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And for election day – The Uncultured Mr Maslow – politicalbetting.com
So, in the good old days there was a Left Wing party (which emphasised government action to minimise income differentials) and a Right Wing party (who preferred a less active state).
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Edit: there's a key constituency here, which is the CP membership. They're the ones to keep happy (as well as the MPs). Start knocking the value of their houses, or taxing it (dementia tax, IHT, etc.) and you can kiss your PM-ship goodbye.
Otherwise, good stuff. Although this is fundamentally about demographics, which never move as fast as anyone expects, or wants. I can't see the issue developing quickly enough to matter in the next ten years, and by then the Tories will be out of ideas and exhausted anyway. I just hope Labour have found someone sensible by the time that happens...
I thought she was a dead cert vote for our local hard working lib dem
I will pop out at some stage to do my duty
That is 1 in 4 of eligible voters in this house that is bothering
The question is how do you get there in a deflationary world.
https://guernseypress.com/news/2021/05/06/we-can-generate-the-power-to-keep-lights-on/
Immediately off topic, a really, really interesting overview of the arguments for thinking covid was a lab escape. One of which is that we know Wuhan was doing gain of function experiments for getting covid into humanised mice in a program funded by the US government and authorised by Anthony Fauci.
The interesting thing is that the big differences in house prices across the country has resulted in the population sorting itself geographically.
I think there are two types of people. Those who feel entitled to live in nice areas of big cities and those who don't. And those who don't, are more likely to vote Tory. And this has been very helpful to the Tories.
So for this to be a problem for the Tories, the amount of the country that is affordable will need to fall.
Alternatively, COVID and working patterns may help Labour get more of its people into the Nuneatons of this world.
However I think you're simplistic in saying that nothing has been done by the Tories. It has, but not evenly across the nation. Just ask those of us who live in the North outside of the major cities - there is major construction going on and has been for much of the past decade. Home ownership is going up as a result - and surprise, surprise that has seen a swing to the Tories.
The Tory conquest of the Red Wall is underpinned by Persimmon Homes etc
Interestingly of course the one area that things are going the wrong way, is where construction is slacking relative to population. From 2007 to 2019 the population of London increased by abouth a sixth. Has the quantity of homes in the Capital also increased by a sixth? I don't know, can't find numbers for that, but I suspect not.
I wonder what proportion of Tory voters own their home without a mortgage?
Quite high I’d guess.
Do those people actually care if their home halves in value?
But those who have just got on the lower rungs of the ladder...
https://twitter.com/AlexofBrown/status/1390203853522489346?s=20
Much of the country is affordable after a fashion, but (thankfully) none of the movers, shakers, policy makers and commentators wish to live there. I do hope that keeps being true.
Secondly, while no doubt it will one day be 'time for a change' and someone else will have a go, what exactly can they do which the Tories can't to ameliorate the situation?
Personally it seems to me that, just as between the wars the entire of rural Middlesex was turned into a gigantic housing estate the same is needed now with the so called Green Belt, that dismal quarter of fields, gated big houses, rubbish in hedges and the M25. The auguries suggest that for some reason this would be unpopular.
Near me there’s an absolutely terrible cheap-as-chips residential conversion of an office on an industrial estate directly attached to a wickes warehouse. Awful, probably unmortgageable 1 bed apartments, windows only on one wall, with lots of noise and a high fire risk from the attached warehouse.
I struggle to think the buyers will end up happy home owning tories. I think they’re selling to cash buying btl landlords, which means miserable, labour voting tenants.
Thanks to the tories 2013(?) reforms, this is happening up and down the country. The slums of the future, indeed.
Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.
Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.
. . . by waving the Union Jack at the Frogs like a pig's bladder on a stick!
Speaking of islands, my question is, WHY did that great Patriot Donald Trumpsky NOT invade and reclaim MACHIAS SEAL ISLAND from the grasping clutches (or clutching grasp) of the Great White North?
He did make a big deal of fawning over the Queen. Was THAT the reason why MAGA stopped short of reclaiming US soil foully (or rather fowlly) usurped by her minions this side of the Atlantic (and the Pacific)?
Talk about wokeism!
Where is Lord Sutch when you need REALLY him?
Tragically, dirt napping. And NOT in the good Leon way!
What we need is increased supply.
A businessman testifies before Parliament that he was shaken down by outgoing PM Borisov to the tune of EUR 350-400,000 a year. Alleges Borisov played to him a video of another businessman being sexually violated while in detention.
https://twitter.com/DimitarBechev/status/1390219850719576067
The GOOD news is, your support for President Trumpsky WILL be counted.
And appreciated - look for your very own MAGA hats to arrive on your doorstep shortly!
Average age of this group is somewhere north of 70.
https://twitter.com/ITVChannelTV/status/1390243129274601475?s=20
I generally think the obsession with home ownership is a bad investment decision and also damaging for the country economically.
It's nothing like as simple as that, obviously. It helped a lot, but so did many other factors. After all, home ownership was higher in 1987 than in 1983, but Mrs Thatcher lost seats. And it was higher again in 1992 than 1987, but again the Conservatives lost seats.
By improving affordability for people to buy new builds, and increasing the supply of brown or green land to be built upon, the supply can be seriously increased. Its what is happening so successfully here, and house prices tend to be stable instead of going up or down as a result.
There are people who bought 25% of a flat under a shared ownership scheme with deposits as little as 35k who are now expected to pony up twice that to fix defects they weren't responsible for while the developers who caused them get off scot free. For a flat they "own" quarter of yet are responsible for 100% of the bills.
1.3 million flats in the UK are currently unmortgageable, people's lives are on hold, and MPs have voted five times now not to protect leaseholders from costs that will likely bankrupt them.
While I'm not directly affected by any of this I know people who are and I was close to buying a property that is affected by all of this - so it's a bit of a "there but for the grace of god go I" thing for me.
Stories like this are commonplace:
https://conversation.which.co.uk/home-energy/abi-tubis-leeds-dangerous-cladding/
MPs have voted five times against an amendment to protect leaseholders from ruinous bills:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/27/vote-to-protect-leaseholders-from-cladding-costs-fails-despite-tory-rebellion
Lifelong Conservative voters are abandoing the party over the crisis:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/29/lifelong-tory-voters-abandoning-party-over-cladding-crisis
The Bank of England considers the risk to be so big it could take down the entire housing market and cause another financial crisis:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-considers-risk-of-financial-collapse-from-cladding-scandal-jwbpkpv0z
Not any more.
Repost. I know centrists tell this to make themselves feel better but the reality shows Labour 2017 vote wasn't about Brexit at all.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener
Brexit doesn't even make it as a category
Is this because it wasn't something people could pick as an option?
No, look at the Conservatives
Brexit 21%
Also I've posted polling on here before about why Labour lost votes...
And you'll be surprised to hear that no it isn't because young people loved Corbyn because he was fighting for remain when the manifesto was respecting the result and then realised he was an evil brexiteer when he offered a second referendum.
Most Labour votes (biggest category) were lost because of people leaving to vote for Brexit (and against a second referendum)
I realise that whilst the polling backs all this up it doesn't work as a centrist or right wing narrative so lets ignore this and go back to the fairy tales about what we would like the votes to have been about.
Definitely brisk in my Bucks village (Thames Valley PCC & Bucks County Council). I had to queue for a few minutes to get my voting sheet.
I'm a traditional Tory voter but not entirely happy with how they run things locally and don't want to ever give a vote to Labour or the Lib Dems. Voted Tory for PCC and independent as 2nd choice for PCC. I was on the verge of giving several votes to the Greens until I realised that 2 of their candidates either was "somewhere in Bucks" or not local. Gave the Green candidate who lived in the village my vote along with 2 other very local Tories.
I think the Greens will do very well in my area. Lots of posters up and I think there is a recognition that they have campaigned well locally. I'd never vote for them in a general election but they have had their first ever vote from me today.
"Breaking: Two French navy boats deployed to waters near Jersey: official --
@AFP
Breaking: France 'won't be intimidated' by British manoeuvres at Jersey: French minister --
@AFP"
https://twitter.com/JeromeTaylor/status/1390232736036573185?s=20
THIS IS IT LADS
GAME ON
I agree that housing is an important issue to address.
And I agree that homeowning is closely aligned with voting Conservative.
But I think the cultural aspect is just as important to Conservative success.
The Conservative vote in general elections is primarily dependent on how worried people are by the Labour Party. When people perceive the Labour Party as hostile to the, the Conservative vote goes up. My view is that the primary reason for Labour suceess in 97, 01 and 05 is that people did not fear them.
Government need to release acres of brownfield land they’re sitting on, and planning permissions need to have penalties on developers for land banking.
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
"Is it legal to literally park your car outside the front door of the polling station Mr Salmond?" I asked. "The law doesn't apply to candidates." "I think it does. Are you going to move or do I need to complain to the returning officer?"
He moved the car. Have since been told that when he is not driving round with his megaphone that he has literally parked the Alba-mobile outside a stack of polling stations.
From the Electoral Commission's guidance: "Tellers should not display or distribute election material (e.g. billboards, posters, placards or pamphlets) on walls or around the polling place. Any display of such material should be brought to the attention of the Presiding Officer immediately." The Electoral Commission also notes that advice to tellers applies to anyone.
If a tenant is renting, their landlord has to pay maintenance. If 25% shared ownership why doesn't the 25% owner pay 25% of the cost, and the 75% owner the other 75%? That seems utterly illogical, to be able to own but not be responsible for upkeep.
Here's a similar story from 5 days ago about someone who put down a £15k deposit for a 25% stake and is now expecting a 50k bill
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/refugee-who-saw-home-destroyed-24019994
So there are a lot of these stories out there, even at a cursory search.
The idea that shared owners are responsible for 100% of maintenance costs just beggars belief to me. Anyone who buys shared ownership after this needs their head examined.
A lot of people don't realise they have pretty much zero "consumer protection" when buying newly built houses or flats.
They are a poison in the body politic, the dear old lady in the bobble hat who seems a bit intense may seem harmless. But their creed will damage all of us.
(1) "Values" being the new driver of voting intention is overstated and temporary. Soon we'll revert to a traditional politics based on disagreement as to how the economy should be structured.
(2) "Values" as driver is real and here to stay. We are into a lasting new politics of liberal vs conservative in the American sense. Great for the Tories under FPTP because they have their side locked up with the other side split.
If it's (1) Labour will be back in government before too long. If it's (2) it will be harder and it might need a realignment and coalescing of the Left to GTTO.
Then paratroops into central Paris, seize the Louvre, and maybe that nice bar on Rue de Buci, so we have enough cafe au lait?
Seems like we are heading for huge swathes of cities which used to house offices and shops being empty. Landlords can either leave them empty or switch them into housing.
"Disclose.tv P
@disclosetv
NEW - "We're ready for war. We can bring Jersey to its knees", head of the Normandy sea authority says. Macron sends military boat racing towards Jersey for stand-off with Royal Navy warships.
10:57 AM · May 6, 2021"
It will be over by Christmas
'@ITVChannelTV
A member of the Jersey Militia reenactment group was seen firing on the French boats with a musket from Elizabeth Castle this morning.
It's after the flotilla of French fishermen who blockaded Jersey's main harbour returned to open water.
https://itv.com/news/channel/2021-05-06/french-fishermen-en-route-to-blockade-jerseys-main-harbour
Jeremy Corbyn on twitter.
________________________________________
Proud to vote Labour today for a kinder, fairer, more sustainable world.
_______________________________________
Fuck me, what a fucking classy bloke. Worth more than the rest of them put together.
I would sit and laugh at Kieth I would be bitter and loving his failure, I would be working my ass off to get my own back.
I just don't understand how the hell he does it but I admire the hell out of it.
Also SUPER IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION: I am not voting Labour that was just Corbyn's words.
Cons: "we have a housing problem, so let's build millions of new houses."
LD/Green: "oh no you don't."
It's exacerbated by the fact the new developments are so bloody awful. Round here there's a supposed "Green Belt" around Oxford (which in reality is half gravel pits and unappealing flatland). This means the massive new overspill estate is going literally 10 metres from the outer edge of the Green Belt - on the other side of the road that forms the boundary. So everyone who lives there will have an unnecessary 15-mile round trip to work along the most congested road in the county.
In related news, the LDs are going to take the relevant county council division off the Tories today, and very possibly (in coalition) the entire county.
So you shouldn't really blame your local councillors the issue is the builders themselves.
https://twitter.com/mundane_matthew/status/1390249084494168067?s=21
Priority should be brownfield sites - there are plenty of those around.