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Johnson is still trailing Starmer in the leader ratings – politicalbetting.com
Johnson is still trailing Starmer in the leader ratings – politicalbetting.com
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Johnson is still trailing Starmer in the leader ratings – politicalbetting.com
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When we're three months out from the next GE, as opposed to three years and three months, perhaps these numbers might have some conceivable relevance?
Redfield Approval
Johnson 42%
Starmer 34%
Johnson leads by 8%
IPSOS MORI Satisfied
Johnson 42%
Starmer 40%
Johnson leads by 2%
Johnson leads in Approval/Satisfied. If people disapprove of Johnson but don't approve of Starmer and decide to vote for Lib Dems or Greens etc then that works just fine for Johnson.
The government was wrong to not shut the borders then.
And I suspect they will be wrong to shut them over the summer.
That being said... what I'd really recommend is shutting the borders now, and then being flexible in the Summer. If we're all vaccinated with Pfizer/CureVac/Moderna by the end of May and cases are close to zero and there's no evidence of any mutation that looks likely to make a dent in the mRNA vaccines' efficiency, then we should be prepared to open up more quickly.
If there were to be a General Election in the United Kingdom in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, for which party would you vote?
The net figures are what is the best comparator, history has consistently shown that.
I bet the stats for Corbyn were way better in this respect. You certainly recognized him, and had opinions on him.
Starmer is anonymous, bland and boring. I cannot recall one single thing he has said, not a joke, not a riff, not a gaffe, nothing. He’s a nullity.
From the start I knew that Corbyn wore vests, had an allotment, was a cranky Marxist, liked the IRA, owned a cat, had oddly sexy wives, feted Palestinian terrorists, went on holiday with Diane Abbott
Much of this is intensely dislikable, for me, but at least I had a sense of the man. I have no grasp on Kier Starmer. I’ve only recently learned how to spell his first name
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/29/should-the-blues-be-worried-about-daves-ratings-collapse/
As PB regulars know I take a lot of notice leadership approval ratings particuarly those from MORI which has been asking the same questions for more than thirty years.
Also, taking the lead from several leading academic political scientists who track this, my main focus is on the “satisfaction” figure and I’m less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it’s the proportion saying they are satisfied that is key. Whether they “don’t know” or are not satisfied is irrelevant – they are not ready to be positive.
When you say shut borders now, what you mean in terms of detail? Boris used the argument last week we need them open for trade and business.
And one supplementary if I may, do you support the governments don’t book any holiday wait and see message this evening?
Four councils in England are being bailed out by the government because they are unable to balance their books.
Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said the pandemic was responsible in some cases, but in others "very poor management" was to blame.
The authorities named as being in the most serious trouble are Eastbourne, Bexley, Luton and Peterborough.
Oddly enough when isam shared it, I remembered it at the time - though I don't know if that was just deja vu.
Starmer has gone from +9 to +8 same pollster same period.
Some common sense about AZN but just look at this below: WTAF!
"In Murcia, a regional daily has revealed that the bishop of Cartagena, José Manuel Lorca Planes, as well as other leading Catholic Church officials in the southeastern region passed themselves off as chaplains of a senior care home in order to receive the coronavirus vaccine ahead of time. Prosecutors are now investigating whether the five individuals who cheated their way into getting early inoculations should be charged with crimes, La Opinión de Murcia reported."
I can see the UK moving away from the EU regulatory orbit going forward - just seems no desire to find a way to accommodate the relationship
I love dodgy mnemonics, as in which of brass and bronZe contains Zinc? And E is for Eggcup for recognising cardinal marks.
2015 gave good reason to show that leadership ratings were as or more important than party ratings - but why that net ratings are key rather than absolute figures? The absolute figures in 2015 worked extremely well.
No, he really will reveal his true self. Just wait...
And wait.
Honest, he'll get round to it. Eventually.
It will be worth the wait.
Ahem.
As per 2017.
Just think of 'Keith' or 'Sir Keira Knightly' and you'll never get it wrong.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/stella-creasy-reveals-nearly-walked-20075789
K😊
E😊
I😊
R😊
Neir.
Or indeed just go the whole hog and change his entire name to Lord Pizzleface Von Hooterbutt. No way you’d ever forget THAT guy. His Don’t Knows would crater overnight and he’d be sailing to electoral triumph
Why net is better is because of the complexity of the British voting environment, there's a high level of tactical voting in some places because we're not a two party state like say America. The third largest party (by size of MPs contests just over 9% of the seats.)
The net figures were a key pointer to why Dave was more even popular in Lib Dem held seats than he was in Con/Lab marginals.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/31/the-bad-taste-question-about-covid-that-everyone-at-westminster-is-asking
I do know a couple of pollsters who told me the same.
But my working assumption is that the government will do initial shots of AZ for most people, and then will follow it up with Pfizer/Moderna/CureVac for second doses. I suspect that that regime will have 95% (or thereabouts) efficacy.
Other than the 12 week gap between doses that we currently use for AZN, why wouldn't we have reached 70% of the country "doubly jabbed" in four months? That doesn't sound like a very ambitious target to me.
The clearing transition ends next summer.
It's going to be the anti big bang next summer if that isn't resolved.
- negative PCR test the day before travel
- antigen tests for all arrivals
If the antigen tests are all negative, then a simple 48 hour hotel visit is probably sufficient (with a negative PCR test a requirement for leaving.) I'd add one proviso: if anyone from a flight tests positive, then everyone on that flight needs to be considered at risk and needs to be quarantined for 14 days.
I think that would cut 99.9% of imported cases without being as onerous as the 14 days for all visitors proposals.
Navy, Army, Marines, or RAF?
In British elections the fact we're not a two party state means that people who don't approve of either party leader have a third or fourth party to vote for instead.
Apparently the Government considers that the advantages of regulatory divergence outweigh the additional access that would be gained from a closer alignment with EU rules.
The UK's biggest military humiliation nailed on, like Patay, Singapore, and Suez combined.
The policy should have been "lets hit the government with everything we've got on the border" and then focus groups should have been run to find the right messaging for that policy. Starmer has run focus groups to find policy ideas, it's why everything he says is bland and about three months too late.
You can never have Absolute Zero risk. Getting on a plane is itself a risk.
At some point the political control of policy-making, on this question, has to be taken away from the doctors who only want us to drink 0.4 units of alcohol a week, as there is a measurably increased risk of blah blah blah
https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/1359583937077608449
The Lib Dems lost seats across the board to the Tories, SNP and Labour. Labour and the SNP didn't win Lib Dem seats due to Cameron's net favourability.
In LD/Con seats they lost to Con because the LDs lost comprehensively.
In LD/Lab seats they lost to Lab because the LDs lost comprehensively.
In LD/SNP seats they lost to SNP because the LDs lost comprehensively.
Its not about Cameron, its about the LDs losing consistently across the board.
We'll just have to go for Article 16 then, which does seem to have been the plan all along.
https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1359616485681999874
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/eight-labour-officials-wales-suspended-19808228?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Won't hurt Starmer to nobble the cult.
https://twitter.com/abbydphillip/status/1359617020652908544
'What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.'
Recruitment was this month, so useful immunogenic results in May-June, perhaps?
--AS
With swords and everything.
And become mute.
Just occasionally beheading a member of the Shadow Cabinet. They would up their game - without a word being said.
"That Labour samurai guy - he's not somebody to mess with, is he? I could vote for him...."
I give it about thirty seconds.
Its almost as if they neither read nor understood it.
If the GOP Senators have any self-respect they'll struggle to vote to acquit.
However, even with a fast start the results won't be available until week 14 and then a week or so to compile the results, assuming they fill the trial quickly. That means it's going to 16 weeks from the 15th before the government can start doing mixed doses backed by human trials which takes us to the middle of May by which time 20m or so people will already have had both doses of either Pfizer/AZ and we'll have got Moderna and Novavax in place.
I actually see this as the UK government doing this research to help developing nations where record keeping will be difficult and ensuring that people get two doses of any vaccine is more important than making sure they are the same. If we can prove that it doesn't matter if they are the same then it's a huge deal for the whole world.
If the article wasn't meant to be exercised then why did the EU sign it? 🤔
We're also going to be able to look to Israel and see what "fully vaccinated" looks like by that point.
If new variants get into Israel and spread like wildfire among the vaccinated population, then sure, worry. But if Israel is basically Covid free at the end of March (except for in communities that are sceptical of the modern world) then we should take it as a sign.
We'll know we're going to be free, and sooner rather than later.
Or only the specific combination tested upon?
NYTimes