Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.
Did you actually read that tweet?
How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?
To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...
Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.
HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.
At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.
If it does come out that this was HMG caving in to the EU - Jesus.
See my addition in bold - that's what you are really suggesting. I cannot see that as a possibility.
Some will also speculate that there is indeed a safety issue with AZ. I don't beleive that either but conspiracy theories breed in a vacuum.
My theory is: fait accompli. The EU has already done this. Grabbed our jabs. Hence the surprise announcement of a UK shortfall on the same day the EU provided cover for what has already happened.
I would love to be proved wrong; I probably am. But it should be fairly easy for Boris to tell us the real problem with supply, if this is not the answer? Silence will not be good enough.
If the EU had done that this government would be milking it for all it was worth. For one thing it would boost HMG's popularity at home no end. Secondly, it would give them licence to flex on other withdrawal agreement matters not to our (HMG's) liking.
No, the idea that the EU has diverted UK-destined supplies and that that has prompted today's letter from Dr. Nikita Kanani* is pure fiction imo.
It might happen in a cheap airport thriller but not in real life.
Well then the government should be along shortly to explain WHY the supply has so suddenly broken down, and they can make conspiracy theorists like me look the fools we surely are.
Would take about a minute. I am sure they will do it soon. Surely. Any minute now.
And if they (HMG) don't come along with a clear explanation in the next 30 minutes, is that because:
a) They are utterly shite at basic comms, couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and don't know their arse from their elbow, or
b) They have secretly agreed for half our planned vaccine supplies to go to the EU because, um, keeping the EU sweet is so important to this cabinet of, er, closet Europhiles?
You decide.
The undoubted success of the vaccination programme has rather distracted us from point a for a couple of months.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
If me taking the jab meant the return of my freedom, I might well have taken it. But it doesn't. If I took the jab tomorrow, I would still be locked down with no guarantee of release at any point.
@dixiedean have you managed to book a vaccine? Apparently if you try and do it after midnight, new appointments are released and you'll have more time to confirm it before it's taken before someone else.
Am still trying. Thanks for asking. New ones keep coming up but no luck as of yet. I really need Centre for Life. Or at a push Carlisle, as I have no transport. Keep trying I guess. Cheers!
Ah right, is the issue that you can get a vacine offer but not at a location you can get to?
If so, that's a bummer - fingers-crossed you get a result soon.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
I was reassured on PB, around the time RCS arguing the governments road map too cautious, lumpy supply couldn’t happen, because production is busy ramping up world over, so supply only going to go in one direction.
More interesting though is the individual selfishness embedded in the reaction to this news - I want a pint - I want to travel for holiday - I want my jab and I want it now, call to arms for all under 50’s.
Because we have all been living in a fucking open prison for a YEAR
Nerves are stretched to breaking. I see it all around me
Vaccine rollout about altruism and happy smiles, not selfishness and glumbucket faces surely?
Nothing selfish about wanting to end the lockdown.
No. But there are many options how to react if you are 40-50 age this evening, and they can’t all be right. Shrug and patience for the greater good. Or is it list of naughty words, rattle of tin foil and waving skinny fists at some enemy sabotage?
Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?
If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.
And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan. Even by the standards of UVdL.
Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply
Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.
Easy.
*waits*
Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
Absent snark, I genuinely don't get this.
LauraK at the BBC says the problem is with AZ supply. As I understand it, all our AZ comes from British factories, right? That's what I thought. If I am wrong, forgive me, I am driven lunatic by lockdown
And yet, the NHS letter plainly says this:
"They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."
National inbound vaccines supply must mean imports. From the EU (unless it is India, but they report no problems?)
So this doesn't add up. On the one hand the issue is with AZ, on the other hand the NHS suggests the issue is imports presumably from the EU. Yet we don't get AZ from the EU.
What is going on?
In all seriousness the confusion appears to rest upon LauraK's claim about the problem being with AZ. She may be absolutely right but I would certainly wait for some confirmation of that because that claim seems to be the weak link in this chain.
The timing seems fishy. Reduced supply from end March. That is 12 weeks on from the first jabs, so I think a decision has been made to give second jabs over first, with supply and logistics preventing both going simultaneously.
Mrs Foxy had her second Pfizer due on 18 March, but now cancelled and postponed. I am not sure she needs it as she has had the bug and one dose so is probably brimming with antibodies already.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.
Did you actually read that tweet?
How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?
To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...
Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.
HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.
At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.
If it does come out that this was HMG caving in to the EU - Jesus.
See my addition in bold - that's what you are really suggesting. I cannot see that as a possibility.
Some will also speculate that there is indeed a safety issue with AZ. I don't beleive that either but conspiracy theories breed in a vacuum.
My theory is: fait accompli. The EU has already done this. Grabbed our jabs. Hence the surprise announcement of a UK shortfall on the same day the EU provided cover for what has already happened.
I would love to be proved wrong; I probably am. But it should be fairly easy for Boris to tell us the real problem with supply, if this is not the answer? Silence will not be good enough.
If the EU had done that this government would be milking it for all it was worth. For one thing it would boost HMG's popularity at home no end. Secondly, it would give them licence to flex on other withdrawal agreement matters not to our (HMG's) liking.
No, the idea that the EU has diverted UK-destined supplies and that that has prompted today's letter from Dr. Nikita Kanani* is pure fiction imo.
It might happen in a cheap airport thriller but not in real life.
Well then the government should be along shortly to explain WHY the supply has so suddenly broken down, and they can make conspiracy theorists like me look the fools we surely are.
Would take about a minute. I am sure they will do it soon. Surely. Any minute now.
And if they (HMG) don't come along with a clear explanation in the next 30 minutes, is that because:
a) They are utterly shite at basic comms, couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and don't know their arse from their elbow, or
b) They have secretly agreed for half our planned vaccine supplies to go to the EU because, um, keeping the EU sweet is so important to this cabinet of, er, closet Europhiles?
You decide.
I genuinely can't decide. Does that make me Mr Grassy Knoll? If so, I don't give a fuck
Also, there is no answer to my question. How can this simultaneously be a problem with AZ, and yet a problem with vaccine imports, when we supposedly don't import AZ (apart from that vague noise about India a few weeks back)?
It is mysterious. Mysteries are not good during plagues.
Its partly because those who would question their policy and their motives get utterly slotted by supporters of lockdown with a mixture of insults, half baked arguments and crude and cynical appeals to emotion.
I think Alanis Morissette wrote a song about comments like this.
Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?
If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
If all was well this morning, but not now, would they really have been able to agree the wording of the letter and send it out? That sounds like it takes more than a few minutes after a surprize.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
If me taking the jab meant the return of my freedom, I might well have taken it. But it doesn't. If I took the jab tomorrow, I would still be locked down with no guarantee of release at any point.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
If me taking the jab meant the return of my freedom, I might well have taken it. But it doesn't. If I took the jab tomorrow, I would still be locked down with no guarantee of release at any point.
You do realise you aren't the only person in the country?
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
It's a pretty nasty virus. You might be lucky and have a sniffle. Alternatively, you might feel dreadful 6 months later. Long term prognosis? Who knows (literally).
A bit of a gamble though just letting rip.
Unfortunately, the longer this drags on for, the more the calculus begins to shift. Consider:
*If there were no vaccine, and no prospect of one, we'd have no choice but to let it rip *If there is a vaccine and we know it's coming soon, there's every incentive to hunker down and wait *However, if there is a vaccine but we've already been living with lockdowns, on and off, for an entire year, and have no bloody idea how much longer we're going to be made to do so, then people are going to lose patience. That's just human nature
Do I have to slog back and forth to work and the stupid shops and do nothing else, rotting away in this shitty little town and being forbidden from seeing all my family, all my friends, and otherwise just stew, until May, July, October, Spring 2022? The repeated delays don't inspire confidence, but the fact that no good explanation of them (or how fucking long they're going to drag on for) is offered makes things a hundred times worse. If I was reasonably sure I'd only have to rot until early Summer I might be able to hack it, but no such reassurance is forthcoming so I've lost faith, and any interest in playing along with the Government's endless jam tomorrow plans along with it. I guarantee you I won't be the only one.
Matt Hancock has said today that we are on track. What more do you want him to say?
A reasonable explanation of the nature of the problem and some idea of when it's going to end, how, and what comes thereafter would be a good start. At the moment the core message is "Everyone will get done by the end of July and it's all going swimmingly (and don't worry about the fact that we're only sticking olds for the whole of April, move on, nothing to see here.)"
If we've had about three weeks of relative drought, then three of plenty, then four or five - at least - of drought, then how do we know that the drought isn't going to go on and on and on? Nothing has been said about the cause of the latest setback nor about what happens after April. Into such empty vacuums, speculation spreads faster than the fucking virus.
Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?
If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.
And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan. Even by the standards of UVdL.
Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply
Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.
Easy.
*waits*
Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
As Mrs Eek pointed out at tea, announcing that the delay is due to a damaged batch or similar issue may cause people to try to avoid getting an AZ vaccine.
How do they quality check it.
Produced on mass. Pressure to get it in service. How is it quality checked?
Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?
If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.
And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan. Even by the standards of UVdL.
Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply
Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.
Easy.
*waits*
Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
Absent snark, I genuinely don't get this.
LauraK at the BBC says the problem is with AZ supply. As I understand it, all our AZ comes from British factories, right? That's what I thought. If I am wrong, forgive me, I am driven lunatic by lockdown
And yet, the NHS letter plainly says this:
"They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."
National inbound vaccines supply must mean imports. From the EU (unless it is India, but they report no problems?)
So this doesn't add up. On the one hand the issue is with AZ, on the other hand the NHS suggests the issue is imports presumably from the EU. Yet we don't get AZ from the EU.
What is going on?
In all seriousness the confusion appears to rest upon LauraK's claim about the problem being with AZ. She may be absolutely right but I would certainly wait for some confirmation of that because that claim seems to be the weak link in this chain.
Yes, agreed. The "it's about AZ" claim is the unsourced, unverified bit, the NHS letter is clear: it's a problem with imports
@dixiedean have you managed to book a vaccine? Apparently if you try and do it after midnight, new appointments are released and you'll have more time to confirm it before it's taken before someone else.
Am still trying. Thanks for asking. New ones keep coming up but no luck as of yet. I really need Centre for Life. Or at a push Carlisle, as I have no transport. Keep trying I guess. Cheers!
If you are desperate, I could give you a lift, window open, mask on, and all that. Let me know.
That is wonderfully kind of you But right now can't get either. You have to choose the location first. So you can't just get "any appointment anywhere in the North" as an option. I keep refreshing and new appointments come up occasionally but am not quick enough to nab one as of yet. Thank you. You are a top bloke!
Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?
If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.
And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan. Even by the standards of UVdL.
Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply
Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.
Easy.
*waits*
Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
Absent snark, I genuinely don't get this.
LauraK at the BBC says the problem is with AZ supply. As I understand it, all our AZ comes from British factories, right? That's what I thought. If I am wrong, forgive me, I am driven lunatic by lockdown
And yet, the NHS letter plainly says this:
"They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."
National inbound vaccines supply must mean imports. From the EU (unless it is India, but they report no problems?)
So this doesn't add up. On the one hand the issue is with AZ, on the other hand the NHS suggests the issue is imports presumably from the EU. Yet we don't get AZ from the EU.
What is going on?
In all seriousness the confusion appears to rest upon LauraK's claim about the problem being with AZ. She may be absolutely right but I would certainly wait for some confirmation of that because that claim seems to be the weak link in this chain.
The timing seems fishy. Reduced supply from end March. That is 12 weeks on from the first jabs, so I think a decision has been made to give second jabs over first, with supply and logistics preventing both going simultaneously.
Mrs Foxy had her second Pfizer due on 18 March, but now cancelled and postponed. I am not sure she needs it as she has had the bug and one dose so is probably brimming with antibodies already.
The second jab over first would make sense and would be immediately accepted by the public. I mean, I’m mid forties, 11 stone and on the short side of six foot. I am fully aware that the risks to me from Covid are very low.
Why doesn’t the government just say, look if you are in your forties and have no UHC, you are just going to have to wait a month?
Most people by now are aware of the low level of risk to Group 11.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
If me taking the jab meant the return of my freedom, I might well have taken it. But it doesn't. If I took the jab tomorrow, I would still be locked down with no guarantee of release at any point.
That’s bonkers. Why wouldn’t you take it?
Yes, but the principle of informed consent gives people the right to be irrational.
Indeed, an existentialist might argue that making bad decisions is the only way to have control over your own life. To dociley make just socially acceptable decisions is to lose all autonomy.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.
Did you actually read that tweet?
How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?
To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...
Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.
HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.
At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.
If it does come out that this was HMG caving in to the EU - Jesus.
See my addition in bold - that's what you are really suggesting. I cannot see that as a possibility.
Some will also speculate that there is indeed a safety issue with AZ. I don't beleive that either but conspiracy theories breed in a vacuum.
My theory is: fait accompli. The EU has already done this. Grabbed our jabs. Hence the surprise announcement of a UK shortfall on the same day the EU provided cover for what has already happened.
I would love to be proved wrong; I probably am. But it should be fairly easy for Boris to tell us the real problem with supply, if this is not the answer? Silence will not be good enough.
If the EU had done that this government would be milking it for all it was worth. For one thing it would boost HMG's popularity at home no end. Secondly, it would give them licence to flex on other withdrawal agreement matters not to our (HMG's) liking.
No, the idea that the EU has diverted UK-destined supplies and that that has prompted today's letter from Dr. Nikita Kanani* is pure fiction imo.
It might happen in a cheap airport thriller but not in real life.
Well then the government should be along shortly to explain WHY the supply has so suddenly broken down, and they can make conspiracy theorists like me look the fools we surely are.
Would take about a minute. I am sure they will do it soon. Surely. Any minute now.
And if they (HMG) don't come along with a clear explanation in the next 30 minutes, is that because:
a) They are utterly shite at basic comms, couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and don't know their arse from their elbow, or
b) They have secretly agreed for half our planned vaccine supplies to go to the EU because, um, keeping the EU sweet is so important to this cabinet of, er, closet Europhiles?
You decide.
I genuinely can't decide. Does that make me Mr Grassy Knoll? If so, I don't give a fuck
Also, there is no answer to my question. How can this simultaneously be a problem with AZ, and yet a problem with vaccine imports, when we supposedly don't import AZ (apart from that vague noise about India a few weeks back)?
It is mysterious. Mysteries are not good during plagues.
There's little to be gained in assuming conspiracy when manufacturing delays have plagued the entire world's rollout, my dear Ursula von der Leon
Sadly, it may just be our turn to experience a slowdown. At least you've had a shot - pity the rest of us.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
“the kind of people who take vaccines”.
Really? Is this true Contrarian?
???
I have taken plenty of vaccines, including most recently a flu vaccine (which I paid for privately) in the autumn of 2019.
I am sure the vaccines are safe and very effective. And that is one reason I am wondering why we are not out of lockdown when 25 million people have been given them.
I work from home and my contact with people outside my bubble is almost zero. Indoors, completely zero.
Its just not a priority. When we open up, it will be and I will have a vaccine.
Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?
If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.
And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan. Even by the standards of UVdL.
Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply
Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.
Easy.
*waits*
Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
As Mrs Eek pointed out at tea, announcing that the delay is due to a damaged batch or similar issue may cause people to try to avoid getting an AZ vaccine.
How do they quality check it.
Produced on mass. Pressure to get it in service. How is it quality checked?
This has been explained several times on here, and is trivially googleable.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
It's a pretty nasty virus. You might be lucky and have a sniffle. Alternatively, you might feel dreadful 6 months later. Long term prognosis? Who knows (literally).
A bit of a gamble though just letting rip.
Unfortunately, the longer this drags on for, the more the calculus begins to shift. Consider:
*If there were no vaccine, and no prospect of one, we'd have no choice but to let it rip *If there is a vaccine and we know it's coming soon, there's every incentive to hunker down and wait *However, if there is a vaccine but we've already been living with lockdowns, on and off, for an entire year, and have no bloody idea how much longer we're going to be made to do so, then people are going to lose patience. That's just human nature
Do I have to slog back and forth to work and the stupid shops and do nothing else, rotting away in this shitty little town and being forbidden from seeing all my family, all my friends, and otherwise just stew, until May, July, October, Spring 2022? The repeated delays don't inspire confidence, but the fact that no good explanation of them (or how fucking long they're going to drag on for) is offered makes things a hundred times worse. If I was reasonably sure I'd only have to rot until early Summer I might be able to hack it, but no such reassurance is forthcoming so I've lost faith, and any interest in playing along with the Government's endless jam tomorrow plans along with it. I guarantee you I won't be the only one.
Matt Hancock has said today that we are on track. What more do you want him to say?
A reasonable explanation of the nature of the problem and some idea of when it's going to end, how, and what comes thereafter would be a good start. At the moment the core message is "Everyone will get done by the end of July and it's all going swimmingly (and don't worry about the fact that we're only sticking olds for the whole of April, move on, nothing to see here.)"
If we've had about three weeks of relative drought, then three of plenty, then four or five - at least - of drought, then how do we know that the drought isn't going to go on and on and on? Nothing has been said about the cause of the latest setback nor about what happens after April. Into such empty vacuums, speculation spreads faster than the fucking virus.
Is it possible that he has been slightly blind sided by this? I mean it seems to be a breaking story, perhaps we’ll hear more in time. I hope so, because the conspiracies are flying round the world (well UK at least) before the truth has got its boots on (with apologies to the late, great Terry Pratchett).
I think Singapore has a similar system, to prevent ethnic enclaves.
I remember about 15 years ago Rotterdam had a rule whereby in certain grotty areas of the city you had to earn over a certain amount to buy a house there, ostensibly in order to promote gentrification. I can't imagine how they made it work.
Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?
If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.
And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan. Even by the standards of UVdL.
Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply
Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.
Easy.
*waits*
Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
Absent snark, I genuinely don't get this.
LauraK at the BBC says the problem is with AZ supply. As I understand it, all our AZ comes from British factories, right? That's what I thought. If I am wrong, forgive me, I am driven lunatic by lockdown
And yet, the NHS letter plainly says this:
"They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."
National inbound vaccines supply must mean imports. From the EU (unless it is India, but they report no problems?)
So this doesn't add up. On the one hand the issue is with AZ, on the other hand the NHS suggests the issue is imports presumably from the EU. Yet we don't get AZ from the EU.
What is going on?
In all seriousness the confusion appears to rest upon LauraK's claim about the problem being with AZ. She may be absolutely right but I would certainly wait for some confirmation of that because that claim seems to be the weak link in this chain.
Yes, agreed. The "it's about AZ" claim is the unsourced, unverified bit, the NHS letter is clear: it's a problem with imports
Yes, it says "national inbound supply". That can only mean Pfizer from the EU or AZ from India, and I thought the previous delivery was a one-off.
Edit: Unless it's just a bit of clumsy bureaucratese that simply means "supply".
There don't look to be any seismic changes from this election. It's right on the edge as to whether the current 4-party coalition gets a majority in the House of Representatives. The seat projections suggest VVD on 33 seats, CDA and D66 on 19 seats and the CU on 5 which would be 76 out of 150.
As an aside, the latest Forsa poll in Germany has the Union on just 29%, Greens up to 21%, SPD 16%, AfD 10% and both FDP and Linke on 8%.
Is it just me or does one of the studio locations got the colour & livery of some kind of communist party?
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
Let's hope we are all over-reacting. I'm 43. I was hoping to get my first jab early in April so that when 2 households can meet indoors again from May 17th I can give my shielding Mum who I haven't seen properly for a year a hug.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
So maybe it is just really shoddy PR by the government, who probably did not expect that letter to leak? If they didn't expect it, they were fools, of course it would leak
And the confusion over imports/AZ is just Laura K being fed false info. Probably
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
“the kind of people who take vaccines”.
Really? Is this true Contrarian?
???
I have taken plenty of vaccines, including most recently a flu vaccine (which I paid for privately) in the autumn of 2019.
I am sure the vaccines are safe and very effective. And that is one reason I am wondering why we are not out of lockdown when 25 million people have been given them.
I work from home and my contact with people outside my bubble is almost zero. Indoors, completely zero.
Its just not a priority. When we open up, it will be and I will have a vaccine.
Unless you're planning on getting sinopharm or sputnik abroad I doubt you'll be able to get anything privately; the entire supply chain of everything has been brought up by national gov'ts. Or will you go to the NHS website on June 21st ?
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
“the kind of people who take vaccines”.
Really? Is this true Contrarian?
???
I have taken plenty of vaccines, including most recently a flu vaccine (which I paid for privately) in the autumn of 2019.
I am sure the vaccines are safe and very effective. And that is one reason I am wondering why we are not out of lockdown when 25 million people have been given them.
I work from home and my contact with people outside my bubble is almost zero. Indoors, completely zero.
Its just not a priority. When we open up, it will be and I will have a vaccine.
But to be clear you have been offered a vaccine, and refused it? Why?
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
So maybe it is just really shoddy PR by the government, who probably did not expect that letter to leak? If they didn't expect it, they were fools, of course it would leak
And the confusion over imports/AZ is just Laura K being fed false info. Probably
"The result is unacceptable to the EU Commission: According to EU circles, Novavax may not be able to deliver until 2022!"
Given the EU didn't order Novavax until February 2021, they're rather at the back of the queue for that one.
Indeed. You can just imagine Ursula's face when she discovered we're getting the first 60 million doses. And we haven't 'stolen' them from anyone - quite the opposite, we've made them possible by contributing to the production facility.
What's mental is that the post-August UK manufacturing capacity was available for purchase for quite a long time after the initial trial results were posted, that's 20m doses per month the last 4 months of the year and 240m doses available next year and I'm sure if they properly incentivised Novavax they could have got a supply increase from August too.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
I think Singapore has a similar system, to prevent ethnic enclaves.
I remember about 15 years ago Rotterdam had a rule whereby in certain grotty areas of the city you had to earn over a certain amount to buy a house there, ostensibly in order to promote gentrification. I can't imagine how they made it work.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
So maybe it is just really shoddy PR by the government, who probably did not expect that letter to leak? If they didn't expect it, they were fools, of course it would leak
And the confusion over imports/AZ is just Laura K being fed false info. Probably
The latter part would be by far the least surprising element of this sorry episode.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
So maybe it is just really shoddy PR by the government, who probably did not expect that letter to leak? If they didn't expect it, they were fools, of course it would leak
And the confusion over imports/AZ is just Laura K being fed false info. Probably
Still time to recall the bombers?
Not quite. Holding pattern.
We should still lob a grenade or two, just for the ridiculous, damaging smear of AZ
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
D66 the big winners in the Dutch election. From 19 to 27.
The governing coalition looks home with 78 seats - VVD 35, D66 27 (as you say the big winners), CDA 14 (a disappointing result for them) and CU 4.
It's a great result for the liberal parties (VVD and D66), poor for the centre-right (CDA and CU), the Greens and the Socialists.
I suspect the PVV will be disappointed to lose seats as well as they were looking to capitalise on all the chaos and disruption going on at the moment.
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Because the government doesn't know for certain how large and how long the production delays will be.
And from April the 12 week period from the fist dose ends so they have to start doing the oldies again.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
It’s the lead story on every network this evening.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
One of the fundamental principles of Johnsonism is to ignore bad news, because something might turn up.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
Of course. This is PB.
Incidentally, musing over this chart, and projecting to a population of 10 times that of Israel, with a similar vaccination rate assumed. We should anticipate 150-200 covid deaths per day after everyone is offered vaccination.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
“the kind of people who take vaccines”.
Really? Is this true Contrarian?
???
I have taken plenty of vaccines, including most recently a flu vaccine (which I paid for privately) in the autumn of 2019.
I am sure the vaccines are safe and very effective. And that is one reason I am wondering why we are not out of lockdown when 25 million people have been given them.
I work from home and my contact with people outside my bubble is almost zero. Indoors, completely zero.
Its just not a priority. When we open up, it will be and I will have a vaccine.
But to be clear you have been offered a vaccine, and refused it? Why?
I got sent a letter recently and I just have not bothered to make an appointment. Its not like I told some poor NHS person to go f8ck themselves.
"...there will be a significant reduction in weekly supply available from manufacturers beginning in the week commencing 29 March, meaning volumes for first doses will be significantly constrained. They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
Quite, and we can then nail the ‘fully vaccinated’ population for good old Euro Dave...
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
We're still going to have millions of first doses done in April as well anyway, just maybe not as many as the 8-10m we'd like, probably more like 4-5m.
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
Have you ever thought of writing for a living? Your prose is certainly arresting.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
It’s the lead story on every network this evening.
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
We're still going to have millions of first doses done in April as well anyway, just maybe not as many as the 8-10m we'd like, probably more like 4-5m.
D66 the big winners in the Dutch election. From 19 to 27.
The governing coalition looks home with 78 seats - VVD 35, D66 27 (as you say the big winners), CDA 14 (a disappointing result for them) and CU 4.
It's a great result for the liberal parties (VVD and D66), poor for the centre-right (CDA and CU), the Greens and the Socialists.
So in EU terms the Government would be formed of 2 Renew parties and 2 EPP parties
In all honesty, there's no real change. It's probably D66's best ever result and it's one of the worst ever for the centre right but I suspect the coalition will continue.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
So maybe it is just really shoddy PR by the government, who probably did not expect that letter to leak? If they didn't expect it, they were fools, of course it would leak
And the confusion over imports/AZ is just Laura K being fed false info. Probably
Can a letter be said to have leaked when it is on a publicly open website?
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
There was an interesting piece on "lockdown secrets" at the end of Channel 4 news. It seems quite a few people rather like it and don't want it to end.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
Of course. This is PB.
Incidentally, musing over this chart, and projecting to a population of 10 times that of Israel, with a similar vaccination rate assumed. We should anticipate 150-200 covid deaths per day after everyone is offered vaccination.
I don't see how you can make that inference. We're already there through the lockdown we had four months below that level last year without any vaccines at all. We will be opening up much more cautiously than Israel and with higher levels of herd immunity.
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
It really isn't hysterical to react sharply to a sudden unexpected drop in vaccine supplies, a shortage expected to last a month, when vaccines are probably are only route out of the greatest crisis since World War 2, a crisis which is killing tens of thousands.
Its partly because those who would question their policy and their motives get utterly slotted by supporters of lockdown with a mixture of insults, half baked arguments and crude and cynical appeals to emotion.
I think Alanis Morissette wrote a song about comments like this.
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
Have you ever thought of writing for a living? Your prose is certainly arresting.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
If they haven't then it'll last precisely as long as it takes them to realise "Hang on, the Government keeps boring on about these wonderful vaccines - but what about me?"
And if they introduce a vaccine apartheid pass system so the olds can go out whilst the youngsters are imprisoned, they'll certainly bloody notice then.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
It's a pretty nasty virus. You might be lucky and have a sniffle. Alternatively, you might feel dreadful 6 months later. Long term prognosis? Who knows (literally).
A bit of a gamble though just letting rip.
Unfortunately, the longer this drags on for, the more the calculus begins to shift. Consider:
*If there were no vaccine, and no prospect of one, we'd have no choice but to let it rip *If there is a vaccine and we know it's coming soon, there's every incentive to hunker down and wait *However, if there is a vaccine but we've already been living with lockdowns, on and off, for an entire year, and have no bloody idea how much longer we're going to be made to do so, then people are going to lose patience. That's just human nature
Do I have to slog back and forth to work and the stupid shops and do nothing else, rotting away in this shitty little town and being forbidden from seeing all my family, all my friends, and otherwise just stew, until May, July, October, Spring 2022? The repeated delays don't inspire confidence, but the fact that no good explanation of them (or how fucking long they're going to drag on for) is offered makes things a hundred times worse. If I was reasonably sure I'd only have to rot until early Summer I might be able to hack it, but no such reassurance is forthcoming so I've lost faith, and any interest in playing along with the Government's endless jam tomorrow plans along with it. I guarantee you I won't be the only one.
Matt Hancock has said today that we are on track. What more do you want him to say?
A reasonable explanation of the nature of the problem and some idea of when it's going to end, how, and what comes thereafter would be a good start. At the moment the core message is "Everyone will get done by the end of July and it's all going swimmingly (and don't worry about the fact that we're only sticking olds for the whole of April, move on, nothing to see here.)"
If we've had about three weeks of relative drought, then three of plenty, then four or five - at least - of drought, then how do we know that the drought isn't going to go on and on and on? Nothing has been said about the cause of the latest setback nor about what happens after April. Into such empty vacuums, speculation spreads faster than the fucking virus.
Is it possible that he has been slightly blind sided by this? I mean it seems to be a breaking story, perhaps we’ll hear more in time. I hope so, because the conspiracies are flying round the world (well UK at least) before the truth has got its boots on (with apologies to the late, great Terry Pratchett).
To change the mood slightly, in response to your last sentence, I have been reading Pratchett with my oldest. I started when she was seven with the Tiffany Aching series; she is now ten and we have startes the rest of the oeuvre with Equal Rites. I had forgotten how mildly ribald much of it was! But it is an utter pleasure.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
So maybe it is just really shoddy PR by the government, who probably did not expect that letter to leak? If they didn't expect it, they were fools, of course it would leak
And the confusion over imports/AZ is just Laura K being fed false info. Probably
Can a letter be said to have leaked when it is on a publicly open website?
Amid all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, and with due recognition that this is a nasty disease with serious effects for all ages, we should not lose sight of the fact that very soon the vast majority of the demographic that account for 99% of Covid-19 deaths will have been vaccinated against it. We have three months to get the rest (which, being cruel and heartless, is a “nice to have”) and ensure that nothing has gone badly wrong and then, essentially, domestically, our crisis is all but over.
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
We're still going to have millions of first doses done in April as well anyway, just maybe not as many as the 8-10m we'd like, probably more like 4-5m.
How do we keep that up without heading into group 10. Doctors start inventing stuff to get people into G6, the likes of @contrarian rounded up and forcibly jabbed ?
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
There was an interesting piece on "lockdown secrets" at the end of Channel 4 news. It seems quite a few people rather like it and don't want it to end.
Yep. I have had a great lockdown. I would qualify that by saying that I will be glad for it to end so I can see my Mum properly again but it has been brilliant for work life balance for me- in that I actually have one for the first time in about 30 years. My son has thrived as well in terms of schooling and actually gets to spend more time chatting with his mates during lockdown than when he is back at school.
I know it has to end and head says the sooner he better. But it would be dishonest to say I haven't had a really great time.
D66 the big winners in the Dutch election. From 19 to 27.
The governing coalition looks home with 78 seats - VVD 35, D66 27 (as you say the big winners), CDA 14 (a disappointing result for them) and CU 4.
It's a great result for the liberal parties (VVD and D66), poor for the centre-right (CDA and CU), the Greens and the Socialists.
So in EU terms the Government would be formed of 2 Renew parties and 2 EPP parties
In all honesty, there's no real change. It's probably D66's best ever result and it's one of the worst ever for the centre right but I suspect the coalition will continue.
Ah, PR. The leading party has one of its worst ever elections and carries on in government.
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
There was an interesting piece on "lockdown secrets" at the end of Channel 4 news. It seems quite a few people rather like it and don't want it to end.
I really really want it to end. I have had some seriously bad times, and I've seen others suffer much worse than me. Some terribly
However, there have been upsides. I have a better relationship with my kids. I have learned to cook quite complex dishes, and I have discovered that it isn't complex. I have bought a puppy, which turns out to be adorable.
And this last lockdown, because it is so long and soooo intense, has turned out to be good for my work. I have never knapped better, as it is all I have to do and all there is to do
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
“the kind of people who take vaccines”.
Really? Is this true Contrarian?
???
I have taken plenty of vaccines, including most recently a flu vaccine (which I paid for privately) in the autumn of 2019.
I am sure the vaccines are safe and very effective. And that is one reason I am wondering why we are not out of lockdown when 25 million people have been given them.
I work from home and my contact with people outside my bubble is almost zero. Indoors, completely zero.
Its just not a priority. When we open up, it will be and I will have a vaccine.
But to be clear you have been offered a vaccine, and refused it? Why?
I got sent a letter recently and I just have not bothered to make an appointment. Its not like I told some poor NHS person to go f8ck themselves.
You don’t want to be locked down and don’t want to be vaccinated (at least not on anyone’s terms but your own) either. So what, exactly, are you prepared to do to bring this crisis to an end?
Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?
If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.
And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan. Even by the standards of UVdL.
Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply
Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.
Easy.
*waits*
Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
Absent snark, I genuinely don't get this.
LauraK at the BBC says the problem is with AZ supply. As I understand it, all our AZ comes from British factories, right? That's what I thought. If I am wrong, forgive me, I am driven lunatic by lockdown
And yet, the NHS letter plainly says this:
"They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."
National inbound vaccines supply must mean imports. From the EU (unless it is India, but they report no problems?)
So this doesn't add up. On the one hand the issue is with AZ, on the other hand the NHS suggests the issue is imports presumably from the EU. Yet we don't get AZ from the EU.
What is going on?
In all seriousness the confusion appears to rest upon LauraK's claim about the problem being with AZ. She may be absolutely right but I would certainly wait for some confirmation of that because that claim seems to be the weak link in this chain.
Yes, agreed. The "it's about AZ" claim is the unsourced, unverified bit, the NHS letter is clear: it's a problem with imports
Yes, it says "national inbound supply". That can only mean Pfizer from the EU or AZ from India, and I thought the previous delivery was a one-off.
Edit: Unless it's just a bit of clumsy bureaucratese that simply means "supply".
There are lots of things.
The AZN vaccine almost certainly uses precursors from abroad. We were also previously importing glass vials, and that was a bottleneck.
Plus, as you say, there are AZ imports from India.
Personally, I like TSE's explanation of AZ worrying about a bad batch giving all the negative publicity. Those factories will have been running at 100% and the chance of scheduled maintenance being deferred has to be high.
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
There was an interesting piece on "lockdown secrets" at the end of Channel 4 news. It seems quite a few people rather like it and don't want it to end.
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
We're still going to have millions of first doses done in April as well anyway, just maybe not as many as the 8-10m we'd like, probably more like 4-5m.
Yeah right, pull the other one.
We have two new vaccines coming in April. We have to use at least 50% of that supply as it comes in. That alone will get us into the "many millions".
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
It really isn't hysterical to react sharply to a sudden unexpected drop in vaccine supplies, a shortage expected to last a month, when vaccines are probably are only route out of the greatest crisis since World War 2, a crisis which is killing tens of thousands.
This isn't an unexpectedly lost by-election, FFS
The sudden unexpected drop that it now appears we were told about three days ago?
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
Of course. This is PB.
Incidentally, musing over this chart, and projecting to a population of 10 times that of Israel, with a similar vaccination rate assumed. We should anticipate 150-200 covid deaths per day after everyone is offered vaccination.
I don't see how you can make that inference. We're already there through the lockdown we had four months below that level last year without any vaccines at all. We will be opening up much more cautiously than Israel and with higher levels of herd immunity.
Just fairly straightforward extrapolation. Vaccines will have a failure rate, particularly with those not getting a booster, and with the unvaccinated. Israeli numbers may peter out further, but I suspect that refusniks are clustered in certain communities, so will become endemic for a period of months or longer.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
If they haven't then it'll last precisely as long as it takes them to realise "Hang on, the Government keeps boring on about these wonderful vaccines - but what about me?"
And if they introduce a vaccine apartheid pass system so the olds can go out whilst the youngsters are imprisoned, they'll certainly bloody notice then.
The important thing to remember, certainly as far as international travel is concerned, is that it will be the travel companies themselves and their insurers who will require vaccine confirmation documents and, most likely, the countries as well
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
There was an interesting piece on "lockdown secrets" at the end of Channel 4 news. It seems quite a few people rather like it and don't want it to end.
I don't doubt it. From a selfish point of view as a young'un, while I really miss lots of stuff, a return to Autumn/August level restrictions for the rest of the year would suit me perfectly, in the past 6 months I've saved as much money as I normally would in 2-3 years, and in the summer most people I knew back at college are around, while there are some massive drawbacks, at times it's felt an awful lot like being a teenager again.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
Of course. This is PB.
Incidentally, musing over this chart, and projecting to a population of 10 times that of Israel, with a similar vaccination rate assumed. We should anticipate 150-200 covid deaths per day after everyone is offered vaccination.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
Of course. This is PB.
Incidentally, musing over this chart, and projecting to a population of 10 times that of Israel, with a similar vaccination rate assumed. We should anticipate 150-200 covid deaths per day after everyone is offered vaccination.
I don't see how you can make that inference. We're already there through the lockdown we had four months below that level last year without any vaccines at all. We will be opening up much more cautiously than Israel and with higher levels of herd immunity.
Just fairly straightforward extrapolation. Vaccines will have a failure rate, particularly with those not getting a booster, and with the unvaccinated. Israeli numbers may peter out further, but I suspect that refusniks are clustered in certain communities, so will become endemic for a period of months or longer.
But if the incidence rate is lower while the rest are vaccinated, then surely deaths will be lower?
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.
This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.
How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.
Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
“the kind of people who take vaccines”.
Really? Is this true Contrarian?
???
I have taken plenty of vaccines, including most recently a flu vaccine (which I paid for privately) in the autumn of 2019.
I am sure the vaccines are safe and very effective. And that is one reason I am wondering why we are not out of lockdown when 25 million people have been given them.
I work from home and my contact with people outside my bubble is almost zero. Indoors, completely zero.
Its just not a priority. When we open up, it will be and I will have a vaccine.
But to be clear you have been offered a vaccine, and refused it? Why?
I got sent a letter recently and I just have not bothered to make an appointment. Its not like I told some poor NHS person to go f8ck themselves.
Unfortunately, being a vaccine refusenik during a pandemic is equivalent to telling all of us to go fuck ourselves. If enough people get the vaccine, then we achieve the herd immunity that you've been telling us you want, just without more people dying unnecessarily, and all this is over. I have no problem whatsoever with right-wing individualism - I'm a big fan, in fact - but you're so far off the scale I can barely see you from where I am.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
If they haven't then it'll last precisely as long as it takes them to realise "Hang on, the Government keeps boring on about these wonderful vaccines - but what about me?"
And if they introduce a vaccine apartheid pass system so the olds can go out whilst the youngsters are imprisoned, they'll certainly bloody notice then.
The important thing to remember, certainly as far as international travel is concerned, is that it will be the travel companies themselves and their insurers who will require vaccine confirmation documents and, most likely, the countries themselves
I wasn't talking about international travel. I mean, granted, creating a situation where all the over 50s have been done twice and can have playtime whilst all the under 50s are stuck at home til God knows when is bad enough. But no, I was talking about the Government slapping access bans on pubs, restaurants and everything else on the unvaccinated.
I wouldn't put it past them. They only care about the old.
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
We're still going to have millions of first doses done in April as well anyway, just maybe not as many as the 8-10m we'd like, probably more like 4-5m.
Are we really going to have 4-5m first jabs? Does that square with the government cancelling all first jabs, outside the vulnerable groups, in April?
The vax prog has already moved on to cohort 9, people aged 50-55. That's 2.8m people who are guaranteed a first dose between now and mid April.
But that's it. They aren't going beyond cohort 9. If they had 4-5m jabs available in April, surely they would be moving beyond cohort 9. They don't plan to, at the moment.
You often have expert insight, so maybe I am missing something
I've had a pretty "good lockdown" - wfh, HAD to go out the house to see people (horses need mucking out), but also do get to see friends there; nice garden, been out running plenty. But I'd also like it to fuck off as soon as possible.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
Of course. This is PB.
Incidentally, musing over this chart, and projecting to a population of 10 times that of Israel, with a similar vaccination rate assumed. We should anticipate 150-200 covid deaths per day after everyone is offered vaccination.
I don't see how you can make that inference. We're already there through the lockdown we had four months below that level last year without any vaccines at all. We will be opening up much more cautiously than Israel and with higher levels of herd immunity.
Just fairly straightforward extrapolation. Vaccines will have a failure rate, particularly with those not getting a booster, and with the unvaccinated. Israeli numbers may peter out further, but I suspect that refusniks are clustered in certain communities, so will become endemic for a period of months or longer.
I don't think a straightforward extrapolation works. You've just given one example there of how the distribution of refusniks is uneven, and this will affect the behaviour of the virus while it is endemic.
It's a much slower rate than we'd like but we also have Novavax in April too and there's a huge first shipment plus 2-3m per week ramping up to 5m per week in May. Again if we stick to the manufacturer recommendation and hold back 50% of doses then we could easily do 1-1.5m of these rising to 2.5m per week of first doses, plus whatever we have of Moderna. I personally think we're still on track for 3m first doses done per week of these two vaccines from May onwards plus the second dose programme for those two in groups 10 and 11 in addition to second Pfizer and AZ for groups 1-9.
Max, has the delivery schedule for Novavax changed? The UK government press release mentions that deliveries are due to begin in the second half of the year. It would be fantastic we’re now expecting the first tranche in April.
While I hate to piss on everyone’s conspiracy parade, is anything that was in today’s news all that much different from what was reported in this FT tweet from ...(checks)...three days ago?
If the exact nature of the problems is already known then why were we not told what they were and how long they were likely to delay the deliveries, rather than being served a diet of guff about the bloody over 50s second jabs? It shouldn't be that damned hard.
Does occur to me that maybe we are a bunch of obsessives obsessing over stuff that the vast majority of people will not even notice?
If they haven't then it'll last precisely as long as it takes them to realise "Hang on, the Government keeps boring on about these wonderful vaccines - but what about me?"
And if they introduce a vaccine apartheid pass system so the olds can go out whilst the youngsters are imprisoned, they'll certainly bloody notice then.
The important thing to remember, certainly as far as international travel is concerned, is that it will be the travel companies themselves and their insurers who will require vaccine confirmation documents and, most likely, the countries as well
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
There was an interesting piece on "lockdown secrets" at the end of Channel 4 news. It seems quite a few people rather like it and don't want it to end.
I really really want it to end. I have had some seriously bad times, and I've seen others suffer much worse than me. Some terribly
However, there have been upsides. I have a better relationship with my kids. I have learned to cook quite complex dishes, and I have discovered that it isn't complex. I have bought a puppy, which turns out to be adorable.
And this last lockdown, because it is so long and soooo intense, has turned out to be good for my work. I have never knapped better, as it is all I have to do and all there is to do
I have been working throughout, so haven't missed too much. I miss the theatre and football, but am not that bothered by the rest. Like many others I have rediscovered domestic joys. Mrs Foxy misses shopping, but I have enough stuff to last me out.
I do miss wearing proper clothes. I have a half dozen suits not worn in a year, and I do like to dress well. Scrubs are so saggy and baggy.
Much hysteria around vaccine supplies tonight, a bit less about our European friends/enemies I suppose (except from those who personally blame VDL for the letter on vaccines that has circulated tonight).
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
We're still going to have millions of first doses done in April as well anyway, just maybe not as many as the 8-10m we'd like, probably more like 4-5m.
How do we keep that up without heading into group 10. Doctors start inventing stuff to get people into G6, the likes of @contrarian rounded up and forcibly jabbed ?
I think we will do G10 from the second week of April with the new vaccines in limited numbers and then ramp those two up just as we did with AZ and Pfizer in December/January. If we don't invite G10 from when we get Moderna doses in April they will be sitting in the fridge doing nothing. Even with the restrictions on supply that are being talked about there will still be some number of them coming in from the first week of April and that will increase through the month. We also have some number of Novavax doses ready to go as soon as authorisation is given and again, they'll be sitting in the fridge doing nothing unles G10 is invited to book appointments.
I don't think the situation has actually changed very much. There was always going to be a switchover from AZ and Pfizer to Moderna and Novavax around April and May and that would inevitably lead to a new ramp up period.
Comments
But form is temporary, class is permanent.
Really? Is this true Contrarian?
The manufacturing slots for that will all be gone now.
Mrs Foxy had her second Pfizer due on 18 March, but now cancelled and postponed. I am not sure she needs it as she has had the bug and one dose so is probably brimming with antibodies already.
Also, there is no answer to my question. How can this simultaneously be a problem with AZ, and yet a problem with vaccine imports, when we supposedly don't import AZ (apart from that vague noise about India a few weeks back)?
It is mysterious. Mysteries are not good during plagues.
--AS
If we've had about three weeks of relative drought, then three of plenty, then four or five - at least - of drought, then how do we know that the drought isn't going to go on and on and on? Nothing has been said about the cause of the latest setback nor about what happens after April. Into such empty vacuums, speculation spreads faster than the fucking virus.
Produced on mass. Pressure to get it in service. How is it quality checked?
But right now can't get either.
You have to choose the location first. So you can't just get "any appointment anywhere in the North" as an option.
I keep refreshing and new appointments come up occasionally but am not quick enough to nab one as of yet.
Thank you. You are a top bloke!
Why doesn’t the government just say, look if you are in your forties and have no UHC, you are just going to have to wait a month?
Most people by now are aware of the low level of risk to Group 11.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1371178689669558275
Indeed, an existentialist might argue that making bad decisions is the only way to have control over your own life. To dociley make just socially acceptable decisions is to lose all autonomy.
Sadly, it may just be our turn to experience a slowdown. At least you've had a shot - pity the rest of us.
I have taken plenty of vaccines, including most recently a flu vaccine (which I paid for privately) in the autumn of 2019.
I am sure the vaccines are safe and very effective. And that is one reason I am wondering why we are not out of lockdown when 25 million people have been given them.
I work from home and my contact with people outside my bubble is almost zero. Indoors, completely zero.
Its just not a priority. When we open up, it will be and I will have a vaccine.
It's a great result for the liberal parties (VVD and D66), poor for the centre-right (CDA and CU), the Greens and the Socialists.
Edit: Unless it's just a bit of clumsy bureaucratese that simply means "supply".
So maybe it is just really shoddy PR by the government, who probably did not expect that letter to leak? If they didn't expect it, they were fools, of course it would leak
And the confusion over imports/AZ is just Laura K being fed false info. Probably
https://qz.com/436056/singapores-forced-housing-integration-fueled-its-economic-success/
We should still lob a grenade or two, just for the ridiculous, damaging smear of AZ
But why the hysteria? Given the volume of first jabs done in January, the need for second doses in April was surely always going to reduce the scope for first jabs in April? First jabs would only have kept pace with a huge increase in supply. So it looks like such an increase isn't going to happen, for whatever reason, but I don't see this as too much of a setback.
There will still be millions of jabs in April, just that a lot of them will be second doses, surely?
And from April the 12 week period from the fist dose ends so they have to start doing the oldies again.
Incidentally, musing over this chart, and projecting to a population of 10 times that of Israel, with a similar vaccination rate assumed. We should anticipate 150-200 covid deaths per day after everyone is offered vaccination.
https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1372146363488698375?s=19
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2021/03/C1204-covid-19-vaccination-deployment-next-steps-on-uptake-and-supply.pdf
"...there will be a significant reduction in weekly supply available from manufacturers beginning in the week commencing 29 March, meaning volumes for first doses will be significantly constrained. They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."
I’ve sunk into a kind of monastic solitude. I don’t do anything except work. Sleep. Work. Go on PB. See my older daughter and her new dog. Nothing else. I am inert. Not especially unhappy. But immobile, and silent
Nothing changes. One day is the same as the next. I feel like a peasant turned to stone for dancing on the Sabbath. The rain falls. Lichen grows.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccination-programme/guidance-for-vaccination-centres/
How ironic that a government full of ex-journos is caught out when a letter published on an open site is discovered by journos.
This isn't an unexpectedly lost by-election, FFS
I don't know any of her music.
And if they introduce a vaccine apartheid pass system so the olds can go out whilst the youngsters are imprisoned, they'll certainly bloody notice then.
I know it has to end and head says the sooner he better. But it would be dishonest to say I haven't had a really great time.
However, there have been upsides. I have a better relationship with my kids. I have learned to cook quite complex dishes, and I have discovered that it isn't complex. I have bought a puppy, which turns out to be adorable.
And this last lockdown, because it is so long and soooo intense, has turned out to be good for my work. I have never knapped better, as it is all I have to do and all there is to do
The AZN vaccine almost certainly uses precursors from abroad. We were also previously importing glass vials, and that was a bottleneck.
Plus, as you say, there are AZ imports from India.
Personally, I like TSE's explanation of AZ worrying about a bad batch giving all the negative publicity. Those factories will have been running at 100% and the chance of scheduled maintenance being deferred has to be high.
That of course is mainly a factor of the protection taking a while to kick in.
I wouldn't put it past them. They only care about the old.
The vax prog has already moved on to cohort 9, people aged 50-55. That's 2.8m people who are guaranteed a first dose between now and mid April.
But that's it. They aren't going beyond cohort 9. If they had 4-5m jabs available in April, surely they would be moving beyond cohort 9. They don't plan to, at the moment.
You often have expert insight, so maybe I am missing something
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/novavax-publishes-positive-efficacy-data-for-its-covid-19-vaccine
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/17/po-to-restart-uk-cruises-this-summer-but-only-for-vaccinated-passengers
I do miss wearing proper clothes. I have a half dozen suits not worn in a year, and I do like to dress well. Scrubs are so saggy and baggy.
I don't think the situation has actually changed very much. There was always going to be a switchover from AZ and Pfizer to Moderna and Novavax around April and May and that would inevitably lead to a new ramp up period.