Anybody else feeling a bit rough from all the early starts to watch the cricket? Never mind, only one more day to go.
I see I'm not the only poster here to question the logic of the odds. England are no certainties to clinch the win but I reckon they should be about 4/6 to take nine wickets on this Chennai wicket. Betdaq have it about the other way round. I really think that must be Asian money betting according to the heart rather than the head. England took six wickets on day three so nine on day five looks about par for the course.
Anyway, I'm on, as you may have figured, and looking forward to getting up nice and early tomorrow for the crucial first session.
That's possible. However, India were pretty damn impressive batting on the fifth day in the recent series in Oz. You could see why folk might take the opposite view.
In other news, picking up the keys to our new house tomorrow!
Everything finally went through and we've also just sold our flat.
Moving day on Saturday, finally we'll have a garden. Just hope the weather improves soon.
It's going to be so different living in a 4 bedroom house compared to our tiny little flat. Will be sad to say goodbye to Hampstead, it's been a lovely 5 years.
Whereabouts are you moving to Max?
Just off Fortis Green, we've bought the worst house on the best street kind of house. It needs a lot of work which is also why I'm keen for this lockdown to end so we can get the ball rolling for all of the work it needs doing to it. It's not very far tbf, only a 10-15 minute drive.
Good for you. Congratulations mate and enjoy the new home!
Shit. The truly alarming thing there is what I feared most: past infection with ‘normal’ Covid provides no immunity against SA Covid. This bug is Satanic...
Given there will be a great deal more accurate information available within a few weeks, and that for now there's little more we can be doing in terms of vaccination, developing new vaccines, or locking down (with the notable exception of traveller quarantine), panic seems unwarranted. You can panic later if the news really is grim.
And incidentally, it's quite likely that mutations in the 'South African variant' could arise (or have already happened) independently through convergent evolution (just as the UK mutation could have happened independently elsewhere), as there are only so many ways the virus can evolve to its benefit.
Thats where it has crossed a line from an odd and unhelpful way of assessing him in context to a bizarre near apologia, at least on that point.
For crying out loud given the first in the con column I dont think anyone thought he personally fired every shot either.
Play the game with Hitler - he didn't shoot anyone himself either, and no-one has ever found a signed order from him for the final solution. Plenty of apologists have claimed it was others that went out of control, or beyond the remit. Frankly Stalin is up there on my list of evil mass murderers. Just because his motivation was different from Hitler's, doesn't make it any better.
Shit. The truly alarming thing there is what I feared most: past infection with ‘normal’ Covid provides no immunity against SA Covid. This bug is Satanic
If the Safferbug runs riot in the UK this spring we will be back to square one. They won’t be able to tweak any of the vaccines in time. People will catch it again who’ve already had it. People vaxxed with AZ will also get it. Hopefully they will only get mild/moderate cases, but we don’t know that yet, for sure.
I don’t want to come over all Black Rook but this is ominous. To me it suggests lockdown until Autumn. And yet I just don’t think the economy can hack that, or the nation’s mental health. So what gives?
Why don't you read the bloody research before smearing your doom porn over what is (otherwise) a (mostly) intellectual and interesting forum?
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However, in good news, the Novavax vaccine could still protect against the South African variant, although the efficacy dropped from 95% (against the original strain) to 60% against the South African variant (49% if people living with HIV were included).
While vaccine efficacy against mild-to-moderate disease has taken a hit with regard to the South African variant, it's expected vaccine efficacy will fare better against severe disease.
This was true for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine uses similar technology to AstraZeneca, and the immune response induced by these two vaccines is similar.
For that reason, the AstraZeneca vaccine may well retain good efficacy against severe disease.
Antibodies aren't the only thing that's important.
T-cells likely play a role in preventing severe disease, and there's evidence to suggest the T cell response is not substantially affected with regard to the South African variant.
Shit. The truly alarming thing there is what I feared most: past infection with ‘normal’ Covid provides no immunity against SA Covid. This bug is Satanic
If the Safferbug runs riot in the UK this spring we will be back to square one. They won’t be able to tweak any of the vaccines in time. People will catch it again who’ve already had it. People vaxxed with AZ will also get it. Hopefully they will only get mild/moderate cases, but we don’t know that yet, for sure.
I don’t want to come over all Black Rook but this is ominous. To me it suggests lockdown until Autumn. And yet I just don’t think the economy can hack that, or the nation’s mental health. So what gives?
Why don't you read the bloody research before smearing your doom porn over what is (otherwise) a (mostly) intellectual and interesting forum?
–––
However, in good news, the Novavax vaccine could still protect against the South African variant, although the efficacy dropped from 95% (against the original strain) to 60% against the South African variant (49% if people living with HIV were included).
While vaccine efficacy against mild-to-moderate disease has taken a hit with regard to the South African variant, it's expected vaccine efficacy will fare better against severe disease.
This was true for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine uses similar technology to AstraZeneca, and the immune response induced by these two vaccines is similar.
For that reason, the AstraZeneca vaccine may well retain good efficacy against severe disease.
Antibodies aren't the only thing that's important.
T-cells likely play a role in preventing severe disease, and there's evidence to suggest the T cell response is not substantially affected with regard to the South African variant.
There is actually a significant difference between the AZN vaccine, and the otherwise very similar one from Janssen (aka J&J). Janssen use a chemically stabilised form of the spike protein in the design of their vaccine; AZN did not use the technique. It might explain the apparent difference in efficacy. (I think this is also true of the spike protein in the two mRNA vaccines form Pfizer and Moderna.)
Stabilizing the closed SARS-CoV-2 spike trimer https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7801441/ The trimeric spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2 is the primary focus of most vaccine design and development efforts. Due to intrinsic instability typical of class I fusion proteins, S tends to prematurely refold to the post-fusion conformation, compromising immunogenic properties and prefusion trimer yields. To support ongoing vaccine development efforts, we report the structure-based design of soluble S trimers with increased yields and stabilities, based on introduction of single point mutations and disulfide-bridges. We identify regions critical for stability: the heptad repeat region 1, the SD1 domain and position 614 in SD2. We combine a minimal selection of mostly interprotomeric mutations to create a stable S-closed variant with a 6.4-fold higher expression than the parental construct while no longer containing a heterologous trimerization domain. The cryo-EM structure reveals a correctly folded, predominantly closed pre-fusion conformation. Highly stable and well producing S protein and the increased understanding of S protein structure will support vaccine development and serological diagnostics....
Thats where it has crossed a line from an odd and unhelpful way of assessing him in context to a bizarre near apologia, at least on that point.
For crying out loud given the first in the con column I dont think anyone thought he personally fired every shot either.
Play the game with Hitler - he didn't shoot anyone himself either, and no-one has ever found a signed order from him for the final solution. Plenty of apologists have claimed it was others that went out of control, or beyond the remit. Frankly Stalin is up there on my list of evil mass murderers. Just because his motivation was different from Hitler's, doesn't make it any better.
Oh I agree, and the proper context for Stalin makes him look a monster, not better, that's why doing it in a pro and con list is a bizarre way of doing it, as you end up implying the pros, such as they are, are equivalent to the cons
I think this may partly be a misconception on Alistair’s part. Yes, Labour are traditionally strong in Wales, as a whole. But they are actually masking a very uneven performance with continuing strength in the surroundings of three of the five major urban areas - Cardiff, Merthyr and Swansea. Those areas (including surrounding towns e.g. Neath, Port Talbot, Pontypridd, Radyr, Caerphilly) account for around 75% of all Labour’s votes in Wales and 80% of their seats. Of the other major urban areas - Newport and Wrexham - one they clung on to by their fingernails, and the other they actually lost.
Let’s just say this. Labour have just two seats left in Wales outside the triangle from Swansea to Merthyr to Newport. Llanelli (which is closely aligned to those areas) and Alyn and Deeside, which is the most marginal seat in Wales and is in any case one of the ones set to go. They are in fact the *third* party in all that area, behind the Tories and Plaid.
And yet, it is the Valleys that are suffering depopulation and get severely reduced in any rejig. The one area where Labour continue to be strong is the one where they lose out.
So Alistair’s argument may hold up well (probably does hold up well) in Northern England, but it can’t and shouldn’t be applied to Wales.
So that’s another several seats Starmer has to find from somewhere.
I am very much with Alistair here. If the parties are level pegging at 39% , Labour is likely to reverse its 2019 losses in Wales - and could go beyond that to win Preseli Pembrokeshire and Arfon. Anglesey is possibly the most challenging for Labour due to its long history of re-electing incumbents.
Comments
You could see why folk might take the opposite view.
There isn't enough evidence to say how serious re-infection might or might not be.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/05/virus-variant-reinfection-south-africa/
Given there will be a great deal more accurate information available within a few weeks, and that for now there's little more we can be doing in terms of vaccination, developing new vaccines, or locking down (with the notable exception of traveller quarantine), panic seems unwarranted.
You can panic later if the news really is grim.
And incidentally, it's quite likely that mutations in the 'South African variant' could arise (or have already happened) independently through convergent evolution (just as the UK mutation could have happened independently elsewhere), as there are only so many ways the virus can evolve to its benefit.
Frankly Stalin is up there on my list of evil mass murderers. Just because his motivation was different from Hitler's, doesn't make it any better.
–––
However, in good news, the Novavax vaccine could still protect against the South African variant, although the efficacy dropped from 95% (against the original strain) to 60% against the South African variant (49% if people living with HIV were included).
While vaccine efficacy against mild-to-moderate disease has taken a hit with regard to the South African variant, it's expected vaccine efficacy will fare better against severe disease.
This was true for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine uses similar technology to AstraZeneca, and the immune response induced by these two vaccines is similar.
For that reason, the AstraZeneca vaccine may well retain good efficacy against severe disease.
Antibodies aren't the only thing that's important.
T-cells likely play a role in preventing severe disease, and there's evidence to suggest the T cell response is not substantially affected with regard to the South African variant.
https://twitter.com/RoyKishony/status/1358695273468469250
Janssen use a chemically stabilised form of the spike protein in the design of their vaccine; AZN did not use the technique. It might explain the apparent difference in efficacy.
(I think this is also true of the spike protein in the two mRNA vaccines form Pfizer and Moderna.)
Stabilizing the closed SARS-CoV-2 spike trimer
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7801441/
The trimeric spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2 is the primary focus of most vaccine design and development efforts. Due to intrinsic instability typical of class I fusion proteins, S tends to prematurely refold to the post-fusion conformation, compromising immunogenic properties and prefusion trimer yields. To support ongoing vaccine development efforts, we report the structure-based design of soluble S trimers with increased yields and stabilities, based on introduction of single point mutations and disulfide-bridges. We identify regions critical for stability: the heptad repeat region 1, the SD1 domain and position 614 in SD2. We combine a minimal selection of mostly interprotomeric mutations to create a stable S-closed variant with a 6.4-fold higher expression than the parental construct while no longer containing a heterologous trimerization domain. The cryo-EM structure reveals a correctly folded, predominantly closed pre-fusion conformation. Highly stable and well producing S protein and the increased understanding of S protein structure will support vaccine development and serological diagnostics....
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/