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Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility – politicalbetting.com
Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility – politicalbetting.com
Picture: 1964 general election odds.
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Oh damnit, now @kinabalu will accuse me of being snide, shallow and unpleasant.
Obviously I wish him a speedy recovery.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1379457558134587396?s=19
Their forecasts have been revised worse than ours have been.
AZN haven't been able to manufacture at the volume planned so we are all taking longer. That doesn't bump them to the front of the queue just because they whinged more.
I'm happy to offer lessons on how.
Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
*14 years before I was born, but you know what I mean.
I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration
But the revised figures are disappointing.
Previous assumptions: "3.2m per week in the previous iteration (3.9m thereafter)”....
(From the SAGE paper) the new assumptions are:
Per Cabinet Office scenario:
Fast: An average of 2.7m doses per week in England until week commencing 26th July and 2m per week thereafter
Slow: an average of 2.5m doses per week in England until week commencing 26th July and 2m per week thereafter
2.5m a week, with up to 2.4m required for second doses doesn't leave much headroom.
That seems quite remarkable, if true. Because, for a start, they will pretty soon look very foolish if they are wrong. ie they will be provably wrong within a few weeks.
What do they gain from that? I am not sneering at your opinion, I just don't see how it works, logically
The vacancy created by the death Tuesday of U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings [D-Florida] will be filled by the voters.
The Constitution requires elections for members of the U.S. House, and gives governors the responsibility for calling elections to fill vacancies. Florida law gives Gov. Ron DeSantis broad authority to decide on the timing of the special primary and general elections.
Democratic district
One thing that is almost guaranteed: The next representative from the Broward-Palm Beach County 20th Congressional District will be a Democrat.
The numbers tell why. Voter registration is 62% Democratic, 24% no party affiliation/independent, and 13% Republican.
President Joe Biden won 79.8% of the 2020 presidential vote in the district, reported Matthew Isbell, Democratic data analyst with MCI Maps. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton received 79.8%.
If the Republican governor wants to extend the time the U.S. House Democratic majority does without an additional vote, he doesn’t have to call the primary and general elections quickly. . . .
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-alcee-hastings-successor-special-election-20210406-4632ruoo2nev7c6nj3e656mbnq-story.html
have you read "The Political Punter" by somebody calling himself M. Smithson?
Fast forward 55 years and the Liberals' heirs are up a whole 2 seats, but others have gone from zero to 71 excluding the Speaker.
Really widened the potential for NOM.
I don't defend any of their other assumptions, but that did give me concern.
It is his brand, and his brand is powerful, but that's not the same as the suggestion people are moved to like him more because he is known as Boris. That is amazingly comptemptuous of the public, and its demonstrably not true.
Edit after checking the numbers of those awaiting a second dose.
Max, I respect your contributions on vaccine efforts a great deal (and many of your posts in general) but I do think you need to take a deep breath here and think about why. Even if you believe in evil power-crazed scientists, they've already, thanks to Covid, secured massive increases in future funding and the ear of senor politicians whenever they want. Why would they want to prolong lockdown restrictions, which are a real pain in the arse for science and scientists. Trust me, we're all zoomed-out and we want our foreign conferences back!
I do think (some on) SAGE are worried about the government cocking this up and getting everyone partying in pubs before the vaccination levels are high enough. Possibly too worried, but they'll have a better idea of what the government is thinking, so maybe not... But if they really want another lockdown/longer restrictions then the most effective way to do it would be to engineer another wave by opening up too fast. Pessimistic models can buy weeks to a month or two before they're ovetaken by reality, another wave could get us months of lovely lockdowns with Whitty and co on the tellybox.
They won't look foolish either, it will just be brushed off as "well this was worst case scenario planning and we didn't do as badly which is great".
I always liked the phrase, “If you sit in on a poker game and don’t see a sucker, get up. You’re the sucker.”
I would also add that I have made more money off votes already counted, results already half-in, than the long game. Such is life, I suppose. You do all the work and then you make just as much off someone misreading the exit poll, or, in my case, forgetting that the Swedish equivalent of Sunderland and Newcastle in declaring first might not be representative of the whole country.
It is his brand, and his brand is powerful, but that's not the same as the suggestion people are moved to like him more because he is known as Boris. That is amazingly contemptuous of the public, and its demonstrably not true.
Edit: I'll leave most typos up, but not such an egregious one.
On the header, it's only ever been speed that has helped me get some money, not knowledge - things like the referendum result thanks to an AndyJS spreadsheet, or people pointing to Scottish constituency odds being out of whack with reality.
My best betting successes (apart from Brexit, which was a hedge and made me more money than any other bet(s) I have ever had put together) are when people tell me that particular horses were going to win races. So that is the only time I bet now.
Those old enough will remember Destriero in the Supreme Novices, The Iliad in the Ladbroke, Cool Ground in the Welsh National.
All told to me by a stable lad in Lambourn who "knew people" (who? no idea). For some reason he thought I was someone he wanted to tell.
And more recently Altior's first Cheltenham told to me by someone at the yard that morning who said they were happy with it.
Other than that it's a mug's game!!
If that is the case, political punishment will (and should) be brutal. A Government that conspires to make its citizens less protected from illness is a Government that has wholly abandoned the very basic definition of government.
My comment was a bit flip, but was simply intended to suggest that our contracted supply is not quite as reliable as we believed it to be.
Hopefully Brillo will have them in a GB news spoiler event where the 3 auld dinosaurs can compare their blood pressure meds and bellow away to their hearts' content.
https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/1379459863781240832?s=20
Push pineapple, shake a tree
To which Sir Keith needs to change his name.
On the numbers for the last few days, I suspect a very strong weekend/BH effect to some extent. I know I’ve been grateful for some time off work.
I could understand using models that weren't properly up to date when this all started, it's not something we're going to be prepared for. We're now over a year into the pandemic and yet the same government advisors are still using barely modified versions of the same models that didn't work very well the first time around. I either have to put that down to basic incompetence or some purposeful misdirection by the scientists to continue keeping the population under lock and key. The first actually seems less likely than the second scenario.
Like the government there is a complete lack of scrutiny of the scientific advice that is going into the decision making process. They've had a year to open everything up and yet we're still basically just left hoping that either the model leaks or they decide to release it.
If they have impounded our vaccines, they may have a point.....oh well, if the UK vaccine roll out does slow down I guess that will rule out holidays in Europe this summer....
Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see what the real numbers are over the next few weeks/months. We've got Moderna and Novavax coming, they will necessitate a large number of first doses and we also have enough supply of AZ and Pfizer to cover all of the second doses. Something just doesn't add up.
If I was being charitable I'd say that the official forecasts may not include Novavax and J&J until they have received MHRA approval.
You'll no doubt be extending your favourite theme of Brexit Derangement Syndrome to intolerant, hateful and divided Scotland afore long.
Just played tennis in a snow storm. It started and ended in sunshine. The problem was the bit in the middle.
Interesting
You may not like it but Boris is his brand and everyone recognises it
On those figures Labour would hold Hartlepool if the Brexit vote split away more or less equally. The HPool constituency poll suggests it won't but will help the Tories.
The finding that Brexit party votes (and presumably those who think along those lines generally) are moving away from returning to Labour now Brexit is done looks a serious issue, and slightly surprising that post Jezza and post Brexit the non urban troops are not returning.
As it looks Labour can do nothing to win, except be the only alternative when the Borismobile crashes. In which position they of course have no rival.
Remember the huge amount of flapping at previous General Elections.
And it is only at the start with no certain end or future
Not that I'm counting, of course.
https://twitter.com/1968Tv/status/1357585896778924032?s=20
Like its insulting to have a Hebrew name.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1379365532042940419?s=20
That would result in us being stuck with restrictions until about a year from now (and, conveniently, arm the Government with new excuses to deploy ID cards.)
As for today's other crap news, about a prolonged slowdown in vaccine supply, from what little I've had time to read so far that looks more like a matter of genuine concern from within Government than anything to do with the scientists, which means that the fit under 50s may be waiting even longer than previously anticipated. I also wouldn't be surprised if that means that the remaining unlocking steps get put off, which in turn could mean that it might also be that bit easier for the boffins to persuade ministers to keep some of the restrictions until fresh excuses can be found to prolong them in the Autumn, if that is indeed the game that they're playing.
This site is great for that and following the threads around major elections will yield some genuine value punts and wins. That is politicalbetting's strength and its weakness is definitely a smugness bordering on obsessive and juvenile behaviour at times.Also when the site gets in politics rather than political betting it has a massive metro university educated white collar bias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjggbZIOgcQ
Plus the Tories would respond with the nuclear option: referring to Starmer by his middle name of ... Rodney. Can you imagine the horror of it?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/27/johnson-apologises-for-sexist-reference-to-emily-thornberry
The principle that you can choose what name other people use for you seems pretty much agreed-upon. And I think technically Johnson would under those circumstances have a decent claim for, of all things, workplace bullying.
6, 13, 6, 9, 10, 9, 7, 6, 2, 7, 5, 2, 9, 4, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, 8, 7, 10
7.54% average lead since 1st March
A bit like Doris or Mabel.
Come to think of it, 'Doris' might not be a bad alternative for those who don't like Boris.
Beats 'Bozzybear'.
Again.
[pause]
OK just did a bit of google-fu and thought - oh he's the son of a long line of baronets hence is def not Jewish. Then I read further and see that his mother is Jewish and hence I think that "makes" him Jewish so you could well be right.