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American polls may now need to fundamentally change their poll weightings – politicalbetting.com
American polls may now need to fundamentally change their poll weightings – politicalbetting.com
In 2016, poor health strongly predicted Trump voting. A county's rate of diabetes, alcohol consumption, obesity, etc. predicted its propensity to vote Trump *even better* than race/education. https://t.co/ew0d9lUxfr pic.twitter.com/6sHUf2EyYj
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I was involved in a discussion about factors contributing towards voting intention a few days ago, the conclusion of which was that you could probably make a very good prediction (in England at any rate) of which Parliamentary constituencies were likely to go Tory or anti-Tory by plugging three values for each seat into a simple model: the average age of the population, percentage of owner-occupancy, and the proportion of non-White electors.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/contracts-purchasing-agreements.html
There appear to be two issues - blood clot potential problem and US manufacturing screw ups - anyone know where EU/UK's are being manufactured?
I wonder if they'll get sued too?
I still have a pet theory that the current disparity in vaccination status between the age groups could have the result of slightly amplifying the usual differential turnout effect next month. We'll see if anything comes of it.
Averaging 23 reported deaths per day now.
This gets it completely the wrong way around. I am no fan of Obamacare, but it failed in states that did not fund it (GOP states), and hence health outcomes are worse in those states.
Far from being a leading indicator (and hence useful for prediction), I fear this is a lagging indicator, i.e. the prediction is that health outcomes will be worse in GOP states, rather than poor health leads to voting GOP
Biden will attend the G7 Summit in Cornwall, U.K. from June 11-13. He'll then travel to Brussels, Belgium, to participate in the NATO Summit on June 14.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1385614613039837184
German outlet Der Spiegel has released a few pages of the document, which was agreed to by the Premier League's 'Big Six', as well as three clubs from Italy and three from Spain before the controversial announcement last week.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9503959/European-Super-League-contracts-LEAKED-revealing-clubs-pulling-face-130m-fee.html
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1385613746421239811?s=20
CPS: “We have authorised Greater Manchester Police to charge Ryan Giggs with engaging in behaviour which was controlling or coercive and assault occasioning actual bodily harm."
“A charge of assault by beating relating to a second woman has also been authorised. Mr Giggs will appear at Manchester and Salford Magistrates' Court on Wednesday 28th April."
https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1385610396048973826
Looks like Barca and Real doing the same as they did to La Liga, but on a larger scale.
I suggest sentencing TSE to the Piers Punishment - isolation for 6 months in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan and Julian Assange. The only food is pineapple pizza. Radiohead is played on a continuous loop. The only entertainment is one laptop which is locked down - only providing access to Con Home and the Python programming language.
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-benefits-risks-context
1) The extremely low level of COVID (and falling) means that the risk of COVID vs the risk of vaccine are very close.
2) There are enough alternative vaccines available.
In places with a higher rate of COVID, then 1) will not neccasarily be true.
Presumably the Americans didn’t care, because their investments would, they believed, have gone up in value. Why would they care about the clubs being treated worse than Real and Barca?
Also vaccine supply is more constrained.
Basically the risk from either AZN or J&J is very low indeed, and pales into insignificance if using stops an ongoing pandemic.
Biden in Brussels for the EU-US summit on his next trip to Europe in June 2021.
We have much to do together, from climate change to health, from trade and multilateralism to geopolitical challenges.
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1385614997255073794?s=20
Reports say "NATO Summit".......
G'DAY! White smoke Aussie trade talks...
Hearing "consensus reached on main elements of a deal"
With a view to full agreement in June... signed at G7."
When I become UnDictator of Britain.....
Thanks to strong, reliable partners like @Pfizer and @BioNTech_Group, vaccination in the EU is speeding up.
I'm confident we will have enough doses to vaccinate 70% of all EU adults already in July.
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1385562032641134593?s=20
* Ps that is not aimed at you TSE
The argument is that poor health correlates with the individual's tendency to vote for Trump.
But the graph shows that Trump improved on Romney's performance most in counties where average health was poor.
One perfectly plausible explanation for that is that people in counties with poor health including - and perhaps particularly - those who are themselves in GOOD health, were particularly concerned about the costs of Obamacare because they are surrounded by people in poor health who are costly to treat. The individual mandate in Obamacare also isn't necessarily attractive for those in poor health in the sense that getting insurance is more costly.
So those stats could easily reflect the voting impact of Obamacare, which is less salient in 2020, and quite likely to diminish even further as an issue in 2024. They don't necessarily mean "fatties for GOP" in any lasting sense.
Ironic that the EU medics are defending AZ while EU politicians trash it......
That's on Monday, Tuesday and Friday. Rest of the week, I'm self-righteous but NOT arrogant.
Am also obese (or at least fat) and diabetic. Which perhaps explains my occasional conservatism?
Someday he will lose office but I fear your torment may continue for quite some yet
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo visited Pfizer's Belgian factory Friday to brag publicly about the EU's star vaccine producer, BioNTech/Pfizer — just as they get ready to launch legal proceedings against drugmaker AstraZeneca behind closed doors.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-praises-biontech-pfizer-for-boosting-coronavirus-vaccines-deliveries/
Basically Real and Barca wanted to set up a continent-wide version of the SPL. Liverpool would have been Europe's Dundee United.
A while back, due to issues with the Pfizer plant in Europe, no doses were sent to Canada for a whole week. None. Zero.
The Canadian response was to ask, politely, Pfizer what they (Canada) could do to help to speed up resumption of deliveries.
Push a Canadian and they will apologise for it.
Possible that Canada's less-than-stellar vac performance is tipping the scales against PM Justin Trudeau and his Liberal minority government wanting to call or otherwise engineer a general election this year.
These activists just do not understand that to tackle climate change they need to reach the ordinary voter who supports climate change, but when you tell them they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers, then there is little chance of their support
I commented this morning on this and thought Rachel Burden of 5 live was so on the ball with her comments
'Rachel Burden was interviewing a 'green activist' who largely welcomed HMG involvement in the debate but criticised Boris 'bunny hugging' moment
However, Rachel's response was that he was not talking to activists like her, but to those less interested in climate change and that he was making the point it was not about 'bunny huggers' but a real opportunity for investment and jobs for the future
Rachel and Boris seem to understand the red wall voters, far more than the metropolitan elite and climate enthusiasts
Otherwise, she may find herself sitting on the carpet when she & the rest meet with Uncle Joe.
I have no certainty (unlike other posters on here) but I think it likely it will eventually catch up with him. My schadenfreude when his gilded house of cards collapses will be short lived, because we will end up with a Labour government, but I will try and enjoy it as much as possible.
If he does win the next election, well, from a selfish point of view, and in spite of the fact I do not make PPE or vacuum cleaners, more years of a conservative government may suit me just fine.
“they will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars, eat less meat and completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers”
That is what is going to be necessary, though. Moving from the century of oil & gas to a zero-carbon century is going to require serious sacrifices.
May as well be honest about it. People see through the political framing bullshit, and then get angry.
To them a world where the ordinary people will not be able to fly as much, have to buy electric cars (and remain very expensive), eat less meat and completely renovate their homes at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers - that is what they *want*
However, this is offset by some shambolic vaccine distribution and lockdown policies, which are the responsibility of the Provinces.
The Liberals don't control a single major Province. And the two worst, Alberta and Ontario, are run by high profile Tories.
So, I reckon, an early vote is feasible.
https://dominiccummings.com/2021/04/23/statement-regarding-no10-claims-today/
https://dominiccummings.com/2021/04/23/statement-regarding-no10-claims-today/
The Prime Minister’s DOC has also made accusations regarding me and leaks concerning the PM’s renovation of his flat. The PM stopped speaking to me about this matter in 2020 as I told him I thought his plans to have donors secretly pay for the renovation were unethical, foolish, possibly illegal and almost certainly broke the rules on proper disclosure of political donations if conducted in the way he intended. I refused to help him organise these payments. My knowledge about them is therefore limited. I would be happy to tell the Cabinet Secretary or Electoral Commission what I know concerning this matter.
If you want to carry the voters of Detroit with you, you're going to go further talking about investment and jobs than you are bunnies.
The bunny huggers are already onside. The likes of Greta and David Attenborough don't need to be convinced that we need to take action. Its the others you're supposed to be convincing.
I think there's a reason someone so immature and silly as Greta is the one who takes umbrage at it, rather than someone as mature and sensible as David Attenborough.
(ref: https://www.gocomics.com/joelpett/2009/12/13)
We need to focus on the opportunities, not on the hair shirts. And on the more tangible things that are also helpful - look at single use plastics for example and the progress made there; electric cars will detoxify the air in our cities which is a more tangible impact than long term effects on climate change
However, on some of your specifics:
- not be able to fly as much
Well, maybe. Flying should certainly be taxed more in line with its carbon footprint. Flying is too cheap (I say this as someone who tries to use alternatives where they exist - they're almost always more expensive). But the long term solution is either greener aviation fuel or alternatives, e.g. high speed rail for more short haul
- have to buy electric cars
Yes, in due course. But they'll be as cheap to buy, cheaper to run, lower maintenance. There are some things to iron out (charging for people in flats for example) but really switch to electric cars is not a negative.
- eat less meat
Possibly. Also not really a bad thing (in my experience). But there's also more that can be done here on reducing carbon impacts of meat - it'll never ber as efficient as vegetarianism, but no one needs to stop eating meat completely. It's not really something to bang on about, other than maybe the tangible health benefits of going meat free a few days a week, with environmental benfits as a bonus
- completely renovate their home at vast expense to eradicate gas boilers
This is not true. Electric boilers will be drop in retro-fit options for gas boilers. And this will only be done when the existing gas boiler fails. Running costs may be higher, but there won't be a big fitting cost (and it will only replace the gas replacement costs). Newbuilds will - and should - use other systems, direct electric heating, heat pumps etc.
Have to say that the Cummings’ statement is well written and seemingly comprehensive. It confirms he still has prominent allies inside Downing Street and doesn’t present the PM in a good light at all.
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1385627330857553920?s=20
The solution, the only solution that will work is clean technologies.
Saying don't use power will not work. People won't listen to you. Saying "here is some clean and affordable power, use this instead of coal" people will listen to.
Saying don't fly will not work. People won't listen to you. Saying "here is a newly designed clean and affordable plane, use this instead of jet fuel" people will listen to.
Saying "don't eat meat" will not work. People won't listen to you. Full stop, I see no alternative to this one, the line is drawn here. Maybe find a way to offset against it because meat is happening.
...
Those looking for evidence of a dysfunctional regime at No. 10 can find a fair bit in Dom's blog.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1385628924093341697?s=20
Six Extinction Rebellion protesters have been cleared of causing criminal damage, despite jurors being told by the judge there was no defence in law.
With the exception of Mr Saunders - who claimed he honestly believed Shell's employees and shareholders would have consented to the damage he caused
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-56853979
The take away, smashing up a building isn't a criminal offense if you claim you were doing so to save the planet.
No doubt they'll find some other reason instead of carbon that we need to abolish capitalism, stop consumption and basically go back centuries for instead of carbon.
Because its not really about the environment for some people.
@michaelsavage
If you're going to try a dead cat strategy, you should probably check that the cat is, in fact, dead - and preferably not armed.
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1385629114883846150
So does Dominic Cummings, with knobs on.
Both things can be true at the same time.
It's also undeniably a bit amusing that one defendant already pled guilty and then watched his comrades get away with it despite having no defence at all.