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Johnson is still trailing Starmer in the leader ratings – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Despite early quote from Edmunds about concern over Brizzle COVID,

    Prof John Edmunds, a member of the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said the UK may be “more or less free” of Covid by the end of the year.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Mango said:

    Trailing?

    Redfield Approval
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 34%
    Johnson leads by 8%

    IPSOS MORI Satisfied
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 40%
    Johnson leads by 2%

    Johnson leads in Approval/Satisfied. If people disapprove of Johnson but don't approve of Starmer and decide to vote for Lib Dems or Greens etc then that works just fine for Johnson.

    Remind me again about how we get to kick Johnson out, and how democracy is everything, and all your other shite.
    "Candygram for Mango, candygram for Mango!"

    You win the argument at a general election. Oh, and handy hint: maybe you don't want to have an anti-semite socialist making your case next time?

    Try a Beige Colour-card With a Pulse instead.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Andy_JS said:

    "Towie star James Lock claims Priti Patel 'incited hate' by slamming influencers who fled lockdown Britain as he says he has received death threats in Dubai"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9246463/Towie-star-James-Lock-claims-Priti-Patel-incited-hate-slamming-influencers-fled-lockdown.html

    Dubai takes these things very seriously, he should file a police report.

    But that’s not what he means, is it? He means that a bunch of British trolls are going for him online, for being an idiot and showing off in the middle of a pandemic.

    Oh, and anyone ‘working’ in the UAE in ‘online marketing’ has to have a licence.
    https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/uae-s-paid-social-media-influencers-will-need-licence-under-new-media-rules-1.710664
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Priti Patel has told Facebook, Twitter and Google that they have a social responsibility to remove false anti-vaccination posts.

    The home secretary said that social media companies were to blame for the lower uptake of coronavirus vaccines among ethnic minorities compared with the general population. She also called on them to proactively publicise NHS and government information on their sites to counter antivaxers."

    (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patel-tells-social-media-to-remove-antivax-posts-77ggm5tjn

    I have a lot of sympathy with the desire of the government here. But I'm also a little scared of a situation where it's OK for the government to tell companies (either new media or old) what stories they're allowed to run.
    They should do what they did in the run up to the US election, add a ‘flag’ to these posts saying that this is disputed, and pointing people at reputable sources. Then set their algorithms to downvote flagged posts and stop them going viral (sic).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Mango said:

    Trailing?

    Redfield Approval
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 34%
    Johnson leads by 8%

    IPSOS MORI Satisfied
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 40%
    Johnson leads by 2%

    Johnson leads in Approval/Satisfied. If people disapprove of Johnson but don't approve of Starmer and decide to vote for Lib Dems or Greens etc then that works just fine for Johnson.

    Remind me again about how we get to kick Johnson out, and how democracy is everything, and all your other shite.
    It isn’t shite, it’s the very basis of democracy, that we get to elect those who make the rules.

    There will be an election held in due course, where we can all vote to elect a new Parliament.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Mango said:

    Trailing?

    Redfield Approval
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 34%
    Johnson leads by 8%

    IPSOS MORI Satisfied
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 40%
    Johnson leads by 2%

    Johnson leads in Approval/Satisfied. If people disapprove of Johnson but don't approve of Starmer and decide to vote for Lib Dems or Greens etc then that works just fine for Johnson.

    Remind me again about how we get to kick Johnson out, and how democracy is everything, and all your other shite.
    Move to Uxbridge
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Priti Patel has told Facebook, Twitter and Google that they have a social responsibility to remove false anti-vaccination posts.

    The home secretary said that social media companies were to blame for the lower uptake of coronavirus vaccines among ethnic minorities compared with the general population. She also called on them to proactively publicise NHS and government information on their sites to counter antivaxers."

    (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patel-tells-social-media-to-remove-antivax-posts-77ggm5tjn

    I have a lot of sympathy with the desire of the government here. But I'm also a little scared of a situation where it's OK for the government to tell companies (either new media or old) what stories they're allowed to run.
    They should do what they did in the run up to the US election, add a ‘flag’ to these posts saying that this is disputed, and pointing people at reputable sources. Then set their algorithms to downvote flagged posts and stop them going viral (sic).
    As ever, Sir Humphrey has it right. If you do the right thing once, you have to do the right thing every time. Sadly, social media sites are very choosy as to when their moral compass kicks in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Has LA been prioritising first doses correctly ?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Priti Patel has told Facebook, Twitter and Google that they have a social responsibility to remove false anti-vaccination posts.

    The home secretary said that social media companies were to blame for the lower uptake of coronavirus vaccines among ethnic minorities compared with the general population. She also called on them to proactively publicise NHS and government information on their sites to counter antivaxers."

    (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patel-tells-social-media-to-remove-antivax-posts-77ggm5tjn

    I have a lot of sympathy with the desire of the government here. But I'm also a little scared of a situation where it's OK for the government to tell companies (either new media or old) what stories they're allowed to run.
    They should do what they did in the run up to the US election, add a ‘flag’ to these posts saying that this is disputed, and pointing people at reputable sources. Then set their algorithms to downvote flagged posts and stop them going viral (sic).
    As ever, Sir Humphrey has it right. If you do the right thing once, you have to do the right thing every time. Sadly, social media sites are very choosy as to when their moral compass kicks in.
    Social media sites have up until now acted as a law upon themselves in the Western world. I suspect that is about to change, with increasing attention from governments, as the negative aspects of their behaviour on the coherence and polarisation of society continue.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Morning all! 1st day in Scotland. Have bought what feels like a lottery win house. Can't quite believe we're here...

    Good luck with your new adventure
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Morning all! 1st day in Scotland. Have bought what feels like a lottery win house. Can't quite believe we're here...

    Congratulations!! :+1:
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Congratulations, Mr. Pioneers.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited February 2021
    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Morning all! 1st day in Scotland. Have bought what feels like a lottery win house. Can't quite believe we're here...

    Hope the move went smoothly. Must have been interesting with all the restrictions in place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
  • Graham and the Republican's descent to being Reek continues.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.

    Somewhat higher level of fuel reserves required in civvy world though!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    The standout figure is the 34% who neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer. Hasn’t changed in a month. My guess is most of them can barely name him.

    I bet the stats for Corbyn were way better in this respect. You certainly recognized him, and had opinions on him.

    Starmer is anonymous, bland and boring. I cannot recall one single thing he has said, not a joke, not a riff, not a gaffe, nothing. He’s a nullity.

    From the start I knew that Corbyn wore vests, had an allotment, was a cranky Marxist, liked the IRA, owned a cat, had oddly sexy wives, feted Palestinian terrorists, went on holiday with Diane Abbott

    Much of this is intensely dislikable, for me, but at least I had a sense of the man. I have no grasp on Kier Starmer. I’ve only recently learned how to spell his first name

    Kier Is Exactly Right is a handy mnemonic.
    Keir, not Kier
    No, no, no, it's definitely 'Kier'. Remember, 'I before E, except after C'. Easy.
    You’re weird.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.

    Somewhat higher level of fuel reserves required in civvy world though!
    Amazing what nuggets of information one can pick up here.

    Cold here, but the snow seems to be disappearing. And no more is forecast.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.

    Somewhat higher level of fuel reserves required in civvy world though!
    Amazing what nuggets of information one can pick up here.

    Cold here, but the snow seems to be disappearing. And no more is forecast.
    No snow here, but foggy this morning. Still expecting this year's rain, which is somewhat later arriving than usual.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588

    Morning all! 1st day in Scotland. Have bought what feels like a lottery win house. Can't quite believe we're here...

    Congratulations.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.

    Somewhat higher level of fuel reserves required in civvy world though!
    I was flying from NY to Stockholm when the Icelandic volcano blew a few years ago

    Woke up over the Netherlands to the pilot saying “we had to make a bit of a diversion... but don’t worry we should have enough fuel left”...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.

    Somewhat higher level of fuel reserves required in civvy world though!
    I think you missed the sheer awesomeness of my subtle pun there, Sandpit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    How is the entry and exit to a Freeport controlled?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.

    Somewhat higher level of fuel reserves required in civvy world though!
    I was flying from NY to Stockholm when the Icelandic volcano blew a few years ago

    Woke up over the Netherlands to the pilot saying “we had to make a bit of a diversion... but don’t worry we should have enough fuel left”...
    It’s a good job he told everyone not to worry before saying you might run out of fuel.

    I’m sure that really helped the situation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.

    Somewhat higher level of fuel reserves required in civvy world though!
    I was flying from NY to Stockholm when the Icelandic volcano blew a few years ago

    Woke up over the Netherlands to the pilot saying “we had to make a bit of a diversion... but don’t worry we should have enough fuel left”...
    The very last trip I did we got diverted due to a volcano in Manila. Ended up with a night in Bangkok, and arrived a day late after they had cleared the ash off the runway!

    (Looks up the date and notices it was 12th January last year! I really don't miss the travelling any more...)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    Will it be new Hong Kong? That would be interesting.
  • At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    Morning RP. Glad the move went well. Where in the NE have you moved to? Obviously with working from home I have not been up to Aberdeen in a year now but look forward to getting back up there later this year. Lovely part of the world.
  • DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    Will it be new Hong Kong? That would be interesting.
    Time to staart retraining City traders?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    Will it be new Hong Kong? That would be interesting.
    I thought that was going either in Hartlepool where it was cheap, or in Northern Ireland to mess with what passes for the brains of the EU?
  • At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    Morning RP. Glad the move went well. Where in the NE have you moved to? Obviously with working from home I have not been up to Aberdeen in a year now but look forward to getting back up there later this year. Lovely part of the world.
    As an aside two of my crew have ben sat offshore for a week now waiting for a chopper. The problem is the rig is down off Flamborough Head but the choppers are from Aberdeen so there is a huge amount of potential disruptive weather inbetween.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:


    Social media sites have up until now acted as a law upon themselves in the Western world. I suspect that is about to change, with increasing attention from governments, as the negative aspects of their behaviour on the coherence and polarisation of society continue.

    We are entering the era of surveillance capital. It's going to take a while for social and consumer protections to be put in place just as was necessary at the start of other phases of capitalism.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    Will it be new Hong Kong? That would be interesting.
    I thought that was going either in Hartlepool where it was cheap, or in Northern Ireland to mess with what passes for the brains of the EU?
    Wasn't Johnson talking about several? To 'regenerate' the economy, IIRC.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    Will it be new Hong Kong? That would be interesting.
    I thought that was going either in Hartlepool where it was cheap, or in Northern Ireland to mess with what passes for the brains of the EU?
    I am sure that they would rather have access to London and easier access to international travel but NI would indeed be hilarious. The challenge, I suspect, is going to be getting meaningful numbers of those eligible out of HK in the first place.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    How is the entry and exit to a Freeport controlled?
    If it's anything like the free zones in this part of the world, the manufacturing areas are fenced in, and subject to tight vehicle controls on entry and exit into the 'onshore' country, same as any other port. People can be expected to show ID.

    From a manufacturing standpoint, it's placing an industrial area inside the port, so they don't have to import (into the UK) their raw materials. If the end product is mostly for export, this can save a lot on customs and VAT, as only the end product actually imported back to the UK is subject to controls.

    The office-based areas have no physical controls, but the occupants have to be specifically free zone companies, and are regulated in terms of the business that they can do onshore. As an example, Microsoft have a massive regional headquarters in Dubai Internet City, but can only sell software licenses through onshore local partners. It can make sales within the Free Zone, and to other countries in the region though, subject to their local laws. This is becoming more difficult to enforce with internet sales, but the regulation is that DIC company can't make onshore UAE sales.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited February 2021
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    Will it be new Hong Kong? That would be interesting.
    I thought that was going either in Hartlepool where it was cheap, or in Northern Ireland to mess with what passes for the brains of the EU?
    With enough fudge, NI could be one massive free zone, at least as far as UK-EU trade in manufactured goods is concerned. It's a huge opportunity for them in the coming years.

    The Hartlepool FZ will be similar to the London one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    Graham and the Republican's descent to being Reek continues.
    I saw a bit of that whilst eating my tea last night. It was weird. It is supposedly a trial but what you have is a series of House Members making speeches with nothing of evidence that I could identify. The one's I saw were definitely enjoying their day in the sun too much with a lot of self indulgent twaddle about themselves and their backgrounds etc.

    Having to sit and listen to this must be some punishment for the Senate but I am not sure that its Trump that they are going to blame. They would have been much better keeping it short, direct and simple.
  • The previous owners - in their mid70s - have left a ridiculous amount of stuff. We agreed an inventory they were leaving (it would have gone to charity had they been open), but having got here there's way more stuff. Multiple thousands of pounds worth of stuff. Perhaps multiple tens of thousands...
  • DavidL said:

    Graham and the Republican's descent to being Reek continues.
    I saw a bit of that whilst eating my tea last night. It was weird. It is supposedly a trial but what you have is a series of House Members making speeches with nothing of evidence that I could identify. The one's I saw were definitely enjoying their day in the sun too much with a lot of self indulgent twaddle about themselves and their backgrounds etc.

    Having to sit and listen to this must be some punishment for the Senate but I am not sure that its Trump that they are going to blame. They would have been much better keeping it short, direct and simple.
    The bit I saw on Sky last night before the paper review was clear and to the point. Showing video of what was happening in the Capitol, video of what was being reported on Fox News and then the Tweets released by Trump. Was almost all presenting evidence and not speeches.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421

    The previous owners - in their mid70s - have left a ridiculous amount of stuff. We agreed an inventory they were leaving (it would have gone to charity had they been open), but having got here there's way more stuff. Multiple thousands of pounds worth of stuff. Perhaps multiple tens of thousands...

    Most "stuff" doesn't particularly hold its value. I'd be surprised if what they left was worth more than a couple of hundred, unless there were some particular items that hold value, such as good quality musical instruments, rare antiques, etc.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    DavidL said:

    Graham and the Republican's descent to being Reek continues.
    I saw a bit of that whilst eating my tea last night. It was weird. It is supposedly a trial but what you have is a series of House Members making speeches with nothing of evidence that I could identify. The one's I saw were definitely enjoying their day in the sun too much with a lot of self indulgent twaddle about themselves and their backgrounds etc.

    Having to sit and listen to this must be some punishment for the Senate but I am not sure that its Trump that they are going to blame. They would have been much better keeping it short, direct and simple.
    The bit I saw on Sky last night before the paper review was clear and to the point. Showing video of what was happening in the Capitol, video of what was being reported on Fox News and then the Tweets released by Trump. Was almost all presenting evidence and not speeches.
    The video stuff has been the best part. It really speaks for itself. But edited highlights of the relevant bits don't give the same impression as listening to wittering from suitably socially diverse Congressmen and women.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    Will it be new Hong Kong? That would be interesting.
    I thought that was going either in Hartlepool where it was cheap, or in Northern Ireland to mess with what passes for the brains of the EU?
    With enough fudge, NI could be one massive free zone, at least as far as UK-EU trade in manufactured goods is concerned. It's a huge opportunity for them in the coming years.

    The Hartlepool FZ will be similar to the London one.
    You think that the market for fudge is that big? I mean, I love it, but I have been trying to cut back since lockdown.
  • The previous owners - in their mid70s - have left a ridiculous amount of stuff. We agreed an inventory they were leaving (it would have gone to charity had they been open), but having got here there's way more stuff. Multiple thousands of pounds worth of stuff. Perhaps multiple tens of thousands...

    Most "stuff" doesn't particularly hold its value. I'd be surprised if what they left was worth more than a couple of hundred, unless there were some particular items that hold value, such as good quality musical instruments, rare antiques, etc.
    Oh sure, I'm basing on what it would cost for me to go about and buy them. Huuuuge ornate carved and gilded mirrors aren't cheap. To name just one type of stuff.

    I don't care what the nominal value is. I just can't quite believe they have left it all
  • Mr. L, fudge is pretty fantastic.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited February 2021
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    A somewhat interesting story in my local paper this morning, that doesn’t seem to be getting UK coverage...

    Huge plan submitted for a Freeport in East London.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/uae-backed-plan-to-create-london-freeport-welcomed-as-a-boost-for-jobs-1.1163938

    “The proposed Thames Freeport – to be located in the Thames Estuary in east London – would include the ports of DP World-owned London Gateway, Tilbury and a Ford factory farther west.”

    Will it be new Hong Kong? That would be interesting.
    I thought that was going either in Hartlepool where it was cheap, or in Northern Ireland to mess with what passes for the brains of the EU?
    With enough fudge, NI could be one massive free zone, at least as far as UK-EU trade in manufactured goods is concerned. It's a huge opportunity for them in the coming years.

    The Hartlepool FZ will be similar to the London one.
    You think that the market for fudge is that big? I mean, I love it, but I have been trying to cut back since lockdown.
    It's Northern Ireland, they've been massive fans of fudge for the past century! 2021 is looking like a vintage year for NI fudge too, they can't get enough of the stuff at the moment.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    When the cases are very low in the spring and, as RCS put it, we are awash with vaccines, I wonder how the average voter is going to take statements like this.

    the phrase 'go f8ck yourself' comes to mind.

    But I could be wrong.
    What was the flaw in RCS argument?

    Is it over estimating vaccine production ramping up. He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating speed of roll out? He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating the impact of vaccination on quickly changing the picture?

    Or maybe RCS is spot on. Whatever, it’s clear RCS and his back to normal tribe, and the government messaging is not on the same page tonight, Is it?
    Worth remembering I was on the "shut the borders now!" side of this site back in last spring and summer. (And, I was ridiculed by some posters for suggesting that we would follow the path of cases Spain had had.)

    The government was wrong to not shut the borders then.

    And I suspect they will be wrong to shut them over the summer.

    That being said... what I'd really recommend is shutting the borders now, and then being flexible in the Summer. If we're all vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May and cases are close to zero and there's no evidence of any mutation that looks likely to make a dent in the mRNA vaccines' efficiency, then we should be prepared to open up more quickly.
    We are certainly not all going to be "vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May" in the UK. If you include AZ and set the bar at just one dose then yes, end of May is possible, but a lot will have had AZ.
    Define all? Because there are going to be a substantial minority (10%? 30%?) of hold-outs who simply won't want to to be vaccinated.

    But my working assumption is that the government will do initial shots of AZ for most people, and then will follow it up with Pfizer/Moderna/CureVac for second doses. I suspect that that regime will have 95% (or thereabouts) efficacy.

    Other than the 12 week gap between doses that we currently use for AZN, why wouldn't we have reached 70% of the country "doubly jabbed" in four months? That doesn't sound like a very ambitious target to me.
    I don't know that the study will be finished in time for that to happen, but it may be possible for the last 20m people to get two types of vaccine. Our salvation lies in Novavax in the short term as the government will be able to run that programme simultaneously with the others allowing a huge capacity increase for first jabs while we do second ones.
    Given that the trial only involves 800 participants, it won't be accumulating any real case data basically ever. So I imagine they will only be looking at immunogenic response, which can be done fairly quickly - basically the delay between doses and the time period of follow up - but won't be completely convincing about which option is better against which variant(s).

    Recruitment was this month, so useful immunogenic results in May-June, perhaps?

    --AS
    In a similar direction, this was an interesting result:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251182v1

    When they vaccinated people (using Pfizer or Moderna) who had recovered from original covid, they had strong protection against the SA variant (I'm reminded of the issues that people with acquired immunity have had in other trials against being reinfected with the SA variant, so that seems significant) - and the resistance was broad spectrum enough to provide protection against even SARS-CoV-1 (original SARS)!

    Obviously just a single study, but I'm wondering:

    - If it would be seen with non-mRNA vaccines on top of acquired immunity
    - If it would be seen with mRNA vaccines on top of other-vaccine-type-generated immunity (eg AZ vaccine first; Pfizer booster)
    - If a Pfizer third shot on top of a "full" course of the other vaccines would give similar effect (it appears to my untrained eye that the reason we don't give a third shot is simply diminishing returns rather than any safety issues)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    DavidL said:

    The previous owners - in their mid70s - have left a ridiculous amount of stuff. We agreed an inventory they were leaving (it would have gone to charity had they been open), but having got here there's way more stuff. Multiple thousands of pounds worth of stuff. Perhaps multiple tens of thousands...

    Make sure your solicitor writes pointing this out and asks for confirmation that this has been abandoned and renounced. You don't want to have the hassle of disposing of it and then they coming back asking for it. I have come across that a couple of times (not on the scale you are describing) and the law is messy. Transfer of heritage does not bring with it transfer of moveables unless they are attached. Its definitely worth a letter to protect yourselves.

    Hope you enjoy your new home.
    Rather than asking - which may not get a reply - surely you would be better to give a reasonable period of notice after which you say the items will be treated as abandoned?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Breaking: Amsterdam now trading more shares than London, for the first time. By 9.2 to 8.6 €bn per month.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Amsterdam now trading more shares than London, for the first time. By 9.2 to 8.6 €bn per month.

    https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1359613176044802049
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Amsterdam now trading more shares than London, for the first time. By 9.2 to 8.6 €bn per month.

    Bloody tulips!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.

    Somewhat higher level of fuel reserves required in civvy world though!
    I was flying from NY to Stockholm when the Icelandic volcano blew a few years ago

    Woke up over the Netherlands to the pilot saying “we had to make a bit of a diversion... but don’t worry we should have enough fuel left”...
    It’s a good job he told everyone not to worry before saying you might run out of fuel.

    I’m sure that really helped the situation.
    Imagine it in a laconic Swedish accent...
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Scott_xP said:
    Not to be controversial, but presumably those who voted brexit didn’t do so in fear of slipping down Germany’s export importance
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited February 2021

    Scott_xP said:
    Whinge whinge whinge.

    Kemi was entirely justified to call out a journalist who was muckraking about a pro vaccination drive.

    If she didn't want to be called out for muckraking, perhaps she shouldn't have been muckraking? Why should journalists be entitled to do that but not be called out on it? What an absurd self entitled ridiculous notion.
    Yet we continue to wonder why vaccine take-up among BAME communities is low.

    Maybe if they all stopped talking about who said what to who when, and instead used their platforms to tell everyone about the importance of vaccination, we wouldn't have the problem in the first place?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited February 2021
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.
    Bingo specifically means return to base fuel state. The brevity code for going elsewhere is 'divert'. 'Joker' fuel state is stop arsing about and prepare for 'bingo'.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Morning all! 1st day in Scotland. Have bought what feels like a lottery win house. Can't quite believe we're here...

    Congratulations on your move north. I remember having the opposite feeling moving south!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.
    Bingo specifically means return to base fuel state. The brevity code for going elsewhere is 'divert'. 'Joker' fuel state is stop arsing about and prepare for 'bingo'.
    Joker is new on me, definitely not a word ever uttered in a civvy cockpit - where the idea of 'Final Reserve' fuel, that one doesn't ever land without, is 45' duration at circuit height for commercial ops.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    There are many more snowflakes on twitter tha on the ground.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    ‘Bingo fuel?’ Did one of them shout ‘House?’
    A military term, marking the decision point where you have to abandon the plan and go somewhere you know to be good.

    Somewhat higher level of fuel reserves required in civvy world though!
    I was flying from NY to Stockholm when the Icelandic volcano blew a few years ago

    Woke up over the Netherlands to the pilot saying “we had to make a bit of a diversion... but don’t worry we should have enough fuel left”...
    Wifey was in a private plane on her way to film Coriolanus in Serbia (she was one of the producers). Would have been less hairy if Gerry Butler hadn't persuaded the pilot to let him have a go at flying it....
  • Good morning

    I see nothing has changed in so far as near every other post this morning seems to be from Scott ( anti Brexit anti Boris)

    Yes, there are issues in leaving the EU, some of which are more concerning than others, but ultimately we have left and neither of the main parties have any intention of rejoining so it is time to accept that changes are inevitable for better and worse

    The recent performance by the EU over A16 and vaccine protectionism and Macron rash comments on AZN just reinforce the need to be able to make our own decisions, and over time I am confident we will adjust to a very different relationship with the EU and the Rest of the World
  • The previous owners - in their mid70s - have left a ridiculous amount of stuff. We agreed an inventory they were leaving (it would have gone to charity had they been open), but having got here there's way more stuff. Multiple thousands of pounds worth of stuff. Perhaps multiple tens of thousands...

    Blimey. Odd.

    Anyway, many congrats on the big move.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    Not to be controversial, but presumably those who voted brexit didn’t do so in fear of slipping down Germany’s export importance

    Sunlit uplands...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    edited February 2021
    Former secretary of state: "if the document published on Feb 22 isn't a significant step back to normality then there is going to be real turmoil in the parliamentary party."

    ""What's the point in having a world-leading vaccinations programme if it doesn't result in easing the restrictions?"

    Telegraph
  • MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    When the cases are very low in the spring and, as RCS put it, we are awash with vaccines, I wonder how the average voter is going to take statements like this.

    the phrase 'go f8ck yourself' comes to mind.

    But I could be wrong.
    What was the flaw in RCS argument?

    Is it over estimating vaccine production ramping up. He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating speed of roll out? He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating the impact of vaccination on quickly changing the picture?

    Or maybe RCS is spot on. Whatever, it’s clear RCS and his back to normal tribe, and the government messaging is not on the same page tonight, Is it?
    Worth remembering I was on the "shut the borders now!" side of this site back in last spring and summer. (And, I was ridiculed by some posters for suggesting that we would follow the path of cases Spain had had.)

    The government was wrong to not shut the borders then.

    And I suspect they will be wrong to shut them over the summer.

    That being said... what I'd really recommend is shutting the borders now, and then being flexible in the Summer. If we're all vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May and cases are close to zero and there's no evidence of any mutation that looks likely to make a dent in the mRNA vaccines' efficiency, then we should be prepared to open up more quickly.
    We are certainly not all going to be "vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May" in the UK. If you include AZ and set the bar at just one dose then yes, end of May is possible, but a lot will have had AZ.
    Define all? Because there are going to be a substantial minority (10%? 30%?) of hold-outs who simply won't want to to be vaccinated.

    But my working assumption is that the government will do initial shots of AZ for most people, and then will follow it up with Pfizer/Moderna/CureVac for second doses. I suspect that that regime will have 95% (or thereabouts) efficacy.

    Other than the 12 week gap between doses that we currently use for AZN, why wouldn't we have reached 70% of the country "doubly jabbed" in four months? That doesn't sound like a very ambitious target to me.
    I don't know that the study will be finished in time for that to happen, but it may be possible for the last 20m people to get two types of vaccine. Our salvation lies in Novavax in the short term as the government will be able to run that programme simultaneously with the others allowing a huge capacity increase for first jabs while we do second ones.
    Given that the trial only involves 800 participants, it won't be accumulating any real case data basically ever. So I imagine they will only be looking at immunogenic response, which can be done fairly quickly - basically the delay between doses and the time period of follow up - but won't be completely convincing about which option is better against which variant(s).

    Recruitment was this month, so useful immunogenic results in May-June, perhaps?

    --AS
    In a similar direction, this was an interesting result:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251182v1

    When they vaccinated people (using Pfizer or Moderna) who had recovered from original covid, they had strong protection against the SA variant (I'm reminded of the issues that people with acquired immunity have had in other trials against being reinfected with the SA variant, so that seems significant) - and the resistance was broad spectrum enough to provide protection against even SARS-CoV-1 (original SARS)!

    Obviously just a single study, but I'm wondering:

    - If it would be seen with non-mRNA vaccines on top of acquired immunity
    - If it would be seen with mRNA vaccines on top of other-vaccine-type-generated immunity (eg AZ vaccine first; Pfizer booster)
    - If a Pfizer third shot on top of a "full" course of the other vaccines would give similar effect (it appears to my untrained eye that the reason we don't give a third shot is simply diminishing returns rather than any safety issues)
    Yes, I saw that. A powerful result, so I'd want to see it replicated.

    Immune response is complicated, so who can say what happens with various combinations of vaccine and acquired immunity. There's also a decent chance that circulating levels of COVID will provide its own booster, of sorts. It may well be that the steady state is that humans are mostly immune to broad classes of coronavirus; the current period illustrates very well why it's specifically novelty that is such a concern. (There may be a case for exterminating certain reservoir species, so that COVID-23, -29, -35, etc, don't make us go through all this again.)

    --AS
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    How many times have we heard this before? I’ll go with ‘roughly annually since 1950.’

    NHS shake-up 'to cut bureaucracy and improve care'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55985910

    And how many times has it actually happened? I’ll go with ‘never.’
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    At least my drive up yesterday with the cats was uneventful. Mrs RP and the kids flew from Ben Houchen International Airport to Aberdeen Tuesday afternoon. Twice!

    And I do mean twice. They got half way up when Aberdeen was hit by a blizzard. Did 6 laps in a holding pattern before bingo fuel forced their return to Teesside.

    Then the weather cleared. Aberdeen airport reopened. So they refueled the plane and set off a 2nd time. As it's not that long a flight they were only a couple of hours late landing despite doing triple the usual distance plus hold legs...

    Morning RP. Glad the move went well. Where in the NE have you moved to? Obviously with working from home I have not been up to Aberdeen in a year now but look forward to getting back up there later this year. Lovely part of the world.
    As an aside two of my crew have ben sat offshore for a week now waiting for a chopper. The problem is the rig is down off Flamborough Head but the choppers are from Aberdeen so there is a huge amount of potential disruptive weather inbetween.
    Off Flamborough Head is not a bad place to be for the birdwatching. A chance of seeing Gyr Falcons and Snowy Owls moving south from the Arctic Circle in this weather.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    DavidL said:

    Graham and the Republican's descent to being Reek continues.
    I saw a bit of that whilst eating my tea last night. It was weird. It is supposedly a trial but what you have is a series of House Members making speeches with nothing of evidence that I could identify. The one's I saw were definitely enjoying their day in the sun too much with a lot of self indulgent twaddle about themselves and their backgrounds etc.

    Having to sit and listen to this must be some punishment for the Senate but I am not sure that its Trump that they are going to blame. They would have been much better keeping it short, direct and simple.
    Except one complaint I've seen Republicans use is that Democrats should have taken time to do a proper investigation, which implies they are asking for a longer trial.

    It's almost as though none of it matters as everyone has made up their mind, so prosecuting team and jury are just grandstanding.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Former secretary of state: "if the document published on Feb 22 isn't a significant step back to normality then there is going to be real turmoil in the parliamentary party."

    ""What's the point in having a world-leading vaccinations programme if it doesn't result in easing the restrictions?"

    Telegraph

    I thought it was the Yanks had a Secretary of State?

    And the whole point of the vaccine programme is to lift restrictions. When it’s advanced enough to allow it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    When the cases are very low in the spring and, as RCS put it, we are awash with vaccines, I wonder how the average voter is going to take statements like this.

    the phrase 'go f8ck yourself' comes to mind.

    But I could be wrong.
    What was the flaw in RCS argument?

    Is it over estimating vaccine production ramping up. He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating speed of roll out? He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating the impact of vaccination on quickly changing the picture?

    Or maybe RCS is spot on. Whatever, it’s clear RCS and his back to normal tribe, and the government messaging is not on the same page tonight, Is it?
    Worth remembering I was on the "shut the borders now!" side of this site back in last spring and summer. (And, I was ridiculed by some posters for suggesting that we would follow the path of cases Spain had had.)

    The government was wrong to not shut the borders then.

    And I suspect they will be wrong to shut them over the summer.

    That being said... what I'd really recommend is shutting the borders now, and then being flexible in the Summer. If we're all vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May and cases are close to zero and there's no evidence of any mutation that looks likely to make a dent in the mRNA vaccines' efficiency, then we should be prepared to open up more quickly.
    We are certainly not all going to be "vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May" in the UK. If you include AZ and set the bar at just one dose then yes, end of May is possible, but a lot will have had AZ.
    Define all? Because there are going to be a substantial minority (10%? 30%?) of hold-outs who simply won't want to to be vaccinated.

    But my working assumption is that the government will do initial shots of AZ for most people, and then will follow it up with Pfizer/Moderna/CureVac for second doses. I suspect that that regime will have 95% (or thereabouts) efficacy.

    Other than the 12 week gap between doses that we currently use for AZN, why wouldn't we have reached 70% of the country "doubly jabbed" in four months? That doesn't sound like a very ambitious target to me.
    I don't know that the study will be finished in time for that to happen, but it may be possible for the last 20m people to get two types of vaccine. Our salvation lies in Novavax in the short term as the government will be able to run that programme simultaneously with the others allowing a huge capacity increase for first jabs while we do second ones.
    Given that the trial only involves 800 participants, it won't be accumulating any real case data basically ever. So I imagine they will only be looking at immunogenic response, which can be done fairly quickly - basically the delay between doses and the time period of follow up - but won't be completely convincing about which option is better against which variant(s).

    Recruitment was this month, so useful immunogenic results in May-June, perhaps?

    --AS
    In a similar direction, this was an interesting result:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251182v1

    When they vaccinated people (using Pfizer or Moderna) who had recovered from original covid, they had strong protection against the SA variant (I'm reminded of the issues that people with acquired immunity have had in other trials against being reinfected with the SA variant, so that seems significant) - and the resistance was broad spectrum enough to provide protection against even SARS-CoV-1 (original SARS)!

    Obviously just a single study, but I'm wondering:

    - If it would be seen with non-mRNA vaccines on top of acquired immunity
    - If it would be seen with mRNA vaccines on top of other-vaccine-type-generated immunity (eg AZ vaccine first; Pfizer booster)
    - If a Pfizer third shot on top of a "full" course of the other vaccines would give similar effect (it appears to my untrained eye that the reason we don't give a third shot is simply diminishing returns rather than any safety issues)
    Yes, I saw that. A powerful result, so I'd want to see it replicated.

    Immune response is complicated, so who can say what happens with various combinations of vaccine and acquired immunity. There's also a decent chance that circulating levels of COVID will provide its own booster, of sorts. It may well be that the steady state is that humans are mostly immune to broad classes of coronavirus; the current period illustrates very well why it's specifically novelty that is such a concern. (There may be a case for exterminating certain reservoir species, so that COVID-23, -29, -35, etc, don't make us go through all this again.)

    --AS
    Is there any information out there about what structures the natural human immune response targets in the virus?
  • ydoethur said:

    How many times have we heard this before? I’ll go with ‘roughly annually since 1950.’

    NHS shake-up 'to cut bureaucracy and improve care'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55985910

    And how many times has it actually happened? I’ll go with ‘never.’

    There does seem to be more substance this time especially with the merging of the NHS and social care

    Indeed it is supported by many in the NHS and the rejection of competitive tendering must tick labour's boxes as well, other than it is the conservative proposing it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    ydoethur said:

    Former secretary of state: "if the document published on Feb 22 isn't a significant step back to normality then there is going to be real turmoil in the parliamentary party."

    ""What's the point in having a world-leading vaccinations programme if it doesn't result in easing the restrictions?"

    Telegraph

    I thought it was the Yanks had a Secretary of State?
    We have dozens.

    I may be wrong, but I think theres only one actual Ministry left as well, the rest being Departments.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    When the cases are very low in the spring and, as RCS put it, we are awash with vaccines, I wonder how the average voter is going to take statements like this.

    the phrase 'go f8ck yourself' comes to mind.

    But I could be wrong.
    What was the flaw in RCS argument?

    Is it over estimating vaccine production ramping up. He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating speed of roll out? He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating the impact of vaccination on quickly changing the picture?

    Or maybe RCS is spot on. Whatever, it’s clear RCS and his back to normal tribe, and the government messaging is not on the same page tonight, Is it?
    Worth remembering I was on the "shut the borders now!" side of this site back in last spring and summer. (And, I was ridiculed by some posters for suggesting that we would follow the path of cases Spain had had.)

    The government was wrong to not shut the borders then.

    And I suspect they will be wrong to shut them over the summer.

    That being said... what I'd really recommend is shutting the borders now, and then being flexible in the Summer. If we're all vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May and cases are close to zero and there's no evidence of any mutation that looks likely to make a dent in the mRNA vaccines' efficiency, then we should be prepared to open up more quickly.
    We are certainly not all going to be "vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May" in the UK. If you include AZ and set the bar at just one dose then yes, end of May is possible, but a lot will have had AZ.
    Define all? Because there are going to be a substantial minority (10%? 30%?) of hold-outs who simply won't want to to be vaccinated.

    But my working assumption is that the government will do initial shots of AZ for most people, and then will follow it up with Pfizer/Moderna/CureVac for second doses. I suspect that that regime will have 95% (or thereabouts) efficacy.

    Other than the 12 week gap between doses that we currently use for AZN, why wouldn't we have reached 70% of the country "doubly jabbed" in four months? That doesn't sound like a very ambitious target to me.
    I don't know that the study will be finished in time for that to happen, but it may be possible for the last 20m people to get two types of vaccine. Our salvation lies in Novavax in the short term as the government will be able to run that programme simultaneously with the others allowing a huge capacity increase for first jabs while we do second ones.
    Given that the trial only involves 800 participants, it won't be accumulating any real case data basically ever. So I imagine they will only be looking at immunogenic response, which can be done fairly quickly - basically the delay between doses and the time period of follow up - but won't be completely convincing about which option is better against which variant(s).

    Recruitment was this month, so useful immunogenic results in May-June, perhaps?

    --AS
    In a similar direction, this was an interesting result:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251182v1

    When they vaccinated people (using Pfizer or Moderna) who had recovered from original covid, they had strong protection against the SA variant (I'm reminded of the issues that people with acquired immunity have had in other trials against being reinfected with the SA variant, so that seems significant) - and the resistance was broad spectrum enough to provide protection against even SARS-CoV-1 (original SARS)!

    Obviously just a single study, but I'm wondering:

    - If it would be seen with non-mRNA vaccines on top of acquired immunity
    - If it would be seen with mRNA vaccines on top of other-vaccine-type-generated immunity (eg AZ vaccine first; Pfizer booster)
    - If a Pfizer third shot on top of a "full" course of the other vaccines would give similar effect (it appears to my untrained eye that the reason we don't give a third shot is simply diminishing returns rather than any safety issues)
    Yes, I saw that. A powerful result, so I'd want to see it replicated.

    Immune response is complicated, so who can say what happens with various combinations of vaccine and acquired immunity. There's also a decent chance that circulating levels of COVID will provide its own booster, of sorts. It may well be that the steady state is that humans are mostly immune to broad classes of coronavirus; the current period illustrates very well why it's specifically novelty that is such a concern. (There may be a case for exterminating certain reservoir species, so that COVID-23, -29, -35, etc, don't make us go through all this again.)

    --AS
    I was attracted to the theory that exposure to common cold coronaviruses might give limited protection (for obvious reasons - I frequently have had colds), but that seems to have been shot down by studies since.

    https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1359510515211526148

    https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(20)30503-3

    https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00160-4

    It looks like some T-cells get interested a little bit, but then don't go on to actually do anything of any use to protect. In one of them, there's hints that having had multiple such cold coronaviruses before might actually make your immune response worse rather than better.

    It does seem to have become established in peoples minds as factual, though, unfortunately. I can see why - I was motivated to want to believe it.
  • MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    When the cases are very low in the spring and, as RCS put it, we are awash with vaccines, I wonder how the average voter is going to take statements like this.

    the phrase 'go f8ck yourself' comes to mind.

    But I could be wrong.
    What was the flaw in RCS argument?

    Is it over estimating vaccine production ramping up. He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating speed of roll out? He’s convinced me it isn’t that.

    Is it over estimating the impact of vaccination on quickly changing the picture?

    Or maybe RCS is spot on. Whatever, it’s clear RCS and his back to normal tribe, and the government messaging is not on the same page tonight, Is it?
    Worth remembering I was on the "shut the borders now!" side of this site back in last spring and summer. (And, I was ridiculed by some posters for suggesting that we would follow the path of cases Spain had had.)

    The government was wrong to not shut the borders then.

    And I suspect they will be wrong to shut them over the summer.

    That being said... what I'd really recommend is shutting the borders now, and then being flexible in the Summer. If we're all vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May and cases are close to zero and there's no evidence of any mutation that looks likely to make a dent in the mRNA vaccines' efficiency, then we should be prepared to open up more quickly.
    We are certainly not all going to be "vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May" in the UK. If you include AZ and set the bar at just one dose then yes, end of May is possible, but a lot will have had AZ.
    Define all? Because there are going to be a substantial minority (10%? 30%?) of hold-outs who simply won't want to to be vaccinated.

    But my working assumption is that the government will do initial shots of AZ for most people, and then will follow it up with Pfizer/Moderna/CureVac for second doses. I suspect that that regime will have 95% (or thereabouts) efficacy.

    Other than the 12 week gap between doses that we currently use for AZN, why wouldn't we have reached 70% of the country "doubly jabbed" in four months? That doesn't sound like a very ambitious target to me.
    I don't know that the study will be finished in time for that to happen, but it may be possible for the last 20m people to get two types of vaccine. Our salvation lies in Novavax in the short term as the government will be able to run that programme simultaneously with the others allowing a huge capacity increase for first jabs while we do second ones.
    Given that the trial only involves 800 participants, it won't be accumulating any real case data basically ever. So I imagine they will only be looking at immunogenic response, which can be done fairly quickly - basically the delay between doses and the time period of follow up - but won't be completely convincing about which option is better against which variant(s).

    Recruitment was this month, so useful immunogenic results in May-June, perhaps?

    --AS
    In a similar direction, this was an interesting result:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251182v1

    When they vaccinated people (using Pfizer or Moderna) who had recovered from original covid, they had strong protection against the SA variant (I'm reminded of the issues that people with acquired immunity have had in other trials against being reinfected with the SA variant, so that seems significant) - and the resistance was broad spectrum enough to provide protection against even SARS-CoV-1 (original SARS)!

    Obviously just a single study, but I'm wondering:

    - If it would be seen with non-mRNA vaccines on top of acquired immunity
    - If it would be seen with mRNA vaccines on top of other-vaccine-type-generated immunity (eg AZ vaccine first; Pfizer booster)
    - If a Pfizer third shot on top of a "full" course of the other vaccines would give similar effect (it appears to my untrained eye that the reason we don't give a third shot is simply diminishing returns rather than any safety issues)
    Yes, I saw that. A powerful result, so I'd want to see it replicated.

    Immune response is complicated, so who can say what happens with various combinations of vaccine and acquired immunity. There's also a decent chance that circulating levels of COVID will provide its own booster, of sorts. It may well be that the steady state is that humans are mostly immune to broad classes of coronavirus; the current period illustrates very well why it's specifically novelty that is such a concern. (There may be a case for exterminating certain reservoir species, so that COVID-23, -29, -35, etc, don't make us go through all this again.)

    --AS
    Is there any information out there about what structures the natural human immune response targets in the virus?
    Yes, and I get the impression that it's mostly the RBD of the spike, but probably each person produces different antibodies that may work in different ways. See e.g. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6519/950

    Bear in mind, though, that convalescent plasma broadly failed its clinical trial as a treatment. I think this just shows how complex immunity is: so-and-so antibody can be shown in vitro to disable the virus in one way or another, but in vivo fail to work.

    (I'm not an immunologist though.)

    --AS
  • DavidL said:

    The previous owners - in their mid70s - have left a ridiculous amount of stuff. We agreed an inventory they were leaving (it would have gone to charity had they been open), but having got here there's way more stuff. Multiple thousands of pounds worth of stuff. Perhaps multiple tens of thousands...

    Make sure your solicitor writes pointing this out and asks for confirmation that this has been abandoned and renounced. You don't want to have the hassle of disposing of it and then they coming back asking for it. I have come across that a couple of times (not on the scale you are describing) and the law is messy. Transfer of heritage does not bring with it transfer of moveables unless they are attached. Its definitely worth a letter to protect yourselves.

    Hope you enjoy your new home.
    Thanks for the tip David, ye it's been done through the solicitor in writing. Will send a final email confirming the remaining extra stuff
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462

    ydoethur said:

    How many times have we heard this before? I’ll go with ‘roughly annually since 1950.’

    NHS shake-up 'to cut bureaucracy and improve care'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55985910

    And how many times has it actually happened? I’ll go with ‘never.’

    There does seem to be more substance this time especially with the merging of the NHS and social care

    Indeed it is supported by many in the NHS and the rejection of competitive tendering must tick labour's boxes as well, other than it is the conservative proposing it
    It is of course, to a significant extent reverting to the situation before the Coalition introduced the reforms in the 2010 Conservative manifesto promised.
    For which, presumably, many of the present Government campaigned.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    ydoethur said:

    How many times have we heard this before? I’ll go with ‘roughly annually since 1950.’

    NHS shake-up 'to cut bureaucracy and improve care'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55985910

    And how many times has it actually happened? I’ll go with ‘never.’

    The changes happen. Positive effects, not so much.

    In one company I worked at, I collected business cards. Every 6 months or so, there was a rebrand, job structure changed etc etc. So new business cards.

    My actual work never changed as a result of these re-organisations.

    Hence the popularity of the fake Petronius quote...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    -22 C in Braemar last night - colder than a domestic freezer and the coldest temp recorded in the UK since winter 1995.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019

    Mango said:

    Trailing?

    Redfield Approval
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 34%
    Johnson leads by 8%

    IPSOS MORI Satisfied
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 40%
    Johnson leads by 2%

    Johnson leads in Approval/Satisfied. If people disapprove of Johnson but don't approve of Starmer and decide to vote for Lib Dems or Greens etc then that works just fine for Johnson.

    Remind me again about how we get to kick Johnson out, and how democracy is everything, and all your other shite.
    "Candygram for Mango, candygram for Mango!"

    You win the argument at a general election. Oh, and handy hint: maybe you don't want to have an anti-semite socialist making your case next time?

    Try a Beige Colour-card With a Pulse instead.
    Jezza is very much on your side, not mine. How else can you excuse your support for a race-baiting, populist, narcissistic, permanently lying, lazy personification of Bullingdon as prime minister, if not by pitching him against a bearded, bad-tempered thicko who would shoot his own balls off with a vegan bazooka if he thought it was in any way anti-imperialist?

    Perhaps my point is that I, like the MAJORITY of voters (let alone the disenfranchised), did not vote for Johnson. And yet here he is, wanking his unfettered parliamentary power over us. Our only hope of redress is slipping a bung to Jenrick or persuading Her Majesty to secretly rewrite a law for us.

    I know why you like it: more or less permanent power for Tories and their mates.

    But don't claim it is democracy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    edited February 2021
    Mango said:

    Mango said:

    Trailing?

    Redfield Approval
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 34%
    Johnson leads by 8%

    IPSOS MORI Satisfied
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 40%
    Johnson leads by 2%

    Johnson leads in Approval/Satisfied. If people disapprove of Johnson but don't approve of Starmer and decide to vote for Lib Dems or Greens etc then that works just fine for Johnson.

    Remind me again about how we get to kick Johnson out, and how democracy is everything, and all your other shite.
    "Candygram for Mango, candygram for Mango!"

    You win the argument at a general election. Oh, and handy hint: maybe you don't want to have an anti-semite socialist making your case next time?

    Try a Beige Colour-card With a Pulse instead.
    Jezza is very much on your side, not mine. How else can you excuse your support for a race-baiting, populist, narcissistic, permanently lying, lazy personification of Bullingdon as prime minister, if not by pitching him against a bearded, bad-tempered thicko who would shoot his own balls off with a vegan bazooka if he thought it was in any way anti-imperialist?

    Perhaps my point is that I, like the MAJORITY of voters (let alone the disenfranchised), did not vote for Johnson. And yet here he is, wanking his unfettered parliamentary power over us. Our only hope of redress is slipping a bung to Jenrick or persuading Her Majesty to secretly rewrite a law for us.

    I know why you like it: more or less permanent power for Tories and their mates.

    But don't claim it is democracy.
    How else can you excuse your support for a race-baiting, populist, narcissistic, permanently lying, lazy personification of Bullingdon as prime minister, if not by pitching him against a bearded, bad-tempered thicko who would shoot his own balls off with a vegan bazooka if he thought it was in any way anti-imperialist?

    Without agreeing with you, I would like to congratulate you on a splendid piece of political invective.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,239
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Whinge whinge whinge.

    Kemi was entirely justified to call out a journalist who was muckraking about a pro vaccination drive.

    If she didn't want to be called out for muckraking, perhaps she shouldn't have been muckraking? Why should journalists be entitled to do that but not be called out on it? What an absurd self entitled ridiculous notion.
    Yet we continue to wonder why vaccine take-up among BAME communities is low.

    Maybe if they all stopped talking about who said what to who when, and instead used their platforms to tell everyone about the importance of vaccination, we wouldn't have the problem in the first place?
    Badenoch was attacked by a journo who chose to go for peripheral controversy rather than reporting about a project to improve BAME vaccine takeup, and defended herself. And the attacker went into "poor little me" victim mode.

    There was only one party here who needed to stop.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Mango said:

    Mango said:

    Trailing?

    Redfield Approval
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 34%
    Johnson leads by 8%

    IPSOS MORI Satisfied
    Johnson 42%
    Starmer 40%
    Johnson leads by 2%

    Johnson leads in Approval/Satisfied. If people disapprove of Johnson but don't approve of Starmer and decide to vote for Lib Dems or Greens etc then that works just fine for Johnson.

    Remind me again about how we get to kick Johnson out, and how democracy is everything, and all your other shite.
    "Candygram for Mango, candygram for Mango!"

    You win the argument at a general election. Oh, and handy hint: maybe you don't want to have an anti-semite socialist making your case next time?

    Try a Beige Colour-card With a Pulse instead.
    Jezza is very much on your side, not mine. How else can you excuse your support for a race-baiting, populist, narcissistic, permanently lying, lazy personification of Bullingdon as prime minister, if not by pitching him against a bearded, bad-tempered thicko who would shoot his own balls off with a vegan bazooka if he thought it was in any way anti-imperialist?

    Perhaps my point is that I, like the MAJORITY of voters (let alone the disenfranchised), did not vote for Johnson. And yet here he is, wanking his unfettered parliamentary power over us. Our only hope of redress is slipping a bung to Jenrick or persuading Her Majesty to secretly rewrite a law for us.

    I know why you like it: more or less permanent power for Tories and their mates.

    But don't claim it is democracy.
    Lol!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The previous owners - in their mid70s - have left a ridiculous amount of stuff. We agreed an inventory they were leaving (it would have gone to charity had they been open), but having got here there's way more stuff. Multiple thousands of pounds worth of stuff. Perhaps multiple tens of thousands...

    Most "stuff" doesn't particularly hold its value. I'd be surprised if what they left was worth more than a couple of hundred, unless there were some particular items that hold value, such as good quality musical instruments, rare antiques, etc.
    Oh sure, I'm basing on what it would cost for me to go about and buy them. Huuuuge ornate carved and gilded mirrors aren't cheap. To name just one type of stuff.

    I don't care what the nominal value is. I just can't quite believe they have left it all
    Call an architectural reclaim form and you could sell it as a job lot (someone like Great Architectural Antiques North)
  • Scott_xP said:
    Not to be controversial, but presumably those who voted brexit didn’t do so in fear of slipping down Germany’s export importance
    It's the drip-drip effect though. Since 1 January, the Brexit bad-news stories have been unrelenting, and I doubt they'll be stopping any time soon. In fact this steady flow might turn into a tsunami. Boris needs something - anything - to show that Brexit was worth all the heartache and sacrifice. Otherwise the masses may turn upon him, denouncing him as a shaman and false prophet.
This discussion has been closed.