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Two things we don’t yet know – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 17 in General
Two things we don’t yet know – politicalbetting.com

Donald Rumsfeld once famously said:

Read the full story here

«13456710

Comments

  • Mary_BattyMary_Batty Posts: 630
    edited January 17
    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,930
    edited January 17
    Second.

    Question: are we due another countup before the next boundary review?

    And if so, what impact will these movements have?
  • eekeek Posts: 11,035

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 46,538
    edited January 17
    Dip in jabs (vs previous. day): ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099
    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,161
    Fourth and stinking, like Trump, iPad typo, but the iPad always knows best.
  • Mary_BattyMary_Batty Posts: 630
    eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    That's a much more intelligent response than I deserved, and a really quite useful addition to the Rumsfeld canon. Bravo.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099
    IanB2 said:

    Fourth and stinking, like Trump, iPad typo, but the iPad always knows best.

    Or rather, sixth but fourth once only real posts are counted?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863
    FPT
    IanB2 said:

    » show previous quotes
    There are no countries outside Europe that are any worse. So what you are really saying is that we have the sixth highest death rate in the entire world. Which doesn’t justify your commentary.

    Boris worshippers will never admit that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,019
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
    Quite, but is it not determined now by HoC rules and the Speaker anyway?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,161
    On topic:

    Being outside the EU means that it will always be in our news, as it is in Norway. My guess is that people will slowly come to see the harm that the Tories’ anti-EU prejudice has inflicted upon the rest of us.

    If London takes a relative knock compared to the rest of the UK, in the long run that could prove to be a benefit, including also to those (other than the super-rich and ‘investors’ in London property) who live there.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
    Leaving aside your snide remarks , aka lie about matters affecting Scotland, NO I do not believe so , they would do the right thing and vote accordingly. Both English unionist parties are cheeks of the same arse.
  • eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    The black swan I've added to my list is another insurrection in America.

    Here's a theory for you, the GOP win the House back in 2022, the GOP make Trump the Speaker of the House (you don't need to be a member of the House to be Speaker.)

    Next, Trump supporters kill Biden and Harris, and guess who becomes President? Trump.

    Normally I'd chastise myself for spouting whatif bollocks like this, but it does look scarily plausible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,161
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth and stinking, like Trump, iPad typo, but the iPad always knows best.

    Or rather, sixth but fourth once only real posts are counted?
    The last minute fake news vote dump pushed me bigly down the table.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 52,262

    Dip in jabs (vs previous. day): ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    Third? Who are these greedy buggers?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,440
    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,698

    Dip in jabs: ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    People are getting third jabs?!
    Are any of them Stanley Johnson?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
    Quite, but is it not determined now by HoC rules and the Speaker anyway?
    Which can be overridden/changed by a majority vote.

    It wouldn’t look good in England - so Starmer might think twice about it - but strategically it would be smart tactics for the SNP.

    And no party which includes Ian Blackford in its leadership or indeed pulls stunts like this can claim to have principles on the subject:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51378669
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,271

    Dip in jabs (vs previous. day): ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    The predicted weekend effect.

    Whether that is fewer vaccinations or a delay in reporting we'll see.

    Still it could be worse.

    France went from 70k on Friday to 24k yesterday:

    https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/

    Significant reductions in Italy and Denmark as well:

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,866

    eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    The black swan I've added to my list is another insurrection in America.

    Here's a theory for you, the GOP win the House back in 2022, the GOP make Trump the Speaker of the House (you don't need to be a member of the House to be Speaker.)

    Next, Trump supporters kill Biden and Harris, and guess who becomes President? Trump.

    Normally I'd chastise myself for spouting whatif bollocks like this, but it does look scarily plausible.
    One of the worst things to happen to the Republicans (or best depending on your political outlook) has been Trump poisoning the well for voting. It's difficult to see how they recover from that to win a majority in the House, it's already lost them their senate majority.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,161
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    IanB2 said:

    » show previous quotes
    There are no countries outside Europe that are any worse. So what you are really saying is that we have the sixth highest death rate in the entire world. Which doesn’t justify your commentary.

    Boris worshippers will never admit that.

    You should be the ultimate Bozo worshipper, since that Eton educated plonker is going to deliver you what would otherwise have been unachievable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,965
    edited January 17

    Dip in jabs (vs previous. day): ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    That's the Indy front page for tomorrow....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
    Leaving aside your snide remarks , aka lie about matters affecting Scotland,
    Well, we would never do such things to you Malc, otherwise of course there wouldn’t be much left to read :smile:

    (You know I love you really, despite all the rampant xenophobia.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 90,129
    edited January 17
    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863
    Fat chance of this happening.............

    Angela Rayner

    Tory MPs have been told to abstain on our motion tomorrow to stop their £1,000 cut to Universal Credit for 6 million families.

    Hopefully Tory MPs will do the right thing and vote with us to protect hard-pressed families. Their constituents won't forget.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,965

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    By compressed working, you mean compressed between your posting on PB?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,019
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
    Quite, but is it not determined now by HoC rules and the Speaker anyway?
    Which can be overridden/changed by a majority vote.

    It wouldn’t look good in England - so Starmer might think twice about it - but strategically it would be smart tactics for the SNP.

    And no party which includes Ian Blackford in its leadership or indeed pulls stunts like this can claim to have principles on the subject:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51378669
    Not a stunt but a legitimate point re Barnett consequentials - one of the key exceptions to the overt geographical rule, as they always have been.

    I must say, however, I hadn't thought about changing Mr Cameron's EVEL rules. Interesting point. But it doesn't sound likely, for one other very good reason: too many Labour MPs would be worried about their own seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 52,262

    Dip in jabs (vs previous. day): ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    The predicted weekend effect.

    Whether that is fewer vaccinations or a delay in reporting we'll see.

    Still it could be worse.

    France went from 70k on Friday to 24k yesterday:

    https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/

    Significant reductions in Italy and Denmark as well:

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
    An ambitious goal for France by the end of Jan, 1 million people.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,294
    For once Lord Sumption might regret not having been silenced.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9156849/Lord-Sumption-tells-Stage-4-cancer-sufferer-life-valuable-others.html

    Former Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption today told a Stage 4 bowel cancer sufferer that her life was 'less valuable' than others.
  • eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    I'd say Covid is an unknown unknown, since nobody knew about it and nobody realised it would shake governments. Perhaps climate change is an unknown known; it is a known but many politicians act as though it does not affect government decisions. The unknown part would be that they were unaware it would blow them off course. Many still are.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863

    Dip in jabs: ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    People are getting third jabs?!
    Are any of them Stanley Johnson?
    probably all of them, apart from the chumocracy
  • DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    By compressed working, you mean compressed between your posting on PB?
    Heh.

    I used to do 6am to 6/7pm Mondays and Tuesday, 'normal hours' on Wednesday & Thursday, and finish early on a Friday.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    I could enjoy home working in the summer, although teaching at home really isn’t great.

    During the winter I wouldn’t want to. As an honorary Cardi, I’m too much of a skinflint to pay for the extra heating.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,866

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    I'm going to be back to 5 days a week in office as before, but being within very short walking distance of the tube station on either side definitely helps.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,698

    Dip in jabs (vs previous. day): ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    That's the Indy front page for tomorrow....
    Since there's a typo, Guardian surely?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,118
    Donald Rumsfeld's remarks actually made a lot of sense.

    FWIW, I don't agree with the central point of the author. I think Brexit will increasingly decrease in salience as a dividing issue over time, although other things might take its place, and the effect of the great radicalising madrassa that is London can be exaggerated.

    Firstly, the seats affected are relatively few in number, and those moving out into the shires are rather dispersed, and secondly, just as London may have affected their politics on the way in so might living in the countryside do so on the way out. One chief difference being far more reliant on a car.
  • MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    The black swan I've added to my list is another insurrection in America.

    Here's a theory for you, the GOP win the House back in 2022, the GOP make Trump the Speaker of the House (you don't need to be a member of the House to be Speaker.)

    Next, Trump supporters kill Biden and Harris, and guess who becomes President? Trump.

    Normally I'd chastise myself for spouting whatif bollocks like this, but it does look scarily plausible.
    One of the worst things to happen to the Republicans (or best depending on your political outlook) has been Trump poisoning the well for voting. It's difficult to see how they recover from that to win a majority in the House, it's already lost them their senate majority.
    The usual trend is for the party that holds the White House loses Congress at the midterms.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
    Leaving aside your snide remarks , aka lie about matters affecting Scotland,
    Well, we would never do such things to you Malc, otherwise of course there wouldn’t be much left to read :smile:

    (You know I love you really, despite all the rampant xenophobia.)
    you are not quite as bad as the rabid Boris lovers, but lately you have added a few whoppers. Easy to get drawn in unwittingly by Tory malfeasance, beware and take care.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,770
    edited January 17
    FPT
    Mary_Batty said:


    ' A more careful reading of what went down in 1978-79 would help you realise it's not an episode that Labour ought to be keen to relive.

    Besides, what do you think would have happened across that summer of 79 that would have saved Labour from the thumping it got in May? There would have had to be an election before five more months were up.'

    Having made the disastrous - and unforgiveable - miscalculation not to hold an election in Autumn 1978, Callaghan should have called the GE for 7th June 1979 - which was five weeks later than the actual date 3rd May. That would have coincided with the first direct elections to the European Parliament , and made it a fair bit more likely that the Common Market would have featured prominently in the campaign. At the time Labour was the more Eurosceptic of the main parties - as was the SNP. People such as John Silkin - the Agriculture & Fisheries Minister - would have shifted a few votes back to Labour . Beyond that, it would have given Callaghan a further five weeks to help memories of the Winter of Discontent to fade. As a party leader , he was hopeless. Had this happened, I suspect the Tory lead on Polling Day would have been in the 2% - 3% range - rather than the 7% margin achieved on 3rd May. Thatcher would then have had to deal with a Hung Parliament - assuming the Unionists had been able to put her into No 10.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099
    edited January 17
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
    Quite, but is it not determined now by HoC rules and the Speaker anyway?
    Which can be overridden/changed by a majority vote.

    It wouldn’t look good in England - so Starmer might think twice about it - but strategically it would be smart tactics for the SNP.

    And no party which includes Ian Blackford in its leadership or indeed pulls stunts like this can claim to have principles on the subject:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51378669
    Not a stunt but a legitimate point re Barnett consequentials - one of the key exceptions to the overt geographical rule, as they always have been.

    I must say, however, I hadn't thought about changing Mr Cameron's EVEL rules. Interesting point. But it doesn't sound likely, for one other very good reason: too many Labour MPs would be worried about their own seats.
    It would depend, to a great degree, on whether they thought the prospect of getting rid of a 14 year Tory government would play better than allowing a load of MPs who represent a country with autonomy over health, education, benefits etc to vote on matters they don’t control.

    Sure, it would infuriate Tory voters, but ultimately Starmer has his base to shore up as well. Getting rid of the blues probably trumps principles for them. In fact, we know it does because although they twice voted for that nutter Corbyn they have since rejected Long Bailey.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,866

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    The black swan I've added to my list is another insurrection in America.

    Here's a theory for you, the GOP win the House back in 2022, the GOP make Trump the Speaker of the House (you don't need to be a member of the House to be Speaker.)

    Next, Trump supporters kill Biden and Harris, and guess who becomes President? Trump.

    Normally I'd chastise myself for spouting whatif bollocks like this, but it does look scarily plausible.
    One of the worst things to happen to the Republicans (or best depending on your political outlook) has been Trump poisoning the well for voting. It's difficult to see how they recover from that to win a majority in the House, it's already lost them their senate majority.
    The usual trend is for the party that holds the White House loses Congress at the midterms.
    For sure, but voters not turning out because they don't believe their vote will be counted is going to be a reall problem for the GOP in 2022.
  • FossFoss Posts: 232

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    Sat in obscure, untranslated journals from before digital publishing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    By compressed working, you mean compressed between your posting on PB?
    It means pretending you have done lots and skiving off. Leave computer logged in to office and pretend you do 3 14 hour days and skive Thurs / Fri. Tory productivity.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,698

    For once Lord Sumption might regret not having been silenced.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9156849/Lord-Sumption-tells-Stage-4-cancer-sufferer-life-valuable-others.html

    Former Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption today told a Stage 4 bowel cancer sufferer that her life was 'less valuable' than others.

    Christ, has anyone Ratnered themselves as much as Sumption over Covid? Everyone knew Tobes, JHB, Delingpole, Piers etc were fools and/or knaves already.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,697

    eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    The black swan I've added to my list is another insurrection in America.

    Here's a theory for you, the GOP win the House back in 2022, the GOP make Trump the Speaker of the House (you don't need to be a member of the House to be Speaker.)

    Next, Trump supporters kill Biden and Harris, and guess who becomes President? Trump.

    Normally I'd chastise myself for spouting whatif bollocks like this, but it does look scarily plausible.
    Qanon might turn out to be true. That would have massive implications for our politics. Lozza Fox is so big in the Next PM market that he isn't even in it. Worth a nibble?
  • MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    I'm going to be back to 5 days a week in office as before, but being within very short walking distance of the tube station on either side definitely helps.
    It depends on the individual person, I'm a single parent, I've felt incredibly guilty on dumping most of my parenting duties on my parents for the last few years.
  • TresTres Posts: 324

    eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    I'd say Covid is an unknown unknown, since nobody knew about it and nobody realised it would shake governments. Perhaps climate change is an unknown known; it is a known but many politicians act as though it does not affect government decisions. The unknown part would be that they were unaware it would blow them off course. Many still are.
    SARS and MERS outbreaks were definitely a known before Dec 2019.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,965

    For once Lord Sumption might regret not having been silenced.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9156849/Lord-Sumption-tells-Stage-4-cancer-sufferer-life-valuable-others.html

    Former Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption today told a Stage 4 bowel cancer sufferer that her life was 'less valuable' than others.

    Its the way he tells em....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    I could enjoy home working in the summer, although teaching at home really isn’t great.

    During the winter I wouldn’t want to. As an honorary Cardi, I’m too much of a skinflint to pay for the extra heating.
    I love it , have done it since I came back from USA in 2000, though you being a teacher makes it impossible in my mind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    I could enjoy home working in the summer, although teaching at home really isn’t great.

    During the winter I wouldn’t want to. As an honorary Cardi, I’m too much of a skinflint to pay for the extra heating.
    I love it , have done it since I came back from USA in 2000, though you being a teacher makes it impossible in my mind.
    Well, to put it mildly it makes it bloody difficult. I am working way harder now than I did when standing in front of a class, and that’s even allowing for 2 hours of commuting being removed.

    But then, trying to teach in schools under the dafter restrictions the DfE dreamed up to show willing was bloody difficult too.
  • Mary_BattyMary_Batty Posts: 630
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Mary_Batty said:


    ' A more careful reading of what went down in 1978-79 would help you realise it's not an episode that Labour ought to be keen to relive.

    Besides, what do you think would have happened across that summer of 79 that would have saved Labour from the thumping it got in May? There would have had to be an election before five more months were up.'

    Having made the disastrous - and unforgiveable - miscalculation not to hold an election in Autumn 1978, Callaghan should have called the GE for 7th June 1979 - which was five weeks later than the actual date 3rd May. That would have coincided with the first direct elections to the European Parliament , and made it a fair bit more likely that the Common Market would have featured prominently in the campaign. At the time Labour was the more Eurosceptic of the main parties - as was the SNP. People such as John Silkin - the Agriculture & Fisheries Minister - would have shifted a few votes back to Labour . Beyond that, it would have given Callaghan a further five weeks to help memories of the Winter of Discontent to fade. As a party leader , he was hopeless. Had this happened, I suspect the Tory lead on Polling Day would have been in the 2% - 3% range - rather than the 7% margin achieved on 3rd May. Thatcher would then have had to deal with a Hung Parliament - assuming the Unionists had been able to put her into No 10.

    Fair play for having an answer. I'm not convinced, but we've no way to prove each other wrong.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863

    For once Lord Sumption might regret not having been silenced.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9156849/Lord-Sumption-tells-Stage-4-cancer-sufferer-life-valuable-others.html

    Former Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption today told a Stage 4 bowel cancer sufferer that her life was 'less valuable' than others.

    Would not be hard to guess who he votes for in elections.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,965
    An Australian Open tennis player has been warned for breaching strict isolation rules by “opening his door” to talk to his friends, as players complain about “insane” quarantine requirements ahead of the tournament.

    You mean you are being treated the same as everybody else that Australia has let in....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 9,337
    edited January 17
    Can you have further powers of unknowns so to speak? Things we know we don't know that we don't know, and so on.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    I could enjoy home working in the summer, although teaching at home really isn’t great.

    During the winter I wouldn’t want to. As an honorary Cardi, I’m too much of a skinflint to pay for the extra heating.
    I love it , have done it since I came back from USA in 2000, though you being a teacher makes it impossible in my mind.
    Well, to put it mildly it makes it bloody difficult. I am working way harder now than I did when standing in front of a class, and that’s even allowing for 2 hours of commuting being removed.

    But then, trying to teach in schools under the dafter restrictions the DfE dreamed up to show willing was bloody difficult too.
    Lots will just not get much from home schooling either, sooner it can be dumped the better.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,118
    3 days a week for me.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 9,337
    O/T

    "We gambled away £11.8 million: it’s time to make the betting industry pay
    A group of 30 people, from all walks of life, want tougher regulation to save others from the same fate" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-gambled-away-11-8-million-its-time-to-make-the-betting-industry-pay-0zln9xfv8
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,698
    edited January 17

    For once Lord Sumption might regret not having been silenced.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9156849/Lord-Sumption-tells-Stage-4-cancer-sufferer-life-valuable-others.html

    Former Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption today told a Stage 4 bowel cancer sufferer that her life was 'less valuable' than others.

    Christ, has anyone Ratnered themselves as much as Sumption over Covid? Everyone knew Tobes, JHB, Delingpole, Piers etc were fools and/or knaves already.
    Slight Sir Les Patterson vibe from Sumper's get up there.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,866

    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    I'm going to be back to 5 days a week in office as before, but being within very short walking distance of the tube station on either side definitely helps.
    It depends on the individual person, I'm a single parent, I've felt incredibly guilty on dumping most of my parenting duties on my parents for the last few years.
    Yeah of course, if we had kids I could see both myself and my wife reducing our working week to 4 days with Tuesday to Thursday in nursery. My company as a nice big new building in Liverpool Street and there's been talk of a crèche and heavily subsidised childcare for employees so we're waiting to see what comes of that. Not sure about taking the kids on the tube at 8am though!
  • eekeek Posts: 11,035
    Boris has found a way to knock Sunak down a peg or 10 by giving him an impossible task to reduce red tape...

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099
    malcolmg said:

    For once Lord Sumption might regret not having been silenced.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9156849/Lord-Sumption-tells-Stage-4-cancer-sufferer-life-valuable-others.html

    Former Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption today told a Stage 4 bowel cancer sufferer that her life was 'less valuable' than others.

    Would not be hard to guess who he votes for in elections.
    Doesn’t value humans? Definitely a Green.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 10,506
    MattW said:

    Second.

    Question: are we due another countup before the next boundary review?

    And if so, what impact will these movements have?

    Answer. No. The electoral figures used come from March and were recently published by the ONS I believe.
    London +2 seats.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,128
    For once I am in agreement with Alastair - not only in his overall piece but on the specifics of Rumsfeld. I don't think his comment was in any way difficult to understand and was also very perceptive. One of the many problems with modern life is the refusal to understand there are many things that not only we don't know, but we haven't even conceived they might be possible.

    What I would say I disagree with Alastair over is the nature of the emigration from London. My understanding was that this was mostly in the form of European ex-pats leaving both London and the UK to return to their countries of origin. As such I don't see how this exodus helps Labour at the national level and it only hinders them at the local level where EU citizens had the vote in local elections.

    Mind you, as the piece points out, the whole thing is in such turmoil at the moment I am not sure it is possible to draw any definite conclusions about the possible after effects
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    For once Lord Sumption might regret not having been silenced.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9156849/Lord-Sumption-tells-Stage-4-cancer-sufferer-life-valuable-others.html

    Former Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption today told a Stage 4 bowel cancer sufferer that her life was 'less valuable' than others.

    Would not be hard to guess who he votes for in elections.
    Doesn’t value humans? Definitely a Green.
    Not quite what I was thinking!
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 23
    I'm not going back to regularly commuting into my office in London unless I'm forced to. I'm £5000 a year better off not paying for an annual season ticket and my struggling local high street is getting the benefit of my money when I can't be bothered to cook. I currently live in a two bedroom flat so I don't have a massive amount of space but it's my home and I still prefer being there to a dull office.

    My work is very stop start (I rely on other people to refer cases to me for consideration) so frankly it's wonderful to not have to pretend to be busy when my workload is light. When it's heavy I'm just as productive.

    Of course if my employer wants me back in the office I'll go but I don't see it as the business of the government to encourage me to support the megalopolis by going back to the commute
  • RobDRobD Posts: 52,262
    Good to see the Tory government putting such a high priority on protecting the blue rinsers.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,035

    For once I am in agreement with Alastair - not only in his overall piece but on the specifics of Rumsfeld. I don't think his comment was in any way difficult to understand and was also very perceptive. One of the many problems with modern life is the refusal to understand there are many things that not only we don't know, but we haven't even conceived they might be possible.

    What I would say I disagree with Alastair over is the nature of the emigration from London. My understanding was that this was mostly in the form of European ex-pats leaving both London and the UK to return to their countries of origin. As such I don't see how this exodus helps Labour at the national level and it only hinders them at the local level where EU citizens had the vote in local elections.

    Mind you, as the piece points out, the whole thing is in such turmoil at the moment I am not sure it is possible to draw any definite conclusions about the possible after effects

    I don't think it's even possible to identify who has left London. We know people have but is it richer people heading home but planning to return when the required / opportunity arrives or have they left for good.

    We really won't know for a while..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099

    For once I am in agreement with Alastair - not only in his overall piece but on the specifics of Rumsfeld. I don't think his comment was in any way difficult to understand and was also very perceptive. One of the many problems with modern life is the refusal to understand there are many things that not only we don't know, but we haven't even conceived they might be possible.

    What I would say I disagree with Alastair over is the nature of the emigration from London. My understanding was that this was mostly in the form of European ex-pats leaving both London and the UK to return to their countries of origin. As such I don't see how this exodus helps Labour at the national level and it only hinders them at the local level where EU citizens had the vote in local elections.

    Mind you, as the piece points out, the whole thing is in such turmoil at the moment I am not sure it is possible to draw any definite conclusions about the possible after effects

    I’ve also always wondered why people said Rumsfeld’s words were hard to understand. I thought frankly the key problem was they were a statement of the bleeding obvious, but given how dim journalists are turning out to be I’m starting to have more sympathy with him.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,035
    Stereodog said:

    I'm not going back to regularly commuting into my office in London unless I'm forced to. I'm £5000 a year better off not paying for an annual season ticket and my struggling local high street is getting the benefit of my money when I can't be bothered to cook. I currently live in a two bedroom flat so I don't have a massive amount of space but it's my home and I still prefer being there to a dull office.

    My work is very stop start (I rely on other people to refer cases to me for consideration) so frankly it's wonderful to not have to pretend to be busy when my workload is light. When it's heavy I'm just as productive.

    Of course if my employer wants me back in the office I'll go but I don't see it as the business of the government to encourage me to support the megalopolis by going back to the commute

    A lot of levelling across the UK could be done by people simply on the basis that I only need to be in the office for a couple of days so I may as well live 300 miles away, catch the train and book a hotel.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,698
    Bit late if they're asking the government to resign.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 11,954

    Dip in jabs (vs previous. day): ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    The predicted weekend effect.

    Whether that is fewer vaccinations or a delay in reporting we'll see.

    Still it could be worse.

    France went from 70k on Friday to 24k yesterday:

    https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/

    Significant reductions in Italy and Denmark as well:

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
    Has anyone come up with an explanation for the sustained decrease in the rate in Israel ?

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&region=World

    Note that the data is 7 day averaged, so the fall is sustained.

    For the UK, to give some idea of where we are on that chart -

    300K per day = 0.45% per day
    500K per day = 0.75% per day
    670K per day = 1% per day

    Since the data is averaged, the recent rises in the UK are not fully represented.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,440
    malcolmg said:

    For once Lord Sumption might regret not having been silenced.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9156849/Lord-Sumption-tells-Stage-4-cancer-sufferer-life-valuable-others.html

    Former Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption today told a Stage 4 bowel cancer sufferer that her life was 'less valuable' than others.

    Would not be hard to guess who he votes for in elections.
    Given he’s been steadfast in his opposition to Brexit, not the Tories, which is what I think you were getting at.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 90,129
    edited January 17
    Stereodog said:

    I'm not going back to regularly commuting into my office in London unless I'm forced to. I'm £5000 a year better off not paying for an annual season ticket and my struggling local high street is getting the benefit of my money when I can't be bothered to cook. I currently live in a two bedroom flat so I don't have a massive amount of space but it's my home and I still prefer being there to a dull office.

    My work is very stop start (I rely on other people to refer cases to me for consideration) so frankly it's wonderful to not have to pretend to be busy when my workload is light. When it's heavy I'm just as productive.

    Of course if my employer wants me back in the office I'll go but I don't see it as the business of the government to encourage me to support the megalopolis by going back to the commute

    One of the things my firm (and many others say the same I've heard) has noticed that there's been an improvement in productivity due to the lack of the commute.

    I'm waking up an hour later than normal, and spending two and a half hours a day commuting.

    That's a bigger benefit for me than the £5k I've saved in the last year on train tickets.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 10,506

    Donald Rumsfeld's remarks actually made a lot of sense.

    They are based on Johari Windows. Widely used in therapy.
    Known to self and others = arena.
    Known to self not to others = facade.
    Known to others not to self = blind spot.
    Known to neither = unknown.

    One aim can be to explore ways of expanding the amount of "stuff" in the arena.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,863
    Interesting article ...............
    HMS Britain is Sinking – Launch Scottish Independence Lifeboat Urgently
    https://sputniknews.com/columnists/202101151081771607-hms-britain-is-sinking--launch-scottish-independence-lifeboat-urgently/
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,128
    edited January 17

    eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    I'd say Covid is an unknown unknown, since nobody knew about it and nobody realised it would shake governments. Perhaps climate change is an unknown known; it is a known but many politicians act as though it does not affect government decisions. The unknown part would be that they were unaware it would blow them off course. Many still are.
    I have always viewed Covid as a Known Unknown. Everyone knew (or at least should have known) there was another pandemic just waiting out there to come and wreck everything - it was inevitable. What we didn't know is exactly when it would happen or how severe it would be. In the end we were pretty lucky with the second as it turns out to have been one of the milder possible plagues that has caused us such problems. It really could have been far far worse.

    Another Known Unknown which we really should be taking more seriously is another Carrington event. It is only a matter of time - and judging from the historic record probably short time - before we get another full on blast from the sun and the consequences if we are not prepared will make this virus look like a sniffle in terms of its economic, political and social impacts. We need our governments to take these things far more seriously and be far more prepared than we are at the moment for global crisis.
  • FossFoss Posts: 232
    edited January 17
    Full time WFH if possible. For the majory of the last 15 years it's been rare for my entire team to be in the same timezone, let alone the same office.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,965
    edited January 17

    Stereodog said:

    I'm not going back to regularly commuting into my office in London unless I'm forced to. I'm £5000 a year better off not paying for an annual season ticket and my struggling local high street is getting the benefit of my money when I can't be bothered to cook. I currently live in a two bedroom flat so I don't have a massive amount of space but it's my home and I still prefer being there to a dull office.

    My work is very stop start (I rely on other people to refer cases to me for consideration) so frankly it's wonderful to not have to pretend to be busy when my workload is light. When it's heavy I'm just as productive.

    Of course if my employer wants me back in the office I'll go but I don't see it as the business of the government to encourage me to support the megalopolis by going back to the commute

    One of the things my firm (and many others say the same I've heard) has noticed that there's been an improvement in productivity due to the lack of the commute.

    I'm waking up an hour later than normal, and spending two and a half hours a day commuting.

    That's a bigger benefit for me than the £5k I've said in the last year on train tickets.
    Is it the lack of commute or that you can't just go and bother somebody at their desk, which ends up in chit-chatting for 10-15 mins? Then there is birthday cakes, a meeting about somebody not keeping the fridge tidy, etc?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,440
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    My firm has suggested doing a “virtual commute” ie going for a long walk to symbolically separate the working day from the rest of the day. A lot of already successful people with a large amount of space are loving working from home but the have nots much less so. I’m very much on the fence about the future of home working. I’ve noticed a significant waning in enthusiasm since this all began last March and a lot of my employer clients are worried about productivity.

    I think I'll be going back to work at least three days a week, I miss my colleagues.

    There's just too many distractions, particularly if you have (young) kids.

    The most stressed employee who has been working from home is the one who has broadband speed of circa 5 Mbps and has to share that.

    Before the plague I used to do compressed working, I think that might become more popular.
    I'm going to be back to 5 days a week in office as before, but being within very short walking distance of the tube station on either side definitely helps.
    It depends on the individual person, I'm a single parent, I've felt incredibly guilty on dumping most of my parenting duties on my parents for the last few years.
    Yeah of course, if we had kids I could see both myself and my wife reducing our working week to 4 days with Tuesday to Thursday in nursery. My company as a nice big new building in Liverpool Street and there's been talk of a crèche and heavily subsidised childcare for employees so we're waiting to see what comes of that. Not sure about taking the kids on the tube at 8am though!
    I really don’t know. I’ve not enjoyed working from home one bit so I have to be careful of confirmation bias/normalcy bias kicking in when I speak of a reaction against homeworking. It may be wishful thinking on my part. But I definitely think it favours those who already have space in which to do so. I know a couple who are litigators at two different law firms and live in a three bed semi with their young child - and I do wonder how they do client confidentiality,
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,099
  • Stereodog said:

    I'm not going back to regularly commuting into my office in London unless I'm forced to. I'm £5000 a year better off not paying for an annual season ticket and my struggling local high street is getting the benefit of my money when I can't be bothered to cook. I currently live in a two bedroom flat so I don't have a massive amount of space but it's my home and I still prefer being there to a dull office.

    My work is very stop start (I rely on other people to refer cases to me for consideration) so frankly it's wonderful to not have to pretend to be busy when my workload is light. When it's heavy I'm just as productive.

    Of course if my employer wants me back in the office I'll go but I don't see it as the business of the government to encourage me to support the megalopolis by going back to the commute

    One of the things my firm (and many others say the same I've heard) has noticed that there's been an improvement in productivity due to the lack of the commute.

    I'm waking up an hour later than normal, and spending two and a half hours a day commuting.

    That's a bigger benefit for me than the £5k I've said in the last year on train tickets.
    Is it the lack of commute or that you can't just go and bother somebody at their desk, which ends up in chit-chatting for 10-15 mins? Then there is birthday cakes, a meeting about somebody not keeping the fridge tidy, etc?
    Mostly the former.

    Those of us in the desolate North have to deal with really bad performance from the train companies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 11,954
    Andy_JS said:

    Can you have further powers of unknowns so to speak? Things we know we don't know that we don't know, and so on.

    You are Travis Dane and I claim my 100 billion dollars.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,271

    Dip in jabs (vs previous. day): ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    The predicted weekend effect.

    Whether that is fewer vaccinations or a delay in reporting we'll see.

    Still it could be worse.

    France went from 70k on Friday to 24k yesterday:

    https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/

    Significant reductions in Italy and Denmark as well:

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
    Has anyone come up with an explanation for the sustained decrease in the rate in Israel ?

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&region=World

    Note that the data is 7 day averaged, so the fall is sustained.

    For the UK, to give some idea of where we are on that chart -

    300K per day = 0.45% per day
    500K per day = 0.75% per day
    670K per day = 1% per day

    Since the data is averaged, the recent rises in the UK are not fully represented.
    Supply constraints seems like the obvious answer.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,770

    eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    I'd say Covid is an unknown unknown, since nobody knew about it and nobody realised it would shake governments. Perhaps climate change is an unknown known; it is a known but many politicians act as though it does not affect government decisions. The unknown part would be that they were unaware it would blow them off course. Many still are.
    I have always viewed Covid as a Known Unknown. Everyone knew (or at least should have known) there was another pandemic just waiting out there to come and wreck everything - it was inevitable. What we didn't know is exactly when it would happen or how severe it would be. In the end we were pretty lucky with the second as it turns out to have been one of the milder possible plagues that has caused us such problems. It really could have been far far worse.

    Another Known Unknown which we really should be taking more seriously is another Carrington event. It is only a matter of time - and judging from the historic record probably short time - before we get another full on blast from the sun and the consequences if we are not prepared will make this virus look like a sniffle in terms of its economic, political and social impacts. We need our governments to take these things far more seriously and be far more prepared than we are at the moment for global crisis.
    Monbiot wrote an article about precautions that should be taken for a Carrington Event.

    I can see the apologia scratched onto walls now - "Who could possibly have foreseen that this might happen?" - Lots of people, but you didn't listen to them...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 12,243
    malcolmg said:

    Interesting article ...............
    HMS Britain is Sinking – Launch Scottish Independence Lifeboat Urgently
    https://sputniknews.com/columnists/202101151081771607-hms-britain-is-sinking--launch-scottish-independence-lifeboat-urgently/

    Sputnik? oh dear......
  • Mary_BattyMary_Batty Posts: 630
    Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting article ...............
    HMS Britain is Sinking – Launch Scottish Independence Lifeboat Urgently
    https://sputniknews.com/columnists/202101151081771607-hms-britain-is-sinking--launch-scottish-independence-lifeboat-urgently/

    Sputnik? oh dear......
    Yup. Smh.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 11,954

    Dip in jabs (vs previous. day): ENGLAND ONLY: 277,209 total (-15%), 275,434 first (-14%) 1,775 third (-53%)

    The predicted weekend effect.

    Whether that is fewer vaccinations or a delay in reporting we'll see.

    Still it could be worse.

    France went from 70k on Friday to 24k yesterday:

    https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/

    Significant reductions in Italy and Denmark as well:

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
    Has anyone come up with an explanation for the sustained decrease in the rate in Israel ?

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&region=World

    Note that the data is 7 day averaged, so the fall is sustained.

    For the UK, to give some idea of where we are on that chart -

    300K per day = 0.45% per day
    500K per day = 0.75% per day
    670K per day = 1% per day

    Since the data is averaged, the recent rises in the UK are not fully represented.
    Supply constraints seems like the obvious answer.
    Yes - but I have been unable to find anything definite. I would have thought that the press in Israel (at least) would have been all over this....

    Or do no journalists even bother to look at sites such as ourworldindata let alone the primary sources?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,440
    malcolmg said:

    Interesting article ...............
    HMS Britain is Sinking –Launch Scottish Independence Lifeboat Urgently
    https://sputniknews.com/columnists/202101151081771607-hms-britain-is-sinking--launch-scottish-independence-lifeboat-urgently/

    Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting article ...............
    HMS Britain is Sinking – Launch Scottish Independence Lifeboat Urgently
    https://sputniknews.com/columnists/202101151081771607-hms-britain-is-sinking--launch-scottish-independence-lifeboat-urgently/

    Sputnik? oh dear......
    Johns Hopkins University statistics are to be questioned but a Russian State Propaganda unit think piece is “interesting”. I sometimes wonder if Malc is actually in an office block somewhere in St Petersburg.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 50,325
    Good article AM.

    I agree with the consensus over Rumsfeld, it was a very good quote that summed it up well. COVID was a classic "known unknown", we knew another pandemic would happen eventually but no idea when, how or what.
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
    No, the SNP are agents of chaos. A dysfunctional Westminster suits them perfectly.

    If the SNP don't vote on English matters that's perfect for them - Westminster is broken with an impotent government. Plus if Labour desperately need the SNP to vote for them then the SNP can rinse them for all they're worth to get it through.
  • ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:



    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    No future for Scottish Labour if it remains Unionist, former minister says
    A FORMER Labour minister has said there is no future for Labour in Scotland if it continues to be a Unionist party.

    In an exclusive interview with the Sunday National in the wake of leader Richard Leonard’s resignation, Les Huckfield said that unless the party changed its stance on independence it was “never going to get anywhere”.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017357.no-future-scottish-labour-remains-unionist-former-minister-says/

    That former junior 1970s minister left Labour over the Iraq War and is an SNP member.

    Labour is not going to win back Nat voters from the SNP, its best hope is to remain a Unionist Party and win Tory and LD tactical votes to beat the SNP
    I believe there are many voters who vote SNP for Holyrood who can be persuaded to support Labour for Westminster. The 2017 GE provided evidence of that.
    What could change things quite radically is if in 2024 Starmer does well enough outside of Scotland to be invited to form a minority UK government and then puts forward a social-democratic programme that non-Tory voters in Scotland would generally have sympathy with, only for the SNP to bring down that government in the cause of secession. A second 2024 GE conducted in those circumstances would be interesting.

    SNP supporters here, for all their bravado, prefer to gloss over what happened in a similar scenario in 1979.
    I think that 1979 was rather a long time ago!

    The other point here is somethijng that people seem to keep forgetting. The SNP won't be voting on "English" matters under EVEL even were they to go against their own doctrine. So if SKS needs the SNP vote for a HoC majortity, things will get very difficult very quickly anyway with Mr Gove or whoever a de facto English Prime Minister at the same time as SKS is PM of the UK.
    Hi Carnyx

    Leaving aside the fact the SNP take a very broad interpretation of ‘matters affecting Scotland,’ don’t you think they would vote to actively support a Labour government in that scenario because (a) it would otherwise see the return of a Tory government which they would not regard as being in Scotland’s interests and (b) there would be no better way of pissing off the one remaining major unionist party, thereby making independence more likely?
    A true "Unionist" (as opposed to an English Nationalist) would not object if England's wishes were occasionally over-ruled by votes including the other nations of the UK. Scottish "Unionists" don't mind when it is the other way around.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,697

    eek said:

    What about the unknown knowns? I'd like to know about those.

    They are the black swan surprises that come from left field - Covid is a great example.

    I'd say Covid is an unknown unknown, since nobody knew about it and nobody realised it would shake governments. Perhaps climate change is an unknown known; it is a known but many politicians act as though it does not affect government decisions. The unknown part would be that they were unaware it would blow them off course. Many still are.
    Yep, it was definitely a "thing we don't know we don't know". Which is the most populous of Rumsfeld's categories if you think about it. It's infinite. Next comes "things we know we know". This is bigger than the "things we know we don't know" (which are relatively few). Much bigger in fact. It's a huge bucket. It contains everything we know apart from the things we know but do not know we know. Rumsfeld missed this last one out for some reason. Perhaps did not want to get too deep and risk losing his audience. A pity, since although his exposition remains powerful the omission detracts slightly from it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 11,954
    ydoethur said:
    I remember tormenting some Accenture contractors working for me, until they wrote a report in English. As opposed to made up business bullshitese.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 12,243
    Foss said:

    Full time WFH if possible. For the majory of the last 15 years it's been rare for my entire team to be in the same timezone, let alone the same office.

    I know of one company in my industry that has already let its expensive office space in the city go.

    It has hired smaller, cheaper premises for meetings

    My employer has dropped pretty strong hints to its workforce that things will never go back to the way they were.

    This is change that myself and my team willingly embrace but London and other towns with substantial office presence are going to take a hit even after this is over.

  • TimTTimT Posts: 2,631
    Alastair - I agree. At the time, I had no clue why he was mocked for that statement. It was clear. My only criticism is that it is incomplete. There are two additional categories - things we know that are in fact wrong, and the unknowable.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 12,243
    DougSeal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting article ...............
    HMS Britain is Sinking –Launch Scottish Independence Lifeboat Urgently
    https://sputniknews.com/columnists/202101151081771607-hms-britain-is-sinking--launch-scottish-independence-lifeboat-urgently/

    Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting article ...............
    HMS Britain is Sinking – Launch Scottish Independence Lifeboat Urgently
    https://sputniknews.com/columnists/202101151081771607-hms-britain-is-sinking--launch-scottish-independence-lifeboat-urgently/

    Sputnik? oh dear......
    Johns Hopkins University statistics are to be questioned but a Russian State Propaganda unit think piece is “interesting”. I sometimes wonder if Malc is actually in an office block somewhere in St Petersburg.
    Or it tells him what he so desperately wants to believe.
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