Next week’s Trump impeachment vote: Which way will McConnell vote? – politicalbetting.com
The above clip of Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, speaking to the Senate on the last day of the Trump presidency is a possible good pointer to a new market that Smarkets have up on what he specifically is going to do in the vote next week.
That's really not true. Pfizer's vaccine is now being manufactured under license by Novartis and Sanofi, and that's in addition to their own production facilties. Bayer has started manufacturing CureVac under license. AstraZeneca has plants in the EU making their vaccine.
The EU will be a net exporter of vaccines - I would reckon - by early in Q2.
Yeah, I'm with Smithson Jnr on this. The GOP - or at least the remaining sane parts of the GOP - may not want to act in a way that could be portrayed as being supportive of those who attacked the Capitol building, but they want even less to be portrayed as anti-Trump.
Part of the problem is that the Dems have rushed this. They should have held off while investigations continued.
Another part is that they shouldn't have impeached Trump last time, on frankly pretty tenuous grounds.
I suspect there will be a nontrivial amount of people who confound your view. I mean, lots of people never go to pubs and restaurants in normal times, so might well be agitating their continued closure.
My childless brother has been endlessly lobbying for schools to be closed, since well, this thing started. Which I found annoying, but I bit my tongue.
Not abandoned. Moved to fighting covid variants on the grounds that we have more than enough already for the original strain.
Hopefully they will return to their work on mRNA tech as the UK is clearly behind on this and they appeared to have found an interesting development whereby their approach didn't need the -10000000 degrees storage and was more robust in general against things like being knocked in transport.
That's really not true. Pfizer's vaccine is now being manufactured under license by Novartis and Sanofi, and that's in addition to their own production facilties. Bayer has started manufacturing CureVac under license. AstraZeneca has plants in the EU making their vaccine.
The EU will be a net exporter of vaccines - I would reckon - by early in Q2.
Ahem!
Strictly true right now - they need all of their own for their own people, me included. Q2 is some way off unless you think it makes sense to forecast a vaccine war in April. I suppose we could thank him for the early warning. Not sure what Clausewitz would make of it as a strategy.
By the way the Australians got rid of their lockdown after they got rid of CV19 (as did the Chinese and the New Zealanders and Hong Kong). What is it you think is different about the UK that makes the politicians uniquely desperate to do something incredibly unpopular?"
I think that my concern is based on the prevailing notion that lockdown = good, freedoms = bad.
I`m worried that a few dynamics will remain in play to bolster the prevailing view for longer than people think.
For example: opposition parties making political capital out of every relaxation that the government suggests; devolved parliaments doing similarly; the government itself being populists and not leaders; Sunak extending financial support again (perhaps even broadening it); the media`s constant presentation of statistics either wrongly or in the worst light; stories like "he had the vaccine and still caught Covid" do the rounds; and "she can`t have a vaccine for x reason and we still have to protect her"; "the sun is shining now so lockdown is not so bad again and I`m off work being paid" etc etc.
As I say, I hope you are right but I think my concern is justified.
Just seen this, probably already discussed on here:
"UK compromising safety over Covid-19 vaccine, says Ursula von der Leyen
Britain failed its “gigantic responsibility” to ensure the proper safety of vaccines and the European Union should be proud of its strategy, Ursula von der Leyen said today."
Unfortunately I think when that statement came out and that the family were being allowed to be with him, it was clear where it was heading.
Very sad....especially the unfortunate series of events that meant that he didn't / couldn't get vaccinated. Although he got his bucket list wish which is great.
Not abandoned. Pivoted to fighting covid variants on the grounds that we have more than enough vaccines already for the original strain.
I believe it was on the grounds that several parts of their approach were experimental, and therefore development would almost certainly take longer than other approaches.
Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.
Vaccinations of friends:- Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects. Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects. Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).
I did not know that -- I thought the argument was (unlike the other exempt islands) Ynys Mon was connected to the mainland by a bridge and so the exemption did not apply.
If so, that is good news for the Tories & PC in Ynys Mon -- as the Labour stronghold of Bangor cannot be joined with Ynys Mon to make a reasonably safe Labour seat.
Though the current Tory MP richly deserves the boot, the seat will stay a 3 way marginal.
Yeah, I'm with Smithson Jnr on this. The GOP - or at least the remaining sane parts of the GOP - may not want to act in a way that could be portrayed as being supportive of those who attacked the Capitol building, but they want even less to be portrayed as anti-Trump.
Part of the problem is that the Dems have rushed this. They should have held off while investigations continued.
Another part is that they shouldn't have impeached Trump last time, on frankly pretty tenuous grounds.
They got carried away last time. I think the rush argument this time is harder, as the more time goes on the more they see the political cost of not supporting Trump and start to act in short term interest.
The decision is ultimately political, more investigative time would not have helped - most Republicans have already decided it's wrong on a process level.
Lesson - commit crimes in your lame duck period, and no one will care.
Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.
Vaccinations of friends:- Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects. Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects. Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).
Two family members got AZ today from centres that appear to have been exclusively doing Pfizer up to then.
Shortages? Or government going safety first just in case the EU decide to throw another Cartman tantrum?
Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.
Vaccinations of friends:- Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects. Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects. Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).
Two family members got AZ today from centres that appear to have been exclusively doing Pfizer up to then.
Shortages? Or government going safety first just in case the EU decide to throw another Cartman tantrum?
Well, we know we can't trust them so that would make sense
Speaking of the Daily Mail (eg @FrancisUrquhart's link) their web site is getting harder and harder to read with all the pop-up videos and adverts. Guido's is even worse. I guess in the short term it brings in the moolah but, well, perhaps they follow Keynes on the long term.
Friend (66) has had her appointment by post yesterday for her jag at the Louisa Jordan on Thursday. She just received an email saying she must book her appointment plus second one after 4 weeks within 12 hours otherwise they'd be lost, please enter your credit/debit card details etc. She'd probably have realised it was a scam even if she hadn't already had her appointment but still..
I did not know that -- I thought the argument was (unlike the other exempt islands) Ynys Mon was connected to the mainland by a bridge and so the exemption did not apply.
If so, that is good news for the Tories & PC in Ynys Mon -- as the Labour stronghold of Bangor cannot be joined with Ynys Mon to make a reasonably safe Labour seat.
Though the current Tory MP richly deserves the boot, the seat will stay a 3 way marginal.
All the island exemptions should be scrapped now we don't need to conciliate the LDs.
If you ignore the test rise and believe the rate of case decline has stalled, that matches with ZOE stall last week, but has since accelerated significantly over the weekend so should see the case fall pick up again shortly in the official stats
One thing you can definitely say about Captain Moore - he certainly made the case against not worrying about the (Covid related) deaths of the elderly not making much of a difference. Probably achieved more in his 101st year than many of us will in their lifetimes...
Speaking of the Daily Mail (eg @FrancisUrquhart's link) their web site is getting harder and harder to read with all the pop-up videos and adverts. Guido's is even worse. I guess in the short term it brings in the moolah but, well, perhaps they follow Keynes on the long term.
Along with the Express, the Mail's website has joined the list of sites I don't bother going to. Partly what you said, partly the content is rarely worth the effort.
Yeah, I'm with Smithson Jnr on this. The GOP - or at least the remaining sane parts of the GOP - may not want to act in a way that could be portrayed as being supportive of those who attacked the Capitol building, but they want even less to be portrayed as anti-Trump.
Part of the problem is that the Dems have rushed this. They should have held off while investigations continued.
Another part is that they shouldn't have impeached Trump last time, on frankly pretty tenuous grounds.
I'm not convinced impeachment last time was a mistake. Actually in a parallel universe where they didn't impeach him last time then Trump may have won the election.
Logic: Trump was obviously conspiring to take down Biden with the Hunter Biden nonsense. This conspiracy was revealed and Trumps corruption in dealing with Ukraine was revealed. By doing impeachment this story was aired to everyone. Then during the election the Trumpists "revealed" the Hunter Biden allegations, the dodgy laptop and all that other nonsense. But much to Trumps obvious chargrin the Hunter story refused to take off. After the impeachment it was an old story done to death. Had it not been for impeachment this story might have taken off. Been like "her emails". It wouldn't have taken a dramatic swing for Trump to have won re-election.
Speaking of the Daily Mail (eg @FrancisUrquhart's link) their web site is getting harder and harder to read with all the pop-up videos and adverts. Guido's is even worse. I guess in the short term it brings in the moolah but, well, perhaps they follow Keynes on the long term.
Along with the Express, the Mail's website has joined the list of sites I don't bother going to. Partly what you said, partly the content is rarely worth the effort.
Out of interest, have you replaced them with others, or just narrowed the field?
Speaking of the Daily Mail (eg @FrancisUrquhart's link) their web site is getting harder and harder to read with all the pop-up videos and adverts. Guido's is even worse. I guess in the short term it brings in the moolah but, well, perhaps they follow Keynes on the long term.
Along with the Express, the Mail's website has joined the list of sites I don't bother going to. Partly what you said, partly the content is rarely worth the effort.
Actually during the pandemic the Mail have been pretty good at highlighting new academic research. Their take on it not necessarily, but they pretty much always provide the link to the source, which has been a lot better than nearly all the other newspapers.
I did not know that -- I thought the argument was (unlike the other exempt islands) Ynys Mon was connected to the mainland by a bridge and so the exemption did not apply.
If so, that is good news for the Tories & PC in Ynys Mon -- as the Labour stronghold of Bangor cannot be joined with Ynys Mon to make a reasonably safe Labour seat.
Though the current Tory MP richly deserves the boot, the seat will stay a 3 way marginal.
All the island exemptions should be scrapped now we don't need to conciliate the LDs.
Was it to conciliate them? The exempted areas are currently 2 Tory MPs (though 1 was Labour) and an SNP MP
Of course the UK has not put "all its eggs" in the AZ basket.....
There is something slightly mad about using scarce vaccine on the 60 and under population, when the deaths are mostly in the age groups above that. It's not a total waste of time, as hopefully transmission will be reduced, but it sure as hell won't save as many lives.
Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.
Vaccinations of friends:- Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects. Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects. Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).
Two family members got AZ today from centres that appear to have been exclusively doing Pfizer up to then.
Shortages? Or government going safety first just in case the EU decide to throw another Cartman tantrum?
Or coincidence? In LA, the vaccine centers don't know on a day-to-day basis which vaccine type will arrive.
100 years old and a hero to the end. That's made me sad but it was a very good innings; it won't be much comfort but his family should be so very proud of him.
Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:
Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
The prediction from people like Feigl-Ding and the Danes (no, not a progressive rock group) was the exact opposite though. I wonder when we'll know for certain.
Given most GOP voters oppose Trump's impeachment it is hard to see how McConnell can stay Minority Leader if he votes to convict so he would have to retire after
Just seen this, probably already discussed on here:
"UK compromising safety over Covid-19 vaccine, says Ursula von der Leyen
Britain failed its “gigantic responsibility” to ensure the proper safety of vaccines and the European Union should be proud of its strategy, Ursula von der Leyen said today."
Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.
Vaccinations of friends:- Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects. Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects. Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).
Two family members got AZ today from centres that appear to have been exclusively doing Pfizer up to then.
Shortages? Or government going safety first just in case the EU decide to throw another Cartman tantrum?
So far from people I know of vaccinated, all the ones in London got Pfizer and all the ones elsewhere got Oxford.
Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.
Vaccinations of friends:- Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects. Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects. Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).
Two family members got AZ today from centres that appear to have been exclusively doing Pfizer up to then.
Shortages? Or government going safety first just in case the EU decide to throw another Cartman tantrum?
Or coincidence? In LA, the vaccine centers don't know on a day-to-day basis which vaccine type will arrive.
It is also another possibility.
Although I know for certain one of the centres, it has been Pfizer basically every day since it opened, because one of my family members, all their friends message each other about when they were getting it, what they got, and of course all the local gossip.
He'll vote to acquit. Because he doesn't want to lose his role as Senate Minority Leader.
Yes, wiht the excuse that the trial is unconstitutional. The strategy is clear.
If the Dems were smart they would have found a way to force the Supreme Court to rule on the question one way or another.
How do congressional Democrats (or anyone else for that matter) "force" SCOTUS to make a ruling, on this or anything? I mean, from perspective of US constitutional law & practice?
Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:
Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks). We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
Of course the UK has not put "all its eggs" in the AZ basket.....
There is something slightly mad about using scarce vaccine on the 60 and under population, when the deaths are mostly in the age groups above that. It's not a total waste of time, as hopefully transmission will be reduced, but it sure as hell won't save as many lives.
Friend (66) has had her appointment by post yesterday for her jag at the Louisa Jordan on Thursday. She just received an email saying she must book her appointment plus second one after 4 weeks within 12 hours otherwise they'd be lost, please enter your credit/debit card details etc. She'd probably have realised it was a scam even if she hadn't already had her appointment but still..
I partly admire the ability of these scammers to find an angle to exploit so quickly.
I partly want them to be found and left in an underground, sound-proofed room with a bunch of pissed-up squaddies.....whose grannies they scammed.
Very sad - but with a 100 year old hardly unexpected. Overall, deaths are starting to fall a little more rapidly:
Cases and admissions dropping like a stone now.
The sustained steep case drop has to be a feature of the new variant, infect quickly, decline quickly.
Not like anything else might be contributing... (e.g. vaccination of frontline NHS, so fewer hospital acquired infections, vaccination ~ 20% of the adult population, being in lockdown for four weeks). We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
Yep loads of good reasons for a steepening of the fall - NHS superspreaders vaccinated, most of the worst social distancers will already have copped it by now so we can assume the people catching it now are better behaved than earlier in the piece. And we're definitely at the stage where the 3rd Jan vaccine push will start to have an impact which will only grow.
Just seen this, probably already discussed on here:
"UK compromising safety over Covid-19 vaccine, says Ursula von der Leyen
Britain failed its “gigantic responsibility” to ensure the proper safety of vaccines and the European Union should be proud of its strategy, Ursula von der Leyen said today."
It’s a fairly brave statement to make when the U.K. is starting to see the (positive) results of a 9m person trial.... She’s going to look (even more) foolish.
Friend (66) has had her appointment by post yesterday for her jag at the Louisa Jordan on Thursday. She just received an email saying she must book her appointment plus second one after 4 weeks within 12 hours otherwise they'd be lost, please enter your credit/debit card details etc. She'd probably have realised it was a scam even if she hadn't already had her appointment but still..
I partly admire the ability of these scammers to find an angle to exploit so quickly.
I partly want them to be found and left in an underground, sound-proofed room with a bunch of pissed-up squaddies.....whose grannies they scammed.
I always wonder what good genuine business ideas they could come up with if they really put their minds to it. Who knows they might well actually be worth more than these scams.
Comments
The EU will be a net exporter of vaccines - I would reckon - by early in Q2.
He'll vote to acquit. Because he doesn't want to lose his role as Senate Minority Leader.
Not sure but he is a fantastic actor so I'm with him all the way.
Edit: O'Connell
That's my zinger out of the window.
But Jack O'Connell is still a great actor.
Part of the problem is that the Dems have rushed this. They should have held off while investigations continued.
Another part is that they shouldn't have impeached Trump last time, on frankly pretty tenuous grounds.
If the Dems were smart they would have found a way to force the Supreme Court to rule on the question one way or another.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9214339/Coronavirus-vaccines-tweaked-spark-immunity-against-new-variants-just-three-weeks.html
I suspect there will be a nontrivial amount of people who confound your view. I mean, lots of people never go to pubs and restaurants in normal times, so might well be agitating their continued closure.
My childless brother has been endlessly lobbying for schools to be closed, since well, this thing started. Which I found annoying, but I bit my tongue.
Strictly true right now - they need all of their own for their own people, me included. Q2 is some way off unless you think it makes sense to forecast a vaccine war in April. I suppose we could thank him for the early warning. Not sure what Clausewitz would make of it as a strategy.
rcs1000 said:
» show previous quotes
"Do that.
By the way the Australians got rid of their lockdown after they got rid of CV19 (as did the Chinese and the New Zealanders and Hong Kong). What is it you think is different about the UK that makes the politicians uniquely desperate to do something incredibly unpopular?"
I think that my concern is based on the prevailing notion that lockdown = good, freedoms = bad.
I`m worried that a few dynamics will remain in play to bolster the prevailing view for longer than people think.
For example: opposition parties making political capital out of every relaxation that the government suggests; devolved parliaments doing similarly; the government itself being populists and not leaders; Sunak extending financial support again (perhaps even broadening it); the media`s constant presentation of statistics either wrongly or in the worst light; stories like "he had the vaccine and still caught Covid" do the rounds; and "she can`t have a vaccine for x reason and we still have to protect her"; "the sun is shining now so lockdown is not so bad again and I`m off work being paid" etc etc.
As I say, I hope you are right but I think my concern is justified.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/feb/02/french-football-crisis-deepens-tv-rights-offers-fail-to-reach-reserve-price-ligue-1-2
"UK compromising safety over Covid-19 vaccine, says Ursula von der Leyen
Britain failed its “gigantic responsibility” to ensure the proper safety of vaccines and the European Union should be proud of its strategy, Ursula von der Leyen said today."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-compromising-safety-over-covid-19-vaccine-says-ursula-von-der-leyen-lbk60pzlf
Very sad....especially the unfortunate series of events that meant that he didn't / couldn't get vaccinated. Although he got his bucket list wish which is great.
Sainsbury's -- council handing out free masks outside. Running out of Coke, cat food and fish. Fruit and veg hit and miss, possibly Brexit related as British, South African and Chilean goods were there.
Vaccinations of friends:-
Person A, AZ/Oxford -- no queue; jabbed on arrival an hour early; no side-effects.
Person B, AZ/Oxford -- long but fast-moving queue; jabbed after 15 mins; 2 days of side-effects.
Person C, Sputnik -- walk-in centre in Moscow (not rationed by age or occupation).
I did not know that -- I thought the argument was (unlike the other exempt islands) Ynys Mon was connected to the mainland by a bridge and so the exemption did not apply.
If so, that is good news for the Tories & PC in Ynys Mon -- as the Labour stronghold of Bangor cannot be joined with Ynys Mon to make a reasonably safe Labour seat.
Though the current Tory MP richly deserves the boot, the seat will stay a 3 way marginal.
The decision is ultimately political, more investigative time would not have helped - most Republicans have already decided it's wrong on a process level.
Lesson - commit crimes in your lame duck period, and no one will care.
Time for another new target then. Do they have a target date for all nine of the JCVI priority groups?
Shortages? Or government going safety first just in case the EU decide to throw another Cartman tantrum?
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1356632025395056642?s=20
Of course the UK has not put "all its eggs" in the AZ basket.....
If you ignore the test rise and believe the rate of case decline has stalled, that matches with ZOE stall last week, but has since accelerated significantly over the weekend so should see the case fall pick up again shortly in the official stats
Plus ca change etc...
Logic:
Trump was obviously conspiring to take down Biden with the Hunter Biden nonsense.
This conspiracy was revealed and Trumps corruption in dealing with Ukraine was revealed.
By doing impeachment this story was aired to everyone.
Then during the election the Trumpists "revealed" the Hunter Biden allegations, the dodgy laptop and all that other nonsense.
But much to Trumps obvious chargrin the Hunter story refused to take off.
After the impeachment it was an old story done to death.
Had it not been for impeachment this story might have taken off. Been like "her emails".
It wouldn't have taken a dramatic swing for Trump to have won re-election.
Nearly all jabs going forward in over 70s too methinks.
I guess there's going to be one hell of a final collection.
100 years old and a hero to the end. That's made me sad but it was a very good innings; it won't be much comfort but his family should be so very proud of him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJhyrkkL-cU&feature=emb_logo
If cases are subsequently steady or increasing then that will provide a breeding ground for bad variants.
We need to be in a position where children are at school AND cases are still falling.
That might need a few more vaccinations (especially in Scotland).
We don't want any more lockdowns after this one.
Although I know for certain one of the centres, it has been Pfizer basically every day since it opened, because one of my family members, all their friends message each other about when they were getting it, what they got, and of course all the local gossip.
Has there been any independent monitoring or verification of the data like there is with western trials?
We don't really get to see how the cases fell in April/May, as the testing wasn't available. I'd love to be able to compare.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1356641023506661377?s=20
From case data
From hospitalisations
I partly want them to be found and left in an underground, sound-proofed room with a bunch of pissed-up squaddies.....whose grannies they scammed.
RIP