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Newly published YouGov carried out a week ago has CON lead down 4%

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  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,238

    Leon said:



    I really really wonder. It is quite a hefty coincidence - they very same day? Perhaps the EU really have leaned on AZ and Pfizer and they have quietly agreed to redirect supplies.

    Incendiary, if so. Also enraging, because the UK populace is eager for the vax and we have brilliant distribution, meanwhile the fucking EU sits on millions of unused jabs because they have successfully and stupidly trashed the vaccine in front of their own people

    I would happily go to war with the EU, right now. Yeah, they'd win conventionally, but we could nuke them. First Strike on France, take them out, then move on

    It's customary to inflict the first strike on Belgium.
    Isn't that the location of the only fully approved and working OAZ factory on the continent at the moment?

    No drawbacks at all...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that this means that the last breath of hope that the timetable could be accelerated has died but hopefully it is no worse than that in that the timetable had some flexibility within it to deal with "lumpy" supply issues.

    The thing that must have had them thinking pretty hard is that the first dose of most of the vaccines has been so effective is giving second doses really the priority? I think that must have been a tough call.

    Well it obviously is (a priority) if the effects of the first doses start to wear off!
    Agreed but is there any evidence of that?

    If the effect of the second dose is to boost 80% efficacy (which has turned out to be 90%+) to 95% are you really saving more lives by using up available vaccine for second doses as opposed to protecting your 40-50 year olds? I am really not sure. Big Pharma may have insisted of course because that's the basis upon which they got their approvals in the first place.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    Nope, I'm returning to the office on the 5th of July, nothing today will see that slip.
    Hancock's last comment was he is confident the roadmap is on track. Hmmn.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    A black day. And it started so well with the EU providing comic relief
  • I've not been listening, but this is from the BBC summary of the press conference (in the context of real-world data from PHE):

    "Health Secretary Matt Hancock says data shows that after a single dose of the vaccine protection against getting Covid-19 is about 60%, protection against hospitalisation is about 80% and protection against death is about 85%. He says the data also shows if you live with someone who has been vaccinated you have a 30% lower risk of catching Covid-19."

    Does anyone else find this slightly disappointing? Hopefully there will be some proper papers to read at some point.

    --AS
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Covid19 "infant mortality" in Spain caused by the Y2K bug.

    https://twitter.com/DrAndrewThaler/status/1372165325505052673
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Chameleon said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
    Why should young people have to sit inside whilst older people can leave the country? How is that fair?

    We've put our entire lives on hold for you lot.
    You lot eh .......

    Older people have less of their lives to live

    Its a stupid idea

    Next up - if not everyone can afford 2 weeks in the sun no one can go?

    AS I say Labour love to go to the lowest common level
    In all fairness the young have sacrificed a year of their lives over something that holds *no* risk to them, and the entire future bill will be paid by them.
    I'm pleased to hear from you that none of my taxes will go towards paying this back...................
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    alex_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    That sounds like a batch failed QA, or a fridge got switched off.

    It’s a contrast to previous optimism on supply, that was based on already-manufactured doses being in the UK.
    Or they’re just responding to the EU with their constant accusations that AZ are prioritising the U.K. and we have no shortages. It’s also a good way of getting the EU tanks off the AZ lawn.
    The best thing the UK can do is ignore what’s happening in Europe, except for responding to direct questions or allegations as Raab has done today.

    Let them scream, as we get on with putting jabs in arms.

    I’m sticking with the bad batch theory, for now.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    Here is a thought. Just wait and see what falls out of this, if anything.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    The timetable has gone in the dustbin.

    Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692

    I've not been listening, but this is from the BBC summary of the press conference (in the context of real-world data from PHE):

    "Health Secretary Matt Hancock says data shows that after a single dose of the vaccine protection against getting Covid-19 is about 60%, protection against hospitalisation is about 80% and protection against death is about 85%. He says the data also shows if you live with someone who has been vaccinated you have a 30% lower risk of catching Covid-19."

    Does anyone else find this slightly disappointing? Hopefully there will be some proper papers to read at some point.

    --AS

    I wonder how much of the delta between those numbers and 100% is due to timing. I.e. if you get the vaccination and get infected on the same day, it might not help, but at a certain point the protection kicks in.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,228
    Pulpstar said:

    Really quite cheesed off on behalf of my 49 yr old friend who works in food processing

    Mare Antoinette would say "Let him eat cake".

    It wouldn't be very diplomatic, but she wasn't

    On-off-topic. Too many people having kittens on this thread. Have some real ones. One is even a kitler.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxogMfQYW_c
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586

    Covid19 "infant mortality" in Spain caused by the Y2K bug.

    https://twitter.com/DrAndrewThaler/status/1372165325505052673

    First rule of data processing: if you get ridiculous results, the problem has probably been caused by inputting errors.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Andy_JS said:
    Multiply that by a couple hundred to get the real cost of that decision in terms of doses. And there is zero chance they are going to make this pause permanent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Andy_JS said:
    I'm starting to hate our European neighbours. Which is unfair, it is not the fault of the people. It's the fucking moron EU politicians.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried about the predicted slowdown. To me it seems as though the NHS is (rightly) preparing for an EU embargo of Pfizer vaccines and is telling vaccine centres to ensure that second doses aren't missed and to ensure that enough doses are available for the second dose programme. Temporarily halting first dose bookings for group 10 makes sense to me because if it transpires that it's not an issue 40-49 year olds can be booked in very quickly and are all very mobile so don't need to home visits and don't need to be given a centre in walking distance, they can be asked to go a bit further by car or public transport.

    I also think that the current stated supply doesn't include any Novavax doses as it hasn't been approved yet, only Moderna, Pfizer and AZ are in the planned supply.

    All in all, we just need to keep on keeping on and there's no need to panic.

    Somewhat reassuring, but - if you're right - that does suggest HMG believes the EU will ban exports, even if contracted. Which is explosive
    I think it's worst case scenario planning, which again makes a lot of sense from a medical point of view. Halting the first dose programme for Pfizer makes sense until we can be sure that there is enough supply to do all of the necessary second doses of Pfizer over the next few weeks. I'd be shocked if the AZ first dose programme is halted though, especially since that has still got a fair bit of time before it started getting to over a million per week administered.

    When it comes to stuff like this, ensuring that second doses are given to groups 1-4 is a much bigger gain for us than first jabs for 40-49 year olds in terms of hospitalisation and death. Even though I'm under 50 and this potentially effects me I have to support the decision. In any case, I'm not sure it will be as big of a deal as is currently being predicted.
    When is Novovax approval expected?
    Within a couple of weeks at the earliest timetable, mid-April on the latest because there's a bunch of variant data that wasn't present with Pfizer who had a quick rolling review.
    Of course, approval doesn't make supply available. That could take until Autumn for all we know.
    It's already in manufacturing in the UK and Novavax is a vaccine company, they aren't a beginner like AZ having to learn by doing.

    I'd be shocked if the dates for reopening are moved and as Robert and I have pointed out on many occasions, we're weeks away from actually being able to swim in vaccine supply. Also take into account that Moderna and Novavax don't require a 12 week gap like AZ and it seems to have always been the plan to do under 50s with the new vaccines and a much shorter gap. Pushing under 50s out to the middle or end of April is unlikely to make much difference to the overall end of the pandemic.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Floater said:

    Chameleon said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
    Why should young people have to sit inside whilst older people can leave the country? How is that fair?

    We've put our entire lives on hold for you lot.
    You lot eh .......

    Older people have less of their lives to live

    Its a stupid idea

    Next up - if not everyone can afford 2 weeks in the sun no one can go?

    AS I say Labour love to go to the lowest common level
    In all fairness the young have sacrificed a year of their lives over something that holds *no* risk to them, and the entire future bill will be paid by them.
    I'm pleased to hear from you that none of my taxes will go towards paying this back...................
    Compared to someone at the start of their life, very little will.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Coincidence?

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1372242436290977797?s=20

    Or the EU hasn't had the bad news yet (and given the way they treat the bringers of bad news that's hardly surprising...)
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    The timetable has gone in the dustbin.

    Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
    Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.

    for what that is worth.

    All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Here's the thing though. This is hugely irresponsible reporting as usual by journalists (no surprise to see LauraK at the forefront) desperate to break a story before being in control of the facts.

    So you get a leaked letter about a slow down in supply and/or the vaccine programme (it's not clear). How about doing some proper journalism and getting a complete picture before splashing the story as "breaking news" on the BBC? And then putting the Health Secretary on the spot to come out with instant comments that will clearly not be complete and can be packaged however you want them.

    As it is she's "broken" the story, and is now left coming out with random tweets trying to fill in the gaps to try and establish whether this actually is or isn't a big deal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Yokes said:

    Here is a thought. Just wait and see what falls out of this, if anything.

    :o wait, and see? On PB?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    I've not been listening, but this is from the BBC summary of the press conference (in the context of real-world data from PHE):

    "Health Secretary Matt Hancock says data shows that after a single dose of the vaccine protection against getting Covid-19 is about 60%, protection against hospitalisation is about 80% and protection against death is about 85%. He says the data also shows if you live with someone who has been vaccinated you have a 30% lower risk of catching Covid-19."

    Does anyone else find this slightly disappointing? Hopefully there will be some proper papers to read at some point.

    --AS

    The 30% is disappointing. The evidence that you can still get the virus and pass it on after immunisation is accumulating. You may not get sick but those you live with who are not vaccinated can.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350

    Does anyone know what the current NHS guidance is for the gap between the 1st and 2nd dose of Pfizer? I'm seeing conflicting stuff online.

    When I got it they said 2nd jag would be within 12 weeks
  • Andy_JS said:

    Covid19 "infant mortality" in Spain caused by the Y2K bug.

    https://twitter.com/DrAndrewThaler/status/1372165325505052673

    First rule of data processing: if you get ridiculous results, the problem has probably been caused by inputting errors.
    Nah, it is some idiot has ballsed up the formula.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,212
    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
    Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
    You alright there, Corporal Jones?
    The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.

    Edit: same for everyone else.
    Wouldn't be much of a thread if we all STFU...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    The timetable has gone in the dustbin.

    Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
    None, the timetable has always been based on groups 1-4 getting the first dose and then groups 1-9 getting the first dose and then groups 1-9 getting the second dose. Groups 10 and 11 don't figure into the unlockdown timetable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,661
    edited March 2021
    Eeesh.

    https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1372244224209457159

    An MP has apologised after a blogger said a member of his staff showed up at his door to get him to take down an article about him.

    Blogger Matt Turpin shared a video recording an argument with the man on his drive.

    Darren Henry, Conservative member for Broxtowe, said he was "unaware of the exchange" until it went online.

    He added he will be investigating the circumstances and apologised "for any upset caused".
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
    Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
    You alright there, Corporal Jones?
    The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.

    Edit: same for everyone else.
    You been promoted then
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    The timetable has gone in the dustbin.

    Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
    The latter basically. It's supposition. I'm just imagining what all those brains on SPI-M with their magic computers will say to the concept of letting all the under 50s out of prison when most of us are completely unprotected, and then letting us all mix and spread Plague about for God alone knows how long whilst we wait for the latest bottleneck to be cleared.

    If the magic computers give any indication of a fourth wave then we can forget about it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    I don't care about boomers going on holiday so long at the very least I can hang out with 5 friends in my back garden without worrying about the PoPo smashing my door down.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness there is only a 50:50 chance that those 41 wasted vaccinations cost 1 life. Unless they get Kent, of course in which case it could easily be 2 lives.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    alex_ said:

    Clam down dears! We all knew that there would need to be increases in supply once we were simultaneously doing 1st and second doses in tandem. And inevitably that created risks if scaling up couldn’t be maintained. It would be surprising if lockdown easing changed much when all the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    Perhaps it could be a good thing! The rest of us can all get it under the 70+ shielding everyone else live as normal plan. With the bonus that the 70+ don’t need to shield because they’re all vaccinated.

    Just continue lockdown for under 50's and let the over 50's live it up big time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    They just have to get the same number of vaccines as was used the week 12 weeks previous. Not sure it's any more complicated than that.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    The timetable has gone in the dustbin.

    Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
    Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.

    for what that is worth.

    All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
    That's true, to an extent.

    Yet the 12 April beer garden date is also key.

    Not least because I'm gagging for a pint.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428

    maaarsh said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Would be quite a step for Boris to step forward and claim vaccination has going badly and he had to change timetable.

    The timetable is already extremely cautious - can't believe he's going to destroy his biggest governing success by using it to explain more lockdown.
    Even if the vaccines will knock deaths right down, half the population being completely unprotected will mean a massive panic by the modellers over a fourth wave knocking out the hospitals. We're basically fucked.
    Don’t forget prior infection. R significantly lower with 50% and more vaccinated/recovered.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219

    Andy_JS said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Your argument sounds like "If everyone can't do it, no-one should be allowed to do it".
    In this particular case that's right yes. No travelling abroad until everyone has been vaccinated.

    We are all in this together.
    What are you talking about? Have I missed something? AFAIK the likelihood is that a vaccine passport will require either 2nd jab OR negative PCR. With young children exempt.
  • One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    It doesn't have to be exactly 12 weeks to the day.

    My GP is giving me dose 2 in week ten.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Andy_JS said:

    Covid19 "infant mortality" in Spain caused by the Y2K bug.

    https://twitter.com/DrAndrewThaler/status/1372165325505052673

    First rule of data processing: if you get ridiculous results, the problem has probably been caused by inputting errors.
    Yep!

    That sounds like a 1999-era fudge to two-digit dates of birth, that said treat two-digit years as being in the range 1921-2020, unless in the past.

    Then forgot about it, thinking they’d never still be using the same software in 2021, would they?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    The despondency on here wasn’t reflected by Hancock or JVT so far as I could hear. Hancock was almost bouncy. No effort at expectation management. The timetable was never going to be accelerated.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,228
    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    malcolmg said:

    Does anyone know what the current NHS guidance is for the gap between the 1st and 2nd dose of Pfizer? I'm seeing conflicting stuff online.

    When I got it they said 2nd jag would be within 12 weeks

    Well I guess one Jag wasn't enough for John Prescott.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,476

    Coincidence?

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1372242436290977797?s=20

    Or the EU hasn't had the bad news yet (and given the way they treat the bringers of bad news that's hardly surprising...)

    I still suffer a little from deeply held suspicions that we always stitch things up on behalf of the EU behind the scenes in this country, despite our relationship now being transactional. I have to say, Boris frequently confounds my suspicions, which is good. And it's not a rational thing, or good to be suspicious.

    However, I'll be honest that this plays into them a little bit.

    I'm not totally, totally against a little give and take, vaccine diplomacy on this, but we need to be getting HELLA BIG long term concessions/benefits if we are helping them under the radar. Needless to say, if it ever got out that Boris was allowing AZN to get out of their contractual obligations to the UK, he would not be forgiven by the electorate in the same way he's forgiven for his expensive scatter cushions and moral turpitude. This affects peoples lives, directly.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited March 2021
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
    I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2021

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    It doesn't have to be exactly 12 weeks to the day.

    My GP is giving me dose 2 in week ten.
    Yes but it does have to be the right one on the day you turn up. In the case of those booked on the NHS system, many of the second appointments are already booked in (including mine). There was a choice of several days, so it's not the case that you can just rerun the same vaccine 12 weeks later or whatever.
  • I do have some bad news.

    My father says today has seen the highest number of no shows/cancellations since he became involved.

    Across all ages/backgrounds.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness there is only a 50:50 chance that those 41 wasted vaccinations cost 1 life. Unless they get Kent, of course in which case it could easily be 2 lives.
    Are we still ignoring the long term impact of Covid on the body? It's not just a case of counting body bags you know.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    I am seriously wondering what has happened to my letter. Why the hell couldn't we book appointments?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
    I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
    They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Coincidence?

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1372242436290977797?s=20

    Or the EU hasn't had the bad news yet (and given the way they treat the bringers of bad news that's hardly surprising...)

    UK AZ comes from Wales. EU AZ comes from Belgium. No reason why ramping couldn't be going up and down in different directions. At some point AZ will get their issues in Europe sorted out, and the programme will naturally ramp up. Just like it did in the UK.

    It's the reason why the EU rhetoric has been so absurd and outside of reality. It's also probably that the EU are expecting Moderna and J&J to come on stream. And they're ahead in the queue for those.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692
    The slowdown shows that it was right to have a conservative timetable for opening up that we will be able to stick to, rather than an aggressive one that risks being postponed or having to reimpose restrictions.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    Why were you chastising someone for doing something that at the time was perfectly legal and within government guidance?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350

    So, Laura K has asked straight away about the letter. No bloody answer about the lengthy drop in supply *at all*. Just more repetitious waffle about the vulnerable groups. Quelle fucking surprise.

    Actually Hancock's answer made sense in so far as 25,273,226 doses have been completed so there must be a huge catch up

    It is a balancing act
    I agree G, they need to prioritise the older ones and get those 2nd jags in , younger ones can last another couple of months in the house no bother.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,238
    edited March 2021

    Coincidence?

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1372242436290977797?s=20

    Or the EU hasn't had the bad news yet (and given the way they treat the bringers of bad news that's hardly surprising...)

    If the problem is with AZ, it's not so much of an issue for them. Their schedule is much more about Pfizer (about 3 Pfizer jabs to every 1 AZ jab for the next few months).
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    The timetable has gone in the dustbin.

    Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
    Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.

    for what that is worth.

    All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
    That's true, to an extent.

    Yet the 12 April beer garden date is also key.

    Not least because I'm gagging for a pint.
    It struck me during that press conference that the people giving it had no comprehension whatever about the privations of lockdown and how desperate many people are for its end.

    None whatever.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness there is only a 50:50 chance that those 41 wasted vaccinations cost 1 life. Unless they get Kent, of course in which case it could easily be 2 lives.
    Are we still ignoring the long term impact of Covid on the body? It's not just a case of counting body bags you know.
    Oh I know. I thought my comment was bitter enough but feel free to pile on. They absolutely deserve it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,476

    I do have some bad news.

    My father says today has seen the highest number of no shows/cancellations since he became involved.

    Across all ages/backgrounds.

    Good news for people desperately awaiting their vaccination though... When vaccine passports come in, those people will still need to get it, they'll just have put themselves at the back of the queue for getting to do anything fun.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    Chameleon said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
    Why should young people have to sit inside whilst older people can leave the country? How is that fair?

    We've put our entire lives on hold for you lot.
    You lot eh .......

    Older people have less of their lives to live

    Its a stupid idea

    Next up - if not everyone can afford 2 weeks in the sun no one can go?

    AS I say Labour love to go to the lowest common level
    In all fairness the young have sacrificed a year of their lives over something that holds *no* risk to them, and the entire future bill will be paid by them.
    bollox , oldies will be paying till the grave and paying more than the whingers.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
    I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
    They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
    Who's "they" though? My 2nd jab is being organised by my useless GP so I really hope they're on the ball in remembering to book me in at the right time.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,991
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
    Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
    You alright there, Corporal Jones?
    The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.

    Edit: same for everyone else.
    Wouldn't be much of a thread if we all STFU...
    Not mocking someone who is clearly anxious does nothing to affect the high quality of the thread.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    Why were you chastising someone for doing something that at the time was perfectly legal and within government guidance?

    Because it was clearly moronic and selfish. Just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should or haven't you learnt that over the past year?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    edited March 2021

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
    I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
    They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
    Who's "they" though? My 2nd jab is being organised by my useless GP so I really hope they're on the ball in remembering to book me in at the right time.
    The same people who have organized the roll out thus far. It really isn't difficult. They will have a record of whoever was vaccinated at their site, along with the vaccine type, and the date by which they need a second vaccine. Each week they query that list, work out how many vaccines are needed, and request that number (or request more, and offer slots for more first timers). It's utterly trivial (so probably won't work).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350

    Floater said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
    Why should young people have to sit inside whilst older people can leave the country? How is that fair?

    We've put our entire lives on hold for you lot.
    Away you deluded halfwit, do you think older people have been whooping it up. What a jessie boy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    I do have some bad news.

    My father says today has seen the highest number of no shows/cancellations since he became involved.

    Across all ages/backgrounds.

    That sounds like an open invitation to anyone who wants to get in line at the vaccine centre, towards the end of the day...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    The slowdown shows that it was right to have a conservative timetable for opening up that we will be able to stick to, rather than an aggressive one that risks being postponed or having to reimpose restrictions.

    Yes, this is why the timetable is so conservative, even with these unforeseen supply issues we don't need any delays.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    DougSeal said:

    The despondency on here wasn’t reflected by Hancock or JVT so far as I could hear. Hancock was almost bouncy. No effort at expectation management. The timetable was never going to be accelerated.

    Agreed, the government has allowed itself wriggle room for so-called test events, which I expect it to use in edge cases like Royal Ascot and the England vs Scotland Euro 2021 match but the timetable itself won't move I don't think.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
    The letter said it could last as long as four weeks. Not that it will last that long, and certainly nothing about it lasting for four or five months.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Pretty sure that as soon as I turn 50 the country will elect a Corbynista style govt and switch from shafting under 50s to over 50s.

    Not unless you're very young it won't. The electorate is still aging. The gerontocracy has at least a couple of decades left to run, I think.
  • Dutch election results

    Evening all, for anyone interested polls close 8pm UK time and the results will appear here:

    https://www.verkiezingensite.nl/

    Not expecting huge changes since 2017 result, expecting Rutte IV government to be VVD, CDA, D66, and if not CU then either PvdA or possibly GL.

    Will try and post TV link once I know it's working ok and not geoblocked.

    Thanks

    DC
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    RobD said:

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
    The letter said it could last as long as four weeks. Not that it will last that long, and certainly nothing about it lasting for four or five months.
    And what about the next letter?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited March 2021

    I do have some bad news.

    My father says today has seen the highest number of no shows/cancellations since he became involved.

    Across all ages/backgrounds.

    First or second doses? So long as people come for the second jabs, I don't care about 50 somethings who don't show up for their first. I'm fairly confident we're out of the woods in terms of the NHS.

    I don't care about anyone dying who doesn't show up for their vaccine.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
    I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
    They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
    Who's "they" though? My 2nd jab is being organised by my useless GP so I really hope they're on the ball in remembering to book me in at the right time.
    The same people who have organized the roll out thus far. It really isn't difficult. They will have a record of whoever was vaccinated at their site, along with the vaccine type, and the date by which they need a second vaccine. Each week they query that list, work out how many vaccines are needed, and request that number (or request more, and offer slots for more first timers). It's utterly trivial (so probably won't work).
    Actually lots of people who got their first doses from their GP won't get their second from their GP. GP contracts for vaccines aren't openended and some won't be renewing*. It's no picnic organising repeated vaccination sessions, especially when it's becoming harder to get people in the relevant groups, and they need to get back to their other work as well. They will I think be responsible for reminding people to book their second dose, but they will be directed to other centres.

    *Remember when the contracts were originally set up their was an expectation that there would still be a 3 week period between doses.

  • I've not been listening, but this is from the BBC summary of the press conference (in the context of real-world data from PHE):

    "Health Secretary Matt Hancock says data shows that after a single dose of the vaccine protection against getting Covid-19 is about 60%, protection against hospitalisation is about 80% and protection against death is about 85%. He says the data also shows if you live with someone who has been vaccinated you have a 30% lower risk of catching Covid-19."

    Does anyone else find this slightly disappointing? Hopefully there will be some proper papers to read at some point.

    --AS

    I wonder how much of the delta between those numbers and 100% is due to timing. I.e. if you get the vaccination and get infected on the same day, it might not help, but at a certain point the protection kicks in.
    I'd hope they would have taken that into account (e.g. only count cases that present at least 3-4 weeks after vaccination), but hopefully there will be some details released. They might already have been released for all I know, but I haven't seen them.

    --AS
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
    Vaccine passports for international travel are not being introduced from the point of view of the UK allowing its citizens to travel; rather they are being considered because of demands from countries that UK citizens want to travel to.
  • Sandpit said:

    I do have some bad news.

    My father says today has seen the highest number of no shows/cancellations since he became involved.

    Across all ages/backgrounds.

    That sounds like an open invitation to anyone who wants to get in line at the vaccine centre, towards the end of the day...
    Yup.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    RobD said:

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
    The letter said it could last as long as four weeks. Not that it will last that long, and certainly nothing about it lasting for four or five months.
    The key word in that being "could". There is always going to be some level of worst case scenario planning, especially wrt the second dose programme which for groups 1-4 is ethically and medically a necessity. Ensuring the supply exists for them is really important and this is essentially saying, just in case the supply chain seizes up unexpectedly when we've got to do 2-3m second doses per week let's schedule fewer first doses. Ideally the supply chain won't seize and we also get Novavax approved and supplies of it in mid-April.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    The timetable has gone in the dustbin.

    Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
    Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.

    for what that is worth.

    All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
    Now that the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, the government really needs to disconnect the unlockdown roadmap from the vaccination program. For the mental health of the country, we can't have every glitch in the rollout pushing back the release dates. Enough is enough.

    Frankly I'm amazed that the vast majority of us have put up with this for so long ... a testament to the rather sinister behavioural psychologist team employed to manipulate us into compliance. I would like to see an inquiry into their methods so we can see exactly how ministers were advised to scare most of the population sh*tless.
  • tlg86 said:

    I do have some bad news.

    My father says today has seen the highest number of no shows/cancellations since he became involved.

    Across all ages/backgrounds.

    First or second doses? So long as people come for the second jabs, I don't care about 50 somethings who don't show up for their first. I'm fairly confident we're out of the woods in terms of the NHS.

    I don't care about anyone dying who doesn't show up for their vaccine.
    First doses.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
    I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
    They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
    Who's "they" though? My 2nd jab is being organised by my useless GP so I really hope they're on the ball in remembering to book me in at the right time.
    The same people who have organized the roll out thus far. It really isn't difficult. They will have a record of whoever was vaccinated at their site, along with the vaccine type, and the date by which they need a second vaccine. Each week they query that list, work out how many vaccines are needed, and request that number (or request more, and offer slots for more first timers). It's utterly trivial (so probably won't work).
    Actually lots of people who got their first doses from their GP won't get their second from their GP. GP contracts for vaccines aren't openended and some won't be renewing*. It's no picnic organising repeated vaccination sessions, especially when it's becoming harder to get people in the relevant groups, and they need to get back to their other work as well. They will I think be responsible for reminding people to book their second dose, but they will be directed to other centres.

    *Remember when the contracts were originally set up their was an expectation that there would still be a 3 week period between doses.

    Then it is organized on a regional level, assigning people to various vaccination sites. With the centralised NHS database it really is trivial to work out how much is needed in which area.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,212
    DavidL said:

    I've not been listening, but this is from the BBC summary of the press conference (in the context of real-world data from PHE):

    "Health Secretary Matt Hancock says data shows that after a single dose of the vaccine protection against getting Covid-19 is about 60%, protection against hospitalisation is about 80% and protection against death is about 85%. He says the data also shows if you live with someone who has been vaccinated you have a 30% lower risk of catching Covid-19."

    Does anyone else find this slightly disappointing? Hopefully there will be some proper papers to read at some point.

    --AS

    The 30% is disappointing. The evidence that you can still get the virus and pass it on after immunisation is accumulating. You may not get sick but those you live with who are not vaccinated can.
    Of course - but that data presumably includes those who have got the virus from someone other than those they live with, so the risk reduction from those vaccinated is probably rather more than 30%.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
    I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
    They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
    Who's "they" though? My 2nd jab is being organised by my useless GP so I really hope they're on the ball in remembering to book me in at the right time.
    The same people who have organized the roll out thus far. It really isn't difficult. They will have a record of whoever was vaccinated at their site, along with the vaccine type, and the date by which they need a second vaccine. Each week they query that list, work out how many vaccines are needed, and request that number (or request more, and offer slots for more first timers). It's utterly trivial (so probably won't work).
    Actually lots of people who got their first doses from their GP won't get their second from their GP. GP contracts for vaccines aren't openended and some won't be renewing*. It's no picnic organising repeated vaccination sessions, especially when it's becoming harder to get people in the relevant groups, and they need to get back to their other work as well. They will I think be responsible for reminding people to book their second dose, but they will be directed to other centres.

    *Remember when the contracts were originally set up their was an expectation that there would still be a 3 week period between doses.

    I'm Group 6 and I was told that I'd hear about my 2nd Pfizer jab from my GP. 🤷‍♂️
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    Why were you chastising someone for doing something that at the time was perfectly legal and within government guidance?

    Because it was clearly moronic and selfish. Just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should or haven't you learnt that over the past year?
    Selfish is a word bandied around here way, way too often.

    At that time, many people has skiing trips booked and the government said it was fine for them to go, and the law said it was fine for them to go.

    Sure, an anonymous bloke called Gideon on the internet told them it was selfish, so I guess they should have listened to him, rather than their own government, the NHS and the government of the destination country, which was welcoming travellers.
  • DavidL said:

    I've not been listening, but this is from the BBC summary of the press conference (in the context of real-world data from PHE):

    "Health Secretary Matt Hancock says data shows that after a single dose of the vaccine protection against getting Covid-19 is about 60%, protection against hospitalisation is about 80% and protection against death is about 85%. He says the data also shows if you live with someone who has been vaccinated you have a 30% lower risk of catching Covid-19."

    Does anyone else find this slightly disappointing? Hopefully there will be some proper papers to read at some point.

    --AS

    The 30% is disappointing. The evidence that you can still get the virus and pass it on after immunisation is accumulating. You may not get sick but those you live with who are not vaccinated can.
    Well, don't forget that people can catch the virus from outside their household (and indeed in many cases they must do so, otherwise lockdown would have halted all transmission) or from a different member of their household who hasn't been vaccinated, such as a child. So we'd never expect that 30% number to be anywhere near 100%. It's very difficult to know how what a good number is.

    --AS
  • alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
    I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
    They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
    Who's "they" though? My 2nd jab is being organised by my useless GP so I really hope they're on the ball in remembering to book me in at the right time.
    The same people who have organized the roll out thus far. It really isn't difficult. They will have a record of whoever was vaccinated at their site, along with the vaccine type, and the date by which they need a second vaccine. Each week they query that list, work out how many vaccines are needed, and request that number (or request more, and offer slots for more first timers). It's utterly trivial (so probably won't work).
    Actually lots of people who got their first doses from their GP won't get their second from their GP. GP contracts for vaccines aren't openended and some won't be renewing*. It's no picnic organising repeated vaccination sessions, especially when it's becoming harder to get people in the relevant groups, and they need to get back to their other work as well. They will I think be responsible for reminding people to book their second dose, but they will be directed to other centres.

    *Remember when the contracts were originally set up their was an expectation that there would still be a 3 week period between doses.

    I'm Group 6 and I was told that I'd hear about my 2nd Pfizer jab from my GP. 🤷‍♂️
    Yes, me too. Very glad I have the first dose booked in for Saturday! If I get redirected to the (relatively distant) mass vax centre for the 2nd jab that would be okay with me, as I'll feel much safer to take a taxi at that stage.

    --AS
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    Charles said:
    No 4 weeks. It’s medical usage.

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    No
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    MaxPB said:

    The slowdown shows that it was right to have a conservative timetable for opening up that we will be able to stick to, rather than an aggressive one that risks being postponed or having to reimpose restrictions.

    Yes, this is why the timetable is so conservative, even with these unforeseen supply issues we don't need any delays.
    Yes Hancock seemed quite confident the initial targets will still be met.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    edited March 2021
    On the subject of under 50s vaccination, personally I'd be a bit annoyed if we all get AZ as we have to wait 12 weeks for the second dose, I'm of the opinion that this is figuring into the JVCI's calculation and putting a pause while we wait to build up supplies of vaccines which don't need that might actually be part of it. I'd rather get my first dose in mid May with a second dose 4 weeks later in June than my first dose in April and then having to wait until the middle of July for the second one. In terms of personal risk there really isn't much difference for us going out with or without a vaccine.

    Edit - don't get me wrong, if they offered me AZ I'd 100% get it, I'd just be irritated by the 12 week wait for my vaccine passport.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,476

    Pretty sure that as soon as I turn 50 the country will elect a Corbynista style govt and switch from shafting under 50s to over 50s.

    Not unless you're very young it won't. The electorate is still aging. The gerontocracy has at least a couple of decades left to run, I think.
    Are you in TSE's Dad's neck of the woods? Get yourself down to a vaccine centre at the end of the day if so - do it tomorrow. You'll feel a lot rosier once jabbed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355
    From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56435549

    "Government sources are suggesting the amount produced by manufacturers is below the expected yields."

    Just that we are not suing AZN, I presume....

    It was worth noting that people were talking about "why not open earlier?" given projections that the vaccinations would be done months early.

    Perhaps there was a safety factor built in.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    My view: clearly a setback but IF it's for four weeks only then the 31 July target for all adults for a first dose will still be easily achieved.

    Yes this means any chance of an acceleration of 17 May and 21 June is gone but this wasn't on the table anyway.

    This reduces the chance of foreign holidays a bit but the EU shambles is what will kill off EU based holidays for this year.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing which slightly puzzles me is how they are going to manage getting the right second doses in the right places on the right days, given that the second jabees will need the same vaccine as their first one. In the case of Pfizer in particular, which has short life once defrosted and comes in packs of 985 or whatever it is, I can't see how they are are going to get this right.

    The target is weeks 9-12, it doesn't have to be on the exact day 12 weeks later. :D
    Since the first jabs were also in batches of 975, that would be just inviting the same people back.

    I was given a date10 weeks hence, and presumably they are all more or less sequential?
    I got my 1st Pfizer jab at a clinic full of people getting their 2nd Pfizer jab so it isn't quite so simple.
    They know exactly how many people in each area need one. It isn't as if they are going to be waiting for people to turn up without any idea who is coming.
    Who's "they" though? My 2nd jab is being organised by my useless GP so I really hope they're on the ball in remembering to book me in at the right time.
    The same people who have organized the roll out thus far. It really isn't difficult. They will have a record of whoever was vaccinated at their site, along with the vaccine type, and the date by which they need a second vaccine. Each week they query that list, work out how many vaccines are needed, and request that number (or request more, and offer slots for more first timers). It's utterly trivial (so probably won't work).
    Actually lots of people who got their first doses from their GP won't get their second from their GP. GP contracts for vaccines aren't openended and some won't be renewing*. It's no picnic organising repeated vaccination sessions, especially when it's becoming harder to get people in the relevant groups, and they need to get back to their other work as well. They will I think be responsible for reminding people to book their second dose, but they will be directed to other centres.

    *Remember when the contracts were originally set up their was an expectation that there would still be a 3 week period between doses.

    I'm Group 6 and I was told that I'd hear about my 2nd Pfizer jab from my GP. 🤷‍♂️
    Some GP practices will be renewing their contracts, some won't. Some are making decent money from it, for others it's a nightmare and they've had enough. And you'll hear from your GP. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll administer it.

    My mum's a doctor and she said that one thing they're having difficulty with is contacting people like carers who "came along for the ride" when the people they were caring for were vaccinated. Because in many cases they have their NHS number (for entry on the system) but as they often aren't patients they don't have easy access to contact details. They can get it centrally, but it's administratively burdensome. Existing patients they can just do mass texts etc.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,212
    .
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
    Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
    You alright there, Corporal Jones?
    The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.

    Edit: same for everyone else.
    Wouldn't be much of a thread if we all STFU...
    Not mocking someone who is clearly anxious does nothing to affect the high quality of the thread.
    I agree - that wasn't what I meant.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    ridaligo said:

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    The timetable has gone in the dustbin.

    Do you have an single shred of evidence for this or are we rapidly back in PB Hysteria land?
    Hancock's last comment was he was confident the timetable remains on track.

    for what that is worth.

    All the main unfolding of lockdown happens in May and June. Before that, its tokenism.
    Now that the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, the government really needs to disconnect the unlockdown roadmap from the vaccination program. For the mental health of the country, we can't have every glitch in the rollout pushing back the release dates. Enough is enough.

    Frankly I'm amazed that the vast majority of us have put up with this for so long ... a testament to the rather sinister behavioural psychologist team employed to manipulate us into compliance. I would like to see an inquiry into their methods so we can see exactly how ministers were advised to scare most of the population sh*tless.
    The government will do exactly as it likes until the people of great Britain say enough is enough.

    There are few signs we are anywhere close to that point. People who are opposed to lockdown tell you there is no groundswell of support. Trust me, I am one of them.
This discussion has been closed.