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Tonight’s Opinium poll sees CON lead down 4% and Johnson’s approval down 6% – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thats pretty exciting - would deliver a green-left majority (unless the Greens decided they preferred the CDU, but I doubt it). In a way the Green leadership might prefer a slightly less good result, to keep the CDU option open - if there's a centre-left alternative, their supporters would kill them for opting for the CDU.

    Still all within 1-2%...
    The direction of travel is suggesting that the Greens could well end up largest Party. And therefore difficult to see a way of denying them the Chancellorship. (The only feasible coalition without them would be Union/SPD and FDP), not sure why the SPD would go for that, unless they led it.
    How far can the Union fall is the question?
    All German polling until CSU leader Soder announces his bid to be Union chancellor candidate instead of the hapless new CDU leader Laschet should be taken with a pinch of salt.

    On the latest polling 22% prefer Greens leader Habeck as next Chancellor, 19% prefer SPD leader Scholz and just 18% prefer Laschet. However 35% want Soder to be next Chancellor, to just 20% for Habeck and 19% for Scholz, a vast difference

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chancellor_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election
    Yes, good reality check. Though it doesn't affect the Habeck/Scholz figures much - essentially Soder is liked by the right and Laschet isn't (much). He might well pull over some from the AfD, though, which as you say would change the calculations.

    On the SPD/Left being willing to be junior partners to the Greens - I think they'd have trouble refusing if the maths made it possible, since that would force a Green-CDU government. It'd be like the LibDems enabling a Tory government, which is surely unthi...oh. :)
    There is also the "traffic light" coalition Green/SPD/FDP. Course the FDP bailed before. But they would certainly prefer it to an outright Leftist coalition.
    The SPD might just too. Ditto the Greens themselves.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    An example of why we should allow limited travel

    Portugal

    It has had a tough time. For a short while it experienced the worst Covid rates in the world, I believe

    Today it reports 344 cases and 8 new deaths.

    Now, Portugal is a small country. Just 10m people.

    But 344 cases and 8 deaths is TINY even in that context. And it is still falling. Covid is being cornered, if not eradicated.

    At the same time in a couple of months most of Britain will have been vaxxed.

    The Portuguese need our money, they want us to go there. We want to go there, to the sun.

    Life is not without risk. There will be some risk. But if Portugal agrees to bar flights from high risk countries like Brazil (if it continues to be so awful there) I cannot see a reason why we cannot holiday on the Algarve in July

    That's what people said last year.

    And those holidays led to covid being imported a second time.

    Given that you were earlier bewailing the threats to London as a tourist centre why do you now want to encourage people to go on holiday to Portugal rather than London ?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Hurrah. Good news for ROI, and the right thing to do.
    Why? They hate us. See ALL their media coverage of the UK since the Neolithic era.

    On the other hand, this will infuriate them AND humiliate them, so yeah, let's do it. But they won't thank us
    I don't think it's as simple as that. And I think they will be quietly thankful - I don't expect or want weeping and people strewing rose petals in Boris's path.

    It is also true that Britain as an entity has been responsible for a great deal of hardship in Ireland over the years, and whilst I don't hold any personal shame for that, this does feel like a bit of poetical restitution.
    To be honest, I think we were insanely fair on them during the Famine. It was their stupid choice to plant ONLY POTATOES

    Brilliant idea, not

    We should have just sealed off the whole island and left them to it, instead we charitably - without any thanks or honour - kept the vital channels of commerce open, so Ireland could continue to export wheat through Liverpool and Cardiff, earning much-needed foreign currency which enabled them to build evermore spectacular Famine memorials

    Note that Irish historians NEVER acknowledge this
    FFS over a million died, in what was then our own country. Not a joking matter.
    Ireland was invaded by Normans from England, so your statement that it was "... then our own country" is rather inaccurate. It was more like a possession or possibly a colony.
    His meaning seems pretty clear. Whatever the rights or wrongs of historical imperial associations, Ireland was part of the British State at the time and thus treating it well, and a lot better than it actually was, should not be presented as if it would be an act of charity. It should have been a given that it be treated well.

    I mean, your own statement about Normans from England seems pretty inaccurate, since why blame England at all if it was under the domination of an invading force?
    Well, Ireland was not invaded by Normans from Normandy. It was invaded by the Normans that went to England first and then expanded westward.

  • Andy_JS said:
    I imagine Angus Brendan MacNeil will be along shortly.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,258

    Leon said:

    These polls man...

    There is nothing complicated about it really. Two polls all in MoE change around the trend of ~5-6% Tory lead, which has been the case for the past couple of months.
    5 pount lead feels right to me, I think it will be a tie again soon
    Cancelling foreign summer holidays will definitely dent Tory number,. especially after showing all that leg about it being possible, and all the UK reasonable priced holidays will have been nabbed by now.
    Prediction: they won't cancel foreign holidays. There will be corridors and traffic lights.

    And rightly so. If there are two countries well vaxxed, with minimum infection, let them travel to each other. With precautions.

    We cannot wait til the world has Zero Covid. It could be years, or it could be never. The travel and hospitality industries - and human nature - demand a rational response
    But most people will want to go to Spain or Greece, who won't be well vaccinated any time soon.
    Surely you go where you can. If Poland is freed up, you holiday on the Baltic.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Bit of a ridiculous header even before deltapoll given yougov has a Tory lead of around 10 from memory. The vaccine bounce will last for many more weeks I suspect given every day it’ll be at the forefront of the electorate as hundreds of thousands receive their jab for the first time while older voters start to receive their second. The rollout combined with the easing of lockdown are probably the two major news stories to take us through to the May elections.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083

    Leon said:

    These polls man...

    There is nothing complicated about it really. Two polls all in MoE change around the trend of ~5-6% Tory lead, which has been the case for the past couple of months.
    5 pount lead feels right to me, I think it will be a tie again soon
    Cancelling foreign summer holidays will definitely dent Tory number,. especially after showing all that leg about it being possible, and all the UK reasonable priced holidays will have been nabbed by now.
    Prediction: they won't cancel foreign holidays. There will be corridors and traffic lights.

    And rightly so. If there are two countries well vaxxed, with minimum infection, let them travel to each other. With precautions.

    We cannot wait til the world has Zero Covid. It could be years, or it could be never. The travel and hospitality industries - and human nature - demand a rational response
    But most people will want to go to Spain or Greece, who won't be well vaccinated any time soon.
    Surely you go where you can. If Poland is freed up, you holiday on the Baltic.
    But most people will have already booked.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2021
    Brom said:

    Bit of a ridiculous header even before deltapoll given yougov has a Tory lead of around 10 from memory. The vaccine bounce will last for many more weeks I suspect given every day it’ll be at the forefront of the electorate as hundreds of thousands receive their jab for the first time while older voters start to receive their second. The rollout combined with the easing of lockdown are probably the two major news stories to take us through to the May elections.

    PB thread headers have predicted five of the last zero Boris Electoral defeats
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477

    Andy_JS said:
    I imagine Angus Brendan MacNeil will be along shortly.
    And Cherry, despite denials.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617

    Andy_JS said:
    I imagine Angus Brendan MacNeil will be along shortly.
    And Cherry, despite denials.
    Three more after that and it would have the second largest number of Scottish MPs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,587
    I'm guessing Labour would love a by-election in Gordon Brown's former seat of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath because the SNP majority there is only about 1,000 votes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Leon said:

    These polls man...

    There is nothing complicated about it really. Two polls all in MoE change around the trend of ~5-6% Tory lead, which has been the case for the past couple of months.
    5 pount lead feels right to me, I think it will be a tie again soon
    Cancelling foreign summer holidays will definitely dent Tory number,. especially after showing all that leg about it being possible, and all the UK reasonable priced holidays will have been nabbed by now.
    Prediction: they won't cancel foreign holidays. There will be corridors and traffic lights.

    And rightly so. If there are two countries well vaxxed, with minimum infection, let them travel to each other. With precautions.

    We cannot wait til the world has Zero Covid. It could be years, or it could be never. The travel and hospitality industries - and human nature - demand a rational response
    But most people will want to go to Spain or Greece, who won't be well vaccinated any time soon.
    Surely you go where you can. If Poland is freed up, you holiday on the Baltic.
    But most people will have already booked.
    Only a certifiable moron will have ALREADY booked a holiday abroad. The uncertainties are obvious
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    These polls man...

    There is nothing complicated about it really. Two polls all in MoE change around the trend of ~5-6% Tory lead, which has been the case for the past couple of months.
    5 pount lead feels right to me, I think it will be a tie again soon
    Cancelling foreign summer holidays will definitely dent Tory number,. especially after showing all that leg about it being possible, and all the UK reasonable priced holidays will have been nabbed by now.
    Prediction: they won't cancel foreign holidays. There will be corridors and traffic lights.

    And rightly so. If there are two countries well vaxxed, with minimum infection, let them travel to each other. With precautions.

    We cannot wait til the world has Zero Covid. It could be years, or it could be never. The travel and hospitality industries - and human nature - demand a rational response
    But most people will want to go to Spain or Greece, who won't be well vaccinated any time soon.
    Surely you go where you can. If Poland is freed up, you holiday on the Baltic.
    But most people will have already booked.
    Only a certifiable moron will have ALREADY booked a holiday abroad. The uncertainties are obvious
    And yet many many many people have done. Remember after the roadmap was announced by Boris, where he clearly said nothing certain, we need to monitor the situation, have a review before we can say anything about foreign holidays, and yet all the travel operators were buried under the weight of bookings come the next day.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,587
    "Heroes to zeros: how German perfectionism wrecked its Covid vaccine drive
    The same thoroughness that made Angela Merkel’s government a pandemic role model is now holding it back

    Philip Oltermann in Berlin"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/27/heroes-to-zeros-how-german-efficiency-wrecked-its-covid-vaccine-drive
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    These polls man...

    There is nothing complicated about it really. Two polls all in MoE change around the trend of ~5-6% Tory lead, which has been the case for the past couple of months.
    5 pount lead feels right to me, I think it will be a tie again soon
    Cancelling foreign summer holidays will definitely dent Tory number,. especially after showing all that leg about it being possible, and all the UK reasonable priced holidays will have been nabbed by now.
    Prediction: they won't cancel foreign holidays. There will be corridors and traffic lights.

    And rightly so. If there are two countries well vaxxed, with minimum infection, let them travel to each other. With precautions.

    We cannot wait til the world has Zero Covid. It could be years, or it could be never. The travel and hospitality industries - and human nature - demand a rational response
    But most people will want to go to Spain or Greece, who won't be well vaccinated any time soon.
    Surely you go where you can. If Poland is freed up, you holiday on the Baltic.
    But most people will have already booked.
    Only a certifiable moron will have ALREADY booked a holiday abroad. The uncertainties are obvious
    Hmm - People will have holiday credits from ages back though
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052

    Leon said:

    An example of why we should allow limited travel

    Portugal

    It has had a tough time. For a short while it experienced the worst Covid rates in the world, I believe

    Today it reports 344 cases and 8 new deaths.

    Now, Portugal is a small country. Just 10m people.

    But 344 cases and 8 deaths is TINY even in that context. And it is still falling. Covid is being cornered, if not eradicated.

    At the same time in a couple of months most of Britain will have been vaxxed.

    The Portuguese need our money, they want us to go there. We want to go there, to the sun.

    Life is not without risk. There will be some risk. But if Portugal agrees to bar flights from high risk countries like Brazil (if it continues to be so awful there) I cannot see a reason why we cannot holiday on the Algarve in July

    That's what people said last year.

    And those holidays led to covid being imported a second time.

    Given that you were earlier bewailing the threats to London as a tourist centre why do you now want to encourage people to go on holiday to Portugal rather than London ?
    What proportion of cases in autumn last year were imported and what proportion domestically generated?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,234
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Discounting employer pension contributions (add a further £9000) my income this financial year will be somewhere around £44,000.

    Which apparently puts me in the top 7% of earners in the country.

    It’s probably actually higher than that in terms of disposable income, as I live alone and in a very cheap area.

    I must admit a bit like Leon’s friend, I find it hard to get my head around that. I don’t feel like one of the wealthy elite - certainly I don’t think I live like them - but it does occur to me that I have more money than I need, a decent house and access to pretty much anything I want, and I seldom have to back off from a project on financial grounds. I think the only thing I’ve had to rethink is buying an electric car, and that wasn’t solely due to money.

    And however you look at it, that makes me pretty fortunate.
    I get quite angry at people who don't realise this basic truth. Most people don't earn large amounts, by definition. Median household income in the UK is around £28-30k

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyear2020#:~:text=Median income between the financial,on average 0.8% per year.

    That is enough for a decent life, of course, and we are a safe, wealthy country. But it means you don't have to go much higher than this to be obviously wealthy to MOST people, even if you don't feel it. Such as you

    Someone with a personal net income of £50k a year is RICH. They will furiously deny it, they certainly won't believe it. But they are. To most of the country
    Why do they deny it? Doesn't make sense to me.
    It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.

    The trouble is modern day Christians have turned the meaning of that line upside down.
    They interpret it as "we must stop people being poor".
    But the original meaning was "don't worry about being poor - you're going to heaven".
    It seems pretty clear to me that it means redistribution of wealth. The line occurs in this context (KJV):

    18 And a certain ruler asked him, saying, Good Master, what shall I do to inherit eternal life?

    19 And Jesus said unto him, Why callest thou me good? none is good, save one, that is, God.

    20 Thou knowest the commandments, Do not commit adultery, Do not kill, Do not steal, Do not bear false witness, Honour thy father and thy mother.

    21 And he said, All these have I kept from my youth up.

    22 Now when Jesus heard these things, he said unto him, Yet lackest thou one thing: sell all that thou hast, and distribute unto the poor, and thou shalt have treasure in heaven: and come, follow me.

    23 And when he heard this, he was very sorrowful: for he was very rich.

    24 And when Jesus saw that he was very sorrowful, he said, How hardly shall they that have riches enter into the kingdom of God!

    25 For it is easier for a camel to go through a needle's eye, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.

    So according to Jesus the virtuous thing is to give away all your wealth to the poor, thus making it much easier for you to achieve eternal bliss in heaven, but also much harder for them? Hmm...
    Yes, Jesus was often a little paradoxical. Nonetheless that is what he directed.

    Obviously the Queen and the CoE aren't so keen on that bit, so usually skip it.
    We're doing theology?

    Disagree somewhat with @Foxy . A touch too literalist for me, and ignoring the context in some measure. (And bear in mind that most of the "CofE Wealth" is actually a pension fund for 30k+ current and retired staff.)

    My take on "eye of the needle"

    1 - In Christian interpretation, we do not follow the 'original text' - as suggested above - from the OT on its own. One key point is that Christ - the Jewish Messiah - has come, and therefore there is a new context and new lens to look through.
    2 - Here "Eye of the Needle" is an aphorism from the Talmud (ancient Rabbinical teaching). It is used in an answer to a question from a 'rich young man' (or 'ruler') asking "How can I enter the Kingdom of Heaven?".
    3 - This is not about getting to sit on a white cloud when he dies (even if he thinks it is). "Kingdom of Heaven" is living according to his beliefs now - that is how the phrase tends to be used in the NT. See eg the Commandments as developed in the Sermon on the Mount; again - a new context.
    4 - IMO there are a couple of points in the story where it can be applied now - as we are a rich society in a materialist age. The questioner is being challenged on his weak point, which is his wealth - 'clear out the blockages and *follow me*'. And for wealthy here and now, it is very easy to get too used to being well-off. In a different individual the challenge might be get out of drugs, or similar. Another point is perhaps about priorities.
    5 - The "Camel through the Eye of a Needle" image is a startling aphorism to make it stick. And it works.
    6 - I'd note that "sell all you have and give to the poor" has I think inspired people such as St Francis of Assisi, and I have known 100k+ career inspired to become ministers or go into different careers for similar reasons.

    For me, now, in a time of Covid?

    I like NPXMP's sitting light to his 2%-er income, and that he has adopted a principle as a barrier against slipping from the principle.

    My income is down about 20% this year, which is manageable, and I have never reached the 100k - but I may soon. However I have friends who have lost houses and partners through enforced confinement or furlough, and loss of up to half of income. Obvs one does personal help etc. But if I finally get my - reasonably substantial at several 100k - Parent's Estate sorted this summer I will aim to fund a half-time "Covid Recovery" community worker for 12 months in a local community centre. That is something I am in a position to do.

    ISTM that a certain discipline or practice helps guard against forgetting how well off we are, and becoming complacent. One practical and simple place to start is to Gift Aid income over 100k because it is in Gordon's 60% marginal tax band.

    Thanks all for an interesting conversation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,587
    edited March 2021
    Maybe Salmond has already organised a sequence of defections to take place, every 2 to 3 days, to keep his new party in the news. Having them all happening at the same time would have less impact with the type of rolling coverage we have these days.

    It must be causing a lot of paranoia in the Sturgeon camp, wondering who's next.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe Salmond has already organised a sequence of defections to take place, every 2 to 3 days, to keep his new party in the news. Having them all happening at the same time would have less impact with the type of rolling news we have these days.

    Must be causing a lot of paranoia in the Sturgeon camp, wondering who's next.

    Yes, but the SNP have to trash everyone that leaves while trying to explain why they were golden pre-defection
  • Andy_JS said:

    Maybe Salmond has already organised a sequence of defections to take place, every 2 to 3 days, to keep his new party in the news. Having them all happening at the same time would have less impact with the type of rolling coverage we have these days.

    It must be causing a lot of paranoia in the Sturgeon camp, wondering who's next.

    He will almost certainly have done this, if he's managed to persuade quite a few to jump ship. SNP cages seem to be rattled, going by Twitter and the front pages of the Scottish papers tomorrow.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Hurrah. Good news for ROI, and the right thing to do.
    Why? They hate us. See ALL their media coverage of the UK since the Neolithic era.

    On the other hand, this will infuriate them AND humiliate them, so yeah, let's do it. But they won't thank us
    I don't think it's as simple as that. And I think they will be quietly thankful - I don't expect or want weeping and people strewing rose petals in Boris's path.

    It is also true that Britain as an entity has been responsible for a great deal of hardship in Ireland over the years, and whilst I don't hold any personal shame for that, this does feel like a bit of poetical restitution.
    To be honest, I think we were insanely fair on them during the Famine. It was their stupid choice to plant ONLY POTATOES

    Brilliant idea, not

    We should have just sealed off the whole island and left them to it, instead we charitably - without any thanks or honour - kept the vital channels of commerce open, so Ireland could continue to export wheat through Liverpool and Cardiff, earning much-needed foreign currency which enabled them to build evermore spectacular Famine memorials

    Note that Irish historians NEVER acknowledge this
    FFS over a million died, in what was then our own country. Not a joking matter.
    The population of Britain at that time was about 20 million.

    Its now over 60 million.

    The population of Ireland at that time was over 8 million.

    It is now less than 7 million.

    Ireland really had overbred itself way beyond economic sustainability.

    Mass emigration and a population crash was going to happen at some point.

    Because of the potato blight the time period it came in was compressed.
    Some of the population declines by Irish county are shocking:

    Cavan
    1841 243k
    2016 76k

    Leitrim
    1841 155k
    2016 32k

    Mayo
    1841 388k
    2016 130k

    Monaghan
    1841 200k
    2016 61k

    Roscommon
    1841 254k
    2016 64k

    I suppose a potato patch economy isn't suited to the modern world.

    But are there any equivalents elsewhere in Western Europe ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    PSA....clocks go forward...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    An example of why we should allow limited travel

    Portugal

    It has had a tough time. For a short while it experienced the worst Covid rates in the world, I believe

    Today it reports 344 cases and 8 new deaths.

    Now, Portugal is a small country. Just 10m people.

    But 344 cases and 8 deaths is TINY even in that context. And it is still falling. Covid is being cornered, if not eradicated.

    At the same time in a couple of months most of Britain will have been vaxxed.

    The Portuguese need our money, they want us to go there. We want to go there, to the sun.

    Life is not without risk. There will be some risk. But if Portugal agrees to bar flights from high risk countries like Brazil (if it continues to be so awful there) I cannot see a reason why we cannot holiday on the Algarve in July

    That's what people said last year.

    And those holidays led to covid being imported a second time.

    Given that you were earlier bewailing the threats to London as a tourist centre why do you now want to encourage people to go on holiday to Portugal rather than London ?
    What proportion of cases in autumn last year were imported and what proportion domestically generated?
    The importation of cases led to the domestic generation.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    isam said:

    He’s the Leader of the Labour Party
    Wahey!

    Good idea to get rid of Dodds. Bad idea to appoint her in the first place. Might be a bad look for the woke mob to replace her with a bloke so if it does happen what odds on a front bench return for Yvette Cooper I wonder.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Brom said:

    isam said:

    He’s the Leader of the Labour Party
    Wahey!

    Good idea to get rid of Dodds. Bad idea to appoint her in the first place. Might be a bad look for the woke mob to replace her with a bloke so if it does happen what odds on a front bench return for Yvette Cooper I wonder.
    Or Diane!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Neale Hanvey MP defects to Alba.
    The Scottish Change UK off to a flyer.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    isam said:

    Brom said:

    isam said:

    He’s the Leader of the Labour Party
    Wahey!

    Good idea to get rid of Dodds. Bad idea to appoint her in the first place. Might be a bad look for the woke mob to replace her with a bloke so if it does happen what odds on a front bench return for Yvette Cooper I wonder.
    Or Diane!
    We can dream! Rachel Reeves is the favourite which won’t be giving Rishi any sleepless nights I think it’s fair to say.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,234
    Brom said:

    isam said:

    Brom said:

    isam said:

    He’s the Leader of the Labour Party
    Wahey!

    Good idea to get rid of Dodds. Bad idea to appoint her in the first place. Might be a bad look for the woke mob to replace her with a bloke so if it does happen what odds on a front bench return for Yvette Cooper I wonder.
    Or Diane!
    We can dream! Rachel Reeves is the favourite which won’t be giving Rishi any sleepless nights I think it’s fair to say.
    No.

    Nadia.

    See how she addresses Bill Cash.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,548

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Hurrah. Good news for ROI, and the right thing to do.
    Why? They hate us. See ALL their media coverage of the UK since the Neolithic era.

    On the other hand, this will infuriate them AND humiliate them, so yeah, let's do it. But they won't thank us
    I don't think it's as simple as that. And I think they will be quietly thankful - I don't expect or want weeping and people strewing rose petals in Boris's path.

    It is also true that Britain as an entity has been responsible for a great deal of hardship in Ireland over the years, and whilst I don't hold any personal shame for that, this does feel like a bit of poetical restitution.
    To be honest, I think we were insanely fair on them during the Famine. It was their stupid choice to plant ONLY POTATOES

    Brilliant idea, not

    We should have just sealed off the whole island and left them to it, instead we charitably - without any thanks or honour - kept the vital channels of commerce open, so Ireland could continue to export wheat through Liverpool and Cardiff, earning much-needed foreign currency which enabled them to build evermore spectacular Famine memorials

    Note that Irish historians NEVER acknowledge this
    FFS over a million died, in what was then our own country. Not a joking matter.
    Ireland was invaded by Normans from England, so your statement that it was "... then our own country" is rather inaccurate. It was more like a possession or possibly a colony.
    His meaning seems pretty clear. Whatever the rights or wrongs of historical imperial associations, Ireland was part of the British State at the time and thus treating it well, and a lot better than it actually was, should not be presented as if it would be an act of charity. It should have been a given that it be treated well.

    I mean, your own statement about Normans from England seems pretty inaccurate, since why blame England at all if it was under the domination of an invading force?
    Well, Ireland was not invaded by Normans from Normandy. It was invaded by the Normans that went to England first and then expanded westward.

    That's like blaming the Poles for the German invasion of Russia.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,587
    "Why AstraZeneca is getting no thanks for vaccinating millions

    If the company had not committed to rolling out its vaccine at cost it could have made £21 billion. Instead its value has fallen by £27 billion" {£}

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-astrazeneca-is-getting-no-thanks-for-vaccinating-millions-8bmmgqjbz
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,234
    Prediction Game.

    How will Comical Dave react to the story of spare UK vaccines potentially going to the ROI?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2021
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I bet the Tories were gutted when Labour called out the protesting

    In this, the parties are always helped by the wilder backbenchers on the other side, who can be relied upon to say the 'right' thing (and who are usually amazingly lacking in self awareness of how much of a gift they are to the people they claim to despise), though its harder to present some of them as indicative of the mainstream. For Labour, that is definitely one of the values of Keir. If he doesn't parrot the same things as his wilder members, people will buy it.
    I’ve said this since day 1, the nutters just make it easy for Starmer to show he’s moderate. And in so doing they make themselves irrelevant.
    The thing for me is I think that the Corbyns, Sultanas, Burgons and such of the world think that the Tories hate them, and are very proud of that.

    When I'd think the situation is more that the Tories really dislike them, but also regard them as among the most useful and effective advocates of Toryism out there. Certainly more effective than most Tory MPs.

    Of course, they cannot nor should they simply shut up about their views and policies, and no party accepts that the other side is more popular than them (as, electorally, has been the case with the Tories for a while) and thus that their own position (in some matters) is less popular.

    But there has to be a place where you can pillory the other side without acting like you think they are the devil. Many people just voted for that devil, and might well regret it, but if only those beyond the pale would consider it? Well, you might hesitate to switch back.

    I look forward to seeing how the Tories sturggle with the same issues when they are next out of office, I was too young to enjoy their flailings post 97.
    We must be quite similar ages, then. I had thought you were quite a lot older, you certainly come across very mature in your postings.
    Oh, I'm quite a bit older I believe, I'm 34. But I didn't experience an epiphany around interest in politics until at least the mid 2000s.

    I had a lot of freetime in a do-nothing job placement at the time of the 2010 GE, left me time to stumble onto certain political blogs...
    You're not much older, I would rather not share my age though if that's alright.
    No need to share, the glory of the internet.

    Fortunately, I have always been a grumpy middle aged person in temperament so I feel like I'm growing into it.
    This conversation very much makes me feel like the foetus on this forum (being in my early 20s, fresh into the grad market), but the difference in views across generations on here is always fascinating.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    How did we know that it would be only a few hours before a new poll made the header look dumb?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Andy_JS said:
    What? Has she run off with some shadow cash?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    isam said:

    He’s the Leader of the Labour Party
    Razor sharp - love it!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Hurrah. Good news for ROI, and the right thing to do.
    Why? They hate us. See ALL their media coverage of the UK since the Neolithic era.

    On the other hand, this will infuriate them AND humiliate them, so yeah, let's do it. But they won't thank us
    I don't think it's as simple as that. And I think they will be quietly thankful - I don't expect or want weeping and people strewing rose petals in Boris's path.

    It is also true that Britain as an entity has been responsible for a great deal of hardship in Ireland over the years, and whilst I don't hold any personal shame for that, this does feel like a bit of poetical restitution.
    To be honest, I think we were insanely fair on them during the Famine. It was their stupid choice to plant ONLY POTATOES

    Brilliant idea, not

    We should have just sealed off the whole island and left them to it, instead we charitably - without any thanks or honour - kept the vital channels of commerce open, so Ireland could continue to export wheat through Liverpool and Cardiff, earning much-needed foreign currency which enabled them to build evermore spectacular Famine memorials

    Note that Irish historians NEVER acknowledge this
    FFS over a million died, in what was then our own country. Not a joking matter.
    Ireland was invaded by Normans from England, so your statement that it was "... then our own country" is rather inaccurate. It was more like a possession or possibly a colony.

    And the reason they grew potatoes was because you could grow twice as much crop with potatoes as opposed to the next best choice. And the absentee Lords gave each family so little land that even with potatoes they were at near starvation levels...
    In case you missed it before the Normans invaded Ireland they first invaded England - and committed genocide just as terrible as anything they inflicted on the Irish.

    If you want to moan about someone moan about the French. They are the root cause of all of this.
    While I am always happy to moan at the French, particularly after last Saturday’s train crash rugby match, I should point out the Normans were Danes who colonised an area of northern France.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Hurrah. Good news for ROI, and the right thing to do.
    Why? They hate us. See ALL their media coverage of the UK since the Neolithic era.

    On the other hand, this will infuriate them AND humiliate them, so yeah, let's do it. But they won't thank us
    I don't think it's as simple as that. And I think they will be quietly thankful - I don't expect or want weeping and people strewing rose petals in Boris's path.

    It is also true that Britain as an entity has been responsible for a great deal of hardship in Ireland over the years, and whilst I don't hold any personal shame for that, this does feel like a bit of poetical restitution.
    To be honest, I think we were insanely fair on them during the Famine. It was their stupid choice to plant ONLY POTATOES

    Brilliant idea, not

    We should have just sealed off the whole island and left them to it, instead we charitably - without any thanks or honour - kept the vital channels of commerce open, so Ireland could continue to export wheat through Liverpool and Cardiff, earning much-needed foreign currency which enabled them to build evermore spectacular Famine memorials

    Note that Irish historians NEVER acknowledge this
    FFS over a million died, in what was then our own country. Not a joking matter.
    Ireland was invaded by Normans from England, so your statement that it was "... then our own country" is rather inaccurate. It was more like a possession or possibly a colony.

    And the reason they grew potatoes was because you could grow twice as much crop with potatoes as opposed to the next best choice. And the absentee Lords gave each family so little land that even with potatoes they were at near starvation levels...
    Sure, Ireland became part of the United Kingdom by conquest in the 17th and earlier centuries, but in the time of the potato famine was legally part of the United Kingdom, MPs, taxes and all. The Westminster government completely failed to treat it as such.
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