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Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility – politicalbetting.com

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2021
    https://order-order.com/2021/04/06/warringtons-labour-party-has-previous-for-anti-gypsy-campaigning/

    This rather emphasizes Labour's problems with working class folk. The lady in question is clearly raising a legitimate issue, those of us that have encountered these particular types of travellers have more than likely had similar experiences...but twitter mob / party get on the pile on about it being raccccccccist.....and a few days later, sorry, so sorry, no i won't raise it again.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964

    Oh dear. Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen went to see Erdogan, but Charles Michel didn't offer the main chair to von der Leyen.

    https://twitter.com/SLagodinsky/status/1379483767161622535

    What a fool. He's the equivalent of the speaker of the house, what got into his head that he should be sitting in the main chair.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Is Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer in...... SECOND CLASS?

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1379515329622245385?s=20

    Admirable if so. However the potentially posh bottle of water might detract

    The middle ground betweens EdM's first class and Jezza dossing by the khazi - ever the centrist

    "I MUST NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF MY PREDECESSORS
    I MUST NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF MY PREDECESSORS
    I MUST NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF MY PREDECESSORS..."

    "Plymouth" is on of my favourite bits of rhyming slang - my friend who sadly passed away this year used it a lot
    Sorry to hear about your pal

    I take it the Plymouth rhyming slang is too ribald to relate?

    I am pretty sure that IS second class. The narrow seats and the configuration. He's right that it's a marvellous bit of British railway routing..... it basically goes in the sea at one point
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    Terrible defence by Liverpool - 2 down
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Terrible defence by Liverpool - 2 down

    Story of the season....abd has that bloke they bought from Peston to plug the gap even played a game?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
    OMG the plot thickens

    WTF? Is this a brilliant photoshop?


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20
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    isamisam Posts: 40,927
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Is Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer in...... SECOND CLASS?

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1379515329622245385?s=20

    Admirable if so. However the potentially posh bottle of water might detract

    The middle ground betweens EdM's first class and Jezza dossing by the khazi - ever the centrist

    "I MUST NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF MY PREDECESSORS
    I MUST NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF MY PREDECESSORS
    I MUST NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF MY PREDECESSORS..."

    "Plymouth" is on of my favourite bits of rhyming slang - my friend who sadly passed away this year used it a lot
    Sorry to hear about your pal

    I take it the Plymouth rhyming slang is too ribald to relate?

    I am pretty sure that IS second class. The narrow seats and the configuration. He's right that it's a marvellous bit of British railway routing..... it basically goes in the sea at one point
    He was the head trader at a major investment bank at LIFFE, on 250k pa by 25, retired by 30, property empire, excellent cricketer, footballer, run the marathon, pulled more women than I have had hot dinners, focal point of about a dozen groups of friends, MCC member, place in the SofF - lifelong depression, and committed suicide at 50 - unbelievable

    Style, btw
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,173
    Leon said:

    Is Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer in...... SECOND CLASS?

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1379515329622245385?s=20

    Admirable if so. However the potentially posh bottle of water might detract

    What a loser! No hi-viz jacket. A very basic fail from Starmer!
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    alex_ said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Tiny bit more info, here

    "A Department of Health spokesman said: "Our vaccination programme continues to make exceptional progress - with over 37 million jabs administered so far.

    ""Vaccine supply was always going to vary over time, but we are on course to offer a first vaccine dose to those aged 50 and over by mid-April, and all adults by the end of July.""

    https://news.sky.com/story/vaccine-rollout-to-be-considerably-slower-until-end-of-july-government-advisers-say-12267668

    In England according to PHE by 01 April there were 6.3 million under 50s who had received a first dose. Spent about 2 mins teasing out some stats but I reckon that’s about a quarter of the under 50s already jabbed.

    I now know so many people in their 30s who have had the first dose for spurious reasons it barely warrants a mention on the whatsapp anymore. Without this I can’t help but think the government could have declared mission accomplished ages ago for the over 50s but have some cunning plan as to why they wanted it delayed.

    Whether it’s to do with supply negotiations or the behavioural scientists I don’t know. Could be as well to build a fire break within the young before the big reopening. Quite significant when added to the circa 30% with acquired immunity (less double counting).
    Using the NIMIS population data, for England, the status, as of 28th March (released 1st April)

    Under 50 23.57%
    50-54 77.76%
    55-59 82.50%
    60-64 86.94%
    65-69 90.45%
    70-74 93.31%
    75-79 94.37%
    80+ 93.85%
    Not a bad back of envelope on my part then! It does mean that the 30s and 40s age groups will be much easier to get done than the pessimists are assuming I think.
    Note that if we take 94% as the ceiling - and the wrinkles numbers have held around there for a while, we have the following number of first jabs to go, as of 28th March.

    Under 50 19,018,567
    50-54 696,822
    55-59 481,350
    60-64 255,465
    65-69 113,234

    OK.

    Twelve weeks til the end of June, in which about 26m further second doses will have to be provided

    Assume new Cabinet Office estimate is correct and we only manage 2.7m per week. That's 32.4m.

    That means we can only get 6.4 million first doses done in the next three months, of which about 1.6m is mopping up the remaining over 50s. That leaves enough leftover first doses to do about 4.8 million people. If we assume that each year cohort is somewhere around 900,000 people, that means we might be able to get down to 45 year olds, perhaps 44 year olds if we're lucky, by the start of July.

    In short, if supply is as crap as has been forecast, then the wheels are therefore going to fall off. Big time.

    Unless the court case is successful then it looks as if our trips to the pub are going to be outdoors only for a very long time. And we can all forget about holidays.
    Relax. Last summer we had much lower acquired immunity and no one vaccinated. And pubs were happily open indoors without it causing much harm until the autumn. We could open up all guns blazing on 21st June with no restrictions and still avoid a public health event, as the vaccination programme slowly but surely does the rest of its work.

    Covid is over in this country as a health event, thankfully. We just have to wait for the government and public to recover from their PTSD.
    Quite. It defies logic to say that a virus which, largely, does not cause serious illness in health people in younger age groups, should cause a serious health crisis just because those age groups aren't vaccinated (although many will have anyway acquired protection through prior infection). Whilst nobody can say for certainty that things won't change it is reasonable to think that the main limiting factor on widespread opening up will not actually be public health risk, but Government caution. But absent obvious evidence of the former the economic and business pressures on the Government to discard caution will be enormous.
    You vastly underestimate the strength of the public health lobby. If businesses were driving this then the Government would - at a minimum - be letting bars and restaurants open indoors. And they would've done it all in time for Easter, not the 12th.

    If the protection of the remaining unvaccinated slows to a crawl then the models will be recomputed and there'll be even more panic about mass hospitalisations on unlocking than there already is. The obvious risk is that the Government then wets itself and puts everything off until later in the Summer. They've been throttling these businesses for the best part of a year, after all - why should a couple more months make any difference?
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,432

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    Wait, so the Cabinet Office produced pessimistic vaccination forecasts to enable SAGE to produce pessimistic models to enable us all to be kept locked down forever? So do we blame the Cabinet Office or SAGE, or both?

    Max, I respect your contributions on vaccine efforts a great deal (and many of your posts in general) but I do think you need to take a deep breath here and think about why. Even if you believe in evil power-crazed scientists, they've already, thanks to Covid, secured massive increases in future funding and the ear of senor politicians whenever they want. Why would they want to prolong lockdown restrictions, which are a real pain in the arse for science and scientists. Trust me, we're all zoomed-out and we want our foreign conferences back!

    I do think (some on) SAGE are worried about the government cocking this up and getting everyone partying in pubs before the vaccination levels are high enough. Possibly too worried, but they'll have a better idea of what the government is thinking, so maybe not... But if they really want another lockdown/longer restrictions then the most effective way to do it would be to engineer another wave by opening up too fast. Pessimistic models can buy weeks to a month or two before they're ovetaken by reality, another wave could get us months of lovely lockdowns with Whitty and co on the tellybox.
    I just have completely lost any trust in SAGE and the government scientists. They churn out incorrect model after incorrect model and continue to expect the people to (literally) live and die by them. There is no peer review process, none of them are made properly public, we're essentially just told to "trust the process" and even after they're proved to be hopelessly pessimistic they keep using the same broken models to churn out yet more garbage.

    I could understand using models that weren't properly up to date when this all started, it's not something we're going to be prepared for. We're now over a year into the pandemic and yet the same government advisors are still using barely modified versions of the same models that didn't work very well the first time around. I either have to put that down to basic incompetence or some purposeful misdirection by the scientists to continue keeping the population under lock and key. The first actually seems less likely than the second scenario.

    Like the government there is a complete lack of scrutiny of the scientific advice that is going into the decision making process. They've had a year to open everything up and yet we're still basically just left hoping that either the model leaks or they decide to release it.
    @MaxPB, I was going to say what @Selebian said, but he said it first and better.

    Can I beg you to consider the following piece of meta-advice: it's difficult for any of us to make good predictions when we are angry. Take some time, and come back to it from first principles in a couple of weeks.

    I share some of your concerns about the models but I see this as a reflection of poor rigor (sorry @Selebian!) in epidemiology in general rather than particular defects in this work. I think it's fair to say that the SPI-M process is that the various research groups do the modelling, and then the committee functions as a kind of peer review.

    --AS
    It boils down to trust, AS, I don't trust the government scientists to mark their own homework as you are suggesting the process is. At work I don't mark my own homework, all PRs need to be reviewed before merging.

    For the whole year their agenda has been to lock everyone up. Time and again they have pushed data modelling that doesn't stand up to scrutiny to justify locking everyone up forever.

    The government has linked unlockdown to hospitalisations and suddenly these scientists have a shiny new model that shows that unlockdown will result in some unrealistic number based on data inputs that are simply false.

    Maybe I'm giving them too much credit and it is just basic incompetence, however modelling hospitalisations from the known data on our two main vaccines and mode of dosage is not very difficult because we know what the current rate of hospitalisation is by age group and we know the cumulative reduction on the hospitalisation rate with one or two doses of either vaccine and we know how big the pool of unvaccinated people and by how much it will go down and to what extent rhe cumulative rate of hospitalisation reduction will be based on the vaccine programme. I'm a data person and I do it for a living, I can instantly see that they've produced a GIGO model intended to get headlines.
    But isn't it the case that there is not one model being used.

    Rather there are numerous, independent groups providing the models and data to SAGE and government which provides the wide range of likely outcomes from the various models.

    The peer review is essentially being done by having so many models and using commonalities in those outcomes.
    Not especially good over a year into the pandemic. These shouldn't exactly be secrets.

    The science and models should be put online and people should be able to review it.
    Trouble is, there's a lot we don't know about the UK's vaccine strategy, especially in terms of how much of what is expected when.

    The E******* U****, for example, have been a lot more open, which has upsides and downsides. But we do know that their plan is mainly about Pfizer and J+J going forward, with AZ as something of a side order.

    However, if it turned out that AZ planned to have delivered tens of millions more doses than they have to the UK, that they still finding it hard to scale up production significantly and that's now causing problems for the UK's AZ-heavy, Just-in-Time vaccination model, it wouldn't be a shock, would it?
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    Leon said:

    OMG the plot thickens

    WTF? Is this a brilliant photoshop?


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20

    Something is not right with those two photos
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
    edited April 2021
    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280
    Leon said:

    Pretty grim stats for the developing world.

    Looking at that FT graph the true horror show is in countries we have not considered. Egypt, Azerbaijan, Peru.....
    Its why we need to support Covax as much and as soon as we can. So many countries who can't afford to borrow to cover the consequences are just unable to vaccinate because the west in particular and the developed world in general has seized the vaccines for itself. Don't get me wrong, I really, really want my vaccine right now but there is something immoral about this.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,739
    edited April 2021
    I've been reading the Iain Dale edited book on The Prime Ministers, essays on all 55 of them, and I must say I've been struck by a few things.

    One, everyone should get on well with their uncles, as rich or influential uncles seem to have been the key to a great many PMs, at least in the early days.

    Two, most PMs seem to arrive in the job too late, their best days behind them.

    Three - Andrew Adonis for Blair and Adam Boulton for Cameron seem like curious choices for essay authors out of whoever could be chosen.

    Four - Dale is either not a good editor or did not employ good proof readers, as there's quite a few spelling errors, repetition and internal inconsistencies in the essays, in the earlier half at least.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147

    Leon said:

    OMG the plot thickens

    WTF? Is this a brilliant photoshop?


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20

    Something is not right with those two photos
    His hair hasn't moved in 9 months. That's.... odd
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    Evening all :)

    Fascinating piece by @Quincel for which many thanks.

    I bet on the horses rather than politics and I try to follow the old adage of winning little and often. Many moons ago, I was a member at Lingfield and used to attend almost every meeting on the old Equitrack. After a while, you got to "know" how a race would go and betting became increasingly profitable on that basis. Then they changed to Polytrack and the betting book was thrown out of the window.

    Perhaps the lesson is if conditions change radically, be prepared to abandon previously-successful strategies as they will no longer work. I wonder if the football "system" @Quincel mentions has worked so well in recent times when it appears to this observer the absence of home crowds has helped away teams.

    As for the US election, I bet strongly on Biden to win PA after I heard the results on Wednesday morning. Someone had posted a tweet on here saying Trump needed to be 16 points ahead on polling day voting to counteract the pro-Biden bias in postal ballots. When I saw Trump up by 14, I thought Biden would win PA and bet accordingly. I should have been braver and gone on him to win GA as the polling day figures were similarly obvious.

    The obvious thing is not to play every market or bet on every race. Yes, a 10/1 winner in a Group 1 pays the same as a 10/1 winner in a seller but I find, without wanting to appear too snobbish, the better the race the easier it is to read.

    The one habit I had to get out of was refusing to bet odds-on - value is value and if a horse you think should be 1/3 is 4/5 that's value. That said, I made money on Dubai World Cup night without backing a winner - three placed horses at 16/1, 20/1 and 40/1.

    I don't have an answer and I suspect if I did I wouldn't blurt it out on here. I do think a successful punter/gambler needs to be selective, do as much research as possible and be prepared not to play or walk away if there's no value. I've seen pro punters go for an afternoon's racing and not have a single bet - they are there to watch certain horses or riders to improve their knowledge and intelligence for future races.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,610

    Leon said:

    OMG the plot thickens

    WTF? Is this a brilliant photoshop?


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20

    Something is not right with those two photos
    Well on twitter it is this one:

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1379515329622245385?s=19

    Incidentally the water bottle is a reusable one, so not expensive if reused.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,927

    Leon said:

    OMG the plot thickens

    WTF? Is this a brilliant photoshop?


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20

    Something is not right with those two photos
    Longer hair in the later one, and no bottle of water

    Great game of Spot the Difference! Maybe he's not so boring!!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058
    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/06/warringtons-labour-party-has-previous-for-anti-gypsy-campaigning/

    This rather emphasizes Labour's problems with working class folk. The lady in question is clearly raising a legitimate issue, those of us that have encountered these particular types of travellers have more than likely had similar experiences...but twitter mob / party get on the pile on about it being raccccccccist.....and a few days later, sorry, so sorry, no i won't raise it again.

    The actions of much of the travelling "community" should be and is illegal. Nasty, dirty, selfish trespassing - and there's nothing racial about it, it needs to be said.

    Doesn't mean all travellers are, but the ones who follow the rules are presumably those who don't illegally trespass on others land.

    If you're not willing to call out lawbreakers how are you supposed to deal with the problem? 🤔
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OMG the plot thickens

    WTF? Is this a brilliant photoshop?


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20

    Something is not right with those two photos
    His hair hasn't moved in 9 months. That's.... odd
    Gordon Brittas hair never shifted an inch even when the leisure centre was burning down....
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Is Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer in...... SECOND CLASS?

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1379515329622245385?s=20

    Admirable if so. However the potentially posh bottle of water might detract

    The middle ground betweens EdM's first class and Jezza dossing by the khazi - ever the centrist

    "I MUST NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF MY PREDECESSORS
    I MUST NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF MY PREDECESSORS
    I MUST NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF MY PREDECESSORS..."

    "Plymouth" is on of my favourite bits of rhyming slang - my friend who sadly passed away this year used it a lot
    Sorry to hear about your pal

    I take it the Plymouth rhyming slang is too ribald to relate?

    I am pretty sure that IS second class. The narrow seats and the configuration. He's right that it's a marvellous bit of British railway routing..... it basically goes in the sea at one point
    He was the head trader at a major investment bank at LIFFE, on 250k pa by 25, retired by 30, property empire, excellent cricketer, footballer, run the marathon, pulled more women than I have had hot dinners, focal point of about a dozen groups of friends, MCC member, place in the SofF - lifelong depression, and committed suicide at 50 - unbelievable

    Style, btw
    Depression hits the strangest people. cf Anthony Bourdain. Had it all. Suicide.

    RIP
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Tiny bit more info, here

    "A Department of Health spokesman said: "Our vaccination programme continues to make exceptional progress - with over 37 million jabs administered so far.

    ""Vaccine supply was always going to vary over time, but we are on course to offer a first vaccine dose to those aged 50 and over by mid-April, and all adults by the end of July.""

    https://news.sky.com/story/vaccine-rollout-to-be-considerably-slower-until-end-of-july-government-advisers-say-12267668

    In England according to PHE by 01 April there were 6.3 million under 50s who had received a first dose. Spent about 2 mins teasing out some stats but I reckon that’s about a quarter of the under 50s already jabbed.

    I now know so many people in their 30s who have had the first dose for spurious reasons it barely warrants a mention on the whatsapp anymore. Without this I can’t help but think the government could have declared mission accomplished ages ago for the over 50s but have some cunning plan as to why they wanted it delayed.

    Whether it’s to do with supply negotiations or the behavioural scientists I don’t know. Could be as well to build a fire break within the young before the big reopening. Quite significant when added to the circa 30% with acquired immunity (less double counting).
    Using the NIMIS population data, for England, the status, as of 28th March (released 1st April)

    Under 50 23.57%
    50-54 77.76%
    55-59 82.50%
    60-64 86.94%
    65-69 90.45%
    70-74 93.31%
    75-79 94.37%
    80+ 93.85%
    Not a bad back of envelope on my part then! It does mean that the 30s and 40s age groups will be much easier to get done than the pessimists are assuming I think.
    Note that if we take 94% as the ceiling - and the wrinkles numbers have held around there for a while, we have the following number of first jabs to go, as of 28th March.

    Under 50 19,018,567
    50-54 696,822
    55-59 481,350
    60-64 255,465
    65-69 113,234

    OK.

    Twelve weeks til the end of June, in which about 26m further second doses will have to be provided

    Assume new Cabinet Office estimate is correct and we only manage 2.7m per week. That's 32.4m.

    That means we can only get 6.4 million first doses done in the next three months, of which about 1.6m is mopping up the remaining over 50s. That leaves enough leftover first doses to do about 4.8 million people. If we assume that each year cohort is somewhere around 900,000 people, that means we might be able to get down to 45 year olds, perhaps 44 year olds if we're lucky, by the start of July.

    In short, if supply is as crap as has been forecast, then the wheels are therefore going to fall off. Big time.

    Unless the court case is successful then it looks as if our trips to the pub are going to be outdoors only for a very long time. And we can all forget about holidays.
    AIUI the *possible* squeeze is only for April. Moderna and Novavax are coming for two.
    I just think it is time for everyone to calm down a little and maybe less speculation, especially based on the useless media reporting, will benefit the health of the nation quite considerably
    No you are totally wrong,when they announce what they are doing its too late to oppose it the tories need to be told to fuck off right now. Or at least the ones that think internal vaxports are a good idea
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    OMG the plot thickens

    WTF? Is this a brilliant photoshop?


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20

    Looks to me like the first one was a spur of the moment thing, then they decided it looked nice and tidied it up (and used a filter/some setting on the camera) to make it look nicer.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,610

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854

    Terrible defence by Liverpool - 2 down

    Could be worse - they could be Huddersfield.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    This is hilarious. I cannot work out which is more embarrassing, either they pretended these were two different journeys (why??) or his social media team is at such a loss with such a boring candidate they did almost exactly the same tweet with the same shirt, mask, hair, view, weather, seat, train, journey, route, laptop but slightly different wording and thought "What can you do, just put it out there"
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
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    guybrushguybrush Posts: 237

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    1st doses for England - new estimate -

    April 1 million (Remaining over 50s)
    May 3 million (40 - 49)
    June 5.9 million (30 - 39)
    July 7.25 million (18 - 30)

    General message for anyone under 50: if you can find any reason to have yourself promoted out of your age category then do it, or you'll be waiting a bloody long time - albeit that you may need to be prepared to do some chasing about. Through keeping myself informed, I found out last week about a little-heralded change in the rules that got me moved from cohort 10 to cohort 6, but (a) I had to ring the GP surgery and explain to them what the new rules were, and (b) I am still waiting for my vaccine appointment, so will have to start ringing them up and pestering them for it again if I've had no further contact from them by the start of next week.
    Can you point me in the direction of the change in rules to which you refer?
    The latest notification concerns adults living with other adults who are immunosuppressed. Turns out that NHS England sent directions out on 31 March, the details are here:

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/publication/vaccination-of-adult-household-contacts-of-severely-immunosuppressed-individuals-alongside-jcvi-priority-cohort-6-and-completion-of-cohorts-1-9/

    I doubt there are that many of us but this might be useful to a few people.

    For reasons previously explained I'm not entirely confident of the efficiency of my GP surgery, but I'm now hoping that I'll at least be waiting weeks rather than until about 2087.
    moonshine said:

    This is nonsense. See my message above. I know so many people in their 30s who have been added to Cat 6 in just the last few weeks it’s become more a case of “what sucker left on this whatsapp group still hasn’t been jabbed”.

    Whatever. I don't know anyone who's managed to escape their age group apart from shielders.
    Brilliant stuff, thank you.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,610
    stodge said:

    Terrible defence by Liverpool - 2 down

    Could be worse - they could be Huddersfield.
    Norwich are an exciting team to watch, but do need to spend a little money when they go up, or it will be a repeat of last season. I remember when it was Leicester and West Brom who were the yoyo teams.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    All you'd want now is to see him eating a bacon sandwich and you'd be set for life.

    To be fair to Starmer, it is a beautiful journey especially the section from Exeter to Dawlish and he's got the best seat - on the left of course - of the carriage. I must confess it's a journey I've done many times and the very best seat in the house is in the dining car as they do second sitting after Exeter for those passengers travelling down into Cornwall.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,986
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    OMG the plot thickens

    WTF? Is this a brilliant photoshop?


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20

    Something is not right with those two photos
    Well on twitter it is this one:

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1379515329622245385?s=19

    Incidentally the water bottle is a reusable one, so not expensive if reused.
    He's not sitting on the floor, so it has to be a Photoshop job.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2021
    I would hate to be a politician...even the simplest photo, got to do one for twitter, Facebook, Instagram, snapchat, tiktok,...and got to avoid all the faux pas, no 1st class, no single use coffee cup or water bottle, no members of the public in it that has ever written a dodgy post on social media ever...

    And with covid, now the masks, the social distancing, the rule of 6, no gay bashing churches as the backdrop...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,986
    That's a monumentally stupid chart.

    If your economy dropped 20% in 2020 due to Covid, and then rebounded 10% in 2021, you'd be top of the class.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    Foxy said:


    Norwich are an exciting team to watch, but do need to spend a little money when they go up, or it will be a repeat of last season. I remember when it was Leicester and West Brom who were the yoyo teams.

    They are still defensively frail and give away silly goals. They also squander too many chances - they won't anywhere near the number in the Premier League and have to make them all count.

    They are one of perhaps 10-12 teams who aren't good enough for the Premiership but too good for the Championship. The top of that pack currently is probably West ham who are at the height of their form but could be in a relegation dogfight this time next year - you never know.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964
    rcs1000 said:

    That's a monumentally stupid chart.

    If your economy dropped 20% in 2020 due to Covid, and then rebounded 10% in 2021, you'd be top of the class.
    Would it? The comparison is in 2024 against a pre-COVID forecast.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
    Yeah, one is a little after the other. As I said earlier, I guess they took one, thought it was pretty nice, and decided to tidy the place up for a second one. No grand conspiracy.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,986
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That's a monumentally stupid chart.

    If your economy dropped 20% in 2020 due to Covid, and then rebounded 10% in 2021, you'd be top of the class.
    Would it? The comparison is in 2024 against a pre-COVID forecast.
    I thought it was comparing 2024 growth expectations now, relative to 2024 growth expectations then: so, the worse you perform now the more catch-up there is.

    Of course, I could be completely wrong.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    That's a monumentally stupid chart.

    If your economy dropped 20% in 2020 due to Covid, and then rebounded 10% in 2021, you'd be top of the class.
    No, it's a net 2024 now versus 2024 then comparison.

    Which is still monumentally stupid because their projections four years out are not worth much let alone assuming that current projections are any good.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147

    I would hate to be a politician...even the simplest photo, got to do one for twitter, Facebook, Instagram, snapchat, tiktok,...and got to avoid all the faux pas, no 1st class, no single use coffee cup or water bottle, no members of the public in it that has ever written a dodgy post on social media ever...

    And with covid, now the masks, the social distancing, the rule of 6, no gay bashing churches as the backdrop...

    I've no idea what Starmer is doing with these clearly identical photos from the same journey, but actually I agree with you.

    Look at the bile he receives under his tweet. Just a wall of hatred and scorn.

    I find Starmer quite wearisome and woke but he is obviously a well-meaning, intelligent man, does he deserve this utter contempt?

    Who would be a politician in the age of the internet. Just not worth it
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,986

    rcs1000 said:

    That's a monumentally stupid chart.

    If your economy dropped 20% in 2020 due to Covid, and then rebounded 10% in 2021, you'd be top of the class.
    No, it's a net 2024 now versus 2024 then comparison.

    Which is still monumentally stupid because their comparisons four years out are not worth much let alone assuming that current projections are any good.
    Well yes - who knows what awaits the word in the next few years.
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    UK in similar position to Italy/Spain/US - but current trends, possibly better:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1379499695395995649?s=20

    The UK is no longer in the Premier League and is only going to fall down the table from now.
    I was going to say hopefully we'll be in the relegation zone soon. But, upon reflection, that would be an awful thing to wish on others. So, hopefully we'll stay exactly where we are - and so will everyone else. i.e. no more deaths anywhere. A dream, I know.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    I would hate to be a politician...even the simplest photo, got to do one for twitter, Facebook, Instagram, snapchat, tiktok,...and got to avoid all the faux pas, no 1st class, no single use coffee cup or water bottle, no members of the public in it that has ever written a dodgy post on social media ever...

    And with covid, now the masks, the social distancing, the rule of 6, no gay bashing churches as the backdrop...

    I've no idea what Starmer is doing with these clearly identical photos from the same journey, but actually I agree with you.

    Look at the bile he receives under his tweet. Just a wall of hatred and scorn.

    I find Starmer quite wearisome and woke but he is obviously a well-meaning, intelligent man, does he deserve this utter contempt?

    Who would be a politician in the age of the internet. Just not worth it
    Not for 75k a year it isn't...either you can't earn that kind of money elsewhere or you have so much you don't have to ever care about money.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
    Yeah, one is a little after the other. As I said earlier, I guess they took one, thought it was pretty nice, and decided to tidy the place up for a second one. No grand conspiracy.
    What? But one is meant to be from summer 2020 and the other is meant to be now?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,927
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    I would hate to be a politician...even the simplest photo, got to do one for twitter, Facebook, Instagram, snapchat, tiktok,...and got to avoid all the faux pas, no 1st class, no single use coffee cup or water bottle, no members of the public in it that has ever written a dodgy post on social media ever...

    And with covid, now the masks, the social distancing, the rule of 6, no gay bashing churches as the backdrop...

    I've no idea what Starmer is doing with these clearly identical photos from the same journey, but actually I agree with you.

    Look at the bile he receives under his tweet. Just a wall of hatred and scorn.

    I find Starmer quite wearisome and woke but he is obviously a well-meaning, intelligent man, does he deserve this utter contempt?

    Who would be a politician in the age of the internet. Just not worth it
    I dont think they were taken on the same day, his hair seems quite a bit longer in one of them doesnt it? He loves a white shirt doesnt he? I thought they were only to be worn the day you got back from holiday!!

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I would hate to be a politician...even the simplest photo, got to do one for twitter, Facebook, Instagram, snapchat, tiktok,...and got to avoid all the faux pas, no 1st class, no single use coffee cup or water bottle, no members of the public in it that has ever written a dodgy post on social media ever...

    And with covid, now the masks, the social distancing, the rule of 6, no gay bashing churches as the backdrop...

    I've no idea what Starmer is doing with these clearly identical photos from the same journey, but actually I agree with you.

    Look at the bile he receives under his tweet. Just a wall of hatred and scorn.

    I find Starmer quite wearisome and woke but he is obviously a well-meaning, intelligent man, does he deserve this utter contempt?

    Who would be a politician in the age of the internet. Just not worth it
    I dont think they were taken on the same day, his hair seems quite a bit longer in one of them doesnt it?

    It's really quite odd. They are meant to be nine months apart
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
    Yeah, one is a little after the other. As I said earlier, I guess they took one, thought it was pretty nice, and decided to tidy the place up for a second one. No grand conspiracy.
    On that stretch, you have to make sure you're not in one of those short tunnels when taking the photos.

    I know a part of that stretch fell into the sea a few years back. I have not done the trip to Plymouth since it was fixed. Does it still follow pretty much the same route as before?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,610
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
    Yeah, one is a little after the other. As I said earlier, I guess they took one, thought it was pretty nice, and decided to tidy the place up for a second one. No grand conspiracy.
    One was tweeted last summer!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
    Yeah, one is a little after the other. As I said earlier, I guess they took one, thought it was pretty nice, and decided to tidy the place up for a second one. No grand conspiracy.
    On that stretch, you have to make sure you're not in one of those short tunnels when taking the photos.

    I know a part of that stretch fell into the sea a few years back. I have not done the trip to Plymouth since it was fixed. Does it still follow pretty much the same route as before?
    Yes. It's a magnificent stretch of railway. Keeps getting demolished by storms and they threaten to move it

    Sir Kir obviously loves it. Especially that one bit before Dawlish where he sits in the same seat and stares at the same clouds in the same way if he possibly can every nine months
  • Options
    Does anyone know how to fix the vanilla bug, where it says that the comment body is (some number of) characters too long, regardless of actual length? I was trying to post a reply to Max above, but it won't let me.

    --AS
  • Options
    Liverpool have an away goal
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    I would hate to be a politician...even the simplest photo, got to do one for twitter, Facebook, Instagram, snapchat, tiktok,...and got to avoid all the faux pas, no 1st class, no single use coffee cup or water bottle, no members of the public in it that has ever written a dodgy post on social media ever...

    And with covid, now the masks, the social distancing, the rule of 6, no gay bashing churches as the backdrop...

    I've no idea what Starmer is doing with these clearly identical photos from the same journey, but actually I agree with you.

    Look at the bile he receives under his tweet. Just a wall of hatred and scorn.

    I find Starmer quite wearisome and woke but he is obviously a well-meaning, intelligent man, does he deserve this utter contempt?

    Who would be a politician in the age of the internet. Just not worth it
    The best at playing against the social media hate is James Blunt. But obviously he ain't a politician and he doesn't need reddies or a job.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    Paging @Sunil_Prasannan!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
    Yeah, one is a little after the other. As I said earlier, I guess they took one, thought it was pretty nice, and decided to tidy the place up for a second one. No grand conspiracy.
    On that stretch, you have to make sure you're not in one of those short tunnels when taking the photos.

    I know a part of that stretch fell into the sea a few years back. I have not done the trip to Plymouth since it was fixed. Does it still follow pretty much the same route as before?
    Yes. It's a magnificent stretch of railway. Keeps getting demolished by storms and they threaten to move it

    Sir Kir obviously loves it. Especially that one bit before Dawlish where he sits in the same seat and stares at the same clouds in the same way if he possibly can every nine months
    Maybe he is a secret time traveller, but he is so indecisive, even when he gets a do over, he still fence sits over decisions.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,418

    Oh dear. Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen went to see Erdogan, but Charles Michel didn't offer the main chair to von der Leyen.

    https://twitter.com/SLagodinsky/status/1379483767161622535

    I'm not sure what the issue is here? She has a seat, on the couch. They're socially distancing.

    There's one seniority seat by the flag and Michel took that, leaving the couch for VDL. Who is the actual President of the EU - Michel or von der Leyen? The EU don't seem to have actually answered that question or officially confirmed who has seniority have they?

    Though the EU's website does say that Michel represents the EU externally on foreign and security issues so it seems reasonable he's the one by the flag?

    https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/presidents_en
    From the little I've seen of him he seems like a massive prat.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I would hate to be a politician...even the simplest photo, got to do one for twitter, Facebook, Instagram, snapchat, tiktok,...and got to avoid all the faux pas, no 1st class, no single use coffee cup or water bottle, no members of the public in it that has ever written a dodgy post on social media ever...

    And with covid, now the masks, the social distancing, the rule of 6, no gay bashing churches as the backdrop...

    I've no idea what Starmer is doing with these clearly identical photos from the same journey, but actually I agree with you.

    Look at the bile he receives under his tweet. Just a wall of hatred and scorn.

    I find Starmer quite wearisome and woke but he is obviously a well-meaning, intelligent man, does he deserve this utter contempt?

    Who would be a politician in the age of the internet. Just not worth it
    I dont think they were taken on the same day, his hair seems quite a bit longer in one of them doesnt it?

    It's really quite odd. They are meant to be nine months apart
    The seat numbers are different as well. I'm sure they are two different trips, but Starmer's not a very adventurous person so he always looks the same and does the same things.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
    Provided he actually made that journey today, it doesn't seem too unreasonable to me that everything looks the same. He'd be wearing what he usually wears, sitting where he usually sits, with the stuff around him he always takes.

    Any time I take a journey of any length, I'd probably look exactly the same as on the other journeys. I have a travel routine.

    So why bother to photoshop what it would be easier to reshoot? It's a lovely view, a good bit of England. Can bear repeating whenever you do that journey, and it's easy to get set up at the right time.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    edited April 2021
    Good question - but I'm not feeling compelled to leap to any of their defences......

    https://twitter.com/sarah_stook/status/1379497745229168643?s=20

    Edit - in defence of Hunky Dunky, I knew him vaguely at Uni and while he was never "out" he never paraded "girlfriends" either - which in the mid-seventies was moderately brave for a Tory (or anyone, for that matter - Mandelson didn't do "girlfriends" either).
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,185
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I would hate to be a politician...even the simplest photo, got to do one for twitter, Facebook, Instagram, snapchat, tiktok,...and got to avoid all the faux pas, no 1st class, no single use coffee cup or water bottle, no members of the public in it that has ever written a dodgy post on social media ever...

    And with covid, now the masks, the social distancing, the rule of 6, no gay bashing churches as the backdrop...

    I've no idea what Starmer is doing with these clearly identical photos from the same journey, but actually I agree with you.

    Look at the bile he receives under his tweet. Just a wall of hatred and scorn.

    I find Starmer quite wearisome and woke but he is obviously a well-meaning, intelligent man, does he deserve this utter contempt?

    Who would be a politician in the age of the internet. Just not worth it
    I dont think they were taken on the same day, his hair seems quite a bit longer in one of them doesnt it?

    It's really quite odd. They are meant to be nine months apart
    The seat numbers are different as well. I'm sure they are two different trips, but Starmer's not a very adventurous person so he always looks the same and does the same things.
    The hair is way longer in one of the photos than the other too. I suspect he’s a bit like me wrt to dress sense - find your style and stick with it. Hence shorts today in a snowstorm...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2021
    Starmer is trying to repeat the carefully crafted stuff of Blair and Cameron, but I don't think the public buy it like they did and besides Boris is just the king kong of the photo op, it makes people laugh, even if it is often carefully crafted like a Top Gear episode.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
    I HAVE NOW SOLVED DAWLISHGATE


    If you look closely, at the seat numbers, he is in different seats. One is 26 or 28, the other 66 or whatever

    So, clearly, his media team thought this tweet

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20


    was so phenomenally successful (and it did get 10k likes) they tried to recreate it in almost every way - mask, shirt, view, clouds, stance, laptop, wording - tho they added spectacles and reusable water bottle, and a pen, to get the Green vote, and more sympathy, and the votes of people who like pens


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1379515329622245385?s=20


    Possibly the most Brittasy thing he has done yet
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,610
    The idea that India had got to herd immunity a couple of months back looks increasingly off.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1379522519129014273?s=19

    Though I do wonder how it faded away so much. I don't think India does social distancing.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
    Yeah, one is a little after the other. As I said earlier, I guess they took one, thought it was pretty nice, and decided to tidy the place up for a second one. No grand conspiracy.
    On that stretch, you have to make sure you're not in one of those short tunnels when taking the photos.

    I know a part of that stretch fell into the sea a few years back. I have not done the trip to Plymouth since it was fixed. Does it still follow pretty much the same route as before?
    Exactly the same.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Oh dear. Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen went to see Erdogan, but Charles Michel didn't offer the main chair to von der Leyen.

    https://twitter.com/SLagodinsky/status/1379483767161622535

    What a fool. He's the equivalent of the speaker of the house, what got into his head that he should be sitting in the main chair.
    Is he Speaker equivalent? He's president of the Council I thought, that's not even part of their Parliament. The EU website says he is President for dealing with foreign affairs, not VDL, though VDL does seem to do a lot of the legwork in general.

    They should probably sort out their titles and figure out who is where in seniority so this kind of commotion doesn't occur.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    Norwich are an exciting team to watch, but do need to spend a little money when they go up, or it will be a repeat of last season. I remember when it was Leicester and West Brom who were the yoyo teams.

    They are still defensively frail and give away silly goals. They also squander too many chances - they won't anywhere near the number in the Premier League and have to make them all count.

    They are one of perhaps 10-12 teams who aren't good enough for the Premiership but too good for the Championship. The top of that pack currently is probably West ham who are at the height of their form but could be in a relegation dogfight this time next year - you never know.
    A Premier League of two divisions, perhaps of 16 teams each, would make a great deal of sense. Make the transition between the top and second tier less extreme, and get more of the fallen giants involved again.

    The Championship's a decent product (the fifth-best supported division in Europe IIRC.) The remainder of the Football League is mediocre at best. Might be an idea to get all the good quality stuff under one roof?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    I don't know if people have been following it, but the new champions League format is absolutely stupid...they just need to get on and have a European super League, as clearly thats what they want.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,418

    Good question - but I'm not feeling compelled to leap to any of their defences......

    https://twitter.com/sarah_stook/status/1379497745229168643?s=20

    Edit - in defence of Hunky Dunky, I knew him vaguely at Uni and while he was never "out" he never paraded "girlfriends" either - which in the mid-seventies was moderately brave for a Tory (or anyone, for that matter - Mandelson didn't do "girlfriends" either).

    Andrea Leadsom comes out of that quite well. Despicable isn't really a criticism - it's a moral judgement based on differences of opinion.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    All you'd want now is to see him eating a bacon sandwich and you'd be set for life.

    To be fair to Starmer, it is a beautiful journey especially the section from Exeter to Dawlish and he's got the best seat - on the left of course - of the carriage. I must confess it's a journey I've done many times and the very best seat in the house is in the dining car as they do second sitting after Exeter for those passengers travelling down into Cornwall.
    That dining car is one of the great things missed during the pandemic. You meet the most fascinating people on it. Last time I used it I was sat next to the lady who made the LNER Peppercorn Class A1 60163 Tornado happen.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,291
    edited April 2021
    Real 3 Liverpool 1
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    Leon said:

    I HAVE NOW SOLVED DAWLISHGATE


    If you look closely, at the seat numbers, he is in different seats. One is 26 or 28, the other 66 or whatever

    So, clearly, his media team thought this tweet

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20


    was so phenomenally successful (and it did get 10k likes) they tried to recreate it in almost every way - mask, shirt, view, clouds, stance, laptop, wording - tho they added spectacles and reusable water bottle, and a pen, to get the Green vote, and more sympathy, and the votes of people who like pens


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1379515329622245385?s=20


    Possibly the most Brittasy thing he has done yet

    Surely to truly chase the green vote he should be drinking his own urine as water apparently is an increasing scarcity
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,610

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    Norwich are an exciting team to watch, but do need to spend a little money when they go up, or it will be a repeat of last season. I remember when it was Leicester and West Brom who were the yoyo teams.

    They are still defensively frail and give away silly goals. They also squander too many chances - they won't anywhere near the number in the Premier League and have to make them all count.

    They are one of perhaps 10-12 teams who aren't good enough for the Premiership but too good for the Championship. The top of that pack currently is probably West ham who are at the height of their form but could be in a relegation dogfight this time next year - you never know.
    A Premier League of two divisions, perhaps of 16 teams each, would make a great deal of sense. Make the transition between the top and second tier less extreme, and get more of the fallen giants involved again.

    The Championship's a decent product (the fifth-best supported division in Europe IIRC.) The remainder of the Football League is mediocre at best. Might be an idea to get all the good quality stuff under one roof?
    Teams go up and down. A decade ago I was watching Leicester in League 1, and was pleasantly surprised by the quality of football. I rather enjoyed that season, and it broke us of our losing mentality, and back into a winning one.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Real 3 Liverpool 1

    FFS. We're going to need to get into the Top 4 aren't we? Or have no Europe next season.

    Damnit.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,418
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE NOW SOLVED DAWLISHGATE


    If you look closely, at the seat numbers, he is in different seats. One is 26 or 28, the other 66 or whatever

    So, clearly, his media team thought this tweet

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1288421282757959681?s=20


    was so phenomenally successful (and it did get 10k likes) they tried to recreate it in almost every way - mask, shirt, view, clouds, stance, laptop, wording - tho they added spectacles and reusable water bottle, and a pen, to get the Green vote, and more sympathy, and the votes of people who like pens


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1379515329622245385?s=20


    Possibly the most Brittasy thing he has done yet

    Surely to truly chase the green vote he should be drinking his own urine as water apparently is an increasing scarcity
    Not vegan though.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,981

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    Norwich are an exciting team to watch, but do need to spend a little money when they go up, or it will be a repeat of last season. I remember when it was Leicester and West Brom who were the yoyo teams.

    They are still defensively frail and give away silly goals. They also squander too many chances - they won't anywhere near the number in the Premier League and have to make them all count.

    They are one of perhaps 10-12 teams who aren't good enough for the Premiership but too good for the Championship. The top of that pack currently is probably West ham who are at the height of their form but could be in a relegation dogfight this time next year - you never know.
    A Premier League of two divisions, perhaps of 16 teams each, would make a great deal of sense. Make the transition between the top and second tier less extreme, and get more of the fallen giants involved again.

    The Championship's a decent product (the fifth-best supported division in Europe IIRC.) The remainder of the Football League is mediocre at best. Might be an idea to get all the good quality stuff under one roof?
    How would that be materially different from what we have now?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,525

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    All you'd want now is to see him eating a bacon sandwich and you'd be set for life.

    To be fair to Starmer, it is a beautiful journey especially the section from Exeter to Dawlish and he's got the best seat - on the left of course - of the carriage. I must confess it's a journey I've done many times and the very best seat in the house is in the dining car as they do second sitting after Exeter for those passengers travelling down into Cornwall.
    That dining car is one of the great things missed during the pandemic. You meet the most fascinating people on it. Last time I used it I was sat next to the lady who made the LNER Peppercorn Class A1 60163 Tornado happen.
    Was this in 1937?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,610

    I don't know if people have been following it, but the new champions League format is absolutely stupid...they just need to get on and have a European super League, as clearly thats what they want.

    It is absolutely stupid. The idea that some teams automatically qualify because they used to be better 🙄

    What I would do is get rid of the eight third place teams in the CL going into the Europa League. They had their chance, and it makes for too many games.

  • Options

    Real 3 Liverpool 1

    FFS. We're going to need to get into the Top 4 aren't we? Or have no Europe next season.

    Damnit.
    Fantastic game to be fair
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Even worse though than letting in 3 goals is what the heck is going on with Alisson's moustache?

    It looks like he's stepped straight out of the eighties, which would be fine if Liverpool were playing like it was the eighties.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    All you'd want now is to see him eating a bacon sandwich and you'd be set for life.

    To be fair to Starmer, it is a beautiful journey especially the section from Exeter to Dawlish and he's got the best seat - on the left of course - of the carriage. I must confess it's a journey I've done many times and the very best seat in the house is in the dining car as they do second sitting after Exeter for those passengers travelling down into Cornwall.
    That dining car is one of the great things missed during the pandemic. You meet the most fascinating people on it. Last time I used it I was sat next to the lady who made the LNER Peppercorn Class A1 60163 Tornado happen.
    Was this in 1937?
    Completed 2008:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LNER_Peppercorn_Class_A1_60163_Tornado
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Either Sir Kir "Royale" Starmer never changes his shirt and only looks the exact same way with the same exact mask when he does the exact same train journey with remarkably identical weather conditions and with his laptop identically placed, or his social media team is just lying.

    LOL

    If you look very closely, the masks are slightly different. One is flatter and the ear loops are further apart. He must just like repeating himself.
    The clouds are quite different too.
    Not sure if serious, but they are definitely taken at different times/places along the trip. Surely someone in PB should be able to identify what mile marker they are at in both? ;)
    The photos are taken at exactly the same place, I know this route very well. It looks like Dawlish as Exmouth disappears across the water

    The exact same place? With the same weather? Same shirt, mask, hair, laptop, seat, words, and stance?

    At least they moved the bottle
    Yeah, one is a little after the other. As I said earlier, I guess they took one, thought it was pretty nice, and decided to tidy the place up for a second one. No grand conspiracy.
    On that stretch, you have to make sure you're not in one of those short tunnels when taking the photos.

    I know a part of that stretch fell into the sea a few years back. I have not done the trip to Plymouth since it was fixed. Does it still follow pretty much the same route as before?
    Yes. It's a magnificent stretch of railway. Keeps getting demolished by storms and they threaten to move it

    Sir Kir obviously loves it. Especially that one bit before Dawlish where he sits in the same seat and stares at the same clouds in the same way if he possibly can every nine months
    Labour Spad: 'Um, Sir Keir, why do you keep making the train trip to Plymouth several times a year while wearing the same clothes and putting it up on social media? There aren't really many winnable seats for us to pick up in that region.'

    SKS: 'I'm surprised you have to ask. You're the one who said I had to develop a Sound strategy and I've taken your advice to heart! I'll be back down there to fly the flag again just before the Hartlepool by-election.'

    Labour Spad: ....... < sobs silently >
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,610
    edited April 2021

    Real 3 Liverpool 1

    FFS. We're going to need to get into the Top 4 aren't we? Or have no Europe next season.

    Damnit.
    Don't worry, as the New Format featherbeds Liverpool.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56573883
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076
    Re vaccinations

    Can I point out that most European countries have been doing fewer over Easter.

    Even those countries with high infection rates such as Italy and Poland.

    I also suspect that the high number of UK vaccinations last Wednesday and Thursday was to allow people to have time off over Easter.

    Anyway we'll know more as the numbers come in during this week.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    Norwich are an exciting team to watch, but do need to spend a little money when they go up, or it will be a repeat of last season. I remember when it was Leicester and West Brom who were the yoyo teams.

    They are still defensively frail and give away silly goals. They also squander too many chances - they won't anywhere near the number in the Premier League and have to make them all count.

    They are one of perhaps 10-12 teams who aren't good enough for the Premiership but too good for the Championship. The top of that pack currently is probably West ham who are at the height of their form but could be in a relegation dogfight this time next year - you never know.
    A Premier League of two divisions, perhaps of 16 teams each, would make a great deal of sense. Make the transition between the top and second tier less extreme, and get more of the fallen giants involved again.

    The Championship's a decent product (the fifth-best supported division in Europe IIRC.) The remainder of the Football League is mediocre at best. Might be an idea to get all the good quality stuff under one roof?
    Teams go up and down. A decade ago I was watching Leicester in League 1, and was pleasantly surprised by the quality of football. I rather enjoyed that season, and it broke us of our losing mentality, and back into a winning one.
    Sunderland enjoyed it so much they're on their third go.
    Planning for a fourth too.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    I'm wondering which is the most trivial and uninteresting topic on today's thread(s). Perhaps there should be a vote. Is it:

    a) what Boris should be called
    b) a photo of Starmer/Keir on a train?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,173
    You and Starmer are wrong. On this point Johnson is right!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,986

    RobD said:

    Oh dear. Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen went to see Erdogan, but Charles Michel didn't offer the main chair to von der Leyen.

    https://twitter.com/SLagodinsky/status/1379483767161622535

    What a fool. He's the equivalent of the speaker of the house, what got into his head that he should be sitting in the main chair.
    Is he Speaker equivalent? He's president of the Council I thought, that's not even part of their Parliament. The EU website says he is President for dealing with foreign affairs, not VDL, though VDL does seem to do a lot of the legwork in general.

    They should probably sort out their titles and figure out who is where in seniority so this kind of commotion doesn't occur.
    To be fair, if we were talking ability, my cat would rank higher than UvdL.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,185

    I'm wondering which is the most trivial and uninteresting topic on today's thread(s). Perhaps there should be a vote. Is it:

    a) what Boris should be called
    b) a photo of Starmer/Keir on a train?

    It’s got to be better than a thread on AV...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,739
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear. Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen went to see Erdogan, but Charles Michel didn't offer the main chair to von der Leyen.

    https://twitter.com/SLagodinsky/status/1379483767161622535

    What a fool. He's the equivalent of the speaker of the house, what got into his head that he should be sitting in the main chair.
    Is he Speaker equivalent? He's president of the Council I thought, that's not even part of their Parliament. The EU website says he is President for dealing with foreign affairs, not VDL, though VDL does seem to do a lot of the legwork in general.

    They should probably sort out their titles and figure out who is where in seniority so this kind of commotion doesn't occur.
    To be fair, if we were talking ability, my cat would rank higher than UvdL.
    You may rank your cat too highly - I followed its advice and am now facing total financial ruin whilst he lazes about in luxury in the colonies. Deeply suspicious if you ask me.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Real 3 Liverpool 1

    FFS. We're going to need to get into the Top 4 aren't we? Or have no Europe next season.

    Damnit.
    Don't worry, as the New Format featherbeds Liverpool.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56573883
    I abhor that idea. Competition should be settled on the football field, nothing else. If we don't earn Champions League over the season on the pitch, we don't deserve it. The idea any club can be promoted or relegated or Champions or in Europe depending upon how their league goes is something really good with football.

    But anyway that won't be active next season anyway.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    I'm wondering which is the most trivial and uninteresting topic on today's thread(s). Perhaps there should be a vote. Is it:

    a) what Boris should be called
    b) a photo of Starmer/Keir on a train?

    We could talk about what wild swimming should be called again instead....
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    Norwich are an exciting team to watch, but do need to spend a little money when they go up, or it will be a repeat of last season. I remember when it was Leicester and West Brom who were the yoyo teams.

    They are still defensively frail and give away silly goals. They also squander too many chances - they won't anywhere near the number in the Premier League and have to make them all count.

    They are one of perhaps 10-12 teams who aren't good enough for the Premiership but too good for the Championship. The top of that pack currently is probably West ham who are at the height of their form but could be in a relegation dogfight this time next year - you never know.
    A Premier League of two divisions, perhaps of 16 teams each, would make a great deal of sense. Make the transition between the top and second tier less extreme, and get more of the fallen giants involved again.

    The Championship's a decent product (the fifth-best supported division in Europe IIRC.) The remainder of the Football League is mediocre at best. Might be an idea to get all the good quality stuff under one roof?
    How would that be materially different from what we have now?
    Status and a bit more money for the second tier, convenient opportunity to slim down and chuck a few sides out the back. A less punishing schedule, with the opportunity to instigate a winter break if they want to, results.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,147
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,610
    edited April 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    Norwich are an exciting team to watch, but do need to spend a little money when they go up, or it will be a repeat of last season. I remember when it was Leicester and West Brom who were the yoyo teams.

    They are still defensively frail and give away silly goals. They also squander too many chances - they won't anywhere near the number in the Premier League and have to make them all count.

    They are one of perhaps 10-12 teams who aren't good enough for the Premiership but too good for the Championship. The top of that pack currently is probably West ham who are at the height of their form but could be in a relegation dogfight this time next year - you never know.
    A Premier League of two divisions, perhaps of 16 teams each, would make a great deal of sense. Make the transition between the top and second tier less extreme, and get more of the fallen giants involved again.

    The Championship's a decent product (the fifth-best supported division in Europe IIRC.) The remainder of the Football League is mediocre at best. Might be an idea to get all the good quality stuff under one roof?
    Teams go up and down. A decade ago I was watching Leicester in League 1, and was pleasantly surprised by the quality of football. I rather enjoyed that season, and it broke us of our losing mentality, and back into a winning one.
    Sunderland enjoyed it so much they're on their third go.
    Planning for a fourth too.
    There are a surprising amount of teams in the PL that were recently in League 1, and vice versa. It is part of the ebb and flow of fortunes, and nothing wrong with that.
This discussion has been closed.