Tory voters will be deemed naughty - and get no presents.
Trump's political operation is engaged in recruiting for Liz Cheney's 2022 primary as the House GOP prepares to oust her from leadership.
Rep. Liz Cheney’s colleagues are set to boot her from House GOP leadership this month. Now Republicans back in her home state of Wyoming are plotting how to remove her from Congress entirely.
There is no shortage of Republicans eager to take on Cheney in a 2022 primary since her vote to impeach President Donald Trump and her subsequent criticism of him tanked her popularity in Wyoming. But the crowded field is also a risk for the anti-Cheney forces, making it more possible for her to win with a plurality.
That might be the only path back to Washington for Cheney, barring a drastic change of fortune: Internal polling conducted for Trump’s PAC in January and, more recently, for the pro-Trump Club for Growth show a majority of Wyoming Republicans disapproving of Cheney and continuing strong support for Trump.
The collapse in support is a remarkable fall from grace for Cheney, who just last year passed on an open Senate seat in her state to remain in House leadership instead. After ascending to GOP conference chair — the same post her father once held — she was touted as a future House speaker. Now, it’s impossible to call her anything other than an underdog in her own congressional seat.
Trump and his orbit have taken a strong interest in the race, and an endorsement could help clarify the field, which already features four Republicans who have filed to run against Cheney. But more contenders are waiting on the sidelines, and Trump’s political team, according to two people familiar with the efforts, has shown early interest in recruiting a pair of Republicans who aren’t already in the race: attorney Darin Smith, who ran for the seat in 2016, and Wyoming Secretary of State Ed Buchanan.
"I think anybody who's a decent Republican is going to get behind whoever Donald Trump eventually endorses,” Smith said in an interview. “He's gonna look under every rock and look over the lay of the land, and he's going to determine who that person that he's going to get behind is.” . . .
Comment - Certainly DO agree that Trumpsky will "look under every rock" looking for something really creepy crawly - a verminous insect in his own image.
So I still find a government gain in a by-election remarkable, even allowing for large scale transferability between BXP and CON.
It's all about rewarding effort with the joke candidates. I mean, Gammons has done nothing other than have a ridiculous name and defunct party logo, that's not taking the joke seriously enough.
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Anyone still breathing would be better than that.