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The Boris numbers in these comparisons with Rishi and Keir should be worrying for the Tories – polit

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870

    Gavin "ooh Betty" Williamson.

    Frank Spencer didn't have a Northern accent, FFS!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822
    kle4 said:

    Citing popularity does not mean people misunderstand royalty, I always find that a very strange attempt to 'correct' people in a smug way.

    If the monarch or heirs become really unpopular it could be a sign the institution is in trouble. If Charles were on -20 no it wouldn't prevent him becoming king but it could be a sign he might not be one for long.

    People act like individual or institutional popularity is irrelevant but it isn't. The more minor ones are more so, but may add to the collective institutional position if there are a dozen drags on the popularity.

    And the system needs to be popular, or at least not unpopular, to survive.
    Also, these stats are very suspect.
    8% of people's favourite royal is Princess Eugenie? 5% for Princess Beatrice? That must be approaching everyone who could pick them out of a line-up; even if that line-up consisted only of the two of them. I have nothing against either of them, inasmuch as I know anything about them, but are there really in excess of 10% of the population who, when asked to name their favourite member of the royal family, settle on these two? And who are the 2% who are saying Prince Andrew - trolls, surely? And over one third of respondents has picked one of the royal toddlers. That can't e right, surely? Again, splendid children all of them, I'm sure, but really, over a third of people polled genuinely choosing a specific royal toddler as their favourite royal? The previous point about picking them out from a line-up applies (except I would be rather more confident in telling them apart, for reasons of size if nothing else). And Prince Edward? What sort of person chooses Prince Edward as their favourite royal, apart from Mrs. Prince Edward? I would struggle to identify Prince Edward if he came canvassing for my vote wearing an 'I'm Prince Edward' t-shirt.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Why not just give the (frontline) NHS workers exposed to risk a one-off tax-free bonus of £2,000 each - put it in the Covid slush pot for FY20/21; may as well given the £400bn spaffed up the wall - and up their pay by 2.1%, at a cost of the extra £1.2bn per year or whatever?

    These will be rounding errors over 5 years anyway.

    Spectacular media management failure to have a debate over 1% when most people in the NHS will get well above that through natural progression and the various other bonus schemes in place to award people more than the base level of inflation in the grade bands.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Why not just give the (frontline) NHS workers exposed to risk a one-off tax-free bonus of £2,000 each - put it in the Covid slush pot for FY20/21; may as well given the £400bn spaffed up the wall - and up their pay by 2.1%, at a cost of the extra £1.2bn per year or whatever?

    These will be rounding errors over 5 years anyway.

    This has been poorly spun. The 1% is a recommendation. Almost nobody knows this.
    The end award will be higher, almosr certainly, and the government will accept it.
    They've already allowed that to be painted as a U-turn.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,207
    HYUFD said:
    On the Democrat side, that number for Newsom looks far too high.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870
    "We send £350 million a week to the EU. Let's fund our NHS instead." :lol:
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052

    I don't think we should be passporting in this way. For most people, we won't have to - the vaccine will come quick enough.
    ... and many of the vaccinated are already ignoring the restrictions anyway.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Could someone on the Feminist Left explain to me who is beating who here, and why?

    The internecine Woke Wars are now literally incomprehensible. What are "queer activists" and why do they hate normal feminists this much?



    https://twitter.com/Margueritestern/status/1368624306117283844?s=20
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.

    Cases down 13% regardless, but clearly would have been a much bigger fall without the extra load of false positives
    You have no evidence for such an assertion. False positives was a bullshit hypothesis when it was advanced last autumn, and it's bullshit now unless you can come up with actual evidence.

    Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.

    --AS
    What a weird aggressive post.

    I am quoting the government's own estimate of false positives for lateral flow tests, which is 0.31%, so an extra 300,000 tests conducted compared to the same day last week would generate another 900 false positives, and so the case fall looks like 13% rather than the reality of more like 30%.

    False positives are a fact of life for any test no matter how many childish swear words you want to bring out.
    The stats for lateral flow tests for school kids should be shown in stats as a separate column. Millions of tests. Done by amateurs. Some are going to be false +.
    False negatives are way more likely than false positives, and way more problematic in terms of controlling the spread of infection, and yet oddly false positives receive disproportionately greater attention.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    PM ends with
    "I think you'll be pleasantly surprised when common sense begins to prevail."
    Well, yes, I will.
  • This is very troubling.

    Labour has been found guilty of being a racist party, now Keir Starmer wants to investigate possible racism and that is the wrong thing to do? He didn't say anyone was racist, he just called for an objective investigation.

    Surely this is exactly the right lesson to have learned from the Corbyn era, he can't win
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Why not just give the (frontline) NHS workers exposed to risk a one-off tax-free bonus of £2,000 each - put it in the Covid slush pot for FY20/21; may as well given the £400bn spaffed up the wall - and up their pay by 2.1%, at a cost of the extra £1.2bn per year or whatever?

    These will be rounding errors over 5 years anyway.

    The problem with pay rises is its permanent, exponential and there's no gratitude for it. It could be 2.1% this year and then that increases expenditure by close to a billion pounds per annum in perpetuity. Then this time next year there'll again be a clammer for pay rises with the old pay rise 'banked'.

    I thought it was an interesting point by Boris that what nurses have said to him (and it is what campaigners have been saying) is that the nurses need more colleagues, more nurses and there's 10,000 extra nurses over the last year and more being recruited still. So a pay rise becomes even more expensive as numbers rise further - or you have the same budget, give a pay rise but lose the extra colleagues to come.

    Do nurses want to lose the extra colleagues to come who are being hired to reduce their workload? I doubt it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,456
    edited March 2021
    I'm not sure it's sensible to celebrate the current Covid figures too much yet; wait until the schools have been back for 7-10 days.
  • This is very troubling.

    Labour has been found guilty of being a racist party, now Keir Starmer wants to investigate possible racism and that is the wrong thing to do? He didn't say anyone was racist, he just called for an objective investigation.

    Surely this is exactly the right lesson to have learned from the Corbyn era, he can't win
    The sensible thing would be to remain neutral as indeed has Boris
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Cookie said:

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
    I have maintained for many months.
    It is the cultural habit of popping into the neighbours' houses at the drop of a hat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    This is very troubling.

    Labour has been found guilty of being a racist party, now Keir Starmer wants to investigate possible racism and that is the wrong thing to do? He didn't say anyone was racist, he just called for an objective investigation.

    Surely this is exactly the right lesson to have learned from the Corbyn era, he can't win
    How do you "investigate possible racism" when the allegations are so vague and nebulous they consist of "somebody said something quite possibly racist but I won't tell you who it is"?

    What do you, connect the Queen to a Lie Detector?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,548
    I would take issue with one part of the header - or at least with its title.

    I fully agree that these figures should be worrying for Johnson, particularly given how easily the Tory party seems to find it to dump leaders they consider to be liabilities.

    But I don't see how this is an issue that should worry the Tories. If it was just Johnson and Starmer and the LotO was walking all over the PM then I would agree. But it is their own Chancellor who has by far the best figures in this polling which means that, unlike the Opposition, they do at least have a ready made successor for if and when they do decide to dump Johnson.

    I would probably class this under the heading of 'nice problem to have'.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited March 2021

    This is very troubling.

    Labour has been found guilty of being a racist party, now Keir Starmer wants to investigate possible racism and that is the wrong thing to do? He didn't say anyone was racist, he just called for an objective investigation.

    Surely this is exactly the right lesson to have learned from the Corbyn era, he can't win
    If he supports 'investigating' the Queen for racism, he is indeed very unlikely to win a general election...

    Or to put it another way, Starmer took the side of the 29%, as opposed to the 56%...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Deaths well below 100:


    Cases below 5k.

    Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.

    No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
    Kudos. I remember these predictions which many said (and others felt – including me) were too bullish.

    Remarkably, it's possible we could see a single figure deaths day this month.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822
    Floater said:

    Re kids being back at school

    One of my team is a parent of primary school age children - this individual seemed pretty pleased they were back in school

    :smiley:

    I am a parent of primary school age children.
    I can't speak for absolutely everyone, but everyone I've spoken to is ABSOLUTELY FUCKING DELIGHTED the kids are back in school. Emotions are running pretty high; there are real, genuine tears of relief.
    Also worth noting that the one or two refuseniks who didn't send their kids back last September have sent them back today.
    For parents, this is a far, far bigger deal than any other aspect of lifting lockdown. Going to the pub is fairly small beer as we don't get out anyway. But our kids being educated properly again; our kids being able to interact with their friends again; and actually being able to get some work done again. Happy, happy day.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,431

    Deaths well below 100:


    Cases below 5k.

    Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.

    No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
    I suggested I couldn't see where the extra 30K deaths would come from, and others disagreed. I think I was right - I struggle to see where they will come from now, as more and more of those who could die from Covid get protected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Cookie said:

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
    Obesity
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    On the Democrat side, that number for Newsom looks far too high.
    Cuomo, at 1%, looks a tad optimistic too.

    Its almost as if lockdown were in headlong retreat right across America.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I'm not sure it's sensible to celebrate the current Covid figures too much yet; wait until the schools have been bak for 7-10 days.

    Why?

    Schools didn't increase transmission last June.

    Last September the return to school coincided with Fresher's Week and was just after foreign holidays in Spain etc - there won't be any Fresher's Week this week.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    edited March 2021
    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichomar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichomar`s daughter today.

    Nichomar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichomar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Cookie said:

    Floater said:

    Re kids being back at school

    One of my team is a parent of primary school age children - this individual seemed pretty pleased they were back in school

    :smiley:

    I am a parent of primary school age children.
    I can't speak for absolutely everyone, but everyone I've spoken to is ABSOLUTELY FUCKING DELIGHTED the kids are back in school. Emotions are running pretty high; there are real, genuine tears of relief.
    Also worth noting that the one or two refuseniks who didn't send their kids back last September have sent them back today.
    For parents, this is a far, far bigger deal than any other aspect of lifting lockdown. Going to the pub is fairly small beer as we don't get out anyway. But our kids being educated properly again; our kids being able to interact with their friends again; and actually being able to get some work done again. Happy, happy day.
    Tomorrow, for mine, but, otherwise: YES
  • So there we have it, racism is only useful to score political points. As clear as day, PB Tories will always revert to type when it is in their interest to do so.

    Pathetic, utterly pathetic.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Deaths well below 100:


    Cases below 5k.

    Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.

    No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
    I suggested I couldn't see where the extra 30K deaths would come from, and others disagreed. I think I was right - I struggle to see where they will come from now, as more and more of those who could die from Covid get protected.
    Absolutely you were right and I 'liked' that I think. I can't see it either.

    Quite simply: vaccines work.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Deaths well below 100:


    Cases below 5k.

    Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.

    No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
    I think the Government will resist pressure to unlock faster than the current timetable until we get to the other side of Easter; but by then the pressure to push for an end to lockdown end of May rather than mid June will be quite a clamour.

    Always assuming the schools opening doesn't see a major spike. Which I am not expecting.
    I think the schools will lead to a rise in cases but not in hosps/deaths – because of the sheer number of schoolchildren taking tests, which will be almost entirely asymptomatic.

    Important that the government gets ahead of that and predicts it now, and says that it's all fine before the lockdownistas use it as cause for delays.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    So there we have it, racism is only useful to score political points. As clear as day, PB Tories will always revert to type when it is in their interest to do so.

    Pathetic, utterly pathetic.

    What are you talking about?

    Is Dan Hodges a PB Tory?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    So there we have it, racism is only useful to score political points. As clear as day, PB Tories will always revert to type when it is in their interest to do so.

    Pathetic, utterly pathetic.

    Please tell us how you would *investigate* this alleged racism. Genuine question
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
    Obesity
    Fascinating - could be. Some analysis to be done. Although instinctively I would think obesity would not affect numbers of positive tests; rather, it would affect how seriously ill you get.
  • I wonder if I'd said the same about Luciana Berger, what the response would have been. I can guess PB Tories would be jumping up and down then - double standards and hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    And I don't give a toss about whether Meghan is or isn't racist, or whether the Royal Family is or isn't racist. I care so little about them in fact I've just finished writing an Adblock rule to block all mentions of them here. It's quite simple but seems to work so far
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichobar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichobar`s daughter today.

    Nichobar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichobar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    RIP Nichobar. Sad news.
  • So there we have it, racism is only useful to score political points. As clear as day, PB Tories will always revert to type when it is in their interest to do so.

    Pathetic, utterly pathetic.

    So how would you investigate a generalised accusation of racism in the Royal Family
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,431

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.

    Cases down 13% regardless, but clearly would have been a much bigger fall without the extra load of false positives
    You have no evidence for such an assertion. False positives was a bullshit hypothesis when it was advanced last autumn, and it's bullshit now unless you can come up with actual evidence.

    Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.

    --AS
    It would help if the government would explain the process for guarding against false positives. If every positive test by lateral flow must be confirmed by PCR then I would think the true false positive count would be miniscule. But if there are no safeguards then there will be some false positives; its simply a statistical fact.
    The farago back in september about this was instructive. Clearly the increase in cases was not due to false positives (to any realistic viewer). But with 900,000 tests a day, checks do need to be in place.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    This is very troubling.

    Labour has been found guilty of being a racist party, now Keir Starmer wants to investigate possible racism and that is the wrong thing to do? He didn't say anyone was racist, he just called for an objective investigation.

    Surely this is exactly the right lesson to have learned from the Corbyn era, he can't win
    If he supports 'investigating' the Queen for racism, he is indeed very unlikely to win a general election...

    Or to put it another way, Starmer took the side of the 29%, as opposed to the 56%...
    THis isn't about racism its about due process.

    its about the assumption that every allegation of racism must be true.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited March 2021
    I implore the government to decree that all pubs in southern England open over the Easter weekend as a large-scale 'test event'.

    We are good civic-minded folk down here, and very willing to take one for the team.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichobar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichobar`s daughter today.

    Nichobar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichobar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    Please pass on our sympathies
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichobar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichobar`s daughter today.

    Nichobar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichobar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    Stocky - thanks for letting us know - indeed very sad news.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichobar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichobar`s daughter today.

    Nichobar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichobar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    RIP Nichobar. Sad news.
    Seconded
  • Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichobar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichobar`s daughter today.

    Nichobar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichobar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    RIP Nichobar. Sad news.
    That is very sad news and sympathy to all his family on their loss
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    dixiedean said:

    Not sure why Boris is holding this press conference other than to take on the Royals issues

    And noticed Sturgeon did not attend today's Scots press conference

    Schools have gone back today.

    Its the first key date achieved on the unlocking plan and kids being back at school is great news.
    I have no problem with that but he really had little to say

    However, he has just said he has a policy of not talking about Royal Family matters and he is not going to do that today

    To be fair sensible response
    He said that it was great to see kids back in school and thank you to teachers and to parents.

    What more was there to say? Short and to the point.
    Do we actually know how many are back today?
    Not many round here.
    All schools back open here. My son was very happy to be back!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
    I have maintained for many months.
    It is the cultural habit of popping into the neighbours' houses at the drop of a hat.
    So we can geographise sociability?
    That sounds plausible to me, actually.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,431
    Would like this here to be honest (with caveats). I broke the law at the weekend to meet with my parents (both vaccinated more than 4 weeks ago, me 3.5 weeks ago). Not zero risk, but with current prevalance and the levels of care we have taken, pretty close to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,104
    Only age group which thinks Harry and Meghan's Oprah interview was appropriate was 18 to 24s.

    65% of 50 to 65s and 68% of over 65s think it was inappropriate
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1368959692475613186?s=20

    57% of Tory voters and 57% of Leave voters have no sympathy at all with Harry and Meghan, 27% of Tory voters and 23% of Leave voters have not very much sympathy

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/03/08/49294/2?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=daily_questions&utm_campaign=question_2
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    I implore the government to decree that all pubs in southern England open over the Easter weekend as a large-scale 'test event'.

    We are good civic-minded folk down here, and very willing to take one for the team.

    Look I know you won our bet but now you're just rubbing it in.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichobar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichobar`s daughter today.

    Nichobar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichobar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    Oh no. I really enjoyed his waspish humour and observations. RIP
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083

    Would like this here to be honest (with caveats). I broke the law at the weekend to meet with my parents (both vaccinated more than 4 weeks ago, me 3.5 weeks ago). Not zero risk, but with current prevalance and the levels of care we have taken, pretty close to.
    You should be sent for 2 weeks in a Travelodge as punishment ;-)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
    Obesity
    Fascinating - could be. Some analysis to be done. Although instinctively I would think obesity would not affect numbers of positive tests; rather, it would affect how seriously ill you get.
    Or both? If you are obese you are more likely to get symptoms bad enough that you will get tested, perhaps. And in a community prone to obesity pools of infection will linger, like sinters in the spring - in hospitals, in people with Long Covid, and so on.

    It is obvious that morbid overweightness is a major determinant in how an individual or a nation suffers from this horrible bug
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I wonder if I'd said the same about Luciana Berger, what the response would have been. I can guess PB Tories would be jumping up and down then - double standards and hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    And I don't give a toss about whether Meghan is or isn't racist, or whether the Royal Family is or isn't racist. I care so little about them in fact I've just finished writing an Adblock rule to block all mentions of them here. It's quite simple but seems to work so far

    Speaking as a PB Tory I don't think I'm guilty of any double-standards at all considering I have been saying the concerns were serious and the way Meghan has been treated was appalling.

    Do you consider that a double-standard? Or were you counting people like Dan Hodges as a PB Tory instead?

    Or do you believe HYUFD them I'm not a Tory?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichomar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichomar`s daughter today.

    Nichomar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichomar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    Thank you very much for doing so.

    Posting til the end!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,431

    Would like this here to be honest (with caveats). I broke the law at the weekend to meet with my parents (both vaccinated more than 4 weeks ago, me 3.5 weeks ago). Not zero risk, but with current prevalance and the levels of care we have taken, pretty close to.
    You should be sent for 2 weeks in a Travelodge as punishment ;-)
    Can I choose where? And do I have to pay? It'll get me out of lab classes for the week, so maybe I'll take the hit...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,001
    Cookie said:

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
    One of my colleagues did her geography dissertation on the spatial spread of viral epidemics, but that was back in the 1990s before Covid was a twinkle the pangolin's eye. Mine was on tropical rainfall prediction so rather less relevant.

    I am not sure this pattern of early peak in London and later peaks in the North and elsewhere is about socio-economic factors, or climate / sunshine for that matter. It looks to me very like how wildfires burn across scrubland. The pattern tends to be the same: initial flare-up in one spot which then spreads outwards in bursts while dying down in the original locations. These Covid waves feel similar. Obviously the fire is bigger and spreads most rapidly where the amount of dry tinder is greatest or the weather is most conducive, but the way is spreads just looks similar each time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    HYUFD said:
    Or is it just an proxy for age? Oldies thinks the Queen is the biz, youngsters think Meghan is much more like them?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    I wonder if I'd said the same about Luciana Berger, what the response would have been. I can guess PB Tories would be jumping up and down then - double standards and hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    And I don't give a toss about whether Meghan is or isn't racist, or whether the Royal Family is or isn't racist. I care so little about them in fact I've just finished writing an Adblock rule to block all mentions of them here. It's quite simple but seems to work so far

    Sorry, but no. You don't get to climb on your high horse until you tell us HOW you would investigate such vague allegations.

    Racism is serious, so you need to treat it seriously. Not just rant about it on PB.

    I see no serious method of "investigating" this. But you may have ideas?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:
    That's not true. 11% of Leavers have sympathy for for H&M that's not none, that's 1 in 9 Leavers. 1 in 5 fall between having sympathy or don't know.

    I fall in the 1 in 9 Leavers. You of course are a Remainer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021

    Would like this here to be honest (with caveats). I broke the law at the weekend to meet with my parents (both vaccinated more than 4 weeks ago, me 3.5 weeks ago). Not zero risk, but with current prevalance and the levels of care we have taken, pretty close to.
    You should be sent for 2 weeks in a Travelodge as punishment ;-)
    Can I choose where? And do I have to pay? It'll get me out of lab classes for the week, so maybe I'll take the hit...
    It has to be one of those really old style shit ones at some crap service station, where you get kept awake all night by the sound of the lorries....where as a poor kid from Stoke, my parents would take us to stay as a "treat".
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
    I have maintained for many months.
    It is the cultural habit of popping into the neighbours' houses at the drop of a hat.
    Isn't that a bit of a hackneyed stereotype though? Is it really the case that northerners announce themselves on your doorstep daily and enter for tea/wine/a bit of the other uninvited?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichobar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichobar`s daughter today.

    Nichobar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichobar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    RIP Nichobar. Sad news.
    Funny how one can be so sad about a random bloke off the internet. But I used to look out for Nichomar`s posts. Though we disagreed from time to time!
    Random blokes, and blokettes, are the best.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
    Obesity
    Fascinating - could be. Some analysis to be done. Although instinctively I would think obesity would not affect numbers of positive tests; rather, it would affect how seriously ill you get.
    Or both? If you are obese you are more likely to get symptoms bad enough that you will get tested, perhaps. And in a community prone to obesity pools of infection will linger, like sinters in the spring - in hospitals, in people with Long Covid, and so on.

    It is obvious that morbid overweightness is a major determinant in how an individual or a nation suffers from this horrible bug
    One of my long covid (And very much not obese) friends who got the bug has a very obese wife who he mentioned got away with only slight breathlessness whilst he went through the ringer !
    Being male and over 50 is a massive detriment no matter how fit you are in terms of virus outcome.
    One thing about the vaccine, it'll work best if you're not obese mind.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    HYUFD said:
    Not really. Only Labour voters are net positive (+9) even Lib Dems (-7) and Remain voters (-7) are net negative.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Leon said:

    I wonder if I'd said the same about Luciana Berger, what the response would have been. I can guess PB Tories would be jumping up and down then - double standards and hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    And I don't give a toss about whether Meghan is or isn't racist, or whether the Royal Family is or isn't racist. I care so little about them in fact I've just finished writing an Adblock rule to block all mentions of them here. It's quite simple but seems to work so far

    Sorry, but no. You don't get to climb on your high horse until you tell us HOW you would investigate such vague allegations.

    Racism is serious, so you need to treat it seriously. Not just rant about it on PB.

    I see no serious method of "investigating" this. But you may have ideas?
    Isn't the usual go-to for Labour investigations a "judge-led inquiry".

    Unless of course you want to fix the answer in which case you go for an ermine-led inquiry. *cough Chakrabati*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,104

    HYUFD said:
    That's not true. 11% of Leavers have sympathy for for H&M that's not none, that's 1 in 9 Leavers. 1 in 5 fall between having sympathy or don't know.

    I fall in the 1 in 9 Leavers. You of course are a Remainer.
    It is true a plurality of Remainers also have little or no time for them (just not a majority who have no time for them like Leave voters), only Labour voters have a plurality who have time for them.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichobar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichobar`s daughter today.

    Nichobar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichobar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    Oh no. I really enjoyed his waspish humour and observations. RIP

    Very saddened and sorry to hear. RIP Nichobar. A first-class poster.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    I implore the government to decree that all pubs in southern England open over the Easter weekend as a large-scale 'test event'.

    We are good civic-minded folk down here, and very willing to take one for the team.

    Look I know you won our bet but now you're just rubbing it in.
    :D Bravo, sir.

    Not intended!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,104
    edited March 2021
    17 million viewers only? The Sussex camp and TV anchors were talking 100 million this morning!

    The Superbowl got 96 million viewers in February
    https://www.nfl.com/news/super-bowl-lv-draws-audience-of-96-4-million-viewers
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,376
    Leon said:

    I wonder if I'd said the same about Luciana Berger, what the response would have been. I can guess PB Tories would be jumping up and down then - double standards and hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    And I don't give a toss about whether Meghan is or isn't racist, or whether the Royal Family is or isn't racist. I care so little about them in fact I've just finished writing an Adblock rule to block all mentions of them here. It's quite simple but seems to work so far

    Sorry, but no. You don't get to climb on your high horse until you tell us HOW you would investigate such vague allegations.

    Racism is serious, so you need to treat it seriously. Not just rant about it on PB.

    I see no serious method of "investigating" this. But you may have ideas?
    An investigation into, what, exactly? Even if someone made a racist comment to Meghan Markle that is unlikely to constitute a crime or a breach of any kind of disciplinary code.
  • Leon said:

    I wonder if I'd said the same about Luciana Berger, what the response would have been. I can guess PB Tories would be jumping up and down then - double standards and hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    And I don't give a toss about whether Meghan is or isn't racist, or whether the Royal Family is or isn't racist. I care so little about them in fact I've just finished writing an Adblock rule to block all mentions of them here. It's quite simple but seems to work so far

    Sorry, but no. You don't get to climb on your high horse until you tell us HOW you would investigate such vague allegations.

    Racism is serious, so you need to treat it seriously. Not just rant about it on PB.

    I see no serious method of "investigating" this. But you may have ideas?
    Listening to the media this pm it does seem that demands are being made on both Harry and Megan to identify this alleged racist individual, as it is unacceptable to paint the whole Royal Family (Queen and Prince Philip excluded) from being racist

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,207

    HYUFD said:
    That's not true. 11% of Leavers have sympathy for for H&M that's not none, that's 1 in 9 Leavers. 1 in 5 fall between having sympathy or don't know.

    I fall in the 1 in 9 Leavers. You of course are a Remainer.
    One can also have sympathy for them, while also thinking they have behaved... foolishly.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Stocky said:

    Everyone: I have some very sad news to pass on.

    I`d inquired about Nichomar who I`d noticed hadn`t posted since 19 January and was aware that he was in hospital.

    I`ve received a message from Nichomar`s daughter today.

    Nichomar dies of cancer on 22 January.

    His daughter is pleased that we are thinking about him and has asked me to pass on the bad news to you all.

    Nichomar has been posting for near-on six years and his posts totalled 7500.

    Very sad day.

    Thanks for letting us know. Sad news indeed.

    This was his last post here, I think:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3219748/#Comment_3219748
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Leon said:

    I wonder if I'd said the same about Luciana Berger, what the response would have been. I can guess PB Tories would be jumping up and down then - double standards and hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    And I don't give a toss about whether Meghan is or isn't racist, or whether the Royal Family is or isn't racist. I care so little about them in fact I've just finished writing an Adblock rule to block all mentions of them here. It's quite simple but seems to work so far

    Sorry, but no. You don't get to climb on your high horse until you tell us HOW you would investigate such vague allegations.

    Racism is serious, so you need to treat it seriously. Not just rant about it on PB.

    I see no serious method of "investigating" this. But you may have ideas?
    Listening to the media this pm it does seem that demands are being made on both Harry and Megan to identify this alleged racist individual, as it is unacceptable to paint the whole Royal Family (Queen and Prince Philip excluded) from being racist

    One quote used on Sky does apply to the whole Royal Family and seems entirely appropriate.

    Over 70 female MPs in parliament, both Conservative and Labour, came out and called out the 'colonial undertones' of articles and headlines written about Meghan ... yet no one from my family ever said anything over those three years. That hurts.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,922

    Would like this here to be honest (with caveats). I broke the law at the weekend to meet with my parents (both vaccinated more than 4 weeks ago, me 3.5 weeks ago). Not zero risk, but with current prevalance and the levels of care we have taken, pretty close to.
    I was surprised we did not announce something similar to the Americans allowing vaccinated people to meet, especially with regard to controlled environments such as visiting relatives in care homes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,207
    edited March 2021
    HYUFD said:

    17 million viewers only? The Sussex camp and TV anchors were talking 100 million this morning!

    The Superbowl got 96 million viewers in February
    https://www.nfl.com/news/super-bowl-lv-draws-audience-of-96-4-million-viewers
    To be fair, it did air at 11pm on the East coast, so there will be a lot of catch up viewing today.

    Also, it's not the Superbowl.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That's not true. 11% of Leavers have sympathy for for H&M that's not none, that's 1 in 9 Leavers. 1 in 5 fall between having sympathy or don't know.

    I fall in the 1 in 9 Leavers. You of course are a Remainer.
    One can also have sympathy for them, while also thinking they have behaved... foolishly.
    Indeed. One can also have rather more sympathy with Harry than with Meghan.

    One can also be losing their remaining sympathy by the day, given the wholesale contradiction involved in saying "we want to be left alone" and giving a gigantic interview in the US to be watched by tens of millions of people.
  • Gavin "ooh Betty" Williamson.

    Frank Spencer didn't have a Northern accent, FFS!
    He doesn't have the accent. But he has the same gormless demeanour and same propensity for utter stupidity.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    In response to Labour's call for an investigation into alleged racism with the monarchy perhaps the Royals should call upon Baroness Chakrabati to investigate?

    She could then do a thorough investigation, clear the monarchy of any alleged wrong doing, then be made Duchess Chakrabati for her service.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Fascinating how the map of the UK shows how Covid is retreating to the north. Isle of Wight, west Devon and South Hams now down to tiny case numbers. Very few strongholds of the Bastard Bug until you get into North Wales and the Midlands.

    There is a fascinating geography dissertation to be written about this. The pattern is exactly the same as the last time the tide went out last summer. Why should these places be higher? Density? (But why not London?) Climate? (But why not the adjacent rural areas?) Socio-economic mix? Connectivity?
    Obesity
    Fascinating - could be. Some analysis to be done. Although instinctively I would think obesity would not affect numbers of positive tests; rather, it would affect how seriously ill you get.
    Or both? If you are obese you are more likely to get symptoms bad enough that you will get tested, perhaps. And in a community prone to obesity pools of infection will linger, like sinters in the spring - in hospitals, in people with Long Covid, and so on.

    It is obvious that morbid overweightness is a major determinant in how an individual or a nation suffers from this horrible bug
    One of my long covid (And very much not obese) friends who got the bug has a very obese wife who he mentioned got away with only slight breathlessness whilst he went through the ringer !
    Being male and over 50 is a massive detriment no matter how fit you are in terms of virus outcome.
    One thing about the vaccine, it'll work best if you're not obese mind.
    Yes. I put on a chunk in this here Lockdown 3. But I've now lost 6 pounds and I've got 5 to go, to hit my target weight. The virus is really an alarm call for us all. Drop the lard
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,104
    edited March 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    17 million viewers only? The Sussex camp and TV anchors were talking 100 million this morning!

    The Superbowl got 96 million viewers in February
    https://www.nfl.com/news/super-bowl-lv-draws-audience-of-96-4-million-viewers
    To be fair, it did air at 11pm on the East coast, so there will be a lot of catch up viewing today.

    Also, it's not the Superbowl.
    The BBC LA correspondent at lunchtime said it could have got 100 million viewers and beaten the Superbowl which I thought was absurd.

    The idea the average Middle American could care more about the Sussexes whinging than the Superbowl was ludicrous as the viewing figures prove.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1368933279085236224

    Yet at the same time asking the US to send them supplies......

    Weren't we assured by various euphiles on here that the whole thing was just for monitoring and they wouldn't be using the permission system to block exports? Have any of those people apologised for being wrong?
    I didn't think the EU would actually block exports, and I was wrong.
    Yeah I'm in that camp too, I didn't think they'd be idiotic enough to actually do it, I'd still be shocked if they ban exports to the UK given how heavily reliant the Pfizer production process is on UK exports but now I wouldn't rule it out.

    This is exactly the the kind of misstep that the UK should be seizing on with low CT rates and generous long term investment allowances. Instead we're putting taxes up and limited allowances to just two years.
  • x

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.

    Cases down 13% regardless, but clearly would have been a much bigger fall without the extra load of false positives
    You have no evidence for such an assertion. False positives was a bullshit hypothesis when it was advanced last autumn, and it's bullshit now unless you can come up with actual evidence.

    Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.

    --AS
    It would help if the government would explain the process for guarding against false positives. If every positive test by lateral flow must be confirmed by PCR then I would think the true false positive count would be miniscule. But if there are no safeguards then there will be some false positives; its simply a statistical fact.
    The farago back in september about this was instructive. Clearly the increase in cases was not due to false positives (to any realistic viewer). But with 900,000 tests a day, checks do need to be in place.
    AIUI the in-school testing this week is (inexplicably) not subject to confirmatory PCR, but after this week the home tests all will be. The FP of lateral flow tests is overstated by PHE, most studies show ~0.1%, so (assuming they are included in the case numbers at all) we'll see a few hundred/small thousands of those this week and nothing much after that.

    For PCR itself, false positives are practically impossible except for contamination, and contamination is less likely the less virus there is around generally. One difficulty of measuring FP at such levels is the lack of a ground truth against which to compare, except for banked pre-covid blood. That's also a difficulty of measuring the FN rate of lateral flow testing, of course.

    --AS
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    17 million viewers only? The Sussex camp and TV anchors were talking 100 million this morning!

    The Superbowl got 96 million viewers in February
    https://www.nfl.com/news/super-bowl-lv-draws-audience-of-96-4-million-viewers
    To be fair, it did air at 11pm on the East coast, so there will be a lot of catch up viewing today.

    Also, it's not the Superbowl.
    The BBC LA correspondent at lunchtime said it could have got 100 million viewers and beaten the Superbowl which I thought was absurd.

    The idea the average Middle American could care more about the Sussexes whinging than the Superbowl was ludicrous as the viewing figures prove.
    They should have billed it as the LA Chargers vs London Monarchs in the NFL (No Family Love) ....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.

    Cases down 13% regardless, but clearly would have been a much bigger fall without the extra load of false positives
    You have no evidence for such an assertion. False positives was a bullshit hypothesis when it was advanced last autumn, and it's bullshit now unless you can come up with actual evidence.

    Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.

    --AS
    What a weird aggressive post.

    I am quoting the government's own estimate of false positives for lateral flow tests, which is 0.31%, so an extra 300,000 tests conducted compared to the same day last week would generate another 900 false positives, and so the case fall looks like 13% rather than the reality of more like 30%.

    False positives are a fact of life for any test no matter how many childish swear words you want to bring out.
    The stats for lateral flow tests for school kids should be shown in stats as a separate column. Millions of tests. Done by amateurs. Some are going to be false +.
    I doubt they're in the figures today; only 800,000 tests were done for our current case load; it was higher on three days last week. The average over the last fortnight has been just short of 700,000.
This discussion has been closed.