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With just three months to go before the Scottish elections a ratings boost for Sturgeon and the SNP

24

Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Paywalled. What did he have a moan about with Mr J, please?
    Mr Lewis, known in Downing Street as “Sonic”, is said by colleagues to have wanted “a clean slate” and to build a new team. A Vote Leave veteran, he is seen as having strong campaigning credentials although he is not known for any particular expertise in Scottish politics. He threatened to resign over the departure of Mr Johnson’s former senior adviser Dominic Cummings in November, but was persuaded by the prime minister to stay in Number 10.


    “Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”

    The future of the UK has become a central challenge for Mr Johnson, after opinion polls have suggested sustained support for Scottish independence. Mr Lewis’s role will be central to Number 10’s efforts to counter the Scottish National Party.

    According to officials with knowledge of the dispute, Mr Graham was unhappy with both his role and Number 10’s strategy for the union. “There was a lack of faith in letting him do what he needed to do. A lot of his efforts were frustrated by other people in the building,” one said.

    One Scottish Tory said: “Luke was the only Scottish person in there, it’s a big shame he’s gone and speaks to their total lack of a strategy on how to deal with the SNP.”

    Mr Graham will now move to Scotland to assist the Scottish Tory party’s campaign for May’s Holyrood elections.

    Another Whitehall official said: “Luke Graham has improved the focus of the government on delivering for Scotland and all parts of the UK and has helped ensure communications focused on demonstrating the practical value of the union to people in all parts of the country.”

    But others in Number 10 put the blame on Mr Graham for his exit. “Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.

    The problem with this Union unit is TOO MANY BLOODY JOCKS!
    They've had some kind of clearance? Seems counterproductive.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021

    twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1357052407906238467?s=19

    5...4...3...2....1.... Justin incoming to tell us it really is quite a good poll for Labour because in 1973 there was a similar situation and....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Cicero said:

    I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.

    On thread, well, I guess I keep a red passport when I renew in 2029. Salmond is a liability of course, and it is not a given that separation happens, especially not with the same economic illiteracy of a "sterling" currency that the SNP seems determined to inflict on us, yet TBH, unless England turns against the Tories, it is hard to see the Union continuing at all.

    The problem is not the powers of Holyrood, it is the powers of Westminster and Whitehall. So, when we start to talk about those problems, then maybe I´ll believe in a common future. The problem is changing London, not Edinburgh.

    The decision is being taken against the advice? Citation please.
    Well, there's the BMJ on Pfizer

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/20/revisiting-the-uks-strategy-for-delaying-the-second-dose-of-the-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/


    HMG seems to have got it right, AND followed the science, with one dose ofOxfordAZ - tho the age thing is still a concern, and now Switzerland have said they won't approve it, which adds to the doubts. The Swiss have no agenda against the UK/AZ

    I am much less convinced HMG got it right with Pfizer




    Yes, but it wasn't against the advice the government received from its scientists. It was a gamble, and not what Pfizer recommended, but the implication of the post was that Tory politicians were being reckless in a gamble - indeed, that was given as a reason why they should not be in office - when in fact it was a calculated risk taken with the advice of its scientific advisers, with pretty clear reasoning behind it. That is not the same thing at all.

    A different government might have made a different call, though I see no evidence of that from what other parties are saying, but there's no reason to believe the advice given to government would have been different.
    I agree. I'm just saying there was plenty of expert science on both sides of the argument - about delaying the 2nd dose. The government took a calculated risk in the middle of a grave crisis, and went for one dose and a delay.

    We shall soon see if that risk has paid off as well as their vaccine procurement.
    Largescale second doses for Pfizer came to an end about 10th January.

    So over three weeks ago.

    If we're going to hear "got infected because didn't receive second Pfizer dose" stories then they're going to happen very soon.

    I'm surprised there haven't been some already.
    We discussed this yesterday. There are some anecdata

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Paywalled. What did he have a moan about with Mr J, please?
    Mr Lewis, known in Downing Street as “Sonic”, is said by colleagues to have wanted “a clean slate” and to build a new team. A Vote Leave veteran, he is seen as having strong campaigning credentials although he is not known for any particular expertise in Scottish politics. He threatened to resign over the departure of Mr Johnson’s former senior adviser Dominic Cummings in November, but was persuaded by the prime minister to stay in Number 10.


    “Oliver is good at this stuff — he knows this can’t just be about brute economics,” said one colleague. “It’s about passion, identity and about promoting the idea that you can be proud to be Scottish and British.”

    The future of the UK has become a central challenge for Mr Johnson, after opinion polls have suggested sustained support for Scottish independence. Mr Lewis’s role will be central to Number 10’s efforts to counter the Scottish National Party.

    According to officials with knowledge of the dispute, Mr Graham was unhappy with both his role and Number 10’s strategy for the union. “There was a lack of faith in letting him do what he needed to do. A lot of his efforts were frustrated by other people in the building,” one said.

    One Scottish Tory said: “Luke was the only Scottish person in there, it’s a big shame he’s gone and speaks to their total lack of a strategy on how to deal with the SNP.”

    Mr Graham will now move to Scotland to assist the Scottish Tory party’s campaign for May’s Holyrood elections.

    Another Whitehall official said: “Luke Graham has improved the focus of the government on delivering for Scotland and all parts of the UK and has helped ensure communications focused on demonstrating the practical value of the union to people in all parts of the country.”

    But others in Number 10 put the blame on Mr Graham for his exit. “Luke had gradually pissed off more and more people. He didn’t endear himself to other spads [special advisers], ministers or civil servants. No one was weeping to see him go,” one government official said.

    The problem with this Union unit is TOO MANY BLOODY JOCKS!
    This is obviously NOT GOOD at all; an eminently mockable situation - but it's not enough to demonstrate 'the practical value of the Union'. It's not a bad thing to do, but it's not enough - we all know that. Hopefully 'Sonic' builds a strong team (of Scottish people) and we see some passion for the Union and for Scotland's place in it coming through in UK Government communications.
  • You have to wonder if Ed Davey has missed his chance to make any sort of impact (not saying it’s his fault during a pandemic - I’m sure that in normal times he’d be making hay on Brexit)?
  • You have to wonder if Ed Davey has missed his chance to make any sort of impact (not saying it’s his fault during a pandemic - I’m sure that in normal times he’d be making hay on Brexit)?
    The Lib Dems get virtually zero media coverage. With COVID, it is all Boris, Hancock, Sunak, then Starmer, then Piers Moron....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited February 2021

    Be interesting to know what info the UK is giving out. I think my parents got some sort of leaflet, but no idea if it refers to time after jab, they didn't seem especially clued up on how long before any real immunity kicks in.

    I can tell you what my husband received because he had his first jab today (hallelujah!)

    Two leaflets - a very boring looking black and white thing that resembles the kind of flyer that one finds neatly folded up inside any packet of tablets, and a more user-friendly looking leaflet with two friendly looking people of more mature years smiling on the front.

    I scanned the boring looking leaflet and noticed that it contained an instruction to make sure you get your second jab, but I couldn't be arsed to go through the whole thing properly. The colourful leaflet with the older people only says you should plan to attend a second appointment between 3 and 12 weeks after the first, that it's important to have two doses of the same vaccine, and to keep the record card that you get given with the first vaccine safe (presumably so that the second vaccinator can tell what you've had without needing to resort to searching records.)

    Separately to the leaflet, of course, patients will also be getting information directly at the vaccination centre - husband was told that his second appointment would be in 12 weeks' time and he would be contacted again to arrange it nearer to that time.*

    The colourful leaflet also reminds people that it may take a week or two to build some protection, but vaccines are in any event never completely effective so people should continue to take precautions to avoid infection. It also has another reminder at the end to keep doing the whole hands face space thing.

    *EDIT: Husband got his jab at the local GP; my Dad was invited to go to a mass vaccination centre instead, and was therefore invited to book the date for his second appointment at the same time as the first.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Cicero said:

    I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.

    On thread, well, I guess I keep a red passport when I renew in 2029. Salmond is a liability of course, and it is not a given that separation happens, especially not with the same economic illiteracy of a "sterling" currency that the SNP seems determined to inflict on us, yet TBH, unless England turns against the Tories, it is hard to see the Union continuing at all.

    The problem is not the powers of Holyrood, it is the powers of Westminster and Whitehall. So, when we start to talk about those problems, then maybe I´ll believe in a common future. The problem is changing London, not Edinburgh.

    The decision is being taken against the advice? Citation please.
    Well, there's the BMJ on Pfizer

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/20/revisiting-the-uks-strategy-for-delaying-the-second-dose-of-the-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/


    HMG seems to have got it right, AND followed the science, with one dose ofOxfordAZ - tho the age thing is still a concern, and now Switzerland have said they won't approve it, which adds to the doubts. The Swiss have no agenda against the UK/AZ

    I am much less convinced HMG got it right with Pfizer




    Yes, but it wasn't against the advice the government received from its scientists. It was a gamble, and not what Pfizer recommended, but the implication of the post was that Tory politicians were being reckless in a gamble - indeed, that was given as a reason why they should not be in office - when in fact it was a calculated risk taken with the advice of its scientific advisers, with pretty clear reasoning behind it. That is not the same thing at all.

    A different government might have made a different call, though I see no evidence of that from what other parties are saying, but there's no reason to believe the advice given to government would have been different.
    I agree. I'm just saying there was plenty of expert science on both sides of the argument - about delaying the 2nd dose. The government took a calculated risk in the middle of a grave crisis, and went for one dose and a delay.

    We shall soon see if that risk has paid off as well as their vaccine procurement.
    Largescale second doses for Pfizer came to an end about 10th January.

    So over three weeks ago.

    If we're going to hear "got infected because didn't receive second Pfizer dose" stories then they're going to happen very soon.

    I'm surprised there haven't been some already.
    We discussed this yesterday. There are some anecdata

    The ones you pasted certainly weren't.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    The thought just struck me that Trump's legal teams, from Guiliani on down, have been so bad perhaps they are really just Democratic Party moles:

    https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-lawyers-mocked-misspelling-united-states-impeachment-trial-filing-1566447
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    You have to wonder if Ed Davey has missed his chance to make any sort of impact (not saying it’s his fault during a pandemic - I’m sure that in normal times he’d be making hay on Brexit)?
    The Lib Dems get virtually zero media coverage. With COVID, it is all Boris, Hancock, Sunak, then Starmer, then Piers Moron....
    The other day a friend of mine, who is EXTREMELY well informed on politics, the kind of guy who can give you the exact turnout in the 1997 GE, or name the Shadow Defence Secretary, or quote the latest polling on Welsh independence, asked me: "who is the Lib Dem leader?"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Cicero said:

    I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.

    On thread, well, I guess I keep a red passport when I renew in 2029. Salmond is a liability of course, and it is not a given that separation happens, especially not with the same economic illiteracy of a "sterling" currency that the SNP seems determined to inflict on us, yet TBH, unless England turns against the Tories, it is hard to see the Union continuing at all.

    The problem is not the powers of Holyrood, it is the powers of Westminster and Whitehall. So, when we start to talk about those problems, then maybe I´ll believe in a common future. The problem is changing London, not Edinburgh.

    The decision is being taken against the advice? Citation please.
    Well, there's the BMJ on Pfizer

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/20/revisiting-the-uks-strategy-for-delaying-the-second-dose-of-the-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/


    HMG seems to have got it right, AND followed the science, with one dose ofOxfordAZ - tho the age thing is still a concern, and now Switzerland have said they won't approve it, which adds to the doubts. The Swiss have no agenda against the UK/AZ

    I am much less convinced HMG got it right with Pfizer




    Yes, but it wasn't against the advice the government received from its scientists. It was a gamble, and not what Pfizer recommended, but the implication of the post was that Tory politicians were being reckless in a gamble - indeed, that was given as a reason why they should not be in office - when in fact it was a calculated risk taken with the advice of its scientific advisers, with pretty clear reasoning behind it. That is not the same thing at all.

    A different government might have made a different call, though I see no evidence of that from what other parties are saying, but there's no reason to believe the advice given to government would have been different.
    I agree. I'm just saying there was plenty of expert science on both sides of the argument - about delaying the 2nd dose. The government took a calculated risk in the middle of a grave crisis, and went for one dose and a delay.

    We shall soon see if that risk has paid off as well as their vaccine procurement.
    Largescale second doses for Pfizer came to an end about 10th January.

    So over three weeks ago.

    If we're going to hear "got infected because didn't receive second Pfizer dose" stories then they're going to happen very soon.

    I'm surprised there haven't been some already.
    We discussed this yesterday. There are some anecdata

    The ones you pasted certainly weren't.
    They were exactly anecdata. Not hard empirical evidence BUT they came from a doctor specialising in old people.

    At the time I put them in context. I did not say I he was right, by any means, I said his opinion was worth hearing, which it was
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Scott_xP said:
    'Re-iterated committment' with 'Constructive discussion' to 'work intensively' to 'find solutions'.

    Arrghghghghghghg!!

    If there's nothing meaningful to say, say nothing!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    'Re-iterated committment' with 'Constructive discussion' to 'work intensively' to 'find solutions'.

    Arrghghghghghghg!!

    If there's nothing meaningful to say, say nothing!
    Yes, but you have to be impressed by just how many words were used there to say nothing meaningful.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,754
    Leon said:

    You have to wonder if Ed Davey has missed his chance to make any sort of impact (not saying it’s his fault during a pandemic - I’m sure that in normal times he’d be making hay on Brexit)?
    The Lib Dems get virtually zero media coverage. With COVID, it is all Boris, Hancock, Sunak, then Starmer, then Piers Moron....
    The other day a friend of mine, who is EXTREMELY well informed on politics, the kind of guy who can give you the exact turnout in the 1997 GE, or name the Shadow Defence Secretary, or quote the latest polling on Welsh independence, asked me: "who is the Lib Dem leader?"
    I think it's a deliberate ploy to remain invisible until close to the election, then emerge as the fresh 'new' face of a new politics just in time for the poll. He knows that we all get tired of politicians and will be fully fed up with Johnson and Starmer by then.

    Plus, from recent Lib Dem experience with Swinson that having a leader too long can make them seem really annoying (more than a week or two in her case)

    Genius :wink:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Cicero said:

    I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.

    On thread, well, I guess I keep a red passport when I renew in 2029. Salmond is a liability of course, and it is not a given that separation happens, especially not with the same economic illiteracy of a "sterling" currency that the SNP seems determined to inflict on us, yet TBH, unless England turns against the Tories, it is hard to see the Union continuing at all.

    The problem is not the powers of Holyrood, it is the powers of Westminster and Whitehall. So, when we start to talk about those problems, then maybe I´ll believe in a common future. The problem is changing London, not Edinburgh.

    The decision is being taken against the advice? Citation please.
    Well, there's the BMJ on Pfizer

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/20/revisiting-the-uks-strategy-for-delaying-the-second-dose-of-the-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/


    HMG seems to have got it right, AND followed the science, with one dose ofOxfordAZ - tho the age thing is still a concern, and now Switzerland have said they won't approve it, which adds to the doubts. The Swiss have no agenda against the UK/AZ

    I am much less convinced HMG got it right with Pfizer




    Yes, but it wasn't against the advice the government received from its scientists. It was a gamble, and not what Pfizer recommended, but the implication of the post was that Tory politicians were being reckless in a gamble - indeed, that was given as a reason why they should not be in office - when in fact it was a calculated risk taken with the advice of its scientific advisers, with pretty clear reasoning behind it. That is not the same thing at all.

    A different government might have made a different call, though I see no evidence of that from what other parties are saying, but there's no reason to believe the advice given to government would have been different.
    I agree. I'm just saying there was plenty of expert science on both sides of the argument - about delaying the 2nd dose. The government took a calculated risk in the middle of a grave crisis, and went for one dose and a delay.

    We shall soon see if that risk has paid off as well as their vaccine procurement.
    Largescale second doses for Pfizer came to an end about 10th January.

    So over three weeks ago.

    If we're going to hear "got infected because didn't receive second Pfizer dose" stories then they're going to happen very soon.

    I'm surprised there haven't been some already.
    We discussed this yesterday. There are some anecdata

    Are we really back to the Pfizer 12-week policy? I mean FFS find some new material, we have been over this fucking ENDLESSLY
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Cicero said:

    I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.

    On thread, well, I guess I keep a red passport when I renew in 2029. Salmond is a liability of course, and it is not a given that separation happens, especially not with the same economic illiteracy of a "sterling" currency that the SNP seems determined to inflict on us, yet TBH, unless England turns against the Tories, it is hard to see the Union continuing at all.

    The problem is not the powers of Holyrood, it is the powers of Westminster and Whitehall. So, when we start to talk about those problems, then maybe I´ll believe in a common future. The problem is changing London, not Edinburgh.

    The decision is being taken against the advice? Citation please.
    Well, there's the BMJ on Pfizer

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/20/revisiting-the-uks-strategy-for-delaying-the-second-dose-of-the-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/


    HMG seems to have got it right, AND followed the science, with one dose ofOxfordAZ - tho the age thing is still a concern, and now Switzerland have said they won't approve it, which adds to the doubts. The Swiss have no agenda against the UK/AZ

    I am much less convinced HMG got it right with Pfizer




    Yes, but it wasn't against the advice the government received from its scientists. It was a gamble, and not what Pfizer recommended, but the implication of the post was that Tory politicians were being reckless in a gamble - indeed, that was given as a reason why they should not be in office - when in fact it was a calculated risk taken with the advice of its scientific advisers, with pretty clear reasoning behind it. That is not the same thing at all.

    A different government might have made a different call, though I see no evidence of that from what other parties are saying, but there's no reason to believe the advice given to government would have been different.
    I agree. I'm just saying there was plenty of expert science on both sides of the argument - about delaying the 2nd dose. The government took a calculated risk in the middle of a grave crisis, and went for one dose and a delay.

    We shall soon see if that risk has paid off as well as their vaccine procurement.
    Largescale second doses for Pfizer came to an end about 10th January.

    So over three weeks ago.

    If we're going to hear "got infected because didn't receive second Pfizer dose" stories then they're going to happen very soon.

    I'm surprised there haven't been some already.
    We discussed this yesterday. There are some anecdata

    The ones you pasted certainly weren't.
    They were exactly anecdata. Not hard empirical evidence BUT they came from a doctor specialising in old people.

    At the time I put them in context. I did not say I he was right, by any means, I said his opinion was worth hearing, which it was
    They were bollox.

    Reporting a 'substantial outbreak' about the time a second dose would have taken place.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Beer gardens at Easter I reckon.

    Opening up more widely late June, first day of summer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    You have to wonder if Ed Davey has missed his chance to make any sort of impact (not saying it’s his fault during a pandemic - I’m sure that in normal times he’d be making hay on Brexit)?
    The Lib Dems get virtually zero media coverage. With COVID, it is all Boris, Hancock, Sunak, then Starmer, then Piers Moron....
    The other day a friend of mine, who is EXTREMELY well informed on politics, the kind of guy who can give you the exact turnout in the 1997 GE, or name the Shadow Defence Secretary, or quote the latest polling on Welsh independence, asked me: "who is the Lib Dem leader?"
    I think it's a deliberate ploy to remain invisible until close to the election, then emerge as the fresh 'new' face of a new politics just in time for the poll. He knows that we all get tired of politicians and will be fully fed up with Johnson and Starmer by then.

    Plus, from recent Lib Dem experience with Swinson that having a leader too long can make them seem really annoying (more than a week or two in her case)

    Genius :wink:
    Ah, that's it


    Actually, I'm nearly as big a politics geek as him (I'm on here every day for a start), and when he asked me It took me a full 30 seconds to say Ed Davey, and even then it was a bit of a guess. Indeed, it still is

    *checks Google*
  • Floater said:
    New European will still be on brand, don't worry yourself about that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Cicero said:

    I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.

    On thread, well, I guess I keep a red passport when I renew in 2029. Salmond is a liability of course, and it is not a given that separation happens, especially not with the same economic illiteracy of a "sterling" currency that the SNP seems determined to inflict on us, yet TBH, unless England turns against the Tories, it is hard to see the Union continuing at all.

    The problem is not the powers of Holyrood, it is the powers of Westminster and Whitehall. So, when we start to talk about those problems, then maybe I´ll believe in a common future. The problem is changing London, not Edinburgh.

    The decision is being taken against the advice? Citation please.
    Well, there's the BMJ on Pfizer

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/20/revisiting-the-uks-strategy-for-delaying-the-second-dose-of-the-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/


    HMG seems to have got it right, AND followed the science, with one dose ofOxfordAZ - tho the age thing is still a concern, and now Switzerland have said they won't approve it, which adds to the doubts. The Swiss have no agenda against the UK/AZ

    I am much less convinced HMG got it right with Pfizer




    Yes, but it wasn't against the advice the government received from its scientists. It was a gamble, and not what Pfizer recommended, but the implication of the post was that Tory politicians were being reckless in a gamble - indeed, that was given as a reason why they should not be in office - when in fact it was a calculated risk taken with the advice of its scientific advisers, with pretty clear reasoning behind it. That is not the same thing at all.

    A different government might have made a different call, though I see no evidence of that from what other parties are saying, but there's no reason to believe the advice given to government would have been different.
    I agree. I'm just saying there was plenty of expert science on both sides of the argument - about delaying the 2nd dose. The government took a calculated risk in the middle of a grave crisis, and went for one dose and a delay.

    We shall soon see if that risk has paid off as well as their vaccine procurement.
    Largescale second doses for Pfizer came to an end about 10th January.

    So over three weeks ago.

    If we're going to hear "got infected because didn't receive second Pfizer dose" stories then they're going to happen very soon.

    I'm surprised there haven't been some already.
    We discussed this yesterday. There are some anecdata

    Are we really back to the Pfizer 12-week policy? I mean FFS find some new material, we have been over this fucking ENDLESSLY
    I DIDN'T START IT

    STOP SHOUTING AT ME

    I am quite happy to talk about ANYTHING else. Even Scotland
  • Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Its obviously going to be all of February.

    We've known that since they set the 15/02 target for categories 1-4.

    But if infection and hospitalization rates keep falling and vaccination keeps increasing at current (let alone faster) rates then lockdown ends in March.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ch4 news mentioned a Universiry of East Anglia study that says infection rates go up for the first week after vaccination. I haven't seen or heard of this (and seems too soon from the start of our vaccination programme to be able to make such a claim)

    Anybody know anything about this?

    In Israel, there has been a real problem of people throwing caution to the wind immediately after vaccination. People would invite all their friends around for dinner to celebrate having the vaccine.
    Israel also has a MAJOR problem with Ultra-Orthodox Jews who simply refuse to obey any lockdown rules. That's about 12% of the Israeli population. Equivalent to 7m people here
    They do.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,754
    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    You have to wonder if Ed Davey has missed his chance to make any sort of impact (not saying it’s his fault during a pandemic - I’m sure that in normal times he’d be making hay on Brexit)?
    The Lib Dems get virtually zero media coverage. With COVID, it is all Boris, Hancock, Sunak, then Starmer, then Piers Moron....
    The other day a friend of mine, who is EXTREMELY well informed on politics, the kind of guy who can give you the exact turnout in the 1997 GE, or name the Shadow Defence Secretary, or quote the latest polling on Welsh independence, asked me: "who is the Lib Dem leader?"
    I think it's a deliberate ploy to remain invisible until close to the election, then emerge as the fresh 'new' face of a new politics just in time for the poll. He knows that we all get tired of politicians and will be fully fed up with Johnson and Starmer by then.

    Plus, from recent Lib Dem experience with Swinson that having a leader too long can make them seem really annoying (more than a week or two in her case)

    Genius :wink:
    Ah, that's it


    Actually, I'm nearly as big a politics geek as him (I'm on here every day for a start), and when he asked me It took me a full 30 seconds to say Ed Davey, and even then it was a bit of a guess. Indeed, it still is

    *checks Google*
    Also means there will be very few people who actually dislike Davey.
  • Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/article-9220425/Josh-Adams-THROWN-Wales-Six-Nations-squad-Covid-breach.html

    This gender reveal party thing....is this big now? Another crappy thing we have imported from the US...broke the rules to have a party in lockdown to tell people what sex his sprog will be... shakes head.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    Now all we need is the onion.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    Cicero said:

    I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.

    The statement in bold is to the best of my knowledge completely false, it would be a huge news story if true. You should either put up or shut up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    BBC News - South Africa Covid variant: Birmingham cases 'not linked to travel'

    Birmingham City Council said the two people tested positive in early January, but it was not until Friday when random tests picked up the variant.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-55926954

    Its here, its spread, only a matter of time before it is dominating local rugby and cricket....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879

    Now all we need is the onion.
    And the Union is stuffed?
  • glw said:

    Cicero said:

    I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.

    The statement in bold is to the best of my knowledge completely false, it would be a huge news story if true. You should either put up or shut up.
    Obviously some UVDL desperate mouthpiece
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
  • Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
    Gyms are in tier 3.

    They were still open in Yorkshire on 04/01.

    When new cases were 60% higher than they are now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    Be interesting to know what info the UK is giving out. I think my parents got some sort of leaflet, but no idea if it refers to time after jab, they didn't seem especially clued up on how long before any real immunity kicks in.

    I can tell you what my husband received because he had his first jab today (hallelujah!)

    Two leaflets - a very boring looking black and white thing that resembles the kind of flyer that one finds neatly folded up inside any packet of tablets, and a more user-friendly looking leaflet with two friendly looking people of more mature years smiling on the front.

    I scanned the boring looking leaflet and noticed that it contained an instruction to make sure you get your second jab, but I couldn't be arsed to go through the whole thing properly. The colourful leaflet with the older people only says you should plan to attend a second appointment between 3 and 12 weeks after the first, that it's important to have two doses of the same vaccine, and to keep the record card that you get given with the first vaccine safe (presumably so that the second vaccinator can tell what you've had without needing to resort to searching records.)

    Separately to the leaflet, of course, patients will also be getting information directly at the vaccination centre - husband was told that his second appointment would be in 12 weeks' time and he would be contacted again to arrange it nearer to that time.*

    The colourful leaflet also reminds people that it may take a week or two to build some protection, but vaccines are in any event never completely effective so people should continue to take precautions to avoid infection. It also has another reminder at the end to keep doing the whole hands face space thing.

    *EDIT: Husband got his jab at the local GP; my Dad was invited to go to a mass vaccination centre instead, and was therefore invited to book the date for his second appointment at the same time as the first.
    The irony is that it might be more effective to get your second jab from a different vaccine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Two other far-right US groups - Atomwaffen Division and the Base - have also been designated by Canada as terrorist entities, along with several affiliates of the Islamic State group and al-Qaeda.

    BBC News - Proud Boys: Canada labels far-right group a terrorist entity
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55923485

    If you are going to form a far right extremist group probably not the best idea to call it Waffen something, some people you know might think that you might be you know a far right extremist group.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    You have to wonder if Ed Davey has missed his chance to make any sort of impact (not saying it’s his fault during a pandemic - I’m sure that in normal times he’d be making hay on Brexit)?
    The Lib Dems get virtually zero media coverage. With COVID, it is all Boris, Hancock, Sunak, then Starmer, then Piers Moron....
    The other day a friend of mine, who is EXTREMELY well informed on politics, the kind of guy who can give you the exact turnout in the 1997 GE, or name the Shadow Defence Secretary, or quote the latest polling on Welsh independence, asked me: "who is the Lib Dem leader?"
    I think it's a deliberate ploy to remain invisible until close to the election, then emerge as the fresh 'new' face of a new politics just in time for the poll. He knows that we all get tired of politicians and will be fully fed up with Johnson and Starmer by then.

    Plus, from recent Lib Dem experience with Swinson that having a leader too long can make them seem really annoying (more than a week or two in her case)

    Genius :wink:
    Ah, that's it


    Actually, I'm nearly as big a politics geek as him (I'm on here every day for a start), and when he asked me It took me a full 30 seconds to say Ed Davey, and even then it was a bit of a guess. Indeed, it still is

    *checks Google*
    Also means there will be very few people who actually dislike Davey.
    The problem* the LDs have is that Davey's selling point - that he sounds like a not terribly unreasonable and vaguely competent man in his mid 50s - is exactly the same as Starmer's.

    * Yeah OK, one of the LDs problems
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
    Reckon we’ll squeeze beer gardens plus table service 2 April, otherwise I agree
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
    We've danced around this handbag a million times. Yes, the SNP could hold a wildcat "advisory" referendum, not legally sanctioned by Westminster

    It would be boycotted by unionists and it would backfire disastrously
  • Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
    Gyms are in tier 3.

    They were still open in Yorkshire on 04/01.

    When new cases were 60% higher than they are now.
    Maybe Boris will move them to Tier 2. It won't be quite the same as the Tiers that we had before. Some people think they are high risk. It's not a venue with which I am familiar!

    Overall the reopening will be more cautious than last summer.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Alistair said:

    Why is he doing the interview by his front door?

    These are the real questions I want answered.
    Only a matter of time before Mrs Curtice enters from behind him laden with Tesco bags.
  • Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    Nah the logic doesn't work. That's like saying that the EU Parliament would need to authorise a Brexit referendum, or Westminster could have held Brexit referenda twice a month.

    Whoever determines whether a referenda is legal or not, it will be politics not the law that then determines how often they can be held.

    It may be that the Scottish Parliament has the power, or it may be they don't, because the power to allow Indyrefs is not expressly reserved. It depends upon how you read the law - which means its unclear and so SCOTUK could rule either way if it went that far.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    edited February 2021

    glw said:

    Cicero said:

    I would say that the weird UK information space that still thinks that putting out as many single doses as possible is an acceptable risk, even if it did lead to vaccine resistant strains, and that this decision is being taken by Tory politicians against the advice of the science and that is OK. Well, to be polite, that is not the view in the EU. If vaccine resistance happens, the UK will be quarantined way beyond anything we have seen so far. That this risk has been taken so casually is why the the Tories should not be in office.

    The statement in bold is to the best of my knowledge completely false, it would be a huge news story if true. You should either put up or shut up.
    Obviously some UVDL desperate mouthpiece
    The press are able to question the CSA, CMO, and others on a regular basis about the vaccine strategy, and the press have done so. All the advisers have explained and defended* the vaccine strategy, if the government was going against their advice they are doing a good job of hiding their disagreement. Nor have their been any leaks suggesting the goverment is going against their advice. Frankly the idea that "Tory politicians" are winging it is just daft, they aren't that bright, and even if they were, they somehow have hoodwinked the Scots, Welsh, and Northern Irish too, which seems not just implausible but at odds of what we would expect the politics to lead to. i.e. The SNP would love to say the "Tories are going to get us all killed".

    * I listen to all these briefings and Whitty in particular is clearly fully behind the approach of vaccinating as many people as possible as quickly as possible.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
    Gyms are in tier 3.

    They were still open in Yorkshire on 04/01.

    When new cases were 60% higher than they are now.
    Maybe Boris will move them to Tier 2. It won't be quite the same as the Tiers that we had before. Some people think they are high risk. It's not a venue with which I am familiar!

    Overall the reopening will be more cautious than last summer.
    I simply don't understand the desire to be in a room full of sweaty, panting people.

    Exercise at home? Its perfectly doable without too much equipment*

    *Though I have to say my Peloton has been a lifesaver
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited February 2021
    Okay, some of you gave him a bit longer than me, and some of you still believe he is an adequate replacement for the bumbling idiot currently occupying Number 10.

    He’s not.


    Well, I wasn't expecting such a frank admission that they'd prefer Boris to Keir.

    I'll say this though - when taking the government to task over Covid, she doesn't make the error of implying all the 100k deaths are its fault, merely 'many thousands', which is better than many do.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    You have to wonder if Ed Davey has missed his chance to make any sort of impact (not saying it’s his fault during a pandemic - I’m sure that in normal times he’d be making hay on Brexit)?
    The Lib Dems get virtually zero media coverage. With COVID, it is all Boris, Hancock, Sunak, then Starmer, then Piers Moron....
    The other day a friend of mine, who is EXTREMELY well informed on politics, the kind of guy who can give you the exact turnout in the 1997 GE, or name the Shadow Defence Secretary, or quote the latest polling on Welsh independence, asked me: "who is the Lib Dem leader?"
    I think it's a deliberate ploy to remain invisible until close to the election, then emerge as the fresh 'new' face of a new politics just in time for the poll. He knows that we all get tired of politicians and will be fully fed up with Johnson and Starmer by then.

    Plus, from recent Lib Dem experience with Swinson that having a leader too long can make them seem really annoying (more than a week or two in her case)

    Genius :wink:
    Ah, that's it


    Actually, I'm nearly as big a politics geek as him (I'm on here every day for a start), and when he asked me It took me a full 30 seconds to say Ed Davey, and even then it was a bit of a guess. Indeed, it still is

    *checks Google*
    Also means there will be very few people who actually dislike Davey.
    The problem* the LDs have is that Davey's selling point - that he sounds like a not terribly unreasonable and vaguely competent man in his mid 50s - is exactly the same as Starmer's.

    * Yeah OK, one of the LDs problems
    Ed Daley (you can tell that someone has a recognition problem when people can't get his name right) needs a big gesture to get himself noticed.

    I open the suggestions with ... he should punch Grant Shapps in the face.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Notably, Mother's Day is the following weekend. A particularly busy event in the Johnson household...
  • Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
    We've danced around this handbag a million times. Yes, the SNP could hold a wildcat "advisory" referendum, not legally sanctioned by Westminster

    It would be boycotted by unionists and it would backfire disastrously
    If SCOTUK says that Holyrood has the power to call the referendum then it wouldn't be wildcat.

    All referenda are "advisory", that's the law.
  • Foxy said:

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Notably, Mother's Day is the following weekend. A particularly busy event in the Johnson household...
    But not as busy as Father's Day.
  • Mortimer said:

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
    Gyms are in tier 3.

    They were still open in Yorkshire on 04/01.

    When new cases were 60% higher than they are now.
    Maybe Boris will move them to Tier 2. It won't be quite the same as the Tiers that we had before. Some people think they are high risk. It's not a venue with which I am familiar!

    Overall the reopening will be more cautious than last summer.
    I simply don't understand the desire to be in a room full of sweaty, panting people.

    Exercise at home? Its perfectly doable without too much equipment*

    *Though I have to say my Peloton has been a lifesaver
    Bit difficult to swim at home.
  • Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
    Reckon we’ll squeeze beer gardens plus table service 2 April, otherwise I agree
    I like it! Feels a bit optimistic though. Wrap up warm 🍺
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    Rather than deciding when lockdown is likely to be over, let's ask a different question. Is Sunak going to have to move the end date to the furlough scheme again?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
    Gyms are in tier 3.

    They were still open in Yorkshire on 04/01.

    When new cases were 60% higher than they are now.
    Maybe Boris will move them to Tier 2. It won't be quite the same as the Tiers that we had before. Some people think they are high risk. It's not a venue with which I am familiar!

    Overall the reopening will be more cautious than last summer.
    I simply don't understand the desire to be in a room full of sweaty, panting people.

    Exercise at home? Its perfectly doable without too much equipment*

    *Though I have to say my Peloton has been a lifesaver
    Bit difficult to swim at home.
    Another benefit of Dorset....
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    The real problem for Labour is that Starmer isn't the problem. It's the lightweights and leftovers around him that are putting people off.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    BBC News - South Africa Covid variant: Birmingham cases 'not linked to travel'

    Birmingham City Council said the two people tested positive in early January, but it was not until Friday when random tests picked up the variant.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-55926954

    Its here, its spread, only a matter of time before it is dominating local rugby and cricket....

    I thought our ICU was bad, running at 165% of capacity, but apparently in Brum they are at 300%. Sounds very grim.
  • Liverpool 0 - Brighton 1.....snigger...
  • Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
    We've danced around this handbag a million times. Yes, the SNP could hold a wildcat "advisory" referendum, not legally sanctioned by Westminster

    It would be boycotted by unionists and it would backfire disastrously
    If SCOTUK says that Holyrood has the power to call the referendum then it wouldn't be wildcat.

    All referenda are "advisory", that's the law.
    "Referendums" in English!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Rather than deciding when lockdown is likely to be over, let's ask a different question. Is Sunak going to have to move the end date to the furlough scheme again?

    I suspect yes, I also think he'll have to increase the upper limit for the BBLs.
  • Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
    Gyms are in tier 3.

    They were still open in Yorkshire on 04/01.

    When new cases were 60% higher than they are now.
    Maybe Boris will move them to Tier 2. It won't be quite the same as the Tiers that we had before. Some people think they are high risk. It's not a venue with which I am familiar!

    Overall the reopening will be more cautious than last summer.
    If the infections and hospitalizations keep falling and the vaccinations keep increasing then lockdown ends.

    It doesn't matter how cautious Boris wants to be its the numbers which will determine events.

    Its certainly possible, and I think RCS believes this, that infections come down FAST as the effect of more and more vaccinations comes into play.
  • Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
    We've danced around this handbag a million times. Yes, the SNP could hold a wildcat "advisory" referendum, not legally sanctioned by Westminster

    It would be boycotted by unionists and it would backfire disastrously
    The Northern Ireland referendum of 1973 was boycotted by Nationalists, resulting in an almost North Korean 98% vote (to stay in the UK).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,440
    I’m late to the party, is Rachel Swindon from Swindon, or is that her surname?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Mortimer said:

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Yes it's all about national level relaxations now. Locally based measures are out the window as they don't work!

    Schools in part - from 8 March

    Tier 3 eg non essential shopping maybe hairdressers - 29 March

    Tier 2 eg gyms - 12 April

    Tier 1 Inc pubs but with rule of 6 and mandatory table service - 1 May
    Gyms are in tier 3.

    They were still open in Yorkshire on 04/01.

    When new cases were 60% higher than they are now.
    Maybe Boris will move them to Tier 2. It won't be quite the same as the Tiers that we had before. Some people think they are high risk. It's not a venue with which I am familiar!

    Overall the reopening will be more cautious than last summer.
    I simply don't understand the desire to be in a room full of sweaty, panting people.

    Exercise at home? Its perfectly doable without too much equipment*

    *Though I have to say my Peloton has been a lifesaver
    The gym's good for weights, saves you having to find room for equipment in a small home, and represents a change from running round and round and round the town in circles. Especially when you also live in a small town, where there aren't that many places to go and it can get very dull sometimes.

    The room is also very far from full (or was before they closed it again for months, anyway.) One of the few good things about social distancing: you book a slot in advance and don't have to spend two-thirds of the time either trying to make do with the wrong kit or waiting for other people to get out of the damned way.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I’m late to the party, is Rachel Swindon from Swindon, or is that her surname?
    Could be both
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Who's Rachael Swindon? Whoever it is has a point though it would be nice to know where she's coming from
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021

    I’m late to the party, is Rachel Swindon from Swindon, or is that her surname?
    Rachel (or perhaps Bob) from Swindon...some how this random account became bascially the semi-official propaganda central for Jezza / Moamentum.

    Its claimed it is just a random lady, but some are a bit suspicious.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Roger said:

    Who's Rachael Swindon? Whoever it is has a point though it would be nice to know where she's coming from
    A huge Corbynista.
  • Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
    We've danced around this handbag a million times. Yes, the SNP could hold a wildcat "advisory" referendum, not legally sanctioned by Westminster

    It would be boycotted by unionists and it would backfire disastrously
    If SCOTUK says that Holyrood has the power to call the referendum then it wouldn't be wildcat.

    All referenda are "advisory", that's the law.
    Wrong, the AV referendum was legally binding.

    https://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/AV_Referendum_Media_Briefing_Pack.pdf
  • Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    One would hope that the SCOTUK would be looking at the situation through the lens of legal and moral principle rather than that of feartie, hypocritical Unionism. I obviously have a higher opinion of British institutions than you.
  • Conference is going to be fun if the May elections happen and he doesn’t sweep all before him.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    Foxy said:

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Notably, Mother's Day is the following weekend. A particularly busy event in the Johnson household...
    But not as busy as Father's Day.
    You're on fire this evening @another_richard
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Why is he doing the interview by his front door?

    These are the real questions I want answered.
    Only a matter of time before Mrs Curtice enters from behind him laden with Tesco bags.
    He was waiting for his Iceland delivery, of course.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Roger said:

    Who's Rachael Swindon? Whoever it is has a point though it would be nice to know where she's coming from
    Well, Swindon, obviously.
  • Excellent thread on what exactly they mean by vaccine efficiency.


    https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1310613702476017666
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    @Cicero receipts for single jabs causing a higher rate of mutations. Put up or shut up time because that's bullshit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
    We've danced around this handbag a million times. Yes, the SNP could hold a wildcat "advisory" referendum, not legally sanctioned by Westminster

    It would be boycotted by unionists and it would backfire disastrously
    If SCOTUK says that Holyrood has the power to call the referendum then it wouldn't be wildcat.

    All referenda are "advisory", that's the law.
    Wrong, the AV referendum was legally binding.

    https://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/AV_Referendum_Media_Briefing_Pack.pdf
    Which was why the false confusion of the government over the Brexit one was just silly. They knew how you'd make it binding.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited February 2021

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    One would hope that the SCOTUK would be looking at the situation through the lens of legal and moral principle rather than that of feartie, hypocritical Unionism. I obviously have a higher opinion of British institutions than you.
    No sane British Government wants this settled in court, and anyway the moral case is clear with an SNP win. On the other hand I can’t see the Scottish Government not giving way a bit on dates in amongst Covid. So I’m thinking there will be a referendum in mid-late 2022.
  • DougSeal said:
    That would require about 10m infections.

    As covid deaths in Delhi are nearly 11k that would suggest a 0.1% IFR.

    Which would be about half that of western cities.

    Delhi I would guess would have a younger age demographic and less obesity but would have more air pollution and worse health care.
  • Which ones were the the LibDems? Did they used to be the ones in the yellow ties?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Who's Rachael Swindon? Whoever it is has a point though it would be nice to know where she's coming from
    A huge Corbynista.
    Interesting that she thinks now is the time to stick her head above the parapet....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
    We've danced around this handbag a million times. Yes, the SNP could hold a wildcat "advisory" referendum, not legally sanctioned by Westminster

    It would be boycotted by unionists and it would backfire disastrously
    If SCOTUK says that Holyrood has the power to call the referendum then it wouldn't be wildcat.

    All referenda are "advisory", that's the law.

    Not so. A referendum can be binding if it (the Act enabling it) refers to already drafted legislation and requires the government to enact it should the referendum proposition be accepted. That was done for the AV referendum.

    Normally, of course, such a course is difficult, if not impossible. Although we’d all be better off had Cammo applied a bit of thought to it in place of his hubris in assuming he could see off his nutters regardless.
  • MaxPB said:

    @Cicero receipts for single jabs causing a higher rate of mutations. Put up or shut up time because that's bullshit.

    I thought Boris was very kind today at PMQs, offering - several times - to help out the Scottish with their vaccines!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
    We've danced around this handbag a million times. Yes, the SNP could hold a wildcat "advisory" referendum, not legally sanctioned by Westminster

    It would be boycotted by unionists and it would backfire disastrously
    If SCOTUK says that Holyrood has the power to call the referendum then it wouldn't be wildcat.

    All referenda are "advisory", that's the law.
    Parliament could legislate for a binding referendum. There’s no overarching law on referenda. An easy way to make one binding would be to pass an Act on whatever topic and then a commencement measure that read “This Act shall come into force the day after its ratification by a popular referendum as detailed in section x”. You would then need another Act of Parliament to repeal it,
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Foxy said:

    Noticeable from Boris tonight, plan for schools 8th March and talk of national easing mot regional. I took that we should expect lockdown or lockdown-- to continue for quite a lot of time yet.

    Notably, Mother's Day is the following weekend. A particularly busy event in the Johnson household...
    But not as busy as Father's Day.
    It would be busier if a bunch of his kids weren’t refusing any contact with him.
  • New cases reported:

    06/01 62,322
    13/01 47,525
    20/01 38,905
    27/01 25,308
    03/02 19,202

    And that is with significantly higher testing and before vaccination has had more than a minor effect.
  • IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Curtice is great on polling and good on politics. He's not a constitutional lawyer.

    Neither am I, of course, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the SCOTUK would not come down on the side of Westminster. Allowing indyrefs is expressly reserved to Westminster. And it has to be, as otherwise any constituent nation of the UK could have a referendum any time it likes, twice a month maybe, if its Assembly has that power.

    The SNP could call seven a day until they get YES

    Logically the power is therefore reserved for Westminster.
    As they are advisory and non binding indeed they could.
    We've danced around this handbag a million times. Yes, the SNP could hold a wildcat "advisory" referendum, not legally sanctioned by Westminster

    It would be boycotted by unionists and it would backfire disastrously
    If SCOTUK says that Holyrood has the power to call the referendum then it wouldn't be wildcat.

    All referenda are "advisory", that's the law.

    Not so. A referendum can be binding if it (the Act enabling it) refers to already drafted legislation and requires the government to enact it should the referendum proposition be accepted. That was done for the AV referendum.

    Normally, of course, such a course is difficult, if not impossible. Although we’d all be better off had Cammo applied a bit of thought to it in place of his hubris in assuming he could see off his nutters regardless.
    The Brexit Referendum couldn't be binding as it involved a deal with a foreign party.

    The only way it could have been binding was if it was a 'simple' repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act.

    Putting an automaticity for triggering Article 50 wasn't an option either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    New cases reported:

    06/01 62,322
    13/01 47,525
    20/01 38,905
    27/01 25,308
    03/02 19,202

    And that is with significantly higher testing and before vaccination has had more than a minor effect.

    Yep, lockdowns work. It is ending them that is problematic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Foxy said:

    New cases reported:

    06/01 62,322
    13/01 47,525
    20/01 38,905
    27/01 25,308
    03/02 19,202

    And that is with significantly higher testing and before vaccination has had more than a minor effect.

    Yep, lockdowns work. It is ending them that is problematic.
    Contrarian will not be happy about that last part.
  • Not supposed to playing football at all, are they? Not surprised he’s annoyed.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:
    That would require about 10m infections.

    As covid deaths in Delhi are nearly 11k that would suggest a 0.1% IFR.

    Which would be about half that of western cities.

    Delhi I would guess would have a younger age demographic and less obesity but would have more air pollution and worse health care.
    They also have exposure from childhood to antigens that we in the antiseptic west could not dream of.
This discussion has been closed.