Really interesting. Putting the adjectives in order voters believe Johnson to be a weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being.
Pretty much as I see him.
A weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being that they still vote for a lot.
Likeable is a huge Asset
Yes, though Johnson seems unable to sustain likeability for long in personal relationships, whether familial or friends. It will be interesting to see how long he can sustain it with the public. His other metrics look disastrous.
Really interesting. Putting the adjectives in order voters believe Johnson to be a weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being.
Pretty much as I see him.
A weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being that they still vote for a lot.
Likeable is a huge Asset
Yes, though Johnson seems unable to sustain likeability for long in personal relationships, whether familial or friends. It will be interesting to see how long he can sustain it with the public. His other metrics look disastrous.
The more people get to know Johnson, the less they like him?
Yes, it’s quite odd. It is possible to believe - if one cares either way - that MM had a tough time with the Royal F (everyone does, if The Crown is accurate) but that she is ALSO quite cunning, maybe even manipulative, and uses her beauty and gender effectively. She’s quite a successful Hollywood actress, it’s what they do
So it’s possible she blind-sided Harry with this. Or she said it in a way he did not quite expect. Cf her exaggeration about the ‘several’ incidents, whereas, in truth, just once
Meghan married into the royal family as a great move to go from C list actress to permanent A lister. She could not give a toss about the royal family as an institution and as soon as she could she got out.
Harry still though obviously retains familial ties to the royals and is now having to row back to minimise the damage. However she should watch out, Meghan will likely now have an eye on her next career move, given Harry is now of less use to her give it a few years and she might be looking to get out of that relationship too and do a Jackie Onassis and marry a billionaire and take an even further step up
A run-of-the-mill billionaire is a “step up” from a prince of the royal family? Call yourself a monarchist? Pah!
Many billionaires are little better than merchants, they used to below peasants!
There weren't billionaires in the middle ages except with inflation in today's terms.
Though even then merchants and farmers were still above peasants just below knights
Medici, surely? There were a number of such people/houses.
Also, traditional history has tended to concentrate on those with political power, but there were also a number of extremely rich non-aristocracy people/families who stayed out of limelight. But were lending money (for example) on the scale of financing monarchs and their wars.
Really interesting. Putting the adjectives in order voters believe Johnson to be a weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being.
Pretty much as I see him.
I think you (and OGH) missed one important metric.
He seems to be a weak, indecisive, incompetent, untrustworthy, barely likeable human being who is preferred to be PM over Keir Starmer.
Is this obligatory? If so this is really tough on younger workers who may not have space at home, and who like being in an office (they do exist, I’ve met some). It means MOST of the week - four days - will be spent at home.
We are rushing through a social revolution without much thought
Also not good for innovation-based work. There the model is to create a workplace - with common kitchens, eating and play areas (e.g. big-arse TV/gaming screens) - where the kids do not want to do home, but spend more time together in a low stress setting, letting ideas percolate in informal ways. I have seen this very intentionally designed at a couple of computational biology and synthetic biology 'offices'.
Also very hard on fathers of newborns (if it is compulsory). Few people enjoy being trapped indoors 24/7 with a screaming ten month old baby. Yes this is already hard on the mothers, but they have to do the chestfeeding so it makes sense.
This will pile a lot of pressure on marriages and families. It is being done heedlessly, and for profit.
Mothers of newborns even more so!
On international Woman's day, it is worth noting how working mothers have been doing most of the home education as well as childcare, and still having to appear bright on Zoom.
Er, I actually say "this is already hard on the mothers"
Really interesting. Putting the adjectives in order voters believe Johnson to be a weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being.
Pretty much as I see him.
A weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being that they still vote for a lot.
Likeable is a huge Asset
Yes, though Johnson seems unable to sustain likeability for long in personal relationships, whether familial or friends. It will be interesting to see how long he can sustain it with the public. His other metrics look disastrous.
It's also very surprising that the header omits the 'Best Prime Minister' figures from the latest YouGov. Or rather not surprising at all, since they don't fit the anti-Boris narrative:
Once again there is a strong age divide, with youngsters, women, and politically Labour voters pro H and M. SE class and geography make little difference.
Is this obligatory? If so this is really tough on younger workers who may not have space at home, and who like being in an office (they do exist, I’ve met some). It means MOST of the week - four days - will be spent at home.
We are rushing through a social revolution without much thought
As I foresaw - the accountants have realised that, just like the "gig" economy, you can pass business costs onto the employee.
In this case, office space.
Bring Your Own. First it was was BYO mobile, then BYPO internet connection, then it was BYO computer - log into a VM on the company setup, so all you need is Citrix et al.
Now it is BYO desk, office space, chair, monitor(s)......
And it's actually worse than that as it means you no longer have your own space in the office as its shared by other people.
"hot desking" was a thing in my industry pre covid
Personally I prefer having my own workspace at home rather than looking around a crowded office to find a spare desk, if there are any after a 90 minute commute.
As it happens my employer sent around a survey today asking employees thoughts about working practices going forward.
My team to a person chose 0 days in office please - I chose 1 day (a week)
Is this obligatory? If so this is really tough on younger workers who may not have space at home, and who like being in an office (they do exist, I’ve met some). It means MOST of the week - four days - will be spent at home.
We are rushing through a social revolution without much thought
As I foresaw - the accountants have realised that, just like the "gig" economy, you can pass business costs onto the employee.
In this case, office space.
Bring Your Own. First it was was BYO mobile, then BYPO internet connection, then it was BYO computer - log into a VM on the company setup, so all you need is Citrix et al.
Now it is BYO desk, office space, chair, monitor(s)......
And it's actually worse than that as it means you no longer have your own space in the office as its shared by other people.
"hot desking" was a thing in my industry pre covid
Personally I prefer having my own workspace at home rather than looking around a crowded office to find a spare desk, if there are any after a 90 minute commute.
As it happens my employer sent around a survey today asking employees thoughts about working practices going forward.
My team to a person chose 0 days in office please - I chose 1 day (a week)
At least you'll be able to find a desk when you do go in.
Just realised that both of them are now estranged from their respective fathers. That’s sad. It also makes them a rival to the Royal Family as ‘most dysfunctional royal family’
Harry is also estranged from his brother, who they used to share an incredible bond.
If there’s a victim in all this, it’s Harry. Lost his mother as a kid in the most brutal, public way. Now he’s lost, in effect, his father and brother as well, and has no obvious future role, once this particular psychodrama has played out.
For all the money and privilege, it is not an enviable place to be
Not to get all psychobabbly... but do you think the fact that his father - when asked to choose between his wife and the Royal family chose the Royal family - inflenced his choices?
Is this obligatory? If so this is really tough on younger workers who may not have space at home, and who like being in an office (they do exist, I’ve met some). It means MOST of the week - four days - will be spent at home.
We are rushing through a social revolution without much thought
Announced ages ago at my place we're going to 2 days in 3 days out when we return. Already sublet half the office. Reaction amongst colleagues overwhelmingly positive - keep hold of 3 lie ins a week, and still in town just enough to stay sane and go on nights out.
Really interesting. Putting the adjectives in order voters believe Johnson to be a weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being.
Pretty much as I see him.
People do seem to have strong opinions on Johnson, and mostly negative ones. Starmers problems is not enough feel strongly about him at all.
Perhaps out of lockdown he will be able to make an impact. If not, he is toast.
Though unfair to ask who would make the better Prime Minister when one of them already has the job. It takes imagination. If you'd asked that question when Johnson was Foreign Secretary and May PM. She'd have been way ahead. A better question would be 'who is the better leader of their respective party?'
Is this obligatory? If so this is really tough on younger workers who may not have space at home, and who like being in an office (they do exist, I’ve met some). It means MOST of the week - four days - will be spent at home.
We are rushing through a social revolution without much thought
Also not good for innovation-based work. There the model is to create a workplace - with common kitchens, eating and play areas (e.g. big-arse TV/gaming screens) - where the kids do not want to do home, but spend more time together in a low stress setting, letting ideas percolate in informal ways. I have seen this very intentionally designed at a couple of computational biology and synthetic biology 'offices'.
That is exactly why my employer was reluctant to embrace fully-remote working as an option prior to being forced to by the pandemic. After a year of mandatory WFH, while it's clear that many staff find some office time beneficial, we do not seem to have seen any noticeable hit to productivity generally or innovation and collaboration specifically. Certainly my experience working in the office was that my productivity would be mitigated by the noise and distraction of the open-plan office, and I'd frequently head to one of our "quiet areas" to work when not in meetings or other activities where I'd need to work in person with others.
As a result, the company is moving to a "work from anywhere" model with employees opting to be based at home or at the office. Neither option means you have to work 100% from your nominated choice: the effective difference is that those opting for "from home" can have home office equipment provided by the company, those opting for "from the office" will have a desk available at the office[1]. People are expected to be sensible: if you opt for "from the office" you should be coming in often enough to justify the allocation of an office desk. If you opt for "from home" you should be working from home often enough to justify having equipment provided for you, and you will have to expect to have to find your own spot to work from when you do go into the office.
This will start once our pandemic WFH mandate ends, planned for September. I think it should work well with most people able to set a mix that will work for them. It's still a work in progress, and initially for mundane reasons to do with tax, visas and the like, if we choose the "from home" option we have to stay in our country of employment and there are (local) tax reasons that mean that in the US there are some states we can't, yet, move to. We will gradually move to a single set of pay-bands for the US, but because the company knows they'll be competing for talent with other employers across the country, there won't be any pay downgrades if you move to a cheaper location.
I'm opting for the "from home"choice, and for the next year or so we'll be staying here in the NYC 'burbs. I'll probably go into the office one day every two-week "sprint" for our kick-off and review meetings. Longer-term we're considering moving to Rhode Island or near to it to be closer to my wife's family. If/when that happens, I'll probably just go in to the NYC office a few times a year for major meetings.
[1] We'll be implementing some degree of "dynamic workspace" a.k.a. hot-desking for the office space we'll still be using.
Yet at the same time asking the US to send them supplies......
She's got vaccine. No one wants to take it because of their policy of saying it doesn't work in order to defect from their own failures in procurement.
That chart is much better evidence for the benefit of natural herd immunity rather than vaccines - the US rate there was collapsing down at the point it was level with the EU and the fall started well before any vaccine benefit, just because they'd let it get very high beforehand. Same thing in the UK where Kent saw the fastest falls and is now extremely low prevalence.
What the hell was going on under Cameron that Boris has massively turned around???
It could be that the dismaying experience of seeing a complete buffoon of a male somehow rise to the top political job here has significantly increased our desire and support for female empowerment.
Really interesting. Putting the adjectives in order voters believe Johnson to be a weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being.
Pretty much as I see him.
A weak indecisive incompetent untrustworthy barely likeable human being that they still vote for a lot.
Just realised that both of them are now estranged from their respective fathers. That’s sad. It also makes them a rival to the Royal Family as ‘most dysfunctional royal family’
Am I the only one who'se been prompted to see what's new for the spring/summer men's range every time I see the H&M references on here?
I suspect so. I doubt many others on here care about cheap fast fashion.
My team to a person chose 0 days in office please - I chose 1 day (a week)
You are not on the team?
I manage the team -I treated our responses separately
I suspect that there might be an issue with new team members, especially...... I don't know if this applies ..... if they're quite young.
A relation of mine struggled a bit with remote working in his first accountancy job post-Uni. He's in New Zealand S. Island so of course they're fine now.
First journo question: Given the inevitable rise in positive tests amongst school children do you think it is fair to say that Harry will never be King?
Citing popularity does not mean people misunderstand royalty, I always find that a very strange attempt to 'correct' people in a smug way.
If the monarch or heirs become really unpopular it could be a sign the institution is in trouble. If Charles were on -20 no it wouldn't prevent him becoming king but it could be a sign he might not be one for long.
People act like individual or institutional popularity is irrelevant but it isn't. The more minor ones are more so, but may add to the collective institutional position if there are a dozen drags on the popularity.
And the system needs to be popular, or at least not unpopular, to survive.
That chart is much better evidence for the benefit of natural herd immunity rather than vaccines - the US rate there was collapsing down at the point it was level with the EU and the fall started well before any vaccine benefit, just because they'd let it get very high beforehand. Same thing in the UK where Kent saw the fastest falls and is now extremely low prevalence.
Or the effect of shit getting real (locally) inducing tighter self-lockdown behaviour.
If there's a lot of it around locally, people are likely a lot more careful/compliant with lockdowns
Just realised that both of them are now estranged from their respective fathers. That’s sad. It also makes them a rival to the Royal Family as ‘most dysfunctional royal family’
Am I the only one who'se been prompted to see what's new for the spring/summer men's range every time I see the H&M references on here?
I kind of assumed it was being done deliberately.
If his name was Stephen I'd expect people would be writing it as M&S.
Citing popularity does not mean people misunderstand royalty, I always find that a very strange attempt to 'correct' people in a smug way.
If the monarch or heirs become really unpopular it could be a sign the institution is in trouble. If Charles were on -20 no it wouldn't prevent him becoming king but it could be a sign he might not be one for long.
People act like individual or institutional popularity is irrelevant but it isn't. The more minor ones are more so, but may add to the collective institutional position if there are a dozen drags on the popularity.
And the system needs to be popular, or at least not unpopular, to survive.
It's a parody/humorous account - as the second tweet indicates.
Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.
No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.
Cases down 13% regardless, but clearly would have been a much bigger fall without the extra load of false positives
You have no evidence for such an assertion. False positives was a bullshit hypothesis when it was advanced last autumn, and it's bullshit now unless you can come up with actual evidence.
Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.
Citing popularity does not mean people misunderstand royalty, I always find that a very strange attempt to 'correct' people in a smug way.
If the monarch or heirs become really unpopular it could be a sign the institution is in trouble. If Charles were on -20 no it wouldn't prevent him becoming king but it could be a sign he might not be one for long.
People act like individual or institutional popularity is irrelevant but it isn't. The more minor ones are more so, but may add to the collective institutional position if there are a dozen drags on the popularity.
And the system needs to be popular, or at least not unpopular, to survive.
It's a parody/humorous account - as the second tweet indicates.
But people make that point seriously as well, including on here, that's why the second tweet works, by following up something people do say with an outright absurdity.
Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.
Cases down 13% regardless, but clearly would have been a much bigger fall without the extra load of false positives
You have no evidence for such an assertion. False positives was a bullshit hypothesis when it was advanced last autumn, and it's bullshit now unless you can come up with actual evidence.
Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.
--AS
What a weird aggressive post.
I am quoting the government's own estimate of false positives for lateral flow tests, which is 0.31%, so an extra 300,000 tests conducted compared to the same day last week would generate another 900 false positives, and so the case fall looks like 13% rather than the reality of more like 30%.
False positives are a fact of life for any test no matter how many childish swear words you want to bring out.
I stand by my point, a stamp duty cut which made houses more expensive and made it harder for people to buy new houses vs a pay rise for people that kept us well.
Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.
Cases down 13% regardless, but clearly would have been a much bigger fall without the extra load of false positives
You have no evidence for such an assertion. False positives was a bullshit hypothesis when it was advanced last autumn, and it's bullshit now unless you can come up with actual evidence.
Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.
--AS
What a weird aggressive post.
I am quoting the government's own estimate of false positives for lateral flow tests, which is 0.31%, so an extra 300,000 tests conducted compared to the same day last week would generate another 900 false positives, and so the case fall looks like 13% rather than the reality of more like 30%.
False positives are a fact of life for any test no matter how many childish swear words you want to bring out.
The stats for lateral flow tests for school kids should be shown in stats as a separate column. Millions of tests. Done by amateurs. Some are going to be false +.
The party that has elected 2 women leaders compared to Labours zero?
Ursula levels of lack of self awareness
For some reason I found the phrasing of THE Conservative Government rather than THIS Conservative Government odd. As though we've only had one, continuously up to this point (it may feel like it to some) or that precious such governments were pretty good to women.
Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.
No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
I think the Government will resist pressure to unlock faster than the current timetable until we get to the other side of Easter; but by then the pressure to push for an end to lockdown end of May rather than mid June will be quite a clamour.
Always assuming the schools opening doesn't see a major spike. Which I am not expecting.
Just realised that both of them are now estranged from their respective fathers. That’s sad. It also makes them a rival to the Royal Family as ‘most dysfunctional royal family’
Harry is also estranged from his brother, who they used to share an incredible bond.
If there’s a victim in all this, it’s Harry. Lost his mother as a kid in the most brutal, public way. Now he’s lost, in effect, his father and brother as well, and has no obvious future role, once this particular psychodrama has played out.
For all the money and privilege, it is not an enviable place to be
Not to get all psychobabbly... but do you think the fact that his father - when asked to choose between his wife and the Royal family chose the Royal family - inflenced his choices?
When I got married for the second (and hopefully last) time I gave what I was doing far more thought than the first time. In particular I wrote my own vows and the closing one was this -
"I promise to put our relationship above all others."
Which I meant literally. Above friends. Above siblings. Above parents. Above children.
And while silver bullets don't exist in this sphere I reckon this is crux. Nobody other than the couple can know, but if that's what Harry is doing, and Meghan is reciprocating, you would expect them to be just fine. Course, it can also lead to 'folie a deux' and a serial killing spree - but you know what I mean. So long as they're tight it's alright.
I stand by my point, a stamp duty cut which made houses more expensive and made it harder for people to buy new houses vs a pay rise for people that kept us well.
It's obvious which was the better decision.
Didn't you say the pay rise was £300mn? So that is 250% of the figure you gave. You think 250% is spot on?
And again not much evidence that houses are more expensive due to a stamp duty cut and you need to include stamp duty not just looking at houses.
Though I suspect many people misread the market under lockdown and house price moves may have increased rather than decreased due to lockdown regardless of stamp duty. How many people on this site have said they've moved in the past year? A lot of people are reviewing their personal circumstances and people can't do anything else, can't go out, can't go on holidays so I think a lot of people are looking to move instead.
Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.
No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
I think the Government will resist pressure to unlock faster than the current timetable until we get to the other side of Easter; but by then the pressure to push for an end to lockdown end of May rather than mid June will be quite a clamour.
Always assuming the schools opening doesn't see a major spike. Which I am not expecting.
Son just texted me to say he was coming back from supermarket and the bandstand outside the supermarket was packed with school kids......
Am I the only one finding it somewhat ironic that International Women's Day is being dominated by the trials and tribulations of being a Duchess in the modern world?
Not sure why Boris is holding this press conference other than to take on the Royals issues
And noticed Sturgeon did not attend today's Scots press conference
Schools have gone back today.
Its the first key date achieved on the unlocking plan and kids being back at school is great news.
I have no problem with that but he really had little to say
However, he has just said he has a policy of not talking about Royal Family matters and he is not going to do that today
To be fair sensible response
I've little time for the PM. Even less for the Press. Do they really think the average parent wants to hear about the Royals rather than schools? Out of touch elite? The media.
Just realised that both of them are now estranged from their respective fathers. That’s sad. It also makes them a rival to the Royal Family as ‘most dysfunctional royal family’
Harry is also estranged from his brother, who they used to share an incredible bond.
If there’s a victim in all this, it’s Harry. Lost his mother as a kid in the most brutal, public way. Now he’s lost, in effect, his father and brother as well, and has no obvious future role, once this particular psychodrama has played out.
For all the money and privilege, it is not an enviable place to be
Not to get all psychobabbly... but do you think the fact that his father - when asked to choose between his wife and the Royal family chose the Royal family - inflenced his choices?
He is now completely dependant on his wife for his happiness. She's in her home state, SoCa, where she has family and friends, and feels super comfortable. All good for her. She's an actress and Hollywood is on the doorstep. He, on the other hand, has lost all his wider family, is removed from his homeland, has no obvious job, and I presume is detached from all his friends in he UK. Does he have any real friends in Santa Barbara? I doubt it.
If she gets tired of him, and fancies a divorce...
Nightmare. And the kids will grow up not knowing either grandfather, even though they are alive. I can see the kids rebelling, in turn, as Harry has rebelled.
It can hardly be a surprise that an incompetent bumbling buffoon is considered by the general public to be an incompetent bumbling buffoon. It would be bad enough if that was their opinion of Gavin "ooh Betty" Williamson. But no, its the PM.
Doesn't mean that they will remove him though. Tory members rate very highly Steve "there is no border in the Irish Sea" Baker whose departmental responsibility includes the operation of the border in the Irish Sea. So being an incompetent liar is almost a requirement at the moment for a cabinet job.
Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.
No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
Excellent news. Cratering. And yes if this continues we will exit lockdown by or in May
Am I the only one finding it somewhat ironic that International Women's Day is being dominated by the trials and tribulations of being a Duchess in the modern world?
But gender inequality among the elite is what it's all about. It's why Zoe Ball is paid what she is.
Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.
No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
I think the Government will resist pressure to unlock faster than the current timetable until we get to the other side of Easter; but by then the pressure to push for an end to lockdown end of May rather than mid June will be quite a clamour.
Always assuming the schools opening doesn't see a major spike. Which I am not expecting.
Son just texted me to say he was coming back from supermarket and the bandstand outside the supermarket was packed with school kids......
As long as the teachers haven't been crammed together in the staff room, and the parents haven't rekindled schoolgate romances, that's probably OK
Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.
Cases down 13% regardless, but clearly would have been a much bigger fall without the extra load of false positives
You have no evidence for such an assertion. False positives was a bullshit hypothesis when it was advanced last autumn, and it's bullshit now unless you can come up with actual evidence.
Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.
--AS
What a weird aggressive post.
I am quoting the government's own estimate of false positives for lateral flow tests, which is 0.31%, so an extra 300,000 tests conducted compared to the same day last week would generate another 900 false positives, and so the case fall looks like 13% rather than the reality of more like 30%.
False positives are a fact of life for any test no matter how many childish swear words you want to bring out.
On PCR tests https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result the false positive rate is essentially zero If the test comes back positive, we can be sure that it has correctly detected genetic material from the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the virus that causes COVID-19. The incorrectly ascribed "false positive" is when the virus is at subclinical load “we can be pretty sure that your test result is a true positive. But it may be a subclinical case, meaning that your viral load is so low that you are not infectious and cannot spread the virus to other people, including those in your immediate household — which is a good thing!” which means the virus is still, well, there which is different to it not being there regardless of the "case" - false positive PCR actually means almost certainly asymptomatic positive PCR but not actually false positive.
I can't find too much on LFTs and what a "false positive" may mean though, or where the 0.3% figure arises from
Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.
No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
I think the Government will resist pressure to unlock faster than the current timetable until we get to the other side of Easter; but by then the pressure to push for an end to lockdown end of May rather than mid June will be quite a clamour.
Always assuming the schools opening doesn't see a major spike. Which I am not expecting.
Son just texted me to say he was coming back from supermarket and the bandstand outside the supermarket was packed with school kids......
As long as the teachers haven't been crammed together in the staff room, and the parents haven't rekindled schoolgate romances, that's probably OK
Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.
Cases down 13% regardless, but clearly would have been a much bigger fall without the extra load of false positives
You have no evidence for such an assertion. False positives was a bullshit hypothesis when it was advanced last autumn, and it's bullshit now unless you can come up with actual evidence.
Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.
--AS
What a weird aggressive post.
I am quoting the government's own estimate of false positives for lateral flow tests, which is 0.31%, so an extra 300,000 tests conducted compared to the same day last week would generate another 900 false positives, and so the case fall looks like 13% rather than the reality of more like 30%.
False positives are a fact of life for any test no matter how many childish swear words you want to bring out.
On PCR tests https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result the flase positive rate is essentially zero If the test comes back positive, we can be sure that it has correctly detected genetic material from the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the virus that causes COVID-19. The incorrectly ascribed "false positive" is when the virus is at subclinical load “we can be pretty sure that your test result is a true positive. But it may be a subclinical case, meaning that your viral load is so low that you are not infectious and cannot spread the virus to other people, including those in your immediate household — which is a good thing!” which means the virus is still, well, there which is different to it not being there regardless of the "case" - false positive PCR actually means almost certainly asymptomatic positive PCR but not actually false positive.
I can't find too much on LFTs and what a "false positive" may mean though, or where the 0.3% figure arises from
Given the rise in testing is coming entirely from lateral flow tests, whilst PCR numbers are going down, and it's current policy that a clear PCR test can not over-rule a positive lateral flow test, it's the false positive numbers for these which is far more relevant.
Testing results announced today up 60% on last week - figures this week are going to be a joke.
Malmesbury for a while did a graph comparing the ONS survey results to the Test and Trace figures - calculating the proportion of positive people being identified by our testing, and it was often not a large proportion.
So you would expect that an increase in testing would result in an increase in cases identified - and that has to be a good thing. Identifying the infectious allows them to be isolated so that they don't spread it to others.
What will be interesting is seeing whether this expected bump in numbers is followed by a resumed decline, or if open schools are sufficient to push R above 1.
Why not just give the (frontline) NHS workers exposed to risk a one-off tax-free bonus of £2,000 each - put it in the Covid slush pot for FY20/21; may as well given the £400bn spaffed up the wall - and up their pay by 2.1%, at a cost of the extra £1.2bn per year or whatever?
These will be rounding errors over 5 years anyway.
Why not just give the (frontline) NHS workers exposed to risk a one-off tax-free bonus of £2,000 each - put it in the Covid slush pot for FY20/21; may as well given the £400bn spaffed up the wall - and up their pay by 2.1%, at a cost of the extra £1.2bn per year or whatever?
These will be rounding errors over 5 years anyway.
I think the point is that the 1% is HMG submission to the pay review board and they will make their recommendation in May
Once that has been published each administration will have a decision to make
Comments
Also, traditional history has tended to concentrate on those with political power, but there were also a number of extremely rich non-aristocracy people/families who stayed out of limelight. But were lending money (for example) on the scale of financing monarchs and their wars.
He seems to be a weak, indecisive, incompetent, untrustworthy, barely likeable human being who is preferred to be PM over Keir Starmer.
Net sympathy:
Senior Royals: -6
Harry & Meghan: -27
Once again there is a strong age divide, with youngsters, women, and politically Labour voters pro H and M. SE class and geography make little difference.
That is why it nets out like it does.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1368944898938912776?s=20
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1368944628666413058?s=20
Personally I prefer having my own workspace at home rather than looking around a crowded office to find a spare desk, if there are any after a 90 minute commute.
As it happens my employer sent around a survey today asking employees thoughts about working practices going forward.
My team to a person chose 0 days in office please - I chose 1 day (a week)
I think H&M will take that.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1368873011877666816
Yet at the same time asking the US to send them supplies......
As a result, the company is moving to a "work from anywhere" model with employees opting to be based at home or at the office. Neither option means you have to work 100% from your nominated choice: the effective difference is that those opting for "from home" can have home office equipment provided by the company, those opting for "from the office" will have a desk available at the office[1]. People are expected to be sensible: if you opt for "from the office" you should be coming in often enough to justify the allocation of an office desk. If you opt for "from home" you should be working from home often enough to justify having equipment provided for you, and you will have to expect to have to find your own spot to work from when you do go into the office.
This will start once our pandemic WFH mandate ends, planned for September. I think it should work well with most people able to set a mix that will work for them. It's still a work in progress, and initially for mundane reasons to do with tax, visas and the like, if we choose the "from home" option we have to stay in our country of employment and there are (local) tax reasons that mean that in the US there are some states we can't, yet, move to. We will gradually move to a single set of pay-bands for the US, but because the company knows they'll be competing for talent with other employers across the country, there won't be any pay downgrades if you move to a cheaper location.
I'm opting for the "from home"choice, and for the next year or so we'll be staying here in the NYC 'burbs. I'll probably go into the office one day every two-week "sprint" for our kick-off and review meetings. Longer-term we're considering moving to Rhode Island or near to it to be closer to my wife's family. If/when that happens, I'll probably just go in to the NYC office a few times a year for major meetings.
[1] We'll be implementing some degree of "dynamic workspace" a.k.a. hot-desking for the office space we'll still be using.
Sauce for the goose and all that jazz.
https://twitter.com/mseltzermayr/status/1368949083327639552?s=20
We'll be doing this even more than we did pre-Covid. Already been signalled, but not formalised yet.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9337999/Church-vicar-says-Meghans-claim-Harry-secretly-tied-knot-earlier-easily-verified.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK
He's now King.
It's just I have no link to it...
A relation of mine struggled a bit with remote working in his first accountancy job post-Uni. He's in New Zealand S. Island so of course they're fine now.
If the monarch or heirs become really unpopular it could be a sign the institution is in trouble. If Charles were on -20 no it wouldn't prevent him becoming king but it could be a sign he might not be one for long.
People act like individual or institutional popularity is irrelevant but it isn't. The more minor ones are more so, but may add to the collective institutional position if there are a dozen drags on the popularity.
And the system needs to be popular, or at least not unpopular, to survive.
If there's a lot of it around locally, people are likely a lot more careful/compliant with lockdowns
If his name was Stephen I'd expect people would be writing it as M&S.
The party that has elected 2 women leaders compared to Labours zero?
Ursula levels of lack of self awareness
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1367944648900153353?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1367946662719746048?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1367297820495990787?s=20
Meanwhile on the Democratic side
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1367296732019576834?s=20
Called it weeks ago. Someone, I forget who sorry, was saying that it wasn't going to be possible to get cases below 5k for a very long time, I said on current trends it would be done by the week of the 8th. Been achieved today.
No doubt cases will fluctuate and may go up, but who cares now? The more this gets squished though the better - I highly doubt it will take until 21/6 to finish unlocking anymore.
Similarly herd immunity, which you were touting upthread.
--AS
I am quoting the government's own estimate of false positives for lateral flow tests, which is 0.31%, so an extra 300,000 tests conducted compared to the same day last week would generate another 900 false positives, and so the case fall looks like 13% rather than the reality of more like 30%.
False positives are a fact of life for any test no matter how many childish swear words you want to bring out.
And noticed Sturgeon did not attend today's Scots press conference
My numbers were pretty much spot on.
I stand by my point, a stamp duty cut which made houses more expensive and made it harder for people to buy new houses vs a pay rise for people that kept us well.
It's obvious which was the better decision.
Its the first key date achieved on the unlocking plan and kids being back at school is great news.
Always assuming the schools opening doesn't see a major spike. Which I am not expecting.
"I promise to put our relationship above all others."
Which I meant literally. Above friends. Above siblings. Above parents. Above children.
And while silver bullets don't exist in this sphere I reckon this is crux. Nobody other than the couple can know, but if that's what Harry is doing, and Meghan is reciprocating, you would expect them to be just fine. Course, it can also lead to 'folie a deux' and a serial killing spree - but you know what I mean. So long as they're tight it's alright.
However, he has just said he has a policy of not talking about Royal Family matters and he is not going to do that today
To be fair sensible response
And again not much evidence that houses are more expensive due to a stamp duty cut and you need to include stamp duty not just looking at houses.
Though I suspect many people misread the market under lockdown and house price moves may have increased rather than decreased due to lockdown regardless of stamp duty. How many people on this site have said they've moved in the past year? A lot of people are reviewing their personal circumstances and people can't do anything else, can't go out, can't go on holidays so I think a lot of people are looking to move instead.
Out of touch elite? The media.
If she gets tired of him, and fancies a divorce...
Nightmare. And the kids will grow up not knowing either grandfather, even though they are alive. I can see the kids rebelling, in turn, as Harry has rebelled.
Doesn't mean that they will remove him though. Tory members rate very highly Steve "there is no border in the Irish Sea" Baker whose departmental responsibility includes the operation of the border in the Irish Sea. So being an incompetent liar is almost a requirement at the moment for a cabinet job.
What more was there to say? Short and to the point.
If the test comes back positive, we can be sure that it has correctly detected genetic material from the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the virus that causes COVID-19.
The incorrectly ascribed "false positive" is when the virus is at subclinical load “we can be pretty sure that your test result is a true positive. But it may be a subclinical case, meaning that your viral load is so low that you are not infectious and cannot spread the virus to other people, including those in your immediate household — which is a good thing!” which means the virus is still, well, there which is different to it not being there regardless of the "case" - false positive PCR actually means almost certainly asymptomatic positive PCR but not actually false positive.
I can't find too much on LFTs and what a "false positive" may mean though, or where the 0.3% figure arises from
Given the rise in testing is coming entirely from lateral flow tests, whilst PCR numbers are going down, and it's current policy that a clear PCR test can not over-rule a positive lateral flow test, it's the false positive numbers for these which is far more relevant.
Not many round here.
So you would expect that an increase in testing would result in an increase in cases identified - and that has to be a good thing. Identifying the infectious allows them to be isolated so that they don't spread it to others.
What will be interesting is seeing whether this expected bump in numbers is followed by a resumed decline, or if open schools are sufficient to push R above 1.
One of my team is a parent of primary school age children - this individual seemed pretty pleased they were back in school
These will be rounding errors over 5 years anyway.
Once that has been published each administration will have a decision to make