"Boris Johnson blames Chinese for coronavirus pandemic telling world leaders it was triggered by 'demented' people who 'grind up the scales of a pangolin' in bid to become more 'potent'"
If Trump isn't on the ballot, I strongly suspect 2024 will see a large decline in turnout on BOTH sides. That isn't necessarily a problem for the GOP candidate. The fact is they are unlikely to need anything like 81 million votes or even 74 million to win.
Turnout dropping on both sides is a bigger issue for the GOP than the Democrats now, Democrats have higher propensity voters I think.
He apparently *personally* owes DB $300 million in the next few years via PGs.
Having his golf courses and hotels closed because of the pandemic wasn't in the business plan.
Well at least he'll have his presidential pension to ensure he can maintain dignity.
He seems like someone constantly racing ahead of the next scandal or debt collector, hoping to die before thr debts are due. Trump Jr and Ivanka can deal with it.
He apparently *personally* owes DB $300 million in the next few years via PGs.
Having his golf courses and hotels closed because of the pandemic wasn't in the business plan.
He's never making that money now. If he had been grown up big boy after the election, I think despite being very divisive, he would have been looking at making big bucks.
I've dabbled in altfi a bit and can tell you Personal Guarantees aren't worth shit. Particularly when you're dealing with the likes of Trump. That Deutsche haven't realised this is astonishing. First charges over stuff like his golf course is what you need.
These ones are apparently. Was the only way he could get the credit line, apparently the whole family would be on the hook, and are secured against personal properties and other assets, as well as the mortgaged properties.
One way or another DB will get most of their money back.
It is the rumour why Trump hasn't spent much money himself recently, he needs to have a certain about of liquid and illiquid assets.
Trump is going to declare bankruptcy in the next year or two. Nobody is going to do business with him.
The thing is, even given his behaviour before the election, if he had acted maturely upon losing, I think he would have been looking making big bucks...big tv show, loads of products flogged to the faithful, etc.
The 7% who will never vote Republican ever again are not going to make it easy for whoever they pick as their candidate.
They'll have to do some kind of New Labour rebranding and purge everyone associated with Trump.
Isn't a problem with the US system that they don't really get a new "leader" until the next presidential primaries, which are years away? Makes it very difficult for the party to put its house in order and rebrand meantime, even if they wanted to.
The Republicans have the same sort of problem that Labour had with Corbyn - cult of peronality followers.
"Boris Johnson blames Chinese for coronavirus pandemic telling world leaders it was triggered by 'demented' people who 'grind up the scales of a pangolin' in bid to become more 'potent'"
I think they picked the wrong day to send her out. She is going to get questions on Boris biking, the terrorist asylum seeker who got released and immediately killed the guys in the park, and the food boxes....
Do you mean questions about Boris bikin' and the stabbin' in Readin'?
Something that Priti Patel, Sadiq Khan and Beth Rigby have in common.
Good. The more people who talk like normal people in public life the better. Maybe one day people will realise how odd it is that so many of those in public life come from the same narrow segment of society and all sound the same, when our country has such a wide breadth of talent and so much diversity in how we speak.
No-one talks like that in the Midlands where I live. In fact a feature of the local accent here is to pronounce the "g" at the end of "ing" words in a particularly emphatic way.
How many sound like Johnson, Cameron or Osborne in your part of the world? Why no comment on their accent, which in statistical terms is a much more unusual way to speak. It would be much less notable if the Cabinet had Brummie, Estuary, Geordie, Scouse accents in it, it seems odd to focus on the Cabinet member who at least sounds like a regular person from some part of the country. It's not like she has made herself unintelligible.
Very Lib Dem Bar Charts. "Winning the vaccination race here ..."
You don't normally use red and green, unless green means a fully compliant end state has been reached. Normally you would use a graduated scale of one colour to represent different states of completion. As the data is sourced from ourworldindata.org, we could even use the map the same organisation helpfully provides, that presents the data perfectly well:
Why would you have an exponential rather than linear colour scale?
Does everyone vaccinated then go on to vaccinate someone else?
"Boris Johnson blames Chinese for coronavirus pandemic telling world leaders it was triggered by 'demented' people who 'grind up the scales of a pangolin' in bid to become more 'potent'"
I think they picked the wrong day to send her out. She is going to get questions on Boris biking, the terrorist asylum seeker who got released and immediately killed the guys in the park, and the food boxes....
Do you mean questions about Boris bikin' and the stabbin' in Readin'?
Something that Priti Patel, Sadiq Khan and Beth Rigby have in common.
Good. The more people who talk like normal people in public life the better. Maybe one day people will realise how odd it is that so many of those in public life come from the same narrow segment of society and all sound the same, when our country has such a wide breadth of talent and so much diversity in how we speak.
No-one talks like that in the Midlands where I live. In fact a feature of the local accent here is to pronounce the "g" at the end of "ing" words in a particularly emphatic way.
It's a linguistic throwback to the Danelaw, with the Vikings occupying the Midlands (or so I was told, as I pronounce it with that obvious emphasis).
He apparently *personally* owes DB $300 million in the next few years via PGs.
Having his golf courses and hotels closed because of the pandemic wasn't in the business plan.
I wonder what he will get for his memoirs. In fairness, they will be an entertaining read, assuming they are not gutted by nervous defence counsel worrying about forthcoming trials.
There's laws in America that prevent criminals from profiting/selling their stories. It can in some circumstances be applied retroactively.
Trump is going to declare bankruptcy in the next year or two. Nobody is going to do business with him.
The thing is, even given his behaviour before the election, if he had acted maturely upon losing, I think he would have been looking making big bucks...big tv show, loads of products flogged to the faithful, etc.
The 7% who will never vote Republican ever again are not going to make it easy for whoever they pick as their candidate.
I suspect that (ignoring youngsters who'd never been able to vote before) Trump's support includes more than 7% who'd never voted prior to 2016/2020. If Trump has run his last race, it may well be that they never vote again.
But, equally, a lot of people specifically voted to beat Trump, and wouldn't to beat Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley.
If Trump isn't on the ballot, I strongly suspect 2024 will see a large decline in turnout on BOTH sides. That isn't necessarily a problem for the GOP candidate. The fact is they are unlikely to need anything like 81 million votes or even 74 million to win.
That's the thing isn't it.
The Democratic vote increased Bigly everywhere. In Texas, the number of people voting for Biden increased from 3.9 million to 5.3m. Across large parts of America, the Democratic vote (in absolute terms) was up 30% or more.
And that vote wasn't because Biden was an inspiring candidate, it was an anti-Trump vote.
If 2024 is a non-crazy Republican and a dull and uninspiring Democrat, then I think turnout will be down sharply.
He apparently *personally* owes DB $300 million in the next few years via PGs.
Having his golf courses and hotels closed because of the pandemic wasn't in the business plan.
Well at least he'll have his presidential pension to ensure he can maintain dignity.
He seems like someone constantly racing ahead of the next scandal or debt collector, hoping to die before thr debts are due. Trump Jr and Ivanka can deal with it.
For anyone who’s worried about forgetting passwords - meet the guy who’s used up 8 of his 10 guesses at an encrypted memory stick password - containing 7,000 Bitcoin.
He apparently *personally* owes DB $300 million in the next few years via PGs.
Having his golf courses and hotels closed because of the pandemic wasn't in the business plan.
Well at least he'll have his presidential pension to ensure he can maintain dignity.
He seems like someone constantly racing ahead of the next scandal or debt collector, hoping to die before thr debts are due. Trump Jr and Ivanka can deal with it.
Not if he is removed by impeachment
He loses pension if convicted by the senate? Amusing.
He apparently *personally* owes DB $300 million in the next few years via PGs.
Having his golf courses and hotels closed because of the pandemic wasn't in the business plan.
Well at least he'll have his presidential pension to ensure he can maintain dignity.
He seems like someone constantly racing ahead of the next scandal or debt collector, hoping to die before thr debts are due. Trump Jr and Ivanka can deal with it.
Not if he is removed by impeachment
He loses pension if convicted by the senate? Amusing.
He'll be formally removed AFTER he's gone I think.
England up to 2,474,205 jabs, +140000 from yesterday.
That seems rather low given doing 200k the other day and the big centres opened yesterday.
I think it may actually be Sunday data being backfilled. I highly doubt that the actual Sunday data was ready for Monday's release very much like testing and case data I expect vaccine data to have a 2-3 day reporting lag.
England up to 2,474,205 jabs, +140000 from yesterday.
That seems rather low given doing 200k the other day and the big centres opened yesterday.
I think it may actually be Sunday data being backfilled. I highly doubt that the actual Sunday data was ready for Monday's release very much like testing and case data I expect vaccine data to have a 2-3 day reporting lag.
Back to media confusion over day of jab vs day of announcement of jab...
He apparently *personally* owes DB $300 million in the next few years via PGs.
Having his golf courses and hotels closed because of the pandemic wasn't in the business plan.
I wonder what he will get for his memoirs. In fairness, they will be an entertaining read, assuming they are not gutted by nervous defence counsel worrying about forthcoming trials.
There's laws in America that prevent criminals from profiting/selling their stories. It can in some circumstances be applied retroactively.
How about Melania's memoirs?
That's another huge payment Trump's going to have to make of money he doesn't have.
He apparently *personally* owes DB $300 million in the next few years via PGs.
Having his golf courses and hotels closed because of the pandemic wasn't in the business plan.
I wonder what he will get for his memoirs. In fairness, they will be an entertaining read, assuming they are not gutted by nervous defence counsel worrying about forthcoming trials.
There's laws in America that prevent criminals from profiting/selling their stories. It can in some circumstances be applied retroactively.
How about Melania's memoirs?
Depends if she's an indicted or unindicted co-conspirator.
Apparently one of the reasons why Trump is in the financial doo-doo is that he used to use the Trump charity as his own money, ever since the SDNY started investigating him that's not an option for him.
His wife and kids are all at risk from the SDNY investigation as they were/are trustees.
England up to 2,474,205 jabs, +140000 from yesterday.
That seems rather low given doing 200k the other day and the big centres opened yesterday.
I think it may actually be Sunday data being backfilled. I highly doubt that the actual Sunday data was ready for Monday's release very much like testing and case data I expect vaccine data to have a 2-3 day reporting lag.
Very, very patchy round here. Priti's constituency, too!
He apparently *personally* owes DB $300 million in the next few years via PGs.
Having his golf courses and hotels closed because of the pandemic wasn't in the business plan.
I wonder what he will get for his memoirs. In fairness, they will be an entertaining read, assuming they are not gutted by nervous defence counsel worrying about forthcoming trials.
There's laws in America that prevent criminals from profiting/selling their stories. It can in some circumstances be applied retroactively.
How about Melania's memoirs?
That's another huge payment Trump's going to have to make of money he doesn't have.
If Trump isn't on the ballot, I strongly suspect 2024 will see a large decline in turnout on BOTH sides. That isn't necessarily a problem for the GOP candidate. The fact is they are unlikely to need anything like 81 million votes or even 74 million to win.
Turnout dropping on both sides is a bigger issue for the GOP than the Democrats now, Democrats have higher propensity voters I think.
Do they? My assumption is that Dems are a little less likely to vote, in line with the fact urban turnout is lower than rural. Happy to be proved wrong on that.
I guess one thing you could say is that Dems did very well in the 2018 elections when Trump wasn't on the ballot. But, equally, they did poorly in 2014 when he wasn't either. Overall, historically, low turnout elections seem quite good for Republicans.
If Trump isn't on the ballot, I strongly suspect 2024 will see a large decline in turnout on BOTH sides. That isn't necessarily a problem for the GOP candidate. The fact is they are unlikely to need anything like 81 million votes or even 74 million to win.
Turnout dropping on both sides is a bigger issue for the GOP than the Democrats now, Democrats have higher propensity voters I think.
Do they? My assumption is that Dems are a little less likely to vote, in line with the fact urban turnout is lower than rural. Happy to be proved wrong on that.
I guess one thing you could say is that Dems did very well in the 2018 elections when Trump wasn't on the ballot. But, equally, they did poorly in 2014 when he wasn't either. Overall, historically, low turnout elections seem quite good for Republicans.
Historically aren't low turnout elections good for the party challenging for the Oval Office? 2014 that was Republicans, 2018 it was the Democrats. 2022 it will be the Republicans again.
Trump is going to declare bankruptcy in the next year or two. Nobody is going to do business with him.
The thing is, even given his behaviour before the election, if he had acted maturely upon losing, I think he would have been looking making big bucks...big tv show, loads of products flogged to the faithful, etc.
The 7% who will never vote Republican ever again are not going to make it easy for whoever they pick as their candidate.
I suspect that (ignoring youngsters who'd never been able to vote before) Trump's support includes more than 7% who'd never voted prior to 2016/2020. If Trump has run his last race, it may well be that they never vote again.
But, equally, a lot of people specifically voted to beat Trump, and wouldn't to beat Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley.
If Trump isn't on the ballot, I strongly suspect 2024 will see a large decline in turnout on BOTH sides. That isn't necessarily a problem for the GOP candidate. The fact is they are unlikely to need anything like 81 million votes or even 74 million to win.
That's the thing isn't it.
The Democratic vote increased Bigly everywhere. In Texas, the number of people voting for Biden increased from 3.9 million to 5.3m. Across large parts of America, the Democratic vote (in absolute terms) was up 30% or more.
And that vote wasn't because Biden was an inspiring candidate, it was an anti-Trump vote.
If 2024 is a non-crazy Republican and a dull and uninspiring Democrat, then I think turnout will be down sharply.
That is a well known phenomenon called regression to the mean.
Incidentally, but important: is there going to be a thread on next Saturday's CDU meeting, which will choose Angela Merkel's replacement? There's been very little coverage in the UK media about it.
The reason why I think it's actually Sunday data is because there isn't a realtime recording system in place for this. AIUI it's being done by pen and paper with each centre manually auditing then entering the figures into into a webform rather than capturing appointment data or counting the increment in main patient database.
If Trump isn't on the ballot, I strongly suspect 2024 will see a large decline in turnout on BOTH sides. That isn't necessarily a problem for the GOP candidate. The fact is they are unlikely to need anything like 81 million votes or even 74 million to win.
Turnout dropping on both sides is a bigger issue for the GOP than the Democrats now, Democrats have higher propensity voters I think.
Do they? My assumption is that Dems are a little less likely to vote, in line with the fact urban turnout is lower than rural. Happy to be proved wrong on that.
I guess one thing you could say is that Dems did very well in the 2018 elections when Trump wasn't on the ballot. But, equally, they did poorly in 2014 when he wasn't either. Overall, historically, low turnout elections seem quite good for Republicans.
Low turnout was good for the GOP previously but they've switched suburban voters for massive rural dominance (Even more so than before) & a bit more urban vote which is fine for a presidential election, less good for midterms and so forth. I think suburban voters are the highest propensity of all.
For anyone who’s worried about forgetting passwords - meet the guy who’s used up 8 of his 10 guesses at an encrypted memory stick password - containing 7,000 Bitcoin.
Not my area of expertise, but surely there's computer forensics kit that can image the encrypted data and so make as many copies as you need to try passwords against?
Incidentally, but important: is there going to be a thread on next Saturday's CDU meeting, which will choose Angela Merkel's replacement? There's been very little coverage in the UK media about it.
The reason why I think it's actually Sunday data is because there isn't a realtime recording system in place for this. AIUI it's being done by pen and paper with each centre manually auditing then entering the figures into into a webform rather than capturing appointment data or counting the increment in main patient database.
Also the 7 big centres opened yesterday. Hard to believe they didn't do lots, even with possible first day teething issues.
Very Lib Dem Bar Charts. "Winning the vaccination race here ..."
You don't normally use red and green, unless green means a fully compliant end state has been reached. Normally you would use a graduated scale of one colour to represent different states of completion. As the data is sourced from ourworldindata.org, we could even use the map the same organisation helpfully provides, that presents the data perfectly well:
Why would you have an exponential rather than linear colour scale?
Does everyone vaccinated then go on to vaccinate someone else?
Now that is an idea. A vaccine which is itself infectious.
In a High Court hearing where the judge has just asked the DWP's QC if he's competing with someone using the Netflix downstairs. Not sure I can quite get used to the new normal..
Update: The QC is now setting off someone's Siri/Bixby etc, which is saying: "I didn't catch that. Try again?" Brief points of humour in a very, very tragic case...
My father (94) finally got his vaccination today. Very efficiently done apparently. Surprised it was the Pfizer one.
On another note, particularly if @Foxy is here, I would be interested in any feedback on something else. I became very hoarse just before Christmas, without any other symptoms. My wife (a Doctor, but a pathologist and now working in drug safety so not her expertise) suggested leaving for a couple of weeks to see if it cleared up. It didn't. I saw the GP Friday evening who arranged a hospital appointment. On Monday I got a telephone appointment for today which was pretty impressive. I spoke to an ENT surgeon an hour ago who is going to organise an urgent hospital visit for me. His first reaction from my description and my voice was vocal cord paralysis. Not something my wife thought of. Don't like what I read about it, although he seemed pretty chipper about it. Obviously I am worried.
England up to 2,474,205 jabs, +140000 from yesterday.
That seems rather low given doing 200k the other day and the big centres opened yesterday.
I think it may actually be Sunday data being backfilled. I highly doubt that the actual Sunday data was ready for Monday's release very much like testing and case data I expect vaccine data to have a 2-3 day reporting lag.
Very, very patchy round here. Priti's constituency, too!
In Southern Hampshire the vaccinations are going very well with a number of centres doing 1000+ per day
Very Lib Dem Bar Charts. "Winning the vaccination race here ..."
You don't normally use red and green, unless green means a fully compliant end state has been reached. Normally you would use a graduated scale of one colour to represent different states of completion. As the data is sourced from ourworldindata.org, we could even use the map the same organisation helpfully provides, that presents the data perfectly well:
Why would you have an exponential rather than linear colour scale?
Does everyone vaccinated then go on to vaccinate someone else?
Now that is an idea. A vaccine which is itself infectious.
Isn't that called Covid? The problem is that it has a few side effects and didn't pass the safety criteria.
Perhaps if it could be genetially modified to become less lethal...
My father (94) finally got his vaccination today. Very efficiently done apparently. Surprised it was the Pfizer one.
On another note, particularly if @Foxy is here, I would be interested in any feedback on something else. I became very hoarse just before Christmas, without any other symptoms. My wife (a Doctor, but a pathologist and now working in drug safety so not her expertise) suggested leaving for a couple of weeks to see if it cleared up. It didn't. I saw the GP Friday evening who arranged a hospital appointment. On Monday I got a telephone appointment for today which was pretty impressive. I spoke to an ENT surgeon an hour ago who is going to organise an urgent hospital visit for me. His first reaction from my description and my voice was vocal cord paralysis. Not something my wife thought of. Don't like what I read about it, although he seemed pretty chipper about it. Obviously I am worried.
You are in good hands - the best comfort you can take. Good luck and hope it turns out to be a straightforward treatment.
If Trump isn't on the ballot, I strongly suspect 2024 will see a large decline in turnout on BOTH sides. That isn't necessarily a problem for the GOP candidate. The fact is they are unlikely to need anything like 81 million votes or even 74 million to win.
Turnout dropping on both sides is a bigger issue for the GOP than the Democrats now, Democrats have higher propensity voters I think.
Do they? My assumption is that Dems are a little less likely to vote, in line with the fact urban turnout is lower than rural. Happy to be proved wrong on that.
I guess one thing you could say is that Dems did very well in the 2018 elections when Trump wasn't on the ballot. But, equally, they did poorly in 2014 when he wasn't either. Overall, historically, low turnout elections seem quite good for Republicans.
Historically aren't low turnout elections good for the party challenging for the Oval Office? 2014 that was Republicans, 2018 it was the Democrats. 2022 it will be the Republicans again.
I suppose for midterms. I think 2002 were the most recent mid-terms to buck that trend, and partly because Bush was polling reasonably well at that point (well off his post-9/11 high but still around 60%).
For run-off elections, where these happen, the balance seems to be that run-offs are lower turnout and better for the GOP. I know there are two very recent data points which go the other way, but more broadly that seems to be an effect.
Incidentally, but important: is there going to be a thread on next Saturday's CDU meeting, which will choose Angela Merkel's replacement? There's been very little coverage in the UK media about it.
It will be interesting, the German Federal election in September is by far the most important international election this year and if Merz is elected as Chancellor Candidate that would see a significant shift to the right in the CDU as he is more conservative than Merkel is
The negative regression slope depends entirely on the first and last datapoints.
Yes, exactly. Might be a bit more meaningful in a few days' time, but even then you wouldn't expect a straight-line fit. I'd expect there to be a plateau initially (which we is perhaps what the first few points show), and then the ratio beginning to curve downwards in response to the gradual ramp-up of jabs for the over-80s, time-lagged for the intervals between receiving the vaccination and achieving good immunity + typical time lag from infection to death. I'd then expect it to flatten off and eventually start rising again as most of the over 80s will have been protected and more of the younger cohort follow them..
I think that the number of those who will have the vaccine will rise in the coming days and weeks. As everyone is having it, even those who are against it will know friends, relatives, acquaintances, etc who has had it and who will reassure them that all is ok (inasmuch as such reassurance is possible).
Hence I suspect many of the waverers will fall into line.
Yes, an entire thread derailed by an extended argument about colour codes on a map is not quite, but nor far off, Peak PB.
True, but I think we can do better:
Guys [I expect it is..], you've missed the main point. The problem isn't so much the colour scheme, it's the use of a map. The map adds absolutely nothing, it's much clearer just to use a bar chart.
OK, off you go...
Richard, if only you'd said pie chart, I could agree with you.
Don't use a pie chart. If you really must use a pie chart, then it absoulutely must not be a 3-d pie chart. They distort the proportions.
The reason why I think it's actually Sunday data is because there isn't a realtime recording system in place for this. AIUI it's being done by pen and paper with each centre manually auditing then entering the figures into into a webform rather than capturing appointment data or counting the increment in main patient database.
Also the 7 big centres opened yesterday. Hard to believe they didn't do lots, even with possible first day teething issues.
Yes, though it was concerning that the Birmingham one is only looking to do 2600 per day when it is fully operational. It should be at least 10x that number. Don't see the point of them if they're only going to do 18-20k each, better to have many smaller centres.
My father (94) finally got his vaccination today. Very efficiently done apparently. Surprised it was the Pfizer one.
On another note, particularly if @Foxy is here, I would be interested in any feedback on something else. I became very hoarse just before Christmas, without any other symptoms. My wife (a Doctor, but a pathologist and now working in drug safety so not her expertise) suggested leaving for a couple of weeks to see if it cleared up. It didn't. I saw the GP Friday evening who arranged a hospital appointment. On Monday I got a telephone appointment for today which was pretty impressive. I spoke to an ENT surgeon an hour ago who is going to organise an urgent hospital visit for me. His first reaction from my description and my voice was vocal cord paralysis. Not something my wife thought of. Don't like what I read about it, although he seemed pretty chipper about it. Obviously I am worried.
Sorry to hear that. Are you still at work and holding meetings? I have had a sore throat on and off for the past few months and realised that it is because I am sitting here shouting at zoom/teams meetings all day.
England up to 2,474,205 jabs, +140000 from yesterday.
That seems rather low given doing 200k the other day and the big centres opened yesterday.
I think it may actually be Sunday data being backfilled. I highly doubt that the actual Sunday data was ready for Monday's release very much like testing and case data I expect vaccine data to have a 2-3 day reporting lag.
Back to media confusion over day of jab vs day of announcement of jab...
From the file for 12th (today)
"Only records with a vaccination date between the 8th December 2020 and the 11th January 2021 have been included."
Learning the reporting lag in this will be interesting.
Trump is going to declare bankruptcy in the next year or two. Nobody is going to do business with him.
The thing is, even given his behaviour before the election, if he had acted maturely upon losing, I think he would have been looking making big bucks...big tv show, loads of products flogged to the faithful, etc.
The 7% who will never vote Republican ever again are not going to make it easy for whoever they pick as their candidate.
They'll have to do some kind of New Labour rebranding and purge everyone associated with Trump.
Isn't a problem with the US system that they don't really get a new "leader" until the next presidential primaries, which are years away? Makes it very difficult for the party to put its house in order and rebrand meantime, even if they wanted to.
They have leaders in the House and Senate, often as Speaker of the former and Majority of the latter, even if out of power in the White House
On vaccine rollouts here in the US, my wife now qualifies for vaccination under New York State's latest priority criteria (she's a teacher at a language school) and has an appointment for her first shot in March. Her workplace is trying to get an on-site vaccination session set up sooner if they can.
Wife's sister's husband (brother-in-law-in-law?) who is an ER doc in Las Vegas has now had both rounds. He reported feeling pretty lousy for the twenty-four hours after the second jab (chills and lethargy) but is now fine. The COVID situation in Vegas appears to have stabilized a little: case numbers are still sky high and the ICU at his hospital is at capacity with them frequently having to overflow new ICU patients to the Emergency Room. It's not getting any better, but for now it doesn't appear to be getting noticeably worse.
My father (94) finally got his vaccination today. Very efficiently done apparently. Surprised it was the Pfizer one.
On another note, particularly if @Foxy is here, I would be interested in any feedback on something else. I became very hoarse just before Christmas, without any other symptoms. My wife (a Doctor, but a pathologist and now working in drug safety so not her expertise) suggested leaving for a couple of weeks to see if it cleared up. It didn't. I saw the GP Friday evening who arranged a hospital appointment. On Monday I got a telephone appointment for today which was pretty impressive. I spoke to an ENT surgeon an hour ago who is going to organise an urgent hospital visit for me. His first reaction from my description and my voice was vocal cord paralysis. Not something my wife thought of. Don't like what I read about it, although he seemed pretty chipper about it. Obviously I am worried.
And good to hear about your father.
I called up her local hospital to organise my mother's second jab and was given an appointment nine weeks after her first.
The hospital rang me up again today to organise her second jab and was surprised to hear that it was already scheduled.
Good old NHS! Still, better twice than not at all.
In Spain - only registered nurses are allowed to give the jabs and thet are holding doses back to give the 2 injections. Meanwhile the figures are rising relentlessly and it is unlikely that anyone under 65 will receive anything possibly before the summer. I have to say the EU has not covered itself in glory on this one - and there seems no real sense of urgency. Quite bizarre.
But the EU as a whole overtook the UK yesterday in total number of jabs given, so that's something ...
Some Brexiteers were happy to compare EU-27 exports to UK against UK exports to EU-27 to argue that the EU had more to lose from no deal than the UK, so I'm sure they'd also admit that the EU is better than us on vaccinations
I am absolutely delighted if they are doing more jabs than us. As long as we are all doing as many as we can it just means fewer people will die. I think comparisons are useful for highlighting where countries are seriously falling down and trying to analyse why - as with the high death rates in Italy, Spain and the UK earlier last year. I have lots of friends in France and worry hugely about them with the poor way the French rollout is being handled.
More acutely I have lots of friends in the US and am seeing weekly comments about friends and family of them who have died. One lady I have known for 40 years or more lost both her parents and her in laws in the last month to covid. No one wins if people die unecessarilly when there is a vaccine available. No matter what country they are from.
Well, that makes me look a bit of a tit...
I agree, of course, with everything you say. If we hit our targets for roll out and are jabbing arms as fast as vaccine supplies are coming in and still get overtaken by others then that's great. A big task for the rich parts of the world when we've sorted out our own vaccination programmes will be ensuring that everyone else gets access too, no only because it's the right thing to do, but because we need to kill this thing off, not let it fester on in other countries and have the chance to adapt and come again.
I've just been out for a local walk and was staggered by the number of white vans around and maskless workmen going in and out of houses. Chris Whitty was asked about tradesmen being allowed to enter houses on BBC Breakfast this week and he said that it was important to keep the economy going. But given the hospitality industry has been ravaged and there has been suggestions in the press that support bubbles might be axed, should tradesmen be allowed in for non-emergency work?
Trump is going to declare bankruptcy in the next year or two. Nobody is going to do business with him.
The thing is, even given his behaviour before the election, if he had acted maturely upon losing, I think he would have been looking making big bucks...big tv show, loads of products flogged to the faithful, etc.
The 7% who will never vote Republican ever again are not going to make it easy for whoever they pick as their candidate.
They'll have to do some kind of New Labour rebranding and purge everyone associated with Trump.
Isn't a problem with the US system that they don't really get a new "leader" until the next presidential primaries, which are years away? Makes it very difficult for the party to put its house in order and rebrand meantime, even if they wanted to.
They have leaders in the House and Senate, often as Speaker of the former and Majority of the latter, even if out of power in the White House
Yes, but there is no real leader of the party in the British sense. Outside of holding the presidency or having a selected presidential candidate, the two party National Committee chairs are the people that the press would go to when they want an official comment from the party, but no-one would consider them to be the party "leader".
The negative regression slope depends entirely on the first and last datapoints.
Yes, exactly. Might be a bit more meaningful in a few days' time, but even then you wouldn't expect a straight-line fit. I'd expect there to be a plateau initially (which we is perhaps what the first few points show), and then the ratio beginning to curve downwards in response to the gradual ramp-up of jabs for the over-80s, time-lagged for the intervals between receiving the vaccination and achieving good immunity + typical time lag from infection to death. I'd then expect it to flatten off and eventually start rising again as most of the over 80s will have been protected and more of the younger cohort follow them..
An isotonic regression would be in order. That is, a regression subject only to a monotonicity constraint.
Very Lib Dem Bar Charts. "Winning the vaccination race here ..."
You don't normally use red and green, unless green means a fully compliant end state has been reached. Normally you would use a graduated scale of one colour to represent different states of completion. As the data is sourced from ourworldindata.org, we could even use the map the same organisation helpfully provides, that presents the data perfectly well:
Why would you have an exponential rather than linear colour scale?
Does everyone vaccinated then go on to vaccinate someone else?
Depends on what you want to show. If you want to show differences in the categories with smaller numbers, an exponential graph is useful. If you want to show the differences between the categories with the higher numbers, go linear. Importantly, humans aren't that great at mapping colour to number, so a choropleth map is probably more useful in trying to show shapes in regional distribution rather than comparisons. This is a bad vis whether linear or exponential.
A better use of choropleths would be the one someone posted of the UK showing the infection numbers spreading up from Kent, which tells a better story than a bar chart of local authorities does. The virus spreads "geographically", the vaccine doesn't really.
"Last Wednesday could easily have had a different outcome"
Not so sure. Of course it could have had an immediate terrible outcome with lots of deaths including big time political assassinations. But only if the armed forces had turned against the constitution could there have been a seriously different outcome. The mismatch of fire power is too great.
If in the next weeks there is a massive outbreak of local insurrections all over the USA and clear evidence that the constitutional process is being demolished by people and officials a rethink may be needed.
Lots of people have a huge investment in civil order. Replacing it with another one is not easy in a developed society. Ask anyone trying to fix a minor matter (compared with this) like Brexit.
I think in the long run, it's this that will prove to be the worst news for Trumpism and the Republican party this week.
Rich old men die all the time and new ones keep popping up to replace them. I don't suppose anyone was really predicting an 87 year old was going to be around for that long - in US politics there just seems to be a conveyor belt of elderly tycoons with more money than they can spend wishing to engage in philanthropy and buying the favour of senior politicians.
Personally, I'd get myself a 25 year old bride and some blue pills instead. But each to his own.
My father (94) finally got his vaccination today. Very efficiently done apparently. Surprised it was the Pfizer one.
On another note, particularly if @Foxy is here, I would be interested in any feedback on something else. I became very hoarse just before Christmas, without any other symptoms. My wife (a Doctor, but a pathologist and now working in drug safety so not her expertise) suggested leaving for a couple of weeks to see if it cleared up. It didn't. I saw the GP Friday evening who arranged a hospital appointment. On Monday I got a telephone appointment for today which was pretty impressive. I spoke to an ENT surgeon an hour ago who is going to organise an urgent hospital visit for me. His first reaction from my description and my voice was vocal cord paralysis. Not something my wife thought of. Don't like what I read about it, although he seemed pretty chipper about it. Obviously I am worried.
I don't think it's a particularly rare condition. It's easy to diagnose with a camera.
Someone in my choir had it. It was temporary and they were able to resume singing. I'm not sure if that was because of treatment or because it resolved spontaneously. I hope that's at least one positive data point for you!
My father (94) finally got his vaccination today. Very efficiently done apparently. Surprised it was the Pfizer one.
On another note, particularly if @Foxy is here, I would be interested in any feedback on something else. I became very hoarse just before Christmas, without any other symptoms. My wife (a Doctor, but a pathologist and now working in drug safety so not her expertise) suggested leaving for a couple of weeks to see if it cleared up. It didn't. I saw the GP Friday evening who arranged a hospital appointment. On Monday I got a telephone appointment for today which was pretty impressive. I spoke to an ENT surgeon an hour ago who is going to organise an urgent hospital visit for me. His first reaction from my description and my voice was vocal cord paralysis. Not something my wife thought of. Don't like what I read about it, although he seemed pretty chipper about it. Obviously I am worried.
Sorry to hear that. Are you still at work and holding meetings? I have had a sore throat on and off for the past few months and realised that it is because I am sitting here shouting at zoom/teams meetings all day.
IANAD, obvs!
I'm retired. However I am (normally) very loud and talk a lot (I'm guessing that comes as no surprise). My first concern was cancer (as it appeared was my GPs concern), but it seems there are multitude of other equally horrible things it can be. I am of course ignoring the mild causes.
Not sure I am allowed to post this here. It is an article suggesting another country might learn from the way the UK has handled things (at least in relation to genomic sequencing)
My father (94) finally got his vaccination today. Very efficiently done apparently. Surprised it was the Pfizer one.
On another note, particularly if @Foxy is here, I would be interested in any feedback on something else. I became very hoarse just before Christmas, without any other symptoms. My wife (a Doctor, but a pathologist and now working in drug safety so not her expertise) suggested leaving for a couple of weeks to see if it cleared up. It didn't. I saw the GP Friday evening who arranged a hospital appointment. On Monday I got a telephone appointment for today which was pretty impressive. I spoke to an ENT surgeon an hour ago who is going to organise an urgent hospital visit for me. His first reaction from my description and my voice was vocal cord paralysis. Not something my wife thought of. Don't like what I read about it, although he seemed pretty chipper about it. Obviously I am worried.
I don't think it's a particularly rare condition. It's easy to diagnose with a camera.
Someone in my choir had it. It was temporary and they were able to resume singing. I'm not sure if that was because of treatment or because it resolved spontaneously. I hope that's at least one positive data point for you!
In Spain - only registered nurses are allowed to give the jabs and thet are holding doses back to give the 2 injections. Meanwhile the figures are rising relentlessly and it is unlikely that anyone under 65 will receive anything possibly before the summer. I have to say the EU has not covered itself in glory on this one - and there seems no real sense of urgency. Quite bizarre.
But the EU as a whole overtook the UK yesterday in total number of jabs given, so that's something ...
Some Brexiteers were happy to compare EU-27 exports to UK against UK exports to EU-27 to argue that the EU had more to lose from no deal than the UK, so I'm sure they'd also admit that the EU is better than us on vaccinations
I am absolutely delighted if they are doing more jabs than us. As long as we are all doing as many as we can it just means fewer people will die. I think comparisons are useful for highlighting where countries are seriously falling down and trying to analyse why - as with the high death rates in Italy, Spain and the UK earlier last year. I have lots of friends in France and worry hugely about them with the poor way the French rollout is being handled.
More acutely I have lots of friends in the US and am seeing weekly comments about friends and family of them who have died. One lady I have known for 40 years or more lost both her parents and her in laws in the last month to covid. No one wins if people die unecessarilly when there is a vaccine available. No matter what country they are from.
Well, that makes me look a bit of a tit...
I agree, of course, with everything you say. If we hit our targets for roll out and are jabbing arms as fast as vaccine supplies are coming in and still get overtaken by others then that's great. A big task for the rich parts of the world when we've sorted out our own vaccination programmes will be ensuring that everyone else gets access too, no only because it's the right thing to do, but because we need to kill this thing off, not let it fester on in other countries and have the chance to adapt and come again.
Not at all. We all make sweeping statements and assume things about other posters here. No one is immune to it and it is just part and parcel of the mix. It makes life fun )
Agree entirely about the Third World. That is why the Oxford vaccine is so important. We ned the ability to get vaccines to every part of the world as quickly as possible. That is why I am so pleased the Government realises this and has put nearly £800 million so far into the project to get 1 billion doses of vaccine to developing nations.
My father (94) finally got his vaccination today. Very efficiently done apparently. Surprised it was the Pfizer one.
On another note, particularly if @Foxy is here, I would be interested in any feedback on something else. I became very hoarse just before Christmas, without any other symptoms. My wife (a Doctor, but a pathologist and now working in drug safety so not her expertise) suggested leaving for a couple of weeks to see if it cleared up. It didn't. I saw the GP Friday evening who arranged a hospital appointment. On Monday I got a telephone appointment for today which was pretty impressive. I spoke to an ENT surgeon an hour ago who is going to organise an urgent hospital visit for me. His first reaction from my description and my voice was vocal cord paralysis. Not something my wife thought of. Don't like what I read about it, although he seemed pretty chipper about it. Obviously I am worried.
Sorry to hear that. Are you still at work and holding meetings? I have had a sore throat on and off for the past few months and realised that it is because I am sitting here shouting at zoom/teams meetings all day.
IANAD, obvs!
I'm retired. However I am (normally) very loud and talk a lot (I'm guessing that comes as no surprise). My first concern was cancer (as it appeared was my GPs concern), but it seems there are multitude of other equally horrible things it can be. I am of course ignoring the mild causes.
Who was it who said that whenever they get a symptom, or even read about something in the papers, they are absolutely certain that they have the serious, inoperable version of it.
Whereas the vast majority of conditions are, literally, nothing - nice post from @AlwaysSinging upthread which should be of some comfort.
I think in the long run, it's this that will prove to be the worst news for Trumpism and the Republican party this week.
Rich old men die all the time and new ones keep popping up to replace them. I don't suppose anyone was really predicting an 87 year old was going to be around for that long - in US politics there just seems to be a conveyor belt of elderly tycoons with more money than they can spend wishing to engage in philanthropy and buying the favour of senior politicians.
Personally, I'd get myself a 25 year old bride and some blue pills instead. But each to his own.
Up to a point, Lord Passmore. Adelson did stand out for the sheer scale of the donations he made, often into the hundred million at a time.
Comments
He seems like someone constantly racing ahead of the next scandal or debt collector, hoping to die before thr debts are due. Trump Jr and Ivanka can deal with it.
One way or another DB will get most of their money back.
It is the rumour why Trump hasn't spent much money himself recently, he needs to have a certain about of liquid and illiquid assets.
Does everyone vaccinated then go on to vaccinate someone else?
The Democratic vote increased Bigly everywhere. In Texas, the number of people voting for Biden increased from 3.9 million to 5.3m. Across large parts of America, the Democratic vote (in absolute terms) was up 30% or more.
And that vote wasn't because Biden was an inspiring candidate, it was an anti-Trump vote.
If 2024 is a non-crazy Republican and a dull and uninspiring Democrat, then I think turnout will be down sharply.
The logistics should become smoother over time.
Apparently one of the reasons why Trump is in the financial doo-doo is that he used to use the Trump charity as his own money, ever since the SDNY started investigating him that's not an option for him.
His wife and kids are all at risk from the SDNY investigation as they were/are trustees.
Lets see what tomorrow shows. I'd hope for at least a quarter of a million tomorrow.
I guess one thing you could say is that Dems did very well in the 2018 elections when Trump wasn't on the ballot. But, equally, they did poorly in 2014 when he wasn't either. Overall, historically, low turnout elections seem quite good for Republicans.
I think suburban voters are the highest propensity of all.
In a High Court hearing where the judge has just asked the DWP's QC if he's competing with someone using the Netflix downstairs. Not sure I can quite get used to the new normal..
Update: The QC is now setting off someone's Siri/Bixby etc, which is saying: "I didn't catch that. Try again?" Brief points of humour in a very, very tragic case...
On another note, particularly if @Foxy is here, I would be interested in any feedback on something else. I became very hoarse just before Christmas, without any other symptoms. My wife (a Doctor, but a pathologist and now working in drug safety so not her expertise) suggested leaving for a couple of weeks to see if it cleared up. It didn't. I saw the GP Friday evening who arranged a hospital appointment. On Monday I got a telephone appointment for today which was pretty impressive. I spoke to an ENT surgeon an hour ago who is going to organise an urgent hospital visit for me. His first reaction from my description and my voice was vocal cord paralysis. Not something my wife thought of. Don't like what I read about it, although he seemed pretty chipper about it. Obviously I am worried.
Perhaps if it could be genetially modified to become less lethal...
For run-off elections, where these happen, the balance seems to be that run-offs are lower turnout and better for the GOP. I know there are two very recent data points which go the other way, but more broadly that seems to be an effect.
Hence I suspect many of the waverers will fall into line.
IANAD, obvs!
Brentford games against Bristol City & Reading postponed because of Covid-19 - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/556309
Grimsby Town: League Two club fined after Covid-19 fixture postponements - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55605876
"Only records with a vaccination date between the 8th December 2020 and the 11th January 2021 have been included."
Learning the reporting lag in this will be interesting.
Wife's sister's husband (brother-in-law-in-law?) who is an ER doc in Las Vegas has now had both rounds. He reported feeling pretty lousy for the twenty-four hours after the second jab (chills and lethargy) but is now fine. The COVID situation in Vegas appears to have stabilized a little: case numbers are still sky high and the ICU at his hospital is at capacity with them frequently having to overflow new ICU patients to the Emergency Room. It's not getting any better, but for now it doesn't appear to be getting noticeably worse.
I called up her local hospital to organise my mother's second jab and was given an appointment nine weeks after her first.
The hospital rang me up again today to organise her second jab and was surprised to hear that it was already scheduled.
Good old NHS! Still, better twice than not at all.
Lets hope the pace picks up.
I agree, of course, with everything you say. If we hit our targets for roll out and are jabbing arms as fast as vaccine supplies are coming in and still get overtaken by others then that's great. A big task for the rich parts of the world when we've sorted out our own vaccination programmes will be ensuring that everyone else gets access too, no only because it's the right thing to do, but because we need to kill this thing off, not let it fester on in other countries and have the chance to adapt and come again.
It is just a dreadful example and must be hard to take for those who are hardly allowed out of their front door
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1349023951826145280
Importantly, humans aren't that great at mapping colour to number, so a choropleth map is probably more useful in trying to show shapes in regional distribution rather than comparisons. This is a bad vis whether linear or exponential.
A better use of choropleths would be the one someone posted of the UK showing the infection numbers spreading up from Kent, which tells a better story than a bar chart of local authorities does.
The virus spreads "geographically", the vaccine doesn't really.
Not so sure. Of course it could have had an immediate terrible outcome with lots of deaths including big time political assassinations. But only if the armed forces had turned against the constitution could there have been a seriously different outcome. The mismatch of fire power is too great.
If in the next weeks there is a massive outbreak of local insurrections all over the USA and clear evidence that the constitutional process is being demolished by people and officials a rethink may be needed.
Lots of people have a huge investment in civil order. Replacing it with another one is not easy in a developed society. Ask anyone trying to fix a minor matter (compared with this) like Brexit.
Which begs the question why does Trump owe so much money to the German railway?
Personally, I'd get myself a 25 year old bride and some blue pills instead. But each to his own.
Someone in my choir had it. It was temporary and they were able to resume singing. I'm not sure if that was because of treatment or because it resolved spontaneously. I hope that's at least one positive data point for you!
--AS
But if you want to turn everything off, Big G then I respect that view.
https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2020/12/30/new-sars-cov-2-strain-in-the-united-states/
Agree entirely about the Third World. That is why the Oxford vaccine is so important. We ned the ability to get vaccines to every part of the world as quickly as possible. That is why I am so pleased the Government realises this and has put nearly £800 million so far into the project to get 1 billion doses of vaccine to developing nations.
Whereas the vast majority of conditions are, literally, nothing - nice post from @AlwaysSinging upthread which should be of some comfort.