I watched a bit of Parliament earlier, I’ve pretty much not watched broadcast telly or the news since the Nov lockdown was announced (try it, its great).
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
I know it's been gone over, but it really is flabbergasting that piles of AZ are not being used because some politicians took the easy route and trashed its reputation to deflect from their problems.
I watched a bit of Parliament earlier, I’ve pretty much not watched broadcast telly or the news since the Nov lockdown was announced (try it, its great).
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
I watched a bit of Parliament earlier, I’ve pretty much not watched broadcast telly or the news since the Nov lockdown was announced (try it, its great).
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
He's frustrated he can't hang Covid-19 around Boris's neck to bring him down, because of his obsession with his original leading role in Brexit.
It really is that simple.
The obsession with Brexit is entirely among Leavers.
There is literally nothing Leavers will not excuse, up to and including tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
He's frustrated he can't hang Covid-19 around Boris's neck to bring him down, because of his obsession with his original leading role in Brexit.
It really is that simple.
The obsession with Brexit is entirely among Leavers. Boris Johnson has made a series of unforgivable mistakes on Covid-19. But Leavers are willing to overlook them all because of Brexit.
There is literally nothing Leavers will not excuse, up to and including tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
This has important betting implications. (It also means the country will continue its long term decline under atrocious governance, but that’s a side note really.)
Just because you keep saying something over and over again, doesn't make it true...
When is the end, can you give us a exact time and date please....and just how many people, to the person, are you killing by lifting lockdown over the course of 3 months.
ETA forgot to add the status reports -- note US EST is 5 hours behind GMT. Monitoring - A fix has been implemented and we are monitoring the results. Feb 22, 14:31 EST Identified - The issue has been identified and a fix is being implemented. Feb 22, 14:23 EST Investigating - We are currently investigating this issue. Feb 22, 14:10 EST
I watched a bit of Parliament earlier, I’ve pretty much not watched broadcast telly or the news since the Nov lockdown was announced (try it, its great).
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
I know it's been gone over, but it really is flabbergasting that piles of AZ are not being used because some politicians took the easy route and trashed its reputation to deflect from their problems.
If there is all this AZ stuff left over why has vaccine rollout been decelerating in the UK?
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
The slaying of Zero Covid is indeed great to see. Just watched an excellent interview with Professor Sir John Bell where he colourfully described it as a “crackpot idea, no idea where it came from, what planet were people on if they thought they could remove all cases on Covid from the eight billion human beings on Earth?”
yes and the likes of New Zealand are going to have to do some thinking here because like anyone who has a pristine house needs to accept it will become messy when you actually want to live and really enjoy it. Zero covid is a serious fetish that should be shot down in flames by any normal human
NZ have tens of thousands attending the rugby. How are they not enjoying it?
When is the end, can you give us a exact time and date please....and just how many people, to the person, are you killing by lifting lockdown over the course of 3 months.
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
The slaying of Zero Covid is indeed great to see. Just watched an excellent interview with Professor Sir John Bell where he colourfully described it as a “crackpot idea, no idea where it came from, what planet were people on if they thought they could remove all cases on Covid from the eight billion human beings on Earth?”
yes and the likes of New Zealand are going to have to do some thinking here because like anyone who has a pristine house needs to accept it will become messy when you actually want to live and really enjoy it. Zero covid is a serious fetish that should be shot down in flames by any normal human
NZ have tens of thousands attending the rugby. How are they not enjoying it?
I have a Kiwi friend that was unable to go home for Xmas, she's not enjoying it very much. But they seem to be ready to adopt the vaccine passport so hopefully they will get the border opened up once they've got vaccination done too.
I think it's all too slow, because of the impact on mental health and the economy. Boris was obviously scarred by his experience last year, so he's making the obvious mistake this year. I'd have three weeks not five between each phase, and merge phases 2 and 3 and 4 and 5. Still, at least critics in the party have something to shoot at now.
I imagine the government will implement Phase 1 and maybe 2 as planned, but I think after that, unless of course there's a massive spike in cases, the pressure to open up will grow and they'll have to revise the remainder of the timetable.
Also, as others have noticed, people are more and more ignoring the restrictions they don't like anyway. And as the weather gets better, that'll only increase.
Yes, I think phases 3-5 might actually come sooner if the vaccine programme is going well and COVID hospitalisations have reached double figures per day.
I hope so, but the phrase "No earlier than..." seems to indicate otherwise.
But when hospitals are empty next month (numbers going down in England at about 600-700 per day) and hospitalisations in double figures (numbers going down by about 50-70 per day) it's going to be very difficult for the PM to resist the backbenchers calling for a faster unlockdown timetable, especially bringing forwards hospitality to the beginning of May to make the first bank holiday weekend.
Under promise, over deliver.
I think he struck a clever balance today. For the cautious it is an initially cautious, slow lifting of lockdown. For the sceptics there's a complete lifting of restrictions by June. It's an initially slower but ultimately faster lifting of restrictions than I'd expected. Nobody gets exactly what they want, but there's something for everyone.
If the issue is in a few weeks time events are better than planned, that's a good problem to have.
Indeed - it's almost like he's learnt from the virus - it feels like an exponential lifting of restrictions rather than the much more usual / expected linear one.
Peter Hitchens makes a good point when he says that many of the emergency measures brought in after 9/11 that were supposed to be temporary are still in place today.
I used to think Politicians were the lowest of the low. The more I see and hear of them the more I think that applies to journalists. A great and important part of our democratic process brought low by the idiots who practice it today.
Kuenssberg, Peston and Coates all asking extraordinarily stupid questions.
I used to think Politicians were the lowest of the low. The more I see and hear of them the more I think that applies to journalists. A great and important part of our democratic process brought low by the idiots who practice it today.
Kuenssberg, Peston and Coates all asking extraordinarily stupid questions.
And it isn't a one off....they do this every time.
To be honest, astute as that observation might be, I would much rather Starmer did that than tried to score petty political points which only distract from the job at hand. On Covid I think Starmer has had a pretty good response the whole time and was glad that Johnson acknowledged that today.
One interesting stat from the report, the UK has now done over 80 million PCR tests.
Worldometers reckons 86m, which is higher per capita than Israel.
For all the crap thrown at the testing programme, it’s actually been very successful after a slow start.
Was it? When it was most needed in December and January I knew four people who took a test in different parts of the country. 2-3 days to get the appointment, but then only 1 of the results came back within 4 days making the whole thing pointless.
Not helped by Dido deciding it was not her job to predict when demand might increase for testing.
I used to think Politicians were the lowest of the low. The more I see and hear of them the more I think that applies to journalists. A great and important part of our democratic process brought low by the idiots who practice it today.
Kuenssberg, Peston and Coates all asking extraordinarily stupid questions.
Quite unbelievably so. I switched on about ten minutes ago and I've never seen anything like it. Dumbing down is a massive understatement
It has occurred to me that Boris rejection of eliminating covid, and publishing a pathway through the crisis culminating on the 21st June is going to put Sturgeon on the spot as she is totally risk averse and if she does not follow this path people and businesses in Scotland are going to erupt
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
He's frustrated he can't hang Covid-19 around Boris's neck to bring him down, because of his obsession with his original leading role in Brexit.
It really is that simple.
The obsession with Brexit is entirely among Leavers. Boris Johnson has made a series of unforgivable mistakes on Covid-19. But Leavers are willing to overlook them all because of Brexit.
There is literally nothing Leavers will not excuse, up to and including tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
This has important betting implications. (It also means the country will continue its long term decline under atrocious governance, but that’s a side note really.)
Just because you keep saying something over and over again, doesn't make it true...
No but it is all Alistair has left. He will persist in his Heath like whinge for evermore I am afraid, long after everyone else has forgotten him and moved on.
It has occurred to me that Boris rejection of eliminating covid, and publishing a pathway through the crisis culminating on the 21st June is going to put Sturgeon on the spot as she is totally risk averse and if she does not follow this path people and businesses in Scotland are going to erupt
You should go and join the journalists. Sounds like you've got their level.
I know it's been gone over, but it really is flabbergasting that piles of AZ are not being used because some politicians took the easy route and trashed its reputation to deflect from their problems.
If there is all this AZ stuff left over why has vaccine rollout been decelerating in the UK?
It has occurred to me that Boris rejection of eliminating covid, and publishing a pathway through the crisis culminating on the 21st June is going to put Sturgeon on the spot as she is totally risk averse and if she does not follow this path people and businesses in Scotland are going to erupt
You should go and join the journalists. Sounds like you've got their level.
It has occurred to me that Boris rejection of eliminating covid, and publishing a pathway through the crisis culminating on the 21st June is going to put Sturgeon on the spot as she is totally risk averse and if she does not follow this path people and businesses in Scotland are going to erupt
She'll just ignore the businesses in the way Boris Johnson has ignored (Scottish) fisherman and the creative industries.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
He's frustrated he can't hang Covid-19 around Boris's neck to bring him down, because of his obsession with his original leading role in Brexit.
It really is that simple.
The obsession with Brexit is entirely among Leavers. Boris Johnson has made a series of unforgivable mistakes on Covid-19. But Leavers are willing to overlook them all because of Brexit.
There is literally nothing Leavers will not excuse, up to and including tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
This has important betting implications. (It also means the country will continue its long term decline under atrocious governance, but that’s a side note really.)
It might be good to see some evidence for these increasingly erratic assertions.
What might provide evidence? Well, a comparative study of excess deaths in England, Scotland and Wales relative to other countries with similar demographics and age profiles (in practice, other countries in Western Europe) might. I am sure such studies will be performed by professional statisticians.
If that provided statistically significant evidence that England (or Wales or Scotland) had done badly, then Johnson (or Sturgeon or Drakeford) can indeed be accused of causing unnecessary deaths. And I will be ready to do the accusing.
Until there is some statistical evidence, ... the Razor of the Drink-Sodden Trotskyist Popinjay applies.
What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.
I used to think Politicians were the lowest of the low. The more I see and hear of them the more I think that applies to journalists. A great and important part of our democratic process brought low by the idiots who practice it today.
Kuenssberg, Peston and Coates all asking extraordinarily stupid questions.
Quite unbelievably so. I switched on about ten minutes ago and I've never seen anything like it. Dumbing down is a massive understatement
Trouble is this is now the norm. It is terrible because we need the media to hold all politicians to account and by being so stupid? or Lazy? or fixed in the ways? they give the politicians the ability to swipe them aside and no one bats an eyelid.
It is telling that about the only decent questions in the whole thing came from the two non journalists at the start.
It has occurred to me that Boris rejection of eliminating covid, and publishing a pathway through the crisis culminating on the 21st June is going to put Sturgeon on the spot as she is totally risk averse and if she does not follow this path people and businesses in Scotland are going to erupt
She'll just ignore the businesses in the way Boris Johnson has ignored (Scottish) fisherman and the creative industries.
And as England opens the population of Scotland will not take kindly to being restrained
It has occurred to me that Boris rejection of eliminating covid, and publishing a pathway through the crisis culminating on the 21st June is going to put Sturgeon on the spot as she is totally risk averse and if she does not follow this path people and businesses in Scotland are going to erupt
She'll just ignore the businesses in the way Boris Johnson has ignored (Scottish) fisherman and the creative industries.
And as England opens the population of Scotland will not take kindly to being restrained
I don't know why people make such a big deal about this Mars landing thing, I'm sure I have seen them knock up something just as good on Scrapheap Challenge ;-)
Have they talked about a plan to vaccinate the homeless and illegal immigrants? Seems like something that needs to be quite urgently addressed I’d have thought
Peter Hitchens makes a good point when he says that many of the emergency measures brought in after 9/11 that were supposed to be temporary are still in place today.
Which emergency measures? As far as I can tell - and maybe I'm wrong - the government has fewer emergency powers now than it did in the 1980s when there were the troubles.
I don't know why people make such a big deal about this Mars landing thing, I'm sure I have seen them knock up something just as good on Scrapheap Challenge ;-)
It is all faked anyway.
Until they show footage of Marvin the Martian then I'm not interested.
Have they talked about a plan to vaccinate the homeless and illegal immigrants? Seems like something that needs to be quite urgently addressed I’d have thought
Surely, in the later stages of the vaccination programme, you simply have walk-in centres where anyone can get jabbed?
Have they talked about a plan to vaccinate the homeless and illegal immigrants? Seems like something that needs to be quite urgently addressed I’d have thought
Yes, they announced you can be vaccinated regardless of immigration status. And plenty of stories of homeless getting jabbed.
I used to think Politicians were the lowest of the low. The more I see and hear of them the more I think that applies to journalists. A great and important part of our democratic process brought low by the idiots who practice it today.
Kuenssberg, Peston and Coates all asking extraordinarily stupid questions.
Quite unbelievably so. I switched on about ten minutes ago and I've never seen anything like it. Dumbing down is a massive understatement
Trouble is this is now the norm. It is terrible because we need the media to hold all politicians to account and by being so stupid? or Lazy? or fixed in the ways? they give the politicians the ability to swipe them aside and no one bats an eyelid.
It is telling that about the only decent questions in the whole thing came from the two non journalists at the start.
On the whole the public ask questions to elicit information or clarify issues, journalists generally are looking to find some inconsistency, disagreement, or provoke a response. I've heard almost every one of these briefings and in my opinion the public have consistently been the better questioners.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
He's frustrated he can't hang Covid-19 around Boris's neck to bring him down, because of his obsession with his original leading role in Brexit.
It really is that simple.
The obsession with Brexit is entirely among Leavers. Boris Johnson has made a series of unforgivable mistakes on Covid-19. But Leavers are willing to overlook them all because of Brexit.
There is literally nothing Leavers will not excuse, up to and including tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
This has important betting implications. (It also means the country will continue its long term decline under atrocious governance, but that’s a side note really.)
Question is- how much do any of us realise the relative degrees of messed-upness in different countries?
Partly, that's about absolute death tolls- the January spike seems to have just happened with a shrug.
Also, it's the extent of current lockdown. If you take the numbers here,
The UK has been in an unusually long and hard lockdown this winter, compared with other similar countries.
(And to save anyone the trouble- lockdown is what you do when you've messed up. You can hold cases constant fairly easily, and as long as you hold them constant and low, that's sort of tolerable. If you let them get out of control, you have to lockdown harder to reduce them. It's germ theory and maths.)
But I don't know how the numbers are generated. What would be interesting would be:
1 What actually have been the social controls in different places over the winter? 2 What is the public perception of what the social controls in different places have been? 3 What is the public perception of the infection rates in different places?
Because that gets to the heart of whether this is an awful challenge that most nations have fumbled or an awful challenge where the UK government have done significantly worse.
That graph at the top really is quite good news isn't it.
There's a lot of good news out there in the last 48 hours. In addition to that chart, I'd note:
(1) AZ is just as good as Pfizer at preventing hospitalisations (Scotland) (2) In Israel, while cases of SA/Brazil variant are increasing in the unvaccinated, they are basically unknown in the vaccinated
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
I’d be saying “these bloody Stalinist, nanny state lunatics have bankrupted the country, turned fiat into toilet paper, taken away ancient liberties with no reasoned evidence as to why and don’t seem to even care about the cascade of mental illness they’ve unleashed, such is their fixation on a single, likely undeliverable policy goal”.
I’d then say, what do Her Maj’s Oppositon have to say? Much the same. But at least the leader has banter, an exciting sex life and an amusing hairline with a mind of its own.
Starmer is not as clever as he looks if he thinks he’ll win Downing St in 3 years by harping on about locking down / not locking down in Spring 2020. He needs to pivot to cheerful optimism and fast or he’s done for.
Is this your main requirement from political leaders then? Cheerful optimism?
I don't know why people make such a big deal about this Mars landing thing, I'm sure I have seen them knock up something just as good on Scrapheap Challenge ;-)
Miscarriages of justice rarely happen to completely wonderful people. This is because we try to give a shit about miscarriages of justice for not so wonderful people.
Because whatever is done to bad people on Monday will be done to not-nice people by Wednesday. And nice people will be hit with it by the weekend....
I know it's been gone over, but it really is flabbergasting that piles of AZ are not being used because some politicians took the easy route and trashed its reputation to deflect from their problems.
If there is all this AZ stuff left over why has vaccine rollout been decelerating in the UK?
It's in Germany
I don't think that's true. The UK had 20 million doses of AZ, albeit a lot had not been QC-tested yet, and/or bottled. I don't think any of that has been shipped abroad.
So, I think that means that delays are likely due to a lack of vials - something that will hopefully be sorted sooner rather than later.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
I’d be saying “these bloody Stalinist, nanny state lunatics have bankrupted the country, turned fiat into toilet paper, taken away ancient liberties with no reasoned evidence as to why and don’t seem to even care about the cascade of mental illness they’ve unleashed, such is their fixation on a single, likely undeliverable policy goal”.
I’d then say, what do Her Maj’s Oppositon have to say? Much the same. But at least the leader has banter, an exciting sex life and an amusing hairline with a mind of its own.
Starmer is not as clever as he looks if he thinks he’ll win Downing St in 3 years by harping on about locking down / not locking down in Spring 2020. He needs to pivot to cheerful optimism and fast or he’s done for.
Is this your main requirement from political leaders then? Cheerful optimism?
Yeah pretty much. They’re all pretty useless at positively impacting my life so I at least expect them to raise the occasional smile.
I know it's been gone over, but it really is flabbergasting that piles of AZ are not being used because some politicians took the easy route and trashed its reputation to deflect from their problems.
If there is all this AZ stuff left over why has vaccine rollout been decelerating in the UK?
It's in Germany
I don't think that's true. The UK had 20 million doses of AZ, albeit a lot had not been QC-tested yet, and/or bottled. I don't think any of that has been shipped abroad.
So, I think that means that delays are likely due to a lack of vials - something that will hopefully be sorted sooner rather than later.
I used to think Politicians were the lowest of the low. The more I see and hear of them the more I think that applies to journalists. A great and important part of our democratic process brought low by the idiots who practice it today.
Kuenssberg, Peston and Coates all asking extraordinarily stupid questions.
Quite unbelievably so. I switched on about ten minutes ago and I've never seen anything like it. Dumbing down is a massive understatement
Trouble is this is now the norm. It is terrible because we need the media to hold all politicians to account and by being so stupid? or Lazy? or fixed in the ways? they give the politicians the ability to swipe them aside and no one bats an eyelid.
It is telling that about the only decent questions in the whole thing came from the two non journalists at the start.
On the whole the public ask questions to elicit information or clarify issues, journalists generally are looking to find some inconsistency, disagreement, or provoke a response. I've heard almost every one of these briefings and in my opinion the public have consistently been the better questioners.
To be fair though, the Govt. gets to choose the public questions.
It has no way of knowing just how twattish the press questions will be.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
He's frustrated he can't hang Covid-19 around Boris's neck to bring him down, because of his obsession with his original leading role in Brexit.
It really is that simple.
The obsession with Brexit is entirely among Leavers. Boris Johnson has made a series of unforgivable mistakes on Covid-19. But Leavers are willing to overlook them all because of Brexit.
There is literally nothing Leavers will not excuse, up to and including tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
This has important betting implications. (It also means the country will continue its long term decline under atrocious governance, but that’s a side note really.)
Just because you keep saying something over and over again, doesn't make it true...
It's the hope that gets you, I can live with the despair.
No hope, just despair for me. Boing, boing!
It was 10 years ago today that my eldest son was involved if the huge Christchurch earthquake witnessing many terrible sights especially at ground zero, and this morning he has received his 5th electroconvulsive therapy treatment out of ten as he still carries the enormity of his involvement with his PTSD worsening by the day
Beautiful words from Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand PM, today that could have been written especially for him but he is one of so many affected that terrible day
To be honest, he and our family are well versed in despair
Have they talked about a plan to vaccinate the homeless and illegal immigrants? Seems like something that needs to be quite urgently addressed I’d have thought
Surely, in the later stages of the vaccination programme, you simply have walk-in centres where anyone can get jabbed?
Sure but that’s a necessary and not sufficient action. We need serious outreach to get to as many people as possible. And given offers of first doses in adults likely to be achieved by circa end of May, they don’t have long to get there.
Also goes for fully legal BAME vaccine refuseniks of course but I assume there’s a plan brewing there already. Ideally you want some behind the scenes arrangement with some of the Faces to try and get it organised smoothly in the grey / illegal sector of the economy for people too scared to turn up at an anonymous vaccine drive.
That graph at the top really is quite good news isn't it.
There's a lot of good news out there in the last 48 hours. In addition to that chart, I'd note:
(1) AZ is just as good as Pfizer at preventing hospitalisations (Scotland) (2) In Israel, while cases of SA/Brazil variant are increasing in the unvaccinated, they are basically unknown in the vaccinated
Yes. There’s almost too much going on to unpack. Needs someone to clear the decks at the Times/Guardian and lay it all out in tomorrow’s paper.
It's the hope that gets you, I can live with the despair.
No hope, just despair for me. Boing, boing!
It was 10 years ago today that my eldest son was involved if the huge Christchurch earthquake witnessing many terrible sights especially at ground zero, and this morning he has received his 5th electroconvulsive therapy treatment out of ten as he still carries the enormity of his involvement with his PTSD worsening by the day
Beautiful words from Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand PM, today that could have been written especially for him but he is one of so many affected that terrible day
To be honest, he and our family are well versed in despair
My post was simply a response to a tragic and current footballing catastrophe.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
He's frustrated he can't hang Covid-19 around Boris's neck to bring him down, because of his obsession with his original leading role in Brexit.
It really is that simple.
The obsession with Brexit is entirely among Leavers. Boris Johnson has made a series of unforgivable mistakes on Covid-19. But Leavers are willing to overlook them all because of Brexit.
There is literally nothing Leavers will not excuse, up to and including tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
This has important betting implications. (It also means the country will continue its long term decline under atrocious governance, but that’s a side note really.)
Question is- how much do any of us realise the relative degrees of messed-upness in different countries?
Partly, that's about absolute death tolls- the January spike seems to have just happened with a shrug.
Also, it's the extent of current lockdown. If you take the numbers here,
The UK has been in an unusually long and hard lockdown this winter, compared with other similar countries.
(And to save anyone the trouble- lockdown is what you do when you've messed up. You can hold cases constant fairly easily, and as long as you hold them constant and low, that's sort of tolerable. If you let them get out of control, you have to lockdown harder to reduce them. It's germ theory and maths.)
But I don't know how the numbers are generated. What would be interesting would be:
1 What actually have been the social controls in different places over the winter? 2 What is the public perception of what the social controls in different places have been? 3 What is the public perception of the infection rates in different places?
Because that gets to the heart of whether this is an awful challenge that most nations have fumbled or an awful challenge where the UK government have done significantly worse.
Only the first of those is in any way significant. The other two do not have any objective or even subjective validity because different populations have different attitudes to social controls based on their cultures and history.
Surely the most significant moment in the press conference came from Chris Whitty confirming that in the future R may go above 1 but thanks to the vaccines that will be ok.
The idea SAGE would be demanding lockdown forever died today. Good!
I watched a bit of Parliament earlier, I’ve pretty much not watched broadcast telly or the news since the Nov lockdown was announced (try it, its great).
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
People like their PM's to not consistently have a face like a slapped arse.
Way too small a sample. Thatcher wasn't a grinning idiot. Nor was Major.
The early 90s might as well be caveman times as far as I'm concerned.
Why do you say that?
Because I'm joking.
But the relevant point is while kinabalu is right in this instance, there comes a point when comparisons to past political eras will become redundant. People have obsesses over the 70s and 80s for way too long already,a nd will in time obsess over the 90s too much.
Surely the most significant moment in the press conference came from Chris Whitty confirming that in the future R may go above 1 but thanks to the vaccines that will be ok.
The idea SAGE would be demanding lockdown forever died today. Good!
That Edmunds monkey is right back in his box. Perhaps they’ll stop inviting him to give his view on telly and the Sunday newspapers.
I know it's been gone over, but it really is flabbergasting that piles of AZ are not being used because some politicians took the easy route and trashed its reputation to deflect from their problems.
If there is all this AZ stuff left over why has vaccine rollout been decelerating in the UK?
It's in Germany
I don't think that's true. The UK had 20 million doses of AZ, albeit a lot had not been QC-tested yet, and/or bottled. I don't think any of that has been shipped abroad.
So, I think that means that delays are likely due to a lack of vials - something that will hopefully be sorted sooner rather than later.
I was wondering, are they not recyclable?
By guess is that they are, but the processes have not been put in place yet. All part of the the inevitable complexities of ramping up production and distribution.
Basically, why can't you give us an exact date when this will be over and a report says that lifting restrictions could kill an extra 30k people, how many do you think you will be killing with this plan.
Comments
https://status.vanillaforums.com/
ETA forgot to add the status reports -- note US EST is 5 hours behind GMT.
Monitoring - A fix has been implemented and we are monitoring the results.
Feb 22, 14:31 EST
Identified - The issue has been identified and a fix is being implemented.
Feb 22, 14:23 EST
Investigating - We are currently investigating this issue.
Feb 22, 14:10 EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYQwuYZbA6o
Kuenssberg, Peston and Coates all asking extraordinarily stupid questions.
from case data
from hospitalisations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19RJKnh9hbU
https://twitter.com/jamesmatthewsky/status/1363934976698437633
https://twitter.com/jamesmatthewsky/status/1363935230143459330
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/science-environment-56159376
What might provide evidence? Well, a comparative study of excess deaths in England, Scotland and Wales relative to other countries with similar demographics and age profiles (in practice, other countries in Western Europe) might. I am sure such studies will be performed by professional statisticians.
If that provided statistically significant evidence that England (or Wales or Scotland) had done badly, then Johnson (or Sturgeon or Drakeford) can indeed be accused of causing unnecessary deaths. And I will be ready to do the accusing.
Until there is some statistical evidence, ... the Razor of the Drink-Sodden Trotskyist Popinjay applies.
What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.
It is telling that about the only decent questions in the whole thing came from the two non journalists at the start.
Until they show footage of Marvin the Martian then I'm not interested.
Partly, that's about absolute death tolls- the January spike seems to have just happened with a shrug.
Also, it's the extent of current lockdown. If you take the numbers here,
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-lockdowns/
The UK has been in an unusually long and hard lockdown this winter, compared with other similar countries.
(And to save anyone the trouble- lockdown is what you do when you've messed up. You can hold cases constant fairly easily, and as long as you hold them constant and low, that's sort of tolerable. If you let them get out of control, you have to lockdown harder to reduce them. It's germ theory and maths.)
But I don't know how the numbers are generated. What would be interesting would be:
1 What actually have been the social controls in different places over the winter?
2 What is the public perception of what the social controls in different places have been?
3 What is the public perception of the infection rates in different places?
Because that gets to the heart of whether this is an awful challenge that most nations have fumbled or an awful challenge where the UK government have done significantly worse.
(1) AZ is just as good as Pfizer at preventing hospitalisations (Scotland)
(2) In Israel, while cases of SA/Brazil variant are increasing in the unvaccinated, they are basically unknown in the vaccinated
Gaby Hinsliff on Twitter
Because whatever is done to bad people on Monday will be done to not-nice people by Wednesday. And nice people will be hit with it by the weekend....
So, I think that means that delays are likely due to a lack of vials - something that will hopefully be sorted sooner rather than later.
It has no way of knowing just how twattish the press questions will be.
Other than experience.
Beautiful words from Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand PM, today that could have been written especially for him but he is one of so many affected that terrible day
To be honest, he and our family are well versed in despair
Also goes for fully legal BAME vaccine refuseniks of course but I assume there’s a plan brewing there already. Ideally you want some behind the scenes arrangement with some of the Faces to try and get it organised smoothly in the grey / illegal sector of the economy for people too scared to turn up at an anonymous vaccine drive.
Can't be any other reason.
Hence boing boing.
The idea SAGE would be demanding lockdown forever died today. Good!
A sensible balanced roadmap and it gives us all real hope now.
But the relevant point is while kinabalu is right in this instance, there comes a point when comparisons to past political eras will become redundant. People have obsesses over the 70s and 80s for way too long already,a nd will in time obsess over the 90s too much.