The wider political aspects of green fanaticism and doom mongering, is who does it hurt the most in terms of votes? Is there a danger on the left that the more they talk up the climate crisis/emergency that they push people towards the Greens as a party and just annoy your own support?
For very many people, the notion of a "climate emergency" is meaningless. Yes, there may be some concern about polar bears but for most people the climate equals the weather and the weather, except for short periods, is relatively benign here.
The extent to which changes in climate will or may produce changes in the way we live is more problematic - obviously the possible loss of a winter sports industry in Scotland will be locally very serious but beyond that...
Coastal erosion is very serious if your house ends up over a cliff but again it's not an issue for the majority.
Hot summers (with temperatures regularly above 40c in London) will be difficult but we'll adapt. Elderly people will need to be protected but that can be organised. Flooding (of all kinds) can be mitigated with bigger walls or more imaginative solutions.
Short of a single catastrophic event, climate change will likely manifest slowly and gradually and insidiously over the coming decades. The political response to that is twofold - the short term mitigation of the immediate consequences and the longer term technological solutions to ensure the damage to the environment is reduced and ultimately reversed.
At the moment, platitudes lead the way - progress is being made (though I think that's little to do with politics) but there's still a strong element in some countries who either refuse to accept or are too frightened to admit there is a problem.
A UKcentric take on the matter. It won't be the loss of the Scottish ski resorts we notice, it'll be the knock on effects of the tropics becoming uninhabitable and their populations wanting to move North whether North wants them or not.
Time to buy land in Greenland and Alaska?
How did she respond?
Gerald Grosvenor bought 150,000 acres of Northern Canada about a decade ago as his personal hedge against climate change
It was just a little joke on Alaska, as warbled by Perry Como where has Oregon boy where has Oregon? if you wan Al-ask-a Alaska where she's gone.
But shifting SW3 to Canada would be good move.
D’you think that Arkan-saw? But what did Tennessee?
And Teflon Johnson will emerge completely unscathed I suspect.
Cummings standing in the country hardly helps his personal attack on Boris
As I said previously if it something other than noise we will see in a couple of weeks
Think the opposite, that Cumming's standing actually enhances his personal attacks.
Why didn't DC get the sack when he richly deserved it? Because he was at the heart of BJ's cabal. Now they've fallen out, and the flunky is doing a Michael Cohen.
Highly credible, because Cummings was in the belly of the beast.
“they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers”
That is what is going to be necessary, though. Moving from the century of oil & gas to a zero-carbon century is going to require serious sacrifices.
May as well be honest about it. People see through the political framing bullshit, and then get angry.
Is it worth it? It seems to be presumed that 2deg C of warming is such a potential catastrophe that its worth any amount of sacrifice to avoid it. This is a dubious assumption on two grounds:
1) Other than loudly bleating about the "scientific consensus" being that warming is bad, and periodically blaming any bad weather of any kind on global warming (usually just as unsupported assertion) no one seems to want to talk about what a given degree of warning might mean. It would be logical to expect both winners and losers from the process to start with, but no one seems to want to talk about any potential gains, only losses, and only then in the most nebulous of terms.
2 degrees of warming means that rice won’t grow in south east Asia.
A billion hungry Chinese with pointy sticks will not be a good thing for the west
I find that unlikely. China is a famine culture - they will eat anything. If rice stops growing, they'll grow something else.
And Teflon Johnson will emerge completely unscathed I suspect.
In the game of last man standing:
Dom v Boris - Boris always to win
Salmond v Sturgeon - Sturgeon always to win.
Boris v Sturgeon - the Championship final still being played.
(Boris v SKS was an early round eliminator - Boris won easily.)
The other cup competition being played is a round robin for Who Blinks First over Ireland; played between Boris, RoI, EU and NI (represented here by the DUP). It's been in extra time for the last year or so.
“they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers”
That is what is going to be necessary, though. Moving from the century of oil & gas to a zero-carbon century is going to require serious sacrifices.
May as well be honest about it. People see through the political framing bullshit, and then get angry.
Is it worth it? It seems to be presumed that 2deg C of warming is such a potential catastrophe that its worth any amount of sacrifice to avoid it. This is a dubious assumption on two grounds:
1) Other than loudly bleating about the "scientific consensus" being that warming is bad, and periodically blaming any bad weather of any kind on global warming (usually just as unsupported assertion) no one seems to want to talk about what a given degree of warning might mean. It would be logical to expect both winners and losers from the process to start with, but no one seems to want to talk about any potential gains, only losses, and only then in the most nebulous of terms.
2 degrees of warming means that rice won’t grow in south east Asia.
A billion hungry Chinese with pointy sticks will not be a good thing for the west
2 degrees is pretty much baked in. The question for our children is whether we can stop it there.
Indeed. Basically we're already steaming straight towards the iceberg. We might be able to turn slightly enough to deflect off it rather than ram it, but we're not going to avoid it and the only question is how bad the damage is going to be.
There's a theory that altering course is what did for the Titanic, she should have kept straight on and rammed it.
The wider political aspects of green fanaticism and doom mongering, is who does it hurt the most in terms of votes? Is there a danger on the left that the more they talk up the climate crisis/emergency that they push people towards the Greens as a party and just annoy your own support?
For very many people, the notion of a "climate emergency" is meaningless. Yes, there may be some concern about polar bears but for most people the climate equals the weather and the weather, except for short periods, is relatively benign here.
The extent to which changes in climate will or may produce changes in the way we live is more problematic - obviously the possible loss of a winter sports industry in Scotland will be locally very serious but beyond that...
Coastal erosion is very serious if your house ends up over a cliff but again it's not an issue for the majority.
Hot summers (with temperatures regularly above 40c in London) will be difficult but we'll adapt. Elderly people will need to be protected but that can be organised. Flooding (of all kinds) can be mitigated with bigger walls or more imaginative solutions.
Short of a single catastrophic event, climate change will likely manifest slowly and gradually and insidiously over the coming decades. The political response to that is twofold - the short term mitigation of the immediate consequences and the longer term technological solutions to ensure the damage to the environment is reduced and ultimately reversed.
At the moment, platitudes lead the way - progress is being made (though I think that's little to do with politics) but there's still a strong element in some countries who either refuse to accept or are too frightened to admit there is a problem.
A UKcentric take on the matter. It won't be the loss of the Scottish ski resorts we notice, it'll be the knock on effects of the tropics becoming uninhabitable and their populations wanting to move North whether North wants them or not.
Time to buy land in Greenland and Alaska?
How did she respond?
Gerald Grosvenor bought 150,000 acres of Northern Canada about a decade ago as his personal hedge against climate change
It was just a little joke on Alaska, as warbled by Perry Como where has Oregon boy where has Oregon? if you wan Al-ask-a Alaska where she's gone.
But shifting SW3 to Canada would be good move.
D’you think that Arkan-saw? But what did Tennessee?
I calculated that the differential between the price per KW of electricity and natural gas supplied to my house (2.3p vs 12.8p) is so great I could theoretically save money by generating my electricity with a gas powered genset, despite its inefficiencies.
For apartment complexes with shared heating and hot water, you can use combined heat and power units and then your effective efficiencies are pretty high.
Bear in mind, though, that you can't have the entire country generating electricity at home from natural gas, because the local gas distribution grid has perhaps a fifth of the capacity that is needed.
“they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers”
That is what is going to be necessary, though. Moving from the century of oil & gas to a zero-carbon century is going to require serious sacrifices.
May as well be honest about it. People see through the political framing bullshit, and then get angry.
Is it worth it? It seems to be presumed that 2deg C of warming is such a potential catastrophe that its worth any amount of sacrifice to avoid it. This is a dubious assumption on two grounds:
1) Other than loudly bleating about the "scientific consensus" being that warming is bad, and periodically blaming any bad weather of any kind on global warming (usually just as unsupported assertion) no one seems to want to talk about what a given degree of warning might mean. It would be logical to expect both winners and losers from the process to start with, but no one seems to want to talk about any potential gains, only losses, and only then in the most nebulous of terms.
2 degrees of warming means that rice won’t grow in south east Asia.
A billion hungry Chinese with pointy sticks will not be a good thing for the west
I find that unlikely. China is a famine culture - they will eat anything. If rice stops growing, they'll grow something else.
The land is pretty poor.
I thought the land in China, a lot of the ancient part at least, was really really good, which is why there are so many people?
Explosive line from @Peston: "As I understand it, Cummings has WhatsApp messages that substantiate his claims that he was exonerated as the leaker, and that the Cabinet Secretary Simon Case believed "all the evidence definitely leads to Henry Newman and others in that office"". https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1385671158117421057
I always thought it was important for Johnson to keep Cummings onside. Otherwise he would find a way to take revenge.
Hell has no fury like a flunky scorned. Especially when scorned for/by an inamorata.
Just ask the ghost of Sarah Churchill, 1st Duchess of Marlborough.
Abigail Masham (the Emma Stone character in the movie) was my direct ancestor 😄
Why is yours truly NOT surprised?
Personally do NOT think that Queen Anne and Mrs Masham were lovers. But what does the family think?
Certainly the Duchess got her revenge on her rival and her former BFF via her autobiography.
The wider political aspects of green fanaticism and doom mongering, is who does it hurt the most in terms of votes? Is there a danger on the left that the more they talk up the climate crisis/emergency that they push people towards the Greens as a party and just annoy your own support?
For very many people, the notion of a "climate emergency" is meaningless. Yes, there may be some concern about polar bears but for most people the climate equals the weather and the weather, except for short periods, is relatively benign here.
The extent to which changes in climate will or may produce changes in the way we live is more problematic - obviously the possible loss of a winter sports industry in Scotland will be locally very serious but beyond that...
Coastal erosion is very serious if your house ends up over a cliff but again it's not an issue for the majority.
Hot summers (with temperatures regularly above 40c in London) will be difficult but we'll adapt. Elderly people will need to be protected but that can be organised. Flooding (of all kinds) can be mitigated with bigger walls or more imaginative solutions.
Short of a single catastrophic event, climate change will likely manifest slowly and gradually and insidiously over the coming decades. The political response to that is twofold - the short term mitigation of the immediate consequences and the longer term technological solutions to ensure the damage to the environment is reduced and ultimately reversed.
At the moment, platitudes lead the way - progress is being made (though I think that's little to do with politics) but there's still a strong element in some countries who either refuse to accept or are too frightened to admit there is a problem.
A UKcentric take on the matter. It won't be the loss of the Scottish ski resorts we notice, it'll be the knock on effects of the tropics becoming uninhabitable and their populations wanting to move North whether North wants them or not.
Time to buy land in Greenland and Alaska?
How did she respond?
Gerald Grosvenor bought 150,000 acres of Northern Canada about a decade ago as his personal hedge against climate change
It was just a little joke on Alaska, as warbled by Perry Como where has Oregon boy where has Oregon? if you wan Al-ask-a Alaska where she's gone.
But shifting SW3 to Canada would be good move.
D’you think that Arkan-saw? But what did Tennessee?
And Teflon Johnson will emerge completely unscathed I suspect.
Cummings standing in the country hardly helps his personal attack on Boris
As I said previously if it something other than noise we will see in a couple of weeks
Think the opposite, that Cumming's standing actually enhances his personal attacks.
Why didn't DC get the sack when he richly deserved it? Because he was at the heart of BJ's cabal. Now they've fallen out, and the flunky is doing a Michael Cohen.
Highly credible, because Cummings was in the belly of the beast.
Vengeance is not a good look but as I keep saying judgement is less than 14 days away
Explosive line from @Peston: "As I understand it, Cummings has WhatsApp messages that substantiate his claims that he was exonerated as the leaker, and that the Cabinet Secretary Simon Case believed "all the evidence definitely leads to Henry Newman and others in that office"". https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1385671158117421057
I always thought it was important for Johnson to keep Cummings onside. Otherwise he would find a way to take revenge.
Hell has no fury like a flunky scorned. Especially when scorned for/by an inamorata.
Just ask the ghost of Sarah Churchill, 1st Duchess of Marlborough.
Abigail Masham (the Emma Stone character in the movie) was my direct ancestor 😄
Why is yours truly NOT surprised?
Personally do NOT think that Queen Anne and Mrs Masham were lovers. But what does the family think?
Certainly the Duchess got her revenge on her rival and her former BFF via her autobiography.
Of course they weren’t. That was just Mrs Churchill slandering Abby.
And Teflon Johnson will emerge completely unscathed I suspect.
Cummings standing in the country hardly helps his personal attack on Boris
As I said previously if it something other than noise we will see in a couple of weeks
Think the opposite, that Cumming's standing actually enhances his personal attacks.
Why didn't DC get the sack when he richly deserved it? Because he was at the heart of BJ's cabal. Now they've fallen out, and the flunky is doing a Michael Cohen.
Highly credible, because Cummings was in the belly of the beast.
Vengeance is not a good look but as I keep saying judgement is less than 14 days away
Partial judgement.
And of course, you and early voters like you are NOT impacted by the latest episode of the Downing Street soap opera.
Am NOT saying this enhances Cumming's reputation one whit. Great British Public still thinks he's a turd.
BUT that does NOT mean they think he's lying about Boris Johnson. Just like their ancestors didn't think Sarah Churchill was lying about Queen Anne
I calculated that the differential between the price per KW of electricity and natural gas supplied to my house (2.3p vs 12.8p) is so great I could theoretically save money by generating my electricity with a gas powered genset, despite its inefficiencies.
For apartment complexes with shared heating and hot water, you can use combined heat and power units and then your effective efficiencies are pretty high.
Bear in mind, though, that you can't have the entire country generating electricity at home from natural gas, because the local gas distribution grid has perhaps a fifth of the capacity that is needed.
I wasn't suggesting this is to be encouraged, more pointing out that green electricity can't possibly be claimed to be cheap compared to natural gas if its even remotely economic to generate your own electricity from gas. When idly considering this concept, I think I reckoned that the electricity cost was probably comparable with the grid, and I then got the free heating from the cooling water as a byproduct.
The UK's gas grid probably wouldn't be that overstretched if this did catch on (you can actually get combi boilers that also generate electricity when running) - my annual electricity usage is less than 20% of my gas usage, and that's probably pretty typical. Even at 25% efficiency, that's only going to double my gas consumption.
Looking forward to the time when his PB fanclub members will be truly ashamed.
Why?
They will never have been fans of BoZo. Always said he was a wrong 'un...
The only reason I hoped Cummings would survive was to deny Labour a scalp. I thought he was a loon and would be dispensed with afterwards and that is precisely what happened.
“they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers”
That is what is going to be necessary, though. Moving from the century of oil & gas to a zero-carbon century is going to require serious sacrifices.
May as well be honest about it. People see through the political framing bullshit, and then get angry.
Is it worth it? It seems to be presumed that 2deg C of warming is such a potential catastrophe that its worth any amount of sacrifice to avoid it. This is a dubious assumption on two grounds:
1) Other than loudly bleating about the "scientific consensus" being that warming is bad, and periodically blaming any bad weather of any kind on global warming (usually just as unsupported assertion) no one seems to want to talk about what a given degree of warning might mean. It would be logical to expect both winners and losers from the process to start with, but no one seems to want to talk about any potential gains, only losses, and only then in the most nebulous of terms.
2 degrees of warming means that rice won’t grow in south east Asia.
A billion hungry Chinese with pointy sticks will not be a good thing for the west
2 degrees is pretty much baked in. The question for our children is whether we can stop it there.
Indeed. Basically we're already steaming straight towards the iceberg. We might be able to turn slightly enough to deflect off it rather than ram it, but we're not going to avoid it and the only question is how bad the damage is going to be.
There's a theory that altering course is what did for the Titanic, she should have kept straight on and rammed it.
It's quite possibly true. Whilst hitting the iceberg Square on would have made a horrific mess, and probably killed many of those in the front 1/4 of the ship, she was designed to withstand at least a couple of compartments flooding - it was ripping a hole the length of a number of compartments which sank her.
"Caitlyn Jenner, the former Olympic athlete and reality television star, has announced she will be challenging California governor Gavin Newsom in the impending gubernatorial recall election."
“they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers”
That is what is going to be necessary, though. Moving from the century of oil & gas to a zero-carbon century is going to require serious sacrifices.
May as well be honest about it. People see through the political framing bullshit, and then get angry.
No it is not all what is going to be necessary (the electric car bit is) - and if it is necessary then it won't happen. Do you think the Chinese are going to choose not to fly just because we tell people they're killing pandas if they fly?
The solution, the only solution that will work is clean technologies.
Saying don't use power will not work. People won't listen to you. Saying "here is some clean and affordable power, use this instead of coal" people will listen to.
Saying don't fly will not work. People won't listen to you. Saying "here is a newly designed clean and affordable plane, use this instead of jet fuel" people will listen to.
Saying "don't eat meat" will not work. People won't listen to you. Full stop, I see no alternative to this one, the line is drawn here. Maybe find a way to offset against it because meat is happening.
Artificial meat will be a mainstream, cheap product inside a decade.
An interesting thought. Can artificial meat taste like roast rib of beef? Or will it taste more like a Quorn veggie sausage?
There was one brand of veggie beef pie that tasted so much like the real thing I couldn't eat it.
Good evening, everyone.
I've tried some of this food and it's mainly diabolical.
I had a "cauliflower steak" for dinner which is, let's face it, just a slice of cauliflower dressed up.
I woke up starving at 3am and had a massive bowl of crunchy nut cornflakes with gold top milk and toast.
Impossible and Beyond are really rather good. Indeed, I'd rather use Impossible than cheap meat, although that's probably because cheap US meat is really not that nice at all.
The best steak substitute imo is Portobello mushroom fried with plenty of butter and I think (though I've never tried) some soy sauce or some sort of veggy stock to add savour. You should also be able to get liquid off it to make a wine/cream sauce, as you would with a real piece of beef. It's natural and tastes good because it's food.
Obviously even better than that is a steak.
I love steak. And I love portobello (and other) mushrooms.
But as a substitute for mince, Beyond and Impossible are really good.
I've never heard of these brands before, just searched for them on ASDA's website and Beyond has pet food but nothing else. Seems to be expensive though.
Are these brands more expensive or cheaper than regular meat?
If they're more expensive then I see no point whatsoever in them.
At my local store, they're cheaper than nice meat, and more expensive than cheap meat.
IKEA veggie meatballs are very good indeed. Better than the meat ones.
Leon (the take-away, not our PB chum!) used to do nice vegan meatballs with rice.
I'm saying that we should have an adult discussion about what trying means, and whether it is a) actually possible to succeed and b) just how much is it worth spending trying.
I don't quite know what the dig at "the Left" is all about apart from it almost being a Pavlovian response among some.
The left traditionally sees itself as fighting for the rights of the poor, the low paid, the working class. The burden of all this will fall hardest on them, but the majority of the left seems totally unconcerned. In fairness, I did hear Ed Millband (of all people!) talking sense on this issue on radio 4 recently, although having pointed out this will shaft working people, he promptly tripped over his own shoelaces as his only solution was more government grants for home insulation, something this country did to death about ten years ago, with slim picking left.
@Philip_Thompson and I disagree on some aspects of the climate change debate but we do agree clean energy will be the answer and that has to mean exporting and explaining a new economic model based on the notion of clean energy.
The problem is that clean energy is very expensive. It's only competitive for UK electricity because we've rigged the market in it's favour. I calculated that the differential between the price per KW of electricity and natural gas supplied to my house (2.3p vs 12.8p) is so great I could theoretically save money by generating my electricity with a gas powered genset, despite its inefficiencies. Imagine how cheap UK electricity might be if we were gas turbines to generate the power instead of a renewable priority mix.
That was the easy bit anyway. Clean energy powered flight doesn't exist nor yet is there anything looking even slightly viable on the horizon. Clean energy for space heating existd, but for most of the UK's housing stock it's going to be cripplingly expensive compared to natural gas, as its uses electricity at about 5x the price per KW. Even a heat pump that at 2x efficiency, is double the cost of gas.
The only area where people "win" from clean energy is cars, and that's just a tax arbitrage because of fuel duty.
I'm not in the business of depriving the rest of the world of that which I take for granted - if that prosperity can be achieved without damaging the planet for future generations, that seems wholly desirable.
The problem I have is the damage has and is being done - we will have to live with the consequences of our past and present actions long after we have remediated the problem in the future.
For example, with rising sea levels, how are we to defend London from the river and the sea? Do we invest in ever larger defences or do we look at alternative solutions such as allowing the occasional flooding of alluvial land around the Thames Estuary?
Better have a word with that nice Mr Xi then, cos unless he's feeling helpful , it's going to happen anyway. Good luck...!
With a ground source heat pump my average efficiency over the year since last September is 4.4. So at 12p kwhr that's a bit less than 3p per kW. Plus you get about 10p per kW of heat generated in subsidy for the next 20 tears, which should pay the capital cost nicely. And I didn't have the option of gas, I replaced an oil boiler. Admittedly you need a field or more expensive vertical coils. And if you get the right tariff, electricity is about 5p per kwhr overnight, which is when you use most of it.
@Pulpstar you're the same age as me! How come you've got your vac today? Luck? Pre-existing condition?
Surgery sent me a message. No pre existing. Luck I guess
Lucky devil!
Pleased for you though.
Remember last one to be vaxxed gets the pb drinks in
As it happens I have had a needle in me today but that was for a general anaesthetic: I had a nasty impacted wisdom tooth removed that was playing on my facial nerves.
Now praying I can suppress the pain with co-codamal and ibuprofen.
Best of luck!
Thanks mate
Large brandy and zzzzzs. Hope you feel ok in the morning.. if slightly less wise.
“they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers”
That is what is going to be necessary, though. Moving from the century of oil & gas to a zero-carbon century is going to require serious sacrifices.
May as well be honest about it. People see through the political framing bullshit, and then get angry.
Is it worth it? It seems to be presumed that 2deg C of warming is such a potential catastrophe that its worth any amount of sacrifice to avoid it. This is a dubious assumption on two grounds:
1) Other than loudly bleating about the "scientific consensus" being that warming is bad, and periodically blaming any bad weather of any kind on global warming (usually just as unsupported assertion) no one seems to want to talk about what a given degree of warning might mean. It would be logical to expect both winners and losers from the process to start with, but no one seems to want to talk about any potential gains, only losses, and only then in the most nebulous of terms.
2 degrees of warming means that rice won’t grow in south east Asia.
A billion hungry Chinese with pointy sticks will not be a good thing for the west
I find that unlikely. China is a famine culture - they will eat anything. If rice stops growing, they'll grow something else.
The land is pretty poor.
I thought the land in China, a lot of the ancient part at least, was really really good, which is why there are so many people?
My vague sense is that it was really good, but it's been the land that's been most intensively farmed for longest, and so the quality of the soil has degraded seriously over time.
I seem to recall that there were a couple of people concerned that Biden was going to be anti-British, and that we faced a hostile US President. Not much sign of that so far.
“they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers”
That is what is going to be necessary, though. Moving from the century of oil & gas to a zero-carbon century is going to require serious sacrifices.
May as well be honest about it. People see through the political framing bullshit, and then get angry.
Is it worth it? It seems to be presumed that 2deg C of warming is such a potential catastrophe that its worth any amount of sacrifice to avoid it. This is a dubious assumption on two grounds:
1) Other than loudly bleating about the "scientific consensus" being that warming is bad, and periodically blaming any bad weather of any kind on global warming (usually just as unsupported assertion) no one seems to want to talk about what a given degree of warning might mean. It would be logical to expect both winners and losers from the process to start with, but no one seems to want to talk about any potential gains, only losses, and only then in the most nebulous of terms.
2 degrees of warming means that rice won’t grow in south east Asia.
A billion hungry Chinese with pointy sticks will not be a good thing for the west
I find that unlikely. China is a famine culture - they will eat anything. If rice stops growing, they'll grow something else.
The land is pretty poor.
I thought the land in China, a lot of the ancient part at least, was really really good, which is why there are so many people?
My vague sense is that it was really good, but it's been the land that's been most intensively farmed for longest, and so the quality of the soil has degraded seriously over time.
I think recurring famines have been a major part of Chinese history. The land is pretty marginal.
Having said that, their economy is big enough to buy calories elsewhere nowadays.
Politico.com - Johnson & Johnson says it has negotiated Covid-19 vaccine warning label with FDA Experts are meeting Friday to examine any connection between the shot and rare reports of blood clots in people who received it.
“they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers”
That is what is going to be necessary, though. Moving from the century of oil & gas to a zero-carbon century is going to require serious sacrifices.
May as well be honest about it. People see through the political framing bullshit, and then get angry.
Is it worth it? It seems to be presumed that 2deg C of warming is such a potential catastrophe that its worth any amount of sacrifice to avoid it. This is a dubious assumption on two grounds:
1) Other than loudly bleating about the "scientific consensus" being that warming is bad, and periodically blaming any bad weather of any kind on global warming (usually just as unsupported assertion) no one seems to want to talk about what a given degree of warning might mean. It would be logical to expect both winners and losers from the process to start with, but no one seems to want to talk about any potential gains, only losses, and only then in the most nebulous of terms.
2 degrees of warming means that rice won’t grow in south east Asia.
A billion hungry Chinese with pointy sticks will not be a good thing for the west
I find that unlikely. China is a famine culture - they will eat anything. If rice stops growing, they'll grow something else.
The land is pretty poor.
I thought the land in China, a lot of the ancient part at least, was really really good, which is why there are so many people?
My vague sense is that it was really good, but it's been the land that's been most intensively farmed for longest, and so the quality of the soil has degraded seriously over time.
I think recurring famines have been a major part of Chinese history. The land is pretty marginal.
Having said that, their economy is big enough to buy calories elsewhere nowadays.
So if trends continue, in a half-century or so, Great Britain could well be one big mushroom farm for the Chinese market? Something to look forward to!
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Don't know if anyone has commented on the latest INSA poll from Germany:
CDU/CSU 24% (-3) Greens 23% (+1) SPD 17% (+1) FDP 12% (+1) AfD 11% (-1) Linke 8% (-1)
What's your take on Laschet, Stodge? I'm extremely negative, I think Union won't win this time and the CDU will want to stay in opposition if possible rather than be a junior partner to the greens.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
I guess that’s more a sign of the wider problem that they decided they didn’t need to keep any restrictions in place.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson · 2h It’s easy to see this as just another chapter in “Rats in the Sack - the Rise & Fall of Dominic Cummings”. Easy but wrong. The PM’s former adviser is making very serious allegations about money, leaks & standards in public life
Let's see if that is the case.
Sadly, I suspect the voter reaction is going to be a combination of 'meh', they are all the same, and Boris is funny though isn't he/you'd have a pint with him.
Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson · 2h It’s easy to see this as just another chapter in “Rats in the Sack - the Rise & Fall of Dominic Cummings”. Easy but wrong. The PM’s former adviser is making very serious allegations about money, leaks & standards in public life
Let's see if that is the case.
Sadly, I suspect the voter reaction is going to be a combination of 'meh', they are all the same, and Boris is funny though isn't he/you'd have a pint with him.
I don’t think the voters will be given another chance at a GE.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
I think the situation is a reverse of the boy who cried wolf. Johnson has learnt to be cautious when we've finally reached the stage of not needing to be. Farcical.
Personally I am resolved to wait for my vaccine, but the level of vaccination in the country as a whole already removes any public health justification for emergency restrictions on liberty.
Forget WBA beating Chelsea, Leeds beating Man City, Leicester winning the EPL....most EPL teams, your never even keeping your stars players for more than a season or two. There is no dream....
That is more to do with the distribution of shared TV and commercial revenues.
In Germany the bottom club receives about 40% of the top club and then gets relegated to a league with far lower revenue. In England the bottom club receives about 60% of the top club, and then gets significant parachute payments.
Chicken and egg.....EPL is big bucks around the world, because it is such a competitive and exciting league, so can afford to share the money. Millions aren't getting up at all hours to watch every Bundersliga games.
Spanish, Italian and English top flights have all had periods of dominance, no reason the German league couldnt get there if they get it right. That would involve Bayern giving the others a chance to catch up through more equal revenue, at the expense of Bayerns Champions League progress for 5-10 years. Such a gamble may or may not pay off, but it is necessary for the Bundesliga to even have a chance at the top spot for drama and quality.
Good luck selling that....ok lads, right Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City, you have to got to get a lot crappier, forget competing for the Champions League.....the rest, you are still going to be crapper, the best players aren't going to be here, but it will be great as we can all play shitter football on a slightly more level playing field.
And less money coming in, the only way get cheaper ticket prices is big cuts to player salaries, so that again makes even less likely the best player come.
Big cuts to agent's fees could be a start. They leech huge sums out of the game.
The mindset of players here is amazing. They are happy to pay agents tens of millions of pounds for work they could get the best commercial lawyers in the world to do for a tiny fraction of the cost.
I dunno, Mesut Ozil’s agent did a good job for his client.
Not especially. Doubt he was any happier than other players of his ability. He was still in the top 3 or 4 in the world in his position when Arsenal gave him his last contract. The issue was Guardiola and Klopp changed the pressing and defensive demands on attackers so quickly that whilst he could still break down the weaker teams he simply couldnt cope against the elite teams.
A good agent would have sought out a manager and club happy to play his kind of number 10 role, not let him waste a third of his career.
Having watched the guy home and away between 2013 and 2020, I can assure you that money was his main focus. He was never that good, that’s why Real sold him.
He is the second fastest player to 50 assists in Premier League history (behind De Bruyne). You simply don't achieve that if you are never that good.
I’m not keen on assist stats as it’s often the pass before that is key. That said, his set piece delivery was always good.
The issue is more that he didn’t run the game. I see him as the anti-Pires. We always said that if Pires played well, then Arsenal played well. With Ozil, the opposite was true. If Arsenal didn’t play well, he didn’t play well.
This is demonstrated by the best performance by Arsenal during his time at the club bring a game in which he didn’t play:
That is true, he was a passenger against the good sides particularly in the second half of his time at the club. The blame for that lies as much with Wenger as it did with Ozil, and it doesnt take away the fact that he was exceptional against weaker opponents as demonstrated by his assist records. You may not like assists as a stat but the others in the top five in that category are De Bruyne, Cantona, Fabregas, Bergkamp, that speaks for itself imo. It is not something that happens to people who are not that good.
Never saw Cantona in the flesh (he had a reputation of choking in Europe, didn’t he?), but I can tell you Ozil was definitely not in the same class as the other three.
I saw Cantona on all his home games and he was a genius footballer
Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson · 2h It’s easy to see this as just another chapter in “Rats in the Sack - the Rise & Fall of Dominic Cummings”. Easy but wrong. The PM’s former adviser is making very serious allegations about money, leaks & standards in public life
Let's see if that is the case.
Sadly, I suspect the voter reaction is going to be a combination of 'meh', they are all the same, and Boris is funny though isn't he/you'd have a pint with him.
I don’t think the voters will be given another chance at a GE.
You think Boris is going to declare himself PM for life and abolish GEs?
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
I think the situation is a reverse of the boy who cried wolf. Johnson has learnt to be cautious when we've finally reached the stage of not needing to be. Farcical.
Personally I am resolved to wait for my vaccine, but the level of vaccination in the country as a whole already removes any public health justification for emergency restrictions on liberty.
I think you are probably right. We are running scared of cases in a population that would most likely have a mild to moderate disease at best, and accumulating evidence that the 33 million who have had at least one dose are incredibly well protected. I think last years breezy optimism has scared and scarred those taking decisions.
Forget WBA beating Chelsea, Leeds beating Man City, Leicester winning the EPL....most EPL teams, your never even keeping your stars players for more than a season or two. There is no dream....
That is more to do with the distribution of shared TV and commercial revenues.
In Germany the bottom club receives about 40% of the top club and then gets relegated to a league with far lower revenue. In England the bottom club receives about 60% of the top club, and then gets significant parachute payments.
Chicken and egg.....EPL is big bucks around the world, because it is such a competitive and exciting league, so can afford to share the money. Millions aren't getting up at all hours to watch every Bundersliga games.
Spanish, Italian and English top flights have all had periods of dominance, no reason the German league couldnt get there if they get it right. That would involve Bayern giving the others a chance to catch up through more equal revenue, at the expense of Bayerns Champions League progress for 5-10 years. Such a gamble may or may not pay off, but it is necessary for the Bundesliga to even have a chance at the top spot for drama and quality.
Good luck selling that....ok lads, right Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City, you have to got to get a lot crappier, forget competing for the Champions League.....the rest, you are still going to be crapper, the best players aren't going to be here, but it will be great as we can all play shitter football on a slightly more level playing field.
And less money coming in, the only way get cheaper ticket prices is big cuts to player salaries, so that again makes even less likely the best player come.
Big cuts to agent's fees could be a start. They leech huge sums out of the game.
The mindset of players here is amazing. They are happy to pay agents tens of millions of pounds for work they could get the best commercial lawyers in the world to do for a tiny fraction of the cost.
I dunno, Mesut Ozil’s agent did a good job for his client.
Not especially. Doubt he was any happier than other players of his ability. He was still in the top 3 or 4 in the world in his position when Arsenal gave him his last contract. The issue was Guardiola and Klopp changed the pressing and defensive demands on attackers so quickly that whilst he could still break down the weaker teams he simply couldnt cope against the elite teams.
A good agent would have sought out a manager and club happy to play his kind of number 10 role, not let him waste a third of his career.
Having watched the guy home and away between 2013 and 2020, I can assure you that money was his main focus. He was never that good, that’s why Real sold him.
He is the second fastest player to 50 assists in Premier League history (behind De Bruyne). You simply don't achieve that if you are never that good.
I’m not keen on assist stats as it’s often the pass before that is key. That said, his set piece delivery was always good.
The issue is more that he didn’t run the game. I see him as the anti-Pires. We always said that if Pires played well, then Arsenal played well. With Ozil, the opposite was true. If Arsenal didn’t play well, he didn’t play well.
This is demonstrated by the best performance by Arsenal during his time at the club bring a game in which he didn’t play:
That is true, he was a passenger against the good sides particularly in the second half of his time at the club. The blame for that lies as much with Wenger as it did with Ozil, and it doesnt take away the fact that he was exceptional against weaker opponents as demonstrated by his assist records. You may not like assists as a stat but the others in the top five in that category are De Bruyne, Cantona, Fabregas, Bergkamp, that speaks for itself imo. It is not something that happens to people who are not that good.
Never saw Cantona in the flesh (he had a reputation of choking in Europe, didn’t he?), but I can tell you Ozil was definitely not in the same class as the other three.
I saw Cantona on all his home games and he was a genius footballer
BBC: This is an explosive intervention from a man Boris Johnson used to count on as one of his closest allies.
And if you're tempted to roll your eyes and think it's just sour grapes from a jilted advisor, think again.
Dominic Cummings' blog is proof that he is willing to lift the lid on his time at the heart of Downing Street, regardless of how it reflects on the prime minister.
Beyond his denial of leaking text messages, he has also given his version of events relating to two potential political weak spots for Boris Johnson.
They are the questions over the financing of the renovation of the Downing Street flat and the leaking of a plan to impose a lockdown.
The level of detail shows that Mr Cummings is willing to expose others while defending himself and lay bare the inner workings of No 10.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
I think the situation is a reverse of the boy who cried wolf. Johnson has learnt to be cautious when we've finally reached the stage of not needing to be. Farcical.
Personally I am resolved to wait for my vaccine, but the level of vaccination in the country as a whole already removes any public health justification for emergency restrictions on liberty.
Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson · 2h It’s easy to see this as just another chapter in “Rats in the Sack - the Rise & Fall of Dominic Cummings”. Easy but wrong. The PM’s former adviser is making very serious allegations about money, leaks & standards in public life
Let's see if that is the case.
Sadly, I suspect the voter reaction is going to be a combination of 'meh', they are all the same, and Boris is funny though isn't he/you'd have a pint with him.
I don’t think the voters will be given another chance at a GE.
You think Boris is going to declare himself PM for life and abolish GEs?
Unlikely I would have thought.
Perhaps he will, hilariously, accidentally fail to reinstate the limits on the term length of a Parliament when repealing the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, leaving the timing of a future general election solely to the discretion of the Prime Minister.
I calculated that the differential between the price per KW of electricity and natural gas supplied to my house (2.3p vs 12.8p) is so great I could theoretically save money by generating my electricity with a gas powered genset, despite its inefficiencies.
For apartment complexes with shared heating and hot water, you can use combined heat and power units and then your effective efficiencies are pretty high.
Bear in mind, though, that you can't have the entire country generating electricity at home from natural gas, because the local gas distribution grid has perhaps a fifth of the capacity that is needed.
I wasn't suggesting this is to be encouraged, more pointing out that green electricity can't possibly be claimed to be cheap compared to natural gas if its even remotely economic to generate your own electricity from gas. When idly considering this concept, I think I reckoned that the electricity cost was probably comparable with the grid, and I then got the free heating from the cooling water as a byproduct.
The UK's gas grid probably wouldn't be that overstretched if this did catch on (you can actually get combi boilers that also generate electricity when running) - my annual electricity usage is less than 20% of my gas usage, and that's probably pretty typical. Even at 25% efficiency, that's only going to double my gas consumption.
I was actually looking into this as a "hey save money by generating your own electricity" business, and got into the numbers in some detail. Which is why I know it works for (many) apartment complexes.
The problem with doing in on a more widespread basis is that most (a) most people use more joules of electricity than of gas, and (b) electricity demand varies quite a lot with the time of day. So - unless you want Tesla PowerWalls in every home - you're limited by peak demand.
As an aside, banning gas for home heating is utterly retarded. Natural gas is a super efficient way to heat homes.
Any thoughts on how the Liberal - Yukon Party tie in the Yukon territorial election will play out?
An election decided by drawing lots. However, the loser has filed suit. It helps if you can look at the electoral roll and know everyone on it and whether they still live there. Or, in this case, fled town 20 years ago as a sex offender.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
I think the situation is a reverse of the boy who cried wolf. Johnson has learnt to be cautious when we've finally reached the stage of not needing to be. Farcical.
Personally I am resolved to wait for my vaccine, but the level of vaccination in the country as a whole already removes any public health justification for emergency restrictions on liberty.
I think you are probably right. We are running scared of cases in a population that would most likely have a mild to moderate disease at best, and accumulating evidence that the 33 million who have had at least one dose are incredibly well protected. I think last years breezy optimism has scared and scarred those taking decisions.
Look at Chile, though.
I don't expect another, worse than we've had so far, wave here, but I don't see how the chances of that happening can be lower than 10%. I do a lot of things, like wearing seat belts and life jackets, as a precaution against events which have a less than 0.1% chance of happening...
Any thoughts on how the Liberal - Yukon Party tie in the Yukon territorial election will play out?
An election decided by drawing lots. However, the loser has filed suit. It helps if you can look at the electoral roll and know everyone on it and whether they still live there. Or, in this case, fled town 20 years ago as a sex offender.
Know about the tie, between NDP and Yukon Party, and NDP winning coin toss. Which meant YP tied with Libs, with latter getting first crack at forming a govt because they were incumbent govt.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
Success in the first wave beget this idea that somehow India (or Germany or wherever) was somehow immune, or better organized, or it was sunlight and vitamin D.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
I think the situation is a reverse of the boy who cried wolf. Johnson has learnt to be cautious when we've finally reached the stage of not needing to be. Farcical.
Personally I am resolved to wait for my vaccine, but the level of vaccination in the country as a whole already removes any public health justification for emergency restrictions on liberty.
I think you are probably right. We are running scared of cases in a population that would most likely have a mild to moderate disease at best, and accumulating evidence that the 33 million who have had at least one dose are incredibly well protected. I think last years breezy optimism has scared and scarred those taking decisions.
Look at Chile, though.
I don't expect another, worse than we've had so far, wave here, but I don't see how the chances of that happening can be lower than 10%. I do a lot of things, like wearing seat belts and life jackets, as a precaution against events which have a less than 0.1% chance of happening...
I believe they have used a vaccine that’s been shown to be less effective than AZ and Pfizer? I also think we have suppressed cases so far now (potentially as low as last summer, given that we have now increased testing still further, and added lateral flow tests into the mix). I recall a suggestion that chile opened up with cases still pretty high.
Any thoughts on how the Liberal - Yukon Party tie in the Yukon territorial election will play out?
An election decided by drawing lots. However, the loser has filed suit. It helps if you can look at the electoral roll and know everyone on it and whether they still live there. Or, in this case, fled town 20 years ago as a sex offender.
Know about the tie, between NDP and Yukon Party, and NDP winning coin toss. Which meant YP tied with Libs, with latter getting first crack at forming a govt because they were incumbent govt.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
Success in the first wave beget this idea that somehow India (or Germany or wherever) was somehow immune, or better organized, or it was sunlight and vitamin D.
Whereas we’ve had the nemesis part already... I think we’re going to be ok, but there’s always a nagging doubt...
Just checked on how the Indian Space Programme is going. This is one of their latest tweets:
"ISRO @isro Visit of H.E. Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister for Europe & Foreign Affairs, Government of Republic of France to ISRO Headquarters & Human Space Flight Centre.
Speaking of tied elections, years ago observed a recount in a county commissioner race in a very small WA State county. Initial certification had incumbent ahead by one vote, which is what triggered the recount.
Hand recount resulted in the challenger (who I was representing) gaining a vote, thus creating a tie.
Under WA state law, ties are settled by flipping a coin, drawing lots or some other random method agreed by the two sides.
In this case was a coin toss - which the incumbent won.
Then about a week later, the incumbent died. At that point, state law directed the (remaining) county commissioners to pick a replacement. Which they did; their choice was NOT the other candidate, who would of course have been elected IF the coin had landed the other way.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
I think the situation is a reverse of the boy who cried wolf. Johnson has learnt to be cautious when we've finally reached the stage of not needing to be. Farcical.
Personally I am resolved to wait for my vaccine, but the level of vaccination in the country as a whole already removes any public health justification for emergency restrictions on liberty.
I think you are probably right. We are running scared of cases in a population that would most likely have a mild to moderate disease at best, and accumulating evidence that the 33 million who have had at least one dose are incredibly well protected. I think last years breezy optimism has scared and scarred those taking decisions.
Look at Chile, though.
I don't expect another, worse than we've had so far, wave here, but I don't see how the chances of that happening can be lower than 10%. I do a lot of things, like wearing seat belts and life jackets, as a precaution against events which have a less than 0.1% chance of happening...
We still have legal restrictions on whether people can visit our private homes. This is very far removed from seatbelts as a restriction.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
Success in the first wave beget this idea that somehow India (or Germany or wherever) was somehow immune, or better organized, or it was sunlight and vitamin D.
Luck has played a huge part in any success any country has had.
The UK vaccine program has made a lot of correct choices but its been lucky that the EU's attempts to sabotage it have been so incompetent and lucky again to get five million AZN from India before India hit crisis.
Any thoughts on how the Liberal - Yukon Party tie in the Yukon territorial election will play out?
An election decided by drawing lots. However, the loser has filed suit. It helps if you can look at the electoral roll and know everyone on it and whether they still live there. Or, in this case, fled town 20 years ago as a sex offender.
Know about the tie, between NDP and Yukon Party, and NDP winning coin toss. Which meant YP tied with Libs, with latter getting first crack at forming a govt because they were incumbent govt.
Don't know if anyone has commented on the latest INSA poll from Germany:
CDU/CSU 24% (-3) Greens 23% (+1) SPD 17% (+1) FDP 12% (+1) AfD 11% (-1) Linke 8% (-1)
What's your take on Laschet, Stodge? I'm extremely negative, I think Union won't win this time and the CDU will want to stay in opposition if possible rather than be a junior partner to the greens.
Politically, choosing Laschet as Spitzenkandidat is the equivalent of the Conservatives choosing Hunt or Javid rather than Johnson in 2019. Polls showed with Soder as leader, the Union would be back polling in the high 30s and well ahead of the other parties whereas Laschet keeps the CDU in the mid-20s.
Yet I can only think the CDU activists (who out-number the CSU) were not interested in Soder's social conservatism and how it would play beyond Bavaria.
It's analogous to what happened when the Union chose Strauss as their Spitzenkandidat in 1980. The CSU polled well in Bavaria but the CDU suffered elsewhere and the FDP were the big winners leaving the then SPD-FDP Government with an increased majority.
Perhaps the CDU think they need time in opposition to regroup - choosing Laschet seems a good way to achieve that. The Germans seem entirely relaxed about the Greens who, as others have said, now advocate policy positions which are much more amenable to other mainstream parties such as the FDP and SPD.
Why did Johnson recently say that vaccines weren't bringing down cases when that's patently an untrue statement?
"New research shows vaccines, and not lockdowns, are the key to controlling the coronavirus pandemic - but they only reduce "silent infections" by 57%."
Why did Johnson recently say that vaccines weren't bringing down cases when that's patently an untrue statement?
I think there was truth in what he said. The lockdown has played a huge role in reducing the cases, and in recent times the vaccine effect is becoming more significant. Going forward the vaccines should erode the need for restrictions. I would argue we are pretty close to that point now.
The Cabinet Secretary told the PM that the leak was neither me nor the then Director of Communications and that ‘all the evidence definitely leads to Henry Newman and others in that office, I’m just trying to get the communications data to prove it’. The PM was very upset about this.
He said to me afterwards, ‘If Newman is confirmed as the leaker then I will have to fire him, and this will cause me very serious problems with Carrie as they’re best friends … [pause] perhaps we could get the Cabinet Secretary to stop the leak inquiry?”
I told him that this was ‘mad’ and totally unethical, that he had ordered the inquiry himself and authorised the Cabinet Secretary to use more invasive methods than are usually applied to leak inquiries because of the seriousness of the leak. I told him that he could not possibly cancel an inquiry about a leak that affected millions of people, just because it might implicate his girlfriend’s friends.
I refused to try to persuade the Cabinet Secretary to stop the inquiry and instead I encouraged the Cabinet Secretary to conduct the inquiry without any concern for political ramifications. I told the Cabinet Secretary that I would support him regardless of where the inquiry led. I warned some officials that the PM was thinking about cancelling the inquiry. They would give evidence to this effect under oath to any inquiry. I also have WhatsApp messages with very senior officials about this matter which are definitive.
Only a few weeks ago there were tens of thousands of people at cricket stadiums in India, many of them not wearing masks or practising social distancing.
Hubris. We would be wise to beware of it ourselves. As much as I tire of the restrictions, and indeed believe we could just a little faster, we still need to be vigilant.
I think the situation is a reverse of the boy who cried wolf. Johnson has learnt to be cautious when we've finally reached the stage of not needing to be. Farcical.
Personally I am resolved to wait for my vaccine, but the level of vaccination in the country as a whole already removes any public health justification for emergency restrictions on liberty.
I think you are probably right. We are running scared of cases in a population that would most likely have a mild to moderate disease at best, and accumulating evidence that the 33 million who have had at least one dose are incredibly well protected. I think last years breezy optimism has scared and scarred those taking decisions.
Look at Chile, though.
I don't expect another, worse than we've had so far, wave here, but I don't see how the chances of that happening can be lower than 10%. I do a lot of things, like wearing seat belts and life jackets, as a precaution against events which have a less than 0.1% chance of happening...
We still have legal restrictions on whether people can visit our private homes. This is very far removed from seatbelts as a restriction.
It's amazing how much people have ingested these restrictions on our liberty. I found myself today googling can I go to an art gallery before I caught myself in the absurdity of it all.
Kerslake: level of toxicity is extraordinary...very serious indeed...wouldn’t have happened under Theresa May or any previous government. This is bigger than previous scandals...it’s about the whole way government works, does it act with honesty and integrity?
The Cabinet Secretary told the PM that the leak was neither me nor the then Director of Communications and that ‘all the evidence definitely leads to Henry Newman and others in that office, I’m just trying to get the communications data to prove it’. The PM was very upset about this.
He said to me afterwards, ‘If Newman is confirmed as the leaker then I will have to fire him, and this will cause me very serious problems with Carrie as they’re best friends … [pause] perhaps we could get the Cabinet Secretary to stop the leak inquiry?”
I told him that this was ‘mad’ and totally unethical, that he had ordered the inquiry himself and authorised the Cabinet Secretary to use more invasive methods than are usually applied to leak inquiries because of the seriousness of the leak. I told him that he could not possibly cancel an inquiry about a leak that affected millions of people, just because it might implicate his girlfriend’s friends.
I refused to try to persuade the Cabinet Secretary to stop the inquiry and instead I encouraged the Cabinet Secretary to conduct the inquiry without any concern for political ramifications. I told the Cabinet Secretary that I would support him regardless of where the inquiry led. I warned some officials that the PM was thinking about cancelling the inquiry. They would give evidence to this effect under oath to any inquiry. I also have WhatsApp messages with very senior officials about this matter which are definitive.
It might be better if various people in government spent more time on government things and less time playing with their mobile phones.
Comments
Why didn't DC get the sack when he richly deserved it? Because he was at the heart of BJ's cabal. Now they've fallen out, and the flunky is doing a Michael Cohen.
Highly credible, because Cummings was in the belly of the beast.
In the game of last man standing:
Dom v Boris - Boris always to win
Salmond v Sturgeon - Sturgeon always to win.
Boris v Sturgeon - the Championship final still being played.
(Boris v SKS was an early round eliminator - Boris won easily.)
The other cup competition being played is a round robin for Who Blinks First over Ireland; played between Boris, RoI, EU and NI (represented here by the DUP). It's been in extra time for the last year or so.
Bear in mind, though, that you can't have the entire country generating electricity at home from natural gas, because the local gas distribution grid has perhaps a fifth of the capacity that is needed.
Cheers for the tip upthread.
Not sure Everton deserve the win, though!
Personally do NOT think that Queen Anne and Mrs Masham were lovers. But what does the family think?
Certainly the Duchess got her revenge on her rival and her former BFF via her autobiography.
Abby married her daughter to Henry II
Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
The day of Downing Street drama isn’t quite over yet. Watch this space...
And of course, you and early voters like you are NOT impacted by the latest episode of the Downing Street soap opera.
Am NOT saying this enhances Cumming's reputation one whit. Great British Public still thinks he's a turd.
BUT that does NOT mean they think he's lying about Boris Johnson. Just like their ancestors didn't think Sarah Churchill was lying about Queen Anne
The UK's gas grid probably wouldn't be that overstretched if this did catch on (you can actually get combi boilers that also generate electricity when running) - my annual electricity usage is less than 20% of my gas usage, and that's probably pretty typical. Even at 25% efficiency, that's only going to double my gas consumption.
"Caitlyn Jenner, the former Olympic athlete and reality television star, has announced she will be challenging California governor Gavin Newsom in the impending gubernatorial recall election."
That was the easy bit anyway. Clean energy powered flight doesn't exist nor yet is there anything looking even slightly viable on the horizon. Clean energy for space heating existd, but for most of the UK's housing stock it's going to be cripplingly expensive compared to natural gas, as its uses electricity at about 5x the price per KW. Even a heat pump that at 2x efficiency, is double the cost of gas.
The only area where people "win" from clean energy is cars, and that's just a tax arbitrage because of fuel duty. Better have a word with that nice Mr Xi then, cos unless he's feeling helpful , it's going to happen anyway. Good luck...!
With a ground source heat pump my average efficiency over the year since last September is 4.4. So at 12p kwhr that's a bit less than 3p per kW. Plus you get about 10p per kW of heat generated in subsidy for the next 20 tears, which should pay the capital cost nicely. And I didn't have the option of gas, I replaced an oil boiler. Admittedly you need a field or more expensive vertical coils. And if you get the right tariff, electricity is about 5p per kwhr overnight, which is when you use most of it.
Super League?
You're having a laugh.
Lord Lister is leaving his role as the Prime Minister’s envoy for the Gulf.
Was facing scrutiny over private sector work. One of PM’s most trusted advisers in recent years.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/23/exclusive-one-boris-johnsons-closest-advisers-steps-just-months/
CDU/CSU-EPP: 24% (-3)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 17% (+1)
FDP-RE: 12% (+1)
AfD-ID: 11% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 8% (+1)
+/- vs. 20 April 2021
Fieldwork: 23 April 2021
Sample size: 1,000"
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1385679985747374081
https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0423/1211709-us-biden-trip/
Having said that, their economy is big enough to buy calories elsewhere nowadays.
🚨Scoop by @benrileysmith/@HarryYorke1
@ManuMidolo and I recently revealed that Lister was on the payroll of two property developers throughout his time in No 10
And negotiated China embassy deal for UK government whilst paid by both the buyer and seller
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-top-aide-eddie-lister-still-on-payroll-of-two-developers-p0prc3llh https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1385699221408468994
Experts are meeting Friday to examine any connection between the shot and rare reports of blood clots in people who received it.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/23/cdc-panel-j-j-vaccine-decision-484447
Don't know if anyone has commented on the latest INSA poll from Germany:
CDU/CSU 24% (-3)
Greens 23% (+1)
SPD 17% (+1)
FDP 12% (+1)
AfD 11% (-1)
Linke 8% (-1)
I'm sue Alistair Hames is producing trend lines showing the situation is fine.
@bbcnickrobinson
·
2h
It’s easy to see this as just another chapter in “Rats in the Sack - the Rise & Fall of Dominic Cummings”. Easy but wrong. The PM’s former adviser is making very serious allegations about money, leaks & standards in public life
Let's see if that is the case.
Sadly, I suspect the voter reaction is going to be a combination of 'meh', they are all the same, and Boris is funny though isn't he/you'd have a pint with him.
Personally I am resolved to wait for my vaccine, but the level of vaccination in the country as a whole already removes any public health justification for emergency restrictions on liberty.
Unlikely I would have thought.
Seems about right
And if you're tempted to roll your eyes and think it's just sour grapes from a jilted advisor, think again.
Dominic Cummings' blog is proof that he is willing to lift the lid on his time at the heart of Downing Street, regardless of how it reflects on the prime minister.
Beyond his denial of leaking text messages, he has also given his version of events relating to two potential political weak spots for Boris Johnson.
They are the questions over the financing of the renovation of the Downing Street flat and the leaking of a plan to impose a lockdown.
The level of detail shows that Mr Cummings is willing to expose others while defending himself and lay bare the inner workings of No 10.
The problem with doing in on a more widespread basis is that most (a) most people use more joules of electricity than of gas, and (b) electricity demand varies quite a lot with the time of day. So - unless you want Tesla PowerWalls in every home - you're limited by peak demand.
As an aside, banning gas for home heating is utterly retarded. Natural gas is a super efficient way to heat homes.
However, the loser has filed suit.
It helps if you can look at the electoral roll and know everyone on it and whether they still live there.
Or, in this case, fled town 20 years ago as a sex offender.
I don't expect another, worse than we've had so far, wave here, but I don't see how the chances of that happening can be lower than 10%. I do a lot of things, like wearing seat belts and life jackets, as a precaution against events which have a less than 0.1% chance of happening...
But what's the deal re: sex offender?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yukon-news.com/news/pauline-frost-files-legal-challenge-against-vuntut-gwitchin-election-results/amp/
Basically. A guy run out of town decades ago allegedly voted. As did his daughter.
"ISRO
@isro
Visit of H.E. Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister for Europe & Foreign Affairs, Government of Republic of France to ISRO Headquarters & Human Space Flight Centre.
Read more: Details: https://isro.gov.in/update/15-apr-2021/french-minister-has-visited-isro-headquarters-and-hsfc-april-15-2021
@CNES
12:38 pm · 15 Apr 2021"
https://twitter.com/isro/status/1382659496309190657
Hand recount resulted in the challenger (who I was representing) gaining a vote, thus creating a tie.
Under WA state law, ties are settled by flipping a coin, drawing lots or some other random method agreed by the two sides.
In this case was a coin toss - which the incumbent won.
Then about a week later, the incumbent died. At that point, state law directed the (remaining) county commissioners to pick a replacement. Which they did; their choice was NOT the other candidate, who would of course have been elected IF the coin had landed the other way.
The UK vaccine program has made a lot of correct choices but its been lucky that the EU's attempts to sabotage it have been so incompetent and lucky again to get five million AZN from India before India hit crisis.
Yet I can only think the CDU activists (who out-number the CSU) were not interested in Soder's social conservatism and how it would play beyond Bavaria.
It's analogous to what happened when the Union chose Strauss as their Spitzenkandidat in 1980. The CSU polled well in Bavaria but the CDU suffered elsewhere and the FDP were the big winners leaving the then SPD-FDP Government with an increased majority.
Perhaps the CDU think they need time in opposition to regroup - choosing Laschet seems a good way to achieve that. The Germans seem entirely relaxed about the Greens who, as others have said, now advocate policy positions which are much more amenable to other mainstream parties such as the FDP and SPD.
"New research shows vaccines, and not lockdowns, are the key to controlling the coronavirus pandemic - but they only reduce "silent infections" by 57%."
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-key-to-ending-pandemic-but-coronavirus-variants-could-drive-new-surge-in-cases-12284509
He said to me afterwards, ‘If Newman is confirmed as the leaker then I will have to fire him, and this will cause me very serious problems with Carrie as they’re best friends … [pause] perhaps we could get the Cabinet Secretary to stop the leak inquiry?”
I told him that this was ‘mad’ and totally unethical, that he had ordered the inquiry himself and authorised the Cabinet Secretary to use more invasive methods than are usually applied to leak inquiries because of the seriousness of the leak. I told him that he could not possibly cancel an inquiry about a leak that affected millions of people, just because it might implicate his girlfriend’s friends.
I refused to try to persuade the Cabinet Secretary to stop the inquiry and instead I encouraged the Cabinet Secretary to conduct the inquiry without any concern for political ramifications. I told the Cabinet Secretary that I would support him regardless of where the inquiry led. I warned some officials that the PM was thinking about cancelling the inquiry. They would give evidence to this effect under oath to any inquiry. I also have WhatsApp messages with very senior officials about this matter which are definitive.