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Less than three months ago 56% of Tory members in a CONHome poll said they backed Trump – politicalb

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    edited January 2021



    Good plan & good politics by Labour:

    Actually, it is so unreasonable to expect Labour to get their shit together in Wales first ?

    If Labour manage to #LetsVaccinateWales then I might believe they could manage #LetsVaccinateBritain better than the Tories.

    But, it is so predictable what is happening. Out of the Tories, SNP, Labour and DUP/SF, who are the slowest?

    Labour are the slowest.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55573436

    We can guarantee that the one part of the country that Labour control will be last.

    If asked to guess, I'd say Scotland will finish vaccinating first, then N. Ireland, then England ... and a few months later Wales.

    In Wales, no vaccination centres have been announced & the plan is to publish vaccination data only once a week.

    When Welsh people speak to relatives & friends in England who are over 80 and being contacted, but their 80 year old Nain hasn’t heard anything, then they will start to get frustrated.

    There are real dangers here for Labour ...which SKS and his spinners will not be able to disguise.
    This 82 yr old Tadcu living in England hasn't been vaccinated either.

    Incidentally, I understand Hancock turned up to a surgery yesterday (I think) expecting to see vaccinations with the Oxford etc vaccine. However, the vaccine hadn't been delivered and an angry GP gave hime a piece of her mind. The broadcast shows him being berated, but the sound is turned off. However, the body language is unmistakable.
    Any visuals? Would love to see Hancock's mournful 'big sister's boyfriend with a car* getting dumped' expression.

    *Kudos to whoever came up with that description, can't remember if it was here or if it was an actual comedian who coined it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    Scott_xP said:
    Congratulations to Trump for finding the line, for 55% of Republicans anyway.

    Except I bet they wouldn't be objecting so much were he not to be president in a few weeks. If hed tried it during his term theyd call complaints an overreaction.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    HYUFD said:
    Tommy Tuberville has too amusing a name for a piece of scum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830

    Sandpit said:

    It seems Trump have been allowed back on Twitter but he's gone silent. Let's hope he can make it a habit.

    Maybe somebody has taken away his phone, so he can't get his tiny hands on it.
    I’d love to know who managed to talk him down earlier, Jared Kushner?

    He’s probably disappearing to Mar-a-Lago today, never to been seen nor heard from again in Washington.
    I wouldn't too surprised to see an 'alternative' Inauguration parade or similar on 20th.
    I think it was a certainty before today. Not that hes ever learned anything before, but others might now prevent him.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Personally I don't see the fascination with putting down hecklers.

    I'd rather just listen to the funny comedian tell jokes.

    Billy Conolly tells of a prolonged bout with someone yelling from the audience. Turns out the guy had slipped and hurt himself and was screaming in agony for 20 minutes
    I saw Billy Connolly at Durham around 1980. It was February, the weather was snowy/icy/fatally slippy (as it was for about five months of the year in Durham). Mr. C had travelled from Cumbria to get there and had the most shitty of days in doing so. He was not in a good mood. It wasn't hidden. Still, somebody just had to poke the rattlesnake with a stick.

    He went on the most foul-mouthed rant at this heckler you can imagine. On and on and on.

    And on.

    It seemed to be what he needed to regain his equilibrium. After that, he was back on form.

    We had a great time. Apart from the heckler, who looked like the Bolton sigil.
    I don't know why anyone does it.

    They always come off worse.
    Frankie Boyle to a heckler:
    “I’m getting paid for being a c*** tonight, what’s your excuse?”
    I used to love Boyle, but (a) he's gone off the boil recently, and become too political and (b) he now thinks it's fine to pull up other comedians for offensive comedy whereas he built his comedy career on it for years.
    Indeed, he was pretty much banned from TV for nearly a decade, until he got sober and woke. Like many, I much prefer the earlier, edgier Frankie, the one who would push the boundaries of comedy.
    Is this the kind of banned where he's appeared on TV every year for the last 15 years?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    They weren't necessarily, but became so. It's a shock to the system to discover our own weakness, that we wilĺ fold to the pressure and corrupt ourselves.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    But were they really armed with much more than flags and offensive haircuts?
    Pipe bombs. for a start, will do.
    But were they real, or just (as I read) two lookalikes? Sure, you wouldn't want to stand near one in case, but it is hardly the survivaists coming to town armed to the teeth with automatic weaponry, grenades and ammunition strung around their bodies. Not exactly Rambo doing a guided tour of Congress....
    I think that issue is now resolved.

    Edit: certainly for the political centre as a whole. It's of course possible that one or two others were lookalike, or were misidentified (very common in cnfused situations such as the London attacks of different years).

    But why a lookalike? Think about that.
    A lookalike pipe-bomb is a....pipe?
    Why would you carry around a length of pipe with wire and the ends taped over in a sensitive situation like that? There are at least four motives that I can think of, depending on what is in it.
    Apart from the uber-nutter who brought his pipe-bomb collection along, the Trumpsters weren't armed and didn't start shooting. For which we and American democracy can be eternally grateful. It was either incredibly prescient of the forces of law and order to know this about such a disparate group - suggesting they were VERY well informed from the inside. Or somebody took a hell of a risk. Not wanting to clad myself in tinfoil, but much still doesn't add up about yesterday.

    Because messy as yesterday was, we saw a breakdown of security systems that mean we could have been looking at dozens of dead Senators and Representatives. I'm not sure how today would be shaping up had they gone with greater ambitions than to trash some offices. It seems the Trumpsters had no expectation of getting anywhere near the heart of Government - and had no idea what to do when they did, other than take the Confederate flag for an impromptu tour of the building. That this seems the limited extent of their day out makes you say thank God - but also wonder how DID they get inside? And shudder at how different it could have been.
    Was it the same guy, or another one, who had the rifle & molotov cocktails ?

    There are urgent questions to be answered about the lax security, particularly as the possibility of this, or something even worse happening was very well signalled.
    There was a firearms ban in place. Don’t know how it was enforced beyond putting up notices

    https://www.newsweek.com/washington-dc-bans-guns-pro-trump-election-protests-scheduled-this-week-1558720

    The protestors do look a bit like pussies (thankfully). There's an unbridgeable gap between the prying rifles from cold dead hands rhetoric and the Village People lookalike farce they actually achieved.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sweden just added 300 deaths in it's latest Covid update
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    edited January 2021
    Deleted
  • Plenty of rats swimming in the waters around the sinking ship, it seems.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited January 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    But were they really armed with much more than flags and offensive haircuts?
    Pipe bombs. for a start, will do.
    But were they real, or just (as I read) two lookalikes? Sure, you wouldn't want to stand near one in case, but it is hardly the survivaists coming to town armed to the teeth with automatic weaponry, grenades and ammunition strung around their bodies. Not exactly Rambo doing a guided tour of Congress....
    I think that issue is now resolved.

    Edit: certainly for the political centre as a whole. It's of course possible that one or two others were lookalike, or were misidentified (very common in cnfused situations such as the London attacks of different years).

    But why a lookalike? Think about that.
    A lookalike pipe-bomb is a....pipe?
    Why would you carry around a length of pipe with wire and the ends taped over in a sensitive situation like that? There are at least four motives that I can think of, depending on what is in it.
    Apart from the uber-nutter who brought his pipe-bomb collection along, the Trumpsters weren't armed and didn't start shooting. For which we and American democracy can be eternally grateful. It was either incredibly prescient of the forces of law and order to know this about such a disparate group - suggesting they were VERY well informed from the inside. Or somebody took a hell of a risk. Not wanting to clad myself in tinfoil, but much still doesn't add up about yesterday.

    Because messy as yesterday was, we saw a breakdown of security systems that mean we could have been looking at dozens of dead Senators and Representatives. I'm not sure how today would be shaping up had they gone with greater ambitions than to trash some offices. It seems the Trumpsters had no expectation of getting anywhere near the heart of Government - and had no idea what to do when they did, other than take the Confederate flag for an impromptu tour of the building. That this seems the limited extent of their day out makes you say thank God - but also wonder how DID they get inside? And shudder at how different it could have been.
    Was it the same guy, or another one, who had the rifle & molotov cocktails ?

    There are urgent questions to be answered about the lax security, particularly as the possibility of this, or something even worse happening was very well signalled.
    There was a firearms ban in place. Don’t know how it was enforced beyond putting up notices

    https://www.newsweek.com/washington-dc-bans-guns-pro-trump-election-protests-scheduled-this-week-1558720

    The protestors do look a bit like pussies (thankfully). There's an unbridgeable gap between the prying rifles from cold dead hands rhetoric and the Village People lookalike farce they actually achieved.
    Excellently put, but we should be aware in a long-term historical sense too, though. The Beer Hall Putsch was early twentieth-century Germany's equivalent of a Village People farce.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Plenty of rats swimming in the waters around the sinking ship, it seems.

    Some being urged to stay in post:

    https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1347212067661602816?s=20
  • rjkrjk Posts: 71

    Sandpit said:

    It seems Trump have been allowed back on Twitter but he's gone silent. Let's hope he can make it a habit.

    Maybe somebody has taken away his phone, so he can't get his tiny hands on it.
    I’d love to know who managed to talk him down earlier, Jared Kushner?

    He’s probably disappearing to Mar-a-Lago today, never to been seen nor heard from again in Washington.
    I wouldn't too surprised to see an 'alternative' Inauguration parade or similar on 20th.
    Given how much of Trump's presidency has been a re-hash of ideas first developed in professional wrestling, it wouldn't surprise me at all: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Million_Dollar_Championship
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    Former SNP Justice Secretary and current MP Kenny Mackaskill on the Salmond Inquiry:

    "Meetings so far have seen episode upon episode of forgetfulness, incompetence or even downright deceit. Ricky Gervais couldn’t have written it. Yet this stellar cast has forgotten their lines, required to clarify their evidence, or set the record straight more like."

    Fair to say Kenny isn't a Sturgeon admirer.

    She, and Alex Salmond still to give evidence. She may be fireproof but stands to be scorched nonetheless.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/alex-salmond-inquiry-why-has-no-one-resigned-yet-kenny-macaskill-mp-3087337?fbclid=IwAR2_HMT9hJnLx2fEX3FLWQyJMB4QOYGYSKLR8K9BW8xotX76ARWNalUKpyE

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited January 2021
    kle4 said:

    Performative malice maybe a wee bit of a mouthful, but only one more syllable than virtue signalling which trips from the lips of the motley crew at a rapid-fire rate.

    https://twitter.com/DavieGreig/status/1347202607908052994?s=20

    It's good, but I dont think it quite works. Virtue signalling works for left and right as while they may dispute it is empty signalling, they are definitely displaying what they consider a virtue. But few would admit to engaging in malice, but object that it is not performative.
    I think it's another way of saying "vice signalling". This is the opposite type of signalling to the virtue variety and it exists in symbiotic battle with it. So when liberals pretend to be better people than they really are, reactionaries hit back with the reverse. For example, James Delingpole, deep down a big softy who thinks 'clap for carers' is a great idea, will "signal" - i.e. tweet - that he doesn't. He thinks, so he tells the world, that the whole thing is a clear example of "virtue signalling" leftist groupthink, and that every freeborn Englishman should demonstrate his contempt for it, and his determination to live strong and live free, by refusing to join in, should make sure instead, at the exact same time as the clap, to be off his face with drink, rogering the underpaid foreign au pair without a condom. Or a mask.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Burgessian said:

    » show previous quotes
    Salmond is regarded as a bad smell, even by much (if not all) of his former fan club. I don't think he is altogether reconciled to being placed in The Donald Club of embarrassing has-beens, which is why the ScotParl investigation into the Salmond/SNP related murk is worth keeping an eye on. He has yet to testify.
    Maybe it will all come to nothing. And maybe not. I honestly don't know.

    Absolute bollox, typical unionist blinkered view.

    Enlighten me, Malc. Remove my blinkers. Have they kissed and made up?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Performative malice maybe a wee bit of a mouthful, but only one more syllable than virtue signalling which trips from the lips of the motley crew at a rapid-fire rate.

    https://twitter.com/DavieGreig/status/1347202607908052994?s=20

    It's good, but I dont think it quite works. Virtue signalling works for left and right as while they may dispute it is empty signalling, they are definitely displaying what they consider a virtue. But few would admit to engaging in malice, but object that it is not performative.
    I think it's another way of saying "vice signalling". This is the opposite type of signalling to the virtue variety and it exists in symbiotic battle with it. So when liberals pretend to be better people than they really are, reactionaries hit back with the reverse. For example, James Delingpole, deep down a big softy who thinks 'clap for carers' is a great idea, will "signal" - i.e. tweet - that he doesn't. He thinks, so he tells the world, that the whole thing is a clear example of "virtue signalling" leftist groupthink, and that every freeborn Englishman should demonstrate his contempt for it, and his determination to live strong and live free, by refusing to join in, should make sure instead, at the exact same time as the clap, to be off his face with drink, rogering the underpaid foreign au pair without a condom. Or a mask.
    "Give carers the clap"?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    But were they really armed with much more than flags and offensive haircuts?
    Pipe bombs. for a start, will do.
    But were they real, or just (as I read) two lookalikes? Sure, you wouldn't want to stand near one in case, but it is hardly the survivaists coming to town armed to the teeth with automatic weaponry, grenades and ammunition strung around their bodies. Not exactly Rambo doing a guided tour of Congress....
    I think that issue is now resolved.

    Edit: certainly for the political centre as a whole. It's of course possible that one or two others were lookalike, or were misidentified (very common in cnfused situations such as the London attacks of different years).

    But why a lookalike? Think about that.
    A lookalike pipe-bomb is a....pipe?
    Why would you carry around a length of pipe with wire and the ends taped over in a sensitive situation like that? There are at least four motives that I can think of, depending on what is in it.
    Apart from the uber-nutter who brought his pipe-bomb collection along, the Trumpsters weren't armed and didn't start shooting. For which we and American democracy can be eternally grateful. It was either incredibly prescient of the forces of law and order to know this about such a disparate group - suggesting they were VERY well informed from the inside. Or somebody took a hell of a risk. Not wanting to clad myself in tinfoil, but much still doesn't add up about yesterday.

    Because messy as yesterday was, we saw a breakdown of security systems that mean we could have been looking at dozens of dead Senators and Representatives. I'm not sure how today would be shaping up had they gone with greater ambitions than to trash some offices. It seems the Trumpsters had no expectation of getting anywhere near the heart of Government - and had no idea what to do when they did, other than take the Confederate flag for an impromptu tour of the building. That this seems the limited extent of their day out makes you say thank God - but also wonder how DID they get inside? And shudder at how different it could have been.
    Was it the same guy, or another one, who had the rifle & molotov cocktails ?

    There are urgent questions to be answered about the lax security, particularly as the possibility of this, or something even worse happening was very well signalled.
    There was a firearms ban in place. Don’t know how it was enforced beyond putting up notices

    https://www.newsweek.com/washington-dc-bans-guns-pro-trump-election-protests-scheduled-this-week-1558720

    The protestors do look a bit like pussies (thankfully). There's an unbridgeable gap between the prying rifles from cold dead hands rhetoric and the Village People lookalike farce they actually achieved.
    Excellently put, but we should be aware in a long-term historical sense too, though. The Beer Hall Putsch was early twentieth-century Germany's equivalent of a Village People farce.
    Were he still with us Ernst Röhm would probably been a big Village People fan.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2021
    New record on testing and bad day on deaths.


  • Alistair said:
    Commie private businesses and their commie business decisions.

    https://twitter.com/R_Fulling/status/1347215507930423305?s=20
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    52,618 cases. Increasingly looking like the rise has been stopped.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830

    Alistair said:
    Commie private businesses and their commie business decisions.

    https://twitter.com/R_Fulling/status/1347215507930423305?s=20
    Communism never looked so good.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Personally I don't see the fascination with putting down hecklers.

    I'd rather just listen to the funny comedian tell jokes.

    Billy Conolly tells of a prolonged bout with someone yelling from the audience. Turns out the guy had slipped and hurt himself and was screaming in agony for 20 minutes
    I saw Billy Connolly at Durham around 1980. It was February, the weather was snowy/icy/fatally slippy (as it was for about five months of the year in Durham). Mr. C had travelled from Cumbria to get there and had the most shitty of days in doing so. He was not in a good mood. It wasn't hidden. Still, somebody just had to poke the rattlesnake with a stick.

    He went on the most foul-mouthed rant at this heckler you can imagine. On and on and on.

    And on.

    It seemed to be what he needed to regain his equilibrium. After that, he was back on form.

    We had a great time. Apart from the heckler, who looked like the Bolton sigil.
    I don't know why anyone does it.

    They always come off worse.
    One of my mates got targeted by Jim Davidson at his panto thing and shouted back “why don’t you go and bash your missus up you hard bastard” which I thought was pretty good
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    But were they really armed with much more than flags and offensive haircuts?
    Pipe bombs. for a start, will do.
    But were they real, or just (as I read) two lookalikes? Sure, you wouldn't want to stand near one in case, but it is hardly the survivaists coming to town armed to the teeth with automatic weaponry, grenades and ammunition strung around their bodies. Not exactly Rambo doing a guided tour of Congress....
    I think that issue is now resolved.

    Edit: certainly for the political centre as a whole. It's of course possible that one or two others were lookalike, or were misidentified (very common in cnfused situations such as the London attacks of different years).

    But why a lookalike? Think about that.
    A lookalike pipe-bomb is a....pipe?
    Why would you carry around a length of pipe with wire and the ends taped over in a sensitive situation like that? There are at least four motives that I can think of, depending on what is in it.
    Apart from the uber-nutter who brought his pipe-bomb collection along, the Trumpsters weren't armed and didn't start shooting. For which we and American democracy can be eternally grateful. It was either incredibly prescient of the forces of law and order to know this about such a disparate group - suggesting they were VERY well informed from the inside. Or somebody took a hell of a risk. Not wanting to clad myself in tinfoil, but much still doesn't add up about yesterday.

    Because messy as yesterday was, we saw a breakdown of security systems that mean we could have been looking at dozens of dead Senators and Representatives. I'm not sure how today would be shaping up had they gone with greater ambitions than to trash some offices. It seems the Trumpsters had no expectation of getting anywhere near the heart of Government - and had no idea what to do when they did, other than take the Confederate flag for an impromptu tour of the building. That this seems the limited extent of their day out makes you say thank God - but also wonder how DID they get inside? And shudder at how different it could have been.
    Was it the same guy, or another one, who had the rifle & molotov cocktails ?

    There are urgent questions to be answered about the lax security, particularly as the possibility of this, or something even worse happening was very well signalled.
    There was a firearms ban in place. Don’t know how it was enforced beyond putting up notices

    https://www.newsweek.com/washington-dc-bans-guns-pro-trump-election-protests-scheduled-this-week-1558720

    The protestors do look a bit like pussies (thankfully). There's an unbridgeable gap between the prying rifles from cold dead hands rhetoric and the Village People lookalike farce they actually achieved.
    Excellently put, but we should be aware in a long-term historical sense too, though. The Beer Hall Putsch was early twentieth-century Germany's equivalent of a Village People farce.
    Were he still with us Ernst Röhm would probably been a big Village People fan.
    And at 133 the world's oldest person.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Performative malice maybe a wee bit of a mouthful, but only one more syllable than virtue signalling which trips from the lips of the motley crew at a rapid-fire rate.

    https://twitter.com/DavieGreig/status/1347202607908052994?s=20

    It's good, but I dont think it quite works. Virtue signalling works for left and right as while they may dispute it is empty signalling, they are definitely displaying what they consider a virtue. But few would admit to engaging in malice, but object that it is not performative.
    I think it's another way of saying "vice signalling". This is the opposite type of signalling to the virtue variety and it exists in symbiotic battle with it. So when liberals pretend to be better people than they really are, reactionaries hit back with the reverse. For example, James Delingpole, deep down a big softy who thinks 'clap for carers' is a great idea, will "signal" - i.e. tweet - that he doesn't. He thinks, so he tells the world, that the whole thing is a clear example of "virtue signalling" leftist groupthink, and that every freeborn Englishman should demonstrate his contempt for it, and his determination to live strong and live free, by refusing to join in, should make sure instead, at the exact same time as the clap, to be off his face with drink, rogering the underpaid foreign au pair without a condom. Or a mask.
    "Give carers the clap"?
    In this case, literally yes. Spot on. :smile:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    UK deaths 1,162 over past 24 hrs
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    Gaussian said:

    52,618 cases. Increasingly looking like the rise has been stopped.

    I had a Christmas theory - combination of doom mongering, tightening restrictions in some areas, and closure of work/school etc would outweigh limited Christmas mixing.

  • Sandpit said:

    It seems Trump have been allowed back on Twitter but he's gone silent. Let's hope he can make it a habit.

    Maybe somebody has taken away his phone, so he can't get his tiny hands on it.
    I’d love to know who managed to talk him down earlier, Jared Kushner?

    He’s probably disappearing to Mar-a-Lago today, never to been seen nor heard from again in Washington.
    I wouldn't too surprised to see an 'alternative' Inauguration parade or similar on 20th.
    Ladbrokes: Trump to attend 2021 inauguration?
    No 1/4
    Yes 11/4
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Personally I don't see the fascination with putting down hecklers.

    I'd rather just listen to the funny comedian tell jokes.

    Billy Conolly tells of a prolonged bout with someone yelling from the audience. Turns out the guy had slipped and hurt himself and was screaming in agony for 20 minutes
    I saw Billy Connolly at Durham around 1980. It was February, the weather was snowy/icy/fatally slippy (as it was for about five months of the year in Durham). Mr. C had travelled from Cumbria to get there and had the most shitty of days in doing so. He was not in a good mood. It wasn't hidden. Still, somebody just had to poke the rattlesnake with a stick.

    He went on the most foul-mouthed rant at this heckler you can imagine. On and on and on.

    And on.

    It seemed to be what he needed to regain his equilibrium. After that, he was back on form.

    We had a great time. Apart from the heckler, who looked like the Bolton sigil.
    I don't know why anyone does it.

    They always come off worse.
    One of my mates got targeted by Jim Davidson at his panto thing and shouted back “why don’t you go and bash your missus up you hard bastard” which I thought was pretty good
    Another time we were in a club and the comedian said “can you lads in the corner hear alright? Can’t hear you laughing much?” And my mate said “loud and clear you unfunny c*nt”... I felt sorry for the comedian to be honest
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    edited January 2021
    Alistair said:
    I think Trump might be a bit shit at the whole social media thing - hasn't even bothered to get himself on Parler.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Gaussian said:

    52,618 cases. Increasingly looking like the rise has been stopped.

    And I'm happy to have been wrong about Monday 4 Jan. 55k cases so far, and probably not too many more to come, so hopefully 29 Dec will stay the worst day.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2021
    After a strong start Scotland is trailing off badly in the whole Vaccination stakes.

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993
    Okay, fair's fair:

    We saw Alistair Haimes' name raised earlier, and I've just found out that he has written this:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lockdown-sceptics-should-support-this-lockdown

    In short: He fully supports the current lockdown, he points out the skyrocketing levels of hospitalisations and positivity, and says that the availability of a vaccine makes it inarguable that this is the right thing to do.

    I have to say, I'm impressed and this does deserve some recognition.
  • dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    But were they really armed with much more than flags and offensive haircuts?
    Pipe bombs. for a start, will do.
    But were they real, or just (as I read) two lookalikes? Sure, you wouldn't want to stand near one in case, but it is hardly the survivaists coming to town armed to the teeth with automatic weaponry, grenades and ammunition strung around their bodies. Not exactly Rambo doing a guided tour of Congress....
    I think that issue is now resolved.

    Edit: certainly for the political centre as a whole. It's of course possible that one or two others were lookalike, or were misidentified (very common in cnfused situations such as the London attacks of different years).

    But why a lookalike? Think about that.
    A lookalike pipe-bomb is a....pipe?
    Why would you carry around a length of pipe with wire and the ends taped over in a sensitive situation like that? There are at least four motives that I can think of, depending on what is in it.
    Apart from the uber-nutter who brought his pipe-bomb collection along, the Trumpsters weren't armed and didn't start shooting. For which we and American democracy can be eternally grateful. It was either incredibly prescient of the forces of law and order to know this about such a disparate group - suggesting they were VERY well informed from the inside. Or somebody took a hell of a risk. Not wanting to clad myself in tinfoil, but much still doesn't add up about yesterday.

    Because messy as yesterday was, we saw a breakdown of security systems that mean we could have been looking at dozens of dead Senators and Representatives. I'm not sure how today would be shaping up had they gone with greater ambitions than to trash some offices. It seems the Trumpsters had no expectation of getting anywhere near the heart of Government - and had no idea what to do when they did, other than take the Confederate flag for an impromptu tour of the building. That this seems the limited extent of their day out makes you say thank God - but also wonder how DID they get inside? And shudder at how different it could have been.
    Was it the same guy, or another one, who had the rifle & molotov cocktails ?

    There are urgent questions to be answered about the lax security, particularly as the possibility of this, or something even worse happening was very well signalled.
    There was a firearms ban in place. Don’t know how it was enforced beyond putting up notices

    https://www.newsweek.com/washington-dc-bans-guns-pro-trump-election-protests-scheduled-this-week-1558720

    The protestors do look a bit like pussies (thankfully). There's an unbridgeable gap between the prying rifles from cold dead hands rhetoric and the Village People lookalike farce they actually achieved.
    Excellently put, but we should be aware in a long-term historical sense too, though. The Beer Hall Putsch was early twentieth-century Germany's equivalent of a Village People farce.
    Were he still with us Ernst Röhm would probably been a big Village People fan.
    And at 133 the world's oldest person.
    Master race, good genes and all that!

    Actually he'd only have been in his 80s during their heyday, which is quite a thought.

    'I like the one with the breeches and high boots the best.'
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112

    Okay, fair's fair:

    We saw Alistair Haimes' name raised earlier, and I've just found out that he has written this:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lockdown-sceptics-should-support-this-lockdown

    In short: He fully supports the current lockdown, he points out the skyrocketing levels of hospitalisations and positivity, and says that the availability of a vaccine makes it inarguable that this is the right thing to do.

    I have to say, I'm impressed and this does deserve some recognition.

    Yes, it is a very fair article.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Alistair said:

    After a strong start Scotland is trailing off badly in the whole Vaccination stakes.

    AIUI, Scotland was ahead of the UK-wide average, so it kinda makes sense that they will fall back so as to come into line with that average. Unless a) Scotland expects more than its UK share of vaccines or b) the SNP has its own vaccine-purchase programme.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    IanB2 said:

    UK deaths 1,162 over past 24 hrs

    Its not better really, but the date of death is running around 600. There are clearly big catch-up/weekend/NY effects distorting the data.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    @isam

    These "mates" are all you, right?

    You're just being self-deprecating, pretending it's someone else coming up with the gems.

    No need to answer. Eye know.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2021
    https://twitter.com/RepKinzinger/status/1347207878801846276?s=20

    "The President is unfit. The President is unwell"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    On the subject of the virus, the only number I'd be looking at is the Israeli on: what's happening with their CV19 cases? At 5% of people vaccinated, what does that do to case numbers? What about at 10%? 15% Etc. (Bear in mind that it takes about 10 days before the virus starts reducing CV19 incidence meaningfully: so, the numbers for Israel probably reflect barely - if any - impact from the vaccine.)

    But over the next two weeks, we may see the start of a sustained decline in CV19 cases. If we do, that is really excellent news for the world. (Albeit, we'll probably need to see Moderna and BioNTech tweak their mRNA vaccines for SA Variant Covid.)

    Now, a question for our medical folk: given how easy it is to adjust mRNA vaccines, do we think that getting a SA-adjusted-CV19-vaccine through trials will take so long?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    Mortimer said:

    Gaussian said:

    52,618 cases. Increasingly looking like the rise has been stopped.

    I had a Christmas theory - combination of doom mongering, tightening restrictions in some areas, and closure of work/school etc would outweigh limited Christmas mixing.

    My theory is that closing schools will be the biggest reason for the rise stopping.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of the virus, the only number I'd be looking at is the Israeli on: what's happening with their CV19 cases? At 5% of people vaccinated, what does that do to case numbers? What about at 10%? 15% Etc. (Bear in mind that it takes about 10 days before the virus starts reducing CV19 incidence meaningfully: so, the numbers for Israel probably reflect barely - if any - impact from the vaccine.)

    But over the next two weeks, we may see the start of a sustained decline in CV19 cases. If we do, that is really excellent news for the world. (Albeit, we'll probably need to see Moderna and BioNTech tweak their mRNA vaccines for SA Variant Covid.)

    Now, a question for our medical folk: given how easy it is to adjust mRNA vaccines, do we think that getting a SA-adjusted-CV19-vaccine through trials will take so long?

    Re adjusted vaccines, I heard that they may not need specific approval (similar to seasonal flu). In principal I suspect Pfizer and Moderna could switch in very short order if needed. (Weeks not months/years)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited January 2021
    BREAKING: Senate Dem Leader Schumer calling for Pence to immediately invoke 25th amendment; if he refuses, Congress should impeach Trump. Quickest sanction is to remove him from office, insisting Pence acts today

    Pelosi press conference 6pm UK time
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited January 2021
    UK case numbers by specimen date

    image

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK case numbers by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK Local R

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK case summary

    Today

    image

    Yesterday

    image
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Alistair said:

    After a strong start Scotland is trailing off badly in the whole Vaccination stakes.

    AIUI, Scotland was ahead of the UK-wide average, so it kinda makes sense that they will fall back so as to come into line with that average. Unless a) Scotland expects more than its UK share of vaccines or b) the SNP has its own vaccine-purchase programme.
    Scotland also started with healthcare workers. Vaccinating care home residents, which is where we are now, is bound to be slower.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK positivity

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK Hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK Deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    But were they really armed with much more than flags and offensive haircuts?
    Pipe bombs. for a start, will do.
    But were they real, or just (as I read) two lookalikes? Sure, you wouldn't want to stand near one in case, but it is hardly the survivaists coming to town armed to the teeth with automatic weaponry, grenades and ammunition strung around their bodies. Not exactly Rambo doing a guided tour of Congress....
    I think that issue is now resolved.

    Edit: certainly for the political centre as a whole. It's of course possible that one or two others were lookalike, or were misidentified (very common in cnfused situations such as the London attacks of different years).

    But why a lookalike? Think about that.
    A lookalike pipe-bomb is a....pipe?
    Why would you carry around a length of pipe with wire and the ends taped over in a sensitive situation like that? There are at least four motives that I can think of, depending on what is in it.
    Apart from the uber-nutter who brought his pipe-bomb collection along, the Trumpsters weren't armed and didn't start shooting. For which we and American democracy can be eternally grateful. It was either incredibly prescient of the forces of law and order to know this about such a disparate group - suggesting they were VERY well informed from the inside. Or somebody took a hell of a risk. Not wanting to clad myself in tinfoil, but much still doesn't add up about yesterday.

    Because messy as yesterday was, we saw a breakdown of security systems that mean we could have been looking at dozens of dead Senators and Representatives. I'm not sure how today would be shaping up had they gone with greater ambitions than to trash some offices. It seems the Trumpsters had no expectation of getting anywhere near the heart of Government - and had no idea what to do when they did, other than take the Confederate flag for an impromptu tour of the building. That this seems the limited extent of their day out makes you say thank God - but also wonder how DID they get inside? And shudder at how different it could have been.
    Was it the same guy, or another one, who had the rifle & molotov cocktails ?

    There are urgent questions to be answered about the lax security, particularly as the possibility of this, or something even worse happening was very well signalled.
    There was a firearms ban in place. Don’t know how it was enforced beyond putting up notices

    https://www.newsweek.com/washington-dc-bans-guns-pro-trump-election-protests-scheduled-this-week-1558720

    The protestors do look a bit like pussies (thankfully). There's an unbridgeable gap between the prying rifles from cold dead hands rhetoric and the Village People lookalike farce they actually achieved.
    It's going to be a brave person who testifies at the Congressional inquiry that "We didn't expect any trouble becaause we'd put up signs saying about the firearms ban...."

    Perhaps America is in a better place than we feared when the revolution leaves its weapons at home.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    IanB2 said:

    UK deaths 1,162 over past 24 hrs

    Due to the lag from cases, it will be a long dark January
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of the virus, the only number I'd be looking at is the Israeli on: what's happening with their CV19 cases? At 5% of people vaccinated, what does that do to case numbers? What about at 10%? 15% Etc. (Bear in mind that it takes about 10 days before the virus starts reducing CV19 incidence meaningfully: so, the numbers for Israel probably reflect barely - if any - impact from the vaccine.)

    But over the next two weeks, we may see the start of a sustained decline in CV19 cases. If we do, that is really excellent news for the world. (Albeit, we'll probably need to see Moderna and BioNTech tweak their mRNA vaccines for SA Variant Covid.)

    Impossible to tell apart the effect of the vaccines from the effect of whatever restrictions they have in place and how well people adhere to them though, at least at short timeframes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    R

    From case data

    image
    image

    From hospital data

    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of the virus, the only number I'd be looking at is the Israeli on: what's happening with their CV19 cases? At 5% of people vaccinated, what does that do to case numbers? What about at 10%? 15% Etc. (Bear in mind that it takes about 10 days before the virus starts reducing CV19 incidence meaningfully: so, the numbers for Israel probably reflect barely - if any - impact from the vaccine.)

    But over the next two weeks, we may see the start of a sustained decline in CV19 cases. If we do, that is really excellent news for the world. (Albeit, we'll probably need to see Moderna and BioNTech tweak their mRNA vaccines for SA Variant Covid.)

    Now, a question for our medical folk: given how easy it is to adjust mRNA vaccines, do we think that getting a SA-adjusted-CV19-vaccine through trials will take so long?

    I think once safety is confirmed that modifying the mRNA vaccines shouldn't be a big issue and wouldn't need prolonged trials. After all we do modify flu vaccines each year without trials.

    On the subject of "flu season":

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1347220120054198274?s=19
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Age related data

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Mortimer said:

    Gaussian said:

    52,618 cases. Increasingly looking like the rise has been stopped.

    I had a Christmas theory - combination of doom mongering, tightening restrictions in some areas, and closure of work/school etc would outweigh limited Christmas mixing.

    My theory is that closing schools will be the biggest reason for the rise stopping.
    I don't think the rise has stopped. What has happened is the Christmas effect has unwound.

    If you look at the graph below, and use the huge peak on 29th to "fill in" the "hole" around Christmas, we are still on an upward trend.

    image
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Alistair said:

    After a strong start Scotland is trailing off badly in the whole Vaccination stakes.

    AIUI, Scotland was ahead of the UK-wide average, so it kinda makes sense that they will fall back so as to come into line with that average. Unless a) Scotland expects more than its UK share of vaccines or b) the SNP has its own vaccine-purchase programme.
    Scotland also started with healthcare workers. Vaccinating care home residents, which is where we are now, is bound to be slower.
    GP practices in Scotland will vaccinate the the over 80's with the AstraZeneca vaccine AIUI. The more tolerant handling properties, compared with Pfizer, allows them to vaccinate either in the surgery or at the patient's home. Younger and more mobile patients will be vaccinated in central facilities set up for the pupose.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited January 2021
    I wonder if Twitter has peformed an interesting manoeuvre on Trump. Twitter was his crucial, central conduit for 10 years, but apparently his reinstatement comes with particular non-inflammatory conditions. Without being able to subtly stoke his fires, and continue his 'struggle' in some way to supporters, he'll just looked humiliated ; so maybe faced with all sorts of stalemates, he's wondering off to Camp David to lick his wounds.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    @isam

    These "mates" are all you, right?

    You're just being self-deprecating, pretending it's someone else coming up with the gems.

    No need to answer. Eye know.

    Neither were me, no! Couple of funny f*ckers but I don’t think they’d last long on here
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Mortimer said:

    Gaussian said:

    52,618 cases. Increasingly looking like the rise has been stopped.

    I had a Christmas theory - combination of doom mongering, tightening restrictions in some areas, and closure of work/school etc would outweigh limited Christmas mixing.

    My theory is that closing schools will be the biggest reason for the rise stopping.
    I don't think the rise has stopped. What has happened is the Christmas effect has unwound.

    If you look at the graph below, and use the huge peak on 29th to "fill in" the "hole" around Christmas, we are still on an upward trend.

    image
    "Oh We've survived it, The Great War, From 1914 to 1917."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    BREAKING: Senate Dem Leader Schumer calling for Pence to immediately invoke 25th amendment; if he refuses, Congress should impeach Trump. Quickest sanction is to remove him from office, insisting Pence acts today

    Pelosi press conference 6pm UK time
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of the virus, the only number I'd be looking at is the Israeli on: what's happening with their CV19 cases? At 5% of people vaccinated, what does that do to case numbers? What about at 10%? 15% Etc. (Bear in mind that it takes about 10 days before the virus starts reducing CV19 incidence meaningfully: so, the numbers for Israel probably reflect barely - if any - impact from the vaccine.)

    But over the next two weeks, we may see the start of a sustained decline in CV19 cases. If we do, that is really excellent news for the world. (Albeit, we'll probably need to see Moderna and BioNTech tweak their mRNA vaccines for SA Variant Covid.)

    Now, a question for our medical folk: given how easy it is to adjust mRNA vaccines, do we think that getting a SA-adjusted-CV19-vaccine through trials will take so long?

    10 days ago, Israel had around 5% vaccinated. 7 days ago it was 10%. Infection numbers, as in most countries, are bouncing around all over the place due to holiday effects.

    Good question on trials for modified vaccines, presumably they don’t have to start from scratch and can build on approvals already given for the original formulation?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,595
    edited January 2021
    Alistair said:

    After a strong start Scotland is trailing off badly in the whole Vaccination stakes.

    Is it not just lack of supply as per England? This week it should start to ramp up.

    My Dad got the Pfizer vaccine yesterday.

    There were 3 desks, one doing the stabbing, one handing over a vaccination card and a timing for the end of the 15 minute wait, and one entering the details on a computer.

    With about 30-35 socially distanced chairs in the venue I reckon they were doing about one person roughly every 30 seconds. Over an normal day that would equate roughly to one batch of 975.

    About 15 people in total managing the venue but only 3 of those doing the actual work.


    There are 1000s of GPs and about 350 official vaccination centres that I know of. There's no way that they won't be able to do people fast enough provided:

    a) There is sufficient supply
    b) The vaccine gets delivered to the right place once supply is available

    I doubt we'll need a huge army of people doing the actual vaccination.

    I hope that once they've got a few days 'buffer' in the supply it will be easier to say exactly where and when each batch will be available.

    Also, if there are no allergic reactions from AZN, it could be done in a drive-thru.





  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830

    I wonder if Twitter has peformed an interesting manoeuvre on Trump. Twitter was his crucial conduit, but apparently his reinstatement comes with particular non-inflammatory conditions. Without being able to subtly stoke his fires, and continue the struggle in some way, he'll appear humiliated, so maybe faced with a stalemate on all fronts he's wondering off to Camp David to lick his wounds.

    Part that, and part he now lacks options for stoking. I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure in the aftermath of the election in November there was a period where his social media output was considerably below normal. If that is so, it may be because he was depressed, but also because he felt powerless to do anything - once pathways to stopping his defeat opened up he had something to feed off, but there's no path to remaining in power now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Again, it's a great demonstration of the benefits of having an infrastructure in place for conducting such trials (& also great that Actemra is a readily available treatment.)

    Most things governments have tried to do from scratch in reaction to the pandemic have not worked out terrifically well.
    If it's there (like with the vaccines) you can turbocharge it with government funding.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    IshmaelZ said:

    Mortimer said:

    Gaussian said:

    52,618 cases. Increasingly looking like the rise has been stopped.

    I had a Christmas theory - combination of doom mongering, tightening restrictions in some areas, and closure of work/school etc would outweigh limited Christmas mixing.

    My theory is that closing schools will be the biggest reason for the rise stopping.
    I don't think the rise has stopped. What has happened is the Christmas effect has unwound.

    If you look at the graph below, and use the huge peak on 29th to "fill in" the "hole" around Christmas, we are still on an upward trend.

    image
    "Oh We've survived it, The Great War, From 1914 to 1917."
    If the rise in cases has been stopped, the situation is only awful. If cases continue to rise further despite the lockdown, it's catastrophic. A drop in cases next week would be good to see, especially as the data will be more directly comparable with this week.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    @isam

    These "mates" are all you, right?

    You're just being self-deprecating, pretending it's someone else coming up with the gems.

    No need to answer. Eye know.

    Neither were me, no! Couple of funny f*ckers but I don’t think they’d last long on here
    I suppose they're a bit "trad" and would possibly need rebuking from time to time if they came on here.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Supporting Trump in one matter doesn't mean that you have to support him in every matter.

    The deeply windy seem to want to establish any alignment with Trump, ever, as a thought crime.

    Trump was always going to be a ghastly president in most ways. The only surprise is that he actually managed to be good in some ways. At the time of his inauguration we were betting on just weeks of survival.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:



    To be fair to Jo Brand (yes, I know) it was a pre-recorded programme, so it was up to the editor which jokes made the cut and which stayed between the live audience and the participants.

    Anyone who’s ever attended a recording of HIGNFY or Mock The Week knows that there’s an awful lot of well-over-the-line jokes told in these settings, that no-one expects to actually be aired.

    I prefer Jo Brand to the endless minor public school, Oxbridge wankers doing what passes for comedy on R4. And, of course, I don't think Jo was recommending it as a course of action. She was looking for a gag & did not think.

    There is a long tradition of throwing flour or eggs or rotting vegetables as political protest.

    And, of course, a well-aimed egg can cheer the hearts of millions.

    But, even joking about throwing acid takes the cheeriness away.
    Very true. It was in poor taste and landed badly, but that’s what comedians do. I’m not sure she ever expected it to air, but the editors and the BBC thought it was fine.

    Which tells us a lot more about the BBC, than it does about the comedian.

    Frankie Boyle’s infamous “Princess Diana Joke” on MTW wasn’t seen for several years after it was recorded, was finally released only on an 18-rated outtakes DVD, never shown on TV.
    Serious question...Who is a really good stand-up these days? That has the material, can judge a room, take on the hecklers etc? So many of the regulars on these panel shows are very poor live comedians.

    The best I have seen in the past few years is Ross Noble, but because so much of it is improv, he can also miss badly as well. Far too many that were ok, have a bit like Scott n Paste, been driven made by Brexit and can only do Brexit is shit, Orange man bad stuff, and you can feel it in the audience people don't want that. Its divisive and you can only hear so many ways of they are shit jokes before you have heard them all.

    I saw Mark Watson 18 months ago, and he had at least the sense to have twigged nobody wants that and came out and said you guys pay your money to have a night off from the real world, so I am not doing anything fights over Brexit, instead this show is all about something much more depressing my divorce.

    I used to like Mark Thomas live, but how he is much older, he doesn't really have the tales to tell about all his experiences on joining crazies on a protest. His show about his wife beating dad who loved opera and died a horrible death although not his funniest work, was incredibly moving.
    I saw Stewart Lee a few years ago, he was very funny. I've not seen Kevin Bridges live but the bits of his shows I've seen on YouTube etc look good.
    Nipping in to share with this great site full of great people with impeccable taste one of Lee's greatest hits. If he were Pulp this would be Common People. I know you've seen it but it will slay anybody who hasn't -

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a17duTUK6qw
    Honestly I don't really get it... everyone (left wing) tells me how funny Stewart Lee is and how clever he is... but he's merely moderately amusing to me.

    When I saw him live, he had absolute mastery over the audience, but I didn't actually spend that much time laughing.
    A lot of people who aren't left wing like Lee. But of course humour is a personal thing. For me, he has it all. The delivery is skilled and forceful. He's charismatic. The material is clever but doesn't sacrifice laughs to be that way. He's on a mission to crease you up and if it makes a point fine. It's not the other way around, which is a trap some lefty comics can fall into.

    Who does do it for you then?
    Dara O'Briain is my favourite. I've seen Dara live a few times and always enjoyed it.
    When 40%+ is audience participation, I feel like even seeing the same set multiple times is great.
    I also like panel shows more than the next man. This I found hilarious (particularly Dara's final burn).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HYxJp02W1w
    Yes, I found that funny. Totally different sort of thing from a Lee riff. Not political. Ensemble repartee. All of it - and them - sharp.
    Could never happen now - an all-bloke line-up.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Gaussian said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Mortimer said:

    Gaussian said:

    52,618 cases. Increasingly looking like the rise has been stopped.

    I had a Christmas theory - combination of doom mongering, tightening restrictions in some areas, and closure of work/school etc would outweigh limited Christmas mixing.

    My theory is that closing schools will be the biggest reason for the rise stopping.
    I don't think the rise has stopped. What has happened is the Christmas effect has unwound.

    If you look at the graph below, and use the huge peak on 29th to "fill in" the "hole" around Christmas, we are still on an upward trend.

    image
    "Oh We've survived it, The Great War, From 1914 to 1917."
    If the rise in cases has been stopped, the situation is only awful. If cases continue to rise further despite the lockdown, it's catastrophic. A drop in cases next week would be good to see, especially as the data will be more directly comparable with this week.
    It is very hard to tell at this point - lockdowns take a while to kick in.

    I would strongly doubt we will get to a fall next week - we might hope for a levelling off.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Omnium said:

    Supporting Trump in one matter doesn't mean that you have to support him in every matter.

    The deeply windy seem to want to establish any alignment with Trump, ever, as a thought crime.

    Trump was always going to be a ghastly president in most ways. The only surprise is that he actually managed to be good in some ways. At the time of his inauguration we were betting on just weeks of survival.

    The American right is shattered and broken. Civil war awaits. The Georgia run offs showed they won't be winning again anytime soon.

    The Democrats can do what they want. Its just a question of when the world works out it isn;t really a two party state any more, in the sense it used to be.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Spread on senate impeachment numbers maybe 63-65? Feels pretty close, would think about 75 if McConnell is in, 60ish if he is out?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    I wonder if Twitter has peformed an interesting manoeuvre on Trump. Twitter was his crucial, central conduit for 10 years, but apparently his reinstatement comes with particular non-inflammatory conditions. Without being able to subtly stoke his fires, and continue his 'struggle' in some way to supporters, he'll just looked humiliated ; so maybe faced with all sorts of stalemates, he's wondering off to Camp David to lick his wounds.

    Could this be the spirit and shape of a possible post WH deal with the clan?

    Avoid jail and bankruptcy. Avoid media and politics.

    Florida. Golf for Snr and Jnr. Charity work for Ivanka. Melania finds a man her own age who will allow her to be the woman she wants to be.
  • How long before Bozo’s pharmaceutical pronunciation is memed ? Lol. He has Clearly never heard of the 6 Ps
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Omnium said:

    Supporting Trump in one matter doesn't mean that you have to support him in every matter.

    The deeply windy seem to want to establish any alignment with Trump, ever, as a thought crime.

    Trump was always going to be a ghastly president in most ways. The only surprise is that he actually managed to be good in some ways. At the time of his inauguration we were betting on just weeks of survival.

    He has been a spectacularly bad loser. Predictable. But there's still something jaw-dropping about him smashing the train set against the White House walls so that no-one else can play with it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    Much as being prevented from holding office again would be appropriate, as the days unfold I find it hard to think enough people will want to impeach Trump. What's the easiest path? Assume that his power and reputation will fade in 2 weeks, so it's not worth it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of the virus, the only number I'd be looking at is the Israeli on: what's happening with their CV19 cases? At 5% of people vaccinated, what does that do to case numbers? What about at 10%? 15% Etc. (Bear in mind that it takes about 10 days before the virus starts reducing CV19 incidence meaningfully: so, the numbers for Israel probably reflect barely - if any - impact from the vaccine.)

    But over the next two weeks, we may see the start of a sustained decline in CV19 cases. If we do, that is really excellent news for the world. (Albeit, we'll probably need to see Moderna and BioNTech tweak their mRNA vaccines for SA Variant Covid.)

    Now, a question for our medical folk: given how easy it is to adjust mRNA vaccines, do we think that getting a SA-adjusted-CV19-vaccine through trials will take so long?

    Given the strategies, I think you'll first see any effect in hospitalisations (or the hospitalisations per case a week earlier).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    68 arrests in the US so far, according to BBC. Wonder what the charges will be. IMHO they should throw the book at them, at least for initial public consumption. Can always be reduced later.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited January 2021

    Scott_xP said:
    Spread on senate impeachment numbers maybe 63-65? Feels pretty close, would think about 75 if McConnell is in, 60ish if he is out?
    This is a real quandary for the entire American system. Do you send what is, by all accounts, a very necessary message, after a very worrying day, or seek to avoid any further and dangerous polarisation ?
  • isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Personally I don't see the fascination with putting down hecklers.

    I'd rather just listen to the funny comedian tell jokes.

    Billy Conolly tells of a prolonged bout with someone yelling from the audience. Turns out the guy had slipped and hurt himself and was screaming in agony for 20 minutes
    I saw Billy Connolly at Durham around 1980. It was February, the weather was snowy/icy/fatally slippy (as it was for about five months of the year in Durham). Mr. C had travelled from Cumbria to get there and had the most shitty of days in doing so. He was not in a good mood. It wasn't hidden. Still, somebody just had to poke the rattlesnake with a stick.

    He went on the most foul-mouthed rant at this heckler you can imagine. On and on and on.

    And on.

    It seemed to be what he needed to regain his equilibrium. After that, he was back on form.

    We had a great time. Apart from the heckler, who looked like the Bolton sigil.
    I don't know why anyone does it.

    They always come off worse.
    One of my mates got targeted by Jim Davidson at his panto thing and shouted back “why don’t you go and bash your missus up you hard bastard” which I thought was pretty good
    A good heckle I can remember is this one:
    A man gets up from the audience during an act for a "call of nature".
    Comedian: "Don't forget to shake it afterwards".
    Man: "I just thought I would go now before the comedian came on".
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Gaussian said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK deaths 1,162 over past 24 hrs

    Due to the lag from cases, it will be a long dark January
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of the virus, the only number I'd be looking at is the Israeli on: what's happening with their CV19 cases? At 5% of people vaccinated, what does that do to case numbers? What about at 10%? 15% Etc. (Bear in mind that it takes about 10 days before the virus starts reducing CV19 incidence meaningfully: so, the numbers for Israel probably reflect barely - if any - impact from the vaccine.)

    But over the next two weeks, we may see the start of a sustained decline in CV19 cases. If we do, that is really excellent news for the world. (Albeit, we'll probably need to see Moderna and BioNTech tweak their mRNA vaccines for SA Variant Covid.)

    Impossible to tell apart the effect of the vaccines from the effect of whatever restrictions they have in place and how well people adhere to them though, at least at short timeframes.
    Don't agree. If they know who's been vaccinated and who hasn't, then splitting case data into the two cohorts should reveal some pretty major divergences in short order.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Schools are safe in specifics, but they are at risk overall.

    Who gives him his briefing notes?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    1.62m doses delivered so says the brigadier. At 1.29m on Sunday that's 0.33m from Monday to Wednesday, 110k per day since the start of the AZ jabs. Not bad but we need to be doing more than double that for Thursday to Sunday and to carry that momentum through to next week.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    @isam

    These "mates" are all you, right?

    You're just being self-deprecating, pretending it's someone else coming up with the gems.

    No need to answer. Eye know.

    Neither were me, no! Couple of funny f*ckers but I don’t think they’d last long on here
    I suppose they're a bit "trad" and would possibly need rebuking from time to time if they came on here.
    If they knew how much of a politics nerd I was I doubt they’d still want to be my mates. I’m prob the most left wing of them
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    68 arrests in the US so far, according to BBC. Wonder what the charges will be. IMHO they should throw the book at them, at least for initial public consumption. Can always be reduced later.

    Fifty thousand bucks apiece for the damage, for starters.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Omnium said:

    Supporting Trump in one matter doesn't mean that you have to support him in every matter.

    The deeply windy seem to want to establish any alignment with Trump, ever, as a thought crime.

    Trump was always going to be a ghastly president in most ways. The only surprise is that he actually managed to be good in some ways. At the time of his inauguration we were betting on just weeks of survival.

    The American right is shattered and broken. Civil war awaits. The Georgia run offs showed they won't be winning again anytime soon.

    The Democrats can do what they want. Its just a question of when the world works out it isn;t really a two party state any more, in the sense it used to be.
    The problem for the Democrats is that they are not really unified either. What united the AOCs and the Conor Lambs was getting rid of Trump.

    I think this piece in The Atlantic is correct - having won control of the Senate be a classic case of be careful what you wish for:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/problem-50-50-senate/617565/
This discussion has been closed.