My father says today has seen the highest number of no shows/cancellations since he became involved.
Across all ages/backgrounds.
First or second doses? So long as people come for the second jabs, I don't care about 50 somethings who don't show up for their first. I'm fairly confident we're out of the woods in terms of the NHS.
I don't care about anyone dying who doesn't show up for their vaccine.
Except that the no-shows won't result in other people outside Phase One being promoted, at least not to any significant degree. All that will happen is that family doctors will end up wasting long hours of their time contacting the holdouts all through April and trying to persuade them to turn up.
Plus, of course, all the refuseniks get plugged into the SPI-M calamity models and increase the likelihood of us all being locked up for longer. Whether or not someone in a hospital bed is a vaccinated person who sadly didn't get enough protection or one of these stupid dumb fucks who wouldn't have it in the first place makes no difference whatsoever to the occupancy level of the hospital.
On the subject of under 50s vaccination, personally I'd be a bit annoyed if we all get AZ as we have to wait 12 weeks for the second dose, I'm of the opinion that this is figuring into the JVCI's calculation and putting a pause while we wait to build up supplies of vaccines which don't need that might actually be part of it. I'd rather get my first dose in mid May with a second dose 4 weeks later in June than my first dose in April and then having to wait until the middle of July for the second one. In terms of personal risk there really isn't much difference for us going out with or without a vaccine.
Edit - don't get me wrong, if they offered me AZ I'd 100% get it, I'd just be irritated by the 12 week wait for my vaccine passport.
That's an interesting calculation. Obviously far too complicated for our wonderful journalists, so I don't blame the government not going into such details.
One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.
The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later.
Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.
I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
Who's "they" though? My 2nd jab is being organised by my useless GP so I really hope they're on the ball in remembering to book me in at the right time.
The same people who have organized the roll out thus far. It really isn't difficult. They will have a record of whoever was vaccinated at their site, along with the vaccine type, and the date by which they need a second vaccine. Each week they query that list, work out how many vaccines are needed, and request that number (or request more, and offer slots for more first timers). It's utterly trivial (so probably won't work).
Hardly trivial to do that at scale! Especially when the Pfizer allocations have to be modulo 975.
Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?
The timetable has gone in the dustbin.
Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.
for what that is worth.
All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
That's true, to an extent.
Yet the 12 April beer garden date is also key.
Not least because I'm gagging for a pint.
It struck me during that press conference that the people giving it had no comprehension whatever about the privations of lockdown and how desperate many people are for its end.
None whatever.
Agreed. It's like its all a massive medical experiment in a lab isolated from the outside world.
Someone (I forget who) used the analogy of running a marathon only to find that, coming in to the home straight, the finish line was always just another 100 yards away. You couldn't design a more perfect torture if you tried. God knows how this is affecting the mental health and future mindset of the the youth of today.
One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.
The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later.
Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.
I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
Who's "they" though? My 2nd jab is being organised by my useless GP so I really hope they're on the ball in remembering to book me in at the right time.
The same people who have organized the roll out thus far. It really isn't difficult. They will have a record of whoever was vaccinated at their site, along with the vaccine type, and the date by which they need a second vaccine. Each week they query that list, work out how many vaccines are needed, and request that number (or request more, and offer slots for more first timers). It's utterly trivial (so probably won't work).
Hardly trivial to do that at scale! Especially when the Pfizer allocations have to be modulo 975.
That's why you have a computer program allocate it for you.
So have we got to the bottom of the bad news re vaccines? Because Tigger Hancock was making sound like no real issue, but seems like a serious issue if no under 50s for April.
My father says today has seen the highest number of no shows/cancellations since he became involved.
Across all ages/backgrounds.
First or second doses? So long as people come for the second jabs, I don't care about 50 somethings who don't show up for their first. I'm fairly confident we're out of the woods in terms of the NHS.
I don't care about anyone dying who doesn't show up for their vaccine.
Except that the no-shows won't result in other people outside Phase One being promoted, at least not to any significant degree. All that will happen is that family doctors will end up wasting long hours of their time contacting the holdouts all through April and trying to persuade them to turn up.
Plus, of course, all the refuseniks get plugged into the SPI-M calamity models and increase the likelihood of us all being locked up for longer. Whether or not someone in a hospital bed is a vaccinated person who sadly didn't get enough protection or one of these stupid dumb fucks who wouldn't have it in the first place makes no difference whatsoever to the occupancy level of the hospital.
Not that I'm doubting @TheScreamingEagles but if it's a big problem it will show up in the stats.
Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.
But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.
However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.
Why were you chastising someone for doing something that at the time was perfectly legal and within government guidance?
Because it was clearly moronic and selfish. Just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should or haven't you learnt that over the past year?
Selfish is a word bandied around here way, way too often.
At that time, many people has skiing trips booked and the government said it was fine for them to go, and the law said it was fine for them to go.
Sure, an anonymous bloke called Gideon on the internet told them it was selfish, so I guess they should have listened to him, rather than their own government, the NHS and the government of the destination country, which was welcoming travellers.
I don't think I can improve upon my short comment so I will leave it there.
That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?
I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.
Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
You alright there, Corporal Jones?
The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.
Edit: same for everyone else.
Wouldn't be much of a thread if we all STFU...
Not mocking someone who is clearly anxious does nothing to affect the high quality of the thread.
Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?
The timetable has gone in the dustbin.
Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.
for what that is worth.
All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
Now that the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, the government really needs to disconnect the unlockdown roadmap from the vaccination program. For the mental health of the country, we can't have every glitch in the rollout pushing back the release dates. Enough is enough.
Frankly I'm amazed that the vast majority of us have put up with this for so long ... a testament to the rather sinister behavioural psychologist team employed to manipulate us into compliance. I would like to see an inquiry into their methods so we can see exactly how ministers were advised to scare most of the population sh*tless.
The government will do exactly as it likes until the people of great Britain say enough is enough.
There are few signs we are anywhere close to that point. People who are opposed to lockdown tell you there is no groundswell of support. Trust me, I am one of them.
Pretty sure that as soon as I turn 50 the country will elect a Corbynista style govt and switch from shafting under 50s to over 50s.
Not unless you're very young it won't. The electorate is still aging. The gerontocracy has at least a couple of decades left to run, I think.
Are you in TSE's Dad's neck of the woods? Get yourself down to a vaccine centre at the end of the day if so - do it tomorrow. You'll feel a lot rosier once jabbed.
No. Just the GP surgery doing 'em here, and they're all by appointment. I somehow doubt that either hanging about outside the doors after work looking forlorn, or walking in and doing some special pleading with the receptionist, would make the blindest bit of difference.
I've decided I'm just going to have to play Russian roulette with the disease. It's at comparatively low prevalence throughout Southern England now, and especially round my neck of the woods.
I've had enough of going back and forth to work and the supermarket and nothing else, just the same as my husband, who is still technically meant to be shielding, jacked it in once his first shot had had its three weeks to work and started going to said supermarket again.
Any little freedoms we can reasonably get away with, regardless of whether they're compliant with the rules or not, we are going to enjoy. We're done with lockdown. We can't go on and on and on living like this with no end date to look forward to.
This time he called someone (MP or staff, not sure) an antisemite and islamophobe. No idea whether true or not. But he's enjoying the publicity and taking a "so sue me and send me a letter before action" stance.
Time will tell. Here's the vid. I'd say it is an optimistic definition of "harassment", but the law is a law unto itself. Although the staying when asked to leave is a push.
Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.
But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.
However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.
We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.
"Eventually" ain't good enough.
From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
Key phrase is could last 4/52. Not will. As max is constantly saying we will soon be drowning in vaccines. I know today feels bleak, but there was always going to be a point when the 2nd shots started going in in scale, with a scale back for the new 1st shots. Maybe take a time out and try to relax. You have my sympathy as this is clearly difficult for you, but we will get there.
Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?
The timetable has gone in the dustbin.
Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.
for what that is worth.
All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
That's true, to an extent.
Yet the 12 April beer garden date is also key.
Not least because I'm gagging for a pint.
It struck me during that press conference that the people giving it had no comprehension whatever about the privations of lockdown and how desperate many people are for its end.
None whatever.
Yes. When JVT casually said "just a few more months" I wanted to punch his stupid fat face
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
I see the latest fake-news being spread by anti-vax crazies on Facebook and Instagram is that medical devices, such as COVID test swabs, being sterilised with ethylene oxide is somehow dangerous.
The only reasoning I can see is that it "sounds scary".
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
Take a step back. We could never have expected the vaccine roll-out to happen as quickly and effectively as it has. A setback within the context of an extraordinary achievement requires a level of perspective. What is happening in this country right now continues to be absolutely magnificent.
On a related note, the VDL stuff today was for show and nothing more. Take it from me, the time it would take to march-in, seize IP rights and then force the relevant companies to share the necessary data and know-how required for manufacture is going to be far, far longer than it will take to secure properly functioning supply lines. She is sabre rattling for domestic consumption because the Commission has ballsed up monumentally as the leaders of the big member states slept at the wheel. If a British PM had been as spectacularly incompetent we would be seeing similar diversion. What it does illustrate is the best argument the Brexiteers had for the UK leaving the EU - the lack of Commission accountability and how that enables so many to hide, meaning mistakes go unpunished.
So have we got to the bottom of the bad news re vaccines? Because Tigger Hancock was making sound like no real issue, but seems like a serious issue if no under 50s for April.
Under 50s has always been by the end of July. Presumably there will be other vaccines in use by then. It might mean there's a lot more vaccination later than earlier, but the government still think the target can be met.
Meanwhile. Amidst all the talk of refuseniks and delays, this 54 year old desperately wants a jab and is being told "Not eligible". Online, by the surgery, and by 119.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.
Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?
The timetable has gone in the dustbin.
Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.
for what that is worth.
All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
Now that the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, the government really needs to disconnect the unlockdown roadmap from the vaccination program. For the mental health of the country, we can't have every glitch in the rollout pushing back the release dates. Enough is enough.
Frankly I'm amazed that the vast majority of us have put up with this for so long ... a testament to the rather sinister behavioural psychologist team employed to manipulate us into compliance. I would like to see an inquiry into their methods so we can see exactly how ministers were advised to scare most of the population sh*tless.
The government will do exactly as it likes until the people of great Britain say enough is enough.
There are few signs we are anywhere close to that point. People who are opposed to lockdown tell you there is no groundswell of support. Trust me, I am one of them.
I know, me too.
But that was my point; I'm fascinated by the grotesque effectiveness of the communications strategy and what it might mean for how government manipulates the people of Britain in the future. I'd like to know more about how they did it because I wouldn't have thought it possible to impose house arrest on the whole of Britain for months on end. I know as a culture we are reluctant to break the rules but this is unbelievable.
The fact that there is no credible lockdown opposition is deeply, deeply worrying given the damage being done to the country - I would have to assume that dismissing lockdown opponents as cranks confined to the echo chamber of youtube and talk radio was part of the strategy.
Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?
The timetable has gone in the dustbin.
Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.
for what that is worth.
All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
That's true, to an extent.
Yet the 12 April beer garden date is also key.
Not least because I'm gagging for a pint.
It struck me during that press conference that the people giving it had no comprehension whatever about the privations of lockdown and how desperate many people are for its end.
None whatever.
Yes. When JVT casually said "just a few more months" I wanted to punch his stupid fat face
The reason for this is that there is no pressure on either Hancock or Van Tam. The opposition is largely on side and the fringe who cry freedom under big pressure.
Look at this forum. Posters line up to batter those who question the policies or question the motives of the leading players. Others pile on. The rest cheer.
Meanwhile. Amidst all the talk of refuseniks and delays, this 54 year old desperately wants a jab and is being told "Not eligible". Online, by the surgery, and by 119.
My brother in law is 51 and wasn't on the national list until 6pm this evening despite the website saying all over 50s could book. Keep hitting refresh...
So have we got to the bottom of the bad news re vaccines? Because Tigger Hancock was making sound like no real issue, but seems like a serious issue if no under 50s for April.
AZ are having production issues. I think that this sort of thing was built into the timetable in any event. Hence Hancock being quite, as you say, tiggerish this evening.
Take a step back. We could never have expected the vaccine roll-out to happen as quickly and effectively as it has. A setback within the context of an extraordinary achievement requires a level of perspective. What is happening in this country right now continues to be absolutely magnificent.
On a related note, the VDL stuff today was for show and nothing more. Take it from me, the time it would take to march-in, seize IP rights and then force the relevant companies to share the necessary data and know-how required for manufacture is going to be far, far longer than it will take to secure properly functioning supply lines. She is sabre rattling for domestic consumption because the Commission has ballsed up monumentally as the leaders of the big member states slept at the wheel. If a British PM had been as spectacularly incompetent we would be seeing similar diversion. What it does illustrate is the best argument the Brexiteers had for the UK leaving the EU - the lack of Commission accountability and how that enables so many to hide, meaning mistakes go unpunished.
BiB - possibly, though I'm not certain about that.
But. And it's a fucking big but. You're right that if Boris was pulling this kind of stunt, Starmer and every other opposition politician (and a fair few Tory MPs - we'd be speculating on letters going into Brady) would be laying into him. Our media would be going bananas.
Take a step back. We could never have expected the vaccine roll-out to happen as quickly and effectively as it has. A setback within the context of an extraordinary achievement requires a level of perspective. What is happening in this country right now continues to be absolutely magnificent.
On a related note, the VDL stuff today was for show and nothing more. Take it from me, the time it would take to march-in, seize IP rights and then force the relevant companies to share the necessary data and know-how required for manufacture is going to be far, far longer than it will take to secure properly functioning supply lines. She is sabre rattling for domestic consumption because the Commission has ballsed up monumentally as the leaders of the big member states slept at the wheel. If a British PM had been as spectacularly incompetent we would be seeing similar diversion. What it does illustrate is the best argument the Brexiteers had for the UK leaving the EU - the lack of Commission accountability and how that enables so many to hide, meaning mistakes go unpunished.
If a British PM bad balls up this badly and then making wild threats like this, the men in grey suits would have been around by now telling them their service would no longer be required.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply.
Is it impossible, tho? To magic up more supply?
Britain is a rich country (albeit with debts). The Russians and Chinese are selling jabs. India is churning out jabs by the squillion
Is it therefore impossible to secure 10m for a billion quid, which would keep the vax programme motoring until supplies regain momentum in May? A billion quid would be a bargain, given that we spent about 9 trillion on a near-pointless test and trace system
Pay a billion. Send the RAF and British Airways to pick them up. They aren't doing much else. Sorted
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.
But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.
However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.
We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.
"Eventually" ain't good enough.
From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
Key phrase is could last 4/52. Not will. As max is constantly saying we will soon be drowning in vaccines. I know today feels bleak, but there was always going to be a point when the 2nd shots started going in in scale, with a scale back for the new 1st shots. Maybe take a time out and try to relax. You have my sympathy as this is clearly difficult for you, but we will get there.
"Soon." Soon... is soon May, or June, or August or November? As I said before, we waited patiently for the supply to ramp back up in March, it's finally done it for all of three weeks, and now we've got four or five coming after that (and possibly a lot more for all we know) where supply has crashed again, and there's nothing left over to extend the project to the under 50s.
Jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. Well, we shall see if the timetable for letting us all out of prison is stuck to, or if that turns into another case of jam tomorrow. Regardless, I'm done with lockdown. My options to wilfully violate it are limited, but any that present themselves will be gleefully taken.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Take a step back. We could never have expected the vaccine roll-out to happen as quickly and effectively as it has. A setback within the context of an extraordinary achievement requires a level of perspective. What is happening in this country right now continues to be absolutely magnificent.
On a related note, the VDL stuff today was for show and nothing more. Take it from me, the time it would take to march-in, seize IP rights and then force the relevant companies to share the necessary data and know-how required for manufacture is going to be far, far longer than it will take to secure properly functioning supply lines. She is sabre rattling for domestic consumption because the Commission has ballsed up monumentally as the leaders of the big member states slept at the wheel. If a British PM had been as spectacularly incompetent we would be seeing similar diversion. What it does illustrate is the best argument the Brexiteers had for the UK leaving the EU - the lack of Commission accountability and how that enables so many to hide, meaning mistakes go unpunished.
If a British PM bad balls up this badly and then making wild threats like this, the men in grey suits would have been around by now telling them their service would no longer be required.
I'm not sure the Tories would have ditched Boris, but there'd at least be big speculation. The EU? Not so much.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply.
Is it impossible, tho? To magic up more supply?
Britain is a rich country (albeit with debts). The Russians and Chinese are selling jabs. India is churning out jabs by the squillion
Is it therefore impossible to secure 10m for a billion quid, which would keep the vax programme motoring until supplies regain momentum in May? A billion quid would be a bargain, given that we spent about 9 trillion on a near-pointless test and trace system
Pay a billion. Send the RAF and British Airways to pick them up. They aren't doing much else. Sorted
Ashworth's question is purely cosmetic. He's going through the motions.
Labour is about to grant a conservative government six more months of sweeping unchecked power. That is the reality. There's no real opposition here.
Of course I may be completely wrong but I can’t see this announcement having a measurable effect on the roadmap. A third of us have had Covid, half of adults have been vaccinated. As a result maybe two thirds of the population now protected from serious disease? And the vast majority of those in the most vulnerable groups? Yeah, supply problems are a pain in the arse, but at least we can say to the EU that we too have issues with this, and they have surely been factored in anyway.
Looking at the specifics this is my guess on the calculation that's been made by the JVCI:
1. Supply of Pfizer is uncertain and supply of AZ seems to have had some unforeseen technical issues. 2. We have a backlog of 15m doses of mainly Pfizer and some AZ to do in April to ensure that groups 1-4 are fully immunised with two doses before the May unlockdown date. 3. We expect to receive around 15m doses of both of these vaccine in the month of April, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less but somewhere around that number. 4. We're almost half way through our Pfizer supply so doing new first doses of Pfizer will become impossible soon anyway. 5. The under 50s cohort is at minimal risk of hospitalisation and as long as groups 1-4 are fully immunised before the May unlockdown date the risk of a big surge in hospitalisations is very low. 6. We will get two new vaccines that are commencing deliveries in April, Moderna from the first week and Novavax around 2-3 weeks after approval. 7. The new vaccines can be administered with just a 2-4 week gap between doses to get the same level of efficacy as AZ has with the 12 week gap. 8. There are 12m 5-17 year olds in the country and AZ is looking like it will get approved for those age groups fairly soon, especially with the level of testing we now have in schools. 9. Put points 7 and 8 together and it starts to make sense to reserve new AZ deliveries for the school age cohorts for a summer vaccination programme before school starts and use the new vaccines for 18-49 year olds with a maximum 4 week gap between doses.
Anyway, that's the scenario I think is playing out right now. I think point 8 is overlooked by a lot of people. I can imagine that the government wants the vast majority of school kids vaccinated before the start of the next school year and that means having 24m AZ doses ready to go at short notice when approval is given.
Meanwhile. Amidst all the talk of refuseniks and delays, this 54 year old desperately wants a jab and is being told "Not eligible". Online, by the surgery, and by 119.
My brother in law is 51 and wasn't on the national list until 6pm this evening despite the website saying all over 50s could book. Keep hitting refresh...
Thanks very much for that. Am getting mildly irked as quite a substantial number of people younger than me I know have had the jab already. And pretty much everyone 50+ has been able to get an appointment. Except me
Meanwhile. Amidst all the talk of refuseniks and delays, this 54 year old desperately wants a jab and is being told "Not eligible". Online, by the surgery, and by 119.
My brother in law is 51 and wasn't on the national list until 6pm this evening despite the website saying all over 50s could book. Keep hitting refresh...
One of the reasons for national level press conferences and announcements is to send messages through entire systems.
So Hanncock announcing "All over 50s" may well shake the tree in a few places....
On the subject of under 50s vaccination, personally I'd be a bit annoyed if we all get AZ as we have to wait 12 weeks for the second dose, I'm of the opinion that this is figuring into the JVCI's calculation and putting a pause while we wait to build up supplies of vaccines which don't need that might actually be part of it. I'd rather get my first dose in mid May with a second dose 4 weeks later in June than my first dose in April and then having to wait until the middle of July for the second one. In terms of personal risk there really isn't much difference for us going out with or without a vaccine.
Edit - don't get me wrong, if they offered me AZ I'd 100% get it, I'd just be irritated by the 12 week wait for my vaccine passport.
That's an interesting calculation. Obviously far too complicated for our wonderful journalists, so I don't blame the government not going into such details.
I know a number of managers for GPs & GP groups and its fair to say that not one of them has said anything other than they were working on pretty tight rations of the AZN vaccine over the last couple of months. They heard there was availability but when it came to placing the order, things were not that straightforward. One of the biggest complaints was along the lines of 'I have a cohort of 200 over 70s, and I can get them done in no time but i can only order a maximum 100 doses in the latest batch.
This suggests an extremely tight hold on supply to keep things coming on a constant drip feed.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply.
Is it impossible, tho? To magic up more supply?
Britain is a rich country (albeit with debts). The Russians and Chinese are selling jabs. India is churning out jabs by the squillion
Is it therefore impossible to secure 10m for a billion quid, which would keep the vax programme motoring until supplies regain momentum in May? A billion quid would be a bargain, given that we spent about 9 trillion on a near-pointless test and trace system
Pay a billion. Send the RAF and British Airways to pick them up. They aren't doing much else. Sorted
It would have to be the Oxford vaccine from India because the others aren't approved.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Well what a weak point that is. Even North Korea probably educates its young. And you haven;t answered my point. Why do they want those powers now?
Take a step back. We could never have expected the vaccine roll-out to happen as quickly and effectively as it has. A setback within the context of an extraordinary achievement requires a level of perspective. What is happening in this country right now continues to be absolutely magnificent.
On a related note, the VDL stuff today was for show and nothing more. Take it from me, the time it would take to march-in, seize IP rights and then force the relevant companies to share the necessary data and know-how required for manufacture is going to be far, far longer than it will take to secure properly functioning supply lines. She is sabre rattling for domestic consumption because the Commission has ballsed up monumentally as the leaders of the big member states slept at the wheel. If a British PM had been as spectacularly incompetent we would be seeing similar diversion. What it does illustrate is the best argument the Brexiteers had for the UK leaving the EU - the lack of Commission accountability and how that enables so many to hide, meaning mistakes go unpunished.
BiB - possibly, though I'm not certain about that.
But. And it's a fucking big but. You're right that if Boris was pulling this kind of stunt, Starmer and every other opposition politician (and a fair few Tory MPs - we'd be speculating on letters going into Brady) would be laying into him. Our media would be going bananas.
VDL just carries on as she likes.
Who is to say no to her?
Her political history is being protected by Merkel, repeatedly. So anyone considering taking her on must assume that this would be going against the German government.
As Southern Observer observes, no seizures etc would have any effect on vaccine availability in the next few months.
What they might do is provide political cover in various countries.
Looking at the specifics this is my guess on the calculation that's been made by the JVCI:
1. Supply of Pfizer is uncertain and supply of AZ seems to have had some unforeseen technical issues. 2. We have a backlog of 15m doses of mainly Pfizer and some AZ to do in April to ensure that groups 1-4 are fully immunised with two doses before the May unlockdown date. 3. We expect to receive around 15m doses of both of these vaccine in the month of April, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less but somewhere around that number. 4. We're almost half way through our Pfizer supply so doing new first doses of Pfizer will become impossible soon anyway. 5. The under 50s cohort is at minimal risk of hospitalisation and as long as groups 1-4 are fully immunised before the May unlockdown date the risk of a big surge in hospitalisations is very low. 6. We will get two new vaccines that are commencing deliveries in April, Moderna from the first week and Novavax around 2-3 weeks after approval. 7. The new vaccines can be administered with just a 2-4 week gap between doses to get the same level of efficacy as AZ has with the 12 week gap. 8. There are 12m 5-17 year olds in the country and AZ is looking like it will get approved for those age groups fairly soon, especially with the level of testing we now have in schools. 9. Put points 7 and 8 together and it starts to make sense to reserve new AZ deliveries for the school age cohorts for a summer vaccination programme before school starts and use the new vaccines for 18-49 year olds with a maximum 4 week gap between doses.
Anyway, that's the scenario I think is playing out right now. I think point 8 is overlooked by a lot of people. I can imagine that the government wants the vast majority of school kids vaccinated before the start of the next school year and that means having 24m AZ doses ready to go at short notice when approval is given.
Might kids get it before the 18-50s as well given schools are one of the biggest vectors?
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.
Did you actually read that tweet?
How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?
To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...
Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply.
Is it impossible, tho? To magic up more supply?
Britain is a rich country (albeit with debts). The Russians and Chinese are selling jabs. India is churning out jabs by the squillion
Is it therefore impossible to secure 10m for a billion quid, which would keep the vax programme motoring until supplies regain momentum in May? A billion quid would be a bargain, given that we spent about 9 trillion on a near-pointless test and trace system
Pay a billion. Send the RAF and British Airways to pick them up. They aren't doing much else. Sorted
I thought UKG had already purchased a batch of AZN off the Indian production line.
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Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?
If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.
This time I think you're mistaken. He's not asking Hancock to magic up more supplies, he's asking for clarification on what the Hell is wrong here.
What we got out of Hancock in that presser was meaningless waffle about sorting the olds. Yes, we know sorting the olds is important. We're glad you're sorting the olds. Doesn't do anything to address the question of why there's only the means left to sort the olds. Everyone else wants some bloody idea of how much longer we're meant to be waiting - because if the supply has collapsed for April, and no indication whatever is given as to what happens beyond that, then we're fully entitled to be concerned that May, June and July will be shit as well.
And that's without going into the question raised by @Leon of whether or not it would be possible simply to buy more to unblock the plumbing. It probably isn't, but it would be nice to know that the Government at least fucking tried.
Meanwhile. Amidst all the talk of refuseniks and delays, this 54 year old desperately wants a jab and is being told "Not eligible". Online, by the surgery, and by 119.
My brother in law is 51 and wasn't on the national list until 6pm this evening despite the website saying all over 50s could book. Keep hitting refresh...
One of the reasons for national level press conferences and announcements is to send messages through entire systems.
So Hanncock announcing "All over 50s" may well shake the tree in a few places....
Didn't he say 2million texts were about to go out inviting over 50s?
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Well what a weak point that is. Even North Korea probably educates its young. And you haven;t answered my point. Why do they want those powers now?
A weak point? You spent a year telling us that nothing was more important than opening the schools and giving children an education and now that the government's done it, it's irrelevant?
The government needs the powers for another 3 months to complete the roadmap and is asking for 6 just in case. I suppose that must mean we're living in North Korea. Parliament can always say no if it likes.
Meanwhile. Amidst all the talk of refuseniks and delays, this 54 year old desperately wants a jab and is being told "Not eligible". Online, by the surgery, and by 119.
My brother in law is 51 and wasn't on the national list until 6pm this evening despite the website saying all over 50s could book. Keep hitting refresh...
One of the reasons for national level press conferences and announcements is to send messages through entire systems.
So Hanncock announcing "All over 50s" may well shake the tree in a few places....
Didn't he say 2million texts were about to go out inviting over 50s?
Yes. But see the quotes above. Sometimes it is remarkable the extent to which people don't know about their own jobs.
Looking at the specifics this is my guess on the calculation that's been made by the JVCI:
1. Supply of Pfizer is uncertain and supply of AZ seems to have had some unforeseen technical issues. 2. We have a backlog of 15m doses of mainly Pfizer and some AZ to do in April to ensure that groups 1-4 are fully immunised with two doses before the May unlockdown date. 3. We expect to receive around 15m doses of both of these vaccine in the month of April, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less but somewhere around that number. 4. We're almost half way through our Pfizer supply so doing new first doses of Pfizer will become impossible soon anyway. 5. The under 50s cohort is at minimal risk of hospitalisation and as long as groups 1-4 are fully immunised before the May unlockdown date the risk of a big surge in hospitalisations is very low. 6. We will get two new vaccines that are commencing deliveries in April, Moderna from the first week and Novavax around 2-3 weeks after approval. 7. The new vaccines can be administered with just a 2-4 week gap between doses to get the same level of efficacy as AZ has with the 12 week gap. 8. There are 12m 5-17 year olds in the country and AZ is looking like it will get approved for those age groups fairly soon, especially with the level of testing we now have in schools. 9. Put points 7 and 8 together and it starts to make sense to reserve new AZ deliveries for the school age cohorts for a summer vaccination programme before school starts and use the new vaccines for 18-49 year olds with a maximum 4 week gap between doses.
Anyway, that's the scenario I think is playing out right now. I think point 8 is overlooked by a lot of people. I can imagine that the government wants the vast majority of school kids vaccinated before the start of the next school year and that means having 24m AZ doses ready to go at short notice when approval is given.
Might kids get it before the 18-50s as well given schools are one of the biggest vectors?
It depends on when approval is sought and given for its use in kids. I actually think this is the overriding factor for the government right now wrt AZ doses, ensure that we have enough ready to go for kids to get jabbed in time for the start of the school year. 18-49 year olds are eligible for Novavax, Moderna, Pfizer and J&J so why use AZ on us when it can be held back for a programme for school age kids.
Personally I'd expect that programme to commence around the time summer holidays start and run into the autumn for second doses given in schools.
Looking at the specifics this is my guess on the calculation that's been made by the JVCI:
1. Supply of Pfizer is uncertain and supply of AZ seems to have had some unforeseen technical issues. 2. We have a backlog of 15m doses of mainly Pfizer and some AZ to do in April to ensure that groups 1-4 are fully immunised with two doses before the May unlockdown date. 3. We expect to receive around 15m doses of both of these vaccine in the month of April, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less but somewhere around that number. 4. We're almost half way through our Pfizer supply so doing new first doses of Pfizer will become impossible soon anyway. 5. The under 50s cohort is at minimal risk of hospitalisation and as long as groups 1-4 are fully immunised before the May unlockdown date the risk of a big surge in hospitalisations is very low. 6. We will get two new vaccines that are commencing deliveries in April, Moderna from the first week and Novavax around 2-3 weeks after approval. 7. The new vaccines can be administered with just a 2-4 week gap between doses to get the same level of efficacy as AZ has with the 12 week gap. 8. There are 12m 5-17 year olds in the country and AZ is looking like it will get approved for those age groups fairly soon, especially with the level of testing we now have in schools. 9. Put points 7 and 8 together and it starts to make sense to reserve new AZ deliveries for the school age cohorts for a summer vaccination programme before school starts and use the new vaccines for 18-49 year olds with a maximum 4 week gap between doses.
Anyway, that's the scenario I think is playing out right now. I think point 8 is overlooked by a lot of people. I can imagine that the government wants the vast majority of school kids vaccinated before the start of the next school year and that means having 24m AZ doses ready to go at short notice when approval is given.
I appreciate this is speculation on your part but the format of the summary is excellent.
Why does this goevernment not have the wit to put out a similarly clear summary based on the actual facts?
If a British PM bad balls up this badly and then making wild threats like this, the men in grey suits would have been around by now telling them their service would no longer be required.
I'm sorry, but this is complete nonsense. British PMs have cocked things up monumentally at the cost of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives, and not been removed from office: Attlee (catastrophic balls-up of the partition of India), Blair (Iraq), Boris (Christmas opening-up, and other Covid mistakes).
There's absolutely nothing unique to the EU in cocking things up. It basically comes down to individuals, and unfortunately they're saddled with Ursula at the moment.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply.
Is it impossible, tho? To magic up more supply?
Britain is a rich country (albeit with debts). The Russians and Chinese are selling jabs. India is churning out jabs by the squillion
Is it therefore impossible to secure 10m for a billion quid, which would keep the vax programme motoring until supplies regain momentum in May? A billion quid would be a bargain, given that we spent about 9 trillion on a near-pointless test and trace system
Pay a billion. Send the RAF and British Airways to pick them up. They aren't doing much else. Sorted
It would have to be the Oxford vaccine from India because the others aren't approved.
Presumably that is all allocated though?
Lets hope Novavax turns up soon.
There’s domestic political pressure building in India - currently their supply is going 50/50 to domestic/export markets, and there’s strong feeling that more should be done to prioritise Indians.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.
Ashworth comes across as a complete spanner, with almost Burgon levels of ignorance combined with self-righteousness.
Looking at the specifics this is my guess on the calculation that's been made by the JVCI:
1. Supply of Pfizer is uncertain and supply of AZ seems to have had some unforeseen technical issues. 2. We have a backlog of 15m doses of mainly Pfizer and some AZ to do in April to ensure that groups 1-4 are fully immunised with two doses before the May unlockdown date. 3. We expect to receive around 15m doses of both of these vaccine in the month of April, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less but somewhere around that number. 4. We're almost half way through our Pfizer supply so doing new first doses of Pfizer will become impossible soon anyway. 5. The under 50s cohort is at minimal risk of hospitalisation and as long as groups 1-4 are fully immunised before the May unlockdown date the risk of a big surge in hospitalisations is very low. 6. We will get two new vaccines that are commencing deliveries in April, Moderna from the first week and Novavax around 2-3 weeks after approval. 7. The new vaccines can be administered with just a 2-4 week gap between doses to get the same level of efficacy as AZ has with the 12 week gap. 8. There are 12m 5-17 year olds in the country and AZ is looking like it will get approved for those age groups fairly soon, especially with the level of testing we now have in schools. 9. Put points 7 and 8 together and it starts to make sense to reserve new AZ deliveries for the school age cohorts for a summer vaccination programme before school starts and use the new vaccines for 18-49 year olds with a maximum 4 week gap between doses.
Anyway, that's the scenario I think is playing out right now. I think point 8 is overlooked by a lot of people. I can imagine that the government wants the vast majority of school kids vaccinated before the start of the next school year and that means having 24m AZ doses ready to go at short notice when approval is given.
Might kids get it before the 18-50s as well given schools are one of the biggest vectors?
It depends on when approval is sought and given for its use in kids. I actually think this is the overriding factor for the government right now wrt AZ doses, ensure that we have enough ready to go for kids to get jabbed in time for the start of the school year. 18-49 year olds are eligible for Novavax, Moderna, Pfizer and J&J so why use AZ on us when it can be held back for a programme for school age kids.
Personally I'd expect that programme to commence around the time summer holidays start and run into the autumn for second doses given in schools.
So, in other words, if sufficient supply fails to materialize by July then we have to keep on playing Russian roulette with Covid until September or October whilst they inoculate virtually invulnerable eight year olds? Fucking marvellous.
Looking at the specifics this is my guess on the calculation that's been made by the JVCI:
1. Supply of Pfizer is uncertain and supply of AZ seems to have had some unforeseen technical issues. 2. We have a backlog of 15m doses of mainly Pfizer and some AZ to do in April to ensure that groups 1-4 are fully immunised with two doses before the May unlockdown date. 3. We expect to receive around 15m doses of both of these vaccine in the month of April, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less but somewhere around that number. 4. We're almost half way through our Pfizer supply so doing new first doses of Pfizer will become impossible soon anyway. 5. The under 50s cohort is at minimal risk of hospitalisation and as long as groups 1-4 are fully immunised before the May unlockdown date the risk of a big surge in hospitalisations is very low. 6. We will get two new vaccines that are commencing deliveries in April, Moderna from the first week and Novavax around 2-3 weeks after approval. 7. The new vaccines can be administered with just a 2-4 week gap between doses to get the same level of efficacy as AZ has with the 12 week gap. 8. There are 12m 5-17 year olds in the country and AZ is looking like it will get approved for those age groups fairly soon, especially with the level of testing we now have in schools. 9. Put points 7 and 8 together and it starts to make sense to reserve new AZ deliveries for the school age cohorts for a summer vaccination programme before school starts and use the new vaccines for 18-49 year olds with a maximum 4 week gap between doses.
Anyway, that's the scenario I think is playing out right now. I think point 8 is overlooked by a lot of people. I can imagine that the government wants the vast majority of school kids vaccinated before the start of the next school year and that means having 24m AZ doses ready to go at short notice when approval is given.
I appreciate this is speculation on your part but the format of the summary is excellent.
Why does this goevernment not have the wit to put out a similarly clear summary based on the actual facts?
Do you really think journalists would be able to understand that?
If a British PM bad balls up this badly and then making wild threats like this, the men in grey suits would have been around by now telling them their service would no longer be required.
I'm sorry, but this is complete nonsense. British PMs have cocked things up monumentally at the cost of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives, and not been removed from office: Attlee (catastrophic balls-up of the partition of India), Blair (Iraq), Boris (Christmas opening-up, and other Covid mistakes).
There's absolutely nothing unique to the EU in cocking things up. It basically comes down to individuals, and unfortunately they're saddled with Ursula at the moment.
I'm thinking more if roles were reversed in terms of our PM threatening to stop exports of the vaccine. Perhaps I should have been demanding Boris resign over the number of deaths. But I do think VDL's behaviour is a magnitude worse. It's not the fuck up, it's the response.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.
Did you actually read that tweet?
How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?
To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...
Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.
HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.
At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply.
Is it impossible, tho? To magic up more supply?
Britain is a rich country (albeit with debts). The Russians and Chinese are selling jabs. India is churning out jabs by the squillion
Is it therefore impossible to secure 10m for a billion quid, which would keep the vax programme motoring until supplies regain momentum in May? A billion quid would be a bargain, given that we spent about 9 trillion on a near-pointless test and trace system
Pay a billion. Send the RAF and British Airways to pick them up. They aren't doing much else. Sorted
There is a huge amount of vaccine coming, unless something truly black swan happens we will not be short of vaccine come the summer. But accelerated rolling out of AZ isn't likely to shorten the timetable.
I was reassured on PB, around the time RCS arguing the governments road map too cautious, lumpy supply couldn’t happen, because production is busy ramping up world over, so supply only going to go in one direction.
More interesting though is the individual selfishness embedded in the reaction to this news - I want a pint - I want to travel for holiday - I want my jab and I want it now, call to arms for all under 50’s.
Meanwhile. Amidst all the talk of refuseniks and delays, this 54 year old desperately wants a jab and is being told "Not eligible". Online, by the surgery, and by 119.
My brother in law is 51 and wasn't on the national list until 6pm this evening despite the website saying all over 50s could book. Keep hitting refresh...
Thanks very much for that. Am getting mildly irked as quite a substantial number of people younger than me I know have had the jab already. And pretty much everyone 50+ has been able to get an appointment. Except me
Looking at the specifics this is my guess on the calculation that's been made by the JVCI:
1. Supply of Pfizer is uncertain and supply of AZ seems to have had some unforeseen technical issues. 2. We have a backlog of 15m doses of mainly Pfizer and some AZ to do in April to ensure that groups 1-4 are fully immunised with two doses before the May unlockdown date. 3. We expect to receive around 15m doses of both of these vaccine in the month of April, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less but somewhere around that number. 4. We're almost half way through our Pfizer supply so doing new first doses of Pfizer will become impossible soon anyway. 5. The under 50s cohort is at minimal risk of hospitalisation and as long as groups 1-4 are fully immunised before the May unlockdown date the risk of a big surge in hospitalisations is very low. 6. We will get two new vaccines that are commencing deliveries in April, Moderna from the first week and Novavax around 2-3 weeks after approval. 7. The new vaccines can be administered with just a 2-4 week gap between doses to get the same level of efficacy as AZ has with the 12 week gap. 8. There are 12m 5-17 year olds in the country and AZ is looking like it will get approved for those age groups fairly soon, especially with the level of testing we now have in schools. 9. Put points 7 and 8 together and it starts to make sense to reserve new AZ deliveries for the school age cohorts for a summer vaccination programme before school starts and use the new vaccines for 18-49 year olds with a maximum 4 week gap between doses.
Anyway, that's the scenario I think is playing out right now. I think point 8 is overlooked by a lot of people. I can imagine that the government wants the vast majority of school kids vaccinated before the start of the next school year and that means having 24m AZ doses ready to go at short notice when approval is given.
Might kids get it before the 18-50s as well given schools are one of the biggest vectors?
It depends on when approval is sought and given for its use in kids. I actually think this is the overriding factor for the government right now wrt AZ doses, ensure that we have enough ready to go for kids to get jabbed in time for the start of the school year. 18-49 year olds are eligible for Novavax, Moderna, Pfizer and J&J so why use AZ on us when it can be held back for a programme for school age kids.
Personally I'd expect that programme to commence around the time summer holidays start and run into the autumn for second doses given in schools.
So, in other words, if sufficient supply fails to materialize by July then we have to keep on playing Russian roulette with Covid until September or October whilst they inoculate virtually invulnerable eight year olds? Fucking marvellous.
There's simply no scenario where supply fails to materialise. It just doesn't exist. We have got a fully integrated domestic supply chain for Novavax and it is rated at 20m doses per month. We have a 60m order which is expected to be filled by the end of August from Novavax.
This delay is going to make no material difference to the unlockdown programme and I'd guess no material difference to when under 50s are fully immunised with two doses.
I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
Comments
Good evening, everybody.
Plus, of course, all the refuseniks get plugged into the SPI-M calamity models and increase the likelihood of us all being locked up for longer. Whether or not someone in a hospital bed is a vaccinated person who sadly didn't get enough protection or one of these stupid dumb fucks who wouldn't have it in the first place makes no difference whatsoever to the occupancy level of the hospital.
Someone (I forget who) used the analogy of running a marathon only to find that, coming in to the home straight, the finish line was always just another 100 yards away. You couldn't design a more perfect torture if you tried. God knows how this is affecting the mental health and future mindset of the the youth of today.
The stupidity of the French, Germans, etc, is going to mean more dead British people. My piss boileth
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372239608566706179?s=19
I've decided I'm just going to have to play Russian roulette with the disease. It's at comparatively low prevalence throughout Southern England now, and especially round my neck of the woods.
I've had enough of going back and forth to work and the supermarket and nothing else, just the same as my husband, who is still technically meant to be shielding, jacked it in once his first shot had had its three weeks to work and started going to said supermarket again.
Any little freedoms we can reasonably get away with, regardless of whether they're compliant with the rules or not, we are going to enjoy. We're done with lockdown. We can't go on and on and on living like this with no end date to look forward to.
NPXMP will remember him, as he published at least one article by Nick.
And another by Dr Eoin Clarke, for which he had to apologise to Anna Soubry for the lies in it.
https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2012/11/16/beestonia-shit-gets-real-an-apology-to-soubz-and-a-few-questions/
This time he called someone (MP or staff, not sure) an antisemite and islamophobe. No idea whether true or not. But he's enjoying the publicity and taking a "so sue me and send me a letter before action" stance.
Time will tell. Here's the vid. I'd say it is an optimistic definition of "harassment", but the law is a law unto itself. Although the staying when asked to leave is a push.
https://twitter.com/Beeestonia/status/1372151922946416644
Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?
because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.
And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
The only reasoning I can see is that it "sounds scary".
🤦♂️
On a related note, the VDL stuff today was for show and nothing more. Take it from me, the time it would take to march-in, seize IP rights and then force the relevant companies to share the necessary data and know-how required for manufacture is going to be far, far longer than it will take to secure properly functioning supply lines. She is sabre rattling for domestic consumption because the Commission has ballsed up monumentally as the leaders of the big member states slept at the wheel. If a British PM had been as spectacularly incompetent we would be seeing similar diversion. What it does illustrate is the best argument the Brexiteers had for the UK leaving the EU - the lack of Commission accountability and how that enables so many to hide, meaning mistakes go unpunished.
From cases
From hospitalisations
Amidst all the talk of refuseniks and delays, this 54 year old desperately wants a jab and is being told "Not eligible".
Online, by the surgery, and by 119.
Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.
But that was my point; I'm fascinated by the grotesque effectiveness of the communications strategy and what it might mean for how government manipulates the people of Britain in the future. I'd like to know more about how they did it because I wouldn't have thought it possible to impose house arrest on the whole of Britain for months on end. I know as a culture we are reluctant to break the rules but this is unbelievable.
The fact that there is no credible lockdown opposition is deeply, deeply worrying given the damage being done to the country - I would have to assume that dismissing lockdown opponents as cranks confined to the echo chamber of youtube and talk radio was part of the strategy.
Look at this forum. Posters line up to batter those who question the policies or question the motives of the leading players. Others pile on. The rest cheer.
But. And it's a fucking big but. You're right that if Boris was pulling this kind of stunt, Starmer and every other opposition politician (and a fair few Tory MPs - we'd be speculating on letters going into Brady) would be laying into him. Our media would be going bananas.
VDL just carries on as she likes.
Britain is a rich country (albeit with debts). The Russians and Chinese are selling jabs. India is churning out jabs by the squillion
Is it therefore impossible to secure 10m for a billion quid, which would keep the vax programme motoring until supplies regain momentum in May? A billion quid would be a bargain, given that we spent about 9 trillion on a near-pointless test and trace system
Pay a billion. Send the RAF and British Airways to pick them up. They aren't doing much else. Sorted
Jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. Well, we shall see if the timetable for letting us all out of prison is stuck to, or if that turns into another case of jam tomorrow. Regardless, I'm done with lockdown. My options to wilfully violate it are limited, but any that present themselves will be gleefully taken.
More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.
Labour is about to grant a conservative government six more months of sweeping unchecked power. That is the reality. There's no real opposition here.
Also, what’s happening with Novovax?
1. Supply of Pfizer is uncertain and supply of AZ seems to have had some unforeseen technical issues.
2. We have a backlog of 15m doses of mainly Pfizer and some AZ to do in April to ensure that groups 1-4 are fully immunised with two doses before the May unlockdown date.
3. We expect to receive around 15m doses of both of these vaccine in the month of April, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less but somewhere around that number.
4. We're almost half way through our Pfizer supply so doing new first doses of Pfizer will become impossible soon anyway.
5. The under 50s cohort is at minimal risk of hospitalisation and as long as groups 1-4 are fully immunised before the May unlockdown date the risk of a big surge in hospitalisations is very low.
6. We will get two new vaccines that are commencing deliveries in April, Moderna from the first week and Novavax around 2-3 weeks after approval.
7. The new vaccines can be administered with just a 2-4 week gap between doses to get the same level of efficacy as AZ has with the 12 week gap.
8. There are 12m 5-17 year olds in the country and AZ is looking like it will get approved for those age groups fairly soon, especially with the level of testing we now have in schools.
9. Put points 7 and 8 together and it starts to make sense to reserve new AZ deliveries for the school age cohorts for a summer vaccination programme before school starts and use the new vaccines for 18-49 year olds with a maximum 4 week gap between doses.
Anyway, that's the scenario I think is playing out right now. I think point 8 is overlooked by a lot of people. I can imagine that the government wants the vast majority of school kids vaccinated before the start of the next school year and that means having 24m AZ doses ready to go at short notice when approval is given.
And pretty much everyone 50+ has been able to get an appointment.
Except me
So Hanncock announcing "All over 50s" may well shake the tree in a few places....
This suggests an extremely tight hold on supply to keep things coming on a constant drip feed.
Russia has now recalled their Ambassador to US
Presumably that is all allocated though?
Lets hope Novavax turns up soon.
Her political history is being protected by Merkel, repeatedly. So anyone considering taking her on must assume that this would be going against the German government.
As Southern Observer observes, no seizures etc would have any effect on vaccine availability in the next few months.
What they might do is provide political cover in various countries.
How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?
To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...
Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
"The Optical Illusion of Net Ratings
"The Absurdity"
We asked a hundred people - "Who do you trust to buy a round for their friends in the pub, Boris Johnson or Sir Keir Starmer?" 42 said Boris, 24 Sir Keir, & the rest didn't know. They were asked who they thought would best organise a fun night out;. 42 said Boris, & 20 Sir Keir. In June 2020, another survey asked if either of the two they had personality - Boris won by 34 points, 64 to 30. When asked again in September Boris increased his lead to 42, (67-25). The most recent Opinium poll asked whether the respondents found Boris or Sir Keir likeable - given that people would rather go for a night out with Boris, the choice they think has bags more personalty of the two, it's not much of a surprise that he "got more likes" 43-38. So it would seem uncontroversial to say that Boris is the more likeable of the two men who want to be PM after the next GE. Unless..."
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/
Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.
Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
What we got out of Hancock in that presser was meaningless waffle about sorting the olds. Yes, we know sorting the olds is important. We're glad you're sorting the olds. Doesn't do anything to address the question of why there's only the means left to sort the olds. Everyone else wants some bloody idea of how much longer we're meant to be waiting - because if the supply has collapsed for April, and no indication whatever is given as to what happens beyond that, then we're fully entitled to be concerned that May, June and July will be shit as well.
And that's without going into the question raised by @Leon of whether or not it would be possible simply to buy more to unblock the plumbing. It probably isn't, but it would be nice to know that the Government at least fucking tried.
No appointments available!
The government needs the powers for another 3 months to complete the roadmap and is asking for 6 just in case. I suppose that must mean we're living in North Korea. Parliament can always say no if it likes.
The EU appears to have massively fecked the vaccine situation, it really is remarkable.
Personally I'd expect that programme to commence around the time summer holidays start and run into the autumn for second doses given in schools.
Why does this goevernment not have the wit to put out a similarly clear summary based on the actual facts?
There's absolutely nothing unique to the EU in cocking things up. It basically comes down to individuals, and unfortunately they're saddled with Ursula at the moment.
HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.
At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.
If it does come out that this was the EU - Jesus.
Or is the EU brand now so trashed, they can't really do much more damage?
I was reassured on PB, around the time RCS arguing the governments road map too cautious, lumpy supply couldn’t happen, because production is busy ramping up world over, so supply only going to go in one direction.
More interesting though is the individual selfishness embedded in the reaction to this news - I want a pint - I want to travel for holiday - I want my jab and I want it now, call to arms for all under 50’s.
The site definitely says anyone over 50 can book:
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/
This delay is going to make no material difference to the unlockdown programme and I'd guess no material difference to when under 50s are fully immunised with two doses.