Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It happens that this is a technology that I know a great deal about. And I'm not as worried as some of you here about veracity. It is entirely possible to build verification technology into cameras and webcams, such that the recipient can tell that the content has not been faked (and, optionally, who originated the image or video). I think this will make reliable photo and video journalism possible again, but there may be an intermediate period where faking is easy and verification is not widespread.
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It’s unbannable. It’s out there now. You can’t reverse scientific progress, even if it is dangerous, just as you couldn’t uninvent The Bomb, tho many wanted to
It is mightily scary. And yes it is coming at us fast
OpenAI initially tried this with their GPT idea, but soon realized it just wasn't possible.
Is that meant to be consoling? It isn’t. Look at this. A computer generated story which is entirely convincing, mildly witty, and wholly frightening. Than god I knap naughty flints and I’m not anything artier. Human creativity is doomed. BECAUSE THE MACHINES WILL ONLY GET BETTER
It actually sounds like a conscious computer reflecting on its own identity
Pity all those travel writers and novelists.....out of a job.
The interesting point will be reached when the AI starts doing art for fun. Like the Cornell Boxes in Mona Lisa Overdrive....
Or artisan flint objects.....
In all seriousness, what a lot of this progress enables people to do is allow rapid prototyping. Rather than a graphic designer having an idea and having to go through manually creating 30 different options, one click of a button and the computer will spit out a whole load of different iterations of the same idea. Or a client likes everything about an idea except can you change x or y a bit, rather than yes ok give me another day or two, the adjustment will be made then and there.
On the art - quite a lot of modern art can be done on this kind of "rotate though the idea space"
Some years ago, I came across the following -
The Che picture, printed in the style of Andy Warhol print. The eyes cut out, and replaced with swirling patterns drawn on circles, drive by an electric motor. The whole entitled "A Constant State of Revolution". Yours for 30K...
It would seem that AI, currently, could create such things.
Oh easily. Generative models are very good at taking already existing say art and adjusting parts or doing what they call style transfer i.e. remake one picture in the style of another artist. This is also aided by the fact it doesn't matter if the generative model pumps out a load of crap options, as long as among them, one looks good.
Where AI is still miles off is when you need to do fast one shot (or limited shot) learning and where for the predicted outcome it is absolutely critical to be correct, rather than either near enough is good enough type result or you are in a problem space where just let it generate loads of options / predictions and a human will collate them.
Yes - stuff like Josef Albers squares would be almost too easy......
@Philip_Thompson Delurking for a moment to say I had Covid in April last year and the hot scratchy chest thing was what stood out...for me it was more like a hot buzzing, combined with tightness that came and went. Fever stayed mild the whole time, no cough at all, lost taste and smell very temporarily. Shortness of breath came later (that was horrible). Very tired throughout. Was hard to be properly believed by NHS 111 back then without the 'classic' symptoms (until the loss of smell and taste made them listen a bit better). Good to hear you've booked a test and best of luck.
If you do test positive, and feel rotten enough to think you might need it, consider getting a pulse oximeter, though the NHS might give you one these days - worth asking. I would have found it useful in the days 7-10 phase.
PS. This site has been at its very best over the coronavirus outbreak, better than even the mainstream press and broadsheet papers. Appreciate all the stats, collated news and considered thoughts! ( @Andy_Cooke@MaxPB@Malmesbury to name a few) `
Other exciting developments with AI is across things like product design. Rather than Jony Ive slaving away over many many iterations to get the iCrap design, you can feed in a general concept you have and let the AI generate lots of different variants (including constraint say on space for the components inside).
Sadly I think the Lib Dems are near the end of their natural life, sad because a two-party system is likely to lead to an incorrect consensus a lot of the time. But the other parties were able to copy the tactics that made the Lib Dems locally successful, so now you have an incredibly powerful PM's office and hundreds of MPs as its local reps running clinics and distributing newsletters.
If the Lib Dems have made the other parties work better locally, that's all to the good. When I cut my teeth as an activist in the 80s and 90s, we ran rings round the local Conservatives. We could leaflet an area in a day or two and we knew it took the Tories a month.
Political campaigning is different now with the advent of social media.
I do agree the LD Party I joined and knew perished in the fires of the Coalition. Had there been no EU Referendum I suspect the rebuilding process would be further advanced - conversely, it's an interesting counterfactual to consider where the parties would be now if REMAIN had won 52-48.
The EU Referendum and what followed from that was a dead-end and the Party is now back to where it was in 2015 (or 1970) in terms of having to work out a new messaging from the ground up. @Gardenwalker's policy programme has little to which I object - I must confess I share some qualms about UBI - and there's a lot more about reforming local Government we could add but it's a good start.
The important thing for the Party is to have a USP which distinguishes it from the Conservative and Labour parties. It's the thing which, when you ask people what the LDs stand for, they'll say "the LDs support XXXX, the others don't".
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It happens that this is a technology that I know a great deal about. And I'm not as worried as some of you here about veracity. It is entirely possible to build verification technology into cameras and webcams, such that the recipient can tell that the content has not been faked (and, optionally, who originated the image or video). I think this will make reliable photo and video journalism possible again, but there may be an intermediate period where faking is easy and verification is not widespread.
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
As for the technology, watch this space!
--AS
You don’t think a bad actor might make cameras that don’t have that built-in tech? Like, say, China?!
I might sound a bit afeared, but remember the famous saying
‘Fear is a species of excitement’
So true. I’m really just excited.
Which famous philosopher said that?
No one. It’s a quote invented from scratch by an AI computer
Sadly I think the Lib Dems are near the end of their natural life, sad because a two-party system is likely to lead to an incorrect consensus a lot of the time. But the other parties were able to copy the tactics that made the Lib Dems locally successful, so now you have an incredibly powerful PM's office and hundreds of MPs as its local reps running clinics and distributing newsletters.
I've been telling you for a while that most Tory MPs in marginals/Red Wall seats are running their local presence as if they were LibDems. If they lose their seats, it won't be for lack of effort.
Sure, but taking the longer view, I'd imagine that the share of time MPs spend in constituencies is a lot higher now than in 1992, and that there are more clinics, and so on. So MPs may be younger than in the past, but I would imagine it is now a lifestyle less compatible with raising young kids.
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It happens that this is a technology that I know a great deal about. And I'm not as worried as some of you here about veracity. It is entirely possible to build verification technology into cameras and webcams, such that the recipient can tell that the content has not been faked (and, optionally, who originated the image or video). I think this will make reliable photo and video journalism possible again, but there may be an intermediate period where faking is easy and verification is not widespread.
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
As for the technology, watch this space!
--AS
You don’t think a bad actor might make cameras that don’t have that built-in tech? Like, say, China?!
I might sound a bit afeared, but remember the famous saying
‘Fear is a species of excitement’
So true. I’m really just excited.
Which famous philosopher said that?
No one. It’s a quote invented from scratch by an AI computer
No, because everyone would know that the photo or video it produced was unverified. This isn't like DRM for music (that completely failed for the reason you suggest) but an opt-in for those wishing to produce photographs that they can claim are genuine.
So then it would be: photo taken with a Nikon camera and verification intact = genuine, photo taken with a Sinocam = don't trust, especially if Sinocam have been found to produce fake photos in the past.
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It’s unbannable. It’s out there now. You can’t reverse scientific progress, even if it is dangerous, just as you couldn’t uninvent The Bomb, tho many wanted to
It is mightily scary. And yes it is coming at us fast
OpenAI initially tried this with their GPT idea, but soon realized it just wasn't possible.
Is that meant to be consoling? It isn’t. Look at this. A computer generated story which is entirely convincing, mildly witty, and wholly frightening. Than god I knap naughty flints and I’m not anything artier. Human creativity is doomed. BECAUSE THE MACHINES WILL ONLY GET BETTER
Thanks for the leader Gardenwalker. As a party member I receive regular emails from the leader and other party figures. Since the last election I cannot remember any of your suggestions been mentioned, Ed Davey seems entirely fixated on the plight of carers ( perhaps understandable given his background but not I think cutting edge policy). Layla Moran has moved from education where I think she had some interesting things to say to foreign affairs where she has not. Virtually everyone else is concentrating on holding their seats or winning local elections in their patch. There is a serious debate going on within the party about future policies but lack of personal contact is hampering the process. If the pandemic is under control by the autumn the Federal Conference should be used as a radical re-launch.
Thanks @Gardenwalker, interesting piece. My thoughts:
1. Scrap fees for tertiary education - yes, though I'm not sure anyone would take the Lib Dems seriously on this subject. And anyway, if fees were scrapped, how would universities be funded? I've seen it suggested on here that the reason why the Lib Dems went along with the £9k fees was that it would gain them support from university staff as it guaranteed their incomes. Didn't work, of course. Personally I'd like to see most of them go under, with most of these kids not going to university. But the genie is out of the bottle, and kids expect to have three years of partying dilligent study before they enter the big bad world.
2. Legalise cannabis - I'm fine with this. I don't have kids myself, but if I did I'd go out of my way to make sure they don't use it. I've seen the damage it can do.
3. Support Free Trade and join EFTA - The referendum was won on ending FoM. Obviously the Lib Dems aren't aiming to win an election, so to a certain extent it doesn't matter. But they need to be ready to make the case for FoM in a way that no remain politicians did in 2016. There are seats like Guildford where the LDs need votes from red wall type voters (we have them down here too).
4. Scrap Council Tax and rplace it with a Land Value Tax - Don't disagree about the inequity of CT. My only concern about any replacement is that needs to raise revenue today and any shortfall needs to be paid for.
5. Protect free speecch and personal privacy - Yes, but don't hold your breath.
6. Stand up to Google, Facebook, and Amazon - Not sure about this. Perhaps more tax should be paid, though I don't know enough about it.
7. Experiment with Universal Basic Income - It may very well be the future, but again it needs to be funded and that's what proponents of it need to grapple with. It's a bit late in the day given the impact of COVID, but my idea was to link the minimum wage to net migration and unemployment. As long migration was high and unemployment was low, the minimum wage should been going up until it started to affect the latter too. But the world has changed somewhat.
8. Scrap the TV license fee - Yes, but your idea sounds like a way of stopping people avoiding the tax by not watching TV! The BBC should move to a subscription model with government support (to a range of broadcasters) for news and current affairs output.
9. PR for local government - I generally prefer FPTP, but I can see the merits of PR at the local level.
10. Free us from COVID restrictions - Not sure about this, where I think all politicians have failed is in terms of a lack of strategic thinking. It's all been about the next few weeks. Where the Lib Dems have an opportunity is to embrace the new normal in terms of home working.
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
I think you are being rather unfair with your first sentence. People are interested in more than headlines - things can, overall, be very good indeed and justifying headlines whilst problems in specific areas can still exist.
Finding a few things/areas with problems, as will inevitably exist in anything complex, in order to trash what is essentially a good idea/policy is precisely what politicians do all the time, when what can be done is you acknowledge both the great thing and the issues that might still exist.
'The truth' is more than just the headline, but the headline is still true.
@Philip_Thompson Delurking for a moment to say I had Covid in April last year and the hot scratchy chest thing was what stood out...for me it was more like a hot buzzing, combined with tightness that came and went. Fever stayed mild the whole time, no cough at all, lost taste and smell very temporarily. Shortness of breath came later (that was horrible). Very tired throughout. Was hard to be properly believed by NHS 111 back then without the 'classic' symptoms (until the loss of smell and taste made them listen a bit better). Good to hear you've booked a test and best of luck.
If you do test positive, and feel rotten enough to think you might need it, consider getting a pulse oximeter, though the NHS might give you one these days - worth asking. I would have found it useful in the days 7-10 phase.
PS. This site has been at its very best over the coronavirus outbreak, better than even the mainstream press and broadsheet papers. Appreciate all the stats, collated news and considered thoughts! ( @Andy_Cooke@MaxPB@Malmesbury to name a few) `
I'm just a random AI rotating through the solution space....
On a serious note (shout out to Foxy for his advice from last year) -
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It happens that this is a technology that I know a great deal about. And I'm not as worried as some of you here about veracity. It is entirely possible to build verification technology into cameras and webcams, such that the recipient can tell that the content has not been faked (and, optionally, who originated the image or video). I think this will make reliable photo and video journalism possible again, but there may be an intermediate period where faking is easy and verification is not widespread.
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
As for the technology, watch this space!
--AS
You don’t think a bad actor might make cameras that don’t have that built-in tech? Like, say, China?!
I might sound a bit afeared, but remember the famous saying
‘Fear is a species of excitement’
So true. I’m really just excited.
Which famous philosopher said that?
No one. It’s a quote invented from scratch by an AI computer
No, because everyone would know that the photo or video it produced was unverified. This isn't like DRM for music (that completely failed for the reason you suggest) but an opt-in for those wishing to produce photographs that they can claim are genuine.
So then it would be: photo taken with a Nikon camera and verification intact = genuine, photo taken with a Sinocam = don't trust, especially if Sinocam have been found to produce fake photos in the past.
--AS
That sounds utopianly optimistic to me, however this is your field, so you may be right. Let’s hope so
However, it occurs to me that it’s more likely you are a deepfake commenter, a bot generated by a Chinese computer, which has sent you on here to calm us down with phoney good news, so we don’t actually take steps to stop AI taking over.
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
Aren't you cherrypicking the numbers there, with the best and worst case? Overall the numbers look pretty uniform, except for London. That's not surprising given the reluctance of some.
Did you try requesting an appointment yourself via the website?
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
It is being addressed - but due to various sensitivities, it is being addressed in a non-shouty way...
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
Sounds about right. Devon's population is presumably much older than Newham's, and that's before allowing for differential takeup rates.
I don't think anyone was expecting the rollout to proceed exactly uniformly across the whole country? Would have been quite some trick if it had. As it stands, we aren't lifting any real restrictions until we're a lot further along, so I think this is a fuss about nothing.
I visit Scotland A LOT (probably more than most English PBers) and I have close friends and family living there. I simply don’t recognise this portrait. Scotland is not a ‘catastrophic disaster’. Yes it has problems but so does every country on earth, it is also prosperous and peaceful. Scotland is not a tartan Venezuela. It is bizarre that a Nat should make this surreal argument, but I suppose you have to, for the cause
Only a few posts ago you said it was a sh1thole, raining all the time, people all dying from drugs etc etc , make up your mind.
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It happens that this is a technology that I know a great deal about. And I'm not as worried as some of you here about veracity. It is entirely possible to build verification technology into cameras and webcams, such that the recipient can tell that the content has not been faked (and, optionally, who originated the image or video). I think this will make reliable photo and video journalism possible again, but there may be an intermediate period where faking is easy and verification is not widespread.
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
As for the technology, watch this space!
--AS
You don’t think a bad actor might make cameras that don’t have that built-in tech? Like, say, China?!
I might sound a bit afeared, but remember the famous saying
‘Fear is a species of excitement’
So true. I’m really just excited.
Which famous philosopher said that?
No one. It’s a quote invented from scratch by an AI computer
No, because everyone would know that the photo or video it produced was unverified. This isn't like DRM for music (that completely failed for the reason you suggest) but an opt-in for those wishing to produce photographs that they can claim are genuine.
So then it would be: photo taken with a Nikon camera and verification intact = genuine, photo taken with a Sinocam = don't trust, especially if Sinocam have been found to produce fake photos in the past.
--AS
That sounds utopianly optimistic to me, however this is your field, so you may be right. Let’s hope so
However, it occurs to me that it’s more likely you are a deepfake commenter, a bot generated by a Chinese computer, which has sent you on here to calm us down with phoney good news, so we don’t actually take steps to stop AI taking over.
I know your game.
Yes, this is always something to be wary of. Are you sure that *any* of the commenters on PB are humans, or is it all a playground designed to lure you away from the vital contributions you make to Western art?
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It happens that this is a technology that I know a great deal about. And I'm not as worried as some of you here about veracity. It is entirely possible to build verification technology into cameras and webcams, such that the recipient can tell that the content has not been faked (and, optionally, who originated the image or video). I think this will make reliable photo and video journalism possible again, but there may be an intermediate period where faking is easy and verification is not widespread.
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
As for the technology, watch this space!
--AS
You don’t think a bad actor might make cameras that don’t have that built-in tech? Like, say, China?!
I might sound a bit afeared, but remember the famous saying
‘Fear is a species of excitement’
So true. I’m really just excited.
Which famous philosopher said that?
No one. It’s a quote invented from scratch by an AI computer
No, because everyone would know that the photo or video it produced was unverified. This isn't like DRM for music (that completely failed for the reason you suggest) but an opt-in for those wishing to produce photographs that they can claim are genuine.
So then it would be: photo taken with a Nikon camera and verification intact = genuine, photo taken with a Sinocam = don't trust, especially if Sinocam have been found to produce fake photos in the past.
--AS
That sounds utopianly optimistic to me, however this is your field, so you may be right. Let’s hope so
However, it occurs to me that it’s more likely you are a deepfake commenter, a bot generated by a Chinese computer, which has sent you on here to calm us down with phoney good news, so we don’t actually take steps to stop AI taking over.
I know your game.
On the other hand, who do we know on PB who has to have a reboot and software upgrade every now and then?
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It’s unbannable. It’s out there now. You can’t reverse scientific progress, even if it is dangerous, just as you couldn’t uninvent The Bomb, tho many wanted to
It is mightily scary. And yes it is coming at us fast
OpenAI initially tried this with their GPT idea, but soon realized it just wasn't possible.
Is that meant to be consoling? It isn’t. Look at this. A computer generated story which is entirely convincing, mildly witty, and wholly frightening. Than god I knap naughty flints and I’m not anything artier. Human creativity is doomed. BECAUSE THE MACHINES WILL ONLY GET BETTER
Sadly I think the Lib Dems are near the end of their natural life, sad because a two-party system is likely to lead to an incorrect consensus a lot of the time. But the other parties were able to copy the tactics that made the Lib Dems locally successful, so now you have an incredibly powerful PM's office and hundreds of MPs as its local reps running clinics and distributing newsletters.
If the Lib Dems have made the other parties work better locally, that's all to the good. When I cut my teeth as an activist in the 80s and 90s, we ran rings round the local Conservatives. We could leaflet an area in a day or two and we knew it took the Tories a month.
Political campaigning is different now with the advent of social media.
I do agree the LD Party I joined and knew perished in the fires of the Coalition. Had there been no EU Referendum I suspect the rebuilding process would be further advanced - conversely, it's an interesting counterfactual to consider where the parties would be now if REMAIN had won 52-48.
The EU Referendum and what followed from that was a dead-end and the Party is now back to where it was in 2015 (or 1970) in terms of having to work out a new messaging from the ground up. @Gardenwalker's policy programme has little to which I object - I must confess I share some qualms about UBI - and there's a lot more about reforming local Government we could add but it's a good start.
The important thing for the Party is to have a USP which distinguishes it from the Conservative and Labour parties. It's the thing which, when you ask people what the LDs stand for, they'll say "the LDs support XXXX, the others don't".
From a purely values-free perspective, like that of an alien political scientist landing on Earth, Lib Dem is just a label for the opposition to the Conservative Party in a few dozen seats. That wasn't true as late as 2017 when they were genuinely contending with Labour in several areas. So the USP would be a great contribution to public life, but at the moment it is not even there. Even if Labour get replaced as the main label for anti-Conservative politics, it is easier to imagine it being done by a fusionist Johnson-Corbyn style populist party. Not a gap Lib Dem supporters would like to fill I think. So a way to survival is a struggle to see.
@Philip_Thompson Delurking for a moment to say I had Covid in April last year and the hot scratchy chest thing was what stood out...for me it was more like a hot buzzing, combined with tightness that came and went. Fever stayed mild the whole time, no cough at all, lost taste and smell very temporarily. Shortness of breath came later (that was horrible). Very tired throughout. Was hard to be properly believed by NHS 111 back then without the 'classic' symptoms (until the loss of smell and taste made them listen a bit better). Good to hear you've booked a test and best of luck.
If you do test positive, and feel rotten enough to think you might need it, consider getting a pulse oximeter, though the NHS might give you one these days - worth asking. I would have found it useful in the days 7-10 phase.
PS. This site has been at its very best over the coronavirus outbreak, better than even the mainstream press and broadsheet papers. Appreciate all the stats, collated news and considered thoughts! ( @Andy_Cooke@MaxPB@Malmesbury to name a few) `
Thank you for the advice. Interesting to know you got the scratchy sensation too.
I've heard a few people mention the pulse oximeter, if I test positive I do think that sounds worth getting. Will wait for the results. Thanks for the tip.
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It happens that this is a technology that I know a great deal about. And I'm not as worried as some of you here about veracity. It is entirely possible to build verification technology into cameras and webcams, such that the recipient can tell that the content has not been faked (and, optionally, who originated the image or video). I think this will make reliable photo and video journalism possible again, but there may be an intermediate period where faking is easy and verification is not widespread.
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
As for the technology, watch this space!
--AS
You don’t think a bad actor might make cameras that don’t have that built-in tech? Like, say, China?!
I might sound a bit afeared, but remember the famous saying
‘Fear is a species of excitement’
So true. I’m really just excited.
Which famous philosopher said that?
No one. It’s a quote invented from scratch by an AI computer
No, because everyone would know that the photo or video it produced was unverified. This isn't like DRM for music (that completely failed for the reason you suggest) but an opt-in for those wishing to produce photographs that they can claim are genuine.
So then it would be: photo taken with a Nikon camera and verification intact = genuine, photo taken with a Sinocam = don't trust, especially if Sinocam have been found to produce fake photos in the past.
--AS
That sounds utopianly optimistic to me, however this is your field, so you may be right. Let’s hope so
However, it occurs to me that it’s more likely you are a deepfake commenter, a bot generated by a Chinese computer, which has sent you on here to calm us down with phoney good news, so we don’t actually take steps to stop AI taking over.
I know your game.
On the other hand, who do we know on PB who has to have a reboot and software upgrade every now and then?
I visit Scotland A LOT (probably more than most English PBers) and I have close friends and family living there. I simply don’t recognise this portrait. Scotland is not a ‘catastrophic disaster’. Yes it has problems but so does every country on earth, it is also prosperous and peaceful. Scotland is not a tartan Venezuela. It is bizarre that a Nat should make this surreal argument, but I suppose you have to, for the cause
Only a few posts ago you said it was a sh1thole, raining all the time, people all dying from drugs etc etc , make up your mind.
Thanks for the leader Gardenwalker. As a party member I receive regular emails from the leader and other party figures. Since the last election I cannot remember any of your suggestions been mentioned, Ed Davey seems entirely fixated on the plight of carers ( perhaps understandable given his background but not I think cutting edge policy). Layla Moran has moved from education where I think she had some interesting things to say to foreign affairs where she has not. Virtually everyone else is concentrating on holding their seats or winning local elections in their patch. There is a serious debate going on within the party about future policies but lack of personal contact is hampering the process. If the pandemic is under control by the autumn the Federal Conference should be used as a radical re-launch.
6) difficult with the exception lib dem leader and ex deputy pm taking money from facebook
I visit Scotland A LOT (probably more than most English PBers) and I have close friends and family living there. I simply don’t recognise this portrait. Scotland is not a ‘catastrophic disaster’. Yes it has problems but so does every country on earth, it is also prosperous and peaceful. Scotland is not a tartan Venezuela. It is bizarre that a Nat should make this surreal argument, but I suppose you have to, for the cause
Only a few posts ago you said it was a sh1thole, raining all the time, people all dying from drugs etc etc , make up your mind.
Thanks for the leader Gardenwalker. As a party member I receive regular emails from the leader and other party figures. Since the last election I cannot remember any of your suggestions been mentioned, Ed Davey seems entirely fixated on the plight of carers ( perhaps understandable given his background but not I think cutting edge policy). Layla Moran has moved from education where I think she had some interesting things to say to foreign affairs where she has not. Virtually everyone else is concentrating on holding their seats or winning local elections in their patch. There is a serious debate going on within the party about future policies but lack of personal contact is hampering the process. If the pandemic is under control by the autumn the Federal Conference should be used as a radical re-launch.
6) difficult with the exception lib dem leader and ex deputy pm taking money from facebook
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It’s unbannable. It’s out there now. You can’t reverse scientific progress, even if it is dangerous, just as you couldn’t uninvent The Bomb, tho many wanted to
It is mightily scary. And yes it is coming at us fast
OpenAI initially tried this with their GPT idea, but soon realized it just wasn't possible.
Is that meant to be consoling? It isn’t. Look at this. A computer generated story which is entirely convincing, mildly witty, and wholly frightening. Than god I knap naughty flints and I’m not anything artier. Human creativity is doomed. BECAUSE THE MACHINES WILL ONLY GET BETTER
It occurs to me that computers passed the Turing test some time ago. AI, by that definition, is here already
Although Deep Fakes were widely predicted to be rampant during the US election. As it was they barely featured. Humans will adapt.
Don't forget LeadricT is sequentially petrified of everything.
I’m right tho. This technology is bloody scary and it’s nearly good enough to start freaking everyone out, in multiple ways. Give it a few years, maybe less
I remember when the Pb Luddites loftily reassured everyone that machine translation would always be a bit rubbish and would never replace humans
It was amazing but still a pastiche. If it could produce something original, even if technically poor, that would be more spooky. For example, if you have Trainspotting to hand and on the server, plus a digital OED, plus a big computer and a very powerful, complex algorithm, you could maybe auto generate a piece called "Lockdown through the eyes of Irvine Welsh" and it could be a good read and look quite authentic. But it couldn't do Trainspotting to start with. For that you needed Irvine Welsh.
@Philip_Thompson Delurking for a moment to say I had Covid in April last year and the hot scratchy chest thing was what stood out...for me it was more like a hot buzzing, combined with tightness that came and went. Fever stayed mild the whole time, no cough at all, lost taste and smell very temporarily. Shortness of breath came later (that was horrible). Very tired throughout. Was hard to be properly believed by NHS 111 back then without the 'classic' symptoms (until the loss of smell and taste made them listen a bit better). Good to hear you've booked a test and best of luck.
If you do test positive, and feel rotten enough to think you might need it, consider getting a pulse oximeter, though the NHS might give you one these days - worth asking. I would have found it useful in the days 7-10 phase.
PS. This site has been at its very best over the coronavirus outbreak, better than even the mainstream press and broadsheet papers. Appreciate all the stats, collated news and considered thoughts! ( @Andy_Cooke@MaxPB@Malmesbury to name a few) `
Thank you for the advice. Interesting to know you got the scratchy sensation too.
I've heard a few people mention the pulse oximeter, if I test positive I do think that sounds worth getting. Will wait for the results. Thanks for the tip.
I would get the whole list of items that Foxy recommended. I think they make a good household first aid kit...
A very good piece Gardenwalker. A couple of tweeks to squeeze out the last few vestiges of Torydom (like getting rid of the TV license) and it would get my vote.
A very interesting piece, Mr Gardenwalker. Several of our PB posters have admired it, and said if only.....
But how far is it really from existing Lib Dem policy? I would have thought very close.....
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It’s unbannable. It’s out there now. You can’t reverse scientific progress, even if it is dangerous, just as you couldn’t uninvent The Bomb, tho many wanted to
It is mightily scary. And yes it is coming at us fast
OpenAI initially tried this with their GPT idea, but soon realized it just wasn't possible.
Is that meant to be consoling? It isn’t. Look at this. A computer generated story which is entirely convincing, mildly witty, and wholly frightening. Than god I knap naughty flints and I’m not anything artier. Human creativity is doomed. BECAUSE THE MACHINES WILL ONLY GET BETTER
It occurs to me that computers passed the Turing test some time ago. AI, by that definition, is here already
Although Deep Fakes were widely predicted to be rampant during the US election. As it was they barely featured. Humans will adapt.
Don't forget LeadricT is sequentially petrified of everything.
I’m right tho. This technology is bloody scary and it’s nearly good enough to start freaking everyone out, in multiple ways. Give it a few years, maybe less
I remember when the Pb Luddites loftily reassured everyone that machine translation would always be a bit rubbish and would never replace humans
It was amazing but still a pastiche. If it could produce something original, even if technically poor, that would be more spooky. For example, if you have Trainspotting to hand and on the server, plus a digital OED, plus a big computer and a very powerful, complex algorithm, you could maybe auto generate a piece called "Lockdown through the eyes of Irvine Welsh" and it could be a good read and look quite authentic. But it couldn't do Trainspotting to start with. For that you needed Irvine Welsh.
Yes they have. They mysteriously passed by uncommented on by some of our most fervent poll watchers. My view. This, Scotland and Westminster polls are all part of a worldwide incumbency bonus. As bored, frustrated and traumatised populations desperately hope that their governments are competent.
Put it this way, if Drakeford actually got that figure at the Senedd elections, then he would have matched Labour's best ever election performance under Rhodri Morgan at the very height of his popularity.
Drakeford will have easily done better than Carwyn Jones last time (31.5 %). Labour would have an absolute majority in the Senedd.
It is difficult to believe that the poll is an accurate predictor of what will happen in the May elections.
If it is, let's hope Big G can be restrained from doing a one man naked protest on the steps of the Senedd.
@Philip_Thompson Delurking for a moment to say I had Covid in April last year and the hot scratchy chest thing was what stood out...for me it was more like a hot buzzing, combined with tightness that came and went. Fever stayed mild the whole time, no cough at all, lost taste and smell very temporarily. Shortness of breath came later (that was horrible). Very tired throughout. Was hard to be properly believed by NHS 111 back then without the 'classic' symptoms (until the loss of smell and taste made them listen a bit better). Good to hear you've booked a test and best of luck.
If you do test positive, and feel rotten enough to think you might need it, consider getting a pulse oximeter, though the NHS might give you one these days - worth asking. I would have found it useful in the days 7-10 phase.
PS. This site has been at its very best over the coronavirus outbreak, better than even the mainstream press and broadsheet papers. Appreciate all the stats, collated news and considered thoughts! ( @Andy_Cooke@MaxPB@Malmesbury to name a few) `
I'm just a random AI rotating through the solution space....
On a serious note (shout out to Foxy for his advice from last year) -
these are what I got, and advised several friends to get. Some, who got COVID found them invaluable....
I am not sure how useful the peak flow meter is now that we know more of covid. I think it useful for airways disease like asthma, but the lung function problems of covid pneumonitis perhaps less so.
Pulse oximeter is essential though. "Happy hypoxia" with sats in the 60s or 70s, but no distress is pretty characteristic.
Just to deal with the unanswered question, prof Spector’s four additional early symptoms were headache, diarrhoea, fatigue and sore throat. Nothing about funny pains in the chest, although as I recall that is already asked about within the App.
Breaking news! Someone with an actual sense of humour has been allowed to write for the Observer...
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1365914137897803776 For those of us who like to talk Britain down, all this good news is hard to take. The vaccination figures are shocking. Nearly 20 million first doses administered. A forward-thinking procurement plan. The leading large nation, far ahead of the US and, more gallingly for us frothing Remoaners, miles ahead of Europe. Nothing could be more depressing for the honest self-loathing liberal Brit. You know the type. Recycle assiduously but fly once a fortnight.
The bitterest pill is that we’re beating Germany. Germany, the nation self-loathing Brits revere more than any other. Germany, which welcomes every immigrant, has sensible governments, and has only ever craved peaceful European integration.
It transpires that several of the dozen or so vaccines Germany thought to order have been ensnared in red tape. Surely the pandemic can’t have exposed shortcomings in having a pan-continental uber-bureaucracy?
Wasn’t all that technik meant to lead to a bit of vorsprung? The front page of Bild, one of Germany’s main tabloids, last Wednesday read “Britain, We Envy You”. While Eeyorish Mrs Merkel warns of yet another lockdown, with less than 10% of her population vaccinated, our flaxen-haired prime minister leads his nation towards a summer of Weimar excess. Mutti, how could you forsake your fans in Islington like this?
tripe but who wrote it? The letters under the article are much funnier
These people need to go to jail. For long periods of time.
Maybe they'll get the maximum ten years in prison?
The 10 years is for forgery of the forms. The guy that didn’t fill out his forms correctly is at risk but I don’t think he’ll get 10 years. Anyway, good this was announced today as a counterweight to the generally positive numbers.
I fear what will happen when we make the same mistake as last year and everybody is allowed to go a Shagaful on their holidays from June onwards.
And if the government don't allow foreign summer holidays after giving all the signals they will be allowed, the public are going to be pissed, like really really pissed.
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It happens that this is a technology that I know a great deal about. And I'm not as worried as some of you here about veracity. It is entirely possible to build verification technology into cameras and webcams, such that the recipient can tell that the content has not been faked (and, optionally, who originated the image or video). I think this will make reliable photo and video journalism possible again, but there may be an intermediate period where faking is easy and verification is not widespread.
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
As for the technology, watch this space!
--AS
You don’t think a bad actor might make cameras that don’t have that built-in tech? Like, say, China?!
I might sound a bit afeared, but remember the famous saying
‘Fear is a species of excitement’
So true. I’m really just excited.
Which famous philosopher said that?
No one. It’s a quote invented from scratch by an AI computer
No, because everyone would know that the photo or video it produced was unverified. This isn't like DRM for music (that completely failed for the reason you suggest) but an opt-in for those wishing to produce photographs that they can claim are genuine.
So then it would be: photo taken with a Nikon camera and verification intact = genuine, photo taken with a Sinocam = don't trust, especially if Sinocam have been found to produce fake photos in the past.
--AS
That sounds utopianly optimistic to me, however this is your field, so you may be right. Let’s hope so
However, it occurs to me that it’s more likely you are a deepfake commenter, a bot generated by a Chinese computer, which has sent you on here to calm us down with phoney good news, so we don’t actually take steps to stop AI taking over.
I know your game.
Yes, this is always something to be wary of. Are you sure that *any* of the commenters on PB are humans, or is it all a playground designed to lure you away from the vital contributions you make to Western art?
--AS
Thinking about your verification system, the problem, for me, is this: you can’t get rid of doubt by replacing it with trust.
Once the doubt is sown, it’s very difficult to get it out of the soil.
I’m quite proud of that doubt/trust line, by the way. I just wish it was me that had invented it, not a computer
Sadly I think the Lib Dems are near the end of their natural life, sad because a two-party system is likely to lead to an incorrect consensus a lot of the time. But the other parties were able to copy the tactics that made the Lib Dems locally successful, so now you have an incredibly powerful PM's office and hundreds of MPs as its local reps running clinics and distributing newsletters.
I've been telling you for a while that most Tory MPs in marginals/Red Wall seats are running their local presence as if they were LibDems. If they lose their seats, it won't be for lack of effort.
Sure, but taking the longer view, I'd imagine that the share of time MPs spend in constituencies is a lot higher now than in 1992, and that there are more clinics, and so on. So MPs may be younger than in the past, but I would imagine it is now a lifestyle less compatible with raising young kids.
The time MPs have spent on Covid constituency matters this past year is out of all recognition from their predecessors. Assume they have done a half decent job, that is going to count as a decent plus towards incumbency.
Has anyone proposed how free universities are to be paid for? I'd suggest that a UBI would go some way towards funding students as far as living costs are concerned, so no need for debt to cover those. However do we really need as many young people going to university? And if it's such a good thing, wouldn't it be better to make it compulsory so that everybody effectively goes to university?
OTOH making it compulsory might reduce the numbers who want to go!
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
Sounds about right. Devon's population is presumably much older than Newham's, and that's before allowing for differential takeup rates.
I don't think anyone was expecting the rollout to proceed exactly uniformly across the whole country? Would have been quite some trick if it had. As it stands, we aren't lifting any real restrictions until we're a lot further along, so I think this is a fuss about nothing.
Looking at the 16-64 age group:
Devon has 710,000 people of which 133,000 have received a first vaccination - 18.7%
Newham has 248,000 people of which 24,500 have received a first vaccination - 9.9%
The evidence is clear - for whatever reason, Newham is vaccinating half the numbers (proportionately) of Devon and no one seems able to explain why.
@Philip_Thompson Delurking for a moment to say I had Covid in April last year and the hot scratchy chest thing was what stood out...for me it was more like a hot buzzing, combined with tightness that came and went. Fever stayed mild the whole time, no cough at all, lost taste and smell very temporarily. Shortness of breath came later (that was horrible). Very tired throughout. Was hard to be properly believed by NHS 111 back then without the 'classic' symptoms (until the loss of smell and taste made them listen a bit better). Good to hear you've booked a test and best of luck.
If you do test positive, and feel rotten enough to think you might need it, consider getting a pulse oximeter, though the NHS might give you one these days - worth asking. I would have found it useful in the days 7-10 phase.
PS. This site has been at its very best over the coronavirus outbreak, better than even the mainstream press and broadsheet papers. Appreciate all the stats, collated news and considered thoughts! ( @Andy_Cooke@MaxPB@Malmesbury to name a few) `
I'm just a random AI rotating through the solution space....
On a serious note (shout out to Foxy for his advice from last year) -
these are what I got, and advised several friends to get. Some, who got COVID found them invaluable....
I am not sure how useful the peak flow meter is now that we know more of covid. I think it useful for airways disease like asthma, but the lung function problems of covid pneumonitis perhaps less so.
Pulse oximeter is essential though. "Happy hypoxia" with sats in the 60s or 70s, but no distress is pretty characteristic.
A couple of friends found the oximeter very helpful.
The blood pressure measuring device got some good use in my household, because my mother-in-law was on medication that needed blood pressure checks for the repeats. So we had a video call with the doctor, and did the check on camera so that she (the doctor) was happy with my technique...
Sadly I think the Lib Dems are near the end of their natural life, sad because a two-party system is likely to lead to an incorrect consensus a lot of the time. But the other parties were able to copy the tactics that made the Lib Dems locally successful, so now you have an incredibly powerful PM's office and hundreds of MPs as its local reps running clinics and distributing newsletters.
I've been telling you for a while that most Tory MPs in marginals/Red Wall seats are running their local presence as if they were LibDems. If they lose their seats, it won't be for lack of effort.
I thought that was me
Does anyone have any numbers of Facebook Likes by MP?
My 1 year red wall Tory MP has just under 15,000. He had at least half of those when he was a Labour Councillor.
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It happens that this is a technology that I know a great deal about. And I'm not as worried as some of you here about veracity. It is entirely possible to build verification technology into cameras and webcams, such that the recipient can tell that the content has not been faked (and, optionally, who originated the image or video). I think this will make reliable photo and video journalism possible again, but there may be an intermediate period where faking is easy and verification is not widespread.
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
As for the technology, watch this space!
--AS
You don’t think a bad actor might make cameras that don’t have that built-in tech? Like, say, China?!
I might sound a bit afeared, but remember the famous saying
‘Fear is a species of excitement’
So true. I’m really just excited.
Which famous philosopher said that?
No one. It’s a quote invented from scratch by an AI computer
No, because everyone would know that the photo or video it produced was unverified. This isn't like DRM for music (that completely failed for the reason you suggest) but an opt-in for those wishing to produce photographs that they can claim are genuine.
So then it would be: photo taken with a Nikon camera and verification intact = genuine, photo taken with a Sinocam = don't trust, especially if Sinocam have been found to produce fake photos in the past.
--AS
That sounds utopianly optimistic to me, however this is your field, so you may be right. Let’s hope so
However, it occurs to me that it’s more likely you are a deepfake commenter, a bot generated by a Chinese computer, which has sent you on here to calm us down with phoney good news, so we don’t actually take steps to stop AI taking over.
I know your game.
It is worth remembering that the same technology that allows Deep Fakes to be made, also allows them to be identified. What seems very real to a human, will seem very fake to a neural net trained on millions of videos of deep fakes.
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
Sounds about right. Devon's population is presumably much older than Newham's, and that's before allowing for differential takeup rates.
I don't think anyone was expecting the rollout to proceed exactly uniformly across the whole country? Would have been quite some trick if it had. As it stands, we aren't lifting any real restrictions until we're a lot further along, so I think this is a fuss about nothing.
Looking at the 16-64 age group:
Devon has 710,000 people of which 133,000 have received a first vaccination - 18.7%
Newham has 248,000 people of which 24,500 have received a first vaccination - 9.9%
The evidence is clear - for whatever reason, Newham is vaccinating half the numbers (proportionately) of Devon and no one seems able to explain why.
Deepfakes will also, entirely, fuck up the legal system. Video evidence will always be challenged, it will become virtually useless (photo evidence too, of course). Witnesses or complainants will no longer be able to give evidence via a screen?
That’s just the law
Why pay an actor £10m when you can deepfake Laurence Olivier for ten quid?
Movie making suddenly got a hundred times cheaper
The more you go down this rabbit hole, the darker yet deeper it gets
Why bother with humans at all? Surely this technology makes electronic replacements easier and cheaper. No unions, no toilet breaks, no repeat fees, whatever body shape is thought desirable...I think I will stop there.
Agree, it sounds scaremongery, but I think we should be seriously worried about this. There was a Sam Harris podcast with Nina Schick which explored the possible issues in terrifying detail. Once we're over Covid, I'd put some money on this being the next societal upheaval to deal with.
I'd suggest banning the technology lock stock and barrel (a bit like the US export restrictions for PGP cryptography back in the day), if it wasn't completely unworkable in this day and age.
It’s unbannable. It’s out there now. You can’t reverse scientific progress, even if it is dangerous, just as you couldn’t uninvent The Bomb, tho many wanted to
It is mightily scary. And yes it is coming at us fast
OpenAI initially tried this with their GPT idea, but soon realized it just wasn't possible.
Is that meant to be consoling? It isn’t. Look at this. A computer generated story which is entirely convincing, mildly witty, and wholly frightening. Than god I knap naughty flints and I’m not anything artier. Human creativity is doomed. BECAUSE THE MACHINES WILL ONLY GET BETTER
It occurs to me that computers passed the Turing test some time ago. AI, by that definition, is here already
Although Deep Fakes were widely predicted to be rampant during the US election. As it was they barely featured. Humans will adapt.
Don't forget LeadricT is sequentially petrified of everything.
I’m right tho. This technology is bloody scary and it’s nearly good enough to start freaking everyone out, in multiple ways. Give it a few years, maybe less
I remember when the Pb Luddites loftily reassured everyone that machine translation would always be a bit rubbish and would never replace humans
It was amazing but still a pastiche. If it could produce something original, even if technically poor, that would be more spooky. For example, if you have Trainspotting to hand and on the server, plus a digital OED, plus a big computer and a very powerful, complex algorithm, you could maybe auto generate a piece called "Lockdown through the eyes of Irvine Welsh" and it could be a good read and look quite authentic. But it couldn't do Trainspotting to start with. For that you needed Irvine Welsh.
High quality JKJ makes you laugh out loud. Uncle Podger and the painting; opening the pineapple tin; the youthful experiments with boats; having every illness except housemaid's knee; George sleeping at the bank. And has quotable phrases: "I like work, it fascinates me.... I can sit and watch it for hours".
These examples don't raise any feeling or sense of the memorable at all. And JKJ is a simple soul and a very undeep writer, who almost accidentally wrote a couple of masterpieces. There is a long way to go before the automata can do Henry James, Hardy or Austen.
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
Sounds about right. Devon's population is presumably much older than Newham's, and that's before allowing for differential takeup rates.
I don't think anyone was expecting the rollout to proceed exactly uniformly across the whole country? Would have been quite some trick if it had. As it stands, we aren't lifting any real restrictions until we're a lot further along, so I think this is a fuss about nothing.
Looking at the 16-64 age group:
Devon has 710,000 people of which 133,000 have received a first vaccination - 18.7%
Newham has 248,000 people of which 24,500 have received a first vaccination - 9.9%
The evidence is clear - for whatever reason, Newham is vaccinating half the numbers (proportionately) of Devon and no one seems able to explain why.
No one seems able to explain why? The low take up amongst minority groups has been discussed for weeks.
I fear what will happen when we make the same mistake as last year and everybody is allowed to go a Shagaful on their holidays from June onwards.
And if the government don't allow foreign summer holidays after giving all the signals they will be allowed, the public are going to be pissed, like really really pissed.
Indeed.
I've written off foreign travel until 2023 at the earliest for me, I really don't want to be trapped overseas if a new variant develops.
One thing I'm definitely keeping is my no deal stockpile which became very useful during a pandemic.
My father's doomsday prepper hoarding will be useful during the zombie apocalypse or whatever befalls us all next.
@Philip_Thompson Delurking for a moment to say I had Covid in April last year and the hot scratchy chest thing was what stood out...for me it was more like a hot buzzing, combined with tightness that came and went. Fever stayed mild the whole time, no cough at all, lost taste and smell very temporarily. Shortness of breath came later (that was horrible). Very tired throughout. Was hard to be properly believed by NHS 111 back then without the 'classic' symptoms (until the loss of smell and taste made them listen a bit better). Good to hear you've booked a test and best of luck.
If you do test positive, and feel rotten enough to think you might need it, consider getting a pulse oximeter, though the NHS might give you one these days - worth asking. I would have found it useful in the days 7-10 phase.
PS. This site has been at its very best over the coronavirus outbreak, better than even the mainstream press and broadsheet papers. Appreciate all the stats, collated news and considered thoughts! ( @Andy_Cooke@MaxPB@Malmesbury to name a few) `
I'm just a random AI rotating through the solution space....
On a serious note (shout out to Foxy for his advice from last year) -
these are what I got, and advised several friends to get. Some, who got COVID found them invaluable....
I am not sure how useful the peak flow meter is now that we know more of covid. I think it useful for airways disease like asthma, but the lung function problems of covid pneumonitis perhaps less so.
Pulse oximeter is essential though. "Happy hypoxia" with sats in the 60s or 70s, but no distress is pretty characteristic.
In my experience Peak Flow meter is good in warning you when you are vulnerable to a sudden further deterioration causing a really serious situation.
If it goes say 30% below your normal value due to a cold or cough or whatever, then your situation is fragile to any further problems as your resilience margin may have gone.
Specially useful for people with eg mild asthma. I have that and only have a problem once every several years when eg particular sorts of pollen or solvents that trigger me.
I once went into A&E after being badly affected by inkjet fumes, and when they made me blow into the Peak Flow meter I had a respiratory arrest.
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
Sounds about right. Devon's population is presumably much older than Newham's, and that's before allowing for differential takeup rates.
I don't think anyone was expecting the rollout to proceed exactly uniformly across the whole country? Would have been quite some trick if it had. As it stands, we aren't lifting any real restrictions until we're a lot further along, so I think this is a fuss about nothing.
Looking at the 16-64 age group:
Devon has 710,000 people of which 133,000 have received a first vaccination - 18.7%
Newham has 248,000 people of which 24,500 have received a first vaccination - 9.9%
The evidence is clear - for whatever reason, Newham is vaccinating half the numbers (proportionately) of Devon and no one seems able to explain why.
No one seems able to explain why? The low take up amongst minority groups has been discussed for weeks.
One theory that would make sense is that there's fewer people in certain parts of London than we thought.
There was that analysis that showed several hundred thousand had left London since the plague.
No one is saying it is "new" or "novel", only that it is the first time it has been detected in the UK. Given what happened with the Kent strain I think this is downplaying it quite a bit.
A very good piece Gardenwalker. A couple of tweeks to squeeze out the last few vestiges of Torydom (like getting rid of the TV license) and it would get my vote.
A very interesting piece, Mr Gardenwalker. Several of our PB posters have admired it, and said if only.....
But how far is it really from existing Lib Dem policy? I would have thought very close.....
Thank-you. I’ve been gratified by response from “left” and “right” posters.
As to existing Lib Dem policy, I visited their site during research for their piece and I’m afraid I couldn’t really figure out what they were about at the moment.
Still waiting for my Group 6 vaccine letter. Grump.
Yes but no one is interested in the truth of the vaccination rollout programme. The headline numbers tell some of the story but not all.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
Sounds about right. Devon's population is presumably much older than Newham's, and that's before allowing for differential takeup rates.
I don't think anyone was expecting the rollout to proceed exactly uniformly across the whole country? Would have been quite some trick if it had. As it stands, we aren't lifting any real restrictions until we're a lot further along, so I think this is a fuss about nothing.
Looking at the 16-64 age group:
Devon has 710,000 people of which 133,000 have received a first vaccination - 18.7%
Newham has 248,000 people of which 24,500 have received a first vaccination - 9.9%
The evidence is clear - for whatever reason, Newham is vaccinating half the numbers (proportionately) of Devon and no one seems able to explain why.
No one seems able to explain why? The low take up amongst minority groups has been discussed for weeks.
One theory that would make sense is that there's fewer people in certain parts of London than we thought.
There was that analysis that showed several hundred thousand had left London since the plague.
Isn't it lucky that we're doing a census! I'm glad it's not my problem this time. I still haven't recovered from 2011 and Slough telling us to check their sewage output to see that they actually have 10 million people in their borough.
A very good piece Gardenwalker. A couple of tweeks to squeeze out the last few vestiges of Torydom (like getting rid of the TV license) and it would get my vote.
A very interesting piece, Mr Gardenwalker. Several of our PB posters have admired it, and said if only.....
But how far is it really from existing Lib Dem policy? I would have thought very close.....
Thank-you. I’ve been gratified by response from “left” and “right” posters.
But has it struck a chord with the radical centre?
No one is saying it is "new" or "novel", only that it is the first time it has been detected in the UK. Given what happened with the Kent strain I think this is downplaying it quite a bit.
No one is saying it is "new" or "novel", only that it is the first time it has been detected in the UK. Given what happened with the Kent strain I think this is downplaying it quite a bit.
We didn’t have a huge vaccine rollout at that point.
@Philip_Thompson Delurking for a moment to say I had Covid in April last year and the hot scratchy chest thing was what stood out...for me it was more like a hot buzzing, combined with tightness that came and went. Fever stayed mild the whole time, no cough at all, lost taste and smell very temporarily. Shortness of breath came later (that was horrible). Very tired throughout. Was hard to be properly believed by NHS 111 back then without the 'classic' symptoms (until the loss of smell and taste made them listen a bit better). Good to hear you've booked a test and best of luck.
If you do test positive, and feel rotten enough to think you might need it, consider getting a pulse oximeter, though the NHS might give you one these days - worth asking. I would have found it useful in the days 7-10 phase.
PS. This site has been at its very best over the coronavirus outbreak, better than even the mainstream press and broadsheet papers. Appreciate all the stats, collated news and considered thoughts! ( @Andy_Cooke@MaxPB@Malmesbury to name a few) `
I'm just a random AI rotating through the solution space....
On a serious note (shout out to Foxy for his advice from last year) -
these are what I got, and advised several friends to get. Some, who got COVID found them invaluable....
I am not sure how useful the peak flow meter is now that we know more of covid. I think it useful for airways disease like asthma, but the lung function problems of covid pneumonitis perhaps less so.
Pulse oximeter is essential though. "Happy hypoxia" with sats in the 60s or 70s, but no distress is pretty characteristic.
In my experience Peak Flow meter is good in warning you when you are vulnerable to a sudden further deterioration causing a really serious situation.
If it goes say 30% below your normal value due to a cold or cough or whatever, then your situation is fragile to any further problems as your resilience margin may have gone.
Specially useful for people with eg mild asthma. I have that and only have a problem once every several years when eg particular sorts of pollen or solvents that trigger me.
I once went into A&E after being badly affected by inkjet fumes, and when they made me blow into the Peak Flow meter I had a respiratory arrest.
inkjet fumes - arrrrrgh
The worst I recall was some morons at a communal workshop put polyclay in a furnace and discovered that at 1200c polymers breakdown and you get.... Chlorine gas....
Fuckwits rusted the lathe..... Then I (and some others) spent ages trying to get the ones with the continuous hacking coughs to seek medical treatment.......
Yes they have. They mysteriously passed by uncommented on by some of our most fervent poll watchers. My view. This, Scotland and Westminster polls are all part of a worldwide incumbency bonus. As bored, frustrated and traumatised populations desperately hope that their governments are competent.
Put it this way, if Drakeford actually got that figure at the Senedd elections, then he would have matched Labour's best ever election performance under Rhodri Morgan at the very height of his popularity.
Drakeford will have easily done better than Carwyn Jones last time (31.5 %). Labour would have an absolute majority in the Senedd.
It is difficult to believe that the poll is an accurate predictor of what will happen in the May elections.
If it is, let's hope Big G can be restrained from doing a one man naked protest on the steps of the Senedd.
My favourite ever story about the Senedd was the balloon ban on the premises, and the security guards would confiscate them from nine year olds.
No one is saying it is "new" or "novel", only that it is the first time it has been detected in the UK. Given what happened with the Kent strain I think this is downplaying it quite a bit.
We didn’t have a huge vaccine rollout at that point.
But with lower efficacy?
The tweet is contradictory, saying "We know the vaccines can neutralize this variant, and updated boosters should they be needed are already in development."
If the vaccines are effective, why would boosters be needed? More twitter bollocks.
No one is saying it is "new" or "novel", only that it is the first time it has been detected in the UK. Given what happened with the Kent strain I think this is downplaying it quite a bit.
We didn’t have a huge vaccine rollout at that point.
But with lower efficacy?
The tweet is contradictory, saying "We know the vaccines can neutralize this variant, and updated boosters should they be needed are already in development."
If the vaccines are effective, why would boosters be needed? More twitter bollocks.
Uggghhh.
Stop with the 'step function' thinking.
The vaccines will have some efficacy against any mutation CV19 can throw at us, the only question is how much.
The way I like to think of it is this.
Imagine that you are in a City, and you have an air force.
The virus is a fleet of bombers coming to bomb your city.
Vaccines give you radar, so you can scramble that air force early and get them to knock them out the sky before they reach you.
Now, a mutation *might* make it slightly harder to see the incoming bombers. It might mean that instead of three hours notice, they only get one. Perhaps a few planes will get through and unleash a couple of bombs. But you're highly unlikely to get really sick, because you still have radar and you still get some advance warning.
If you have a booster in the Autumn, you'll get that full three hours (or maybe it'll increase it to five) of notice again, and then there's next to no chance that the bombers get through.
But there's more good news from vaccines. The number of bombers that are sent against you matters too. And the more people that are vaccinated, the fewer bombers will be thrown against you. If only six take off and fly towards your City, then it doesn't matter if you only get one hours notice, because you're not getting the same "dose" of bombers you were previously.
Passed by a table in a small park today on my run. The rule of six (might have been seven) was being utilised early.
The amount of traffic on the roads was incredible. Sunday is usually visiting folks day round here and I’d suggest we are pretty much back to normal. The psychologists were right - people cannot stay in lock down forever. I think aside of the pubs and non essential shops, for many, many people, life is almost back to normal, whatever the government might tell us.
Comments
That doesn't deal with the Holywood question, of course, but I expect the unions to have something to say about that. Indeed there are already rules about using an actor's likeness (at least in the US, after the Back to the Future II incident).
As for the technology, watch this space!
--AS
If you do test positive, and feel rotten enough to think you might need it, consider getting a pulse oximeter, though the NHS might give you one these days - worth asking. I would have found it useful in the days 7-10 phase.
PS. This site has been at its very best over the coronavirus outbreak, better than even the mainstream press and broadsheet papers. Appreciate all the stats, collated news and considered thoughts! ( @Andy_Cooke @MaxPB @Malmesbury to name a few) `
This is really positive news. There's EU countries that would jab their granny for those numbers.....
Political campaigning is different now with the advent of social media.
I do agree the LD Party I joined and knew perished in the fires of the Coalition. Had there been no EU Referendum I suspect the rebuilding process would be further advanced - conversely, it's an interesting counterfactual to consider where the parties would be now if REMAIN had won 52-48.
The EU Referendum and what followed from that was a dead-end and the Party is now back to where it was in 2015 (or 1970) in terms of having to work out a new messaging from the ground up. @Gardenwalker's policy programme has little to which I object - I must confess I share some qualms about UBI - and there's a lot more about reforming local Government we could add but it's a good start.
The important thing for the Party is to have a USP which distinguishes it from the Conservative and Labour parties. It's the thing which, when you ask people what the LDs stand for, they'll say "the LDs support XXXX, the others don't".
https://twitter.com/thejonnyreilly/status/1366070985762422784
https://twitter.com/thejonnyreilly/status/1366071095099617286
I might sound a bit afeared, but remember the famous saying
‘Fear is a species of excitement’
So true. I’m really just excited.
Which famous philosopher said that?
No one. It’s a quote invented from scratch by an AI computer
https://twitter.com/bygpt3/status/1359911175727685632?s=21
https://twitter.com/bygpt3/status/1358985759718395904?s=21
These are of a publishable standard. They are true, and meaningful, even profound. And a machine is making them up
So then it would be: photo taken with a Nikon camera and verification intact = genuine, photo taken with a Sinocam = don't trust, especially if Sinocam have been found to produce fake photos in the past.
--AS
But you’re really good. I never guessed who you really are until today, Dr Bastani-Peters.
1. Scrap fees for tertiary education - yes, though I'm not sure anyone would take the Lib Dems seriously on this subject. And anyway, if fees were scrapped, how would universities be funded? I've seen it suggested on here that the reason why the Lib Dems went along with the £9k fees was that it would gain them support from university staff as it guaranteed their incomes. Didn't work, of course. Personally I'd like to see most of them go under, with most of these kids not going to university. But the genie is out of the bottle, and kids expect to have three years of partying dilligent study before they enter the big bad world.
2. Legalise cannabis - I'm fine with this. I don't have kids myself, but if I did I'd go out of my way to make sure they don't use it. I've seen the damage it can do.
3. Support Free Trade and join EFTA - The referendum was won on ending FoM. Obviously the Lib Dems aren't aiming to win an election, so to a certain extent it doesn't matter. But they need to be ready to make the case for FoM in a way that no remain politicians did in 2016. There are seats like Guildford where the LDs need votes from red wall type voters (we have them down here too).
4. Scrap Council Tax and rplace it with a Land Value Tax - Don't disagree about the inequity of CT. My only concern about any replacement is that needs to raise revenue today and any shortfall needs to be paid for.
5. Protect free speecch and personal privacy - Yes, but don't hold your breath.
6. Stand up to Google, Facebook, and Amazon - Not sure about this. Perhaps more tax should be paid, though I don't know enough about it.
7. Experiment with Universal Basic Income - It may very well be the future, but again it needs to be funded and that's what proponents of it need to grapple with. It's a bit late in the day given the impact of COVID, but my idea was to link the minimum wage to net migration and unemployment. As long migration was high and unemployment was low, the minimum wage should been going up until it started to affect the latter too. But the world has changed somewhat.
8. Scrap the TV license fee - Yes, but your idea sounds like a way of stopping people avoiding the tax by not watching TV! The BBC should move to a subscription model with government support (to a range of broadcasters) for news and current affairs output.
9. PR for local government - I generally prefer FPTP, but I can see the merits of PR at the local level.
10. Free us from COVID restrictions - Not sure about this, where I think all politicians have failed is in terms of a lack of strategic thinking. It's all been about the next few weeks. Where the Lib Dems have an opportunity is to embrace the new normal in terms of home working.
As I mentioned yesterday, Devon has vaccinated about 40% of its 16+ population, Newham has managed 14%, These anomalies are going to cause problems with lifting restrictions unless they are quickly addressed.
Finding a few things/areas with problems, as will inevitably exist in anything complex, in order to trash what is essentially a good idea/policy is precisely what politicians do all the time, when what can be done is you acknowledge both the great thing and the issues that might still exist.
'The truth' is more than just the headline, but the headline is still true.
On a serious note (shout out to Foxy for his advice from last year) -
Blood Pressure Measuring Device - https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00KJ8FB1Q/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Pulse Oximeter - https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B002MEUFKW/ref=ppx_od_dt_b_asin_title_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Thermometer - https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00NVMIO02/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Flow Meter (lung function) - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B002ZGZ5AM/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_XVNTBQJ9N82RNHMPTJ48?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
these are what I got, and advised several friends to get. Some, who got COVID found them invaluable....
Once we can do real time deep fakes, with augmented reality contact lenses (or even better, implants), we can all be dating Margot Robbie if we want.
And no one need ever get old.
However, it occurs to me that it’s more likely you are a deepfake commenter, a bot generated by a Chinese computer, which has sent you on here to calm us down with phoney good news, so we don’t actually take steps to stop AI taking over.
I know your game.
Did you try requesting an appointment yourself via the website?
It is being addressed - but due to various sensitivities, it is being addressed in a non-shouty way...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-56101990
I don't think anyone was expecting the rollout to proceed exactly uniformly across the whole country? Would have been quite some trick if it had. As it stands, we aren't lifting any real restrictions until we're a lot further along, so I think this is a fuss about nothing.
Leon said:
» show previous quotes
I visit Scotland A LOT (probably more than most English PBers) and I have close friends and family living there. I simply don’t recognise this portrait. Scotland is not a ‘catastrophic disaster’. Yes it has problems but so does every country on earth, it is also prosperous and peaceful. Scotland is not a tartan Venezuela. It is bizarre that a Nat should make this surreal argument, but I suppose you have to, for the cause
Only a few posts ago you said it was a sh1thole, raining all the time, people all dying from drugs etc etc , make up your mind.
--AS
I've heard a few people mention the pulse oximeter, if I test positive I do think that sounds worth getting. Will wait for the results. Thanks for the tip.
But how far is it really from existing Lib Dem policy? I would have thought very close.....
Pulse oximeter is essential though. "Happy hypoxia" with sats in the 60s or 70s, but no distress is pretty characteristic.
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/classic-triad-symptoms-misses-positive-covid-19-cases
https://twitter.com/LCI/status/1366079335866761233?s=20
And if the government don't allow foreign summer holidays after giving all the signals they will be allowed, the public are going to be pissed, like really really pissed.
Once the doubt is sown, it’s very difficult to get it out of the soil.
I’m quite proud of that doubt/trust line, by the way. I just wish it was me that had invented it, not a computer
https://twitter.com/bygpt3/status/1293227930441543687?s=21
Has anyone proposed how free universities are to be paid for? I'd suggest that a UBI would go some way towards funding students as far as living costs are concerned, so no need for debt to cover those. However do we really need as many young people going to university? And if it's such a good thing, wouldn't it be better to make it compulsory so that everybody effectively goes to university?
OTOH making it compulsory might reduce the numbers who want to go!
Good evening, everybody.
Devon has 710,000 people of which 133,000 have received a first vaccination - 18.7%
Newham has 248,000 people of which 24,500 have received a first vaccination - 9.9%
The evidence is clear - for whatever reason, Newham is vaccinating half the numbers (proportionately) of Devon and no one seems able to explain why.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1364963342129971202
The blood pressure measuring device got some good use in my household, because my mother-in-law was on medication that needed blood pressure checks for the repeats. So we had a video call with the doctor, and did the check on camera so that she (the doctor) was happy with my technique...
Does anyone have any numbers of Facebook Likes by MP?
My 1 year red wall Tory MP has just under 15,000. He had at least half of those when he was a Labour Councillor.
These examples don't raise any feeling or sense of the memorable at all. And JKJ is a simple soul and a very undeep writer, who almost accidentally wrote a couple of masterpieces. There is a long way to go before the automata can do Henry James, Hardy or Austen.
I've written off foreign travel until 2023 at the earliest for me, I really don't want to be trapped overseas if a new variant develops.
One thing I'm definitely keeping is my no deal stockpile which became very useful during a pandemic.
My father's doomsday prepper hoarding will be useful during the zombie apocalypse or whatever befalls us all next.
If it goes say 30% below your normal value due to a cold or cough or whatever, then your situation is fragile to any further problems as your resilience margin may have gone.
Specially useful for people with eg mild asthma. I have that and only have a problem once every several years when eg particular sorts of pollen or solvents that trigger me.
I once went into A&E after being badly affected by inkjet fumes, and when they made me blow into the Peak Flow meter I had a respiratory arrest.
There was that analysis that showed several hundred thousand had left London since the plague.
https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/1365772300465938432
As to existing Lib Dem policy, I visited their site during research for their piece and I’m afraid I couldn’t really figure out what they were about at the moment.
https://twitter.com/TommasoMarrone/status/1365776633408421894
The worst I recall was some morons at a communal workshop put polyclay in a furnace and discovered that at 1200c polymers breakdown and you get.... Chlorine gas....
Fuckwits rusted the lathe..... Then I (and some others) spent ages trying to get the ones with the continuous hacking coughs to seek medical treatment.......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/betsanpowys/2008/04/feeling_deflated.html
At the time they had balloons floating in the chamber in their video ident.
The tweet is contradictory, saying "We know the vaccines can neutralize this variant, and updated boosters should they be needed are already in development."
If the vaccines are effective, why would boosters be needed? More twitter bollocks.
Weighed myself
*insert blank-faced staring emoji*
Ojrzynski was on the coach at Bramall Lane so I'm guessing that means no Kelleher.
Tories plot Union flag blitz in Scottish towns to stop independence
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19124712.tories-plot-union-flag-blitz-scottish-towns-stop-independence/
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1366088465562140678?s=20
Stop with the 'step function' thinking.
The vaccines will have some efficacy against any mutation CV19 can throw at us, the only question is how much.
The way I like to think of it is this.
Imagine that you are in a City, and you have an air force.
The virus is a fleet of bombers coming to bomb your city.
Vaccines give you radar, so you can scramble that air force early and get them to knock them out the sky before they reach you.
Now, a mutation *might* make it slightly harder to see the incoming bombers. It might mean that instead of three hours notice, they only get one. Perhaps a few planes will get through and unleash a couple of bombs. But you're highly unlikely to get really sick, because you still have radar and you still get some advance warning.
If you have a booster in the Autumn, you'll get that full three hours (or maybe it'll increase it to five) of notice again, and then there's next to no chance that the bombers get through.
But there's more good news from vaccines. The number of bombers that are sent against you matters too. And the more people that are vaccinated, the fewer bombers will be thrown against you. If only six take off and fly towards your City, then it doesn't matter if you only get one hours notice, because you're not getting the same "dose" of bombers you were previously.
https://twitter.com/TheKopHQ/status/1366090238502834176