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Tonight’s Opinium poll sees CON lead down 4% and Johnson’s approval down 6% – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 27 in General
Tonight’s Opinium poll sees CON lead down 4% and Johnson’s approval down 6% – politicalbetting.com

Tonight's Opninium sees CON lead down to 4%CON 41% -2LAB 37% =LD 6% =GRN 5% +1

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,855
    edited March 27
    I think the heading should be "down to 4%" - but the poll is an interesting confirmation of the trend recently. The pattern is consistently that the Tories get a temporary bounce when there's good news, and it then drifts down again.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,968
    Really cannot see how the tories can win Hartlepool on this type of polling - had a ton on Labour
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,328
    edited March 27
    The big difference is always the Labour score. Since Christmas, Tories consistently more than 40, Labour's has been anyway from low to high 30s.

    The pb golden rule used to be take the lowest Labour score, but not sure that holds since Corbyn got elected.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,638
    Typical mid term result

    Or

    Cf Churchill 1945. Base ingratitude.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,374

    Really cannot see how the tories can win Hartlepool on this type of polling - had a ton on Labour

    If the swing is happening mainly in middle-class areas the Tories may still have an outside chance in Hartlepool. I think Labour will hold it with a reduced majority.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,968
    Its shocking that the lib dems can be on 6% after the year we have had- If you think of all the authoritarian state nannying we have had and all the lib dems can do (until very recently ) is agree with it
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,058
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,279
    Evening all :)

    I suspect each of the stages of "freedom" as the Daily Mail put it in its usual hyperbolic style will see a boost for the Conservatives and the Government.

    The Mail this morning told me it was "Freedom Monday" - to be honest, I can't see how anything will change very much for most people. The easing of restrictions on April 12th and May 17th will be of much greater significance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,328

    Its shocking that the lib dems can be on 6% after the year we have had- If you think of all the authoritarian state nannying we have had and all the lib dems can do (until very recently ) is agree with it

    They get no coverage though. The news is dominated by Boris saying something and then Starmer giving a response.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,968

    Its shocking that the lib dems can be on 6% after the year we have had- If you think of all the authoritarian state nannying we have had and all the lib dems can do (until very recently ) is agree with it

    They get no coverage though. The news is dominated by Boris saying something and then Starmer giving a response.
    ~They would have got more coverage if they opposed lockdowns
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,374

    Its shocking that the lib dems can be on 6% after the year we have had- If you think of all the authoritarian state nannying we have had and all the lib dems can do (until very recently ) is agree with it

    They get no coverage though. The news is dominated by Boris saying something and then Starmer giving a response.
    ~They would have got more coverage if they opposed lockdowns
    They ought to be on at least 15%. But they haven't been very liberal, as you say.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    Andy_JS said:

    Really cannot see how the tories can win Hartlepool on this type of polling - had a ton on Labour

    If the swing is happening mainly in middle-class areas the Tories may still have an outside chance in Hartlepool. I think Labour will hold it with a reduced majority.
    I'm down already as guessing a Labour majority of 2,000 on a turnout of around 30%, and I'd stick with that whether the polls were level pegging or had the Tories 10pts ahead. Local circumstances prevail.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,204
    Just wait till the pubs open, Mike :smile:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218
    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,055
    Floater said:
    When does her trial start?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,374
    edited March 27
    Floater said:
    The vote in the Commons the other day was one of the strangest of all time in terms of who voted No. It was a combination of Labour left-wingers and Tory right-wingers. Diane Abbott and John Redwood. Richard Burgon and Steve Baker. Jeremy Corbyn and Andrew Rosindell. And so on.

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2021-03-25/division/7599821D-1E4C-47CD-A9CC-CB7D40185AFA/Coronavirus?outputType=Names
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,037
    ON topic I just made a fairly authentic Singapore chicken laksa

    OMFG

    They are going to destroy us. Their food is better, their toilets are better, they aren't obese, they don't die of Covid

    We are doomed
  • Labour is making all the right moves and Keir is asserting himself intelligently once again. Defence is a great avenue to go down.

    Labour will lead polls again soon IMHO
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,968
    edited March 27
    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    because the public sector has gone from employing the working class (1970s) to a load of "generalists" who all think communication and optics is all they need to do - generally middle class and usually upper middle class . The working class are in the private sector now and the public sector (or third sector) is all about spending money proving how woke you are
  • Decent chance Labour holds Hartlepool?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,605

    ydoethur said:

    I have a quiz in about 20 minutes - I have a set of geography questions, but as ever, any more fun ones from you guys would be most appreciated if any spring to mind!

    Who was the last Prince of Wales to be born in Wales?

    Answer - Henry V, victor of Agincourt.

    Who was the first Prince of Whales?

    And who did he kill ?
    The Prince of Whales was Fatty Arbuckle, and his career ended after the scandal surrounding the death of Virginia Rappe.

    Trump of course famously tweeted he had met the Prince of Whales.

    I think the title 'Prince of Whales' should certainly replace 'Prince of Wales'.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 687

    Decent chance Labour holds Hartlepool?

    Absolutely certain LAB hold Hartlepool.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,204
    edited March 27

    ydoethur said:

    I have a quiz in about 20 minutes - I have a set of geography questions, but as ever, any more fun ones from you guys would be most appreciated if any spring to mind!

    Who was the last Prince of Wales to be born in Wales?

    Answer - Henry V, victor of Agincourt.

    Who was the first Prince of Whales?

    And who did he kill ?
    The Prince of Whales was Fatty Arbuckle, and his career ended after the scandal surrounding the death of Virginia Rappe.

    Trump of course famously tweeted he had met the Prince of Whales.

    I think the title 'Prince of Whales' should certainly replace 'Prince of Wales'.
    Looks like Charles is fully on board already!

    https://twitter.com/Charles_HRH/status/1139164300378091520
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,054
    edited March 27


    IshmaelZ said:

    Typical mid term result

    Or

    Cf Churchill 1945. Base ingratitude.

    Or maybe Johnson and Patel are crap and after the recent excitement people are noticing?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,374

    Decent chance Labour holds Hartlepool?

    Absolutely certain LAB hold Hartlepool.
    Based on? Did you see the constituency poll the other day.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 687
    Floater said:
    Ordinary voters see LAB is stuffed with this sort of people.

    Long wait to No 10 Keir!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,279

    Just wait till the pubs open, Mike :smile:

    Yes, Labour will be 15 points ahead :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    So we have another data point - which leads to question/discussion

    Are poll aggregators a good or bad thing in general?

    https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

    For example.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,328
    edited March 27
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,957
    All still consistent with Tory 42 Labour 36, as has been the case for a few weeks.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,478
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    I am not sure anything has changed much to be honest

    Cons +40
    Labour +35
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790
    Doesn't Mr Smithson Iike Boris?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,279
    Andy_JS said:


    The vote in the Commons the other day was one of the strangest of all time in terms of who voted No. It was a combination of Labour left-wingers and Tory right-wingers. Diane Abbott and John Redwood. Richard Burgon and Steve Baker. Jeremy Corbyn and Andrew Rosindell. And so on.

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2021-03-25/division/7599821D-1E4C-47CD-A9CC-CB7D40185AFA/Coronavirus?outputType=Names

    Don't forget the LDs were there as well so you had the likes of Corbyn, Redwood, Davey, Moran, Chope and Abbott all in the same lobby.

    A Government "of all the talents" in waiting if there ever was one.

    I won't say this often but kudos to the Conservative and Labour "rebels" on this one - I don't normally agree with them but on this issue I applaud them all.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337
    Vaccine delay un bounce still to come too just as postals go out

    exciting LE night could yet be on the cards for Lab.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    22s
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (-2)
    LAB: 37% (-)
    GRN: 6% (+2)
    LDEM: 6% (-)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 25 - 26 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 12 Mar
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    edited March 27
    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    We know their views changed because in 2017 it was many of these people who got outraged at the idea that some of this unearned wealth might be used to pay for care home fees and not passed to them as inheritance. There were enough of them on here.

    Or see the response of people on over £50K at the loss of child benefit a few years earlier.

    Or before that very wealthy people horrified at the very idea that they might not get an unlimited tax break when they gave money to charity.

    Guilt is not the feeling they suffer from. But selfishness.
    Which in turn is based on the high property prices that many people are dealing with.

    The selfish, hidden secret is that they are hoping that Grannies house will pay off *their* mortgage.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 687
    Andy_JS said:

    Decent chance Labour holds Hartlepool?

    Absolutely certain LAB hold Hartlepool.
    Based on? Did you see the constituency poll the other day.
    Yes. I don't tend to take much notice of constituency polls.

    Voters in general won't be that interested. Con haven't won there since 1959. Enough residual Lab support to get them over the line.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    Its shocking that the lib dems can be on 6% after the year we have had- If you think of all the authoritarian state nannying we have had and all the lib dems can do (until very recently) is agree with it

    The Lib Dems have been down to bedrock support since about 2011, save for the period of convulsion during 2019 when we had Change UK, the Brexit Party, the fall of Theresa May and the denouement of the Parliamentary shenanigans. What modest bounce they managed actually to carry into the 2019 GE courtesy of their Remainer fundamentalism rapidly dissipated after it.

    Why we should be expecting them to be doing any better right now is beyond me. They have an anonymous leader who gets very little air time, in charge of a party with no more than a vaguely discernible philosophy, and no policy platform whatever known to anyone outside of their own ranks. Their main priority seems to be avoiding their own extinction.

    This is unlikely to improve in the near future. There's only so much mileage to be had in being a continuity Europhile party for a handful of wealthy enclaves in SE England, allied to a niche Scottish unionist party for wet centrists.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337

    Decent chance Labour holds Hartlepool?

    Should do but Candidate will be a drag IMO
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790

    I think the heading should be "down to 4%" - but the poll is an interesting confirmation of the trend recently. The pattern is consistently that the Tories get a temporary bounce when there's good news, and it then drifts down again.

    Starmer is far too dull to get a bounce.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790

    Andy_JS said:

    Decent chance Labour holds Hartlepool?

    Absolutely certain LAB hold Hartlepool.
    Based on? Did you see the constituency poll the other day.
    Yes. I don't tend to take much notice of constituency polls.

    Voters in general won't be that interested. Con haven't won there since 1959. Enough residual Lab support to get them over the line.
    If they turn out to vote...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 687
    stodge said:

    Just wait till the pubs open, Mike :smile:

    Yes, Labour will be 15 points ahead :)
    Only if we have vaccine passports to get in the pub! 😠
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide :lol:
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    Andy_JS said:

    Decent chance Labour holds Hartlepool?

    Absolutely certain LAB hold Hartlepool.
    Based on? Did you see the constituency poll the other day.
    That was not a constituency poll - but MRP extrapolation from a survey of Northern seats.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    edited March 27
    And why has the -2 gone to Greens and not Labour

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1375902519386341384?s=19
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,328
    edited March 27

    I think the heading should be "down to 4%" - but the poll is an interesting confirmation of the trend recently. The pattern is consistently that the Tories get a temporary bounce when there's good news, and it then drifts down again.

    Except this isn't true.....look at the smoothed national voting intention. there is no bounce / unbounce pattern at all. Tories steadily lost vote share since the GE, Labour picked up, it then stabilised at about even for 3-4 months, and then since Christmas, Tories opened up a gap which at the moment loads steady (maybe in 1 point).

    https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
    Your regular reminder that the typical voter's definition of 'the rich' is either:

    (a) Richard Branson, Roman Abramovich, various oil sheikhs etc, all of whom should be made to give at least 95% of it to the NHS immediately
    OR
    (b) Anybody who earns at least £1 per year more than I do
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    edited March 27

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
    The definition of "rich" has been tested with polling I believe. And produced actual results.....

    It's someone who earns 3-4 times more than the person you ask.

    So in the case you mention - they will be going on about the barstewards on £500K
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,037

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
    I have a friend, about 40 years old, who constantly rants about the "evil rich Tories". Endless screeds, he sometimes sends me them. and I politely ignore them. Let's call him X.

    I'm in a kind of friendship triangle (we used to go abroad together as a team) with him and another guy. 3rd guy. Let's call him Y

    3rd guy is proper working class, very poor background, worked hard in the arts, now has a decent life, but he knows what it is like to be really poor. No central heating, worrying about the weekly shop, crap food all the time. He doesn't own, he rents, for his family, in his 40s

    Friend X has a millionaire mother, is single, and has just sold his flat in Battersea for about half a million. Just sitting in the bank. Half a mill. Age 40

    X genuinely seems to have no idea that, by most standards, he is obviously wealthy. Half a million in the bank and a job that still pays nicely (even if it has been threatened by Covid).

    When we go out as a trio, and X rants about "rich evil Tories", I sometimes have to restrain friend Y from strangling friend X
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    Mike's calculation of swing since 2019 is not quite correct. The Tories won the GE across GB by 11.6% so Opinium's 4% lead represents a swing from Con to Lab of 3.8% . On a UNS basis Labour would gain 38 Tory seats.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    And why has the -2 gone to Greens and not Labour

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1375902519386341384?s=19

    Noise, churn, margin of error, etc etc. Who knows?

    Anyway, trends might possibly tell you something. Individual results in isolation aren't much good for anything.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    And why has the -2 gone to Greens and not Labour

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1375902519386341384?s=19

    Churn? Corbynistas defecting to the True Believers balanced by middle class types flocking to, well, flirting with Starmer?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,605
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
    These days they care more for the Wokers than the Workers.
    That is so good. It is going to get nicked.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,328
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
    These days they care more for the Wokers than the Workers.
    Coming to a PMQs shortly...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
    These days they care more for the Wokers than the Workers.
    That is so good. It is going to get nicked.
    Well, we all know I am a Class act.

    I thank you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
    These days they care more for the Wokers than the Workers.
    Coming to a PMQs shortly...
    Is that bugger Hyufd around trying to nick my ideas to get himself a cushy seat somewhere?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
    These days they care more for the Wokers than the Workers.
    That is so good. It is going to get nicked.
    Back during Peak Corbyn I had a discussion with a Corbynite - who was of the opinion that everyone with a "proper job" was a F^&king Tory.

    His theory was that the future of progressives was in the oncoming AI revolution - that the real masses were those not working, and that they would expand massively.

    While he didn't say it (or I think mean it), it did give me a vision of a combination of the masses from the estates plus the Its Grim Up North London In Our Inherited Town Houses brigade.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,037

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
    The definition of "rich" has been tested with polling I believe. And produced actual results.....

    It's someone who earns 3-4 times more than the person you ask.

    So in the case you mention - they will be going on about the barstewards on £500K
    Also, lots of upper middle class rich people tend to mix with other upper middle class rich people. It's human nature

    So they often encounter people who are much richer than them, so they feel kind of average, even tho they might have a net worth of £500k-£1m and be earning, as a couple, £100-150k a year

    That puts them in the top 1-2% of the country but they will feel "quite ordinary middle class" because they see others with SO much more, very frequently

    I am affluent. Decidedly so, by average British standards. But when my friend bought a private jet for $57m I thought "basically, I'm skint, I'm practically Oliver Twist"

    Tis only natural
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
    These days they care more for the Wokers than the Workers.
    That is so good. It is going to get nicked.
    Back during Peak Corbyn I had a discussion with a Corbynite - who was of the opinion that everyone with a "proper job" was a F^&king Tory.

    His theory was that the future of progressives was in the oncoming AI revolution - that the real masses were those not working, and that they would expand massively.

    While he didn't say it (or I think mean it), it did give me a vision of a combination of the masses from the estates plus the Its Grim Up North London In Our Inherited Town Houses brigade.
    Are you sure it wasn’t Aaron Bastani in a face mask?

    Or was it just someone who had read his rather silly book?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,865

    Its shocking that the lib dems can be on 6% after the year we have had- If you think of all the authoritarian state nannying we have had and all the lib dems can do (until very recently ) is agree with it

    Sarah Olney, LibDem MP Richmond Park said to me in a recent email:
    Yesterday in Parliament I voted against extending the Coronavirus Act for a further six months. Along with all of my Liberal Democrat colleagues I opposed this Act on the basis that the Government hasn't shown that they need the powers it contains anymore, and neither Parliamentary scrutiny nor civil liberties should be be relinquished lightly. We continue to support all necessary measures to contain the spread of the virus and assist individuals and businesses. However, none of these measures relies on the passage of this bill.


    Disappointingly, the Bill was supported by Labour as well as the Conservatives and it passed despite our opposition.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
    These days they care more for the Wokers than the Workers.
    Coming to a PMQs shortly...
    It cries out out for a T-shirt with the "r" removed with pseudo graffiti/protest painting over...
  • I wonder how rich the average PB poster is
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
    The definition of "rich" has been tested with polling I believe. And produced actual results.....

    It's someone who earns 3-4 times more than the person you ask.

    So in the case you mention - they will be going on about the barstewards on £500K
    Also, lots of upper middle class rich people tend to mix with other upper middle class rich people. It's human nature

    So they often encounter people who are much richer than them, so they feel kind of average, even tho they might have a net worth of £500k-£1m and be earning, as a couple, £100-150k a year

    That puts them in the top 1-2% of the country but they will feel "quite ordinary middle class" because they see others with SO much more, very frequently

    I am affluent. Decidedly so, by average British standards. But when my friend bought a private jet for $57m I thought "basically, I'm skint, I'm practically Oliver Twist"

    Tis only natural
    How do you get rich by knapping flints?

    Or did you inherit some money from, say, a past life? Ummm, I meant ancestor.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
    These days they care more for the Wokers than the Workers.
    That is so good. It is going to get nicked.
    Back during Peak Corbyn I had a discussion with a Corbynite - who was of the opinion that everyone with a "proper job" was a F^&king Tory.

    His theory was that the future of progressives was in the oncoming AI revolution - that the real masses were those not working, and that they would expand massively.

    While he didn't say it (or I think mean it), it did give me a vision of a combination of the masses from the estates plus the Its Grim Up North London In Our Inherited Town Houses brigade.
    Are you sure it wasn’t Aaron Bastani in a face mask?

    Or was it just someone who had read his rather silly book?
    The "AI will makes us all into poor, jobless serfs" thing is common on the techno-hard-left, I believe. Where is it seen as being the "contradiction of Capitalism" that will bring the whole thing down.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,037
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
    The definition of "rich" has been tested with polling I believe. And produced actual results.....

    It's someone who earns 3-4 times more than the person you ask.

    So in the case you mention - they will be going on about the barstewards on £500K
    Also, lots of upper middle class rich people tend to mix with other upper middle class rich people. It's human nature

    So they often encounter people who are much richer than them, so they feel kind of average, even tho they might have a net worth of £500k-£1m and be earning, as a couple, £100-150k a year

    That puts them in the top 1-2% of the country but they will feel "quite ordinary middle class" because they see others with SO much more, very frequently

    I am affluent. Decidedly so, by average British standards. But when my friend bought a private jet for $57m I thought "basically, I'm skint, I'm practically Oliver Twist"

    Tis only natural
    How do you get rich by knapping flints?

    Or did you inherit some money from, say, a past life? Ummm, I meant ancestor.
    No one ever lost money guaranteeing orgasms
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
    The definition of "rich" has been tested with polling I believe. And produced actual results.....

    It's someone who earns 3-4 times more than the person you ask.

    So in the case you mention - they will be going on about the barstewards on £500K
    Also, lots of upper middle class rich people tend to mix with other upper middle class rich people. It's human nature

    So they often encounter people who are much richer than them, so they feel kind of average, even tho they might have a net worth of £500k-£1m and be earning, as a couple, £100-150k a year

    That puts them in the top 1-2% of the country but they will feel "quite ordinary middle class" because they see others with SO much more, very frequently

    I am affluent. Decidedly so, by average British standards. But when my friend bought a private jet for $57m I thought "basically, I'm skint, I'm practically Oliver Twist"

    Tis only natural
    How do you get rich by knapping flints?

    Or did you inherit some money from, say, a past life? Ummm, I meant ancestor.
    One of the advantages of being so many people, is the multiple incomes...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplicity_(film)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,753
    Floater said:
    Bit crass to say so, but it is true.

    Ultimately all order in society is by threat of violence, and the police are the sharp end of that.

    It is why policing needs to be by consent, and in turn for the laws to have widespread support. When communities feel that the laws are unfair, the police are seen as an oppressive occupying force. There are plenty of examples in British history.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337
    Did Mike mention not all good news for SKS

    https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1375905606045999111/photo/1
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    Or if the Labour Party was to do something totally outrageous. Like representing the interests of the Working Class.
    These days they care more for the Wokers than the Workers.
    That is so good. It is going to get nicked.
    Well, we all know I am a Class act.

    I thank you.
    You need to be taught a lesson in humility!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,933
    Turkeys. Xmas. :D:D

    "... Another returning at Malaga airport today was Shaun Cromber who despite voting for Britain to leave the EU, didn’t believe it would end his Spanish lifestyle, he said: ” Yes I voted out, but I didn’t realise it would come to this, my application has been rejected and we are on our way home – the wife is in tears, she’s distraught if I’m honest and I’m not too happy at the prospect of returning back to the UK. ..."

    https://global247news.com/2021/03/26/tears-flow-for-brits-as-they-head-home-to-avoid-being-deported-as-illegals-in-spain/amp/
  • Oh goody, it's that Twitter account again. They blocked me when I mentioned subsamples being inaccurate
  • I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Being a working class kid I was told that it is gauche to talk about money.
  • They also decided they would re-weight polls during GE19, they are not to be trusted
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    A lot richer if you count all Sean Ts profiles in the average
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,037

    Turkeys. Xmas. :D:D

    "... Another returning at Malaga airport today was Shaun Cromber who despite voting for Britain to leave the EU, didn’t believe it would end his Spanish lifestyle, he said: ” Yes I voted out, but I didn’t realise it would come to this, my application has been rejected and we are on our way home – the wife is in tears, she’s distraught if I’m honest and I’m not too happy at the prospect of returning back to the UK. ..."

    https://global247news.com/2021/03/26/tears-flow-for-brits-as-they-head-home-to-avoid-being-deported-as-illegals-in-spain/amp/

    A bunch of tax dodgers and crooks having a hard time?


    "it was so easy before, get your funds in from the UK, do a bit of cash in hand around the likes of Benidorm and bob was your uncle, but that’s all changed now – hey, don’t be fooled thousands of Brits in some guise or other have been doing the same thing, especially in the entertainment industry!"



    I may have lost my nano-violin with which to lament their troubles
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,865
    Latest EMA gives the Tories a 6% lead and an overall majority of 30.


  • PhilPhil Posts: 455

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Skewed somewhat by a few oddballs I imagine! I suspect the median PB poster is still considerably wealthier than the median UK earner even so.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,037
    Phil said:

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Skewed somewhat by a few oddballs I imagine! I suspect the median PB poster is still considerably wealthier than the median UK earner even so.
    What surprises me is the number of PBers with actual £200k supercars
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited March 27

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Discounting employer pension contributions (add a further £9000) my income this financial year will be somewhere around £44,000.

    Which apparently puts me in the top 7% of earners in the country.

    It’s probably actually higher than that in terms of disposable income, as I live alone and in a very cheap area.

    I must admit a bit like Leon’s friend, I find it hard to get my head around that. I don’t feel like one of the wealthy elite - certainly I don’t think I live like them - but it does occur to me that I have more money than I need, a decent house and access to pretty much anything I want, and I seldom have to back off from a project on financial grounds. I think the only thing I’ve had to rethink is buying an electric car, and that wasn’t solely due to money.

    And however you look at it, that makes me pretty fortunate.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    edited March 27
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
    The definition of "rich" has been tested with polling I believe. And produced actual results.....

    It's someone who earns 3-4 times more than the person you ask.

    So in the case you mention - they will be going on about the barstewards on £500K
    Also, lots of upper middle class rich people tend to mix with other upper middle class rich people. It's human nature

    So they often encounter people who are much richer than them, so they feel kind of average, even tho they might have a net worth of £500k-£1m and be earning, as a couple, £100-150k a year

    That puts them in the top 1-2% of the country but they will feel "quite ordinary middle class" because they see others with SO much more, very frequently

    I am affluent. Decidedly so, by average British standards. But when my friend bought a private jet for $57m I thought "basically, I'm skint, I'm practically Oliver Twist"

    Tis only natural
    How do you get rich by knapping flints?

    Or did you inherit some money from, say, a past life? Ummm, I meant ancestor.
    No one ever lost money guaranteeing orgasms
    Due to having fessed up to suffering from excessive boredom during Lockdown, PB's resident flint-knapper @Leon was commissioned by CCHQ to knap the perfect sculpture of Boris Johnson! Finally able to take a break from knapping strangely shaped sex-toys, he accepted the work in a heatbeat, and got to sculpting the same day. Arduous work, but he felt that, over the course of several weeks of almost continuous knapping, that he got it almost completely spot on with just a little bit more required.

    However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!

    "Why?" asked @Leon on the phone incredulously.

    "Simple!" Boris's underling replied. "You're not entitled to any..." He paused for effect. "...Statue-Tory Sick Pay!"

    I thank you! :lol:
  • "Which, if any, of the following people do you think would be the best prime minister?"

    Boris Johnson: 33% (-4)
    Keir Starmer: 27% (+2)

    Via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 25-26 March (+/- since 11-12 March)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Sunil, there is such a thing as repeating a joke too often.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,374
    edited March 27
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most governments would settle for a 4% lead, a year and a half after the last election.

    FPT, Bristol West is a great example of the shifts that have taken place among urban upper middle class voters. Other seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Leeds NE and NW, Manchester Withington, Exeter show the same shift. I'd be interested for views as to why upper middle class voters in big cities have become very left wing (even as voters elsewhere have shifted right).

    Guilt, and property values, and they are related

    If you own a nice house in a nice part of a big UK city, you have enjoyed a huge capital boost from rising house prices over the last decades (and you may have benefited from your parents' houses doing the same, which you have inherited)

    This is unearned wealth. You did nothing to deserve this lottery win. You were just lucky. Unearned luck creates guilt, especially when you see the younger generation struggling to buy, with worse jobs and prospects

    This is why self-made people are often happily and openly right wing, they didn't luck out (in their eyes) they EARNED the fortune, so Labour and the taxman can take a hike

    Also, we have not had a majorly confiscatory leftwing UK government for a long while. One that might lift top tax rates to 60-70%, impose a wealth tax, and so on. So the upper middle feels invulnerable and able to virtuously vote left. The Commies will never arrive

    Views would rapidly change in the urbanite metropolitans if a Corbynite party ever came to power
    I find there is also often a strange delusion of "we aren't actually very rich" mentality, because we only have the cars on finance and thus any talk of soak the rich is well that's not us obviously, we only have a household income of £100-150k+ a year.
    The definition of "rich" has been tested with polling I believe. And produced actual results.....

    It's someone who earns 3-4 times more than the person you ask.

    So in the case you mention - they will be going on about the barstewards on £500K
    Also, lots of upper middle class rich people tend to mix with other upper middle class rich people. It's human nature

    So they often encounter people who are much richer than them, so they feel kind of average, even tho they might have a net worth of £500k-£1m and be earning, as a couple, £100-150k a year

    That puts them in the top 1-2% of the country but they will feel "quite ordinary middle class" because they see others with SO much more, very frequently

    I am affluent. Decidedly so, by average British standards. But when my friend bought a private jet for $57m I thought "basically, I'm skint, I'm practically Oliver Twist"

    Tis only natural
    By the same token, if you're about average in terms of wealth/income and choose to live somewhere like rural Wales, you're going to feel pretty well-off compared to most people in that area.
  • ydoethur said:

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Discounting employer pension contributions (add a further £9000) my income this financial year will be somewhere around £44,000.

    Which apparently puts me in the top 7% of earners in the country.

    It’s probably actually higher than that in terms of disposable income, as I live alone and in a very cheap area.

    I must admit a bit like Leon’s friend, I find it hard to get my head around that. I don’t feel like one of the wealthy elite - certainly I don’t think I live like them - but it does occur to me that I have more money than I need, a decent house and access to pretty much anything I want, and I seldom have to back off from a project on financial grounds. I think the only thing I’ve had to rethink is buying an electric car, and that wasn’t solely due to money.

    And however you look at it, that makes me pretty fortunate.
    I was thinking the other day, if I am able to ever afford a house, I won't need to really earn any more money to be pretty much set for life. I've saved money over a longish period, I have a good, steady, job. My money is just lost on rent payments at the moment.

    Would I really live any differently, earning double? I highly doubt it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,753
    Phil said:

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Skewed somewhat by a few oddballs I imagine! I suspect the median PB poster is still considerably wealthier than the median UK earner even so.
    Probably simpler to list the PBers with incomes below the median. A pretty short list I expect, probably mostly pensioners.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    ydoethur said:

    Sunil, there is such a thing as repeating a joke too often.

    Um, I was "triggered" by the mention of "flint-knapping" :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    ydoethur said:

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Discounting employer pension contributions (add a further £9000) my income this financial year will be somewhere around £44,000.

    Which apparently puts me in the top 7% of earners in the country.

    It’s probably actually higher than that in terms of disposable income, as I live alone and in a very cheap area.

    I must admit a bit like Leon’s friend, I find it hard to get my head around that. I don’t feel like one of the wealthy elite - certainly I don’t think I live like them - but it does occur to me that I have more money than I need, a decent house and access to pretty much anything I want, and I seldom have to back off from a project on financial grounds. I think the only thing I’ve had to rethink is buying an electric car, and that wasn’t solely due to money.

    And however you look at it, that makes me pretty fortunate.
    The number of people who think of themselves as rich is quite small.

    I recall sitting in a community workshop, having a beer after setting up a new lathe. About half of the people there were young city types, plus students and some older types...

    A couple of the younger ones were going on about "The Man".

    They were a bit shocked when a friend of mine pointed out - "You are The Man".

    Working in IT/Finance, good money, in the top 10% of earners, On Their Way.

    They had no idea......
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,055
    ydoethur said:

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Discounting employer pension contributions (add a further £9000) my income this financial year will be somewhere around £44,000.

    Which apparently puts me in the top 7% of earners in the country.

    It’s probably actually higher than that in terms of disposable income, as I live alone and in a very cheap area.

    I must admit a bit like Leon’s friend, I find it hard to get my head around that. I don’t feel like one of the wealthy elite - certainly I don’t think I live like them - but it does occur to me that I have more money than I need, a decent house and access to pretty much anything I want, and I seldom have to back off from a project on financial grounds. I think the only thing I’ve had to rethink is buying an electric car, and that wasn’t solely due to money.

    And however you look at it, that makes me pretty fortunate.
    There are a couple of things, I think. Firstly, if you work with people who mostly earn more than you, that can make you feel poorer even though relative to the general population you may be fairly well off. This is especially true in London.

    Secondly, it's a lot easier to spot the wealth (possessions etc.) of others rather than the poverty of others.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    ydoethur said:

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Discounting employer pension contributions (add a further £9000) my income this financial year will be somewhere around £44,000.

    Which apparently puts me in the top 7% of earners in the country.

    It’s probably actually higher than that in terms of disposable income, as I live alone and in a very cheap area.

    I must admit a bit like Leon’s friend, I find it hard to get my head around that. I don’t feel like one of the wealthy elite - certainly I don’t think I live like them - but it does occur to me that I have more money than I need, a decent house and access to pretty much anything I want, and I seldom have to back off from a project on financial grounds. I think the only thing I’ve had to rethink is buying an electric car, and that wasn’t solely due to money.

    And however you look at it, that makes me pretty fortunate.
    I was thinking the other day, if I am able to ever afford a house, I won't need to really earn any more money to be pretty much set for life. I've saved money over a longish period, I have a good, steady, job. My money is just lost on rent payments at the moment.

    Would I really live any differently, earning double? I highly doubt it.
    Yes, you probably would. Unless it doubled overnight. You would simply absorb the extra and spend it on a higher living standard. Slowly and gently move upwards....

    It is rare to the point of non-existence to find someone who earns £100K and lives as if he/she was on 50k and puts the rest in the bank/gives it to charity.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    edited March 27
    Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA gives the Tories a 6% lead and an overall majority of 30.


    Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA gives the Tories a 6% lead and an overall majority of 30.


    That table is showing a Tory lead of 5.8% - a swing to Labour of 2.9% since December 2019. On the basis of UNS , it implies 28 Labour gains. The LD figure - 6.9% - implies a swing to Con from LD of circa 1.6%. On a UNS basis , no LD seats would fall - Tim Farron would just squeak home in Westmoreland. Tory majority would be circa 20 - depending on performance in seats held in Scotland.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 5,378
    It's been news for a few hours. Sturgeon trying to undermine Salmond will be her undoing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,037
    ydoethur said:

    I wonder how rich the average PB poster is

    Discounting employer pension contributions (add a further £9000) my income this financial year will be somewhere around £44,000.

    Which apparently puts me in the top 7% of earners in the country.

    It’s probably actually higher than that in terms of disposable income, as I live alone and in a very cheap area.

    I must admit a bit like Leon’s friend, I find it hard to get my head around that. I don’t feel like one of the wealthy elite - certainly I don’t think I live like them - but it does occur to me that I have more money than I need, a decent house and access to pretty much anything I want, and I seldom have to back off from a project on financial grounds. I think the only thing I’ve had to rethink is buying an electric car, and that wasn’t solely due to money.

    And however you look at it, that makes me pretty fortunate.
    I get quite angry at people who don't realise this basic truth. Most people don't earn large amounts, by definition. Median household income in the UK is around £28-30k

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyear2020#:~:text=Median income between the financial,on average 0.8% per year.

    That is enough for a decent life, of course, and we are a safe, wealthy country. But it means you don't have to go much higher than this to be obviously wealthy to MOST people, even if you don't feel it. Such as you

    Someone with a personal net income of £50k a year is RICH. They will furiously deny it, they certainly won't believe it. But they are. To most of the country
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,328
    edited March 27
    Germany woefully behind with COVID vaccinations, and shortages only small part of an "unbelievable" problem...

    Dr. Joachim Wunderlich, a cardiologist who has helped staff a local vaccination center in Berlin, told CBS News that the bureaucratic process for people to get vaccinated in Germany was "unbelievable," and the amount of paperwork involved, "insane."

    "You can't expect an over-80-year-old to fill out 10 pages and numerous consent forms and ask them to call a hotline to make an appointment," he said. "And then they risk being turned away because they forgot some forms at home."

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/germany-covid-vaccine-slow-rollout-shortages-bureaucracy-european-union/

    I guess its even harder for Fritz the 3 year old who has been invited because he has an old dude name and he gets his crayon out....

    I really don't think the government / NHS have been given enough credit for just how slick the operation is. Its not just the amount of supply, it is how straight forward they have made it. If only every interaction with the state, your ISP, your mobile provider, the electricity company was this straight forward.
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