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You might need a brave heart for this Scottish bet – politicalbetting.com
You might need a brave heart for this Scottish bet – politicalbetting.com
Betting on Scottish matters has been an enjoyable and very profitable area for myself and many other PBers, from seeing Iain Gray’s collapsing ratings in 2011 indicating the SNP was going to achieve what the voting system was designed to stop, to 2014 referendum, to the SNP tsunami in 2015, the SNP losing their majority which was tipped at 10/1 and 8/1 on the day of the 2016 election, and the 2017 Scottish Tory surge, perhaps it is distance and the lack of a vote that helps lend perspective and wisdom?
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He said the recruitment of customs agents needed to rise by around 30,000 to nearer 50,000 to cope with the extra regulations. “Judging by our own experience of customs agents, they are swamped with calls and turning away business, which is ridiculous when we have had four years to sort this out.”
He added that delays and loss of exports would continue until more customs agents were trained, leading to delays until at least the summer.
Small and medium businesses are likely to be hardest hit by the dearth of agents that play a crucial role in handling the mountain of new paperwork being imposed on firms that wish to continue trading in Europe.
Surely the punt for heroes is against the SNP being the largest party, as advised by someone or other on here?
It’s now 1.02 to back, and 1.03 to lay.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/30298288/multi-market?marketIds=1.179554856
https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1370862273544224770
I expect, of course, that neither will happen, and there’s a good chance of him being challenged from the left by a Reform the Met candidate.
heart of this Government.
Like the Lib Dems.
That news detracted from a very pleasant looking morning!
Thanks for the header.
Ratters said:"Proportionality doesn't just apply to policing, but to legislating.
Transmission of Covid outside with masks on is practically non-existant, even more so with social distancing.
Was banning peaceful protest in a democracy ever really justified given that? And if so, should it still be when the most vunerable people have been vaccinated? My feeling is we've too easily sacrificed our rights for too long.
As for the police, their heavy handed response to a relatively small, mostly female protest about a woman kidnapped and killed off the streets, allegedly by one of their own, is something that would have been laughed out of a Line of Duty scriptwriting session. Utterly moronic."
Good? morning. Very good post from @Ratters
Only thing I'd add, picking up on the final paragraph, is that there has been at least one report of extreme provocation including absurd accusations of murderers and rapists - and verbal abuse towards female police officers. The Met shouldn't have been there at all in my opinion, but this is disgusting if true.
I’ve had one pamphlet pushed through my door...for Brian Rose.
...one of the reasons this started blowing up (while PBers were making nob jokes) was testimony on Twitter from very normal non-radical women who were at the vigil and shocked by how the police behaved.
...one of the reasons this started blowing up (while PBers were making nob jokes) was testimony on Twitter from very normal non-radical women who were at the vigil and shocked by how the police behaved.
It should have been policed by female police officers, with no men visible.
These officers should have said that those on the vigil should be at least 2m apart from anyone else on the vigil. They would be allowed one hour, in quiet respect, then would be required to disperse.
If they had done the above, no-one would have heard anything much about it.
The protestors really should have stayed at home in the current situation, and well done to the original organisers for trying to do that.
Re: London Mayor - Porritt did some leafleting over Xmas, and I suspected that there might be a big push from the LDs - I even tipped her at 800 or so - sorry! It does seem odd that they're not trying a lot harder.
https://www.luisa4london.co.uk/
The same applies here. The responsibility rests with the politicians. You cannot leave the police to “use their judgment”. Either civil liberties are on hold or they are not. The police don’t get to pick and choose when they intervene.
These can include Police, NHS, Unions, Political Parties, Councils, Private Companies, Celebrities, Utilities and obviously Radiohead
Where the power exceeds the accountability and the consequences are taken by weak third parties or low levels in the organisation.
Is TSE saying these markets are a fake that only fools take seriously?
On topic, I agree 40-45 looks value, but I’m not sure I’d take it. My instinct is the SNP will probably hold their position despite their rampaging criminality and incompetence, because Sindy (like Johnson in 2019).
If they do collapse, I think they will collapse suddenly and dramatically, as Scottish Labour did in 2011 during the campaign.
So therefore I expect them to be either near 50% or under 40%.
I do not expect them to drop to under 40% this time unless Salmond founds a new party. Given how unpopular he is, that wouldn’t win power but it might siphon off 10-15%. But again, it ain’t gonna happen.
Given another five years - who knows? Five years ago Cameron was master of all he surveyed and we seemed near certain to stay in the EU.
What we are talking about the severe curtailment of civil liberties. Now, I’ve never been on a demonstration. Perhaps most on PB are the same and we don’t really care about it because it’s what other people do.
The Met has taken zero tolerance policy for policing this sort of thing. You cannot criticise them for being consistent. It’s a fundamental part of who they are and what they do.
There’s a global pandemic, don’t ya know.
The actions of the police came across as "Yeah, he was one of ours. Fuck you."
Mr. 86, they got to pick and choose when they knelt before or ran away from BLM mobs.
Ironic, given the vigil sounds altogether pacific.
My dad has made the point that the women at that event are white. If the police don’t do they’re job, they would be criticised for going soft on middle class white women.
FWIW I was fine with the BLM marches because I hoped that our law makers would see that being outside isn’t a big risk to spreading COVID.
Alas, the COVID zealots won the day and we’ve had a zero tolerance approach to policing demonstrations.
If we had an intruder I think I'd just do the Full Tony Martin and take my chances in court. As I'm white and well off I'd almost certainly be just fine.
Defund now.
The police aren’t a political party trying to win an election.
They have a duty to police without any discrimination.
Which means they risk becoming ever more insular and unresponsive to that required consent.
It was a very poor night for policing the capital, pandemic or not.
We have seen the met Police taking similar approaches with anti lockdown protests and harassing people in parks.
Hopefully now the policing of people in public and demonstrations where the risk is negligible will return to some sort of sanity.
The politicians own this as much as the Police.
Now it is affecting the mainstream middle,classes and their friends something will be done about it. When it was old Piers Corbyn the same people thought it comical.
I won't say I support them particularly, but political extremists these are not. If you want to judge the temper the identity of those arrested may be more interesting.
Though it is quite possible some people looking for trouble turned up to this particular demo.
I haven't been listening to the radio for a couple of days, as I detest the sectarian Women ! Women ! Women ! Men ! Men ! Men ! narratives, and journos not asking any touch questions at all gives me high blood pressure.
This article on day 2 has some pace suggestions but I'm not sure how much I buy into it. The F1 website, which I don't always check for stuff like this, regularly puts up similar from practice for qualifying/race day and I think such conclusions are tentative at best.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.5-things-we-learned-on-day-2-of-pre-season-testing-in-bahrain.2ecwPj6SvKB3NMBYhuEUpR.html
For those who dislike clicking links, the key note is that Red Bull are apparently fastest, ahead of Mercedes. Alpine also looking good. I think it's way too early to say.
It'll be interesting to see who her replacement is.
Someone harder line I expect
Mine was in Kings Cross station in about 2008 under I think Section 44 of the Terrorism Act 2000. It was entirely random, as me + gf were standing looking at the local map in Kings Cross station on a day out in London.
It was at the time Nulab were doing half a million S&S in London per year. That year they did not find any terrorists iirc. My suspicion about the motivation is that they were under the political cosh for too many S&S of ethnic minorities so were trying to balance up the numbers.
Looked the WPC in the eye and asked "do you really suspect we are Terrorists?". "Yes". Refused to give names, but the S&S was over in a couple of minutes.
Wrote a blog post about it which landed at no 1 on Google, and the Beeb found it and did a News 24 interview.
All to reminiscent of the harrassment of photographers by police going on around that time. Always treat them with suspicion now.
I think the only UK police force doing this loopy kind of thing is Scotland, unless they have stopped too.
The story about how the police effectively intimidated my mum into stopping driving is more concerning, but that's for another time.
She now has even less trust in the police to do right be women than she did before last night. The use of the kettle is going to be put under severe scrutiny, it's those tactics that created an unsafe environment.
I've been locked up three times. UK, Bangkok and Bahrain. UK was easily the worst and Bahrain was the best. I drank coffee with head Bahraini cop and played Burma Road with him on the dartboard in his office while we waited for the British military attache to grease the wheels to get me out.
Wasn't the smartest rules of engagement was it?
I suspect there will,be quite a few claims going in over this,
Its a one horse race in London. Had the Tories put up a candidate with a brain they might have been able to challenge Khan. Sadly they picked Shaun Bailey and seemingly have given him an open remit to say the most stupid and offensive things possible on a regular basis.
Dick has to resign
Only to get the message, 'sorry, this content is only available to paying customers.'
Unless you’re very close to others outdoors, it’s pretty safe (I still wear a mask in town centres when there are a lot of people about).
Kurz’s and his counterparts from Latvia, Bulgaria, Slovenia and the Czech Republic called for vaccine distribution to be discussed at an EU summit. In a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel, they noted that jointly purchased vaccines aren’t being delivered to EU member countries equally, based in proportion to their population.
The Commission’s response: Don't blame us. It restated what has been well known for months — that some countries didn’t sign up for all the vaccines they were entitled to, and others bought up the extra doses.
https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-eu-coronavirus-vaccines-distribution-european-commission-sebastian-kurz-summit/
Which would bring about an NFA (no further action).
Anyway my laundry always went in with my fiancée's family wash, and I was taking the current load 'home' late one evening when a policeman, who clearly had nothing better to do, stopped me, chatted for a bit about what I was doing, then made me unpack the whole bagful of lovingly ironed clean clothes,
Then a police whistle sounded in the distance and he ran off towards it.
https://twitter.com/mrdanwalker/status/1371002628583387139?s=20
https://youtube.com/watch?v=DrZwb-0-h9s
If I were in London I'd be strongly tempted to give them my vote.