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Time to bet that Trump will take the controversial step of pardoning himself? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 11 in General
imageTime to bet that Trump will take the controversial step of pardoning himself? – politicalbetting.com

The above is the top of the entry on the US Department of Justice website of the dozens of people who have been pardoned by Trump during his presidency. No doubt this list will be added to in the days that remain before Biden is inaugurated on January 20th.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,478
    Trump is so damned unpredictable. 50/50 seems about right to me, but then psychologically apparently when you have no idea what's going to happen.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,248
    I think it's a "yes", why wouldn't he? He wouldn't see it as an admission of guilt, just a way to avoid a witch-hunt.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
    For that bet are you relying on the webmaster updating the website promptly?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,248
    RobD said:

    For that bet are you relying on the webmaster updating the website promptly?

    Yes, this is the problem with trying to make market terms very precise and unambiguous. You end up turning what should be a clear, obvious question into a question about some obscure technicality.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369
    I see no choice but to resign from this Death Star as it begins to explode

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/09/trump-cabinet-resignations-death-star/


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,793
    Sandpit said:

    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    That's not quite true: the French President has similar powers, and tends to use them.

    *However*, the French President very rarely pardons individuals. Instead you usually see "incoming President xxx grants clemency to all prisoners with fewer than three months remaining on sentences, who have already served at least six months". Or somesuch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,793
    Sandpit said:

    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich was unconscionable.

    The only controversial Obama pardon (technically clemency, as he/she did not get the conviction struck down) I can think of was Chelsea Manning, who was released after serving seven years of a 30 year sentence.

    That being said... I think, the fact that Trump is pardoning people who committed crimes *for* him, is unique. And not in a good way.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich was unconscionable.

    The only controversial Obama pardon (technically clemency, as he/she did not get the conviction struck down) I can think of was Chelsea Manning, who was released after serving seven years of a 30 year sentence.

    That being said... I think, the fact that Trump is pardoning people who committed crimes *for* him, is unique. And not in a good way.
    The one I’ve been expecting is Edward Snowden, wonder if that will happen in the morning of 20th?

    I also wonder if he might do something really silly on the way out, such as pardon anyone convicted of any crime other than homicide currently in federal prison.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    From previous thread - yes, everyone needs to start using Signal and stop using WhatsApp.

    These things rely heavily on network effects, so make the switch and tell everyone you know that you’re doing it.

    Change your WhatsApp intro message to something like “Not using this any more, use Signal because it’s not Facebook” then DELETE WA from your phone.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,726
    edited January 11
    I've got a feeling Trump may produce some sort of video where he describes a "leftwing attack on free speech". The only way to keep his supporters energised without treading into any other area that may speed up impeachment.
  • ajbajb Posts: 14
    Normally accepting a pardon implies guilt, but a pardon can apparently be worded to imply innocence; in which case it doesn't.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 346
    I think we should run a book on when OGH issues this thread with a pardon?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,683
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: there's an astoundingly unappealing special on Ladbrokes for Russell to win a first driver's title by the end of 2023. The price is 1.91.

    Much more appealing is the idea of reading my splendid 2021 season preamble (as Mr. eek noticed yesterday, I did forget to mention that McLaren is shifting to Mercedes engines this season, which I expect to be a net gain for them):
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/01/2021-f1-season-preamble.html
  • Betfair 1.02 Trump to leave office in 2021 (£200,000 available). With nine days to President Biden's inauguration Wednesday week, this is starting to look like free money, and that is without the possibility Trump resigns or is forced out before then. I'd imagine it is our old friend opportunity cost that means rational punters have not steamed in: there will be plenty of other bets at 1.02 in the next week and a half that pay out sooner and this makes people reluctant to tie up capital.
  • Betfair Trump to leave office before the end of his first term (nine days left):
    Yes 10
    No 1.1

    I do not suppose the Vice President has a Betfair account.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,670
    Sandpit said:



    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    When you set up false equivalencies like this - it *is* a partisan point.
  • Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich was unconscionable.

    The only controversial Obama pardon (technically clemency, as he/she did not get the conviction struck down) I can think of was Chelsea Manning, who was released after serving seven years of a 30 year sentence.

    That being said... I think, the fact that Trump is pardoning people who committed crimes *for* him, is unique. And not in a good way.
    The one I’ve been expecting is Edward Snowden, wonder if that will happen in the morning of 20th?

    I also wonder if he might do something really silly on the way out, such as pardon anyone convicted of any crime other than homicide currently in federal prison.
    There will be a few hundred people hoping Trump pardons the Capitol invaders.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich was unconscionable.

    The only controversial Obama pardon (technically clemency, as he/she did not get the conviction struck down) I can think of was Chelsea Manning, who was released after serving seven years of a 30 year sentence.

    That being said... I think, the fact that Trump is pardoning people who committed crimes *for* him, is unique. And not in a good way.
    The one I’ve been expecting is Edward Snowden, wonder if that will happen in the morning of 20th?

    I also wonder if he might do something really silly on the way out, such as pardon anyone convicted of any crime other than homicide currently in federal prison.
    There will be a few hundred people hoping Trump pardons the Capitol invaders.
    Will there be time? They'll have to be identified first
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich was unconscionable.

    The only controversial Obama pardon (technically clemency, as he/she did not get the conviction struck down) I can think of was Chelsea Manning, who was released after serving seven years of a 30 year sentence.

    That being said... I think, the fact that Trump is pardoning people who committed crimes *for* him, is unique. And not in a good way.
    The one I’ve been expecting is Edward Snowden, wonder if that will happen in the morning of 20th?

    I also wonder if he might do something really silly on the way out, such as pardon anyone convicted of any crime other than homicide currently in federal prison.
    There will be a few hundred people hoping Trump pardons the Capitol invaders.
    Will there be time? They'll have to be identified first
    Wouldn’t put it past him to try though, has a pardon ever been issued to persons unknown before?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,924

    Betfair Trump to leave office before the end of his first term (nine days left):
    Yes 10
    No 1.1

    I do not suppose the Vice President has a Betfair account.

    Wouldn't he regard gambling as sinful?
  • Betfair Trump to leave office before the end of his first term (nine days left):
    Yes 10
    No 1.1

    I do not suppose the Vice President has a Betfair account.

    Wouldn't he regard gambling as sinful?
    Yes, gambling and President Trump.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich was unconscionable.

    The only controversial Obama pardon (technically clemency, as he/she did not get the conviction struck down) I can think of was Chelsea Manning, who was released after serving seven years of a 30 year sentence.

    That being said... I think, the fact that Trump is pardoning people who committed crimes *for* him, is unique. And not in a good way.
    The one I’ve been expecting is Edward Snowden, wonder if that will happen in the morning of 20th?

    I also wonder if he might do something really silly on the way out, such as pardon anyone convicted of any crime other than homicide currently in federal prison.
    There will be a few hundred people hoping Trump pardons the Capitol invaders.
    Will there be time? They'll have to be identified first
    Wouldn’t put it past him to try though, has a pardon ever been issued to persons unknown before?
    https://ldhi.library.cofc.edu/exhibits/show/after_slavery_educator/unit_one_documents/document_two
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,924

    Betfair Trump to leave office before the end of his first term (nine days left):
    Yes 10
    No 1.1

    I do not suppose the Vice President has a Betfair account.

    Wouldn't he regard gambling as sinful?
    Yes, gambling and President Trump.
    Taken him long enough to realise!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    Trump had a mob break into the Capitol seeking to lynch Pence so I am guessing that the resign and have the VP do it door is closed.

    The temptation to look at the charges in the Impeachment today and grant a pardon covering them will be high. I think that this is more likely than not.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,924
    India played out the last day to draw withe Aussies. Very good defensive effort.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,683
    Have I missed something? What's the Pence story?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,714

    India played out the last day to draw withe Aussies. Very good defensive effort.

    Bigger, I knew I should have stayed away this morning!

    I was just popping in to say that Whitty is fantastic on PL football. “People need to look at their own lives not at others” or words to that effect.
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100
    DavidL said:

    Trump had a mob break into the Capitol seeking to lynch Pence so I am guessing that the resign and have the VP do it door is closed.

    The temptation to look at the charges in the Impeachment today and grant a pardon covering them will be high. I think that this is more likely than not.

    As I went to check things out I found this https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-02/can-joe-biden-unpardon-someone-when-he-becomes-president/12937996

    Yes it's Australian but it says you can't pardon impeachment and the papers have to be received by the person you are pardon ING.

    So I suspect Biden will need to have anti pardon paperwork ready to go the second he is sworn in.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 8,335
    What system of justice or administration allows someone to pardon themselves? Ridiculous.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498
    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100
    Andy_JS said:

    What system of justice or administration allows someone to pardon themselves? Ridiculous.

    The US (and our) systems are based on having checks and balances with honourable people in control. The people who wrote the constitution never imagined a scenario where the person at the top wasn't honourable so they never thought about the pardon yourself before the court case began scenario.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,714

    Have just heard Nadhim Zahawi on the radio saying we are allowed out to exercise for 1 hour. Then asking people not to "push against the rules". Yet 1 hour exercise isn't the rule.

    With people being arrested for daft things and others openly ignoring the rules this kind of stupid confusion from the government really isn't helpful.

    And the really bad thing is that it is focussing on something that is a fringe issue. The reality is that such activity is probably contributing a negligible amount to the spread of the virus.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,714
    edited January 11
    When should we expect to see an improvement in the situation in Israel?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    Their rolling seven-day number of cases continues to rise.

    EDIT: and deaths - I guess the impact of the vaccine might show up their first as cases may continue to rise among younger people.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 583

    Betfair Trump to leave office before the end of his first term (nine days left):
    Yes 10
    No 1.1

    I do not suppose the Vice President has a Betfair account.

    The rules don't sound like 25ing would count, as Trump would still officially be President, with Pence standing in:
    Will Donald Trump officially cease to be the President of the United States of America before the end of his first term in office has been completed?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,097
    tlg86 said:

    When should we expect to see an improvement in the situation in Israel?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    Their rolling seven-day number of cases continues to rise.

    EDIT: and deaths - I guess the impact of the vaccine might show up their first as cases may continue to rise among younger people.


    # old people in hospital, then deaths

    Think they've published the most up-to-date stats for the former. Honestly? Looks flat to me.

    given the strategy, cases falling will be one of the last things to happen.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155
    He won't pardon himself. Loss of face plus advice that it probably doesn't work.

    Not tempted to bet, but I thought I'd make a robust and falsifiable prediction.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,097
    edited January 11
    Maybe I'm being too rapid in my judgement - hit vaccination of ca. 50 % of old people on the 2nd or 3rd of January. Add a week to ten days for some protection ...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155
    "Anybody who is not shocked by the number of people in hospital who are seriously ill at the moment - and who are dying over the course of this pandemic - I think have not understood this. This is an appalling situation."

    Whitty
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,992
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What system of justice or administration allows someone to pardon themselves? Ridiculous.

    The US (and our) systems are based on having checks and balances with honourable people in control. The people who wrote the constitution never imagined a scenario where the person at the top wasn't honourable so they never thought about the pardon yourself before the court case began scenario.
    They also thought that political parties wouldn't form.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 4,225
    edited January 11
    He can do what he wants - he doesn't have the power to pardon himself. The worst that can be said is that the Constitution isn't explicit on the point, but i haven't heard a single legal commentator suggest that the Supreme Court would rule on the side that he can.

    It is, and always has been, a lawyer's debating point.

    In many ways of far more interest is the question about whether a President can issue (general) pardons to others, for events specified or unspecified without charge or conviction, that have occurred in the past. Ford/Nixon set a 'predecent' that he can - but it is not something (I believe) that has ever actually tested in court. Nixon was never charged, and no attempt was ever been made to charge him which might have caused the legal question to be explored.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,992
    IshmaelZ said:

    He won't pardon himself. Loss of face plus advice that it probably doesn't work.

    Not tempted to bet, but I thought I'd make a robust and falsifiable prediction.

    Also pardoned people lost most of their 5th amendment rights about not testifying. Bigly problem for Trump.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369
    Scott_xP said:
    There's a stack of videos on Twitter of MAGAs being escorted off planes or dragged out of airports. The FBI seems to have tracked them from the protest (using their phones?). They don't seem to be getting much support - indeed on several of the plane videos the other passengers applaud, cheer, or shout abuse. Suggesting that the political backlash could be significant.

    The guy screaming in protest that the police are "treating me like a black guy" as they sit on him is priceless.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,068
    Whitty is so much better at clearly answering questions, and explaining the regulations than any of his political masters. He really should be used more on messaging.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
    Alistair said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    He won't pardon himself. Loss of face plus advice that it probably doesn't work.

    Not tempted to bet, but I thought I'd make a robust and falsifiable prediction.

    Also pardoned people lost most of their 5th amendment rights about not testifying. Bigly problem for Trump.
    I was curious to read more about this, but couldn't see the word pardon mentioned at all on the 5th amendment wiki page. What's the basis for this?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 583
    tlg86 said:

    When should we expect to see an improvement in the situation in Israel?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    Their rolling seven-day number of cases continues to rise.

    EDIT: and deaths - I guess the impact of the vaccine might show up their first as cases may continue to rise among younger people.

    Given the various delays involved, I'd guess it's on the order of 3 weeks to case numbers and 5 weeks to death numbers. Keep in mind the vaccine doesn't help anyone already infected, and takes up to two weeks to take effect.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    He won't pardon himself. Loss of face plus advice that it probably doesn't work.

    Not tempted to bet, but I thought I'd make a robust and falsifiable prediction.

    I was pretty convinced by the "Why Trump should resign" Twitter thread. If he genuinely wants to not just stay out of jail but still have some kind of positive existence out of office, contrition would be a good idea.

    I can't see him doing it. If we have millions of people who have been literally brainwashed into believing in vast Liberal conspiracies to steal the election and end their way of life, surely the man at the heart of it is also brainwashed?

    Trump, surrounded by his idiot family and idiot advisers is surely absolutely convinced not just of his innocence but that any accusations are Fake News. It doesn't matter that he personally has been involved in working with Russia to win the 2016 election, allegations of foreign collusion are clearly fake news lies.

    I think he will double down. We should be more worried about what he can do in his final week than about will he quit or try to absolve himself.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,714

    Maybe I'm being too rapid in my judgement - hit vaccination of ca. 50 % of old people on the 2nd or 3rd of January. Add a week to ten days for some protection ...

    Fingers crossed.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,030
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    That's not quite true: the French President has similar powers, and tends to use them.

    *However*, the French President very rarely pardons individuals. Instead you usually see "incoming President xxx grants clemency to all prisoners with fewer than three months remaining on sentences, who have already served at least six months". Or somesuch.
    And presumably in the UK, HMQ could technically pardon someone?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    tlg86 said:

    When should we expect to see an improvement in the situation in Israel?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    Their rolling seven-day number of cases continues to rise.

    EDIT: and deaths - I guess the impact of the vaccine might show up their first as cases may continue to rise among younger people.

    It's certainly something to be watched very closely because it will give us a clue of what sort of percentage we need and how long any lag is. What I suspect the government will be looking at particularly closely is how long and what percentage of vaccinations are required to reduce hospital admissions. That is the key stat for the government. Having the NHS collapse is not a good look.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    There's a stack of videos on Twitter of MAGAs being escorted off planes or dragged out of airports. The FBI seems to have tracked them from the protest (using their phones?). They don't seem to be getting much support - indeed on several of the plane videos the other passengers applaud, cheer, or shout abuse. Suggesting that the political backlash could be significant.

    The guy screaming in protest that the police are "treating me like a black guy" as they sit on him is priceless.
    Heart of stone etc...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,924
    DavidL said:

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
    AIUI he cannot pardon himself against charges brought at State level; tax evasions and the like. Not that he'd need to, of course!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 5,983
    edited January 11
    DELETED.
  • Interesting thread from observers on the ground. The utter lack of federal forces or even basic event security cannot be anything other than deliberate. Which points quite firmly at it being an organised coup attempt.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,374
    I can't see why he wouldn't do it. He might be embarrassed? Ha!
  • Mary_BattyMary_Batty Posts: 295
    A couple of days ago someone assured me that Smithson is the only contributor worth his salt.
    Yesterday's thread header debacle weighs against that view, and I see we're back to not even proofreading with today's effort. Poor.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,711
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    He won't pardon himself. Loss of face plus advice that it probably doesn't work.

    Not tempted to bet, but I thought I'd make a robust and falsifiable prediction.

    Also pardoned people lost most of their 5th amendment rights about not testifying. Bigly problem for Trump.
    I was curious to read more about this, but couldn't see the word pardon mentioned at all on the 5th amendment wiki page. What's the basis for this?
    I'm no expert but believe the logic is you can't incriminate yourself if you have accepted a pardon.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    One of the weirdest processes in the US system, looking from theoutside.

    No other major democracy allows such political interference in the justice system, and even more so when there is a ten-week gap between the election and a defeated incumbent losing the powers of his office.

    Not a partisan point either. Clinton and Obama were just as bad as Trump and Bush, at pardoning politically connected people as they left office.

    That's not quite true: the French President has similar powers, and tends to use them.

    *However*, the French President very rarely pardons individuals. Instead you usually see "incoming President xxx grants clemency to all prisoners with fewer than three months remaining on sentences, who have already served at least six months". Or somesuch.
    And presumably in the UK, HMQ could technically pardon someone?
    I imagine she does it on advice from a Committee of the Privy Council (senior judges in practice) if she does it at all. I think commutation, which is a similar sort of prerogative, used to be a thing when places like Jamaica were still imposing the death penalty.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732

    DavidL said:

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
    AIUI he cannot pardon himself against charges brought at State level; tax evasions and the like. Not that he'd need to, of course!
    Yes, it only works at Federal level. I think in the past, specifically Nixon, this was rather deliberately overlooked as I am sure that there were potential state charges in relation to the break-in that could have been brought but people decided just to move on. I am not so sure that would be the case with Trump, especially if he was seeking to hide behind a self awarded pardon.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next year or so we see the collapse of Trump's businesses. No one is going to want to be associated with them and without major events they are loss making. He will also not be able to pump Federal funds into them in the way he has whilst in office. The PGA decision is ominous for him.
  • DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    When should we expect to see an improvement in the situation in Israel?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    Their rolling seven-day number of cases continues to rise.

    EDIT: and deaths - I guess the impact of the vaccine might show up their first as cases may continue to rise among younger people.

    It's certainly something to be watched very closely because it will give us a clue of what sort of percentage we need and how long any lag is. What I suspect the government will be looking at particularly closely is how long and what percentage of vaccinations are required to reduce hospital admissions. That is the key stat for the government. Having the NHS collapse is not a good look.
    Mind you, the Israelis have, I think, been using just the Pfizer vaccine, whereas we'll be using increasing amounts of the AZ vaccine. The differing efficacies of the vaccines could make a difference to the percentage of the population needing to be vaccinated.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    He won't pardon himself. Loss of face plus advice that it probably doesn't work.

    Not tempted to bet, but I thought I'd make a robust and falsifiable prediction.

    Also pardoned people lost most of their 5th amendment rights about not testifying. Bigly problem for Trump.
    I was curious to read more about this, but couldn't see the word pardon mentioned at all on the 5th amendment wiki page. What's the basis for this?
    I don't think it is explicit. The logic is, if you say "The 5th amendment prevents me from being a witness against myself," you are not being compelled to be a witness in respect of something you have been pardoned for, because the trial in which the evidence would be used against you can never take place. This is more a disincentive to Trump from pardoning others, rather than himself.
  • Mary_BattyMary_Batty Posts: 295
    RobD said:

    A couple of days ago someone assured me that Smithson is the only contributor worth his salt.
    Yesterday's thread header debacle weighs against that view, and I see we're back to not even proofreading with today's effort. Poor.

    Other sites are available.
    True, the best of which learn from and are improved by measured and specific criticism from their readership.
  • Gaussian said:

    Betfair Trump to leave office before the end of his first term (nine days left):
    Yes 10
    No 1.1

    I do not suppose the Vice President has a Betfair account.

    The rules don't sound like 25ing would count, as Trump would still officially be President, with Pence standing in:
    Will Donald Trump officially cease to be the President of the United States of America before the end of his first term in office has been completed?
    It is a grey area. My reading of the rules is removal under Amendment 25 would count provided Trump does not later regain the presidency (as he would if he were temporarily 25'd while undergoing a surgical operation, for instance). The rules use the word permanent. But yes, uncertainty as to which way Betfair will jump must be factored in.

    The relevant parts of the rules are:
    Will Donald Trump officially cease to be the President of the United States of America before the end of his first term in office has been completed?

    This includes, but is not limited to, if Donald Trump leaves office due to death (excluding assassination), incapacity, illness, impeachment or resignation (or anything comparable). All bets will be voided if Donald Trump ceases to be President of the United States of America due to an assassination or an assassination attempt.

    **Note** For clarity Donald Trump will be deemed to officially cease being President when he is replaced on a permanent basis. Any situation where he steps down on an interim/temporary basis will not count(Updated 05/10/2020 @ 17:00 GMT)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,683
    Ah, astroturfing. Makes me nostalgic for the old days when Mr. Punter very patiently explained to me how 'laying' on the Betfair Exchange works.
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100
    An interesting compare and contrast with other recent protests

    One stand out is that higher security at a march for Science headlined by Bill Nye the Science Guy.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,714
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
    AIUI he cannot pardon himself against charges brought at State level; tax evasions and the like. Not that he'd need to, of course!
    Yes, it only works at Federal level. I think in the past, specifically Nixon, this was rather deliberately overlooked as I am sure that there were potential state charges in relation to the break-in that could have been brought but people decided just to move on. I am not so sure that would be the case with Trump, especially if he was seeking to hide behind a self awarded pardon.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next year or so we see the collapse of Trump's businesses. No one is going to want to be associated with them and without major events they are loss making. He will also not be able to pump Federal funds into them in the way he has whilst in office. The PGA decision is ominous for him.
    I'd missed that; will be interesting to see which lucky course gets the 2022 PGA Championship.

    I have to say, it is a shame that Turnberry now appears to be off the Open rota. It's a fabulous course; much better than St Andrews, which they go to every 5/6 years.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    RobD said:

    A couple of days ago someone assured me that Smithson is the only contributor worth his salt.
    Yesterday's thread header debacle weighs against that view, and I see we're back to not even proofreading with today's effort. Poor.

    Other sites are available.
    True, the best of which learn from and are improved by measured and specific criticism from their readership.
    Seemed to me more like a thinly-veiled barb towards the host.
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100
    tlg86 said:

    Maybe I'm being too rapid in my judgement - hit vaccination of ca. 50 % of old people on the 2nd or 3rd of January. Add a week to ten days for some protection ...

    Fingers crossed.
    Then add another 1-2 weeks for the time it usually takes for the illness to worsen to the point Hospital is required.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,312
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
    AIUI he cannot pardon himself against charges brought at State level; tax evasions and the like. Not that he'd need to, of course!
    Yes, it only works at Federal level. I think in the past, specifically Nixon, this was rather deliberately overlooked as I am sure that there were potential state charges in relation to the break-in that could have been brought but people decided just to move on. I am not so sure that would be the case with Trump, especially if he was seeking to hide behind a self awarded pardon.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next year or so we see the collapse of Trump's businesses. No one is going to want to be associated with them and without major events they are loss making. He will also not be able to pump Federal funds into them in the way he has whilst in office. The PGA decision is ominous for him.
    I'd missed that; will be interesting to see which lucky course gets the 2022 PGA Championship.

    I have to say, it is a shame that Turnberry now appears to be off the Open rota. It's a fabulous course; much better than St Andrews, which they go to every 5/6 years.
    Is that because of the association with Trump? If so, it will be free of that once his empire collapses next year.
  • tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
    AIUI he cannot pardon himself against charges brought at State level; tax evasions and the like. Not that he'd need to, of course!
    Yes, it only works at Federal level. I think in the past, specifically Nixon, this was rather deliberately overlooked as I am sure that there were potential state charges in relation to the break-in that could have been brought but people decided just to move on. I am not so sure that would be the case with Trump, especially if he was seeking to hide behind a self awarded pardon.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next year or so we see the collapse of Trump's businesses. No one is going to want to be associated with them and without major events they are loss making. He will also not be able to pump Federal funds into them in the way he has whilst in office. The PGA decision is ominous for him.
    I'd missed that; will be interesting to see which lucky course gets the 2022 PGA Championship.

    I have to say, it is a shame that Turnberry now appears to be off the Open rota. It's a fabulous course; much better than St Andrews, which they go to every 5/6 years.
    I'm not remotely interested in Golf. But I can see how "Trump" as a brand will be dead very quickly. If its owned by Trump, it'll be dumped.
  • IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    There's a stack of videos on Twitter of MAGAs being escorted off planes or dragged out of airports. The FBI seems to have tracked them from the protest (using their phones?). They don't seem to be getting much support - indeed on several of the plane videos the other passengers applaud, cheer, or shout abuse. Suggesting that the political backlash could be significant.

    The guy screaming in protest that the police are "treating me like a black guy" as they sit on him is priceless.
    Heart of stone etc...
    Funnier would be if the MAGA Capitol invaders have their gun licences revoked. It is surely more likely they will shoot someone than hijack the airliner taking them home.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,452

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
    AIUI he cannot pardon himself against charges brought at State level; tax evasions and the like. Not that he'd need to, of course!
    Yes, it only works at Federal level. I think in the past, specifically Nixon, this was rather deliberately overlooked as I am sure that there were potential state charges in relation to the break-in that could have been brought but people decided just to move on. I am not so sure that would be the case with Trump, especially if he was seeking to hide behind a self awarded pardon.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next year or so we see the collapse of Trump's businesses. No one is going to want to be associated with them and without major events they are loss making. He will also not be able to pump Federal funds into them in the way he has whilst in office. The PGA decision is ominous for him.
    I'd missed that; will be interesting to see which lucky course gets the 2022 PGA Championship.

    I have to say, it is a shame that Turnberry now appears to be off the Open rota. It's a fabulous course; much better than St Andrews, which they go to every 5/6 years.
    I'm not remotely interested in Golf. But I can see how "Trump" as a brand will be dead very quickly. If its owned by Trump, it'll be dumped.
    Indeed. I expect within 5 years all 'Trump' branded entities will become something else. The name is mud.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What system of justice or administration allows someone to pardon themselves? Ridiculous.

    The US (and our) systems are based on having checks and balances with honourable people in control. The people who wrote the constitution never imagined a scenario where the person at the top wasn't honourable so they never thought about the pardon yourself before the court case began scenario.
    It is impossible to write a constitution that is proof against the malicious intent of those in power. At least no attempt at that has succeeded, to this point in time.

    The issue is that a large chunk of US voters are still on board the MAGA train. And a number of high elected officials, not just Trump himself.

    That is the problem.
  • Ah, astroturfing. Makes me nostalgic for the old days when Mr. Punter very patiently explained to me how 'laying' on the Betfair Exchange works.

    Who is astroturfing here? If you used the "quote" button people could see what you are talking about.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
    AIUI he cannot pardon himself against charges brought at State level; tax evasions and the like. Not that he'd need to, of course!
    Yes, it only works at Federal level. I think in the past, specifically Nixon, this was rather deliberately overlooked as I am sure that there were potential state charges in relation to the break-in that could have been brought but people decided just to move on. I am not so sure that would be the case with Trump, especially if he was seeking to hide behind a self awarded pardon.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next year or so we see the collapse of Trump's businesses. No one is going to want to be associated with them and without major events they are loss making. He will also not be able to pump Federal funds into them in the way he has whilst in office. The PGA decision is ominous for him.
    I'd missed that; will be interesting to see which lucky course gets the 2022 PGA Championship.

    I have to say, it is a shame that Turnberry now appears to be off the Open rota. It's a fabulous course; much better than St Andrews, which they go to every 5/6 years.
    It won't be on the rota whilst Trump has an interest. There is going to be a fire sale of assets soon, its inevitable.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,714

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
    AIUI he cannot pardon himself against charges brought at State level; tax evasions and the like. Not that he'd need to, of course!
    Yes, it only works at Federal level. I think in the past, specifically Nixon, this was rather deliberately overlooked as I am sure that there were potential state charges in relation to the break-in that could have been brought but people decided just to move on. I am not so sure that would be the case with Trump, especially if he was seeking to hide behind a self awarded pardon.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next year or so we see the collapse of Trump's businesses. No one is going to want to be associated with them and without major events they are loss making. He will also not be able to pump Federal funds into them in the way he has whilst in office. The PGA decision is ominous for him.
    I'd missed that; will be interesting to see which lucky course gets the 2022 PGA Championship.

    I have to say, it is a shame that Turnberry now appears to be off the Open rota. It's a fabulous course; much better than St Andrews, which they go to every 5/6 years.
    Is that because of the association with Trump? If so, it will be free of that once his empire collapses next year.
    Yes - the R&A have never said anything official, but Troon (2016 and 2024) will have hosted it twice since Turnberry last hosted it (2009). The R&A aren't especially keen on either venue due to them being a bit of a hike for spectators to get to (Birkdale and Royal Liverpool are their big paydays), but I'd have thought Turnberry would have got 2024 under normal circumstances.

    Hopefully you're right - someone should want to buy Turnberry as it's got a fabulous hotel with it.
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100
    edited January 11
    Meanwhile with Parler - it seems that the disabling of services resulted in reduced security around the software infrastructure



    and Parler's verified citizen approach means a lot of the posts are directly attributable to identifiable people.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    IshmaelZ said:

    He won't pardon himself. Loss of face plus advice that it probably doesn't work.

    Not tempted to bet, but I thought I'd make a robust and falsifiable prediction.

    He was convinced all the way that Pence could just overturn the election. Despite everyone telling him it didn't work like that. Hence the "Pence Traitor" thing.

    So it is quite conceivable that he will pardon himself - even though this won't stop impeachment. In fact, it makes it more likely for impeachment to succeed.

    There is also case law that suggesting that a self pardon would be ruled invalid, if challenged. And it would be.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
    eek said:

    Meanwhile with Parler - it seems that the disabling of services resulted in reduced security around the software infrastructure


    Why would you upload your ID to it?
  • Mary_BattyMary_Batty Posts: 295

    A couple of days ago someone assured me that Smithson is the only contributor worth his salt.
    Yesterday's thread header debacle weighs against that view, and I see we're back to not even proofreading with today's effort. Poor.

    It's hard work and they're doing it for us for free. You only did 2 sentences and I'm pretty sure one of them isn't what you meant?
    I've no doubt that it is hard work, and yes, it's cheap at twice the price. So what? It's a comment on trustworthiness, and that's pretty important these days. Well, perhaps not everyone thinks so.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,248
    eek said:

    Meanwhile with Parler - it seems that the disabling of services resulted in reduced security around the software infrastructure


    Absolute clown shoes. Meanwhile their DNS is still pointing at AWS, which is no longer responding to them...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    There's a stack of videos on Twitter of MAGAs being escorted off planes or dragged out of airports. The FBI seems to have tracked them from the protest (using their phones?). They don't seem to be getting much support - indeed on several of the plane videos the other passengers applaud, cheer, or shout abuse. Suggesting that the political backlash could be significant.

    The guy screaming in protest that the police are "treating me like a black guy" as they sit on him is priceless.
    Heart of stone etc...
    Funnier would be if the MAGA Capitol invaders have their gun licences revoked. It is surely more likely they will shoot someone than hijack the airliner taking them home.
    The one thing I am a bit confused about is how many have been identified yet. The numbers charged seem extremely small to date. If they have not been charged how will the airlines, for example, know?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    There's a stack of videos on Twitter of MAGAs being escorted off planes or dragged out of airports. The FBI seems to have tracked them from the protest (using their phones?). They don't seem to be getting much support - indeed on several of the plane videos the other passengers applaud, cheer, or shout abuse. Suggesting that the political backlash could be significant.

    The guy screaming in protest that the police are "treating me like a black guy" as they sit on him is priceless.
    Heart of stone etc...
    Funnier would be if the MAGA Capitol invaders have their gun licences revoked. It is surely more likely they will shoot someone than hijack the airliner taking them home.
    That would be an issue, if there were gun licences in the first place.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_laws_in_the_United_States_by_state

    See under "Owner license required?" for each state.
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Meanwhile with Parler - it seems that the disabling of services resulted in reduced security around the software infrastructure


    Why would you upload your ID to it?
    It gave you the equivalent of a twitter blue tick...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,466

    Interesting thread from observers on the ground. The utter lack of federal forces or even basic event security cannot be anything other than deliberate. Which points quite firmly at it being an organised coup attempt.

    "I am convinced that if Congress doesn’t act to do something about this quickly, these people are going to keep going and the unrest and violence will get more widespread and more uncontrollable. This is a crisis. It’s real. It’s happening. It must be taken seriously"

    It's nuts that impeachment wasn't rushed through over the weekend and Trump already removed from office. Impunity is incredibly dangerous.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Meanwhile with Parler - it seems that the disabling of services resulted in reduced security around the software infrastructure


    Why would you upload your ID to it?
    It gave you the equivalent of a twitter blue tick...
    The things people do for dumb things like that. Jesus.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,248
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Meanwhile with Parler - it seems that the disabling of services resulted in reduced security around the software infrastructure


    Why would you upload your ID to it?
    Apparently that was a requirement they had (although I signed up early on when I heard there was an alternative to Twitter and I didn't get that, so maybe they introduced it later on?)

    As someone was saying it's not really clear whether it was a honeypot that turned into a grift or a grift that turned into a honeypot...
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    There's a stack of videos on Twitter of MAGAs being escorted off planes or dragged out of airports. The FBI seems to have tracked them from the protest (using their phones?). They don't seem to be getting much support - indeed on several of the plane videos the other passengers applaud, cheer, or shout abuse. Suggesting that the political backlash could be significant.

    The guy screaming in protest that the police are "treating me like a black guy" as they sit on him is priceless.
    Heart of stone etc...
    Funnier would be if the MAGA Capitol invaders have their gun licences revoked. It is surely more likely they will shoot someone than hijack the airliner taking them home.
    The one thing I am a bit confused about is how many have been identified yet. The numbers charged seem extremely small to date. If they have not been charged how will the airlines, for example, know?
    See my recent posts - it seems Parler has revealed a lot of details.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Evens feels like very good value that he tries to pardon himself. I would think it more like an 80-90% chance, what has he got to lose? His integrity and soul were lost many many years ago if he ever had them.

    If an impeachment process is attempted he still has time to do it. If there is a sudden article 25 he may not but that does not seem to be on the cards unless Trump tries to escalate again, which he probably cant do without access to twatter.

    He definitely cannot pardon himself against impeachment, that is clearly excluded by the Constitution but he may be able to pardon himself of any Federal charges relating to the material in the Impeachment, such as incitment, conspiracy, attempt to pervert the course of justice , art and part responsibility for the invasion of state buildings etc. If he was then charged with any such offences in a Federal Court the question of whether the Pardon amounted to a defence would inevitably end up in the SC and add at least a year to the proceedings.
    AIUI he cannot pardon himself against charges brought at State level; tax evasions and the like. Not that he'd need to, of course!
    Yes, it only works at Federal level. I think in the past, specifically Nixon, this was rather deliberately overlooked as I am sure that there were potential state charges in relation to the break-in that could have been brought but people decided just to move on. I am not so sure that would be the case with Trump, especially if he was seeking to hide behind a self awarded pardon.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next year or so we see the collapse of Trump's businesses. No one is going to want to be associated with them and without major events they are loss making. He will also not be able to pump Federal funds into them in the way he has whilst in office. The PGA decision is ominous for him.
    The big issue for Trump will be that no-one will touch turning over his various loans. Any institution that did so, no matter what the terms, would instantly become an investigation magnet.
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100

    A couple of days ago someone assured me that Smithson is the only contributor worth his salt.
    Yesterday's thread header debacle weighs against that view, and I see we're back to not even proofreading with today's effort. Poor.

    It's hard work and they're doing it for us for free. You only did 2 sentences and I'm pretty sure one of them isn't what you meant?
    I've no doubt that it is hard work, and yes, it's cheap at twice the price. So what? It's a comment on trustworthiness, and that's pretty important these days. Well, perhaps not everyone thinks so.
    If you don't like this site (and it appears that you really don't) other sites are available on the Internet.
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