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Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 6 in General
Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility – politicalbetting.com

Picture: 1964 general election odds.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,599
    Am I first?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    hjvvgjvgvgvgn
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,057
    edited April 6
    Good piece. I don't bet that often, but did quite well in the 2017 election simply by being ahead of the curve in terms of realizing the extent to which politics was realigning.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,599
    First among equals
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Indeed, 28th after the EU-adjustment (see para 6.1.ii.a.5 of Section III of Part 1 of Appendix 295)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,729
    edited April 6
    Floater said:
    PORMWAS.

    Oh damnit, now @kinabalu will accuse me of being snide, shallow and unpleasant.

    Obviously I wish him a speedy recovery.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    Floater said:
    That’s a good start, and we’re still three hours from kick off!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,040

    Floater said:
    PORMWAS.

    Oh damnit, now @kinabalu will accuse me of being snide, shallow and unpleasant.

    Obviously I wish him a speedy recovery.
    Don't roll over petty squabbles onto new threads, Philip. It detracts.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,599
    I'm afraid even with Fabinho able to play in midfield I don't think Liverpool can win the CL without their three senior centre backs.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,729
    Good thread Quincel.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,040
    What a very good header. As the board's superforecaster I have much to add but it will have to wait. Things are piling up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    Interesting and maybe sheds a light on labours problem

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1379457558134587396?s=19
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,729
    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Why would you say that?

    Their forecasts have been revised worse than ours have been.

    AZN haven't been able to manufacture at the volume planned so we are all taking longer. That doesn't bump them to the front of the queue just because they whinged more.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600

    Interesting and maybe sheds a light on labours problem

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1379457558134587396?s=19

    Labour activists and MPs, if they aspire to one day form the government, need to get off Twitter and its echo chamber of maybe 10-15% of public opinion.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,932
    Enjoyable read in the header. The inefficient betting market is to be celebrated!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 2,923
    Good header. In my experience betting niches are often great - as a student I made quite the little pile from betting on domestic rugby handicaps, where just knowing the rough strength of teams fielded was enough to get a significant edge.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Well if you need someone with the perfect balance of arrogance and humility then I'm your man.

    I'm happy to offer lessons on how.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,169
    edited April 6
    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Wish I* had taken the 25/1 on NOM for the 1964 GE, would have been one of the all time trading bets on election night, squeaky bum time for Ladbrokes though.

    *14 years before I was born, but you know what I mean.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,044
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,171
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    Anything is better than Shagger, which one poster on PB insists on using. Really annoys me, that one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Why would you say that?

    Their forecasts have been revised worse than ours have been.

    AZN haven't been able to manufacture at the volume planned so we are all taking longer. That doesn't bump them to the front of the queue just because they whinged more.
    Just a bit of paranoia, probably.
    But the revised figures are disappointing.

    Previous assumptions: "3.2m per week in the previous iteration (3.9m thereafter)”....

    (From the SAGE paper) the new assumptions are:

    Per Cabinet Office scenario:
    Fast: An average of 2.7m doses per week in England until week commencing 26th July and 2m per week thereafter
    Slow: an average of 2.5m doses per week in England until week commencing 26th July and 2m per week thereafter


    2.5m a week, with up to 2.4m required for second doses doesn't leave much headroom.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,044
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    You honestly think they are lowering vaccine forecasts so as to justify longer lockdowns?

    That seems quite remarkable, if true. Because, for a start, they will pretty soon look very foolish if they are wrong. ie they will be provably wrong within a few weeks.

    What do they gain from that? I am not sneering at your opinion, I just don't see how it works, logically
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 3,353
    South Florida Sun Sentinel - Special election will fill Alcee Hastings seat; timing is up to DeSantis

    The vacancy created by the death Tuesday of U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings [D-Florida] will be filled by the voters.

    The Constitution requires elections for members of the U.S. House, and gives governors the responsibility for calling elections to fill vacancies. Florida law gives Gov. Ron DeSantis broad authority to decide on the timing of the special primary and general elections.

    Democratic district
    One thing that is almost guaranteed: The next representative from the Broward-Palm Beach County 20th Congressional District will be a Democrat.

    The numbers tell why. Voter registration is 62% Democratic, 24% no party affiliation/independent, and 13% Republican.

    President Joe Biden won 79.8% of the 2020 presidential vote in the district, reported Matthew Isbell, Democratic data analyst with MCI Maps. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton received 79.8%.

    If the Republican governor wants to extend the time the U.S. House Democratic majority does without an additional vote, he doesn’t have to call the primary and general elections quickly. . . .

    https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-alcee-hastings-successor-special-election-20210406-4632ruoo2nev7c6nj3e656mbnq-story.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    @Quincel nice thread!

    have you read "The Political Punter" by somebody calling himself M. Smithson?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,729

    Wish I* had taken the 25/1 on NOM for the 1964 GE, would have been one of the all time trading bets on election night, squeaky bum time for Ladbrokes though.

    *14 years before I was born, but you know what I mean.

    Remarkable to think the only seats not Lab or Con were 9 for the Liberals. Literally zero "others".

    Fast forward 55 years and the Liberals' heirs are up a whole 2 seats, but others have gone from zero to 71 excluding the Speaker.

    Really widened the potential for NOM.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    edited April 6
    .
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    The wording in the paper is "per cabinet office scenarios". If SAGE were pulling numbers out of their butts, then presumably government would have said so ?

    I don't defend any of their other assumptions, but that did give me concern.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,169
    edited April 6
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    I'd rather not. People can call him what they like, but it gets my goat when people seek to suggest others calling him what he is known by is inherently wrong somehow. Edit: That is, they seek to police what others call him, out of misplaced insecurity to boot.

    It is his brand, and his brand is powerful, but that's not the same as the suggestion people are moved to like him more because he is known as Boris. That is amazingly comptemptuous of the public, and its demonstrably not true.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    edited April 6
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Why would you say that?

    Their forecasts have been revised worse than ours have been.

    AZN haven't been able to manufacture at the volume planned so we are all taking longer. That doesn't bump them to the front of the queue just because they whinged more.
    Just a bit of paranoia, probably.
    But the revised figures are disappointing.

    Previous assumptions: "3.2m per week in the previous iteration (3.9m thereafter)”....

    (From the SAGE paper) the new assumptions are:

    Per Cabinet Office scenario:
    Fast: An average of 2.7m doses per week in England until week commencing 26th July and 2m per week thereafter
    Slow: an average of 2.5m doses per week in England until week commencing 26th July and 2m per week thereafter


    2.5m a week, with up to 2.4m required for second doses doesn't leave much headroom.
    2.5m a week until July 26th still leaves enough doses (I think) to vaccinate the next 5million people awaiting a first dose.

    Edit after checking the numbers of those awaiting a second dose.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    edited April 6
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    Implying semi-imbecility on the part of the (dispassionate) user, though.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,246
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    Wait, so the Cabinet Office produced pessimistic vaccination forecasts to enable SAGE to produce pessimistic models to enable us all to be kept locked down forever? So do we blame the Cabinet Office or SAGE, or both?

    Max, I respect your contributions on vaccine efforts a great deal (and many of your posts in general) but I do think you need to take a deep breath here and think about why. Even if you believe in evil power-crazed scientists, they've already, thanks to Covid, secured massive increases in future funding and the ear of senor politicians whenever they want. Why would they want to prolong lockdown restrictions, which are a real pain in the arse for science and scientists. Trust me, we're all zoomed-out and we want our foreign conferences back!

    I do think (some on) SAGE are worried about the government cocking this up and getting everyone partying in pubs before the vaccination levels are high enough. Possibly too worried, but they'll have a better idea of what the government is thinking, so maybe not... But if they really want another lockdown/longer restrictions then the most effective way to do it would be to engineer another wave by opening up too fast. Pessimistic models can buy weeks to a month or two before they're ovetaken by reality, another wave could get us months of lovely lockdowns with Whitty and co on the tellybox.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738

    @Quincel nice thread!

    have you read "The Political Punter" by somebody calling himself M. Smithson?

    Never heard of the author..
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387

    @Quincel nice thread!

    have you read "The Political Punter" by somebody calling himself M. Smithson?

    Many thanks, and to all the other generous comments. I haven't, actually, but it does sound worth a look...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    You honestly think they are lowering vaccine forecasts so as to justify longer lockdowns?

    That seems quite remarkable, if true. Because, for a start, they will pretty soon look very foolish if they are wrong. ie they will be provably wrong within a few weeks.

    What do they gain from that? I am not sneering at your opinion, I just don't see how it works, logically
    I don't think they gain anything from it, I just think they're so dug into their own narrative that they're happy to change any input to ensure it continues.

    They won't look foolish either, it will just be brushed off as "well this was worst case scenario planning and we didn't do as badly which is great".
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,097
    edited April 6
    Good header.

    I always liked the phrase, “If you sit in on a poker game and don’t see a sucker, get up. You’re the sucker.”

    I would also add that I have made more money off votes already counted, results already half-in, than the long game. Such is life, I suppose. You do all the work and then you make just as much off someone misreading the exit poll, or, in my case, forgetting that the Swedish equivalent of Sunderland and Newcastle in declaring first might not be representative of the whole country.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,713
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    It’s been said many a time, but the emphasis has shifted from protecting the nhs to ‘no one must die of Covid’. I believe we have done enough now with vaccinations and crushing the virus for a decent opening up, right now. If we did cases would rise, but the hospitalisation and deaths would not behave as if we were back in January due to the increased (but not perfect) protection of the most vulnerable. Of course some of the unvaccinated would get ill and die, as would some of the older vaccinated cohort. But at some point we have to get other things going again. We cannot simply wait forever like this. One wonders what sage’s remit is? If it is just how best to deal with Covid, then some outside ideas need to be input and pretty damn quick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,169
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    I'd rather not. People can call him what they like, but it gets my goat when people seek to suggest others calling him what he is known by is inherently wrong somehow. That is, they seek to police what others call him, out of misplaced insecurity to boot.

    It is his brand, and his brand is powerful, but that's not the same as the suggestion people are moved to like him more because he is known as Boris. That is amazingly contemptuous of the public, and its demonstrably not true.

    Edit: I'll leave most typos up, but not such an egregious one.

    On the header, it's only ever been speed that has helped me get some money, not knowledge - things like the referendum result thanks to an AndyJS spreadsheet, or people pointing to Scottish constituency odds being out of whack with reality.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387

    Good header.

    I always liked the phrase, “If you sit in on a poker game and don’t see a sucker, get up. You’re the sucker.”

    I would also add that I have made more money off votes already counted, results already half-in, than the long game. Such is life, I suppose. You do all the work and then you make just as much off someone misreading the exit poll, or, in my case, forgetting that the Swedish equivalent of Sunderland and Newcastle in declaring first might not be representative of the whole country.

    Yes, one of my rules of betting is that there are no prizes for taking the tough markets on. If you spot a massive blunder in some random seat or minor party vote share market or something there's no reason not to make your main bet on that and the harder to call overall winner market a sideshow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,169
    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Not sure how that tracks - particularly given we were in a major third wave, getting as many people vaccinated sooner rather than later absolutely pays off no matter if others catch up later.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    Good article.

    My best betting successes (apart from Brexit, which was a hedge and made me more money than any other bet(s) I have ever had put together) are when people tell me that particular horses were going to win races. So that is the only time I bet now.

    Those old enough will remember Destriero in the Supreme Novices, The Iliad in the Ladbroke, Cool Ground in the Welsh National.

    All told to me by a stable lad in Lambourn who "knew people" (who? no idea). For some reason he thought I was someone he wanted to tell.

    And more recently Altior's first Cheltenham told to me by someone at the yard that morning who said they were happy with it.

    Other than that it's a mug's game!! :smile:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,627
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    Are you really saying (because this seems to be the logical outworking of your post) that the Government would hold back vaccine supply, in order to slow the vaccination process, in order to extend the era of covid, and justify its intention to bring in biometric identity cards?

    If that is the case, political punishment will (and should) be brutal. A Government that conspires to make its citizens less protected from illness is a Government that has wholly abandoned the very basic definition of government.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,054

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    Anything is better than Shagger, which one poster on PB insists on using. Really annoys me, that one.
    The ones that annoy me are Bozo and The Clown. Not because I am particularly averse to political insults (I may have indulged in a Tony B. Liar once or twice in the past) but that it is presented as some sort of insightful political analysis.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    edited April 6
    Northern Ireland recalls Stormont early
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,169

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    Anything is better than Shagger, which one poster on PB insists on using. Really annoys me, that one.
    The ones that annoy me are Bozo and The Clown. Not because I am particularly averse to political insults (I may have indulged in a Tony B. Liar once or twice in the past) but that it is presented as some sort of insightful political analysis.
    Gideon for Osborne was a good one, since even if people want to pretend it's not right for people to go by a second name or, in effect, a political name rather than what they are known as personally, it was not even an accurate one, as he legally changed his name from Gideon.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    .
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Not sure how that tracks - particularly given we were in a major third wave, getting as many people vaccinated sooner rather than later absolutely pays off no matter if others catch up later.
    Absolutely.
    My comment was a bit flip, but was simply intended to suggest that our contracted supply is not quite as reliable as we believed it to be.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    edited April 6
    More fun busting.
    Hopefully Brillo will have them in a GB news spoiler event where the 3 auld dinosaurs can compare their blood pressure meds and bellow away to their hearts' content.

    https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/1379459863781240832?s=20
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    Anything is better than Shagger, which one poster on PB insists on using. Really annoys me, that one.
    Shagger-do, do, do
    Push pineapple, shake a tree
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    Boris the Bold will only ever be defeated in the ratings by Noggin the Nog.

    To which Sir Keith needs to change his name.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,713

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    Are you really saying (because this seems to be the logical outworking of your post) that the Government would hold back vaccine supply, in order to slow the vaccination process, in order to extend the era of covid, and justify its intention to bring in biometric identity cards?

    If that is the case, political punishment will (and should) be brutal. A Government that conspires to make its citizens less protected from illness is a Government that has wholly abandoned the very basic definition of government.
    I suspect, but cannot know or prove, that the modellers are using one of the lower estimates for vaccine supply as this best gives them a pessimistic answer, which seems to be their thing. I doubt the government is holding back real world supply.
    On the numbers for the last few days, I suspect a very strong weekend/BH effect to some extent. I know I’ve been grateful for some time off work.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,933
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    Or it would be a nice way of justifying a vaccine passport. They will be needed for the 3rd and 4th lockdowns.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    Wait, so the Cabinet Office produced pessimistic vaccination forecasts to enable SAGE to produce pessimistic models to enable us all to be kept locked down forever? So do we blame the Cabinet Office or SAGE, or both?

    Max, I respect your contributions on vaccine efforts a great deal (and many of your posts in general) but I do think you need to take a deep breath here and think about why. Even if you believe in evil power-crazed scientists, they've already, thanks to Covid, secured massive increases in future funding and the ear of senor politicians whenever they want. Why would they want to prolong lockdown restrictions, which are a real pain in the arse for science and scientists. Trust me, we're all zoomed-out and we want our foreign conferences back!

    I do think (some on) SAGE are worried about the government cocking this up and getting everyone partying in pubs before the vaccination levels are high enough. Possibly too worried, but they'll have a better idea of what the government is thinking, so maybe not... But if they really want another lockdown/longer restrictions then the most effective way to do it would be to engineer another wave by opening up too fast. Pessimistic models can buy weeks to a month or two before they're ovetaken by reality, another wave could get us months of lovely lockdowns with Whitty and co on the tellybox.
    I just have completely lost any trust in SAGE and the government scientists. They churn out incorrect model after incorrect model and continue to expect the people to (literally) live and die by them. There is no peer review process, none of them are made properly public, we're essentially just told to "trust the process" and even after they're proved to be hopelessly pessimistic they keep using the same broken models to churn out yet more garbage.

    I could understand using models that weren't properly up to date when this all started, it's not something we're going to be prepared for. We're now over a year into the pandemic and yet the same government advisors are still using barely modified versions of the same models that didn't work very well the first time around. I either have to put that down to basic incompetence or some purposeful misdirection by the scientists to continue keeping the population under lock and key. The first actually seems less likely than the second scenario.

    Like the government there is a complete lack of scrutiny of the scientific advice that is going into the decision making process. They've had a year to open everything up and yet we're still basically just left hoping that either the model leaks or they decide to release it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    More fun busting.
    Hopefully Brillo will have them in a GB news spoiler event where the 3 auld dinosaurs can compare their blood pressure meds and bellow away to their hearts content.

    https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/1379459863781240832?s=20

    I am no fan of Salmond or Galloway but your attitude is exactly why Scotland is heading for intolerance, hate and division for years to come
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    "There was me, that is Alexander Boris de Pfeffel, and my three droogs, that is Priti, Govey, and Dom, and we sat in the Kensington Milkbar trying to make up our Raab-oodocks what to do with the evening. The Kensington Milkbar sold Milk-plus, milk plus Corn Syrup or GM Soya or Chlorinated Chicken, which is what we were drinking. This would sharpen you up and make you ready for a bit of the old No-Deal Brexit!"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1379467386328322052?s=20

    If they have impounded our vaccines, they may have a point.....oh well, if the UK vaccine roll out does slow down I guess that will rule out holidays in Europe this summer....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,602
    Leon said:
    a couple of pundits picking up on the very early signs of a lab to lib drift....


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    The wording in the paper is "per cabinet office scenarios". If SAGE were pulling numbers out of their butts, then presumably government would have said so ?

    I don't defend any of their other assumptions, but that did give me concern.
    That's the same Cabinet Office that is run by lockdown and vaccine passport ultra Michael Gove.

    Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see what the real numbers are over the next few weeks/months. We've got Moderna and Novavax coming, they will necessitate a large number of first doses and we also have enough supply of AZ and Pfizer to cover all of the second doses. Something just doesn't add up.

    If I was being charitable I'd say that the official forecasts may not include Novavax and J&J until they have received MHRA approval.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443

    More fun busting.
    Hopefully Brillo will have them in a GB news spoiler event where the 3 auld dinosaurs can compare their blood pressure meds and bellow away to their hearts content.

    https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/1379459863781240832?s=20

    I am no fan of Salmond or Galloway but your attitude is exactly why Scotland is heading for intolerance, hate and division for years to come
    Ah, the Vicar of Bray!
    You'll no doubt be extending your favourite theme of Brexit Derangement Syndrome to intolerant, hateful and divided Scotland afore long.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    edited April 6
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,602
    Anti Vaccine Passport dividend for Ravey Davey?

    Interesting
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    More fun busting.
    Hopefully Brillo will have them in a GB news spoiler event where the 3 auld dinosaurs can compare their blood pressure meds and bellow away to their hearts content.

    https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/1379459863781240832?s=20

    I am no fan of Salmond or Galloway but your attitude is exactly why Scotland is heading for intolerance, hate and division for years to come
    Ah, the Vicar of Bray!
    You'll no doubt be extending your favourite theme of Brexit Derangement Syndrome to intolerant, hateful and divided Scotland afore long.
    You make my case though there is nothing hateful about Scots, just their intolerant politicians and I include all of them
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
    It'd be very petty. If he wants to be known as Mr Boris Johnson, that's his choice.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,044

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1379467386328322052?s=20

    If they have impounded our vaccines, they may have a point.....oh well, if the UK vaccine roll out does slow down I guess that will rule out holidays in Europe this summer....

    If they have impounded our vaccines they are lucky we haven't lobbed a nuke
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
    They would not have a clue who they were talking about

    You may not like it but Boris is his brand and everyone recognises it
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,957
    Leon said:
    Every poll since 6th March has been consistent with C 42 Lab 36. There are no other figures for which this is true. So it must be about right. There is no trend in any direction.

    On those figures Labour would hold Hartlepool if the Brexit vote split away more or less equally. The HPool constituency poll suggests it won't but will help the Tories.

    The finding that Brexit party votes (and presumably those who think along those lines generally) are moving away from returning to Labour now Brexit is done looks a serious issue, and slightly surprising that post Jezza and post Brexit the non urban troops are not returning.

    As it looks Labour can do nothing to win, except be the only alternative when the Borismobile crashes. In which position they of course have no rival.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923

    More fun busting.
    Hopefully Brillo will have them in a GB news spoiler event where the 3 auld dinosaurs can compare their blood pressure meds and bellow away to their hearts content.

    https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/1379459863781240832?s=20

    I am no fan of Salmond or Galloway but your attitude is exactly why Scotland is heading for intolerance, hate and division for years to come
    Ah, the Vicar of Bray!
    You'll no doubt be extending your favourite theme of Brexit Derangement Syndrome to intolerant, hateful and divided Scotland afore long.
    You make my case though there is nothing hateful about Scots, just their intolerant politicians and I include all of them
    Legal action incoming?

    Remember the huge amount of flapping at previous General Elections.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,376
    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1379467386328322052?s=20

    If they have impounded our vaccines, they may have a point.....oh well, if the UK vaccine roll out does slow down I guess that will rule out holidays in Europe this summer....

    If they have impounded our vaccines they are lucky we haven't lobbed a nuke
    I wonder how many European countries rely on British tourists for a substantial proportion of their GDP.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
    It'd be very petty. If he wants to be known as Mr Boris Johnson, that's his choice.
    Has he actually said that - rather than having just gone along with it? I have read somewhere that he himself pointed out to somebody that 'Boris' is not his real name - as used by family etc.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    MattW said:

    More fun busting.
    Hopefully Brillo will have them in a GB news spoiler event where the 3 auld dinosaurs can compare their blood pressure meds and bellow away to their hearts content.

    https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/1379459863781240832?s=20

    I am no fan of Salmond or Galloway but your attitude is exactly why Scotland is heading for intolerance, hate and division for years to come
    Ah, the Vicar of Bray!
    You'll no doubt be extending your favourite theme of Brexit Derangement Syndrome to intolerant, hateful and divided Scotland afore long.
    You make my case though there is nothing hateful about Scots, just their intolerant politicians and I include all of them
    Legal action incoming?

    Remember the huge amount of flapping at previous General Elections.
    Scotland is in its own constitutional crisis when it needs a government to deal with covid, health and education, and lots more

    And it is only at the start with no certain end or future
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
    They would not have a clue who they were talking about

    You may not like it but Boris is his brand and everyone recognises it

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
    They would not have a clue who they were talking about

    You may not like it but Boris is his brand and everyone recognises it
    I am not particularly bothered one way or the other - but there is no obligation on his opponents to stick to that name.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,204
    Leon said:
    Aaaaand it's the 6th poll in a row to show an increasing Tory lead since the vaccine bounce was declared officially over...

    Not that I'm counting, of course.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,044
    Back when everything was better, including TV football title sequences.....

    https://twitter.com/1968Tv/status/1357585896778924032?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    The wording in the paper is "per cabinet office scenarios". If SAGE were pulling numbers out of their butts, then presumably government would have said so ?

    I don't defend any of their other assumptions, but that did give me concern.
    That's the same Cabinet Office that is run by lockdown and vaccine passport ultra Michael Gove.

    Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see what the real numbers are over the next few weeks/months. We've got Moderna and Novavax coming, they will necessitate a large number of first doses and we also have enough supply of AZ and Pfizer to cover all of the second doses. Something just doesn't add up.

    If I was being charitable I'd say that the official forecasts may not include Novavax and J&J until they have received MHRA approval.
    It seems quite difficult to get any hard information - but you could well be right about the as yet unapproved (by MHRA) vaccines.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,627

    More fun busting.
    Hopefully Brillo will have them in a GB news spoiler event where the 3 auld dinosaurs can compare their blood pressure meds and bellow away to their hearts content.

    https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/1379459863781240832?s=20

    I am no fan of Salmond or Galloway but your attitude is exactly why Scotland is heading for intolerance, hate and division for years to come
    I think it's hilarious how TUD comes here and affects some sort of moral superiority over the 'PB Tories' when he supports the dirty compromised authoritarians. Clearly hasn't had his 'Do you think we're the baddies?' moment yet. Probably comes quite hard to someone who's built the equivalent of Edinburgh castle on the moral high ground.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,729
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    Anything is better than Shagger, which one poster on PB insists on using. Really annoys me, that one.
    The ones that annoy me are Bozo and The Clown. Not because I am particularly averse to political insults (I may have indulged in a Tony B. Liar once or twice in the past) but that it is presented as some sort of insightful political analysis.
    Gideon for Osborne was a good one, since even if people want to pretend it's not right for people to go by a second name or, in effect, a political name rather than what they are known as personally, it was not even an accurate one, as he legally changed his name from Gideon.
    I always found people choosing to use Gideon in a negative sense to be antisemitic. A precursor of what was to come.

    Like its insulting to have a Hebrew name.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,044
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    The wording in the paper is "per cabinet office scenarios". If SAGE were pulling numbers out of their butts, then presumably government would have said so ?

    I don't defend any of their other assumptions, but that did give me concern.
    That's the same Cabinet Office that is run by lockdown and vaccine passport ultra Michael Gove.

    Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see what the real numbers are over the next few weeks/months. We've got Moderna and Novavax coming, they will necessitate a large number of first doses and we also have enough supply of AZ and Pfizer to cover all of the second doses. Something just doesn't add up.

    If I was being charitable I'd say that the official forecasts may not include Novavax and J&J until they have received MHRA approval.
    It seems quite difficult to get any hard information - but you could well be right about the as yet unapproved (by MHRA) vaccines.
    On the other hand, this:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1379365532042940419?s=20
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    edited April 6
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    If there's any truth in the notion that the scientists are trying to drag out mask use and social distancing then I can think of one plausible explanation: they're frightened of a two-pronged attack in the Winter from Covid (working its way through the residual population of unprotected and poorly protected people, of whom there will still be a fair number) and a bad flu season. Working backwards from that, if you wanted to keep some of the restrictions in place to squash it then perhaps the best thing to do would be to persuade Government to string them out over the back end of the Summer, wait for a signal - any signal - in the data coming through around September time, and then declare the necessity to keep going for another six months because otherwise there will be a turbo-charged version of the usual NHS Winter Crisis and lots and lots of corpses. Again.

    That would result in us being stuck with restrictions until about a year from now (and, conveniently, arm the Government with new excuses to deploy ID cards.)

    As for today's other crap news, about a prolonged slowdown in vaccine supply, from what little I've had time to read so far that looks more like a matter of genuine concern from within Government than anything to do with the scientists, which means that the fit under 50s may be waiting even longer than previously anticipated. I also wouldn't be surprised if that means that the remaining unlocking steps get put off, which in turn could mean that it might also be that bit easier for the boffins to persuade ministers to keep some of the restrictions until fresh excuses can be found to prolong them in the Autumn, if that is indeed the game that they're playing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    Leon said:

    Back when everything was better, including TV football title sequences.....

    https://twitter.com/1968Tv/status/1357585896778924032?s=20

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Re4aDJL3heA
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,057
    Leon said:

    Back when everything was better, including TV football title sequences.....

    https://twitter.com/1968Tv/status/1357585896778924032?s=20

    The most memorable thing from a largely forgettable World Cup? I'm hoping the BBC use this again in 2026 (sorry Mexico and Canada, but no one's really interested in you...):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjggbZIOgcQ
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,204
    edited April 6
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
    No doubt they would consider Labour to be even more petty and pusillanimous than they do already.

    Plus the Tories would respond with the nuclear option: referring to Starmer by his middle name of ... Rodney. Can you imagine the horror of it?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,381
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
    Well, Emily Thornberry would owe him an apology, for one thing:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/27/johnson-apologises-for-sexist-reference-to-emily-thornberry

    The principle that you can choose what name other people use for you seems pretty much agreed-upon. And I think technically Johnson would under those circumstances have a decent claim for, of all things, workplace bullying.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    Re Conservatives lead over Labour since 1st March

    6, 13, 6, 9, 10, 9, 7, 6, 2, 7, 5, 2, 9, 4, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, 8, 7, 10

    7.54% average lead since 1st March
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
    They would not have a clue who they were talking about

    You may not like it but Boris is his brand and everyone recognises it

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.

    Edit: And that the others may have gone by their second names with most others is hardly the point. The use of 'real' suggests going by a different name with others is fake somehow, which is nonsense. Our politics seems set up for this sort of thing, given you can put your full name on the ballot, or what you are known as.
    I came quite late into that discussion , but my comment was little more than an observation rather than a criticism. What would be the impact if Labour and other politicians suddenly started refering on a regular basis to 'Mr Alexander Johnson'?The public reaction would be interesting.
    They would not have a clue who they were talking about

    You may not like it but Boris is his brand and everyone recognises it
    I am not particularly bothered one way or the other - but there is no obligation on his opponents to stick to that name.
    I did not think there was
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387

    Some politics bets are about political knowledge (sometimes inside knowledge) - next leader etc type of markets . Most though are about numbers and analysis of them. Analysis that is beyond most casual politicos as it is not looking at it politically but mathematically.
    This site is great for that and following the threads around major elections will yield some genuine value punts and wins. That is politicalbetting's strength and its weakness is definitely a smugness bordering on obsessive and juvenile behaviour at times.Also when the site gets in politics rather than political betting it has a massive metro university educated white collar bias

    I agree with a lot of this, though I personally think the biggest edge over the markets isn't so much deeper analysis of the polls/numbers but a broadly dispassionate analysis of them. People are just awful at separating what they want and what they expect in elections.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    Anything is better than Shagger, which one poster on PB insists on using. Really annoys me, that one.
    The ones that annoy me are Bozo and The Clown. Not because I am particularly averse to political insults (I may have indulged in a Tony B. Liar once or twice in the past) but that it is presented as some sort of insightful political analysis.
    Gideon for Osborne was a good one, since even if people want to pretend it's not right for people to go by a second name or, in effect, a political name rather than what they are known as personally, it was not even an accurate one, as he legally changed his name from Gideon.
    I always found people choosing to use Gideon in a negative sense to be antisemitic. A precursor of what was to come.

    Like its insulting to have a Hebrew name.
    Just out of fashion, I think.
    A bit like Doris or Mabel.


    Come to think of it, 'Doris' might not be a bad alternative for those who don't like Boris.
    Beats 'Bozzybear'.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:



    It'd be very petty. If he wants to be known as Mr Boris Johnson, that's his choice.

    Has he actually said that - rather than having just gone along with it? I have read somewhere that he himself pointed out to somebody that 'Boris' is not his real name - as used by family etc.
    Why on earth would have have to say that? I can just imagine the press conference now "Yes, you can call me Boris Johnson". If he didn't want people to call him that, I am sure we would have heard that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,376

    Re Conservatives lead over Labour since 1st March

    6, 13, 6, 9, 10, 9, 7, 6, 2, 7, 5, 2, 9, 4, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, 8, 7, 10

    7.54% average lead since 1st March

    44 Tory leads in a row.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,381
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:

    Am I first?

    You were, but the EU decided it doesn't matter about being first in the Queue
    Looking at our recently revised vaccine forecasts, they might just be right ?
    Tbh, it doesn't pass the sniff test. The forecasts are inputs to reach an output that predicts a horrible 3rd/4th wave. The context of everything from SAGE at the moment is "how can we scare the government into listening to us" and that can be seen on everything they're saying and briefing out. They have to use ultra pessimistic inputs to ensure the output delivers for their goal.

    I know it's just the Daily Mail but Whitty and Valance apparently not wanting to let go of social distancing is what this is all about. Vaccines let us out of this nightmare. The scientists, for whatever reason, want to delay that by much longer than June 21st. Doomsday predictions and pessimistic forecasts is the easiest way to do that as politicians won't understand the data anyway.
    The wording in the paper is "per cabinet office scenarios". If SAGE were pulling numbers out of their butts, then presumably government would have said so ?

    I don't defend any of their other assumptions, but that did give me concern.
    That's the same Cabinet Office that is run by lockdown and vaccine passport ultra Michael Gove.

    Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see what the real numbers are over the next few weeks/months. We've got Moderna and Novavax coming, they will necessitate a large number of first doses and we also have enough supply of AZ and Pfizer to cover all of the second doses. Something just doesn't add up.

    If I was being charitable I'd say that the official forecasts may not include Novavax and J&J until they have received MHRA approval.
    It seems quite difficult to get any hard information - but you could well be right about the as yet unapproved (by MHRA) vaccines.
    On the other hand, this:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1379365532042940419?s=20
    Ah, yes. That thing that everyone (including me) said definitely wasn't going to happen, has happened.

    Again.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.

    Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc

    He's Boris, its his name.

    Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.

    Starmer is sometimes called Keith.

    It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
    He is not known as Boris in private life - by his family and close friends. His real name is Alexander or Alex.
    I know this has been addressed, but it really is worth reflecting that that is an even sillier criticism that some people make of him being known as Boris (though I don't think you are making it as a criticism). Someone with your exhaustive knowledge of historical politics will have no trouble listing the many PMs and politicians who did not go by their first or 'real' names. Some altered their surnames at various points in their lives too.
    The solution is for everyone to call him "Bozzybear" like what that Carrie Symonds does.

    A neutral name, implying neither approval or abjuration

    Anything is better than Shagger, which one poster on PB insists on using. Really annoys me, that one.
    The ones that annoy me are Bozo and The Clown. Not because I am particularly averse to political insults (I may have indulged in a Tony B. Liar once or twice in the past) but that it is presented as some sort of insightful political analysis.
    Gideon for Osborne was a good one, since even if people want to pretend it's not right for people to go by a second name or, in effect, a political name rather than what they are known as personally, it was not even an accurate one, as he legally changed his name from Gideon.
    I always found people choosing to use Gideon in a negative sense to be antisemitic. A precursor of what was to come.

    Like its insulting to have a Hebrew name.
    Interesting thought. I'd never considered it. He's not Jewish is he? Or you mean just the implication.

    [pause]

    OK just did a bit of google-fu and thought - oh he's the son of a long line of baronets hence is def not Jewish. Then I read further and see that his mother is Jewish and hence I think that "makes" him Jewish so you could well be right.
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