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Powerful front page from the Daily Mail as UK COVID deaths top 100k – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Leon said:

    According to the FT, the EU Commission was paying over twice as much for the Sanofi vaccine with nothing to show for it so far. Yet somehow the villain is the successful Oxford/AstraZeneca scheme?

    https://www.ft.com/content/95c49b5a-f2c7-49a3-9ac5-3e7a66e3ad6b

    Does this behaviour make you question your slavish loyalty to the EU, ever-so-slightly?
    William has already called for the resignation of the EU president and commission. ;)
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    I don't know how to do this tweeting stuff, but this might be of interest, re the AZ/EU spat, a tweet from TissuePrice:
    @AaronBell4NUL
    · 1h
    Replying to @Mikepeeljourno
    AstraZeneca were clear to me at @CommonsSTC (Q1704) that this would not be the case:

    "[The UK' supply] is a dedicated supply chain and our ability to commit to that 100 million doses is not affected by approval status in other supply chains."

    https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/1
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Leon said:

    The EU is losing its collective mind


    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354483646602817540?s=20


    They are threatening us, in an overtly hostile way, because THEY fucked up their vaccine contracts, by giving them to the stupid EU Commission

    It's a negative sum game they're playing because we export raw materials that Pfizer uses to produce the vaccine, do they think that the UK won't block that overnight and redirect it to Pfizer's US operations so we can get our vaccine deliveries fulfilled from there? For us its a 3-4 week delay while Pfizer tools up its US production, for the EU it's months of finding a new supplier, testing, testing, testing and finally certifying them for use. Also it's hoping that there is an EU supplier with spare capacity because the retaliation will be from the US, Switzerland and the UK.

    Honestly, it's almost like our village idiots have taken over the asylum and believe all of their anti-Brexit stuff.
  • Options
    No10 comms improving?

    Why comment on something when you don't have to?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    Leon said:

    The EU is losing its collective mind


    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354483646602817540?s=20


    They are threatening us, in an overtly hostile way, because THEY fucked up their vaccine contracts, by giving them to the stupid EU Commission

    Idiot nationalists exist for the EU too, of course.

    And poor Sweden, AZ is their company too!

    I like how in the text that is cut off at the end it seems like he is about to try to blame the UK for a trade war that he is the one proposing.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,602

    Selebian said:

    Those who enjoyed a student conference at he University of York dropping a three wise monkeys image due to perceived/imagined racism may also enjoy this:
    https://twitter.com/UniOfYork/status/1354464624633139203?s=20

    Two thoughts: (i) it should at least get drivers' attention, even if they're not sure what it means (ii) there won't be that many drivers (nor pedestrians) at present

    Hang on, is this different to Pride month?

    Or is Woke virtue-signalling just an all year long affair now with just a different "event" for each calendar month?
    Yes, it is different to pride month.

    One is to educate, one is to party.
    So we agree it's Woke creep then.

    Last year, Pride "month" started in late May and didn't fizzle out until mid July.
    But when is international men's day?
    19th November - I've gone off that too.

    It's the lecturing, preachiness and sanctimony of it all that is so grating now. It's everywhere. Everyone competes to be the loudest or wokest -banks, companies, unis, councils, colleagues.. - and it isn't about "education" or "awareness" anymore - it's about needy people signalling virtue as loud as they can for as long as they can. Don't forget, Pride used to be a weekend and it was special, fun and distinctive then.

    Of course, anyone who gets totally fed up with it (and they do) can be shut up and dismissed by simply accusing them of Bigotry (which trolls like @TOPPING like to do) and so the madness goes on and on.

    The rest of us desperately plead for sanity to be restored.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    .

    MaxPB said:


    ...
    This whole thing was so predictable when the commission took everything over, the lack of production subsidies is really what the issue is in the EU. Both the UK and US took a proactive approach and subsidised it's industries to ensure domestic supply and eventually oversupply. The EU relied on the free market, it was the wrong approach and instead of fixing the original problem they are making threats.

    Yes, I think that is the crucial point. The UK (and I think also the US with Operation Warp Speed) took a gamble early on by putting money into production capacity without knowing whether the vaccines would actually work and be safe. It was a well-judged gamble (thanks, Kate Bingham) which has been spectacularly successful. At worst, we might have wasted a few hundred million quid, but that's nothing in the context of this pandemic, and as it has turned out, we've gained months. The EU was very late to that game, and is now unfortunately left behind.
    Months? AIUI, the EU is three weeks behind as of the most recent data. 2% as of 24th January, versus the UK's 2% as of 3rd January.
    Yes, but the running rate in the UK is now miles faster, and will stay that way for some time.
    What matters in terms of how far behind is the UK's current rate versus the EU's rate in 3 weeks. If the EU curve has the same shape as the UK's it will remain 3 weeks behind. Steeper, it will be less behind, and shallower, further. I don't know what the coming weeks will hold for vaccination rates, but the fairest metric today is 3 weeks.

    Obviously the EU's not going to overtake the UK's vaccinations (by proportion of population vaccinated) anytime soon, probably ever. But "months behind" is probably an exaggeration right now.
    No, months is accurate.

    The question to ask is at what point they will reach the stage where we are today. 3 weeks ago they were 3 weeks behind, as they've only just caught up with where we were 3 weeks ago. But that doesn't mean they're still 3 weeks behind now. Unless something dramatically changes they're going to take months now to catch up to >10 doses per 100 people.

    Two trains set off from the same location, one travelling at 60 miles per hour, one travelling at 30 miles an hour. After an hour train one has travelled 60 miles. By the time train 2 has travelled 60 miles, train 1 has now travelled 120 miles; train 2 is now 60 miles behind car, which is 2 hours behind - not half an hour or one hour.
    No, you're wrong, sorry. If a train leaves half an hour after another one and follows the same acceleration curve, it will always be half an hour behind. The distance will keep getting larger, but the lag remains constant.

    To put it another way, if you drop two tennis balls off a cliff a second apart, they will land a second apart. The gap in height will continue to get larger until the first one bounces, but the lag is the same.

    Now, to be clear, I'm not saying the acceleration curves will remain the same.. I'm not projecting forwards. I'm just saying that IF the rates track the same, then the lag stays the same.
    If the UK or the EU runs into stronger supply, delivery, or demand headwinds, the lag will definitely change. But on banked data so far, it looks the same.
    Except they're not following the same acceleration curve so that's not relevant.

    They're already significantly behind our curve, from where we were at the same point, and the gap is accelerating. If they were keeping track with us but offset you'd have a point but they're not. On banked data they're not following our path.
    December 20th - January 3rd (2 weeks) UK went from 1% to 2%
    January 11th - January 25th (2 weeks) EU went from (just under) 1% to 2%.

    Same delta time, slightly higher delta N for the EU
    So the EU is increasing its coverage by 0.5 percentage points per week. Three weeks ago, the UK was doing the exactly the same.

    So yes, in actual fact, the paths for the limited amount of data we have map very well to a 3 week lag.
    See for yourself:
    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1354456494578819079

    Just shift the EU line left by 3 weeks.
    They are not even keeping their current rate; it's almost completely stopped in Spain and Italy, for example.
    I'm just going on the overall figures, as per the graph. I've not said anything about evenness of distribution within either the UK or EU.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,499

    There's more:

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354484474545909766?s=20

    I wonder what the "good news from today" is?

    But Pfizer is an American company. They will not take illegal orders from the EU. America will not sit idly by as one of its biggest pharma companies is menaced.

    The EU is self-destructing.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    .

    MaxPB said:


    ...
    This whole thing was so predictable when the commission took everything over, the lack of production subsidies is really what the issue is in the EU. Both the UK and US took a proactive approach and subsidised it's industries to ensure domestic supply and eventually oversupply. The EU relied on the free market, it was the wrong approach and instead of fixing the original problem they are making threats.

    Yes, I think that is the crucial point. The UK (and I think also the US with Operation Warp Speed) took a gamble early on by putting money into production capacity without knowing whether the vaccines would actually work and be safe. It was a well-judged gamble (thanks, Kate Bingham) which has been spectacularly successful. At worst, we might have wasted a few hundred million quid, but that's nothing in the context of this pandemic, and as it has turned out, we've gained months. The EU was very late to that game, and is now unfortunately left behind.
    Months? AIUI, the EU is three weeks behind as of the most recent data. 2% as of 24th January, versus the UK's 2% as of 3rd January.
    Yes, but the running rate in the UK is now miles faster, and will stay that way for some time.
    What matters in terms of how far behind is the UK's current rate versus the EU's rate in 3 weeks. If the EU curve has the same shape as the UK's it will remain 3 weeks behind. Steeper, it will be less behind, and shallower, further. I don't know what the coming weeks will hold for vaccination rates, but the fairest metric today is 3 weeks.

    Obviously the EU's not going to overtake the UK's vaccinations (by proportion of population vaccinated) anytime soon, probably ever. But "months behind" is probably an exaggeration right now.
    No, months is accurate.

    The question to ask is at what point they will reach the stage where we are today. 3 weeks ago they were 3 weeks behind, as they've only just caught up with where we were 3 weeks ago. But that doesn't mean they're still 3 weeks behind now. Unless something dramatically changes they're going to take months now to catch up to >10 doses per 100 people.

    Two trains set off from the same location, one travelling at 60 miles per hour, one travelling at 30 miles an hour. After an hour train one has travelled 60 miles. By the time train 2 has travelled 60 miles, train 1 has now travelled 120 miles; train 2 is now 60 miles behind car, which is 2 hours behind - not half an hour or one hour.
    No, you're wrong, sorry. If a train leaves half an hour after another one and follows the same acceleration curve, it will always be half an hour behind. The distance will keep getting larger, but the lag remains constant.

    To put it another way, if you drop two tennis balls off a cliff a second apart, they will land a second apart. The gap in height will continue to get larger until the first one bounces, but the lag is the same.

    Now, to be clear, I'm not saying the acceleration curves will remain the same.. I'm not projecting forwards. I'm just saying that IF the rates track the same, then the lag stays the same.
    If the UK or the EU runs into stronger supply, delivery, or demand headwinds, the lag will definitely change. But on banked data so far, it looks the same.
    Except they're not following the same acceleration curve so that's not relevant.

    They're already significantly behind our curve, from where we were at the same point, and the gap is accelerating. If they were keeping track with us but offset you'd have a point but they're not. On banked data they're not following our path.
    December 20th - January 3rd (2 weeks) UK went from 1% to 2%
    January 11th - January 25th (2 weeks) EU went from (just under) 1% to 2%.

    Same delta time, slightly higher delta N for the EU
    So the EU is increasing its coverage by 0.5 percentage points per week. Three weeks ago, the UK was doing the exactly the same.

    So yes, in actual fact, the paths for the limited amount of data we have map very well to a 3 week lag.
    See for yourself:
    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1354456494578819079

    Just shift the EU line left by 3 weeks.
    They are not even keeping their current rate; it's almost completely stopped in Spain and Italy, for example.
    I'm just going on the overall figures, as per the graph. I've not said anything about evenness of distribution within either the UK or EU.
    Yep, but people are making projections of what will happen in the future based on not only this data, but what is happening now.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    Leon said:

    According to the FT, the EU Commission was paying over twice as much for the Sanofi vaccine with nothing to show for it so far. Yet somehow the villain is the successful Oxford/AstraZeneca scheme?

    https://www.ft.com/content/95c49b5a-f2c7-49a3-9ac5-3e7a66e3ad6b

    Does this behaviour make you question your slavish loyalty to the EU, ever-so-slightly?
    William has been quite critical of the Commission on this, not sure he needs to lose his support for the EU as a concept as well.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited January 2021

    Selebian said:

    Those who enjoyed a student conference at he University of York dropping a three wise monkeys image due to perceived/imagined racism may also enjoy this:
    https://twitter.com/UniOfYork/status/1354464624633139203?s=20

    Two thoughts: (i) it should at least get drivers' attention, even if they're not sure what it means (ii) there won't be that many drivers (nor pedestrians) at present

    Hang on, is this different to Pride month?

    Or is Woke virtue-signalling just an all year long affair now with just a different "event" for each calendar month?
    Yes, it is different to pride month.

    One is to educate, one is to party.
    So we agree it's Woke creep then.

    Last year, Pride "month" started in late May and didn't fizzle out until mid July.
    But when is international men's day?
    19th November - I've gone off that too.

    It's the lecturing, preachiness and sanctimony of it all that is so grating now. It's everywhere. Everyone competes to be the loudest or wokest -banks, companies, unis, councils, colleagues.. - and it isn't about "education" or "awareness" anymore - it's about needy people signalling virtue as loud as they can for as long as they can. Don't forget, Pride used to be a weekend and it was special, fun and distinctive then.

    Of course, anyone who gets totally fed up with it (and they do) can be shut up and dismissed by simply accusing them of Bigotry (which trolls like @TOPPING like to do) and so the madness goes on and on.

    The rest of us desperately plead for sanity to be restored.
    "Sanity" - you mean that of the past decades of normalised abuse, bigotry, and prejudice? That sanity?

    Why are you so het up about multi-coloured road markings?

    Is there ever an issue you don't get on the wrong side of?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,132
    Leon said:

    According to the FT, the EU Commission was paying over twice as much for the Sanofi vaccine with nothing to show for it so far. Yet somehow the villain is the successful Oxford/AstraZeneca scheme?

    https://www.ft.com/content/95c49b5a-f2c7-49a3-9ac5-3e7a66e3ad6b

    Does this behaviour make you question your slavish loyalty to the EU, ever-so-slightly?
    It was never slavish. ;) I do think heads need to roll in the Commission and some searching questions need to be asked.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:


    ...
    This whole thing was so predictable when the commission took everything over, the lack of production subsidies is really what the issue is in the EU. Both the UK and US took a proactive approach and subsidised it's industries to ensure domestic supply and eventually oversupply. The EU relied on the free market, it was the wrong approach and instead of fixing the original problem they are making threats.

    Yes, I think that is the crucial point. The UK (and I think also the US with Operation Warp Speed) took a gamble early on by putting money into production capacity without knowing whether the vaccines would actually work and be safe. It was a well-judged gamble (thanks, Kate Bingham) which has been spectacularly successful. At worst, we might have wasted a few hundred million quid, but that's nothing in the context of this pandemic, and as it has turned out, we've gained months. The EU was very late to that game, and is now unfortunately left behind.
    Months? AIUI, the EU is three weeks behind as of the most recent data. 2% as of 24th January, versus the UK's 2% as of 3rd January.
    Yes, but the running rate in the UK is now miles faster, and will stay that way for some time.
    What matters in terms of how far behind is the UK's current rate versus the EU's rate in 3 weeks. If the EU curve has the same shape as the UK's it will remain 3 weeks behind. Steeper, it will be less behind, and shallower, further. I don't know what the coming weeks will hold for vaccination rates, but the fairest metric today is 3 weeks.

    Obviously the EU's not going to overtake the UK's vaccinations (by proportion of population vaccinated) anytime soon, probably ever. But "months behind" is probably an exaggeration right now.
    No, months is accurate.

    The question to ask is at what point they will reach the stage where we are today. 3 weeks ago they were 3 weeks behind, as they've only just caught up with where we were 3 weeks ago. But that doesn't mean they're still 3 weeks behind now. Unless something dramatically changes they're going to take months now to catch up to >10 doses per 100 people.

    Two trains set off from the same location, one travelling at 60 miles per hour, one travelling at 30 miles an hour. After an hour train one has travelled 60 miles. By the time train 2 has travelled 60 miles, train 1 has now travelled 120 miles; train 2 is now 60 miles behind car, which is 2 hours behind - not half an hour or one hour.
    No, you're wrong, sorry. If a train leaves half an hour after another one and follows the same acceleration curve, it will always be half an hour behind. The distance will keep getting larger, but the lag remains constant.

    To put it another way, if you drop two tennis balls off a cliff a second apart, they will land a second apart. The gap in height will continue to get larger until the first one bounces, but the lag is the same.

    Now, to be clear, I'm not saying the acceleration curves will remain the same.. I'm not projecting forwards. I'm just saying that IF the rates track the same, then the lag stays the same.
    If the UK or the EU runs into stronger supply, delivery, or demand headwinds, the lag will definitely change. But on banked data so far, it looks the same.
    Except they're not following the same acceleration curve so that's not relevant.

    They're already significantly behind our curve, from where we were at the same point, and the gap is accelerating. If they were keeping track with us but offset you'd have a point but they're not. On banked data they're not following our path.
    December 20th - January 3rd (2 weeks) UK went from 1% to 2%
    January 11th - January 25th (2 weeks) EU went from (just under) 1% to 2%.

    Same delta time, slightly higher delta N for the EU
    So the EU is increasing its coverage by 0.5 percentage points per week. Three weeks ago, the UK was doing the exactly the same.

    So yes, in actual fact, the paths for the limited amount of data we have map very well to a 3 week lag.
    See for yourself:
    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1354456494578819079

    Just shift the EU line left by 3 weeks.
    Yeah but where's the equivalent of the UK's acceleration from that 2% point going to come from if the supplies aren't there?
    Yes - I get the point about initial rates, but there are some pretty compelling reasons to estimate the rates will not follow the same trajectory, rather than an equal chance they will vs they won't.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Leon said:

    There's more:

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354484474545909766?s=20

    I wonder what the "good news from today" is?

    But Pfizer is an American company. They will not take illegal orders from the EU. America will not sit idly by as one of its biggest pharma companies is menaced.

    The EU is self-destructing.
    It also sends pharma companies scurrying to the UK and Switzerland. It's an ultimately self-defeating move because international companies won't stay in a jurisdiction that interferes with their business in such a manner. Companies have no loyalty, if the EU does put up an export ban then they will find that out the hard way.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,897

    No10 comms improving?

    Why comment on something when you don't have to?
    It does give the impression that as was said on PB the other day someone has been sitting on Mr Johnson's head.

    I wonder what the attitude would have been with Mr Cummings in charge?
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,222
    I thought the AZ vaccine was shit? What are they worried about?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,499
    I used to mildly dislike the EU. Now I fucking hate it, them, the whole shebang. Arrogant, bullying, half-crazed bunch of bleeding arseholes.

    Outside now! America and the UK versus the EU. Let's be having it.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,602
    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    Those who enjoyed a student conference at he University of York dropping a three wise monkeys image due to perceived/imagined racism may also enjoy this:
    https://twitter.com/UniOfYork/status/1354464624633139203?s=20

    Two thoughts: (i) it should at least get drivers' attention, even if they're not sure what it means (ii) there won't be that many drivers (nor pedestrians) at present

    Hang on, is this different to Pride month?

    Or is Woke virtue-signalling just an all year long affair now with just a different "event" for each calendar month?
    Yes, it is different to pride month.

    One is to educate, one is to party.
    So we agree it's Woke creep then.

    Last year, Pride "month" started in late May and didn't fizzle out until mid July.
    But when is international men's day?
    19th November - I've gone off that too.

    It's the lecturing, preachiness and sanctimony of it all that is so grating now. It's everywhere. Everyone competes to be the loudest or wokest -banks, companies, unis, councils, colleagues.. - and it isn't about "education" or "awareness" anymore - it's about needy people signalling virtue as loud as they can for as long as they can. Don't forget, Pride used to be a weekend and it was special, fun and distinctive then.

    Of course, anyone who gets totally fed up with it (and they do) can be shut up and dismissed by simply accusing them of Bigotry (which trolls like @TOPPING like to do) and so the madness goes on and on.

    The rest of us desperately plead for sanity to be restored.
    "Sanity" - you mean that of the past decades of normalised abuse, bigotry, and prejudice? That sanity?

    Why are you so het up about multi-coloured road markings?

    Is there ever an issue you don't get on the wrong side of?
    Willfully missing the point in pursuit of a good troll is a speciality of yours.

    I won't be drawn into anymore of it.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    DougSeal said:

    I thought the AZ vaccine was shit? What are they worried about?

    Even if it's shit they don't have much else to use right now for accelerated programmes.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    There's more:

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354484474545909766?s=20

    I wonder what the "good news from today" is?

    But Pfizer is an American company. They will not take illegal orders from the EU. America will not sit idly by as one of its biggest pharma companies is menaced.

    The EU is self-destructing.
    It also sends pharma companies scurrying to the UK and Switzerland. It's an ultimately self-defeating move because international companies won't stay in a jurisdiction that interferes with their business in such a manner. Companies have no loyalty, if the EU does put up an export ban then they will find that out the hard way.
    Spot on,

    And also why - ultimately - the EU will huff and puff and not actually pull the trigger.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    I agree, and his use of 'data are' is tainted by that wrongness. Data is, data is, data is.
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,978
    Really fascinating to see the EUs response go from bad to worse.

    They seem a very sensitive bloc - will be interesting to see how they deal with challenges going forward, particularly as they’ll make future mistakes. It is all about reminding members of the benefits of the club - and they are hopelessly exposed at the moment.
  • Options

    Selebian said:

    Those who enjoyed a student conference at he University of York dropping a three wise monkeys image due to perceived/imagined racism may also enjoy this:
    https://twitter.com/UniOfYork/status/1354464624633139203?s=20

    Two thoughts: (i) it should at least get drivers' attention, even if they're not sure what it means (ii) there won't be that many drivers (nor pedestrians) at present

    Hang on, is this different to Pride month?

    Or is Woke virtue-signalling just an all year long affair now with just a different "event" for each calendar month?
    Yes, it is different to pride month.

    One is to educate, one is to party.
    So we agree it's Woke creep then.

    Last year, Pride "month" started in late May and didn't fizzle out until mid July.
    But when is international men's day?
    19th November - I've gone off that too.

    It's the lecturing, preachiness and sanctimony of it all that is so grating now. It's everywhere. Everyone competes to be the loudest or wokest -banks, companies, unis, councils, colleagues.. - and it isn't about "education" or "awareness" anymore - it's about needy people signalling virtue as loud as they can for as long as they can. Don't forget, Pride used to be a weekend and it was special, fun and distinctive then.

    Of course, anyone who gets totally fed up with it (and they do) can be shut up and dismissed by simply accusing them of Bigotry (which trolls like @TOPPING like to do) and so the madness goes on and on.

    The rest of us desperately plead for sanity to be restored.
    Yes, the question was rhetorical.

    I have no interest in God... I don't get bothered by whether Christians go to church every single day or just on Christmas Eve. I've got no interest in Pride Month or Week or whatever. I don't get bothered if people want to make it six weeks or six hours.
    You could also be like that, if you wanted. I recommend it, I really do.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    Those who enjoyed a student conference at he University of York dropping a three wise monkeys image due to perceived/imagined racism may also enjoy this:
    https://twitter.com/UniOfYork/status/1354464624633139203?s=20

    Two thoughts: (i) it should at least get drivers' attention, even if they're not sure what it means (ii) there won't be that many drivers (nor pedestrians) at present

    Hang on, is this different to Pride month?

    Or is Woke virtue-signalling just an all year long affair now with just a different "event" for each calendar month?
    Yes, it is different to pride month.

    One is to educate, one is to party.
    So we agree it's Woke creep then.

    Last year, Pride "month" started in late May and didn't fizzle out until mid July.
    But when is international men's day?
    19th November - I've gone off that too.

    It's the lecturing, preachiness and sanctimony of it all that is so grating now. It's everywhere. Everyone competes to be the loudest or wokest -banks, companies, unis, councils, colleagues.. - and it isn't about "education" or "awareness" anymore - it's about needy people signalling virtue as loud as they can for as long as they can. Don't forget, Pride used to be a weekend and it was special, fun and distinctive then.

    Of course, anyone who gets totally fed up with it (and they do) can be shut up and dismissed by simply accusing them of Bigotry (which trolls like @TOPPING like to do) and so the madness goes on and on.

    The rest of us desperately plead for sanity to be restored.
    "Sanity" - you mean that of the past decades of normalised abuse, bigotry, and prejudice? That sanity?

    Why are you so het up about multi-coloured road markings?

    Is there ever an issue you don't get on the wrong side of?
    Willfully missing the point in pursuit of a good troll is a speciality of yours.

    I won't be drawn into anymore of it.
    Yes good fuck off.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    Leon said:

    There's more:

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354484474545909766?s=20

    I wonder what the "good news from today" is?

    But Pfizer is an American company. They will not take illegal orders from the EU. America will not sit idly by as one of its biggest pharma companies is menaced.

    The EU is self-destructing.
    The EU is certainly self-examining its faults.

    Those that choose to speak for it are almost incandescent that the EU way might have been left standing when others raced off their blocks.

    The UK should do whatever it can to help the EU in this. I'd actually include a slight diversion of vaccine to the EU whilst they have poor inoculation numbers in key workers etc.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    Hand to hand combat here............. brave man goes for all or nothing
    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/01/my-sworn-evidence-on-the-sturgeon-affair/
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    Leon said:

    There's more:

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354484474545909766?s=20

    I wonder what the "good news from today" is?

    But Pfizer is an American company. They will not take illegal orders from the EU. America will not sit idly by as one of its biggest pharma companies is menaced.

    The EU is self-destructing.
    They are behaving as if it's existential for them.

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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,912
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    There's more:

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354484474545909766?s=20

    I wonder what the "good news from today" is?

    But Pfizer is an American company. They will not take illegal orders from the EU. America will not sit idly by as one of its biggest pharma companies is menaced.

    The EU is self-destructing.
    The EU is certainly self-examining its faults.

    Those that choose to speak for it are almost incandescent that the EU way might have been left standing when others raced off their blocks.

    The UK should do whatever it can to help the EU in this. I'd actually include a slight diversion of vaccine to the EU whilst they have poor inoculation numbers in key workers etc.
    Sneak a few across the Irish border, perhaps. That would definitely be in our interests. The EU might not allow it though.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Leon said:

    According to the FT, the EU Commission was paying over twice as much for the Sanofi vaccine with nothing to show for it so far. Yet somehow the villain is the successful Oxford/AstraZeneca scheme?

    https://www.ft.com/content/95c49b5a-f2c7-49a3-9ac5-3e7a66e3ad6b

    Does this behaviour make you question your slavish loyalty to the EU, ever-so-slightly?
    William has already called for resignations on the EU side and said they acting appallingly
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited January 2021
    kle4 said:

    JVT just said 'I don't think there ARE clear data.'

    Top bloke.

    The government site on vaccinations is the same. There is many people happy about that.
    Nice use of the schema Boeoticum.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    There's more:

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354484474545909766?s=20

    I wonder what the "good news from today" is?

    But Pfizer is an American company. They will not take illegal orders from the EU. America will not sit idly by as one of its biggest pharma companies is menaced.

    The EU is self-destructing.
    The EU is certainly self-examining its faults.

    Those that choose to speak for it are almost incandescent that the EU way might have been left standing when others raced off their blocks.

    The UK should do whatever it can to help the EU in this. I'd actually include a slight diversion of vaccine to the EU whilst they have poor inoculation numbers in key workers etc.
    Fuck that - you do not cave to threats
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,424
    The RTÉ reporting on the EU/AZ dispute quotes a respected Irish scientist to explain why production issues with vaccines as not unusual. I'm not sure that the EU Commission will be successful in deflecting the blame with this strategy.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0127/1192269-coronavirus-vaccine/
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    malcolmg said:

    Hand to hand combat here............. brave man goes for all or nothing
    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/01/my-sworn-evidence-on-the-sturgeon-affair/

    What's your thinking on this?

    I'm hugely pissed off with Scottish politics at the moment. But that aside I quite like both Sturgeon and Salmond. I was shocked that the BBC allowed Kirsty Wark free reign to mount a televised assassination of the latter.

    My guess is that Salmond has just proved himself to be 'of the last century' and that Sturgeon has proved herself to be complacent.
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    Leon said:

    According to the FT, the EU Commission was paying over twice as much for the Sanofi vaccine with nothing to show for it so far. Yet somehow the villain is the successful Oxford/AstraZeneca scheme?

    https://www.ft.com/content/95c49b5a-f2c7-49a3-9ac5-3e7a66e3ad6b

    Does this behaviour make you question your slavish loyalty to the EU, ever-so-slightly?
    To be fair I would suggest that William's view of the current debacle is much the same as mine regarding Brexit. In both cases we believe the principle and ideals are good and worthy of support but that the individuals actually operating in the name of those principles leave much to be desired.

    I don't believe that the fact Johnson has fucked up the Brexit negotiations is an indication that Brexit itself was a bad idea. In the same way I can accept that William would think that the EU was still a good thing whilst criticising the way it is being run and the decisions that are currently being made on its behalf.

    In both cases of course there will be those who believe the problems are symptomatic of the underlying concept.
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    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    .

    MaxPB said:


    ...
    This whole thing was so predictable when the commission took everything over, the lack of production subsidies is really what the issue is in the EU. Both the UK and US took a proactive approach and subsidised it's industries to ensure domestic supply and eventually oversupply. The EU relied on the free market, it was the wrong approach and instead of fixing the original problem they are making threats.

    Yes, I think that is the crucial point. The UK (and I think also the US with Operation Warp Speed) took a gamble early on by putting money into production capacity without knowing whether the vaccines would actually work and be safe. It was a well-judged gamble (thanks, Kate Bingham) which has been spectacularly successful. At worst, we might have wasted a few hundred million quid, but that's nothing in the context of this pandemic, and as it has turned out, we've gained months. The EU was very late to that game, and is now unfortunately left behind.
    Months? AIUI, the EU is three weeks behind as of the most recent data. 2% as of 24th January, versus the UK's 2% as of 3rd January.
    Yes, but the running rate in the UK is now miles faster, and will stay that way for some time.
    What matters in terms of how far behind is the UK's current rate versus the EU's rate in 3 weeks. If the EU curve has the same shape as the UK's it will remain 3 weeks behind. Steeper, it will be less behind, and shallower, further. I don't know what the coming weeks will hold for vaccination rates, but the fairest metric today is 3 weeks.

    Obviously the EU's not going to overtake the UK's vaccinations (by proportion of population vaccinated) anytime soon, probably ever. But "months behind" is probably an exaggeration right now.
    No, months is accurate.

    The question to ask is at what point they will reach the stage where we are today. 3 weeks ago they were 3 weeks behind, as they've only just caught up with where we were 3 weeks ago. But that doesn't mean they're still 3 weeks behind now. Unless something dramatically changes they're going to take months now to catch up to >10 doses per 100 people.

    Two trains set off from the same location, one travelling at 60 miles per hour, one travelling at 30 miles an hour. After an hour train one has travelled 60 miles. By the time train 2 has travelled 60 miles, train 1 has now travelled 120 miles; train 2 is now 60 miles behind car, which is 2 hours behind - not half an hour or one hour.
    No, you're wrong, sorry. If a train leaves half an hour after another one and follows the same acceleration curve, it will always be half an hour behind. The distance will keep getting larger, but the lag remains constant.

    To put it another way, if you drop two tennis balls off a cliff a second apart, they will land a second apart. The gap in height will continue to get larger until the first one bounces, but the lag is the same.

    Now, to be clear, I'm not saying the acceleration curves will remain the same.. I'm not projecting forwards. I'm just saying that IF the rates track the same, then the lag stays the same.
    If the UK or the EU runs into stronger supply, delivery, or demand headwinds, the lag will definitely change. But on banked data so far, it looks the same.
    Except they're not following the same acceleration curve so that's not relevant.

    They're already significantly behind our curve, from where we were at the same point, and the gap is accelerating. If they were keeping track with us but offset you'd have a point but they're not. On banked data they're not following our path.
    December 20th - January 3rd (2 weeks) UK went from 1% to 2%
    January 11th - January 25th (2 weeks) EU went from (just under) 1% to 2%.

    Same delta time, slightly higher delta N for the EU
    So the EU is increasing its coverage by 0.5 percentage points per week. Three weeks ago, the UK was doing the exactly the same.

    So yes, in actual fact, the paths for the limited amount of data we have map very well to a 3 week lag.
    See for yourself:
    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1354456494578819079

    Just shift the EU line left by 3 weeks.
    They are not even keeping their current rate; it's almost completely stopped in Spain and Italy, for example.
    I'm just going on the overall figures, as per the graph. I've not said anything about evenness of distribution within either the UK or EU.
    Yep, but people are making projections of what will happen in the future based on not only this data, but what is happening now.
    Yes, and there's the difference; I'm not.
    Supply issues can definitely affect that rate and that could happen here or there. Prima facie, with the UK's last three weeks "locked in" and the uncertainty now potentially affecting the EU's next three weeks, it looks less likely the EU will keep up that same rate. But I don't know enough about that situation so I've just been looking at the past data. That's all I've been saying, all along.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,361
    TOPPING said:

    btw where's @ydoethur (and others)?

    Why do schools need two weeks notice to reopen?

    BEcause it takes a long time to (1) prepare the testing regime they want and (2) we will need to replan all our lessons while still teaching remotely, which isn't easy. I've only just finished for today.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    Floater said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    There's more:

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354484474545909766?s=20

    I wonder what the "good news from today" is?

    But Pfizer is an American company. They will not take illegal orders from the EU. America will not sit idly by as one of its biggest pharma companies is menaced.

    The EU is self-destructing.
    The EU is certainly self-examining its faults.

    Those that choose to speak for it are almost incandescent that the EU way might have been left standing when others raced off their blocks.

    The UK should do whatever it can to help the EU in this. I'd actually include a slight diversion of vaccine to the EU whilst they have poor inoculation numbers in key workers etc.
    Fuck that - you do not cave to threats
    Oh, I dunno. Maybe I'm not so brave.

    I don't see a threat anyway. I do see a problem.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Selebian said:

    Those who enjoyed a student conference at he University of York dropping a three wise monkeys image due to perceived/imagined racism may also enjoy this:
    https://twitter.com/UniOfYork/status/1354464624633139203?s=20

    Two thoughts: (i) it should at least get drivers' attention, even if they're not sure what it means (ii) there won't be that many drivers (nor pedestrians) at present

    Hang on, is this different to Pride month?

    Or is Woke virtue-signalling just an all year long affair now with just a different "event" for each calendar month?
    Yes, it is different to pride month.

    One is to educate, one is to party.
    So we agree it's Woke creep then.

    Last year, Pride "month" started in late May and didn't fizzle out until mid July.
    No it isn't.

    I have some young gay and LGBTI+ friends.

    They didn't know that for example that being gay wasn't decriminalised in Scotland & Northern Ireland until the 80s.

    That section 28 was a thing.

    Plenty of their young heterosexual friends didn't know that either.

    Most of them didn't know about Section 28 as well.
    The Lords defeat of its repeal was "a victory for commonsense" if I recall.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,530
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Hand to hand combat here............. brave man goes for all or nothing
    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/01/my-sworn-evidence-on-the-sturgeon-affair/

    What's your thinking on this?

    I'm hugely pissed off with Scottish politics at the moment. But that aside I quite like both Sturgeon and Salmond. I was shocked that the BBC allowed Kirsty Wark free reign to mount a televised assassination of the latter.

    My guess is that Salmond has just proved himself to be 'of the last century' and that Sturgeon has proved herself to be complacent.
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Hand to hand combat here............. brave man goes for all or nothing
    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/01/my-sworn-evidence-on-the-sturgeon-affair/

    What's your thinking on this?

    I'm hugely pissed off with Scottish politics at the moment. But that aside I quite like both Sturgeon and Salmond. I was shocked that the BBC allowed Kirsty Wark free reign to mount a televised assassination of the latter.

    My guess is that Salmond has just proved himself to be 'of the last century' and that Sturgeon has proved herself to be complacent.
    That was a fascinating read, thanks @malcolmg. His is a very interesting account, though I think he washes Alex Salmond far cleaner (of being a randy old sod) than is deserved - probably because this is not his personal experience with Salmond. For my part, when Salmond was first arrested, two SNP supporters in the Pub were speaking loudly at the bar at what a nightmare he was around women. For my mind, if the rank and file knew all about it, it must have been 'a thing' whether illegal or not.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,800
    Wish I’d saved the original when I read it this afternoon - would have been interested to see where the added redactions are.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,897
    sarissa said:

    Wish I’d saved the original when I read it this afternoon - would have been interested to see where the added redactions are.
    https://tabithatroughton.wordpress.com/2021/01/27/hma-vs-craig-john-murray-in-the-court-of-appeals-27-january/

    Report of Mr M's trial - insofar as it has gone. Will be interesting to see the written judgement in due course.
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    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Hand to hand combat here............. brave man goes for all or nothing
    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/01/my-sworn-evidence-on-the-sturgeon-affair/

    What's your thinking on this?

    I'm hugely pissed off with Scottish politics at the moment. But that aside I quite like both Sturgeon and Salmond. I was shocked that the BBC allowed Kirsty Wark free reign to mount a televised assassination of the latter.

    My guess is that Salmond has just proved himself to be 'of the last century' and that Sturgeon has proved herself to be complacent.
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Hand to hand combat here............. brave man goes for all or nothing
    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/01/my-sworn-evidence-on-the-sturgeon-affair/

    What's your thinking on this?

    I'm hugely pissed off with Scottish politics at the moment. But that aside I quite like both Sturgeon and Salmond. I was shocked that the BBC allowed Kirsty Wark free reign to mount a televised assassination of the latter.

    My guess is that Salmond has just proved himself to be 'of the last century' and that Sturgeon has proved herself to be complacent.
    That was a fascinating read, thanks @malcolmg. His is a very interesting account, though I think he washes Alex Salmond far cleaner (of being a randy old sod) than is deserved - probably because this is not his personal experience with Salmond. For my part, when Salmond was first arrested, two SNP supporters in the Pub were speaking loudly at the bar at what a nightmare he was around women. For my mind, if the rank and file knew all about it, it must have been 'a thing' whether illegal or not.
    He is a bit like Clinton and Kennedy (any of them), then?
This discussion has been closed.