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And for election day – The Uncultured Mr Maslow – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 6 in General
imageAnd for election day – The Uncultured Mr Maslow – politicalbetting.com

So, in the good old days there was a Left Wing party (which emphasised government action to minimise income differentials) and a Right Wing party (who preferred a less active state).

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    First
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    edited May 6
    Second. Very interesting header - and a nice change from immediate politics (though I agree it's lurking in the depths).

    Edit: there's a key constituency here, which is the CP membership. They're the ones to keep happy (as well as the MPs). Start knocking the value of their houses, or taxing it (dementia tax, IHT, etc.) and you can kiss your PM-ship goodbye.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,851
    The problem is, the problem is insoluble. People need to believe both that the Tories can't solve it (true) and that Labour can (false). It's only a house price crash that would scupper the Tories.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812
    Slight misunderstanding of Maslow's hierarchy of needs - the home is multiple levels below wokeness, not above it.

    Otherwise, good stuff. Although this is fundamentally about demographics, which never move as fast as anyone expects, or wants. I can't see the issue developing quickly enough to matter in the next ten years, and by then the Tories will be out of ideas and exhausted anyway. I just hope Labour have found someone sensible by the time that happens...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    My wife just mentioned she does not intend to vote today

    I thought she was a dead cert vote for our local hard working lib dem

    I will pop out at some stage to do my duty

    That is 1 in 4 of eligible voters in this house that is bothering
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198
    IshmaelZ said:

    The problem is, the problem is insoluble. People need to believe both that the Tories can't solve it (true) and that Labour can (false). It's only a house price crash that would scupper the Tories.

    What is needed is inflation (and especially wage inflation) so that house prices reduce in real but not monetary terms.

    The question is how do you get there in a deflationary world.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,851
    https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

    Immediately off topic, a really, really interesting overview of the arguments for thinking covid was a lab escape. One of which is that we know Wuhan was doing gain of function experiments for getting covid into humanised mice in a program funded by the US government and authorised by Anthony Fauci.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    Excellent, a thread where we can argue about house prices and interest rates and we'd be on topic!

    The interesting thing is that the big differences in house prices across the country has resulted in the population sorting itself geographically.

    I think there are two types of people. Those who feel entitled to live in nice areas of big cities and those who don't. And those who don't, are more likely to vote Tory. And this has been very helpful to the Tories.

    So for this to be a problem for the Tories, the amount of the country that is affordable will need to fall.

    Alternatively, COVID and working patterns may help Labour get more of its people into the Nuneatons of this world.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    Excellent thread Richard, I 100% agree. It's housing that is the key determinant, as simple as that.

    However I think you're simplistic in saying that nothing has been done by the Tories. It has, but not evenly across the nation. Just ask those of us who live in the North outside of the major cities - there is major construction going on and has been for much of the past decade. Home ownership is going up as a result - and surprise, surprise that has seen a swing to the Tories.

    The Tory conquest of the Red Wall is underpinned by Persimmon Homes etc

    Interestingly of course the one area that things are going the wrong way, is where construction is slacking relative to population. From 2007 to 2019 the population of London increased by abouth a sixth. Has the quantity of homes in the Capital also increased by a sixth? I don't know, can't find numbers for that, but I suspect not.
  • pingping Posts: 1,142
    edited May 6
    Great article.

    I wonder what proportion of Tory voters own their home without a mortgage?

    Quite high I’d guess.

    Do those people actually care if their home halves in value?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,021
    If many companies are having more of their staff work from home, and if the high street is diminishing, then it's likely that some of that office and retail space will be converted into flats. I don't think it'll be a huge effect, but could well restrain prices a little.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    ping said:

    Great article.

    I wonder what proportion of Tory voters own their home without a mortgage?

    Quite high I’d guess.

    Do those people actually care if their home halves in value?

    My parents certainly wouldn't care if their home halved in value. My sister (big mortgage) might be annoyed, but isn't planning on moving, so not a problem if she can pay the mortgage.

    But those who have just got on the lower rungs of the ladder...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,851
    ping said:

    Great article.

    I wonder what proportion of Tory voters own their home without a mortgage?

    Quite high I’d guess.

    Do those people actually care if their home halves in value?

    People like feeling rich.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812
    ping said:

    Great article.

    I wonder what proportion of Tory voters own their home without a mortgage?

    Quite high I’d guess.

    Do those people actually care if their home halves in value?

    Yes. Each kid is now getting half as much as an inheritance.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816
    While the thesis in the article is sound in many ways, the the number of people who would react against the government of the day if house prices fell a lot, (which is what is needed in London, South East and posher bits of many places if the entitled are to get what they are entitled to) may well be greater than the number of people who react against the government if they have to live off hope or move somewhere they can afford.

    Much of the country is affordable after a fashion, but (thankfully) none of the movers, shakers, policy makers and commentators wish to live there. I do hope that keeps being true.

    Secondly, while no doubt it will one day be 'time for a change' and someone else will have a go, what exactly can they do which the Tories can't to ameliorate the situation?

    Personally it seems to me that, just as between the wars the entire of rural Middlesex was turned into a gigantic housing estate the same is needed now with the so called Green Belt, that dismal quarter of fields, gated big houses, rubbish in hedges and the M25. The auguries suggest that for some reason this would be unpopular.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Just took 93-year-old mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a loud voice, she said, "which box for war with France?" A cheer went up from waiting voters.

    https://twitter.com/AlexofBrown/status/1390203853522489346?s=20

    The Unofficial Raving Jingo Loony Party?
  • FossFoss Posts: 417
    Endillion said:

    ping said:

    Great article.

    I wonder what proportion of Tory voters own their home without a mortgage?

    Quite high I’d guess.

    Do those people actually care if their home halves in value?

    Yes. Each kid is now getting half as much as an inheritance.
    Each kid can now outsource half as much bottom wiping.
  • pingping Posts: 1,142
    edited May 6
    Omnium said:

    If many companies are having more of their staff work from home, and if the high street is diminishing, then it's likely that some of that office and retail space will be converted into flats. I don't think it'll be a huge effect, but could well restrain prices a little.

    Office and retail conversions tend to make crappy housing, though.

    Near me there’s an absolutely terrible cheap-as-chips residential conversion of an office on an industrial estate directly attached to a wickes warehouse. Awful, probably unmortgageable 1 bed apartments, windows only on one wall, with lots of noise and a high fire risk from the attached warehouse.

    I struggle to think the buyers will end up happy home owning tories. I think they’re selling to cash buying btl landlords, which means miserable, labour voting tenants.

    Thanks to the tories 2013(?) reforms, this is happening up and down the country. The slums of the future, indeed.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198
    ping said:

    Omnium said:

    If many companies are having more of their staff work from home, and if the high street is diminishing, then it's likely that some of that office and retail space will be converted into flats. I don't think it'll be a huge effect, but could well restrain prices a little.

    Office and retail conversions tend to make crappy housing, though.

    Near me there’s an absolutely terrible cheap-as-chips residential conversion of an office on an industrial estate directly attached to a wickes warehouse. Awful, probably unmortgageable 1 bed apartments, windows only on one wall, with lots of noise and a high fire risk from the attached warehouse.

    I struggle to think the buyers will end up happy home owning tories. I think they’re selling to cash buying btl landlords, which means miserable, labour voting tenants.
    Those flats are not designed to be sold - they are built for tenant "farming" where its a crap but cheapest option in town (and that may not necessarily be cheap given what LHA rates may look like).

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264

    Just took 93-year-old mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a loud voice, she said, "which box for war with France?" A cheer went up from waiting voters.

    https://twitter.com/AlexofBrown/status/1390203853522489346?s=20

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,021
    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    Just took 93-year-old mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a loud voice, she said, "which box for war with France?" A cheer went up from waiting voters.

    https://twitter.com/AlexofBrown/status/1390203853522489346?s=20

    The Unofficial Raving Jingo Loony Party?
    Nah, just a long running gag.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 239
    Is my family the only one that sent off our postal votes weeks ago?

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Boris & Co (and Macron?) expect everyone to do their dooty for the Tory Party . . .

    . . . by waving the Union Jack at the Frogs like a pig's bladder on a stick!

    Speaking of islands, my question is, WHY did that great Patriot Donald Trumpsky NOT invade and reclaim MACHIAS SEAL ISLAND from the grasping clutches (or clutching grasp) of the Great White North?

    He did make a big deal of fawning over the Queen. Was THAT the reason why MAGA stopped short of reclaiming US soil foully (or rather fowlly) usurped by her minions this side of the Atlantic (and the Pacific)?

    Talk about wokeism!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816
    edit
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843

    SandraMc said:

    Is my family the only one that sent off our postal votes weeks ago?

    I never vote by post. Half the fun is dropping the ballot in the box.
    I always have before for the same reason, but I heeded the entreaties of the returning officer for people to do it by post if they could due to Covid. Just this once though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843

    SandraMc said:

    Is my family the only one that sent off our postal votes weeks ago?

    I never vote by post. Half the fun is dropping the ballot in the box.
    You're not one of those monsters who fold up the ballot many times more than necessary are you? We counters hate that.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Personally blame the sad situation that the UK faces, from the Kentish Knock to the Isle of Bute, to the lack of leadership provided by your only remaining credible political movement - the Official Raving Monster Loony Party.

    Where is Lord Sutch when you need REALLY him?

    Tragically, dirt napping. And NOT in the good Leon way!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,484
    Question. Is it legal to park a car literally plastered in party logos directly outside the door of the polling station?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    The problem is, almost all of those are demand-side solutions, which tend to increase prices at the same time as getting people into houses, which makes the problem worse in the long run.

    What we need is increased supply.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    Got to agree with Bobby Smithson on this one.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198
    Completely off topic but just to show that Boris is a complete amateur in getting money off people (another entertaining Bulgarian "scandal")

    A businessman testifies before Parliament that he was shaken down by outgoing PM Borisov to the tune of EUR 350-400,000 a year. Alleges Borisov played to him a video of another businessman being sexually violated while in detention.

    https://twitter.com/DimitarBechev/status/1390219850719576067
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595

    Question. Is it legal to park a car literally plastered in party logos directly outside the door of the polling station?

    I doubt it
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 6
    SandraMc said:

    Is my family the only one that sent off our postal votes weeks ago?

    Maybe. But the bad news is, your ballots were mistakenly forwarded to Arizona.

    The GOOD news is, your support for President Trumpsky WILL be counted.

    And appreciated - look for your very own MAGA hats to arrive on your doorstep shortly!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    SandraMc said:

    Is my family the only one that sent off our postal votes weeks ago?

    No - we returned it the day we received it
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 140

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    AS a conveyancer I think all those schemes are small beer. It needs a state building programme and sale at cost or discount scheme - a big one of those proposed by labour could change things dramatically
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    SandraMc said:

    Is my family the only one that sent off our postal votes weeks ago?

    No - we returned it the day we received it
    You sir are what I like to call a jackrabbit voter. You get your ballot, and immediately vote & return it, often asking the letter carrier to please wait a minute so there is zero delay.

    Average age of this group is somewhere north of 70.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    If the Conservative Party wants to keep all these new home owners on board, they need to ensure that freeholders subject to estate rent charges and management companies have protections and rights. Currently they have next-to-none.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 33

    Just took 93-year-old mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a loud voice, she said, "which box for war with France?" A cheer went up from waiting voters.

    https://twitter.com/AlexofBrown/status/1390203853522489346?s=20

    A lot of people in the replies really not getting the joke in that one. Was it Lawrence Fox who posted the initial tweet about his registered blind Mum asking which box for Brexit? Regardless, this one gave me a chuckle.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    kle4 said:

    Got to agree with Bobby Smithson on this one.

    Whom I like to refer to as Lord Pointspread, in anticipation of when OGH is elevated to the peerage as 1st Baron Punter of Bookie-under-Odds.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354
    Steady, not brisk
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The problem is, the problem is insoluble. People need to believe both that the Tories can't solve it (true) and that Labour can (false). It's only a house price crash that would scupper the Tories.

    What is needed is inflation (and especially wage inflation) so that house prices reduce in real but not monetary terms.

    The question is how do you get there in a deflationary world.
    Then the problem shifts to the debt burden, both for government and some of those homeowners
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,021

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    AS a conveyancer I think all those schemes are small beer. It needs a state building programme and sale at cost or discount scheme - a big one of those proposed by labour could change things dramatically
    The Nationwide BS helping hand scheme only launched last week so it won't have reached conveyancers just yet... only one lender but will others follow?
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 246
    In reference to the article, whilst in practice most non home owners won't have much of a capital stake in society it doesn't have to be the case. I personally prefer to invest in equities and am I long term renter.

    I generally think the obsession with home ownership is a bad investment decision and also damaging for the country economically.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354
    edited May 6

    Question. Is it legal to park a car literally plastered in party logos directly outside the door of the polling station?

    Yes , so long as it is outside the precinct
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,021
    Endillion said:

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    The problem is, almost all of those are demand-side solutions, which tend to increase prices at the same time as getting people into houses, which makes the problem worse in the long run.

    What we need is increased supply.
    The first paragraph isn't albeit it's only what I see in my area.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,738
    "She won because she promoted and increased the number of people who were homeowners, and this was combined with rising house prices throughout her period in power."

    It's nothing like as simple as that, obviously. It helped a lot, but so did many other factors. After all, home ownership was higher in 1987 than in 1983, but Mrs Thatcher lost seats. And it was higher again in 1992 than 1987, but again the Conservatives lost seats.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    Endillion said:

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    The problem is, almost all of those are demand-side solutions, which tend to increase prices at the same time as getting people into houses, which makes the problem worse in the long run.

    What we need is increased supply.
    We do, but you don't think the new housing estates galore going up affect supply?

    By improving affordability for people to buy new builds, and increasing the supply of brown or green land to be built upon, the supply can be seriously increased. Its what is happening so successfully here, and house prices tend to be stable instead of going up or down as a result.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,221
    Re the header, Alistair Heath covers this point but points out, according to Nationwide, the percentage of private renters is actually falling. The other thing is that the Government is actually pushing for (a) more homes and (b) an easier ability to buy homes. Look at Barratt's trading update this morning, it is clear that new housing builds are picking up. I really don't see this as an issue that trips up the Government except, ironically, in that building on fields is really unpopular in certain Tory constituencies and may lose them votes there.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 495

    Question. Is it legal to park a car literally plastered in party logos directly outside the door of the polling station?

    I remember in the Sedgefield by-election of 2007 the Labour car drove up and down the street on which I lived at least once an hour proclaiming "Vote Labour!" from a PA system with party logos all over it. We had a polling station on the next street, but not actually on ours so I wonder if it was to try and persuade those on the way without getting too close.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812

    SandraMc said:

    Is my family the only one that sent off our postal votes weeks ago?

    Maybe. But the bad news is, your ballots were mistakenly forwarded to Arizona.

    The GOOD news is, your support for President Trumpsky WILL be counted.

    And appreciated - look for your very own MAGA hats to arrive on your doorstep shortly!
    The big difference between UK and US politics is that when we chant "Stop the Count!", we mean Binface, not Biden.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    Endillion said:

    SandraMc said:

    Is my family the only one that sent off our postal votes weeks ago?

    Maybe. But the bad news is, your ballots were mistakenly forwarded to Arizona.

    The GOOD news is, your support for President Trumpsky WILL be counted.

    And appreciated - look for your very own MAGA hats to arrive on your doorstep shortly!
    The big difference between UK and US politics is that when we chant "Stop the Count!", we mean Binface, not Biden.
    You mean the Americans didn't mean this guy?

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812

    Endillion said:

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    The problem is, almost all of those are demand-side solutions, which tend to increase prices at the same time as getting people into houses, which makes the problem worse in the long run.

    What we need is increased supply.
    We do, but you don't think the new housing estates galore going up affect supply?

    By improving affordability for people to buy new builds, and increasing the supply of brown or green land to be built upon, the supply can be seriously increased. Its what is happening so successfully here, and house prices tend to be stable instead of going up or down as a result.
    It's improved recently, but not enough. We need to do something like double the current run rate to both replace the old housing stock and provide a serious increase to supply. It also doesn't help that as demographics change, the older stock looks more and more inappropriate and needs major modifications to remain useful.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    kyf_100 said:

    The way the Conservatives have hung leaseholders out to dry over the cladding scandal is a national disgrace.

    There are people who bought 25% of a flat under a shared ownership scheme with deposits as little as 35k who are now expected to pony up twice that to fix defects they weren't responsible for while the developers who caused them get off scot free. For a flat they "own" quarter of yet are responsible for 100% of the bills.

    1.3 million flats in the UK are currently unmortgageable, people's lives are on hold, and MPs have voted five times now not to protect leaseholders from costs that will likely bankrupt them.

    While I'm not directly affected by any of this I know people who are and I was close to buying a property that is affected by all of this - so it's a bit of a "there but for the grace of god go I" thing for me.

    Stories like this are commonplace:

    https://conversation.which.co.uk/home-energy/abi-tubis-leeds-dangerous-cladding/

    MPs have voted five times against an amendment to protect leaseholders from ruinous bills:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/27/vote-to-protect-leaseholders-from-cladding-costs-fails-despite-tory-rebellion

    Lifelong Conservative voters are abandoing the party over the crisis:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/29/lifelong-tory-voters-abandoning-party-over-cladding-crisis

    The Bank of England considers the risk to be so big it could take down the entire housing market and cause another financial crisis:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-considers-risk-of-financial-collapse-from-cladding-scandal-jwbpkpv0z


    It is a scandal. Ironically, the only person I know affected by this worked for...the Conservative Party.
    Not any more.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    WAR
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,828
    edited May 6
    New topic every damn time I post....

    Repost.

    Here's something to think about.

    Why did Corbyn do so much better in 2017 than Miliband did in 2015 ?

    Perhaps because Corbyn talked about things relevant to the 80% such as student debt and housing.

    Whereas Miliband talked about things relevant only to the bottom 10% such as zero hours contracts and bedroom taxes.

    Corbyn (in 2017, when he was effectively a meme) also united "the left" and "the young" in a way I have not seen in my lifetime. That gloss was gone by 2019 and thus the effect.
    I think that is simple. In 2017 Labour became the anti-Brexit vote. The young are generally anti-Brexit so we saw a dip in voting for other parties in favour of the big two. By 2019 Labour had switched to being the pro-Brexit party hence the corresponding shift back to LibDem/Green etc.
    I know centrists tell this to make themselves feel better but the reality shows Labour 2017 vote wasn't about Brexit at all.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener

    Brexit doesn't even make it as a category

    Is this because it wasn't something people could pick as an option?

    No, look at the Conservatives

    Brexit 21%

    Also I've posted polling on here before about why Labour lost votes...

    And you'll be surprised to hear that no it isn't because young people loved Corbyn because he was fighting for remain when the manifesto was respecting the result and then realised he was an evil brexiteer when he offered a second referendum.

    Most Labour votes (biggest category) were lost because of people leaving to vote for Brexit (and against a second referendum)

    I realise that whilst the polling backs all this up it doesn't work as a centrist or right wing narrative so lets ignore this and go back to the fairy tales about what we would like the votes to have been about.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595

    SandraMc said:

    Is my family the only one that sent off our postal votes weeks ago?

    No - we returned it the day we received it
    You sir are what I like to call a jackrabbit voter. You get your ballot, and immediately vote & return it, often asking the letter carrier to please wait a minute so there is zero delay.

    Average age of this group is somewhere north of 70.
    77 and 81 so spot on
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    Leon said:

    WAR

    What is it good for?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 409
    Voting anecdote.

    Definitely brisk in my Bucks village (Thames Valley PCC & Bucks County Council). I had to queue for a few minutes to get my voting sheet.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter but not entirely happy with how they run things locally and don't want to ever give a vote to Labour or the Lib Dems. Voted Tory for PCC and independent as 2nd choice for PCC. I was on the verge of giving several votes to the Greens until I realised that 2 of their candidates either was "somewhere in Bucks" or not local. Gave the Green candidate who lived in the village my vote along with 2 other very local Tories.

    I think the Greens will do very well in my area. Lots of posters up and I think there is a recognition that they have campaigned well locally. I'd never vote for them in a general election but they have had their first ever vote from me today.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    kyf_100 said:

    The way the Conservatives have hung leaseholders out to dry over the cladding scandal is a national disgrace.

    There are people who bought 25% of a flat under a shared ownership scheme with deposits as little as 35k who are now expected to pony up twice that to fix defects they weren't responsible for while the developers who caused them get off scot free. For a flat they "own" quarter of yet are responsible for 100% of the bills.

    1.3 million flats in the UK are currently unmortgageable, people's lives are on hold, and MPs have voted five times now not to protect leaseholders from costs that will likely bankrupt them.

    While I'm not directly affected by any of this I know people who are and I was close to buying a property that is affected by all of this - so it's a bit of a "there but for the grace of god go I" thing for me.

    Stories like this are commonplace:

    https://conversation.which.co.uk/home-energy/abi-tubis-leeds-dangerous-cladding/

    MPs have voted five times against an amendment to protect leaseholders from ruinous bills:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/27/vote-to-protect-leaseholders-from-cladding-costs-fails-despite-tory-rebellion

    Lifelong Conservative voters are abandoing the party over the crisis:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/29/lifelong-tory-voters-abandoning-party-over-cladding-crisis

    The Bank of England considers the risk to be so big it could take down the entire housing market and cause another financial crisis:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-considers-risk-of-financial-collapse-from-cladding-scandal-jwbpkpv0z


    I hadn't realised the shared ownership thing. That really puts the cherry on the turd.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    Cons are hitting the barriers with nimbys. Normally the LibDem would be everyone's favourite nimby, but the Greens are built for this kind of thing. Not only can you selfishly want to stop someone from building a home near you, but you can do so with joy in your heart as you convince yourself that you care passionately about crested newts and the climate crisis and not because you dont want some low cost housing blocking your view.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    lol

    "Breaking: Two French navy boats deployed to waters near Jersey: official --
    @AFP


    Breaking: France 'won't be intimidated' by British manoeuvres at Jersey: French minister --
    @AFP"


    https://twitter.com/JeromeTaylor/status/1390232736036573185?s=20


    THIS IS IT LADS

    GAME ON
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    WAR

    What is it good for?
    Khaki elections.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103
    On topic - for once, I don't think I fully agree with Robert here.
    I agree that housing is an important issue to address.
    And I agree that homeowning is closely aligned with voting Conservative.
    But I think the cultural aspect is just as important to Conservative success.
    The Conservative vote in general elections is primarily dependent on how worried people are by the Labour Party. When people perceive the Labour Party as hostile to the, the Conservative vote goes up. My view is that the primary reason for Labour suceess in 97, 01 and 05 is that people did not fear them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    Endillion said:

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    The problem is, almost all of those are demand-side solutions, which tend to increase prices at the same time as getting people into houses, which makes the problem worse in the long run.

    What we need is increased supply.
    Any and all solutions to housing unaffordability start with building more houses.

    Government need to release acres of brownfield land they’re sitting on, and planning permissions need to have penalties on developers for land banking.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,469


    Cons are hitting the barriers with nimbys. Normally the LibDem would be everyone's favourite nimby, but the Greens are built for this kind of thing. Not only can you selfishly want to stop someone from building a home near you, but you can do so with joy in your heart as you convince yourself that you care passionately about crested newts and the climate crisis and not because you dont want some low cost housing blocking your view.

    Unlike the other parties we Greens don't patronise poor people by pretending to respect them.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    If the Conservative Party wants to keep all these new home owners on board, they need to ensure that freeholders subject to estate rent charges and management companies have protections and rights. Currently they have next-to-none.

    Isnt there some freehold reforms going through at the moment?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 409
    If the grey line is territorial waters then the French warship is sticking just outside. The 2 British ships are the red and the grey arrows to the SW of Jersey. Typical French behaviour really - they don't want to follow the rules so start going on stike to protest.


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    France & Spain getting a shift on:

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214

    If the Conservative Party wants to keep all these new home owners on board, they need to ensure that freeholders subject to estate rent charges and management companies have protections and rights. Currently they have next-to-none.

    Isnt there some freehold reforms going through at the moment?
    I hope so but I'm not aware of the details.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,484
    IanB2 said:

    Question. Is it legal to park a car literally plastered in party logos directly outside the door of the polling station?

    Yes , so long as it is outside the precinct
    Having re-checked the guidance it is a question of proportionality. A teller wearing a rosette is OK. I am not sure that a car plastered in large Alba signs at the doorway of the polling station is OK.

    "Is it legal to literally park your car outside the front door of the polling station Mr Salmond?" I asked. "The law doesn't apply to candidates." "I think it does. Are you going to move or do I need to complain to the returning officer?"

    He moved the car. Have since been told that when he is not driving round with his megaphone that he has literally parked the Alba-mobile outside a stack of polling stations.

    From the Electoral Commission's guidance: "Tellers should not display or distribute election material (e.g. billboards, posters, placards or pamphlets) on walls or around the polling place. Any display of such material should be brought to the attention of the Presiding Officer immediately." The Electoral Commission also notes that advice to tellers applies to anyone.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 246
    Just seen pictures of starmer voting...she was wearing sunglasses but his wife doesn't look half bad. Good for him
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,334
    AlistairM said:

    If the grey line is territorial waters then the French warship is sticking just outside. The 2 British ships are the red and the grey arrows to the SW of Jersey. Typical French behaviour really - they don't want to follow the rules so start going on stike to protest.


    Zig-zagging just outside the exclusion zone?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    kyf_100 said:

    The way the Conservatives have hung leaseholders out to dry over the cladding scandal is a national disgrace.

    There are people who bought 25% of a flat under a shared ownership scheme with deposits as little as 35k who are now expected to pony up twice that to fix defects they weren't responsible for while the developers who caused them get off scot free. For a flat they "own" quarter of yet are responsible for 100% of the bills.

    1.3 million flats in the UK are currently unmortgageable, people's lives are on hold, and MPs have voted five times now not to protect leaseholders from costs that will likely bankrupt them.

    While I'm not directly affected by any of this I know people who are and I was close to buying a property that is affected by all of this - so it's a bit of a "there but for the grace of god go I" thing for me.

    Stories like this are commonplace:

    https://conversation.which.co.uk/home-energy/abi-tubis-leeds-dangerous-cladding/

    MPs have voted five times against an amendment to protect leaseholders from ruinous bills:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/27/vote-to-protect-leaseholders-from-cladding-costs-fails-despite-tory-rebellion

    Lifelong Conservative voters are abandoing the party over the crisis:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/29/lifelong-tory-voters-abandoning-party-over-cladding-crisis

    The Bank of England considers the risk to be so big it could take down the entire housing market and cause another financial crisis:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-considers-risk-of-financial-collapse-from-cladding-scandal-jwbpkpv0z


    It sucks but I can understand why owners need to pay upkeep, even unexpected upkeep. It happens, you gain when the property goes up in value, but have to pay maintenance. But this is the first I've heard that shared ownership, one owner has to pay the full costs and the other owner does not. That makes no sense at all to me.

    If a tenant is renting, their landlord has to pay maintenance. If 25% shared ownership why doesn't the 25% owner pay 25% of the cost, and the 75% owner the other 75%? That seems utterly illogical, to be able to own but not be responsible for upkeep.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,357
    Carnyx said:

    kyf_100 said:

    The way the Conservatives have hung leaseholders out to dry over the cladding scandal is a national disgrace.

    There are people who bought 25% of a flat under a shared ownership scheme with deposits as little as 35k who are now expected to pony up twice that to fix defects they weren't responsible for while the developers who caused them get off scot free. For a flat they "own" quarter of yet are responsible for 100% of the bills.

    1.3 million flats in the UK are currently unmortgageable, people's lives are on hold, and MPs have voted five times now not to protect leaseholders from costs that will likely bankrupt them.

    While I'm not directly affected by any of this I know people who are and I was close to buying a property that is affected by all of this - so it's a bit of a "there but for the grace of god go I" thing for me.

    Stories like this are commonplace:

    https://conversation.which.co.uk/home-energy/abi-tubis-leeds-dangerous-cladding/

    MPs have voted five times against an amendment to protect leaseholders from ruinous bills:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/27/vote-to-protect-leaseholders-from-cladding-costs-fails-despite-tory-rebellion

    Lifelong Conservative voters are abandoing the party over the crisis:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/29/lifelong-tory-voters-abandoning-party-over-cladding-crisis

    The Bank of England considers the risk to be so big it could take down the entire housing market and cause another financial crisis:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-considers-risk-of-financial-collapse-from-cladding-scandal-jwbpkpv0z


    I hadn't realised the shared ownership thing. That really puts the cherry on the turd.
    I can't find the exact figures for the 35k deposit 70k remediation bills but I think it was a development in Liverpool.

    Here's a similar story from 5 days ago about someone who put down a £15k deposit for a 25% stake and is now expecting a 50k bill

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/refugee-who-saw-home-destroyed-24019994

    So there are a lot of these stories out there, even at a cursory search.

    The idea that shared owners are responsible for 100% of maintenance costs just beggars belief to me. Anyone who buys shared ownership after this needs their head examined.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    If the Conservative Party wants to keep all these new home owners on board, they need to ensure that freeholders subject to estate rent charges and management companies have protections and rights. Currently they have next-to-none.

    Isnt there some freehold reforms going through at the moment?
    I hope so but I'm not aware of the details.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55569094
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214

    kyf_100 said:

    The way the Conservatives have hung leaseholders out to dry over the cladding scandal is a national disgrace.

    There are people who bought 25% of a flat under a shared ownership scheme with deposits as little as 35k who are now expected to pony up twice that to fix defects they weren't responsible for while the developers who caused them get off scot free. For a flat they "own" quarter of yet are responsible for 100% of the bills.

    1.3 million flats in the UK are currently unmortgageable, people's lives are on hold, and MPs have voted five times now not to protect leaseholders from costs that will likely bankrupt them.

    While I'm not directly affected by any of this I know people who are and I was close to buying a property that is affected by all of this - so it's a bit of a "there but for the grace of god go I" thing for me.

    Stories like this are commonplace:

    https://conversation.which.co.uk/home-energy/abi-tubis-leeds-dangerous-cladding/

    MPs have voted five times against an amendment to protect leaseholders from ruinous bills:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/27/vote-to-protect-leaseholders-from-cladding-costs-fails-despite-tory-rebellion

    Lifelong Conservative voters are abandoing the party over the crisis:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/29/lifelong-tory-voters-abandoning-party-over-cladding-crisis

    The Bank of England considers the risk to be so big it could take down the entire housing market and cause another financial crisis:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-considers-risk-of-financial-collapse-from-cladding-scandal-jwbpkpv0z


    It sucks but I can understand why owners need to pay upkeep, even unexpected upkeep. It happens, you gain when the property goes up in value, but have to pay maintenance. But this is the first I've heard that shared ownership, one owner has to pay the full costs and the other owner does not. That makes no sense at all to me.

    If a tenant is renting, their landlord has to pay maintenance. If 25% shared ownership why doesn't the 25% owner pay 25% of the cost, and the 75% owner the other 75%? That seems utterly illogical, to be able to own but not be responsible for upkeep.
    This isn't maintenance though is it — the thing hasn't been built properly.

    A lot of people don't realise they have pretty much zero "consumer protection" when buying newly built houses or flats.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    AlistairM said:

    Voting anecdote.

    Definitely brisk in my Bucks village (Thames Valley PCC & Bucks County Council). I had to queue for a few minutes to get my voting sheet.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter but not entirely happy with how they run things locally and don't want to ever give a vote to Labour or the Lib Dems. Voted Tory for PCC and independent as 2nd choice for PCC. I was on the verge of giving several votes to the Greens until I realised that 2 of their candidates either was "somewhere in Bucks" or not local. Gave the Green candidate who lived in the village my vote along with 2 other very local Tories.

    I think the Greens will do very well in my area. Lots of posters up and I think there is a recognition that they have campaigned well locally. I'd never vote for them in a general election but they have had their first ever vote from me today.

    I'm disappointed, of course however you vote is up to you. The Greens are the biggest single danger to our democratic prosperous society. They can be contagious with their hysteria. Theyll have your local council diverting funds to employing their friends, oops, i mean climate change consultants away from the things that you might think are bread and butter important stuff.

    They are a poison in the body politic, the dear old lady in the bobble hat who seems a bit intense may seem harmless. But their creed will damage all of us.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,035
    IanB2 said:

    Question. Is it legal to park a car literally plastered in party logos directly outside the door of the polling station?

    Yes , so long as it is outside the precinct
    There is a statuary distance of, from memory, 50 yards, unless it's on private property. You need to talk to the Presiding Officer or the RO or their Deputy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    edited May 6
    Interesting header. I think both the following are possible -

    (1) "Values" being the new driver of voting intention is overstated and temporary. Soon we'll revert to a traditional politics based on disagreement as to how the economy should be structured.

    (2) "Values" as driver is real and here to stay. We are into a lasting new politics of liberal vs conservative in the American sense. Great for the Tories under FPTP because they have their side locked up with the other side split.

    If it's (1) Labour will be back in government before too long. If it's (2) it will be harder and it might need a realignment and coalescing of the Left to GTTO.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Taz said:

    If the Conservative Party wants to keep all these new home owners on board, they need to ensure that freeholders subject to estate rent charges and management companies have protections and rights. Currently they have next-to-none.

    Isnt there some freehold reforms going through at the moment?
    I hope so but I'm not aware of the details.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55569094
    That's about leaseholders, not freeholders.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Chris said:

    AlistairM said:

    If the grey line is territorial waters then the French warship is sticking just outside. The 2 British ships are the red and the grey arrows to the SW of Jersey. Typical French behaviour really - they don't want to follow the rules so start going on stike to protest.


    Zig-zagging just outside the exclusion zone?
    We need to sink it NOW before they get any nearer. Send in those flying Marines with jetpacks

    Then paratroops into central Paris, seize the Louvre, and maybe that nice bar on Rue de Buci, so we have enough cafe au lait?
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    edited May 6
    Is housing an issue for a government to solve ? Do we really want to be 1970s East Germany with government built shoeboxes ?

    Seems like we are heading for huge swathes of cities which used to house offices and shops being empty. Landlords can either leave them empty or switch them into housing.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,484
    Leon said:

    Chris said:

    AlistairM said:

    If the grey line is territorial waters then the French warship is sticking just outside. The 2 British ships are the red and the grey arrows to the SW of Jersey. Typical French behaviour really - they don't want to follow the rules so start going on stike to protest.


    Zig-zagging just outside the exclusion zone?
    We need to sink it NOW before they get any nearer. Send in those flying Marines with jetpacks

    Then paratroops into central Paris, seize the Louvre, and maybe that nice bar on Rue de Buci, so we have enough cafe au lait?
    Your previous regenerations were calmer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Why on earth are we talking about housing and not THIS


    "Disclose.tv P
    @disclosetv
    NEW - "We're ready for war. We can bring Jersey to its knees", head of the Normandy sea authority says. Macron sends military boat racing towards Jersey for stand-off with Royal Navy warships.
    10:57 AM · May 6, 2021"


    It will be over by Christmas
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Leon said:

    Why on earth are we talking about housing and not THIS


    "Disclose.tv P
    @disclosetv
    NEW - "We're ready for war. We can bring Jersey to its knees", head of the Normandy sea authority says. Macron sends military boat racing towards Jersey for stand-off with Royal Navy warships.
    10:57 AM · May 6, 2021"


    It will be over by Christmas

    Because that's much ado about nothing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Hahahaha


    '@ITVChannelTV
    A member of the Jersey Militia reenactment group was seen firing on the French boats with a musket from Elizabeth Castle this morning.

    It's after the flotilla of French fishermen who blockaded Jersey's main harbour returned to open water.

    https://itv.com/news/channel/2021-05-06/french-fishermen-en-route-to-blockade-jerseys-main-harbour
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 409

    AlistairM said:

    Voting anecdote.

    Definitely brisk in my Bucks village (Thames Valley PCC & Bucks County Council). I had to queue for a few minutes to get my voting sheet.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter but not entirely happy with how they run things locally and don't want to ever give a vote to Labour or the Lib Dems. Voted Tory for PCC and independent as 2nd choice for PCC. I was on the verge of giving several votes to the Greens until I realised that 2 of their candidates either was "somewhere in Bucks" or not local. Gave the Green candidate who lived in the village my vote along with 2 other very local Tories.

    I think the Greens will do very well in my area. Lots of posters up and I think there is a recognition that they have campaigned well locally. I'd never vote for them in a general election but they have had their first ever vote from me today.

    I'm disappointed, of course however you vote is up to you. The Greens are the biggest single danger to our democratic prosperous society. They can be contagious with their hysteria. Theyll have your local council diverting funds to employing their friends, oops, i mean climate change consultants away from the things that you might think are bread and butter important stuff.

    They are a poison in the body politic, the dear old lady in the bobble hat who seems a bit intense may seem harmless. But their creed will damage all of us.
    Having seen the Tories wave through a number of very poorly thought out housing developments (primarily encouraging local car travel by making walking/cycling dangerous/difficult) against significant local opposition I think they need a bit of a wake-up call. I think they should consider themselves lucky that most of the opposition was even more unpalatable than them.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,828
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1390244482801668096

    Jeremy Corbyn on twitter.
    ________________________________________
    Proud to vote Labour today for a kinder, fairer, more sustainable world.
    _______________________________________

    Fuck me, what a fucking classy bloke. Worth more than the rest of them put together.

    I would sit and laugh at Kieth I would be bitter and loving his failure, I would be working my ass off to get my own back.

    I just don't understand how the hell he does it but I admire the hell out of it.

    Also SUPER IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION: I am not voting Labour that was just Corbyn's words.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,503
    edited May 6

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    Cons are hitting the barriers with nimbys.
    Yes. This is their problem.

    Cons: "we have a housing problem, so let's build millions of new houses."
    LD/Green: "oh no you don't."

    It's exacerbated by the fact the new developments are so bloody awful. Round here there's a supposed "Green Belt" around Oxford (which in reality is half gravel pits and unappealing flatland). This means the massive new overspill estate is going literally 10 metres from the outer edge of the Green Belt - on the other side of the road that forms the boundary. So everyone who lives there will have an unnecessary 15-mile round trip to work along the most congested road in the county.

    In related news, the LDs are going to take the relevant county council division off the Tories today, and very possibly (in coalition) the entire county.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198
    AlistairM said:

    AlistairM said:

    Voting anecdote.

    Definitely brisk in my Bucks village (Thames Valley PCC & Bucks County Council). I had to queue for a few minutes to get my voting sheet.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter but not entirely happy with how they run things locally and don't want to ever give a vote to Labour or the Lib Dems. Voted Tory for PCC and independent as 2nd choice for PCC. I was on the verge of giving several votes to the Greens until I realised that 2 of their candidates either was "somewhere in Bucks" or not local. Gave the Green candidate who lived in the village my vote along with 2 other very local Tories.

    I think the Greens will do very well in my area. Lots of posters up and I think there is a recognition that they have campaigned well locally. I'd never vote for them in a general election but they have had their first ever vote from me today.

    I'm disappointed, of course however you vote is up to you. The Greens are the biggest single danger to our democratic prosperous society. They can be contagious with their hysteria. Theyll have your local council diverting funds to employing their friends, oops, i mean climate change consultants away from the things that you might think are bread and butter important stuff.

    They are a poison in the body politic, the dear old lady in the bobble hat who seems a bit intense may seem harmless. But their creed will damage all of us.
    Having seen the Tories wave through a number of very poorly thought out housing developments (primarily encouraging local car travel by making walking/cycling dangerous/difficult) against significant local opposition I think they need a bit of a wake-up call. I think they should consider themselves lucky that most of the opposition was even more unpalatable than them.
    Planning is so restricted nowadays its impossible to fix a scheme once it's been proposed.

    So you shouldn't really blame your local councillors the issue is the builders themselves.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    Right, leaving now to go and do my patriotic chore. I'm picking up a groundswell of support for Binface but I won't be arsing about like that. I vote Labour. So that's Sadiq. 1st pref and only pref.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,503
    eek said:

    Planning is so restricted nowadays its impossible to fix a scheme once it's been proposed.

    So you shouldn't really blame your local councillors the issue is the builders themselves.

    You're half right, but in my experience the builders take their lead from pre-application advice by the planning authority officials (SPDs, Area Action Plans, all of that). And that is entirely within the purview of the elected councillors to fix.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,980
    Why isn’t Jezza wearing a sailor suit? Shocking dereliction of duty.

    https://twitter.com/mundane_matthew/status/1390249084494168067?s=21
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,323
    IanB2 said:

    Steady, not brisk

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The problem is, the problem is insoluble. People need to believe both that the Tories can't solve it (true) and that Labour can (false). It's only a house price crash that would scupper the Tories.

    What is needed is inflation (and especially wage inflation) so that house prices reduce in real but not monetary terms.

    The question is how do you get there in a deflationary world.
    Then the problem shifts to the debt burden, both for government and some of those homeowners
    It really doesn't - inflation would be a pancea for the debt burden. It would effectively rob debt holders, and the downsides of excessive inflation are obvious, but a good long run at 2-3% would be pretty beneficial all round.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    As someone fairly close to the coal face on this thread, there's a LOT going on to get first time buyers in to new homes. First of all wherever I drive around our local towns and villages, there are housing estates galore going up, Tring, Aylesbury, Leighton Buzzard and thousands on the new M1 junction behind Houghton Regis for example.

    Then there's the LISA and HTB ISA, the rebirth of 95% LTV mortgages (and lots of 90%) plus new initiatives like Nationwide's Helping Hand criteria just launched where income multiples of circa 5.5x are now possible for long term fixes for FTBs. I've client's children who've not been able to get on the ladder due to affordability constraints but having mustered a bit of a deposit but who now can with these things happening. It's very exciting for them (and for me!) to have good news now.

    Only a small snippet but that's my perspective.

    Cons are hitting the barriers with nimbys.
    Yes. This is their problem.

    Cons: "we have a housing problem, so let's build millions of new houses."
    LD/Green: "oh no you don't."

    It's exacerbated by the fact the new developments are so bloody awful. Round here there's a supposed "Green Belt" around Oxford (which in reality is half gravel pits and unappealing flatland). This means the massive new overspill estate is going literally 10 metres from the outer edge of the Green Belt - on the other side of the road that forms the boundary. So everyone who lives there will have an unnecessary 15-mile round trip to work along the most congested road in the county.

    In related news, the LDs are going to take the relevant county council division off the Tories today, and very possibly (in coalition) the entire county.
    Building a development usually comes with loads of ballast around "affordable housing" and new houses have tiny windows to meet green bollocks regulations.

    Priority should be brownfield sites - there are plenty of those around.
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