I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
Speaking from Bridlington on Monday, where he is in the process of dismantling hundreds of lobster crates, Baron said: “All we have had is bullshit from the government, promises that haven’t been kept. I am winding up the business while I still have enough to pay redundancy to my staff...
My mental model of what happens, which is very possibly completely wrong because immunology is a strange and complex discipline that causes problems for even those who have studied it for years and I'm just some guy on the internet who has got a layman's idea of what goes on from being curious during this pandemic:
- Antibodies patrol the bloodstream that are targeted at various viruses. the level of these depends on the level of "risk" your immune system perceives so drops off over time. If a virus that is targeted comes along, these things flock to it and gum up the bit that tries to invade cells (the spike, with coronavirus), making it so it can't even latch on and get to work. This is referred to as "sterilising immunity" and means the virus essentially bounces off.
- T-cells, in two types, also wander around. These keep going. Some randomly knock on cells "doors" and ask them to show what's inside; if the cell has a "dodgy" thing inside (the T-cell compares with a list it keeps of trophies from previous encounters) it orders the cell to instantly self destruct, and the cell must comply. This is "fighting the virus" when it's around and reduces the level of damage the virus can do if your T-cells are armed with the correct list and patrolling regularly. I visualise grizzled versions of Judge Dredd ("I AM the immunity!")
- The second type goes scurrying off to B-cells, which are antibody factories, and orders them to start churning out more of those antibodies seen above. This prevents any virus that's already wandering through the system from getting much further.
All very simplified and quite possibly completely wrong.
The vaccines power up both the T-cells and get the antibodies going. Because the SA variant has adjusted its spike, the antibodies are less effective at gumming it up, so can still often get through even when they're swamping it. They'll take out some of them, of course, and lower the viral concentration, which will help the T-cells with the level of activity needed.
The T-cells, however, are still effective, so while the virus doesn't "bounce off" and gets further than hoped, it still runs into the problem of the Judge Dredd T-cells, which make the challenge of getting far enough to cause serious damage so much harder.
Those who know far more will probably laugh at all that and be able to adjust it to what the real status is.
I know much less than you but, for what it is worth, that is my understanding too.
Liking the sound of those T-cells, I must say. Terrific little things.
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
China spies update. Further to the Times report mentioned on the last thread (or possibly the one before) today sees the publication of this Civitas report on the subject (which I've not had time to read). It can be downloaded as a pdf from the link below.
• This report draws attention to the little-analysed but pervasive presence of Chinese military-linked conglomerates and universities in the sponsorship of high-technology research centres in many leading UK universities.
• In many cases, these UK universities are unintentionally generating research that is sponsored by and may be of use to China’s military conglomerates, including those with activities in the production of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as well as hypersonic missiles, in which China is involved in a new arms race and seeks ‘massively destabilising’ weaponry.
• Much of this research is entirely based at UK universities, while other research outputs include cooperation with researchers in China, often at the military-linked universities or companies sponsoring the UK research centre.
• Many of the research projects will have a civilian use, and UK-based researchers will be unaware of a possible dual use that might lead to a contribution to China’s military industries.
• This report illustrates how 15 of the 24 Russell Group universities and many other UK academic bodies have productive research relationships with Chinese military-linked manufacturers and universities. Much of the research at the university centres and laboratories is also being sponsored by the UK taxpayer through research councils, Innovate UK, and the Royal Society https://www.civitas.org.uk/publications/inadvertently-arming-china/
@TheScreamingEagles will surely be unsurprised that China has not bothered with that academic backwater at Cowley.
My lecturer in East Asian Politics at Auckland University in 97/98 was alleged in the Financial Times a few years ago to be a spy.
Johnson is refusing to rule out a lockdown extension.
Panicky Hancock presser at 5...
Over a week-end, we are now almost at the post vaccine lockdown stage.
So...about those pubs....
WTF are you withering on about today?
We are not post vaccine by any means of the imagination. Getting the first dose to over 70 year olds is a very good first part of the vaccination process, but it's just under a quarter of the vulnerable doses that need to be done.
I doubt even you would deny there is an attempt today to discredit the vaccine program as a way out of lockdown. By some in the media and some in SAGE. The government? who knows.
Bit Johnson refused to rule out a lockdown extension, even though we are ahead of schedule in vaccination, and on every measure the disease is receding.
The facts have changed for the worse, and people have recognised that. The world does not owe you a "yes" to your constant refrain of "are we nearly there yet?" Things are what they are.
What a credulous person you are, Ishmael.
SAGE could tell you to stick your head up your backside and you would be kissing your own ring before any of us could say jack robinson.
The government has taken away many freedoms our forebears fought and died for. They put 67 million people under house arrest. They do owe us that explanation. Big time. Yesterday.
Fantastic Speccie article on how the vaccine issue played out in government...
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/secrets-of-the-vaccine-taskforces-success "The foreign press coverage has turned from mockery to awe, with Britain having vaccinated more people than France, Germany, Italy and Spain put together. Many of those behind this success are virtually unknown to the public. Their story matters, because the Vaccine Taskforce is already being looked to by ministers as a model for how government should work once the pandemic is over.
"Sir Patrick – backed by Dominic Cummings – went to the Prime Minister and said that a vaccine tsar should be appointed so as to avoid repeating old mistakes. The Chancellor agreed – as a former investor with portfolio he believed a hawkish approach on contracts was necessary, even if it carried risk levels that led Treasury officials to describe it as 'an extremely unusual programme'. ‘They needed someone with immense private expertise — a dealmaker,’ says an aide.
"In many ways, Kate Bingham was an obvious choice. An established venture capitalist, she has spent her career investing in pharma companies."
Very interesting indeed:
But her appointment also led to charges of cronyism: she’s married to Jesse Norman, a Treasury minister, and was at school with Rachel Johnson, the Prime Minister’s sister. ‘Boris picked Kate,’ says one minister. ‘It was his big contribution.’
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
There is a horrible calculation to be made by the government (not the CMO) about the balance between likely deaths and economic activity and the country's "normal-ish" status.
An extra 10k deaths would normally, in a bad flu year, not figure in these calculations - indeed no flu deaths would. This of course is not normal, nor is it "the flu". But the govt must nevertheless deal in this very very challenging currency.
Shit. The truly alarming thing there is what I feared most: past infection with ‘normal’ Covid provides no immunity against SA Covid. This bug is Satanic
If the Safferbug runs riot in the UK this spring we will be back to square one. They won’t be able to tweak any of the vaccines in time. People will catch it again who’ve already had it. People vaxxed with AZ will also get it. Hopefully they will only get mild/moderate cases, but we don’t know that yet, for sure.
I don’t want to come over all Black Rook but this is ominous. To me it suggests lockdown until Autumn. And yet I just don’t think the economy can hack that, or the nation’s mental health. So what gives?
It’s a setback, but you are probably going too far.
The sample size in the new study was small. Of 1749 participants, 42 got sick, of whom 19 had the vaccine and 23 had a placebo, producing an efficacy figure of just 22 per cent.
However, no one became severely ill or died.
That is partly because participants were young – average age 31 – but also because while the vaccine doesn’t appear to prompt a significant immune response in the form of antibodies specific to 501Y.V2, it does still boost a broader immune response in the form of T cells. That also appears to be true of reinfection.
So AstraZeneca believes its vaccine still offers protection against serious illness and death from the variant. The same, with respect to T-Cells, will likely be true of reinfection.
In any case, South Africa has shipments of the Pfizer, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson vaccines on order, and all appear to provide protection against the variant, including among over 65s.o.
Finally, if you want some good news from South Africa, look at their case numbers and mortality over the last six weeks. Dropping like a rock.
Yes, the drop in cases and deaths in SA is encouraging. No one seems entirely sure why. Herd immunity in townships has been posited. Tho I also note the SA health minister is warning of a third wave
There is no mystery about the falling case numbers in South Africa. They started a lockdown at the end of December, and surprise surprise, cases peaked around two weeks later.
You’re wrong, I believe. There is some mystery because the lockdown basically didn’t happen in the townships, because it is impossible to social distance/isolate or practice great hygiene in these densely populated, impoverished places. Yet still cases have crashed. Hence the herd immunity theory, tho it is just a theory, I admit
Similar things have happened in India. Which is even poorer, and more crowded. Cases have just fallen away (long before any vaccines arrived)
Mr Murrell less than convincing today, it has to be said.
The suggested referral is ironic given that the Crown Office is itself in the murk up to its oxters, with calls for the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe, to resign over the Rangers shambles.
It's all getting very banana republic up here. Maybe that should be turnip republic, in deference to malc?
How the hell does this not all massively blow up, a few weeks before the elections in Scotland?
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
I'm sure he'll delete this eventually like he did his 'Trump is no fascist and only the woke say he is' tweets.
China spies update. Further to the Times report mentioned on the last thread (or possibly the one before) today sees the publication of this Civitas report on the subject (which I've not had time to read). It can be downloaded as a pdf from the link below.
• This report draws attention to the little-analysed but pervasive presence of Chinese military-linked conglomerates and universities in the sponsorship of high-technology research centres in many leading UK universities.
• In many cases, these UK universities are unintentionally generating research that is sponsored by and may be of use to China’s military conglomerates, including those with activities in the production of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as well as hypersonic missiles, in which China is involved in a new arms race and seeks ‘massively destabilising’ weaponry.
• Much of this research is entirely based at UK universities, while other research outputs include cooperation with researchers in China, often at the military-linked universities or companies sponsoring the UK research centre.
• Many of the research projects will have a civilian use, and UK-based researchers will be unaware of a possible dual use that might lead to a contribution to China’s military industries.
• This report illustrates how 15 of the 24 Russell Group universities and many other UK academic bodies have productive research relationships with Chinese military-linked manufacturers and universities. Much of the research at the university centres and laboratories is also being sponsored by the UK taxpayer through research councils, Innovate UK, and the Royal Society https://www.civitas.org.uk/publications/inadvertently-arming-china/
@TheScreamingEagles will surely be unsurprised that China has not bothered with that academic backwater at Cowley.
After the disastrous news about the Oxford vaccine, you can understand why.
China spies update. Further to the Times report mentioned on the last thread (or possibly the one before) today sees the publication of this Civitas report on the subject (which I've not had time to read). It can be downloaded as a pdf from the link below.
• This report draws attention to the little-analysed but pervasive presence of Chinese military-linked conglomerates and universities in the sponsorship of high-technology research centres in many leading UK universities.
• In many cases, these UK universities are unintentionally generating research that is sponsored by and may be of use to China’s military conglomerates, including those with activities in the production of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as well as hypersonic missiles, in which China is involved in a new arms race and seeks ‘massively destabilising’ weaponry.
• Much of this research is entirely based at UK universities, while other research outputs include cooperation with researchers in China, often at the military-linked universities or companies sponsoring the UK research centre.
• Many of the research projects will have a civilian use, and UK-based researchers will be unaware of a possible dual use that might lead to a contribution to China’s military industries.
• This report illustrates how 15 of the 24 Russell Group universities and many other UK academic bodies have productive research relationships with Chinese military-linked manufacturers and universities. Much of the research at the university centres and laboratories is also being sponsored by the UK taxpayer through research councils, Innovate UK, and the Royal Society https://www.civitas.org.uk/publications/inadvertently-arming-china/
@TheScreamingEagles will surely be unsurprised that China has not bothered with that academic backwater at Cowley.
My lecturer in East Asian Politics at Auckland University in 97/98 was alleged in the Financial Times a few years ago to be a spy.
China spies update. Further to the Times report mentioned on the last thread (or possibly the one before) today sees the publication of this Civitas report on the subject (which I've not had time to read). It can be downloaded as a pdf from the link below.
• This report draws attention to the little-analysed but pervasive presence of Chinese military-linked conglomerates and universities in the sponsorship of high-technology research centres in many leading UK universities.
• In many cases, these UK universities are unintentionally generating research that is sponsored by and may be of use to China’s military conglomerates, including those with activities in the production of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as well as hypersonic missiles, in which China is involved in a new arms race and seeks ‘massively destabilising’ weaponry.
• Much of this research is entirely based at UK universities, while other research outputs include cooperation with researchers in China, often at the military-linked universities or companies sponsoring the UK research centre.
• Many of the research projects will have a civilian use, and UK-based researchers will be unaware of a possible dual use that might lead to a contribution to China’s military industries.
• This report illustrates how 15 of the 24 Russell Group universities and many other UK academic bodies have productive research relationships with Chinese military-linked manufacturers and universities. Much of the research at the university centres and laboratories is also being sponsored by the UK taxpayer through research councils, Innovate UK, and the Royal Society https://www.civitas.org.uk/publications/inadvertently-arming-china/
@TheScreamingEagles will surely be unsurprised that China has not bothered with that academic backwater at Cowley.
After the disastrous news about the Oxford vaccine, you can understand why.
Aren't they talking about prosecutions? this is a big story coming up.
China spies update. Further to the Times report mentioned on the last thread (or possibly the one before) today sees the publication of this Civitas report on the subject (which I've not had time to read). It can be downloaded as a pdf from the link below.
• This report draws attention to the little-analysed but pervasive presence of Chinese military-linked conglomerates and universities in the sponsorship of high-technology research centres in many leading UK universities.
• In many cases, these UK universities are unintentionally generating research that is sponsored by and may be of use to China’s military conglomerates, including those with activities in the production of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as well as hypersonic missiles, in which China is involved in a new arms race and seeks ‘massively destabilising’ weaponry.
• Much of this research is entirely based at UK universities, while other research outputs include cooperation with researchers in China, often at the military-linked universities or companies sponsoring the UK research centre.
• Many of the research projects will have a civilian use, and UK-based researchers will be unaware of a possible dual use that might lead to a contribution to China’s military industries.
• This report illustrates how 15 of the 24 Russell Group universities and many other UK academic bodies have productive research relationships with Chinese military-linked manufacturers and universities. Much of the research at the university centres and laboratories is also being sponsored by the UK taxpayer through research councils, Innovate UK, and the Royal Society https://www.civitas.org.uk/publications/inadvertently-arming-china/
@TheScreamingEagles will surely be unsurprised that China has not bothered with that academic backwater at Cowley.
China Spies Update
"Researchers at Cambridge have cooperated in research on gyroscope's with researchers from China..."
Well, that doesn't look like a very strong piece of evidence.
It is a bit like saying research on vitamins with China is contributing to the military effort as it is making their service personnel healthy.
Mr Murrell less than convincing today, it has to be said.
The suggested referral is ironic given that the Crown Office is itself in the murk up to its oxters, with calls for the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe, to resign over the Rangers shambles.
It's all getting very banana republic up here. Maybe that should be turnip republic, in deference to malc?
How the hell does this not all massively blow up, a few weeks before the elections in Scotland?
Because like the Schleswig Holstein question, nobody can understand what the hell is going on except some guy who is mad, and some other bod who died.
I do wish someone like Keir would come out and ask questions about governance in Scotland.
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
How very awful of him. How on earth will the remaining 99% of academics in the social sciences who are anti-government, pro-woke shills survive?
He needs to learn that heretical thought will simply not be tolerated around here!
Shit. The truly alarming thing there is what I feared most: past infection with ‘normal’ Covid provides no immunity against SA Covid. This bug is Satanic
If the Safferbug runs riot in the UK this spring we will be back to square one. They won’t be able to tweak any of the vaccines in time. People will catch it again who’ve already had it. People vaxxed with AZ will also get it. Hopefully they will only get mild/moderate cases, but we don’t know that yet, for sure.
I don’t want to come over all Black Rook but this is ominous. To me it suggests lockdown until Autumn. And yet I just don’t think the economy can hack that, or the nation’s mental health. So what gives?
It’s a setback, but you are probably going too far.
The sample size in the new study was small. Of 1749 participants, 42 got sick, of whom 19 had the vaccine and 23 had a placebo, producing an efficacy figure of just 22 per cent.
However, no one became severely ill or died.
That is partly because participants were young – average age 31 – but also because while the vaccine doesn’t appear to prompt a significant immune response in the form of antibodies specific to 501Y.V2, it does still boost a broader immune response in the form of T cells. That also appears to be true of reinfection.
So AstraZeneca believes its vaccine still offers protection against serious illness and death from the variant. The same, with respect to T-Cells, will likely be true of reinfection.
In any case, South Africa has shipments of the Pfizer, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson vaccines on order, and all appear to provide protection against the variant, including among over 65s.o.
Finally, if you want some good news from South Africa, look at their case numbers and mortality over the last six weeks. Dropping like a rock.
Yes, the drop in cases and deaths in SA is encouraging. No one seems entirely sure why. Herd immunity in townships has been posited. Tho I also note the SA health minister is warning of a third wave
There is no mystery about the falling case numbers in South Africa. They started a lockdown at the end of December, and surprise surprise, cases peaked around two weeks later.
You’re wrong, I believe. There is some mystery because the lockdown basically didn’t happen in the townships, because it is impossible to social distance/isolate or practice great hygiene in these densely populated, impoverished places. Yet still cases have crashed. Hence the herd immunity theory, tho it is just a theory, I admit
Similar things have happened in India. Which is even poorer, and more crowded. Cases have just fallen away (long before any vaccines arrived)
Mr Murrell less than convincing today, it has to be said.
The suggested referral is ironic given that the Crown Office is itself in the murk up to its oxters, with calls for the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe, to resign over the Rangers shambles.
It's all getting very banana republic up here. Maybe that should be turnip republic, in deference to malc?
How the hell does this not all massively blow up, a few weeks before the elections in Scotland?
I love this line - from Murrell about Salmond’s casual visit
“I just thought he was popping in for a chat about, you know, any, any matter.”
There are times when the most anodyne words simply scream: I AM LYING
Mr Murrell less than convincing today, it has to be said.
The suggested referral is ironic given that the Crown Office is itself in the murk up to its oxters, with calls for the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe, to resign over the Rangers shambles.
It's all getting very banana republic up here. Maybe that should be turnip republic, in deference to malc?
How the hell does this not all massively blow up, a few weeks before the elections in Scotland?
I wonder if it is just like Coulson.
Some very political people said the same, said it would cause Dave's resignation yet the country didn't care as their focus was on school'n'hospitals.
I remember hearing that the Tory pollsters as well as other pollsters asked the question 'Which news story have you paid the most attention to this week' and even at the height of phone hacking/Coulson's resignation you'd get a maximum of 1 or 2 people saying phone hacking out of 2,000.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
There is a horrible calculation to be made by the government (not the CMO) about the balance between likely deaths and economic activity and the country's "normal-ish" status.
An extra 10k deaths would normally, in a bad flu year, not figure in these calculations - indeed no flu deaths would. This of course is not normal, nor is it "the flu". But the govt must nevertheless deal in this very very challenging currency.
We must learn to live with and accept a back-ground "radiation" of deaths due to Covid19 and any mutations thereof. C19 cannot and never will be "eradicated" - we will learn more to minimise via vaccine and "cure" patients with it, but deaths will not and never will be stopped due to it.
Professor Robert Dingwall, who sits on the government's expert Nervtag group (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) suggests people should not be alarmed.
"It's very hard to see why this study has generated so much publicity unless people are looking actively for bad news stories," he said.
He emphasises how small the study is, and cites "massive degrees of uncertainty around the result".
"This is really not a piece of work that should command any great respect or confidence, obviously it's worth following up and taking a closer look at things.
"But the idea that this one small piece of work should be used to jeopardise public confidence or to provoke a major shift in policy is really just a little bit absurd."
Fantastic Speccie article on how the vaccine issue played out in government...
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/secrets-of-the-vaccine-taskforces-success "The foreign press coverage has turned from mockery to awe, with Britain having vaccinated more people than France, Germany, Italy and Spain put together. Many of those behind this success are virtually unknown to the public. Their story matters, because the Vaccine Taskforce is already being looked to by ministers as a model for how government should work once the pandemic is over.
"Sir Patrick – backed by Dominic Cummings – went to the Prime Minister and said that a vaccine tsar should be appointed so as to avoid repeating old mistakes. The Chancellor agreed – as a former investor with portfolio he believed a hawkish approach on contracts was necessary, even if it carried risk levels that led Treasury officials to describe it as 'an extremely unusual programme'. ‘They needed someone with immense private expertise — a dealmaker,’ says an aide.
"In many ways, Kate Bingham was an obvious choice. An established venture capitalist, she has spent her career investing in pharma companies."
Very interesting indeed:
But her appointment also led to charges of cronyism: she’s married to Jesse Norman, a Treasury minister, and was at school with Rachel Johnson, the Prime Minister’s sister. ‘Boris picked Kate,’ says one minister. ‘It was his big contribution.’
His sister picked Kate. The real "Boris" added value was cracking the joke that Wockhardt Ltd in Wrexham were so named because "they like to work hard". This lightened the tension and raised morale at a critical time.
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Mr Murrell less than convincing today, it has to be said.
The suggested referral is ironic given that the Crown Office is itself in the murk up to its oxters, with calls for the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe, to resign over the Rangers shambles.
It's all getting very banana republic up here. Maybe that should be turnip republic, in deference to malc?
How the hell does this not all massively blow up, a few weeks before the elections in Scotland?
My understanding is that the inquiry will have to close down shortly. So ScotGov/SNP basically trying to close it down through obfuscation.
Big question is what does Salmond do? Latest I saw was that he was not going to present himself tomorrow as he was at risk of being prosecuted if he brought forward certain evidence. Some talk of him hosting a presser instead. Watch this space.
It's pretty obvious that there is something going off, but my best guess is that it is a slow-fuse which will ignite the ordnance sometime after the election. But, really, who can say?
Johnson is refusing to rule out a lockdown extension.
Panicky Hancock presser at 5...
Over a week-end, we are now almost at the post vaccine lockdown stage.
So...about those pubs....
WTF are you withering on about today?
We are not post vaccine by any means of the imagination. Getting the first dose to over 70 year olds is a very good first part of the vaccination process, but it's just under a quarter of the vulnerable doses that need to be done.
I doubt even you would deny there is an attempt today to discredit the vaccine program as a way out of lockdown. By some in the media and some in SAGE. The government? who knows.
Bit Johnson refused to rule out a lockdown extension, even though we are ahead of schedule in vaccination, and on every measure the disease is receding.
The facts have changed for the worse, and people have recognised that. The world does not owe you a "yes" to your constant refrain of "are we nearly there yet?" Things are what they are.
What a credulous person you are, Ishmael.
SAGE could tell you to stick your head up your backside and you would be kissing your own ring before any of us could say jack robinson.
The government has taken away many freedoms our forebears fought and died for. They put 67 million people under house arrest. They do owe us that explanation. Big time. Yesterday.
Oh no. We are under 'house arrest' - I hadn't realised. I'm quite vulnerable to the disease, and I've been out four times today. Are 'they' going to arrest me?
You talk utter nonsense. 67 million under house arrest - bollocks.
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Yep I'm sure that's it. Just seems v strange. Next door Melton is no change but as you say, Rutland is tiny.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
Sure, I'm not advocating for a loosening right now, far from it. I am simply saying that the goal has to be normal life above all.
Mr Murrell less than convincing today, it has to be said.
The suggested referral is ironic given that the Crown Office is itself in the murk up to its oxters, with calls for the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe, to resign over the Rangers shambles.
It's all getting very banana republic up here. Maybe that should be turnip republic, in deference to malc?
How the hell does this not all massively blow up, a few weeks before the elections in Scotland?
Because like the Schleswig Holstein question, nobody can understand what the hell is going on except some guy who is mad, and some other bod who died.
I do wish someone like Keir would come out and ask questions about governance in Scotland.
Isn’t there an Ombudsman who can step in?
I don't know about Scotland, but the Welsh Ombudsman (Nick Bennett) was appointed by Labour.
He is a Labour Party Member and previously shared a flat with a Labour AM and ran a business with a Labour AM. He also does not understand the meaning of the phrase "possible conflict of interest".
So, he is a complete waste of space if you are criticising a Labour politician, a Labour Council or the Labour Government.
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Shit. The truly alarming thing there is what I feared most: past infection with ‘normal’ Covid provides no immunity against SA Covid. This bug is Satanic
If the Safferbug runs riot in the UK this spring we will be back to square one. They won’t be able to tweak any of the vaccines in time. People will catch it again who’ve already had it. People vaxxed with AZ will also get it. Hopefully they will only get mild/moderate cases, but we don’t know that yet, for sure.
I don’t want to come over all Black Rook but this is ominous. To me it suggests lockdown until Autumn. And yet I just don’t think the economy can hack that, or the nation’s mental health. So what gives?
It’s a setback, but you are probably going too far.
The sample size in the new study was small. Of 1749 participants, 42 got sick, of whom 19 had the vaccine and 23 had a placebo, producing an efficacy figure of just 22 per cent.
However, no one became severely ill or died.
That is partly because participants were young – average age 31 – but also because while the vaccine doesn’t appear to prompt a significant immune response in the form of antibodies specific to 501Y.V2, it does still boost a broader immune response in the form of T cells. That also appears to be true of reinfection.
So AstraZeneca believes its vaccine still offers protection against serious illness and death from the variant. The same, with respect to T-Cells, will likely be true of reinfection.
In any case, South Africa has shipments of the Pfizer, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson vaccines on order, and all appear to provide protection against the variant, including among over 65s.o.
Finally, if you want some good news from South Africa, look at their case numbers and mortality over the last six weeks. Dropping like a rock.
Yes, the drop in cases and deaths in SA is encouraging. No one seems entirely sure why. Herd immunity in townships has been posited. Tho I also note the SA health minister is warning of a third wave
There is no mystery about the falling case numbers in South Africa. They started a lockdown at the end of December, and surprise surprise, cases peaked around two weeks later.
You’re wrong, I believe. There is some mystery because the lockdown basically didn’t happen in the townships, because it is impossible to social distance/isolate or practice great hygiene in these densely populated, impoverished places. Yet still cases have crashed. Hence the herd immunity theory, tho it is just a theory, I admit
Similar things have happened in India. Which is even poorer, and more crowded. Cases have just fallen away (long before any vaccines arrived)
An interesting point well made, but.... India? Have you been to cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Calcutta?
I don’t see how you could possibly lockdown strictly in those enormous slums, and as for hygiene...
For comparison, America’s largest city in 1918 was nyc, with a population of 5m. Mumbai has a population of 18m
America’s 2nd largest city in 1918 was Chicago - 2.6m. New Delhi has a population of 16m
I've been to Mumbai (stayed for a while with a friend from uni and his parents - he grew up there and I saw, I think, a fair bit, although he was from an affluent family). I haven't been to any 1918 US cities
There are of course many differences. Is stopping spread through Mumbai on average harder than stopping spread in 1918 Chicago? All I'm saying is that I don't know. There will be bits where it's more or less impossible and bits (where my friend's family lived) where it's easier than in poorer parts of UK/US cities today. We'd be horrified to visit the darker bits of 1918 Chicago today, I'm sure.
I suspect the stats on the poorer bits are also much worse, both in testing for cases and labeling deaths as Covid, so the wealthier bits might dominate the reported figures.
I'm not saying you're wrong, just that you're wrong (well, lack evidence) to say @Gaussian is wrong
Shit. The truly alarming thing there is what I feared most: past infection with ‘normal’ Covid provides no immunity against SA Covid. This bug is Satanic
If the Safferbug runs riot in the UK this spring we will be back to square one. They won’t be able to tweak any of the vaccines in time. People will catch it again who’ve already had it. People vaxxed with AZ will also get it. Hopefully they will only get mild/moderate cases, but we don’t know that yet, for sure.
I don’t want to come over all Black Rook but this is ominous. To me it suggests lockdown until Autumn. And yet I just don’t think the economy can hack that, or the nation’s mental health. So what gives?
It’s a setback, but you are probably going too far.
The sample size in the new study was small. Of 1749 participants, 42 got sick, of whom 19 had the vaccine and 23 had a placebo, producing an efficacy figure of just 22 per cent.
However, no one became severely ill or died.
That is partly because participants were young – average age 31 – but also because while the vaccine doesn’t appear to prompt a significant immune response in the form of antibodies specific to 501Y.V2, it does still boost a broader immune response in the form of T cells. That also appears to be true of reinfection.
So AstraZeneca believes its vaccine still offers protection against serious illness and death from the variant. The same, with respect to T-Cells, will likely be true of reinfection.
In any case, South Africa has shipments of the Pfizer, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson vaccines on order, and all appear to provide protection against the variant, including among over 65s.o.
Finally, if you want some good news from South Africa, look at their case numbers and mortality over the last six weeks. Dropping like a rock.
Yes, the drop in cases and deaths in SA is encouraging. No one seems entirely sure why. Herd immunity in townships has been posited. Tho I also note the SA health minister is warning of a third wave
There is no mystery about the falling case numbers in South Africa. They started a lockdown at the end of December, and surprise surprise, cases peaked around two weeks later.
You’re wrong, I believe. There is some mystery because the lockdown basically didn’t happen in the townships, because it is impossible to social distance/isolate or practice great hygiene in these densely populated, impoverished places. Yet still cases have crashed. Hence the herd immunity theory, tho it is just a theory, I admit
Similar things have happened in India. Which is even poorer, and more crowded. Cases have just fallen away (long before any vaccines arrived)
An interesting point well made, but.... India? Have you been to cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Calcutta?
I don’t see how you could possibly lockdown strictly in those enormous slums, and as for hygiene...
For comparison, America’s largest city in 1918 was nyc, with a population of 5m. Mumbai has a population of 18m
America’s 2nd largest city in 1918 was Chicago - 2.6m. New Delhi has a population of 16m
Yes, yes, but can they bat?
They can, but they use different bats.
More on topic, what's the governance structure of the Crown Office, is there any UK institution that can manage the problems without nuclear options such as the suspension of Holyrood?
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Johnson is refusing to rule out a lockdown extension.
Panicky Hancock presser at 5...
Over a week-end, we are now almost at the post vaccine lockdown stage.
So...about those pubs....
WTF are you withering on about today?
We are not post vaccine by any means of the imagination. Getting the first dose to over 70 year olds is a very good first part of the vaccination process, but it's just under a quarter of the vulnerable doses that need to be done.
I doubt even you would deny there is an attempt today to discredit the vaccine program as a way out of lockdown. By some in the media and some in SAGE. The government? who knows.
Bit Johnson refused to rule out a lockdown extension, even though we are ahead of schedule in vaccination, and on every measure the disease is receding.
The facts have changed for the worse, and people have recognised that. The world does not owe you a "yes" to your constant refrain of "are we nearly there yet?" Things are what they are.
What a credulous person you are, Ishmael.
SAGE could tell you to stick your head up your backside and you would be kissing your own ring before any of us could say jack robinson.
The government has taken away many freedoms our forebears fought and died for. They put 67 million people under house arrest. They do owe us that explanation. Big time. Yesterday.
Oh no. We are under 'house arrest' - I hadn't realised. I'm quite vulnerable to the disease, and I've been out four times today. Are 'they' going to arrest me?
You talk utter nonsense. 67 million under house arrest - bollocks.
I think it is entirely right that when the government is dictating who you can and cannot have sex with, amongst other things, that there are many voices who constantly ask "why?"
That is not to say the reason will not be a valid one.
Johnson is refusing to rule out a lockdown extension.
Panicky Hancock presser at 5...
Over a week-end, we are now almost at the post vaccine lockdown stage.
So...about those pubs....
WTF are you withering on about today?
We are not post vaccine by any means of the imagination. Getting the first dose to over 70 year olds is a very good first part of the vaccination process, but it's just under a quarter of the vulnerable doses that need to be done.
I doubt even you would deny there is an attempt today to discredit the vaccine program as a way out of lockdown. By some in the media and some in SAGE. The government? who knows.
Bit Johnson refused to rule out a lockdown extension, even though we are ahead of schedule in vaccination, and on every measure the disease is receding.
Yes I would deny it.
There may be an effort to say don't be a dingbat and we aren't out of the woods yet, but that's neither here nor there as far as vaccinations being the endgame of this.
The disease is receding and the vaccinations are being rolled out which means the plan is working. Despite your misgivings. That you want to take the fact things are going right as evidence things are going wrong says it all.
Professor Robert Dingwall, who sits on the government's expert Nervtag group (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) suggests people should not be alarmed.
"It's very hard to see why this study has generated so much publicity unless people are looking actively for bad news stories," he said.
He emphasises how small the study is, and cites "massive degrees of uncertainty around the result".
"This is really not a piece of work that should command any great respect or confidence, obviously it's worth following up and taking a closer look at things.
"But the idea that this one small piece of work should be used to jeopardise public confidence or to provoke a major shift in policy is really just a little bit absurd."
Despite this I fully expect 20 questions from the media at 5pm asking if the UK has messed up vaccine programme, do we need to change immediately, should we stop using AZN, and can we go to Greece for.my summer holidays, because cottages in the Cotswolds are too expensive.
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Bassetlaw had a big outbreak at the prison near Retford here - showed up as over a hundred in 1 day obviously those can be contained better than most !
Mr Murrell less than convincing today, it has to be said.
The suggested referral is ironic given that the Crown Office is itself in the murk up to its oxters, with calls for the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe, to resign over the Rangers shambles.
It's all getting very banana republic up here. Maybe that should be turnip republic, in deference to malc?
How the hell does this not all massively blow up, a few weeks before the elections in Scotland?
Because like the Schleswig Holstein question, nobody can understand what the hell is going on except some guy who is mad, and some other bod who died.
I do wish someone like Keir would come out and ask questions about governance in Scotland.
Isn’t there an Ombudsman who can step in?
I don't know about Scotland, but the Welsh Ombudsman (Nick Bennett) was appointed by Labour.
He is a Labour Party Member and previously shared a flat with a Labour AM and ran a business with a Labour AM. He also does not understand the meaning of the phrase "possible conflict of interest".
So, he is a complete waste of space if you are criticising a Labour politician, a Labour Council or the Labour Government.
Well precisely my fear. We a turning into a banana republic. It makes me sick.
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
How very awful of him. How on earth will the remaining 99% of academics in the social sciences who are anti-government, pro-woke shills survive?
He needs to learn that heretical thought will simply not be tolerated around here!
That's well below your normal high standard - your 99% figure is just gross exaggeration. 80% maybe I'd have given you. Anyway, even you must admit that Goodwin's line on everything has become tediously predictable.
Is this correct from the thread header ? ...This leads to extremely effective vaccines. When Oxford/AstraZeneca used a Chimpanzee virus to make their vaccine, they relied on altering an existing virus so it looked enough like Covid to fool the body’s immune system. But the tolerances are always small with this kind of approach, because the adapted virus still had to carry a bunch of genetic material related to the original (Chimpanzee) virus...
That's not how the Oxford vaccine works. It uses a modified chimpanzee virus as a carrier so that it's not recognised by the immune system. The virus is replication incompetent, but get's into human calls, which it them instructs to produce copies of the spike protein, as do the mRNA vaccines. It is the copies of the spike proteins produced by the vaccinated patient's cells which stimulate the immune system in both cases.
In terms of modifications to the vaccine, you're still altering a DNA template with a different version of the spike protein, so again not a wildly different process from modifying the mRNA vaccines.
The manufacturing process is, of course, very different, and it's easier to reuse the mRNA delivery technology in subjects who've already been exposed to it, as the lipid package isn't going to be recognised by the immune system in the way that previous exposure to a viral vector is going to prime it to recognise that reused vector.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
Sure, I'm not advocating for a loosening right now, far from it. I am simply saying that the goal has to be normal life above all.
Yes, I think that's what people are losing sight of, the SAGE types especially. We must have a plan to return to the old normal. Not summer 2020 "normal", the old normal with late night bars, clubs, no social distancing and the ability to meet perfect strangers on a daily basis without needing to wear a mask.
We must be able to deliver that by the middle of the summer of this year and have a plan to ensure we don't lose it over the winter of 2021, if that means mass producing vaccines and giving everyone booster shots over September and October then lets plan for that now.
When the virus mutates and a new vaccine is manufactured to deal with the new spike or whatever it targets then does that new adjusted vaccine need to go through Phase III and all the other trials again, like the first one did, or can it be used immediately?
Given that the trials were the time consuming element prior to manufacture, how much time can be saved on new vaccinations?
Does that differ between mRNA and tradition Oxford style vaccinations?
It can be used immediately*, hence why we don't trial the flu vaccine every year.
* Pfizer's manufacturing process takes 60 days, so that is the key lead time
Thanks RCS that is great news!
So where is the line drawn between a new variant of a vaccine that can be used immediately and a new vaccine that requires full trials?
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Oh wow, I never even knew there was a prison in Rutland. It's right at the northern corner of the county, thankfully well away from my parents in Uppingham - not that they've met another human in weeks, apart from their trips to the vaccine centre.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
Sure, I'm not advocating for a loosening right now, far from it. I am simply saying that the goal has to be normal life above all.
Yes, I think that's what people are losing sight of, the SAGE types especially. We must have a plan to return to the old normal. Not summer 2020 "normal", the old normal with late night bars, clubs, no social distancing and the ability to meet perfect strangers on a daily basis without needing to wear a mask.
We must be able to deliver that by the middle of the summer of this year and have a plan to ensure we don't lose it over the winter of 2021, if that means mass producing vaccines and giving everyone booster shots over September and October then lets plan for that now.
And if the only way to secure that in this country is to quarantine at the border until the rest of the world catches up then JFDI.
Holidays domestically during a pandemic is better than constantly shutting down everyone's daily lives.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
Sure, I'm not advocating for a loosening right now, far from it. I am simply saying that the goal has to be normal life above all.
Yes, I think that's what people are losing sight of, the SAGE types especially. We must have a plan to return to the old normal. Not summer 2020 "normal", the old normal with late night bars, clubs, no social distancing and the ability to meet perfect strangers on a daily basis without needing to wear a mask.
We must be able to deliver that by the middle of the summer of this year and have a plan to ensure we don't lose it over the winter of 2021, if that means mass producing vaccines and giving everyone booster shots over September and October then lets plan for that now.
And if the only way to secure that in this country is to quarantine at the border until the rest of the world catches up then JFDI.
Holidays domestically during a pandemic is better than constantly shutting down everyone's daily lives.
Absolutely. I say that as someone who can't wait to jet off to Puglia for wine, beaches and escaping this bullshit.
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
Is he one of those types that have been radicalised online? Though perhaps there's been a bit of de-radicalising going on given he's deleted tweets relating to Trump.
Vaccination news: Wor Lass just had a call from the GP - appointment for a jab on Wednesday. Having a chronic medical condition occasionally has its advantages. (Having to shield with me for 3 months was one of the downsides)
Mr Murrell less than convincing today, it has to be said.
The suggested referral is ironic given that the Crown Office is itself in the murk up to its oxters, with calls for the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe, to resign over the Rangers shambles.
It's all getting very banana republic up here. Maybe that should be turnip republic, in deference to malc?
How the hell does this not all massively blow up, a few weeks before the elections in Scotland?
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
Is he one of those types that have been radicalised online? Though perhaps there's been a bit of de-radicalising going on given he's deleted tweets relating to Trump.
So much of this is population density. Many of those white areas are amongst the emptiest in southern England. Despite being lush and fertile, and rather lovely.
When the virus mutates and a new vaccine is manufactured to deal with the new spike or whatever it targets then does that new adjusted vaccine need to go through Phase III and all the other trials again, like the first one did, or can it be used immediately?
Given that the trials were the time consuming element prior to manufacture, how much time can be saved on new vaccinations?
Does that differ between mRNA and tradition Oxford style vaccinations?
It can be used immediately*, hence why we don't trial the flu vaccine every year.
* Pfizer's manufacturing process takes 60 days, so that is the key lead time
Thanks RCS that is great news!
So where is the line drawn between a new variant of a vaccine that can be used immediately and a new vaccine that requires full trials?
That's a good question: my guess is that the fairly small changes to mRNA "recipes" required to deal with a new variant of Covid would not require them.
I'd be very surprised if Pfizer and Moderna were not currently using at least one of their production facilities for a "tweaked" version of their vaccines to deal with SA Covid. The questions are: (1) when did they start this process? (2) when will the initial batches be ready? (3) how much (if any) validation will they wait for before mass producing it.
My guess, and it's just a guess, is that one will only need a single booster of the Pfizer SA variant.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
Sure, I'm not advocating for a loosening right now, far from it. I am simply saying that the goal has to be normal life above all.
Yes, I think that's what people are losing sight of, the SAGE types especially. We must have a plan to return to the old normal. Not summer 2020 "normal", the old normal with late night bars, clubs, no social distancing and the ability to meet perfect strangers on a daily basis without needing to wear a mask.
We must be able to deliver that by the middle of the summer of this year and have a plan to ensure we don't lose it over the winter of 2021, if that means mass producing vaccines and giving everyone booster shots over September and October then lets plan for that now.
And if the only way to secure that in this country is to quarantine at the border until the rest of the world catches up then JFDI.
Holidays domestically during a pandemic is better than constantly shutting down everyone's daily lives.
Australia had a massive party over Christmas and new year - the UK plan should be to emulate that in the summer.
Get everyone vaccinated, cases right down but with the border closed, let's all holiday domestically and spend money in @Cyclefree's daughter's pub.
(I'm living abroad, but with WFH could be willing to quarantine and go see my parents in the summer. Not seen them in nearly two years).
Johnson is refusing to rule out a lockdown extension.
Panicky Hancock presser at 5...
Over a week-end, we are now almost at the post vaccine lockdown stage.
So...about those pubs....
WTF are you withering on about today?
We are not post vaccine by any means of the imagination. Getting the first dose to over 70 year olds is a very good first part of the vaccination process, but it's just under a quarter of the vulnerable doses that need to be done.
I doubt even you would deny there is an attempt today to discredit the vaccine program as a way out of lockdown. By some in the media and some in SAGE. The government? who knows.
Bit Johnson refused to rule out a lockdown extension, even though we are ahead of schedule in vaccination, and on every measure the disease is receding.
The facts have changed for the worse, and people have recognised that. The world does not owe you a "yes" to your constant refrain of "are we nearly there yet?" Things are what they are.
What a credulous person you are, Ishmael.
SAGE could tell you to stick your head up your backside and you would be kissing your own ring before any of us could say jack robinson.
The government has taken away many freedoms our forebears fought and died for. They put 67 million people under house arrest. They do owe us that explanation. Big time. Yesterday.
Oh no. We are under 'house arrest' - I hadn't realised. I'm quite vulnerable to the disease, and I've been out four times today. Are 'they' going to arrest me?
You talk utter nonsense. 67 million under house arrest - bollocks.
I think it is entirely right that when the government is dictating who you can and cannot have sex with, amongst other things, that there are many voices who constantly ask "why?"
That is not to say the reason will not be a valid one.
Fair enough, but I was objecting to the emotive and inaccurate use of 'house arrest'.
And, frankly, I don't really think the government is dictating who you can have sex with. As long as you're discreet about it. I've not heard of anybody being arrested for going to somebody else's house for sex - have you? The nearest is Ferguson, but he had a high, and relevant, public profile.
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Oh wow, I never even knew there was a prison in Rutland. It's right at the northern corner of the county, thankfully well away from my parents in Uppingham - not that they've met another human in weeks, apart from their trips to the vaccine centre.
Apparently, yonks ago, there was a requirement that every county town in England had to build a prison, no matter how small the county was. A number still in place though I suspect most have long been superseded and the sites cleared for housing, night clubs, empty office blocks etc.
Is this correct from the thread header ? ...This leads to extremely effective vaccines. When Oxford/AstraZeneca used a Chimpanzee virus to make their vaccine, they relied on altering an existing virus so it looked enough like Covid to fool the body’s immune system. But the tolerances are always small with this kind of approach, because the adapted virus still had to carry a bunch of genetic material related to the original (Chimpanzee) virus...
That's not how the Oxford vaccine works. It uses a modified chimpanzee virus as a carrier so that it's not recognised by the immune system. The virus is replication incompetent, but get's into human calls, which it them instructs to produce copies of the spike protein, as do the mRNA vaccines. It is the copies of the spike proteins produced by the vaccinated patient's cells which stimulate the immune system in both cases.
In terms of modifications to the vaccine, you're still altering a DNA template with a different version of the spike protein, so again not a wildly different process from modifying the mRNA vaccines.
The manufacturing process is, of course, very different, and it's easier to reuse the mRNA delivery technology in subjects who've already been exposed to it, as the lipid package isn't going to be recognised by the immune system in the way that previous exposure to a viral vector is going to prime it to recognise that reused vector.
Yes, the mRNA vector is the big win from this pandemic. Robert is absolutely right about how big of an advancement it is. The CureVac version seems to only need normal refrigeration too which seems to be why the government has got GSK to buy it and manufacture it domestically.
The Novavax vaccine uses a lipid layer delivery and viral proteins so it should also be very good candidate for annual booster shots.
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
Is he one of those types that have been radicalised online? Though perhaps there's been a bit of de-radicalising going on given he's deleted tweets relating to Trump.
Andrew Neil has also gone full batshit recently.
He only used to be 3/4 batshit.
His new news channel is going to wind a lot of people in MSM up
Well, duh.? And I am sure their 'getting their backs up' is not itself a political reaction to events. It's very easy to say you are willing to be pragmatic when you are not - we do it and they do it - so blaming the other side for your own decision not to be 'pragmatic' whatever that means is absolutely par for the course in this from both sides, an absolute shower. Gove and the UK will say the EU's actions have forced a rethink, the EU will say of course they are willing to talk but Gove's letter makes that impossible in the way he wants.
Diplomatic nonsense, the lot of it. I'd not believe either side if they told me my name was kle4.
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Oh wow, I never even knew there was a prison in Rutland. It's right at the northern corner of the county, thankfully well away from my parents in Uppingham - not that they've met another human in weeks, apart from their trips to the vaccine centre.
Apparently, yonks ago, there was a requirement that every county town in England had to build a prison, no matter how small the county was. A number still in place though I suspect most have long been superseded and the sites cleared for housing, night clubs, empty office blocks etc.
The things you learn every day on PB. Of course, the justice system was always locally based, so when you think about it all counties would have had a prison - even the smallest.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
Sure, I'm not advocating for a loosening right now, far from it. I am simply saying that the goal has to be normal life above all.
Yes, I think that's what people are losing sight of, the SAGE types especially. We must have a plan to return to the old normal. Not summer 2020 "normal", the old normal with late night bars, clubs, no social distancing and the ability to meet perfect strangers on a daily basis without needing to wear a mask.
We must be able to deliver that by the middle of the summer of this year and have a plan to ensure we don't lose it over the winter of 2021, if that means mass producing vaccines and giving everyone booster shots over September and October then lets plan for that now.
And if the only way to secure that in this country is to quarantine at the border until the rest of the world catches up then JFDI.
Holidays domestically during a pandemic is better than constantly shutting down everyone's daily lives.
I hate to say this vaccinations must also be made compulsory.
If it is compulsory by law to put ones life on hold to protect those most vulnerable (a draconian act in itself) then the least that can happen is that it's compulsory for those to have the vaccines(s) to allow the vast majority of people to have their lives back.
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
Is he one of those types that have been radicalised online? Though perhaps there's been a bit of de-radicalising going on given he's deleted tweets relating to Trump.
Andrew Neil has also gone full batshit recently.
He only used to be 3/4 batshit.
His new news channel is going to wind a lot of people in MSM up
It will be very interesting how it pans out
MSM LOL.
No doubt you’ll tell us how it’s going on your full time role as special Pb correspondent for pro-govt cable news.
Either he is rather overhyping his new platform in order to push its appeal, which is somewhat forgivable, or despite protests he really does want a Fox News style media, in which case he is going a bit barmy.
So much of this is population density. Many of those white areas are amongst the emptiest in southern England. Despite being lush and fertile, and rather lovely.
Even more lovely, I live in a "suppressed" area there.....
Yet another vacancy in US House today, following the death of Rep. Ron Wright (R-Texas), who died Sunday after contracting COVID.
He represented TX CD06, which includes most of Arlington (in between Dallas and Forth Worth) as well as exurban > rural Waxahachie and Corsicana. District has been in Republican hands since former congressman Phil Gramm (remember him?) switched parties in the early 1980s.
However, Democrats have done better in recent years. So upcoming special election could be interesting.
Note that there are current three vacancies in the US House: TX CD06 plus LA CD02 (New Orleans, Dem district) and LA CD05 (northeast Louisiana, Rep district).
Johnson is refusing to rule out a lockdown extension.
Panicky Hancock presser at 5...
Over a week-end, we are now almost at the post vaccine lockdown stage.
So...about those pubs....
WTF are you withering on about today?
We are not post vaccine by any means of the imagination. Getting the first dose to over 70 year olds is a very good first part of the vaccination process, but it's just under a quarter of the vulnerable doses that need to be done.
I doubt even you would deny there is an attempt today to discredit the vaccine program as a way out of lockdown. By some in the media and some in SAGE. The government? who knows.
Bit Johnson refused to rule out a lockdown extension, even though we are ahead of schedule in vaccination, and on every measure the disease is receding.
The facts have changed for the worse, and people have recognised that. The world does not owe you a "yes" to your constant refrain of "are we nearly there yet?" Things are what they are.
What a credulous person you are, Ishmael.
SAGE could tell you to stick your head up your backside and you would be kissing your own ring before any of us could say jack robinson.
The government has taken away many freedoms our forebears fought and died for. They put 67 million people under house arrest. They do owe us that explanation. Big time. Yesterday.
Oh no. We are under 'house arrest' - I hadn't realised. I'm quite vulnerable to the disease, and I've been out four times today. Are 'they' going to arrest me?
You talk utter nonsense. 67 million under house arrest - bollocks.
I think it is entirely right that when the government is dictating who you can and cannot have sex with, amongst other things, that there are many voices who constantly ask "why?"
That is not to say the reason will not be a valid one.
Fair enough, but I was objecting to the emotive and inaccurate use of 'house arrest'.
And, frankly, I don't really think the government is dictating who you can have sex with. As long as you're discreet about it. I've not heard of anybody being arrested for going to somebody else's house for sex - have you? The nearest is Ferguson, but he had a high, and relevant, public profile.
Well a bit like @Philip_Thompson and the BBC licence fee the law (or guidelines or regulations or rules) says one thing and people do another. But there were IIRC explicit (!) rules around having sex with someone outside your own household.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.
Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.
The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
Great post. That is certainly true, and would also lead to the end of several other activities beyond those your cite.
However, whilst we are not effectively vaccinated opening up will result in a new surge a few weeks later - as we know from bitter experience.
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
Sure, I'm not advocating for a loosening right now, far from it. I am simply saying that the goal has to be normal life above all.
Yes, I think that's what people are losing sight of, the SAGE types especially. We must have a plan to return to the old normal. Not summer 2020 "normal", the old normal with late night bars, clubs, no social distancing and the ability to meet perfect strangers on a daily basis without needing to wear a mask.
We must be able to deliver that by the middle of the summer of this year and have a plan to ensure we don't lose it over the winter of 2021, if that means mass producing vaccines and giving everyone booster shots over September and October then lets plan for that now.
Whoa, my parents are in Rutland and just got vaccinated. They were right at the bottom of the league tables until yesterday.
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
It really isn't very good. As you say it should be positiva but that doesn't mean positive in the required sense anyway, it only gets to mean that after you've invented negative numbers, which the Romans didn't.
Johnson is refusing to rule out a lockdown extension.
Panicky Hancock presser at 5...
Over a week-end, we are now almost at the post vaccine lockdown stage.
So...about those pubs....
WTF are you withering on about today?
We are not post vaccine by any means of the imagination. Getting the first dose to over 70 year olds is a very good first part of the vaccination process, but it's just under a quarter of the vulnerable doses that need to be done.
I doubt even you would deny there is an attempt today to discredit the vaccine program as a way out of lockdown. By some in the media and some in SAGE. The government? who knows.
Bit Johnson refused to rule out a lockdown extension, even though we are ahead of schedule in vaccination, and on every measure the disease is receding.
The facts have changed for the worse, and people have recognised that. The world does not owe you a "yes" to your constant refrain of "are we nearly there yet?" Things are what they are.
What a credulous person you are, Ishmael.
SAGE could tell you to stick your head up your backside and you would be kissing your own ring before any of us could say jack robinson.
The government has taken away many freedoms our forebears fought and died for. They put 67 million people under house arrest. They do owe us that explanation. Big time. Yesterday.
Oh no. We are under 'house arrest' - I hadn't realised. I'm quite vulnerable to the disease, and I've been out four times today. Are 'they' going to arrest me?
You talk utter nonsense. 67 million under house arrest - bollocks.
I think it is entirely right that when the government is dictating who you can and cannot have sex with, amongst other things, that there are many voices who constantly ask "why?"
That is not to say the reason will not be a valid one.
Fair enough, but I was objecting to the emotive and inaccurate use of 'house arrest'.
And, frankly, I don't really think the government is dictating who you can have sex with. As long as you're discreet about it. I've not heard of anybody being arrested for going to somebody else's house for sex - have you? The nearest is Ferguson, but he had a high, and relevant, public profile.
Well a bit like @Philip_Thompson and the BBC licence fee the law (or guidelines or regulations or rules) says one thing and people do another. But there were IIRC explicit (!) rules around having sex with someone outside your own household.
You have to have the opportunity and setting to find someone to have sex with in the first place!
Mr Murrell less than convincing today, it has to be said.
The suggested referral is ironic given that the Crown Office is itself in the murk up to its oxters, with calls for the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe, to resign over the Rangers shambles.
It's all getting very banana republic up here. Maybe that should be turnip republic, in deference to malc?
How the hell does this not all massively blow up, a few weeks before the elections in Scotland?
I love this line - from Murrell about Salmond’s casual visit
“I just thought he was popping in for a chat about, you know, any, any matter.”
There are times when the most anodyne words simply scream: I AM LYING
This is such a time
Salmond lives a three and a half hour drive away. How often do you "pop in" from a 7 hour round-trip?
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
Is he one of those types that have been radicalised online? Though perhaps there's been a bit of de-radicalising going on given he's deleted tweets relating to Trump.
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
How very awful of him. How on earth will the remaining 99% of academics in the social sciences who are anti-government, pro-woke shills survive?
He needs to learn that heretical thought will simply not be tolerated around here!
That's well below your normal high standard - your 99% figure is just gross exaggeration. 80% maybe I'd have given you. Anyway, even you must admit that Goodwin's line on everything has become tediously predictable.
When '99%' turns out to be only mild hyperbole, that might be a sign that certain disciplines are failing to adequately represent the true diversity of our society
He's had a fair run of predictive success and even some decent analysis over the last decade, but like so many artists and scholars he keeps coming back to his greatest hits because he's afraid he may not have any more. I'm happy for him to keep buggering on.
China spies update. Further to the Times report mentioned on the last thread (or possibly the one before) today sees the publication of this Civitas report on the subject (which I've not had time to read). It can be downloaded as a pdf from the link below.
• This report draws attention to the little-analysed but pervasive presence of Chinese military-linked conglomerates and universities in the sponsorship of high-technology research centres in many leading UK universities.
• In many cases, these UK universities are unintentionally generating research that is sponsored by and may be of use to China’s military conglomerates, including those with activities in the production of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as well as hypersonic missiles, in which China is involved in a new arms race and seeks ‘massively destabilising’ weaponry.
• Much of this research is entirely based at UK universities, while other research outputs include cooperation with researchers in China, often at the military-linked universities or companies sponsoring the UK research centre.
• Many of the research projects will have a civilian use, and UK-based researchers will be unaware of a possible dual use that might lead to a contribution to China’s military industries.
• This report illustrates how 15 of the 24 Russell Group universities and many other UK academic bodies have productive research relationships with Chinese military-linked manufacturers and universities. Much of the research at the university centres and laboratories is also being sponsored by the UK taxpayer through research councils, Innovate UK, and the Royal Society https://www.civitas.org.uk/publications/inadvertently-arming-china/
@TheScreamingEagles will surely be unsurprised that China has not bothered with that academic backwater at Cowley.
China Spies Update
"Researchers at Cambridge have cooperated in research on gyroscope's with researchers from China..."
Well, that doesn't look like a very strong piece of evidence.
It is a bit like saying research on vitamins with China is contributing to the military effort as it is making their service personnel healthy.
Gyroscopes are important in aiming missiles.
ETA the Cambridge response: Summary of response from Cambridge “The Cavendish Laboratory does not have, nor has ever had, any projects, research grants or contracts with NUDT or other military institutions in China. There was an MoU between the groups, but this never led to any formal research funding, lapsed in 2018 and has not been renewed.” https://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/ChinaReport.pdf
Professor Robert Dingwall, who sits on the government's expert Nervtag group (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) suggests people should not be alarmed.
"It's very hard to see why this study has generated so much publicity unless people are looking actively for bad news stories," he said.
He emphasises how small the study is, and cites "massive degrees of uncertainty around the result".
"This is really not a piece of work that should command any great respect or confidence, obviously it's worth following up and taking a closer look at things.
"But the idea that this one small piece of work should be used to jeopardise public confidence or to provoke a major shift in policy is really just a little bit absurd."
Quite right Francis, so take his advice? You are one of the best posters around but you can be prone to jumping to conclusions, it comes across as panicky at times.
Fantastic Speccie article on how the vaccine issue played out in government...
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/secrets-of-the-vaccine-taskforces-success "The foreign press coverage has turned from mockery to awe, with Britain having vaccinated more people than France, Germany, Italy and Spain put together. Many of those behind this success are virtually unknown to the public. Their story matters, because the Vaccine Taskforce is already being looked to by ministers as a model for how government should work once the pandemic is over.
"Sir Patrick – backed by Dominic Cummings – went to the Prime Minister and said that a vaccine tsar should be appointed so as to avoid repeating old mistakes. The Chancellor agreed – as a former investor with portfolio he believed a hawkish approach on contracts was necessary, even if it carried risk levels that led Treasury officials to describe it as 'an extremely unusual programme'. ‘They needed someone with immense private expertise — a dealmaker,’ says an aide.
"In many ways, Kate Bingham was an obvious choice. An established venture capitalist, she has spent her career investing in pharma companies."
To me this has a distinct Magnificent Seven vibe to it -
Yul Brynner IS PM Boris "Boris" Johnson: He picked Kate and she was great. Steve McQueen IS Sir Richard Vallance: The Boffin who kept things real. Olivia Coleman IS Kate Bingham: She was it. She took no shit! As Himself: Chancellor Rishi Sunak: He ate the risk for breakfast. Robert Carlyle IS Dominic Cummings: He was there until he wasn't. Ross Kemp IS Nick Elliot: Bomb disposal expert who would not take no for an answer. And finally ... Matt Hancock. He watched a film.
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
Is he one of those types that have been radicalised online? Though perhaps there's been a bit of de-radicalising going on given he's deleted tweets relating to Trump.
Andrew Neil has also gone full batshit recently.
He only used to be 3/4 batshit.
His new news channel is going to wind a lot of people in MSM up
It will be very interesting how it pans out
If its purpose is to wind up others then I question its motives as a news platform.
And that MSM crap needs to be nipped right in the bud - its a label used even by mainstream outlets to belittle their opponents even when they are equally mainstream. And that they have opponents is part of the problem.
Hancock- England all 70+ who have not yet had an appointment for a vaccination book online/call NHS/your GP. Similar schemes will be rolled out in rUK.
From the aforementioned Speccie article: Awesome work from everyone involved.
"But there were still several near-misses. One came during the port closures following the French response to the Kent strain of Covid. Lorries were stuck on motorways and among them a delivery of Pfizer vaccines that, once loaded, had to be used within ten days. Ruth Todd didn’t sleep for 36 hours as she came up with contingency plans, including an RAF airlift. ‘We got it from Belgium through France, through the tunnel, into the UK, into our warehouse, in the middle of 3,000 lorries being stuck,’ says one involved.
The speed at which Goodwin has transformed from being an interesting, respected, objective academic commentator to being a pro-government, anti-woke shill is even more impressive than the speed of our vaccine rollout.
Is he one of those types that have been radicalised online? Though perhaps there's been a bit of de-radicalising going on given he's deleted tweets relating to Trump.
Andrew Neil has also gone full batshit recently.
He only used to be 3/4 batshit.
His new news channel is going to wind a lot of people in MSM up
It will be very interesting how it pans out
MSM LOL.
No doubt you’ll tell us how it’s going on your full time role as special Pb correspondent for pro-govt cable news.
No idea about cable but I understand it will broadcast across the Sky platform and will be in direct competition to Sky and BBC
When the virus mutates and a new vaccine is manufactured to deal with the new spike or whatever it targets then does that new adjusted vaccine need to go through Phase III and all the other trials again, like the first one did, or can it be used immediately?
Given that the trials were the time consuming element prior to manufacture, how much time can be saved on new vaccinations?
Does that differ between mRNA and tradition Oxford style vaccinations?
It can be used immediately*, hence why we don't trial the flu vaccine every year.
* Pfizer's manufacturing process takes 60 days, so that is the key lead time
Thanks RCS that is great news!
So where is the line drawn between a new variant of a vaccine that can be used immediately and a new vaccine that requires full trials?
It's fairly simple if you're just changing a few proteins on the vaccine antigen. We know that the spike works in vaccines, and this is just a slight modification; and the delivery vehicle is pretty well identical. Major changes would require a full set of clinical trials.
Covid vaccination is going to be a bit like painting the Forth Bridge for a couple of years. But every time we'll be taking more steps forward than back. Just stop with convalescent plasma therapy to avoid quick mutations.
Comments
Would we have had the extra perhaps 10k mortalities in Jan if it had been less lax in Nov / Dec?
Baron Shellfish voted remain.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/08/yorkshire-lobster-exporter-baron-shellfish-brexit-costs-forced-close
...Industry experts said that Baron Shellfish, the first lobster-tank business in Europe’s largest shellfish port, appears to be the first big exporter to have announced its closure.
Speaking from Bridlington on Monday, where he is in the process of dismantling hundreds of lobster crates, Baron said: “All we have had is bullshit from the government, promises that haven’t been kept. I am winding up the business while I still have enough to pay redundancy to my staff...
From case data
From hospitalisation data
He denied it.
What a credulous person you are, Ishmael.
SAGE could tell you to stick your head up your backside and you would be kissing your own ring before any of us could say jack robinson.
The government has taken away many freedoms our forebears fought and died for. They put 67 million people under house arrest. They do owe us that explanation. Big time. Yesterday.
But her appointment also led to charges of cronyism: she’s married to Jesse Norman, a Treasury minister, and was at school with Rachel Johnson, the Prime Minister’s sister. ‘Boris picked Kate,’ says one minister. ‘It was his big contribution.’
An extra 10k deaths would normally, in a bad flu year, not figure in these calculations - indeed no flu deaths would. This of course is not normal, nor is it "the flu". But the govt must nevertheless deal in this very very challenging currency.
I don’t see how you could possibly lockdown strictly in those enormous slums, and as for hygiene...
For comparison, America’s largest city in 1918 was nyc, with a population of 5m. Mumbai has a population of 18m
America’s 2nd largest city in 1918 was Chicago - 2.6m. New Delhi has a population of 16m
@Foxy?
Vaccines great, track and trace terrible.
Testing under PHE disaster, ramp up under the men from delmonte very impressive...back to PHE, loss.of drive.
"Researchers at Cambridge have cooperated in research on gyroscope's with researchers from China..."
Well, that doesn't look like a very strong piece of evidence.
It is a bit like saying research on vitamins with China is contributing to the military effort as it is making their service personnel healthy.
I do wish someone like Keir would come out and ask questions about governance in Scotland.
Isn’t there an Ombudsman who can step in?
He needs to learn that heretical thought will simply not be tolerated around here!
“I just thought he was popping in for a chat about, you know, any, any matter.”
There are times when the most anodyne words simply scream: I AM LYING
This is such a time
Some very political people said the same, said it would cause Dave's resignation yet the country didn't care as their focus was on school'n'hospitals.
I remember hearing that the Tory pollsters as well as other pollsters asked the question 'Which news story have you paid the most attention to this week' and even at the height of phone hacking/Coulson's resignation you'd get a maximum of 1 or 2 people saying phone hacking out of 2,000.
"It's very hard to see why this study has generated so much publicity unless people are looking actively for bad news stories," he said.
He emphasises how small the study is, and cites "massive degrees of uncertainty around the result".
"This is really not a piece of work that should command any great respect or confidence, obviously it's worth following up and taking a closer look at things.
"But the idea that this one small piece of work should be used to jeopardise public confidence or to provoke a major shift in policy is really just a little bit absurd."
Hopefully something like a single care home outbreak, the relative numbers being high because of the small denominator, only 38k population in the county.
Big question is what does Salmond do? Latest I saw was that he was not going to present himself tomorrow as he was at risk of being prosecuted if he brought forward certain evidence. Some talk of him hosting a presser instead. Watch this space.
It's pretty obvious that there is something going off, but my best guess is that it is a slow-fuse which will ignite the ordnance sometime after the election. But, really, who can say?
You talk utter nonsense. 67 million under house arrest - bollocks.
He is a Labour Party Member and previously shared a flat with a Labour AM and ran a business with a Labour AM. He also does not understand the meaning of the phrase "possible conflict of interest".
So, he is a complete waste of space if you are criticising a Labour politician, a Labour Council or the Labour Government.
https://twitter.com/HMPStocken/status/1356588359548891138
There are of course many differences. Is stopping spread through Mumbai on average harder than stopping spread in 1918 Chicago? All I'm saying is that I don't know. There will be bits where it's more or less impossible and bits (where my friend's family lived) where it's easier than in poorer parts of UK/US cities today. We'd be horrified to visit the darker bits of 1918 Chicago today, I'm sure.
I suspect the stats on the poorer bits are also much worse, both in testing for cases and labeling deaths as Covid, so the wealthier bits might dominate the reported figures.
I'm not saying you're wrong, just that you're wrong (well, lack evidence) to say @Gaussian is wrong
More on topic, what's the governance structure of the Crown Office, is there any UK institution that can manage the problems without nuclear options such as the suspension of Holyrood?
POSITIVUM MUTATIO
That is not to say the reason will not be a valid one.
There may be an effort to say don't be a dingbat and we aren't out of the woods yet, but that's neither here nor there as far as vaccinations being the endgame of this.
The disease is receding and the vaccinations are being rolled out which means the plan is working. Despite your misgivings. That you want to take the fact things are going right as evidence things are going wrong says it all.
We a turning into a banana republic.
It makes me sick.
Who will Ombud the Ombudsman?
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1358818144375218183?s=21
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1358818149299335168?s=21
...This leads to extremely effective vaccines. When Oxford/AstraZeneca used a Chimpanzee virus to make their vaccine, they relied on altering an existing virus so it looked enough like Covid to fool the body’s immune system. But the tolerances are always small with this kind of approach, because the adapted virus still had to carry a bunch of genetic material related to the original (Chimpanzee) virus...
That's not how the Oxford vaccine works.
It uses a modified chimpanzee virus as a carrier so that it's not recognised by the immune system. The virus is replication incompetent, but get's into human calls, which it them instructs to produce copies of the spike protein, as do the mRNA vaccines.
It is the copies of the spike proteins produced by the vaccinated patient's cells which stimulate the immune system in both cases.
In terms of modifications to the vaccine, you're still altering a DNA template with a different version of the spike protein, so again not a wildly different process from modifying the mRNA vaccines.
The manufacturing process is, of course, very different, and it's easier to reuse the mRNA delivery technology in subjects who've already been exposed to it, as the lipid package isn't going to be recognised by the immune system in the way that previous exposure to a viral vector is going to prime it to recognise that reused vector.
We must be able to deliver that by the middle of the summer of this year and have a plan to ensure we don't lose it over the winter of 2021, if that means mass producing vaccines and giving everyone booster shots over September and October then lets plan for that now.
So where is the line drawn between a new variant of a vaccine that can be used immediately and a new vaccine that requires full trials?
Ethically, it would be hard for the EU to object
Holidays domestically during a pandemic is better than constantly shutting down everyone's daily lives.
Like Heathrow.
Though perhaps there's been a bit of de-radicalising going on given he's deleted tweets relating to Trump.
He only used to be 3/4 batshit.
I'd be very surprised if Pfizer and Moderna were not currently using at least one of their production facilities for a "tweaked" version of their vaccines to deal with SA Covid. The questions are: (1) when did they start this process? (2) when will the initial batches be ready? (3) how much (if any) validation will they wait for before mass producing it.
My guess, and it's just a guess, is that one will only need a single booster of the Pfizer SA variant.
Get everyone vaccinated, cases right down but with the border closed, let's all holiday domestically and spend money in @Cyclefree's daughter's pub.
(I'm living abroad, but with WFH could be willing to quarantine and go see my parents in the summer. Not seen them in nearly two years).
And, frankly, I don't really think the government is dictating who you can have sex with. As long as you're discreet about it. I've not heard of anybody being arrested for going to somebody else's house for sex - have you? The nearest is Ferguson, but he had a high, and relevant, public profile.
The Novavax vaccine uses a lipid layer delivery and viral proteins so it should also be very good candidate for annual booster shots.
It will be very interesting how it pans out
Target 15,000,000
Thru 12,294,006
Required 2,705,994
Days to target 7
Yesterday’s return 278,988
Required rate 386,571 (↑ from 373,123 yesterday)
Diplomatic nonsense, the lot of it. I'd not believe either side if they told me my name was kle4.
https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1358823190265532417
If it is compulsory by law to put ones life on hold to protect those most vulnerable (a draconian act in itself) then the least that can happen is that it's compulsory for those to have the vaccines(s) to allow the vast majority of people to have their lives back.
No doubt you’ll tell us how it’s going on your full time role as special Pb correspondent for pro-govt cable news.
He represented TX CD06, which includes most of Arlington (in between Dallas and Forth Worth) as well as exurban > rural Waxahachie and Corsicana. District has been in Republican hands since former congressman Phil Gramm (remember him?) switched parties in the early 1980s.
However, Democrats have done better in recent years. So upcoming special election could be interesting.
Note that there are current three vacancies in the US House: TX CD06 plus LA CD02 (New Orleans, Dem district) and LA CD05 (northeast Louisiana, Rep district).
An inspired choice for Republicans.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1358823946238492673?s=20
"For everything there is a season" - Turn! Turn! Very apt for a party switcher.
He's had a fair run of predictive success and even some decent analysis over the last decade, but like so many artists and scholars he keeps coming back to his greatest hits because he's afraid he may not have any more. I'm happy for him to keep buggering on.
ETA the Cambridge response: Summary of response from Cambridge
“The Cavendish Laboratory does not have, nor has ever had, any projects, research grants or
contracts with NUDT or other military institutions in China. There was an MoU between the
groups, but this never led to any formal research funding, lapsed in 2018 and has not been
renewed.”
https://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/ChinaReport.pdf
Quite right Francis, so take his advice? You are one of the best posters around but you can be prone to jumping to conclusions, it comes across as panicky at times.
Yul Brynner IS PM Boris "Boris" Johnson: He picked Kate and she was great.
Steve McQueen IS Sir Richard Vallance: The Boffin who kept things real.
Olivia Coleman IS Kate Bingham: She was it. She took no shit!
As Himself: Chancellor Rishi Sunak: He ate the risk for breakfast.
Robert Carlyle IS Dominic Cummings: He was there until he wasn't.
Ross Kemp IS Nick Elliot: Bomb disposal expert who would not take no for an answer.
And finally ... Matt Hancock. He watched a film.
Was a great political betting event.
And that MSM crap needs to be nipped right in the bud - its a label used even by mainstream outlets to belittle their opponents even when they are equally mainstream. And that they have opponents is part of the problem.
"But there were still several near-misses. One came during the port closures following the French response to the Kent strain of Covid. Lorries were stuck on motorways and among them a delivery of Pfizer vaccines that, once loaded, had to be used within ten days. Ruth Todd didn’t sleep for 36 hours as she came up with contingency plans, including an RAF airlift. ‘We got it from Belgium through France, through the tunnel, into the UK, into our warehouse, in the middle of 3,000 lorries being stuck,’ says one involved.
Major changes would require a full set of clinical trials.
Just stop with convalescent plasma therapy to avoid quick mutations.