Cases aren't going to fall. Lockdown will slow the catastrophe down but, as we appreciate from all the banging on about R that we've heard over the last ten months, so long as R>1 they'll keep going up and up and up relentlessly.
The hospital system in London appears to be a week or two from collapse and the Plague is radiating steadily outwards from the South-Eastern corner of the country. Here in North Herts we've now got it as bad as South Wales. Remote and rural North Norfolk is almost as bad as us. The thing is totally out of control and it's only a matter of time before it's ripping through the whole country and we have the very sick (not just Covid ventilator candidates, but RTA's, cardiac and stroke cases, and all the others) wheeled out into tents in hospital car parks, doped to the eyeballs and left to die quietly, whilst the medics try to save the less seriously ill. The vaccination programme will come soon enough for a lot of the very old and healthcare workers, but it's going to be far too slow to spare the other victims.
We'll be thigh-deep in corpses by Easter, the product of a tsunami of Covid cases and the resultant saturation of healthcare, where there are so many patients already that anyone else who turns up can't be treated, or somebody already being cared for has to be thrown out to make room. I'm not sure whether the Plague will end up killing quite as many people as the Second World War, but it could be a close run thing.
As I've been saying for months, never assume the nightmare can't get any worse. Because it can, and it probably will.
You're not exactly Professor Pangloss, are you Ms Black_Rook?
You are right that the nightmare is going to get worse in the immediate future, but it should then start getting better quite quickly, for two reasons. Firstly the lockdown and the closure of schools is going to slow down the spread, and secondly we have already vaccinated 1.3 million of (mostly) the most vulnerable, with many more due to be vaccinated in the next couple of weeks. Those two factors should begin to slow down the hospitalisations, and subsequently the deaths, to a marked degree from around four weeks' time. By Easter the death rate should be right down since the most at-risk groups will have been vaccinated.
Except that everyone's underestimating the ability of the Kent Plague to create havoc and overestimating the ability of the state to deliver all these vaccinations. There's something especially tragic and poignant about all the faith being placed in the Government that brought you Test and Trace to pull off the biggest and most rapid mass vaccination programme in history, a marked reluctance to acknowledge how many things all have to go right at the same time to make it happen (it looks like glass vials are going to be to 2021 what PPE was to 2020 for starters,) and above all nobody wants to think about how dire the situation already is in the hospitals and how much worse it must inevitably become if, as seems likely, lockdown can no longer adequately suppress the virus.
Back last March I said to the other Mr Rook (I'm not a Ms BTW, I'm a gay) that 2020 would be a good year if we and the immediate family all got through it without any of us dying. 2021 feels more perilous than before, and it's going to be like that until we've all had the jab (assuming that the ultimate disaster of a vaccine-resistant strain doesn't rock up and completely ruin everything.) Until then, it's going to be a dark, anxious and miserable slog.
Referred to earlier. Thanks for posting. She was CROSS!
What is worrying about that is the Dr H was filmed, made her ;point, and she's been cut from that published.
Hearing the horror stories in the US about the roll out programme (distribution seems to be working well, delivery jabs not so well), from this distance, it appears the UK is doing well. And the US is doing well at 3.5m compared to Germany, who is doing well compared to France, who point to the Netherlands as doing worse ...
Yes, we should be agitating for vaccination to be as rapid, effective and prioritized as possible, but in as complex a process as vaccinating the entire population, there will be SNAFUs along the way. Little point locking ourselves into an unnecessarily negative doom spiral.
Spoke to someone in Switzerland today. They are having a shocker. He was very envious of the UK. Switzerland doesn't seem to show up on any of the indicators/graphs. He seemed to think around 100,000 which, from memory, isn't too bad.
I do love these 'how it started...how its going' memes.
How does he not realise he may do serious US prison time? So casual about it all.
These idiots think consequences are for other people. I do hope they book get thrown at them. I imaging the FBI are fairly busy lifting these goons right now.
Cases aren't going to fall. Lockdown will slow the catastrophe down but, as we appreciate from all the banging on about R that we've heard over the last ten months, so long as R>1 they'll keep going up and up and up relentlessly.
The hospital system in London appears to be a week or two from collapse and the Plague is radiating steadily outwards from the South-Eastern corner of the country. Here in North Herts we've now got it as bad as South Wales. Remote and rural North Norfolk is almost as bad as us. The thing is totally out of control and it's only a matter of time before it's ripping through the whole country and we have the very sick (not just Covid ventilator candidates, but RTA's, cardiac and stroke cases, and all the others) wheeled out into tents in hospital car parks, doped to the eyeballs and left to die quietly, whilst the medics try to save the less seriously ill. The vaccination programme will come soon enough for a lot of the very old and healthcare workers, but it's going to be far too slow to spare the other victims.
We'll be thigh-deep in corpses by Easter, the product of a tsunami of Covid cases and the resultant saturation of healthcare, where there are so many patients already that anyone else who turns up can't be treated, or somebody already being cared for has to be thrown out to make room. I'm not sure whether the Plague will end up killing quite as many people as the Second World War, but it could be a close run thing.
As I've been saying for months, never assume the nightmare can't get any worse. Because it can, and it probably will.
You're not exactly Professor Pangloss, are you Ms Black_Rook?
You are right that the nightmare is going to get worse in the immediate future, but it should then start getting better quite quickly, for two reasons. Firstly the lockdown and the closure of schools is going to slow down the spread, and secondly we have already vaccinated 1.3 million of (mostly) the most vulnerable, with many more due to be vaccinated in the next couple of weeks. Those two factors should begin to slow down the hospitalisations, and subsequently the deaths, to a marked degree from around four weeks' time. By Easter the death rate should be right down since the most at-risk groups will have been vaccinated.
Except that everyone's underestimating the ability of the Kent Plague to create havoc and overestimating the ability of the state to deliver all these vaccinations. There's something especially tragic and poignant about all the faith being placed in the Government that brought you Test and Trace to pull off the biggest and most rapid mass vaccination programme in history, a marked reluctance to acknowledge how many things all have to go right at the same time to make it happen (it looks like glass vials are going to be to 2021 what PPE was to 2020 for starters,) and above all nobody wants to think about how dire the situation already is in the hospitals and how much worse it must inevitably become if, as seems likely, lockdown can no longer adequately suppress the virus.
Back last March I said to the other Mr Rook (I'm not a Ms BTW, I'm a gay) that 2020 would be a good year if we and the immediate family all got through it without any of us dying. 2021 feels more perilous than before, and it's going to be like that until we've all had the jab (assuming that the ultimate disaster of a vaccine-resistant strain doesn't rock up and completely ruin everything.) Until then, it's going to be a dark, anxious and miserable slog.
I'm not aware the govt has ever done Test & Trace. It has every year administered vaccinations to millions of people.
I do love these 'how it started...how its going' memes.
How does he not realise he may do serious US prison time? So casual about it all.
What I don’t get is how somebody that stupid could ever be a lawyer.
Do they not teach them that when committing a crime you *don’t* describe your part of it in front of (a) witnesses (b) a running camera (c) on social media never mind (d) all the lot together?
Much as being prevented from holding office again would be appropriate, as the days unfold I find it hard to think enough people will want to impeach Trump. What's the easiest path? Assume that his power and reputation will fade in 2 weeks, so it's not worth it.
Preventing Trump from running for Pres in 2024 must hold a terrible fascination for a variety of Senators.
Like Cruz knows he can't win if Trump runs but he also can't win if he I peaches Trump.
Or Can He.!?!
Cruz won't vote to impeach Trump and neither will Hawley. Both realise it would end their hopes of getting the Trump base on board. They also know there is a route for an anti-Pence candidate, if Pence decides to stand.
For both, it makes sense (from the GOP nomination) to link themselves with Trump. If he doesn't run in 2024, they get their stab then. If he does run, they are well positioned (and both young enough) to run in 2028
I now see the vaulting ambition of big numbers at hand in the vaccination roll out. 15 million in 40 days if we assume the annual flu vaccination programme by the end of February (roughly).
There's nothing wrong with offering hope at a time of crisis - indeed, most Governments and Prime Ministers do it every so often. If you can't offer hope, people give up and the first thing on which they give up is their leaders.
2 million per week but we are already seeing the ominous signs of excuses - "it's all about vaccine supply". Well, quite.
The other aspect is the notion we may need regular booster vaccinations - Hancock was talking about 6 months so twice a year we (or a fair proportion of us) will need to get vaccinated (or is it inoculated - I was pulled up by @Ishmael_Z the other night and as long as we aren't injecting the virus itself into our bodies, it is vaccination).
That's going to be a significant logistical challenge until a vaccine is produced which provides longer protection. It sounds as though regular vaccinations will become a significant part of life - perhaps we need to re-purpose some buildings to act as temporary clinics not just for vaccination but for other minor health issues. Perhaps we can use some of that empty retail space.
Hancock is guessing. A couple of studies published this week showed longer protection than that for those who'd been infected - and vaccination probably provides superior priming of the immune response than infection.
I do love these 'how it started...how its going' memes.
How does he not realise he may do serious US prison time? So casual about it all.
What I don’t get is how somebody that stupid could ever be a lawyer.
Do they not teach them that when committing a crime you *don’t* describe your part of it in front of (a) witnesses (b) a running camera (c) on social media never mind (d) all the lot together?
I mean, I would have thought that was basic.
He should have watched this again before he set off.
Conversation between client and attorney, somewhere in the US, 2021:
Client: ‘Did you file any case on behalf of Donald Trump?’
Attorney: ‘Yes.’
Client: ‘You’re fired.’
Would it not go more like this
Client: ‘Did you file any case on behalf of Donald Trump?’
Attorney: ‘No that is FAKE NEWS. The video you saw of me in court testifying was doctored. The transcripts were falsified by antifa with the help of the Chinese communists. Stop listening to the libtard media!’
Supporting Trump in one matter doesn't mean that you have to support him in every matter.
The deeply windy seem to want to establish any alignment with Trump, ever, as a thought crime.
Trump was always going to be a ghastly president in most ways. The only surprise is that he actually managed to be good in some ways. At the time of his inauguration we were betting on just weeks of survival.
The American right is shattered and broken. Civil war awaits. The Georgia run offs showed they won't be winning again anytime soon.
The Democrats can do what they want. Its just a question of when the world works out it isn;t really a two party state any more, in the sense it used to be.
The problem for the Democrats is that they are not really unified either. What united the AOCs and the Conor Lambs was getting rid of Trump.
I think this piece in The Atlantic is correct - having won control of the Senate be a classic case of be careful what you wish for:
Well timed. "Contrarian" is in dire need of a pep talk.
I've tried but I sense he's more likely to listen to a fellow extreme conservative.
I suspect your definite of extreme is slightly different from mine
But you are quite an extreme conservative. Of course you are. I don't mean in the "Patriot Games: Storming DC!" sense, but in your view of the world. You're well to the right of a typical humdrum Tory. No reason not to own that position. It's not a crime.
Mmmm, not sure that is the case and I will tell you why briefly. My view on the world - certainly for the US and Western Europe - is that the single biggest issue we have is that a large proportion of society has fallen behind and that needs to be urgently redressed with significant measures that will have to be driven by the Government. I believe that the idea of allowing businesses to do what they want is wrong, and I also believe the pit closures of the 1980s were wrong and done in a catastrophic way.
I don't think those would really be considered ideas well to the right of the Tory party.
Referred to earlier. Thanks for posting. She was CROSS!
What is worrying about that is the Dr H was filmed, made her ;point, and she's been cut from that published.
Hearing the horror stories in the US about the roll out programme (distribution seems to be working well, delivery jabs not so well), from this distance, it appears the UK is doing well. And the US is doing well at 3.5m compared to Germany, who is doing well compared to France, who point to the Netherlands as doing worse ...
Yes, we should be agitating for vaccination to be as rapid, effective and prioritized as possible, but in as complex a process as vaccinating the entire population, there will be SNAFUs along the way. Little point locking ourselves into an unnecessarily negative doom spiral.
You're just being self-deprecating, pretending it's someone else coming up with the gems.
No need to answer. Eye know.
Neither were me, no! Couple of funny f*ckers but I don’t think they’d last long on here
I suppose they're a bit "trad" and would possibly need rebuking from time to time if they came on here.
If they knew how much of a politics nerd I was I doubt they’d still want to be my mates. I’m prob the most left wing of them
You should be careful not to let compartmentalization (good) become double life (bad).
You're the most left wing of your mates? Bloody two shoes! That's a tough crowd.
Small point, almost didn't want to mention it, thought you'd want to know.
Whatever keyboard you are using is set to English (US). Hence some shockers "compartmentalization" being the latest one.
See what you can do to sort this and we'll say nothing more about it.
This is a tailored offering I bring rather than a consequence of laziness. I like the American zee but not how they drop the yews. It actually takes effort to achieve the desired UK/US mix. So I am gratified you've noticed even though as an ultra-trad you're not keen.
I do love these 'how it started...how its going' memes.
How does he not realise he may do serious US prison time? So casual about it all.
What I don’t get is how somebody that stupid could ever be a lawyer.
Do they not teach them that when committing a crime you *don’t* describe your part of it in front of (a) witnesses (b) a running camera (c) on social media never mind (d) all the lot together?
I mean, I would have thought that was basic.
He should have watched this again before he set off.
At the end of that video the copper describes how he tricks younger offenders into writing confessions by making them think they are writing apology letters. And they fall for it.
But this is way, way dumber. Even dumber than the criminal who boasted he was really clever because he told the office which flea market he’d fenced his stolen goods through.
52,618 cases. Increasingly looking like the rise has been stopped.
I had a Christmas theory - combination of doom mongering, tightening restrictions in some areas, and closure of work/school etc would outweigh limited Christmas mixing.
My theory is that closing schools will be the biggest reason for the rise stopping.
I don't think the rise has stopped. What has happened is the Christmas effect has unwound.
If you look at the graph below, and use the huge peak on 29th to "fill in" the "hole" around Christmas, we are still on an upward trend.
"Oh We've survived it, The Great War, From 1914 to 1917."
If the rise in cases has been stopped, the situation is only awful. If cases continue to rise further despite the lockdown, it's catastrophic. A drop in cases next week would be good to see, especially as the data will be more directly comparable with this week.
It is very hard to tell at this point - lockdowns take a while to kick in.
I would strongly doubt we will get to a fall next week - we might hope for a levelling off.
Cases aren't going to fall. Lockdown will slow the catastrophe down but, as we appreciate from all the banging on about R that we've heard over the last ten months, so long as R>1 they'll keep going up and up and up relentlessly.
The hospital system in London appears to be a week or two from collapse and the Plague is radiating steadily outwards from the South-Eastern corner of the country. Here in North Herts we've now got it as bad as South Wales. Remote and rural North Norfolk is almost as bad as us. The thing is totally out of control and it's only a matter of time before it's ripping through the whole country and we have the very sick (not just Covid ventilator candidates, but RTA's, cardiac and stroke cases, and all the others) wheeled out into tents in hospital car parks, doped to the eyeballs and left to die quietly, whilst the medics try to save the less seriously ill. The vaccination programme will come soon enough for a lot of the very old and healthcare workers, but it's going to be far too slow to spare the other victims.
We'll be thigh-deep in corpses by Easter, the product of a tsunami of Covid cases and the resultant saturation of healthcare, where there are so many patients already that anyone else who turns up can't be treated, or somebody already being cared for has to be thrown out to make room. I'm not sure whether the Plague will end up killing quite as many people as the Second World War, but it could be a close run thing.
As I've been saying for months, never assume the nightmare can't get any worse. Because it can, and it probably will.
Well we have already exceeded the number of UK civilian deaths in WW2 (67,100 according to wiki) but I sincerely hope we don't overtake the total number of dead, including military, which is 449,700.
.
I've not had a bomb dropped on me. This whole "Blitz" things is clearly made up.
I do love these 'how it started...how its going' memes.
How does he not realise he may do serious US prison time? So casual about it all.
These idiots think consequences are for other people. I do hope they book get thrown at them. I imaging the FBI are fairly busy lifting these goons right now.
That's privilege: when experience has failed to teach you that some actions might have severe consequences for you.
On the vaccination side in particular, I think you are being over-pessimistic. The government is shambolic in many ways, but on this particular issue the delivery is happening already and there's no doubt it is going to ramp up.
You're just being self-deprecating, pretending it's someone else coming up with the gems.
No need to answer. Eye know.
Neither were me, no! Couple of funny f*ckers but I don’t think they’d last long on here
I suppose they're a bit "trad" and would possibly need rebuking from time to time if they came on here.
If they knew how much of a politics nerd I was I doubt they’d still want to be my mates. I’m prob the most left wing of them
You should be careful not to let compartmentalization (good) become double life (bad).
You're the most left wing of your mates? Bloody two shoes! That's a tough crowd.
Small point, almost didn't want to mention it, thought you'd want to know.
Whatever keyboard you are using is set to English (US). Hence some shockers "compartmentalization" being the latest one.
See what you can do to sort this and we'll say nothing more about it.
This is a tailored offering I bring rather than a consequence of laziness. I like the American zee but not how they drop the yews. It actually takes effort to achieve the desired UK/US mix. So I am gratified you've noticed even though as an ultra-trad you're not keen.
Much as being prevented from holding office again would be appropriate, as the days unfold I find it hard to think enough people will want to impeach Trump. What's the easiest path? Assume that his power and reputation will fade in 2 weeks, so it's not worth it.
There is a difference for the Republicans in saying you want to get rid of Trump and getting him actively impeached to bar him from running for office again. Many Republican Senators know entirely well that would mean they would face the ire of the Trump supporting base in their states. If you look at the Republican Senators who are probably the most consistently "independent" - Romney, Collins and Murkowski - they each have the luxury of not been dependent on a constituency of Trump supporters.
There is a much wider issue namely that impeaching Trump and barring him from office would be a spectacularly bad idea but that's for a much longer post and I need to feed the dogs.
Much as being prevented from holding office again would be appropriate, as the days unfold I find it hard to think enough people will want to impeach Trump. What's the easiest path? Assume that his power and reputation will fade in 2 weeks, so it's not worth it.
Preventing Trump from running for Pres in 2024 must hold a terrible fascination for a variety of Senators.
Like Cruz knows he can't win if Trump runs but he also can't win if he I peaches Trump.
Or Can He.!?!
Cruz won't vote to impeach Trump and neither will Hawley. Both realise it would end their hopes of getting the Trump base on board. They also know there is a route for an anti-Pence candidate, if Pence decides to stand.
For both, it makes sense (from the GOP nomination) to link themselves with Trump. If he doesn't run in 2024, they get their stab then. If he does run, they are well positioned (and both young enough) to run in 2028
But Cruz would love it if Trump was impeached.
Just so long as he doesn't have to vote for it.
Yes, I think you're right there. Kills two birds with one stone. Same with Hawley (although I think the latter needs to hook himself to Trump first)
Much as being prevented from holding office again would be appropriate, as the days unfold I find it hard to think enough people will want to impeach Trump. What's the easiest path? Assume that his power and reputation will fade in 2 weeks, so it's not worth it.
There is a difference for the Republicans in saying you want to get rid of Trump and getting him actively impeached to bar him from running for office again. Many Republican Senators know entirely well that would mean they would face the ire of the Trump supporting base in their states. If you look at the Republican Senators who are probably the most consistently "independent" - Romney, Collins and Murkowski - they each have the luxury of not been dependent on a constituency of Trump supporters.
There is a much wider issue namely that impeaching Trump and barring him from office would be a spectacularly bad idea but that's for a much longer post and I need to feed the dogs.
No, it would be catastrophic for the future of the US. It is a spectacularly bad idea.
In any event, I suspect now he will head off into the sunset and won't contest 2024.
Even yesterday evening you and Casino were on here acting as Trump apologists.
Your views on what might be a specactularly bad or good idea is a quite useful rule of thumb, since I find myself invariably coming to the opposite conclusion to you regarding Trump.
You're just being self-deprecating, pretending it's someone else coming up with the gems.
No need to answer. Eye know.
Neither were me, no! Couple of funny f*ckers but I don’t think they’d last long on here
I suppose they're a bit "trad" and would possibly need rebuking from time to time if they came on here.
If they knew how much of a politics nerd I was I doubt they’d still want to be my mates. I’m prob the most left wing of them
You should be careful not to let compartmentalization (good) become double life (bad).
You're the most left wing of your mates? Bloody two shoes! That's a tough crowd.
Small point, almost didn't want to mention it, thought you'd want to know.
Whatever keyboard you are using is set to English (US). Hence some shockers "compartmentalization" being the latest one.
See what you can do to sort this and we'll say nothing more about it.
This is a tailored offering I bring rather than a consequence of laziness. I like the American zee but not how they drop the yews. It actually takes effort to achieve the desired UK/US mix. So I am gratified you've noticed even though as an ultra-trad you're not keen.
Wow that was a shocker.
I have given up on the z vs s issue, and comfort myself in knowing the introduction of the s version into English English was just a Victorian affectation after the French.
How have trumps supports swallowed this bilge hook line and sinker?
No longer financially sensible to use UK Amazon from Spain with mega cost loading, 20% at a guess, now using Amazon Germany where costs have remained flat.
Some finger in the air stuff from a BBC article about whether COVID would be suppressed by lockdown.
Claimed that R got to 0.6 after lockdown 1, so 50% higher would be 0.9 now. I don't remember R getting that low, and we're in a more indoorsy season, so that's like for like could well be above 1.0.
But, somewhere between 15-20% will have had it now, compared with about 7% after lockdown 1, so that will take at least 0.1 off.
Vaccination, I reckon, should take R down more or less with the number vaccinated whoever you prioritise (the less/more spready a segment of the population, the less/more will have had it already, so more/less wasted vaccine on those with some immunity, plus the grim fact that many elderly who have had COVID no longer remain on the vaccination list). So, targetting death and hospitalisation directly is exactly the right thing to do. Once we get on a downwards trend that really should accelerate with vaccination.
Remember Boris will be stood next to a man wearing camouflage gear with his sleeves rolled up tonight. Labour will struggle to beat that.
I am struggling to understand what Labour's vaccination campaign is? Why is a Labour campaign needed when there is a national one? Genuine question.
The Labour vaccination campaign boils down to this: WHO is the more prime ministerial, and better fit to lead the country, Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer?
Remember Boris will be stood next to a man wearing camouflage gear with his sleeves rolled up tonight. Labour will struggle to beat that.
I am struggling to understand what Labour's vaccination campaign is? Why is a Labour campaign needed when there is a national one? Genuine question.
The Labour vaccination campaign boils down to this: WHO is the more prime ministerial, and better fit to lead the country, Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer?
My bet is on Door #2.
So it is not a vaccination campaign, but a political campaign.
Forgive me, I’m a bit emotional. Just come back from my Grandma’s funeral. Lockdown funerals are shit, truncated affairs. I’ve broken my dry January to have a large Laphroaig, I think that’s justified.
I’ve just watched the Boris press conference thingy with the NHS bod and the Army guy. You know, we all bitch and moan here about politics and fucking Brexit ad infinitum, ad nauseum, and everyone’s got dissenting opinions on fucking everything and we all piss each other off. But watching the NHS and Army guys standing there outlining their plans, which may yet all go tits up but let’s hope not, it struck me how lucky I am, we are, to live in this country.
Yes mistakes have been made throughout this pandemic. Hard decisions delayed. Stupid decisions taken too quickly. We have high death figures, hopefully there will be some reckoning there in the future. Why the borders were never closed is beyond me. A few months ago I thought we should let the virus rip - what an idiot I am.
But all that taken into account, if this vaccination scheme rolls out as outlined today, then that will be a fantastic achievement, to have the capacity and knowledge to do something so unprecedented. What a country. Let’s hope it works.
Supporting Trump in one matter doesn't mean that you have to support him in every matter.
The deeply windy seem to want to establish any alignment with Trump, ever, as a thought crime.
Trump was always going to be a ghastly president in most ways. The only surprise is that he actually managed to be good in some ways. At the time of his inauguration we were betting on just weeks of survival.
What was the one matter on which you supported him?
I think you mis-remember his inauguration, couldn't move on here for Trump will pivot, unremarkable centrist presidency, will be good friend to Brexit UK, respect the office takes.
I'm not sure I told you I did.
There's little point in conversing with you, so I won't.
'Supporting Trump in one matter doesn't mean that you have to support him in every matter.'
You're just being self-deprecating, pretending it's someone else coming up with the gems.
No need to answer. Eye know.
Neither were me, no! Couple of funny f*ckers but I don’t think they’d last long on here
I suppose they're a bit "trad" and would possibly need rebuking from time to time if they came on here.
If they knew how much of a politics nerd I was I doubt they’d still want to be my mates. I’m prob the most left wing of them
You should be careful not to let compartmentalization (good) become double life (bad).
You're the most left wing of your mates? Bloody two shoes! That's a tough crowd.
Small point, almost didn't want to mention it, thought you'd want to know.
Whatever keyboard you are using is set to English (US). Hence some shockers "compartmentalization" being the latest one.
See what you can do to sort this and we'll say nothing more about it.
This is a tailored offering I bring rather than a consequence of laziness. I like the American zee but not how they drop the yews. It actually takes effort to achieve the desired UK/US mix. So I am gratified you've noticed even though as an ultra-trad you're not keen.
Wait, what? -ize is the ultra-trad suffix. -ise is historically a Francophone innovation.
Much as being prevented from holding office again would be appropriate, as the days unfold I find it hard to think enough people will want to impeach Trump. What's the easiest path? Assume that his power and reputation will fade in 2 weeks, so it's not worth it.
There is a difference for the Republicans in saying you want to get rid of Trump and getting him actively impeached to bar him from running for office again. Many Republican Senators know entirely well that would mean they would face the ire of the Trump supporting base in their states. If you look at the Republican Senators who are probably the most consistently "independent" - Romney, Collins and Murkowski - they each have the luxury of not been dependent on a constituency of Trump supporters.
There is a much wider issue namely that impeaching Trump and barring him from office would be a spectacularly bad idea but that's for a much longer post and I need to feed the dogs.
No, it would be catastrophic for the future of the US. It is a spectacularly bad idea.
You already said that. Repeating it when I disagree isn't the most convincing of arguments.
No, you're right it doesn't so here, in a nutshell, is why I think it's a bad idea:
1. What would you impeach him for exactly? We have already had what, is in effect, two show trials of impeachment over alleged Russian collusion and its follow on issues. So, what are you going to accuse him of this time? Subverting democracy? Ok, why - because he told his protestors to gather in Washington DC on Jan 6th and walk down Penn Avenue? Because he questioned the election result maybe and undermined faith in the electoral process? Ok, you could make a fairly similar argument against Al Gore in 2000 and for four years, the Democrats have been saying he is an illegitimate President who was controlled by Putin, so why don't we impeach Pelosi while we are at it? It feeds into a narrative of double standards, that you indict Trump for his actions but are quite happy to let other politicians get away scot-free with theirs because they are on your side / play the game.
2. It would kick-start a vicious cycle. If you think the Republican base would allow Trump to be pushed out of public life and not seek retribution at some point, then you have another thing coming. There are plenty of Republicans - and not all Trumpsters - who think that, for years and pre-dating Trump, the Republican leadership have been too soft in allowing the Democrats to ride roughshod over them when it comes to the electoral process. If you impeach Trump, and the Republicans win Congress in 2022 (which is entirely possible), there will be a strong demand from the base to launch impeachment proceedings against Biden launched, most likely over the Hunter Biden issue (the one where people said it was Russian-driven but where he is actually being investigated). Which then kicks off another cycle.
3. Trump is a symptom, not a driver, of the anger felt by many in the States and, by prosecuting him, you will pour fuel on the fire. Trump did not create the anger that is there, he harnessed it for his own ends. To many in the American population, when they look at Trump being attacked, they consider themselves under attack. And, to a large degree, they are right. The reality of Trump is it is not his actions that generate disdain - if you took his record, and said that Mitt Romney had been the author of his actions, many would suggest he did good things) - but the person. The reason why the political class don't like Trump is he is not one of them and doesn't play their game. All you will do by impeachment is, linking back to point 1, persuade many Americans that their voice doesn't count. There have already been suggestions a good number of GOP voters in Georgia didn't vote in the Senate race because they felt their vote didn't count - do you think that is a good thing? Do you think it's great that people believe their vote doesn't count, just because it helps your side win? What then do those people do afterwards?
Forgive me, I’m a bit emotional. Just come back from my Grandma’s funeral. Lockdown funerals are shit, truncated affairs. I’ve broken my dry January to have a large Laphroaig, I think that’s justified.
I’ve just watched the Boris press conference thingy with the NHS bod and the Army guy. You know, we all bitch and moan here about politics and fucking Brexit ad infinitum, ad nauseum, and everyone’s got dissenting opinions on fucking everything and we all piss each other off. But watching the NHS and Army guys standing there outlining their plans, which may yet all go tits up but let’s hope not, it struck me how lucky I am, we are, to live in this country.
Yes mistakes have been made throughout this pandemic. Hard decisions delayed. Stupid decisions taken too quickly. We have high death figures, hopefully there will be some reckoning there in the future. Why the borders were never closed is beyond me. A few months ago I thought we should let the virus rip - what an idiot I am.
But all that taken into account, if this vaccination scheme rolls out as outlined today, then that will be a fantastic achievement, to have the capacity and knowledge to do something so unprecedented. What a country. Let’s hope it works.
I'm sorry to hear about that, deepest condolences.
Much as being prevented from holding office again would be appropriate, as the days unfold I find it hard to think enough people will want to impeach Trump. What's the easiest path? Assume that his power and reputation will fade in 2 weeks, so it's not worth it.
There is a difference for the Republicans in saying you want to get rid of Trump and getting him actively impeached to bar him from running for office again. Many Republican Senators know entirely well that would mean they would face the ire of the Trump supporting base in their states. If you look at the Republican Senators who are probably the most consistently "independent" - Romney, Collins and Murkowski - they each have the luxury of not been dependent on a constituency of Trump supporters.
There is a much wider issue namely that impeaching Trump and barring him from office would be a spectacularly bad idea but that's for a much longer post and I need to feed the dogs.
No, it would be catastrophic for the future of the US. It is a spectacularly bad idea.
In any event, I suspect now he will head off into the sunset and won't contest 2024.
Even yesterday evening you and Casino were on here acting as Trump apologists.
Your views on what might be a specactularly bad or good idea is a quite useful rule of thumb, since I find myself invariably coming to the opposite conclusion to you regarding Trump.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion Wufrun. I seem to remember you left the Labour party because you felt you were driven out by the Corbynistas so I'm quite surprised to hear you use the world "apologists" which is the language I would expect from an extremist. Still, it says something about you I suppose.
You're just being self-deprecating, pretending it's someone else coming up with the gems.
No need to answer. Eye know.
Neither were me, no! Couple of funny f*ckers but I don’t think they’d last long on here
I suppose they're a bit "trad" and would possibly need rebuking from time to time if they came on here.
If they knew how much of a politics nerd I was I doubt they’d still want to be my mates. I’m prob the most left wing of them
You should be careful not to let compartmentalization (good) become double life (bad).
You're the most left wing of your mates? Bloody two shoes! That's a tough crowd.
Small point, almost didn't want to mention it, thought you'd want to know.
Whatever keyboard you are using is set to English (US). Hence some shockers "compartmentalization" being the latest one.
See what you can do to sort this and we'll say nothing more about it.
This is a tailored offering I bring rather than a consequence of laziness. I like the American zee but not how they drop the yews. It actually takes effort to achieve the desired UK/US mix. So I am gratified you've noticed even though as an ultra-trad you're not keen.
Wait, what? -ize is the ultra-trad suffix. -ise is historically a Francophone innovation.
Comments
Back last March I said to the other Mr Rook (I'm not a Ms BTW, I'm a gay) that 2020 would be a good year if we and the immediate family all got through it without any of us dying. 2021 feels more perilous than before, and it's going to be like that until we've all had the jab (assuming that the ultimate disaster of a vaccine-resistant strain doesn't rock up and completely ruin everything.) Until then, it's going to be a dark, anxious and miserable slog.
Do they not teach them that when committing a crime you *don’t* describe your part of it in front of (a) witnesses (b) a running camera (c) on social media never mind (d) all the lot together?
I mean, I would have thought that was basic.
Just so long as he doesn't have to vote for it.
A couple of studies published this week showed longer protection than that for those who'd been infected - and vaccination probably provides superior priming of the immune response than infection.
I recommend reading this thread, which is rather more optimistic than Hancock.
https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1346442000472580098
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-7o9xYp7eE
Client: ‘Did you file any case on behalf of Donald Trump?’
Attorney: ‘No that is FAKE NEWS. The video you saw of me in court testifying was doctored. The transcripts were falsified by antifa with the help of the Chinese communists. Stop listening to the libtard media!’
Client: ‘You’re fired.’
I don't think those would really be considered ideas well to the right of the Tory party.
Protestors have just invaded this thread!
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=latest®ion=World
hasn't been updated with the data released today (vaccinations as of Sunday).
When it does, we will be on 1.94% of the population vaccinated. Which is more than in the US.
But this is way, way dumber. Even dumber than the criminal who boasted he was really clever because he told the office which flea market he’d fenced his stolen goods through.
He's worth a hundred AOC's in my book.
earless prediction: one day in not-too-distant future Conor Lamb will be US Senator from Pennsylvania.
Seems strange given we are at least at 1.7m
Anyone know why??
On the vaccination side in particular, I think you are being over-pessimistic. The government is shambolic in many ways, but on this particular issue the delivery is happening already and there's no doubt it is going to ramp up.
Repeating it when I disagree isn't the most convincing of arguments.
Your views on what might be a specactularly bad or good idea is a quite useful rule of thumb, since I find myself invariably coming to the opposite conclusion to you regarding Trump.
How have trumps supports swallowed this bilge hook line and sinker?
No longer financially sensible to use UK Amazon from Spain with mega cost loading, 20% at a guess, now using Amazon Germany where costs have remained flat.
Claimed that R got to 0.6 after lockdown 1, so 50% higher would be 0.9 now. I don't remember R getting that low, and we're in a more indoorsy season, so that's like for like could well be above 1.0.
But, somewhere between 15-20% will have had it now, compared with about 7% after lockdown 1, so that will take at least 0.1 off.
Vaccination, I reckon, should take R down more or less with the number vaccinated whoever you prioritise (the less/more spready a segment of the population, the less/more will have had it already, so more/less wasted vaccine on those with some immunity, plus the grim fact that many elderly who have had COVID no longer remain on the vaccination list). So, targetting death and hospitalisation directly is exactly the right thing to do. Once we get on a downwards trend that really should accelerate with vaccination.
My bet is on Door #2.
I’ve just watched the Boris press conference thingy with the NHS bod and the Army guy. You know, we all bitch and moan here about politics and fucking Brexit ad infinitum, ad nauseum, and everyone’s got dissenting opinions on fucking everything and we all piss each other off. But watching the NHS and Army guys standing there outlining their plans, which may yet all go tits up but let’s hope not, it struck me how lucky I am, we are, to live in this country.
Yes mistakes have been made throughout this pandemic. Hard decisions delayed. Stupid decisions taken too quickly. We have high death figures, hopefully there will be some reckoning there in the future. Why the borders were never closed is beyond me. A few months ago I thought we should let the virus rip - what an idiot I am.
But all that taken into account, if this vaccination scheme rolls out as outlined today, then that will be a fantastic achievement, to have the capacity and knowledge to do something so unprecedented. What a country. Let’s hope it works.
👍
1. What would you impeach him for exactly? We have already had what, is in effect, two show trials of impeachment over alleged Russian collusion and its follow on issues. So, what are you going to accuse him of this time? Subverting democracy? Ok, why - because he told his protestors to gather in Washington DC on Jan 6th and walk down Penn Avenue? Because he questioned the election result maybe and undermined faith in the electoral process? Ok, you could make a fairly similar argument against Al Gore in 2000 and for four years, the Democrats have been saying he is an illegitimate President who was controlled by Putin, so why don't we impeach Pelosi while we are at it? It feeds into a narrative of double standards, that you indict Trump for his actions but are quite happy to let other politicians get away scot-free with theirs because they are on your side / play the game.
2. It would kick-start a vicious cycle. If you think the Republican base would allow Trump to be pushed out of public life and not seek retribution at some point, then you have another thing coming. There are plenty of Republicans - and not all Trumpsters - who think that, for years and pre-dating Trump, the Republican leadership have been too soft in allowing the Democrats to ride roughshod over them when it comes to the electoral process. If you impeach Trump, and the Republicans win Congress in 2022 (which is entirely possible), there will be a strong demand from the base to launch impeachment proceedings against Biden launched, most likely over the Hunter Biden issue (the one where people said it was Russian-driven but where he is actually being investigated). Which then kicks off another cycle.
3. Trump is a symptom, not a driver, of the anger felt by many in the States and, by prosecuting him, you will pour fuel on the fire. Trump did not create the anger that is there, he harnessed it for his own ends. To many in the American population, when they look at Trump being attacked, they consider themselves under attack. And, to a large degree, they are right. The reality of Trump is it is not his actions that generate disdain - if you took his record, and said that Mitt Romney had been the author of his actions, many would suggest he did good things) - but the person. The reason why the political class don't like Trump is he is not one of them and doesn't play their game. All you will do by impeachment is, linking back to point 1, persuade many Americans that their voice doesn't count. There have already been suggestions a good number of GOP voters in Georgia didn't vote in the Senate race because they felt their vote didn't count - do you think that is a good thing? Do you think it's great that people believe their vote doesn't count, just because it helps your side win? What then do those people do afterwards?