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Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think – politicalbetting.com
Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think – politicalbetting.com
Sisyphus was happy, reckoned Albert Camus. The Boundary Commissioners may have their own view on this: for the third time they are being asked to come up with new proposals. Their proposals for 2012 and 2018 both came to nothing. They are now beavering away on their proposals for 2024.
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Thanks for this, Alistair. Interesting piece.
I would be interested to see current membership figures for political parties. The latest numbers I have are nearly 2 years out of date.
Is that actually the case? My impression was that the areas relatively retained by Lab in the Red Wall were skewed towards Metropolitan areas. What is likely to happen in, for example, Liverpool, Manchester, Bradford, Leeds?
As it happens, Conservative gains in 2019 were strongly concentrated in areas which are either losing seats or seeing no gains in seat numbers in the boundary review. There are likely to be a lot of fretful first time Conservative MPs as a result.
No Alistair. It’s the Valleys and the west coast that take a pounding - areas where the Tories are weak. The way the changes fall as currently proposed, Plaid are cut in half, and Labour lose about a third of their MPs. The Tories lose a grand total of two.
Let’s just say this. Labour have just two seats left in Wales outside the triangle from Swansea to Merthyr to Newport. Llanelli (which is closely aligned to those areas) and Alyn and Deeside, which is the most marginal seat in Wales and is in any case one of the ones set to go. They are in fact the *third* party in all that area, behind the Tories and Plaid.
And yet, it is the Valleys that are suffering depopulation and get severely reduced in any rejig. The one area where Labour continue to be strong is the one where they lose out.
So Alistair’s argument may hold up well (probably does hold up well) in Northern England, but it can’t and shouldn’t be applied to Wales.
So that’s another several seats Starmer has to find from somewhere.
Or to put it another way, if Coulson got off...
Edit - that said, I wonder what’s more wounding for Alex Salmond - the fact he has been put on trial for his *ahem* activities, or the fact that everyone believes Sturgeon and not him.
What it might do is make some seats in the south and Midlands much tighter. If there’s a lot of flight to say, Leamington, which has direct fast trains to London, the Tories can kiss that seat goodbye for a generation (and I don’t mean a Scottish generation of two years, either).
There was some report a week or two ago that reckoned 700k people had left London in the past 12 months. Now a lot of those will be foreigners leaving the country, but there’s reports of family houses in suburbia and the countryside selling well in the past few months, so people are moving out of the Smoke.
The ONS and indeed its predecessor the OPCS tried to make 2001 and 2011 the last. Both times they were overruled, but I suspect they will have seen this as an excellent opportunity to have another go.
The Mirror had a report yesterday and now similar reports have appeared in several papers, eg The Times today reports:
"The BBC confirmed that 2.7 million over-75s had paid for their licence. An extra 750,000 applied for free licences available to anyone on pension credit, leaving a shortfall of 750,000 based on the 4.2 million over-75s who previously held free licences.
Some could be covered if other people in the household have a licence, if they have stopped watching the BBC or have died. The figure, reported by the Sunday Mirror, has been denied by the BBC..............
TV Licensing, on behalf of the BBC, said: “Around 80 per cent of over-75 households have transitioned to the new system, including those in receipt of pension credit eligible for a free licence funded by the BBC."
There's only one problem with all these reports - go to the latest BBC Accounts and guess what - there were actually 4,669,000 (then free) over 75s TVLs in force at 31/03/20, not 4.2m. (No journalist for any national newspaper is capable of looking this up!)
But anyway what it means is that in fact there are even more over 75s households yet to get a TVL.
If the figures above of 2.7m and 750k are correct - that's 3.45m out of 4.669m which would be 74%. The BBC says "around 80%" so maybe these numbers are understated a bit - "around 80%" might mean say 77%. If so that would likely mean approx 2.8m paying licences issued and 800k free licences issued - making 3.6m in total - leaving over 1m unlicenced.
And it's now over 6 months since free licences for over 75s ended.
So looks as if the BBC is facing a pretty significant uphill battle - I'm sure numbers will continue to inch up but they may struggle to get more than approx 3m over 75s to pay.
This is I think the latest statement, from 22nd January. https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/census2021andcoronavirus
When I went to uni back in 2001 one of the first things I did was get a TV licence (quite a performance to get the postcode out of Aber). But now? I wouldn’t bother. YouTube and Netflix would provide all I wanted far more cheaply and enforcement would be nearly impossible if I watched the odd show live on air.
Indeed, if I didn’t watch live sport I probably wouldn’t need a TV licence now. I can’t remember when I last watched BBC produced materials on iPlayer, which is the only other reason to have it.
(That is estimated, but not far off)
I think they may be making the wrong call, but it’s their call to make. The FMD comparison is asinine. That only affected 2% of the population.
Equally, there is a slight air of ‘the lady doth protest too much’ about that statement. I wonder if they did try to cancel and were overruled, again.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/02/07/pfizer-expects-cut-covid-19-vaccine-production-time-almost-50/4423251001
But the trend is set by local markets.
http://www.scotslawblog.com/defamation/not-every-lie-amounts-to-perjury-lessons-coulson-acquittal/
The number of under 75s TVLs fell by 280,000 between 31/03/19 and 31/03/20 (per BBC accounts).
It's likely numbers have continued to fall at a similar rate - indeed the rate of reduction may have accelerated given the problems the BBC has with enforcement caused by Covid.
The BBC will also not have been helped by the reported fall in the population due to Covid - some reports have suggested up to 750,000 may have left the UK, and of course there are now 112,000 Covid deaths (and the total number of excess deaths may be even higher).
Not sure if that has changed.
The decision there was that what Coulson may or may not have lied about wasn't relevant to the Sherridan trial - the question here then is if there were any lies relevant to the Salmond trial.
EG hypothetically you're being tried for murder, I lie under oath to say I saw you at the scene covered in blood. Reality is you were overseas at the time and I knew that. Jury acquits you. Surely I committed perjury?
If the BBC wants to be paid for it needs to be relevant. I pay for a TV Licence because I watch Sky live and if I want to watch live football I need to pay for the Licence Fee whether I watch the BBC or not. That is a mess.
Third party locks that do not need holes drilling are available if a student wishes from the shops.
TVs in rooms are quite an old-hat thing, since everyone has laptops, and usually high end internet which is a basic facility to have.
In the local city market that has been the practice for I guess nearly a decade amongst most high quality student lets.
"Almost 200 British academics are being investigated on suspicion of unwittingly helping the Chinese government build weapons of mass destruction, The Times can reveal.
They are suspected of violating strict export laws intended to prevent intellectual property in highly sensitive subjects being handed to hostile states.
The individuals could face a maximum of ten years in prison if found in breach of the Export Control Order 2008. A source told The Times that the government was preparing to send enforcement notices to up to 200 UK citizens working at more than a dozen British universities. The individuals are suspected of transferring world-leading research in advanced military technology such as aircraft, missile designs and cyberweapons to China." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hundreds-of-uk-academics-investigated-over-weapons-links-to-china-bpcks76bv
But IANAL, still less a Scottish lawyer. DavidL would know more.
They got Dom Sibley out.
In the highly unlikely scenario that there was evidence given by Sturgeon in an affidavit she would be a lot more exposed. Technically, that is evidence under oath and it is a criminal offence to lie in such an affidavit although I personally have never heard of anyone being prosecuted for it (other than false declarations of solvency which is a bit different). I just think its very unlikely that happened in a judicial review where an evidential hearing was never allowed.
Pointless review.
Still good news for Sharma. 300 wickets.
But I suspect he is wrong to underestimate the loss of seats in places like south Wales and in some of the cities where very safe Labour seats have been getting smaller and smaller and some will disappear altogether. It won't make SKS's job any easier but if the tide is with him that won't matter too much.
https://www.censusjobs.co.uk/
Of course, the census might be postponed or even cancelled but continued recruitment efforts suggest it has not been yet (even though recruitment has been privatised).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1043497/test-cricket-4th-innings-run-chase/
Edit - brilliant save there.
Insofar as the escape from London was mainly foreigners returning home after Brexit and encouraged by Covid-19, it will not affect the electorate or the boundary reviews.
Alistair.
Al-a-stair.
Ali-i-stair.
One of us spells our name incorrectly and the other is correct.
Also in general India haven’t been at their best. No balls, dropped catches, silly shots.
But that also means England need to try and ram the advantage home. They cannot assume India won’t raise their game, given how formidable a side they are and the very dangerous Jadeja still to come back. So to maximise their chances, they need to force the win here.
To take out the effects of 2019 (when the Tories did relatively well in Wales) is fair enough.
But that makes the effects worse for Labour.
In a typical General Election, Labour losses in Wales from the boundary review will be greater than computed on the 2019 results.
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"For example, the Conservatives are unlikely to keep two seats out of what is currently Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan, and may not keep either."
That really does depend on the details -- it is perfectly possible to make a safer Tory seat from the Vale of G and the easterly, more affluent parts of the Bridgend constituency as well.
If so, things that make you go "Hmmm....."
There certainly from afar seems to be an air of "he was acquited, like OJ Simpson was acquited" about Salmond. Whether he was guilty or innocent, his reputation is trash.
Could be major news.
But if Stokes found it tough...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/cricket/test-matches/india-v-england-betting-30233775
What a surprise.....
Yesterday, Miliband was attacking the government for not giving a pay rise to the public sector while tens of thousands jobs in the private sector are lost and businesses are ravaged, just the sectors that generate the taxes to contribute towards public sector wage increases
Superb stuff!!
Mr. Floater, aye, the unwitting irony is quite good.
F1: about a week or so until the car reveals get going. Not really my kind of thing, but at least it's not too long until testing and the first race.
Your second point is fairer.
Watching TV in the 2020s and watching the BBC are two very different things.
What’s worse is that half the time it’s the spinners overstepping. That is not a good sign.
Why not address the point I made about private sector job loses, 25,000 in retail this last fortnight alone
Lets just remind ourselves that Florida already a hot spot and the UK variant is increasingly prevalent.........
But we know you'll defend any old rubbish.