Is this because Scots geezers are trying to bump up the jab rate north o' the border, in order to catch up and hopefully surpass the English?
Could be the up side of vaccination nationalism!
One life saved for every 20 inoculations of elderly residents of care homes, versus one saved for every 40,000 50-somethings. Everyone else in between. It’s not nationalism, it’s about the risk of death.
And filling up hospital ICUs, too.
I'm sorry but the Scottish figure doesn't make much sense. Is it 99.6% of care home residents being vaccinated (even if they shouldn't be because of illnesses and pre-existing conditions) or 99.6% of those who can be vaccinated have been vaccinated.
If it's the former WTF and if it's the latter I suspect England is virtually identical but used a different calculation.
And are they really vaccinating people in the end stages of life who may be dead before the vaccine is even effective? Surely that is daft.
A significant difference between England and Scotland will be the percentage of ethnic minorities in care homes. If these figures from Bradford for over 80s refusing vaccination and broken down by ethnicity are repeated elsewhere in the England then it will be nearly impossible to get anywhere near 100% vaccination.
Is this because Scots geezers are trying to bump up the jab rate north o' the border, in order to catch up and hopefully surpass the English?
Could be the up side of vaccination nationalism!
One life saved for every 20 inoculations of elderly residents of care homes, versus one saved for every 40,000 50-somethings. Everyone else in between. It’s not nationalism, it’s about the risk of death.
And filling up hospital ICUs, too.
I'm sorry but the Scottish figure doesn't make much sense. Is it 99.6% of care home residents being vaccinated (even if they shouldn't be because of illnesses and pre-existing conditions) or 99.6% of those who can be vaccinated have been vaccinated.
If it's the former WTF and if it's the latter I suspect England is virtually identical but used a different calculation.
And are they really vaccinating people in the end stages of life who may be dead before the vaccine is even effective? Surely that is daft.
A significant difference between England and Scotland will be the percentage of ethnic minorities in care homes. If these figures from Bradford for over 80s refusing vaccination and broken down by ethnicity are repeated elsewhere in the England then it will be nearly impossible to get anywhere near 100% vaccination.
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Insulting the dead isn't a crime as far as I'm aware. It's an offence against politeness and civility but those are different things.
Because Boris is going to hotlink opening-up road map on infection rates and NHS capacity, surely these are the unknown/uncontrollable variables to scupper opening up because they will push up infectionand transmission rates?
1. Impact of doing over fifties first jab at same time as over seventies second, plus any unexpected lumpiness in supply of vaccine. Might not happen. Can’t be ruled out. 2. Question marks over impact of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The gnomonic specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? And if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading than thought. Already happening? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. The biggest unknown impact.
We're suffering from the same problem with vaccines that we suffered from in Lockdown One.
People forget, but on here, lockdowns were decried as not working because "we implemented a lockdown a week ago, and cases are still up 30% and therefore it doesn't work".
With the vaccine, there are two different time lags to take into account: Firstly, there's the time lag between vaccine and protection. Secondly, there's the fact that today's "positive" number is actually measuring infections two weeks.
The reported CV19 caseload today is based on (basically) the number of people vaccinated up to about 5-10 January.
In the last two weeks, there has been lots of excellent news (CureVac-GSK, the mega infection in the old age people's home in Israel with zero serious infections, Novavax, Pfizer cutting manufacturing times in half, antibody response data on the SA variant from Moderna and Pfizer, J&J, continuing falls in CV19 cases across the world, the manufacturing deals for Pfizer with Sanofi and Novartis, etc.).
And there's been one piece of bad news: that AZ is largely ineffective against the SA variant.
That's it.
Now, that sucks because we have lots of AZ. And it was a British developed vaccine.
But we also have lots of Pfizer and lots of CureVac and lots of Novavax. And the first two of these can be very rapidly changed to deal with new variants. And the more people have been vaccinated, the fewer hosts there are for the virus to have mutations in.
I don’t disagree with anything you said there. And I am carried along on the general wave of optimism of something like normal sometime this year.
But to some extent you only answered your own questions, I didn’t ask, not the three I posted?
I’ll ask them again, but differently by first subtracting what you have said.
1. Vaccinations going great guns currently but how lumpy could supply get? Especially if mutations undermine big stockpile? 2. Impact on opening up of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? Like the one bit of bad news you explained, if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading using them. we can’t depend on new variants not bringing more bad news? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. How might this slow down back to normal?
On 1...
Supply is only going on one direction. Let me give you an example. Imagine that a factory has capacity of 10. In its first month, it'll produce 1, in its second 3, in its third 6, and in its fourth 10. (It'll often go on to produce more than 10 when it's debottlenecked, but that's another story).
Now, imagine that a firm has one factory in month one; two in month two, four in month three, etc.
That's what we're seeing right now. Just look at Pfizer. Across the whole world, they had two production sites for their vaccine in December. They now have three in the US alone. And they have signed production agreements with Novartis and Sanofi. By April or May, there might be a dozen plants producing Pfizer's vaccine alone. Now, most of those will be at the earliest stage of ramp up. But they will grow and grow and grow.
At the beginning of last month, Pfizer said it would produce 1.2bn doses of its vaccine in 2021. It now says two billion.
This is like aircraft production in WW2.
And they’ve nearly doubled the speed of production for batches of the vaccine in their original plants. It’s an entirely new bulk production process, so rapid improvements are to be expected.
I’m convinced.
Talk of lumpiness in supply should be thing of the past now.
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
When the virus mutates and a new vaccine is manufactured to deal with the new spike or whatever it targets then does that new adjusted vaccine need to go through Phase III and all the other trials again, like the first one did, or can it be used immediately?
Given that the trials were the time consuming element prior to manufacture, how much time can be saved on new vaccinations?
Does that differ between mRNA and tradition Oxford style vaccinations?
You can probably jump to p3
Would that be the case if a new viral vector is needed for the AZ one to evade potential vector immunity?
With a new vector I think you’d need safety trials as well as efficacy
When the virus mutates and a new vaccine is manufactured to deal with the new spike or whatever it targets then does that new adjusted vaccine need to go through Phase III and all the other trials again, like the first one did, or can it be used immediately?
Given that the trials were the time consuming element prior to manufacture, how much time can be saved on new vaccinations?
Does that differ between mRNA and tradition Oxford style vaccinations?
You can probably jump to p3
Probably only need safety and a comparison study against existing vaccine. Not full on p3.
Don’t think you can bridge on efficacy. That’s only really used for genetic subgroups and 505(b)(ii) approvals
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
Does that make being a c*** illegal though? I don't understand this at all. Feels like thought policing, he's perfectly entitled to his views and to air them, however distasteful they are to the rest of us.
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Me neither. He was just being an utter twunt on social media. It's a waste of the court's time.
When the virus mutates and a new vaccine is manufactured to deal with the new spike or whatever it targets then does that new adjusted vaccine need to go through Phase III and all the other trials again, like the first one did, or can it be used immediately?
Given that the trials were the time consuming element prior to manufacture, how much time can be saved on new vaccinations?
Does that differ between mRNA and tradition Oxford style vaccinations?
You can probably jump to p3
Would that be the case if a new viral vector is needed for the AZ one to evade potential vector immunity?
With a new vector I think you’d need safety trials as well as efficacy
Thanks, I thought it might. Definitely shows why the government has bet on mRNA for the future.
When the virus mutates and a new vaccine is manufactured to deal with the new spike or whatever it targets then does that new adjusted vaccine need to go through Phase III and all the other trials again, like the first one did, or can it be used immediately?
Given that the trials were the time consuming element prior to manufacture, how much time can be saved on new vaccinations?
Does that differ between mRNA and tradition Oxford style vaccinations?
You can probably jump to p3
Probably only need safety and a comparison study against existing vaccine. Not full on p3.
Don’t think you can bridge on efficacy. That’s only really used for genetic subgroups and 505(b)(ii) approvals
I did hear the head of the Oxford vaccine group say, on the radio, that they could do a small safety trial and then straight to approval. I don't know whether he was right, of course.
When the virus mutates and a new vaccine is manufactured to deal with the new spike or whatever it targets then does that new adjusted vaccine need to go through Phase III and all the other trials again, like the first one did, or can it be used immediately?
Given that the trials were the time consuming element prior to manufacture, how much time can be saved on new vaccinations?
Does that differ between mRNA and tradition Oxford style vaccinations?
You can probably jump to p3
Probably only need safety and a comparison study against existing vaccine. Not full on p3.
Don’t think you can bridge on efficacy. That’s only really used for genetic subgroups and 505(b)(ii) approvals
I did hear the head of the Oxford vaccine group say, on the radio, that they could do a small safety trial and then straight to approval. I don't know whether he was right, of course.
--AS
Regulatory strategy makes my brain hurt. So I don’t follow it closely.
But I’d be surprised a government would just roll it out without a trial (a killed vaccine they could)
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
Does that make being a c*** illegal though? I don't understand this at all. Feels like thought policing, he's perfectly entitled to his views and to air them, however distasteful they are to the rest of us.
Yes, it’s bollocks. But the police have form in making arrests in similar high profile cases, which then go nowhere.
Whoever posted it is an offensive git, but that is not yet a crime.
When the virus mutates and a new vaccine is manufactured to deal with the new spike or whatever it targets then does that new adjusted vaccine need to go through Phase III and all the other trials again, like the first one did, or can it be used immediately?
Given that the trials were the time consuming element prior to manufacture, how much time can be saved on new vaccinations?
Does that differ between mRNA and tradition Oxford style vaccinations?
You can probably jump to p3
Probably only need safety and a comparison study against existing vaccine. Not full on p3.
Don’t think you can bridge on efficacy. That’s only really used for genetic subgroups and 505(b)(ii) approvals
I did hear the head of the Oxford vaccine group say, on the radio, that they could do a small safety trial and then straight to approval. I don't know whether he was right, of course.
--AS
Regulatory strategy makes my brain hurt. So I don’t follow it closely.
But I’d be surprised a government would just roll it out without a trial (a killed vaccine they could)
If we’re just talking about modifications to the spike protein bit of an already approved vaccine, to match the mutations, I would guess a simple safety trial would be enough. In the middle of a pandemic, there’s not much reason to take months on extended trials, and I would think that would apply both to the adenovirus and mRNA vaccines.
A lot of this is situational, though, and depends on how bad (or not) things get again.
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
Does that make being a c*** illegal though? I don't understand this at all. Feels like thought policing, he's perfectly entitled to his views and to air them, however distasteful they are to the rest of us.
Yes, it’s bollocks. But the police have form in making arrests in similar high profile cases, which then go nowhere.
Whoever posted it is an offensive git, but that is not yet a crime.
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
Does that make being a c*** illegal though? I don't understand this at all. Feels like thought policing, he's perfectly entitled to his views and to air them, however distasteful they are to the rest of us.
Yes, it’s bollocks. But the police have form in making arrests in similar high profile cases, which then go nowhere.
Whoever posted it is an offensive git, but that is not yet a crime.
It is in Scotland, or at least seems like it.
I doubt the Scottish police have a monopoly on overreacting to things.
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
Does that make being a c*** illegal though? I don't understand this at all. Feels like thought policing, he's perfectly entitled to his views and to air them, however distasteful they are to the rest of us.
If it is illegal there's a few of us on here in trouble.
Curious to get a big negative for the Government - I've been accused of only posting "good" canvassing in the past, but I hgave to say that two of us have found that even Labour voters mostly reckon that the Government is handling the pandemic pretty well now, contrasting with these negative figures.
Doesn't make them vote Tory though - the whole thing is seen by many as an Act of God that governments and populations get through as well as possible, deserving neither praise nor blame.
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
Does that make being a c*** illegal though? I don't understand this at all. Feels like thought policing, he's perfectly entitled to his views and to air them, however distasteful they are to the rest of us.
Perhaps it should be.
Trolling the late National Treasure Captain Sir Tom could be a gateway to nastier unpleasantness.
He's from Lanarkshire? Put him in the Juggs in Kilmaurs!
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
Does that make being a c*** illegal though? I don't understand this at all. Feels like thought policing, he's perfectly entitled to his views and to air them, however distasteful they are to the rest of us.
Perhaps it should be.
Trolling the late National Treasure Captain Sir Tom could be a gateway to nastier unpleasantness.
He's from Lanarkshire? Put him in the Juggs in Kilmaurs!
When Margaret Thatcher died a lot of lefties on social media were saying things like The Wicked Witch Is Dead. That would also have to be prosecuted, because we cant have one rule for some people and another for other people depending on your views.
Cricket prediction: India all out for between 275 and 300.
Sporting Index goes 250/275 but even your higher figure suggests England win fairly comfortably.
The PB consensus strongly suggests the exchanges are out on this one and may well be distorted by Asian punters. Credence is added to this theory by the way Englands price has shortened a bit since this evening while Asia sleeps.
The 2.5 England nevertheless reains a bit of a gift.
Seems like betting on cricket when India are playing usually offers lots of opportunities due to the, shall we say, "over-enthusiastic" attitude of Indian fans to the chances of their team winning matches regardless of the situation.
I estimate England's chances at 66%, the draw 33%, and India 1% despite what Ishant says. How far out do you think I am?
Better chance than that for England. I think Indian batsmen will be easy to goad into making rash shots and the wickets will fall.
Their 2 fifth day batting displays in the final 2 tests in Oz might suggest otherwise.
Oh, they're a good side alright - best in the world, imo. The odds are against them here though.
I think the Aussies, England, India and NZ are pretty much on a par, and home advantage counts a lot. Seem to recall NZ have mostly played at home in the current world test series, hence their top placing in the ranks. I think India win at 1 % is about right, and England or draw about the same. Re getting good odds on the spreads due to overconfident Indian fans, surely the same could be said for when England play footy? Often seem to be stronger favourites here than they should be.
I'd have India a shade ahead of NZ and England. Aussies have dropped back a bit, but not much. Rest I agree with completely.
If home advantage is such a big thing in test cricket, maybe more matches should be played at neutral venues in order to discover which teams really are the best when you exclude that factor.
We may soon be putting that to the test. India v NZ is the likely final at Lord's. Would be a corker.
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
Does that make being a c*** illegal though? I don't understand this at all. Feels like thought policing, he's perfectly entitled to his views and to air them, however distasteful they are to the rest of us.
Yes, it’s bollocks. But the police have form in making arrests in similar high profile cases, which then go nowhere.
Whoever posted it is an offensive git, but that is not yet a crime.
It is in Scotland, or at least seems like it.
Possibly a dry run for Humza Yousuf’s hate crime bill.
I just saw what the bloke in Glasgow said about Captain Tom. Don't understand how he's been arrested. Can any of our legal experts chime in here? What crime is he suspected of committing?
Something to do with the Communications Act, and causing a fit of the vapours in a significant percentage of the population.
Does that make being a c*** illegal though? I don't understand this at all. Feels like thought policing, he's perfectly entitled to his views and to air them, however distasteful they are to the rest of us.
Perhaps it should be.
Trolling the late National Treasure Captain Sir Tom could be a gateway to nastier unpleasantness.
He's from Lanarkshire? Put him in the Juggs in Kilmaurs!
Cricket prediction: India all out for between 275 and 300.
Sporting Index goes 250/275 but even your higher figure suggests England win fairly comfortably.
The PB consensus strongly suggests the exchanges are out on this one and may well be distorted by Asian punters. Credence is added to this theory by the way Englands price has shortened a bit since this evening while Asia sleeps.
The 2.5 England nevertheless reains a bit of a gift.
Seems like betting on cricket when India are playing usually offers lots of opportunities due to the, shall we say, "over-enthusiastic" attitude of Indian fans to the chances of their team winning matches regardless of the situation.
I estimate England's chances at 66%, the draw 33%, and India 1% despite what Ishant says. How far out do you think I am?
Better chance than that for England. I think Indian batsmen will be easy to goad into making rash shots and the wickets will fall.
Their 2 fifth day batting displays in the final 2 tests in Oz might suggest otherwise.
Oh, they're a good side alright - best in the world, imo. The odds are against them here though.
I think the Aussies, England, India and NZ are pretty much on a par, and home advantage counts a lot. Seem to recall NZ have mostly played at home in the current world test series, hence their top placing in the ranks. I think India win at 1 % is about right, and England or draw about the same. Re getting good odds on the spreads due to overconfident Indian fans, surely the same could be said for when England play footy? Often seem to be stronger favourites here than they should be.
I'd have India a shade ahead of NZ and England. Aussies have dropped back a bit, but not much. Rest I agree with completely.
If home advantage is such a big thing in test cricket, maybe more matches should be played at neutral venues in order to discover which teams really are the best when you exclude that factor.
We may soon be putting that to the test. India v NZ is the likely final at Lord's. Would be a corker.
When do tickets go on sale?
Indeed. Tickets will be hard to come by if India are playing. I wonder whether they might consider having a 6th day available just in case the match isnt completed in 5 days.
Thanks to rcs1000 for the header, the best one this year in my opinion.
I've now caught up with the header also. Thanks RCS. It is very exciting. I don't follow the logic entirely on cancer, but I don't know enough about cancer in its early stages to offer a contradictory argument. I've just never thought that they formed because they go unnoticed by the immune system.
Because Boris is going to hotlink opening-up road map on infection rates and NHS capacity, surely these are the unknown/uncontrollable variables to scupper opening up because they will push up infectionand transmission rates?
1. Impact of doing over fifties first jab at same time as over seventies second, plus any unexpected lumpiness in supply of vaccine. Might not happen. Can’t be ruled out. 2. Question marks over impact of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The gnomonic specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? And if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading than thought. Already happening? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. The biggest unknown impact.
We're suffering from the same problem with vaccines that we suffered from in Lockdown One.
People forget, but on here, lockdowns were decried as not working because "we implemented a lockdown a week ago, and cases are still up 30% and therefore it doesn't work".
With the vaccine, there are two different time lags to take into account: Firstly, there's the time lag between vaccine and protection. Secondly, there's the fact that today's "positive" number is actually measuring infections two weeks.
The reported CV19 caseload today is based on (basically) the number of people vaccinated up to about 5-10 January.
In the last two weeks, there has been lots of excellent news (CureVac-GSK, the mega infection in the old age people's home in Israel with zero serious infections, Novavax, Pfizer cutting manufacturing times in half, antibody response data on the SA variant from Moderna and Pfizer, J&J, continuing falls in CV19 cases across the world, the manufacturing deals for Pfizer with Sanofi and Novartis, etc.).
And there's been one piece of bad news: that AZ is largely ineffective against the SA variant.
That's it.
Now, that sucks because we have lots of AZ. And it was a British developed vaccine.
But we also have lots of Pfizer and lots of CureVac and lots of Novavax. And the first two of these can be very rapidly changed to deal with new variants. And the more people have been vaccinated, the fewer hosts there are for the virus to have mutations in.
I don’t disagree with anything you said there. And I am carried along on the general wave of optimism of something like normal sometime this year.
But to some extent you only answered your own questions, I didn’t ask, not the three I posted?
I’ll ask them again, but differently by first subtracting what you have said.
1. Vaccinations going great guns currently but how lumpy could supply get? Especially if mutations undermine big stockpile? 2. Impact on opening up of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? Like the one bit of bad news you explained, if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading using them. we can’t depend on new variants not bringing more bad news? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. How might this slow down back to normal?
Re 2:
Remember mutations happen when there are lots of people who are sick with a disease. Lots of hosts mean lots of opportunities for viruses to mutate. It's no coincidence that it was Brazil and South Africa (two countries with mammoth CV19 problems) also saw mutations arrive there.
The fewer people have really major CV19 infections, the less likely we are to see mutations.
Also, this is not a one/zero thing. I'll bet you that people who had the AZ vaccine or who previously had regular CV19 turn out to have much better outcomes even if they get SA variant. Because that's the nature of our immune systems: how much of a headstart do they get, and any vaccine or any exposure to a previous coronavirus gives them some.
Last point, the new variants have all shown similar types of mutations. This is really good news: this is not a disease which appears to be able to mutate in different directions, it's one where the there appears to be just one path to greater infectiousness. That's going to make our job a whole bunch easier.
Why are you worried?
You’ve already told us that, in about 5 years, we will be having conversations like this:
‘Do you remember that weird bug that went round in about 2020?’
‘Oh. Vaguely. Not really. Didn’t some people stay home?’
‘Think so. What was it called. Corvid 16? Lemonavirus?’
‘Don’t remember. All I recall is the extraordinary invention of mRNA vaccines that came therefrom, able to target individual cancer cells’
Because Boris is going to hotlink opening-up road map on infection rates and NHS capacity, surely these are the unknown/uncontrollable variables to scupper opening up because they will push up infectionand transmission rates?
1. Impact of doing over fifties first jab at same time as over seventies second, plus any unexpected lumpiness in supply of vaccine. Might not happen. Can’t be ruled out. 2. Question marks over impact of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The gnomonic specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? And if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading than thought. Already happening? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. The biggest unknown impact.
We're suffering from the same problem with vaccines that we suffered from in Lockdown One.
People forget, but on here, lockdowns were decried as not working because "we implemented a lockdown a week ago, and cases are still up 30% and therefore it doesn't work".
With the vaccine, there are two different time lags to take into account: Firstly, there's the time lag between vaccine and protection. Secondly, there's the fact that today's "positive" number is actually measuring infections two weeks.
The reported CV19 caseload today is based on (basically) the number of people vaccinated up to about 5-10 January.
In the last two weeks, there has been lots of excellent news (CureVac-GSK, the mega infection in the old age people's home in Israel with zero serious infections, Novavax, Pfizer cutting manufacturing times in half, antibody response data on the SA variant from Moderna and Pfizer, J&J, continuing falls in CV19 cases across the world, the manufacturing deals for Pfizer with Sanofi and Novartis, etc.).
And there's been one piece of bad news: that AZ is largely ineffective against the SA variant.
That's it.
Now, that sucks because we have lots of AZ. And it was a British developed vaccine.
But we also have lots of Pfizer and lots of CureVac and lots of Novavax. And the first two of these can be very rapidly changed to deal with new variants. And the more people have been vaccinated, the fewer hosts there are for the virus to have mutations in.
I don’t disagree with anything you said there. And I am carried along on the general wave of optimism of something like normal sometime this year.
But to some extent you only answered your own questions, I didn’t ask, not the three I posted?
I’ll ask them again, but differently by first subtracting what you have said.
1. Vaccinations going great guns currently but how lumpy could supply get? Especially if mutations undermine big stockpile? 2. Impact on opening up of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? Like the one bit of bad news you explained, if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading using them. we can’t depend on new variants not bringing more bad news? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. How might this slow down back to normal?
Re 2:
Remember mutations happen when there are lots of people who are sick with a disease. Lots of hosts mean lots of opportunities for viruses to mutate. It's no coincidence that it was Brazil and South Africa (two countries with mammoth CV19 problems) also saw mutations arrive there.
The fewer people have really major CV19 infections, the less likely we are to see mutations.
Also, this is not a one/zero thing. I'll bet you that people who had the AZ vaccine or who previously had regular CV19 turn out to have much better outcomes even if they get SA variant. Because that's the nature of our immune systems: how much of a headstart do they get, and any vaccine or any exposure to a previous coronavirus gives them some.
Last point, the new variants have all shown similar types of mutations. This is really good news: this is not a disease which appears to be able to mutate in different directions, it's one where the there appears to be just one path to greater infectiousness. That's going to make our job a whole bunch easier.
Why are you worried?
You’ve already told us that, in about 5 years, we will be having conversations like this:
‘Do you remember that weird bug that went round in about 2020?’
‘Oh. Vaguely. Not really. Didn’t some people stay home?’
‘Think so. What was it called. Corvid 16? Lemonavirus?’
‘Don’t remember. All I recall is the extraordinary invention of mRNA vaccines that came therefrom, able to target individual cancer cells’
‘Yeah.’ COUGHS HEAVILY ‘Me too’
Sounds like the wonders of this science still can’t stop you smoking. 40 Park Road?
Because Boris is going to hotlink opening-up road map on infection rates and NHS capacity, surely these are the unknown/uncontrollable variables to scupper opening up because they will push up infectionand transmission rates?
1. Impact of doing over fifties first jab at same time as over seventies second, plus any unexpected lumpiness in supply of vaccine. Might not happen. Can’t be ruled out. 2. Question marks over impact of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The gnomonic specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? And if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading than thought. Already happening? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. The biggest unknown impact.
We're suffering from the same problem with vaccines that we suffered from in Lockdown One.
People forget, but on here, lockdowns were decried as not working because "we implemented a lockdown a week ago, and cases are still up 30% and therefore it doesn't work".
With the vaccine, there are two different time lags to take into account: Firstly, there's the time lag between vaccine and protection. Secondly, there's the fact that today's "positive" number is actually measuring infections two weeks.
The reported CV19 caseload today is based on (basically) the number of people vaccinated up to about 5-10 January.
In the last two weeks, there has been lots of excellent news (CureVac-GSK, the mega infection in the old age people's home in Israel with zero serious infections, Novavax, Pfizer cutting manufacturing times in half, antibody response data on the SA variant from Moderna and Pfizer, J&J, continuing falls in CV19 cases across the world, the manufacturing deals for Pfizer with Sanofi and Novartis, etc.).
And there's been one piece of bad news: that AZ is largely ineffective against the SA variant.
That's it.
Now, that sucks because we have lots of AZ. And it was a British developed vaccine.
But we also have lots of Pfizer and lots of CureVac and lots of Novavax. And the first two of these can be very rapidly changed to deal with new variants. And the more people have been vaccinated, the fewer hosts there are for the virus to have mutations in.
I don’t disagree with anything you said there. And I am carried along on the general wave of optimism of something like normal sometime this year.
But to some extent you only answered your own questions, I didn’t ask, not the three I posted?
I’ll ask them again, but differently by first subtracting what you have said.
1. Vaccinations going great guns currently but how lumpy could supply get? Especially if mutations undermine big stockpile? 2. Impact on opening up of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? Like the one bit of bad news you explained, if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading using them. we can’t depend on new variants not bringing more bad news? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. How might this slow down back to normal?
Re 2:
Remember mutations happen when there are lots of people who are sick with a disease. Lots of hosts mean lots of opportunities for viruses to mutate. It's no coincidence that it was Brazil and South Africa (two countries with mammoth CV19 problems) also saw mutations arrive there.
The fewer people have really major CV19 infections, the less likely we are to see mutations.
Also, this is not a one/zero thing. I'll bet you that people who had the AZ vaccine or who previously had regular CV19 turn out to have much better outcomes even if they get SA variant. Because that's the nature of our immune systems: how much of a headstart do they get, and any vaccine or any exposure to a previous coronavirus gives them some.
Last point, the new variants have all shown similar types of mutations. This is really good news: this is not a disease which appears to be able to mutate in different directions, it's one where the there appears to be just one path to greater infectiousness. That's going to make our job a whole bunch easier.
Why are you worried?
You’ve already told us that, in about 5 years, we will be having conversations like this:
‘Do you remember that weird bug that went round in about 2020?’
‘Oh. Vaguely. Not really. Didn’t some people stay home?’
‘Think so. What was it called. Corvid 16? Lemonavirus?’
‘Don’t remember. All I recall is the extraordinary invention of mRNA vaccines that came therefrom, able to target individual cancer cells’
‘Yeah.’ COUGHS HEAVILY ‘Me too’
The Spanish Flu was basically forgotten about until Covid.
Covid will be forgotten about in five or seven years. There's no great literature or art or tales of personal valour.
It was boring and shit and we had to stay indoors and not travel and a bunch of people (mostly older) died.
A couple who work in the circus go to an adoption agency. Social workers there raise doubts about their suitability. The couple produce photos of their 50 ft motorhome, which is equipped with a beautiful nursery. The social workers then are doubtful about the education that the child would get. "We've arranged for a full-time tutor who will teach the child all the usual subjects along with French, Mandarin and computer skills." Then there are doubts about raising a child in a circus environment. "Our nanny is an expert in pediatric welfare and diet." The social workers are finally satisfied. They ask, "What age child are you hoping to adopt?" "It doesn't really matter, as long as he fits in the cannon Comments
Because Boris is going to hotlink opening-up road map on infection rates and NHS capacity, surely these are the unknown/uncontrollable variables to scupper opening up because they will push up infectionand transmission rates?
1. Impact of doing over fifties first jab at same time as over seventies second, plus any unexpected lumpiness in supply of vaccine. Might not happen. Can’t be ruled out. 2. Question marks over impact of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The gnomonic specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? And if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading than thought. Already happening? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. The biggest unknown impact.
We're suffering from the same problem with vaccines that we suffered from in Lockdown One.
People forget, but on here, lockdowns were decried as not working because "we implemented a lockdown a week ago, and cases are still up 30% and therefore it doesn't work".
With the vaccine, there are two different time lags to take into account: Firstly, there's the time lag between vaccine and protection. Secondly, there's the fact that today's "positive" number is actually measuring infections two weeks.
The reported CV19 caseload today is based on (basically) the number of people vaccinated up to about 5-10 January.
In the last two weeks, there has been lots of excellent news (CureVac-GSK, the mega infection in the old age people's home in Israel with zero serious infections, Novavax, Pfizer cutting manufacturing times in half, antibody response data on the SA variant from Moderna and Pfizer, J&J, continuing falls in CV19 cases across the world, the manufacturing deals for Pfizer with Sanofi and Novartis, etc.).
And there's been one piece of bad news: that AZ is largely ineffective against the SA variant.
That's it.
Now, that sucks because we have lots of AZ. And it was a British developed vaccine.
But we also have lots of Pfizer and lots of CureVac and lots of Novavax. And the first two of these can be very rapidly changed to deal with new variants. And the more people have been vaccinated, the fewer hosts there are for the virus to have mutations in.
I don’t disagree with anything you said there. And I am carried along on the general wave of optimism of something like normal sometime this year.
But to some extent you only answered your own questions, I didn’t ask, not the three I posted?
I’ll ask them again, but differently by first subtracting what you have said.
1. Vaccinations going great guns currently but how lumpy could supply get? Especially if mutations undermine big stockpile? 2. Impact on opening up of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? Like the one bit of bad news you explained, if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading using them. we can’t depend on new variants not bringing more bad news? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. How might this slow down back to normal?
Re 2:
Remember mutations happen when there are lots of people who are sick with a disease. Lots of hosts mean lots of opportunities for viruses to mutate. It's no coincidence that it was Brazil and South Africa (two countries with mammoth CV19 problems) also saw mutations arrive there.
The fewer people have really major CV19 infections, the less likely we are to see mutations.
Also, this is not a one/zero thing. I'll bet you that people who had the AZ vaccine or who previously had regular CV19 turn out to have much better outcomes even if they get SA variant. Because that's the nature of our immune systems: how much of a headstart do they get, and any vaccine or any exposure to a previous coronavirus gives them some.
Last point, the new variants have all shown similar types of mutations. This is really good news: this is not a disease which appears to be able to mutate in different directions, it's one where the there appears to be just one path to greater infectiousness. That's going to make our job a whole bunch easier.
Why are you worried?
You’ve already told us that, in about 5 years, we will be having conversations like this:
‘Do you remember that weird bug that went round in about 2020?’
‘Oh. Vaguely. Not really. Didn’t some people stay home?’
‘Think so. What was it called. Corvid 16? Lemonavirus?’
‘Don’t remember. All I recall is the extraordinary invention of mRNA vaccines that came therefrom, able to target individual cancer cells’
‘Yeah.’ COUGHS HEAVILY ‘Me too’
The Spanish Flu was basically forgotten about until Covid.
Covid will be forgotten about in five or seven years. There's no great literature or art or tales of personal valour.
It was boring and shit and we had to stay indoors and not travel and a bunch of people (mostly older) died.
What is there to remember?
On the other hand though, what if a bunch of good came out of it? Build back better stuff? Community sprit rebound. Warring families and friends reunited. Once overlooked and under funded front line workers now thought of differently. Positive changes to the world of work. A shot in the arm to science and international cooperation, where people didn’t just put themselves first or look after their own for once. What if this reminds the human race how fragile it may be, it’s a positive if it fills Church pews?
If there’s a whole heap of positives, maybe we won’t want to forget.
A couple who work in the circus go to an adoption agency. Social workers there raise doubts about their suitability. The couple produce photos of their 50 ft motorhome, which is equipped with a beautiful nursery. The social workers then are doubtful about the education that the child would get. "We've arranged for a full-time tutor who will teach the child all the usual subjects along with French, Mandarin and computer skills." Then there are doubts about raising a child in a circus environment. "Our nanny is an expert in pediatric welfare and diet." The social workers are finally satisfied. They ask, "What age child are you hoping to adopt?" "It doesn't really matter, as long as he fits in the cannon Comments
Cricket prediction: India all out for between 275 and 300.
Sporting Index goes 250/275 but even your higher figure suggests England win fairly comfortably.
The PB consensus strongly suggests the exchanges are out on this one and may well be distorted by Asian punters. Credence is added to this theory by the way Englands price has shortened a bit since this evening while Asia sleeps.
The 2.5 England nevertheless reains a bit of a gift.
Seems like betting on cricket when India are playing usually offers lots of opportunities due to the, shall we say, "over-enthusiastic" attitude of Indian fans to the chances of their team winning matches regardless of the situation.
I estimate England's chances at 66%, the draw 33%, and India 1% despite what Ishant says. How far out do you think I am?
Better chance than that for England. I think Indian batsmen will be easy to goad into making rash shots and the wickets will fall.
Their 2 fifth day batting displays in the final 2 tests in Oz might suggest otherwise.
Oh, they're a good side alright - best in the world, imo. The odds are against them here though.
I think the Aussies, England, India and NZ are pretty much on a par, and home advantage counts a lot. Seem to recall NZ have mostly played at home in the current world test series, hence their top placing in the ranks. I think India win at 1 % is about right, and England or draw about the same. Re getting good odds on the spreads due to overconfident Indian fans, surely the same could be said for when England play footy? Often seem to be stronger favourites here than they should be.
I'd have India a shade ahead of NZ and England. Aussies have dropped back a bit, but not much. Rest I agree with completely.
If home advantage is such a big thing in test cricket, maybe more matches should be played at neutral venues in order to discover which teams really are the best when you exclude that factor.
We may soon be putting that to the test. India v NZ is the likely final at Lord's. Would be a corker.
When do tickets go on sale?
Indeed. Tickets will be hard to come by if India are playing. I wonder whether they might consider having a 6th day available just in case the match isnt completed in 5 days.
I don't think that's a practical possibility but I think in order to ensure there is a winner they could have the result adjudicated by a referee, much as they do in boxing when the contest goes the distance.
Because Boris is going to hotlink opening-up road map on infection rates and NHS capacity, surely these are the unknown/uncontrollable variables to scupper opening up because they will push up infectionand transmission rates?
1. Impact of doing over fifties first jab at same time as over seventies second, plus any unexpected lumpiness in supply of vaccine. Might not happen. Can’t be ruled out. 2. Question marks over impact of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The gnomonic specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? And if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading than thought. Already happening? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. The biggest unknown impact.
We're suffering from the same problem with vaccines that we suffered from in Lockdown One.
People forget, but on here, lockdowns were decried as not working because "we implemented a lockdown a week ago, and cases are still up 30% and therefore it doesn't work".
With the vaccine, there are two different time lags to take into account: Firstly, there's the time lag between vaccine and protection. Secondly, there's the fact that today's "positive" number is actually measuring infections two weeks.
The reported CV19 caseload today is based on (basically) the number of people vaccinated up to about 5-10 January.
In the last two weeks, there has been lots of excellent news (CureVac-GSK, the mega infection in the old age people's home in Israel with zero serious infections, Novavax, Pfizer cutting manufacturing times in half, antibody response data on the SA variant from Moderna and Pfizer, J&J, continuing falls in CV19 cases across the world, the manufacturing deals for Pfizer with Sanofi and Novartis, etc.).
And there's been one piece of bad news: that AZ is largely ineffective against the SA variant.
That's it.
Now, that sucks because we have lots of AZ. And it was a British developed vaccine.
But we also have lots of Pfizer and lots of CureVac and lots of Novavax. And the first two of these can be very rapidly changed to deal with new variants. And the more people have been vaccinated, the fewer hosts there are for the virus to have mutations in.
I don’t disagree with anything you said there. And I am carried along on the general wave of optimism of something like normal sometime this year.
But to some extent you only answered your own questions, I didn’t ask, not the three I posted?
I’ll ask them again, but differently by first subtracting what you have said.
1. Vaccinations going great guns currently but how lumpy could supply get? Especially if mutations undermine big stockpile? 2. Impact on opening up of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates. The specialty in U.K. is good, but still slower than needed to keep on top of variants spreading? Like the one bit of bad news you explained, if vaccines can’t stop mild illness of variant, there’s going to be more spreading using them. we can’t depend on new variants not bringing more bad news? 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun. I’ve had my jab, it can’t get me now, back to normal ‘I go. How might this slow down back to normal?
Re 2:
Remember mutations happen when there are lots of people who are sick with a disease. Lots of hosts mean lots of opportunities for viruses to mutate. It's no coincidence that it was Brazil and South Africa (two countries with mammoth CV19 problems) also saw mutations arrive there.
The fewer people have really major CV19 infections, the less likely we are to see mutations.
Also, this is not a one/zero thing. I'll bet you that people who had the AZ vaccine or who previously had regular CV19 turn out to have much better outcomes even if they get SA variant. Because that's the nature of our immune systems: how much of a headstart do they get, and any vaccine or any exposure to a previous coronavirus gives them some.
Last point, the new variants have all shown similar types of mutations. This is really good news: this is not a disease which appears to be able to mutate in different directions, it's one where the there appears to be just one path to greater infectiousness. That's going to make our job a whole bunch easier.
Why are you worried?
You’ve already told us that, in about 5 years, we will be having conversations like this:
‘Do you remember that weird bug that went round in about 2020?’
‘Oh. Vaguely. Not really. Didn’t some people stay home?’
‘Think so. What was it called. Corvid 16? Lemonavirus?’
‘Don’t remember. All I recall is the extraordinary invention of mRNA vaccines that came therefrom, able to target individual cancer cells’
‘Yeah.’ COUGHS HEAVILY ‘Me too’
The Spanish Flu was basically forgotten about until Covid.
Covid will be forgotten about in five or seven years. There's no great literature or art or tales of personal valour.
It was boring and shit and we had to stay indoors and not travel and a bunch of people (mostly older) died.
What is there to remember?
On the other hand though, what if a bunch of good came out of it? Build back better stuff? Community sprit rebound. Warring families and friends reunited. Once overlooked and under funded front line workers now thought of differently. Positive changes to the world of work. A shot in the arm to science and international cooperation, where people didn’t just put themselves first or look after their own for once. What if this reminds the human race how fragile it may be, it’s a positive if it fills Church pews?
If there’s a whole heap of positives, maybe we won’t want to forget.
The statue to Sir Tom will say lest we forget?
I’m probably with Robert on this one. At least in the short to medium term, people will be desperate to forget and get back to normal.
Spanish Flu isn’t, however, a good comparison because it was overshadowed and lost by the story and memory of the war.
The bigger picture medically is that we seem finally to be winning the war against viruses at the same time as the remarkable mid 20th Century victories against bacteria may be starting to slip away.
For Corona, I know of a fair few people whose lives have been changed, who will look back on it as a pivotal event. Some whose dreams have been wrecked, some who have been pushed or prompted to give long-held but unlikely-ever-to-be-fulfilled dreams a go.
For society as a whole? Ask again in ten years’ time.
Except, maybe we are being a bit too glib about the economics? The huge spending during the crisis will be with us for a long time. It has surely wrecked any possibility that ‘normal economics’ will return; austerity was its last hurrah, and there is no going back now. Future or bust! The pernicious effects of the ‘weird” economics we now take for granted are everywhere to be seen; whether the model is sustainable for the long term, we don’t yet know.
A couple who work in the circus go to an adoption agency. Social workers there raise doubts about their suitability. The couple produce photos of their 50 ft motorhome, which is equipped with a beautiful nursery. The social workers then are doubtful about the education that the child would get. "We've arranged for a full-time tutor who will teach the child all the usual subjects along with French, Mandarin and computer skills." Then there are doubts about raising a child in a circus environment. "Our nanny is an expert in pediatric welfare and diet." The social workers are finally satisfied. They ask, "What age child are you hoping to adopt?" "It doesn't really matter, as long as he fits in the cannon Comments
Comments
It’s a war not just on Covid, but a war on the crazy propaganda on the net.
Talk of lumpiness in supply should be thing of the past now.
1% is 2 significant figures in the first place, not zero significant figures.
Pretty sure Churchill, despite his limited education (
https://twitter.com/ASFleischman/status/1358788915428220931
--AS
But I’d be surprised a government would just roll it out without a trial (a killed vaccine they could)
But the police have form in making arrests in similar high profile cases, which then go nowhere.
Whoever posted it is an offensive git, but that is not yet a crime.
In the middle of a pandemic, there’s not much reason to take months on extended trials, and I would think that would apply both to the adenovirus and mRNA vaccines.
A lot of this is situational, though, and depends on how bad (or not) things get again.
Doesn't make them vote Tory though - the whole thing is seen by many as an Act of God that governments and populations get through as well as possible, deserving neither praise nor blame.
I instruct this post to delete automatically when I'm proved wrong.
Trolling the late National Treasure Captain Sir Tom could be a gateway to nastier unpleasantness.
He's from Lanarkshire? Put him in the Juggs in Kilmaurs!
When do tickets go on sale?
You’ve already told us that, in about 5 years, we will be having conversations like this:
‘Do you remember that weird bug that went round in about 2020?’
‘Oh. Vaguely. Not really. Didn’t some people stay home?’
‘Think so. What was it called. Corvid 16? Lemonavirus?’
‘Don’t remember. All I recall is the extraordinary invention of mRNA vaccines that came therefrom, able to target individual cancer cells’
‘Yeah.’ COUGHS HEAVILY ‘Me too’
https://news.sky.com/story/captain-sir-tom-moore-man-35-charged-over-alleged-offensive-tweet-about-nhs-fundraiser-12212582
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55985562
A lot more users than i thought there was.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgm5n0pfQzY
Covid will be forgotten about in five or seven years. There's no great literature or art or tales of personal valour.
It was boring and shit and we had to stay indoors and not travel and a bunch of people (mostly older) died.
What is there to remember?
Social workers there raise doubts about their suitability.
The couple produce photos of their 50 ft motorhome, which is equipped with a beautiful nursery.
The social workers then are doubtful about the education that the child would get.
"We've arranged for a full-time tutor who will teach the child all the usual subjects along with French, Mandarin and computer skills."
Then there are doubts about raising a child in a circus environment.
"Our nanny is an expert in pediatric welfare and diet."
The social workers are finally satisfied.
They ask, "What age child are you hoping to adopt?"
"It doesn't really matter, as long as he fits in the cannon
Comments
Once overlooked and under funded front line workers now thought of differently.
Positive changes to the world of work.
A shot in the arm to science and international cooperation, where people didn’t just put themselves first or look after their own for once.
What if this reminds the human race how fragile it may be, it’s a positive if it fills Church pews?
If there’s a whole heap of positives, maybe we won’t want to forget.
The statue to Sir Tom will say lest we forget?
Interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_triangle_(Channel_4)
Spanish Flu isn’t, however, a good comparison because it was overshadowed and lost by the story and memory of the war.
The bigger picture medically is that we seem finally to be winning the war against viruses at the same time as the remarkable mid 20th Century victories against bacteria may be starting to slip away.
For Corona, I know of a fair few people whose lives have been changed, who will look back on it as a pivotal event. Some whose dreams have been wrecked, some who have been pushed or prompted to give long-held but unlikely-ever-to-be-fulfilled dreams a go.
For society as a whole? Ask again in ten years’ time.
Except, maybe we are being a bit too glib about the economics? The huge spending during the crisis will be with us for a long time. It has surely wrecked any possibility that ‘normal economics’ will return; austerity was its last hurrah, and there is no going back now. Future or bust! The pernicious effects of the ‘weird” economics we now take for granted are everywhere to be seen; whether the model is sustainable for the long term, we don’t yet know.