And that is with significantly higher testing and before vaccination has had more than a minor effect.
Yep, lockdowns work. It is ending them that is problematic.
Contrarian will not be happy about that last part.
I am not advocating endless lockdown, but clearly ending them is tricky. There is the question of when, and how much.
I think most transmission arises from household mixing, and inevitably as life resumes normality with schools, shops and the night time economy, rates will spike up.
And that's why restrictions need to be released steadily, so they combine with (a) a rising proportion of the population being vaccinated, and (b) the warmer weather.
I admire your optimism, gravitate to good news, and pray you are right.
But surely these are the unknown/uncontrollable variables delaying opening up?
1. Impact of doing over fifties first jab at same time as over seventies second plus any unexpected lumpiness in supply of vaccine 2. Question marks over impact of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates 3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun
Is that better or worse than when Owen Paterson accused badgers of moving the goalposts?
But seriously- Rishi needs to wind it in here. Two things are pretty clear;
One is that this is nearly over. By the end of the month, we'll be in the high single thousands of infections a day, that feeds through to tens of deaths, and with spring coming and sufficient vaccination, that's it. It's not hard to hold numbers down over the summer, and the key thing is to be Covid-proof come September. The only way this goes wrong is if we unlock too quickly.
Second is that the reason we've had a rubbish autumn and winter is because we let the numbers get out of hand in September/October, and then didn't do enough subsequently to get control back.
The chancellor either doesn't understand that (in which case he's dimmer than I think he is) or he does, but is fluttering his eyelashes at the right wing (in which case he's playing a pretty unpleasant cynical game). Neither look is becoming. Is it (and maybe Govey's antics today) a reaction to Matt H's glory over the last week or so?
Possibly he's firing a warning shot to the medical advisors that they shouldn't start coming up with schemes for zero-covid level suppression.
Rishi is reminding us that behind that sweet smile is a right wing loon.
I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.
The risk was not taken casually, but on the balance of scientific advice. Not taking it would undoubtedly have cost a significant number of lives.
FWIW, the general scientific consensus appears to be that mutations to the virus most commonly arise during lengthy serious illness in the sickest patients. And the evidence we have so far is that the single vaccination prevents most serious illness.
Indeed, everything I have read and the expert I have spoken to said the same. Twice. They specifically said that mutations occur randomly all the time and every so often the virus gets a lucky mutation to evade an immune response. The best way to curb mutations is to reduce the number of opportunities for mutation and the only way to reduce the number of opportunities is to get the infection rate down and to reduce the number of severe COVID infections. The latter are key to viral mutations as the body will make multiple attempts to rid itself of the virus and the virus has opportunities to mutate within the host body. A single AZ dose eliminates severe COVID 22 days after being jabbed. Our strategy means double the number of people will be significantly less liable to hosting an immunity evading viral mutation.
The Pfizer vaccine will be no different, the vector is ultimately immaterial as the antibodies are essentially the same and the T/B-cell immunity will be the same as well.
Ultimately, these critics are saying that a mega pharma company like Johnson & Johnson are clueless for pursuing a single dose vaccine that has 66% efficacy, they are saying that J&J are inviting mutations. These people are wrong and in the next few weeks I think we'll see them all fall silent just as the critics of the UK deciding against the EU vaccine scheme have fallen silent.
“Airport bosses say they have "no idea" how the Scottish government's tougher quarantine restrictions on travellers will work.” Some of us think that there is little evidence that they have ever had an idea how quarantine works.
As covid deaths in Delhi are nearly 11k that would suggest a 0.1% IFR.
Which would be about half that of western cities.
Delhi I would guess would have a younger age demographic and less obesity but would have more air pollution and worse health care.
There is also a theory, floating around, that India was lucky enough to be hit by a "milder" variant. No idea if it is true
That I find absolutely impossible to believe. It’s not as if they closed the border and the virus is immune to mutation there. How many people flew into India from the UK before they restricted travel in November?
It is also to be born in mind that india is judged lucky purely on number of deaths. As many have pointed out we dont know the long term effects of covid and anecdotally we are told many suffer lifetime from the after effects we just dont have stats
Hello blobfish
Also I am still confident Boris will send some vaccine to EU country before Saint Geralds (5 April).
If you feel obliged to call me a dipsh*t we can keep these posts and see what happens if you like.
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Every 20 year old here is going to have the saffer super booster before France has the first dose given to their over 70s. Well probably not but it sort of looks like that.
As has been mentioned a number of times before, the problem with France might not be so much that they're slow - although that will hurt enough - but that a sufficient percentage of the population refuses the vaccine so as to render any efforts to properly squash the disease useless. Basically if only half of them will take it then they could both act as a reservoir from which novel forms of mutant Covid could periodically emerge, and be in and out of lockdown throughout this year and into next. Not only terrible news for France itself but also for us and the rest of the neighbours.
In terms of the delivery timetable, Valneva press releases suggest H2 2021 for initial 60 million, another 40 million at an unspecified time in 2022, and that the UK Government also retains options to order another 90 million doses for delivery between 2023 and 2025. I'm assuming that all of the production will be coming out of the Livingston plant so it'll be independent of any further collywobbles on the continent.
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Every 20 year old here is going to have the saffer super booster before France has the first dose given to their over 70s. Well probably not but it sort of looks like that.
I mean WTAF is going on in France?? It’s very sad to see. The entire vaccine procurement and delivery programme is a complete disgrace.
Per 100k people, Germany is actually doing even worse than France.
I have original suggestion to bring to this forum. how poor lateral flow test are in accuracy, could this be improved by weeing on the test rather than putting it up your nose?
'Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.'
His replacement '“Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”
Ollie has eaten a deep fried pizza and knows nearly one verse of I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles), he's got this.
'Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.'
His replacement '“Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”
Ollie has eaten a deep fried pizza and knows nearly one verse of I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles), he's got this.
That’s actually more convincing than the official line HYUFD regurgitates.
As covid deaths in Delhi are nearly 11k that would suggest a 0.1% IFR.
Which would be about half that of western cities.
Delhi I would guess would have a younger age demographic and less obesity but would have more air pollution and worse health care.
A younger age demographic will help massively with deaths, 6.2% of india is over 65. It's 18.7% here. Also only 3.9% obesity.
That is probably enough to do it.
It is our success at keeping so many people alive into their eighties and nineties etc that has allowed there to be a reservoir of people vulnerable to this bastard bug.
For countries whose elderly population are already dead - they're not going to be affected. The virus may sometimes seem like a Walking Dead style plague but it doesn't actually rip through cemetaries.
'Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.'
His replacement '“Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”
Ollie has eaten a deep fried pizza and knows nearly one verse of I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles), he's got this.
That’s actually more convincing than the official line HYUFD regurgitates.
It actually sounds like the basis of winning the vote for the unionists. Deep fry all the food, get The Proclaimers on side = winning in Scotland.
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Every 20 year old here is going to have the saffer super booster before France has the first dose given to their over 70s. Well probably not but it sort of looks like that.
I mean WTAF is going on in France?? It’s very sad to see. The entire vaccine procurement and delivery programme is a complete disgrace.
I don't disagree in principle, but I'm not sure what about France's recent history has resulted in your surprise at this state of affairs?
'Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.'
His replacement '“Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”
Ollie has eaten a deep fried pizza and knows nearly one verse of I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles), he's got this.
That’s actually more convincing than the official line HYUFD regurgitates.
It actually sounds like the basis of winning the vote for the unionists. Deep fry all the food, get The Proclaimers on side = winning in Scotland.
All the food's already deep fried and Craig and Charlie are lifelong indy supporters, back to the drawing board.
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Every 20 year old here is going to have the saffer super booster before France has the first dose given to their over 70s. Well probably not but it sort of looks like that.
I mean WTAF is going on in France?? It’s very sad to see. The entire vaccine procurement and delivery programme is a complete disgrace.
Per 100k people, Germany is actually doing even worse than France.
Not actually true, I believe, although these things are all relative of course. Germany's just above the EU average and France a bit below it, but they're both a decent stretch behind Malta on a per capita basis, let alone the UK or US.
'Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.'
His replacement '“Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”
It sounds like he was a Cummings mini me, and the lads have noticed how much more smoothly things go without Cummingses.
'Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.'
His replacement '“Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”
Ollie has eaten a deep fried pizza and knows nearly one verse of I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles), he's got this.
That’s actually more convincing than the official line HYUFD regurgitates.
It actually sounds like the basis of winning the vote for the unionists. Deep fry all the food, get The Proclaimers on side = winning in Scotland.
All the food's already deep fried and Craig and Charlie are lifelong indy supporters, back to the drawing board.
For what it's worth, yours truly just got back from getting my 1st dose of Pfizer COVID vaccine.
Was relatively painless, had an appointment, got to the vaccination center (at UW Medical Center, Montlake, Seattle) half an hour early, which was good, because took about that long waiting in line. Everything was pretty well organized, had my (simple) questions answered.
Just got email so I can schedule 2nd dose (in approx 4-6 weeks, depending on availability). And just tried to make appointment, but no luck, will check again later tonight( it's approaching 3.30pm here).
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Every 20 year old here is going to have the saffer super booster before France has the first dose given to their over 70s. Well probably not but it sort of looks like that.
I mean WTAF is going on in France?? It’s very sad to see. The entire vaccine procurement and delivery programme is a complete disgrace.
Per 100k people, Germany is actually doing even worse than France.
Not actually true, I believe, although these things are all relative of course. Germany's just above the EU average and France a bit below it, but they're both a decent stretch behind Malta on a per capita basis, let alone the UK or US.
Sorry I did mean to preface with "recently". Since Jan 20th, France have been doing better than Germany. And by better, I mean marginally less bad than total crap.
I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.
The risk was not taken casually, but on the balance of scientific advice. Not taking it would undoubtedly have cost a significant number of lives.
FWIW, the general scientific consensus appears to be that mutations to the virus most commonly arise during lengthy serious illness in the sickest patients. And the evidence we have so far is that the single vaccination prevents most serious illness.
Indeed, everything I have read and the expert I have spoken to said the same. Twice. They specifically said that mutations occur randomly all the time and every so often the virus gets a lucky mutation to evade an immune response. The best way to curb mutations is to reduce the number of opportunities for mutation and the only way to reduce the number of opportunities is to get the infection rate down and to reduce the number of severe COVID infections. The latter are key to viral mutations as the body will make multiple attempts to rid itself of the virus and the virus has opportunities to mutate within the host body. A single AZ dose eliminates severe COVID 22 days after being jabbed. Our strategy means double the number of people will be significantly less liable to hosting an immunity evading viral mutation.
The Pfizer vaccine will be no different, the vector is ultimately immaterial as the antibodies are essentially the same and the T/B-cell immunity will be the same as well.
Ultimately, these critics are saying that a mega pharma company like Johnson & Johnson are clueless for pursuing a single dose vaccine that has 66% efficacy, they are saying that J&J are inviting mutations. These people are wrong and in the next few weeks I think we'll see them all fall silent just as the critics of the UK deciding against the EU vaccine scheme have fallen silent.
It's intuitive that a half vaccinated person might seem a good host for viral mutations as the virus has "something to work against". But it's wrong as you explain
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Every 20 year old here is going to have the saffer super booster before France has the first dose given to their over 70s. Well probably not but it sort of looks like that.
I mean WTAF is going on in France?? It’s very sad to see. The entire vaccine procurement and delivery programme is a complete disgrace.
Per 100k people, Germany is actually doing even worse than France.
Not actually true, I believe, although these things are all relative of course. Germany's just above the EU average and France a bit below it, but they're both a decent stretch behind Malta on a per capita basis, let alone the UK or US.
Legally, yes. But the PM had made very clear that win for the Yes side would result in independence, so the referendum was not advisory in practice. Bar a few cranks everyone on both sides regarded the referendum as valid and expected the result to be implemented, with campaigning and voting done on that basis.
And in my view that perception is critical to the legitimacy of any future indyref.
As it stands the Scottish Government cannot hold an indyref that has that legitimacy. Without sanction from Westminster unionists will boycott a referendum, which would immediately render it not much more than an expensive nationalist festival. More practically it is likely most, if not all, local councils would refuse to make their staff or buildings available.
The Scottish Government will no doubt have taken legal advice on this and knows full well that it’s a no go, which is why they haven’t attempted it.
The hard truth for them is that another indyref, like all referendums of any importance, is worthless unless both sides are taking part. Which would not be the case with an unsanctioned indyref.
Of course, they could go the legal route and try to have a court, no doubt ultimately the UK Supreme Court, rule that they DO have the power to hold an indyref. But this has not so far been attempted and Scot Gov has tried very hard to prevent private cases on just this matter from proceeding, possibly indicating they believe all a ruling would do is firmly close off that avenue.
I don’t really see any good options for the SNP to get their referendum. Boris is not going to sanction one and the damage caused by the pandemic has given him a plausible reason for not doing so.
Their best chance is possibly to keep up the anti-UK rhetoric and hope support for independence climbs high enough (say 70%+ in polls) that it becomes clear support is so overwhelming that setting a date for a UDI would not result in a unionist revolt. I wouldn't put my money on that scenario actually happening any time soon, however.
'Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.'
His replacement '“Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”
I keep on having to remind you that Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart!
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Every 20 year old here is going to have the saffer super booster before France has the first dose given to their over 70s. Well probably not but it sort of looks like that.
I mean WTAF is going on in France?? It’s very sad to see. The entire vaccine procurement and delivery programme is a complete disgrace.
Per 100k people, Germany is actually doing even worse than France.
Not actually true, I believe, although these things are all relative of course. Germany's just above the EU average and France a bit below it, but they're both a decent stretch behind Malta on a per capita basis, let alone the UK or US.
For what it's worth, yours truly just got back from getting my 1st dose of Pfizer COVID vaccine.
Was relatively painless, had an appointment, got to the vaccination center (at UW Medical Center, Montlake, Seattle) half an hour early, which was good, because took about that long waiting in line. Everything was pretty well organized, had my (simple) questions answered.
Just got email so I can schedule 2nd dose (in approx 4-6 weeks, depending on availability). And just tried to make appointment, but no luck, will check again later tonight( it's approaching 3.30pm here).
All in all, so far so good.
Addendum - Just made appointment for early March for Pfizer #2
'Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.'
His replacement '“Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”
I keep on having to remind you that Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart!
For what it's worth, yours truly just got back from getting my 1st dose of Pfizer COVID vaccine.
Was relatively painless, had an appointment, got to the vaccination center (at UW Medical Center, Montlake, Seattle) half an hour early, which was good, because took about that long waiting in line. Everything was pretty well organized, had my (simple) questions answered.
Just got email so I can schedule 2nd dose (in approx 4-6 weeks, depending on availability). And just tried to make appointment, but no luck, will check again later tonight( it's approaching 3.30pm here).
All in all, so far so good.
Addendum - Just made appointment for early March for Pfizer #2
Good news! Are they operating a priority filter in Seattle or is it just open to any resident to book a jab?
The German chancellor conceded on Tuesday night that it “rankled” that others were vaccinating faster, but said the EU’s slower but collective strategy had been the right one. “All in all, I don’t think anything has gone wrong,” Merkel said.
France’s president also said, in an unexpected TV appearance on Tuesday, that progress “may seem slow” compared with countries that had “made other bets”. But he added: “I defend the strategy we have adopted with Germany, with the EU.”
I see an old university contemporary of mine and active Tory member has defected to Reform UK, though he was on the libertarian wing and very anti lockdown
For what it's worth, yours truly just got back from getting my 1st dose of Pfizer COVID vaccine.
Was relatively painless, had an appointment, got to the vaccination center (at UW Medical Center, Montlake, Seattle) half an hour early, which was good, because took about that long waiting in line. Everything was pretty well organized, had my (simple) questions answered.
Just got email so I can schedule 2nd dose (in approx 4-6 weeks, depending on availability). And just tried to make appointment, but no luck, will check again later tonight( it's approaching 3.30pm here).
All in all, so far so good.
Addendum - Just made appointment for early March for Pfizer #2
Good news! Are they operating a priority filter in Seattle or is it just open to any resident to book a jab?
Priority, with exceptions.
For example, I qualified for an appointment because I'm in tier 1-b which includes anyone 65 or older (1a = health care & other very essential workers).
However, there have been opportunities (rather fleeting) for people to just show up at the right place at the right time for a jab. As when a refrigerator went kaput, and they they gave out doses just to keep from wasting them.
Also note that one local provider, who shall NOT remain nameless (Providence = Catholic) decided it would be a good idea to offer special, preferential vac appointments to their major donors. And naturally - and rightly - got outed by one of the invitees, who refused AND notified the Seattle Times!
I see an old university contemporary of mine and active Tory member has defected to Reform UK, though he was on the libertarian wing and very anti lockdown
Interesting to see Tory + ReformUK on 46% combined in a poll today.
I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.
The risk was not taken casually, but on the balance of scientific advice. Not taking it would undoubtedly have cost a significant number of lives.
FWIW, the general scientific consensus appears to be that mutations to the virus most commonly arise during lengthy serious illness in the sickest patients. And the evidence we have so far is that the single vaccination prevents most serious illness.
Indeed, everything I have read and the expert I have spoken to said the same. Twice. They specifically said that mutations occur randomly all the time and every so often the virus gets a lucky mutation to evade an immune response. The best way to curb mutations is to reduce the number of opportunities for mutation and the only way to reduce the number of opportunities is to get the infection rate down and to reduce the number of severe COVID infections. The latter are key to viral mutations as the body will make multiple attempts to rid itself of the virus and the virus has opportunities to mutate within the host body. A single AZ dose eliminates severe COVID 22 days after being jabbed. Our strategy means double the number of people will be significantly less liable to hosting an immunity evading viral mutation.
The Pfizer vaccine will be no different, the vector is ultimately immaterial as the antibodies are essentially the same and the T/B-cell immunity will be the same as well.
Ultimately, these critics are saying that a mega pharma company like Johnson & Johnson are clueless for pursuing a single dose vaccine that has 66% efficacy, they are saying that J&J are inviting mutations. These people are wrong and in the next few weeks I think we'll see them all fall silent just as the critics of the UK deciding against the EU vaccine scheme have fallen silent.
It's intuitive that a half vaccinated person might seem a good host for viral mutations as the virus has "something to work against". But it's wrong as you explain
Yes, it feels the same as a half completed course of antibiotics but the expert I spoke to very specifically said that it isn't the same because the mechanism of antibiotics and vaccines are completely different. The more legitimate comparison according to them was convalescent plasma which they think should not be used under any circumstances to treat COVID as it can lead to a mutation. Their view is that even if that plasma can save an individual life the risk of the treatment resulting an antibody resistant mutation is so high that it is irresponsible to the rest of the world. They have advised their own government not to use the treatment and also advised the WHO to ask for a blanket ban on its use to slow down the mutation rate and ensure vaccine efficacy isn't diluted in the immediate future.
It was actually one of the examples of why they thought doctors aren't worth listening to because doctors are subject to ethical considerations that scientists aren't.
I see an old university contemporary of mine and active Tory member has defected to Reform UK, though he was on the libertarian wing and very anti lockdown
Which some of us pointed out when the reports saying the first dose wasn't very effective appeared, and also when people quoted to silly 52% figure. Those figures were obviously daft because they included the first couple of weeks when you wouldn't expect the vaccine to be effective.
Still, very good news to have it confirmed by a full analysis.
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Brits are alone among the four nations in thinking that making the vaccine mandatory is a good idea. More than 60 percent thought that approach was acceptable.
In contrast, three-quarters of French respondents and more than 60 percent of Germans thought requiring people to get vaccinated would be unacceptable, as did 57 percent of Americans.
Which some of us pointed out when the reports saying the first dose wasn't very effective appeared, and also when people quoted to silly 52% figure. Those figures were obviously daft because they included the first couple of weeks when you wouldn't expect the vaccine to be effective.
Still, very good news to have it confirmed by a full analysis.
Massive news, effectively solves the 12 week puzzle for Pfizer. We're on the right track all ways vaccine wise here.
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Terrible situation in Portugal...sounds like EU scheme has failed again, as Germany sending beds and ventilators, when EU was supposed to have this all sorted.
I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.
On thread, well, I guess I keep a red passport when I renew in 2029. Salmond is a liability of course, and it is not a given that separation happens, especially not with the same economic illiteracy of a "sterling" currency that the SNP seems determined to inflict on us, yet TBH, unless England turns against the Tories, it is hard to see the Union continuing at all.
The problem is not the powers of Holyrood, it is the powers of Westminster and Whitehall. So, when we start to talk about those problems, then maybe I´ll believe in a common future. The problem is changing London, not Edinburgh.
Not sure where you get your information from. The UK is following expert advice, not Tory politicians.
All you need to stay super fit is HIIT. High intensity interval training. Extreme exercise for 30 secs, then rest 30 secs. Then do it again, in different ways, over 30 minutes.
Proven to be the best cardiovascular exercise available. Also burns a shagload of calories.
And all you need is 3m of space, a yoga mat, and water. No equipment. It’s incredible.
After lockdown I will not retain my gym membership. This is better. Also, once you’ve learned the moves, you can switch off her banal commentary and watch your favourite TV as you work out
And afterwards you get an INTENSE endorphine high. Often I start spontaneously singing
You do look like a total dick as you jump around, but hey
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Useless fact: finally managed to order an exercise bike.
Why not get a real bike? Exercise is something best done outside whatever the weather
I do have a real bike but the roads near where I live are full of lorries and there are no cycle paths. It always feels a bit dangerous to cycle on them. Also the roads are flooded at the moment.
A French start-up received an order from the UK government for 40 million doses of its vaccine yesterday – with the UK to now be given priority access to the vaccine over France and the rest of the European Union.
The vaccine is expected to be in the UK by June this year but may not be available in France until 2022.
President and Chief Business Officer of biotech company Valneva, Franck Grimaud, has estimated that the first vaccines will be delivered to the UK as soon as medical trials are complete – possibly as early as June 2021.
But vaccines are only likely to be available to the EU around the beginning of 2022, even though the company is based in Saint-Herblain, Pays de la Loire, west France.
...
The regional council president of the Pays de la Loire region has blamed the industry ministry for a missed opportunity to provide the vaccine to local people.
In a statement, President Christelle Morançais said: “It is vital that the state proves it has much more agility and reactivity when it comes to supporting and defending our companies at the forefront of fighting the virus.”
"France has missed the chance of 'its' own Covid vaccine."
"I have a terrible feeling of waste and of incomprehension in the face of this French and European failure," she added.
Every 20 year old here is going to have the saffer super booster before France has the first dose given to their over 70s. Well probably not but it sort of looks like that.
I mean WTAF is going on in France?? It’s very sad to see. The entire vaccine procurement and delivery programme is a complete disgrace.
I don't disagree in principle, but I'm not sure what about France's recent history has resulted in your surprise at this state of affairs?
There's a theory that Macron is fizzing partly because all his top pharma company CEOs are leading foreign pharma companies, which have developed successful vaccines.
At present it is 2 out of 2. Unless I have missed some.
Useless fact: finally managed to order an exercise bike.
Why not get a real bike? Exercise is something best done outside whatever the weather
I do have a real bike but the roads near where I live are full of lorries and there are no cycle paths. It always feels a bit dangerous to cycle on them. Also the roads are flooded at the moment.
Comments
Why would they bother doing that if the plan was to say "we don't care how you vote, you're are prisoners now so suck it up"
But surely these are the unknown/uncontrollable variables delaying opening up?
1. Impact of doing over fifties first jab at same time as over seventies second plus any unexpected lumpiness in supply of vaccine
2. Question marks over impact of variants and speed of detecting them on infection rates
3. Human behaviour in jumping the gun
Goodnight all.
The Pfizer vaccine will be no different, the vector is ultimately immaterial as the antibodies are essentially the same and the T/B-cell immunity will be the same as well.
Ultimately, these critics are saying that a mega pharma company like Johnson & Johnson are clueless for pursuing a single dose vaccine that has 66% efficacy, they are saying that J&J are inviting mutations. These people are wrong and in the next few weeks I think we'll see them all fall silent just as the critics of the UK deciding against the EU vaccine scheme have fallen silent.
https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1357094040546779138?s=20
Also I am still confident Boris will send some vaccine to EU country before Saint Geralds (5 April).
If you feel obliged to call me a dipsh*t we can keep these posts and see what happens if you like.
In terms of the delivery timetable, Valneva press releases suggest H2 2021 for initial 60 million, another 40 million at an unspecified time in 2022, and that the UK Government also retains options to order another 90 million doses for delivery between 2023 and 2025. I'm assuming that all of the production will be coming out of the Livingston plant so it'll be independent of any further collywobbles on the continent.
Be very different to the norm and kids seeing it years from now would spot it and ask about it, because it would look so different.
It is our success at keeping so many people alive into their eighties and nineties etc that has allowed there to be a reservoir of people vulnerable to this bastard bug.
For countries whose elderly population are already dead - they're not going to be affected. The virus may sometimes seem like a Walking Dead style plague but it doesn't actually rip through cemetaries.
https://twitter.com/SamBrockNBC/status/1357047400548950023
Was relatively painless, had an appointment, got to the vaccination center (at UW Medical Center, Montlake, Seattle) half an hour early, which was good, because took about that long waiting in line. Everything was pretty well organized, had my (simple) questions answered.
Just got email so I can schedule 2nd dose (in approx 4-6 weeks, depending on availability). And just tried to make appointment, but no luck, will check again later tonight( it's approaching 3.30pm here).
All in all, so far so good.
But it's wrong as you explain
Bruce Springsteen covered FGTH's Born to Run and Jerry and the Pacemakers covered FGTH's Ferry Across the Mersey IIRC
And in my view that perception is critical to the legitimacy of any future indyref.
As it stands the Scottish Government cannot hold an indyref that has that legitimacy. Without sanction from Westminster unionists will boycott a referendum, which would immediately render it not much more than an expensive nationalist festival. More practically it is likely most, if not all, local councils would refuse to make their staff or buildings available.
The Scottish Government will no doubt have taken legal advice on this and knows full well that it’s a no go, which is why they haven’t attempted it.
The hard truth for them is that another indyref, like all referendums of any importance, is worthless unless both sides are taking part. Which would not be the case with an unsanctioned indyref.
Of course, they could go the legal route and try to have a court, no doubt ultimately the UK Supreme Court, rule that they DO have the power to hold an indyref. But this has not so far been attempted and Scot Gov has tried very hard to prevent private cases on just this matter from proceeding, possibly indicating they believe all a ruling would do is firmly close off that avenue.
I don’t really see any good options for the SNP to get their referendum. Boris is not going to sanction one and the damage caused by the pandemic has given him a plausible reason for not doing so.
Their best chance is possibly to keep up the anti-UK rhetoric and hope support for independence climbs high enough (say 70%+ in polls) that it becomes clear support is so overwhelming that setting a date for a UDI would not result in a unionist revolt. I wouldn't put my money on that scenario actually happening any time soon, however.
So not before 2029 then!
Seriously though, if the UEA eggheads have done their sums correctly, that is fantastic news.
France’s president also said, in an unexpected TV appearance on Tuesday, that progress “may seem slow” compared with countries that had “made other bets”. But he added: “I defend the strategy we have adopted with Germany, with the EU.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/eu-leaders-begin-feel-heat-slow-covid-vaccine-rollout
Primary schools can go back 8 March. Secondary schools should wait til after Easter.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/03/labour-red-wall-voters-patriotism-keir-starmer
https://twitter.com/CassidyWtv/status/1357077167885189126?s=19
I'd recommend reading the thread.
For example, I qualified for an appointment because I'm in tier 1-b which includes anyone 65 or older (1a = health care & other very essential workers).
However, there have been opportunities (rather fleeting) for people to just show up at the right place at the right time for a jab. As when a refrigerator went kaput, and they they gave out doses just to keep from wasting them.
Also note that one local provider, who shall NOT remain nameless (Providence = Catholic) decided it would be a good idea to offer special, preferential vac appointments to their major donors. And naturally - and rightly - got outed by one of the invitees, who refused AND notified the Seattle Times!
https://twitter.com/CassidyWtv/status/1357078008117538817
https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1357073122445336576?s=21
It was actually one of the examples of why they thought doctors aren't worth listening to because doctors are subject to ethical considerations that scientists aren't.
Though only after they've checked their colour charts, asked him politely to put his AR15 down and then doing a few fist bumps.
Still, very good news to have it confirmed by a full analysis.
The price for our stash? Calais...
In contrast, three-quarters of French respondents and more than 60 percent of Germans thought requiring people to get vaccinated would be unacceptable, as did 57 percent of Americans.
https://www.politico.eu/article/government-coronavirus-response-germany-us-poll-pew-research-center/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55902317
Terrible situation in Portugal...sounds like EU scheme has failed again, as Germany sending beds and ventilators, when EU was supposed to have this all sorted.
All you need to stay super fit is HIIT. High intensity interval training. Extreme exercise for 30 secs, then rest 30 secs. Then do it again, in different ways, over 30 minutes.
Proven to be the best cardiovascular exercise available. Also burns a shagload of calories.
And all you need is 3m of space, a yoga mat, and water. No equipment. It’s incredible.
Here’s one
https://youtu.be/CR4X4XwlA_c
After lockdown I will not retain my gym membership. This is better. Also, once you’ve learned the moves, you can switch off her banal commentary and watch your favourite TV as you work out
And afterwards you get an INTENSE endorphine high. Often I start spontaneously singing
You do look like a total dick as you jump around, but hey
The trial will combine the AstraZeneca/Oxford and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines"
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/uk-government-test-mixing-covid-vaccines-trial/story?id=75668099
At present it is 2 out of 2. Unless I have missed some.
I do, but not on some days in Jan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9nonCqesLI
https://twitter.com/pmojl2/status/1357080522053349376