The number of vaccination anecdotes I'm hearing and reading in real life / PB / internet suggests a big pick up of the rate.
Brother today his wife tomorrow - both below 65
I am very very impressed
++++++++++
Report on Twitter says a GP surgery in Battersea jabbed a 52 year old with no underlying problems this week, and they are now essentially through all Priority Groups 1-9. They have no one left to stick a needle into.
So let them roll on into the 40-somethings! If they have the supply.
Daily Mail has managed to lurch from hurry up Boris get us out of this lockdown now to oh shit covid cases aren't falling fast enough in less than an afternoon.
I have seen contradictory stories on their front page running at same time...............
I've been working on a new data point for our work dashboard but I'll share some of the findings here, it's case levels to hospitalisations by age. Obviously there is a huge reliance on the testing system catching cases evenly which is why I'll move it over to the ONS data at some point, but eventually it looks at the percentage of people in the three main age categories that end up being hospitalised by an infection. I'm provisionally using a two week delay between infection and hospitalisation but may change that after consulting with someone who knows better.
Essentially I want to see what the vaccine effect is or if there even is one. So far the results are unsurprisingly a bit messy because it's a new data point and it needs some work, however, I think there is a significant effect of vaccines. What I can see is that in early Jan around 80-90% of over 85s who caught symptomatic COVID were being hospitalised for it and by by mid February that has fallen to 40% with a truly incredibly steep downwards slope, what's interesting is that there does seem to be a slowdown in this drop off over the last few days with around 40% of 85+ and around 30% of 65-84 year olds still ending up in hospital. I think that figure will continue to fall over the coming days but we may end up reaching the limit at around 10% because of vaccine refuseniks.
This, to my mind, is the first bit of truly compelling evidence that the vaccines are taking effect. I'll keep PB updated on the progress of the series periodically but I've got to automate the process first as doing it manually is very time consuming.
And that's the level of protection off a single dose primarily? Fantastic news!
But the UK is taking a gamble on pseudoscience - Macron . . .
It's a backwards looking series because someone who ends up in hospital today, got infected about 2 weeks ago and they need to have been jabbed three weeks before that for it to have a proper effect, so today's number of 40% hospitalisation rate actually relates to people who had been vaccinated up to January 10th which around 2.5m first jabs of which at least half are healthcare workers under 85. The actual turning date on the hospitalisation rate is actually just around a month after the first jabs started happening so around a week after the first batch of people got immunity. It tracks almost perfectly so far.
Daily Mail has managed to lurch from hurry up Boris get us out of this lockdown now to oh shit covid cases aren't falling fast enough in less than an afternoon.
We, not of the Tory persuasion have been trying to tell you for decades what a vile rag the Daily Mail is. Did you listen?
I've been working on a new data point for our work dashboard but I'll share some of the findings here, it's case levels to hospitalisations by age. Obviously there is a huge reliance on the testing system catching cases evenly which is why I'll move it over to the ONS data at some point, but eventually it looks at the percentage of people in the three main age categories that end up being hospitalised by an infection. I'm provisionally using a two week delay between infection and hospitalisation but may change that after consulting with someone who knows better.
Essentially I want to see what the vaccine effect is or if there even is one. So far the results are unsurprisingly a bit messy because it's a new data point and it needs some work, however, I think there is a significant effect of vaccines. What I can see is that in early Jan around 80-90% of over 85s who caught symptomatic COVID were being hospitalised for it and by by mid February that has fallen to 40% with a truly incredibly steep downwards slope, what's interesting is that there does seem to be a slowdown in this drop off over the last few days with around 40% of 85+ and around 30% of 65-84 year olds still ending up in hospital. I think that figure will continue to fall over the coming days but we may end up reaching the limit at around 10% because of vaccine refuseniks.
This, to my mind, is the first bit of truly compelling evidence that the vaccines are taking effect. I'll keep PB updated on the progress of the series periodically but I've got to automate the process first as doing it manually is very time consuming.
Great work, and great news. That's exactly the sort of data that needs to be used to weight the case data that feeds into reopening decisions.
Report on Twitter says a GP surgery in Battersea jabbed a 52 year old with no underlying problems this week, and they are now essentially through all Priority Groups 1-9. They have no one left to stick a needle into.
So let them roll on into the 40-somethings! If they have the supply.
I've been working on a new data point for our work dashboard but I'll share some of the findings here, it's case levels to hospitalisations by age. Obviously there is a huge reliance on the testing system catching cases evenly which is why I'll move it over to the ONS data at some point, but eventually it looks at the percentage of people in the three main age categories that end up being hospitalised by an infection. I'm provisionally using a two week delay between infection and hospitalisation but may change that after consulting with someone who knows better.
Essentially I want to see what the vaccine effect is or if there even is one. So far the results are unsurprisingly a bit messy because it's a new data point and it needs some work, however, I think there is a significant effect of vaccines. What I can see is that in early Jan around 80-90% of over 85s who caught symptomatic COVID were being hospitalised for it and by by mid February that has fallen to 40% with a truly incredibly steep downwards slope, what's interesting is that there does seem to be a slowdown in this drop off over the last few days with around 40% of 85+ and around 30% of 65-84 year olds still ending up in hospital. I think that figure will continue to fall over the coming days but we may end up reaching the limit at around 10% because of vaccine refuseniks.
This, to my mind, is the first bit of truly compelling evidence that the vaccines are taking effect. I'll keep PB updated on the progress of the series periodically but I've got to automate the process first as doing it manually is very time consuming.
Great work, and great news. That's exactly the sort of data that needs to be used to weight the case data that feeds into reopening decisions.
I actually got the idea from one of our earlier discussions! I figured there must be a way to tell from the data available and it actually looks like there is.
Spring: c. 1st March to c. 15th May Summer: c. 15th May to c. 10th Sep Autumn: c. 10th Sep to c. 10th Nov Winter: c. 10th Nov to c. 28th/29th Feb
I pretty much 100% agree with this.
Guy Fawkes is autumn, but Remembrance Sunday is winter.
Nah. Not having it. November is quintessential autumn. When most of the leaves drop off.
Otherwise you have to move mid-February into spring. And, statistically, the second and third weeks of February average the coldest weeks of the year. And if that ain't winter....
Only if you insist on parity of duration. In fact there is more of winter than of other seasons.
Yep. Rather than content itself with a routine (and imo more than adequate) three months it tries to grab a bit of Autumn and Spring - usually with some success.
I gave serious consideration to reading this header, but I always find it a bit off-putting when the author has seen fit to use the quotation function to highlight what must be getting on for half of the entire piece. Read THIS**********BIT guys. So I think I'm going to wait for the TV adaptation.
Report on Twitter says a GP surgery in Battersea jabbed a 52 year old with no underlying problems this week, and they are now essentially through all Priority Groups 1-9. They have no one left to stick a needle into.
So let them roll on into the 40-somethings! If they have the supply.
How many antivaxxers does he have though.
Probably not many in Battersea! I expect it's just got a generally younger age profile being in London.
Report on Twitter says a GP surgery in Battersea jabbed a 52 year old with no underlying problems this week, and they are now essentially through all Priority Groups 1-9. They have no one left to stick a needle into.
So let them roll on into the 40-somethings! If they have the supply.
How many antivaxxers does he have though.
Given that the London population is skewed towards the young and the BAME (both more likely to be anti-vax) quite a few I should think. Hence these reports of vaccinators running out of deltoids.
The report in the FT today about many employers (and travel companies etc) requiring vaccine certs will eventually concentrate minds.
Spring: c. 1st March to c. 15th May Summer: c. 15th May to c. 10th Sep Autumn: c. 10th Sep to c. 10th Nov Winter: c. 10th Nov to c. 28th/29th Feb
I pretty much 100% agree with this.
Guy Fawkes is autumn, but Remembrance Sunday is winter.
Nah. Not having it. November is quintessential autumn. When most of the leaves drop off.
Otherwise you have to move mid-February into spring. And, statistically, the second and third weeks of February average the coldest weeks of the year. And if that ain't winter....
Only if you insist on parity of duration. In fact there is more of winter than of other seasons.
How about autumn - starts two days before August Bank Holiday (when the weather turns to shit) and ends the day before you have your first Christmas meal (with all the trimmings)?
Autumn is September and October. At the other end, winter steals so much of spring that white Easters outnumber white Christmases. Summer is illusory.
Given that Easter is usually in April I'm very doubtful about that oft repeated snow claim.
A google search finds this claim
"Are you still dreaming of a white Christmas, asks Anthony Reuben.
If so, you probably don't want to know this nugget from Mark Wilson, a meteorologist at the Met Office: "There's a higher chance of getting snow over Easter in the UK than there is at Christmas."
He says that between 1981 and 2010 there were an average of 3.9 days with sleet or snow falling in the UK in December, compared with 4.2 days in March.
Now I'm not 100% sure I believe this because presumably snow is more likely to fall at the end of December when Christmas is and at the beginning of March, which would generally miss Easter, but that's what the Met Office says. The point is that snow is pretty unlikely at either festival."
The objection is spot on. So probably a myth. OTOH Christmas seems to be just before the sweet spot, white New Years Days are def far more common, so probably not a lot in it.
Report on Twitter says a GP surgery in Battersea jabbed a 52 year old with no underlying problems this week, and they are now essentially through all Priority Groups 1-9. They have no one left to stick a needle into.
So let them roll on into the 40-somethings! If they have the supply.
As we are seeing, it's very uneven across London and, I suspect, across the country. Clearly, some areas have done very well and reached everyone required but in others there's still a lot of people to contact let alone vaccinate.
There now needs to be a re-direction of resources from the "good" areas to the "not so good areas" as it would look ridiculous to be vaccinating 30-40 year olds in one area while in another area there are people over 60 yet to receive an appointment let alone any vaccine.
In the same way, opening up the economy and society is going to be problematic if there are these anomalies from area to area or we'll have to bring back the Tiers (and what fun they were).
The other aspect is those areas with large numbers vaccinated are going to be frustrated as restrictions remain in place while other areas "catch up" with their vaccinations.
Daily Mail has managed to lurch from hurry up Boris get us out of this lockdown now to oh shit covid cases aren't falling fast enough in less than an afternoon.
We, not of the Tory persuasion have been trying to tell you for decades what a vile rag the Daily Mail is. Did you listen?
Do let us know which newspapers are completely trustworthy
I gave serious consideration to reading this header, but I always find it a bit off-putting when the author has seen fit to use the quotation function to highlight what must be getting on for half of the entire piece. Read THIS**********BIT guys. So I think I'm going to wait for the TV adaptation.
Daily Mail has managed to lurch from hurry up Boris get us out of this lockdown now to oh shit covid cases aren't falling fast enough in less than an afternoon.
Impressive, I think their previous record was two hours for Murder Tuesday to Set Us Free.
Daily Mail has managed to lurch from hurry up Boris get us out of this lockdown now to oh shit covid cases aren't falling fast enough in less than an afternoon.
We, not of the Tory persuasion have been trying to tell you for decades what a vile rag the Daily Mail is. Did you listen?
Do let us know which newspapers are completely trustworthy
The Morning Star and the Socialist Worker... obviously.
Report on Twitter says a GP surgery in Battersea jabbed a 52 year old with no underlying problems this week, and they are now essentially through all Priority Groups 1-9. They have no one left to stick a needle into.
So let them roll on into the 40-somethings! If they have the supply.
How many antivaxxers does he have though.
Probably not many in Battersea! I expect it's just got a generally younger age profile being in London.
Battersea has a significant BAME population though, albeit less than Lambeth and Tooting.
Don't they take into account the number of potential recipients when supplying the vaccines ? So Battersea would get given less currently than Bexley or Bromley because of the age profile.
FPT - I've been working the last few hours, and have only just caught up with all the comments on the previous thread.
I didn't expect that sort of reaction, and was touched. You always half-expect to be mocked or told to man-up.
It's definitely helped, particularly when I read others have had similar experiences too.
Thank you.
I think everyone is in the same boat - I'm definitely not myself but my wife is in a worse state than I am which definitely isn't helping as I'm a flattish meh and she is oscillating between good and very down.
I gave serious consideration to reading this header, but I always find it a bit off-putting when the author has seen fit to use the quotation function to highlight what must be getting on for half of the entire piece. Read THIS**********BIT guys. So I think I'm going to wait for the TV adaptation.
That's part of the editors putting it up on the site and I think it breaks them up well.
My piece yesterday I didn't indent any of it but a section was indented when it was published. I have no objection to that, it works nicely. TSE does a good job with that. 👍
Daily Mail has managed to lurch from hurry up Boris get us out of this lockdown now to oh shit covid cases aren't falling fast enough in less than an afternoon.
Impressive, I think their previous record was two hours for Murder Tuesday to Set Us Free.
A last comment from me on seasons: my father was a farmer and the bit of rhyme "half of the straw and half of the hay for half of the winter after Candlemas day" seems to fit quite nicely.
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Dare I suggest that the four seasons don't need to be of roughly equal length?
I'd suggest: Summer late May to early Sept Autumn Mid Sept to mid Nov Winter late Nov to Feb Spring March to early May
Things start sucking on November 1, without fail. They cease to suck when spring comes, and that for practical purposes varies. It's when it warms up and the grass starts growing, which is sometimes March 1 and sometimes March 20 and sometimes other dates before, between or after those. So any fixed date is merely a guideline and not worth arguing about. Spring is over when the hawthorn blossom is over (end May, usually) and autumn is the period between picking the first and the last apple.
I think Bonfire Night is the final autumnal event.
After that its winter.
Feast of St Martin on November 11th - Martinmas - was at one time traditionally the start of winter.
Interesting I didn't know that. Matches my thought that Remembrance Sunday is the start of winter.
By that, I mean I quickly scrolled down to see who wrote this and then moved on to more interesting things.
That's one view - it's not mine.
Thank you, @AlastairMeeks for a superb contribution and a magnificent riposte to those on the Government side who, as you say, seem more interested in shutting down views they don't like rather than any genuine championing of free speech.
Dowden, who I suspect is angling for a leadership challenge one day, is playing to his gallery here. He has the right, through his appointment by the Prime Minister. to be the Culture Secretary but he doesn't get to define what is or isn't history and what interpretations or arguments should be used in trying to explain history.
It's been my experience both Left and Right are equally keen on centralisation and control - both want to shape society to their own mistaken culture and mores and both are happy to use the levers of power to introduce or enforce that control. If I were being cynical, I'd argue both were terrified of the prospect of people thinking for themselves.
Mr Meeks is outstanding. I've not agreed with him much at any time, but I really want to hear what he says.
I've yet to hear a good argument why somebody arriving from New Zealand or Taiwan should be imprisoned for ten days without charge or trial at extortionate expense.
On topic, I will only comment on this briefly to say that concern over free speech at universities stretches back several years.
Jo Johnson, as Minister for Universities and Science, said there was a creeping culture of censorship back in 2017. Sam Gyimah (now Lib Dem) who succeeded him as universities minister echoed this into 2018, and Harriet Harman (Labour) also warned there was a problem of inhibition of free speech at universities, and investigated through her chairing of Parliament's Joint Committee on Human Rights. She put the emphasis on university bureaucracy, fear of controversy, and muddy guidelines:
So I don't think this is a partisan Conservative thing, and it's definitely not a "Leave" thing. Fundamentally, I think it boils down to a tension (partly generational; partly political) between those who prioritise emotional safety versus those who prioritise robust debate.
Most pass without incident - I don't think there's ever been a problem with a Brexit debate, for example - but there are definitely flashpoints on Israel, transgender issues, abortion, 'imperial' history and racial justice issues. And, yes, some in student unions do it to try to score wins against big names on their CVs for future political careers.
There's an immediate issue with no-platforming, sure, that should be clarified through policy, but a bigger issue is the "hidden" impact: a lot of it is threats to ban, rather than actual bans, but that still deters many speakers from bothering or accepting, and so dilutes the ability of students to hear and discuss different points of view. It can also lead to self-censorship as people err on the side of caution with respect to debate, because they aren't sure of the boundaries and fear they can't be discussed, or simply don't fancy the hassle, so I do think it's helpful to clarify the limits, and the rules of engagement.
We don't want what we've seen in parts of America to happen here. So I think it's an appropriate issue for the Government to engage upon, and I welcome it.
Mr Meeks is outstanding. I've not agreed with him much at any time, but I really want to hear what he says.
I've yet to hear a good argument why somebody arriving from New Zealand or Taiwan should be imprisoned for ten days without charge or trial at extortionate expense.
But maybe I don't know anybody from the 72%?
Quarantine isn't imprisonment. Anyone from NZ who doesn't want to go through quarantine can stay in NZ.
And since there's no direct flights from NZ to the UK so anyone flying from NZ would have interacted with people in the rest of the world on their flight, let alone in airports, it's a rather odd argument to make.
Mr Meeks is outstanding. I've not agreed with him much at any time, but I really want to hear what he says.
I've yet to hear a good argument why somebody arriving from New Zealand or Taiwan should be imprisoned for ten days without charge or trial at extortionate expense.
But maybe I don't know anybody from the 72%?
I guess I'd underestimated Mr Meeks' responsibilities.
Having referred to the uptick of cases on the Zoe app this morning, they are urgently looking at whether those contributing have been reporting vaccination reactions as COVID symptoms... turns out the survey hasn’t been distinguishing those reporting symptoms who have just had the jab (and thus may have had a reaction) and those reporting symptoms who haven’t had the jab... let’s see what they conclude...
Mr Meeks is outstanding. I've not agreed with him much at any time, but I really want to hear what he says.
I've yet to hear a good argument why somebody arriving from New Zealand or Taiwan should be imprisoned for ten days without charge or trial at extortionate expense.
That's only the case for arrivals into Scotland (and as we saw on Monday interconnecting passengers are switching from Edinburgh to Manchester...), arrivals into England only quarantine if they are from "Red List" countries.
Spring: c. 1st March to c. 15th May Summer: c. 15th May to c. 10th Sep Autumn: c. 10th Sep to c. 10th Nov Winter: c. 10th Nov to c. 28th/29th Feb
Spring: 2 Feb-11 June Summer: 11 June-29 September Autumn: 29 September - 21 December Winter: 21 December- 2 Feb
You get much better weather when spring is long and winter short. September is often a wonderful month so belongs to summer. Winter is confined to the 40 days of Christmas (no dry January if Christmas lasts 40 days, an ancient custom). Spring starts with crocuses. Simples. Works every time.
I gave serious consideration to reading this header, but I always find it a bit off-putting when the author has seen fit to use the quotation function to highlight what must be getting on for half of the entire piece. Read THIS**********BIT guys. So I think I'm going to wait for the TV adaptation.
That was me, not Alastair.
Thanks for the info - I see Phillip downthread thinks this is a good idea - personally I don't think it adds anything.
The "death of free speach at University" has been a thing as long as Universities and old people who previously went to university have existed.
I'm sure if you read the missives of the 1600s you'd see old people complain that their ideas were being rejected by the youth of today.
Certainly I can find you letters to the editor from the 1960s lamenting the death of free speech at university.
The "Pessimist archive" twitter account is a good source of every thing that is old is new style complaints about modern life from the turn of the 20th century.
Err, that would be civil servants complaining that the post went to someone unelected rather than an unelected civil servant?
He's taken on most of Gove's responsibilities, an elected politician.
What's Gove doing then?
But it's been common in the past that people have been appointed a Lord to deal with areas in their expertise.
This maybe the harbinger of a cabinet reshuffle.
There has been talk of Gove going to Health or Education.
Personally I'd love to see him back at Justice, those 14 months he did there was the signs of some rather brilliant thinking and policies, rather than the hang them and flog them brigade, with the exception of Ken Clarke, seem to the type of Tory Justice Secretaries picked.
I gave serious consideration to reading this header, but I always find it a bit off-putting when the author has seen fit to use the quotation function to highlight what must be getting on for half of the entire piece. Read THIS**********BIT guys. So I think I'm going to wait for the TV adaptation.
That was me, not Alastair.
Thanks for the info - I see Phillip downthread thinks this is a good idea - personally I don't think it adds anything.
It's a stylistic choice I like, I try and avoid large chunks of unbroken text on the screen, sometimes I use block quotations, sometimes I use italics, sometimes I used bold text, or sometimes I use a mixture of three.
Spring: c. 1st March to c. 15th May Summer: c. 15th May to c. 10th Sep Autumn: c. 10th Sep to c. 10th Nov Winter: c. 10th Nov to c. 28th/29th Feb
Spring: 2 Feb-11 June Summer: 11 June-29 September Autumn: 29 September - 21 December Winter: 21 December- 2 Feb
You get much better weather when spring is long and winter short. September is often a wonderful month so belongs to summer. Winter is confined to the 40 days of Christmas (no dry January if Christmas lasts 40 days, an ancient custom). Spring starts with crocuses. Simples. Works every time.
This is an astute comment and thread. Culture wars, while divisive and grim, are a useful political trick. But keep your enemy vague and undefined. Otherwise you end up looking silly.
I mean... the National Trust is undermining civilisation as we know it?
Very interesting article as always from Mr Meeks. As always he makes much of his strong points. He assumes that the intention of the government is not about free speech but about something else, and is over rapidly dismissive of Matthew Goodwin's actual examples.
I gave serious consideration to reading this header, but I always find it a bit off-putting when the author has seen fit to use the quotation function to highlight what must be getting on for half of the entire piece. Read THIS**********BIT guys. So I think I'm going to wait for the TV adaptation.
That was me, not Alastair.
Thanks for the info - I see Phillip downthread thinks this is a good idea - personally I don't think it adds anything.
It's a stylistic choice I like, I try and avoid large chunks of unbroken text on the screen, sometimes I use block quotations, sometimes I use italics, sometimes I used bold text, or sometimes I use a mixture of three.
And breaking it up with a nob joke always helps as well ☺️.
Err, that would be civil servants complaining that the post went to someone unelected rather than an unelected civil servant?
He's taken on most of Gove's responsibilities, an elected politician.
What's Gove doing then?
But it's been common in the past that people have been appointed a Lord to deal with areas in their expertise.
This maybe the harbinger of a cabinet reshuffle.
There has been talk of Gove going to Health or Education.
Personally I'd love to see him back at Justice, those 14 months he did there was the signs of some rather brilliant thinking and policies, rather than the hang them and flog them brigade, with the exception of Ken Clarke, seem to the type of Tory Justice Secretaries picked.
A Cabinet reshuffle? But surely, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"
Displacing Gove, as I understand it. Gove is an odious turd, but he is a politician who somewhat understands the issues. Frost couldn't run a whelk stall. I speak metaphorically of course, as Frost has single-handedly destroyed the entire whelk industry.
Err, that would be civil servants complaining that the post went to someone unelected rather than an unelected civil servant?
He's taken on most of Gove's responsibilities, an elected politician.
What's Gove doing then?
But it's been common in the past that people have been appointed a Lord to deal with areas in their expertise.
This maybe the harbinger of a cabinet reshuffle.
There has been talk of Gove going to Health or Education.
Personally I'd love to see him back at Justice, those 14 months he did there was the signs of some rather brilliant thinking and policies, rather than the hang them and flog them brigade, with the exception of Ken Clarke, seem to the type of Tory Justice Secretaries picked.
For over a month now we have consistently seen weekly falls of 20 to 30% in cases. The last 2 days give cause for concern as they are the first days where the fall was less than 15% (other than a one day anomaly a month ago) and in the case of today just -2.3%. Tomorrow's numbers are going to be revealing as to whether it is an anomaly or the downward trend starting to reverse. 3 days in a row would be too much to be a coincidence. Given the data today from the Zoe App I am concerned it is the latter.
Err, that would be civil servants complaining that the post went to someone unelected rather than an unelected civil servant?
He's taken on most of Gove's responsibilities, an elected politician.
What's Gove doing then?
But it's been common in the past that people have been appointed a Lord to deal with areas in their expertise.
This maybe the harbinger of a cabinet reshuffle.
There has been talk of Gove going to Health or Education.
Personally I'd love to see him back at Justice, those 14 months he did there was the signs of some rather brilliant thinking and policies, rather than the hang them and flog them brigade, with the exception of Ken Clarke, seem to the type of Tory Justice Secretaries picked.
I think Gove gets results wherever you put him.
The trouble is he doesn't take any prisoners.
I hope Ydoethur isn't here to read that. He'll need a lie down.
This Conservative majority was elected with a majority partly to ensure conservative views and values got a fair hearing, including in academia
As ever, brutally honest. This is not about protecting free speech or academics from censorship, but promoting Tory speech, or more particularly promoting provocative speech that leads to culture war, which benefits the Tories. HYUFD is the only govt supporter who will admit this, not sure if that is to his credit or not!
For over a month now we have consistently seen weekly falls of 20 to 30% in cases. The last 2 days give cause for concern as they are the first days where the fall was less than 15% (other than a one day anomaly a month ago) and in the case of today just -2.3%. Tomorrow's numbers are going to be revealing as to whether it is an anomaly or the downward trend starting to reverse. 3 days in a row would be too much to be a coincidence. Given the data today from the Zoe App I am concerned it is the latter.
Not sure we are going to start to see an increase but there are signs that where areas get to 100 per 100,000/7 days, progress thereafter is difficult.
Scotland seems to have stopped going down
Wales still doing ok national rate sub 90
London doing ok but from a higher base, now below many other areas.
I gave serious consideration to reading this header, but I always find it a bit off-putting when the author has seen fit to use the quotation function to highlight what must be getting on for half of the entire piece. Read THIS**********BIT guys. So I think I'm going to wait for the TV adaptation.
That was me, not Alastair.
Thanks for the info - I see Phillip downthread thinks this is a good idea - personally I don't think it adds anything.
It's a stylistic choice I like, I try and avoid large chunks of unbroken text on the screen, sometimes I use block quotations, sometimes I use italics, sometimes I used bold text, or sometimes I use a mixture of three.
And breaking it up with a nob joke always helps as well ☺️.
She seems to want to talk about anything except the current debate.
I think this is the Gavin Williamson fanclub at work.
Suspect she also thinks that the things she wants to restrict don't count as "entitled to free speech".
I suspect she's not a cabinet minister making up such policies, so that's irrelevant.
Suspect it might be useful if people put forward as engaging in the debate were actually engaged in addressing the debate...
I think she is. A point is made in support of the government action that we thought we had long ago said goodbye to speech censorship but it seems now to be raising its head again at unis and so must be fought. She counters this by pointing out that in the 70s, when both she and the current Education Sec grew up, many things were banned through being deemed dangerous or offensive, and she gives various examples. She is thus calling bullshit on the point being offered as essential context and rationale for the government action. That was my take on it.
First Indian female president of Oxford University students' union QUITS amid backlash after she made 'pun' about the Holocaust, posted picture of her in Malaysia with words 'Ching Chang' and said trans women are not women
Comments
I am very very impressed
++++++++++
Report on Twitter says a GP surgery in Battersea jabbed a 52 year old with no underlying problems this week, and they are now essentially through all Priority Groups 1-9. They have no one left to stick a needle into.
So let them roll on into the 40-somethings! If they have the supply.
0.02 of what?
I appreciate its scaled per x amount of people, but its 2% of what? Or 0.02% of what?
He's banned people who he doesn't mention, and he doesn't follow, from responding to his Covid tweets.
https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1362037235844083714
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1362038087870734341
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/bill-gates-synthetic-beef-meat-book-b1803088.html
So 0.019% of the 85+ group were new cases on 16th (data so far - probably some reporting delay)
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1362024329576394759?s=20
That does indicate things are pushing along quite well.
The report in the FT today about many employers (and travel companies etc) requiring vaccine certs will eventually concentrate minds.
"Are you still dreaming of a white Christmas, asks Anthony Reuben.
If so, you probably don't want to know this nugget from Mark Wilson, a meteorologist at the Met Office: "There's a higher chance of getting snow over Easter in the UK than there is at Christmas."
He says that between 1981 and 2010 there were an average of 3.9 days with sleet or snow falling in the UK in December, compared with 4.2 days in March.
Now I'm not 100% sure I believe this because presumably snow is more likely to fall at the end of December when Christmas is and at the beginning of March, which would generally miss Easter, but that's what the Met Office says. The point is that snow is pretty unlikely at either festival."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-30519215
The objection is spot on. So probably a myth. OTOH Christmas seems to be just before the sweet spot, white New Years Days are def far more common, so probably not a lot in it.
I didn't expect that sort of reaction, and was touched. You always half-expect to be mocked or told to man-up.
It's definitely helped, particularly when I read others have had similar experiences too.
Thank you.
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1362089693890940932?s=20
There now needs to be a re-direction of resources from the "good" areas to the "not so good areas" as it would look ridiculous to be vaccinating 30-40 year olds in one area while in another area there are people over 60 yet to receive an appointment let alone any vaccine.
In the same way, opening up the economy and society is going to be problematic if there are these anomalies from area to area or we'll have to bring back the Tiers (and what fun they were).
The other aspect is those areas with large numbers vaccinated are going to be frustrated as restrictions remain in place while other areas "catch up" with their vaccinations.
Don't they take into account the number of potential recipients when supplying the vaccines ? So Battersea would get given less currently than Bexley or Bromley because of the age profile.
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1362018071251148806?s=20
My piece yesterday I didn't indent any of it but a section was indented when it was published. I have no objection to that, it works nicely. TSE does a good job with that. 👍
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1362095336513273862
But it's been common in the past that people have been appointed a Lord to deal with areas in their expertise.
Summer March 1 to Nov 30
Almost Summer Dec 1 to Feb 28/29
Thank you, @AlastairMeeks for a superb contribution and a magnificent riposte to those on the Government side who, as you say, seem more interested in shutting down views they don't like rather than any genuine championing of free speech.
Dowden, who I suspect is angling for a leadership challenge one day, is playing to his gallery here. He has the right, through his appointment by the Prime Minister. to be the Culture Secretary but he doesn't get to define what is or isn't history and what interpretations or arguments should be used in trying to explain history.
It's been my experience both Left and Right are equally keen on centralisation and control - both want to shape society to their own mistaken culture and mores and both are happy to use the levers of power to introduce or enforce that control. If I were being cynical, I'd argue both were terrified of the prospect of people thinking for themselves.
But maybe I don't know anybody from the 72%?
Jo Johnson, as Minister for Universities and Science, said there was a creeping culture of censorship back in 2017. Sam Gyimah (now Lib Dem) who succeeded him as universities minister echoed this into 2018, and Harriet Harman (Labour) also warned there was a problem of inhibition of free speech at universities, and investigated through her chairing of Parliament's Joint Committee on Human Rights. She put the emphasis on university bureaucracy, fear of controversy, and muddy guidelines:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-43989236
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/dec/26/jo-johnson-universities-no-platforming-freedom-of-speech
So I don't think this is a partisan Conservative thing, and it's definitely not a "Leave" thing. Fundamentally, I think it boils down to a tension (partly generational; partly political) between those who prioritise emotional safety versus those who prioritise robust debate.
Most pass without incident - I don't think there's ever been a problem with a Brexit debate, for example - but there are definitely flashpoints on Israel, transgender issues, abortion, 'imperial' history and racial justice issues. And, yes, some in student unions do it to try to score wins against big names on their CVs for future political careers.
There's an immediate issue with no-platforming, sure, that should be clarified through policy, but a bigger issue is the "hidden" impact: a lot of it is threats to ban, rather than actual bans, but that still deters many speakers from bothering or accepting, and so dilutes the ability of students to hear and discuss different points of view. It can also lead to self-censorship as people err on the side of caution with respect to debate, because they aren't sure of the boundaries and fear they can't be discussed, or simply don't fancy the hassle, so I do think it's helpful to clarify the limits, and the rules of engagement.
We don't want what we've seen in parts of America to happen here. So I think it's an appropriate issue for the Government to engage upon, and I welcome it.
I look forward to the detail.
AstraZeneca renamed Bio-AstraZeneca in Berlin (Google translate)
https://www.welt.de/satire/article226533169/Fuer-mehr-Akzeptanz-AstraZeneca-heisst-in-Berlin-Bio-AstraZeneca.html?wtrid=socialmedia.socialflow....socialflow_twitter
And since there's no direct flights from NZ to the UK so anyone flying from NZ would have interacted with people in the rest of the world on their flight, let alone in airports, it's a rather odd argument to make.
Summer: 11 June-29 September
Autumn: 29 September - 21 December
Winter: 21 December- 2 Feb
You get much better weather when spring is long and winter short. September is often a wonderful month so belongs to summer. Winter is confined to the 40 days of Christmas (no dry January if Christmas lasts 40 days, an ancient custom). Spring starts with crocuses. Simples. Works every time.
There's no need for it to be from someone outside the UK
https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/1362098544325222400?s=20
I'm sure if you read the missives of the 1600s you'd see old people complain that their ideas were being rejected by the youth of today.
Certainly I can find you letters to the editor from the 1960s lamenting the death of free speech at university.
The "Pessimist archive" twitter account is a good source of every thing that is old is new style complaints about modern life from the turn of the 20th century.
There has been talk of Gove going to Health or Education.
Personally I'd love to see him back at Justice, those 14 months he did there was the signs of some rather brilliant thinking and policies, rather than the hang them and flog them brigade, with the exception of Ken Clarke, seem to the type of Tory Justice Secretaries picked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-aK6JnyFmk&ab_channel=MarkScawkes
I mean... the National Trust is undermining civilisation as we know it?
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1361648732433956864
This site is thought provoking.
https://www.gcacademianetwork.org/
The trouble is he doesn't take any prisoners.
“Academic politics is the most vicious and bitter form of politics, because the stakes are so low.” twas ever thus !
Anyway both my better half's parents were vaxed yesterday, and with my Mum done today that's a full set of older immediate family first doses.
Scotland seems to have stopped going down
Wales still doing ok national rate sub 90
London doing ok but from a higher base, now below many other areas.
We will know more by this weekend.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9269815/First-Indian-female-president-Oxford-University-students-union-QUITS.html