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How do you solve a solution like the Northern Ireland Protocol? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • 12.5 million first dose vaccinations
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    15, 845 cases and 373 deaths

    Good news, unless you are one of the 373. Should you not add the caveats?

    Trending down, nonetheless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    edited February 2021

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    Solution one. Have you been drinking?

    But so0lution two is a sell out for red wall voters (it would have been fine if Cameron had stayed on and secured that deal quickly- but things have moved on) and confirms Starmer hates the UK and the Union flag and loves the EU.
    Technically Starmer could accept all SM regulations for GB except free movement, provided he stuck to a points system rather than free movement I doubt the Red Wall would care.

    As Ireland is part of the CTA it still has free movement to and from GB anyway now so that would not change
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    The first idea here is an election result, not a solution.

    Then second essentially abolishes the Brexit deal wholesale. We would have to be closer aligned than Norway for this to work. This would have been an interesting proposal if moderates had come together in an EFTA style deal post 2016. They didn't. The bus has left.

    Anyway SM and CUs are basically things you are members of or not. 'More closely aligned' needs a bit of flesh on the bones to make sense.


    The first idea is a solution because if the Unionist parties combined get an outright majority at Stormont next year then they can impose a hard border within Ireland rather than the Irish Sea. Boris could then just say he was respecting devolution in action by removing the border in the Irish Sea.

    The second would see us accept more single market and customs union regulations yes but I expect that is what a PM Starmer would aim for anyway, after all he rejected even the May deal as too hard before reluctantly backing the Boris Deal after GE19 to avoid No Deal.
    A Unionist majority would impose a hard border?
    I take it they will be informing the voters after a majority is won?
    Because they sure as heck won't be campaigning on it.
    Well. Not successfully anyways.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    edited February 2021
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    The first idea here is an election result, not a solution.

    Then second essentially abolishes the Brexit deal wholesale. We would have to be closer aligned than Norway for this to work. This would have been an interesting proposal if moderates had come together in an EFTA style deal post 2016. They didn't. The bus has left.

    Anyway SM and CUs are basically things you are members of or not. 'More closely aligned' needs a bit of flesh on the bones to make sense.


    The first idea is a solution because if the Unionist parties combined get an outright majority at Stormont next year then they can impose a hard border within Ireland rather than the Irish Sea. Boris could then just say he was respecting devolution in action by removing the border in the Irish Sea.

    The second would see us accept more single market and customs union regulations yes but I expect that is what a PM Starmer would aim for anyway, after all he rejected even the May deal as too hard before reluctantly backing the Boris Deal after GE19 to avoid No Deal.
    A Unionist majority would impose a hard border?
    I take it they will be informing the voters after a majority is won?
    Because they sure as heck won't be campaigning on it.
    Well. Not successfully anyways.
    The vast majority of Unionist voters would prefer a hard border in Ireland to a border in the Irish Sea, so obviously they would campaign on that.

    The Nationalist parties meanwhile will campaign to keep the border in the Irish Sea and an open border in Ireland.

    The Alliance party will campaign to keep an open border in Ireland and to remove the border in the Irish Sea by pushing for the whole UK to align more closely to the EU
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    MaxPB said:

    On trade with India, I find it extremely unlikely that the UK will sign anything more than a cursory "deal" with some nice sounding platitudes for the future. India is a country singularly uninterested in trade deals.

    Somebody yesterday was trying to say they'd be as developed as Japan if we hadn't colonised them.
  • 15, 845 cases and 373 deaths

    Good news, unless you are one of the 373. Should you not add the caveats?

    Trending down, nonetheless.
    Of course
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    Solution one. Have you been drinking?

    But so0lution two is a sell out for red wall voters (it would have been fine if Cameron had stayed on and secured that deal quickly- but things have moved on) and confirms Starmer hates the UK and the Union flag and loves the EU.
    Technically Starmer could accept all SM regulations except free movement, provided he stuck to a points system rather than free movement I doubt the Red Wall would care
    ...and you think the EU will accept such cakeism?

    P.S. You are one of the very few loyal Tory posters (perhaps the only one) who makes a fine promotion of Starmer as the best next PM. I genuinely salute your practical realism.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    The first idea here is an election result, not a solution.

    Then second essentially abolishes the Brexit deal wholesale. We would have to be closer aligned than Norway for this to work. This would have been an interesting proposal if moderates had come together in an EFTA style deal post 2016. They didn't. The bus has left.

    Anyway SM and CUs are basically things you are members of or not. 'More closely aligned' needs a bit of flesh on the bones to make sense.


    The first idea is a solution because if the Unionist parties combined get an outright majority at Stormont next year then they can impose a hard border within Ireland rather than the Irish Sea. Boris could then just say he was respecting devolution in action by removing the border in the Irish Sea.

    The second would see us accept more single market and customs union regulations yes but I expect that is what a PM Starmer would aim for anyway, after all he rejected even the May deal as too hard before reluctantly backing the Boris Deal after GE19 to avoid No Deal.
    A Unionist majority would impose a hard border?
    I take it they will be informing the voters after a majority is won?
    Because they sure as heck won't be campaigning on it.
    Well. Not successfully anyways.
    The vast majority of Unionist voters would prefer a hard border in Ireland to a border in the Irish Sea, so obviously they would campaign on that
    A majority of Unionists, even a vast one, does not make a majority.
  • 12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    Correction - 12, 014, 288 first doses
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    DIY experts of PB. I was wondering if you could help me.

    Does anyone know what could have caused this mark appearing on the wall of my house? The house was built circa 3 years ago.

    It certainly feels like its caused by moisture as paint comes off when you touch it but nothing looks amiss outside on the brickwork.




    The wall cavity could be bridged by debris from initial construction fault or subsequently fallen, making a pathway for moisture through the wall.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    edited February 2021
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    The first idea here is an election result, not a solution.

    Then second essentially abolishes the Brexit deal wholesale. We would have to be closer aligned than Norway for this to work. This would have been an interesting proposal if moderates had come together in an EFTA style deal post 2016. They didn't. The bus has left.

    Anyway SM and CUs are basically things you are members of or not. 'More closely aligned' needs a bit of flesh on the bones to make sense.


    The first idea is a solution because if the Unionist parties combined get an outright majority at Stormont next year then they can impose a hard border within Ireland rather than the Irish Sea. Boris could then just say he was respecting devolution in action by removing the border in the Irish Sea.

    The second would see us accept more single market and customs union regulations yes but I expect that is what a PM Starmer would aim for anyway, after all he rejected even the May deal as too hard before reluctantly backing the Boris Deal after GE19 to avoid No Deal.
    A Unionist majority would impose a hard border?
    I take it they will be informing the voters after a majority is won?
    Because they sure as heck won't be campaigning on it.
    Well. Not successfully anyways.
    The vast majority of Unionist voters would prefer a hard border in Ireland to a border in the Irish Sea, so obviously they would campaign on that
    A majority of Unionists, even a vast one, does not make a majority.
    It does if they win a majority of MLAs at Stormont
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK local R

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    Solution one. Have you been drinking?

    But so0lution two is a sell out for red wall voters (it would have been fine if Cameron had stayed on and secured that deal quickly- but things have moved on) and confirms Starmer hates the UK and the Union flag and loves the EU.
    Technically Starmer could accept all SM regulations except free movement, provided he stuck to a points system rather than free movement I doubt the Red Wall would care
    ...and you think the EU will accept such cakeism?

    P.S. You are one of the very few loyal Tory posters (perhaps the only one) who makes a fine promotion of Starmer as the best next PM. I genuinely salute your practical realism.
    Provided the UK aligns more closely to its orbit yes, though it would still not be able to rejoin the EEA in full without free movement.

    I have long said Starmer is the best Labour leader since Blair, not that there is much competition!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    Correction - 12, 014, 288 first doses
    Presumably no figures from Wales or Scotland over the w/e?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    the damp proof course should be 150 mm above the outside ground level.
  • 12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    Correction - 12, 014, 288 first doses
    Presumably no figures from Wales or Scotland over the w/e?
    Not sure if that is UK wide to be honest
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    The first idea here is an election result, not a solution.

    Then second essentially abolishes the Brexit deal wholesale. We would have to be closer aligned than Norway for this to work. This would have been an interesting proposal if moderates had come together in an EFTA style deal post 2016. They didn't. The bus has left.

    Anyway SM and CUs are basically things you are members of or not. 'More closely aligned' needs a bit of flesh on the bones to make sense.


    The first idea is a solution because if the Unionist parties combined get an outright majority at Stormont next year then they can impose a hard border within Ireland rather than the Irish Sea. Boris could then just say he was respecting devolution in action by removing the border in the Irish Sea.

    The second would see us accept more single market and customs union regulations yes but I expect that is what a PM Starmer would aim for anyway, after all he rejected even the May deal as too hard before reluctantly backing the Boris Deal after GE19 to avoid No Deal.
    A Unionist majority would impose a hard border?
    I take it they will be informing the voters after a majority is won?
    Because they sure as heck won't be campaigning on it.
    Well. Not successfully anyways.
    The vast majority of Unionist voters would prefer a hard border in Ireland to a border in the Irish Sea, so obviously they would campaign on that.

    The Nationalist parties meanwhile will campaign to keep the border in the Irish Sea and an open border in Ireland.

    The Alliance party will campaign to keep an open border in Ireland and to remove the border in the Irish Sea by pushing for the whole UK to align more closely to the EU
    Wow. Talk about clear blue water between approaches to the Irish Sea border.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK R

    From case data

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Age related data

    image
    image
  • DIY experts of PB. I was wondering if you could help me.

    Does anyone know what could have caused this mark appearing on the wall of my house? The house was built circa 3 years ago.

    It certainly feels like its caused by moisture as paint comes off when you touch it but nothing looks amiss outside on the brickwork.




    Looks like my ceiling! Except mine is flat (in bottom-floor apartment).

    Appears to be water damage. It's coming from somewhere, could migrate a ways before it gets to your ceiling.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK Vaccinations

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    The first idea here is an election result, not a solution.

    Then second essentially abolishes the Brexit deal wholesale. We would have to be closer aligned than Norway for this to work. This would have been an interesting proposal if moderates had come together in an EFTA style deal post 2016. They didn't. The bus has left.

    Anyway SM and CUs are basically things you are members of or not. 'More closely aligned' needs a bit of flesh on the bones to make sense.


    The first idea is a solution because if the Unionist parties combined get an outright majority at Stormont next year then they can impose a hard border within Ireland rather than the Irish Sea. Boris could then just say he was respecting devolution in action by removing the border in the Irish Sea.

    The second would see us accept more single market and customs union regulations yes but I expect that is what a PM Starmer would aim for anyway, after all he rejected even the May deal as too hard before reluctantly backing the Boris Deal after GE19 to avoid No Deal.
    A Unionist majority would impose a hard border?
    I take it they will be informing the voters after a majority is won?
    Because they sure as heck won't be campaigning on it.
    Well. Not successfully anyways.
    The vast majority of Unionist voters would prefer a hard border in Ireland to a border in the Irish Sea, so obviously they would campaign on that.

    The Nationalist parties meanwhile will campaign to keep the border in the Irish Sea and an open border in Ireland.

    The Alliance party will campaign to keep an open border in Ireland and to remove the border in the Irish Sea by pushing for the whole UK to align more closely to the EU
    However, at the moment the sectarian balance at Stormont is 40 Unionists, 38 Nationalists, 10 Others. Hard to see that Unionists can (or should) get their ideal solution on the basis of those figures, or any plausible "next time" results. In any case, anything about the border would presumably get entangled in the cross-community rules.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    Correction - 12, 014, 288 first doses
    Presumably no figures from Wales or Scotland over the w/e?
    Not sure if that is UK wide to be honest
    A breakdown of yesterday's jab numbers by nation is provided on the coronavirus dashboard. Numbers have been reported by all four.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    Solution one. Have you been drinking?

    But so0lution two is a sell out for red wall voters (it would have been fine if Cameron had stayed on and secured that deal quickly- but things have moved on) and confirms Starmer hates the UK and the Union flag and loves the EU.
    Technically Starmer could accept all SM regulations except free movement, provided he stuck to a points system rather than free movement I doubt the Red Wall would care
    ...and you think the EU will accept such cakeism?

    P.S. You are one of the very few loyal Tory posters (perhaps the only one) who makes a fine promotion of Starmer as the best next PM. I genuinely salute your practical realism.
    Provided the UK aligns more closely to its orbit yes, though it would still not be able to rejoin the EEA in full without free movement.

    I have long said Starmer is the best Labour leader since Blair, not that there is much competition!
    When Darren Grimes becomes leader of the Conservative Party, I can see the Honourable Member for Epping Forest crossing the floor to Emily
    Benn's Labour Party.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    Why is the R number not falling?
  • 12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    AZN covered it extensively on Marr this morning, and did not predict a calamity and was very positive about vaccinations and the ability to adjust to mutations
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    The first idea here is an election result, not a solution.

    Then second essentially abolishes the Brexit deal wholesale. We would have to be closer aligned than Norway for this to work. This would have been an interesting proposal if moderates had come together in an EFTA style deal post 2016. They didn't. The bus has left.

    Anyway SM and CUs are basically things you are members of or not. 'More closely aligned' needs a bit of flesh on the bones to make sense.


    The first idea is a solution because if the Unionist parties combined get an outright majority at Stormont next year then they can impose a hard border within Ireland rather than the Irish Sea. Boris could then just say he was respecting devolution in action by removing the border in the Irish Sea.

    The second would see us accept more single market and customs union regulations yes but I expect that is what a PM Starmer would aim for anyway, after all he rejected even the May deal as too hard before reluctantly backing the Boris Deal after GE19 to avoid No Deal.
    A Unionist majority would impose a hard border?
    I take it they will be informing the voters after a majority is won?
    Because they sure as heck won't be campaigning on it.
    Well. Not successfully anyways.
    The vast majority of Unionist voters would prefer a hard border in Ireland to a border in the Irish Sea, so obviously they would campaign on that.

    The Nationalist parties meanwhile will campaign to keep the border in the Irish Sea and an open border in Ireland.

    The Alliance party will campaign to keep an open border in Ireland and to remove the border in the Irish Sea by pushing for the whole UK to align more closely to the EU
    However, at the moment the sectarian balance at Stormont is 40 Unionists, 38 Nationalists, 10 Others. Hard to see that Unionists can (or should) get their ideal solution on the basis of those figures, or any plausible "next time" results. In any case, anything about the border would presumably get entangled in the cross-community rules.
    It would likely require some Alliance voters to shift back to the UUP, after all the Alliance's only MP represents North Down which used to be a UUP seat.

    If there was a Unionist majority and the EU refused to amend the NI Protocol, Stormont could vote to remove it anyway, even if under the GFA there still needed to be cross community representation in the NI Executive.

    Boris would then remove it saying he was respecting the wishes of Stormont
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    HYUFD said:
    'Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, told Times Radio that he "can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again".

    "I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone," he added.

    Prof Spector also suggested that basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

    "I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily," he said.

    On a more positive note Prof Spector, who created the Zoe Covid Symptom Study, said the infection survey indicates that coronavirus rates are "generally much lower everywhere" in the country, with around one in 170 people infected on average.

    He suggested that reinstating the rule of six allowing people to meet outdoors should be "definitely encouraged" around the same time as primary schools begin to return.'

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    On trade with India, I find it extremely unlikely that the UK will sign anything more than a cursory "deal" with some nice sounding platitudes for the future. India is a country singularly uninterested in trade deals.

    Somebody yesterday was trying to say they'd be as developed as Japan if we hadn't colonised them.
    Wouldn't be at all surprised. I think that there were some things which we brought them which were good, railways, but we did less than nothing for local industries.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Dirty Liverpool. That really ought to have been red for Thiago.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Looking at Monday-Sunday numbers for the last three weeks (first vaccinations)

    2,516,227
    2,624,008
    3,036,959

    I think you are being misled by the very high number reported last Sunday

    image
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    edited February 2021

    DIY experts of PB. I was wondering if you could help me.

    Does anyone know what could have caused this mark appearing on the wall of my house? The house was built circa 3 years ago.

    It certainly feels like its caused by moisture as paint comes off when you touch it but nothing looks amiss outside on the brickwork.




    Looks like my ceiling! Except mine is flat (in bottom-floor apartment).

    Appears to be water damage. It's coming from somewhere, could migrate a ways before it gets to your ceiling.
    Looks like a crack along the top edge of the chevron, where water running down the face is getting under the render.

    Is it an old patch?

    Suggest a visit to buildhub.org.uk, and ask the question there. There are people there with more experience of this than me.

    It is a non-commercial voluntary site, owned by a group of the members.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    Why is the R number not falling?

    - The vaccination effect hasn't kicked in yet
    - The current R is what you get with the combination of the current restrictions and the current variants of COVID.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    AZN covered it extensively on Marr this morning, and did not predict a calamity and was very positive about vaccinations and the ability to adjust to mutations
    The problem isn't the ability to engineer the vaccines, the problem is what happens whilst we are waiting for the vaccines to be engineered.

    Should a resistant form (and I'm talking here about something that is much better at evading existing vaccines than the SA Plague, for it is by no means out of the question that such a thing should arise,) enter the country and be allowed to spread, then we end up with a disease spike and lockdown for goodness knows how long whilst everybody is jabbed all over again.

    Re: the previous thread, if you want one scenario in which Labour could win next time then it's after another whole year of being kept suffering under tight house arrest because the Government couldn't be arsed to seal the borders.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
  • tlg86 said:

    Dirty Liverpool. That really ought to have been red for Thiago.

    It was a harsh yellow card.

    There's definitely a Paul Scholes feeling about Thiago.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are 2 solutions to the NI Protocol.

    First, as Vernon Bogdanor suggested yesterday, the Unionists could win a majority at next year's Assembly elections combining the MLAs of the DUP, UUP and TUV.

    Alernatively as TSE suggests Starmer could become PM in 2024 and shift to a softer Brexit deal more closely aligned to the single market and customs union which would largely remove the border in the Irish Sea

    Solution one. Have you been drinking?

    But so0lution two is a sell out for red wall voters (it would have been fine if Cameron had stayed on and secured that deal quickly- but things have moved on) and confirms Starmer hates the UK and the Union flag and loves the EU.
    Technically Starmer could accept all SM regulations except free movement, provided he stuck to a points system rather than free movement I doubt the Red Wall would care
    ...and you think the EU will accept such cakeism?

    P.S. You are one of the very few loyal Tory posters (perhaps the only one) who makes a fine promotion of Starmer as the best next PM. I genuinely salute your practical realism.
    Provided the UK aligns more closely to its orbit yes, though it would still not be able to rejoin the EEA in full without free movement.

    I have long said Starmer is the best Labour leader since Blair, not that there is much competition!
    If does highlight the pickle BoJo has talked himself into. Though to be fair, the rise of TUV shows the danger of leaving any space on the hard-line end.

    By insisting on maximum autonomy, the government has asked for maximum friction at the borders. The question (which I'm not remotely qualified to answer) is whether there are things where it's obvious that Sovereign Autonomy is clearly more trouble than it's worth, and giving up the illusion that the UK will want to do things differently could lubricate borders meaningfully?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    We are going to be stuck in lockdown for months whilst the Plague is driven down to low levels, so as to let us all out and to minimize the prospect of that happening here - all of which will be for nothing if SuperCovid is simply exported from elsewhere instead.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    Much less likely here if we manage to get the infection rate down to negligible levels.


  • Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    Certainly the external damp course should be above any outside ground cover by at least 150mm (6 inches)
    Yep and this is not just a recommendation, it is part of building regs. The builder is liable for this if he put down the paving and chippings.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    We are going to be stuck in lockdown for months whilst the Plague is driven down to low levels, so as to let us all out and to minimize the prospect of that happening here - all of which will be for nothing if SuperCovid is simply exported from elsewhere instead.
    Just making the point that "malign mutation" does not equate to "from foreign climes".
    I think there is this misapprehension in places.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462

    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    We are going to be stuck in lockdown for months whilst the Plague is driven down to low levels, so as to let us all out and to minimize the prospect of that happening here - all of which will be for nothing if SuperCovid is simply exported from elsewhere instead.
    There are some new, much faster tests on the way. Will make mass testing much more reliable and therefore safer.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    Certainly the external damp course should be above any outside ground cover by at least 150mm (6 inches)
    Yep and this is not just a recommendation, it is part of building regs. The builder is liable for this if he put down the paving and chippings.
    Has someone already been messing arouind in that corner? S ome of the mortar looks fresh around one brick, and I'm not sure that the mortar isn't cracking away from the brick one row or so above (difficult to tell).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    DIY experts of PB. I was wondering if you could help me.

    Does anyone know what could have caused this mark appearing on the wall of my house? The house was built circa 3 years ago.

    It certainly feels like its caused by moisture as paint comes off when you touch it but nothing looks amiss outside on the brickwork.



    When it happened in mine, it was a leaking gutter.
    For me the mortar was shot and the lead flashing light.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Looking at Monday-Sunday numbers for the last three weeks (first vaccinations)

    2,516,227
    2,624,008
    3,036,959

    I think you are being misled by the very high number reported last Sunday

    image
    No, I'm aware that last Saturday was exceptional. All I'm doing is following the computed seven-day average on the dashboard, which is levelling off at around 430k. Results for the past four days have been steadily rising above that but I imagine that the Sunday figure (reported tomorrow, of course,) will drop back off again, as per the pattern seen in the previous two weeks.
  • alednamalednam Posts: 186

    Why is the R number not falling?

    But it is falling, even if slowly. And even though it isn't falling equally across all regions, there's no region in which it's increased in the last 5 weeks.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Carnyx said:



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    Certainly the external damp course should be above any outside ground cover by at least 150mm (6 inches)
    Yep and this is not just a recommendation, it is part of building regs. The builder is liable for this if he put down the paving and chippings.
    Has someone already been messing arouind in that corner? S ome of the mortar looks fresh around one brick, and I'm not sure that the mortar isn't cracking away from the brick one row or so above (difficult to tell).
    Not been touched since it was built in Summer 18
  • kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    We are going to be stuck in lockdown for months whilst the Plague is driven down to low levels, so as to let us all out and to minimize the prospect of that happening here - all of which will be for nothing if SuperCovid is simply exported from elsewhere instead.
    There are some new, much faster tests on the way. Will make mass testing much more reliable and therefore safer.
    Yes.
    We did 550,000 jabs on Saturday.
    And I see the BBC did the worst headline connotation they could on the SA virus. Quite a surprise.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    Carnyx said:



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    Certainly the external damp course should be above any outside ground cover by at least 150mm (6 inches)
    Yep and this is not just a recommendation, it is part of building regs. The builder is liable for this if he put down the paving and chippings.
    Has someone already been messing arouind in that corner? S ome of the mortar looks fresh around one brick, and I'm not sure that the mortar isn't cracking away from the brick one row or so above (difficult to tell).
    Agreed; some of that mortar looks significantly more recent.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,376
    edited February 2021

    Here it is.

    As part of the Good Friday Agreement, an explicit provision for holding a Northern Ireland border poll was made in UK law. The Northern Ireland Act 1998 states that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.

    It is not clear exactly what would satisfy this requirement. The Constitution Unit suggests that a consistent majority in opinion polls, a Catholic majority in a census, a nationalist majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, or a vote by a majority in the Assembly could all be considered evidence of majority support for a united Ireland. However, the Secretary of State must ultimately decide whether the condition has been met.


    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification

    I always thought it would be something like votes/seats at the Assembly/Westminster, didn't really think about the census being a trigger.

    Hey Unionists, the census is something the Catholic Church and the Pope are behind, boycott the census.

    The big surprise for me has been the growth in support for unaligned parties.

    Comparing the EU elections for 2019, with 1999, Unionist and Nationalist vote shares are both down by 9%, Alliance and the Greens up by 17%. If that's repeated in May, then both Unionists and Nationalists will lose seats to Alliance.

    I doubt if TUV will come close to 10%, as they're a one man band, and a lot of hardline Unionists will want to stop Sinn Fein from topping the poll.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Why is the R number not falling?

    If it is below 1, case numbers are falling, which is what matters
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    We are going to be stuck in lockdown for months whilst the Plague is driven down to low levels, so as to let us all out and to minimize the prospect of that happening here - all of which will be for nothing if SuperCovid is simply exported from elsewhere instead.
    There are some new, much faster tests on the way. Will make mass testing much more reliable and therefore safer.
    I am not sure it's wise to place too much faith in testing, when one is dealing with a combination of a hyper-infectious virus and a very leaky and unreliable system of tracing and especially of isolation. Tracing all the contacts of people who've caught a new imported variant is ultimately for nothing if the disease is spreading so fast that you can't keep up with it, or if you fail to trace all the contacts, or if you tell all the contacts to isolate but one or more of them decides to go to work, down the supermarket or to one of these wretched clandestine parties or wedding receptions anyway.

    By far the best thing to do is to keep it out in the first place.
  • sealo0sealo0 Posts: 48
    sarissa said:



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    the damp proof course should be 150 mm above the outside ground level.
    Where does that Downpipe go?
  • kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    We are going to be stuck in lockdown for months whilst the Plague is driven down to low levels, so as to let us all out and to minimize the prospect of that happening here - all of which will be for nothing if SuperCovid is simply exported from elsewhere instead.
    There are some new, much faster tests on the way. Will make mass testing much more reliable and therefore safer.
    I am not sure it's wise to place too much faith in testing, when one is dealing with a combination of a hyper-infectious virus and a very leaky and unreliable system of tracing and especially of isolation. Tracing all the contacts of people who've caught a new imported variant is ultimately for nothing if the disease is spreading so fast that you can't keep up with it, or if you fail to trace all the contacts, or if you tell all the contacts to isolate but one or more of them decides to go to work, down the supermarket or to one of these wretched clandestine parties or wedding receptions anyway.

    By far the best thing to do is to keep it out in the first place.
    To be fair in an inter connected world that is not possible
  • On the contrary, many newspapers of that ilk took great delight in pointing out deficiencies. It obviously pleases their readership. I would also mention that Handjob did mention it a few times.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    Carnyx said:



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    Certainly the external damp course should be above any outside ground cover by at least 150mm (6 inches)
    Yep and this is not just a recommendation, it is part of building regs. The builder is liable for this if he put down the paving and chippings.
    Has someone already been messing arouind in that corner? S ome of the mortar looks fresh around one brick, and I'm not sure that the mortar isn't cracking away from the brick one row or so above (difficult to tell).
    Agreed; some of that mortar looks significantly more recent.
    It also looks like there is no mortar on the vertical joint between the half corner brick and the first brick on the perpendicular wall that you have pinpointed has new mortar.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    edited February 2021
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    Much less likely here if we manage to get the infection rate down to negligible levels.
    You'd have thought so. There was an interesting piece on last night's thread, though, about how suppressing the most vaccine susceptible strains potentially creates space for tougher ones to get busy. From Pesto, thus given the bum's rush by most, but it made a kind of sense to me. Any event, drive it down here, tight borders, major push on the global rollout, better quicker testing, more ruthless isolation rules, nimble vaccine tweaking, I think the way ahead is clear to most now.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DIY experts of PB. I was wondering if you could help me.

    Does anyone know what could have caused this mark appearing on the wall of my house? The house was built circa 3 years ago.

    It certainly feels like its caused by moisture as paint comes off when you touch it but nothing looks amiss outside on the brickwork.



    When it happened in mine, it was a leaking gutter.
    For me the mortar was shot and the lead flashing light.
    Pivoting, is that inside or outside?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    We are going to be stuck in lockdown for months whilst the Plague is driven down to low levels, so as to let us all out and to minimize the prospect of that happening here - all of which will be for nothing if SuperCovid is simply exported from elsewhere instead.
    There are some new, much faster tests on the way. Will make mass testing much more reliable and therefore safer.
    I am not sure it's wise to place too much faith in testing, when one is dealing with a combination of a hyper-infectious virus and a very leaky and unreliable system of tracing and especially of isolation. Tracing all the contacts of people who've caught a new imported variant is ultimately for nothing if the disease is spreading so fast that you can't keep up with it, or if you fail to trace all the contacts, or if you tell all the contacts to isolate but one or more of them decides to go to work, down the supermarket or to one of these wretched clandestine parties or wedding receptions anyway.

    By far the best thing to do is to keep it out in the first place.
    It depends how harsh you are prepared to be.

    Checking that phone numbers were not fake during sign up for testing was considered "exclusionary".....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    This is turning into DIY SOS.
    With Covid information during the ad breaks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    Irish muppets! What a terrible kick....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    'Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, told Times Radio that he "can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again".

    "I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone," he added.

    Prof Spector also suggested that basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

    "I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily," he said.

    On a more positive note Prof Spector, who created the Zoe Covid Symptom Study, said the infection survey indicates that coronavirus rates are "generally much lower everywhere" in the country, with around one in 170 people infected on average.

    He suggested that reinstating the rule of six allowing people to meet outdoors should be "definitely encouraged" around the same time as primary schools begin to return.'
    If things are really going to be that bad then it's going to be a matter of making choices, all of which have a balance of cost and benefit. He's flat wrong to suggest that social distancing has no cost to start with, and nobody wants to be lumbered with horrible gags until 2030.

    Basically, under those circumstances, we can either have mass international travel and all the extra bullshit that comes along with it (together with the threat of imported mutant strains,) or we can be New Zealand, throw mass international travel on the bonfire and dispense with everything else.

    I suppose it really boils down to how desperate people are for their ten nights in Shagaluf each August.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    dixiedean said:

    This is turning into DIY SOS.
    With Covid information during the ad breaks.

    What do you want? Pineapple on your pizza??
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    Much less likely here if we manage to get the infection rate down to negligible levels.
    You'd have thought so. There was an interesting piece on last night's thread, though, about how suppressing the most vaccine susceptible strains potentially creates space for tougher ones to get busy. From Pesto, thus given the bum's rush by most, but it made a kind of sense to me. Any event, drive it down here, tight borders, major push on the global rollout, better quicker testing, more ruthless isolation rules, nimble vaccine tweaking, I think the way ahead is clear to most now.
    I read that and he doesn't have any understanding of what he was talking about. Mutations are random, the virus isn't sentient and it can't consciously pick an evolutionary path to become more deadly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    edited February 2021

    Carnyx said:



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    Certainly the external damp course should be above any outside ground cover by at least 150mm (6 inches)
    Yep and this is not just a recommendation, it is part of building regs. The builder is liable for this if he put down the paving and chippings.
    Has someone already been messing arouind in that corner? S ome of the mortar looks fresh around one brick, and I'm not sure that the mortar isn't cracking away from the brick one row or so above (difficult to tell).
    Not been touched since it was built in Summer 18
    BTW - when you redecorate maybe give the patch area an undercoat of "stopping". Used to be an alcoholic soluition of shellac which acted as a barrier to damp, stains, etc. Now you can get this stuff (in much smaller pots too!). Used lots of it on the knots in my pinewood shed before proper undercoat and paint.

    https://www.screwfix.com/p/zinsser-b-i-n-shellac-based-primer-sealer-1ltr/29661?tc=JC6&ds_kid=92700052136101425&ds_rl=1243321&ds_rl=1241687&ds_rl=1245250&ds_rl=1245250&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIwqqHzaHY7gIVi5ntCh0eHgXMEAQYASABEgJUSvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Irish muppets! What a terrible kick....

    What a complete plum! Wales will take that.

    Scotland for the title? 😅
  • That has to be the worst penalty I've seen since Chris Waddle at Italia 90.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240

    Carnyx said:



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    Certainly the external damp course should be above any outside ground cover by at least 150mm (6 inches)
    Yep and this is not just a recommendation, it is part of building regs. The builder is liable for this if he put down the paving and chippings.
    Has someone already been messing arouind in that corner? S ome of the mortar looks fresh around one brick, and I'm not sure that the mortar isn't cracking away from the brick one row or so above (difficult to tell).
    Agreed; some of that mortar looks significantly more recent.

    Carnyx said:



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    Certainly the external damp course should be above any outside ground cover by at least 150mm (6 inches)
    Yep and this is not just a recommendation, it is part of building regs. The builder is liable for this if he put down the paving and chippings.
    Has someone already been messing arouind in that corner? S ome of the mortar looks fresh around one brick, and I'm not sure that the mortar isn't cracking away from the brick one row or so above (difficult to tell).
    Agreed; some of that mortar looks significantly more recent.
    I'd take slight care interpreting the bricks. They look like one designed to look slightly "aged".

    But that mortar does look 'reworked'.

    What is the white stuff on the ground - is that snow, or something off the wall.

    Some of it resembles what is called "efflorescence", which is salts coming out of the brick - which normally means dampness, but I have never seen it on brand new bricks.

    If you have a thermal camera, I would take a few pics to see if that patch of wall is colder (do the whole house to look for cold bridges whilst you are at it, as it is winter).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    'Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, told Times Radio that he "can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again".

    "I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone," he added.

    Prof Spector also suggested that basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

    "I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily," he said.

    On a more positive note Prof Spector, who created the Zoe Covid Symptom Study, said the infection survey indicates that coronavirus rates are "generally much lower everywhere" in the country, with around one in 170 people infected on average.

    He suggested that reinstating the rule of six allowing people to meet outdoors should be "definitely encouraged" around the same time as primary schools begin to return.'
    If things are really going to be that bad then it's going to be a matter of making choices, all of which have a balance of cost and benefit. He's flat wrong to suggest that social distancing has no cost to start with, and nobody wants to be lumbered with horrible gags until 2030.

    Basically, under those circumstances, we can either have mass international travel and all the extra bullshit that comes along with it (together with the threat of imported mutant strains,) or we can be New Zealand, throw mass international travel on the bonfire and dispense with everything else.

    I suppose it really boils down to how desperate people are for their ten nights in Shagaluf each August.
    No. How desperate Mr Johnson is to be loved by those people (and their votes).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    That has to be the worst penalty I've seen since Chris Waddle at Italia 90.

    Sadly, I think Arsenal own that.
  • HYUFD said:
    This is a fairly crazy prediction imo. Thankfully he is not in charge.
  • dixiedean said:

    This is turning into DIY SOS.
    With Covid information during the ad breaks.

    It is an amazing part of PB and in a good way
  • Irish muppets! What a terrible kick....

    What a complete plum! Wales will take that.

    Scotland for the title? 😅
    Scotland haven't won the Six Nations ever.

    Their last title came in the last millennium and no grand slams since before I was a teenager.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    Much less likely here if we manage to get the infection rate down to negligible levels.
    You'd have thought so. There was an interesting piece on last night's thread, though, about how suppressing the most vaccine susceptible strains potentially creates space for tougher ones to get busy. From Pesto, thus given the bum's rush by most, but it made a kind of sense to me. Any event, drive it down here, tight borders, major push on the global rollout, better quicker testing, more ruthless isolation rules, nimble vaccine tweaking, I think the way ahead is clear to most now.
    I read that and he doesn't have any understanding of what he was talking about. Mutations are random, the virus isn't sentient and it can't consciously pick an evolutionary path to become more deadly.
    Ok good. Although I didn't read it quite like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    She's right, he crossed a line, even though it would be easy to move on and pretend it doesn't matter because he's out of office, but as ever it comes down to whether McConnell and co see any personal advantage to convicting. If there were more old codgers likely to be retiring and this not caring what happens, maybe there'd be more of a shot.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    edited February 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:



    Further investigation. Looks like the soil and stones were right up to the damp proof course in that corner. Ive swept them away a little with my foot.

    Worth contacting the builder or wait and see once I’ve dug down a little?

    Cheers guys. This is much appreciated.

    Certainly the external damp course should be above any outside ground cover by at least 150mm (6 inches)
    Yep and this is not just a recommendation, it is part of building regs. The builder is liable for this if he put down the paving and chippings.
    Has someone already been messing arouind in that corner? S ome of the mortar looks fresh around one brick, and I'm not sure that the mortar isn't cracking away from the brick one row or so above (difficult to tell).
    Not been touched since it was built in Summer 18
    BTW - when you redecorate maybe give the patch area an undercoat of "stopping". Used to be an alcoholic soluition of shellac which acted as a barrier to damp, stains, etc. Now you can get this stuff (in much smaller pots too!). Used lots of it on the knots in my pinewood shed before proper undercoat and paint.

    https://www.screwfix.com/p/zinsser-b-i-n-shellac-based-primer-sealer-1ltr/29661?tc=JC6&ds_kid=92700052136101425&ds_rl=1243321&ds_rl=1241687&ds_rl=1245250&ds_rl=1245250&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIwqqHzaHY7gIVi5ntCh0eHgXMEAQYASABEgJUSvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
    I would suggest that would be a bad idea until after you know the cause.

    It might be OK as a last chance saloon if you have established that the damp is coming from the outside.

    Otherwise you would be keeping the damp in, which would just hide and perpetuate the problem.

    Fix the cause, then let it dry, is the way imo.

    (Perhaps we have crossed wires, and the shellac comment is wrt the patch in the wall.)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    Does anyone have a sensible explanation for why the government has done more on border controls?
  • tlg86 said:

    That has to be the worst penalty I've seen since Chris Waddle at Italia 90.

    Sadly, I think Arsenal own that.
    Really?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    We are going to be stuck in lockdown for months whilst the Plague is driven down to low levels, so as to let us all out and to minimize the prospect of that happening here - all of which will be for nothing if SuperCovid is simply exported from elsewhere instead.
    There are some new, much faster tests on the way. Will make mass testing much more reliable and therefore safer.
    I am not sure it's wise to place too much faith in testing, when one is dealing with a combination of a hyper-infectious virus and a very leaky and unreliable system of tracing and especially of isolation. Tracing all the contacts of people who've caught a new imported variant is ultimately for nothing if the disease is spreading so fast that you can't keep up with it, or if you fail to trace all the contacts, or if you tell all the contacts to isolate but one or more of them decides to go to work, down the supermarket or to one of these wretched clandestine parties or wedding receptions anyway.

    By far the best thing to do is to keep it out in the first place.
    To be fair in an inter connected world that is not possible
    It's entirely possible, and we know that because New Zealand has been doing it for the best part of a year.

    What it all boils down to is what you're prepared to give up and what you gain in return.

    If you gain "no lockdowns" when you would otherwise have them then it is worth giving up almost anything else.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    I think a thread header about how to solve the Northern Ireland protocol is of great interest and long overdue. Sadly this wasn't that thread.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    'Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, told Times Radio that he "can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again".

    "I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone," he added.

    Prof Spector also suggested that basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

    "I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily," he said.

    On a more positive note Prof Spector, who created the Zoe Covid Symptom Study, said the infection survey indicates that coronavirus rates are "generally much lower everywhere" in the country, with around one in 170 people infected on average.

    He suggested that reinstating the rule of six allowing people to meet outdoors should be "definitely encouraged" around the same time as primary schools begin to return.'

    If, and it is a big if, other countries are allowing large gatherings, then the political pressure here will make it very likely that we will too.
  • kinabalu said:

    12.5 million first dose vaccinations

    *Bad news: growth in vaccination numbers appears to have stalled
    *Good news: at least it doesn't appear to be going into reverse, though even if it does then, so long as it doesn't drop below about 400k per day, then all the nine priority cohorts should've had jab one by the end of March

    That's when the real problems start, of course, because if supply hasn't sped up by then the rest of the population will be waiting months whilst the effort goes into second doses. So we'll have to keep our fingers crossed that things improve.

    Beyond that, the over-riding concern is still that imported mutant Plague screws up everything, a potential calamity which the Government appears still to be willing to do nothing meaningful to prevent.
    Imported or domestically evolved. Both are possible.
    We are going to be stuck in lockdown for months whilst the Plague is driven down to low levels, so as to let us all out and to minimize the prospect of that happening here - all of which will be for nothing if SuperCovid is simply exported from elsewhere instead.
    There are some new, much faster tests on the way. Will make mass testing much more reliable and therefore safer.
    I am not sure it's wise to place too much faith in testing, when one is dealing with a combination of a hyper-infectious virus and a very leaky and unreliable system of tracing and especially of isolation. Tracing all the contacts of people who've caught a new imported variant is ultimately for nothing if the disease is spreading so fast that you can't keep up with it, or if you fail to trace all the contacts, or if you tell all the contacts to isolate but one or more of them decides to go to work, down the supermarket or to one of these wretched clandestine parties or wedding receptions anyway.

    By far the best thing to do is to keep it out in the first place.
    To be fair in an inter connected world that is not possible
    It's entirely possible, and we know that because New Zealand has been doing it for the best part of a year.

    What it all boils down to is what you're prepared to give up and what you gain in return.

    If you gain "no lockdowns" when you would otherwise have them then it is worth giving up almost anything else.
    It is not the least bit comparable

    We are not New Zealand, a remote two island nation, 2,500 miles away from their nearest neighbour, Australia

    Furthermore, it has only 5 million population and scattered across the two islands
  • Gundogan makes up his miss
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    The DUP are a potential confidence and supply partner to BOTH Labour and the Tories now Corbyn is gone. They're interested in pork, not personalities. Starmer is going to keep needing those flags.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited February 2021

    tlg86 said:

    That has to be the worst penalty I've seen since Chris Waddle at Italia 90.

    Sadly, I think Arsenal own that.
    Really?
    I’m not posting it because I’m still angry about what they did.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    That has to be the worst penalty I've seen since Chris Waddle at Italia 90.

    Sadly, I think Arsenal own that.
    Really?
    I’m not posting it because I’m still angry about what they/I> did.
    Oh the Henry/Pires penalty stunt?
This discussion has been closed.