Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
If the case doesn't suprise me, having 100,000 of plague spreaders moving around the country.
Practical courses that need to be done to complete degree will be back so def final years in chem, phys, bio, prob engineering etc. I know we have been planning lab classes for pharmacologists.
Yup, pages 31 and 32 of the document.
Almost celebrating here, tbf.
None of the dentists are being allowed to graduate in Dundee this year and I believe other dental schools are the same. Their final year is almost exclusively practical work on patients and they have not been able to do nearly enough. This is having knock on consequences as you can imagine. The dental schools are planning to send out half the number of offers they normally do this year and next to try and deal with the bulge.
A couple of my son's friends are applying for dentistry. Its never easy but this is brutal.
I haven't heard the same for Medical Schools, but there are real issues for postgraduate training. I don't think releasing them on the great British public without remedial training would be a good idea, but if we don't then what are the newly qualified to do?
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been..
Yes, it has been pretty remarkable, as though a combination of numbness after so much time and the arrival of genuinely good news about future prospects has really undercut just how truly terrible this last wave has been. January was an absolute horror show.
It absolutely was. Imagine if we had had that and no vaccines. Would our economy have survived? I fear we would have had to simply accept 1-2% were going to die and get on with it. We've dodged a bullet. This time.
Well exactly this. Covid isn't actually the doomsday virus that it could have been (or indeed our response has implied).
How the hell would we deal with a virus or bacteria that causes relative insta-death in a cruel and nasty fashion completely irrespective of age or health?
What joys await undiscovered in the deepest Congo or Amazon to released by someone doing something to or with an animal that they shouldn't.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been..
Yes, it has been pretty remarkable, as though a combination of numbness after so much time and the arrival of genuinely good news about future prospects has really undercut just how truly terrible this last wave has been. January was an absolute horror show.
It absolutely was. Imagine if we had had that and no vaccines. Would our economy have survived? I fear we would have had to simply accept 1-2% were going to die and get on with it. We've dodged a bullet. This time.
Well exactly this. Covid isn't actually the doomsday virus that it could have been (or indeed our response has implied).
How the hell would we deal with a virus or bacteria that causes relative insta-death in a cruel and nasty fashion completely irrespective of age or health?
What joys await undiscovered in the deepest Congo or Amazon to released by someone doing something to or with an animal that they shouldn't.
Dunno but if you ask the Chinese they can probably give you a good idea.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been..
Yes, it has been pretty remarkable, as though a combination of numbness after so much time and the arrival of genuinely good news about future prospects has really undercut just how truly terrible this last wave has been. January was an absolute horror show.
Wasn;t it everywhere?
And hasn;t the disease waned in the world in February, pretty much everywhere?
Not really. Portugal and Ireland had shockers, because they tried to have Christmas off.
But whilst most of the Northern Hemisphere has had a bad winter, the price of the government's Operation Save Christmas, followed by Operation Let's Faff About For Ten Days is plain as a pikestaff on top of that.
21 June removal of all legal limits is good news indeed.
21st June "at the earliest".
Freedom is always four months away...
Yes, all dates are given "at the earliest".
Which everyone will edit out.
Well yes but given how well the vaccination programme is going and the near certainty that the figures that matter (hospitalisations/deaths) will continue to fall I`d put money on those dates being adhered to.
Not too much I hope. Not cos I disagree with you. But purely that this virus has been so brutal, it seems unwise for my mental health to get my hopes up so high.
My daughters are delighted they are going back to school 8 March. Great to see them smiling. That`s the biggest plus today for us.
Also, they can look forward to outdoor house parties from 17 May (30 people limit).
21 June removal of all legal limits is good news indeed.
21st June "at the earliest".
Freedom is always four months away...
Yes, all dates are given "at the earliest".
Which everyone will edit out.
Well yes but given how well the vaccination programme is going and the near certainty that the figures that matter (hospitalisations/deaths) will continue to fall I`d put money on those dates being adhered to.
Not too much I hope. Not cos I disagree with you. But purely that this virus has been so brutal, it seems unwise for my mental health to get my hopes up so high.
My daughters are delighted they are going back to school 8 March. Great to see them smiling. That`s the biggest plus today for us.
Also, they can look forward to outdoor house parties from 17 May (30 people limit).
Al we need is some weather.
I have exams WC 17th May ffs!!
They have to give lawyers toilet training?
(Apols if I missed an explanation)
Aha. Week commencing.
You can tell I'm just in from the daily bike ride.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
Neither should it be a kangaroo court for those with a grudge against Johnson and his government.
Especially if its built on the post hoc ergo propter hoc argument about lockdowns that the US is now deconstructing, because of the various approaches of the various different states.
21 June removal of all legal limits is good news indeed.
21st June "at the earliest".
Freedom is always four months away...
Yes, all dates are given "at the earliest".
Which everyone will edit out.
Well yes but given how well the vaccination programme is going and the near certainty that the figures that matter (hospitalisations/deaths) will continue to fall I`d put money on those dates being adhered to.
Not too much I hope. Not cos I disagree with you. But purely that this virus has been so brutal, it seems unwise for my mental health to get my hopes up so high.
My daughters are delighted they are going back to school 8 March. Great to see them smiling. That`s the biggest plus today for us.
Also, they can look forward to outdoor house parties from 17 May (30 people limit).
Al we need is some weather.
I have exams WC 17th May ffs!!
They have to give lawyers toilet training?
(Apols if I missed an explanation)
Aha. Week commencing.
You can tell I'm just in from the daily bike ride.
Today at 4.30. First day I’ve been able to get the bike out since August.
Lovely feeling although a bit chilly on the steep downhills.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been..
Yes, it has been pretty remarkable, as though a combination of numbness after so much time and the arrival of genuinely good news about future prospects has really undercut just how truly terrible this last wave has been. January was an absolute horror show.
Wasn;t it everywhere?
And hasn;t the disease waned in the world in February, pretty much everywhere?
Not really. Portugal and Ireland had shockers, because they tried to have Christmas off.
But whilst most of the Northern Hemisphere has had a bad winter, the price of the government's Operation Save Christmas, followed by Operation Let's Faff About For Ten Days is plain as a pikestaff on top of that.
International travel in 12 weeks is something to look forward to.
At the earliest and if the government only decides in mid-April it won’t be until mid-July....
They kept saying schools would go back on the 8th March ‘at the earliest’ but have become boxed in even though they seem confused as to what they’re actually doing.
That is the date international travel will be back.
If the case doesn't suprise me, having 100,000 of plague spreaders moving around the country.
Practical courses that need to be done to complete degree will be back so def final years in chem, phys, bio, prob engineering etc. I know we have been planning lab classes for pharmacologists.
Yup, pages 31 and 32 of the document.
Almost celebrating here, tbf.
None of the dentists are being allowed to graduate in Dundee this year and I believe other dental schools are the same. Their final year is almost exclusively practical work on patients and they have not been able to do nearly enough. This is having knock on consequences as you can imagine. The dental schools are planning to send out half the number of offers they normally do this year and next to try and deal with the bulge.
A couple of my son's friends are applying for dentistry. Its never easy but this is brutal.
I haven't heard the same for Medical Schools, but there are real issues for postgraduate training. I don't think releasing them on the great British public without remedial training would be a good idea, but if we don't then what are the newly qualified to do?
Have the postgraduates not been busy on the wards? A friend of my daughter graduated early (along with her classmates) so they could go on the front line. I appreciate that there may be issues in specialties but they have probably had more ward experience than similar cohorts.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
when?
they didn't last summer.
I'm not sure deaths rising is 'nailed on'. Not descending at quite the same rate, more than possible.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
Neither should it be a kangaroo court for those with a grudge against Johnson and his government.
Especially if its built on the post hoc ergo propter hoc argument about lockdowns that the US is now deconstructing, because of the various approaches of the various different states.
As long as it proves conclusively that Brexit was a bad idea it will have served its purpose.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
Neither should it be a kangaroo court for those with a grudge against Johnson and his government.
Especially if its built on the post hoc ergo propter hoc argument about lockdowns that the US is now deconstructing, because of the various approaches of the various different states.
You do run with a Latin phrase when you find one, don't you?
International travel in 12 weeks is something to look forward to.
At the earliest and if the government only decides in mid-April it won’t be until mid-July....
Even then, it will likely be very limited and only to countries with advanced vaccination programmes or low infection case rates. It will be aimed at business travellers and family reunions.
There’s pretty much no chance of 10m Brits heading off for a fortnight in France or Spain this summer.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
Agreed. I don't want there to be recriminations, let the voters make that decision. What we need is a national pandemic plan which can be activated overnight with borders closed, insurance schemes for repatriation, a very quick cycle up for testing and rapid vaccine development etc...
I think it's all too slow, because of the impact on mental health and the economy. Boris was obviously scarred by his experience last year, so he's making the obvious mistake this year. I'd have three weeks not five between each phase, and merge phases 2 and 3 and 4 and 5. Still, at least critics in the party have something to shoot at now.
I imagine the government will implement Phase 1 and maybe 2 as planned, but I think after that, unless of course there's a massive spike in cases, the pressure to open up will grow and they'll have to revise the remainder of the timetable.
Also, as others have noticed, people are more and more ignoring the restrictions they don't like anyway. And as the weather gets better, that'll only increase.
Yes, I think phases 3-5 might actually come sooner if the vaccine programme is going well and COVID hospitalisations have reached double figures per day.
I hope so, but the phrase "No earlier than..." seems to indicate otherwise.
That is the story I am referring to. If she actually had a zero covid policy why would people be urging her to adopt one?
Sturgeon and Sridhar have both mentioned “zero COVID” several times - the Nat Onal was crowing about how Scotland’s zero COVID approach was superior to England’s. I guess we’ll see tomorrow what her long term plan is.
I think it's all too slow, because of the impact on mental health and the economy. Boris was obviously scarred by his experience last year, so he's making the obvious mistake this year. I'd have three weeks not five between each phase, and merge phases 2 and 3 and 4 and 5. Still, at least critics in the party have something to shoot at now.
I imagine the government will implement Phase 1 and maybe 2 as planned, but I think after that, unless of course there's a massive spike in cases, the pressure to open up will grow and they'll have to revise the remainder of the timetable.
Also, as others have noticed, people are more and more ignoring the restrictions they don't like anyway. And as the weather gets better, that'll only increase.
Yes, I think phases 3-5 might actually come sooner if the vaccine programme is going well and COVID hospitalisations have reached double figures per day.
I hope so, but the phrase "No earlier than..." seems to indicate otherwise.
The pressure to do earlier than the no earlier than dates will be immense if the vaccines are as successful as they were in trials.
Sports media on BBC and Sky Sports News has gone a bit bonkers this afternoon, lots of interviews about how great it is that clubs can have fans back from May 17. Yet the Football League season ends on May 16, FA Cup final is May 15, so its basically one round of Prem fixtures, where the clubs will have to work out special arrangements just for that one game.
England Scotland at Wembley in the Euros limited to 10k max crowd whereas three days later they would be allowed a full crowd.....
The England Scotland game needs looking at. Special measure? Vaxxed key workers only.
I checked the schedule earlier and there’s no way you could postpone it - there’s no breathing space in the tournament timetable.
Sports media on BBC and Sky Sports News has gone a bit bonkers this afternoon, lots of interviews about how great it is that clubs can have fans back from May 17. Yet the Football League season ends on May 16, FA Cup final is May 15, so its basically one round of Prem fixtures, where the clubs will have to work out special arrangements just for that one game.
England Scotland at Wembley in the Euros limited to 10k max crowd whereas three days later they would be allowed a full crowd.....
The England Scotland game needs looking at. Special measure? Vaxxed key workers only.
I checked the schedule earlier and there’s no way you could postpone it - there’s no breathing space in the tournament timetable.
Might get moved abroad where crowds will be allowed!
I watched a bit of Parliament earlier, I’ve pretty much not watched broadcast telly or the news since the Nov lockdown was announced (try it, its great).
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
I think it's all too slow, because of the impact on mental health and the economy. Boris was obviously scarred by his experience last year, so he's making the obvious mistake this year. I'd have three weeks not five between each phase, and merge phases 2 and 3 and 4 and 5. Still, at least critics in the party have something to shoot at now.
I imagine the government will implement Phase 1 and maybe 2 as planned, but I think after that, unless of course there's a massive spike in cases, the pressure to open up will grow and they'll have to revise the remainder of the timetable.
Also, as others have noticed, people are more and more ignoring the restrictions they don't like anyway. And as the weather gets better, that'll only increase.
Yes, I think phases 3-5 might actually come sooner if the vaccine programme is going well and COVID hospitalisations have reached double figures per day.
I hope so, but the phrase "No earlier than..." seems to indicate otherwise.
But when hospitals are empty next month (numbers going down in England at about 600-700 per day) and hospitalisations in double figures (numbers going down by about 50-70 per day) it's going to be very difficult for the PM to resist the backbenchers calling for a faster unlockdown timetable, especially bringing forwards hospitality to the beginning of May to make the first bank holiday weekend.
I would like to get excited about the announcement but I've lost a bit of confidence we won't go backwards again, and it's still too far off for me to be thrilled, so for now I'll just try and be positive that my friends and neighbours can get their kids properly educated in a fortnight and leave it at that.
They look like the latest possible dates. Theres a small chance the later ones could be moved forward slightly if things go better than expected. Boris knows he cant move them back without causing disappointment but if he can move them forward itll cheer everyone up.
That is the story I am referring to. If she actually had a zero covid policy why would people be urging her to adopt one?
Sturgeon and Sridhar have both mentioned “zero COVID” several times - the Nat Onal was crowing about how Scotland’s zero COVID approach was superior to England’s. I guess we’ll see tomorrow what her long term plan is.
I'm sorry, but having different regimes just to point to narrow nationalist "victories" over other members of the UK has been profoundly twattish. It has simply added to the confusion, giving cover for those saying "we don't understand it all...".
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear post vaccines but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
It's the hope that gets you, I can live with the despair.
I've had a year of despair. Some hope will be a nice change and this time it does feel as though we can beat it.
Quite right. I have something to aim for now. Get out on the bike, shed some pounds. Get into my best suit. Weddings to attend. Sod “living with despair” - we need to live in hope.
One interesting stat from the report, the UK has now done over 80 million PCR tests.
Worldometers reckons 86m, which is higher per capita than Israel.
For all the crap thrown at the testing programme, it’s actually been very successful after a slow start.
Was it? When it was most needed in December and January I knew four people who took a test in different parts of the country. 2-3 days to get the appointment, but then only 1 of the results came back within 4 days making the whole thing pointless.
Not helped by Dido deciding it was not her job to predict when demand might increase for testing.
So who will ask the most stupid question at the presser then? And how many times will it be claimed it is all too confusing? And how many foreign holiday questions?
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Errr .... Labour are in power. They are in power in Wales.
If the case doesn't suprise me, having 100,000 of plague spreaders moving around the country.
Practical courses that need to be done to complete degree will be back so def final years in chem, phys, bio, prob engineering etc. I know we have been planning lab classes for pharmacologists.
Yup, pages 31 and 32 of the document.
Almost celebrating here, tbf.
None of the dentists are being allowed to graduate in Dundee this year and I believe other dental schools are the same. Their final year is almost exclusively practical work on patients and they have not been able to do nearly enough. This is having knock on consequences as you can imagine. The dental schools are planning to send out half the number of offers they normally do this year and next to try and deal with the bulge.
A couple of my son's friends are applying for dentistry. Its never easy but this is brutal.
I haven't heard the same for Medical Schools, but there are real issues for postgraduate training. I don't think releasing them on the great British public without remedial training would be a good idea, but if we don't then what are the newly qualified to do?
Have the postgraduates not been busy on the wards? A friend of my daughter graduated early (along with her classmates) so they could go on the front line. I appreciate that there may be issues in specialties but they have probably had more ward experience than similar cohorts.
They have but trainee cardiologists might not have done a cardiac catheter in a year, junior surgeons not touched a scalpel. PG training is all about specialising.
Watching the excellent History of the 80s programme last night on Sky Arts I cam to realise just what an exceptional scientist Fauci is. He was in charge of the US Government research and response to the Aids epidemic in the mid 80s. There were huge protests including some violence from the gay community who thought the Government weren't doing enough to combat the disease. They were right, but that was not for lack of effort but lack of understanding.
When one protest threatened to become violent in front of the labs where Fauci was working he defused the situation by inviting the leaders in - against the advice of the police - listening to what they had to say and what they knew about the disease and then bringing them inside to work with the scientists and changed the whole direction of research.
Real scientists change their approach when the evidence changes. Fauci is a great scientist.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Errr .... Labour are in power. They are in power in Wales.
Labour seem to have made very similar mistakes.
In fairness, with half a dozen exceptions, everyone the world over has made similar mistakes. Some have made even more truly impressive and egregious mistakes (Sweden) but few people have a perfect track record.
What is frustrating with this lot is they keep making the same mistakes.
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
The slaying of Zero Covid is indeed great to see. Just watched an excellent interview with Professor Sir John Bell where he colourfully described it as a “crackpot idea, no idea where it came from, what planet were people on if they thought they could remove all cases on Covid from the eight billion human beings on Earth?”
I watched a bit of Parliament earlier, I’ve pretty much not watched broadcast telly or the news since the Nov lockdown was announced (try it, its great).
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
He'll do much better by being himself rather than trying to pretend he's someone else. It's hard to tell what sort of personality the electors will be attracted to, after the experience with Mr Johnson.
So who will ask the most stupid question at the presser then? And how many times will it be claimed it is all too confusing? And how many foreign holiday questions?
Foreign holiday questions now would actually be reasonable, as such a roadmap opens up pretty much every topic to needing detail added through questioning.
Air New Zealand says it will trial a new digital health pass designed to help streamline safe international travel.
The Travel Pass app, developed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), will store Covid test results and vaccination details in one place that can be shared among airlines and border control agencies. The trial will start in April with flights between Auckland and the Australian city of Sydney.
I watched a bit of Parliament earlier, I’ve pretty much not watched broadcast telly or the news since the Nov lockdown was announced (try it, its great).
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
So who will ask the most stupid question at the presser then? And how many times will it be claimed it is all too confusing? And how many foreign holiday questions?
Hoping for a question about the slow vaccination rates in recent days, I’m not worried yet but it needs clarifying.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
I’d be saying “these bloody Stalinist, nanny state lunatics have bankrupted the country, turned fiat into toilet paper, taken away ancient liberties with no reasoned evidence as to why and don’t seem to even care about the cascade of mental illness they’ve unleashed, such is their fixation on a single, likely undeliverable policy goal”.
I’d then say, what do Her Maj’s Oppositon have to say? Much the same. But at least the leader has banter, an exciting sex life and an amusing hairline with a mind of its own.
Starmer is not as clever as he looks if he thinks he’ll win Downing St in 3 years by harping on about locking down / not locking down in Spring 2020. He needs to pivot to cheerful optimism and fast or he’s done for.
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear post vaccines but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
Absolutely. It's a clear, coherent way out of lockdown back to normality. Prudent, relatively slow and with appropriate caveats but it is enough for people to start planning positively for the future.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Errr .... Labour are in power. They are in power in Wales.
Labour seem to have made very similar mistakes.
In fairness, with half a dozen exceptions, everyone the world over has made similar mistakes. Some have made even more truly impressive and egregious mistakes (Sweden) but few people have a perfect track record.
What is frustrating with this lot is they keep making the same mistakes.
Oh, I agree absolutely.
There will be interesting comparative studies (by professional statisticians) over the next few years. Without doing too much work, though, it looks as no-one in Western Europe has done well.
I have some sympathy for the Swedish scientists. They tried a novel approach, and it went badly wrong.
But, it wasn't obviously a priori a stupid thing to do (though perhaps they persevered a bit too long after it was clear it had failed)
So who will ask the most stupid question at the presser then? And how many times will it be claimed it is all too confusing? And how many foreign holiday questions?
Hoping for a question about the slow vaccination rates in recent days, I’m not worried yet but it needs clarifying.
I think that is a very good question. I think I want to know more information about what they think can be the achievable daily rate over the next few weeks and months. 500k / day will be very disappointing.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
Just to clarify, only when we get to Step 3 can we just start travelling around, because we fancy a trip to see mates across the country, right?
Legally it will actually be Step 1 to see 1 mate outdoors anywhere in England (not sure if UK?). "People should continue to minimise travel" but that sounds like guidance not law.
If its mates plural and a total of 3 or more households, then yes I think its Step 3.
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
The slaying of Zero Covid is indeed great to see. Just watched an excellent interview with Professor Sir John Bell where he colourfully described it as a “crackpot idea, no idea where it came from, what planet were people on if they thought they could remove all cases on Covid from the eight billion human beings on Earth?”
yes and the likes of New Zealand are going to have to do some thinking here because like anyone who has a pristine house needs to accept it will become messy when you actually want to live and really enjoy it. Zero covid is a serious fetish that should be shot down in flames by any normal human
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
The slaying of Zero Covid is indeed great to see. Just watched an excellent interview with Professor Sir John Bell where he colourfully described it as a “crackpot idea, no idea where it came from, what planet were people on if they thought they could remove all cases on Covid from the eight billion human beings on Earth?”
yes and the likes of New Zealand are going to have to do some thinking here because like anyone who has a pristine house needs to accept it will become messy when you actually want to live and really enjoy it. Zero covid is a serious fetish that should be shot down in flames by any normal human
True. Shocking that some scientists were seriously advocating it.
Just to clarify, only when we get to Step 3 can we just start travelling around, because we fancy a trip to see mates across the country, right?
Legally it will actually be Step 1 to see 1 mate outdoors anywhere in England (not sure if UK?). "People should continue to minimise travel" but that sounds like guidance not law.
If its mates plural and a total of 3 or more households, then yes I think its Step 3.
I suspect that over here in NI we will track this plan to a large degree. Hopefully the gyms open in April, Its fair to say that, for me at least, that's been a pain in the rear...my increasingly fat rear.
I do, however, still wonder about the schools being opened as suggested, though the anecdotal evidence is that there is a set of people who kept their kids at home back in March/April 20 that seem to now be key workers this time around and sending their kids to school. The numbers still attending appears up. Everything I've heard here suggests schools are problem. Maybe spring & summer weather with open windows (I am sure I heard a member of Sage a week or so back suggest that Covid might be seen as a seasonal disease) will help matters.
I watched a bit of Parliament earlier, I’ve pretty much not watched broadcast telly or the news since the Nov lockdown was announced (try it, its great).
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
People like their PM's to not consistently have a face like a slapped arse.
And lo, my political career ends before it even begins.
So who will ask the most stupid question at the presser then? And how many times will it be claimed it is all too confusing? And how many foreign holiday questions?
Hoping for a question about the slow vaccination rates in recent days, I’m not worried yet but it needs clarifying.
I think that is a very good question. I think I want to know more information about what they think can be the achievable daily rate over the next few weeks and months. 500k / day will be very disappointing.
Indeed. As I think you were saying earlier they must have some intel on new supply (well I bloody well hope so!).
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
He's frustrated he can't hang Covid-19 around Boris's neck to bring him down, because of his obsession with his original leading role in Brexit.
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
The slaying of Zero Covid is indeed great to see. Just watched an excellent interview with Professor Sir John Bell where he colourfully described it as a “crackpot idea, no idea where it came from, what planet were people on if they thought they could remove all cases on Covid from the eight billion human beings on Earth?”
yes and the likes of New Zealand are going to have to do some thinking here because like anyone who has a pristine house needs to accept it will become messy when you actually want to live and really enjoy it. Zero covid is a serious fetish that should be shot down in flames by any normal human
True. Shocking that some scientists were seriously advocating it.
It was mainly Devi Sridhar. She is trained as an anthropologist.
I suspect that over here in NI we will track this plan to a large degree. Hopefully the gyms open in April, Its fair to say that, for me at least, that's been a pain in the rear...my increasingly fat rear.
I do, however, still wonder about the schools being opened as suggested, though the anecdotal evidence is that there is a set of people who kept their kids at home back in March/April 20 that seem to now be key workers this time around and sending their kids to school. The numbers still attending appears up. Everything I've heard here suggests schools are problem. Maybe spring & summer weather with open windows (I am sure I heard a member of Sage a week or so back suggest that Covid might be seen as a seasonal disease) will help matters.
If we have a March like last year, it will help enormously.
If we have a normal March where we have to keep them mewed up, indoors, for seven hours, wearing masks, one day in three there will be schools actually destroyed by rioting children.
(Edit - there was such a case in Staffordshire, by the way, but it was a while ago now.)
Watching the excellent History of the 80s programme last night on Sky Arts I cam to realise just what an exceptional scientist Fauci is. He was in charge of the US Government research and response to the Aids epidemic in the mid 80s. There were huge protests including some violence from the gay community who thought the Government weren't doing enough to combat the disease. They were right, but that was not for lack of effort but lack of understanding.
When one protest threatened to become violent in front of the labs where Fauci was working he defused the situation by inviting the leaders in - against the advice of the police - listening to what they had to say and what they knew about the disease and then bringing them inside to work with the scientists and changed the whole direction of research.
Real scientists change their approach when the evidence changes. Fauci is a great scientist.
Which is why he changed his advice on mask-wearing, for which he is still vilified. Despite the fact that both his original position, and his changed position, were both based on best available scientific evidence at the time.
Full disclosure - before the US government issued any advice on mask-wearing, I was advising those asking me not to wear them, on the basis of the same evidence the US government cited when it finally announced advice. It was largely due to your* posting of new evidence on this site (and my own web searching for new papers) that led me to change my own position on mask-wearing before the CDC changed its advice.
One interesting stat from the report, the UK has now done over 80 million PCR tests.
What percentage got the results back within 24 hours? What percentage of those positive actually isolated?
Bet they dont want to look into either of those metrics too closely.
You’d probably be surprised. No stories in the media about delays. Most likely pretty quick turn round now, esp as cases have dropped.
Yes now it will be better, but when it was needed in December and January it couldnt cope. December was an obvious point where demand would increase with university students travelling home and Xmas celebrations yet the head of testing in November repeatedly said it was not her job to forecast demand for testing when the select committee encouraged her to do so.
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
The slaying of Zero Covid is indeed great to see. Just watched an excellent interview with Professor Sir John Bell where he colourfully described it as a “crackpot idea, no idea where it came from, what planet were people on if they thought they could remove all cases on Covid from the eight billion human beings on Earth?”
yes and the likes of New Zealand are going to have to do some thinking here because like anyone who has a pristine house needs to accept it will become messy when you actually want to live and really enjoy it. Zero covid is a serious fetish that should be shot down in flames by any normal human
True. Shocking that some scientists were seriously advocating it.
It was mainly Devi Sridhar. She is trained as an anthropologist.
Air New Zealand says it will trial a new digital health pass designed to help streamline safe international travel.
The Travel Pass app, developed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), will store Covid test results and vaccination details in one place that can be shared among airlines and border control agencies. The trial will start in April with flights between Auckland and the Australian city of Sydney.
Air New Zealand says it will trial a new digital health pass designed to help streamline safe international travel.
The Travel Pass app, developed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), will store Covid test results and vaccination details in one place that can be shared among airlines and border control agencies. The trial will start in April with flights between Auckland and the Australian city of Sydney.
Today we went over 140k nameable individuals dead. (133,077 death certificate by date to 5/2, 7,000 exactly hospital deaths by date since then).
There was one key, killer failure that made the UKs second wave so bad - in the last week of November, the failure to appreciate quite what was going on in Kent - the numbers were there to be seen - and the failure to moderate the lockdown release accordingly. The over generous initial Christmas offer, didn't help and limited how much could be scaled back, but that was secondary, the damage was already done in early December with Kent in tier 3 and Essex and London in tier 2, by waiting for the confirmation of the new strain before acting, rather than acting on the 'something' in the numbers.
Unfortunately, rapid vaccination compared with Europe and our likely faster downswing, although welcome and a psychological boon, will be a lesser influence in overall assessment than people believe. We will save lives here, but Europe will, is, downswinging and will have the summer to play catch up on that downswing.
Yes, people still don't grasp how absolutely appalling the second wave has been. The absolute botching of the response to case and death rises in SEPTEMBER, never mind November is a key topic for the Truth and Reconciliation comission.
Which country will the T&R commission be holding up as best practice? that'll be an interesting one.
That's not the point of a t&r commission. The point is to find out what decisions were made, when they were made and more importantly why they were made so that the next time there is a pandemic the same mistakes are not repeated.
It is not a dick measuring contest. Nor a sop to make people feel better because other countries did badly.
It is an internal process.
It is still intended to find Government witches to burn.
Just be honest.
Ah so you are willing to let another hundred and forty thousand people die just so long as it doesn't hurt a Conservative Minister's feelings.
Glad we've got your position clear.
There is nothing government supporters will not excuse. But they’d prefer not to have to make the effort.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
Your analysis of the government's mistakes rests upon your belief that you can use lockdown to turn up or turn down COVID like you would your central heating.
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
He's frustrated he can't hang Covid-19 around Boris's neck to bring him down, because of his obsession with his original leading role in Brexit.
It really is that simple.
The obsession with Brexit is entirely among Leavers. Boris Johnson has made a series of unforgivable mistakes on Covid-19. But Leavers are willing to overlook them all because of Brexit.
There is literally nothing Leavers will not excuse, up to and including tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
This has important betting implications. (It also means the country will continue its long term decline under atrocious governance, but that’s a side note really.)
Can someone link me to Sturgeon's Zero-Covid strategy?
I see a lot of people saying she has one but no one linking to it. And my googling has only turned up a r day old news story saying some scientists have urged her to adopt a. Zero - covid strategy. Which suggests she hasn't.
AFAIK that's true, and Jacinda Ardern has never proposed zero Covid either. Because it's an idea that's both desirable and achievable in theory, but is the opposite in practice. I think some of these over-zealous scientists only deal in theory, and don't think about the practicalities of their proposals. Politicians can't get away with that.
My big concern was that cases thrown up by Britain's enormous case finding industry might be used to justify eternal lock down.
Johnson signaled he doesn;t mind covid cases so long as very few are getting very ill or dying. That we have to live with this.
That was a huge relief. Lets hope he sticks at it.
We shall see, but there is cause for optimism. The main stumbling block is whether or not there is a crescendo of panic (in the media and amongst some sections of the public) when the deaths start climbing after measures are eased. That is, clearly if things were to go seriously pear-shaped and there was another January-style disaster then the Government would be forced to backpedal towards lockdown, but if we assume that the vaccination programme is enough to keep the death rate down to modest levels, then the public is just going to have to get used to this - just like it does with everything from the grim flu stats each Winter to road traffic fatalities.
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
Great that you remain in the sweet spot. I know some people truly feared we'd drift into semi permanent lockdown in pursuit of zero covid. It was imo not a rational fear but it was genuine (in most) and widespread. This can be laid to rest now.
The slaying of Zero Covid is indeed great to see. Just watched an excellent interview with Professor Sir John Bell where he colourfully described it as a “crackpot idea, no idea where it came from, what planet were people on if they thought they could remove all cases on Covid from the eight billion human beings on Earth?”
yes and the likes of New Zealand are going to have to do some thinking here because like anyone who has a pristine house needs to accept it will become messy when you actually want to live and really enjoy it. Zero covid is a serious fetish that should be shot down in flames by any normal human
Exactly, the Hawaii approach looks good to me, vaccine passport and a rapid test on entry. If anyone has a PCR confirmed positive then the whole plane quarantines and is let out after negative tests. Only for countries that have got a very high infection rate too. For somewhere like Israel or the US which will be most of the way through their vaccine programmes when we're ready to open up we can basically just call it.
I think it's all too slow, because of the impact on mental health and the economy. Boris was obviously scarred by his experience last year, so he's making the obvious mistake this year. I'd have three weeks not five between each phase, and merge phases 2 and 3 and 4 and 5. Still, at least critics in the party have something to shoot at now.
I imagine the government will implement Phase 1 and maybe 2 as planned, but I think after that, unless of course there's a massive spike in cases, the pressure to open up will grow and they'll have to revise the remainder of the timetable.
Also, as others have noticed, people are more and more ignoring the restrictions they don't like anyway. And as the weather gets better, that'll only increase.
Yes, I think phases 3-5 might actually come sooner if the vaccine programme is going well and COVID hospitalisations have reached double figures per day.
I hope so, but the phrase "No earlier than..." seems to indicate otherwise.
But when hospitals are empty next month (numbers going down in England at about 600-700 per day) and hospitalisations in double figures (numbers going down by about 50-70 per day) it's going to be very difficult for the PM to resist the backbenchers calling for a faster unlockdown timetable, especially bringing forwards hospitality to the beginning of May to make the first bank holiday weekend.
Under promise, over deliver.
I think he struck a clever balance today. For the cautious it is an initially cautious, slow lifting of lockdown. For the sceptics there's a complete lifting of restrictions by June. It's an initially slower but ultimately faster lifting of restrictions than I'd expected. Nobody gets exactly what they want, but there's something for everyone.
If the issue is in a few weeks time events are better than planned, that's a good problem to have.
That is the story I am referring to. If she actually had a zero covid policy why would people be urging her to adopt one?
Sturgeon and Sridhar have both mentioned “zero COVID” several times - the Nat Onal was crowing about how Scotland’s zero COVID approach was superior to England’s. I guess we’ll see tomorrow what her long term plan is.
If she goes for zero Covid she can expect not to be in power after May 6th.
Just to clarify, only when we get to Step 3 can we just start travelling around, because we fancy a trip to see mates across the country, right?
Legally it will actually be Step 1 to see 1 mate outdoors anywhere in England (not sure if UK?). "People should continue to minimise travel" but that sounds like guidance not law.
If its mates plural and a total of 3 or more households, then yes I think its Step 3.
As in Step 1 (b) 29 March not Step 1 (a) 8 March.
Your clarification is probably correct, I am not sure from reading the document though. In Step 1 (a) (Why couldnt we just have five steps....) it says travel abroad for holidays will still not be permitted which kind of suggests travel internally for a permitted recreational activity might be ok?
Air New Zealand says it will trial a new digital health pass designed to help streamline safe international travel.
The Travel Pass app, developed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), will store Covid test results and vaccination details in one place that can be shared among airlines and border control agencies. The trial will start in April with flights between Auckland and the Australian city of Sydney.
That is the story I am referring to. If she actually had a zero covid policy why would people be urging her to adopt one?
Sturgeon and Sridhar have both mentioned “zero COVID” several times - the Nat Onal was crowing about how Scotland’s zero COVID approach was superior to England’s. I guess we’ll see tomorrow what her long term plan is.
If she goes for zero Covid she can expect not to be in power after May 6th.
Colour me skeptical she could do anything to prevent that.
I suspect that over here in NI we will track this plan to a large degree. Hopefully the gyms open in April, Its fair to say that, for me at least, that's been a pain in the rear...my increasingly fat rear.
I do, however, still wonder about the schools being opened as suggested, though the anecdotal evidence is that there is a set of people who kept their kids at home back in March/April 20 that seem to now be key workers this time around and sending their kids to school. The numbers still attending appears up. Everything I've heard here suggests schools are problem. Maybe spring & summer weather with open windows (I am sure I heard a member of Sage a week or so back suggest that Covid might be seen as a seasonal disease) will help matters.
If we have a March like last year, it will help enormously.
If we have a normal March where we have to keep them mewed up, indoors, for seven hours, wearing masks, one day in three there will be schools actually destroyed by rioting children.
(Edit - there was such a case in Staffordshire, by the way, but it was a while ago now.)
Well there are kids at school in this part of the world who's parents & grandparents would have spent many a long hour wearing masks & having a good riot, though that was generally outdoor mixing and exercise back then.....
I think it's all too slow, because of the impact on mental health and the economy. Boris was obviously scarred by his experience last year, so he's making the obvious mistake this year. I'd have three weeks not five between each phase, and merge phases 2 and 3 and 4 and 5. Still, at least critics in the party have something to shoot at now.
I imagine the government will implement Phase 1 and maybe 2 as planned, but I think after that, unless of course there's a massive spike in cases, the pressure to open up will grow and they'll have to revise the remainder of the timetable.
Also, as others have noticed, people are more and more ignoring the restrictions they don't like anyway. And as the weather gets better, that'll only increase.
Yes, I think phases 3-5 might actually come sooner if the vaccine programme is going well and COVID hospitalisations have reached double figures per day.
I hope so, but the phrase "No earlier than..." seems to indicate otherwise.
But when hospitals are empty next month (numbers going down in England at about 600-700 per day) and hospitalisations in double figures (numbers going down by about 50-70 per day) it's going to be very difficult for the PM to resist the backbenchers calling for a faster unlockdown timetable, especially bringing forwards hospitality to the beginning of May to make the first bank holiday weekend.
Under promise, over deliver.
I think he struck a clever balance today. For the cautious it is an initially cautious, slow lifting of lockdown. For the sceptics there's a complete lifting of restrictions by June. It's an initially slower but ultimately faster lifting of restrictions than I'd expected. Nobody gets exactly what they want, but there's something for everyone.
If the issue is in a few weeks time events are better than planned, that's a good problem to have.
Agreed. Clever positioning today. Presser just about to start.
Air New Zealand says it will trial a new digital health pass designed to help streamline safe international travel.
The Travel Pass app, developed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), will store Covid test results and vaccination details in one place that can be shared among airlines and border control agencies. The trial will start in April with flights between Auckland and the Australian city of Sydney.
What do people without smartphones do?
The same thing people who want to travel but won't get a passport do - miss out.
And no that isn't forcing people to buy a smartphone, the line that shall not be crossed apparently. If people are providing us a service we often have to do things their way.
I think it's all too slow, because of the impact on mental health and the economy. Boris was obviously scarred by his experience last year, so he's making the obvious mistake this year. I'd have three weeks not five between each phase, and merge phases 2 and 3 and 4 and 5. Still, at least critics in the party have something to shoot at now.
I imagine the government will implement Phase 1 and maybe 2 as planned, but I think after that, unless of course there's a massive spike in cases, the pressure to open up will grow and they'll have to revise the remainder of the timetable.
Also, as others have noticed, people are more and more ignoring the restrictions they don't like anyway. And as the weather gets better, that'll only increase.
Yes, I think phases 3-5 might actually come sooner if the vaccine programme is going well and COVID hospitalisations have reached double figures per day.
I hope so, but the phrase "No earlier than..." seems to indicate otherwise.
But when hospitals are empty next month (numbers going down in England at about 600-700 per day) and hospitalisations in double figures (numbers going down by about 50-70 per day) it's going to be very difficult for the PM to resist the backbenchers calling for a faster unlockdown timetable, especially bringing forwards hospitality to the beginning of May to make the first bank holiday weekend.
I very much hope you're right, but I'm not sure that's true. The scientists, who have responsibility for preventing COVID deaths but don't really care about the damage to the wider economy or society, will always urge caution. The pitiful non-Opposition we have will always back Johnson. And the opinion polls will show that people keep favouring restrictions for everyone else, even as they ignore ones they don't like themselves. I'm not sure the backbenchers will be strong enough given to force him to go faster.
Comments
The most important thing the PM has said is that zero Covid is unviable and restrictions cannot go on forever. We can consequently have a high degree of consequence that the end of social distancing is coming. It's just a matter of time.
How the hell would we deal with a virus or bacteria that causes relative insta-death in a cruel and nasty fashion completely irrespective of age or health?
What joys await undiscovered in the deepest Congo or Amazon to released by someone doing something to or with an animal that they shouldn't.
Just be honest.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19099491.covid-scotland-scottish-government-urged-define-covid-19-elimination-strategy/
Portugal and Ireland had shockers, because they tried to have Christmas off.
But whilst most of the Northern Hemisphere has had a bad winter, the price of the government's Operation Save Christmas, followed by Operation Let's Faff About For Ten Days is plain as a pikestaff on top of that.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=gbr&areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
(Apols if I missed an explanation)
You can tell I'm just in from the daily bike ride.
Especially if its built on the post hoc ergo propter hoc argument about lockdowns that the US is now deconstructing, because of the various approaches of the various different states.
Lovely feeling although a bit chilly on the steep downhills.
The post hoc ergo propter hoc argument is being, to say the least, challenged.
That is the date international travel will be back.
Which means Lockdown 4 cannot be ruled out.
Glad we've got your position clear.
they didn't last summer.
I'm not sure deaths rising is 'nailed on'. Not descending at quite the same rate, more than possible.
There’s pretty much no chance of 10m Brits heading off for a fortnight in France or Spain this summer.
I checked the schedule earlier and there’s no way you could postpone it - there’s no breathing space in the tournament timetable.
My overriding observation. Starmer really needs to lighten up. Wear a jazzy tie. Crack a few gags. Smile even. He comes across as so sanctimonious and boring. Campaign in poetry, govern in prose and all that. I’m pretty confident now in predicting he will never be PM.
There should have been one UK-wide approach.
What percentage of those positive actually isolated?
Bet they dont want to look into either of those metrics too closely.
Can you imagine what they would be saying if Labour were in power and had produced results like these, having made the unforced errors that this government has made?
For all the crap thrown at the testing programme, it’s actually been very successful after a slow start.
I'm hopeful.
I'm also hopeful.
Not helped by Dido deciding it was not her job to predict when demand might increase for testing.
Labour seem to have made very similar mistakes.
I only mentioned the number because it demonstrates the sheer scale of the testing we do. It's quite astounding just how much testing we can perform.
When one protest threatened to become violent in front of the labs where Fauci was working he defused the situation by inviting the leaders in - against the advice of the police - listening to what they had to say and what they knew about the disease and then bringing them inside to work with the scientists and changed the whole direction of research.
Real scientists change their approach when the evidence changes. Fauci is a great scientist.
What is frustrating with this lot is they keep making the same mistakes.
Good evening, everyone.
The Travel Pass app, developed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), will store Covid test results and vaccination details in one place that can be shared among airlines and border control agencies. The trial will start in April with flights between Auckland and the Australian city of Sydney.
Blair - Smiley, "great kinda guy" jokey and optimistic.
Brown - Dour, Glum.
Cameron - Smiley, jokey, optimistic.
Milliband - Awkward.
May - Awkward.
Johnson, - Smiley, jokey, optimistic.
Corbyn - Dour, Glum. Borderline insane.
Starmer - Dour, Glum.
People like their PM's to not consistently have a face like a slapped arse.
I’d then say, what do Her Maj’s Oppositon have to say? Much the same. But at least the leader has banter, an exciting sex life and an amusing hairline with a mind of its own.
Starmer is not as clever as he looks if he thinks he’ll win Downing St in 3 years by harping on about locking down / not locking down in Spring 2020. He needs to pivot to cheerful optimism and fast or he’s done for.
There will be interesting comparative studies (by professional statisticians) over the next few years. Without doing too much work, though, it looks as no-one in Western Europe has done well.
I have some sympathy for the Swedish scientists. They tried a novel approach, and it went badly wrong.
But, it wasn't obviously a priori a stupid thing to do (though perhaps they persevered a bit too long after it was clear it had failed)
That US experience shows graphically that the relationship is much more complex than that.
If its mates plural and a total of 3 or more households, then yes I think its Step 3.
I do, however, still wonder about the schools being opened as suggested, though the anecdotal evidence is that there is a set of people who kept their kids at home back in March/April 20 that seem to now be key workers this time around and sending their kids to school. The numbers still attending appears up. Everything I've heard here suggests schools are problem. Maybe spring & summer weather with open windows (I am sure I heard a member of Sage a week or so back suggest that Covid might be seen as a seasonal disease) will help matters.
It really is that simple.
If we have a normal March where we have to keep them mewed up, indoors, for seven hours, wearing masks, one day in three there will be schools actually destroyed by rioting children.
(Edit - there was such a case in Staffordshire, by the way, but it was a while ago now.)
Full disclosure - before the US government issued any advice on mask-wearing, I was advising those asking me not to wear them, on the basis of the same evidence the US government cited when it finally announced advice. It was largely due to your* posting of new evidence on this site (and my own web searching for new papers) that led me to change my own position on mask-wearing before the CDC changed its advice.
*Nigelb
There is literally nothing Leavers will not excuse, up to and including tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
This has important betting implications. (It also means the country will continue its long term decline under atrocious governance, but that’s a side note really.)
https://beta.documentcloud.org/documents/20489883-495529065-c19-response-spring-2021
I think he struck a clever balance today. For the cautious it is an initially cautious, slow lifting of lockdown. For the sceptics there's a complete lifting of restrictions by June. It's an initially slower but ultimately faster lifting of restrictions than I'd expected. Nobody gets exactly what they want, but there's something for everyone.
If the issue is in a few weeks time events are better than planned, that's a good problem to have.
Step 2 is still "People should continue to work from home where they can, minimize domestic travel where they can."
Step 3 - still work from home.
Step 4 - Government objective is return to international travel for business and pleasure.
And no that isn't forcing people to buy a smartphone, the line that shall not be crossed apparently. If people are providing us a service we often have to do things their way.
I very much hope you're right, but I'm not sure that's true. The scientists, who have responsibility for preventing COVID deaths but don't really care about the damage to the wider economy or society, will always urge caution. The pitiful non-Opposition we have will always back Johnson. And the opinion polls will show that people keep favouring restrictions for everyone else, even as they ignore ones they don't like themselves. I'm not sure the backbenchers will be strong enough given to force him to go faster.
EDITED to insert an Oxford comma.