At the end of last week I drove through the Hartlepool constituency on the way back home from my holiday in North Northumberland in the hope of seeing something that I could snap to illustrate the by-election. Alas nothing was obvious on the A19 but maybe I was concentrating on the traffic!
Comments
The difficulty in canvassing is making it very hard to get a clear feeling. We are leafleting our target seats to death in my patch but apart from the odd thumbs up or no-thanks, there's no much feedback. In seat terms in my patch, I doubt if much will change, though Labour will pick up votes on last time simply because we're properly organised this time and last time I gather the local party was in disarray.
Not at all in agreement with the header though.
If you're not, you might or might not depending upon your experiences.
Its not all one or the other, you can't pigeon hole everyone the way you're trying to do. Your inference is wrong and you made it.
No not all anti-racist campaigners are bigots, only some of them. If you judge people by the colour of your skin then yes you are a bigot, most anti-racism campaigners don't do that - because its racism.
More that I'd place it around the 70/30 Mark. The PM has a huge percentage of the Leave vote sewn up. This is a very Leave seat. And one of the few where the Borough is coterminous with the constituency, so we know exactly the proportion rather than extrapolating.
So the value is with the Tories imho.
I don't try hard to come over as not racist, the reason I come off that way is simply that I'm not. Same as most people nowadays, especially most young people.
Racism is a thing of the past. Its an alien concept to like homophobia that should be left in the past.
Your attempts to try and flush everyone out as a secret racist is what is really off and phony. Maybe you should pay more attention to the man in the mirror and stop judging others.
Paula Vennells Apologises.
She does have some decency.
I’d still like to see her and others prosecuted for, appropriately, theft and false accounting against the subpostmasters.
You're coming across as quite bigoted. Maybe look in the mirror before you make any more accusations.
Or it suggests Mike doesn't have the full picture on how the Tories interact with local "independents"....
There may be something to what you say. Or maybe not.
Boris Johnson has shifted focus of Covid passport scheme away from hospitality
Officials ordered to concentrate on devising system to enable foreign travel
Follows backlash from Tory MPs and hospitality industry about Covid passports"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9510199/Boris-Johnson-shelves-plans-bring-controversial-Covid-passport-certification-scheme.html
America also intends to pay for an expansion of manufacturing capability for the vaccine manufacturer in India.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/25/us-pledges-medical-aid-for-india-to-combat-surge-484584
18 April: 275,063 (record)
19 April: 257,003
20 April: 294,365 (record)
21 April: 315,735 (record)
22 April: 332,518 (record)
23 April: 345,281 (record)
24 April: 348,979 (record)
25 April: 354,653 (record)
https://inews.co.uk/news/health/nhs-chiefs-urge-black-britons-to-come-forward-for-covid-jab-in-last-big-push-to-boost-uptake-971593?ito=twitter_share_article-top
"In May 2019, following multiple defections from Labour to Socialist Labour at Hartlepool Borough Council, Independent Union forged a coalition with the Conservatives and the Veterans and People's Party, forming the largest grouping with 11 councillors, 6 shy of control. At the Annual General Meeting of the council, leader of the coalition, Cllr Shane Moore, was elected the Leader of the Council, with his Deputy, Cllr Mike Young being voted deputy leader.
In September 2019, all IU councillors, as well as the one Veterans and People's Party councillor, who made up the coalition at Hartlepool Borough Council defected to the Brexit Party, renaming their already existing coalition with the three Conservative councillors to the "Brexit and Conservative Coalition". Despite this, the IU was still registered with the Electoral Commission with Shane Moore listed as its current leader. The party leader has been Shane Moore since 2019.
In early 2020, several of the councillors concerned returned to their parties, including the Independent Union and Veterans and People's Party."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56880376
For instance, Bet365: 1/100 Sadiq; 12/1 Rose; 20/1 Bailey.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56880377
More than 600 pieces of medical equipment are being sent to India as the country faces a record surge of coronavirus cases, the UK government has said.
The assistance package includes 495 oxygen concentrators - which extract oxygen from the air to give to patients - as well as ventilators....
The first shipment of equipment will leave the UK on Sunday and is due to arrive in the Indian capital, New Delhi, in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
In total, the UK will send nine airline containers of supplies this week, including 495 oxygen concentrators, 120 non-invasive ventilators and 20 manual ventilators.
...
Racism still exists. Not as much as it used to, and the UK can be proud of what it's achieved in the last fifty years.
But when Tommy Robinson creates a fake video of him being hit by an African migrant and that gets a million views and tens of thousands of likes, that tells you there's some definitely racism. I could give you a hundred more examples - many of which don't involve white people at all - that tell us that we need to be on guard.
It is also worth remembering that the UK is not the US. There is far more systemic racism, particularly in the Deep South, in the US than in the UK. And there is a legacy of slavery and Jim Crow and voter suppression that the UK simply doesn't have.
The problem is that Critical Race theory does nothing to overturn the real racism that exists, it serves only as an enormous distraction and something that (sadly) puts a large number of normal people on the same side as Tommy Robinson.
"Upon request for assistance by #India, we have activated the #EU Civil Protection Mechanism.
The 🇪🇺 will do its utmost to mobilise assistance to support people of 🇮🇳.
Our #ERCC is already coordinating EU MS that are ready to provide urgently needed #oxygen & medicine rapidly."
https://twitter.com/JanezLenarcic/status/1386270858688270336?s=19
Germany is apparently sending 23 oxygen generating plants.
https://twitter.com/SwarajyaMag/status/1385466997660479490?s=19
Scottish parliament voting intention(s):
Constituency:
SNP: 50% (+1)
LAB: 21% (+1)
CON: 21% (-)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
List:
SNP: 35% (-3)
LAB: 22% (+1)
CON: 20% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
ALBA: 3% (-)
via @Survation, 20-22 Apr
Chgs. w/ 30 Mar
More data:
https://t.co/sEKbDLbuT5 https://t.co/crpLb8nzlN
Michael Gove deciding to step things up a gear, it seems. Will be interesting to see just how much "Yeah, we know he's a liar and a shitty human" is baked in to Boris Johnson's numbers. I fear the answer is a lot.
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1386547963258880001?s=20
https://twitter.com/james_blue_cat/status/1385859032007778306
Mike, David Herdson and others may be right. I initially couldn't quite believe the odds that the tories would win Hartlepool which hasn't been on their radar and which didn't fall in 2019 (albeit because of a big UKIP vote). The aforementioned make good arguments for why Labour are value. After all, as Mike pointed out, only twice in 50 years have sitting Governments won by-elections from an opposition party and one of those doesn't really count.
However and it's a BIG however, anyone thinking that the Brexit vote was just about Brexit fundamentally and I mean fundamentally misunderstands it. It was NOT just about Brexit. It was a revolt. A seismic shift. A once-in-a-generation shift which won't just go away like that. I've lived in one of these Brexit seats during the latter half of the 2010's and I can tell you that Brexit was just an emblem of something far more fundamental. It was about disenfranchisement, disconnection with metropolitan middle class politicians from London in general and Westminster in particular. It was a hard nosed feeling that the EU left behind British workers, that the gravy train had gone straight through their station without stopping. All that was left was the wind whistling on a deserted platform, blowing dead leaves into desolate piles. There was dereliction in these ghost towns. The people felt as hollow as their boarded up shops.
Theresa May, Sir Keir Starmer and even Jeremy Corbyn - middle class Londoners all - totally failed to connect with this. But posh Boris knew better. By luck or nous he spoke to their feelings and won their support. Challenge his sincerity all you like, hell I know I do, but he still 'got it.'
These new tory red wall voters won't go in a flash. They haven't forgotten Brexit. They haven't forgotten what Starmer stood for: right up to his eyes in the attempt to remain in the EU. It will take another 20 years before these voters switch back. This is what happens: it's the same as when Maggie won over aspirational working class voters in 1979 onwards. Oh and, by the way, Maggie defeated the totally discredited Michael Foot but I don't think that means she wasn't a phenomenally successful politician. Neil Kinnock, whom she defeated in 1987 and 1992, wasn't exactly flavour of the month with the British tabloids either.
Into this melee, Sir Keir Starmer has parachuted an arch Remainer candidate, a man who explicitly wished to revoke the 2016 vote and undo Brexit and who lost a red wall seat in 2019.
These are the counter arguments as to why Labour will lose the Hartlepool by-election.
We will see!
All these anecdotes have much in common. They are relatively rare but they still do happen - possible a handful of times a month - and that's frequent enough to feel endemic and, when they do they are all the most upsetting for their rarity, because they remind people how some still truly see them. All they want is to be treated exactly the same as everyone else. Not to have statues pulled down, our society racialised, excoriated and divided and shit.
That's where effort needs to be focussing: in changing those last bastions of poor everyday attitudes and behaviour, not in middle-class people incessantly preaching to each other about white fragility and white privilege, policing each others language and starting a culture war against British history.
I think it's the sheer facile nature of that and it's banality, together with its utter narcissism, self-indulgence and faux intellectualism, that gets me.
The thing that worries me most about my bet is the Tory candidates, who by most accounts is decidedly average and many are baffled as to why she was selected (probably knew someone).
If the Tories win it will be in spite of the candidate not because of them.
The USA is uniquely (Aside from Israel which is small) supply limited with Moderna and Pfizer doing all the lifting. The FDA shouldn't have to OK something that won't be used in India, all that needs checking is the batch quality; India (Or Mexico if the USA wants to keep it in continent) could send their own experts to do this.
Doubtless I'm preaching to the choir on this one, just so sad that such a life saving vaccine is doing nothing in Maryland.
150 million doses would actually go a long way in India due to their population pyramid being triangularish too
@IanB2 mentioned on the last thread a group around Francis Maude (serial plotter from the New Labour years) and Dominic Cummings named a mate of Carrie's.
It's just like Line of Duty.
It doesn't prevent having a more rounded view of British history though. I was glad to see last week's plan to try to reverse the racism of the CWGC in the past, for example. That is not erasing our history, it is uncovering it.
https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1385134339130892289?s=19
https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1386561237526491136
Some of the border seats are apparently not counting until Sunday. Many others, including my own in South Angus, on Saturday. Finding out the make up of the new Scottish Parliament is going to be a long, drawn out affair. Some American practices we really don't want to import.
ETA - https://news.sky.com/story/ex-post-office-chief-vennells-quits-morrisons-and-dunelm-boards-12287211
Not that I disagree with your main point, incidentally.
That's not me. I just see it as finishing a journey and ensuring that every Briton enjoys this country on the same terms I do. I don't see our country or nation as damned nor believe white people are responsible for its most grevious ills.
I agree with the CWGC ensuring they have correctly commemorated everyone, of course.
Somebody’s going to get stung. You don’t care who, and would like it to be both. But it will be very funny.
Have a good morning.
Looking at more fundamental factors the Brexit vote suggests that Labour was pretty lucky to win this seat against split opposition in 2019 and may be vulnerable in 2021. OTOH historical trends make bye election wins for a government that is not as far ahead in the National polls as it was on election day 2019 very rare beasts indeed.
I genuinely don't know how to call this. The information quality is as poor as the respective candidates and you can make plausible arguments either way. That does suggest the odds against party, Labour, is the value but it doesn't give much of a clue about who is going to win.
Though it was Johnson who put him at the centre of his team knowing this, a classic example of how Johnson uses people, then ditches them. It is no wonder there are no known long term Johnson loyalists, not even in his own family.
Mr. L, aye. Wonder if the princess is still angry at the ex-grand vizier.
Tommy Robinson, his scumbag followers and anyone like them are in the minority that the majority of non racist people abhor. In the past such views would have been shared by many more people. Just because most people aren't racist doesn't mean we shouldn't try and deal with those that are.
As for the USA I 100% agree that the USA is not the UK. When the typical number of black people killed by American cops measures hundreds per annum, versus around zero in the UK, the two are worlds apart.
Finally I would note that racism is being and has been largely defeated in the UK by being anti racist. Things like the Macpherson Report etc have dealt with it. Not going on about critical race theory etc.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1386569571205844992?s=20
So a potentially dangerous opponent who can land a haymaker of a soundbite. A completely unnecessary fight. A distraction. Silly, very silly.
The problem Boris now has. There are one of two explanations:
a) The "Let the bodies pile high" quote is a complete fabrication. In which case he appointed a serial fantasist as his most senior advisor.
b) The quote is true.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1386569232444448768?s=20
The important thing is that he has decided to destroy Johnson and is quite well placed, for historical reasons, to do significant damage.
However, if anybody deserves to be brought low by lies it's Johnson.
Sometimes, the simplest explanations are the best.
Harder one to make sense of is Dom. Whatever it is he wants, how does he get it by going so nuclear so publicly so early?
Right now the news is constantly contrasting the relatively good situation here with the horror in India. It might be that that looms larger in the collective mind than a quote that, if the situation weren't both still active and relatively good for the UK (and its government), would be very damaging.
That's not really sat on.
Remember on December 14th the Government was threatening Greenwich council to keep schools open days before London went into a second lockdown.
Even then it was obvious was the situation was going to be...
The thing with exponential growth is that by the time you know you have a problem, the problem is already out of your control.
And we didn't have an India type situation here, that was prevented.
So . . . nul points.