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Newly published YouGov carried out a week ago has CON lead down 4%

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Comments

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    Leon said:

    One slender ray of hope. The letter says the contraction "could" last until end April.

    COULD

    Maybe they anticipate there might be more, but they want to under-promise and over-achieve?

    Or equally it 'could' go on until about July. We don't know.
    Apparently this happened in UAE, there was a four week slowdown in the middle of the programme as they had to go back and do all the 2nd jabs. Just read that on Twitter

    So perhaps we are still getting the expected supplies, but not the extra doses, where we thought we could do big numbers of jab one AND jab two at the same time?

    Who knows
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Hancock has been on the happy pills....giggling away.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,152
    edited March 2021
    <

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    It sounds like it
    If they have we need to fucking nuke them.
    But they are talking about constraining unjabbed cohorts. If it was just Pfizer and there was loads of AZN, we just give all the new cohorts AZN, no?

    We were suppoaed to be getting many millions a week by now of AZN.
    One of the striking things is that AZN appear to have really struggled to produce their vaccine at scale. The original plan was to have 30 million doses ready to go last September- that's pretty clearly not happened.

    (source: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUKKBN27K2GU)

    I don't think we know what their current plans in the UK are, but in Europe, they're set to do 70 million doses in April-June. That's less than they originally intended to do for January-March;

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1372154778063671298?s=20

    Yes, it's a remarkable scientific and humanitarian achievement. But something seems significantly not right.
    I agree - this seems like an AZN supply issue to me. However, the Indians don't seem to be having the same issues - or if they are, their production is on a scale that can still produce stratospheric numbers.
    Maybe that's the context for VdL's "highly unwise" (channeling my inner Jeeves) comments today. "Don't think of patching any AZN bottleneck with stuff from the Euro system."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    4 weeks
    Has anyone, ever, used 4/52 to denote "4 weeks"? Very confusing.
    I've seen it in medical records. Not elsewhere.
    Ah, fair enough. Expected from a medic then. Still, why 4/52 when 4wk would suffice for a general audience.
    Given the mood on here today just be grateful its not B52.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    Right for once questions might be worth listening to....

    It's the hope that kills you.
  • Laura on subject
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Here comes Laura K.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Its going to be a month of chasing reluctant people in their 50s whilst those of us under 50 with arms ready will roll our eyes
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Laura K asking Hancock about the vaccine letter on supply.....
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
    Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
    You alright there, Corporal Jones?
    The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.

    Edit: same for everyone else.
    Get over yourself. If you don't laugh at misery, you stay miserable
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    So, Laura K has asked straight away about the letter. No bloody answer about the lengthy drop in supply *at all*. Just more repetitious waffle about the vulnerable groups. Quelle fucking surprise.
  • Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Doesn't really answer the question.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    I don't think I detected an answer in that answer. Let me check the microscope...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Really quite cheesed off on behalf of my 49 yr old friend who works in food processing
  • Pulpstar said:

    Its going to be a month of chasing reluctant people in their 50s whilst those of us under 50 with arms ready will roll our eyes

    It sounds as if the effort is to provide the second doses quickly
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    They've protected the core vote. The rest of us can get fucked.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831
    Yokes said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
    Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
    You alright there, Corporal Jones?
    The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.

    Edit: same for everyone else.
    Get over yourself. If you don't laugh at misery, you stay miserable
    HAB. You can laugh at your own misery. Not someone else's.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    It's not about letting them leave, it's about other countries letting them in. Nothing we can do about entry requirements.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    4 weeks
    Has anyone, ever, used 4/52 to denote "4 weeks"? Very confusing.
    I've seen it in medical records. Not elsewhere.
    Ah, fair enough. Expected from a medic then. Still, why 4/52 when 4wk would suffice for a general audience.
    Given the mood on here today just be grateful its not B52.
    in defence of Black Rook, who is accused of being a bit emosh, this is quite hard to deal with. We have been doing this for a YEAR, and it seemed like we were near the end. Everyone is anxious and jumpy. Just let it end. Will it ever end.

    Hancock looking unconvincing here. Dammit
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,887
    116th.

    This discussion subject seems rather undefined :smile: .
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306

    <

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    It sounds like it
    If they have we need to fucking nuke them.
    But they are talking about constraining unjabbed cohorts. If it was just Pfizer and there was loads of AZN, we just give all the new cohorts AZN, no?

    We were suppoaed to be getting many millions a week by now of AZN.
    One of the striking things is that AZN appear to have really struggled to produce their vaccine at scale. The original plan was to have 30 million doses ready to go last September- that's pretty clearly not happened.

    (source: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUKKBN27K2GU)

    I don't think we know what their current plans in the UK are, but in Europe, they're set to do 70 million doses in April-June. That's less than they originally intended to do for January-March;

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1372154778063671298?s=20

    Yes, it's a remarkable scientific and humanitarian achievement. But something seems significantly not right.
    I agree - this seems like an AZN supply issue to me. However, the Indians don't seem to be having the same issues - or if they are, their production is on a scale that can still produce stratospheric numbers.
    Maybe that's the context for VdL's "highly unwise" (channeling my inner Jeeves) comments today. "Don't think of patching any AZN bottleneck with stuff from the Euro system."
    Perhaps, though it's not something we have any evidence of. If it were the case, I could sort of see where she's coming from, though of course the UK would be 'legally' entitled to those supplies.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Yeah, Hancock isn’t doing much expectation management. It’s fine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Oh god, on to Big Dom nonsense...we don't care, we want to know when will we get jabbed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    Surely the cautious nature of the timetable was to allow for this eventuality.

    I see a lot of talk about the unfairness of letting the jabbed oldies party, but in reality it will be up to unjabbed individuals to decide how much risk to take. I reckon we're at the point where lockdown is now about saving individual lives rather than preventing a catastrophe in the NHS.

    Once the weather is nice we'll be back having BBQs and seeing friends and family. Hopefully the government doesn't get spooked and sticks to the timetable for reopening commercial activities.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    Yep that was the issue from the time they were first mooted.

    The ones who have arguably been made to give up the most are then stuck indoors while everyone else parties.

    Not a great look and hence can't happen, imo.

    And won't happen for that matter. Just went through my local park and it looked like some gang meet out of The Warriors. A lot of black hoodies and puffas on display. Plod, obvs, nowhere to be seeen and who can blame them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Media as usual totally missing the mark.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    edited March 2021

    So, Laura K has asked straight away about the letter. No bloody answer about the lengthy drop in supply *at all*. Just more repetitious waffle about the vulnerable groups. Quelle fucking surprise.

    Actually Hancock's answer made sense in so far as 25,273,226 doses have been completed so there must be a huge catch up

    It is a balancing act
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried about the predicted slowdown. To me it seems as though the NHS is (rightly) preparing for an EU embargo of Pfizer vaccines and is telling vaccine centres to ensure that second doses aren't missed and to ensure that enough doses are available for the second dose programme. Temporarily halting first dose bookings for group 10 makes sense to me because if it transpires that it's not an issue 40-49 year olds can be booked in very quickly and are all very mobile so don't need to home visits and don't need to be given a centre in walking distance, they can be asked to go a bit further by car or public transport.

    I also think that the current stated supply doesn't include any Novavax doses as it hasn't been approved yet, only Moderna, Pfizer and AZ are in the planned supply.

    All in all, we just need to keep on keeping on and there's no need to panic.

    Somewhat reassuring, but - if you're right - that does suggest HMG believes the EU will ban exports, even if contracted. Which is explosive
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    Take it up with the countries requiring them
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
    Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
    You alright there, Corporal Jones?
    The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.

    Edit: same for everyone else.
    Get over yourself. If you don't laugh at misery, you stay miserable
    HAB. You can laugh at your own misery. Not someone else's.
    I wasn't, the point is to make a joke. But here , if you don't like it don't respond to it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried about the predicted slowdown. To me it seems as though the NHS is (rightly) preparing for an EU embargo of Pfizer vaccines and is telling vaccine centres to ensure that second doses aren't missed and to ensure that enough doses are available for the second dose programme. Temporarily halting first dose bookings for group 10 makes sense to me because if it transpires that it's not an issue 40-49 year olds can be booked in very quickly and are all very mobile so don't need to home visits and don't need to be given a centre in walking distance, they can be asked to go a bit further by car or public transport.

    I also think that the current stated supply doesn't include any Novavax doses as it hasn't been approved yet, only Moderna, Pfizer and AZ are in the planned supply.

    All in all, we just need to keep on keeping on and there's no need to panic.

    Somewhat reassuring, but - if you're right - that does suggest HMG believes the EU will ban exports, even if contracted. Which is explosive
    Build those nukes pronto :wink:
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    They've protected the core vote. The rest of us can get fucked.
    I'm critical of Boris Johnson but this is just one of those genuine happenstances that the medical needy happen to be a considerable part of the core vote.

    This is where they are genuinely following the science and medical professional.
    I know. I was responding to the specific point CHB was making about the vaccine passports.

    As I said earlier in the thread, they'll probably introduce them domestically so the rest of us have to rot at home for months whilst the crusties can go out and party as well. Well fuck 'em. If I can't go down the pub til God knows when I'll have friends round to visit or go and meet them in the park. Screw the damned rules. Had enough of em.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454

    So, Laura K has asked straight away about the letter. No bloody answer about the lengthy drop in supply *at all*. Just more repetitious waffle about the vulnerable groups. Quelle fucking surprise.

    It's probably some Europhile civil servant who has "done the right thing by the EU" - and given them our April supplies.

    Meanwhile, the lawyers are running around, headless stylee, wondering if he had ostensible authority to amend the contracts and whether we could get out of it.

    "could".....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    4 weeks
    Has anyone, ever, used 4/52 to denote "4 weeks"? Very confusing.
    I've seen it in medical records. Not elsewhere.
    Ah, fair enough. Expected from a medic then. Still, why 4/52 when 4wk would suffice for a general audience.
    Given the mood on here today just be grateful its not B52.
    in defence of Black Rook, who is accused of being a bit emosh, this is quite hard to deal with. We have been doing this for a YEAR, and it seemed like we were near the end. Everyone is anxious and jumpy. Just let it end. Will it ever end.

    Hancock looking unconvincing here. Dammit
    I completely agree. This lockdown since Christmas has been terrible. I have also found the lack of transparancy about vaccine supply more than a tad unhelpful. More always seems to be a month off.

    I am still waiting for a jab and really thought the end was somewhere in sight.

    My absolute priority, however, is that my son starts University at the beginning of October. I really want things to be back to something like normal by then. This summer is already a write off.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    Better questions
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Good questions from The Daily Mail. That's all we want to hear.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831
    Yokes said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
    Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
    You alright there, Corporal Jones?
    The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.

    Edit: same for everyone else.
    Get over yourself. If you don't laugh at misery, you stay miserable
    HAB. You can laugh at your own misery. Not someone else's.
    I wasn't, the point is to make a joke. But here , if you don't like it don't respond to it.
    Well you made fun of the guy who is evidently anxious atm but that's fine I think we've processed this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    One slender ray of hope. The letter says the contraction "could" last until end April.

    COULD

    Maybe they anticipate there might be more, but they want to under-promise and over-achieve?

    Or equally it 'could' go on until about July. We don't know.
    Apparently this happened in UAE, there was a four week slowdown in the middle of the programme as they had to go back and do all the 2nd jabs. Just read that on Twitter

    So perhaps we are still getting the expected supplies, but not the extra doses, where we thought we could do big numbers of jab one AND jab two at the same time?

    Who knows
    Twitter is, unsurprisingly, wrong.

    There have been a few days of supply issues with mostly Pfizer vaccines, but those have resolved themselves quickly. Appointments are running a few days ahead of time, and have now been opened to over 40s - I should get first dose next week, with any luck!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    MattW said:

    116th.

    This discussion subject seems rather undefined :smile: .

    Welcome to PB.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    4 weeks
    Has anyone, ever, used 4/52 to denote "4 weeks"? Very confusing.
    I've seen it in medical records. Not elsewhere.
    Ah, fair enough. Expected from a medic then. Still, why 4/52 when 4wk would suffice for a general audience.
    Given the mood on here today just be grateful its not B52.
    in defence of Black Rook, who is accused of being a bit emosh, this is quite hard to deal with. We have been doing this for a YEAR, and it seemed like we were near the end. Everyone is anxious and jumpy. Just let it end. Will it ever end.

    Hancock looking unconvincing here. Dammit
    "We are committed to all adults being able to get the jab by the end of July."

    Yeah. If the supply problems are resolved. Let's just say I'm not holding my breath.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    I doubt this is anything to do with the EU. And people aren’t thinking straight if they think the EU might actually block Pfizer exports. Pfizer are meeting their EU delivery targets. They have no obligation to provide additional doses to the EU, so if there was some sort of export ban they’d probably just sit on them. And the U.K. provide the components for manufacture.
  • Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    Pulpstar said:

    Its going to be a month of chasing reluctant people in their 50s whilst those of us under 50 with arms ready will roll our eyes

    It sounds as if the effort is to provide the second doses quickly
    There should be an 84 day gap between doses. Wales seems to have run a shorter gap and got more supply as a result !
  • Floater said:

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    Take it up with the countries requiring them
    PO cruises are requiring them and it is likely they will be required across the travel industry
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Charles said:
    It's not like it is an important letter or anything..... No reason to check it for typos or anything.

    *thud*
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,421
    Just noticed this interesting article in the Spectator.

    "Sean Thomas
    How I’d write Covid: The Thriller"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    So, Laura K has asked straight away about the letter. No bloody answer about the lengthy drop in supply *at all*. Just more repetitious waffle about the vulnerable groups. Quelle fucking surprise.

    It's probably some Europhile civil servant who has "done the right thing by the EU" - and given them our April supplies.

    Meanwhile, the lawyers are running around, headless stylee, wondering if he had ostensible authority to amend the contracts and whether we could get out of it.

    "could".....
    No, it’s not “probably” anything of the kind.

    “It’s the treacherous civil servants” is the first place your mind goes. Yuck.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    I don't watch these things. I just let the relevant news percolate to me via PB and colleagues/friends/family - any information I need to know will find me one way or another. Some people should try it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    One slender ray of hope. The letter says the contraction "could" last until end April.

    COULD

    Maybe they anticipate there might be more, but they want to under-promise and over-achieve?

    Or equally it 'could' go on until about July. We don't know.
    Apparently this happened in UAE, there was a four week slowdown in the middle of the programme as they had to go back and do all the 2nd jabs. Just read that on Twitter

    So perhaps we are still getting the expected supplies, but not the extra doses, where we thought we could do big numbers of jab one AND jab two at the same time?

    Who knows
    Twitter is, unsurprisingly, wrong.

    There have been a few days of supply issues with mostly Pfizer vaccines, but those have resolved themselves quickly. Appointments are running a few days ahead of time, and have now been opened to over 40s - I should get first dose next week, with any luck!

    Crush my feeble hope, why don't you
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    Take it up with the countries requiring them
    PO cruises are requiring them and it is likely they will be required across the travel industry
    Well, I would imagine their lawyers will insist on it.
  • Off Topic

    Raab accuses EU of erecting Irish Sea border! (Guardian)

    Err, isn't that what we signed up to?

    We DEMANDED it. And then signed up to.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried about the predicted slowdown. To me it seems as though the NHS is (rightly) preparing for an EU embargo of Pfizer vaccines and is telling vaccine centres to ensure that second doses aren't missed and to ensure that enough doses are available for the second dose programme. Temporarily halting first dose bookings for group 10 makes sense to me because if it transpires that it's not an issue 40-49 year olds can be booked in very quickly and are all very mobile so don't need to home visits and don't need to be given a centre in walking distance, they can be asked to go a bit further by car or public transport.

    I also think that the current stated supply doesn't include any Novavax doses as it hasn't been approved yet, only Moderna, Pfizer and AZ are in the planned supply.

    All in all, we just need to keep on keeping on and there's no need to panic.

    Somewhat reassuring, but - if you're right - that does suggest HMG believes the EU will ban exports, even if contracted. Which is explosive
    I think it's worst case scenario planning, which again makes a lot of sense from a medical point of view. Halting the first dose programme for Pfizer makes sense until we can be sure that there is enough supply to do all of the necessary second doses of Pfizer over the next few weeks. I'd be shocked if the AZ first dose programme is halted though, especially since that has still got a fair bit of time before it started getting to over a million per week administered.

    When it comes to stuff like this, ensuring that second doses are given to groups 1-4 is a much bigger gain for us than first jabs for 40-49 year olds in terms of hospitalisation and death. Even though I'm under 50 and this potentially effects me I have to support the decision. In any case, I'm not sure it will be as big of a deal as is currently being predicted.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454

    So, Laura K has asked straight away about the letter. No bloody answer about the lengthy drop in supply *at all*. Just more repetitious waffle about the vulnerable groups. Quelle fucking surprise.

    It's probably some Europhile civil servant who has "done the right thing by the EU" - and given them our April supplies.

    Meanwhile, the lawyers are running around, headless stylee, wondering if he had ostensible authority to amend the contracts and whether we could get out of it.

    "could".....
    No, it’s not “probably” anything of the kind.

    “It’s the treacherous civil servants” is the first place your mind goes. Yuck.
    Chill. It was hardly the most likely scenario, was it.

    Or, judging by your over-sensitive reaction - was it?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yokes said:

    That's the entire unlocking timetable after March 29th in the dustbin as well. We're all going to be stuck in fucking lockdown until - when? July? August? The end of the damned year?

    I could live with this bullshit for a bit longer but not for an endless age. Fuck "Stay at fucking home", time to arrange meet-ups with mates and family visits I think.

    Calm down - the rationale for opening up depends on vaccinating groups 1-9 and that hasn't changed, plus the effects of the lockdown on massively reducing the prevalence, and that has happened. I know you are prone to the black dog, and this is poor news, but there is no reason to suggest the opening up will have to change.
    Half of population unprotected = fourth wave = tsunami of new hospital cases (and even the deaths will spike, because the disease will eventually find out the vulnerable individuals who haven't been successfully protected.) The modellers will issue a panic forecast and the Government will stall.
    You alright there, Corporal Jones?
    The guy is obviously upset and anxious. You might have balls the size of cannonballs but cut people some slack who don't. We have had poster after poster saying how challenging they are finding this so, frankly, you can STFU.

    Edit: same for everyone else.
    Get over yourself. If you don't laugh at misery, you stay miserable
    HAB. You can laugh at your own misery. Not someone else's.
    I wasn't, the point is to make a joke. But here , if you don't like it don't respond to it.
    Well you made fun of the guy who is evidently anxious atm but that's fine I think we've processed this.
    Well I'm glad you can leave it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Floater said:

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    Take it up with the countries requiring them
    PO cruises are requiring them and it is likely they will be required across the travel industry
    Cruising is for the Zimmer generation so nobody will be too bothered about that.

    It's when the over 50s are all jetting off to Greece and the under 50s are still being told to stay at fucking home that this will get really bad.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried about the predicted slowdown. To me it seems as though the NHS is (rightly) preparing for an EU embargo of Pfizer vaccines and is telling vaccine centres to ensure that second doses aren't missed and to ensure that enough doses are available for the second dose programme. Temporarily halting first dose bookings for group 10 makes sense to me because if it transpires that it's not an issue 40-49 year olds can be booked in very quickly and are all very mobile so don't need to home visits and don't need to be given a centre in walking distance, they can be asked to go a bit further by car or public transport.

    I also think that the current stated supply doesn't include any Novavax doses as it hasn't been approved yet, only Moderna, Pfizer and AZ are in the planned supply.

    All in all, we just need to keep on keeping on and there's no need to panic.

    Somewhat reassuring, but - if you're right - that does suggest HMG believes the EU will ban exports, even if contracted. Which is explosive
    I think it's worst case scenario planning, which again makes a lot of sense from a medical point of view. Halting the first dose programme for Pfizer makes sense until we can be sure that there is enough supply to do all of the necessary second doses of Pfizer over the next few weeks. I'd be shocked if the AZ first dose programme is halted though, especially since that has still got a fair bit of time before it started getting to over a million per week administered.

    When it comes to stuff like this, ensuring that second doses are given to groups 1-4 is a much bigger gain for us than first jabs for 40-49 year olds in terms of hospitalisation and death. Even though I'm under 50 and this potentially effects me I have to support the decision. In any case, I'm not sure it will be as big of a deal as is currently being predicted.
    When is Novovax approval expected?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,152
    Charles said:
    I think 4/52 is standard medic shorthand for 4 weeks; fifty-twoths of a year.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF
  • JVT is a star
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,421

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Your argument sounds like "If everyone can't do it, no-one should be allowed to do it".
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Van-Tam, entreating us to keep sitting at home: "We are only talking a few more months."

    Some of us can't cope with an ill-defined 'few more months'. A few more months could mean September or October. We've had enough of 'jam tomorrow.'

    Enough.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited March 2021
    Floater said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
    Why should young people have to sit inside whilst older people can leave the country? How is that fair?

    We've put our entire lives on hold for you lot.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Charles said:
    It's not like it is an important letter or anything..... No reason to check it for typos or anything.

    *thud*
    No it obviously means 4 weeks. Otherwise it would say 52/4 given it said 29/3! And presumably the recipients of the letter understood it! Or anyway this was a shorthand by the guy on Twitter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    That sounds like a batch failed QA, or a fridge got switched off.

    It’s a contrast to previous optimism on supply, that was based on already-manufactured doses being in the UK.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    JVT is a star

    He told us not to wear masks. He's a twat
  • Andy_JS said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Your argument sounds like "If everyone can't do it, no-one should be allowed to do it".
    In this particular case that's right yes. No travelling abroad until everyone has been vaccinated.

    We are all in this together.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    No mention of the GP led programme in that letter.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    They've protected the core vote. The rest of us can get fucked.
    I'm critical of Boris Johnson but this is just one of those genuine happenstances that the medical needy happen to be a considerable part of the core vote.

    This is where they are genuinely following the science and medical professionals.
    Being old, I've been vaccinated too.

    Conductor I'm on the bus, please ring the bell!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried about the predicted slowdown. To me it seems as though the NHS is (rightly) preparing for an EU embargo of Pfizer vaccines and is telling vaccine centres to ensure that second doses aren't missed and to ensure that enough doses are available for the second dose programme. Temporarily halting first dose bookings for group 10 makes sense to me because if it transpires that it's not an issue 40-49 year olds can be booked in very quickly and are all very mobile so don't need to home visits and don't need to be given a centre in walking distance, they can be asked to go a bit further by car or public transport.

    I also think that the current stated supply doesn't include any Novavax doses as it hasn't been approved yet, only Moderna, Pfizer and AZ are in the planned supply.

    All in all, we just need to keep on keeping on and there's no need to panic.

    Somewhat reassuring, but - if you're right - that does suggest HMG believes the EU will ban exports, even if contracted. Which is explosive
    I think it's worst case scenario planning, which again makes a lot of sense from a medical point of view. Halting the first dose programme for Pfizer makes sense until we can be sure that there is enough supply to do all of the necessary second doses of Pfizer over the next few weeks. I'd be shocked if the AZ first dose programme is halted though, especially since that has still got a fair bit of time before it started getting to over a million per week administered.

    When it comes to stuff like this, ensuring that second doses are given to groups 1-4 is a much bigger gain for us than first jabs for 40-49 year olds in terms of hospitalisation and death. Even though I'm under 50 and this potentially effects me I have to support the decision. In any case, I'm not sure it will be as big of a deal as is currently being predicted.
    Oh I do suspect it's an over reaction but it's being announced on the day that the EU is being arsey and a lot of people are going to see the 2 and say 2+2 = 5 (or WAR depending on whether you are Leon / SeanT or not).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    Floater said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
    Why should young people have to sit inside whilst older people can leave the country? How is that fair?

    We've put our entire lives on hold for you lot.
    You'll be able to leave. There just might be some quarantine requirements on the other side without a vaccine.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437

    Floater said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
    Why should young people have to sit inside whilst older people can leave the country? How is that fair?

    We've put our entire lives on hold for you lot.
    It isn't fair, but what's the point of banning it for no other reason other than 'fairness'? Loads of things are not fair.
  • Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    Nope, I'm returning to the office on the 5th of July, nothing today will see that slip.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Sandpit said:

    That sounds like a batch failed QA, or a fridge got switched off.

    It’s a contrast to previous optimism on supply, that was based on already-manufactured doses being in the UK.
    Or they’re just responding to the EU with their constant accusations that AZ are prioritising the U.K. and we have no shortages. It’s also a good way of getting the EU tanks off the AZ lawn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    I think that this means that the last breath of hope that the timetable could be accelerated has died but hopefully it is no worse than that in that the timetable had some flexibility within it to deal with "lumpy" supply issues.

    The thing that must have had them thinking pretty hard is that the first dose of most of the vaccines has been so effective is giving second doses really the priority? I think that must have been a tough call.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    What is the reason for the shortfall in AZ vaccines? It seems to me that this is the key unanswered question. No answers from the BBC so far, usual poor show.
  • andypetukandypetuk Posts: 69
    alex_ said:

    Charles said:
    It's not like it is an important letter or anything..... No reason to check it for typos or anything.

    *thud*
    No it obviously means 4 weeks. Otherwise it would say 52/4 given it said 29/3! And presumably the recipients of the letter understood it! Or anyway this was a shorthand by the guy on Twitter.
    Yes. 4/52 is doctor speak for 4 weeks.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Leon said:



    I really really wonder. It is quite a hefty coincidence - they very same day? Perhaps the EU really have leaned on AZ and Pfizer and they have quietly agreed to redirect supplies.

    Incendiary, if so. Also enraging, because the UK populace is eager for the vax and we have brilliant distribution, meanwhile the fucking EU sits on millions of unused jabs because they have successfully and stupidly trashed the vaccine in front of their own people

    I would happily go to war with the EU, right now. Yeah, they'd win conventionally, but we could nuke them. First Strike on France, take them out, then move on

    It's customary to inflict the first strike on Belgium.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    DavidL said:

    I think that this means that the last breath of hope that the timetable could be accelerated has died but hopefully it is no worse than that in that the timetable had some flexibility within it to deal with "lumpy" supply issues.

    The thing that must have had them thinking pretty hard is that the first dose of most of the vaccines has been so effective is giving second doses really the priority? I think that must have been a tough call.

    Well it obviously is (a priority) if the effects of the first doses start to wear off!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
    Why should young people have to sit inside whilst older people can leave the country? How is that fair?

    We've put our entire lives on hold for you lot.
    You lot eh .......

    Older people have less of their lives to live

    Its a stupid idea

    Next up - if not everyone can afford 2 weeks in the sun no one can go?

    AS I say Labour love to go to the lowest common level
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Van-Tam, entreating us to keep sitting at home: "We are only talking a few more months."

    Some of us can't cope with an ill-defined 'few more months'. A few more months could mean September or October. We've had enough of 'jam tomorrow.'

    Enough.

    It's always a few more months.

    These government fuckwits don't seem to realise that, even though they went into the whole thing thinking they could probably only make it stick for a few weeks.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Vaccine passports will be an absolute disgrace if allowed. Young people locked indoors whilst 50+ can leave the country

    They've protected the core vote. The rest of us can get fucked.
    I'm critical of Boris Johnson but this is just one of those genuine happenstances that the medical needy happen to be a considerable part of the core vote.

    This is where they are genuinely following the science and medical professional.
    I know. I was responding to the specific point CHB was making about the vaccine passports.

    As I said earlier in the thread, they'll probably introduce them domestically so the rest of us have to rot at home for months whilst the crusties can go out and party as well. Well fuck 'em. If I can't go down the pub til God knows when I'll have friends round to visit or go and meet them in the park. Screw the damned rules. Had enough of em.
    You should try doing it already. Improved my mental health no end. Everyone I live with is vaccinated, the 3-4 people I see only live with people that are already vaccinated or health under 30.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Someone needs to get in front of this drop in supply NOW.

    Explain why there is a drop.

    Explain what they are going to do remedy the situation.

    Reassure younger people that they aren't going to be waiting until July for their first jab.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Are those hoping to be free by 21 June feeling less optimistic today?

    The timetable has gone in the dustbin.

    I'm still processing the latest setback. Thinking calmly for a moment I wasn't contemplating doing parental visits until they'd had their seconds anyway so I suppose that's not really an immediate issue. The main problem there is if there are stupid stay home or stay local orders still in place by the time that I want to travel, and I risk being nabbed on the train journey (I don't drive) by a jobsworth copper.

    As far as stuff like bars and restaurants are concerned, it'll be a kick in the teeth if they're either kept shut til God knows when or you're barred by not having a vaccine passport, but that one can't do anything about.

    Friends are in a similar age bracket to me, save one who's a bit older but has already had his first jab, so I'm just going to see if they want to hop in the car and come visit regardless of the damned rules.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried about the predicted slowdown. To me it seems as though the NHS is (rightly) preparing for an EU embargo of Pfizer vaccines and is telling vaccine centres to ensure that second doses aren't missed and to ensure that enough doses are available for the second dose programme. Temporarily halting first dose bookings for group 10 makes sense to me because if it transpires that it's not an issue 40-49 year olds can be booked in very quickly and are all very mobile so don't need to home visits and don't need to be given a centre in walking distance, they can be asked to go a bit further by car or public transport.

    I also think that the current stated supply doesn't include any Novavax doses as it hasn't been approved yet, only Moderna, Pfizer and AZ are in the planned supply.

    All in all, we just need to keep on keeping on and there's no need to panic.

    Somewhat reassuring, but - if you're right - that does suggest HMG believes the EU will ban exports, even if contracted. Which is explosive
    I think it's worst case scenario planning, which again makes a lot of sense from a medical point of view. Halting the first dose programme for Pfizer makes sense until we can be sure that there is enough supply to do all of the necessary second doses of Pfizer over the next few weeks. I'd be shocked if the AZ first dose programme is halted though, especially since that has still got a fair bit of time before it started getting to over a million per week administered.

    When it comes to stuff like this, ensuring that second doses are given to groups 1-4 is a much bigger gain for us than first jabs for 40-49 year olds in terms of hospitalisation and death. Even though I'm under 50 and this potentially effects me I have to support the decision. In any case, I'm not sure it will be as big of a deal as is currently being predicted.
    When is Novovax approval expected?
    Within a couple of weeks at the earliest timetable, mid-April on the latest because there's a bunch of variant data that wasn't present with Pfizer who had a quick rolling review.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,622
    Has there been some data re: Pfizer's effectiveness decreasing sooner than 12 weeks? There was a hint of that in the graphs (not for AZ though). Maybe there is a reason to get them done a bit quicker.

    Missing AZ does sound like a bad batch (unless they were expecting a delivery from a site in the EU).

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    edited March 2021
    But that doesn't add up. That makes it sound like they always planned this

    The letter which is, apparently, non-standard, clearly says an issue with "inbound supplies" will lead to "significant contraction" in jabs. This is not an expected shortfall


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372240340707639297?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    Leon said:

    But that doesn't add up. That makes it sound like they always planned this

    The letter which is, apparently, non-standard, clearly says an issue with "inbound supplies" will lead to "significant contraction" in jabs. This is not an expected shortfall


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372240340707639297?s=20
    Wasn't there was a similar letter a couple months ago explaining a similar reduction in supply?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Bollocks excuse, you just ban people from leaving the UK, problem solved. But they won't.

    Typical Labour - make everyone equally unhappy.
    Why should young people have to sit inside whilst older people can leave the country? How is that fair?

    We've put our entire lives on hold for you lot.
    You lot eh .......

    Older people have less of their lives to live

    Its a stupid idea

    Next up - if not everyone can afford 2 weeks in the sun no one can go?

    AS I say Labour love to go to the lowest common level
    In all fairness the young have sacrificed a year of their lives over something that holds *no* risk to them, and the entire future bill will be paid by them.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried about the predicted slowdown. To me it seems as though the NHS is (rightly) preparing for an EU embargo of Pfizer vaccines and is telling vaccine centres to ensure that second doses aren't missed and to ensure that enough doses are available for the second dose programme. Temporarily halting first dose bookings for group 10 makes sense to me because if it transpires that it's not an issue 40-49 year olds can be booked in very quickly and are all very mobile so don't need to home visits and don't need to be given a centre in walking distance, they can be asked to go a bit further by car or public transport.

    I also think that the current stated supply doesn't include any Novavax doses as it hasn't been approved yet, only Moderna, Pfizer and AZ are in the planned supply.

    All in all, we just need to keep on keeping on and there's no need to panic.

    Somewhat reassuring, but - if you're right - that does suggest HMG believes the EU will ban exports, even if contracted. Which is explosive
    I think it's worst case scenario planning, which again makes a lot of sense from a medical point of view. Halting the first dose programme for Pfizer makes sense until we can be sure that there is enough supply to do all of the necessary second doses of Pfizer over the next few weeks. I'd be shocked if the AZ first dose programme is halted though, especially since that has still got a fair bit of time before it started getting to over a million per week administered.

    When it comes to stuff like this, ensuring that second doses are given to groups 1-4 is a much bigger gain for us than first jabs for 40-49 year olds in terms of hospitalisation and death. Even though I'm under 50 and this potentially effects me I have to support the decision. In any case, I'm not sure it will be as big of a deal as is currently being predicted.
    When is Novovax approval expected?
    Within a couple of weeks at the earliest timetable, mid-April on the latest because there's a bunch of variant data that wasn't present with Pfizer who had a quick rolling review.
    Of course, approval doesn't make supply available. That could take until Autumn for all we know.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    edited March 2021

    Leon said:



    I really really wonder. It is quite a hefty coincidence - they very same day? Perhaps the EU really have leaned on AZ and Pfizer and they have quietly agreed to redirect supplies.

    Incendiary, if so. Also enraging, because the UK populace is eager for the vax and we have brilliant distribution, meanwhile the fucking EU sits on millions of unused jabs because they have successfully and stupidly trashed the vaccine in front of their own people

    I would happily go to war with the EU, right now. Yeah, they'd win conventionally, but we could nuke them. First Strike on France, take them out, then move on

    It's customary to inflict the first strike on Belgium.
    We need a FUSAG.
This discussion has been closed.