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In the betting Sturgeon’s chances of being First Minister at the end of the year tighten to 9/4 – po

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 19 in General
imageIn the betting Sturgeon’s chances of being First Minister at the end of the year tighten to 9/4 – politicalbetting.com

Odds of Nicola Sturgeon being replaced as FM this year cut from 11/4 to 9/4. ???????https://t.co/A3HtDGiqMG pic.twitter.com/gMiewyG936

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First like the SNP.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,244
    edited March 19
    FPT:
    MrEd said:

    rpjs said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrEd said:

    rpjs said:

    MrEd said:

    Oh look, those nice cuddly respecter of political decency aka The Democrats are trying to overturn an election they lost. Who would have thought?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/18/opinions/iowa-second-district-us-house-battle-douglas/index.html

    "Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members" - Constitution of the United States of America, Article I, Section 5.
    So you agree with the move?

    Yet when there was the debate back in November on here about whether the states' legislatures had the final say in appointing electors to choose the President, there were howls about stealing the election. Now, it's absolutely fine a vote is overturned by a partisan body just because of the rules?

    Funny how your commitment to Democracy only extends to your own side.
    Does your commitment to the US constitution only extend to your side ?
    That tends to be the stance of the GOP and their supporters.
    Funny how many of you refuse to answer the question of whether you think it is right or wrong but deflect. Interesting illumination of your views on Democracy.
    Do I think the Democrat has a valid case? I don't know, as I've not looked into the details. Do I think she has the right to take the action she is taking (i.e. appealing to the House to decide)? Absolutely. Do I think this is politically sensible action to take? Well, I was an elector in Winchester in 1997, so my vote was one of the two that awarded the seat to Mark Oaten on the night. Gerald Malone had the right to dispute it, and took it, but I think it is clear that it wasn't very sensible of him. The Liberal Democrats kept the seat until 2010, and possibly would have done so for longer if Mr Oaten's predilections hadn't made it into the national press. If Malone hadn't contested the result, I think the Tories would have had a good chance of winning the seat back sooner.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,257
    If the Greens support Sturgeon, she's safe. If they don't (say they abstain), Conservative, Labour, LD, Independents plus Reform equals 62.

    I presume if it's a tie the Presiding officer would side with the SNP.

    Even if a VoNC passes, what does that mean given there's an election in just a few weeks? I also wonder if the electorate will think it a good idea so close to the election.

    Does it in any way signal a pro-Union Coalition ready to form an alternative administration? I'm far from convinced.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,732
    Second like Nicola Sturgeon
  • I suspect long term Salmond will be haunting Sturgeon and the SNP like Banquo did with Macbeth.

    Whether he has actually been wronged or not he thinks he has been wronged by Sturgeon and her husband, that makes a second indyref even more interesting.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    The best result for Union would be for the greens to keep her in place and cover themselves in the same buckets of shit that Salmond is dumping on Sturgeon.

    If the three unionist parties can get this result then enough people will sit at home on election day and that gives them a shot at a unionist majority in the Scottish parliament.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086

    I suspect long term Salmond will be haunting Sturgeon and the SNP like Banquo did with Macbeth.

    Whether he has actually been wronged or not he thinks he has been wronged by Sturgeon and her husband, that makes a second indyref even more interesting.

    I don't think they even get one now, the direction of travel is towards no/remain, there's no great move to rejoin the EU. If the polls continue to show a small majority in favour of the Union the SNP will be frit and not ask for one and that loses them more supporters and the whole movement just sort of turns Scotland into the UK's Quebec without the awesome food and French.
  • Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,257
    MaxPB said:

    The best result for Union would be for the greens to keep her in place and cover themselves in the same buckets of shit that Salmond is dumping on Sturgeon.

    If the three unionist parties can get this result then enough people will sit at home on election day and that gives them a shot at a unionist majority in the Scottish parliament.

    Oddly enough, the best result for the Conservative Party and the Union is a weakened SNP still in control at Holyrood.

    The alternative is an unsteady coalition where Conservatives might have to support a Labour FM. Would Johnson prefer that?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,012
    So. No change in role or responsibility then?
  • MaxPB said:

    The best result for Union would be for the greens to keep her in place and cover themselves in the same buckets of shit that Salmond is dumping on Sturgeon.

    If the three unionist parties can get this result then enough people will sit at home on election day and that gives them a shot at a unionist majority in the Scottish parliament.

    If the SNP are the largest party, but sans majority, then the Tories should follow the 2007 model.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402
    stodge said:

    If the Greens support Sturgeon, she's safe. If they don't (say they abstain), Conservative, Labour, LD, Independents plus Reform equals 62.

    I presume if it's a tie the Presiding officer would side with the SNP.

    Even if a VoNC passes, what does that mean given there's an election in just a few weeks? I also wonder if the electorate will think it a good idea so close to the election.

    Does it in any way signal a pro-Union Coalition ready to form an alternative administration? I'm far from convinced.

    The Presiding officer is SLab, the 'convention' in the event of a tie is that they vote with the status quo, but it is only a convention (and we know how flimsy they've been lately).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    The best result for Union would be for the greens to keep her in place and cover themselves in the same buckets of shit that Salmond is dumping on Sturgeon.

    If the three unionist parties can get this result then enough people will sit at home on election day and that gives them a shot at a unionist majority in the Scottish parliament.

    Oddly enough, the best result for the Conservative Party and the Union is a weakened SNP still in control at Holyrood.

    The alternative is an unsteady coalition where Conservatives might have to support a Labour FM. Would Johnson prefer that?
    Would be tough for Anas Sarwar to get FM as I'm not sure they'll want the Tory support to get there. The SNP in a minority government seems like the most likely result, they won't be far off a nationalist majority and as long as Sturgeon is gone I'm sure the unionist MSPs will just let them take the position but always have the ultimate threat if they put indy back on the table.
  • dixiedean said:

    After 48, seemingly solid, hours of refreshing, I finally got a vaccine appointment.
    I welcome the control of a shadowy cabal of the elite on Thursday.

    Hurrah!

    Afterwards 50% of your posts will be about praising Bill Gates.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    dixiedean said:

    After 48, seemingly solid, hours of refreshing, I finally got a vaccine appointment.
    I welcome the control of a shadowy cabal of the elite on Thursday.

    Huzzah!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,422
    Nippie is going nowhere.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,962

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Cue a lot of faux outrage
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    edited March 19

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Cue a lot of faux outrage
    Well it's a pretty stupid and ignorant thing to say, regardless of whether it merits "outrage".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969

    stodge said:

    If the Greens support Sturgeon, she's safe. If they don't (say they abstain), Conservative, Labour, LD, Independents plus Reform equals 62.

    I presume if it's a tie the Presiding officer would side with the SNP.

    Even if a VoNC passes, what does that mean given there's an election in just a few weeks? I also wonder if the electorate will think it a good idea so close to the election.

    Does it in any way signal a pro-Union Coalition ready to form an alternative administration? I'm far from convinced.

    The Presiding officer is SLab, the 'convention' in the event of a tie is that they vote with the status quo, but it is only a convention (and we know how flimsy they've been lately).
    I think that may be different in confidence votes - in the case of a tie the FM will have demonstrated she doesn’t have the confidence of the house
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 877

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I have a dusty old O-Level in "Welsh as a Foreign Language" courtesy of the Welsh Joint Education Committee. Given that "Welsh" literally means "foreign" in Anglo-Saxon it is the first and foremost "foreign language" and I look forward to the day it becomes "foreign" in fact as well as in theory.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,472

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Cue a lot of faux outrage
    Er, How is Welsh a foreign language? They even used to speak it up north!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,012
    edited March 19

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Cue a lot of faux outrage
    Surely "false outrage?"
    Otherwise we could fall into a bozartige Spirale of never ending linguistic harrumphing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Thank goodness he’s abandoned his Welsh ancestry. We don’t want the Sais bastard.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Cue a lot of faux outrage
    Well it's a pretty stupid and ignorant thing to say, regardless of whether it merits "outrage".
    I’m intrigued. When has Mogg said something that *isn’t* stupid and ignorant?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,012
    edited March 19

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Cue a lot of faux outrage
    Well it's a pretty stupid and ignorant thing to say, regardless of whether it merits "outrage".
    That's the thing with JRM. His mannered suits, strangled vowels and number 1 clipped consonants disguise the fact that he is often stupid and ignorant.
    When not being downright nasty.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    On topic, I think it’s worth remembering at this juncture that while this clearly shatters or at the very least severely damages Sturgeon’s credibility, nobody has got rich in the last twenty years betting on a poor performance by the SNP. On the contrary, the smart move with the exception of 2016 has been to lay their opponents.

    When the hard core of Sindy supporters that make up 40% of Scotland’s population desert the party, then the value is in laying them. That moment hasn’t come yet and probably won’t over this.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,781

    stodge said:

    If the Greens support Sturgeon, she's safe. If they don't (say they abstain), Conservative, Labour, LD, Independents plus Reform equals 62.

    I presume if it's a tie the Presiding officer would side with the SNP.

    Even if a VoNC passes, what does that mean given there's an election in just a few weeks? I also wonder if the electorate will think it a good idea so close to the election.

    Does it in any way signal a pro-Union Coalition ready to form an alternative administration? I'm far from convinced.

    The Presiding officer is SLab, the 'convention' in the event of a tie is that they vote with the status quo, but it is only a convention (and we know how flimsy they've been lately).
    Presumably the status quo is resigning or getting booted when you're completely bang to rights?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    If the Greens support Sturgeon, she's safe. If they don't (say they abstain), Conservative, Labour, LD, Independents plus Reform equals 62.

    I presume if it's a tie the Presiding officer would side with the SNP.

    Even if a VoNC passes, what does that mean given there's an election in just a few weeks? I also wonder if the electorate will think it a good idea so close to the election.

    Does it in any way signal a pro-Union Coalition ready to form an alternative administration? I'm far from convinced.

    The Presiding officer is SLab, the 'convention' in the event of a tie is that they vote with the status quo, but it is only a convention (and we know how flimsy they've been lately).
    I think that may be different in confidence votes - in the case of a tie the FM will have demonstrated she doesn’t have the confidence of the house
    Still applies in confidence votes at Westminster so I assume it does in Holyrood too. In a vote of confidence, remember the opposition have to demonstrate ‘no confidence.’ That’s why the absence of a Labour MP was crucial in the collapse of the Callaghan government - his vote would have led to a tie, and the Speaker would have backed the government.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    If the Greens support Sturgeon, she's safe. If they don't (say they abstain), Conservative, Labour, LD, Independents plus Reform equals 62.

    I presume if it's a tie the Presiding officer would side with the SNP.

    Even if a VoNC passes, what does that mean given there's an election in just a few weeks? I also wonder if the electorate will think it a good idea so close to the election.

    Does it in any way signal a pro-Union Coalition ready to form an alternative administration? I'm far from convinced.

    The Presiding officer is SLab, the 'convention' in the event of a tie is that they vote with the status quo, but it is only a convention (and we know how flimsy they've been lately).
    I think that may be different in confidence votes - in the case of a tie the FM will have demonstrated she doesn’t have the confidence of the house
    Still applies in confidence votes at Westminster so I assume it does in Holyrood too. In a vote of confidence, remember the opposition have to demonstrate ‘no confidence.’ That’s why the absence of a Labour MP was crucial in the collapse of the Callaghan government - his vote would have led to a tie, and the Speaker would have backed the government.
    Yes, maintaining confidence is the status quo.

    Actively removing it is a change. Speaker doesn't do that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,238
    Isn’t the average Scottish voter’s considered view of all this that Salmond has been shown to be a creepy sleazebag? In that context whether or not Sturgeon has misled Parliament - and the fact that divisions on the matter pretty much match party affiliation - is not really relevant.

    I’d still expect her to be FM at the end of the year.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
    For the reason he explains. They don't have translation services in the House. Hence the working language of the House is English, even if people have other languages.

    However the Speaker was the one who had said not to make opening remarks in Welsh and JRM was defending their right to do so ... so that's really an unfortunate way it's been phrased in the report.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402
    edited March 19
    maaarsh said:

    stodge said:

    If the Greens support Sturgeon, she's safe. If they don't (say they abstain), Conservative, Labour, LD, Independents plus Reform equals 62.

    I presume if it's a tie the Presiding officer would side with the SNP.

    Even if a VoNC passes, what does that mean given there's an election in just a few weeks? I also wonder if the electorate will think it a good idea so close to the election.

    Does it in any way signal a pro-Union Coalition ready to form an alternative administration? I'm far from convinced.

    The Presiding officer is SLab, the 'convention' in the event of a tie is that they vote with the status quo, but it is only a convention (and we know how flimsy they've been lately).
    Presumably the status quo is resigning or getting booted when you're completely bang to rights?
    Dunno, you'll have to give me some recent examples of the status quo resulting in a minister resigning or getting booted when they're completely bang to rights for misleading (a) parliament.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
    Because it’s not an official language of the Commons and facilities are not provided to translate it. Nor could they be easily provided given the antiquated nature of the chamber.

    The key to speeches in debate is that everyone needs to be able to understand them or they are a complete waste of time.

    I believe the three surviving Celtic languages *should* be permitted to be used in the Commons, but the fact is at this moment they are not and unless a democratic decision is taken to change and enable that, speeches should be in English.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 886
    Just a small prick. Now you know how the rest of us feel.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
    Because the commons is supposed to be about debating with your fellow MPs and only a minority speak Welsh fluently
  • Isn’t the average Scottish voter’s considered view of all this that Salmond has been shown to be a creepy sleazebag? In that context whether or not Sturgeon has misled Parliament - and the fact that divisions on the matter pretty much match party affiliation - is not really relevant.

    I’d still expect her to be FM at the end of the year.

    The thing I'm still reeling from is where Sturgeon said, and I paraphrase

    'Sure Salmond was found not guilty but no smoke without fire, nudge nudge, wink wink'.

    I'm seldom lost for words but Sturgeon's intervention managed it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,599
    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I think it’s worth remembering at this juncture that while this clearly shatters or at the very least severely damages Sturgeon’s credibility, nobody has got rich in the last twenty years betting on a poor performance by the SNP. On the contrary, the smart move with the exception of 2016 has been to lay their opponents.

    When the hard core of Sindy supporters that make up 40% of Scotland’s population desert the party, then the value is in laying them. That moment hasn’t come yet and probably won’t over this.

    I agree to an extent - the SNP is Scotland for many. Nicola Sturgeon can be a sleazy, incompetent, authoritarian menace, but she's their sleazy incompetent authoritarian menace. The penny won't drop till someone separates those two concepts.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,035

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
    Because a debate requires both sides to understand. Usually, at least :D
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    Charles said:

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
    Because the commons is supposed to be about debating with your fellow MPs and only a minority speak Welsh fluently
    I mean, it's supposed to be a lot of things...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861
    dixiedean said:

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Cue a lot of faux outrage
    Well it's a pretty stupid and ignorant thing to say, regardless of whether it merits "outrage".
    That's the thing with JRM. His mannered suits, strangled vowels and number 1 clipped consonants disguise the fact that he is often stupid and ignorant.
    When not being downright nasty.
    So true. To veer on topic I've often thought that if Sindy2 happens the Yes campaign should maybe forget all the complex talking points and just go with a hologram of Rees Mogg with the strapline, "This man is in the cabinet and has a degree of influence in the current UK party of government".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I think it’s worth remembering at this juncture that while this clearly shatters or at the very least severely damages Sturgeon’s credibility, nobody has got rich in the last twenty years betting on a poor performance by the SNP. On the contrary, the smart move with the exception of 2016 has been to lay their opponents.

    When the hard core of Sindy supporters that make up 40% of Scotland’s population desert the party, then the value is in laying them. That moment hasn’t come yet and probably won’t over this.

    I agree to an extent - the SNP is Scotland for many. Nicola Sturgeon can be a sleazy, incompetent, authoritarian menace, but she's their sleazy incompetent authoritarian menace. The penny won't drop till someone separates those two concepts.
    As Asquith said, self government is better than good government.

    Have to say the Scots are testing this to destruction right now, but...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    RobD said:

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
    Because a debate requires both sides to understand. Usually, at least :D
    Sure, your point is fair, but there's not much actual "debating" that happens in the HoC. Usually a bunch of people say some things and then everyone votes as they are told.

    So really it doesn't matter if nobody understands what you've said.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    OK, so here’s the question:

    How could simultaneous translation be provided in a chamber built in the 1940s to a design of the 1830s?

    I’m thinking Bluetooth headphones, hooked up either to a phone app or a central computer, might be feasible.

    But I’ve no idea what signal is like in the chamber. Any info?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,035
    edited March 19

    RobD said:

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
    Because a debate requires both sides to understand. Usually, at least :D
    Sure, your point is fair, but there's not much actual "debating" that happens in the HoC. Usually a bunch of people say some things and then everyone votes as they are told.

    So really it doesn't matter if nobody understands what you've said.
    At PMQs perhaps. The rest of the time there does appear to be good-natured debate.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,387
    ydoethur said:

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
    Because it’s not an official language of the Commons and facilities are not provided to translate it. Nor could they be easily provided given the antiquated nature of the chamber.

    The key to speeches in debate is that everyone needs to be able to understand them or they are a complete waste of time.

    I believe the three surviving Celtic languages *should* be permitted to be used in the Commons, but the fact is at this moment they are not and unless a democratic decision is taken to change and enable that, speeches should be in English.
    As someone that speaks cornish I agree, should be permitted if translation is there but I dont think everyone should learn cornish and the language of parliament for the time being has to be english
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 12,663
    ydoethur said:

    OK, so here’s the question:

    How could simultaneous translation be provided in a chamber built in the 1940s to a design of the 1830s?

    I’m thinking Bluetooth headphones, hooked up either to a phone app or a central computer, might be feasible.

    But I’ve no idea what signal is like in the chamber. Any info?

    There is clearly reception in the chamber given how often MPs are staring at their phones, and any modern smartphone will do simultaneous translation
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,599

    maaarsh said:

    stodge said:

    If the Greens support Sturgeon, she's safe. If they don't (say they abstain), Conservative, Labour, LD, Independents plus Reform equals 62.

    I presume if it's a tie the Presiding officer would side with the SNP.

    Even if a VoNC passes, what does that mean given there's an election in just a few weeks? I also wonder if the electorate will think it a good idea so close to the election.

    Does it in any way signal a pro-Union Coalition ready to form an alternative administration? I'm far from convinced.

    The Presiding officer is SLab, the 'convention' in the event of a tie is that they vote with the status quo, but it is only a convention (and we know how flimsy they've been lately).
    Presumably the status quo is resigning or getting booted when you're completely bang to rights?
    Dunno, you'll have to give me some recent examples of the status quo resulting in a minister resigning or getting booted when they're completely bang to rights for misleading (a) parliament.
    Understandable - how many SNP generations ago would Wendy Alexander be now?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,599
    ydoethur said:
    Scraping the bottom a bit if you ask me.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 98
    ydoethur said:

    OK, so here’s the question:

    How could simultaneous translation be provided in a chamber built in the 1940s to a design of the 1830s?

    I’m thinking Bluetooth headphones, hooked up either to a phone app or a central computer, might be feasible.

    But I’ve no idea what signal is like in the chamber. Any info?

    From speaking to my boss, my understanding is that signal in the Chamber (both WiFi and phone) is fairly bad, but that's true for pretty much everywhere on the estate.

    Your suggestion seems fairly viable to me once the refurb is done, as apparently one of the aims is to improve connectivity across the estate. Of course it would depend on the authorities being willing to support additional languages with clerks and translators, which might be politically fraught.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    OK, so here’s the question:

    How could simultaneous translation be provided in a chamber built in the 1940s to a design of the 1830s?

    I’m thinking Bluetooth headphones, hooked up either to a phone app or a central computer, might be feasible.

    But I’ve no idea what signal is like in the chamber. Any info?

    There is clearly reception in the chamber given how often MPs are staring at their phones, and any modern smartphone will do simultaneous translation
    Google translate doesn’t love Welsh. In particular, it confuses positives and negatives.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,244
    ydoethur said:

    OK, so here’s the question:

    How could simultaneous translation be provided in a chamber built in the 1940s to a design of the 1830s?

    I’m thinking Bluetooth headphones, hooked up either to a phone app or a central computer, might be feasible.

    But I’ve no idea what signal is like in the chamber. Any info?

    You don't even need Bluetooth. My university student union had simultaneous Welsh/English translation for meetings using radio headphones back in the late 80s.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    OK, so here’s the question:

    How could simultaneous translation be provided in a chamber built in the 1940s to a design of the 1830s?

    I’m thinking Bluetooth headphones, hooked up either to a phone app or a central computer, might be feasible.

    But I’ve no idea what signal is like in the chamber. Any info?

    There is clearly reception in the chamber given how often MPs are staring at their phones, and any modern smartphone will do simultaneous translation
    Google translate doesn’t love Welsh. In particular, it confuses positives and negatives.
    Could be an issue in deciding whether an MP supports something or not...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,387
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    OK, so here’s the question:

    How could simultaneous translation be provided in a chamber built in the 1940s to a design of the 1830s?

    I’m thinking Bluetooth headphones, hooked up either to a phone app or a central computer, might be feasible.

    But I’ve no idea what signal is like in the chamber. Any info?

    There is clearly reception in the chamber given how often MPs are staring at their phones, and any modern smartphone will do simultaneous translation
    Google translate doesn’t love Welsh. In particular, it confuses positives and negatives.
    Google translate doesnt even do cornish
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,387
    Floater said:
    lets hope he doesnt die of a blood clot
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    Floater said:
    They really could not have f*cked this up more. Incredible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    Floater said:
    Now we know why he stole that shipment from the Aussies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    Pagan2 said:

    Floater said:
    lets hope he doesnt die of a blood clot
    Whatever happens, he will die a bloody clot.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,433
    ydoethur said:

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Cue a lot of faux outrage
    Well it's a pretty stupid and ignorant thing to say, regardless of whether it merits "outrage".
    I’m intrigued. When has Mogg said something that *isn’t* stupid and ignorant?
    This time.

    It was perfectly sensible. People are just trying to make something out of absolutely nothing.

    I make no comment on everything else he says, in English, Welsh or Latin.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,732
    No-one thought Nixon would have to resign ...... tick toc tic toc
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,639
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,927
    Hope Boris holds out for Moderna.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,035
    geoffw said:

    Hope Boris holds out for Moderna.

    Too late.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,562
    edited March 19
    Charles said:

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    I don't like to ever defend Rees-Mogg, but he doesn't actually say that by my reading.

    He says "modest quotation in foreign languages is permissible" and "some [members] occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable" and "Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches" going on to go into the cost of translation of full speeches.

    I read that as three separate but related points about foreign languages, dead/classical languages, and UK languages other than English. I don't actually think it's correct that he was referring to Welsh or Scots as "foreign languages".
    That's exactly how I understood what he was saying too.
    Why shouldn't a Welsh MP be able to do a speech in Welsh? Inconvenient, sure, but if it's their first language...
    Because the commons is supposed to be about debating with your fellow MPs and only a minority speak Welsh fluently
    AFAIU, Liz Saville Roberts simply said 'Happy St Patrick's Day" in Welsh and Irish -- before the jackboots of Lindsay Hoyle -- the Fash of the North -- came crunching swiftly down.

    AFAIU, Rees-Mogg was trying to defend Ms Saville-Roberts use of language, but he referred to Welsh as a "foreign language" because he was arguing that it was analogous to occasional use of Latin or Greek, which is permitted.

    The Moggster said: "I know that some honourable and right honourable members occasionally use Latin quips, and that is perfectly allowable and Welsh quips and Scots quotations are allowed, but not full speeches."

    So, the Moggster is a bit of a wanker, but we knew that. Anyhow, he is not as big a wanker as Lindsay Hoyle.

    I mean, what kind of person responds to "Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona daoibh go léir!" with "Stop that. You can't do that here"
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112

    ydoethur said:

    Has John Redwood become a SPAD to Jacob Rees-Mogg?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1372811601364070404

    Cue a lot of faux outrage
    Well it's a pretty stupid and ignorant thing to say, regardless of whether it merits "outrage".
    I’m intrigued. When has Mogg said something that *isn’t* stupid and ignorant?
    This time.

    It was perfectly sensible. People are just trying to make something out of absolutely nothing.

    I make no comment on everything else he says, in English, Welsh or Latin.
    FWIW reading past the headline it's probably fair enough this time. But it was an interesting debate nonetheless.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,927
    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    Hope Boris holds out for Moderna.

    Too late.
    Boris or Moderna?

  • felixfelix Posts: 12,583
    Presumably now that Boris has shown them how to do it they're all following the leader.. :smiley:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    Floater said:
    Would?

    Not will?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,387
    Floater said:
    lets hope he doesnt die of a blood clot
    Foxy said:
    The police have never been there to protect us merely to provide retribution against wrong doers
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,927
    Ah so.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,238
    Foxy said:
    C4 News just covered this. The report included CCTV images of her being attacked - utterly unbelievable how the Police managed to come to a conclusion that anything other than instant dismissal would be an appropriate response.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,387

    Foxy said:
    C4 News just covered this. The report included CCTV images of her being attacked - utterly unbelievable how the Police managed to come to a conclusion that anything other than instant dismissal would be an appropriate response.
    Most find it quite believable, the scale of evidence against a police officer has to be much higher than a civillian
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,316
    LDs calling for stiffer sentences. Interesting.
  • No-one thought Nixon would have to resign ...... tick toc tic toc

    Lots of people did think Nixon would have to resign.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,065
    FPT
    Kinabalu said:
    'This is the traditional analysis but it's no longer applicable in the new politics forged by the 2016 EU Referendum and its aftermath. If the Tories can't win here, a triumphant Brexit just pocketed, they are losing their grip on what won them their GE majority - their consolidation and ownership of the Leave political identity, transcending class. Which means big trouble for them, since they offer little else except the "Boris" act. If Labour win this seat in May, Starmer will not quite be measuring up the curtains for number 10, but he will be immensely heartened, trust me. '

    I really fail to see the psephological logic here. Is there any serious evidence that voters today in Hartlepool - or anywhere else - are more obsessed with Brexit - and Corbyn - than was the case in December 2019? The Tories failed by some margin to win the seat at a time when both those factors were at their most salient. Why should they be so much more likely to win the seat now - particularly when the national polling evidence shows a more modest Tory lead compared with 16 months ago?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376

    I take it all back. I am now a big fan of Macron. Thanks to his efforts, some people have refused their AZ jabs and when I picked my wife up from her shift at a vaccine centre tonight, I got my jab months early because there was one left. Thank you President Macron.

    I’m not sure whether to congratulate you on the good news or ask you not to rub it in quite so fecking much.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,387
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said:
    'This is the traditional analysis but it's no longer applicable in the new politics forged by the 2016 EU Referendum and its aftermath. If the Tories can't win here, a triumphant Brexit just pocketed, they are losing their grip on what won them their GE majority - their consolidation and ownership of the Leave political identity, transcending class. Which means big trouble for them, since they offer little else except the "Boris" act. If Labour win this seat in May, Starmer will not quite be measuring up the curtains for number 10, but he will be immensely heartened, trust me. '

    I really fail to see the psephological logic here. Is there any serious evidence that voters today in Hartlepool - or anywhere else - are more obsessed with Brexit - and Corbyn - than was the case in December 2019? The Tories failed by some margin to win the seat at a time when both those factors were at their most salient. Why should they be so much more likely to win the seat now - particularly when the national polling evidence shows a more modest Tory lead compared with 16 months ago?

    He wasnt being serious just getting his excuses in early for why labour lost
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    ydoethur said:

    I take it all back. I am now a big fan of Macron. Thanks to his efforts, some people have refused their AZ jabs and when I picked my wife up from her shift at a vaccine centre tonight, I got my jab months early because there was one left. Thank you President Macron.

    I’m not sure whether to congratulate you on the good news or ask you not to rub it in quite so fecking much.
    All I am saying is I am now available to campaign for him and any other moronic EU leader that’s created vaccine hesitancy.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 5,357
    Andy_JS said:

    LDs calling for stiffer sentences. Interesting.

    The LDs don't really exist currently. They've never got over their ditching of Clegg.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,472
    edited March 19
    Foxy said:
    I posted the link to the BBC article upthread!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    The UK dropped out of the top 20 for cases today. First time in a year, probably, despite testing more per capita than any other large country

    13th for daily deaths
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798

    Floater said:
    They really could not have f*cked this up more. Incredible.
    Merkel is on the point of throwing in the towel and starting to throw Germany's unlocking into reverse.

    Ms Merkel said she had hoped lockdown measures would not need to be reintroduced so soon after easing restrictions, but that "sadly" developments meant that it was looking unavoidable.

    "We agreed that, should the seven-day incidence rate exceed 100 per 100,000 people in a region or state, we will go back to the restrictions which were in place until 7 March - we called it the emergency brake."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56460696

    Also on the subject of screw-ups, and tacked on to the end of the article about Germany...

    Some 21 million people in 16 areas of France, including the capital Paris, will be placed under Covid lockdown measures from midnight on Friday as the country fears a third wave.

    Trains leaving Paris for parts of the country where lockdown restrictions do not apply, such as Brittany and Lyon, were reportedly fully booked hours before the measures were due to come into effect. Traffic jams were reported on several roads leaving the capital.


    That, as was predicted the nanosecond after the French Government decided to lock down parts of the country but not others, is the Plague spread to all the places where it wasn't already starting to burn out of control. They've learned nothing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969

    Floater said:
    Would?

    Not will?
    She previously said she wouldn’t take it as she wasn’t 65... so presumably she took something else
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798

    Floater said:
    Would?

    Not will?
    Chancellor Merkel is currently far too young to qualify and is still waiting her turn, I believe.

    She's 66.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969
    ydoethur said:

    I take it all back. I am now a big fan of Macron. Thanks to his efforts, some people have refused their AZ jabs and when I picked my wife up from her shift at a vaccine centre tonight, I got my jab months early because there was one left. Thank you President Macron.

    I’m not sure whether to congratulate you on the good news or ask you not to rub it in quite so fecking much.
    You shouldn’t try to run in a vaccine. They are delivered IM not TD.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said:
    'This is the traditional analysis but it's no longer applicable in the new politics forged by the 2016 EU Referendum and its aftermath. If the Tories can't win here, a triumphant Brexit just pocketed, they are losing their grip on what won them their GE majority - their consolidation and ownership of the Leave political identity, transcending class. Which means big trouble for them, since they offer little else except the "Boris" act. If Labour win this seat in May, Starmer will not quite be measuring up the curtains for number 10, but he will be immensely heartened, trust me. '

    I really fail to see the psephological logic here. Is there any serious evidence that voters today in Hartlepool - or anywhere else - are more obsessed with Brexit - and Corbyn - than was the case in December 2019? The Tories failed by some margin to win the seat at a time when both those factors were at their most salient. Why should they be so much more likely to win the seat now - particularly when the national polling evidence shows a more modest Tory lead compared with 16 months ago?

    But where are the 25% who voted Brexit Party going? Brexit is more a salient issue to them, than anyone else, I'd say. Back to Labour, to the arms of arch-Remainer Starmer? To Boris who delivered Brexit? Or staying at home sat on their arse?

    I'd say 20% Labour, 60% Tory, 20% not voting. That's about enough of the vote going Tory to win.
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