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Jupiter in eclipse? Macron looks a very weak odds-on favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    WTFH has Trump got to do with anything?

    Macron is still the President of Britain's nearest neighbour. Just yesterday he did a massive, dirty shit right on top of the most important vaccine of the lot, and didn't even bother to wash his disgusting hands afterwards.
    The point is that if you do not have a solid track record of calling out Donald Trump for 5 years of relentless bullshitting and bigotry your effectiveness in calling out instances of it now in other politicians is hampered.
  • Implying that I consider Macron to now be at Trump's level. I don't need to have been criticising Trump constantly for that to be valid.
    Nevertheless only one of them seems to have made a vein in your prolapse burst, and in a very short period. I'm sensing that vein may have been ready to blow for quite a long time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    Over the years PB dumped a million tons of ordure all over Trump. It wasn't an expl;sive one off, because Trump was consistently repugnant and outrageous over his entire ghastly presidency

    Macron has in the past been a bit annoying and vain, but generally quite competent and sane, Yesterday, however, he suddenly evolved into a psychotic idiot hell-bent on destroying Europe's vaccination drive, and killing loads of his own citizens, while scaring millions more

    So yes, the reaction has been more spectacular, because it is so sudden and unexpected. And so very very dangerous
    The only thing missing from his outburst would have claimed that it uses aborted foetuses and contains pork...

    Just to make sure the religious don't get tempted by the British vaccine.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    Charles said:

    No more expenses-paid trips to Brussels sounds like a pro not a con!
    Brussels is a bit boring, agreed, but the Belgians eat well and have a unique beer culture that has managed not to get trashed by multinationals (so far). If you like that sort if thing, of course.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,972

    Whether they could make it or not, the dubbed French version is extremely popular in France, so perhaps they have more of a sense of humour about it than you give them credit for.
    How did they dub "good moaning?"

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    I hope they are right but I fear they will struggle to reach that in France particularly given that half the population say they won't take the jab. Does anyone know what resistance to vaccination is like in any other countries apart from France and the UK? It is something that might become importance as we get towards the end of the year.
    Asia essentially off limits until late 2022; Africa until 2023. That's a hell of long time for new mutations to take hold.

    We are going to have to get vast amounts of vaccine produced and in arms outside America/Europe, as a global priority.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    kle4 said:

    I don't think you are in a minority at all, in fact I think you're in the vast majority - there is just a question over what 'adequately vaccinated' means and therefore when we are in a position to help others.
    That's a more interesting question.

    There are still unanswered questions over the long term potency of the vaccines currently being administered. Will the same protection exist in 3 months or 6 months? Hopefully we can get the second vaccination programme rolling as soon as possible to improve our overall protection.

    It's entirely likely the vaccines themselves will improve with time and it may be we'll only need vaccination every two years or perhaps every five for example. For now, we don't really know if the vaccinations being provided now will still provide immunity by the autumn.

    This is the problem - we may have to keep vaccinating as the immunity of those vaccinated at the start of the process fades and we need to start the whole process again.

    I don't know and this is a question to which nobody seems to have an answer.

    The issue of providing vaccines to others is part of that uncertainty - I'd still like us to be involved in getting the first vaccination to the poorest countries but our population must come first - the intention can be expressed and the logistics prepared so we can move quickly as and when.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Who goes to a warehouse orgy in winter?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    How Politico is explaining the EU's vaccine move:

    The EU today passed a regulation instructing its customs authorities to block all COVID-19 vaccine exports to some 100 countries worldwide, unless they receive an export authorization from national governments in the EU.

    EU officials told POLITICO the regulation would be published today and enter into force on Saturday.

    "Today, the European Commission has adopted an implementing regulation making the export of certain products subject to an export authorization," trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis said at a press conference. "The challenges we now face left us with no other choice but to act."


    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-imposes-export-controls-on-rich-nations-from-saturday/
  • kinabalu said:

    The point is that if you do not have a solid track record of calling out Donald Trump for 5 years of relentless bullshitting and bigotry your effectiveness in calling out instances of it now in other politicians is hampered.
    I have a rock solid record and I say Macron and the Commission are becoming as bad as Trump this week. Their attacks on AZN are as hate filled, fallacious and rotten as Trumps attacks on Dominion.

    If you can't call out Trumpism when it is on our own doorstep then you lose all integrity. This week you have lost your integrity.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    stodge said:

    I may be in a minority on here but my view is once we have adequately vaccinated our population, we should be leading the way in getting the vaccine to the poorest parts of Africa

    This is the kind of thing I want our armed forces to be involved with and it would be a superb example of what "Global Britain" is all about.
    Not in a minority at all just rather late to say it. However, quite a few are of the view that vaccines should be sent to the EU first to help them out. My personal view would stick with the world's poorest.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,490

    Brussels is a bit boring, agreed, but the Belgians eat well and have a unique beer culture that has managed not to get trashed by multinationals (so far). If you like that sort if thing, of course.

    Brussels airport as a hub is soooooo much nicer than Schipol

    We have an office in the nice part of Brussels, but all my time there is spent on a grungy industrial estate
  • kinabalu said:

    The point is that if you do not have a solid track record of calling out Donald Trump for 5 years of relentless bullshitting and bigotry your effectiveness in calling out instances of it now in other politicians is hampered.
    I'm quite happy for you and TUD and anyone else to think my "effectiveness" is "hampered". Macron remains an imbecilic and dangerous cunt.
  • stodge said:

    That's a more interesting question.

    There are still unanswered questions over the long term potency of the vaccines currently being administered. Will the same protection exist in 3 months or 6 months? Hopefully we can get the second vaccination programme rolling as soon as possible to improve our overall protection.

    It's entirely likely the vaccines themselves will improve with time and it may be we'll only need vaccination every two years or perhaps every five for example. For now, we don't really know if the vaccinations being provided now will still provide immunity by the autumn.

    This is the problem - we may have to keep vaccinating as the immunity of those vaccinated at the start of the process fades and we need to start the whole process again.

    I don't know and this is a question to which nobody seems to have an answer.

    The issue of providing vaccines to others is part of that uncertainty - I'd still like us to be involved in getting the first vaccination to the poorest countries but our population must come first - the intention can be expressed and the logistics prepared so we can move quickly as and when.
    I think it is a near certainly that as soon as we finish by the autumn, the oldies will be getting jabbed again for the winter with an updated version.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,284

    Who goes to a warehouse orgy in winter?

    People without central heating.
  • I have a rock solid record and I say Macron and the Commission are becoming as bad as Trump this week. Their attacks on AZN are as hate filled, fallacious and rotten as Trumps attacks on Dominion.

    If you can't call out Trumpism when it is on our own doorstep then you lose all integrity. This week you have lost your integrity.
    Lol!
  • Nevertheless only one of them seems to have made a vein in your prolapse burst, and in a very short period. I'm sensing that vein may have been ready to blow for quite a long time.
    Only one of them is publicly shitting on a vaccine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,409
    edited January 2021

    Where would you recommend at this time of year?
    Hotels, most of them are closed so you can be more noisier and messier than in usual times.

    There's nothing as bad as making eye contact with the cleaner the morning after the night before.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    I think it is a near certainly that as soon as we finish by the autumn, the oldies will be getting jabbed again for the winter with an updated version.
    There are two separate issues.

    - Will further jabs be necessary to prevent future infection?
    - Will further jabs be necessary to prevent future serious infection?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Another welcome climbdown by the EU.

    Ursula surely has to fall on her sword so we can all move on
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Brussels is a bit boring, agreed, but the Belgians eat well and have a unique beer culture that has managed not to get trashed by multinationals (so far). If you like that sort if thing, of course.
    Waterzooi and kriek. Yum.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I am surprised how slow China is being. They have 2 vaccines they claim work and huge resources to manufacture and have shown when they need to do millions of tests in a few days they just order all their people to do so, no ifs, no buts.

    I expected the same to occur with vaccinations.
    No ifs, yes butts, actually

    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210128/china-using-anal-swabs-for-covid-testing
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Where would you recommend at this time of year?
    Well, it's New Zealand's summer, they've got no Covid and a shitload of sheep.....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,466

    An expert on French TV ratings now, is there no end to your areas of expertise?!
    What were its viewing figures?
    No idea, but you don't keep purchasing 9 series comprising 85 episodes if nobody's watching.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,827
    alex_ said:

    There are two separate issues.

    - Will further jabs be necessary to prevent future infection?
    - Will further jabs be necessary to prevent future serious infection?
    I think the future will be - what do we immunise against in this years round of immunisations? Think annual flu jabs but for everyone.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,918

    Hotels, most of them are closed so you can be more noisier and messier than in usual times.

    There's nothing as bad as making eye contact with the cleaner the morning after the night before.
    Are you Boris Becker?
  • Floater said:

    Another welcome climbdown by the EU.

    Ursula surely has to fall on her sword so we can all move on

    ?.....as far as been reported the EU still intend to count out every vaccine for export and potentially ban them for basically no reason beyond we don't think its fair.
  • No idea, but you don't keep purchasing 9 series comprising 85 episodes if nobody's watching.
    I'm now slightly disappointed in your level of expertise on French TV ratings, but fear not, I believe you still possess your integrity!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/29/hs2-protesters-conditions-euston-tunnel-deteriorating

    So what's this about. The protestors have built a tunnel against the opposition of those trying to construct the project. It's not very safe (unsurprisingly), and the protestors are complaining that not enough is being done to ensure their safety. Or they could, you know, come out?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:
    Although, unsurprisingly, they did slide in "whose response has othewrise been bungled"......
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,466
    edited January 2021
    geoffw said:

    How did they dub "good moaning?"

    They had the actor speak in very badly mispronounced French (as Officer Crabtree was meant to be doing). I don't know how much innuendo they managed to get in, as French probably doesn't lend itself quite as well, but I think it's still very funny.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    felix said:

    Spain is now at 60% certain and around 70% as probable.
    Views might change if deaths start increasing - I know a couple of people here that change their minds when this new wave in UK really took off - and more and more of us know people who are seriously ill or dead.

    Incidentally - I mentioned previously a mate of my son's who caught covid from work and passed it onto his entire family. The dad died Thursday - underlying issues but in his 50's
  • alex_ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/29/hs2-protesters-conditions-euston-tunnel-deteriorating

    So what's this about. The protestors have built a tunnel against the opposition of those trying to construct the project. It's not very safe (unsurprisingly), and the protestors are complaining that not enough is being done to ensure their safety. Or they could, you know, come out?

    Dickheads....fine them £10k for breaking covid rules.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    ?.....as far as been reported the EU still intend to count out every vaccine for export and potentially ban them for basically no reason beyond we don't think its fair.
    Brussels has backed down from plans to impose export controls on vaccines that threatened the shipment of 3.5million Pfizer doses to Britain.

    Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the assurance to Boris Johnson after announcing an extraordinary embargo on jabs leaving the bloc amid dwindling supplies on the Continent.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,002
    MaxPB said:

    No it isn't. You do as many people as possible at the same time. Doses sitting in the fridge means there's people who could potentially end up in hospital. People aged 60 and over all have a non-negligible risk of hospitalisation so the strategy in England, Wales and NI of reaching down the priority list ensures that those people will be partially protected sooner. Just because you use a vaccine dose on someone aged 68 it doesn't mean you're taking it away from someone aged 84, we're not supply limited to that extent.
    It is only Tory propaganda that anything is sitting in a fridge, that was debunked a few weeks ago when they said same thing and then squealed when SNP published the numbers to prove it was hogwash. They started again last week and are now wetting their pants as Sturgeon has promised to publish again and prove them wrong yet again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,284
    alex_ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/29/hs2-protesters-conditions-euston-tunnel-deteriorating

    So what's this about. The protestors have built a tunnel against the opposition of those trying to construct the project. It's not very safe (unsurprisingly), and the protestors are complaining that not enough is being done to ensure their safety. Or they could, you know, come out?

    Look, I'm against HS2, albeit for different reasons, but...huh?

    The activists say HS2’s eviction techniques are putting their lives at risk while HS2 blames the protesters and the way the tunnel has been constructed for putting their own lives at risk.

    Larch Maxey, one of the activists in the tunnel, said: “HS2 are endangering our lives yet again. They need to help us make the tunnel safe. They have made this an urgent situation. We haven’t got the air supply.” He said the eviction team were preventing the tunnellers from clearing soil and water from the tunnel, which was making it very dangerous.

    Earlier he had told journalists via video that the tunnellers had had a chance to sleep for a couple of hours on Thursday after a previous sleepless night due to HS2 contractors continually working
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Are you Boris Becker?
    If he was he would have said "after 45 seconds in a broom cupboard"
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384

    I think it is a near certainly that as soon as we finish by the autumn, the oldies will be getting jabbed again for the winter with an updated version.
    I'm not sure who you are calling "the oldies" but I think you're right. I also agree vaccines will improve both in terms of efficacy and in terms of the length of immunity provided.

    That said, and it's a poor pun, it's an "arms race" as I imagine the virus will be evolving as well and new variants have and will continue to emerge. The problem will be if one emerges which is resistant to all current vaccines - I think that's unlikely in the short term. Longer term, a virus will emerge which will be new and resistant to all current vaccines - it's happened before, it will happen again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Scott_xP said:

    Brussels airport as a hub is soooooo much nicer than Schipol

    We have an office in the nice part of Brussels, but all my time there is spent on a grungy industrial estate
    THAT'S how the EU rewards you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,284
    Floater said:

    Brussels has backed down from plans to impose export controls on vaccines that threatened the shipment of 3.5million Pfizer doses to Britain.

    Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the assurance to Boris Johnson after announcing an extraordinary embargo on jabs leaving the bloc amid dwindling supplies on the Continent.
    She's made blaming the EU for things so much easier, on so many issues. Something will come up, Boris can blame the EU, they'll deny it, then this incident will be brought up, and while the precise details won't be right, Boris will be able to point to enough that is true to muddle the waters.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,918
    Floater said:

    If he was he would have said "after 45 seconds in a broom cupboard"
    A fair point.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,002

    So you're happy the Scottish government is the slowest rolling out vaccination in the UK?
    You are happy your beloved England tops the world's death list , stop trying to obfuscate.
    I would like them to do as safely and fast as they can , with most vulnerable getting it first and get death rate even lower than it is today. I do not gloat that other countries are doing badly on some or all parts, it is not a game show.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    edited January 2021

    I have a rock solid record and I say Macron and the Commission are becoming as bad as Trump this week. Their attacks on AZN are as hate filled, fallacious and rotten as Trumps attacks on Dominion.

    If you can't call out Trumpism when it is on our own doorstep then you lose all integrity. This week you have lost your integrity.
    I sense you are angry because I revealed that your PB persona was Gareth Keenan. Fair enough. Perhaps it was unfair. I'll think again and revise it to something more empowering. How would you feel about Ross Kemp?

    Re the specific issue at hand, I've expressed in half a dozen posts my bitter disappointment in President Emmanuel Macron of France. As for the Trump comparison, it's ludicrous on one level - this was one shocking incident as compared to 5 years of continuous cesspit - but I actually like it because it does work for this incident and it does ram the point home. "Trumpian" is (quite rightly) the ultimate insult you can throw at a politician and Manu merits it here.

    Which is why my very first (integrity laden) post on the matter yesterday was as below -

    "If this is an accurate translation of what President Macron said today about the AZ vaccine, I'm afraid it pushes him in my book towards the vicinity of another President, one we have just gotten rid of, who specialized in toxic bullshit. And I never thought I would say that."

    Feels a bit wanky quoting myself, but just this once.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,032
    Floater said:

    Brussels has backed down from plans to impose export controls on vaccines that threatened the shipment of 3.5million Pfizer doses to Britain.

    Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the assurance to Boris Johnson after announcing an extraordinary embargo on jabs leaving the bloc amid dwindling supplies on the Continent.
    They are still *recording* the exports (which is in itself a veiled threat), but have said that companies delivering contracted doses will not be affected.

    In other words, the EU managed to damage its reputation both with pharmaceutical companies and with an important ally, while not actually managing to increase the number of doses of vaccines it has.

    A real win-win for the bloc.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Deaths definitely trending down:


  • 1,200 deaths and 23,275 cases announced today.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,284
    Floater said:

    Another welcome climbdown by the EU.

    Ursula surely has to fall on her sword so we can all move on

    Nope. Who, in the EU, would see it as a benefit? It's her incompetence, but losing the EC President would look like weakness in conceding something to an outsider, and provoke arguments over who would replace her.

    Privately rap her knuckles, then not give her another term perhaps.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,462
    rcs1000 said:

    They are still *recording* the exports (which is in itself a veiled threat), but have said that companies delivering contracted doses will not be affected.

    In other words, the EU managed to damage its reputation both with pharmaceutical companies and with an important ally, while not actually managing to increase the number of doses of vaccines it has.

    A real win-win for the bloc.
    All credit to the bloc-head.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,284
    edited January 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    They are still *recording* the exports (which is in itself a veiled threat), but have said that companies delivering contracted doses will not be affected.

    In other words, the EU managed to damage its reputation both with pharmaceutical companies and with an important ally, while not actually managing to increase the number of doses of vaccines it has.

    A real win-win for the bloc.
    Not sure where they are going to get some face saving done here. As you point out, the only goal was about increasing the number of doses it has, and they haven't yet managed to do that at all, let alone substantially. So is the goal now just to ignore their own ramping up of tensions until a week or two when supplies are expected to be better? They can then claim their efforts helped?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,972

    Deaths definitely trending down:


    We've passed the Wendepunkt.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Deaths definitely trending down:


    Positive tests down to the level of the second wave peak. Good reduction in admissions this past week too.
  • kinabalu said:

    I sense you are angry because I revealed that your PB persona was Gareth Keenan. Fair enough. Perhaps it was unfair. I'll think again and revise it to something more empowering. How would you feel about Ross Kemp?

    Re the specific issue at hand, I've expressed in half a dozen posts my bitter disappointment in President Emmanuel Macron of France. As for the Trump comparison, it's ludicrous on one level - this was one shocking incident as compared to 5 years of continuous cesspit - but I actually like it because it does work for this incident and it does ram the point home. "Trumpian" is (quite rightly) the ultimate insult you can throw at a politician and Manu merits it here.

    Which is why my very first (integrity laden) post on the matter yesterday was as below -

    "If this is an accurate translation of what President Macron said today about the AZ vaccine, I'm afraid it pushes him in my book towards the vicinity of another President, one we have just gotten rid of, who specialized in toxic bullshit. And I never thought I would say that."

    Feels a bit wanky quoting myself, but just this once.
    Proclamation: The PB Peoples' Court of the Great Nation of Vaccinania has ruled that you must post twenty times that 'Macron has shit all over the vaccine' if you wish to have your integrity restored. Progress will be monitored and further action may be considered.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    malcolmg said:

    You are happy your beloved England tops the world's death list , stop trying to obfuscate.
    I would like them to do as safely and fast as they can , with most vulnerable getting it first and get death rate even lower than it is today. I do not gloat that other countries are doing badly on some or all parts, it is not a game show.
    The point is "Should the Scottish government be doing things differently?" Which you bat away with your usual defensive nonsense.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I think the future will be - what do we immunise against in this years round of immunisations? Think annual flu jabs but for everyone.
    Flu wipes out something like 15,000 people in a typical year IIRC. At the moment the NHS only offers flu jabs to specific groups; however, if we're now going to need covid updates each year as well, which is a distinct possibility, then perhaps policy will change, the flu and covid inoculations will be bundled together, and the whole adult population will end up getting both at once each Autumn?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    Over the years PB dumped a million tons of ordure all over Trump. It wasn't an expl;sive one off, because Trump was consistently repugnant and outrageous over his entire ghastly presidency

    Macron has in the past been a bit annoying and vain, but generally quite competent and sane, Yesterday, however, he suddenly evolved into a psychotic idiot hell-bent on destroying Europe's vaccination drive, and killing loads of his own citizens, while scaring millions more

    So yes, the reaction has been more spectacular, because it is so sudden and unexpected. And so very very dangerous
    Over the years - least my three - PB has also dumped a million tons of ordure over Macron. He deserves plenty right now, no question, but over the piece I'm frankly not sure the Trump/Macron 'PB ordure dumping differential' has been anything like wide enough.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,986
    edited January 2021
    The decline in cases is fantastic. We should be below the level it was at the end of the December lockdown within a week or so if the rate continues. I can't believe how steep the slope on the graph is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,284
    Floater said:
    LD “leader” ED Daley: she “must resign”. Johnson’s “dodgy cronyism” is a “disgrace”

    Come on, Andrew. He became leader in August so the quotations on that might be ok, but at least get his name right.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,462

    Positive tests down to the level of the second wave peak. Good reduction in admissions this past week too.
    Positive tests are themselves a lagging indicator of new infections so the drop looks like very good news.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,002
    RobD said:

    I don't think it's either/or. The vaccine supply is divided up according to population, so there should be plenty to continue going down the priority list, rather than waiting for every last person in the first group to be vaccinated.
    You have any evidence they are stockpiling rather than doing jabs.
  • Proclamation: The PB Peoples' Court of the Great Nation of Vaccinania has ruled that you must post twenty times that 'Macron has shit all over the vaccine' if you wish to have your integrity restored. Progress will be monitored and further action may be considered.
    Sensible policy, Sir. I salute you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,284

    The decline in cases is fantastic. We should be below the level it was at the end of the December lockdown within a week or so if the rate continues. I can't believe how steep the slope on the graph is.

    Hopefully means a sharper decrease in the death rate than we experienced last time, or those estimates of 150000 may not be too far off.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Positive tests down to the level of the second wave peak. Good reduction in admissions this past week too.
    Admissions down by more than deaths, cases down by more than admissions. All quite logical. And the tests completed are still gradually trending upwards.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Floater said:

    Brussels has backed down from plans to impose export controls on vaccines that threatened the shipment of 3.5million Pfizer doses to Britain.

    Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the assurance to Boris Johnson after announcing an extraordinary embargo on jabs leaving the bloc amid dwindling supplies on the Continent.
    Her exact words for some reason gave me an image of a weasel when i saw them:

    "We agreed on the principle that there should not be restrictions on the export of vaccines by companies where they are fulfilling contractual responsibilities."
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,070
    geoffw said:

    We've passed the Wendepunkt.

    YOu do not know what Wendepunkt mean. You mean "We've passed the Hochpunkt".
    The Wendepunkt was around the 1st of Jan.
  • Floater said:
    Not sure how you can judge a scenario to be undesirable when it never happened. Arguably the rollout might have benefitted from Boris's golden touch - then both the UK and EU would be sitting pretty. We'll never know.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,949
    edited January 2021

    Although, unsurprisingly, they did slide in "whose response has othewrise been bungled"......
    And so it has (more badly than your typing). Although the US isn't the one to throw the first stone.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,002

    I've seen you slag her off for not getting Independence done yet, or for attacks against Alex Salmond.

    Have you attacked her for her performance over education, healthcare or other elements of her day job?
    Healthcare is doing well, recent education data showed upticks and doing well , not aware of any other elements but think she is doing a crap job at getting independence and trying to stiff Alex.
    Do you have examples , anything I saw re health was to point out that Scotland NHS was performing better than England and Wales. Last thing I saw on education was positive as well but perhaps you get better Scottish information down south, you do have The Sun, Express , Daily Mail and Carlotta ( if you count tax havens as down south ).
  • Not sure how you can judge a scenario to be undesirable when it never happened. Arguably the rollout might have benefitted from Boris's golden touch - then both the UK and EU would be sitting pretty. We'll never know.
    https://twitter.com/Tim_R_Dawson/status/1355214250139115521?s=20
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,972

    Sensible policy, Sir. I salute you.
    For indefatiguability.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,032

    I don't know what crude and arbitrary formula they've deployed, but it looks wrong.

    I very much doubt that any of Norway, Canada, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand will take until the middle of next year to get done. Japan and South Africa might make it this year as well. Greenland is a Danish dependency with a very small population so shouldn't have to wait too long. And if you squint at the map you'll notice that Serbia is down for the back end of 2022, when they're currently the seventh best performing country in the world by rate. But hey-ho.
    I think there are a couple of things to note here:

    (1) As we're seeing in the UK and Israel (and maybe the US), vaccination programmes can start to really impact CV19 rates while relatively small proportions of the population has been vaccinated. R may be 3 for CV19 when no-one has had Covid and no-one is vaccinated; it'll be a much smaller number when a third of the population is vaccinated and another 10-20% have had Covid.

    (2) Vaccine production capacity is only growing. I believe the Serum Institute of India is planning to produce two billion doses (between AZN and Novavax) this year. Novartis and Sanofi will both manufacture Pfizer's vaccine under license. And Bayer has also signed up to manufacture CureVac's vaccine. Then we have J&J, Moderna and others. It's hard not to imagine that the world will be pumping out at least a billion doses of vaccines every quarter from the second quarter of this year, and many place will have far more doses than they have people.

    Now, I don't know the structure of the UK contracts for vaccines. If the UK doesn't end up taking all its J&J order because (say) Pfizer and Novavax and AZN have managed to get 100 million doses to us, do we have the option to decline it? (Are contacts set up as a big upfront payment and then a small per dose one?)

    There's also the question of which vaccines you'd want to send where. J&J or AZN are probably fantastic for Africa because of their easy storage requirements. Sending Pfizer vaccines to Uganda, by contrast, might result in very high wastage due to lack of appropriate refigeration.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited January 2021
    Would it be too much provocative for the UK now to offer to help Ireland with vaccinations or Dishy Rishi to announce a new package of measures to further encourage Big Pharma to set up in the UK?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    malcolmg said:

    You are happy your beloved England tops the world's death list , stop trying to obfuscate.
    I would like them to do as safely and fast as they can , with most vulnerable getting it first and get death rate even lower than it is today. I do not gloat that other countries are doing badly on some or all parts, it is not a game show.
    "I do not gloat" versus "England tops the world's death list" Hmmmmmm
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    IanB2 said:

    It remains terribly sad that ‘Secret Army’ - one of the best BBC television drama series ever made, which certainly stands the test of time (not least for its mature and before-its-time portrayal of the tensions and conflicts within the German side) has been eclipsed by a puerile sitcom the BBC foolishly chose to make in its wake.
    Well, I agree on the first point, that Secret Army was a superb series. But I must also admit to loving Allo Allo, and in particular it's references to Secret Army
  • Around 130,000 people who are clinically extremely vulnerable to the coronavirus are being asked to keep shielding in Wales until the end of March.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    All credit to the bloc-head.
    'Bloc-head'! Now that deserves a chapeau.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,918
    geoffw said:
    She should be concentrating on the Pandemic and not independence related political point scoring...oh wait, wrong First Minister.
  • Would it be too much provocative for the UK now to offer to help Ireland with vaccinations or Dishy Rishi to announce a new package of measures to further encourage Big Pharma to set up in the UK?

    Do it. Do it. Do it.
  • She should be concentrating on the Pandemic and not independence related political point scoring...oh wait, wrong First Minister.
    The PB Tories on-off thing with the DUP can get bloody confusing.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,986

    https://twitter.com/Tim_R_Dawson/status/1355214250139115521?s=20
    Don't kink shame
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,032
    kle4 said:

    Not sure where they are going to get some face saving done here. As you point out, the only goal was about increasing the number of doses it has, and they haven't yet managed to do that at all, let alone substantially. So is the goal now just to ignore their own ramping up of tensions until a week or two when supplies are expected to be better? They can then claim their efforts helped?
    I suspect that the key thing has been Pfizer's deals with Sanofi and Novartis to manufacture CV19 vaccines. This bringing on of additional capacity (almost certainly in the EU) will make a massive difference to the quantity of vaccines available. Now, it probably won't happen until Q2, but I suspect the EU will be over the worst by June/July.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,078
    As I know there are a few history buffs on here (and plenty of Brexit policy obsessives), just posting to say that I am mightily enjoying Robert Tombs short new book, "This sovereign isle".

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    The decline in cases is fantastic. We should be below the level it was at the end of the December lockdown within a week or so if the rate continues. I can't believe how steep the slope on the graph is.

    Yes once again the rate of decrease is accelerating. It really feels like a vaccine related success, there's no other way to explain fewer cases despite lockdown conditions remaining stable.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,972
    eristdoof said:

    YOu do not know what Wendepunkt mean. You mean "We've passed the Hochpunkt".
    The Wendepunkt was around the 1st of Jan.
    You're quite right, I thought it meant turning point but it actually means point of inflexion. However that is the turning point of the derivative, i.e. the rate of change of daily infections, and we are past that as you say. So my statement is correct, though I admit error in my thinking.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,827
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • https://twitter.com/Tim_R_Dawson/status/1355214250139115521?s=20
    Not sure why you aimed that at me - I was indulging in a bit of British exceptionalism.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,827
    edited January 2021
    UK cases by specimen data and scaled to 100K population

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,949
    Off topic, Noch's new items 2021 presentation:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lr-YFSHKYtA&t=1s
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,827
    UK Local R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,827
    UK case summary

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,032
    My gut is that the Euro area won't achieve that number, because they'll be Covid-ed for all of Q1, and while things will improve in Q2, they won't be great.

    I'd be a bit more optimistic re the UK, because we should be back in growth mode from the second quarter.

    The US number is probably right.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,827
    UK hospitals

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This discussion has been closed.