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Next week’s Trump impeachment vote: Which way will McConnell vote? – politicalbetting.com

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    England only NHS Covid daily deaths below.

    18 Jan looks like being the peak (842). (A few short of April peak 900.)

    Under 700 and falling now.

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1356246325315203073/photo/1
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    It's hard to tell if this is a biological or psychological effect. The steeper increase is scarier, and therefore you would expect it to lead to a stronger collective response.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    TimT said:

    Speaking of the Daily Mail (eg @FrancisUrquhart's link) their web site is getting harder and harder to read with all the pop-up videos and adverts. Guido's is even worse. I guess in the short term it brings in the moolah but, well, perhaps they follow Keynes on the long term.

    Along with the Express, the Mail's website has joined the list of sites I don't bother going to. Partly what you said, partly the content is rarely worth the effort.
    Out of interest, have you replaced them with others, or just narrowed the field?
    Frankly, I find this site, when it is lively, provides me with as much diversity of opinions (and sources) as I can handle. I don't think cutting back on those particular sites actually diminishes the breadth of opinions to which I am exposed.

    I am more interested in primary sources of information of data, and well thought out opinion (even if it conflicts with mine). I do think journalism in general is in a tough spot now - reduced print and ad revenues means that they neither have the quality nor number of journalists to do most stories justice at any more than a superficial level. Consequently, yes, I do rely less on journalism for both my information and exposure to other opinions and analysis.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021
    maaarsh said:

    Anecdata.

    Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.

    Vaccinations of friends:-
    Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects.
    Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects.
    Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).

    Two family members got AZ today from centres that appear to have been exclusively doing Pfizer up to then.

    Shortages? Or government going safety first just in case the EU decide to throw another Cartman tantrum?
    So far from people I know of vaccinated, all the ones in London got Pfizer and all the ones elsewhere got Oxford.
    That's a funny coincidence given the vaccines have been distributed nationwide consistently.

    For what it's worth most of my relatives who've got it got Pfizer. That is in the Northwest.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Scotland's move to control the border is good, hopefully it will put pressure on the whole UK government to do it and approach Ireland over a two island solution. I think we should offer Ireland access to our vaccine scheme as part of them becoming part of the same travel restriction bubble. What we have now isn't good enough.
  • Richard Nixon must be wondering why he had to resign. Mitch McConnell must also be wondering why Nixon resigned.

    Nixon resigned because he knew the US Senate would vote to convict him. That's why.
    Yes but today's McConnell-led hyper-partisan Senate would acquit Nixon. That's the point.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    Conservatives on 90% plus after secondary polling?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    It's hard to tell if this is a biological or psychological effect. The steeper increase is scarier, and therefore you would expect it to lead to a stronger collective response.
    Farr's law. It's a law based on empirical evidence rather than on theory, so provides no explanation as to why.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    DougSeal said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
    Even after nearly a year, there is still so much mystery around COVID.
  • maaarsh said:

    Anecdata.

    Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.

    Vaccinations of friends:-
    Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects.
    Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects.
    Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).

    Two family members got AZ today from centres that appear to have been exclusively doing Pfizer up to then.

    Shortages? Or government going safety first just in case the EU decide to throw another Cartman tantrum?
    So far from people I know of vaccinated, all the ones in London got Pfizer and all the ones elsewhere got Oxford.
    The two AZ/Oxford jabees I mentioned earlier were both 70+ and in two different London boroughs last week.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    DougSeal said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
    Even after nearly a year, there is still so much mystery around COVID.
    3.7 billion years of life, and it's still a mystery.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    edited February 2021
    Fishing said:


    So, Ynys Mon is exempt from the quota.

    I did not know that -- I thought the argument was (unlike the other exempt islands) Ynys Mon was connected to the mainland by a bridge and so the exemption did not apply.

    If so, that is good news for the Tories & PC in Ynys Mon -- as the Labour stronghold of Bangor cannot be joined with Ynys Mon to make a reasonably safe Labour seat.

    Though the current Tory MP richly deserves the boot, the seat will stay a 3 way marginal.
    All the island exemptions should be scrapped now we don't need to conciliate the LDs.
    And yet.
    We've gone from 2 protected Island constituencies to 5.
    Maybe the "all constituencies should be equal" is a slogan not a policy?
    And, yes, they should be scrapped.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    I hope McConnell votes to convict but I doubt it. GOP politicians have little trouble in uncoupling what is politically expedient today from what they said yesterday.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    kle4 said:

    Richard Nixon must be wondering why he had to resign. Mitch McConnell must also be wondering why Nixon resigned.

    Aaron Burr must be wondering - "What did I do wrong again?"
    Aaron Burr was acquitted at HIS trial, with Chief Justice John Marshall as judge.
    Trump's going to be so lucky - the only president to be declared super duper innocent TWICE.
    Any future racketeering and money laundering trial might not go so well. Looking forward to seeing him in a fetching orange jumpsuit- to match the tan.
  • Conservatives on 90% plus after secondary polling?
    I wonder if 3% really knew what the Reform Party was, or whether they said/selected “Brexit Party”. Changing the name like that must be risky because the nature of what it is isn’t in the name now, and Farage hasn’t had a lot of airtime. Will matter in real elections.
  • TimT said:

    DougSeal said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
    Even after nearly a year, there is still so much mystery around COVID.
    3.7 billion years of life, and it's still a mystery.
    Nah that's all solved isn't it....the alien lizard people were sent here and they colonized the planet.
  • Conservatives on 90% plus after secondary polling?
    I wonder if 3% really knew what the Reform Party was, or whether they said/selected “Brexit Party”. Changing the name like that must be risky because the nature of what it is isn’t in the name now, and Farage hasn’t had a lot of airtime. Will matter in real elections.
    In real elections Farage is a joke anyway.

    It was only Proportional Representation and the joke European Parliament that led to him having any success.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    maaarsh said:

    Anecdata.

    Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.

    Vaccinations of friends:-
    Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects.
    Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects.
    Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).

    Two family members got AZ today from centres that appear to have been exclusively doing Pfizer up to then.

    Shortages? Or government going safety first just in case the EU decide to throw another Cartman tantrum?
    So far from people I know of vaccinated, all the ones in London got Pfizer and all the ones elsewhere got Oxford.
    The two AZ/Oxford jabees I mentioned earlier were both 70+ and in two different London boroughs last week.
    90% of this weeks 1st jabs will be AZ
  • kle4 said:

    Richard Nixon must be wondering why he had to resign. Mitch McConnell must also be wondering why Nixon resigned.

    Aaron Burr must be wondering - "What did I do wrong again?"
    Aaron Burr was acquitted at HIS trial, with Chief Justice John Marshall as judge.
    Trump's going to be so lucky - the only president to be declared super duper innocent TWICE.
    In impeachment trials (in US anyway) there is no such thing as an innocent or not guilty verdict.

    Just convicted versus not convicted. So calling You-Know-Who "innocent" after his (first) trial (or Andrew Johnson or Bill Clinton) is rhetoric NOT law.

    Surely few with all their marbles would consider ANY of the impeached POTUS trio to be "innocents"!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
  • TimT said:

    DougSeal said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
    Even after nearly a year, there is still so much mystery around COVID.
    3.7 billion years of life, and it's still a mystery.
    Nah that's all solved isn't it....the alien lizard people were sent here and they colonized the planet.
    How much will you charge me to get to that level of understanding in your church?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kle4 said:

    Richard Nixon must be wondering why he had to resign. Mitch McConnell must also be wondering why Nixon resigned.

    Aaron Burr must be wondering - "What did I do wrong again?"
    Aaron Burr was acquitted at HIS trial, with Chief Justice John Marshall as judge.
    Trump's going to be so lucky - the only president to be declared super duper innocent TWICE.
    In impeachment trials (in US anyway) there is no such thing as an innocent or not guilty verdict.

    Just convicted versus not convicted. So calling You-Know-Who "innocent" after his (first) trial (or Andrew Johnson or Bill Clinton) is rhetoric NOT law.

    Surely few with all their marbles would consider ANY of the impeached POTUS trio to be "innocents"!
    Also true of all English criminal trials, and probably US ones.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TimT said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    It's hard to tell if this is a biological or psychological effect. The steeper increase is scarier, and therefore you would expect it to lead to a stronger collective response.
    Farr's law. It's a law based on empirical evidence rather than on theory, so provides no explanation as to why.
    If Farr's law is correct on a global scale then based on the many and varied charts I have been obsessively poring over the global pandemic should be at an end on October. I know it is not as easy as that but global deaths have started to fall this month and if, big if, Farr's Law holds up and on such a scale we will have had roughly a 18-24 month pandemic. About the same as the 1918-20 flu pandemic.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2021
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    TimT said:

    DougSeal said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
    Even after nearly a year, there is still so much mystery around COVID.
    3.7 billion years of life, and it's still a mystery.
    Nah that's all solved isn't it....the alien lizard people were sent here and they colonized the planet.
    How much will you charge me to get to that level of understanding in your church?
    How much you got? How many homes? Private jet?
  • TimT said:

    DougSeal said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
    Even after nearly a year, there is still so much mystery around COVID.
    3.7 billion years of life, and it's still a mystery.
    Nah that's all solved isn't it....the alien lizard people were sent here and they colonized the planet.
    How much will you charge me to get to that level of understanding in your church?
    We first must do an audit....step this way.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    I'm fairly sure that the European Commission and several medical regulators are going to be looking like chumps in the not too distant future.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,440
    edited February 2021
    DougSeal said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
    Yep - I accept that. The great rule for science, and especially biology, is it is complex. There are multiple factors at play. I think we are all desperate to see evidence of the the success of the vaccination programme coming through in the cases/deaths/admissions, but we need to be patient. The danger of the argument that cases are falling as so many have had it, is that that's been espoused before (London last year for instance) and shown not to be true (London late last year and into this year).

    Pretty sure that for some parts of the world, this explanation may be the bulk of the reason, and that could include SA.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    kle4 said:

    Richard Nixon must be wondering why he had to resign. Mitch McConnell must also be wondering why Nixon resigned.

    Aaron Burr must be wondering - "What did I do wrong again?"
    Aaron Burr was acquitted at HIS trial, with Chief Justice John Marshall as judge.
    Trump's going to be so lucky - the only president to be declared super duper innocent TWICE.
    Yep. The 'acquitted-after-a-witch-hunt-most' president of all time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kle4 said:

    Richard Nixon must be wondering why he had to resign. Mitch McConnell must also be wondering why Nixon resigned.

    Aaron Burr must be wondering - "What did I do wrong again?"
    Aaron Burr was acquitted at HIS trial, with Chief Justice John Marshall as judge.
    Trump's going to be so lucky - the only president to be declared super duper innocent TWICE.
    In impeachment trials (in US anyway) there is no such thing as an innocent or not guilty verdict.

    Just convicted versus not convicted. So calling You-Know-Who "innocent" after his (first) trial (or Andrew Johnson or Bill Clinton) is rhetoric NOT law.

    Surely few with all their marbles would consider ANY of the impeached POTUS trio to be "innocents"!
    I know, but I also know what Trump is going to claim afterwards.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,924
    edited February 2021
    The government's UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Brussels service has succumbed to ransomware.
    https://www.theregister.com/2021/02/01/ukri_ransomware_ukro_brussels/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,440
    I think the EU commission has had a shocking week, but I understand countries only using the AZ vaccine on their under 65's for now. Its not wrong to be cautious. If we generate good data in our Phase III+ trial (mass vaccination) then they can of course switch policy,
  • You’d feel like a real idiot if you’d suggested it was dodgy to your citizens wouldn’t you?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    A lot of European regulators and politicians are about to look very, very stupid and the only people paying the price for the anti-vaxx nonsense will be the European people.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
    Yep - I accept that. The great rule for science, and especially biology, is its is complex. There are multiple factors at play. I think we are all desperate to see evidence of the the success of the vaccination programme coming through in the cases/deaths/admissions, but we need to be patient. The danger of the argument that cases are falling as so many have had it, is that that's been espoused before (London last year for instance) and shown not to be true (London late last year and into this year).

    Pretty sure that for some parts of the world, this explanation may be the bulk of the reason, and that could include SA.
    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-south-africas-covid-lockdown-may-have-created-herd-immunity-12116494
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    For those interested, mum and dad's jab today was Pfizer – confirmed
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Mini-Trump is going to have a fun time trying to get his anti-vaxxer population onboard after his nonsense in the past few days....yes everybody, you must have your vaccination....but you said it didn't work...

    We need to build a wall and make them pay for it, to make sure we don't import their plague.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    I think the EU commission has had a shocking week, but I understand countries only using the AZ vaccine on their under 65's for now. Its not wrong to be cautious. If we generate good data in our Phase III+ trial (mass vaccination) then they can of course switch policy,
    I'd agree if the EU had the luxury of choice of what they offered. But that have a massive shortage of doses, and people are dying now.

    It is a judgment call, but in my view, a wrong one.
  • I think the EU commission has had a shocking week, but I understand countries only using the AZ vaccine on their under 65's for now. Its not wrong to be cautious. If we generate good data in our Phase III+ trial (mass vaccination) then they can of course switch policy,
    I’d be worried about the take up rate in the 50+ bracket...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    MaxPB said:

    Captain Tom was 101, we should celebrate what he achieved, not be sad that he's died.

    I agree. RIP.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    South Africa has shown a similar precipitous drop without vaccine and a lockdown that, while strict, is also places where social distancing is quite impossible.
    Yep - I accept that. The great rule for science, and especially biology, is its is complex. There are multiple factors at play. I think we are all desperate to see evidence of the the success of the vaccination programme coming through in the cases/deaths/admissions, but we need to be patient. The danger of the argument that cases are falling as so many have had it, is that that's been espoused before (London last year for instance) and shown not to be true (London late last year and into this year).

    Pretty sure that for some parts of the world, this explanation may be the bulk of the reason, and that could include SA.
    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-south-africas-covid-lockdown-may-have-created-herd-immunity-12116494
    I thought there was evidence of significant reinfection in SA?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,440
    TimT said:

    I think the EU commission has had a shocking week, but I understand countries only using the AZ vaccine on their under 65's for now. Its not wrong to be cautious. If we generate good data in our Phase III+ trial (mass vaccination) then they can of course switch policy,
    I'd agree if the EU had the luxury of choice of what they offered. But that have a massive shortage of doses, and people are dying now.

    It is a judgment call, but in my view, a wrong one.
    Yep - me too. I think they are wrong, but I understand the thought process.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    @rcs1000 must be feeling extremely smug about his GME bet!
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    maaarsh said:

    Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:


    Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
    The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
    Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks).
    We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
    Yep loads of good reasons for a steepening of the fall - NHS superspreaders vaccinated, most of the worst social distancers will already have copped it by now so we can assume the people catching it now are better behaved than earlier in the piece. And we're definitely at the stage where the 3rd Jan vaccine push will start to have an impact which will only grow.
    The South African curve is the same as ours, huge increase followed by huge decrease. I imagine its quite hard to socially distance in some of their poorer areas.
  • MaxPB said:

    @rcs1000 must be feeling extremely smug about his GME bet!

    I take it the bubble has burst?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    We're going to smash through the target, our two weekend days were close to the required rate, weekdays are going to be at least 150k over it everyday.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    Eh? This requires 2.5m per week. Last week, we did more than that. This week, we are doing more than last week.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    You mean counting illegal vaccinations???
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    When Sturgeon removes the saltires from her broadcasts she can talk
  • For those interested, mum and dad's jab today was Pfizer – confirmed

    Only the best for Anabobazina-Snrs.
  • For those interested, mum and dad's jab today was Pfizer – confirmed

    So was mine, here in sunny Cheltenham today.

    All very calm, efficient and orderly. The Brits really do some things rather well.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    England is comfortably ahead of target, should hit well before Valentine's day. No wonder you're starting to get stories of everyon vaccinated by May coming out.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MaxPB said:
    Some posters on here were pretty vocal against this weren't they

    Dare I ask, is this something else our scientists and government have got right.
  • BBC Figures on required rate...

    A total of 10,143,511 coronavirus jabs have been given in the UK so far, of which 9,646,715 were first doses, government figures show.

    The seven-day rolling average of first doses given in the UK is now 399,055.

    Based on the latest figures, an average of 411,791 first doses of vaccine would be needed each day in order to meet the Government's target of 15 million first doses by February 15.
  • I don't think the "reduction in transmission" mentioned means reduction in passing the virus to another. That wasn't studied (and could hardly be). In fact the study doesn't show significant reduction in asymptomatic infections, which is less good news for reducing R.

    But overall my thoughts after reading the paper is that the study is horribly underpowered for more than a simple overall vaccine effectiveness calculation. All this peering into dosage, interval between does, age stratification, symptomatic vs asymptomatic, could easily be looking at noise.

    --AS
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    TimT said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    Eh? This requires 2.5m per week. Last week, we did more than that. This week, we are doing more than last week.
    He was jesting I think!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    TimT said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    Eh? This requires 2.5m per week. Last week, we did more than that. This week, we are doing more than last week.
    MaxPB said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    We're going to smash through the target, our two weekend days were close to the required rate, weekdays are going to be at least 150k over it everyday.
    I came I saw, I upset two Boris enthusiasts with an attempt at light humour in a depressing Covid world. Time to exit again.

    Sorry.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    TimT said:

    I think the EU commission has had a shocking week, but I understand countries only using the AZ vaccine on their under 65's for now. Its not wrong to be cautious. If we generate good data in our Phase III+ trial (mass vaccination) then they can of course switch policy,
    I'd agree if the EU had the luxury of choice of what they offered. But that have a massive shortage of doses, and people are dying now.

    It is a judgment call, but in my view, a wrong one.
    Yep - me too. I think they are wrong, but I understand the thought process.
    If only I could shake the suspicion that they were just being spiteful arses
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    You mean counting illegal vaccinations???
    I think he's joking about the fudging on the testing capacity target last year.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    You mean counting illegal vaccinations???
    Stop the count!
  • Number 10 Downing Street will lower the flag to half mast in tribute to Captain Sir Tom Moore
  • The Yangster has picked up the COVID upon his return to NYC.

    https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1356636303929053187?s=20
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    TimT said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    Eh? This requires 2.5m per week. Last week, we did more than that. This week, we are doing more than last week.
    MaxPB said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    We're going to smash through the target, our two weekend days were close to the required rate, weekdays are going to be at least 150k over it everyday.
    I came I saw, I upset two Boris enthusiasts with an attempt at light humour in a depressing Covid world. Time to exit again.

    Sorry.
    Not so much a Boris fan than a fan of some of the things the UK has done pretty well in the COVID crisis, and a fan of highlighting the good things when overall things are depressing, rather than tearing down hope.
  • Floater said:

    MaxPB said:
    Some posters on here were pretty vocal against this weren't they

    Dare I ask, is this something else our scientists and government have got right.
    How can Macron look at himself in the mirror
  • Can we now officially say that our studies suggest it is not safe to inflict Macron or UVdL on the over 65s?
  • Floater said:

    MaxPB said:
    Some posters on here were pretty vocal against this weren't they

    Dare I ask, is this something else our scientists and government have got right.
    How can Macron look at himself in the mirror
    He often can't, he's too short to see his reflection in most of them....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    maaarsh said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    England is comfortably ahead of target, should hit well before Valentine's day. No wonder you're starting to get stories of everyon vaccinated by May coming out.
    The entire UK vaccine cohort is 52,000,000 by my maths... so...

    One jab for all by May Day Bank Holiday

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 52,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 41,856,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 91

    Required rate/day 459,962

    That's quite a bit tougher to do, but you have to say it's possible...
  • If anyone is still interested in the London mayorals, I understand CCHQ has once again demonstrated their confidence in Shaun Bailey today by laying off all the local campaign managers in London they were funding.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    MexicanPete said "I came I saw, I upset two Boris enthusiasts"

    I wonder how you could put that in the Latin of J. Caesar. Reginald Foster could have done it ll. Time to get out my school Latin texts and dictionary.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    Eh? This requires 2.5m per week. Last week, we did more than that. This week, we are doing more than last week.
    MaxPB said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    We're going to smash through the target, our two weekend days were close to the required rate, weekdays are going to be at least 150k over it everyday.
    I came I saw, I upset two Boris enthusiasts with an attempt at light humour in a depressing Covid world. Time to exit again.

    Sorry.
    Not so much a Boris fan than a fan of some of the things the UK has done pretty well in the COVID crisis, and a fan of highlighting the good things when overall things are depressing, rather than tearing down hope.
    I have previously confirmed how impressed I am by vaccine provision. It really has been a triumph for those who have implemented the provision. The Government too, requires credit for overseeing procurement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    If anyone is still interested in the London mayorals, I understand CCHQ has once again demonstrated their confidence in Shaun Bailey today by laying off all the local campaign managers in London they were funding.

    I'm very interested. It's always fun to see a tight contest for second place.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    BBC Figures on required rate...

    A total of 10,143,511 coronavirus jabs have been given in the UK so far, of which 9,646,715 were first doses, government figures show.

    The seven-day rolling average of first doses given in the UK is now 399,055.

    Based on the latest figures, an average of 411,791 first doses of vaccine would be needed each day in order to meet the Government's target of 15 million first doses by February 15.

    I think they have succumbed to the Fence Post Error.

    There are 13 count-days remaining I think not 12 (we count 14 Feb's on 15 Feb).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    maaarsh said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    England is comfortably ahead of target, should hit well before Valentine's day. No wonder you're starting to get stories of everyon vaccinated by May coming out.
    The entire UK vaccine cohort is 52,000,000 by my maths... so...

    One jab for all by May Day Bank Holiday

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 52,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 41,856,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 91

    Required rate/day 459,962

    That's quite a bit tougher to do, but you have to say it's possible...
    That's first jab capacity, we also need to factor in the need from April to do a significant number of second doses at the same time so overall capacity from the middle of March onwards will have to be doubled for a bit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    Can we now officially say that our studies suggest it is not safe to inflict Macron or UVdL on the over 65s?

    Should we try a course of UVdL on Piers Corbyn?

    Not sure of the ethics of that....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited February 2021

    There is, presumably, an established emergency use authorisation option for approving medicines because it is recognised that there are sometimes emergencies that require a different approach.

    It's bizarre that the EMA/EU didn't consider this pandemic a sufficient emergency to use emergency procedures, and incorrect to call it cutting corners.
    I don't begrudge, in principle, a regulator deciding to take a more cautious approach on things with the available data, even if the urgency of the situation might call for a more bold approach.

    But politicians and officials spreading outright misinformation about efficacy and procedures for no reason other than it is politically convenient for them is not merely incorrect, it is abhorrent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    EU remains determined to kill its oldies.....
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited February 2021

    maaarsh said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    England is comfortably ahead of target, should hit well before Valentine's day. No wonder you're starting to get stories of everyon vaccinated by May coming out.
    The entire UK vaccine cohort is 52,000,000 by my maths... so...

    One jab for all by May Day Bank Holiday

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 52,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 41,856,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 91

    Required rate/day 459,962

    That's quite a bit tougher to do, but you have to say it's possible...
    It feels to me like the 22 Feb “plan to get out of lock down” we’ve been promised will include a new series of linked targets so people can see a countdown. A countdown that miraculously finishes in time for polling day.

    “Beat the virus. Build back better”? Something like that, building on the known slogans, I suspect. Plus an announcement of something for NHS and care staff.

    Where’s a value proxy for “Tories do so well they could have won London with a decent candidate”?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,671
    edited February 2021

    maaarsh said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    England is comfortably ahead of target, should hit well before Valentine's day. No wonder you're starting to get stories of everyon vaccinated by May coming out.
    The entire UK vaccine cohort is 52,000,000 by my maths... so...

    One jab for all by May Day Bank Holiday

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 52,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 41,856,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 91

    Required rate/day 459,962

    That's quite a bit tougher to do, but you have to say it's possible...
    If the supply is available, I think we'll do that easily. Vaccine centres are _still_ being built.

    I reckon there will be a 1m day in the next fortnight.

    2nd jabs will start April but will only have to match earlier capacity.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited February 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    Richard Nixon must be wondering why he had to resign. Mitch McConnell must also be wondering why Nixon resigned.

    Aaron Burr must be wondering - "What did I do wrong again?"
    Aaron Burr was acquitted at HIS trial, with Chief Justice John Marshall as judge.
    Trump's going to be so lucky - the only president to be declared super duper innocent TWICE.
    In impeachment trials (in US anyway) there is no such thing as an innocent or not guilty verdict.

    Just convicted versus not convicted. So calling You-Know-Who "innocent" after his (first) trial (or Andrew Johnson or Bill Clinton) is rhetoric NOT law.

    Surely few with all their marbles would consider ANY of the impeached POTUS trio to be "innocents"!
    Also true of all English criminal trials, and probably US ones.
    Well we have the Woolmington principle which is more than just mere rhetoric in the common law.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    England is comfortably ahead of target, should hit well before Valentine's day. No wonder you're starting to get stories of everyon vaccinated by May coming out.
    The entire UK vaccine cohort is 52,000,000 by my maths... so...

    One jab for all by May Day Bank Holiday

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 52,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 41,856,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 91

    Required rate/day 459,962

    That's quite a bit tougher to do, but you have to say it's possible...
    That's first jab capacity, we also need to factor in the need from April to do a significant number of second doses at the same time so overall capacity from the middle of March onwards will have to be doubled for a bit.
    Very true, you are right.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kle4 said:

    There is, presumably, an established emergency use authorisation option for approving medicines because it is recognised that there are sometimes emergencies that require a different approach.

    It's bizarre that the EMA/EU didn't consider this pandemic a sufficient emergency to use emergency procedures, and incorrect to call it cutting corners.
    I don't begrudge, in principle, a regulator deciding to take a more cautious approach on things with the available data, even if the urgency of the situation might call for a more bold approach.

    But politicians and officials spreading outright misinformation about efficacy and procedures for no reason other than it is politically convenient for them is not merely incorrect, it is abhorrent.
    The question in my mind is did the EMA consider additional information not available to the MHRA? If not, the charge of cutting corners is even more bizarre.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    maaarsh said:

    Vaxometer

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 4,865,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 13

    Required rate/day 373,576



    If it looks like we might just miss the target, will putting self-administered doses to cover the shortfall in the post count?
    England is comfortably ahead of target, should hit well before Valentine's day. No wonder you're starting to get stories of everyon vaccinated by May coming out.
    The entire UK vaccine cohort is 52,000,000 by my maths... so...

    One jab for all by May Day Bank Holiday

    All doses, all four nations

    Target 52,000,000
    Thru 10,143,511
    Remaining 41,856,489
    Yesterday's total 352,935
    Days to target 91

    Required rate/day 459,962

    That's quite a bit tougher to do, but you have to say it's possible...
    If the supply is available, I think we'll do that easily. Vaccine centres are _still_ being built.

    I reckon there will be a 1m day in the next fortnight.
    The 3 main issues for the UK program are

    1) Supply
    2) Supply
    3) Supply

    While no formal data has been presented, all the information I have come across is that vaccination centres are running at less than full capacity, due to the amount of vaccine they have.
This discussion has been closed.