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Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,169
    RobD said:

    You have to wonder why they aren't signing up? Sounds like free money.
    Maybe the criterion that the owner or board must have a relative who is a Tory MP is proving just that bit too challenging?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,724

    The target for that is still autumn, again think we are clearly on track for before end of July on that (assuming first jabs count). Autumn covers 1 Sept to 21 Dec so the govt target doesnt tell us much. If its as seasonal as last year and the vulnerable are already vaccinated the exact pace in the summer hopefully might not actually matter much.
    Sorry - autumn is 1/9 to 30/11. The use of equinoxes is madness.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited February 2021
    How can they organize procurement of 100 millions of vaccine doses, help set up new manufacturing plants, oversee an impressive vaccine roll out, but not book a few hotel rooms?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,879
    edited February 2021

    I'll take on board that Owen doesn't look TERRIFICALLY rock'n'roll, but the self described twat in tweed is the very antithesis of r&r.

    https://twitter.com/TheBembridge/status/1358461117161472000?s=20

    Although the new Jones lockdown hair - not the above - is very One Direction.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited February 2021
    maaarsh said:
    We need to be careful with these tweets....we get these every week now, and most of the time it is only half the picture.

    We had stories 3-4 weeks ago about half and 2/3 the amount to be delivered to particular areas, then when we actually get the numbers for those weeks across the whole country, it was all well up on previous weeks.

    Maybe this week will be different, but it hasn't followed so far.
  • kinabalu said:

    Although the new Jones lockdown hair - not the above - is very One Direction.
    I hope you're not suggesting One Direction are rock n roll?
  • HYUFD said:

    By definition a leftwinger cannot be a libertarian as a libertarian wants as low tax and low public spending and limited regulation as possible.

    Just the same as by definition a social conservative cannot be a libertarian either as a libertarian wants social liberalism and as little government interference in peoples' personal life as possible
    You're thinking about Social Democrats rather than the Left per se. The revolutionary forefathers of the Left didn't have much time for tax as it was mainly levied by the barons on the peasants. It would have been the de Pfeffel Johnsons of yesteryear who were keen.
  • How can they organize procurement of 100 millions of vaccine doses, help set up new manufacturing plants, oversee an impressive vaccine roll out, but not book a few hotel rooms?
    Because they didn't organise the procurement of vaccines - they delegated it to someone who could.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,934
    TOPPING said:

    The amazing thing if you look at it is how many medieval kings ruled/lived for such a long time.

    Even the plonkers - John, Edward II, Stephen.

    And the ones that ruled/lived for a long time did so for a hugely long time given the circs (of being in medieval England).
    Though occasionally you'd get a run of short reigns - as in early 14th C France, where four kings came and went in the space of 14 years.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,850

    There's are genuine issues which some of us with a background in pharma, mathematics or medicine raised at the start. The clinical trial was messy, claims were made about the "serendipitous" half-dose quasi-trial which were quietly dropped, and the basic fact is that it is somewhat less effective than Pfizer's vaccine and the evidence for the elderly is less compelling so far. We've been inhibited in making a song and dance about it, since it's obviously far better than nothing, it seems to largely prevent serious illness (the current SA issues are all about not preventing mild illness) and it's readily available in Britain.

    The fact that this has got conflated with vaccine nationalism, the EU failure to order anything sufficiently early and local pride (it's from Oxford so must be good...) and the media love of hyping/debunking is just irritating at best and dangerous at worst. We should admit that it's not perfect and other/later vaccines may be better, but for now it's pretty good at keeping us out of hospitals and morgues, and that's what we mostly care about. I'm glad I got a Pfizer jab but given an Oxford/nothing choice I'd have taken it in a heartbeat. I don't understand why South Africa has halted using it at all.
    I also think there is a recognition that mRNA is the future of beating this and future pandemics though. AZ and Oxford have done a great job to produce a vaccine that can be easily transported and stored all over the world at $3 per dose and prevents severe symptoms, hospitalisation and death against all forms of the virus. Going forwards we will need to start looking at how we can beat it to the extent that future vaccines prevent people from getting it at all so they can't spread it and getting an large enough immune response to produce a lot of neutralising antibodies so people aren't infected. The government seems to have recognised this as well, hence the deal with CureVac for long term supply of mRNA vaccines to be produced domestically.

    I think the issue is how to we get from here where we have got a medical and hospital emergency to a point where we are preventing people from getting it in the first place globally. That isn't an easy question to answer IMO, the US, UK and other developed countries will be fine, we have the means to subsidise development of these new generation of vaccines that will help us defeat it domestically. I don't know how the developing world deals with this though.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,403
    edited February 2021
    Brillo will be absolutely ragin' that they're calling it the UK strain..

    https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1358783167541477379?s=20
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,785

    If it’s not a supply constraint they should open it up to younger people.
    I was wondering about this - would the capacity be there to just have a free for all? ie if they just said turn up like the Primark/Harrods sale.
  • You're thinking about Social Democrats rather than the Left per se. The revolutionary forefathers of the Left didn't have much time for tax as it was mainly levied by the barons on the peasants. It would have been the de Pfeffel Johnsons of yesteryear who were keen.
    Hence why Robin Hood was against taxes not in favour of them.

    Somewhere along the way the Left got terribly confused.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,383
    DougSeal said:

    I think it has to be the snow.
    There were reports on Friday I think it was, of some vaccination centres in England closing for the weekend due to the anticipated weather.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited February 2021

    Because they didn't organise the procurement of vaccines - they delegated it to someone who could.....
    Well I don't expect Boris to be on booking.com reserving rooms here either. It can't be that hard to find somebody with reasonable experience in travel industry to sort this out, it isn't like they are very busy at the moment otherwise.
  • Nigelb said:

    Though occasionally you'd get a run of short reigns - as in early 14th C France, where four kings came and went in the space of 14 years.
    Which is the period that inspired the books.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,934

    I hope you're not suggesting One Direction are rock n roll?
    No, it just all sticks straight up.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,289

    Hence why Robin Hood was against taxes not in favour of them.

    Somewhere along the way the Left got terribly confused.
    You could argue that Robin Hood was for taxes levied by himself upon the rich :wink:
  • Well I don't expect Boris to be on booking.com reserving rooms here either. It can't be that hard to find somebody with reasonable experience in travel industry to sort this out, it isn't like they are very busy at the moment otherwise.
    This should have been planned months ago - and as the Aussies have found, its not easy to do well....
  • TOPPING said:

    The amazing thing if you look at it is how many medieval kings ruled/lived for such a long time.

    Even the plonkers - John, Edward II, Stephen.

    And the ones that ruled/lived for a long time did so for a hugely long time given the circs (of being in medieval England).
    Edward the second did some good things: he was know as "our memorable founder" in the college prayer when I was at university...
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    You have to blow off steam sometimes. With me, I think the cumulative effect of low level anxiety and digital only life over a long period has suddenly popped a synapse and I feel quite genuinely a bit disassociated from what used to be familiar and important. It's like I have a padded Michelin man suit on, plus glasses with the wrong prescription. Nothing terrible but definitely a touch of the old existential angst.
    I know what you mean. You've also made me miss those crepes, which I first had back when I was literally in short trousers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited February 2021

    This should have been planned months ago - and as the Aussies have found, its not easy to do well....
    Well I don't disagree with that. I said on here a few days ago, I can't believe that at the very very least some civil servants hadn't been sent off to do a planning exercise relating to this months ago, even if they never wanted to have to use it.

    Again, the UK government were pretty good at quickly doing deals with private hospitals for capacity back this time last year. You would think they could do similar for hotels, especially as they don't exactly have many guests at the moment.

    I actually feel it is more the government (for whatever reason) just don't want to implement this policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,187
    edited February 2021

    You're thinking about Social Democrats rather than the Left per se. The revolutionary forefathers of the Left didn't have much time for tax as it was mainly levied by the barons on the peasants. It would have been the de Pfeffel Johnsons of yesteryear who were keen.
    The left by definition wants higher taxes and an expanded role for the state.

    Those who in the past led the peasants revolt or the American colonists revolt and initially the French revolution for example were against the ancien regime and Feudal system, they were not really leftwing.

    Indeed the libertarian, small state Tea Party grouping within the Republican Party were so named after the Boston Tea Party revolt against British rule and the tax on tea but are anything but leftwing
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,289

    How can they organize procurement of 100 millions of vaccine doses, help set up new manufacturing plants, oversee an impressive vaccine roll out, but not book a few hotel rooms?
    Insufficient supply (of Kate Binghams)
  • Edward the second did some good things: he was know as "our memorable founder" in the college prayer when I was at university...
    Graced the lovely, wee beauty spot of Bannockburn with his presence..
  • How can they organize procurement of 100 millions of vaccine doses, help set up new manufacturing plants, oversee an impressive vaccine roll out, but not book a few hotel rooms?
    Great achievement as the vaccine procurement has been, it was done by getting someone capable in and giving them a remarkably blank cheque. The right thing to do, but you can't run all of government on that basis.

    The rest of it is still the usual shambles.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,280
    HYUFD said:

    By definition a leftwinger cannot be a libertarian as a libertarian wants as low tax and low public spending and limited regulation as possible.

    Just the same as by definition a social conservative cannot be a libertarian either as a libertarian wants social liberalism and as little government interference in peoples' personal life as possible
    Yes, I think I agree.

    The Spiked journos, for instance, badge themselves as left-wing libertarians but I wouldn`t say they are left wing and I`m not convinced that they are full-on libertarians either. They are clearly strong liberals, fierce defenders of the working class and pretty much centre ground on the left-right thing.

    Libertarians can`t be left wing because thinking about negative and positive conceptions of liberty libertarians only support the former whereas liberals are mad keen on both.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,879
    Pagan2 said:

    I agree for essential public services, your entertainment is not an essential service however
    But a publicly funded broadcaster with an 'entertain and educate' mission IS essential. Or at least essential enough to be classed as a public service. This has become circular. As all debates involving a clash of values do.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,280
    kinabalu said:

    But a publicly funded broadcaster with an 'entertain and educate' mission IS essential. Or at least essential enough to be classed as a public service. This has become circular. As all debates involving a clash of values do.
    Libertarians would never accept the "educate" bit of what you have written.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited February 2021

    Great achievement as the vaccine procurement has been, it was done by getting someone capable in and giving them a remarkably blank cheque. The right thing to do, but you can't run all of government on that basis.

    The rest of it is still the usual shambles.
    Not true. Testing capacity is exceptionally good these days and well organized. See how quickly they have got the surge testing up and running in all these postcodes with the SA variant.

    As I pointed out below the UK government managed to quickly do deal with private hospitals back this time last year (and got a good deal in terms of cost / bed).

    I really think they underlying motivate is that there are people in government who just don't want to do this policy, hence the constant massive feet dragging. It isn't exactly complicated to get all the CEOs of the major chain hotels on the phone and do a deal with them, they need the business.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2021
    Stocky said:

    That`s from an excellent article - my favorite - probably because I agree with all of it - from Snowdon a few weeks ago which @isam originally posted:

    https://quillette.com/2021/01/16/rise-of-the-coronavirus-cranks/

    Important to be clear that Snowdon is criticising those who think along the lines of the two paragraphs that you quote.
    There are so many strawmen in that article its not true.

    The reason that folk like Snowdon and Andy Cooke hate people like me is we will not let them impose lockdowns with a clear conscience.

    Covid kills its absolutely true, but so to lockdowns. Its an inconvenient truth for Snowdon, and Andy, and everybody else, but truth it is nevertheless. The covid deaths are happening now, but many of the lockdown deaths will happen down the line, from the horrible problems that lockdown has caused. Mental illness, alcoholism, drug abuse, problems with inactivity and poverty.

    The USA may be giving us a laboratory for this because some states, in all climates, did not lockdown meaningfully over winter. How are their excess death rates, relative to those that did? More importantly, how will they be in the future, when covid is gone and the problems lockdown has caused are still with us?


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    If it’s not a supply constraint they should open it up to younger people.
    As the volume ramps up, and everyone involved with the vaccine centers has already been done twice, there needs to be a way of encouraging people to queue at the end of the day to collect surplus vaccines - in a socially distanced and responsible way, of course.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Selebian said:

    Thanks. Have to wait a little bit for the pre-print then. I know the SA variant is probably dominant, but it will be interesting to see the uncertainty in a 2000 person sample size. Part of the picture, but irresponsible reporting of it in some of the press (looking at the Guardian in particular).
    More crunchy data here, including confidence intervals (spoiler: huge)

    https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1358540001051627522
  • Selebian said:

    Insufficient supply (of Kate Binghams)
    Surfeit of Didos
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    HYUFD said:
    It's really difficult for the LotO to make himself heard when there's a massive crisis going on, hence the big gap in the middle.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited February 2021
    Sandpit said:

    As the volume ramps up, and everyone involved with the vaccine centers has already been done twice, there needs to be a way of encouraging people to queue at the end of the day to collect surplus vaccines - in a socially distanced and responsible way, of course.
    With social media, it seems like it should be really easy. They must know by early afternoon if they are going to have many spare. They just need a twitter handle / account for all of this, and each centre fires off a tweet saying looks like spares, come queue from 5pm.

    No need for complex app or anything.
  • Sorry - autumn is 1/9 to 30/11. The use of equinoxes is madness.
    Good luck tying this government down to your preferred definitions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    MaxPB said:

    Cheers, I think we could have just about got a house around the West Hampstead/Kilburn parts but we would have been stretching to the limit and had to make compromises on life quality afterwards, plus we're only moving up the road to near Fortis Green which I think will have better life quality than West Hampstead.

    The only thing I'll miss is being within walking distance to the Heath. It's such a great spot in the summer.
    Walking distance to the darts at Ally Pally now though!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,280
    edited February 2021

    There are so many strawmen in that article its not true.

    The reason that folk like Snowdon and Andy Cooke hate people like me is we will not let them impose lockdowns with a clear conscience.

    Covid kills its absolutely true, but so to lockdowns. Its an inconvenient truth for Snowdon, and Andy, and everybody else, but truth it is nevertheless. The covid deaths are happening now, but many of the lockdown deaths will happen down the line, from the horrible problems that lockdown has caused. mental illness, alcoholism, drug abuse, problems with inactivity and poverty.

    The USA may be giving us a laboratory for this because some states, in all climates, did not lockdown meaningfully over winter. How are their excess death rates, relative to those that did? More importantly, how will they be in the future, when covid is gone and the problems lockdown has caused are still with us?


    I agree with you that the harm by the virus is much more visible than the harm created by the lockdowns, so there is a risk (indeed a reality) that the latter is not sufficiently being factored in. I said as much in my first header for PB.com at the end of March. So I`m not against you Contrarian and value the view that you bring.

    It`s a question of balance though.

    Snowdon is not pro-lockdown by any measure, he (and I) have come on board on a short-term basis only due to the invention of the vaccines (as long as this implies "short term") and the fact that medical services are stretched.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,998
    edited February 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Cheers, I think we could have just about got a house around the West Hampstead/Kilburn parts but we would have been stretching to the limit and had to make compromises on life quality afterwards, plus we're only moving up the road to near Fortis Green which I think will have better life quality than West Hampstead.

    The only thing I'll miss is being within walking distance to the Heath. It's such a great spot in the summer.
    Fortis Green? I know it well. You’re about 2 minutes from Highgate Woods, which are lovely in summer, if not quite as majestic as the Heath

    Also a very good state school there: Fortismere
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,888
    kinabalu said:

    But a publicly funded broadcaster with an 'entertain and educate' mission IS essential. Or at least essential enough to be classed as a public service. This has become circular. As all debates involving a clash of values do.
    The bbc does precious little in the way of educate these days. If was a channel doing 24 hour in depth documentaries I would maybe agree with you. However 90%+ of its output is game shows,talk shows,soaps,second rate drama and what little it does in the form of documentaries is shallow
  • Graced the lovely, wee beauty spot of Bannockburn with his presence..
    At that point in history my (paternal) ancestors would have been fighting against him then.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,724
    TOPPING said:

    I was wondering about this - would the capacity be there to just have a free for all? ie if they just said turn up like the Primark/Harrods sale.
    I suspect both issues are occurring - running out of the 1-4 groups and in some places not enough supply.
    Happily for me I expect to get vaccinated through work fairly soon (Pharmacy education) as will be in contact with students who are out in Hospitals/Community pharmacy placements.
    i
  • Well I don't disagree with that. I said on here a few days ago, I can't believe that at the very very least some civil servants hadn't been sent off to do a planning exercise relating to this months ago, even if they never wanted to have to use it.

    Again, the UK government were pretty good at quickly doing deals with private hospitals for capacity back this time last year. You would think they could do similar for hotels, especially as they don't exactly have many guests at the moment.

    I actually feel it is more the government (for whatever reason) just don't want to implement this policy.
    Agree - I suspect its a bit like Cameron's "No planning for Brexit" edict.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,766

    Supply constraint kicking in I guess.

    That said, on WATO they referenced vaccination centres in Hackney closing early on 3 days last week because of lack of take up...
    Sunday...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,879
    edited February 2021
    HYUFD said:

    By definition a leftwinger cannot be a libertarian as a libertarian wants as low tax and low public spending and limited regulation as possible.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Bakunin - does he never crop up in conversations round Epping way?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,724
    edited February 2021

    Graced the lovely, wee beauty spot of Bannockburn with his presence..
    From all accounts Eddie 2 seemed a bit of an odd fish by the kingly standards of the day. Apparently liked to get down and dirty with peasant folk going about their work, ditching, hedging etc. Probably not what was needed or expected by the elites of the day...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,379
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    There are so many strawmen in that article its not true.

    The reason that folk like Snowdon and Andy Cooke hate people like me is we will not let them impose lockdowns with a clear conscience.

    Covid kills its absolutely true, but so to lockdowns. Its an inconvenient truth for Snowdon, and Andy, and everybody else, but truth it is nevertheless. The covid deaths are happening now, but many of the lockdown deaths will happen down the line, from the horrible problems that lockdown has caused. Mental illness, alcoholism, drug abuse, problems with inactivity and poverty.

    The USA may be giving us a laboratory for this because some states, in all climates, did not lockdown meaningfully over winter. How are their excess death rates, relative to those that did? More importantly, how will they be in the future, when covid is gone and the problems lockdown has caused are still with us?


    Oh, I don't hate you.
    I'm amused by your fantasies.
    The ones that "whatever-it-is" is being made up (such as vaccine issues, or transmissibility, or mortality) in order to justify a mysterious and dark conspiracy of scientists and world leaders to keep us all under control.

    As it happens, I hate lockdowns. I had been advocating regional restrictions instead, and targetting them more strongly. My frequent use of the term "find the low hanging fruit" back in the day refers to that: some restrictions are far more efficacious than others and have less impact - find them and use them.
    And use of rapid testing to avoid lockdowns and even restrictions. Never happened, unfortunately.

    Unfortunately lockdowns have been shown to be the only reliable way of turning the spread down. I still think there are more intelligent ways to do it, but experimenting right now is unwise. Should have been tried in August and early September (when the Cummins, Young, Yeadon, Hartley-Brewers, etc were screaming "False Positives!" and "Casedemic!")

    You persist in ignoring the negative effects of not locking down as well - the impact on economies and mental health of letting the virus have freer rein.
    I very much doubt you'll ever change that; it doesn't seem to fit your worldview and habit of very motivated reasoning.

    'Tis a pity; there's a useful debate to be had on what types of restriction and what level of them is best overall, but you do persist in the dark conspiracies.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited February 2021

    Not true. Testing capacity is exceptionally good these days and well organized. See how quickly they have got the surge testing up and running in all these postcodes with the SA variant.

    As I pointed out below the UK government managed to quickly do deal with private hospitals back this time last year (and got a good deal in terms of cost / bed).

    I really think they underlying motivate is that there are people in government who just don't want to do this policy, hence the constant massive feet dragging. It isn't exactly complicated to get all the CEOs of the major chain hotels on the phone and do a deal with them, they need the business.
    Yep - the "Civil" service don't want to do it, and the lawyers will be suggesting that there's some breach of human rights etc etc.

    There's also an unwillingness to understand the scale of the issue - there were a million people through LHR in December, how many hotel rooms do we actually need?

    The hotelliers will be wanting government to underwrite every single room in such an hotel, including for staff, for periods of disinfection and all the additional security required. Security was a huge issue in Australia, they initially hired a bunch of 'bouncers' in the hotels who had a habit of ending up in guest bedrooms and going home afterwards infected.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,850
    "The secret police got out of control". Err, right.

    Is this a spoof?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,879
    Stocky said:

    Libertarians would never accept the "educate" bit of what you have written.
    Well that's fine. I'm not one.
    Of course I do mean educate in the non-loaded, non-sinister sense.
  • Churchill would probably have had you in the jail if you'd published the cons list between 1941-45.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,998
    MaxPB said:

    "The secret police got out of control". Err, right.

    Is this a spoof?
    That cannot be true.

    ‘He got rid of’ = had them kidnapped, brutally tortured and murdered
  • Anybody else feeling a bit rough from all the early starts to watch the cricket? Never mind, only one more day to go.

    I see I'm not the only poster here to question the logic of the odds. England are no certainties to clinch the win but I reckon they should be about 4/6 to take nine wickets on this Chennai wicket. Betdaq have it about the other way round. I really think that must be Asian money betting according to the heart rather than the head. England took six wickets on day three so nine on day five looks about par for the course.

    Anyway, I'm on, as you may have figured, and looking forward to getting up nice and early tomorrow for the crucial first session.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    In other news, picking up the keys to our new house tomorrow!

    Everything finally went through and we've also just sold our flat.

    Moving day on Saturday, finally we'll have a garden. Just hope the weather improves soon.

    It's going to be so different living in a 4 bedroom house compared to our tiny little flat. Will be sad to say goodbye to Hampstead, it's been a lovely 5 years.

    Whereabouts are you moving to Max?
  • The old Cuba style, the plebs learned to read and write, and medical treatment was excellent....according to tractor stats produced by the regime.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,998
    MaxPB said:

    "The secret police got out of control". Err, right.

    Is this a spoof?
    Apparently not a spoof. JFC
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,379
    Leon said:

    That cannot be true.

    ‘He got rid of’ = had them kidnapped, brutally tortured and murdered
    And I just noticed:
    Con: Living standards did not go up
    Pro: Living standards went up

    :D
  • RobD said:
    "His leadership helped the Soviet Union win the Second World War"?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    DougSeal said:

    I think it has to be the snow.

    Yup, that has got to be weather related. It's going to be a very disappointing return and will put the government under a slight pressure for the rest of the week.

    More snow forecast today and tomorrow. It's been snowing here all day!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Sandpit said:

    It's really difficult for the LotO to make himself heard when there's a massive crisis going on, hence the big gap in the middle.
    He certainly made himself heard [&felt?] last week .....fibbing like the partner of a first Minister :smiley:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,187
    kinabalu said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Bakunin - does he never crop up in conversations round Epping way?
    'Was a Russian revolutionary anarchist, socialist and founder of collectivist anarchism.'

    So obviously not a libertarian who is by definition the opposite of a socialist but still respects the rule of law
  • glwglw Posts: 10,383
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,289

    More crunchy data here, including confidence intervals (spoiler: huge)

    https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1358540001051627522
    Thanks, that's interesting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited February 2021

    Thread:

    twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1358749325610737665?s=20

    Reinfection is extremely possible....thats very bad news. Up to now, they think reinfection rate is about 0.7%.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Oh, I don't hate you.
    I'm amused by your fantasies.
    The ones that "whatever-it-is" is being made up (such as vaccine issues, or transmissibility, or mortality) in order to justify a mysterious and dark conspiracy of scientists and world leaders to keep us all under control.

    As it happens, I hate lockdowns. I had been advocating regional restrictions instead, and targetting them more strongly. My frequent use of the term "find the low hanging fruit" back in the day refers to that: some restrictions are far more efficacious than others and have less impact - find them and use them.
    And use of rapid testing to avoid lockdowns and even restrictions. Never happened, unfortunately.

    Unfortunately lockdowns have been shown to be the only reliable way of turning the spread down. I still think there are more intelligent ways to do it, but experimenting right now is unwise. Should have been tried in August and early September (when the Cummins, Young, Yeadon, Hartley-Brewers, etc were screaming "False Positives!" and "Casedemic!")

    You persist in ignoring the negative effects of not locking down as well - the impact on economies and mental health of letting the virus have freer rein.
    I very much doubt you'll ever change that; it doesn't seem to fit your worldview and habit of very motivated reasoning.

    'Tis a pity; there's a useful debate to be had on what types of restriction and what level of them is best overall, but you do persist in the dark conspiracies.

    There is no grand conspiracy on lockdown. None at all. But as the government itself is finding out today, amid a concerted effort to discredit its vaccine program, there are powerful people out there with their own agenda.


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,850

    Whereabouts are you moving to Max?
    Just off Fortis Green, we've bought the worst house on the best street kind of house. It needs a lot of work which is also why I'm keen for this lockdown to end so we can get the ball rolling for all of the work it needs doing to it. It's not very far tbf, only a 10-15 minute drive.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,390
    So Stalin wasn't such a bad guy after all. Was the work edited by Jeremy Corbyn?

    The pros and cons of Hamas and the IRA will be enlightening, no doubt.
  • The question for the government now is, when we start to get all these other vaccines that appear to be much better against Saffers Covid, do we send all the oldies back around again and give them shots of that, rather than wait until the winter for the updated vaccines?
  • So Stalin wasn't such a bad guy after all. Was the work edited by Jeremy Corbyn?

    The pros and cons of Hamas and the IRA will be enlightening, no doubt.
    Hamas cons - Not very progressive on LGTQ issues.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Anybody else feeling a bit rough from all the early starts to watch the cricket? Never mind, only one more day to go.

    I see I'm not the only poster here to question the logic of the odds. England are no certainties to clinch the win but I reckon they should be about 4/6 to take nine wickets on this Chennai wicket. Betdaq have it about the other way round. I really think that must be Asian money betting according to the heart rather than the head. England took six wickets on day three so nine on day five looks about par for the course.

    Anyway, I'm on, as you may have figured, and looking forward to getting up nice and early tomorrow for the crucial first session.

    Having mostly avoided external work for the past four days, I will annoyingly catch only about an hour in the morning and an hour in the evening tomorrow. The Betfair odds make no sense unless there's rain which isn't forecast - dodgy bookies in India can't make them bat any better.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    "His leadership helped the Soviet Union win the Second World War"?
    However no mention of getting the trains to run on time. Tsk.
  • This thread has been shut down like many vaccination centres over the past few days...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,998
    edited February 2021
    Shit. The truly alarming thing there is what I feared most: past infection with ‘normal’ Covid provides no immunity against SA Covid. This bug is Satanic

    If the Safferbug runs riot in the UK this spring we will be back to square one. They won’t be able to tweak any of the vaccines in time. People will catch it again who’ve already had it. People vaxxed with AZ will also get it. Hopefully they will only get mild/moderate cases, but we don’t know that yet, for sure.

    I don’t want to come over all Black Rook but this is ominous. To me it suggests lockdown until Autumn. And yet I just don’t think the economy can hack that, or the nation’s mental health. So what gives?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,785
    edited February 2021

    There is no grand conspiracy on lockdown. None at all. But as the government itself is finding out today, amid a concerted effort to discredit its vaccine program, there are powerful people out there with their own agenda.
    I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about lockdown but I do think, as I have said from March, that government by Chief Medical Officer is not something I approve of.

    Equally, if you have a press conference every day at 5pm with the PM and CMO and Head of the NHS about, say, smoking, or mountaineering, or 3-day eventing, you will pretty soon end up with a ban on those activities.

    The only relevant criteria are hospitalisations and deaths. The lockdowns were, depending on the govt's particular PR aim, to protect the NHS and/or to save lives. If hospitalisations decrease to the point whereby we are not facing a "crisis" and there is a reduced or no danger of hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns should end.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,850
    kinabalu said:

    Nice one. But that's a big final choice. Once you leave Hampstead the door closes on a particular world. No more nosing around nooks and crannies near the Heath. No more chewing the fat with ruined old geezers down the Flask. No more early evening joshing with vibrant young progressives around the crepe van.
    Yeah it's definitely going to be different. Hampstead definitely has a really different feel to it than other parts I've lived in. It's like a self contained little suburb near the centre of London with amazing pubs, cafes and restaurants. We didn't really frequent the Flask, on the other side of the Heath, more Highgate than Hampstead.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,042
    glw said:
    Is there a similar pro and con about Hitler? (Kind to animals, made trains run on time, promoted cross stitch, helped old ladies over the road and so on)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,850
    Leon said:

    Shit. The truly alarming thing there is what I feared most: past infection with ‘normal’ Covid provides no immunity against SA Covid. This bug is Satanic

    If the Safferbug runs riot in the UK this spring we will be back to square one. They won’t be able to tweak any of the vaccines in time. People will catch it again who’ve already had it. People vaxxed with AZ will also get it. Hopefully they will only get mild/moderate cases, but we don’t know that yet, for sure.

    I don’t want to come over all Black Rook but this is ominous. To me it suggests lockdown until Autumn. And yet I just don’t think the economy can hack that, or the nation’s mental health. So what gives?
    We've already got booster shots for it on the way and daily capacity to vaccinate 1m people per day.

    We also have a long term bet with Valneva and CureVac.

    We're also investing in world leading mutation busting modelling to predict viral evolutionary pathways so that future vaccines are one step ahead of the game.

    What this means is that the government needs to get serious about border controls. Have a completely open economy and I'd also suggest a two island approach with Ireland. Once we've got the infrastructure in place to rapidly immunise people to variants with CureVac we can begin to roll out vaccine passports for overseas travel.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,164
    HYUFD said:

    'Was a Russian revolutionary anarchist, socialist and founder of collectivist anarchism.'

    So obviously not a libertarian who is by definition the opposite of a socialist but still respects the rule of law
    How about Peter Kropotkin?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    On topic - great article by Allister. I really hadn't thought about distribution effect on changes. It matters not a significant amount if a majority is 80 or 90 and people are most keen to see equity as votes are balanced out.

    If my calculation is correct 17 mil/ 75 days = approx 225000 a day - surely we will be quicker than that
  • MaxPB said:

    Yeah it's definitely going to be different. Hampstead definitely has a really different feel to it than other parts I've lived in. It's like a self contained little suburb near the centre of London with amazing pubs, cafes and restaurants. We didn't really frequent the Flask, on the other side of the Heath, more Highgate than Hampstead.
    Hampstead is great, but nobody should live there too long. Five years would be about right.

    Good luck in your new place, Max.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    On topic - great article by Allister. I really hadn't thought about distribution effect on changes. It matters not a significant amount if a majority is 80 or 90 and people are most keen to see equity as votes are balanced out.

    If my calculation is correct 17 mil/ 75 days = approx 225000 a day - surely we will be quicker than that

    Don't forget we'll be starting to ramp up second doses from next month, so that'll eat into some of the capacity and supply, but it does seem doable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,390

    Hamas cons - Not very progressive on LGTQ issues.
    IRA. cons- Personal hygiene when in custody was suboptimal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,934

    Great achievement as the vaccine procurement has been, it was done by getting someone capable in and giving them a remarkably blank cheque. The right thing to do, but you can't run all of government on that basis.

    The rest of it is still the usual shambles.
    It wasn't a blank cheque so much as complete freedom to choose partners and negotiate deals for the government to sign off on.

    The blank cheque approach seems to have been taken with test, track & trace. With pretty dismal results.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,669
    Nigelb said:

    The books were loosely based on this series of historical novels:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Accursed_Kings
    Inspired not based I'd say. That's a good series, up to the bizarre moment the author's favourite character dies and the story essentially just stops, and the last book is in a very different style and crap.

    Obviously GOT is not even attempting to be follow a pseudo historical narrative (Crown of Stars might be closer) and Giuliani just meant its inspired by medieval times, but hes an idiot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,669
    glw said:
    Thats where it has crossed a line from an odd and unhelpful way of assessing him in context to a bizarre near apologia, at least on that point.

    For crying out loud given the first in the con column I dont think anyone thought he personally fired every shot either.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Stocky said:

    Yes, I think I agree.

    The Spiked journos, for instance, badge themselves as left-wing libertarians but I wouldn`t say they are left wing and I`m not convinced that they are full-on libertarians either. They are clearly strong liberals, fierce defenders of the working class and pretty much centre ground on the left-right thing.

    Libertarians can`t be left wing because thinking about negative and positive conceptions of liberty libertarians only support the former whereas liberals are mad keen on both.
    A libertarian is someone who advocates civil liberty, that's a perfectly reasonable definition of the word. It's the opposite of an authoritarian (of which there are very many on PB, from both left and right).

    I do worry about the Left Authoritarians on here. I would get on much better with Right Libertarians, despite being left of centre myself, liberty over all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,669

    Churchill would probably have had you in the jail if you'd published the cons list between 1941-45.
    Desperate times. Happily it hasn't been 1941-5 for some time, several years even.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,205
    This South African news is as depressing as hell.

    I can’t do another year of this.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    HYUFD said:

    'Was a Russian revolutionary anarchist, socialist and founder of collectivist anarchism.'

    So obviously not a libertarian who is by definition the opposite of a socialist but still respects the rule of law
    That's one definition of libertarian.

    The other is the opposite off authoritarian – one who advocates civil liberty.

    The Libertarian Party (capital L) has somewhat hijacked the term, sadly.

    https://chambers.co.uk/search/?query=libertarian&title=21st
This discussion has been closed.